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tonight the candidates deliver their final message. full team coverage with rachel maddow, alex wagner, stephanie ruhl. >> at the very end we find a tie. >> decision 2024 begins right now. for a brief moment admit it. you were hoping we would be hosting this on ice skates. we're not. but the prospect of us falling on our face is still as high as can be. sunday is supposed to be a day of rest but honestly, two days before this presidential election. hah. so here we are with less than 36 hours until the first polls

open on election day. i already have not slept for a week. i'm joined by joy reed. some of our best friends from here at msnbc are going to be joining us over the course of this special. in these final hour, the presidential and vice presidential candidates are racing across the country. making their final pitches to voters as we speak. former president trump is due on stage at any moment in macon, georgia. georgia tonight will be donald trump's third swing state in one day. earlier today he had rallies in

both pennsylvania and north carolina. kamala harris has spent her whole day in michigan. she stopped in to chat with voters at a waffles joint. and a black owned business, at a barber shop. tomorrow vice president harris has three rallies scheduled in pennsylvania while trump's campaign says he'll make four stops tomorrow ending with a rally in grand rapids washington. it is very much the final sprint. we all know that sprints are hard. and earlier today, trump was talking about a republican candidate that was from another state. wrong state. lots of different states, you can forgive a guy for having no

idea where he is. more than 75 million americans have already cast their ballots in this election. both campaigns still fighting for every last vote they can turn out. until the actual votes start coming in on tuesday. all we really have in terms of knowing what's going to happen in this race is polling. there's good reasons why you're hearing everyone this cycle. there's a number of different real reasons to think that. for one thing in the last the election cycle mainstream credible pollsters have had high profile misses. very high profile misses in terms of real world expectations in real races. a big question hanging around the poll this year for 2024 is whether pollsters have adjusted their models to adjust for those previous misses. whether they have adjusted

their models correctly. another reason polling has gotten the side eye, the increasing of politically motivated sort of bad faith actors who are producing things that technically can be called polls, but methodically speaking they're more like garbage. that said they call it a poll, if you can get enough people to postit, particularly on social media, to talk about it. maybe you can change the way people are perceiving the race, perceiving the momentum. perceiving the two campaigns. garbage polls trying to create an impression that their favorite candidate will win, that their favorite candidate has the momentum. the proliferation of those bad polls and the undeserved attention they've received particularly on social media. that's another reason why your kindest and smartest friends have been telling you this year, don't listen to the polls. it's a sound argument. that's it. we are still in a news

environment. in which there are good polls. and particularly wr-l in gold states there are pollsters. the reason why they get the gold standard designation is both because of their proven sound methodology but also because of their track record over time in that particular jurisdiction. the prototypical example of a gold standard poll is the iowa poll. done by anne selzer in iowa. the polls that she produces for the des moines register in iowa specifically the final iowa poll she does before each major election, her polls are known for their uncanny predictive accuracy. this is anne selzer's recent track record. what you see here, what her final poll the result would be in iowa. next to that is what the actual result was on election day. and as you can see, if you look

at the senate and presidential races, since 2012, her poll has accurately predicted the result within one or two percent. in races you have seen selzer as a living bulls eye. that's why lots of people, had strong reactions when the poll was posted last night. this is that poll. and it is a shock result. it shows kamala harris ahead of donald trump by three points in iowa. the reason is harris might be winning iowa. it's three points.

the iowa is a state where neither campaign is seen as a swing state. here she is with the lead. in addition to that top line lead. the polls internal numbers show dynamics in terms of women voters, of particularly older women voters that could again if they hold have really major implications beyond iowa. i mean the iowa polls shows that women who are political independence favor harris by nearly 30 points. women over the age of 65 support harris over trump by 35 points. actually look at this. this in some ways to me is even more shocking. with all voters over age 65, the iowa poll has harris plus

19 over trump. that's driven by her huge margin with women. if the democratic nominee is winning, voters over 65, full stock. we have a much different race than we thought. if that's happening in iowa there's no reason that it's not happening in other states. that is why people have freaked out about this one poll. this poll in particular because it is this pollster and she's got her track record and this is out of state where nobody saw it coming. joining me now is mrs. selzer. thank you so much for being with us. >> my pleasure. >> let me ask you first of all if i got any of that the wrong way around or if you see any of that differently than the way i layed it out for our audience. >> picture perfect.

>> okay. so you, obviously have a sterling reputation for your ability to poll iowa. you've been doing it for a long time. what is your top line take away from your final poll before election day? were you as surprised as everybody else by the broad strokes of what you've found. >> i don't see how anybody would look at those numbers and the history in iowa in the past eight, 12 years. and think that these numbers could have been foretold. we did see some of this movement toward harris in our september poll coming out of the june poll which still had joe biden at the top of the ticket. kamala harris joined the ticket and gained, picked up 14 points reducing that margin to just four points. so there was certainly some momentum there. we saw some enthusiasm there. but digging into the data, we've determined that it wasn't people switching positions. it was new people, perhaps a

bigger pool of people deciding to vote. and at that time, our definition of a likely voter was somebody who tell us they will definitely vote. the numbers were especially notable among older people, among women and among college graduates. these are all groups tilting toward harris. it seems there was a get off the bench moment and get in the game moment and that may have been triggered by kamala har reugs becoming the nominee. >> one of the internal dynamics reflected in your poll that i haven't heard discussed as much today is a significant movement it appears since september with men. the numbers are massive. women are huge for the harris campaign. trump still has a margin. a positive margin with men in

iowa. that margin shrunk significant lip. in terms of shift toward men where his numbers there seem to be weakening. >> well, it gets really tricky to hash things out at such a detail level. what i will say is the gender gap among women, the contest gap is 20 points among older women aged 65 and older. it's more than 2-1 among that group. that appears to be pushing it up. while men over all favor trump among men 65 and older. it's in fact, a harris lead. so i think there's something happening here and it's happening within that 65 and older age group. i was on a different talk show earlier today and one of the women says she's joined the 65

and older cohort and how she feels she's politically different from the people at the top end of that 65 and over cohort. i thought that's right. the cohort moves up the ladder you know. and ages in to the older group. so people have a stereo type that older people vote republican and in past cycles that's been true. but now we've got a new cohort joining from the past cycle. i think they are particularly sensitive to certain issues and potentially the six week abortion ban in iowa that was enacted and then came into force just this summer. after the june poll was taken with joe biden on the ticket. >> it's so interesting what you're talking about this dynamic with older voter. i want to ask you if that also, whether there's also something to say there about how likely these likely voters are to actually vote. i mean your poll finds people over 65 to be tilting toward

harris. with women overwhelmingly so. she's also doing well with women among younger voters. trump is doing better with the younger aged people. >> this is one of the things we track. because we talk to 800 voters. the full thousand has been allowed us to get the incident. how many of all iowan meet our criteria to be a likely voter. you can do that two different ways. you can say you've already voted or you will tell us you will definitely vote. among the age 65 and over group. that incidence is 93%. so out of 100 people in that age group we talked to, 93 said they had already voted or intended to vote. among the under 35 age group,

that incidence is just 62. so as i said, if you want a horse to ride on you want the older people because they show up and vote. >> iowa pollster selzer. thank you for the time you took to explain this to us. a double take when these numbers came out. getting your explanation of how this all came together is so invaluable to us. thank you so much. >> my pleasure. we'll say out of time when pollsters don't have a great name. because of how things have gone in recent years. i don't think anybody before donald trump today ever cast versions on selzer's post. this is just nicole feels like a sort of a fire cracker under the seat. like oh that's not supposed to

be there. >> so when you're on a campaign you have tracks. small number of campaigns oversee the tracks. the tracks are directional. so you know, this is having through, how are we moving directional. >> it's a tracking poll. >> it's usually the most reliable data you possess. other time public polls got pretty close. after 16, the public polls became something totally different. i don't think, and campaigns used to sort of check how close their tracks were. there's something that happened this year, i can't imagine the campaign, the campaigns view them in a lot of different ways. and let me just say, the best news possible in the cycle about polls, is for harris is for them to be tied, right. because your number one thing is you need every last human being who might vote to go. and to take everyone in the home to go vote who's eligible to as well. so it is a great thing for a campaign to have the polls tied. i'm not sure we'll know until after tuesday whether that was

ever true. because one there's no model first opts. two there's, no one changed the models after biden left and harris joined. nobody went back and said we modeled for two white men of the same vintage if you will. nobody changed the models. what you were setting up is no one has a filter for the things that someone has reliable models or intented to be. it's another norm, it used to be a norm that somebody as spired to have a poll that told the truth. that is another norm that has been annihilated. i was working for someone for whom her news was bad and i was working for someone for whom news was good. i've never work for somebody who's news did not bare out. >> you joked as you sat down here. we were talking about the iowa poll. i haven't heard anything about

this iowa poll. >> i was at a bar mitzvah where i was like, let me explain. what we've seen is all the polling has been the same. and nate has been, that the odds of all of this independently coming out the same is one in 9 trillion. which means we're hurting. what does hurting mean? there are layers of

methodology. it may be the race is tied or it might be it that we're just at the limitations of what we can know. the things about the polls is since we came out of the k's's we want to know the future but we can't. there's a whole lot of people that have rushed in with tarot cards and fundamentally we're still in that spot. i would love to know who's going win the election and we don't know because the future actually is uncertain. >> the thing i've also been on the good and bad end shall we call them on the anne selzer poles. what she does that's a little different from other spol centers is what makes her i think more accurate is she bets on what she thinks the electoral is going to be and not what the electorate was. there's a lot of polls that are based on this tony coal's

points about postups. people who are basing polls, women who coming out of the wood works who are republicans, who are young, who have never voted before. we'll see if this bares out. i don't think the campaign is baring on harris. they have struggled where they've been trying to make up gains with white voters, older white voters as we know well because you're thinking about pennsylvania where she might be better with those groups. >> i don't know if that distills that even more. the fact that there hasn't been. there's been zero ground game from either campaign.

there's been shows that whatever is happening in. it's organic. >> i think i agree with you. the reality is that a lot of people who were polling in 2016 and missed trump. then reconfigured their likely model to lean in the direction of adding trump voters because they were afraid of having been wrong in 2016 that i think you saw the likely voters drift right. and you have the entrepreneurial that are selling protrump left. and what i like is that she brought up abortion. she talked about older voters

including older white voters. this is like a perfect microcosm of what white america is thinking after three very big things that you can't factor into any poll. january 6th which is this is the first presidential election. in which we're litigating january 6th. that has not been tested. you cannot poll it. the second thing is donald trump being indicted. there's no way to really understand as a pollster how do i factor in how people might react to the idea of an indicted person. >> indicted and convicted. >> and convicted. he's going to be sentenced in a couple of weeks. abortion is the x factor in 2022. the first time that voters had a chance to react. their reaction has been strongly negative and actually angry. that isn't changing the last thing i will say here is she mentioned older voters. i quickly looked up the age of

boomers. boomers were born 1946 to 64. meaning they were born before there was a rowe and they lost rowe in their lifetime. they have children and grandchildren. it shouldn't shock anybody people are reacting to the loss of row e. it changes everything. if pollsters aren't taking that into account, don't pay attention to them. >> with iowa, democratic activists reacted to this poll by saying we don't think kamala harris is going to win iowa. if these numbers are a portrait of the electoral. then maybe we're going to win back some of their congressional seats in iowa. >> and they have two really tight races. >> that tells them what they're going to do in the midwest. i feel good about the midwest after i saw this. >> and we've been sleeping on

men. >> hey everybody. >> nobody is topping that. we're done. >> i'm done. >> i don't think we know how to cover men's views on abortion. i have met men who have shown me pictures of their grand babies with tears in their eyes and i say. she's beautiful. and they say, all i can think about is if somebody happened to my daughter. i don't think pollsters have the first clue about how to ask men about that. i think it's totally invisible until tuesday night. >> it's a black box in the projections of how this is going to go. we have a lot to get to tonight. we're going to put this iowa poll into the context of the other good quality polls that have been coming up. like the big nbc poll coming up. david from the campaign is on deck. we have a lot to get to. stay with us.

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while the new shock result iowa poll from pollster anne selzer has been blowing up everybody's news feed. it is just one poll and we should put it into context of what's going on more broadly in the polling as we're getting in the final polling before election day including the big new poll from nbc news today. the top line of that one is that it's a tie. 49 for harris, 49 for trump. even as the nbc shows the numbers. for one, black voters in the nbc poll support harris by a margin of 87% to 9%. in context, that's a 3-point larger margin with black voters than biden won in 2020.

even though so much recent conversation has focused on having a slide on black voters she's doing better with black voters than biden did. 34 points all together, women supporting harris by 16. men supporting trump by 18. perhaps that is not surprising on issues kamala harris having a 20 point lead over trump on the issue of abortion in the nbc poll. but there's a lot more here. this is just part of the polling landscape as we do get our final look before actual votes start to come in from actual voters on tuesday. let's bring in our friend steve cornaky who was made with this. with so much energy and stamina to spare. we're looking at you at the top of the mountain right now, my friend. >> here we are rachel. when it comes to the polling i think the safest thing to say is there are some extremely mixed signals that are coming in. you just talked about iowa obviously. a state donald trump won by nearly 10 points the last two elections. now at least in that des moines

register poll having having harris slightly ahead. donald trump frankly better positioned nationally than he finished in 2020 or 2016. and frankly than he polled in either one of those elections too. our poll has it tied. other national polls have it very much in this range of a tied race. maybe harris by one or two. maybe trump by one or two. that's a little different and it leaves open lots of questions about what's going on in the battleground states and perhaps outside of the battleground state. looking inside the poll, there's the question of enthusiasm which always gets the variable of turn out. it is at 77% in our poll. you can see that is down a little bit from 2020, we had historic high turn out in 2020. 160 million voters. this number two when you look inside the lowest levels of

high interest are coming from latino voters. it could also be trouble for donald trump because polling has shown previously him expanding support with nonwaoeut voters. if he's starting to lose support that could mean trouble for his campaign. the climate we're seeing here is what we've seen the whole election. harris' best advantage by far on the issue of abortion, 20 points over trump on that. trump here with the advantage on inflation and cost of living. the biggest trump advantage is the border and immigration. harris leading by 16 with women. if that's what you get. something like that. that's a gender gap of 34 points. the previous high in history

was 24 points. this would absolutely shatter the gender gap. you have an incumbent administration that harris is a part of. joe biden's approval rate is going to clock in at 41%. and that low approval rate is voters ready to get biden out . and a former president seeking to be future president, retrospectively, do you trust them. when donald trump was president. after leaving office it has ticked up a little bit for him. will that be enough to put him over the top. we talk all about the difference between early election day voting, disparities we're finding.

others are finding it too. democrats you can expect when the vote goes out on tuesday night. the election day vote becomes a question of how much of a republican advantage when the people who vote on election day when their votes start to get tabulated. now we get away from the national poll to the battleground. this is our running average. we've been keeping this the entire summer and fall of the quality polls and all of the battleground states. a couple of things jump out here. obviously they're all close. you don't see a margin of greater than 1.9 points. you do see a bit of a north- south divide. we've seen this lately in the polling. trump's leads here. very small but arizona, georgia, north carolina, basically sun belt states. harris best performance is in here. wisconsin 1.4. is .8 in michigan. these are the northern tier states. three points in pennsylvania. a bit of a north-south divide. if that holds, if that cements that is ultimately good news

for harris because michigan plus pennsylvania plus wisconsin if there are no surprises outside of the battleground, would for harris equal 270 electoral votes. if the action really is limited to the battleground, donald trump has to win one of those three northern tier battleground states where our averages continue to show harris with slight, slight leads in those states. but that gets to the question, if there are no surprises, outside of the core 7 battleground states that we have talked over and other over about. that's what the des moines poll gets to. you talk to anne selzer one of the questions is does this spill over to other states? does this reflect something if this is what's happening in iowa that might be happening in other states. maybe states we haven't been talking about. maybe some of the other battleground states. the issue of abortion

exceptionally potent in iowa because that six week ban went into effect this summer. millions of dollars in spending. is this more of a state specific effect that is limited more to iowa. if this is something haás happening in iowa. one thing to keep in mind as we go over here. this is going to start lighting up on tuesday with our results. iowa on tuesday, i just want to show you, the history here going back. remember this is an obama-trump state. this is one of the most extreme obama to trump. you have voters that were comfortable voting democratic. huge groups that switched to trump. there's more obama to trump states. that would be iowa's political cousin right across the mississippi river wisconsin.

this has the second most obama trump counties in the country and demographically these are extremely similar states. large, white populations. rural white populations. you can go back and find german decent is very common among people. very common demographic people. we have not forthe most part seeing in wisconsin the kind of pollings that we just saw in that new iowa poll today. so that's one thing to keep in mind. if it potentially could be a state specific thing. but if it's not, if it's spilling over, in is a place where you would expect to see it on tuesday night. because of those demographic similarities. as we said there's that question of look, so much of the polling attention, the budgets for polling have been directed to the seven battleground states. is there actually something going on in iowa. or was there something going on

that was undetected and could that be happening some where. a lot of polls are going to close in new hampshire and this was a state again not in the battleground. biden won by 7. the trump folks think this thing is a lot closer than most people thought. they sent j.d. vance there today. the margin was just 3,000 votes between those candidates so this is an early test i think for me on tuesday night. we potentially misunderstood the nonbattleground states. if we're seeing some kind of surprise in new hampshire i think that would obviously be a huge development. >> interesting too as far as trump's decision to spend campaign time in virginia. raising the question on to whether or not they think that's on the map as well. just the beginning of what is going to be a beautiful relationship over these next many hours. steve, thank you. we'll get back to you later on tonight. up next, here, we're going to be speaking to david pruft.

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make no mission take, we make no mistake, we will win. >> we will win. >> we will win. >> and we will win.

>> we will win. we will win. >> and we will win. >> in the closing days and hours of the campaign, that phrase we will win has become a newly energized theme of kamala harris speech. do they have data driven information to feel that optimistic. we have exactly the person to ask. we have senior advisor david truft. we know you have things to do. >> yeah. >> by any chance have you gotten any polling in iowa. how do you feel about that? >> well i have the deepest respect for anne selzer. but i think at the end of the day the question is is she camping something from a composition of the electoral. maybe our support score, are we

going to do more than with our data. where we really have to have a great election day. but late deciders in our data are choosing kamala harris. i want to suggest by 9010 but in a close race if they're choosing 55-45 or 60-40 that's a great thing. >> is there anything that you're seeing that suggests that the laser like focus on those seven states has been too tight and there ought to be other states that are in play. we are seeing j.d. vance going to new hampshire. we're seeing trump going to virginia. do you think that the seven states are the seven states? >> yeah, because when i go into presidential campaigns you can't chase the 150th. trump is not going to battleground states because he's not drawing good crowds in

the battleground state. that bothers him. trump is gallanting around because you see there's empty seats. people are leaving, the act seems a little stale. >> when you talk about how razor thin margins are. everything matters. given the fact abortion is moving people, women, older women in iowa and elsewhere. there are two ballot tpheurpbtives in states where they really matter. they all matter. but trump has a 1.9% lead that's his largest lead. there is constitutional, about referendum to .3%. there's a ballot measure for a state, state constitutional right for pwoár that's going to be on the ballot. how are you guys thinking of those ballot initiatives as

maybe affecting turn out. maybe helping your candidate. how do you calculate that? >> i think in arizona it's clear that that ballot initiative is going to win and strongly. so there's a huge pool of voters that currently might not be voting for kamala harris who are going to vote for that initiative. so we're trying to talk to them. there's no doubt that abortion is going to drive a lot of vote in this race and women's health care generally. i think that's been overlooked because some polls suggest it might be fading. in our research it's going to drive participation, volunteerism, it already is. and turn out and ultimate vote. so, you look at arizona. that could pass by 15, 20 points. so it gives us a lot of voters to go talk to who might currently not be voting for kamala harris. by the way. arizona is going to be very close. i know polls say 1.9 but we really have closed well in the

early vote there. but arizona is in a kind of era where they just have close races. like georgia and i think that's what we're going to see again on tuesday. >> good to see you david. you have a big job. as the saying goes you could have been any where in the world tonight but you're here with us. we appreciate that. and we just saw walk through numbers where the recall memory approval of donald trump. the idea of his presidency is higher than the actual american public ever felt about his presidency during it. when you look at that, and this idea of 46 being projected. do you see that. do you see him above the 46 ceiling if he is at 48? >> we've always believed his ceiling was going to be a little higher this time. so 48, 48-1/2% that is not 50.

and we've always believed we have a better ability to get to 50. and we're closing well. that matters in a presidential campaign i can't overstate how important it is. it helps with turn out. but it also for those 4 to 5% of people who have not decided who to vote. if you're closing well you're going to win more of them. when a race might be 48-48 a week out. you're winning more of those race deciders you would get to 50. the last seven days. presidential campaign, no one has closed this poorly in my view presidential campaign history. >> trump the worse. >> he's reminding every voter who has concerns about him, why they should have concerns. and we're picking that up in our both qualitative and quantitative research. >> we have questions for you on

that exact point. can you stick with us. >> yes. >> we'll be right back.

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words. what impact if any do you hear? >> they've had a big impact. this is part of how he's closed so poorly. seven nights ago like 16 blocks from here. it's his closing event. it's almost like your presidential campaign announce. instead it caused him hugely. the puerto rico community is huge in battleground states. we've seen huge energy there. we could see a switch of 10, 20% there. i think the kelly comments are consistent with what's being a problem for trump this whole time. so we've tried to make the argument. this is even more dangerous than the first time. he's more unstable. he's more unhinged. he wants unchecked power. and the people who tried to stop him last time, none of them are around. it's marjory taylor green, matt

gaetz and loomer. it's adding to people's concerns. there are some people who give him ail prove of his first term who are still not going to vote for him because they think this is just to dangerous. so those have been two major impacks. even today, we got all breaking news on our phone of him two days out from presidential election. saying he wished he had never left. wish he had a sit in in the oval office. okay and for these voters that still haven't decided that's the exact kind of character and behavior they don't want a rerun of. >> yeah. i have a question about the cannibalization of the vote. we know that donald trump previously, he described early voting as inherently fraudulous. they have of coursely changed that. that has happened all across the country. we've seen huge early voting

numbers for republicans. how much of that has cannibalized? >> a huge percentage of it. to be clear. if someone was going to vote on voting day, that diminishes the number of votes you have to go to on election day. but it's not additive. so what we're seeing is they're bringing forward their vote. and we've always believed that donald trump's ceiling was a little bit higher but lower than ours. and we also believed we were going to have to do a pretty tremendous job of bringing out sporadic voters. and we don't see that. >> what can elon musk in the back of seat beltless vans can do for you. >> it can give you a half a point or a point. we've seen the numbers that we put out. we're hitting every door we need to hit. in the places you're still

doing persuasion we're not running into trump or musk people. >> harris campaign senior advisor. don't go to sleep. go back to work. we'll see you soon. >> never. >> thank you. >> coming up we will take a look inside the heavily fortified tabulation center in phoenix arizona. ballots are now being prepped for counting. we will also be introducing a brand new msnbc contributor. that's all coming up, stay with us. ♪febreze♪ love your plug-ins but wish you had more scent control? introducing the new febreze plug scent booster.

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welcome back to our special coverage on election eve eve. we are super happy to have you with us and we are hunkering down here at msnbc headquarters in new york with we have snacks, we have coffee, we have sleeping bags under our desks. we have things that come in packages that are supposed to substitute for showers, but they don't read we are preparing to bring you continuous coverage of the presidential election as long as it takes, we do not tire, we are not afraid. tomorrow, you can expect wall- to-wall coverage of the final full day of the campaign, both during the day and during prime time. we will have our full lineup

tomorrow night with all your regularly scheduled posts. i will be here at 9:00 eastern. on tuesday, that is election day, our special coverage starts at 6:00 p.m. eastern which is one hour before polls start to close and we start to get the first results. we expect a long, long night as accounting continues across the country, particularly in the swing state of arizona, were most ballots are cast by mail. in maricopa county, the most populous county in arizona, there are some the races on the ballot in this particular election that the ballot is two pages long, which means it will take that much longer to tabulate the boat while the whole country watches and wait for it also in maricopa county this year is is six foot tall barbed wire fence around the tabulation center in phoenix. local officials physically fortifying the election center with panic buttons and drones and rooftop snipers. truly preparing for the worst. joining us now from phoenix is nbc news correspondent lives

writes, who is inside the fortress, inside the maricopa county tabulation election center. behind her, election officials are doing what is called adjudication of the ballots, which means they are checking for any potential problems before the ballots are processed for tabulation. it lives, it's great to have you with us, tell us what you have been seeing and what is going on there. >> hey, rachel, we made it inside. it took a lot of layers of security, and i am sure you remember this view very well from 2020. we are looking inside the ballot processing center right now, and what is happening right here is two pairs of election workers, one republican, one democrat, they work together to go over any ballot irregularities, and they come to a consensus, and we are told that actually they become friends through this process. it is a nice snapshot of america but over here right now, they're counting these wallets. rachel, so interesting, anyone around the world right now can watch on the lives what is

happening in this room. since 2020, they have added even more cameras and live streams, as you can watch it literally the step-by-step process of how it works. all of that in this effort for transparency here to try to counter any more claims of election fraud heading into tuesday, knowing that it could take several days until we get results, and just to add to this idea of a fortress year, i mean, just getting in video of two layers of fencing, a concrete barrier, multiple steps to call in, to get inside, to show your i.d. if you come and look where we are right now, this is where we entered and there is magnetic security areas that you have to go through, they have the sheriff's department here going for your bags. election officials have spent $10 million over the past four years to make this place what they are calling the safest place to be in arizona on election night. lives, in terms of the

officials you're talking to, the security folks, the people there doing the work that needs to be done, what is the morale like, what are people's attitudes like? obviously, it is a little unnerving for us looking from the outside, knowing what they had to do for security, but they also have a job to do, it is an important job, and in many cases it is a very joyful job, it is a civic duty and it is something the country needs. what are people feeling about this task ahead? >> yeah, we have been told that they definitely had some longtime election workers who said, you know what, i can't do it this year, and they decided not to do it because a lot of the threats that they received, and there have also been some folks -- essentially, it seems like hazard pay, they have increased some of the people's pay to make people come and feel like they want to be here at work for the election, because of the fact that so many of these workers received so many threats for so long. some of the officials have told us that over the past year, the threats have subsided, but they are expecting them to ramp up yet again come tuesday. >> nbc news correspondent lives, great to have you there,

for talking to people there, really helpful. joy reid is standing by with arizona's top election official. >> thank you very much, rachel. joining us now is democratic arizona secretary of state adrian fontes. mr. fontes, thank you so much for being here. let's start on the question of security. we do know that back in 2020 after fox called arizona for joe biden, alex jones and others showed up at the maricopa county election center. some of the people who showed up with him were jacob chancey, who we later saw as part of those who sacked the hospital, he has been sentenced for that. so, there has been a lot of drama and a lot of lies surrounding vote counts in arizona. talk about how your thinking about the security situation going into this election. >> well, first, joy, thanks for having me. you know, security has got to

be top of mind for everyone, but that doesn't mean we lose sight of the fundamentals. we still have an election to run, but it is a little bit of a new paradigm we are existing in. so, taking care of our workers, taking care of our employees, taking care of all of the folks who are maybe just here for a week or a couple of days or a couple of months to help us out, and also making sure that our voters stay safe, all have become facets of what we have done. and so, we have got to stay focused on the fundamentals. at the end of the day, we will be delivering a quality election as arizona always has done. again, in spite of the lives and conspiracies and misappropriation of the truth, we have done a pretty darn good job here in arizona, so we are going to keep doing that, but we also have these other things that we have to focus on, just to make sure that our people are safe. >> just this thursday, donald trump set of arizona, the only thing that can stop us is [ inaudible ] point . he is already sort of setting up his

followers to believe that there is some issue going on in your state. we call that very comical, but very serious pretend audit of your states results afterwards. as secretary of state, it is part of your mission to try to get people to trust elections, to believe them when they happen, to believe the results are real. what is the process like of trying to walk people back from this lack of trust elections in your state? >> well, first and foremost, we have got to understand that what we are going through over the last several years here in the united states of america is a slow rolling civics lesson. we had some folks who raised a lot of doubts, told a lot of lies, capitalized on sort of the take it for granted attitude that americans had towards elections. we just didn't know the process that well. and through the course of answering these questions, addressing the lives, and attacking the conspiracy theories, we have slowly but surely brought folks into understanding these processes better, and that part of it

must continue. we have to continue to tell the truth, answer the legitimate questions, because some people still don't understand our process completely, and that is okay. we are happy to explain it. but when people are lying, particularly elected officials and candidates, when those folks lie about the process, knowing better, because all of them do know better, that is the biggest problem we have. >> and the lives around voting in the u.s. on the republican side tend to revolve around this lie that noncitizens are voting. and arizona is a state that obviously has a large latino population, an american-born latino population, but suspicion often flows to places that have large black or latino populations like your state. more than 2 million people have already voted in arizona, which is great, lots of early voting participation, but you also had a lawsuit in which he lost a part of a case, in which they are demanding to see part of your voter rolls to force the state to prove that noncitizens are not voting. talk a little bit about that

case and where it goes from here. >> well, first and foremost, we are appealing that case, because this is a public safety issue as much as anything else. we do not want a bunch of extremists out there, pounding on people's doors, and demanding that they turn over identification, just because somebody in another part of the country thinks that noncitizens are voting in arizona, which by the way, is very very rare. in fact, it is vanishingly rare that those sorts of things happen. first that a noncitizen might register, and even more rare that a vote gets cast. it is not a perfect system, but what we are doing right now is looking at a state and arizona where we have a bifurcated system that is very different from the rest of the united states of america. and every other state in the union, his signature on an affidavit under penalty of perjury is enough to get you to vote, that is the proof of citizenship that every american gives us. in arizona, however, in order to vote for all of the races

outside the federal ballot, governor all the way down through judges, et cetera, you have got to show documented proof of citizenship, but we didn't start doing that until 2004. the systems have never been fully supported by the legislature or any of the administrators. it is a very collocated way that we do things, issuing ballots, and we don't see that problem anywhere else in the united states of america. so, we have got to get it together on that aspect, but as far as the rest of it goes, we are in great shape, and again, i must repeat, the issue of noncitizen voting is in existence, but it is vanishingly rare, and no one has ever seen any more than one or two, and none of it has ever had an impact on outcome, so that is another one of the lives we have got to get past. >> one last question, and of course, one of the other aspects or factors in people's claims of not trusting

elections is the time it can take to actually physically count the votes, which we know has to be done, it is human beings doing it, it takes time. i'm looking at an estimate here that says 10 to 14 days potentially for arizona to get that result in. can you confirm that that is the timeline we are looking at or how long should we expect to wait to know who has definitively won arizona? >> yeah, joy, you hit it on the head. 10 to 13 days, that's how it has always been. if you look back, arizona has a ways been about 10 to 13 days. here's the thing, when for example john mccain was winning by 25 points, you guys could call the race on the night of, so everybody thought it was over, but we were still waiting for official numbers for 10 to 13 days. now, we have got tighter margins, we have that much more competitive politics here in arizona, so that 10 to 13 days can be awfully, awfully sort of grinding on folks when they want to know the results right now, but that doesn't mean that we won't get projections much, much sooner. that is up to y'all in the media, that is not our job.

our job is to get official results out that are accurate, and that is what we are going to do, and it is going to take about 10 to 13 days. >> a note for our audience that president joe biden won arizona by just over 10,000 votes in 2020 and nbc projected arizona for biden nine days after the election. that's what you should be in for, everybody. arizona secretary of state adrian fontes, thank you so much. rachel? >> i will say, arizona is lucky to have a person in that job who is as clear a communicator as he is, given the national implications of clear election related communication coming out of arizona. adrian fontes, somebody to watch, i think, in terms of his future career. steve, we just had the secretary of state from arizona confirm that ms. -- official results in arizona are expected within 10 to 13 days, they say with larger margins. maybe the media companies will be able to project things earlier than that, that is not

their concern. does that jive with the way you're thinking about arizona, and indeed, how should we set our expectations in terms of what we are going to know on election night restaurant >> i think arizona is the state, if the electoral college math is depending on arizona, and add to that nevada, one of those two states, it is going to be a while. it is fairly similar in nevada, too, just in terms of it is a ton of mail-in ballots that they do not all get counted on election night or the day after, it becomes a days long process. the count is very close, if there is a possibility of the result changing as the days of subsequent mail and voting counting take place, those states won't be called. they are crucial to the map, we will be waiting on them like last time around. that is the long game scenario, i think. in the other battleground states, the five eastern battleground states, a bit of a different story potentially from 2020. let's take you through tuesday

night. at 7:00 eastern time, the polls are going to close in georgia. this will be the first battleground state where we start getting results, and we expect we will get a lot of results. in georgia, they can preprocess the mail ballots, the absentee ballots, those can be preprocessed. some states have to wait until the polls close, it is a cumbersome process of verifying signatures, that can all be done ahead of time in georgia, and there is a ton of early, in person voting, which is relatively easy to tabulate, too. there are also going to be votes and wait until election day to vote, expect that to come in throughout the night, too. but the bottom line is you should have the vast majority of the vote counted in georgia sometime late at night into the very, very early hours of wednesday morning. remember, georgia is one of those states in 2020, it took so long because they had a flood of mail-in ballots. mellon voting is down 75% in georgia, just mechanically going to be much easier. probably. to tabulate those results in georgia. go to north carolina, that is our second battleground poll closing at 7:30 eastern, very

similar here. of the mail voting that takes place, that is down, too, the mailing voting and absentee to come fast and furious, not long after those polls close at 7:30. the same day vote will then follow that. we showed you earlier if you were watching, we expect the same day vote in recoleta and a lot of other places to favor trunk, to favor the republicans, so put that on your radar right now in north carolina. likely, what we expect is the democrats will get their best numbers with the big early returns, then the question becomes can trump erase that if the democrats are ahead with the same day voting? 7:00 hour, you're getting those two. i was get pennsylvania for one second and quickly take you through the other two midwest states. michigan is a state that has massive changes to its procedures. this is a state that took a long time because of the clog of mailing voting in 2020. now, brand-new from michigan, this idea of preprocessing

mellon votes. again, all that administrative work to get the ballot ready to be counted. they are already doing that in most places in michigan, that is a big change from 2020. so is the fact that michigan now, unlike 2020, they have early, in person voting, and tons of people there, we received from the stats, are taking advantage of it. so, that combination of preprocessing, of reduced mailing voting, and that rise of early in person voting, we could have a much clearer picture of michigan on election night then we have had before. again, most of michigan is going to close at 8:00 p.m. there are four counties on the fringes of the u.p. that stay open until 9:00 p.m. eastern. we will have results in the 8:00 hour, a lot of them. wisconsin, this could be very dramatic in the early hours of wednesday, the wee hours of wednesday. this is how it has played out a couple of elections now. just to explain it again, in wisconsin, they have got something that resembles early in person voting, but it is not

technically call that, we don't have to get into that. but basically, folks who are voting early in person or who are voting absentee, there are some cities in wisconsin where they take those votes and they count them at the end of the night in one location, and then all of those votes get released, and where that happens most dramatically, we will be talking about this as the results come in tuesday, is the city of milwaukee. all of the votes cast before election day are counted after everything else is counted. this usually happens at 2:00 or 3:00 in the morning, maybe a little earlier if they are quicker, then it all gets reported out. huge democratic city, biggest city in wisconsin. we have seen recent elections, republicans leading late, and having that absentee early vote released from milwaukee, putting the democrats ahead. that happened with the joe biden. it was the moment in 2020 when i realized biden had shifted to the advantageous position over trump. it was when trump had about a 20,000 vote lead in wisconsin

at about 4:00 in the morning. that milwaukee batch came in, biden went ahead. i realized then biden was probably going to win milwaukee. it is close everywhere else in wisconsin, we are going to be waiting on that, and that is going to be a very significant moment in that election. i left pennsylvania because pennsylvania is the biggest wild card when it comes to the timing of this. remember, in 2020, it was pennsylvania that ultimately resulted in the election being called about 11:30 in the morning saturday. it was because pennsylvania, for the first time, covid emergency in 2020, did vote by mail, and they were flooded with vote by mail. with vote by mail. >> [ inaudible ] that is the broad contour of it. the key, though, again, pennsylvania did not change its laws. part of the problem in 2020, all those mail in votes, they had to wait until election day to start going through them administratively.

it just took forever. didn't change the law, but again, with the mail-in voting coming way down this year, that is going to be a lot less to process for these counties. they have got more expense, they have had a few elections since 2020 doing it. and there are procedures in some of these big counties now to continue counting round-the- clock, not close down shop for the night. we saw that happen a bit in 2022. so, the potential exists in pennsylvania to be significantly faster than 2020, but as i say, it is a huge wild card. because with no changes in these laws actually, you're just kind of depending on the mechanics being smoother and maybe the folks running the is to have a little bit more experience, so we will see on pennsylvania. obviously, if we are waiting on that, that would be a huge piece of the electoral puzzle. >> one follow-up for you on this, steve, when you talk about the mechanics and the different procedures that have been put in place, particularly ones that have changed since 2020, are there any of these

real crucial jurisdictions that have really parted races, that we are going to be watching really carefully, where you feel like it it's a real, inexplicable decisions in terms of new procedures or ways they're going to handle the vote that you are just watching for as a potential bottleneck? are there places where the technocratic way they are approaching the count is something that is keeping you up at night? >> there are a couple of things that were giving concern to some election officials that are being held up by right now that i think could have been wildcards in this there is a procedure in north carolina, basically, about the early in person voting that may have that delay. i'm talking 15, 30 minutes, but there is a change that i think is good in pennsylvania. no big changes, but one in terms of just the public knowing what is going on in pennsylvania. at midnight on election night, even if there are all these uncounted mail-in votes, they have to tell you now, these counties do, how many total mail-in votes they have, so we will know at midnight, if this all goes to plan, we will know what the universe is beyond

that of mail-in votes to be counted. that was a bit of a mystery as the whole process played out in 2020. from a transparency standpoint, if that is what we end up seeing, we will have a little bit of clarity, even if we don't have the votes in pennsylvania. x fascinating, very helpful, steve, thank you very much. big splint and polling, fascinating split on the issue of the economy, what that might mean for tuesday's election. we have three campaign veterans to help us explain it. we have much more ahead tonight in the special coverage, stay with us. >> [ music ] >> reporter:

in the final nbc news national poll before the election on tuesday, it is a dead tie, 49-49.

part of what is bullying vice president harris and her supporters from the pole is the internal numbers. democratic enthusiasm in that poll is high and rising. on the issue of who voters trust on the issue of abortion, harris has a 20 point lead over trump. nbc also asked voters a couple questions on the economy, and answers were interesting because they were split. when asked generically is better on the economy, trump has a 10 point advantage over harris, but on the question of who will better look out for the middle class, it is harris who comes out 51-42. a nine point spread. i want to bring into the conversation [ inaudible ], all three of them veterans of political parties and campaigns. they will be here on election night as well. we are calling them our political insiders, because it makes them sound like they're giving you secret knowledge. stephanie ruhle is standing by with them right now. over to you. >> thank you, rachel. simone, let's look at these numbers, not as an economist,

as an insider. anecdotally, we know that republicans traditionally pull better, trump has pulled better on the economy. it is the first time nbc asked the question, who is looking out for the middle class? we see kamala harris come out ahead, what does that tell you? >> all these numbers really tell me that the advertising and the communication strategy and the strategic direction that the campaign has employed, it has worked. coming out of the gate, vice president harris, she talked about her economic message, the policies that she dropped were about the issues that are most directly concerning americans at this point. housing, prices at the grocery store, she is speaking directly to their issues. when it comes to the middle class, relentlessly, over and over and over, telling her story. sometimes she is not for being slow on message, that is what she is supposed to do. donald trump is not the candidate i would ever want to work for in my past life, it is too erratic, too uncertain. [ inaudible ] he would go like

this and pick up his yellow pad. at least i know bernie sanders has been saying the same thing since before i have been alive on the economy. because of vice president harris is on message, if you look at the ads that the campaign is running in the battleground states disproportionately, the ads were bio ads, i.e. introducing her. and later on, there was some trump -- these trump ads where she is distinguishing herself, contrast. people call those negative ads, the attack ads, but it is just donald trump's own words. and the majority of the ads have been about her policy, the economy, the messaging, what she is going to do. do not discount the impact of people seeing those ads. >> let's stay with introducing her. in the first couple of months, we kept hearing we don't know what she can run, we don't know what she can operate. and donald trump, well i can say he is a fellow businessman and talk about his bankruptcies, they say we don't know what she can operate. think about the last six weeks. kamala harris has run a basically flawless campaign.

what is a campaign, it is a business and she is the ceo. and we're seeing donald trump, day after day, week after week, not just go off message, but really come unglued. how much of an impact is that having, specifically with nikki haley -type voters? >> well, he came unglued because she was together. she had her-ish together, and he didn't expect that, which is why in the beginning, he pined so openly for joe biden, because he knew -- i mean, donald trump is nothing if not sensitive to the players on the chessboard. and when there is a player on the chessboard that he doesn't want to deal with, he wants it off the board. he wanted her off the board, which is why if you look back at all those narratives, what she did, to simone's point, is she hit the ground running, and she had an assist, and the assist was suddenly, a half 1 million people getting on is zoom call and raising her

seven, eight, $9 million. another half 1 million people getting on is zoom call, although this time it was white women, first it was black women, that it was white women. and you're sitting there going, holed up, white women? because in '16, white women weren't buying the fema president thing. they do not elect one when they had one. she from the very beginning began to change the narrative and the thinking and that is something that scared donald trump. next there is another assist, the economy. what has been happening over the last six months customer inflation is going, interest rates cut. donald trump was winning with immigration and the economy is a dumpster fire. well, the economy might not be perfect for you, but it is certainly not a dumpster. >> that was not a plus for her in the beginning. all that stuff was happening and it was schooling and the numbers were getting better, and everybody else was screaming, look at the numbers, they're so much better. and the voters are like, yeah, but i don't know who she is, i

want to know more about her. and to your point, simone, she started that narrative story, that narrative journey, and as she grew that narrative journey, guess what else happened? she connected it to the economy. she started talking about an opportunity economy, she started talking about tax breaks for the middle class. she started talking about workers. she tied healthcare to the economy. in a way that mothers looked at and said, oh, okay, tell me more. >> expanding the child tax credit. >> [ inaudible ] that is the biggest difference between the campaign joe biden was running and the campaign kamala harris is running. her campaign doesn't actually ever speak to the current -- the current greatness, if you will, of the economy, which is very good. joe biden did this, okay? but her campaign speaks to the concerns that people have about the work that has yet to be addressed. joe biden talked about in the very beginning, build back

better. he built back, she is talking about the better, and that is the difference. >> you are a former lawmaker, watching all of this. not just donald trump, but this group of maga donors, bigger donors than we ever have seen, the likes of elon musk, who is campaigning more and harder than any businessperson, who might end up with an official or unofficial role in a donald trump administration. what you think about all this and what are people telling you? >> i think it is really scary territory. we have some billionaires in this country, and if you look at the top 10 donors to donald trump, they have given over $1 billion to him. >> top five. >> yeah, and i was not counting how much more musk has spent. musk is in pennsylvania. he thinks because he can do rockets and electric cars, that he can figure out how to get people to vote. but he has got a hard assignment, because the people he is trying to get to vote are low propensity voters, their people that don't vote all the

time. in fact, this breaux thing they have done, let's get the young men, the reason they are pros is because they don't care about voting. they're really hard to get to the voting place. you know the one thing, talking to my friends, i have got a lot of friends running, jon tester and sherrod brown and bob casey, we all got elected at the same time. these are dear friends of mine and i talked to all of them. at one of the things that is really helping her at this point is the low propensity voters, the feels voters, they make up their mind at the end, you know, in matters whether they like you. and you know what? my friends that i know, my acquaintances that are voting for trunk, they always start out by saying i can't stand the guy, but he is going to be good for my tax break. so, i don't think america likes this guy. and when you're in the privacy of a voting booth and you think of the things he says and the things he does in the chaos

around him, that is the other thing she has done in this campaign so beautifully. she is now, according to the nbc poll, the candidate that represents change, and i think most americans don't want another four years of that not, lying jerk in the white house. >> thank you so much. rachel, i'm going to send it back to you. >> thank you, steph. o'donnell, talking about this idea about the way the campaign is closing how voters are feeling, how that might affect low propensity votersre at satu night live last night for kamala harris's surprise. >> i mentioned it on twitter. >> what was it like and how are you feeling on that? >> it goes to this, though, because saturday night live audience does include low propensity voters. it does include young, low propensity voters. so, the poll i have witnessed

more than once, which is to say a presidential candidate in studio for snl, and i have friends of mine working there from the beginning, so i have been hanging around there a long time. the word was out there that she is going to be there, but i know that is never true until it is true. there are all sorts of things that can happen that could change that right up until the very last minute, and so, when we were going up in the elevator, the fact that it was packed with the uniformed secret service officers, the ones who look like a s.w.a.t. team with the badges and everything, then we had to get wanted by them before going on the ninth floor over into the conference room where a lot of us watch it, with all of that anticipation and expectation, and by the time you get through the secret service, you know what is going to happen, what happened in that studio when audience actually saw her was

the single biggest emotional surge that i have felt in that room ever. and that includes the rolling stones in the 1970s. it was really something. and what i would attribute it to is the fact that we have actually had a trump presidency. and this is the only person who is standing between you and another one of those sprint and so, as big as the stakes were before, when hillary clinton and others were running against this guy, this is the one where everybody in that room knows it cannot be more important. and also, i think there was this reward that was in the air of thank you for running a flawless campaign to get to this point. which she really has done. i mean, just stop and think

about, when is the last time you had a democrat ramping up to election day and you weren't hearing all sorts of unnamed democratic congressional sources in the new york times and everywhere complaining about should have done this, should have done that, why aren't they in michigan? there's not a single second guess going on out there about the way david and that team is running that campaign and the way the candidate is running that campaign. and last night here, you know, main floor in that studio, it really did seem to be a moment where it was coming together so perfectly, because when you look at that appearance, that is the campaign of positivity and joy, and there was no swiping at donald trump in this appearance, there was none of that. by her. nothing snide, you know, just a completely positive presentation of her within that sketch. it was really, really

remarkable. >> and really a testament to how good my aunt rudolph's impersonation -- because saying that there is no test of that, like having the person who you are impersonating standing right next to you, and it was just like a magic trick. >> i can report that backstage, the vice president got a very special dana carvey version of joe biden, face-to-face, which unfortunately, there is no video of. >> re-create it. >> i wasn't there, but dana told me about it afterwards and it was pretty special. >> up next, a special announcement, a happy addition to our election team here at msnbc. we have got that and much more ahead, stay with us. x [ music ] x [ music ] opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier.

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just 107 days after her entry into the 2024 presidential race, vice president, harris will be ending her historic campaign at a place that is central to her biography. she is going to be hosting her campaigns election night watch party at her alma mater, howard university in washington, d.c. and to us as a news organization, this is important for us to know, we need to know where very important news is going to be coming from, the

campaign and the candidate on tuesday night. whether it is a victory speech or a concession speech or a hold on, my opponent is about to give a fake victory speech, but don't fall for it. we need to know where that is all coming from. but of course, that location also just seems important. it has political significance, it is her psychological heft in terms of where kamala harris has decided to bring this campaign home. her own history there at that incredibly important historic black institution. joining us now is michele norris. you know her from her years of very high profile service at public radio. most recently, you have also seen her name in the news, because when the billionaire owner of the washington post, jeff bezos, block the paper's editorial board from making its presidential endorsement, she resigned from her position as a columnist at the post, but tonight, we can announce that she is joining msnbc as a senior contributing editor. she will be there for us at howard university on election night.

michele norris, it is an honor to join you as a colleague. >> glad to be part of the family. >> you make us think better of ourselves that you are here among us. let me just start by asking you about that decision, the howard university decision, we know you're going to be there for us on tuesday. and what you think that says about the harris campaign and how they're choosing to land it? >> well, it speaks to the potential historic significance of this campaign if she is victorious, but even running as a candidate, as the first woman of south asian and jamaican heritage, it speaks to that, but it also says something about the importance of the word we in her campaign. you know, she has a list talked about bringing people along with her. and when you hear donald trump, so often when he is talking about policy, it sounds like he is doing something to america instead of for america.

and by going to howard, she is reaching back to an important milestone and saying i am bringing you along with me, i am creating an america that is about unity, i willing to work across the aisle, and although she will be at a historically black college, you're going to see a rainbow of people, which is something that you probably will not see wherever donald trump is, which is something you have not seen at all of his rallies. so, it is a culmination of her campaign and this historic moment, and [ inaudible ], because she hasn't really leaned into her gender or her blackness or her south asian his or her caribbean nest, but in this case, she is saying i am all of that, and she's leaning into it. >> i will open us up to everybody here, do you feel like we are far enough into the campaign at this point that we know the consequences of that strategic position? because the stark difference between the way hillary clinton talked about

her gender and the historic nature of her candidacy versus the lack of discussion about any of that from kamala harris, the fact that she has not been leaning into the historic nature of her own racial background in terms of what that would mean for the presidency, we have all seen it unfold alive, but are we now far enough in and getting enough data in terms of how the polling looks and all those other things that we know what the consequences of those decisions are? >> it is interesting, she is not leaning into it, but i want to make one clarification, she is not running away from it, either. she has talked about it, but in ways that are nuanced. it is not necessarily i am woman, hear me roar. i am woman, i have stuff to do. i am woman and i understand the issues that are important to women with the change in roe v. wade. with also what that means for women across the board, because it is not just abortion. it means in iowa, for instance, you know, they're having a hard time holding onto doctors or recruiting doctors because of

that six week abortion ban, so that affects women across the board, and she is saying i understand those issues. i think that it is also an indication that she just didn't have time. when you are running a sprint, normally a campaign is a marathon, and this was a sprint. and so, she had to focus more on the issues and not be distracted by some of the issues -- and i am not saying that race and gender are a distraction, but it was sometimes used to try to pull her off her message, and she stayed on message. >> can i ask you, i think we talk a lot about, and i think the media gets captivated every four years by this narrative that now the black men [ inaudible ] the thing we actually don't talk about, we never actually talk about white voters that much. and it has been interesting to me that one of the stories that really hasn't been told is the fact that a black and southeast asian woman is pulling at 49 and 50% in the united states of

america, in these united states, which means that she is winning a significant share of white voters at the obama level, and that in this 100 day campaign, she has done something hillary clinton couldn't do, which is get white women to talk to each other about why they might want to join the coalition of women of color. and that seems to be happening, we feel it in the iowa poll, at least that's what they are telling pollsters, no, mondaire six change their minds. what you make of that? >> i think it is part of the discipline she has shown in this campaign. she understood that abortion was going to be important. remember, she was talking about this before july 21st when she actually stepped in, so she was ready with that message, but she is also talking about kitchen table issues. when she talked about that credit for people who are taking care of elderly, that is a universal issue. and especially at a moment where baby boomers are marching beyond middle-aged, that is

something that hits a lot of people. and i think what we may see also is that she picked up a lot of white, young voters. you know, even while the trump campaign was working very hard particularly to go after young white men. a lot of people get close to that and it is almost like when you are at the carnival and you are about to ride one of those rickety rides and you see that sign, ride at your own risk, and you get close to it and you think, i'm not sure that i want to do that, she has asked people to think about the america that they want to live in in a very effective way, and i think the polls show that. >> and underscoring the point we have been talking about on night, about how the closing message, where people who are deciding at the very end both who they are going to vote for, and importantly, whether to vote, that risk factor that you are describing may be everything. michele norris, we are honored to have you among us, thank you very much. we will be right back, stay with us. >> [ music ]

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for months now, we have seen a steady stream of highly produced fake videos meant to push misinformation about vice president harris, her campaign, or the election itself. now, the fbi exactly warning the public about new videos in which the fbi itself is being impersonated. "the fbi is aware of two videos falsely claiming to be from the fbi relating to election security, one stating the fbi has apprehended three linked groups committing ballot fraud and a second relating to the second gentleman." these videos are not authentic, are not from the fbi, and the content they depict is false. a bold call to impersonate the fbi. >> yeah, i feel like i was really ready for all the deep fake videos of people being like this candidate did a horrible thing to me.

oh, that is a russian video. i was not ready that this was going to be the election cycle where we got fake law- enforcement videos, fake fbi videos that are supposed to be the authority to whom we appeal for real information on these things. >> and it is also, obviously, the platform formally known as twitter is the vector for this right now, which is in the hands of a guide who has spent $100 million trying to get trump elected. >> and according to the wall street journal, has been communicating directly with vladimir putin since 2022. can you imagine another time in history where a major ceo was having communication with a foreign adversary and we would be like, i guess that is life? >> it is leading a war against one of our key allies, and the wall street journal also reported that trump has also been talking to other people in putin's government, including the guy the justice department just named as running russia's election interference efforts on behalf of trump in this election. >> you need tech guidance to do

that. >> i guess that's right. we will be right back, stay with us. k, stay with us.

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so in case you haven't heard. tomorrow is the last full day of the 2024 presidential campaign. donald trump has four rallies scheduled tomorrow across north carolina, pennsylvania, and michigan, ending the day with a rally north korea grand rapids. kamala harris will spend the day in pennsylvania. rallies in allentown, philly, pittsburgh. for us here at msnbc, we're going to have a full day of coverage and a full day and night of our regular shows. i'll be here at 9:00 eastern tomorrow. then on tuesday, the day. we'll have non-stop coverage starting very early in the morning. this group here lgbt gather at 6:00 p.m. eastern. we will all stay here all night into the morning. it's going to be great. our coverage continues here with our friend jenna bush hager.