in wisconsin, in particular, and secondarily in michigan, and third in pennsylvania, which is a more ethnically diverse state than any of the over two. >> "the new york times"/siena college polls came out this weekend. >> more confusion. >> strength in the sun belt but little gains for trump in the midwest. >> yeah, but tiny. all these things are tiny. >> right. and as the final note, the one piece of data from the poll that maybe means something is those were deciding late, the late-breakers. >> "new york times" poll, late-breakers. >> deciding for harris. >> huge. definitely in the air right now, there is a sense of a little harris momentum, the wind at her back. you can see that in trump's face and harris' in the last couple days. >> john heilemann, thank you. we'll talk soon in a couple minutes on "morning joe." thank you, again. thanks to all of you for getting up "way too early" with us on this monday morning here on election week. it is election eve. thank you for being here. "morning joe" starts right now. ♪♪

america is ready! america is ready for a fresh start. ready for a new way forward. where we see our fellow american not as an enemy but as a neighbor. [ applause ] i pledge to seek common ground and common sense solutions to the challenges you face. i am not looking to score political points. i am looking to make progress. [ applause ] for anyone who hasn't voted yet, look, first of all, no judged, but please do get to it. [ laughter ] >> i don't really laugh like that, do i? >> oh, a little bit. >> we are ready for a president who knows that the true measure of a leader is not based on who you beat down, it is based on

who you lift up. this is someone who is increasingly unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, and the man is out for unchecked power. and in less than 90 days, it'll either be him or me in the oval office. >> i'm kamala. take my palmala. the american people want to stop the chaos. >> and end the dramala. >> with a cool, new step momala. >> back in our pajamalas and watch a rom-comala. >> we have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the page on a decade of politics driven by fear and division. we are done with that.

we are exhausted with it. your vote is your voice, and your voice is your power. ♪♪ >> and i pledge to you to be a president for all americans. >> we're all americans. >> a look at some of the closing messages from vice president kamala harris over the final weekend of the 2024 presidential campaign. >> i mean, it was a very uniting message. >> joyful, uniting, clear. >> i will say, that's what candidates do at the end. >> right, at the end, you want to bring it together. >> arms out, willie. >> right. >> across the fruited plains. >> that's right. >> across the rolling hill of the republic. >> like a big hug. >> you say, come to me. e pluribus unum, that's what you say, right? >> yeah. >> so this should not have been a surprise, but i love she hit all of her marks. >> yeah. >> she's talking about bringing america together, being a president for all americans. the sort of things that

americans have long said they wanted. >> right. >> consensus, compromise, unity. >> unity. >> that's the message that every politician as they're wrapping up their campaign, that's what they do. >> well, here's some of what we heard and saw from former president donald trump. >> did he do the same? >> the image of our country is terrible, it's terrible. it's a failed country. that's what it is. they view us -- they view us as a nation in decline, but even worse, they view us as a failed country. kamala's closing message to america is that she hates you. you know, there's got to be something there. i think she does. i do believe. the day i left, i shouldn't have left. i mean, honestly, because we did so -- we did so well. that beautiful white skin i have would be nice and tan. i got the whitest skin because i never have time to go out in the

sun, but i have that beautiful white -- and, you know what? it could have been beautiful, tan beautiful. all we have really over here is the fake news, right? and to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news, and i don't mind that so much. i consider myself to be the father of fertilization. it is a very demonic party. i come in, and here's the problem. [ laughter ] in lancaster, they found 2,600 ballots all done and by the same

hand. in other words, the same exact penmanship, the same hand, everything. your team is very good. i would say the greek is a seriously good player, would you agree? and tell me, who has more greek in him? the greek or me? i think we have about the same. a little birdie told me that we're leading in new jersey. what's that all about? [ applause ] we love new jersey. and if you don't vote, you're stupid. you're stupid. you watch, it's going to be so good. it's going to be so much fun. it'll be nasty a little bit at times, and maybe at the beginning, in particular, but it is going to be something. >> speaking of nasty, did he really do that gesture? i don't know. >> there's so many things. i mean -- let's bring in the gang. >> along with joe, willie, and me, we have the host of "way too early," white house bureau chief at "politico," jonathan lemire.

special correspondent for bbc news, katty kay. nbc news, national affairs analyst and a partner and chief political columnist at "puck," john heilemann. and the president of national action network and host of "politics nation" on msnbc, reverend al sharpsharpton. >> willie, there's so much to go over. first of all, kamala harris, she delivers the message that i think americans want, which is, let's come together. i'm going to be president for all americans. she's done this for quite some time. donald trump, i couldn't write down the notes quickly enough. first of all, he was asleep on his feet in one of those events. but he talked about america being horrible. he lied about, once again, spreading a big lie. he must be concerned about pennsylvania. he keeps lying about pennsylvania. says he is the father of fertilization. i'm not exactly sure what that means. >> come on. >> and then he did a graphic

scene, like he was having oral sex with the microphone. >> oh, my gosh! >> and some social media platforms actually would not play it because they said it was so obscene. you look at that moment. again, you hear these people going, running on the radio -- >> called it sensitive content. >> -- saying, oh, you know, he is going to save christians. he's sent by jesus. >> protector of women. >> he's a protector of women, all this stuff. but all the lies were just stunning. he's -- i don't know that i've ever seen as much contrast in a closing message. not just on energy and on vitality and on vigor, but also just the overall message of hope, optimism, versus pessimism, grimness, and, again,

a calling two days after he called to have liz cheney shot by a firing squad, talking about how he wouldn't mind if the press got shot. >> yeah, he said i wouldn't mind that. you'd have to shoot through the fake news to get to me, and he wouldn't have a problem with that. i think start with the superficial, which you touched on, which is this was, when joe biden was the candidate, a contrast that donald trump was young and vital. watch those rallies and tell me who is young and vital. who looks exhausted? the second and perhaps more important piece of it is, you didn't hear one word in any of those rallies from donald trump about the people. >> yeah. >> about the people whose vote he wants. it's all about him and his grievance. >> so funny you say that. there was one rally where he said, oh, all the seats are here, right? the cameraman panned around, and you saw all these empty seats. but i saw something else as he was talking about himself and his grievance. i saw people up in the stands

with their arms, like, around empty seats, kind of looking around. it's crazy, he never talks about them. he never talks about the people. he talks about himself. >> yeah, and kamala harris' message here down the stretch, as you said, she made her sort of final critique of donald trump this weekend, and now has turned to, hey, we want to turn the page together as a country. we want everybody on board. she was talking to republicans. there's a place for you in my campaign. there's a place for you in my administration. there's a place for you in this country. "the wall street journal" actually, joe, front page talking about donald trump's final weekend. you can go right here. it says, "dark pitch gets third airing," asking if voters really want to hear american carnage a third time. will it sell this time? that's exactly what donald trump is selling here at the end. >> katty, the grimness, again, over the past several weeks have been just the opposite, actually, of what donald trump

tried to do in the last ten days of the 2016 campaign. when he won. you ask people, why did donald trump win? they say, after the mueller letter, he bit his tongue, stayed quiet. it was one of the only times he ever showed discipline, and he finished quietly and got out of the way of the voters. here, my gosh, the past two weeks, you have donald trump talking about using the military, using the national guard to go after democrats and to arrest them. you have donald trump talking about getting a firing squad and shooting at the face of liz cheney, one of the most conservative in congress during her stay there. this past weekend, you had him talking about shooting the press, saying he wouldn't mind if the press were shot. of course, he again, and we have to say it, and i'm so sorry, i know there are a lot of kids who wake parents up at 4:30 and say,

"pour my cereal with crunch berries." i apologize -- >> poor kids. >> -- it's a long windup to say he simulated oral sex at a rally. >> twice. >> twice. and it was so graphic. again, a lot of social media sites had to put up warnings for it. that's his closing campaign. he seems more untethered and exhausted at the same time. you know, the first campaign i ever ran, the guy i talked to early on, he said, "joe, the campaign is all about contrast. you're young. your opponent is old. drive that. it's all about contrast." you get to the end of this campaign, i've never seen a greater contrast in american politics. >> this is not the campaign that susie wiles was trying to get

trump on. certainly not the campaign it was. they seemed to have control earlier this year, and we were talking about how disciplined the campaign was. i think the october surprise was donald trump deciding, filters? what the hell? doing whatever he wanted. the campaign with the microphone incident, he also said to the crowd, "do you want to see me go backstage and bash some heads in over this?" the violence of the rhetoric. if kamala harris has the momentum now, and we'll speak to anne seltzer in a minute, if it looks like women are turning out in big numbers, this campaign would have been partly defined by dobbs, the stories mika has been airing all of last week and how women are hearing those, but also by the nature of donald trump. when donald trump talks about violence like this, talks about beating up his stage hands because his microphone isn't working the way that he wants it to, that doesn't inspire a lot of women to think, oh, yeah, this is the guy we can trust with the nuclear codes and the

keys to the oval office. >> you know, the other campaign, jonathan lemire, you would have had a candidate that had donald trump's weaknesses, get, like, nikki haley, figure out how to work the center, and pull the women toward him. the exact opposite is happening. one poll that came out over the weekend, one, in particular, people are saying is a canary in a coal mine -- we don't know, but people in politics are saying that. if you look at those numbers in anne seltzer's polls, which anne is right 99.9% of the time, you see women, especially older women, breaking hard away from donald trump. i wonder if looking at that poll and understanding just how right that poll was four years ago -- and we'll talk to john heilemann about that in a second -- if that is one of the reasons donald trump seems even more unhinged this weekend. >> real quickly, as we toss to

you, i'm following another story of an 18-year-old in texas. a year ago, her mother took her to three emergency rooms. the first one begging for help. they gave her an antibiotic or something. second sent her home. the third one, by then, the miscarriage was so her organs failed and she died because of the strict abortion bans. people are living and dying this reality of trump. >> we said on the show a few weeks ago that when the dust settles, if harris wins, we would have looked at each other and say, it was dobbs all along. there is movement in the polls. another analyst said it was the angriest they've ever seen him before the rally in pennsylvania, obviously digesting the iowa poll, in a pure fury. that's the rally we played the sound from, about shooting the press. as the day went on, he seemed to get more progressively exhausted. john heilemann, let's talk data

points. a clue is where the candidate spends his or her time. trump in the last few days over and over and over, north carolina. there's worries there. trying to piece together 270. the fact he is going back there over and over again. lastly, pennsylvania, which is the biggest state, most important state on the map, where vice president harris is spending her entire day today. on saturday, the harris campaign had over 800,000 door knocks. 800,000 in one day, in one state. unheard of number. it was relayed earlier this morning that while canvassers were out there, some reaching the same home more than once, extraordinary, they never saw any sign, any sign of a trump ground game that he outsourced to elon musk and the like. >> yeah, man, so many data points right now. trump, if you watched him all weekend long, i'll tell you exactly what -- it wasn't that he just looked angry, which he did sometimes. again, the contrast projections

of these violent fantasies. you know, the cheney thing, the shooting the press thing, his -- as he gets more and more exhausted, he just -- it comes out more and more. they're all revenge fantasies, people getting shot, people he doesn't like getting shot. >> but there is a dejection there, too. the exhaustion at the end, the begging, "please vote for me. if i don't win after all this" -- >> this is the headline after the weekend, he knows he is losing. you can see it. he's saying more and more things that project not the -- he was asked -- >> i think he knows it is close. >> he was asked by john karl in one of these stops from abc news whether he thought he could lose. i've never heard trump say, in a moment like this, what he said. this is a paraphrase, but it was basically, yeah, you know, you could lose. sometimes it feels good for us out there, but i don't know, we could lose.

he said, it's possible you could lose like eight times, which is not a thing that trump would ever say, even if he thought he was losing. >> i'll say right now what i've been saying for months. this race is tied. >> yeah. >> this race is tied. the only difference, rev, is donald trump has had people around him for three months, it's like a fight corner, "yeah, champ, you're the greatest, champ. go out there, you've got this in the bag." i've never seen such arrogance in all my life. people reporting on this campaign have never seen a campaign so sure they were going to wipe out their opponent as this campaign. so donald trump's heard that, and he was sure he was going to win easily. then this weekend, as polls started breaking, suddenly, he understands, this is still a fight. i don't think donald trump thinks, oh, i'm going to lose. >> no. >> i think donald trump for the first time is saying, oh, my god, my people were lying to me

all along. >> yeah. >> they lied to me all along and oversold it. i'm in a dogfight. this is -- this is going to be a rough rumble to the very end politically. >> if it was a boxer, it's his corner telling him, "you're ahead in the fight," and then he finds out he's not. i think that i've never seen a more disastrous closing argument, especially to the ones he is trying to appeal to. to those that he's trying to say that he is balanced and can handle the state, he comes out simulating oral sex. evangelicals will love that. to the black man, he talks about his beautiful white skin. >> says it repeatedly, white skin. >> it'll play well to black men.

then with women, he goes the other way. i mean, everything -- you and i are -- >> by the way, we haven't even talked about madison square garden. >> exactly. >> a pivotal moment in this campaign. you look at his hispanic numbers. they dropped about ten points in the last "new york times"/siena poll. >> and he has done nothing to try to recover that, to even belatedly attack this situation that the comedian put him in on his platform, with his invitation. he's never done anything to try to repair that. the campaign put out a statement, but he has not personally denounced any of that. >> right. >> then, as i was getting ready to say, you and i are baptist. the end of a sermon, you open the doors of the church. >> amen. >> you say, come and be part of -- >> all ye who are weary. >> the glorious afterlife. you don't say, you low-down dogs. >> hope cometh in the morning. >> he beat up the congregation he is trying to appeal to come and vote. >> i mean, willie -- sorry, joe, he just says he wants to be the

protector of women, yet everything he's done, we need to be protected from him. from his policies and even his actions. look at what he does. >> one of the most telling, moving things have been these specific stories you've been talking about, mika, over and over again. >> yeah. >> to show how heinous and brutal the trump -- >> gruesome. >> in texas, collin allred calling it the ted cruz ban. i've seen the commercials during football games in texas, whoa. if that race is really close, that's why. we'll go to anne seltzer in one moment. i want to explain something really quickly. i go into this dark zone. not aaron rodgers' dark zone. >> okay. >> but the last weekend before a campaign, i turn everything off. >> do you polish your corvette? >> no, i don't. i delete -- that's an old law school story. i knew a guy who should have been studying for the bar exam. i'm like, dude, what are you doing? he goes, i'm getting ready for the bar exam.

this is how i get my mind right. but in my campaign, the last weekend, i shut down. i'm not looking at anything but football games. i went out golfing twice for the first time in four years. >> how'd you do? >> pretty good for not playing in four years. anything to get away from people talking about stuff they don't know anything about. mika calls me, what was it, saturday night. >> yeah. >> i hadn't been on anything. >> i wasn't going to bring it up. >> she quietly goes, have you seen about the iowa poll? i go, what iowa poll? i'm looking at south carolina. they're looking pretty good. >> anne seltzer. >> texas a&m. she goes, oh, anne seltzer has trump up by -- i mean, has harris up by three points in iowa. i'm like, what? then i'm on the phone the rest of the night. but, john heilemann, we were talking that night, and you told me the most remarkable story

about, first of all, anne gets it right every time. just about every time. you told me the most remarkable story about where you were four years ago to the night that this poll dropped. i want you to explain that so people get an understanding about anne, and then willie will take us to anne. >> very quickly to your point, north carolina, there four times in the last three days. they're worried about north carolina, and that's obvious. the other thing is, the way he knows he is in trouble, the rooms are really empty now. he's playing to half-filled halls now. halls that he filled two weeks ago in the same place. anne seltzer, four years ago, people forget how competitive iowa was four years ago when we were making the finale of "the circus." i went to des moines on halloween night, the saturday night before the election. the last poll, the iowa poll with "des moines register" comes

out. she won the state by the right number in 2016. she'd gotten obama in '12. she'd gotten obama in '08. hadn't missed a race, except in '04 where she missed kerry by a point. had kerry winning by a point, but bush won iowa narrowly with a last-minute push. she's very accurate. famously in the primaries and caucuses for years and years and years. so in that race last time, her previous poll in 2020, in september, had trump and biden tied at 47/47. >> tied in iowa. this is the same time other polls were showing biden up by ten in wisconsin, nine in michigan, and it was going to be a blowout. >> looking for a landslide. i went there thinking, well, we'll probably see -- we'll see what's happening here. see if biden can put distance between himself and trump, it'll auger a landslide across the blue wall states. instead, anne's poll had trump up by seven.

i was in a room with matt paul, probably the best democratic strategist in iowa and also the best republican strategist. on camera, we were like, this is the first time we thought, trump could win the race. there was no question at that moment that michigan, ohio -- or, well, ohio was not. michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania were going to be way closer than anyone thought. >> because of this one poll. >> you could see the poll. it turned out on election day, just to drive the point home, trump ended up winning iowa by eight instead of seven. >> you said at the time, a canary in the coal mine. >> canary in the coal mine. >> a lot of people saturday night were saying the same thing, canary in the coal mine. >> anne seltzer poll predicted trump plus seven in 2020. wins by eight. 2018, trump plus seven. he wins by nine. 2012, obama plus five. he wins by five. here is that new poll out of

iowa. "the des moines register"/media com iowa poll has harris up three points, 47% to donald trump's 44%, within the margin of error. in september, trump was ahead of harris by four points. in june, trump was up 18 points over president biden. trump won iowa in 2016 and 2020. the data shows women, particularly those who are older or registered as independent, are driving the late shift toward kamala harris. joining us now is the pollster who conducted "the des moines register" and mediacom poll. she's president of seltzer and company. great to have you with us this morning. if you would, we've given you a big windup and lead in here. walk us through the poll. what you found and what has caused this shift. >> as you can imagine, this was a shock poll. i've been shocked since tuesday morning last week. i've had the time for this to sink in.

because no one, including me, would have thought iowa could go for kamala harris. so what we saw there was striking, sort of elaboration of what had happened with our september poll. we had kamala harris closing by 14 points, the gap with donald trump. our analysis then was it wasn't that people are switching their allegiances. it was that more people were qualifying as likely voters in september, saying they'd definitely vote. and somebody asked me, well, is trump losing ground? that's an interesting question. you get out your calculator and start to work that out. he actually -- there were more respondents for trump, by three individuals than he had in june. but kamala harris got 85. that's because the influx, the bigger number of likely voters

extremely went to kamala harris. this poll is an extension of that. the people more likely to show up are her kinds of supporters. she's got more women, more older people. she's got more college educated people. it's ended up -- you look at the graph of it -- it looks pretty linear, going from biden's low point in june up to now, she has leapfrogged over trump into the lead. so there's lots of things going on, lots of things to speculate there. obviously, we looked hard at these numbers to feel confident in publishing, and we do. >> aann, obviously, there are only polls out of iowa. donald trump said, well, i'm up by ten points in other polls, up by double digits. despite the track record we laid out, could it be an outlier in iowa? >> i give credit to the method

for the track record. i call my method polling forward. i want to be in a place where my data can show me what is likely to happen with the future electorate. i try to get out of the way of my data, saying this is what is going to happen. a lot of other polls, and i'll count emerson among them, are incluing in the way that they manipulate the data after it comes in things that have happened in the past. they're taking into account exit polls, taking into account what turnout was in past elections. i don't make any assumptions like that. in my way of thinking, it's a cleaner way to forecast a future electorate, which nobody knows what that is going to be. but we do know that electorates change in terms of how many people are showing up and what the composition is. i don't want to try to predict what that's going to be. i want to be in a place for my data to show me.

>> john, as we're explaining this weekend, jonathan, explaining this weekend to some people who were asking, so many pollsters get so many things wrong in the past and are furiously playing with the numbers, trying to weight it this way and that way. the reason ann seltzer doesn't have to do it is because she got it right last time and the time before that. she goes, is this my new york needle that has hillary at 99%? does donald trump look like an old man? all the polls got everything wrong in 2020 and 2022. >> yeah. >> they're looking at their numbers and saying, is my data lying to me? have i got the wrong people? ann doesn't have to do that because ann was right four years ago. she just looks at the data and puts it out there. if people are asking what's going on here and why this

outlier may be a canary in a coal mine, it is the same reason that john heilemann said four years ago, it was a massive swing toward trump. ann trusted the data. she didn't have to play games with the numbers because she didn't have to adjust for past failures. >> the track record speaks for itself, which is why it landed with a thunderclap saturday evening. ann, to joe's point, there's been all this speculation about what's that quiet, what's the hidden vote this time around? we know there was, in other polls, some votes for donald trump that weren't picked up in '16 and '20, as just two examples. in your data here, are you seeing any surprises in terms of people turning out, who might be for trump, or perhaps for harris that, you know, weren't expected? >> nothing that we needed -- that we felt was anything other than what naturally happens in polls. we have some people who say that they are self-identified as republicans. a small number, single digits, who are voting for harris. we have less than 1% of

self-identified democrats who say they're voting for trump. i'll just tack on to my comment here, this method is the same method we used in 2016 to show trump winning and 2020 to show trump winning. he doesn't like it now. it's not the poll, it's what the poll is saying. >> ann, the iowa's six-week abortion ban came into effect in july. you've polled since july. >> wow. >> you didn't see -- in the first polls you did after july, you didn't see this big shift toward kamala harris. do you think it is just that people are, as the election gets closer, they're being more motivated by the issue, potentially, of abortion, if it is a lot of women coming out, or how do you explain that? >> yes, the gender gap, you definitely see it here. kamala harris wins with women more than she loses with men. that ends up there.

the very best demographic for her is women aged 65 and over. her margin is more than 2 to 1 with that group. so we did see this dynamic in our september poll, that people were coming off the bench and getting in the game. and her -- she decreased the margin by 14 points. that was really kind of the thunderclap we thought we were going to see. >> right. >> it's independent women. it's women 65 and over. the poll in june where we had biden down 18, this is before the fetal heartbeat bill went into effect, and the september poll has been in effect. we can't close the loop on this. we don't have proper data to do more than that, but we know the majority of the state sees -- thinks that abortion in most or all cases should be legal.

and the majority are opposed to the six-week ban. it's not exactly apples to apples, but the mood of the state is clearly more in favor of a different kind of law on abortion. i'll make one more point, and that's at the congressional district level. the first district, we have republican incumbents in all four districts. the first district is like a 20-point lead for the democratic challenger. >> wow. >> abortion has been a big part of that race. >> geez, yeah. hey, ann, it's heilemann here. of course, there's been tons of spending in those congressional races, mostly abortion focused, so that's another factor. real quick, though, i'm not a mathematician, but 47 plus 44 gets you to 91. i think you have 2% undecided. 7% that i don't understand. what's that 9% that's sitting out there that's still left to be accounted for in the iowa

electorate? >> right, thank you, john, for pointing this out. neither candidate is getting to 50% in our poll. there's plenty of smoosh still there. some of that 3% is going for robert f. kennedy jr., who appears on our ballot. the rest are a mix of people who say they're going to vote for someone else. you know, 1%. some people say they're not sure still at this point. and some people who have already voted but they don't want to tell us who they voted for. >> wow. >> maybe those are all trump voters. >> right. >> there's still plenty of things that could happen. i'm prepared for this election to go either way. i'll be okay. >> yeah. >> president of the polling firm seltzer and company, j ann seltzer, thank you very much for copping on the show this morning. still ahead on "morning joe," inside the ruthless, restless, final days of trump's

campaign. "the atlantic's" tim alberta joins us with that. plus, democrats are hoping to retake the house and defend the senate tomorrow on election day. we'll talk to two top lawmakers in charge of delivering those results. you're watching "morning joe." we're back in 90 seconds. ♪ you can't always get what you want you can't always get what you want ♪ ♪ can't always get what you want ♪ seltzer.

selzer. seltzer selzer howing you donald trump. this isn't even a democrat and republican battle. this is donald trump talking about executing one of the most conservative republicans in congress over the past decade. >> well, i can't wait to watch the cameras chase lindsey graham around the mall, see how fast he is going to run to get away from him. >> liz cheney, don't listen to her. she's selling out conservatism to stay relevant. she's not relevant in terms of conservatism. she's no longer got a voice. trump is going to win. we're going to win the senate. we're going to push through all this [ bleep ]. and i'm not going to listen to anything she has to say. >> well, you know, by the way,

if you heard catholic mass music playing in the background, that was lindsey graham's confession. he's talking about republicans who will do anything to stay relevant! oh, my god, lindsey. i love you. you know i love you. it's the story of your life. >> yeah. >> it is literally the story of your life. anything to stay relevant. now, let's talk about, really quickly, we have to talk about it, let's talk about liz cheney. she had a safe seat. she could have stayed in it forever. could have been a senator. she could have been a vice president. she could have been a president. but liz cheney chose at a certain point, as did all true conservatives -- and, yeah, i count myself as one of those -- that donald trump actually was undermining the conservative movement. he was undermining the republican party. he was undermining, in my case,

i thought he was undermining the evangelical church. and so it seems to me, there's not really a whole lot of sacrifice in staying as close to a person in power as you possibly can. watching a january 6th riot, saying you're done with him, then being chased by three people and a hound dog at the airport. >> it was a chihuahua. >> and immediately flipping. you know, willie, john mccain, the last time i spoke to him, you know, he was concerned. it was valentine's day 2017. i was in his office. he had a lot on his mind, mainly putin. very concerned about vladimir putin. the killing of a political opponent in the shadow of the kremlin. but he just shook his head.

he was talking about lindsey. he was like, "you came in with lindsey, right?" "yeah, came in in '04. we were friends." he was like, "that guy, what he is willing to sacrifice to play a game of golf with the president." he wasn't mad at him, just shook his head and sighed. he could not imagine it. >> go back to january 6th, 2021, on the floor, in the well of the senate. remember him pounding, saying, "i'm out?" done, done. almost saw a glimmer of convention there. then he's hounded by trump supporters and flips. he was famously described as a pilot fish, a smaller fish who always swims with a larger predator, stays close to the strong fish so he can live off that. that's probably what we're seeing here. >> listen, guilty as charged. i mean, i'm a pilot fish to mika, and it is working out

well. let's bring in the american chair of vanderbilt university, who beat auburn this past weekend and is bowl eligible. that's a real football team you got there, willie. >> on the road, too. >> on the road. >> look good. >> beat alabama and auburn in the same season for the first time since 1955. things are changing there, jon meacham. >> 1955. >> there is a new wind. it's a new way forward, willie. >> yes, sir. >> help me god if you bring up the french-indian war or shay's rebellion. >> i'm out. >> like lindsey, i'm out. >> we're out. we're out. so, jon, i'm sure you saw the top of the show, the contrast between kamala harris' closing statements, which i have to say, for you and me, the way we talk in our nerdish way about what government should be about, bringing people together, compromising, prudently governing, and looking at your

political opponent not as the enemy but as a partner in negotiations, that was kamala harris' message. donald trump's message, obviously, was talking ability about the shooting of the press. he wouldn't mind if the press were shot. saying many awful things. making obscene gestures. seeming completely exhausted and beaten down by this process. i'm just curious, first of all, your thoughts, reflections. second of all, have you ever seen a contrast this dramatic in the closing days of a campaign? >> no, i haven't. this isn't quite the french and indian war, but it's close. >> oh, yeah. >> what i did think about, honest to god -- easy, easy -- is 1800. when thomas jefferson was in -- >> of course. >> -- this huge battle, what they thought of as -- >> yeah.

>> all right, all right. >> reset. >> an existential struggle. >> yeah. >> jefferson said, you know, we have to restore the spirit of '76. they already thought it was gone in 1800. but jefferson was the architect of a politics that t.r., lincoln, fdr, ronald reagan, and vice president harris this weekend practiced, which was a politics of optimism. it was about america being the world's first --jefferson said the best hope, lincoln made it the last best hope, and reagan made it the last best hope of man on earth. it was a gradual building up of the possibilities of politics. the possibilities of the country. if you don't believe that politics is about possibility, then the alternative is that it is only about power.

i believe as firmly as i believe anything that that's what's on the ballot tomorrow. and i don't say this as a partisan, but i think it is very -- to me, it is beyond clear that people who revered ronald reagan, people who voted for the bushes, who voted for mccain, who voted for romney, this is not your guy. this is not your party. don't just stay out of some kind of old loyalty. it's not the same institution. liz cheney's argued it. so many people have argued it. just believe the evidence of your eyes. >> you know, joe, he mentions 1800. you and i go to 1985, when dairy queen introduced the blizzard as a historical marker. >> right. >> you can get the crushed up oreos. >> i didn't like the blizzard. >> that really was, and i think

we're seeing it here, too, that was sort of a compromise between the old and the new. i want my dairy queen, right? >> right now. >> the ice cream cone. i just want it. >> okay. >> what did they do? two great tastes, taste great together. like resee's peanut butter cups, too. you have the crimean war, the french-indian war, 1800. we have the blizzard of '85. >> i thought it was really good. >> by the way, listening to -- >> mika, that was my fault. i apologize. >> it is. >> i'll get us back on track. thinking about donald trump and the idea of american carnage, which he's gone deeper and deeper, especially over the weekend, it was very dark, low energy, conspiracy theories about the election. he's ceding the ground again in

case he loses. conspiracies are being debunked. that message worked in 2016. it lost narrowly in 2020. it lost in 2022. on and on and on. are there parallels, or do you see anything appealing to a broad electorate, not just the base, about a vision of america that is a third world country or a hell hole, as donald trump likes to call it? >> no. what it is is an appeal to people who -- there's two groups here, right? there are people who do not believe the country is on the right track. they discount for reasons that surpass understanding, but they do discount the temperamental questions. that's the most euphemistic way i can put trump's behavior. they just want a change.

there are a lot of people, a significant number of people, who voted for barack obama in 2012 and donald trump in 2016. think about it. to go in 48 months from voting for barack obama to voting for donald trump is a pretty wide -- it is almost as big a journey as nominaing mitt romney to going to nominate donald trump. there are people who look at the world, don't like what they see, so they want a change. that's a totally, obviously, legitimate impulse. their vote counts as much as our vote does. here's the thing, what i would urge folks to do is look out and consider what the change would be. what's the price of that change? a harris presidency will be a recognizable phenomenon. you can disagree with it. you can love it. you can dislike it. but it's something that fits within the way america works.

a trump -- another trump presidency is something that is so risky, so self-evidently risky. don't just look at what he says now. look at what he did four years ago in this season. it wasn't just january 6th, right? listen to the tape when he called georgia and asked for the votes. you know, go online and take a look at the january 6th committee stuff. i just -- you know, joe and i both have republican friends who have somehow lindsey-like, sort of talked themselves into january 6th being this liberal fixation, right? it's not. it's not. it was a genuine attack on the thing that has, dare i say it, since 1800, characterized

american democracy, which is a peaceful transfer of power. and there were a lot of people, let's be very clear, there were a lot of people. richard nixon in 1960. hubert humphrey in 1968. gerald ford in 1976. al gore in 2000. hillary clinton in 2016. these are folks who might have had some reason to challenge results, and they didn't. because they believed fundamentally that the constitution was more important than they were. >> right. >> that's what i think we have to decide. >> i mean, it's a very -- you're so right. it's a very, really simple choice here. you have someone who respects constitutional boundaries and madisonian democracy, and another candidate who, even those who support him will say, is repelled by any check against his power. that is where we are. historian jon meacham, thank you so much. we'll see you again tomorrow morning for our election day

coverage. >> and to make it more basic, this is an election of life or death for women because of what he did four years ago. coming up, some of the castmembers of the award-winning show, "the west wing," are endorsing kamala harris for president. we'll show you their ad campaign. "morning joe" will be right back. ♪ i just want to use your love tonight ♪ ♪ i don't want to lose your love tonight ♪ like we did- there's a treatment that can help: bulkamid. and the relief can last for years. we're so glad we got bulkamid. visit findrealrelief.com to find a physician near you. some days, you can feel like a spectator in your own life with chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month each lasting 4 hours or more. botox® prevents headaches in adults

with chronic migraine before they start. and treatment is 4 times a year. in a survey, 91% of users wish they'd started sooner. so why wait? talk to your doctor. effects of botox® may spread hours to weeks after injection causing serious symptoms. alert your doctor right away as difficulty swallowing speaking, breathing, eye problems, or muscle weakness can be signs of a life-threatening condition. side effects may include allergic reactions, neck and injection site pain, fatigue, and headache. don't receive botox® if there's a skin infection. tell your doctor your medical history, muscle or nerve conditions, and medications including botulinum toxins as these may increase the risk of serious side effects. chronic migraine may still keep you from being there. why wait? talk to your doctor about botox®. and get in the picture. learn how abbvie can help you save. customize and save with liberty mutual. customize and sa— (balloon doug pops & deflates) and then i wake up. is limu with you in all your dreams? oh, yeah.

only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty. ♪ jen b asks, "how can i get fast download speeds only pay for what you need. while out and about?” jen, we've engineered xfinity mobile with wifi speeds up to a gig, so you can download and do much more all at once. it's an idea that's quite attractive. or... another word... fashionable? i was gonna say- “popular! you're gonna be pop-uuuu-larrr!” can you do defying gravity?! yeah, get my harness. buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year with xfinity mobile. and see wicked, only in theaters november 22nd.

welcome back. 53 past the hour. eight members from the cast of the award-winning television show "the west wing" are endorsing vice president kamala harris. in a new ad made in partnership with the lincoln project, take a look. >> the right kind of president reminds us that honor and

dignity aren't relics of the past. >> but the foundation of our future. >> they know that while their time here is fleeting -- >> -- their service can build a stronger america for generations to come. the woman who will soon sit behind this desk will be the first in many ways. >> she will lead america to a new era, a proud era. >> a future where we will build. >> as one nation. >> a time of opportunity and prosperity for every american. >> every family. >> her name is kamala harris. >> kamala harris. >> kamala harris. >> kamala harris. >> kamala harris. >> kamala harris. >> and she will be our next president. >> wow. let's bring in longtime political strategist and consultant, rick wilson. he is a co-founder and board member of the lincoln project. john heilemann, i'll give you a first question for rick. >> i believe the author of the

script of that ad -- i'm like donald trump, a little bird told me -- there are two obvious questions. one thing, i understand this came together real quick. >> very. >> and i think the biggest question watching it is -- beautiful ad -- we don't see any of their faces. i think maybe those two things are connected. >> you know, "the west wing" was a political icon for a generation of americans, and it did remind people all the time, even though it was fiction, it was a fiction of a white house people wanted. they wanted the honor and dignity. they wanted the sense of service. they wanted the idea that people in that sacred space were there for the american people and not for their own financial gain or their personal aggrandizement or whatever the office gave them. we showed the city, the white house, america in an aspirational way.

>> none of the actors' faces. >> yeah, yeah. >> for sure. >> just all aspirational. >> rev? >> i think one of the things that "west wing" brought to all americans is we actually felt like we were in the west wing. >> sure. >> by the cast coming out and endorsing, at least some members of the cast, kamala harris, doesn't that also in the subliminal way say, these are the people we learned what the west wing was about, who feel should be in the west wing. was that part of the message? >> the idea was to show people, you know, remind people that the stories they saw on "the west wing," the stories they saw about that white house also exist in real life. republican and democratic presidents before have put the country first. they've done the things that leadership demands when they're in the white house. we're really proud to work with the "west wing" cast. it was an amazing group of people to work with, and it did happen at a speed that is, like, the speed of light. >> really.

>> rick, sounds like a -- there was the aspirations of the cast there, but when you make an ad like this, who do you think -- whose minds do you think you might be able to change? are you making it thinking, right, there are certain people we want to target? all the voters who perhaps reminisce about the period, or are you hoping it reaching somebody, somewhere? >> there are gen-x voters still in the undecided camp. there are soft republicans that research shows us are still in play. those folks have moved over to harris in meaningful numbers, bigger than trump ever lost before in '16 or '20. talking to those folks. but it is also a more broad appeal to talk to america and remind them that they don't have to accept something lesser in the white house this time. >> rick, there was an ad that you made a rebuttal to that really broke through with people. it was played in a lot of

football games, things like that, about kamala harris, in her own words, saying a few years ago that she supported transgender surgery for prison inmates. >> right. >> turns out that was actually a trump-era policy. >> right. >> let's watch the rebuttal ad. i'm not sure everyone saw this opposed to the original ad. >> have you seen this ad? donald trump is spending millions attacking kamala harris on a desperate lie. taxpayer funded sex changes for prisoners and illegal aliens is a trump administration policy. he's attacking kamala harris for his own record. and he thinks you're too dumb to get it. he's gaslighting america because trump is for he/him. kamala is for us. >> rick, that's the truth about that policy. >> sure. >> the original ad broke through in a way that even democrats are saying, did she really say that? >> you know, they invested about $30 million in that ad. they bashed it into the heads of particularly younger male voters

around the country. they did a lot of testing on it. they knew it was working. this ad came together in a way that was pushing back on it because, as joe has been pointing out for weeks, this is a fact, it was trump's policy. it was always trump's era policy. he didn't do -- you know, donald trump could have issued an executive order at the drop of a hat. never did that. never cared about that. >> what's amazing, they can't say, we didn't know it was there. they actually amended it to say, taxpayers will fund transition surgeries if they are, quote, medically necessary. >> proving they knew it was there. >> right. >> the trump justice department, the trump bureau of prisons went in and looked at this and said, well, let's allow for gender transition surgeries if they are, quote, medically necessary. >> yeah. >> i think the biggest lesson here, joe and mika, is donald trump has contempt for his own

audience. he knew his people wouldn't care about the lie. we cared about the truth. that was one we were proud of, the pushback. >> the crazy thing is, $30 million in ads for something she said at a forum -- >> explaining the law. >> when she said it at a forum, donald trump was actually enacting the law in the justice department and his bureau. >> crazy. >> co-founder and board member of the lincoln project, rick wilson, thank you so much. >> thank you, rick. >> thanks for having me. appreciate you guys. still ahead, unity versus divisiveness. we'll go over harris and trump's closing pitches to voters just one day before the election. plus, democratic senators gary peters of michigan and raphael warnock of georgia will join the conversation. also ahead, democratic national committee chair jaime harrison will be our guest and what he is hearing from voters in key battleground states. we're back in 90 seconds. okay everyone, our mission is to provide complete,

balanced nutrition for strength and energy. yay - woo hoo! ensure, with 27 vitamins and minerals, nutrients for immune health. and ensure complete with 30 grams of protein. (♪♪) your business needs a network it can count on... with 30 grams even during the unexpected.n. power's out! power's out! -power's out! power's out! -power's out comcast business has you covered, with wifi backup to help keep you up and running. wifi's up. let's power on! let's power on! let's power on! -let's power on! it's from the company with 99.9% network reliability. plus advanced security. let's power on! power on with the leader in connectivity. dangerous ladders. gutter muck. powering possibilities. comcast business. power's out.

yuck. no wonder you hate cleaning your gutters. good thing there's leaffilter. our patented filter technology keeps leaves and debris out of your gutters forever. guaranteed. call 833- leaffilter to get started. and get the permanent gutter solution that ends clogs for good. they took the time to answer all of our questions. they really put us at ease. end clogged gutters for good. call 833.leaf.filter, or visit leaffilter.com today. i wish i could talk to someone who has been in my shoes, you know? a black south asian woman running for president,

preferably from the bay area. >> kamala, take my palmala. the american people want to stop the chaos. >> and end the dramala. >> with a cool, new step momala. kick back in our pajamalas and watch a rom-comala. >> like legally blondala. >> and start decorating for christmas. fa-la-la-la-la. what do we always say? >> keep calmala and carry onala. >> yesterday, kamala harris was on an airplane headed to michigan. they called her, you want to be on "saturday night live"? and they made a u-turn. apparently left a bunch of people stranded, waiting for her. i don't know how many people went to her rally anyway. she probably told them beyonce would be there, so they all showed up. then, you know, did a u-turn and went to "saturday night live."

by the way, in violation of the law. my only hope was, i hope she laughs on "saturday night live" in front of millions of people. that's probably worth votes right there. >> if you're keeping score at home, willie, he hates the jury system, right? he hates "saturday night live." he hates kamala's laugh. one of those things, like the obsession, you know? it's really weird. this is a guy who, by the way, threw water all over himself when he was running against donald trump. some people know how to do it better than others. >> sometimes nick names stick for a reason is all i'll say. donald trump gave him one in 2016. >> it's been quite a change, jonathan lemire, hasn't it? >> senator rubio encapsulates the evolution of so many republicans with donald trump. in 2016, there were moments where he stood up to him. now, he has, other than a few moments on foreign policy, he's

kowtowed to him each and every time. was trying to be secretary of state this time around. now has debased himself, criticizing the jury system. here on election eve, attacking maya rudolph and "saturday night live." >> the harshest words, elise jordan, that you will ever hear anyone speak of donald trump, the harshest words you can get from the mouth of ted cruz before he capitulated, lindsey graham before he capitulated, marco rubio before he capitulated, and, of course, the guy who called him america's hitler, his current vice presidential nominee. again, go back and just find the words these republicans said about donald trump in the past, and the words those who worked for him are still saying. it's remarkably bleak. >> donald trump can recover

really quickly as long as they bend the knee. it is amazing. i wonder how much, though, ted cruz's past criticism of trump is going to factor in with those maga voters in deep red texas. >> yeah. >> he really needs every vote this go-around in that senate race. it's a really strange one. there's so many newly registered voters. i'm watching that really closely. >> yeah. >> you know, we're a day away, rev. we're a day away. i will continue to say, nobody knows anything. this race is tied. if it does break the way some people are suggesting that it's breaking, some polls are suggesting the outlines that it may be breaking, actually in predominantly white states for kamala. the numbers in iowa are stunning. right now, the numbers in the wisconsin cross tabs in "the new york times"/siena poll,

stunning. older, white women, the way they're going. there have been kansas polls that show it close. this all may be a mirage. i don't know. but time and time again, what's happened in those states, texas, restrictive abortion ban. iowa, the polls have gotten close since a restrictive abortion ban. this is really crushing the republican party. you've heard people, like ann coulter for a couple years are saying, figure something out here. you're going to keep losing elections. >> i think it is real clear that the abortion ban and the possible threat of a national abortion ban if trump is president may be what is critical in this election. i'm going to north carolina today for get out the vote rally. the ministers there, who are basically -- talking about black ministers, basically anti-abortion are saying, well,

we shouldn't have a law against it. it should be up to women to make their own decisions. i've always been for people having the right to make their own decision. when i asked them in the conference calls leading up to the rally today, have you changed your position? they go, we have daughters. we have people in our congregation that want to have the right to choose. i think we'll see if it is a mirage, but i think, clearly, this could be a deciding factor. >> yeah, this is trump legacy that everyone can see and feel and know someone that they love who potentially could be in this situation right now. women being sterilized because these abortion bans don't get them the care they need. horrific, unviable pregnancies being brought to term and traumatizing women. women begging for life-saving care and not getting it. >> doctors staring at them. >> even though they can't do it

legally. women lying. >> women die while lawyers debate and doctors stand by. that is what's happening in texas. that's what's happening in other states right now. again -- >> that's trump. >> -- that's why the texas race, the senate race, appears to be as close as it is. >> we also have with it editor in chief of "the atlantic," jeffrey goldberg. katty kay still with us, as well. along with elise joining the table. let's get to the top stories and then get to jeffrey. voters heard different messages from the candidates over the final weekend of campaigning with donald trump delivering dark and divisive remarks over several rallies. >> you want to lose your life savings because we put a weak and foolish woman in the white house? no. do you want to lose your job and maybe your house and your pension because kamala has the economic understanding of a child? never once did she call. never once did she visit. she visited one time in an area

that had nothing to do, you know, but essentially, never once did she visit. if she wins, you will live the rest of your life as second class citizens in your own country. that's what's happening. we had the safest border in the history of our country the day i left. i shouldn't have left. i mean, honestly, we did so -- we did so well. i have a piece of glass over here, and i don't have a piece of glass there. i have this piece of glass here. but all we have really over here is the fake news, right? and to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news, and i don't mind that so

much. i don't mind. i don't mind that. >> they -- they laugh and they applaud, john, at him saying they'd have to shoot the press and "i don't mind that." >> never understood that. >> in 2024, that's a laugh and applause line at a political rally. just like in 2023, donald trump mocking paul pelosi for being bludgeoned nearly to death. making jokes about that. that was applause line. i will ask the question they think is a fair question to ask, who raised these people? >> yeah. >> because they were not raised by anybody in my neighborhoods that i grew up, any middle class neighborhoods that i grew up in. these people were not there. they were not raised -- i mean, they weren't in the classes i went to growing up. in elementary or middle or high

school or college. they just weren't there. that wasn't the america i grew up in, where people would laugh at the idea of people of the press getting shot. like everybody would sit around, like, what's he talking about? or, again -- >> laughing at the puerto rican joke. >> laughing at the puerto rican joke, that puerto ricans are a pile of trash. or laughing at this 82, 83-year-old man being bludgeoned nearly to death? that's an applause line? that's a laugh line? again, again, who are these people? where are they coming from? who raised them? how did donald trump twist their point of view so much in nine years, that the brutalization of an 83-year-old man is something to laugh about? or the shooting of press members

is an applause line? >> yeah, trump suggested the press be shot, my friend, the legendary photographer who is traveling president trump campaign here, said that the speech rally goes on, particularly last night in georgia, the threats from the crowd to the press there in the arena only growing. they're concerned about the security situation. that's part of the closing argument, jeffrey goldberg, that donald trump is seemingly making. it is dark. it is dangerous. it is portending violence. a candidate who seemed furious and exhausted, this is the last message he is leaving with the american voters. >> well, you know, we're talking about someone who admires certain aspects of hitler's leadership qualities, right? that's what we're talking about. i mean, i've been concerned, obviously, on behalf of my colleagues in the press more and more in the last couple of weeks, and i was thinking,

that's just -- what we just saw was on sunday, right? it was over the weekend. as the pressure increases on donald trump, as the fear of losing becomes more materialized, he decompensates further. he does not do well, obviously, under pressure. and so god only knows what we're going to be hearing from him tomorrow and then wednesday and onward, assuming he challenges whatever, if he loses the race, assuming he challenges their results. you know, just when you think you've reached ugly, true ugly, it kind of goes deeper. >> i mean, he's already talking about conspiracy theories about the election. we knew he'd do that. that's going to be a big part of his case should he lose, of course. i'll say again, the state and local officials in states across the country are systematically debunking these. i'm thinking about the lie about

haitian immigrants voting repeatedly in the state of georgia. the secretary of state, his office, gabe sterling, secretary raffensperger saying, this is a lie. it is russian disinformation. anyone amplifying that now knows this. they're going to have to be playing whack-a-mole to put down the conspiracy theories. meanwhile, vice president kamala harris spent part of her weekend campaigning in the battleground states of wisconsin and michigan. quite a contrast from what you just saw with donald trump. >> i see the promise of america in everyone who is here, in all of you. in all of us. we are the promise of america. we are the promise of america. it's the fathers and mothers and grandparents who work hard every day for their children's future, and the women who refuse to accept a future without reproductive freedoms.

and the men who support them. [ applause ] it's been the republicans who never voted for a democrat before but put the constitution of the united states above party. you know, from the very start, our campaign has not been about being against something. it is about being for something. [ applause ] a fight for a future with freedom, opportunity, and dignity for all americans. so in these final hours, let us remember that there is power in knowing that we are together. and let us remember that your vote is your voice, and your voice is your power. >> katty kay, we can put those side by side. donald trump scowling, talking about the end of america if he loses this election.

vice president harris there, to loud, ruckus crowds, who are actually enthusiastic about watching her. >> yeah, the harris campaign clearly made the decision at the end of this, in a very, very closing days of this campaign, to put donald trump to one side and talk about giving a more uplifting message to those crowds. they do -- clearly, just from their numbers, they seem to be motivating their supporters. the campaign has just announced this morning they've had 3 million doors they've knocked on. 90,000 volunteers swung out across the swing state and knocked on all of those doors. you're not seeing that so much on the trump campaign. i spoke to somebody who was at that rally in pennsylvania with donald trump yesterday. they spent four hours waiting around for the president, trump, to arrive. she said by the time the president took the stage, hundreds of people were streaming out. the energy was very low at that campaign, that he, himself, seemed low energy and not

particularly enthusiastic. yet, you look at her, remarkably, and maybe this is the advantage of having a short campaign, and maybe america should think about having shorter campaigns, but she still seems to have energy. there she is on "snl," smiling and having fun. there she is at her rallies, still smiling and seems to be enjoying the whole process. you feel that. maybe it's the numbers they're getting. maybe it's the exit polls they're looking seem to have th momentum behind them. an article in "the atlantic" is giving readers a look behind the curtain of the trump campaign, revealing the chaos and confusion of his third run for the white house. titled, "inside the ruthless, restless final days of trump's campaign." >> the author of that piece, staff writer at "the atlantic," tim alberta. tim joins us now. it's never been easy to run a donald trump campaign because you can never keep him in between the lines. we've heard time and time again, two, three months ago, about what susie wiles and chris

wanted to do, keep him between the lines. he keeps veering wildly outside of the lines, especially in the final days. what is it looking like inside of the campaign? >> yeah, joe, look, you know, chris lasavida and susie wiles had done a decent job of keeping trump in line. they'd established some guardrails around him. they'd built the campaign around the principles of restrain and discipline. of course, they're always sort of factoring in the inevitable outbursts, the inevitable late-night truth social posts that are wildly off message and that are creating a day or two or news in the news cycle. the day they were running the

campaign, it was just built in a way that was meant to minimize whatever damage trump may have inflicted. they were successful. around summertime, when trump was running against biden, he was starting to get a little bored. he was actually, yes, tired of winning, as he's talked about in the past, and america would be tiring of winning. when you talk about people who were around trump during this stretch, right before biden got out of the race, trump was polling farther away than he'd ever been in any of his three campaigns for the presidency. he was getting sort of almost restless, like he was wanting something else to do. he started sort of, at that point, talking in a way that was different, almost creating these problems. his campaign officials were looking at him wondering, why is he doing this? he is on the way to winning. that stretch of the campaign now has bled over into kamala harris

taking over the top of the ticket. ever since, they've been in a tailspin. >> you know, the thing i haven't understood, rev, when things started going well for donald trump, everybody around donald trump said the worst part of this is, when things start going well, he blows it up. can't stand success for whatever reason. you've known him a very long time. he's not just a chaos candidate. he's just always thrived in chaos. he's always stirred it up. better to be on the front page of any newspaper for the wrong reasons than not on it at all. you know, i've long said to people around him, if he'd talked about the economy in 2020 and just the economy, he would have won. if he would have talked about the economy in 2024 and only the economy, he would have won. but every day, he blows himself up politically.

>> he is always -- >> by the way, he can still win. i'm just saying, it wouldn't be close right now. it wouldn't be close if he'd stuck to a traditional republican, less taxes, less spending, less regulation, more freedom, poof, you win. >> he's always been more of a showman than a businessman or politician. he gets caught up in his own show. i think it's coming back to bite him. whether he wins or loses, we don't know. that's what it has come to. i think his lack of discipline, his lack of being able to bring it in. i told you the story, joe and mika, about how james brown told me when i was a kid, first brought me to las vegas, he showed me the lounge where there was a lounge act. this lady was singing. >> right. >> acting crazy. he told me, look at the audience. they're smoking, drinking, ignoring her. she has to be bizarre to get attention. >> right. >> he says, but inside, rev,

tomorrow night, i'm playing the main room. you have to be more refined because they're playing for patrons paying $100 a head. he's brought the lounge act into politics and doesn't know how to play on the big stage. people see an undisciplined campaign. they see he'll have an undisciplined government, undisciplined west wing, because he doesn't show the capacity to discipline himself and follow those that have looked and studied the things that he might make decision on. >> tim, as your piece points out, another sign of how undisciplined he is, he brought corey lewandowski back into the orbit. there was knife fighting inside the campaign because of that. i want to ask you about the other pressure here. it's almost slipped to the background, the stakes of this race. donald trump loses, all his legal challenges come back. he faces a criminal sentence a couple weeks here in new york.

again, he were to lose, the federal charges likely would be revived. talk to us in your reporting about that additional pressure that's on trump, the candidate, in these closing days. >> jonathan, i'm really glad you asked because i've had conversations with people close to trump over the last couple of months here, and this is the single most baffling thing to them. a number of them have said this to me in independent conversations. they've said, look, if there was anything that could concentrate the mind, if there was anything that could sort of finally get this guy to sort of bear down and really just tell himself, okay, couple of months of serious, disciplined campaigning, stick to the economy, stick to immigration, stick to strength on the world stage, stick to these sort of core elements of the campaign that we have sort of built this entire messaging around. if we could do that for a couple months, to joe's point, we would win and might win comfortably. if there is anything you would think that would concentrate trump's mind on doing that, it

would be this sort of existential threat of a possible prison sentence should he lose this race. yet, time and time and time again, the people around him find themselves sort of agapaga looking at him, wondering, why is he veering off? it's almost, as i write in the piece, like he can't help himself. there was this episode leading up to the debate where laura loomer wants to get on the plane, and jd vance is wanting to amplify springfield. people around him are just holding their breath and hoping, no, please don't bring laura loomer on the plane. please don't talk about haitians eating dogs and cats. nothing could be further off message for us at this point in our campaign. what does trump do during this pivotal stretch, september 10th, september 11th? both. he brings laura loomer, a 9/11 truther, to ground zero with him, and he talks about haitians

eating dogs and cats on the debate stage. folks around him just hang their head. they feel like everything they have done to try to insulate him from this sort of madness, it's just become self-sabotage time and time and time again. ultimately, if he loses the campaign, he'll only have himself to blame. >> the new piece, "inside the ruthless, restless final days of trump's campaign," is online now for "the atlantic." staff writer tim alberta, thank you for being on this morning. >> elise? >> jeffrey, a question for you. as the campaign is almost closed, foreign policy really is not a top issue at all. it is more about personality and less about the policies. what do you think, what have you seen about where the electorate is this cycle when it comes to foreign policy and the direction that new leadership should take? >> obviously, women's rights, abortion, the economy, these

things are -- in so far as this is policy driven and not personality driven, are the things that seem to be reoccupying people. i don't think people understand the depth of chaos that we will experience if donald trump comes back into office and executes even half of what he says. remember, you know, his effectiveness is mitigated by his cognitive issues and his lack of attention span. but let's just say for argument's sake that he decides that we're not going to -- we're not going to stay in nato and that he makes -- he sends the signal that we're not going to participate in the defense of taiwan. let's say that he begins his romance, quote, unquote, again with the leader of north korea. people who support israel believe that donald trump may be better for israel than kamala

harris. i don't think trump has any fixed beliefs about anything, so it is very hard to predict stability in the middle east. i don't think we have any idea how chaotic it would be, and i think we're not talking about it now, but we'll certainly be talking about it when he announces that he has no need for nato anymore. the entire post world war ii international structure begins to crumble. >> okay. >> and we do have insight into how chaotic it will be thanks to your work. >> yeah. >> and the work of michael schmidt at "the new york times." and conversations with generals and others who have told us just how chaotic a next trump term will be. editor in chief of "the atlantic," jeffrey goldberg, thank you so much. you know, willie, i want to talk about something that, if there were not an election tomorrow, we would have led the show with.

as far as i'm concerned, one of the great -- one of the great music arrangers, one of the great music writers, one of the great music talents of our time, just the brilliant -- i love his body of work. it's extraordinary. quincy jones passed away. this is a guy who met ray charles when he was 14 years old. i think he wrote a song for lionel hampton when he was, like, 16 or 17 years old. he played with count bassy when they were playing the sands ins. you can look that up on spotify. it is extraordinary. nominated 80 times, 80 times for grammys. of course, known best in this era for what he did with "thriller" and basically making michael jackson. >> yeah. >> michael jackson. he really did.

he took him to the next level. but just a massive, massive talent. >> yeah. i mean, quincy jones died last night at home. he was 91 years old. i started this morning writing down some notes about his career. it filled up an entire page. it just gets to the beginning of it. you mentioned his teenage work with jazz greats, ella fitzgerald. he did "off the wall," "thriller" and "bad" with michael jackson. >> wow. >> shaped his sound. a new sound that michael jackson brought to the world. i just actually last night finished watching, finally, "we are the world" documentary. >> oh! >> on netflix. >> it's amazing. >> to watch quincy jones run that room of 50 of the biggest stars on the planet and make it all somehow work. >> all night long. >> from michael jackson to bruce springsteen. look at that room. >> i have to say, if you want to know the genius of quincy jones,

great producers always say, producing is not about music, it's about being a good psychiatrist. >> yeah. >> knowing how to deal with these artists. but you look what quincy jones and lionel richie did that night. nobody else could have done that. >> it was extraordinary. >> he had the respect of everyone in that room. you start with that. >> so good. >> i'll do a few of these. we could do it all day. i did not know, he did "fly me to the moon" for frank sinatra. >> incredible. >> arranged that for that. on "beat it," on "thriller," quincy jones thought something was missing. had the idea to get eddie van halen to play a guitar solo on a michael jackson song. that became iconic, of course. let's see, did the score for "roots" in "heat of the night." "we are the world," of course. he bought the rights to the novel "the color purple," decided it'd be a good movie. what about oprah winfrey in a movie? said, what do you mean? he goes, trust me. there is something there. what about whoopi goldberg?

something is there. he saw will smith, a young hip hop artist, and said, that's a talented, charismatic guy, put him on a show, "fresh prince of bel air." goes on and on. he did bill clinton's first inaugural. one of the most talented people ever to walk the planet. >> there's no doubt about it. as great as he was, and i mean great almost underestimates it, he was a genuinely good guy. i mean, i first met him and got to know him over the years, and he'd talk to you like you were just some -- you were the star and he wasn't. >> wonderful. >> he was the only one i know that could really handle people like michael. i mean, michael jackson was his own guy, but quincy knew how to bring him in, how to deal with psychiatrist. you could talk to james brown and deal with frank sinatra. and sit down and talk to guys like me and talk about the movement. i think we've really lost a true giant in quincy jones.

his legacy, i think, will be something we couldn't imagine. >> mika was writing the story down. >> i love this story so much. >> on the nose. bob dylan comes in. >> for "we are the world." he's nervous. >> dylan is dylan. he doesn't hang out with other people. dylan is like a music god. >> he's like, i don't know if i can do what i do. >> he's looking around and like, i can't sing. all these people can sing. quincy has the idea, says, stevie, do dylan. stevie on the keyboard, pretending to be dylan. dylan cracks this huge smile. >> like, i got it. >> he's like, okay, i'll do it that way. quincy knew how to move everybody together. >> gosh. >> we were honored to interview him once or twice. he was just an absolutely wonderful guy.

so, so gifted. >> so gifted. >> very gifted. and knew how to take all the pieces and put the puzzle together. >> wow. coming up on "morning joe," are americans ready to see a woman become president? nbc's andrea mitchell is asking that question and joins us ahead with some historic perspective. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. hi, my name is damian clark. if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. most plans include the humana healthy options allowance. a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't

spend, carries over from each month. plus, your doctor, hospital and pharmacy may already be part of our large humana networks. so, call the number on your screen now, and ask about a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. and remember, annual enrollment ends on december 7th. humana. a more human way to healthcare. every day my patients do tell me how much they love medicare advantage.

they love that they get more benefits like dental, vision, hearing, and rides to appointments. they tell me they pay less out of pocket for everyday expenses like their prescriptions, over-the-counter medications, doctor's visits. with medicare advantage, they get more for less. and i found it's made a really big impact. protect against rsv with arexvy. arexvy is a vaccine used to prevent lower respiratory disease from rsv in people 60 years and older. arexvy does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients. those with weakened immune systems may have a lower response to the vaccine. the most common side effects are injection site pain,

fatigue, muscle pain, headache and joint pain. arexvy is number one in rsv vaccine shots. rsv? make it arexvy. believe it or not baby... arexvy is number one in rsv vaccine shots. you could earn your... master's... for under 11 thousand! master's degree for under 11k in less than a year. earn your competency - based master's at university of phoenix.

how he is handling the greatest names in music history, right? only one person that got away, though. whelen. stevie wonder said, let's do african chants, he was like, i'm out of here. >> yeah, tipped the cowboy hat and just left. >> appreciate you, quincy, but i don't want any part of this. >> i'm going back to texas. >> okay. >> willie and the boys. >> it's the best. former president barack obama campaigned for kamala harris in wisconsin yesterday. here's some of what he had to say at a rally in milwaukee.

>> if you are black or latino and you feel like, too often, your community is overlooked by politicians, except during election time, i get how you feel. why would you think the answer is to vote for someone who has a long history of demeaning and disregarding your community? whose family business was sued for not renting to folks that look like you. who cannot, apparently, understand how an nba superstar could be both greek and black. who suggests any mexican crossing the border is a criminal and a rarapist. who spreads fantasies that haitians are eating peoples' pets. this past week, arranged for one of his supporters to take jokes about black people eating

watermelons and puerto rico being an island of garbage. there on stage at madison square garden. do you think that is somebody who is going to look out for you? >> no! >> maybe you're muslim american or jewish american, and you are heartbroken and furious about the ongoing bloodshed in the middle east, and worried about the rise of anti-semitism. why would you place your faith in somebody who instituted the so-called muslim ban? who sat down for pleasanties with holocaust deniers. who said that there were very fine people on both sides of a white supremacist rally. >> tell you what, barack obama has been remarkable for this campaign down the stretch. >> crystallizing it, yes. >> he and michelle obama have been extraordinary. >> whoa, she's got skills. >> that's an understatement.

>> joining us now, chair of the democratic party of wisconsin, ben wickler. thanks for being with us. what signs, what data points do you have to show what things are looking like right now? >> it's extraordinary, looking at the data and looking at what we see all over wisconsin. there's an explosive, propulsive energy behind the harris-walz campaign in the final stretch that we just don't see on the republican side. if you look at milwaukee, where barack obama was just speaking, they have broken their records for in-person early vote. the most striking thing to me is more than 13% of the people who have voted early, in-person in milwaukee are new voters who have done same-day voter registration, also available where you can come in with your id, same-day register, and cast your ballot. in madison's county, more than 10% of the in-person votes have been from new voters. >> wow. >> this is a moment, you know, unregistered voters are never polls.

no one polls the unregistered. you assume they're not going to vote. we're seeing people come out of the woodwork because they understand the stakes for freedom, democracy, opportunity for folks. this is it. >> i want to ask about the way wisconsin votes. there's concern that milwaukee, in particular, could take a long time with absentee votes not counted until election day. we should point out, because donald trump, i'm sure, will use that to flame some conspiracy theories, that there was legislation to allow the counting of votes to start earlier. it was blocked in wisconsin by republicans. they didn't want that to happen. can you speak to what the count might look like tomorrow and into wednesday? >> absolutely. all over wisconsin, people have been voting with mail-in ballots, with absentee ballots. in-person, early vote in-person, and then they'll vote on election day. in 43 municipaliies across the state, including green bay and milwaukee, two of the three biggest cities in wisconsin, they don't report the absentee ballot results until the count

is finished in the central count facilities. in milwaukee, you'll see 100% of precincts reporting before you see the numbers that come out of the early votes in-person and the absentee ballots, which my guess is, are heavily weighted toward harris supporters. in green bay, they won't report anything until they've counted the absentee ballots and in-person election day votes. so that means you're going to see a red mirage, where it seems like trump is doing better than he actually is because they haven't counted and reported those absentee ballots yet, then the blue shift when the ballots are introduced to add to the totals. that could be in the middle of the night. it was in 2020. if you're watching wisconsin, look at, you know, the counties that are already reporting their numbers, like dane county, compare to benchmarks there compared to what we saw in 2020. you won't know the full picture in wisconsin using statewide numbers until you see the final absentee ballots get counted. that's the way the system is structured by republicans, who had a bill ready to move and

blocked it, that would have allowed earlier processing of absentee ballots. it's not over until it is over in wisconsin. >> let's be clear. i said this in 2020 on the day before the election. i said, you'll see a red mirage because republican legislatures in pennsylvania, in michigan, and wisconsin refuse to do what florida does. which is count the early votes early so you know by 9:30/10:00 who the winner is. but they did it intentionally in 2020. they refused to fix it in 2024. they did that for one reason, because they want donald trump to be able to lie if it looks like he is ahead. they don't want you to see what black people and hispanic people in wisconsin are doing. they don't want you to see what milwaukee voters are doing, what green bay voters are doing. it is deliberate to allow the big lie to get out of the gate. it's not going to work.

chair of the democratic party of wisconsin, ben, thank you so much. >> thank you, ben. >> this is so calculated. we were talking about it nonstop leading into 2020. going, there's only one reason republican legislatures would block early voting. in florida, you know, you will know by 8:00/8:30, 85% of the vote. let's say 60% of the vote. you'll know by 9:30 who won, most likely. because in florida, we vote to count the early votes early. it's the most reasonable, rational, logical thing to do. the fact that these three upper midwest states are not doing it is -- they're not doing it for one reason. because they don't want voters on election night see how badly donald trump is doing in milwaukee and other parts of that state. >> just from what ben told us about the turnout, it sounds

like milwaukee county turnout, which is so important and which, in 2022, the lack of turnout probably cost wisconsin dems the senate state, because the race with ron johnson was so close, just on that, what he is saying about turnout now. >> right. >> then in some of the more red counties that are getting more blue, and this mirrors what the marquette told us last week. dem enthusiasm in wisconsin. college-educated men, they are starting to leave trump a little bit. they haven't totally left, but those numbers are going down. it is looking very good for kamala harris in wisconsin. >> it's a tie. it's looking good, so it's a tie. >> the latest nbc news polling in the presidential race shows an historic gender gap of more than 30 points. nbc news chief washington correspondent andrea mitchell is looking into that part of the story. [ applause ] >> we're doing this!

we're doing this! ♪♪ >> reporter: could kamala harris finally break through america's ultimate glass ceiling and become the first woman president of the united states? >> the vibes are so good. this is history making. it's really wonderful. >> i love it. i think this is a historic moment to be a part of. >> reporter: harris, unlike hillary clinton, has, for the most part, let her gender speak for itself. but to beat donald trump, she's counting on an outpouring of women who flocked to the polls since the supreme court overturned roe v. wade. >> women voters being stripped of that fundamental freedom that they had come to rely on, it sparks an outrage in them. >> reporter: the gender gap this year is huge. 30 points in the october nbc news poll. in 2016 when clinton was running, the gender gap in exit polls was 24 points. clinton says women candidates still have to project strength but not too much. >> it's still hard for some people to imagine a woman in the oval office.

>> reporter: michelle obama sees its as a double standard. >> we expect her to be intelligent and articulate, to have a clear set of policies, to never show too much anger. >> reporter: harris often faces age-old criticism of women in power. >> i don't think she is a leader or a boss. i think there is somebody else behind it all. >> i think she is slick, but i don't think, overall, she has a great intellect. >> reporter: not all women back harris either. >> she can smile very well, but that's about all she does well. >> she laughs a lot. >> so it's true that women, like kamala harris, are judged by tougher standards than men like donald trump? >> yeah, there is a gender bias when it comes to judging women candidates. and it ranges from everything on, you know, tougher standard like donald trump. >> there's a gender bias and it rages on everything from policy to appearances. >> reporter: running against donald trump harris has the

extra challenge of countering his campaign's men gladiators. >> let trump mania run wild. >> reporter: eleanor roosevelt was asked if a woman could ever become president. >> some day. when you get to the point where you look at people in politics and in positions of political importance as people and not women or men. >> reporter: shirley chisolm ran for president. >> i hope my candidacy. >> reporter: women in other countries have won the highest positions. the question is america ready for its first woman president.

>> andrea joins us now with lauren leader and allistair campbell who served under prime minister tony blair. andrea, what are you looking at? >> i'm fascinated by this poll. i've known ann for a long time. she's rarely wrong. the fact that she was in the field last tuesday to thursday, she was in the field after madison square garden with all that raw language and all the racist language. after he said i will protect women whether women like it or not, she found there was a shift in older women. the gender gap she found is extraordinary. the movement since her last poll -- obviously, as she points

out, there's the six-week ban in iowa. what i was talking about over the weekend, if this is really accurate, it says something about rural white voters, older rural white voters. if this is the case, it could affect wisconsin. it could affect areas in pennsylvania that are not showing up in the polls. if older women are coming out and they're offended by the language, by the patronizing -- >> callusness. >> -- the vulgarity and the violence, that's his closing message. the closing message could not be more different. if you looked at kamala harris on "snl," the joy, the enthusiasm, her last rally last night, i mean, clearly they're worried about pennsylvania. i lived there for years. it's a problem. if suburban women don't turn

out -- in talking to pennsylvania people last night, they're going back not only twice, but they have so many volunteers -- >> canvassing like crazy. >> lauren, want to talk about abortion. i think this is related. i don't know if the poll included the vulgar language by donald trump that we can't really show -- you can't put it on social media. it would be taken down. for women who are seeing what could happen to their daughters, their sisters, themselves, to not be able to get health care, i think the vulgar gesture sticks. it's a problem to them if they're on the line. >> women have been drifting towards the democrats for years already. it was super charged by dobbs. any of the divisions that have been there that you saw in 2016,

to andrea's point, the white working class, noneducated women who vote for trump, they're starting to look more and more like harris supporters. independent women have been trending towards democrats. women repudiated trump in every election since 2016. they did it in the midterms in 2018, 2020, 2022. in every election i sat here and we talked about the polls that showed that republicans were going to do well. what happened? women turned out. it turned those polls upside down. while americans may be divided, it doesn't matter. what matters is who shows up. women are the most reliable voters. they outvoted men in every election since 1980. that's why ann's polls are an earthquake. it's waking people up to the reality that -- >> older voters. >> exactly. >> one time when i was campaigning i had a group of

students going why don't you advertise on radio stations we listen to? we said because you don't vote. i love you, but you don't vote. older people vote. women vote. the very people who are more likely to vote are on kamala harris' side. allistair, i have a question for you. as an outside observer to the united states, you have israel who elected a woman leader 50 years ago, india 40 years. great britain, three. thatcher. you even elected liz truss. >> that was a mistake. it was a big mistake. >> it happened. >> she ended not beating the cabbage, but it was a close call. i'm wondering as an outside observer, what do you think this race is looking like from everything you've seen? is the united states going to

finally elect a woman as its leader? >> i think so. you have to keep talking about it and there's only a day to go. i think the reason why trump is behaving the way he is and the reason why he's doing this legal strategy and the reason why the lies are ramping up and musk is becoming more and more ridiculous is because i think know they've lost. i think it's women who take it over the line. i think the abortion issue has really cut throw. the other famous thing is joe biden didn't feel comfortable campaigning on it. they feel comfortable. the thing about trump -- he's fascinating. he does things every single day that would have disqualified any -- >> anyone. >> -- or any leaders in other countries. it's deeper than trump being men

and women. it goes to what's happened to american culture. >> what has happened? >> i thought they were going to -- i think populism -- we watch interviewed. we have populism in britain. we had it with johnson, but johnson's been spat out. people have seen through it. he's gone. now he's touring the world and not successfully selling a book. he's got no way back. it stuns us that trump has come back. it stuns us that he's even in the race and he can do the gesture you talked about. any other politician anywhere in the world, they're dead. >> even applying for a job. >> 34 felons disqualifies -- >> you have evangelicals who are

saying he's jesus' candidates. >> you talk about people who joke about people being shot, what church pew do they sit in? there's the behavior of trump and the policy ideas. if you're a member of nato, you're watching carefully the election tomorrow night? >> if you're sitting in ukraine, you're watching polls in iowa. you're aware of that "des moines register" poll and hoping it's right. america first probably means europe last and donald trump has an antipathy. allistair, you mentioned the world is stunned by the fact that trump can even emerge.

let's say kamala harris wins tomorrow as you're predicting. does stop of that stunningness still exist? when joe biden was elected in 2020, i heard that's great. what do you think it means to the rest of the world? >> this is what i was getting at earlier. i think something deeper has changed. the fact that everybody talks about trump so much means you don't focus enough on some of the underlying issues. joe biden who i thought -- i love joe biden to bits. i was sat went the way he did and so forth, but he was an america first in a lot of his foreign policy. i think europe looks at america sometimes and thinks that america doesn't really understand or appreciate the extent to which what you do here and how you vote here really, really matters to the rest of

the world. i'm always stunned when i come here. you made this point earlier. how little foreign policy is part of the debate. how little any policy is part of the debate because trump just exhausts everybody and takes the oxygen out. everything he's done -- he's normalized the abnormal in so many ways. once the abnormal is normalized very hard to get it back. >> allistair campbell, thank you very much. andrea mitchell, final thought? is this the moment america elects a woman president? >> i wouldn't predict anything, as none of us would. there are more women who are college educated in places like iowa and wisconsin. it's a cross-current, more college educated people vote democratic. that's part of this gender gap. it's phenomenal, extraordinary, historic. what you're seeing, i think, is all about the supreme court.

let me just say, quincy jones -- >> they loved your conversation. >> i loved the top of the show. he was so wonderful. he was working with my husband. they used to talk -- he knew everything my husband had done when he was in a jazz band in the '50s. he knew all that and was great on college campuses, great with the kids. he was a great guy. >> lauren leader, thank you as well. coming up, the chairs of three key democratic committees will join us to talk early voting and the crucial races in the house and senate. we'll go through the closing messages on the economy from both candidates. our third hour starts right now. america is ready. america is ready for a fresh start, ready for a new way forward where we see our fellow

americans not as an enemy, but as a neighbor. i pledge to seek common ground and common sense solutions to the challenges you face. i am not looking to score political points. i am looking to make progress. for anyone who hasn't voted yet, first of all, no judgment. please do get to it. [ laughter ] >> i don't really laugh like that, do i? >> little bit. >> we are ready for a president who know that is the true measure of a leader is not based on who you beat down. it's based on who you lift up. this is someone who is increasing unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with

grievance and the man is out for unchecked power. in less than 90 days it's either going to be me or him in office. >> kamala, talk my palmala. the american people want to stop the chaos. >> and end the dramala. >> get back in our pajamas and watch a rom-comala. >> we are done with the fear and division. we are exhausted with it. your vote is your voice. your voice is your power. i pledge to you to be a president for all americans.

>> for all americans. >> i love some of the closing messages from vice president kamala harris over the final weekend of the 2024 presidential campaign. >> i mean, it was a very uniting message. >> joyful, uniting, clear. >> that's what candidates do at the end. >> at the end you want to bring it together. >> they reach their arms out, willie, across the fruited plains, across the rolling hills of the republic and say come to me e pluribus unum. that's what you say. she hit all her marks. she's talking about bringing america together, being a president to all americans, the sort of things americans have long said they wanted. consensus, compromise, unity. that's a message that every politician as they're ramping

up -- >> well, here is what we heard and saw from former president donald trump. >> did he do the same? >> the image of our country is terrible. it's terrible. it's a failed country. that's what it is. they view us as a nation in decline, even worse, they view us as a failed country. kamala's closing message to america is that she hates you. i think she does. the day that i left i shouldn't have left. i mean, honestly, we did so well. that white -- beautiful white skin i have would be nice and tan. i got the whitest skin because i never have time to go out in the sun. i have that beautiful white -- you know what, it could have been beautiful tan. i have this piece of glass here but only really over here is the

fake news. and to get me somebody would have to shoot through the fake news and i don't mind that so much. i consider myself to be the father of fertilization. it's a very demonic party. i come in and here's the problem. i had to go -- in lancaster they found 2,600 ballots all done by the same hand. in other words, the same exact penmanship, the same hand, the same everything. your team is very good. i would say the greek is a

seriously good player, do you agree? tell me who has more greek in him, the greek or me? i think we have the same. a little birdie told me we're leading in new jersey. what's that all about? we love new jersey. if you don't vote, you're stupid. you're stupid. you watch. it's going to be so good. it's going to be so much fun. it will be nasty a little bit, maybe in the beginning in particular, it's going to be something. >> speaking of nasty, did he really do that gesture? i don't know. >> there's so many things. >> along with joe, willie and me, we have jonathan lemire, bbc news katty kay and columnist john holman and host of nbc's

politics nation, reverend al sharpton. >> willie, so much to go over. again with kamala harris, she delivers the message that i think americans want, which is let's come together. i'm going to be president for all americans. >> move past. >> she's done it for quite sometime. donald trump, i couldn't write it down quickly enough. he was asleep on his feet in one of those events. he talked about america being horrible. he lied about, once again, spreading the big lie. he must be concerned about pennsylvania. he keeps lying about pennsylvania. says he's the father of fertilization. not sure what that means. >> come on. >> then he did a graphic scene, like he was having oral sex with the microphone and some social media platforms actually would

not play it because they said it was so obscene. you look at that moment and, again, you hear these people running on -- >> they called it sensitive content. >> they're saying, oh, he's going to save christians. he's sent by jesus. >> protector of women. >> protector of women and all this stuff. all the lies were just stunning and he's -- i don't know that i've ever seen as much contrast in a closing message, not just on energy and on vitality and on vigor, but also just the overall message of hope, optimism versus pessimism, grimness. again, two days after he called to have liz cheney shot by a firing squad, talking about how he wouldn't mind if the press got shot. >> yeah. he said i wouldn't mind that.

you would have to shoot through the fake news to get to me and he wouldn't have a problem with that. start with the superficial which is this was -- when joe biden was the candidate, a contrast that donald trump was young and vital. watch those two sets of rallies and tell me which candidate is young and vital. who looks exhausted? the second and perhaps more important piece is you didn't hear one word in any of those rallies from trump about the people, about the people whose vote he wants. >> yeah. >> all about him. >> so funny you say that. there was one rally where he said -- all the seats are here. the cameraman panned around and you saw all these empty seats. i saw something else as he was talking about himself and his grievance i saw people with their arms around empty seats looking around. it's crazy. he never talks about them. he never talks about the people. he talks about himself.

>> and kamala harris' message down the stretch, as you said, she made a final critique of donald trump this weekend and now has turned to, hey, we want to turn the page together as a country. we want everybody on board. she was talking to republicans, there's a place for you in my administration. there's a place for you in this country. "the wall street journal," joe, the front page talking about donald trump's final weekend. it says "dark pitch gets third airing," asking if voters want to hear american carnage a third time. will it sell this time? that's what donald trump is selling at the end. >> katty, the grimness over the past several weeks have been just the opposite of what donald trump tried to do in the last ten days of the 2016 campaign. when you ask people why did donald trump win, they say after the mueller letter he bit hit

tongue and stayed quiet and showed discipline. he finished quietly and got out of the way of the voters. here, if you go back over the past two weeks, you have donald trump talking about using the military, using the national guard to go after democrats and to arrest them. you have donald trump talking about getting a firing squad and shooting at the face of liz cheney, one of the most conservatives in congress during her stay there. this past weekend you had him talking about shooting the press and saying he wouldn't mind if the press were shot. and, of course, he again -- we have to say it. i'm sorry that -- i know there are kids that wake up their parents at 4:30 and say pour my cereal, ma, pour my captain crunch with crunch berries, i want to see joe and mika. they're saying that. i apologize. that's a long windup to say he

simulated oral sex at a rally -- >> twice. >> -- twice. it was so graphic that, again, a lot of social media sites had to put up warnings for it. that's his campaign. he seems more untethered and exhausted at the same time. the contrast -- the first campaign i ever ran the guy i talked to early on in the campaign said, joe, this campaign is about contrast. you're young. your opponent's old. it's all about contrast. you get into this campaign, i've never seen a greater contrast in american politics. >> this is not the campaign that they were trying to get trump on and not the campaign it was -- when they had control earlier this year and we were talking about how much more disciplined this campaign was, the october surprise was donald trump saying filters, what the hell, i'm

going to throw them away. that campaign with the famous microphone incident, he also said to the crowd, do you want to see me go backstage and bash some heads in over this? the violence in the rhetoric -- if kamala harris has the momentum now and we'll speak to ann in a minute, if it looks like women are turning out in big numbers, this campaign will be defined by dobbs and all the work and stories that mika's been airing all of last week and how women are hearing those, but also by the nature of donald trump. when donald trump talks about violence like this and talks about beating up his stage hands because his microphone isn't working the way he wants it to, that doesn't inspire a lot of women to think, oh, yeah, this is the guy we can trust with the nuclear codes and the keys to the oval office. >> coming up as katty kay mentioned we'll speak with ann

selzer. we'll run through the numbers straight ahead on "morning joe." like their favorite treats, toys and food. the best presents. at the best prices. for the best pets. for low prices for holidays with pets, there's chewy. let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives. it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪

never once did she visit. she visited one time in an area that had nothing to do. never once did she visit. if she wins, you will live the rest of your life as second-class citizens in your own country.

that's what's happening. >> in the other campaign, jonathan lemire, you would have had a candidate that had donald trump's weaknesses, like nikki haley, figuring out how to work the center and pull women towards him. the exact opposite has happened. we'll talk about some polls that came out over the weekend. one in particular people are saying is a canary in a coal mine. we don't know. a lot of people that know politic that is are saying that. if you look at ann selzer's poll, which ann is right 99.9% of the time, older women breaking away from donald trump. i wonder if looking at that poll and understanding how right that poll was four years ago, if that's one of the reasons donald trump seems even more unhinged this weekend. >> just quickly as we toss to you, i'm following another story

of an 18-year-old in texas a year ago, her mother took her to three emergency rooms begging for help. they gave her an antibiotic or something. the second one they sent her home. the third one, by then, the miscarriage was so -- her organs failed and she died because of these strict abortion bans. people are seeing and living and dying this reality of trump. >> we said on the show a few weeks ago, when the dust settles if harris wins, we'll say it was dobbs all along. we're seeing that in some movement right now. i heard from someone in the trump campaign about yesterday, said it was the angriest they've seen him all year long, that rally in pennsylvania where he was digesting the iowa poll in pure fury. let's talk data points. what's the big clue?

trump over and over in north carolina. i'm sure there's worries there, the fact he's going there over and over. let's talk about pennsylvania, the most important state on the map where vice president harris is spending her entire day. two data points. on saturday the harris campaign had over 800,000 door knocks in one day in one state. an unheard of number. while canvassers while out there, some of them reaching the same home more than once, which is extraordinary, they never saw any sign, any sign of a trump ground game that he outsourced to elon musk. >> yeah. so many data points right now. trump, if you watched him all weekend long, i'll tell you exactly what the -- it wasn't just that he looked angry, which he did sometimes. again, the constant projections of these violent fantasies, the

cheney thing, shooting the press thing, as he gets more and more exhausted, he just -- his id comes out more. they're all revenge fantasies, people getting shot. >> but there's the exhaustion at the end and the begging please vote for me. if i don't win after all this -- >> here's the headline if you listened to him. he knows he's losing. you can see it. he's saying more and more things that project not the -- he got asked -- >> i think he knows it's close. >> he got asked by jon karl whether he thought he could lose. i never heard trump say what he said. this is a paraphrase. it was basically, yeah, you know, you could lose. you know, sometimes it feels good for us. i think we're going to win. i don't know. you could lose. he said you could lose. it's possible you could lose

eight times, which is not a thing trump would ever say. >> i'll say what i've been saying for months. this race is tied. this race is tied. the only difference, rev, is donald trump has had people around him for three months -- it's like a fight corner for a fight. yeah, champ. you're the greatest, champ. they've been telling him you've got this in the bag. i've never seen such arrogance in all my life. people reporting on this campaign have never seen a campaign so sure they were going to wipe out their opponent as this campaign. donald trump's heard that and he was sure he was going to win easily. then this weekend as polls starting breaking, suddenly he understands, this is still a fight. >> right. >> i don't think that donald trump thinks, oh, i'm going to lose. i think donald trump for the first time is saying, oh, my god my people were lying to me all along. they lied to me all along and

oversold it. i'm in a dog fight. this is -- this is going to be a rough rumble to the very end politically. coming up the chairman of dnc jaime harrison is standing by with his closing message to democrats. that conversation straight ahead on "morning joe." diffic and could be peyronie's disease or pd, a real medical condition that urologists can diagnose and have been treating for more than 8 years with xiaflex®, the only fda-approved nonsurgical treatment for appropriate men with pd. along with daily gentle penile stretching and straightening exercises, xiaflex has been proven to help gradually reduce the bend. don't receive if the treatment area involves your urethra; or if you're allergic to any of the ingredients. may cause serious side effects, including: penile fracture or other serious injury during an erection and severe allergic reactions,

including anaphylaxis. seek help if you have any of these symptoms. do not have any sexual activity during and for at least 4 weeks after each treatment cycle. sudden back pain reactions and fainting can happen after treatment. tell your doctor if you have a bleeding condition or take blood thinners as risk of bleeding or bruising at the treatment site is increased. join the tens of thousands of men who've been prescribed xiaflex. make an appointment with a xiaflex-trained urologist. visit bentcarrot.com to find one today. do you believe in punishment for abortion? yes or no? there has to be some form of punishment. for the woman? yeah. and the punishment is real. women denied care, unable to get pregnant again. traumatized. scarred for life. young women who didn't need to die. now, 1 in 3 women live under a trump abortion ban. and if he's elected, everyone will. there has to be some form of punishment. i'm kamala harris, and i approve this message. ♪ ♪

there has to be some form of ♪ ♪ishment. this one is for you.

♪♪ ♪♪ here is that new poll out of iowa. the "des moines register" poll has vice president harris up by 3 points among likely voters, 47% to donald trump's 44%. that's within the margin of error.

in september trump was ahead of harris by 4 points and in june he was up by 18 points over president biden. trump won iowa in 2016 and 2020. joining us is the pollster who conducted the poll ann selzer, she's president of the poling firm selzer and company. we gave you a big windup. if you could walk us through the poll, what you found and what's caused shift. >> this was a shock poll. i've been shocked since tuesday morning last week. i've had time for this to sink in. no one, including me, would have thought that iowa could go for kamala harris. what we saw there was striking, sort of elaboration of what happened with our september poll

where we had kamala harris closing by 14 points the gap with donald trump and our analysis then was that it wasn't that people are switching their allegiances, it was that more people were qualifying as likely voters. in september that's them saying they will definitely vote. and somebody asked me, well, is trump losing ground? that's an interesting question. you get out your calculator and work that out. he actually -- there were more respondents, weighted respondents, for trump by three individuals than he had in june. kamala harris got 85. that's because the influx, the bigger number of likely voters extremely went to kamala harris. this poll is an extension of that, that the people more likely to show up are her kinds of supporters. she's got more women.

she's got more older people. she's got more college educated people. it's ended up -- if you look at the graph, it looks pretty linear that her going from biden's low point in june up to now she has leap frogged over trump into the lead. there's lots of things going on, lots of things to speculate there. obviously we looked hard at these numbers to feel confident in publishing, and we do. >> obviously there have been other polls out of iowa. donald trump quickly criticized your poll and said i'm up by 10 points in other polls. how do you describe that yours, despite the track record, could be an outlier in iowa? >> i give credit to my method, my track record. i call my method polling forward. i want to be in a place where my data with show me what's likely to happen with the future electorate. i try to get out of the way of my data saying this is what's

going to happen. a lot of other polls, emerson among them, are including in the way they manipulate the data things that have happened in the past. they're taking into account exit polls. they're taking into account with a turnout was in past elections. i don't make any assumptions like that. in my way of thinking, it's a cleaner way to forecast a future electorate which nobody knows what that's going to be. but we do know that electorates change in terms of how many people are showing up and what the composition is. i don't want to try to predict what that's going to be. i want to be in a place for my data to show me. >> so, john, as we were explaining this week, as we were explaining this weekend and the people we're asking, so many pollsters get so many things

wrong in the past and are furiously playing with the numbers. the reason ann selzer doesn't have to do that is because she got it right last time and got it right the time before that. she doesn't have to sit there and go, is this my "new york times" needle that has hillary to 99%, do i have to crank it to 50%? all the polls got everything wrong in 2020 and 2022. they're looking at their numbers and saying is my data lying to me, have i got the wrong people? ann doesn't have to do that because ann was right four years ago. she looks at the data and puts it out there. people are asking what's going on here and why this outlier may be a canary in a coal mine. there was a massive swing towards trump four years ago and ann trusted the data and she didn't have to play games with

the numbers. >> the poll track record speaks for itself. it's why it landed with a thunder clap. to joe's point there's all this speculation about what's that hidden vote? we know there were votes not picked up for drop. are you seeing surprises with people turning out who may be for trump or for harris that weren't expected? >> nothing that we needed -- that we felt was anything other than what naturally happens in polls. we have some people who say that they are self-identified as republicans, a small number in single digits, voting for harris. we have less than 1% of self-identified democrats who say they're voting for trump. i'll just tack on to my comment here that this method is the same method that we used in 2016 to show trump winning and 2020

to trump winning. he doesn't like it now. it's not the poll. it's what the poll is saying. >> and the iowa six-week abortion ban came into effect in july. you polled since july and you didn't see -- in the first polls after july you didn't see this big shift towards kamala harris. do you think it's just that people are, as election gets closer, they're more motivated by the issue of abortion? how do you explain that? >> yes, the gender gap is definitely -- you see it here. kamala harris wins with women more than she loses with men. that ends up there. the very best demographic for her is women age 65 and over. her margin is more than two to one with that group. so we did see this dynamic in

our september poll that people were coming off the bench and getting in the game and her -- she decreased the margin by 14 points. that was really kind of the thunder clap we thought we were going to see. it's independent women. it's women 65 and over. the poll in june where we had biden down 18, this is before the fetal heart beat bill went into effect and the september poll has been in effect. we don't have -- we can't close the loop on this. we don't have proper data to do more than that. we know the majority of the state sees -- thinks that abortion in most or all cases should be legal and that the majority are opposed to the six-week ban. so it's not -- it's not exactly apples to apples, but the mood of the state is clearly more in

favor of different laws on abortion. i'll make one more point. that's at the congressional district level. the first district we have republican incumbents in all four districts. the first district is like a 20-point lead for the democratic challenger. washington has been a big part of that race. >> gosh. >> ann, there's been tons of spending in those congressional races, mostly abortion focus. let me ask you quick. i'm not a mathematician. 47 plus 44 gets you to 91. you have 2% undecided and 7% i don't understand. what's that 9% that's still out there that's left to be counted in the iowa electorate? >> thank you, john, for pointing that out. neither candidate is getting to 90% in our poll.

some of that 3% is going for robert f. kennedy jr. who appears on our ballot. the rest are a mix of people who say they're going to vote for someone else, some people who say they're not sure and some people who have already voted, but they don't want to tell us who they voted for. maybe those are all trump voters. you know, there's still plenty of things that could happen. i'm prepared for this election to go either way. i'll be okay. >> president of the polling firm selzer and company, ann selzer, thank you for coming on the show. coming up, the election of our next guest gave democrats control of the senator in 2021. senator raphael warnock is campaigning for vice president harris in his home state of georgia and he joins the conversation live from atlanta when "morning joe" comes right back.

san francisco's leadership is failing us. that's why mark farrell is endorsing prop d. because we need to tackle our drug and homelessness crisis just like mark did as our interim mayor. mark farrell endorsing prop d, to bring the changes we need for the city we love.

san francisco's leadership is failing us. that's why mark farrell is endorsing prop d. because we need to tackle our drug and homelessness crisis just like mark did as our interim mayor.

mark farrell endorsing prop d, to bring the changes we need for the city we love. on our screen right now i'm showing you donald trump. this isn't a democrat/republican battle. this is donald trump talking about executing one of the most conservative republicans in congress over the past decade. >> well, i can't wait to watch the cameras chase lindsey graham around the mall. >> liz cheney, she's selling out conservatism to stay relevant. she's not relevant in terms of conservatism.

she no longer has a voice. trump is going to when. we're going to win the senate. we're going to push through all this [ bleep ]. i'm not going to listen to anything she has to say. >> if you heard catholic mass music playing in the background, that was lindsey graham's confession. he's talking about republicans who will do anything to stay relevant. oh, my god. lindsey graham, i love you. you know i love you. it's the story of your life. it is literally the story of your life. anything to stay relevant. now, let's talk about really quick -- we have to talk about it. let's talk about liz cheney. she had a safe seat. she could have stayed in it for forever. she could have been a senator, vice president, president. liz cheney chose at a certain point, as did all true conservatives -- yeah, i count myself as one of those -- to

donald trump who was undermining the conservative movement. he was undermining the republican party and he was undermining, in my case, i thought he was undermining the evangelical church. and so it seems to me there's not really a whole lot of sacrifice in staying as close to a person in power as you possibly can. watching a january 6th riot, saying you're done with him, then being chased by three people and a hound dog at national airport -- >> it was a chihuahua. >> then immediately flipping. i mean, willie, john mccain, the last time i spoke to him, he was very concerned. it was valentine's day 2017. i was in his office and he had a lot on his mind, mainly putin. very concerned about vladimir

putin and the killing of a political opponent in the shadow of the kremlin. but he just shook his head talking about lindsey graham. you said you know lindsey. i said, yeah. he said that guy, what he's willing to sacrifice to play golf with the president. he wasn't mad at him. he was really disappointed. just shook his head and sighed. he could not imagine it. >> go back to january 6th, 2021 on the floor in the well of the senate saying it's enough. i'm out. almost saw a glimmer of conviction there. two days later he's going through reagan national and is hounded by trump supporters and flipped. james schmidt described lindsey graham as a fish who swims with

the larger predator, stays close to the bigger fish. >> listen, guilty as charge. i'm a pilot fish to mika. it's working out well. let's bring in the chancellor of the team who beat auburn. >> beat alabama and auburn for the first time since 1955. >> 1955. jon meacham -- >> it's a new way forward, willie. >> so help me god if you bring up the french/indian war -- >> i'm out. >> we're out. john, i'm sure you saw the top of the show, the contrast between kamala harris' closing statements, which i have to say for you and me, the way we talk in our nerdish way about what

government should be about, bringing people together, compromising, prudently governing and looking at your political opponent not as the enemy, but as a partner in negotiations, that was kamala harris' message. donald trump's message, obviously talking about the shooting of the press and he wouldn't mind if the press were shot and saying many awful things. making obscene gestures. seeming completely exhausted and beaten down by this process. i'm just curious -- first of all, your thoughts, your reflections? also, have you ever seen a contrast this dramatic in the closing days of a campaign? >> no, haven't. it isn't quite the french/indian war, but it's close. easy, easy.

what i did think about was 1800 when thomas jefferson was in a huge battle -- >> of course. >> what they thought of as an early -- all right. >> reset. >> an existential struggle and jefferson said, we have to restore the spirit of '76. they thought it was gone in 1800. jefferson was the architect of politics that t.r., lincoln, fdr, ronald reagan and vice president harris this weekend practiced, which was a politic of optimism. it was about america being the best hope, lincoln made it the last best hope and reagan made it the last best hope of man on earth. it was a gradual building up of the possibilities of politics,

the possibilities of the country. and, if you don't believe that politics is about possibility, then the alternative is that it's only about power. and i believe as firmly as i believe anything, that that's what's on the ballot. coming up, what will happen the day after the question. ed loose asks the million dollar question. he'll join us to talk about that straight ahead on "morning joe." customize and sa— (balloon doug pops & deflates) and then i wake up. and you have this dream every night? yeah, every night! hmm... i see. (limu squawks) only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ if you have generalized myasthenia gravis, picture what life could look like with... vyvgart hytrulo, a subcutaneous injection that takes about 30 to 90 seconds.

for one thing, could it mean more time for you? vyvgart hytrulo can improve daily abilities and reduce muscle weakness with a treatment plan that's personalized to you. do not use vyvgart hytrulo if you have a serious allergy to any of its ingredients. it can cause serious allergic reactions like trouble breathing and decrease in blood pressure leading to fainting and allergic reactions such as rashes, swelling under the skin, shortness of breath, and hives. the most common side effects are respiratory and urinary tract infections, headache, and injection site reactions. it may increase the risk of infusion-related reactions and infection. tell your doctor if you have a history of infections or symptoms of an infection. talk to your neurologist about vyvgart hytrulo for gmg and picture your life in motion. (♪♪) the best way to solve a problem

is to keep it from happening. (♪♪) at evernorth, we combine medical and pharmacy data with behavioral health data to identify members in need of care. predicting and treating behavioral health issues quickly... while lowering costs for plan sponsors and members. that's wonder made possible. evernorth health services

joe," democrats are hoping to retake the house and defend the senate tomorrow on election day. we'll talk to two top lawmakers in charge of delivering those results. when "morning joe" comes right back. will customize it for you. get your business out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

a bend with a bump in your erection might be painful, embarassing, difficult to talk about, and could be peyronie's disease or pd, a real medical condition that urologists can diagnose and have been treating for more than 8 years with xiaflex®, the only fda-approved nonsurgical treatment for appropriate men with pd. along with daily gentle penile stretching and straightening exercises, xiaflex has been proven to help gradually reduce the bend. don't receive if the treatment area involves your urethra; or if you're allergic to any of the ingredients. may cause serious side effects, including: penile fracture or other serious injury during an erection and severe allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. seek help if you have any of these symptoms. do not have any sexual activity during and for at least 4 weeks after each treatment cycle. sudden back pain reactions and fainting can happen after treatment. tell your doctor if you have a bleeding condition or take blood thinners as risk of bleeding or bruising at the treatment site is increased. join the tens of thousands of men who've been prescribed xiaflex. make an appointment with a xiaflex-trained urologist. visit bentcarrot.com

to find one today. they get it. they know how it works. and most importantly, it works for them. visit bentcarrot.com i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. i don't have to worry about a mortgage payment every month. it allowed me to live in my home and not have to make payments. if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access a portion of your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan can eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and put tax-free cash in your pocket.

it was the best thing i've ever done. really? yes without a doubt. these folks know, finance of america can show you how a reverse mortgage loan uses your built-up home equity to give you tax-free cash. it's a good thing! so look, why don't you get the facts like these folks did and see if a reverse mortgage could work for you. call finance of america and get your free, info kit. call this number.

welcome back. a few minutes before the top of

the hour. you know, much of the focus on this election is on the battle for the white house between kamala harris and donald trump, which essentially is a tie right now. >> this race is tied. you know, there are -- there have been members on the trump side for months, jonathan omir, who have been trying to say that they had the race. it was a runaway. i think there is a realization now, especially after the ann seltzer poll and everything, they understand this race is tied. >> the dynamics changed. by no means do we know he's going to lose, nor are they going to lose, but the race is tied. and i think the change here is their overconfidence has evaporated. over the summer and even in the windowarve the debate, the vice president did very well in that debate. there was a sense around the trump campaign, they found their footing again in early october and felt bullish about their

chances across the battleground states. that has dissipated to a degree. their campaign top pollster for the media and instead of citing internal data that showed them ahead, he relied on the real clear politics average, so there is a sense reflected in what we saw from trump over the weekend, an anger and worry about where things stand. >> willie, on the other side, the harris campaign, if you talked to them in early october, they would have told you, it's looking grim. a week later, they're like, okay, we're regaining our footing. a week later, we're moving in the right direction. and now, if you talk to them, and this has been for the past week, there has been a steady growing confidence with that team that they're doing everything they need to do. and what they have said repeatedly over the past ten days is, we would rather be where we are than where they are. which you take all of this

together from both camps, and what does it tell you? >> we're tied. >> it's a tie. exactly. >> importantly -- >> the data shows it. >> confidence in the harris campaign but decidedly not overconfidence. you don't hear any touchdown dancing. in fact, the opposite. they think it's so close it and is tied. they have to put their foot on the gas in the last two days. >> voters will also, of course, decide which party controls congress as democrats fight to keep their majority in the senate and win back control of the house. joining us now, chair of the democratic national committee, jaime harrison, chair of the democratic senatorial campaign committee, senator gary peters of michigan, and chair of the democrat, congressional campaign committee, congressman susan dell munay of washington state. >> great group. chairman harrison, let me begin with you for the big picture view of this from the dnc. you have so much to look at

across a broad map of the country. the top of the ticket is where the focus is, but critical senate races, down ballot congressional races as well. as we sit here on the eve of this historic presidential election, where is your head and how are you feeling? >> well, first and foremost, thank you all for having me. it's so great to be with my two colleagues who i spend a lot of time with. we probably have coordinated more than any other dnc, dnnc, and dsec and they're amazing colleagues. i'll tell you this, in close, right races you know the difference maker, it's the ground. it's that ground operation. it's knocking on the doors. just this weekend alone, 90,000 volunteers knocked on almost 3 million doors. 90,000 volunteers. there's an infrastructure across our committees focused on touching the voters, talking with the voters about the issues that are important and most importantly about our candidates. and so i'm really, really

appreciative of working with my colleagues to build up this infrastructure over the last four years and i think it's going to be the difference maker and why we win the white house, we keep the majority in the u.s. senate, and we take back the majority in the house of representatives. >> so senator peters, some of your democratic colleagues in the senate in very tight races, bob casey, tammy baldwin, sherrod brown, and of course, jon tester in montana. what's your sense of the most important races as you look at the senate map and how those candidates are doing? >> well, i'm very optimistic as to where we are right now, to pick up on the chairman's comments about the field operation on the ground. we're basically where we thought we would be in these senate races. we always knew these would be extremely tight races. we knew we had better candidates but you also have to run a real good campaign, particularly down the final stretch which we're in right now. so all those months of working, it's below the scenes, people

don't see it, people aren't talking about it. but now is where the rubber meets the road, and we have got incredible enthusiasm. i'm just talking from michigan. obviously, we're one of those states in the center of the political universe right now. i'm going to be out with some canvass launches today. yesterday, we had kamala harris here firing people up. the amount of energy on the ground in michigan we haven't seen in years. this is an exciting time and that's going to help our senate candidates across the board. these are tight races but we all know kamala harris will be as successful as we want her to be if she doesn't have a majority in the senate, and voters understand that. we're getting them out and i'm confident we're going to win, when this night is over or election night is over tomorrow, you'll see the ground campaign came through to win what are tied races but when you're in a tie and you're down on that yard number one or two, the last couple yards, you have to push hard. this is a game of inches and we're going to win that game of inches. >> congresswoman, i'm curious

what you're hearing on the ground. what are the biggest unknowns at this point, the biggest worries? >> well, good morning from iowa. i have been out here for the last couple days, and we have incredible enthusiasm on the ground. we are in a strong position to take back the majority in the house. and we only need to pick up, to net four more seats to take back the majority. and we have got three of them right here on the i-80 corridor. opportunities to pick up two seats in iowa. and right next door in omaha, with tony vargas, so we are -- have an incredible ground game just like senator peters was talking about. we're working hard to get -- turn out every vote across the country, and our map is broad. we have races right here but also in new york and california, in alabama and michigan and wisconsin. all over the country, so we have an incredible opportunity to

pick up seats everywhere. there's enthusiasm. there's energy. and people are tired of the chaos, dysfunctio and extremism from house republicans. >> congresswoman, obviously, the ann seltzer poll sent shock waves through the political class, through the two campaigns. i'm curious, what is happening in iowa right now? ann was on earlier this morning and also told us that in the state that has all republican members of congress, that there are actually races that have become very competitive suddenly. why is that? >> well, you talk to people on the ground, they say we are not a red state. we're a purple state. and folks are really tired of the extremism that they are seeing. and want people who are going to be independent leaders going back to washington, d.c. to stand up for their communities. and so there has been tremendous

energy on the ground. people are working hard to turn out every vote. and clearly, the abortion ban that was put in place here has also energized women, and they are turning out, and women are going to have a strong voice in this election everywhere, but definitely right here in iowa. >> senator peters, let's zero in on your home state of michigan. has a tightly contested senate race, of course, as well as one of the premier battlegrounds in the presidential election. what are you seeing there on the ground? here we are, election day eve, what are you seeing? what's moving voters in this last hour? >> well, i think for the same reason we heard from both of my fellow chairs is that there is a clear contrast for folks. people want to see candidates who are practical problem solvers who are going to work together, bring this country together. we face a lot of major challenges in this country. you need people who actually want to solve those, not folks who want to dwell on the past and talk about grievances and

talk about things that are not relevant to people's lives. and folks are fired up for that kind of future. people are optimistic and want to believe in a better, brighter future for everybody. and that kind of energy we're seeing. we had a number of rallies here. the rallies we have had with people showing up, i don't think i have seen the kind of energy since probably 2008, that's been a long time, when i have seen the kind of energy i'm seeing on the ground with democrats. now we have to get folks to work and i'm encouraging everybody who is watching if you're anywhere in the country, there's still time to volunteer. we have the structure in place, but we still need people to do shifts, knock on doors, make calls, because that's what's going to end up winning the race. if you can volunteer, please do that today, do it tomorrow. we're going to win. we just have to harness this energy and more than going to a rally. you have to pick up the phone, call folks, talk to your friends, your family, make sure

everyone votes. when everyone votes, we will definitely win. >> one more closely watched race for you on the senate side. that is in the state of texas where the incumbent ted cruz is getting a real run for his money from colin allred who has proven to be an outstanding candidate. headwinds for democrats winning state-wide in the state of texas. the abortion issue has been front and center in this campaign. do you believe there's a chance colin allred knocks off ted cruz? >> absolutely. i'm very excited. the momentum we have seen in texas just over the last few weeks has been remarkable. we have been investing in that campaign. i believe we can win. colin is an amazing candidate. you talk about reproductive freedom. it is definitely on the ballot in texas. particularly with more stories that come out of women who have actually died because they have not been able to get the reproductive health care necessary to save their lives because of the draconian law that exists in texas. women know that. they see it. their friends, their families,

they're being impacted by it. they know that ted cruz is fully supportive of the law that is harming women in that state. they know that donald trump brought this about. folks are energized. they're going to turn out, and colin is the right candidate to represent the state of texas. >> jaime, i will end with you. is that the issue ultimately that voters can see most tangibly because it is something trump has already accomplished? he's followed through on a promise, the fall of roe, which is now causing hardship, sterilization, trauma, even death to women in these states with these strict abortion bans. >> well, mika, you put your finger right on it. listen, i have been in texas and iowa just over the last three weeks with colin and working on behalf of the candidates in iowa. and roe is such a pertinent issue in those states. so when you put the right candidates with the right infrastructure and you have

these issues that just break across partisan lines, women for the first time in 50 years, granddaughters and daughters don't have the rights that their grandmothers and great grandmothers had. those -- all those things align, and i think that is why you're seeing opportunities in places that you probably wouldn't have seen before. so that's why i think there are going to be a lot of surprises on election night. we just have to put our head down, knock on those doors, make the phone calls and get people to the polls. >> jaime harrison, chair of the democratic senatorial campaign, gary peters, and chair of the dccc, suzan, thank you for being on. >> vice president harris and former president trump delivered very different closing messages over the final weekend of the campaign. we have two reports for you now.

beginning with nbc news chief white house correspondent peter alexander, traveling with the harris campaign. >> east lansing, are we ready to do this? >> reporter: overnight, vice president harris in michigan. >> we have momentum. it is on our side. >> reporter: that rally aides say her first since becoming the democratic nominee where she did not mention former president trump by name. another notable change, harris beginning with remarks on the israel/hamas war saying she would support israel's security and acknowledging the losses of the war. >> this year has been difficult. given the scale of death and destruction. as president, i will do everything in my power to end the war in gaza. >> reporter: the swing state remains neck and neck, and harris has faced criticism over the white house's handling of the war from some of the sizable muslim population there. where president trump has also been courting votes. former president obama also in the midwest touching on the middle east war, too, on a stop in wisconsin.

>> maybe you're muslim american or jewish american and you're heart pm broken and furious about the bloodshed in the middle east and worried about the rise of antisemtists. why would you place your faith in somebody who instituted a so-called muslim ban? who sat down for pleasantries with holocaust deniers? >> as she wraps up the campaign, the vice president is urging voters to ignore recent indications by trump that he might prematurely claim victory tuesday night, like he did four years ago. >> i would ask in particular people who have not yet voted to not fall for his tactic. everyone must know that their vote is their power to determine the outcome of the election, and their vote will count. >> harris squeezing in a surprise detour on "saturday

night live" to surprise maya rudolph. >> kamala, take my palmala. the american people want to stop the chaos. >> reporter: overnight, donald trump making one final pitch to voters in battleground georgia. >> i would like to begin by asking you a simple question. are you better off now than you were four years ago? >> reporter: trump spending the last sunday in the three states most critical to his strategy. attacking democrats. >> a very demonic party. >> reporter: and rallying in pivotal pennsylvania where the former president mused he should have never left the white house despite his 2020 campaign loss. >> the day that i left, i shouldn't have left. i mean, honestly, because we did so -- we did so well. >> reporter: trump also remarking on the bulletproof glass that mostly enclosed hip on stage, noting anyone who would want to shoot at him would have to fire through the reporters covering him. >> i have this piece of glass

here. but all we have really over here is the fake news. and to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. and i don't mind that so much. >> reporter: his campaign later defending that remark, releasing a statement that claimed his comment had, quote, nothing to do with the media being harmed. and that trump was, quote, actually looking out for their welfare. the former president also making his closing argument in a video airing during nascar and sunday night football coverage yesterday. >> just remember, kamala and her friends broke it. i'll fix it. most important election in the history of our country. go and vote. >> reporter: the mood on his campaign plane described by an aide as more subdued and focused. less free wheeling in the race's final days. in an interview on sunday, trump himself sounding wistful about the approaching end of nine years of nearly constant

campaigning. i enjoy doing it, trump said of his rallies. there's never been anything like it. >> so it's really amazing, mika. the campaign is trying to spin, again, that he says that you look at his words, he talks about shooting through the press. >> yep. >> then he says he would be fine with that if the press got shot at. >> he did say that. >> and everybody laughs. it's just like over the weekend, trump people actually had to go on other networks and defend him making crude motions, sexually explicit motions, simulating oral sex that most social media sites would have to take down. and yet they have to go out and defend it. oh, no, that's not what he was trying to do. marco rubio saying oh, no, he's not saying this or that. >> telling american voters you didn't see what you saw.

joining us now, award-winning journalist and author michelle norris. she has joined msnbc as a senior contributing editor. welcome. and good to have you on. also with us, cohost of the weekend on msnbc, symone sanders townsend, msnbc chief legal correspond and host of msnbc's "the beat," ari melber, and u.s. national editor at the financial times, ed luce. his latest column poses the question, what will happen the day after the u.s. election? >> it feels like about 100 days away. so ed, we'll go to you last. >> i enjoy ed's column. >> it's a great column. >> it just feels like it's going to be slow. >> let's talk about tomorrow though. i'm wondering, you can never pick up anything meaningful from the polls. they were wrong in '16. they were wrong in '20. they were wrong in '22.

and by the way, polls -- yes, they were. they said joe biden was going to win wisconsin and michigan by ten points. they said republicans were going to have a massive red wave in '22. they said hillary was going to win in '16. even in '12, gallup said that romney was going to easily beat barack obama. and everybody on the right, everybody on fox news believed it. so let's just put that to the side, and let me ask you what are you looking at right now to tell you what direction this race may be going? >> well, i guess i'm looking at two things. the ground game of the respective candidates and how their infrastructures spent this past weekend. because this is the weekend before election day. people are still voting. i'm counting the weekend as friday as well because early vote didn't end in some places until friday at 7:00 p.m. so getting those people out early, that's a reliable vote

that you know they have gone to the polls. and donald trump's campaign's infrastructure, yes, has lagged. but i think part of the reason the race is so close is because there are other entities that have stepped in. i'm not talking about elon musk. i'm talking about the republicans senate operation. i'm talking about the different candidates where there's overlays where there are targets for senate races and house races. i just saw suzan delbene and gary peters. so democrats and republicans are overlaying in some places. for the democrats, where the ground game is strongest for where the harris campaign is playing, ie, places like the seven battlegrounds, they're letting the down ballot folks are letting the harris campaign take the lead. in places like texas, the dncc and dccc are taking the lead. the democrats' ground game is strong. donald trump's ground game is

not. however, these other senate races and the house races for the republicans, they do have ground games. that's why folks are like, they're going to run away with it. i'm skeptical about a runaway. i think vice president harris is in the best possible position to be successful. the other thing that i'm watching are specifically what's going on in ohio and what's going on in montana. tim shealy over the last week, i don't know what's going on, but i hope they're drinking coffee, tea, and whatever else they need to spike their cup because not him going on megyn kelly and botching a story, he is the republican senate candidate in montana, republicans think -- thought very much so jon tester was on his way out. but one of his key stories about him being a combat veteran and being shot is now unraveling with his own words. the tester campaign is putting money behind that with an ad of veterans who are saying, and running it on television locally, putting a lot of money

behind it, and veterans are like we can't believe this man is lying. i'm watching the senate race. >> is this a story where he said he was shot in combat, but he accidentally shot himself in a national park? >> the story has changed many times over the last week, he said actually, i was shot by someone in afghanistan. and before he said he was shot by another -- a fellow marine. the story keeps changing. but the reality is, it's given tester something else to talk about. then you have ohio. bernie moreno, who is running to unseat sherrod brown, these are the two most vulnerable seats democrats are defending. bernie moreno, the prospect had a story titled the populist and the porch salesman. so i'm watching those. i think this is going to be close. ohio senate race, about a half a billion dollars has been spent there. one of the most expensive senate races. this is literally all over the

place, but democrats are energized. >> jon tester has closed that gap considerably in the last couple weeks. michelle, welcome to msnbc. great to be sitting at the table with you. you know, in our line of work we're asked all the time, what's going to happen. and the honest answer is we don't know what's going to happen. that's not being coy. that's just a clear-eyed view of the polling and everybody we talk to in both campaigns would tell you the same. so i'm curious in this final day what you'll be looking for as sort of indicators of how this may swing. >> as symone said, the ground game. the weather helps, the fact there's going to be good weather in much of the country. i always think about the hidden voters that the polls don't capture. i have been thinking a lot about the iowa poll released over the weekend. we focused a lot on older women and abortion, but there are a couple things inside the poll that might be interesting. the christian nationalists. there's a large evangelical population in iowa.

that put a lot of wind, going back to 1996 and pat buchanan, he focused on that group. i think you talk about how people reacted in the moment to what donald trump says if they're actually there. in their homes, i don't think they're reacting the same way. i think there are a lot of people who look at his behavior, who look at his rhetoric, his policies, and it doesn't match their values. and so i think there may be a drift among christian nationals who look at their leadership and don't endorse what's going on and the way they backed him. the other thing is the immigration rhetoric. there might be a springfield effect in iowa and other places. iowa has so many meat packing plants. john deere is there. you have got a number of people who listen to what he says and they say, wait a minute, i see these people working hard. they're members of my community. this doesn't match the rhetoric. he's not talking about people eating dogs and cats, but when he tries to demonize immigrants, it's harder to do. it's hard to hate someone up close. when people see that, so that may be affecting what we see in

the iowa poll, and that could play out in other places. and that i'll be looking also in pennsylvania and northampton county which has always been a bellwether, lehigh valley. with a large latino population there. and the latest univision poll that shows there's been a significant number, 84% of people saw those remarks, didn't like the remarks. >> at the garden. >> it's clearly going to affect how they vote. >> as somebody who grew up in the southern baptist church and went, you know, you go to church three or four times a day. i know these people, i know they reflexively vote for donald trump in '16. and they did in '20. and i'll just say, even after he accused me of being a murderer, people that know me, they reflexively did it. i would say, ari, january 6th, the madness that's been going on since then, what donald trump did over this past weekend. i could go on and on, but i'm so

glad you brought up iowa. and evangelicals there. because i was really struck by something that bob vander plat said some time ago when he was endorsing desantis. he said, and he's a big evangelical leader in iowa. he said, how do you get behind a man that no father, no mother, no grandfather, aunt, uncle, mentor would ever want their children to grow up and be like? and that's the thing that just keeps going on in my head. i understand people are tribal, but at what point do some of these people say, i cannot vote for this? because i tell you, i reached that state in 2015, and i know a lot of other people that i went to church with who did as well.

but man, far and few between. i wonder if this year there will be again that hidden vote where some people just go, too much. >> think of their daughters. >> yeah, i think that's a great way to put it, and donald trump has closed with a grab bag of disqualifying actions and statements that any other candidate would have a lot of trouble with. whether it's pantomiing a sex act on stage, which i don't think any candidate of either gender would get through easily, or as you just showed in the reporting, making a blatant threat about the use of political violence or murder in a setting where we have sadly and horrifically seen that type of violence attempted this year. so you can't say, oh, it's allegorical, and frankly, he's not known for allegories. he's not known for his poetic imagination. but it clearly wasn't allegorical. it was a direct reference to how

someone shot up one of those rallies terribly and what if that happened again and this time they hit journalists. you could take the bizarre, baroque, sexual content or you can take the very direct violent rhetoric, or the reference to, i wish i didn't leave the white house, which is a reference to closing -- >> i should have never left the white house. i should have just holed up inside. >> closing on endorsing his own failed coup. i think all of that is there for the taking. the big thing about campaigns we all know, they start out on money and message. they end on the map. he's in north carolina, that suggests some kind of defense. but harris is in michigan and p.a., which are probably both must-win for her. the map shows what we have been talking about and what we started the morning with, which is it's still tied. >> we're going to get to the comment about violence and trump saying he never should have left in a moment with ed luce. but first, three failed republican candidates for senate in georgia since 2020.

david perdue, kelly loeffler, and herschel walker, all took the stage to back former president trump at his macon, georgia, rally yesterday. >> it is time for it to stop, and it stops on tuesday when we get to the polls and we vote for my friend and your friend, donald trump jr. donald trump, donald j. trump. >> if you voted you're not done. you have to get other people to vote. get people you go to church with, peoplia party with, people you know. people you like, people you don't like. i don't care. take them all. >> we are going to turn out and make sure he can tell kamala harris, kamala, you're fired. >> ke-lly. i don't know how to pronounce your name. despite the fact i have pronounced your name a million times. let's work on it. kamala. can you do that?

come on. kamala. come on. give me a break. >> anyway, let's bring in now the democrat who i think beat all of those people and about 14 people behind them in the crowd. senator raphael warnock of georgia. he's a surrogate for the harris/walz campaign. senator, thanks so much for being with us. what's georgia looking like? >> good morning. it's great to be with you. look, i'm feeling good. welcome to battleground georgia. this race will be tight. as were all of my how many, five races, but i beat two of those folks you saw on the stage. and we're going to deliver georgia to the kamala harris column. >> all right. ed luce is with us, financial times' ed luce is with us and has a question. >> senator, good to see you. compared to 2020, what has georgia done to improve its

election integrity since then? how do you measure georgia 2024's machinery against the last time? >> listen, the most important thing for folks to do right now is to show up to the polls. i am heartened by the historic early vote turnout that we have seen. and but the reality is this election will be decided tomorrow. and so if folks haven't voted already, they need to show up, they need to make sure everybody in their circle shows up. yes, there have been some machinations around elections here in georgia. we're no stranger to that. we watched maga members of the state board of elections try some tricks, literally, while people were voting in the very last hour. thankfully, the court slapped those things down. and it will not stand. we will be vigilant in court. there are folks who operate in that lane, but i think the folks who are watching me who are asking, what can i do?

you can show up. half of life is showing up. this election, again, will be decided tomorrow. the way to respond to voter suppression is to show up. because in a real sense, that's the effort, to so demoralize parts of the electorate that you don't even bother. i'm proud that i'm a part of a party that quite frankly feels like its fortunes are better when the electorate expands, when more people show up. we have a coalition that looks like america. and i believe georgia is going to deliver one more time for the american people. >> senator, good morning. good to see you. and a rally the other day, you sort of gave one of your sermons, in fact. you said, we're going to talk about policy, there are a lot of important issues but you called this a moral moment in america and went on to say, which fits into the conversation we were just having, a moral moment in the church, speaking directly to evangelicals. what did you mean by that? >> this is precisely that. i meant it, and i have been saying that.

this is a moral moment in election. elections are about the character of a country. and look, after tomorrow, this country has to go through some healing. ever since donald trump came down that escalator, public discourse in our country has been going down. and i just want to appeal to my pastoral colleagues who are on the maga side of this political ledger. i want to hear what they're thinking these days as we watched over the weekend talk about political violence, as we saw obscene gesticulations from a presidential candidate that caused some social media platforms not to be able to cover that part of his remarks. i would like to hear from my pastoral colleagues about the family friendly content of these maga rallies. and how they explain that to their children. >> all right, democratic senator raphael warnock of georgia,

thank you so much for coming on this morning. >> thank you, senator. >> thank you. ed, so what's going to happen the day after the election? we have donald trump, who it's fascinating, the second that we started hearing the harris campaign feeling like they were turning the corner in pennsylvania, donald trump started running around talking about stolen votes in york county, stolen votes around the state. obviously, that has just increased. >> how he should have never left. >> and yesterday saying that he should have never left office. he should have, i guess, what, surrounded it with military and refused a peaceful transition. >> yeah, it's really interesting. and maybe i'm clutching at straws but quite encouraing how incessantly in the last few days he's saying this is rigged and that they're cheating. generally speaking, he's been

trying to present this as a coming blowout. why would you do that? campaigns do not predict they're going to win big, as trump keeps doing. unless your logic is that if you didn't win, you have been cheated. that's clearly the logic of trump talking like that. i think what the senator said is really important. it's really interesting. the legal machinery, the actual sort of technical basis of how americans are going to vote tomorrow and have been voting in the last few days is better than it was four years ago. the state of federal law is stronger. there was a reform of the electoral count act. much more difficult for shenanigans to be tried in 2024 than they were in 2020. what is different between today is the information environment. so if kamala harris, as i hope happens, wins tomorrow, there's going to be two forms of warfare to overturn, to reverse her

victory. one is legal and i don't think that's going to get anywhere. the other is the information war. and the senator mentioned this. it's not just that voting is okay, it's that people believe their vote is going to count. well, if people are being told on twitter on elon musk's platform, x, stuff about tomorrow's election, i don't know the proud boys are at your local polling staz or there's a bomb threat at another, or this incredible sort of fake russian inspired fake a.i. video showing illegal immigrants voting multiply, maybe that brings the proud boys out somewhere else. whatever it is, the level of disinformation we are seeing in 2024 is way, way worse. and that, i think, is what to watch for not just on the day after but on the day. so what i'm going to be really scrutinizing is that kind of disinformation. >> the "wall street journal" telling a story about a former

sheriff's deputy from palm beach county going to moscow and basically being the king of russian disinformation, trying to impact the american debate. and trying to impact this election. and it's happening, and we see it happening. we see it getting called out, some russian hoax. so ari, how are we equipped in 2024 compared to 2020 for not the disinformation but just the nuts and bolts of elections, of the legal process, the legal protections? >> the good news is we have been through this before. the bad news is we have been through this before. so the coup plotters have only moved their goals and plans earlier. the republican party is embracing fake electors. they're talking about the stop the steal type language much earlier. people may have forgotten but in those first few weeks of november, it was a relatively rag tag disparate effort.

it was really only in december, as some of the other paths and legal paths closed, that we saw the launching of a january 6th plan in public and then we know what happened. so that's the bad news. i think they're doing it earlier and there's a lot more energy around donald trump in this effort, so were he to lose narrowly, say by a state or two, i think we would see all this play out. i think if he loses decisively, there are a lot of leaders in the united states, we're on a panel with someone who worked at a company owned by a very brave billionaire. just kidding, but there are other business leaders who i think in a decisive end would say we're not doing this again and we might see -- >> by the way, let's be clear here. those billionaires who couldn't stand donald trump but started to love donald trump when it looked like donald trump was winning, if he loses tomorrow, come on. >> done. >> no loyalty.

they'll be the first to say, oh, we must respect -- and i was never really for donald trump. yeah. just get ready for that. >> i think that is bad news for trump, and again, all the people who are in the reality based community, even if they saw an angle for money or business benefits, will move. as for the congress, the simplest way to think about it is if the democrats hold control of one chamber, it would be far harder even in the ultimate hardball to do anything. if the republicans are winning congress and they're magaified we could have much more on an on-ramp to a constitutional crisis, but i think everyone is more aware and ready. >> we saw on the information war that ed luce was talking about, we have already seen it. he mentioned that case in the state of georgia where a fake video from russia was planted online that was alleged to show haitian immigrants voting multiple times in different counties. to their credit, brad

raffensperger, the secretary of state, and this team as they did in 2020 when donald trump tried to get them to flip all the votes, said it is garbage, it's nonsense, russian disinformation. now that you know that, if you amplify or share this, you're doing putin's bidding. it's a lot of disinformation coming from russia, but the states at least are ready. >> it's hard to unring a bell, though. because people are so siloed and the algorithms know who they are and they feed them content, people are seeing things you and are are not seeing. it's very difficult, even with that messaging to get through to those people. when you talk about in the realm of no surprises, the other people that i think are much more prepared for what might happen in a disinformation campaign or an effort to reverse the election is the law enforcement community. not just in washington, d.c., on the capitol, there are a lot of people who were taken by surprise. people saying how could this happen, this doesn't look like america? now they know. this time, they're much better prepared not just in washington, d.c. but also in the states and looking for the movement,

because on january 6th, there was a mass inward migration of people from all over the country, and they're looking to see where that might happen, and they also realize that was planned. there were a lot of tactical maneuvers that were happening in the weeks before that starting in december. and this time, they're on the lookout for that kind of thing. >> msnbc senior contributing editor michelle norris, thank you very much for coming on. ari melber, we'll be watching "the beat" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern on msnbc. >> james carville, election eve. >> great get. >> algorithms. >> at the financial times, ed luce, thank you as well. ed's new piece is available to read online right now. and coming up, kamala harris and donald trump spent their final weekend on the campaign trail outlining their vastly different messages on the economy. we'll break down those closing arguments, plus, the winner of tomorrow's election will be tasked with keeping a booming

economy, u.s. economy humming along. cnbc's andrew ross sorkin and nbc's christine romans will join us to explain that. us to explait

one thing we know is true: no matter race, gender, ethnicity... the need to screen when due... for colon cancer's a priority. indeed! everyone 45+ at average risk should screen for colon cancer. these folks are getting it done at home with me, cologuard. cologuard is a one-of-a-kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45+ at average risk, not high risk.

false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. i did it my way.

the only candidate who can rescue our economy, and i mean from obliteration. and restore it to strength, prosperity, and greatness again. i will do a real job for you. i'm going to work my [ bleep ] off for you. >> at the top of my list is bringing down the cost of living for you. that will be my focus everyone single day as president. i will give a middle class tax cut to over 100 million americans.

>> vice president kamala harris and former president donald trump with some final economic arguments over the weekend. super different. joining us now -- >> one way to put it. super different. one person talking about shooting people in the press. performing obscene acts that would get them fired from any -- >> coanchor of cnbc's "squawk box" andrew ross sorkin is here, and nbc news christine romans at the big board. great to have you here. the new nbc news poll shows a plit in voters' perception of how the candidates are handling themy. what more can you tell us about that? >> there's been this huge disconnect for months about what the economy is telling us about how strong it is and how people feel. we asked our nbc news poll who is dealing with the cost of living? trump handily has the advantage there. when you frame it differently, when you say who is better at

looking out for the middle class, that's where kamala harris comes up. it will be interesting to see if the big disconnect comes to the polling booth. you remember when inflation was so high. we now have wages growing faster than inflation for about 18 months now. at some point, people will start to feel better about their finances but they keep telling us they don't. mostly i think it's the grocery bill. wages are up 20%, but the grocery bill is up 22%. you look at all these different things that cost more today. i have been traveling to all these swing states and i hear about how i want gas to be $1.99. presidents get too much credit and blame for gas prices but the cost of living is still a problem for so many people. but there's also this persession, remember when donald trump said if joe biden became president, there would be a crash in the stock market. conditions in the economy are strong. conditions for businesses are still good. people's 401(k)s are fat, their

home prices are high, but there are these little parts of the economy not working for people, and that's where they have been complaining so much about. >> that's the tough part right there. senior business correspondent christine romans, thank you for that explanation. >> thank you so much. so andrew, you know i always on my watch, i always have squawk on. i'm always watching you. and i look down, and i saw you interviewing a certain ceo, and asked a pointed question that we got no answer for. >> so we talked to john paulson this morning. the hedge fund manager, along with barry diller, but one of the things i asked is i said you hire people. job interview. if somebody came in to your job interview and pretended to perform effectively fulas vegasio in the interview on the microphone and then you got tapes from jeffrey epstein saying that, you know, he was

the best friend of this job candidate, would you hire said individual? >> good question. fair question. >> the answer is no for every ceo. >> but no answer. no answer. no answer, because what ends up happening is invariably that question gets asked and the issue of character gets dismissed. >> that's normalization of behavior. >> and they go to policies, and there are very different policies. economic policies that are going to be put in place here depending on who wins. >> different economic policies, and if you're a ceo on wall street and you look at those policies, the answer is clear. you want kamala harris for a million different reasons. the "wall street journal," of course, as you know, they have interviewed economists, the majority of economists say donald trump's tariffs plan, his spending plan, his tax plan wrecks the economy. even elon musk says, let him in, and we will wreck the economy. >> he talked about temporary hardship, and that is a real

thing. you talk about inflation. one of the interesting things is tariffs will increase inflation. the goal of trump would be to offset that inflation by lowering the price of gas, which we also showed. however, the ceo of exxon was interviewed last week. oil companies don't want the oil prices to go lower. they want to drill more, but how much more do you think they actually want to drill? >> the problem is, willie, as we have talked about all the time, the united states of america has produced more oil this year than ever before. there is a problem with drill, drill, drill. if you're already producing more than ever before, and oil prices have dropped from over $100 down to about $70 or whatever, at some point, you start getting to the $60s. and the oil companies go, doesn't make any economic sense for us to drill. >> bingo. >> we need to let it play itself out. let oil prices go up and then we'll start drilling again. again, to say i'm going to drill

more, the oil companies go, we're not drilling. if you want to get out there, you can, but we're not going to do it. >> it's an old slogan he's bringing back that doesn't make sense anymore given the fact the united states of america drills for more oil than any nation in the history of civil zaz, and recently, supply outstripped demand. let me ask you something else you have been covering in deal book two, which is interesting. this idea that crypto is making a bet on donald trump. so those markets have rallied a little bit. but they have dipped in the last couple daze. not just crypto, the bond markets have changed. what's going on? >> is this the one that only foreigners can bet in? >> the poly market? >> the poly market supposedly is only foreigners. there are lot of people questioning oh, my gosh. >> who has vpn services to watch the boston red sox and new england, but go ahead. >> people might be doing that with the betting market. we don't know, but it is clear that over the last 72 hours

things have shifted in terms of how these betting markets are now betting on this election. it's gotten a lot tighter in the way that the polls have gotten a lot tighter. we talked, by the way, last week about who is participating in the betting markets. it is a large majority of men. people who are trading bitcoin. that's a large majority of men. same thing with the stock of djt, and i say that because one of the big shifts in the last 72 hours that women are coming out in force to vote and maybe that is something that was missed by these quote, unquote signals earlier on. symone? >> i guess along the crypto, they're all spending money in the states. >> yes. >> specifically in the senate races like ohio. it's crypto that's powering the ads. >> right. >> they don't want to be regulated? they want deregulation? >> they want regulation light is what they want and the crypto burros are trying to get that

outcome and as things get tighter they're not sure where this thing is. >> tell us how wall street is looking at the race and also we'll hear from the federal reserve later this week. >> on the fed, that's easier. the expectation is that they do lower the rate by a quarter-point cut. that is almost baked in regardless of what the markets say that's going on. i think it is a jump all in this election and how that is all. the biggest concern is what kind of unrest, if there is any, takes place in the aftermath of the election. >> yeah. >> -- and when do we find out and how does that play itself out in the market and i don't think we know that answer yet. >> andrew, let me ask you this question. >> the ceos that you know -- >> yeah. >> that right now are running cover for donald trump and won't say the truth that they know to be the truth, i'm curious if -- and again, this race is a tie, but let's just say if kamala harris wins tomorrow night or

the next day and it's not a nail biter. would you expect those same ceos to come together when donald trump starts trying to -- to -- to lead up to the next january 6th and say the race is over. because they're going to have to deal with the harris administration ultimately unless they think the federal government --? i've spent a lot of time talking to people about this, and i think this time around it's something that worries me deeply. last time when this january 6th issue happened the business community did rally and they did start sending out notes saying we can't have this. i think this time frankly because how stacked the supreme court is and elsewhere, if there's any chance that the courts could try to reverse the outcome depending on what you think the outcome is that they would say, let's wait this out. maybe we will put ourselves in too much peril. i think that this group this time is more worried about being

on what they think of as the wrong side of trump if, in fact, he were to get into power. >> so all of the authoritarian --? tendencies -- >> is actually working. >> you're talking about --? yeah. >> concerned about the wrong side of history. >> yeah. yeah. they just don't want to be on the wrong side an autocrat. >> andrew ross sorkin, thank you for that dark -- gee. we'll be back with more "morning joe." k with more "morning joe. it's lying dormant, waiting... and could reactivate. shingles strikes as a painful, blistering rash that can last for weeks. and it could wake at any time. think you're not at risk for shingles? it's time to wake up. because shingles could wake up in you. if you're over 50, talk to your doctor or pharmacist about shingles prevention.

at humana, we believe your healthcare should evolve with you, and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare supplement plan pays for some or all of your original medicare deductibles, but they may have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. humana medicare advantage prescription drug plans include medical coverage. plus, prescription drug coverage with $0 copays on hundreds of prescriptions. most plans include coverage for dental, vision, even hearing. and there's a cap on your out-of-pocket costs! so, call or go online today to see if there's a humana plan in your area and to get our free decision guide. the medicare annual enrollment period ends on december 7th, so call now. humana - a more human way to healthcare.

(tony hawk) skating for over 45 years has taken a toll on my body. i take qunol turmeric because it helps with healthy joints and inflammation support. why qunol? it has superior absorption compared to regular turmeric. qunol. the brand i trust. what do people want more of? more “oh yeah!” more laughs. more hang outs. more “mmmmm, so good!” yeah, give us more of all of that little stuff that makes life so great. but if you're older or or have certain health conditions, you also have more risk from flu, covid-19 and rsv. but vaccines help keep you from getting really sick. and that, is huge.

♪♪ ♪♪ just a few seconds left here on "morning joe." time now for final thought. joe, i'll start with you. you have ten seconds. >> the race is tied. willie. >> the race is tied and most people would be surprised if kamala harris won iowa and does it say what's happening in other state, as well. >> symone, people all in for trump suddenly poll, hedging

their bets and if the women come out harris will win. >> the dobbs effect had been totally overlooked as it relates to the presidential and it is real for people. it's not a theoretical conversation each in iowa because of the six-week abortion ban. >> two stops in pennsylvania, and michigan late tonight. kamala harris, all day, pennsylvania the most important state on the map. >> that does it for us this morning. ana cabrera and jose diaz-balart pick up the coverage in 90 seconds. ♪♪ ♪