29 points for trump last time and down to 24. a feather in the democrats' cap right there bringing the trump number down further. we close out and we are basically done in fayette county. if democrats were flipping this they are definitely having a good night in georgia but harris has made progress. it is a big suburban county. harris made progress from seven points and sitting at three. is the progress enough for democrats? >> fascinating, and so down to the wire. we are coming up on a poll closing at 10:00 p.m. closings in very interesting states. nbc news projecting in the swing

state of nevada that it is too early to call. nbc news projecting a winner in utah, donald trump projected to win want presidential race in utah. nbc news projecting a trump win in montana. nevada win too early to call, trump win in utah and trump win in montana. looking at the battleground states, georgia it is too close to call between donald trump and kamala harris. pennsylvania, too close to call between donald trump and kamala harris. in wisconsin it is too close to call between donald trump and kamala harris. in michigan, sing it with me now, too close to call between donald trump and kamala harris. in north carolina, it is too early to call. in arizona, it is too early to

call. senate races right now in some of the states that have just closed. looking at the senate race in montana. incumbent democratic u.s. senator john tester is facing a challenger from the republican. in nevada where jacky rosen is facing a challenge from sam brown. that is too early to call. in the utah senate race, also lsconsidered to be too early to call. let's look at calls from senate races from the 9:00 p.m. poll closings. in new york state nbc news can project kirsten gillibrand will be returning to the senate and in the north dakota senate race kevin cramer will be returning

to at this time senate from north dakota and can project a winner in mississippi. roger wicker will be returning. this is the status of the senate at this hour. that is one flip they got from the rest virginia seat that was held by independent joe manchin. there are 22 uncalled u.s. senate seats at this hour. >> we don't have many more poll closings. we will have poll closings at 11 and 12. we are not watching them essentially for all of the news but for any one of the swing states to close in on something called.

>> the final polls were i think the final poll was national -- >> harris. >> what we are seeing is what it looks like. you take a national number and toss it around. i think you said it a few minutes ago let's be blunt. what democrats were fantasizing about is a land side victory. some of what was wanted and desired is a sweep that where in a 50-50 country they suggested something that would disallow donald trump to claim victory. the fact there were still people waiting in line.

that means we have to wait for the votes to be counted. now, what will start to be something that we keep an eye on, donald trump is against all of the votes being counted. i think that there will be a moment when it is very much up in the air when steve is still tapping counties. 34, 43. we don't have all of the vote in. i think it will be another test for the country and the patience. >> i think there is a reason there is so much anxiety. i have gotten a fair number of the texts. it is fairly shocking and i don't think something that should make us proud. despite all of the things we have seen in the last two weeks. even if you could forget january 6. even if you could forget taking classified documents and hiding them in your bathroom.

setting aside an accused adjudication of sexual abuse. you think about the last two weeks and the things donald trump has said into the tv. the vulgarity in front of families with young children. the threats for mass ss deportation. you name it. if all of that gets you half of the votes we need to take a step back and think what it says about us. >> going back to how the harris campaign approached this candidacy in the two weeks, they sat there presuming 49% of the country and built a campaign designed to defeat a donald trump campaign that turned out over 49% of the vote. you are waiting to see what came

win is what these folks envisioned to defeat a candidate where all of the things are true. that was baked into the campaign strategy to help vice president kamala harris prevail and assume that l 49% of the country will turn out for him. >> one of the things we discovered in the last few campaigns and all of the trump campaigns is that these two parties do not have the same rules. it is like two football teams where offsides wois a 20-yard penalty for you and no penalty for the other team. you know, want idea that if joe biden said the wrong word at a certain time or wasn't able to come up with the word that he wanted to say, the idea that it is worse than all of the words we heard donald trump say that he had no trouble retrieving from his racist thoughts about

people. there is no price for those. you won't lose a single voter no matter what you say. >> one thing, as steve kornacki keeps doing and his updates to us hiis striking. the rural and the urban divide. we talk about that every election cycle. i was talking to this strategist in north carolina. he said it is like rural alabama and northern virginia. we look at can the democrats and can harris run up the numbers. can they decrease the massive loss in the rural areas.ra that is where we still are.

it hasn't changed and maybe that is a look in the mirror moment. >> i think there is another layer to it, and i think that is education. i think what you will see is a huge divide over people who are college educated and not college educated. you could be seeing a realignment about the base of each party. there are warning signs if for everybody. if the working-class non-educated voter is now a republican voter, democrats need to rethink the way they sell their policies that absolutely benefit working-class americans and in a targeted fashion. i was at a union hall and the union voters working on infrastructure act jobs that joe biden and kamala harris literally created for them did not know who they were going to

vote for and that suggests the democratic party needs to do a better job of selling achievements to working-class voter voters. >> particularly since one of the candidates is bankrolled by a billionaire. >> exactly. >> we do have a projection. nbc news can project in colorado that there is a winner in colorado. that kamala harris has won the state of colorado. one place there is not going to be a realignment, black men. every four years i go through the ritual of talking down the world that wants to say black men are realigning and are all

going to run to donald trump. they are not the ones shifting. please stop saying black men. >> it seems like an outlier, wisconsin. but again, exit polling. >> exit poll. >> yeah. i want to go over to steve kornacki. a rumor has floateds it way to t me is that a bunch of vote ca in from zeno. >> -- arizona. >> suddenly what you get, remember, maricopa county where cphoenix is, 60% of the vote o the entire state is in and maricopa county, all at once releases this. more than half of the vote. what you are looking at here, because if you remember from be 2020, the story from maricopa

and arizona is very distinct buckets of votes coming in and have different looks. what you get first and what you are looking at in maricopa county, all of the in-person early vote and all of the absentee. the mail-in vote that was received by last friday. that is typically what you get here. what will happen over the next few hours is that they are going to count up the same day vote. then you are going to have the majority of the vote that will be in. they are going to work on the rest of the vote by mail.

if you compare it to 2020 joe biden had a high single digit advantage over harris in the initial batch in maricopa county. the story in 2020 is trump playing comeback. also, the other big population center in arizona. this is the more democratic of the two counties. biden, you can see where he is. what is coming out later tonight is the same day vote. zone, if we get through tonight you are locked in for a few days of results because of the pace. the question here is if somebody gets a clear advantage, half the

vote has been counted out. we will see in the coming hours if there is clear separation otherwise it could take time in arizona. i want to return to pennsylvania. i think we have a big development in part of the story we have been following all night. scranton, the heart of northeast pennsylvania. a very contested region politically. the question has been where this will land at. this is probably it in lackawanna county. kamala harris winning it by three points over donald trump, but remember we were using it as a gauge because in 2020 joe biden won it by eight and a half points and won the state. 2016 donald trump lost it by 3.5 points. this was a winning combination for donald trump.

tonight at 3-1 points his loss is a little bit less than the 2016 margin. would donald trump get back to his 2016 level. this, i am flagging it for you. we said we would use it as a bellwether. we now have an answer. luzerne county. slowly getting the same day, the election day vote counted up. trump needs to hit this number and surpass it.

another thing to note here. that is what you are looking at here. harris is going to win this thing in a landslide. the question in philadelphia is the margin. joe biden lost ground in philadelphia. do democrats win it back? you can see biden won that and right now it is 79-20. the key is this. i am saying the same day vote because we know the same day vote is favoring republicans.

there is an expectation that it is the best numbers for trump. the twist in philadelphia is they still have tens of thousands of vote by mail ballots. they expect by midnight they are going to release a second batch. we are going to follow this and see if trump maintain this is or even grows it. at about midnight, a very big batch of very democratic-friendly votes are going to come in. are the democrats able to hold what they have in philadelphia and win back lost ground from 2020? they want to hit the margin and

they want to go higher on that margin tonight. i was go to zoom out. that is trump's lead state wide. there is one more. this is cumberland county. why? you have lancaster county. you have york county. this has been a growth area for democrats. very conducive to the democratic coalition. democrats made gains here in 2020. this was a very good performance for joe biden.

that was a bad number for him. we just saw this happen. is trump go to gain enough where he hits that number. this is a significant part of why trump lost pennsylvania in 2020. we will follow that as it continues to come in and butler county. this is red. obviously it was heavily in the news this summer with the trump rally. believe it or not butler county in the trump era, while it is deeply red it actually has gotten less red. it is a bit of a growth area. the democrats, put it up on the screen here. this was disappointing for trump in 2020. go back and take a look.

he won it by 30 points in 2016. this is a place democrats want to make more gains. this is where it landed in 2020. not a ton but more of the same day vote to come. the trump campaign's goal would be to stop the losses.he stop the decline. maybe gain ground back. we are checking in on allegheny county. there is a ton of inner suburbs there. we will show you where it landed in 2020. it is huge as we said.

60% is where biden landed in 2020. start of the night we had all of the mail that was dropped in allegheny county. let's see if he gets back to the 2020 level. we will see if there is remaining vote by mail in allegheny county. we will check on that. these are places democrats depend on big margins. lackawanna county. >> we have a few projections to catch up with. a winner in the presidential contest in iowa.

donald trump is projected to have won the contest in the state of iowa. we have a look at senate races. nbc news projects a winner in the senate race. nbc news has a projection to make in texas. incumbent republican ted cruz will be returning to the senate for another term. nbc news can project a winner in the wyoming senate race. john barrasso will be returning to the united states senate and now nebraska. nebraska has two senate seats on the same ballot, which is rare. that is because this one is a special election. the nebraska special senate election is to fill the remainder of the term of the

senator. pete ricketts has held the seat since january and is running as a de facto incumbent. nbc news projects pete ricketts will hold on to that seat. now another senate election in nebraska. incumbent return deb fischer who is facing an independent challenger. the independent challenger, dan osborn and this is too early to call in this senate race in nebraska of the two that were on the ballot. this is too early to call as the other senate election in nebraska has been called for the republican incumbent. >> now with the texas seat staying with ted cruz, nebraska is the only possible loss of a republican senate seat that remains for tonight, and that

could be serious. >> are you surprised by the allred/red cruz result? >> no. you see someone look like they might be able to get it in texas and come close, but who knows. maybe it is next time. you can't be surprised if the democrat comes in second in n texas. you are not allowed to be surprised by that. but how much ground did they gain this time. >> it is the assumption that democratic change favors democratis. we know from texas, just because someone is brown or latino does not necessarily make them an aclight of the democratic party, and i think -- we don't know how it will shake down, but there will be really interesting analysis that needs to be done in terms of what coalitions are

being built intentionally or unintentionally. >> texas is a state when you talked about realignment. when i worked on the carrie campaign, he said he would be president if not for ohio. kind of how it goes. that is the state that determined that night he was going to lose. that is no longer a state we are watching with the, you know, on the edge of our seats. texas, and i agree with everything that you said is still a state where maybe it is four years or eight. that is a state if democrats continue to organize they are betting at some point it could come into their column. georgia, north carolina. those are more purple states now for democrats than ohio. over the last 20 years there is a complete realignment of the states in the country that are leaning each way. texas, i don't know what to call

it. the one democrats wanted for a long time. >> it is a voter suppressed state, and the focus of voter suppression is harris county. they are relentless. that is the largest single physical number of black voters other than cook county in illinois, the largest number of available black voters, and they are deeply suppressed in terms of the ability and access to the ballot. democrats will have to do a lot of work there. >> and this is the thing. you can't just reappear every four years. this is true. the reason why georgia is a baby blue state is because stacey abrams organized and then natasha brown. they all continued to organize and be on the ground. the reason we are even talking about north carolina, they have an amazing state party chair and

great governor's candidate. they are organizing there and not leaving and coming back. >> yeah. you have got people that have been in there trying to organize the state and change it.d the thing that is sad about my old state of florida is that organizing vanished with the money. now nikki freed, it is not a state that the national party invests in anymore. the money that used to go into florida went into georgia, north carolina and arizona. >> there are 7 million people that do not vote in texas because they know the outcome of every election. within that 7 million that don't vote there is a possibility that we will never to it because the electoral college locks it up. >> in florida it is 5 million

that just don't vote. >> give a ray of sunshine to california. california can determine who controls the house.ls i hope people are voting. they can still vote. if you can still vote, vote. there are states like that people are hopefully voting. >> to sin shiez what you are saying, in texas the unmotivated voter that thinks my vote will not matter may be thinking about the presidential race. the reason it may not be competitive in the electoral college is because of state policies that are voter suppressive, which you can change. change. there is a civics education and awareness and organizing effort that is about changing the way the state is governed so the vote will matter.

>> gary chambers has been doing heroic work and posts every day what the voter turn out is. this is percentage wise the largest other than mississippi. the voter turn out sometimes is 10 or 12%. people have given up forgetting they elected a two-term democratic governor who controls things like abortion policy. you might want to control who runs your state and think more about that. voters are not thinking at that level. t it is just regular chess, right. and again, to get back to the mama directed voters. my -- my -- i am not j.d. vance. i don't just claim it is one parent with the kid. our parents live in blue states. one lives in california. the way that i have had to lobby them to vote when they say my vote n does not matter.

i am in a blue state. explain to them that there is a ballot initiative on the ballot. >> shaming them on television. >> if you want your phone to work you have to comply. >> two updates for you. first on the bomb threat thing. the maricopa county sheriff's office issued a statement.d they say the bomb threats are not credible. they are investigating at the recorder's office. nine polling states and the navaho station have been allowed to remain open for two hours longer and nbc news is reporting the fbi is tracking and investigating hoax bomb threats attributable to russian email domains in georgia, wisconsin, michigan and arizona including

the navaho nation. we are seeing the impact of these things. not real bombs. nothing is blowing up. no violence is being committed here. this appears to be, according to the fbi, something they are investigating as a foreign interference effort. we have a couple of senate updates to do. there is a senate projection to be made in the great state of virginia. tim kaine will be returning to at this time united states senate from virginia. nbc news can also project that in missouri the incumbent republican senator josh hawley will be returning to the united states senate as well. steve, over to you. >> let's check in with north carolina. we will start here with 83% of the vote state wide counted and trump with a three-point advantage here, about 135,000 votes. we have taken you through it and they are reinforced the more

that we look at it. we talked about the rural counties where democrats wanted to run up turn out and make gains. they hasn't happened. the big, well-populated suburbs where trump had slippage where democrats would need further slippage, union county before. trump gained ground. this is a gigantic one outside of charlotte. he gained ground there. another county, johnston county. similar to union county. just outside of wake county. trump doing a point better than he did and harris doing a point worse. north carolina is a state decided within the margins here. republicans have been winning it since 2008, but not in landslide margins. a one-point swing towards trump and you keep seeing that all over the place. it really starts to add up.

greensboro, one of the big democratic vote producing counties. biden was over 60% here, had nearly 61% of the vote in 2020. what is still to come is the republican favoring same day vote. you are starting to see the lead that trump has here and the ingredients are the ingredients that he needed coming into the night to have a good night in north carolina. take a trip down to georgia. 86% of the vote counted. over 153,000 votes. he lost it by 12,000. we have been keeping an eye on fulton county. democrats need gains there. they can't afford any slippage. now you can see it. harris has fallen more than a repoint below where biden finisd in 2020 and trump improved by more than a point here. a county well over 1 million

people. that is a significant shift there. with more same day to come it may get worse for democrats. douglas county. cobb county. we still have vote to come in. harris now basically falling back to biden's level and the potential to slip further there. i won't take you through the individual counties but in north georgia this is the overwhelming republican part of the state. this is being repeated in county after county. trump is performing better. he won it by 75 points or so in 2020. he is performing even better in these counties. zoom out and look at the implications of this. if this continues with the votes to come in georgia and north carolina. if you just play it out, to let you know about the implications. if trump gets georgia and if trump gets north carolina and there are no other surprises outside of the battlegrounds.

we saw iowa called. with those two states trump would move to 251 ed electoral votes. within the remaining votes in north carolina and georgia donald trump is able to lock down victories. based on what i am showing you there is reason to hope for the trump folks that could happen. if trump wins he would be at 251 and likely in that scenario if he gets pennsylvania that would get him to 270. pennsylvania is a scramble. 57% of the vote is in. checking in as we get more votes. this is northeast pennsylvania. boy, there is a ton of vote in here. this is the area the trump campaign said they are going to improve on 2020. 2/3 of the vote in and trump is ticking up closer to the 2020

level. pennsylvania taking center stage. harris campaign always wanted it and felt they needed. if trump gets georgia and north carolina then pennsylvania becomes an absolute must for democrats. >> team, we have a projection to make in the presidential race in nebraska. in nebraska the electoral votes are allotted by congressional district. i need to be specific here. nbc news is projecting that donald donald trump will win overall nebraska but nbc news is only comfortable attributing 3 of the 5 electoral votes in nebraska to donald trump. there is a chance although trump

wins the state harris may get a electoral vote out of the state. we will watch. 3 of the 5 projected to go to donald trump per nbc news. joining us now from reno, nevada is nbc steve's patterson. i understand that even though we have got polling places in nevada closed as of 10:00 p.m. eastern, you still have wicked long lines there in reno. >> reporter: yeah. the polls are closed so why does it sound like 4:00 in the afternoon at one of the polling places. this is the county administration building.

they just gave a news update to the press. there are ten sites in the county with an hour plus wait and one of them is the university of nevada reno reporting a three hour wait. it is 7:35 right now. 35 minutes after polls have closed. here are the problems that come with this. mail-in and early voting and all of that stuff has been counted since 8:00 this morning and has been processed and is going through. in-person votes that were cast today that are still being cast, those cannot be counted until the last person in nevada has voted and we won't know any of the data until the last person in nevada has voted. we won't know anything, 0.0% reporting until at least three hours from now. we are hearing it is happening in other places around the state. not good news if you like sleep. great news if you are a fan of coffee. >> just to be clear, the long

lines if we are still looking at three hours. we are more than a half-hour when polls are supposed to close in nevada. if we are looking at three hour lines just to totally underscore what you are saying, the state will not report a single vote? they will not report any data until the last person has voted. even if they have a lot tallied and have been working all day and they have that stuff banked in terms of knowing who has cast votes we will not hear anything from the state until the last person is out of the line. >> you hit it exactly, rachel. it is good news.s. this does not indicate there is a voter problem and it does not indicate there is fraud or a problem with the system. t it just means there are incredibly long lines. we don't know if it is an indication of something that is a problem. the bad news is that we will not know anything until the last tiperson in nevada has voted. i imagine that person is in one

of these ridiculously long lines as we speak. >> if you are within the sound of our voice and are waiting in one of the long lines in nevada, do not be dissuaded. if you are in line, you can vote. if you are in line, you better vote. you already committed. you will never live it down. also you don't get the sticker. the shame. it is irredeemable. now our friend simone sanders. i understand you have a little bit of new intel out of georgia. >> yes, so georgia fulton county and gwinette county were both targeted by the bomb threats.bo to reiterate there were no actual bombs. i am told that it shook people in the state and counties in particular and folks -- i talked to three different people who

are familiar with the numbers and who are familiar with the boiler room. they say gwinette and fulton, the vice president needs to overwhelm biden's numbers and right now she hasn't overwhelmed them. by overwhelm i mean she needs to do better than biden did. they caution fulton is not all the way in. they are still voting. there was a converted effort in georgia in the counties affected by the bomb threats to encourage people to stay in line and to go back to the polling places. i don't think we can discount the t effect if you will that these threats that are not real. no bombs have been found to our knowledge. i am go to repeat what tom winter said. it did affect how people were feeling on the ground the day

of. >> simone, thank you very much for that. the fbi is investigating bomb threats in ngmultiple states. i have been looking at the local press from georgia. the atlanta institution is headlining concern that has been expressed s to them by the harr campaign about the potential effect of the bomb threats. there are not bombs, just bomb threats phoned in to disrupt and to clear out polling places. we have seen court adjude indicated and election ors decide to keep polling locations longer than they normally would. they have to be sent home if it is evacuated or someone deterred might not come back once the all clear is given. all right. at this point it is 10:41 on the east coast. we are heading towards a few more poll closings at 11:00, 12:00 and 1:00 a.m.

steve is just watching the vote coming in. steve, looks like you are looking at michigan right now. >> yeah. michigan, it is very scattered here, but there are a couple of big places i want to look at because they might be offering us clues. we have specific questions about counties that could be extrapolated more broadly. we flagged this one at the start of the night, oakland county, a big, giant suburban county outside of detroit. of the two big suburban counties, this is the democratic one, the one with a lot of college educated, higher income types. 2/3 of the vote is counted. harris is winning. her margin is inside of ten points. i want to show you what it does in the context of other races. in 2020 it was a 14-point win

for joe biden. in 2016 this was an eight-point win for hillary clinton. this wasn't enough to win michigan for hillary clinton. it was more than enough for joe biden to win michigan and right now this looks like this. do you remember the test coming into the night. one was to compare oakland to the next door neighbor mccomb. yet to be seen how it will measure up. one of the reasons democrats were able to win michigan and why joe biden won michigan is this. he ran up a monster number in a gigantic highly populated suburban county offsetting trump's strength in the blue collar suburban county. if this holds the trump people would be happy with. the democrats want it back where it was in 2020. one other county i think we can

look at here to get a clue from. this is just outside of lansing. at the start of the night the democrats would have said we want to flip the county tonight. it got super close in 2020. joe biden came less than a point away from winning it here. it had been a five-point trump county in 2016. the reason why joe biden made the gains in michigan. a big suburban county outside of lansing. biden nearly won it. 95% means nearly all of the vote is in and it has gone back to the 2016 level. that is what the trump campaign wants to see in counties like this. where they had slippage in counties they won in 2020, they wanted to get it back. we showed you lackawanna county in pennsylvania. they did it just outside lansing. here is another place they want to do that. next to oakland, livingston county. this is a mix of suburbia, rural

areas between lansing and detroit. more than half the vote counted and this was a bad number for donald trump four years ago. he won it by less than 23 points. this was a good number for donald trump. winning here by just under 30 points. his margin tonight is looking more like 2016 than it is 2020. this is a pattern that is being repeated. not a lot of counties in michigan have this much vote in. we are seeing it other in other areas of the battleground. the north tier of the battleground. pennsylvania, we had more that just came in. you can start right here. this is where redding is, one of the things iswe talked about. reading has the highest concentration of hispanic residents of any city in

pennsylvania. the national exit poll shows trump making substantial gains with hispanic voters. i have seen counties outside the battleground with a large hispanic populations where donald trump made dramatic gains. here with one of the larger hispanic populations in pennsylvania. trump, winning it by 13. four years ago he won it by eight. this is exactly what the trump campaign said they would do. it was going to take that and make it double digits. we check in on luzerne county. as the same day vote comes in, another county here with a substantial hispanic population and one of the highest in pennsylvania. trump has hit his 2020 number. he has a long way to go. we expect it to be election day vote and pattern and trend is

clear. you are seeing trump in good position in one of the big counties in northeast pennsylvania. take a look down here at cumberland county. we talked about this a while ago. 95% means basically it is all in in cumberland county. 2020 looked like this. it is basically the same. it is a fraction of a point different. that is a win for a trump campaign. trump won by 18 points in 2016. this is one of their biggest in the state. they wanted to keep it going. trump was able to stop the losses in cumberland county. that is something that encourages his campaign. we are starting to get erie county. the story we are talking about elsewhere will play out in erie. this is one of the bellwethers.

the name of the game in the final thirds of the vote can trump catch harris with the same day vote. this is just philadelphia city. i think this is a theme we see in multiple states now, the hispanic vote. why did trump make some progress in philadelphia in 2020? because he improved with hispanic voters. with 2/3 of the vote in philadelphia it is 77-21. that looks terrible. compare it to 2020. trump is running 3.5 points better in philadelphia than he did in 2020 and harris four points off of the biden number. there is more mail to come in philadelphia. that will be a boost to harris. there is more same day vote to come and trump is running above his 2020 levels there.20 where it lands, the trump campaign's goal in philadelphia is to basically get the biden number under 80%.

so far they are on course to do that. there is the wild card of the mail there that adds volatility to this. you are starting to see patterns in multiple states right now. >> steve, thank you. we have a few calls to give you an update on. first, a senate race. nbc news projected that in the senate race in new jersey the democrat andy kim will be the next senator from the state of new jersey. nbc news can make the projection in the governor's race in new hampshire. this is an interesting one to watch. it looks like it will be the republican. the next governor of new hampshire. one other projection for you.

this one in colorado. this is one of the 10 states that has an abortion rights measure on the ballot in colorado. this is amendment 79. right to abortion and insurance coverage, related matter. we are heading towards the 11:00 hour. we will have poll closings in california, idaho, washington and oregon. things are coming into focus but we don't have a single swing state called. >> one thing not trying to be rosie all of the time at all but it happens on election nights where the bigger cities where democrats have the bigger share of the vote come in later. there are a lot of places. grand rapids, michigan, a bigger chunk of philly. we don't know what they will be. we have to wait and see what they are before anyone starts drinking on their couch or whatever they need to do. [ laughter ] >> they are already doing that.

>> we talk a lot about national security issues, they don't get front and center attention, andy kim that you just mentioned he was a national security official, worked in the barack obama, we will see what happens in california with adam scihiff. we are seeing a change in the background of people that care about deeply about defending them and talking about them and elevating them. and we are talking about it one thing we talked about here was this thing on january 6th he took it upon himself to clean the capitol in the wake of the insurrection. also like, well, well spoken

and compassionate, solid leader. to see him move into the next tier of democratic leaders, leadership after the mess that was the bob menendez conviction. good on new jersey. you will never be sorry that you have andy kim representing you in the united states senate. that is a good one. heading towards california, idaho, washington, oregon, again, these are not states that are thought of as swing states in terms of the precedency but they will be really, really important in control of who is in control in the united states house. so, we know that a lot of the western states count slowly, particularly california. we will get our first look at those things in seven or eight minutes, steve? >> yes. we can tell you about, one we have been following north carolina where statewide you can see 85% of the vote now in. donald trump maintaining the lead in the neighborhood of 150,000 votes the big thing that just happened we were talking about the giant, you know, city, core city counties

where democrats need the big margins, waiting all night on mech mecklenburg county. almost all of it. harris, landslide margin here. but, this is short. joe biden won it, biden lost north carolina, narrowly but he lost it four years ago. the name of the the game for democrats was to make a jump here tonight. looking -- do it in the raw vote you will see it. 378,000. lais the number of votes joe biden got here in 2020. 179,000 trump. that is a 200,000 vote margin that democrats got out of mecklenburg county. not enough to win the state but the name of the game was to build it, drive it over 200,000. 90% in. still some votes still coming

in. it will change. but the difference is 175,000. instead of going north of 200,000 it is so pace to finish south of where they were four years ago. that is a development. democrats looking at north carolina all night wanted something giant to come out of mecklenbug. the other one, notable, we don't have all of it. in wisconsin nearing 60% of the vote, razor thin, again, one of the questions we asked at the start of the night, getting clarity, in the most democratic- vote producing margin county. dane county. almost 90% ever the vote in here. we are getting close to all of the vote in dane county. significance here, democrats rely on dane county in wisconsin now because they lost so much ground in the rural areas of the state. i said at the start of the night. every single presidential election the democrats added to their margin in dane county. they squeezed more and more and more and more out of it. take a look at this.

four years ago. biden wins dane county, university of wisconsin is here, by 53 points, margin of get that marker. 182,000 votes. name of the game tonight was to hit that number and go further. like they have in every election this century in dane county. with about 90% in. still votes to come. you can see how far short they are of that number. 149,000 right now. 182. this is the number democrats relied on. the question coming in. the wow counties, the big suburban areas. coming in the night they are red now, consistently red, how much less red do they get? we keeped in on ozaukee county. significance here, trump lost in 2016, he won the county but lost so much ground that this

was the worst republican performance in ozaukee county since 1964. it fits the profile of exactly where democrats could knock it out of the park. instead, 60% of the vote in. we will see what happens, but so far trump stopped the losses in ozaukee county. considerable, decline. consider since he became the republican candidate in 2016. now leading by 14 points here. those are big, big counties, significant counties, political significant counties where we have a giant chunk of the vote. we can see patterns developing, checking in, statewide, close to 60%, it is close there. statewide. but, you know, that, that is a county, a few counties where we have that much in there. significant potentially, what we just saw in dane county. >> as we head to the 11:00 poll

closings, jumping to georgia, blaine alexander, where the votes in georgia's populous county are being tabulated what can you tell us? >> reporter: well, rachel, i have an update on timing for you. i just spoke with the spokesperson from georgia's secretary of state's office. he says they expect to see the vast majority of georgia votes uploaded by midnight tonight. now, that certainly notable when you talk about the timing, when you talk about what georgia is going to look like. he says they believe the state is on track to have most of the results uploaded. so, let's look inside here in fulton county. as you mentioned, the state's most populous county. this is where the tab tabulations are happening. that back room is where representatives, from the 100 precincts come in, they walk this parade like route here. they walk through this kind of sectioned off area, this roped off area and then they come

over here to where several employees, several workers are waiting to receive the memory cards and the ballots. if you walk with me over here i will show you this area. they come over to these tables right here. we see them pull out the bags and scan them in. each person kind of scanning in what is inside. and then, once it is scanned the memory cards go inside what we are calling this fishbowl like situation, just this very large plexiglass surrounded area in the middle of the giant warehouse where the votes are being tabulated. the three people seated at the computers, those people have been in there throughout the night tabulating and uploading the votes. they started with the early vote. i think you hear a loudspeaker. these are people who are actually announcing that another precinct has come in. every time someone comes from a precinct you get a loud announcement. we see them come in. update on timing here as well,

guys, we understand that all of the results are here in the building. they are waiting on them to be uploaded. when i last spoke with the election's director expecting to see it happen by 11:00. could see it in the next few minutes as more ballot comes in here, guys. >> fascinating. news we can use at this point. the main voting center there. again, under scoring what blaine just reported. the spokesperson for the secretary of state's office says the vast majority of georgia votes will be in by midnight. which means they will be in by an hour from now. as we close in on 11:00 p.m. eastern and poll closings in four western states. we are getting close to the end of all of the poll closings here in the united states of america. four closing right now in california, idaho, washington and oregon. in terms of projections here, nbc news can project a winner

in the presidential race in california. kamala harris, california native is projected to be the winner of the presidential race in california. nbc news could project a winner in the presidential race in idaho. republican donald trump projected to be the winner of the race in idaho. up to the pacific northwest in washington state, the presidential race in washington state projected by nbc news at this hour to be too early to call. similarly, in oregon. nbc news says in oregon the presidential race is too early to call. let's look at the overall electoral college, the map, trump assistants at 214 and harris stands at 145 electoral votes. again, not a single swing state has been called as we are watching the votes continue to come in, in all of them. right now, looking at battleground states not called. this is georgia too close to

call. difference of 136,000 votes between the two candidates, pennsylvania, too close to call. difference of 119,000 votes. here is michigan, too close to call. difference of just under 75,000 votes between the two c candidates, wisconsin, too close to call. fewer than 30,000 votes separating the two candidates. over to north carolina, the race too early to call. over to arizona. nbc news projects the race is too early to call. and nevada too early to call projection from nbc news. senate races we have interesting senate races in some of the state that just closed. in california where democratic congressman adam schiff is facing off baseball guy

republican steve garvey, that race in california is too early to call. informed by the control room that baseball guy is not the right thing to call him. i apologize. i will revise that in a moment. senate race in washington state democratic senator cantwell, too early to call in the senate race in washington state. there is the senate at this hour. one senate pick up for the republicans, the pick up was west virginia, senator joe manchin gave up his seat and decided not to run again. a republican picked it up. 37 democrats in the senate. 15 uncalled seats as of yet in the united states senate. so, again, we don't have many more poll closings coming. we got one at midnight. one at 1:00 a.m., we got poll closings everywhere. i should tell you in arizona

where we have polls closed arizona is yet another state where we have had some delayed results promised. because of these bomb threats we have seen all over the country. arizona county reporting that there will be some delayed results for example from lapaz county evacuated due to one of the hoax bomb threats. the sheriff's office is revising of a reported bomb threat to the election's officers in bisby. county building was evacuated as a result. we are seeing and the fbi is confirming and local officials are commenting. secretaries of state are commenting on the effect of these bomb threats called into polling places and now counting centers. none of these bomb threats is thought to be associated with an actual bomb with anything actually exploding. there has not been a sign of

that whatsoever. this appears to be false bomb threats designed to disrupt. the fbi says in some of the cases they are attributable to russia. they are investigating whether or not they are of russian origin. we have too early to call north carolina, nevada, georgia, and michigan. >> it was always going to be a blue wall night. i tried to speak a little bit to some of the fantasies of a landslide victory that would eradicate the threat of something drawn out. that is, i am so low to quote him. liz cheney made it acceptable again. >> nope. not acceptable. you go to the polls with the country you have and the

country with have lives in two totally separated information eco-systems, whatever happens we have to understand information consumption young men have and why they think the economy will be better under trump when it never was. i think that waiting for these blue wall states to come in because they are so close because households are divided, right? there could be a yard sign in the house that does not represent how everyone in the house will vote in either direction. i think it will be a late night. and i think it is the polls. slice of good news the polls captured this dead heat. >> ari, since you were last with us i got nothing to report. [ laughter ] we have the swing states, too close, too close, too close, in georgia, and then the blue wall pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, too early in north carolina, too early in arizona and nevada. what caught your eye?

>> freedom is another word for nothing left to report. we don't know who is going to win michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. which means that when you put aside a lot of the energy and the understandable e exphoagz commitment we are in a similar place than we were a few hours ago. i have seen people start to jump on trends. but we don't know who will win the states. if kamala harris wins the states she would be in a path to win the precedency. we can see because we have great numbers from all of our teammates who rigorously collect this that there are other trends that don't tell us who will win the election that show trump out performing some of where he has been in the past including among some of the groups, latinos perhaps in the total national vote but the total national vote does not determine the outcome. that is what i am watching. pennsylvania there is a reason why kamala harris, they have

their own plane. they can hit more than one state in a day. she spent her final day campaigning doing all five stops in pennsylvania, the campaign, we heard from a lot of people that feel that is the path. while at the same time i heard interesting conversations at this table, the same time, donald trump over in places doing better among certain groups is a striking and noticeable development given the year he has had and how he closed. but yes, i will tell you the boring thing, the simple thing, the repetitive thing, we are watching those three states. and no one can project it. one. [dropped audio ] [dropped audio ] . >> i want to draw your attention to one house thrais is one of the house races that

we have been looking at closely in terms of it being a race to watch. there is new york 18. really interesting race. a very tightly divided district. pat ryan won his seat in a recall election. esposito was one of the young gun candidates for the republican party, served in the nypd for 25 years. democrat pat ryan will hold on to that seat in new york 18. also tell the control room i just lost my ifb. i am not one of these people speaking but can not hear anything. >> you tell me and i will tell you. [ laughter ] >> yes. >> do you have anything for rachel. i think my batteries died. take it away. go to steve. [ laughter ] away. go to steve.

[ laughter ] . >> we do need to go to steve. steve.. [ laughter ] >> did you just throw to me? >> oh. >> somebody i apologize. here we go. some stuff, returns in pennsylvania as i gather my train of thought. i wanted to update you on. three key counties here, again, in northeast pennsylvania. we started the night a few times, there are only two counties in pennsylvania that are true swing counties, that is to say they backed trump in 2016 when he won the state and flipped over and backed joe biden when he won the state in 2020. one of them is erie county, hair sis ahead here. primarily on vote by mail, the question is as the rest of the vote comes in that we know is republican friendly will trump catch harris there. put a pin in that one the other one we pretty much have all of the vote in right now.

it is flipping. northampton county. eastern, pennsylvania, the other county that flipped to joe biden in 2020. it fits the pattern. substantial hispanic population in this county. donald trump has made meaningful gains here. joe biden won it by a fraction of a point. now more than five points in trump's favor. we also just got a lot of the vote, almost all of it now in lehigh county, joe biden won by 8 points in 2020, what is in lehigh? the city of allen town. majority hispanic county. both candidates paid a lot of attention, trump hoped to make gains in cities like allen town and pennsylvania. we don't have all of the returns in yet what we have is trump making significant further gains in that city. we also have from monroe county just about all of the vote in.

the city substantial hispanic population, joe biden won by 6.5 points and harris ahead with just about all of the vote in. something else we are seeing tonight, this is really, i keep pointing it out because i keep seeing it. it is important to know. a lot of counties like this in pennsylvania and michigan and wisconsin. donald trump either won or came close in 2016. he lost meaningful ground in 2020 when he lost all three of the states. we keep seeing this tonight. he is landing tonight is back where he landed in 2016. these were winning numbers for trump. these were losing numbers for trump. another county where we are seeing winning numbers for trump. just to put lehigh in perspective, too, lehigh county, we showed you, 8 for biden. you can see it there. continue to see it,

philadelphia, monitoring this as well. now, more than 80% of the vote is counted here. again, compare this to 2020. biden one year, we will take it a step further back. i want you to see the longer term trend here. i will take it all of the way back to 2012. an interesting story in 2012, barack obama won this county by 71 points. okay. the county, it is the city of philadelphia. donald trump in 20can't brought it down to 67 points. trump lost ground in the state. but look at this, brought it down to 63 points. 71, 67, 63. and tonight, right now. this is down to 56 points. from 71 in 2012 down to 56. again, what are we seeing here? what we saw in 2020, the hispanic precincts of philadelphia, we saw meaningful improvement for trump. not talking 10, 20, 30 points

enough to bring a 67 point gap down and tonight, 56. the margin for harris in philadelphia right now is just about 300,000 votes. democrats would love to see it land at 500,000. they have a long way to go to get there. one thing that democrats have to hope for in philadelphia right now is, there is a large number of vote by mail ballots that will be released we think in the next 45 minutes or so. it will boost the harris number in philadelphia, should boost the margin there. she needs to get it back at least to where joe biden was four years ago. she needs to get the margin up. taking a quick look through the counties here. we are getting some meaningful votes here. these counties, delaware, chester, montgomery county are big core democratic vote- producing counties. delaware is the most democratic of these three.

you can see it was 63, 36 here in 2020. the name of the game in all of the counties, democrats want to land north of the joe biden number from 2020. they are on the joe biden number in delaware county right now. take a look out in chester county. again, this is where, i said it at the start of the night, they want to land over 60% in chester county. the wild card is waiting on a lot of same day vote. will it effect, is that going to effect that number for harris right now? move up to montgomery county. cities here, on the main line here, old school, 26 points for joe biden. it is 30 right now. again, 30 is where democrats want it to land. the danger for them, though, significant same day vote there. democrats need philadelphia to come through on the mail. they are going to need that, checking quickly in allegheny

county. getting close here. again, the harris number here right now it is under, small, but slightly under the biden number. the trump number, 4/10th of a point better than four years ago. it is basically a push with 2020. the trump folks offer them at the night they would have taken it. we will see what the remaining vote does. >> steve, thank you. we have a few calls we have to make in senate races. nbc news can project that there is a winner in the senate race in ohio. this is brown losing his seat to republican challenger moreno in ohio. nbc news can project an interesting senate result in california, now, this is adam schiff the candidate in california projected to have won the seat. i need to tell you he wins this both in terms of the regular senate contest but he wins the special.

it means that the seat that was vacated by the death of dianne feinstein where butler has been in that seat since dianne feinstein's death, he will take over the full term of the seat he will take this seat immediately in the senate from california. one additional call in new mexico, the senate race in new mexico martin heinrich will be returning. this is the balance of power in the u.s. senate. this is a big one. plus two net gain for the republicans. they are now at 49 seats. democrats are at 39 seats. there are 12 seats uncalled. we got to go in a moment. we are going to go to michelle who is at harris party. i want to get your reaction. >> that is a big loss for the democrats, it takes them down

in terms of the incumbence to 49 in the senate if you were to assume everyone returns. john tester was in more trouble than brown. most senators believe that brown had a better chance to win. if john goes by the way of brown that would guarantee they lose control of the senate. the remaining hope is that nebraska sends an independent senator to the senate who would then vote for the democrats in organizing the senate. that would get them to 50. but this does now look like the senate is probably going to number republican control. >> i will say it say loss for the senate to lose brown. >> incredible loss. >> yes, one of those miracle workers politically in the senate that can go back to a state where no other democrat could win statewide and he figured out how to do it and

reportedly. >> long after his state turned red. >> they poured massive amounts of money in ohio against him. >> hundreds of millions. >> yes. >> exactly. we are joined by senior contributor editor at harris election headquarters in howard university. what are you seeing? >> the crowd here is still large, still loud, but a little bit more subdued. the word i keep hearing, it must be a new phrase that entered is the idea of people here are nauseously optimistic. not cautiously optimistic. one of the people i heard it from was from lafonz abut ler. she was speaking about the up coming results. she mentioned north carolina called by some not by us yet, thinks it does not look good there. one of the things she said

echoed by people i spoke to is the real focus now is so the blue wall in the midwest. wisconsin, pennsylvania, and that second district in omaha in nebraska that blue at the top of the state. pennsylvania the thought was trump may of had a ceiling. a certain number of votes in 20can't and 20-- 2016 and 2020. they were hoping he would out perform in some key areas but it is clear that trump picked up key support among hispanic voters despite, despite the things that he said at that rally at madison square garden. despite the reaction that we saw among latino voters in places like allen town and hazelton. so, you know, people here are watching and they are wondering what is going to happen in pennsylvania. they are ready for a long, long night. and, one of the reasons that i heard also they wanted to

inject so much joy into the beginning of this is because they knew, that is why they brought the dj in and the line dancing they knew it was going to be a long night and that it would be a nail biter. it appears that is exactly what we are looking at right now. >> campaign is, harris campaign is posted up and watching the results. we will be back to you as the night progresses. >> samone i understand you have sources on the campaign about pennsylvania? >> reporter: yes, people familiar with the numbers and in the know and people in philadelphia, democrats believe they have tens of thousands of votes that are outstanding from philadelphia county. these are absentee ballots. they believe within the hour at least three individuals have

told me within the 11 p.m. hour the votes will come in again from votes from philadelphia county and those numbers will bode well for harris and governor walz. they are saying it will be close. very, very close, but they believe the tens of thousands of ballots will make a difference. my pennsylvania people are telling me that the next batch is expected at 11:55. >> symone are they enthusiastic of what the votes are going to say? or their chances overall? >> reporter: yes, they are enthusiastic about what the votes are going to say. they are also nauseously optimistic. people are nauseously optimistic. they are clear eyed. people within the campaign and strategists surrounding the campaign said to me within the last hour, we have been clear it was going to be close. now, folks may not have

believed that given the energy and momentum but the campaign itself and the folks specifically with very close to the campaign always been clear it is going to be a close race. they believe pennsylvania is still in play and i do also think it is my understanding they have a sense that the reality is that georgia is not an option for a win this go around. and north carolina is not looking like it as well. folks need to wait and see, wade county, rest of mecklenburg. wisconsin, folks in wisconsin think it will be a classic wisconsin photo finish, they feel good about where they are. they noted about dane county. they have seen numbers she, the vice president not performing as well in dane county. they are seeing reporting about that as biden. they note that the ward that have not reported in dane county are very blue areas around madison. so, the folks in wisconsin are feeling good and they tell me

that three campuses, students, are still voting right now as we speak. >> all right, thank you. we are going to go to michael steele, what are you hear being, michael? >> reporter: it is interesting a number of the folks that i have been talking to in michigan, republicans, they are looking a little bit, how should we say skeptical of holding michigan for trump right now. looking at some of the number that are coming in. i know as we still have big centers like detroit that are going to land. the reality on the ground there they have a lot of hope they would flip the house to the republicans but, may give some ground to trump looking through the numbers. up in the air for the trump hold on michigan. the narrative around the blue wall still holds a bit.

pennsylvania, michigan are really kind of those two book ends. with wisconsin sitting right there for kamala harris right at the moment. >> all right, michael steele thank you very much. we do have a little bit of intel ourselves from the campaign. nbc news obtained an email to campaign staff that was sent out by the campaign manager for harris. i will tell you what we got. >> we continue to see data trickle in from the sun belt states we known all along our clearest path to 270 lies through the blue wall states. we feel good about what we are seeing. again, this is in an email from the harris campaign manager, to campaign staff, it has been obtained by nbc news. i will continue to quote it. harris campaign has quote overperformed turnout expectations in philadelphia and they are waiting for a significant amount of votes to come in from michigan including from the city of detroit. she says they are waiting for a

significant amount of vote from wisconsin's dane county and milwaukee county saying they do not expect wisconsin's results until between 3:00 and 5:00 a.m. we have been saying for weeks, she says, quote that this race might not be called tonight. those of you who were around in 2020 know it takes time. what we know is this race will not come into focus until the early morning hours. jan jen psaki what do you have to say. >> in the boiler room, that is what they are in. we have decision desk what is different in a campaign you are looking at vote goals in these counties and what you are trying to achieve, right?

so n these counties, in philly they are looking at the vote numbers by a great deal, higher than biden did. they are looking at the percentages were, biden did 2% better, so they are looking at that but they are looking at the rural counties and how they can do. as the information comes in they look better in certain states in addition looking at the path. to me, there has not been a call from here in some of the state that she does not mention in this, in this email. but, if is quite telling that she really focuses on the blue wall states here which, again, nicolle said earlier, it is a line to the path and they see it that way. the thing that is hard in campaigns is as the path narrows, part of the objective of this email is to say to the people on the team, hang in there, guys. like, it is not over. we are still getting votes in, we still need to keep talking

to people, keep people in lines, tell your grandma it is going to be okay. that is what they are doing. [broken audio ]. we can project harris is the winner in washington state. in the senate in washington state we have democratic sent tercantwell will return to the -- senator cantwell will return to the senate. >> steve? over to you. >> first thing, i want to point it out. national popular vote is right now. cust mayorly wecustomly we see

trump leading, then california comes in late and takes time for the vote to be counted. that is a millions of vote margin for democrats. it will change, we are just starting to get california in. outside of the core battleground. a couple things that i want to flag. a couple states, awful late in the night and don't have calls on and i think folks expected we would. virginia, 80% of the vote is in. harris is ahead here by about 2- 1/2 points. point state for joe biden over donald trump. what has changed tonight? where has trump made progress in virginia? take a look here. loudoun county. we talked about it. suburbs, parts of washington, d.c., just lightning-fast growth here, biden won it by 25

points, it has been getting leaps and bounds more democratic. look what happened. what was a 25 point win for joe biden comes down to a 16 point win. and again, trump needs to be improving to win virginia on average by 10 points in the counties. he comes close to it there in loudoun. prince william county. a densely populated county and hispanic population, biden won it by 27, down to 18 points just about all in there for prince william county. virginia beach, a lot of vote to come in for virginia beach, this is where joe biden won by 5, youngkin flipped and won. trump right now leading it by 6 points. that is san 11 point shift here. a lot of areas here that trump would need to do better in if he was going to overtake harris here. the fact it is this late at night and trump made gains that held so much so far it is significant and it is part of

why the popular vote is maybe a bigger leap at this hour than trump would have. bigger reason is this. new york, called. harris is going to win new york. her margin is 12 points, check this out. in 2020 it was 23 points for joe biden. nearly 90% of the votes in. national popular vote perspective. biden won it by 2. margin is not yet a million. we are getting close to all of the votes coming in. let me show you what has happened here. overwhelming democratic city. manhattan, the most liberal county in new york. a portion of new york. 86, 74.5 biden win down to 63. trump made double digit gains. joe biden win in 2020 down to 24.

a 20 point net gain so far for trump in queens. staton island is small it is you can see there, though, they have the vote in there. again, i flag that because we are seeing it in new york. trump's gains with hispanic voters, working class hispanic voters you are seeing it, it is reflected in the statewide vote coming down significantly. across the hudson river.

harris is in pretty good to win the state. hudson county, there is union city of new jersey is, 80% hispanic. a lot of small densely populated cities in hudson county with large hispanic populations. joe biden won here by 46 points. tonight, it is 28 points. this is basically it in hudson county. 46-28. one of the giant core democratic counties, new jersey relies on. that is a massive, massive shift. that speaks to trump's gains. so, again, that is some of the state that have bearing on the national popular vote. we saw the polls tighter than before. we wonders in trump was going to narrow the margin. that is what we are seeing. i wanted to follow up on wisconsin, too, getting close to 70% of the vote in. yes, we were just talking about dane and the question for the democrats here hitting the plarg inthat they got out of 2020. it is true. here we go. now, we are up to 95%.

since i checked in we got more. we are getting close to all of the vote in dane county. 163,000. that is the harris margin in dane county. 163,000 in 2020 that was about 182,000. we will see if there is more votes to come. when it hits 95% they usually aren't. when it hits like anything like that holds, democrats want to be at that number, this is where they improve their performance every time for four years. democrats did improve, harris did or looks like she will, not much to come in waukesha. big county. one of the wow counties outside of milwaukee. here again, trump got basically 60%, 60-39, trump falling a point here so far. harris rising a point over biden. that is progress in a big county. take a look here and this one, now, we have 3/4s of the vote

in ozaukee. trump is leveled with his 2020 number. a couple points better. see what happens with the remaining vote. talking about the start of the night, the wow counties and bow counties. brown counties, midsize cities along the fox river, the lake, all counties that donald trump won in 2020 but with reduced margins. he is returning to 2016 levels or back at 2020 levels. allegheny county here. the city of appleton is. in 2016, when trump won wisconsin he won it by 13 points. in 2020 when he lost wisconsin, the 10 point margin. tonight, 67%. it is back at that 13 point spread right now. again, both still to come in allegheny county. trump is returning to 2016 levels, wisconsin is a state when trump won it was by 20,000

votes, biden won it, it was 20,000 votes. these differences can make all of the difference. see what happens with the remaining vote there. that is what we are seeing in the northern tear, the battleground all through the night. now near 70%. very close here. 67,000 votes. more to come out of those wow counties and if there is anything left in dane. if the number does not move that is where democrats wanted to be. >> we have a call to make in the senate race. nbc news can project in the senate race in the great state of minnesota, we have that projection? there we go. senate race in the great state of minnesota, senator amy klobuchar will head back to the united states senate. she was re-elected in minnesota. we are going to take a quick break. important senate races in pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, nevada, nebraska, lots of interesting senate races to come. we will check in on those on

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buy one line of unlimited, get one free for a year with xfinity mobile. and see wicked, only in theaters november 22nd. . nbc news can project at this hour in the presidential race in the state of virginia that there is a winner in virginia. democratic vice president harris has won the presidential contest in the state of virginia. nbc news can also project a winner the presidential contest in north carolina, nbc news projected that the winner in the presidential race in the state of north carolina is donald trump. this is our first projection of a result in any of the seven big swing states. the first swing state to be projected by nbc news tonight is north carolina going to donald trump.

i understand that we have a change in the characterization of the presidential race in minnesota. in minnesota previously was characterized as too early to call and minnesota now characterized by nbc news as too close to call. looking at the overall map, the road to 270, trump stands at 230, and kamala harris stands at 185. again, of the seven swing states that we and everybody else have been watching we have an nbc news call in the first one, joy, north carolina called for donald trump. >> yep, and so it was a state democrats were reaching for. a lot of work to try to turn out the college campuses that were really big and packed trying to turn out the suburbs. a lot of hope just because of the insanity of the person who is running for governor in the state and a thought that defeating him would carry harris in.

but, in the end, if they did not make their numbers and essentially exceed the numbers that joe biden had in the suburbs. we have to be blunt about why. black voters came through for harris, white women did not. that is what appears happened. if you can not get enough white women and we talked about this on this set numerous times. you have a state where you have a six week or 12 week abortion, theirs might be 12. women lost their reproductive rights, a heavy push to get women to focus on not putting in place, you know, electing, putting back into the white house the person who was responsible for taking those rights away and restoring them. that message obviously was not enough to get enough white women to vote for vice president harris. this is the second opportunity that white women in this country have to change the way

that they interact with the patriarchy. if people are not respective to it and if people vote more, you know, party line or more on race and on gender and protecting their gender not much you can do is tell people what the risks are and leave them to do the right thing. >> there are no surprises here. when it comes to north carolina they just went through the hurricane. we know that the state made tons of accommodations and you were able to get in the polls but they were victims to a huge amount of misinformation over the last four weeks. you can not underestimate the impact that had, to joy's point, no surprises in this election, people knew exactly who they were voting for and what they were getting. they get what they get. >> i want to talk about mark robinson for a second. i think it is interesting. he is running an experiment. it is like what is the floor? what is the floor for someone

who is a major party nominee in a swing state in basically a closely -- remind people who he is? current lieutenant governor running for governor. he called himself a nazi and he said every single offensive thing a person can do and a long history of saying incredibly repellent offensive statements about just about every group imaginable. he is the opposite of what you would call like diplomatic or political. he is going to get, you know. >> he lost, he lost, right. he lost a lot. 40%. to me i look at that 40%. where does everyone start in the structurally polarized america that we live in? and the answer is mark robinson in north carolina. that guy ran as bad of a race. abandoned by the republican ticket and abandoned by former

republican. >> abandoned by his entire staff. >> yes. and basically what has been a 50/50 state. a good experiment. that is the floor. it is 40. the reason it matters is because there are two things happening in every election. structural stuff that is happening and then there is what happens in the campaign and what the candidates are and what is happening in the news the structural stuff in this country it is like the 40%. that structural stuff is moving in all sorts of interesting directions. and talking about the re- alignment of working class voters parties of the left to parties in the right. it happens in every democracy across the world over the last 16 years, 20, you can go back further. because of how structurally polarized we are. everything is happening at the margin. the margins are three points, four points, five points. in a room, three people changing the color of their shirt, four people changing the

color of their shirt that is where everything happens in american politics right now. >> and i think it goes back to what david said there, they built a campaign for kamala harris to try to defeat a donald trump that had a 48% ceiling. it looks like from what some of steve kornacki is telling us he is there. >> we talked about that, said, this idea that his creels was 46.1 or 46.7 had always been that. there will be more time to follow this. we are following the story and the facts and the story is not over. if trump did increase that margin over what was a 8 year ceiling, right, there will be much to stay and study if it was because a new found appreciation for him and his ideas or if this was an economy election. we have had many of them. there are many a politician that will say this happened that means you like me more, i have a bigger mandate and

sometimes it is not that. it is that high prices and inflation after covid was body blow >> yes. >> working class voters are mad at everyone. mad at the system, democrats thought, look at all we have done for unions, labor in this country. we forget, not all working class voters are members of the union. right? there is a huge difference. >> correct. we can all say trump does absolutely nothing for them, that is true from a policy perspective. they look around and they feel connected with his personality. they like the way he speaks and he speaks to them and says you are forgotten. you know what joe biden did? he forgave student debt for college-educated people with all sorts of job opportunities and you continue to be forgotten. they have not found and policy solutions for them.

i can go through everything joe biden has done beyond what he has done, inflation reduction act, infrastructure plans, we can talk about all of the training programs in many rural communities, georgia, pennsylvania but many of them are not under way yet. it takes time, right? >> just briefly i am not, i am not speaking to that i am just saying when the economy is bad enough and that front and center people tend to vote against what they see as the incumbent party in this case you had an incumbent vice president and all i am saying, we don't know yet, i am just saying is it that everyone gave donald trump a bigger hug because he closed so well, [ laughter ] >> no new calls, but, in the total vote trend is it that or something we have seen from time going back to the beginning. elections when they are mad at the economy. >> or don't vote at all. 50% in a good year.

there are a lot of people, bishop barber thing talking about all of the time on the shows, poor and lower people don't vote for the most part. they normally sit it out. so, there is a checking out of the system and saying, i am not receiving economic benefits, college loan forgiveness does not impact me and so people are actually in some cases in this country backing out of a voting all together. so, i think there is a tendency to see it is poor people voting against their best interest when many cases poor people are not voting at all. they are just not part of the system. what you have is higher net worth and higher education voters voting versus rural work are class voters. working class does not mean poor. working class meaning you are a noncollege voter but you have a second home somewhere in, you know, the hamptons and you work in the plumbing business you are not necessarily poor. i think we have to be careful

in characterizing it as low wage people and figuring out how to get them in the system at all. >> we have a call to make. nbc news can make a projection of winner in the governor's race in the great state of washington. we have that? that is how you make it happen. nbc news projects the governor's race in washington, is bob ferguson next governor in washington. republican opponent dave reichert. but bob ferguson will be the winner. we will talk about the tight senate races but i want to go first to philadelphia i want t first to philadelphia jacob what are you seeing? >> reporter: rachel, last i spoke with you we were here

with one of the three election commissioner for the tabulations. we expect another release of ballots around midnight eastern time. i have spectacular numbers that may or may not be useful for steve and you all there. he tells me around 50,000 votes will be a part of that next release around midnight eastern time. that would leave a total universe, according to him, 37,000 votes left. that would include ballots that will not be counted like unsigned, undated, no secrecy envelops and whatever ballots do not meet the standard of being counted. 50,000 to be released in the next nine minutes. then 37,000 tomorrow. i want to quickly show you, it looks like maybe -- there is ballots or something coming in right now. we see a police car escort with two different vans.

i want to show you rachel, look through the window here. there is the one angle you can see election workers here in philadelphia. that is not their camera processing the ballots. they are all in there now going through the process. election workers doing their great civic duty. about nine minutes time we expect the information about the additional 50,000 ballots, under score, tomorrow morning another release here in philadelphia. >> okay. let's take a look. here come the trucks. go ahead, rachel. >> i was going to say just to let you know in case you could not see. when you were poking your nose into that window. looking through that window there was a security officer and or cop inside who was displeased. just so you know in case there is unfriendly. >> i will give you one quick peek, i think they left. [ laughter ] >> thank you very much. when you get the tap on your

shoulder don't tell them you know us. [ laughter ] >> it is coming. >> we will always have your back. i am kidding. >> honestly. you just turn on the charm. oh, did i do something wrong? little ole me? how can i be held accountable for any of these things? >> let's go back to the senate board. looking at pennsylvania senate race. we are going to look at some of the senate races that are not yet called. nbc news projecting in the senate race in pennsylvania. that this is too close to call race between senator bob casey and republican challenger dave mccormick. over 80% of the vote in for pennsylvania. here in michigan. too close to call. this is rogers, the republican with 40% of the vote in.

here is wisconsin, wisconsin race, democratic incumbent, tammy baldwin vasing republican challenger just over 70% of the vote in. this is where things stand in wisconsin. here is arizona, just over half of the vote in for arizona. this is too early to call. you see reuben gallego there with 52% and lake 45%, too early to call in arizona. in nebraska, an interesting one. too early to call. incumbent republican fischer. and dan says he will not caucus with either party. we don't know what that means. 50, 50, with 60% of the vote in. looking at montana. interesting, we only have 14%

of the vote in for montana. this is senator jon tester and republican challenger tim sheehy. 14% of the vote in for the montana senate race. you know, democrats, obviously, their pie in the sky view of the senate races what is that like florida was within reach against rick scott and maybe texas was in reach with ted cruz versus allred, now, i think, we are down to figuring out what the republican margin is likely to be honestly. >> one of the things we are seeing in the key race that we have not called, michigan and wisconsin for incidence, we saw, going all of the way back to spring, a gap between the polling for the senate, statewide incumbent democrat when it was bidden and persisted when it was harris. the senate top of the ticket candidate running ahead of the national ticket. there was a question if it was an artifact in the measurement

and they would converge or something picking up. what we are seeing tonight, convergence. with the exception of arizona. reuben gallego will outperform the top of the ticket because i think kari lake is especially poor candidate after her loss two years ago. with those other kind of, i would call them generic, they are classic mitch mcconnell recruits in pennsylvania and wisconsin. they are wealthy guys who self- funded like mitch mcconnell's favorite. >> yes. scott, yes. honestly. you guys do that. less checks we have to cut to the leadership fund, they are very classic mcconnell recruit, generic "r" guys. flue yes. they are converging. >> this is a kentucky guy,

hedge fun manager, he had some heritage from pennsylvania, married to powell who of course, senior advisory to donald trump. he is in a position to self- fund. noteworthy. bob casey is expected to win that race and be in line with kamala harris. if, in fact, mccormick does win, does prevail in pennsylvania, what could it mean for harris in her potential run in pennsylvania? >> and trump doing well in certain places helps the republicans, looking at ohio you say what would a populous senator lock like? democrats have one with a strong record even against tail winds that go along ways. however you want to say it, brown, was doing 5 points better than the harris finish. or moreno was doing worse than trump. either way you cut it there is incumbency and populous. he is running where the republican is up 10 and so he

has to deal with that. >> yes. and to speak about brown and the board we are showing right now. we called it for moreno. here is an example of the river. the motion of the river that is happening across all of the democracies that everyone is swimming in. no one swam against that river more than brown: all of the stuff that you hear from trump and j.d. vance about trade and about building america, there has been brown's brand, his core belief, his prince pals, things he fought for and -- principals and fought for and he has been successful to swim against the

tide. tonight, mercedes-benz dealer beat him. really. >> a man who made a tremendous amount of money in cryptocurrency. his first target will be the fcc chair. >> and there is a 40 billion spend against brown because of his role in regulating finance another thing that . >> can we note i wonder if ohio democrats will rethink putting that abortion ballot measure off of the november election, right? this was a candidate that just openly insulted women in the state of ohio. >> oh, i think we have something happening. >> we do. closing in at the top of the hour. just under 10 seconds to poll closings tonight, a single poll closing tonight. nbc news as the polls close in hawaii, nbc news can predict

projected winner kamala harris in the presidential race in the state of hawaii. right? yes, there it is. in terms of the road to 70. the four electoral vote looking like this. trump at 230, and harris at 189. in georgia, too close to call, difference of under 120,000 votes between them with 93% of the vote in. in georgia. in pennsylvania, too close to call, 84% of the vote is in. just over 200,000 votes between the two candidates in pennsylvania. in michigan, it is too close to call, 44% of the vote in. difference of 100,000 votes between them. in wisconsin, it is too close to call. we got 3/4s of the vote in, just under 90,000 votes between

the two candidates. and in arizona not too close to call it is too early to call. you see half of the vote in. also in nevada, it is too early to call. we have 2% of the vote in, in nevada. all right. let's go to see where the senate stands actually. forgive me. in the senate race, in hawaii, polls just closed at midnight eastern time, nbc news projects the senate race in hawaii at this point as too early to call. this is democratic incumbent hirono. this is where the senate stands at this hour. there are still 10 uncalled senate seat which is is a lot. republicans have a net gain of 2 already.

steve, what are we seeing at this hour? >> let's take a look at pennsylvania where, you had jacob setting up. out of philadelphia that is, about 50,000 vote by mail. the results will be released in philadelphia. that is the most democratic friendly. overwhelmingly democratic vote. margin for harris right now. 335,000. they are hoping to get it in the neighborhood of 500,000 votes. we have a long way to go with two thirds of the vote in. and right now. let's see. the mail update will be huge. how much do the numbers change? democrats want to be above and need to be above this biden level and getting that close to 500,000 because of what else we are seeing right now and what is coming even in the last few

minutes in pennsylvania. let me show you what that is. a couple things, we said, put a pin in majority. 70% hispanic city. all of the vote almost in. trump will win luzerne county. trump's gains with hispanic voters. you are absolutely seeing it her in luzerne county. he will win it by 20 votes. his campaign said he would do that, they did it. made the gains right next door earlier tonight. also getting clarity in pennsylvania, south central pennsylvania, lancaster county, one of the counties where you can see in 2020, trump got 57, 41, this is a place where trump slipped in 2020. democrats wanted him to slip further. that is not happening. there is a big region population wise.

does not get the same attention as philadelphia. now, lebanon county, too. they wanted -- lebanon, they wanted more of a drop off, they do not get it. now, also in this region. also a place democrats not getting it tonight. look inside of the collar counties here in philadelphia. these are huge population dense counties. i will flag a couple things, almost all of the vote in delaware county right now. of these, it is the most democratic, the most diverse, most blue collar of these three. of delaware, chester, montgomery. in 2020 joe biden won here by 27 points. getting close to all of the vote in here right now. it sits at about 24.5. not harris, not at the biden level. keep in mind, again, very clear in pennsylvania right now. generally in these counties the vote by mail is all vote is reported out early and what remains is the same date vote

that is republican leaning. in all of the counties you see trump improving with each update. harris is now almost two points under where joe biden got in the core democratic county four years ago. next door in chester county. more significant drop off for harris from biden. but, chester county, unlike just about every other county in pennsylvania they are waiting until the end of the night, they say, to release their vote by mail. we will see if harris can get that back. there is same day vote coming in helping trump here. next door in montgomery county. enormous suburban county. again, we got the vote by mail. we are waiting on same day, harris is running a point behind where joe biden finished in this county in 2020. go up to bucks, bucks it is different. more blue collar. certainly than chester and montgomery. a swing county. again, now, half of the vote is

in here. biden won it by 4.5 points in 2020. trump taken the lead in bucks county. tiny but he has it. more blue collar counties throughout the northern tear of the battleground you are seeing it. such a close race in 2016. democrats made a significant jump here in 2020. trump is sort of rolling back the clock to 2016. so far you are seeing that in bucks county as well. we said that in allegheny county. we are coming to close to all of the vote in. 94%. super close. again, we will show you, 2020, biden got 60%. hharris is close to that. but not quite. giving everything that we are seeing with the counties with hispanic populations it is essential that harris overperform where biden did. now, there may be some vote by

mail ballots left in allegheny county. nothing on the order of what you got there in philadelphia. a place where they won big gains the way it is playing out tonight, need it. given everything else. reset it, 85% of the vote now in pennsylvania. about 170,000 vote difference. seeing, it came in, it did, there you go. the vote by mail update it looks like it came in, you can see, look at that harris margin how much it jumped. 350,000. there is as jacob said another batch of mail reported out tomorrow morning. another jump like this expected to come. that did knock trump's number down to 20.8. he was at 22 before. again, he is still running 3 points north of where he was in philadelphia back in 2020. let's see that final. it will be awhile until that

final vote by mail updates. there one took trump down a notch but not back to the level democrats want him at there. we can take a trip down to georgia. we got more counties that filled in for georgia. now, 93% of the vote. you see that margin for trump. it has come down a little bit. just under 120,000 votes. the lead, statewide, not a lot of votes left. we got clarity in here. a giant one, gwinnett county. more than a million people. not all but almost all of the votes in right now. it was 18 points for joe bid felony 2020. right now, 16.5 for harris. this is the project or. clinton won it by 6. it exploded in 2020. they wanted to take the next step forward in 2024 to off set what it has been. one of the stories tonight, we don't show it because the counties are all individually small. i can take you through dozens

of counties that you see in red here a trump gain of two points, of three points, of two points and you add them together and it is a big reason why trump has lead statewide. more in now in de kalb county. some of it is inside the perimeter, large black population, large college educated white voters. harris not hitting the number that biden hit here. democrats need more out of there. they need more out of it. this is a core democratic county that you can get. harris basically level. a tick under where joe biden was in 2020. not much to come. democrats need every vote they can get out of there. again, reset it statewide. 118,000 votes that is the trump margin right now.

see if anything happened in pennsylvania. you see the lay of the land there >> all right, we will check back in with you. >> we have been updating you over the course of the night about a few house races we have been watching. this is notable house race just because it is a flip. few seats that flipped from one party to the other tonight. that has happened in new york 22. there was republicans who were elected in blue districts in new york in 2022. one of them was republican williams, well, in new york 22, he just lost his seat tonight. democrat john mannion will be taking that seat in congress from that new york congressional district. interesting there. the only other flip that i know about at this point, it is a gain in alabama second district. a gain for the democrats, this

is because of redistricting. so this is a race that is in a district that was created because of a big redistricting fight that went all of the way up through the court system. and figures will join the alabama congressional district. one other race to update you on. ballot measure in missouri. this is interesting. missouri called it early on for trump today and missouri republican incumbent u.s. senator will also be returning to the senate. holly. on the same ballot, they voted to increase the minimum wage and have paid sick time and it looks like there is winning by significant margin. look at this. more than 80% of the vote in. 59-41 in favor of waying the minimum wage. something we are seeing in a lot of different races in states over the course of tonight about people picking politicians who are absolutely

opposed to the policy position that they are then voting for in a ballot measure >> it tells us something important about policy that maybe it was never about policy maybe it is cultural alienation. i don't know if you can call the democratic party. kamala harris ran alongside liz cheney and a whole bunch of people large, large numbers of latino men, mostly men, but women also felt no magnetic pull towards that coalition. and i think there is a lot to learn. i just read some comments similar to comments you made. there is a story about rea loinment. of course, the ultimate out come is re-- re-alignment. they did not vote along traditional party lines, your point earlier about plaque voters. there are policies that you are talking about that did not make a difference in terms of how

people voted. then there are policies that mattered very much. but just at the top of the ticket. a lot of information that we will digest. >> we can see that impact right now. i don't want to get too wonky on you. but the 30 year bond market is getting decimated. to your point earlier, inflation, people don't like the cost of things we will vote for the business guy. the reason the bond market is getting crushed right now because people are anticipating corporate tax cuts that will balloon our deficit. if trump imposes tariffs it will reignite inflation, so, this whole thing is we are voting for someone based on a personality of a celebrity business guy because we don't like the economy. what he will do to the economy, the policies he will put forth the corporate tax cuts, not sunset he will make them bigger. and then the tariffs are

terrible for the environment. >> yes. -- economy >> one is democrat i bob casey in pennsylvania that we are all watching, closed, closed his campaign not by sexual act on stage that is not how most candidates ever close but he did close with an ad tauts his support for trump tariffs in pennsylvania as a democrat that is point one. point two, we talked about a lot of races, don't do a ton with exit polls, the numbers don't work but on big questions, here is one, i wanted to touch on. this is out of all of those around the nation. you ask people in the last year mind you, not two years ago, in the last year inflation has caused your family, not everyone else, your family what? and if you ask for a moderate or severe hardship it is 75% of the voting public. a bunch of the people voted for

democrats and harris. that is a reminder with no insult to the people trading in the bond market every day. the only thing that i know about bonds is the word of bond. you know more about how bonds work, but the people doing those trades, the master's of the universe, musk and his bro buddies in d.c. most of those people don't feel and could not pass a lie detector test that inflation effected their family. it is a heck of a lot of americans >> by the way the question about raising minimum wage never loses. >> always wins >> red state or a blue state. it is a winner every time. i am surprised democrats don't use it more. but the same people that are working class voters that want my wages increased are also voting for the candidate in some

cases who is bankrolled into musk who said there would be pain and hardship. he will not feel it. he is a billionaire but they will feel it. you are saying your minimum wage increase will not be enough to deal with the tariff that will make everything that you buy in walmart much more expensive. there is a disconnect between people's perception that the actor from the apprentice can make me better. i want to be under the care, right, of a very rich person who i think will take care of me economically because he was on television. but literally the policies that you are going to get, this is what, listen you get the government you ask for. if you are saying you want 20% tariffs and mass deportation that will make everything unaffordable this is what will happen >> there is a group of people we don't often talk about that are not how you like to say down with, down with the care economy. it is small business owners. [ laughter ] >> how do you like to say it

>> they are not down with the care economy is because when you increase minimum wage, when you offer maternity leave to low wageworkers it sounds great and we support it but a lot of small business owners that don't want to say it in public saying i don't want to do that, i can not afford it. my margins are small. there is this quiet universe of people out there that run small businesses that want absolutely no regulation. while they like the idea of paying someone more money they said let the government cover that. in my small business or restaurant i can not afford to do that. >> i want to say one thing as we are talking about the pennsylvania race and the missouri race. one of the things that happens is because of the nature of structuralization and close race after close race after close race is that when we are interpreting results we are looking at what is right now a 3-4 point swing in the national

political environment from 2020. again, these are, again, extremely important meaningful switches for who wields power and what the government does and who it serves. these are relatively small margins, right? when you look back at what happened in 64 or what happened in 72 or what happened in 1980 we are talking about landslide, huge elections, right? one of the candidates wins one state. yes. we are just in a completely different world than that. what will happen in the days to come independent of the outcome of the win thrary is called is looking at the margins. they matter a huge amount to political professionals to who wields power or campaigns, we are talking 3 points here, 4 points there, there is a tendency to be like everyone now is this, and everyone used to be that and everyone is

this. no, it is there are two people in the room of 100 people who put a different color shirt on. that is what happened. that determined the election. it is always really important because there is a tendency to draw out enormous conclusions about the nature of the american soul to keep that. >> yes, but, yes, but, yes -- a lot of people think the shirts cost way more than they used to. [ laughter ] >> i am sure. >> they are right. they are correct. >> and some of them don't. some of them leveled out and the price of shirts is not as bad as 18 months ago. if you look at issues which we talked a lot about reproductive rights and freedom and how donald trump got two supreme court seats and basically stole a third. and those justices said under oath roe is a super precedent. they were lying then or later acted in a way that made that a lie what did the voters say?

national exit, immigration issue s that your top issue? 11%. abortion is that your top issue, 14%. economy 31%. that is not great news for trump or maga or any of his claim that stephanie fact checked greatly. it is bad news for incumbents >> and exists alongside the reality that the united states economy is the envy of the world. that the only reason there is a positive economic outlook globally is because the united states economy is doing so well it is dragging everybody else upward. it is the best jobs market in the history of the united states. and inflation is back to where it was. not only just before covid but before donald trump left office. this is, the inflation numbers, the economic growth numbers, the fiscal numbers.

u.s. standing in the world numbers are all off of the charts positive, even the stock market, right? all positive. and yet, the pain, the old pain having gone through the rise in price that is over and which we weathered better than every other advanced economic economy in the world to me it can not be perscriptive because of what happened today or in this voting period. if we were a country where all of the indicators were going down you would expect it to be a changed economy. all of our indicators are three feet high and rising >> and there was nothing else for the harris campaign to offer or do. they delivered a strong economy. they put a plan forth going forward and what trump has offered only going to worsen the economy. >> and also, polling above the

economy was democracy. actually the number one thing that, so, there was a tremendous concern about what might happen to us if we are no longer a democracy. that was a driving, more of a driving reason than the economy and yet it was not necessarily enough to make it not a tie, right? >> let's turn to alex wagner standing by with our political insiders >> we are here in the insider's room. we were talking a little bit about philadelphia county, pennsylvania, what you are hearing on the ground. do you have anything that you want to share? >> i sat next to her over the last few months and everything that claire has said even when i am like, mm, claire, that is no, it hit in this cycle has come through. so, i was fighting her about

two hours ago. what i am hearing there, the big board from steve kornacki, a lot of mail vote. the lead that needs to be insurmounted may not, the gap may not be insurmountable. but it may be mountable but they don't, they are cautiously optimistic. there are still absentee ballots out there. i don't know exactly how many are left out there. i personally don't think there are enough. that means in there are not enough, i will be honest. if there are not enough absentee ballots out there to make up the gap that exists for the kamala harris the vice president will not win pennsylvania. if she does not win pennsylvania, trump hits 270. now, pennsylvania people are

saying allegheny county, pittsburgh, puerto rican vote there is still a chance and some of the suburbs in the collar counties but the numbers, the margins, this is an election about the margins, the margins are not large enough in the state thus far. again, there are still folks out there. >> we are still in it. we have been talking, claire, about accomplish began and wisconsin. and looking at those two states in the context of the senate race. i wonder how you look at the way in which flakin is in a tight race with rogers and tammy baldwin is now i believe slightly maybe even behind her republican challenger. >> yes. and pennsylvania. what started out as a hopeful sense that maybe we can knock off ted cruz and maybe the

independent candidate in nebraska while not caucuses with democrats would deny the republicans a seat. now we are looking at if the republicans end up with 51, 52, 53 or 54 seats. why is that so important? one reason it is so important is because it probably means if this all happens this is very depressing, i am sorry to do this to everyone. it means maybe the worst instincts of trump is to who he would appoint to the cabinet can become real. because there would not be enough people that would say no. no. you are not putting someone who has been in prison in charge of the national security counsel. this is not a good idea. so, that worries me. now, the other thing about the senate races that i think we need to take a moment and talk about is now the house becomes very important. and, these house races that frankly are some of them in california have not had a

chance to do deep dives yet. kornacki has not educated us on all of the house races. puwe flipped some. and jeffries may be the most important person for the values we care about. >> yes. trump get presidency the white house and they have 52, 53, 54 seats in the senate all eyes go to the house of representatives. i wonder, first of all, we are all on an emotional roller coaster. we are all calibrating our psychological profiles, i wonder how you are looking at the state of play and focused on? >> look, i, i -- the thing about it that strikes me where we are right now is many respects we saw it coming. when you are pulling at the threats of pulling the

narrative around the idea of women's reproductive health and there is resistance to that. when you are talking about our role in the world. and there is resistance to that. i think what we are seeing being played out is resistance to those narratives. what we will spend time with is if this plays out the way it seems and donald trump wins this election it is to understand what that resistance is about. what is it about our supporting ukraine that you did not like beyond the talking points. what is it about women's reproductive health that did not move you enough in florida, right? to actually draw the line in the sand. >> can i just say, these numbers, again, this is a quickly-moving storm front, but, it was 57% of florida voters voted for -- you knew what the threshold was >> 60, and 56 or even if% voted

for donald trump that gets to the phenomenal of people voting for trump and for abortion rights >> there you go, there you go. >> i don't think it is as black and white. >> i am not saying black and white. i am saying it is every color under the rainbow. every shade of how you, how we start to park and understand elections like this. it is going to be important for what happens next. if the maga movement continues to expand. there is consideration if trump hits the national popular vote here tonight, there are things for us to think about. you know, for me, i am looking, i am looking at some of the states. i am, i am with my friend symone. born out of experience of understanding how election drive and how they are built >> margins. >> i wish i can ignore the

margins and how elections are built. i think this is, this is for, you know, a lot of folks myself included a recall brags of re-calibration. it has me thinking of the 2016 focus group where i saw a young mother, i tell the story, of awe young mother, white suburban mother of two divorced when asked why she was supporting trump she said he is just like me. that question, that understanding has not been met to understand how in the face of dobbs. in the face of everything else that has happened, white suburban women tonight. >> are still voting for trump. >> are voting in a bigger number than you would think for trump. i wonder how much voters are saying i am voting yes on there and no on this and yes on this

and not more just a feeling about donald trump and his strengths and the fear mongering he has done around immigration and the fuzziness he had on women's rights. you know, i am not entirely sure it is sort of a list of kind of policy pros and cons going in there. the governor, who, after new jersey was very, very close in that what, 2020 race? he is in a focus group. and, his own internal focus groups and what he saw in the focus groups of the key of these voters that went out and did things that democrats are like wait, what is happening here? he said that we have to listen to what the voters are saying. so, i want to know what the voters have to say about this. we will have to ask more

questions about the vote in the focus groups in the weeks and days to come. the election is not over until all of the votes are counted. that is the first thing. the second thing is, many things are happening tonight, you know, in this election in 1968, same election where chissum was elected and same election richard nixon was elected as president. so i fundamentally believe the legacies of both of those individuals were on the ballot in this election. -- they join the ranks of black women in the senate. alabama, a district that was created because people in alabama with the help of the naacp and defense fund and all of the others went all of the way up to the supreme court fought for their voting rights, that district was created in

alabama and louisiana and they are called black opportunity districts. and now there is more representation, these are the seats that will make jeffries the first black speakers of the house. everything everywhere all at once. >> and all over your head sometimes. [ laughter ] >> i send it back to you, rachel. [ laughter ] joins us now from a tabulation center is shaquille brewster. great to see you tonight, what have you been seeing and what are you seeing now? >> reporter: good to see you as well. i will set up where i am, we are in downtown milwaukee. how they do the ballots in bigger cities like milwaukee. when you look at the early vote and mail in, they all go to one location and counted and then those results are posted all at once. we just heard from the clerk they are still working through the ballots. we are not likely going to see

the results from milwaukee until overnight hours. you can see a little bit of it. look how wide open this entire room is. we just got an update saying clerks are working through some of the larger wards right now. processed 80,000 ballots today. you see some of the processing going on as we speak. once they are processed they go into the tabulators and then they are tabulated and sent over to the county. this is important because there are 107,000 ballots in this room alone for the state of wisconsin. when you talk to republicans in this state they are getting more and more optimistic. i tell you, they are chatty right now reaching out to us saying one, they don't think that vice president kamala harris got fluff votes out of dane county. but two, we know milwaukee is the last to post the results and when you look at the margin right now in wisconsin with

donald trump currently ahead out with the about 100,000 votes, if i am telling you there are 107,000 ballots here posted later tonight, republicans are pointing to that saying they are skeptical the vice president can make it up. it is because of what you are seeing here, the fact that we are waiting on ballots to come that republicans are optimistic. >> shaq brewster for us in milwaukee, wisconsin. we will come back to you, shaq, i have to interrupt my own thought, call, second time we are able to make a projection in a battleground state. "nbc news now" projects that in the battleground state of georgia in the presidential race donald trump has prevailed in the presidential race in georgia. so, again, of our swing states, we have two calls thus far, georgia and in north carolina

for nbc news. that puts the map at donald trump with 246 electoral votes and kamala harris at 189. both are aiming at 270. of the seven states that we consider to be battleground states two, north carolina and georgia have been called by nbc news as of this hour. both of them called for trump. >> rachel what we can say now is if harris does not win a state that is not treated as a battleground state if she does not do that, she now absolutely must pull out a win in pennsylvania. if there is no surprises outside of the battlegrounds then georgia, plus north carolina, plus pennsylvania would get donald trump to 270 electoral votes. look at pennsylvania we are closing in on 90% of the vote

here. donald trump is leading by 168,000 votes right now. a couple of thing that we can show you that have come in now in pennsylvania to add more clarity. we said at the start of the night. two counties are pure bell bellwethers. one erie county, we got the results from erie county it flipped back to trump. take a look at this in 2016. pennsylvania, he won erie gave it back to biden when he won the state, trump is reclaiming erie county. there is one of the big, you call it rust belt, a lot of blue collar, population there. where are we waiting for remaining votes in pennsylvania? right now, we talked a lot about philadelphia, jacob told us, a big batch of mail in votes we will not know until sometime tomorrow morning.

that is it. there is also some same day votes coming in. the same day vote is running less democratic than the vote by mail. the big picture in philadelphia is democrats are current low 3 points behind where joe biden ran in 2020. and this reflects a bit of a disappointment. they won pennsylvania in 2020 but their philadelphia number came down t. is coming down further so far. unless the mail in ballots get it trump may win in philadelphia. a few votes in delaware county, big suburban county outside of philadelphia. right now, harris is not hitting the biden number. chester county, we are down to the vote by mail in chester county. of course, that is a democratic vote. the question becomes, when we get that vote by mail, hair ition -- harris has to move

passed the biden number. will it do it for her? giant county. more votes to come. harris has to get passed the biden number. no vote by mail left in montgomery, move to bucks county. two thirds is in right here. it would be if trump hangs on here. it will be a flip. again of the immediate philadelphia area counties this one a little more blue collar than the ones i just showed you. that is the trend we are seeing in erie northampton, a lot of places tonight. giving you democratic, big democratic vote areas, bucks not withstanding. southwest pennsylvania two big counties here. we have washington all in. i want to draw your attention to this. two big bedroom communities of pittsburgh. in washington county donald trump improved tonight. core republican area he wanted to boost his numbers. you can see in washington he has.

if you go next door to westmoreland county it is bigger. there are still votes to come there. trump currently take a look at this. 28 points with his margin. 36 here right now. finishes above the 28 that is what he wanted to be doing. democrats it will take something massive out of philadelphia where really the numbers are disappointed to them so far. and, again, out at chester, with the vote by mail. more to come. we will get bigger margins with what is to come. 170,000 votes. that is trump's advantage here. in 90% in pennsylvania. checking on allegheny. trump wins the state he probably has got this. >> thank you very much. we have a call to make. nbc news can project at this hour, a big one. that the republican party will control the united states senate. that, now what tipped it over is that nbc news is also projecting a couple senate

races since we last checked in on senate. right now in nebraska, republican fischer held off a challenge from interestingly an independent challenger. not a democrat, independent. ran a close fought race against senator fischer. she will be returning to the senate. shows you a little bit how things proceeded in the nebraska senate race. i should tell you that earlier than this, in the utah senate race. nbc news also projected a winner in the utah senate race. this is the seat that is left by mitt romney. you saw senator romney it will be held by republican, john curtis. after he secured that and fischer got hers it put control on the books according to nbc news projections.

what is your reaction to that? >> in the event of a harris precedency she probably would not be able to get any federal judges confirmed. i mean and. like not any district court, not and appeals court, not supreme court for four years. on the other hand in trump precedency it means all of those judges can just sail right through. it could mean that donald trump manages to broker the retirement of two republican supreme court justices and replaces them with much younger justices. it, so, the issue now becomes what about the house of representatives? what will we end up in the house? >> if the house, if the democrats can get control of the house then they really have control of government. if they do not have control of the confirmation process. that is gone. that is already gone. but, in terms of what could happen legislatively, the house will be in control of that. meaning they can prevent any of

the worst things. >> let me say -- we have eyes on howard university right now. we can tell you that vice president harris is not expected to speak tonight. we are seeing quite a crowd there. we are expecting, within the 2- minute warning from a statement that we are expecting from the harris campaign co-chair. expected to address this crowd at howard in a moment. we don't expect to be hearing from vice president harris. i think actually if we can go to it live we can hear him and what he is going to say to the crowd and how the crowd receives him. this is live from howard university in washington, d.c. good evening, howard! [ cheers and applause ]

>> good evening aq. i want to say good evening to all of the harris campaign, the campaign family, thank you for all that you have done. thank you for being here. thank you for believing in the promise of america. we still have votes to count, we still have states that have not been called yet. we will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted. that every voice has spoken. so, you will not hear from the vice president tonight. but you will hear from her tomorrow. she will be back here tomorrow to address not only you and supporters but to address the

nation. so, thank you. we believe in you. may god bless you. may god keep you. and the go harris! thank you, all. [ cheers and applause ] arris! thank you, all. [ cheers and applause ] . >> a short and to the point statement. the harris campaign co-chair. speaking to what is still a considerable crowd at howard university in washington, d.c. they start to leave the grounds. they are letting the crowd that was assembled there for the harris campaign and for in support of vice president harris letting everybody know she will not be speaking on any subject over the course of this evening. he is saying we still have votes to count. we still have state that have not been called yet. you will not hear from her tonight. he did say you will hear from her tomorrow. indicating she may be speaking from howard tomorrow. both addressing hu and the

nation in his words. >> and i just wanted to sort of reemphasize the point that lawrence made before that speech about where we stand tonight. we are looking at a map that appears to show, a national 3-4 point swing from 2020 towards the republican party. we have called the senate for the republican party. they were always favored to take the senate given the map. not hugely surprising. there is a weird wrinkle here. it is the house of representatives n. 2016, when trump won that race despite losing the popular vote, he won the house majority. joe biden he had the senate and the house trifecta thanks to the two georgia runoffs. it is a genuine possibility should trump win the precedency that is not called the democrats could take back the house from republicans. this is not crazy talk. there is not like with 1:00 in

the morning and i am punchy. mathematically, based on what we know, that is possibility. it could be consequential. >> as we see house races get called and watch for a flip and we will have to talk about it. you will not get away with leaving without talking about it. but before we leave howard university, we want to go there, we saw the reaction from the crowd from that high mounted shot of people turning and leaving. making clear that the vice president will not be speaking tonight. no one should wait to hear anything from her. it sounds like, was i right and understanding what he was saying that she will be back at howard tomorrow to make remarks? howard and the nation? >> reporter: yes, yes, you heard that right. the crowd, you heard that.

the rush to the exits. as soon as he said that people turned on their heels and they were out of here. the evening was getting somber as people realized what the map is looking like. she will be back tomorrow to speak to people here tomorrow and to speak to the nation. that of course is a logistical nightmare. the university was not expecting her to come back tomorrow. i don't know how large the crowd will be. a lot of unknowns in that statement. i do know there was a lot in her camp about when she should leave her and head here and her victory party on the one point they turned off the tv set and piped up the music because the room was getting increasingly somber. a lot of people here. you know, i have not had a chance to talk to people expressing disappointment. there is still a lot of people that are holding on to hope. trying hard to hold on to hope. the numbers it is, it is hard to do that in the face of a map that really looks like it is

presenting a very steep challenge. the country is still very divided >> to be clear. nbc news has called two of the swing states, georgia and north carolina for trump, they called senate control for the republican party. 5 swing states remain to be called. as you say, the internal map that we have been following with steve kornacki. the wins have created the mood that you are describing. the last thing we have from the harris campaign, the top of the harris campaign, the harris campaign manager said, you know, we always knew it was going to be down to the blue wall and the blue wall is uncalled at this point. it sounds like the harris campaign is keeping things tight in terms of stringing people along in thinking it will happen >> in that note that he sent out earlier, there was an

indication there, you know it came out an hour ago. telling people at that point, get some sleep. we will continue to count the votes and we will be back at it in the morning >> that is right. we, i imagine, are not freeing you to go to sleep any time soon. [ laughter ] we may be back with you yet. thank you for being there for us it is much appreciated. seeing richmond come out and say the remarks you can see how he can expect it to be the candidate. and harris is ahead and all of that. now we are waiting for blue wall states to come in. sending people home is like asking people to conserve their emotional energy asking people to conserve their emotional energy blue wall states to come in and watching the math. sending people home is also like asking people to conserve their emotional energy, i think. >> and it's not possible.

i think there's no other way to describe how people are feeling, leaving that venue, and people on the campaign then deflated in this moment. all the other states have not been called. but what they went to that venue and were hope to see and witness was the end of the trump era as they knew it, so we don't know the outcome yet. but that is not what they're receiving, and they're being told to go home and wait until tomorrow. that just -- it's a hard thing to hear. i just want to say one more thing. this has also made me think a lot about the campaign team. and i've done a lot of these campaigns. general dylan has three little kids. she spent years electing joe biden. she stayed in the white house to be the deputy chief of staff. then she went to the campaign and moved there to run this campaign. you have thousands of young people who have worked across the country, because they

believed in joe biden, and then they're like, we're here for kamala harris. we're fighting for democracy, we're fighting for abortion rights. all of those people are also sitting deflated at this moment, and maybe still hopeful too, but i've been thinking about them, because it's been quite a 107, 200 days for them. >> i think it's important to say, anyone who has experienced or been in the united states he for any period of time and experienced this country's history and knows it, could not have believed it would be easy to elect a woman president, let alone a woman of color. let's just be clear. nothing about yesterday about how flawlessly this campaign was run, is not true now. queen latifah never endorses anyone. she came out and endorsed her. she had every prominent

celebrity voice. she had the taylor swift -- the swifties, she had the b hive. you could not have run a better campaign. i still think that's true. the other important thing to say to people, because this is where it gets dicey. the fact that we now have to wait for more vote to come in, that is how the process works. there is an absentee ballot that needs to come in that needs to be counted. this is where we get to the point where donald trump can do the thing that donald trump does. which is to say, i like the way we are now, and anything that changes that, because there is still a chance that the remaining ballot could change what's happening now, so we have to be really vigilant and important in telling people and reminding people, until the votes are counted, we don't have an outcome, and people tc going home at howard, my concern is that it feeds a disinformation sort of doom

loop that could be exploited by those that have been exploiting this campaign. we've had someone maybe with a russia, you know, vpn, or maybe in russia calling in death threats. and those death threats were going, let's be clear, minority, black, and indigenous counties. sorry, bomb threats. >> two points on that. one to reinforce what joy is saying, what we know, but the truth bears repeating. we are counting all the votes and following all the facts. we l are not in a race to get t facts. we will follow them and they will come when they come. we are not in a prediction contest. we're not in a probability contest. we're not in, is your needle right contest, we're going to do that. so that's number one, and we're committed to that, and i wish everyone was committed to that, but we've learned not everyone is. full stop. >> why are you saying that? you sound like you're defending against something people are doing wrong. >> i think there are a lot of folks out there that don't care

about that. >> don't care about the real result, they want to jump to it before we know. i got you. >> so that, full stop. then there's the journalism of what we're seeing right now in the last ten minutes. we are seeing where both campaigns are at, which doesn't mean they know the future, which is why i so laboriously made that point. we are seeing trump think he will win the election and thought like that, and he lost. we saw the hillary clinton campaign in '16 really think they were going to win. so that's not predictive, or dispositive as the lawyers would say. but i stopped practicing. so it doesn't mean anything really, but i will say in reporting it, what we just saw from the harris campaign is their expectation is more pessimistic than optimistic. we didn't see a fire breather who said give us more time, we've got this.

it doesn't sound like a battle plan of here's the next 36 hours. it sounded more pessimistic. on the flip side, i don't mean in as an insult to donald trump, although it is a negative observation, the only time he's quiet and talks about things being fair, is if he's already won. when it's uncertain, he accuses, everyone of cheating and undermines people's trust in this, which is unfortunate. when he's losing, he's the loudest. last cycle, he came out and he did that. i'm sure other people can add insights to this, the harris campaign sounds like that, and he is as quiet as we've seen him. >> that is exactly what we're ha all observing is kind of the vibes you're seeing from people rush out of a venue that you ou just saw cedric richmond speak at, and not kamala harris and say i'm proud to be the next president of the united states. i would bet they had debates

internally, and you referenced this. should she go out and speak? should tim walz go out and speak? in 2004, john edwards went out and spoke. >> they sent edwards out. >> we all thought he was the great next hope. we were a little off on that. >> i erased him from my memory like he didn't exist. >> we saw when hillary clinton at the javits center. we saw the campaign also speak then. you have conversations with the campaign. i do think sending cedrick out there, who is not the candidate, not the vice presidential nominee is trying to be more business-like, right? than sending a message tothat, guys, we just don't want to keep you up until 5:00 a.m., it's going to happen. >> not the campaign manager. >> let me project for a moment, we do have a call. nbc news can project in the presidential race in new mexico, there is a winner.

the winner is vice president kamala harris. when the trump campaign was getting very, very, very cocky about how they were going to doo tonight, they talked about ed expanding the map to virginia, which they lost. they talked about expanding the map to new mexico, where they sent trump in the closing days. now nbc news has projected they have lost new mexico to kamala harris as well. we shall see. i think the democrats were hoping they'd do so well they'd expand the map to texas and iowa, and they didn't win either of those either. at this point, we have two of the seven swing states called. north carolina and georgia. both called for nbc news for donald trump. we're still watching the results come in in all of the other swing states. we're heading toward a 1:00 a.m. closing in alaska, that will be our last poll closing of the night. steve, as we're heading toward

that, what are you watching? >> yeah, i'm watching pennsylvania, because now we've inched over 90% in. trump's margin has moved over 200,000 votes in pennsylvania. that's a 3.5 almost point advantage for trump. what just happened and what's left? we just got a big piece of the puzzle. york county. this is a biggy. we just got all of the rest of the vote here. there was a lot outstanding. to put this in perspective, this is an improvement from trump over where it was four years ago. that completes pretty much the storyline in this region of the state. one of the big questions we asked in pennsylvania at the start of the night was, would trump decline further in this part of the state? he had dropped a bit in 2020. he didn't drop any further in counties like this tonight. lebanon county, lancaster county, cumberland county, now york county. where else did we just get results? we got it in westmoreland county. we're almost complete here.

big republican suburban areas. a big republican county outside pittsburgh. again, trump is running a little bit better than he did here in 2020. that's what his campaign wanted to see. we also got more results out of montgomery county. 86%. harris is winning in montgomery county. big suburban county right outside philadelphia. it's a 22 point margin for her. but what we've been watching is this harris number has been ticking down ever so slightly with every update. every update is the vote that was cast today. that is the most republican friendly vote. the vote by mail, the most democratic friendly, that was released early in montgomery county. so what are we still waiting on in pennsylvania? again, philadelphia. we've got about 80% of the vote in here now. harris's margin, 356,000. again, democrats want to get g that -- need it somewhere north of frankly 500,000 votes probably. again, jacobs said, going to be a big vote by mail update in the morning, and get some

clarity on that. democrats need to boost the number there. we are waiting as well in chester county on the vote by mail. >> sorry steve. didn't mean to catch up. this is our final poll closing of the night. it is 1:00 a.m. on the east coast. that means we've got our final poll closing, that is in alaska. right now, the projection in alaska is that it is too early to call between kamala harris and donald trump. in terms of the road to 270, this is where the two s candidates stand right now as they both try to get to 270 electoral votes. shazam. there it is. 246 electoral votes for donald trump. 194 electoral votes for kamala harris. in terms of the battleground states right now, let's look at the -- excuse me, sorry, battleground states right now. pennsylvania too close to call.

92% of the vote in. in michigan, it is too close to call, with just over 60% of the vote in. in wisconsin, it is too close to call with 114,000 votes between the two candidates. 86% of the vote in. in arizona, it is not too close to call. it is too early to call. we've got just over half the vote in in arizona. you can see the numbers there. and in nevada, similarly, it is not too close to call, it is too early to call, with 70% of the vote in, in nevada. looking at the alaska house race. the senate race right now in no alaska, but there is a house race in alaska that is of interest, and one of these races to watch in the country right now, in the alaska house race the where democrat incumbent, mary beer toe pertola is trying to hold onto

that. this race is at this point too early to call in the house race in alaska. that is where we stand. steve, i'll get back to you. >> so again, in pennsylvania here, about 220,000 just to reset. we were just looking at where else could votes be coming in, in significant numbers. center county here. we still have some to come. this is where state college is. now trump leading here right now, i believe vote by mail still to come here. this was a department county for joe biden in 2020. so an opportunity for democrats to add a little bit. penn state university right there. so there are some pockets. frankly, this should be a republican county in a big way by the end of the night. the vote by mail it looks like has been processed. there are pockets here where trump can gain too. but again, philadelphia, by far, the biggest thing outstanding. democrats just trying to squeeze everything they can out of those counties, but with 93% in, making up a deficit of 220,000, getting to be a very tall order for democrats.

i wanted to update wisconsin as well, as we approach 90% in the trump margin there, about 4 points. 116,000 votes. we have been following this story of dane county. been a ngbit of a mystery for some of the night, exactly how much vote was left. we actually believe now, take a look at this. we said it at the start of the night. the margin for democrats in 2020 was about 182,000 votes. so harris has now actually gotten basically to the biden level in 2020. and we believe there is a little bit more to come still in dane county. so it appears actually, that that question we posed at the beginning of the night here, could democrats squeeze more out of dane county than they've been getting? it looks like they may be able to do that. obviously, if they do, we expect them to break decisively for kamala harris. one other point as we get on pe the record as we look at the map of the country here and you see in gray the states that aren't called, you take a look

on the east coast here and this one stands out. new jersey. new jersey, which in 2020 was a state that joe biden won by 16 points. now nearly 90% of the vote is in here, and harris does have a pretty healthy lead over donald trump, but a couple things we can note here. i want to call your attention to this. this is passaic county. the city of paterson, new jersey is here. this is a plurality hispanic county, working class hispanic county. 42% hispanic. look at this, with just about all the vote in, trump is leading in passaic county. this was a 17 point joe biden victory in 2020. trump has turned that around and leads here. again, this is just as i look at this map county by county across the country tonight, even outside of the swing states, i am seeing this over and over again. counties with substantial hispanic populations, that's where trump is making his most dramatic gains. i think we had just mentioned new mexico a minute ago.

the trump campaign said they were targeting this. it's a five point win for kamala harris. but just take a look at the story of this. this is down from about 10 points for joe biden in 2020. i want to show you just two counties here to give you an idea. this is a microcosm of what i've been seeing around the country tonight. this is where albuquerque is. this is the big sort of metro, suburban high concentration of college degrees county we've been talking about. harris almost gets to the biden level here. is there isn't much of a drop off for harris here. now let's get to a county that's almost 70% hispanic. down where las cruces is. again, this is going to be a harris county tonight, but look at the change. this was almost a 19 point victory for joe biden, cut down by 10 points here. a core democratic county in new mexico. the counties in new mexico with the highest hispanic populations are where donald trump has made his gains. the reason he got this down to 5 points are the counties with

hispanic population there. so you're seeing that outside of the core battleground. as i've been showing you in pennsylvania all night, one of the stories to how donald trump has gotten this lead tonight has been all of these small and mid-sized cities. counties with significant hispanic populations, that's where trump has made gains. >> looking now at what remains outstanding. obviously, we've got senate races that have been outstanding. we galso have been talking abo control of the house. as far as i understand it right now, the most definitive thing we can say about the house is we're not going to know. that's because there's so many contested house races that are going to come out, even just in california. california very proudly, and with no compunction whatsoever, takes a long time to count. we'll get to it when we get to it. they've done that for years,

and there's no fighting with them about it. right now at this hour, i understand there are roughly two democratic flips. meaning seats that were held by republicans that are now held by democrats and roughly four republican flips. seats that were held by democrats that will in the in future be held by republicans. so we'll look at some of those m details and try to keep an eye on, look at all of the uncalled races. there's tons of them here. but with a republican controlled senate, and with sort of vibe check that getting from the two presidential campaigns, control of the house, as you mentioned, chris, could become one of the most important things in the country. >> let's go back to control of the senate for a moment. it's only control of the senate for two years. in the next two years, the democrats will have the advantage in the senate campaign that the republicans had this time, which is to say more republicans will be defending incumbent seats against democrat -- more republican seats will be

exposed to being flipped. so it is a two year hold by the republicans as of now. and you know that starting some time tomorrow, chuck schumer is going to be working on how to get that back in two years. >> you mentioned the judges, which is such an important generational piece to this. there's also the nominees, if it's kamala harris in the house, it's going to be extremely difficult to get nominees through. >> let alone judges. >> it's the flip side if trump is in the white house. some of these nominees, and this might be, we don't know where things will be, might be very easy to get through, or maybe people like there might be some who feel they're at t risk in two years, and maybe they'll surprise us. but that will have a huge impact. some of the people that trump would nominate might get through even if there should be greater concern. >> david jolly made this point when he was on with me the

other day. vice president harris's coalition, that includes the liz cheney's in the world, and the adam kinzinger, her allies are not in power. they're mostly members that have been turfed out. the current house is very trumpy. it's very far-right swinging. >> let by mike johnson who led the coup. >> even if you had a narrow democratic majority, it would be incumbent upon hakeem jeffries. he would have to do what speaker pelosi was able to do. it doesn't look like either side, either way would have a very large majority. >> though, if the democrats take the house, which again, it's going to be a while. everybody settle in. jamie raskin will be the chairman of the oversight committee. there will be people like that who help guide through, to be a check if there is a trump in

the white house with senate control by republicans. that could be an interesting dynamic of this that people are undervaluing at this moment. >> i just wanted to add one note of explanation about why california can take as long as it does. they actually don't have all the ballots tonight. the ballots can arrive in california, i think as much as seven days after election day. but for seven days after election day. so once they get all the ballots in a very, very close house race, then we can start to get to it. but it's not like they're sitting around, being slow about it. they literally g are waiting fo some ballots to arrive later this week. >> yeah. >> and it's the culture in california. there's no drama about this in california. it's not like people are gnashing their teeth in the state saying why is it taking so long? everybody knows, you can receive ballots for seven days after election day. >> there's a saying you've beenb hearing for years in the

democratic development about democracy is more than elections. and, you know, the reason i think that's an important statement to think about is, it's possible we don't know what the night is going to bring. the senate we've called for republicans. donald trump is currently up in pennsylvania. if he wins pennsylvania, he would be the next president of the united states. the house we're not going to know for weeks. but it's possible, the republicans will have a trifecta, as they did in 2016. in which case, the bullwork against whatever overreach there could be, and whatever those depordations might be, and i think they're going to overreach if they do, is democracy between elections. which is the work of the civil society, it's the work of institutions, it's the work of citizens, all of that super important stuff. we've seen it before. donald trump won an election in

2016. they were all fired up, and were going to repeal obamacare, and it didn't work. there were a lot of things that didn't work, because of basically the other parts of what american democratic culture is. and that was an important and meaningful lesson for the vibrancy of the american government. and there's been lots of tests to that in the intervening years. no one gets elected those things tonight. we're not going to make a call about those parts of civil society. those things are there on wednesday, thursday, friday, no matter who gets called where and in some ways, those are some of the most important attributes of american democracy. >> and governors. >> sure. >> there's another important part of this. and there are some incredible democratic governors out there who are overseeing big ig important states like california, and michigan, and pennsylvania. >> and maryland. >> and they become part of the

defense of democracy. and the defense of rights. and they take on a big role. >> if you're talking about policies like mass deportations, if you're living in a red state, you're more exposed in a way than you would be if you're living in a state with a governor who intends to protect you. so i think, these are the questions, and again, we're not there yet. we haven't gotten to that yet. but those are the things that people would then have to think about. where you live then suddenly becomes very important to what actual rights you have as a citizen. >> let me interject just for a moment. we have a change in a characterization. in nevada, we had previously had word from nbc news that this race was too early to call. now in nevada, in the presidential race, it is too close to call. you see 70% of the nevada vote in. a difference of just under 40,000 votes between the two

candidates. similarly, in the nevada senate race, the previous characterization by nbc news had been in the senate race that it was too early to call. but now in the nevada senate race, this is too close to call. this is democratic incumbent senator, jackie rosen, facing republican challenger, sam brown. it is too close to call and boy is it. look at that. 70% of the vote in in nevada. the difference between these two candidates, just barely 3,000 votes. look at that, 4,803,000 something, versus 480,000 and something. very close, and therefore too close to call race in nevada in that senate race. that's crucial not just to the future of jackie rosen versus sam brown, it's crucial to the margin in the senate, which hase all sorts of material consequences for what the republicans are going to be capable of sort of doing there. i interrupted you. >> we were going around doing this new exercise, we're not

there yet but -- so i thought i'd throw one in. >> hit it. >> i say it every time. we're not there yet, but -- we have now called, nbc has called a republican senate. donald trump has busted through his path ceiling, and he's doing better than he ever has before. we're not there yet. but in the event that you would have another trump term, you then have a very important thing that happens in democracy is it builds on what you each were saying, which is what did you vote for? did you vote for a different economy? did you vote for things that were promised to you to fix prices and inflation for populist agenda? other things? were you told that changes to certain international policies would benefit you in your own community? just as we talked about, the reaction of inflation and how

many years that takes. here's what some people said democracy and economy really out front there in people's estimations of their biggest issue. and do you find in 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, none of those things are being addressed? that's why we often see this back and forth with the midterm. i don't think anyone here is h getting ahead of the calls. we've emphasized that. or underestimating a very significant set of outcomes. but if people voted for the economy and other improvements and they don't get them quickly, there's no reason to think that they and others in the country will suddenly be just at peace with the nondelivery of that. the energy that's against washington and incumbents can just shift onto the next incumbents. we've had waves of angst through '16, through the covid

era, to the current era. >> i'm just advised. can i can ask the control room if we have somebody to go to on this? i think you just told me that you do. we think that republican t presidential candidate donald trump is on his way to go address his supporters. trump would be on his way to the palm beach convention center in florida. we don't know exactly the plans or exactly the timing for the plans, but that's why we're lucky enough to be able to check in with nbc's own von hilliard who is at trump's election night headquarters in florida. von, what are you seeing? >> reporter: we're in west palm beach, it's our understanding, he's beginning to make his way where he is set to speak soon. they were awaiting the campaigns for north carolina and georgia to be called. they were hopeful they would be

able to see a trajectory that was beneficial to them in the state of pennsylvania. it's not clear whether he intends to signal victory here or not, or whether they are saying they're in a good position. but this in talking to his folks that worked in his first white house and former staffers here, and allies. there are folks already talking about potential jobs in washington. they say they don't want to jinx it or get ahead of themselves. but there's a great number of staff members here in palm beach that have their eyes on ay second trump administration. i talked to roger stone, the long time friend and adviser to donald trump, who is over at the mar-a-lago estate, where trump was joined by elon musk and dana white, and others who have helped lift him up in previous months, including individuals like robert f. kennedy jr. there was a closer group of family and allies who are at the mar-a-lago estate watching these results come in,

before understanding that donald trump is making his way here. roger stone, i mentioned him, because really hehe's seen through 60 years of the republican party. and this is a moment in which i asked him very directly, you know, again, i understand that we are still counting votes at this time, but there is a part of the american electorate that has chosen to elevate somebody like donald trump potentially back to the white house. and i asked roger stone what did he make of this for the history books of watching after nine years of america become acquainted with donald trump, somebody who is so transparently brash and somebody who is so willing to denigrate his perceived enemies. he said to me, d how american. we embrace the imperfect. we're americans. that's donald trump. and donald trump is on his way now here at a moment of course, that would potentially in the days ahead lead to many conversations about the potential policy impact of what

a trump white house, with a republican congress could look at. but for now, of course, there are ballots still to be counted in several battleground states before donald trump would be able to decisively declare victory. but nonetheless, he plans to take the stage behind me here, just a few miles from his mar-a- lago estate. the place he has all but camped out in, over the last four years ever since the attack, and not attending the inauguration of joe biden. helping get maga allies of his a elected in the 2020 midterms, and donald trump here today about to take the stage at a moment in which he and his team feel like they have politically proved from these early results that he is in a good position here. guys. >> von, i don't know if you can hear me. i know there's big cheers going up from the crowd here. you mentioned at the onset, they wanted to see things going their way in virginia before he

spoke. he did not win virginia. do you know anything about the calculous to have him speaking anyway without another state that they're watching for under their belt? >> reporter: right. apologies for misspeaking on my part. i meant pennsylvania, where we go back to four years ago, where it was steve bannon who told trump to prematurely declare victory. he did just that. we asked him today whether he would potentially acknowledge that it may take several days to count ballots and be willing to acknowledge that he may not be able to declare victory tonight? he did affirmlitive say that we may not know the results at this point in time based off of nbc's and other news organizations, we have not called it. but of course, donald trump has

shown an eagerness to in 2012, and 2016, 2018, and 2020, and 2022, to declare victories even when news organizations have declared otherwise. we expect in a matter of minutes now, guys, to hear from the former president. >> von, we'll be back with you as the night progresses. trump has been watching election returns at his home a mar-a-lago, which i used to call a golf club, then i learned there is no golf club there. we expect him to be addressing that exaltent crowd. so we shall see. presumably he is to declare victory. we thought he would be declaring victory anyway tonight even if he was losing. we will have to wait until we see what those remarks are. >> ari made this point before, but how he's loudest when he

thinks he's losing, and more quiet when he thinks he's winning, at least in terms of what was coming out of that operation. trump has this sort of -- he can pretend to be magnanimous if he thinks he's winning. >> when has he ever done that? >> he can briefly pretend to be. he'll talk -- he will sometimes talk about things like unity or they'll try to keep him on unity in a prompter speech for like a few sentences. >> i'm not expecting a lot of that. >> i'm not expecting that. i'm just preparing people. there are these sort of brief glimmers of when his handlers have sort of puffed him enough where he does that. he may just riff about 1980s movies. you really never know. >> i feel like there's an aspect to all of this. it's 1:30, almost 1:30 a.m. here. and people -- some people are going to go to sleep, not us, of course.

but in western europe and in the uk and in the middle east, people are waking up to this. >> oh, and they are -- >> i'm thinking, the people who are going to wake up to donald trump's remarks tonight are people like emmanuel macron, and volodymyr zelenskyy, and the people in poland, and the people of gaza. >> i've already gotten a text from ghana, in south africa. >> i've gotten from people in western europe who are extraordinarily alarmed and terrified about what -- as one of a friend of a friend says maps being redrawn in western europe if donald trump is president. we think about the implications of all of this in domestic politics but the world is at a hinge point. this is very much an election about the global world order. we shouldn't think about as we go can to bed, and try to grapple with this, there's another side of the world waking up to this thinking about what this may mean, not

just for america, but for them. >> there are two of the seven swing states that have been called, which is north carolina and georgia. none of the other five have been called. the battleground states. pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin. the so-called blue wall. known of those states called by nbc news. what has been called is senate control. and of course, we can read the campaigns in terms of what they are saying without saying anything yet. >> and it's 8:25 a.m. ho in kyiv, where people are -- they wake up earlier than that. and they upare very worried as they look at where this election stands at this hour. >> and you've seen -- you know, there was a whole sort of constergration whether harris would embrace the movement the question was whether they should allow a speaker to

happen, whether she should go to deerborn and try to engage the arab community. you saw one gasupport harris in the end, the member of the state senator in georgia who was going to be the speaker had they allowed it to happen also endorsed and supported her. the irony is you had tiffany trump, who's husband is lebanese go in and try to push arab and muslim voters in the state of michigan to go for trump. the irony of that, of course, is nobody wanted donald trump to be president. nobody wants to be president more than netanyahu, who is backed by a far right coalition that would like to clear-cut gaza. it would truly like to complete a complete ethnic cleansing of gaza, so the consequences

ironically for those, hill, who be had a a staunch supporter of the palestinian rights came out in support of harris as well. that's one of the interesting questions. the outcome for people in gaza and in lebanon, if trump were to become president would be absolutely devastating. it would be everything netanyahu has wanted to do for 30 years. not just in gaza, but in the west bank and in lebanon. i think for people who care about that issue and that was t their voting issue, it would be highly ironic if the outcome, it was literally to make it far worse than the biden administration has made it. >> and to alex's point about the sort of reckoning that was happening, or at least thinking through the possibilities that are happening. there's like intelligence apparatuses in all of these places. there are a lot of conversations happening right now. there are going to be a lot of conversations happening right now, which ever way the night

went and whatever the indications were at this hour, but those conversations are happening in a lot of very different places at an incredibly high level with enormous stakes at play in both the middle east and in europe. >> one of the things that's going to happen if this goes the way -- if we follow this train of thought is that intelligence sharing between america and our traditional allies is likely going to end. the whole five eyes thing is likely going to end. if you've got america switching sides in the ukraine russian war to instead support russia or to become neutral, which in this means would be to support russia. if you've got ongoing secret communications even out of government between the republican nominee and the person who funded his campaign and led his ground game, right? both of whom are communicating with the russian government without reporting that information to the u.s. government, and on top of that, you've got reporting from the "new york times" that they're considering once there is a

second trump administration, it happens, to stop performing background checks before giving people security clearance. meaning giving classified information to anyone. that's supposedly at the instigation of a trump campaign official who was born in moscow, who was unable to get a security clearance in the first term. who has had multiple arrests and is reportedly on top of a short list for white house counsel. which means handing out classified information on the corner. you are not going to have american allies who have been relying on us as the pinnacle intelligence agency in the world since world war ii. you are not going to have continued sharing of information with a new administration that has an open line with vladimir putin and that is going to essentially be willing to handle classified information the way the man whoa

was indicted for handling it the way he did it at mar-a-lago at the top, and with handling security clearances the way they've been reportedly described. that's something that will happen -- >> it's a different world. >> that's something that will happen in the transition. it's not something that happens in january. if we're at that level, if that's the kind of transformation that's happening in terms of america on the world stage, the idea of there being a part of the u.s. government that is still in democratic party hands becomes a very interesting thing in terms of the stability of the world, right? because it puts donald trump in the position, if the house is controlled by democrats, puts ed him in the position of having to decide whether he's going to do what other autocrats have ha done, which is to essentially eliminate the function of the legislature. right? that's one of the things they do from orban to putin and p

everybody. you do that when your opponents still have some foothold there. that's just going to push those questions right to the very front, very fast. and i for one am glad to have a little breathing room before we get there. >> if stephanie was here, she would say that you think about the u.s. bond market. you think about the way that the u.s. has sort of a reserve currency for the world, and the rest of the world counts on political stability here to help to create political and financial stability globally. so these are the things that people who are voting on very g particular issues, the price of eggs, i'm voting on this one thing. it's not something you have to think about. it's not your job to think about. you're thinking about the things, or who you vibe with as a candidate. but the implications of who is the american president go far beyond, right, who you like and who you prefer performatively in the white house.

it matters for the stability of our currency and our economy. if our economy cannot survive an unstable white house, then everyone will suffer. everyone who is thinking they're going to get $1 a gallon gas, welcome to the world in which the united states is an unstable, unreliable country with whom western europe cannot ally. welcome to the world in which the united states is seen as maybe a threat to global security. you know? these are the things, it's not that it's any voter's job to think about it, but somebody's going to think about it. >> the last profile, the vanity fair profile of steve bannon that ran before the election, which ran while he was in prison, before he got out, the sort of culminating point of it is that bannon's dream for the second trump presidency is to get rid of the dollar. >> yes. >> so if that's the -- >> like crypto? >> that the dollar should no longer be the world's reserve currency.

in fact, maybe the dollar itself is a bad idea. if that's what we're going to be entertaining, then exactly what you're talking about is exactly where we're at. >> i'm open to eliminating the penny. >> we've been trying to get rid of that forever. >> daylight savings, let's go. >> and you have multiple senate seats, at least the one that we've called actually being purchased in a sense. just straight out by people who are crypto, multimillionaire. that class of u.s. oligarch is not anymore just funding the candidates they want. they're just going to be the candidates they want. so you're now seeing the u.s. go in a position so much more like the oligarchy that it started out as. it does make you wonder, sort of what does that look like if the u.s. goes very far in the direction of a hungary? what does that look like? hungary is a small economy.

we're the united states. if our political structure, our social structure and economic structure is more like hungary, -- >> let's go back to steve kornacki, looking at ongoing returns in pennsylvania. steve, are we at 94% in, in pennsylvania? is that what i'm seeing? >> yes, 94% here. trump's lead at 190,000 votes. that works out to a 3 percentage point lead. it is a very significant hill for kamala harris to climb here. just in terms of what's left, the picture is really kind of condensing and clarifying. obviously the biggest outstanding source of lavotes i right here in philadelphia. the city of philadelphia. you see with 83% there. it's a lead there of about 58 points for harris. i'm just glancing over to get the number. we expect there are still 137,000 or so votes to come out of philadelphia. remember, a chunk of them are going to be that vote by mail that's going to come out tomorrow morning. the wild card in philadelphia, in which i think has kept folks

at bay here, is provisional ballots. it is a big number of provisional ballots and these are expected to break decisively to the democrats. how many? in 2020, the covid year, there were about 100,000 provisional ballots in the midterm. in the 2022 midterm, about 45,000. so the question is, how many of them are there? and what is that remaining provisional value ballot pool plausibly something there that could boost the democrats th enough to make up for this big gap they have statewide now, which i'll show you, 190,000 votes there. you've got what's left in philadelphia. the provisional ballots in philadelphia. that's what the democrats are hanging their hopes on. the rest of the counties here, we're just waiting on a little bit from chester county. democrats will gain some here but at a 54, 44 clip, anything like that is not going to be a

huge gain. some in montgomery county. again, it's about a 60/40 split of what's to come, that won't net out to a ton. then there are places to come with significant vote work. look, trump is running ahead in bucks county now by 2.5 points. this is just the mail in vote. you're talking 10s of thousands of votes still to come here in a place that trump won by almost 40 points. he's going to make up ground there. he's going to make up ground still in a place like school kill schulykill county. tellsstand democrats stand to make gains. the provisional vote, that looms as a wild card here, but again, looking at a mountain of 191,000 votes, you've got to make up with this little left

in pennsylvania. you know, that's looking like close to a mount everest there for harris. >> can we look at pennsylvania senate before we leave the state of pennsylvania? >> yes, let's call it up right there. this is basically the same situation there. there is a bit of separation there. bob casey is running a bit above harris's number. let's just show you the eye test there. again, the presidential race. 50.9 to 48 flat. while 191,000 is that steep when you look back at the senate race, 88,000 with what's remaining in terms of the votes in philadelphia in terms of the vote by mail in philadelphia in

terms of potentially the provisional ballots. that is closer. that's decidedly more doable. just given the numbers that are left for the democrats, for bob casey to potentially make that up. there is a bit of separation here. we were wondering about this, how much did the sort of partisan split roll down to the senate race? you can see to a great degree, it's rolled down to pennsylvania. but is this one separated enough for the democrats where what's left could have boosted bob casey? there's suspense there right now. >> steve, while we're waiting for donald trump to speak to to his supporters in palm beach. i'd love teto hear your take. wisconsin, michigan, take your pick. >> let's take a look in wisconsin. we have more complete results in wisconsin. michigan still remains a bit of a miss mismash here. hovde with a two and a half

point advantage over the incumbent, tammy baldwin. watch it flip from 50.1 from hovde, to 51.3 for trump. given how tight wisconsin might come here, it's a 121,000 vote advantage for trump. you take a look at the senate race, and it's a little more than half that. so again, baldwin behind, but running substantially closer to hovde than in the presidential race, we're seeing with trump and harris here. so again, if this thing becomes tight enough, if you're in a situation ever, where trump eeks out a victory in a presidential, and hovde is running a point or so behind him, there's the potential there for a split as well. remember in wisconsin, in 2020, it was a difference of 20,000 votes that separated trump and biden. in 2016, there was a senate race, the outcomes did sync up

that time with trump and ron johnson winning. these basic dynamics, i want to take a look here. i did want to see, baldwin has gone to 183,000. and i wanted to measure this against -- yeah, they're equal. this is significant, because we've talked about it all night. now officially, harris has expanded the democratic margin in dane county. about 182,000 last time. so this is yet again this century, democrats are getting more out of dane county. that's rolling right over, as you would expect to the senate race as well. >> so parallels there. can we look at michigan? >> yes. so michigan though, 70% of the vote is in here. 52-point, 46. i think you can see where this one's going. it's a similar story. mike rogers, runs a bit behind trump. what's confusing about michigan right now, there's still a lot of counties here, big important counties where we just do not have clarity. a lot of this is done in

michigan. it's a very decentralized process. it's done at the municipal level. i'll give you an example here. macomb county. we've got half the vote. democratsprobably want more out of oakland county, than slotkin is getting. what's macomb going to do compared to oakland? half of the vote still to come. a substantial improvement from the republican number in 2020. so we need to see more to be able to make some of these comparisons. about a third of the vote is in for wayne county. questions about the city of detroit. questions about the muslim and arab vote throughout the county. it's a lot of a mismash in michigan right now to make sense of the races. but there is potentially

separation between the candidates. >> could we go to arizona? >> i'm curious gotoo. about half the vote statewide. this is . going to kind of, they're going to add the same day vote tonight, and it's going to be a long sort of t count in arizona for the rest of the week. take a look now at the senate race. a 6 point deficit for kari lake for what's been counted in the senate race. and less than a one point deficit for kamala harris. we suspected arizona might be the state where kari lake, who lost the contest two years ago, didn't concede that 2022 gubernatorial loss, so we expected there might be the most separation there. you're southeastern seeing it there. also, lest move up. nevada, again now -- in nevada, it's similar to arizona. we've got a ton of vote here. but it's going to be a bit slow getting the rest in here. so what's been counted so far,

trump with a 4 point lead there in the presidential. call up the senate race. again, that's, inagain, like arizona, it might not be quite as dramatic, but that's a pretty substantial difference between these two candidates. again, i think that's a very important story. i'm glad you had me run through these, because i've been so focused on the presidential. we've seen to some degree, separation where the democratic senate candidate is running better than kamala harris. >> steve, you can say no, because i know i'm overworking you. but can we talk about some of the uncalled presidential states. i would be interested in new jersey and also new hampshire. >> part of the problem in new hampshire, again, you see all the gray on here. also, you see all of these puzzle pieces, unlike other states, new hampshire doesn't report out by county. they report out by municipality. so you've got some cities in here and also a lot of just

small towns, villages, hamlets kind of, where you're just still waiting on numbers. that last 15% or so in new hampshire could take a long time. not come in election night. not come in those overnight hours. we can show you some of the places we're looking at. statewide, that's almost a 5 point lead for kamala harris. that's down a little bit from where the stand landed in 2020, when biden won it by just over 7 points. this would be a good example. pelham, new hampshire, right on the new hampshire/massachusetts line. this is a big town that trump lost ground in. lost ground in, in 2020. he had won it by about 25. fell down to about 20 points in 2020. you can see he has got it back up to that 2016 level in pelham. there's a number of towns. here's a big one we're waiting on. this is the kind of thing, salem again right over the massachusetts line. again, it's a place where trump won it by 20 points.

this is big by new hampshire standards. 20 points. came down to 13 points. trump needs to get that back over 14 points. we can take a look. derry, new hampshire. a pretty big sighed blue collar town. sized blue collar town. cut in half in 2020. he's gotten back, not quite though, to 2016 level. i think to really have a shot in new hampshire, trump would have , to be exceeding the 2016 level. he nearly won new hampshire in 2016. in a place like derry, he wants to be going over the 2016 number. take a look at londonderry. he's improved on 2020. the trump campaign would look at londonderry and say they want to is have more improvement than that. there are some outstanding

this map still, but he needs to take bigger steps forward. that's why you see it's a five point lead here for harris. with so much to come and such a slow reporting decentralized state, you're not getting a call there. j.d. vance was sent here on sunday when they talked about potentially expanding the battleground, it was this. it was new mexico. it's an improvement it looks like for trump. but you're not looking at these numbers saying these are going to give trump victory in new in hampshire. >> last one i'm going to ask you about steven, i'm not even supposed to, but i'm going to. aminnesota. >> yeah, this is ishades of 2016. let's go out to minnesota. three quarters of the vote is in. uncalled. of course tim walz, the governor of minnesota, the democratic vice presidential candidate and yet, compare what we're looking at right now in minnesota to what we saw four years ago. seven points, cut more than in half at this point. a three point harris lead.

it's a pretty good cushion she has there. but this is a drop off for democrats in the vice presidential candidate's home state. i wanted to extend it out further. remember, in 2016, this was one of the states that trump almost got. he got pennsylvania. he flipped michigan. he flipped wisconsin. he flipped on the strength of blue collar white voters. minnesota has a ton of blue collar white voters. again, this number tonight is not looking as much like 2020 as it is 2016. again, what saves democrats even in a close call like this in minnesota, what saves democrats is the immediate twin cities area here. we talk about hennepin county. it's the big population dense suburbs, cities where again, high concentrations of college c degrees. again, right on the number. harris is right on the number. she's not dropping off at all in hennepin county. even if trump is making gains, winning back some of the votes

that he surrendered in 2020, democrats count on this area, take a look at where st. paul is. again, right on the number there for harris. typically for democrats, if they can hit the big margins in the twin cities, they can with stand defections or losses in the more blue collar areas. it looks like trump has made gains in the blue collar areas, but the reason he's still trailing is the twin cities are doing what democrats depend on them to do. >> steve kornacki, that was me putting you through the races. you're quite amazing. we're going to give you a break. we're going to take a quick break and come back on the other side of this. stay with us. and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. [sofi mnemonic] (♪♪) can a mortgage move you forward? absolutely. sofi has helped over 130,000 people take the leap toward home ownership.

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welcome back to our coverage of the presidential election. it is 1:52 a.m., which means we are obviously at our best. 2 of 7 swing states having

called by nbc news. north carolina and georgia both are projected as having been won by republican candidate donald trump. now, on the democratic side, the campaign that had posted up at howard university in washington dc, the alma mater of democratic candidate kamala harris, the co-chair of the campaign came out and told the assembled crowd there, as our correspondent told us, michelle norris told us, the increasingly somber crowd, told them basically to go home. that vice president harris would not make remarks tonight. that she would be speaking both to howard university and the nation tomorrow. that sort of ended the, ended the physical in person event for the harris campaign tonight at howard university. on the republican side, donald trump has been watching election returns at his home/private club/membership club thing at mar-a-lago and has since, um, moved to the

palm beach convention center where his supporters have been gathered over the course of the evening watching returns. they are now preparing to hear from their candidate. we don't know exactly when donald trump is going to speak or exactly what the character of his remarks will be. our own vaughn hillyard is live there tonight as the crowd has become increasingly excited about the results of the race. vaughn, what are you expecting in terms of what we'll hear from their candidate tonight? >> reporter: right, rachel, i think it's notable number one that he's waiting to take the stage. of course, the hope from the campaign is that this race would be completely called in his favor, and he'd be declared the 47th president elect of the united states of america. of course, north carolina and georgia are two states they were specifically waiting to be called before he took the

stage. nbc news has called both those states. when you're looking at the battleground data throughout the midwest, right now the trump campaign officials are telling us they're very eager about the direction this is going. and i think it's important to kind of scene set for everybody what this event, venue looks like tonight. donald trump was first watching the results come in alongside the likes of ufc's dana white, elon musk, robert f. kennedy jr. at mar-a-lago. roger stone. other close campaign advisors. there were a great many staffers from his white house that left trump world, and those that stuck around at mar-a-lago, as he sort of existed in florida in isolation, that's those folks who three and a half years later are the ones here in west palm beach at the convention center about to celebrate alongside donald trump as he declares victory

or gives the indication he intends to in the days ahead. we're talking about rudy giuliani and roger stone. those are folks that have really stood by donald trump throughout the years, and it's not nikki haley or ron desantis who are going to be joining him on stage, but it's those loyalists, including at the staff level, that will be the ones that take his side here tonight. we expect j. d. vance who went from mar-a-lago in the motorcade with donald trump. j. d. vance who eight years ago was saying the country should be warned about donald trump could potentially do to the country. referring to him as america's hitler. but in 2022 he ultimately ran with a trump endorsement, and since has been by his side. we are going to see j. d. vance here take the stage alongside donald trump. so there's a lot at play when we talk about what this

administration could look like with extent to aid to ukraine, whether elon musk takes a roll in the federal government. elon musk himself says he intends to cut the federal budget by a third. that's $2 trillion. of course there's conversations around social security, defense spending, medicaid and medicare. the likes of conversations that go at the use of the department of justice. steve bannon has been airing his podcast war room from the willard hotel in washington dc alongside the likes of jeffery clark, who was the individual that donald trump had tried to install as attorney general after the 2020 election when he was trying to hold on to power. so for donald trump, he and his team, they have made the case for the last years that the country was by his side. not only the republican party, but they'd be effectively able to build the maga movement. and so far our data has shown us he was able to grow support

among voters of color. young voters. he was able to do it by denigrating his opponents, suggesting members of the price, that he'd be fine with them being shot. there's a reckoning here of whether donald trump is ultimately called the victor in this race or not. of course, the ballots will be counted. but at a minimum, the maga movement has grown over the course of nine years. we've watched it up close. and donald trump feels like this republican party is not only his, but also the american electorate has given him a resounding head nod that they back his intended use of a greater executive office and a, a teaming up with a republican congress potentially that could very well pass the maga agenda that donald trump has been clearly outlining for the american public over the course of the last years.

>> vaughn, in terms of what happens next, one of the things that's been sort of an unusual, like a thing to get your head around, and the reporting has been really fuzzy, is that the trump campaign didn't participate, at least didn't seem to participate in any of the standard transition things that, that campaigns are supposed to do. the way the transition process is structured, it's supposed to be set up so if either candidate from either major party wins, each already has plenty of runway, plenty of onramp, plenty of ability to integrate their transition team seamlessly into the government so they can take office on inauguration by one seamlessly. the trump campaign has refused to do any of that. and in fact, trump has refused intelligence briefings throughout the campaign itself. and so part of the question here is how well stood up are they as a professional organization in order to take on the responsibilities of government if