good day. i'm chris jansing live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. paying the price. donald trump vows to punish canada, mexico and china with tariffs, squeezing their economies until they, in his words, stop the crime and drugs coming over the border. but could a trillion dollar trade war end up hurting the very people trump's promising to help? plus, on the brink of a breakthrough. israel's prime minister set to speak any moment now as the country considers a permanent cease-fire with hezbollah and lebanon. could it put pressure on hamas to seek peace as well? and ready, set, go sit in traffic. 80 million people on the move for thanksgiving, including a potentially record-setting number getting on to planes. but coast to coast storms could make it anything but smooth sailing. a lot to get to, but we start with president-elect donald trump, firing the first shots in what could ultimately

become an international trade war, one he insists will make america more prosperous and safe, but one experts say could have the exact opposite effect. the idea, according to trump, is to threaten massive 25 to 35% across the board tariffs against mexico, china and canada, hoping it forces them to keep migrants and feint nil from ntanyl from the u.s. whether it could work is very much an open question, but this morning, leaders from china and mexico are already warning it could spark a trade war, which would mean higher prices on things that americans use every day. that includes crude oil and gas coming from canada, cars and car parts imported from mexico and computers and smartphones being shipped in from china. add to that other countries could fight back by slapping tariffs on u.s.-made exports. trump, though, is adamant. >> to me the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. and it is my favorite word.

if i run this country, if i'm going to be president of this country, i'm going to put a 100, 200, 2,000% tariff. they're not going to sell one car into the united states. because we're not going to destroy our country by -- so when -- because i know you're an antitariff guy, but i'm the exact opposite. >> i want to bring in nbc's guad venegas along the border, peter baker is an msnbc political analyst, mark short was chief of staff to vice president mike pence and is a contributor to nbc's "meet the press," also with me cnbc's eamon javers. tell us more about the impact these tariffs could have. what about the prices that we pay every day for lots of stuff? >> chris, bottom line is those prices are going to have to go up if these tariffs go into place. the way the former president always talks about tariffs is he says i'm going to slap a tariff on china, i'm going to slap a tariff on mexico. makes a lot of people think that

china or mexico are paying those tariffs, but the way the tariffs actually work is that american importers pay the tariff, the tariff is basically a tax on imports, it is paid by an american company to the u.s. government to bring in those products that you just listed. and then that american company has to figure out what to do. are they going to eat the cost of that, and have that erode their bottom line or are they going to pass that cost on to their own customers? typically they're going to pass that cost on to their own customers and that will cause prices to rise. at some level, they might eat some of the cost. you might have importers really suffering here and taking some of the losses, but those losses have to go somewhere and a lot of them are going to end up going to consumers. >> peter, do we know why a president-elect trump keeps coming back to tariffs? he seems to think of this as this economic magic bullet, but a lot of economists say it would actually make things worse. >> yeah, he does look at it as a magic elixir, no question about it. it is the thing he found most appealing in his first term when

it came to economic policy in part because it is something a president can do with his own authority. he doesn't need to go to congress on this, he already has the executive authority inherent in the office, from past legislation to go ahead and slap these things on. and, look, this is one of the few core things that trump actually believes. a lot of his positions on various issues are transactional, he was for abortion rights before he was against abortion rights before he was again, but against it. when it comes to the idea of trade, the idea of foreign partners who have been in his view shafting the united states, that's a core feeling he had been nursing since the 1980s, and so tariffs are his way of expressing national interest, as he sees it. america first, and the idea is to protect american industries, give american industries, you know, incentive to do better and do more here at home, keep jobs here at home, and so forth. but you're right, this will, of course, cost americans consumers. at the same time, the incoming president said he's going to defeat inflation and inflation

is down to around normal level right now, 2%. but the prices haven't come down. it means the increase isn't going up anymore, and those prices won't come down if we're putting tariffs in a lot of things that americans buy. >> trump's nominee for treasury secretary wrote about this recently in an op-ed, he said that tariffs can be a negotiating tool with our trading partners. could that be what's going on here? he's using it as a negotiating ploy. >> i think it could be. the reality is i remember when he got -- the mexicans were opposed to keeping asylum seekers in their country before entering the united states. when trump proposed a massive tariff on mexico, they quickly changed and came to the negotiating table with mike pompeo and mike pence negotiate the mexico policy. i think he's very effective at this. i think he uses it for leverage. i agree with what peter said, the two things the president

stayed consistent on are the border and tariffs. and i think that there is some people in marketplace who assume that bessent will have this calming effect as there are a lot of free traders in first administration that there was the navarro crowd and the mnuchin and kudlow crowd and it gave assurances to the market. i don't that's the case this time. i think this administration will be far more protectionist. i think this is just the tip of the spear, what he's looking to do as far as advancing a far more significant protectionist policy this could be leverage. it is effective in getting mexico to play a much larger role and he's been very good at that. i think this is a pretense of what we should be expecting for the next four years as well. >> so, we all saw what happened to joe biden's approval ratings when we saw how high the grocery prices went up. the things people use every day. energy prices is a perfect example of that. buying a new phone for a

birthday present or christmas present, very common. if he imposes these kinds of tariffs, how quickly could we potentially see what might happen in terms of the prices that people actually pay and the decision the other governments make about with whether they absorb some of it? >> well, it will take some time for this to roll through the economy, no doubt. you could see prices going up in a matter of months as people anticipate what is coming and start to shift their pricing in due course. if you look at the way this is going to roll out, it is sort of unilateral tariffs from the united states, then the other countries will probably respond to that with tariffs of their own on things that the united states exports. so that will cause some friction for u.s. exporters as well. all of that will have ramifications for the economy. as you say, chris, what we just learned from this election is that inflation is toxic to incumbent presidents. this incumbent president is going to be different. trump 2, donald trump said he's not running for re-election for a third term. the constitution says he can't do that. so he might not care necessarily

or he might have a higher political tolerance for pain in the short-term up front if he thinks he's going to get what he wants on the back end. >> so, mark, i want to show folks a new cbs poll. it takes a measure of how people are feeling about the tariffs. they favor them, americans, by a flight majority. among trump voters, look at that number, a whopping 83% approve. do you think they're just trusting it will be good? do you think they can turn quickly if those prices turn quickly as eamon points out? what is the potential political risk here? >> i think that the president has been very effective as eamon said of telling the american people that people should be paying tariffs to get access to our markets and all the american economy has to offer. i think that notion is very appealing, but as eamon said, a lot of people don't realize it is importers in america paying that tariffs and it is passed on

to consumers. the reality is we haven't had a full-on significant progressive trade policy since smoot holly. i don't think there has been a real context to what we're probably going to encounter over the next couple of years. it is understandable that a lot of people sympathize and say, yeah, to get access to our markets, people should be paying, but i don't think they really appreciated what the consequence with the price increases could be over time. >> so time will tell, but guad, you were in eagle pass, where the governor of texas is, along with the incoming border czar tom homan, donald trump's selection for border czar. talk about how trump is tieing the trade threats to the border and in particular immigration and drugs and the reality on the ground. >> reporter: well, chris, the expectation here is that with these tariffs, trump and his administration would be pressuring mexican authorities to enforce immigration on mexico's northern border.

when trump was president the first time around, mexico created its national guard, that's a federal police agency that worked at the border and a lot of the officers spent time stopping migrants from crossing into the united states. that's the only time we have seen heavy enforcement on the mexican side with its own officers. this came after trump had pushed for that remain in mexico immigration policy. and mexico came to an agreement with the u.s. now, that has stopped since. and the last few years we have seen mexican immigration ease off on that enforcement. when we saw the surge at the border here, we didn't see mexican immigration officers or the national guard stop a lot of the migrants that were coming into the u.s. so the expectation here is to have mexico begin enforcing its immigration laws to stop any of the migrants and somehow that will motivate the government, right, because you're going to have a lot of mexican companies that are worried because of the tariffs. the expectation is mexico would

negotiate by investing once again on the immigration forces. what is interesting to see is that mexico's national guard, enforcing immigration laws at the border, has now become part of the military as of this year. so before it was a policing agency. so mexico is going through its own changes. essentially they would have to use their military at its northern border if they were to do what they did the first time around, when trump was president. >> thank you very much for that, guad, thanks to all of you. i want to go to israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu is speaking as the country considers a pean let's listen. >> translator: appreciation throughout the world and radiate israel's strength throughout the middle east and primarily to iran. we have destroyed big parts of iran's aerial defense, of its ability to manufacture missiles. and we destroyed a big part of its nuclear plan. i am determined to do everything

that it takes in order to prevent iran from gaining nuclear weapons. this threat has always been my top priority, and even more so today when we're hearing the repeated announcements by iran's leaders of their intention to obtain nuclear weapons. to me, removal of this threat is the number one goal in order to guarantee the survival and future of the state of israel. we dismantled the hamas battalions, killed about 20,000 terrorists. we killed other senior officials in that organization and returned 125 of our hostages. we are obligated to return the 101 hostages alive and dead that are still in gaza and to bring an end to the terrible suffering of their families. and we're committed to finish the destruction of hamas.

we are destroying hundreds of terrorists and terrorist infrastructure and have been operating everywhere that there are terrorist cells. in yemen, we have -- we strike in a port where the international coalition has not done that before. in iraq, we are stopping big drone attacks and still we have a lot of challenges ahead. in syria, we are systematically thwarting the iran hezbollah and syrian armies' attempts to pass armaments into lebanon. assad must understand he's playing with fire. and now to the seventh front, lebanon. hezbollah has chosen to attack us from there on october 8th. it has been a year. it is not the same hezbollah anymore. we push hezbollah decades back.

we have killed nasrallah, the head of the snake. we have killed all of the leaders. we have destroyed most of the rockets and missiles. we killed thousands of terrorists and we destroyed the underground and terrorist infrastructure near our borders that have built over years. we attacked strategic targets throughout lebanon and destroyed many targets. lebanon is not the same. citizens of israel, only three months ago all of this would have sounded like science fiction. but it is not. we made it. and i would like to say to you, in any given moment during this war, i have my eyes on all the fronts at the same time. this is what i did. this is what i had in mind at the beginning of the war, i

decided to focus on gaza and lebanon. this is what i did a few months ago when the conditions were ripe to turn our gaze northward and then we attacked hezbollah. this is what i did after the attack by iran when we meticulously decided how and when to strike back. and this is what i'm doing today as well. i'm looking at all of the fronts simultaneously, i'm seeing the bigger picture. and i am determined to let our soldiers, our brave soldiers and give them all of the means they need to stay alive, stay safe and bring us the victory. that's why tonight i will bring before the cabinet a plan for a cease-fire in lebanon. the duration of the cease-fire depends on what happens in lebanon. we have an understanding with the united states. we are maintaining our full

liberty to take military operations. if hezbollah tries to attack us, if it arms itself, if it rebuilds infrastructure, next to the borders, we will attack them. if they launch missiles, if they dig tunnels, we will attack. yes, i can hear people saying that if we start a cease-fire, we will not be able to attack, we will not be able to resume the war, let me remind you this is exactly what people said to me when we entered into the cease-fire in gaza in which we released our hostages. people say to me, well, hezbollah will lay low for a year or two, will rearm itself and then it will attack us, but hezbollah will commit a breach of the agreement, not only when they fire at us, but even when they try to rearm themselves.

for any such breach, we will react very forcefully. i know there are those who don't believe it will do that. but many didn't believe that we would enter with ground forces into gaza and we did. people didn't believe that states with immense international pressure we would enter into rafa and not only did we enter these places, we attacked them and there were many people who didn't believe he would ever attack in lebanon and we attacked there too. we attacked there very forcefully, in a huge sophistication that took everybody in the world by surprise. so after all of that, maybe we should start believing in our determination, in our commitment to obtaining victory. so why is this the right time for a cease-fire? there are three main reasons.

first, focusing on the iranian threat and there is no need to expand. second, refreshing our forces and rearming our troops. and it is no secret. there have been delays. big delays. in the supply of arms. and this delay is about to stop soon. we will arm ourselves with sophisticated arms that will help us, protect our troops and give us even greater force to complete our missions. and the third reason for a cease-fire now, isolating hamas from the second day of the way, hamas was counting on hezbollah fighting together with it and once hezbollah is eliminated, hamas is left alone. our pressure on hamas will grow stronger and this will help us in the sacred mission of bringing back our hostages.

citizens of israel, in the last year, we have flipped things over. we were attacked on seven fronts and we fought back. we are now changing the face of the middle east and all of this we are doing thanks to our brave soldiers. thanks to your resilience. and thanks to the strong management of this war. i said many times, a good agreement is an agreement that is enforced. and we will enforce it. god willing, we will establish our security, we will help our north flourish, and together we will continue through to victory. >> and that was israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, confirming what nbc news has been reporting that israel is expected to approve a permanent

cease-fire with hezbollah. it is a deal that netanyahu, you heard, endorses. he just said he will take it to his cabinet tonight for approval. now, this cease-fire we need to say applies only to lebanon and could be a concern for families of hostages still in gaza and for the millions of palestinians who live in constant danger. but we have a great panel to talk about the implications of all of this. nbc's keir simmons is reporting from dubai. aaron david miller is a former arab israeli negotiator in the state department and senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. ben rhodes is a former deputy national security adviser and msnbc contributor. keir, so, netanyahu says he has accomplished what he had in mind, that he pushed back hezbollah decades. he says it is the killing of thousands of terrorists, destroying their infrastructure. so, using that as a basis for why he's moving forward, can you tell us about this cease-fire deal and what it might involve? >> yeah, i mean, look, it was

classic benjamin netanyahu, wasn't it, to work, to justify the recommendation that he is making, to try to persuade a skeptical nation. there are many in israel who are not convinced that this cease-fire is the moment when israel has achieved the aims in lebanon that benjamin netanyahu talked about. and is going to look down just to refresh my own memory, we just heard him talking and everybody watching would have heard. i think that moment that you described where he said we pushed hezbollah back decades, he into eds s needs to say tha. there are communities along the northern border of israel who question whether they want to move back because they are questioning whether hezbollah has been defeated and despite the large numbers of leaders of hezbollah who have been killed, where they have been defeated, and whether it is going to be

safe to go back. he does -- he's honest in parts of this, brutally honest. we need to refresh our forces and rearm our troops. we need to focus on the iranian threat. and interesting point to say that if you do -- if you agree to a cease-fire deal in the north, as he's talking about, you're isolating hamas. because hezbollah began its attacks on october 7th, immediately after the october 8th doctor sorry, immediately after the october 7th atrocities. so, all of that was -- benjamin netanyahu wanting to say this is my decision, my recommendation, it is not completely and entirely, of course. it is not for nothing happening right before thanksgiving. the biden administration has been determined to achieve that. they will have been bending arms as well as cajoling to try to

get to this point. and there are real differences in what the prime minister of israel said there, and what hezbollah has been saying, the leader of hezbollah over the weekend saying that this needs to be a complete cease-fire. not one that can be changed again by the israelis. what benjamin netanyahu is saying here is we'll go back and fight again, if hezbollah even digs tunnels or certainly fires missiles. i think he's left a lot of question marks. but it was a determined and assured performance with a message for israel to -- he clearly wants that vote in the cabinet today. >> so, ben, we just heard benjamin netanyahu and keir reiterated the three points that essentially i think netanyahu was arguing are strategic benefits, focusing on the

iranian threat, the refreshing their forces, and rearming the troops, but i want to ask you specifically about the third point he said which is he suggested it would increase pressure on hamas and could help with the release of the hostages. is that a realistic outcome if this indeed goes into place? >> yes, and no, to some extent. you have to remember that since october 7th, the main conflict, the center of gravity for the war in the middle east has been in gaza. and it was only in the late summer, early fall you saw this escalation into lebanon. israel did obviously strike some pretty significant blows against hezbollah, took out a lot of leadership, but was not aiming for the kind of full scale destruction of hezbollah in the same way that they have vowed to do to hamas. and they were taking some losses. and he talked about needing to replenish the military. it was a tough fight and they were continuing to face rocket

fire, the ground operations that they were doing were costing a loss of israeli life. i think on balance, he made the determination that better to kind of put an end to this front for the time being. but making it very clear that he's not going to stop the war in gaza itself. now, frankly, i don't know what else there is for him to dismantle under the mas infrastructure in gaza. the bigger picture has been what happens to the future of gaza and where netanyahu has been out of step with the biden administration is his intent to have a kind of open ended israeli control if not occupation of the gaza strip. a permanent open ended israeli military operation there. you also heard him say i think importantly he referenced continued operations in -- he said judea and samara, which is the west bank, indicating again not even recognizing the

legitimacy of the west bank as an entity under the government of the palestinian authority. what we can take away from this in general is the war is going to continue for the palestinians. the war is going to continue in gaza. military operations are going to continue in the west bank, but there is a pause and hopefully a long-term if not permanent cease-fire on the lebanon front of this conflict. and, you know, clearly he calculates that in his political interest. he's done enough to declare some form of victory there, even though he's not eliminated hezbollah as a fighting force. there are open questions what happens to lebanese politics now and whether there is any kind of civil conflict or what kind of competition continues to grind on in lebanon. so, this is a positive step in terms of if you're the people of lebanon. this is giving you some relief, if you're israel, you're not taking those same losses, and you're not expanding the military resources in the north, but it doesn't change the fundamental dynamic that there is still a war in gaza, there is still an open ended conflict between israel and palestinians

in both gaza and the west bank. >> so as you well know, secretary of state blinken has been in italy for the g-7 meeting of foreign ministers and i want to just read something that he just said. before this statement by benjamin netanyahu, he said we have been focused on trying to see that this cease-fire agreement gets over the line and it is implemented. that's what's going to make the biggest difference. internally at the white house, is this seen as a big victory? do you think it will have any impact generally on impressions of the biden administration foreign policy? >> i think there is three areas where they're trying to de-escalate things if not bring an end to conflict. one was the conflict in gaza, which is the core and bloodiest war raging since october 7th. the other was the conflict between israel and iran where the u.s. tried to limit escalation so that it doesn't become a kind of full blown

regional war. and the third was this conflict in lebanon. and so i do think that secretary blinken, that was his list of the three things he was trying -- the planes he's trying to land before the end of the administration. i think this will be welcomed at the g-7, welcomed internationally, a lot of concern about the destruction in lebanon and what that's going to do and broken the political system in lebanon. that is a credit to their pretty tireless diplomacy to just close this account. but, you know, the end of the day, chris, to be blunt, i think this administration ultimately is going to be judged on the management, overall conflict as it relates to gaza and what is the humanitarian circumstance in gaza, the opinions of the united states around the world for providing unconditional assistance to israel throughout the war in gaza and i don't think it is likely that we're going to see a cease-fire negotiated under this administration as it relates to gaza itself. and so it is like a welcome

development, but it is not the kind of core issue that has been the dominating factor in the region and in the biden administration's foreign policy since october 7th. >> we jufrom president biden at 2:30. so just about one hour from now in the rose garden. they did not name obviously, though, that decision to -- for him to be in the rose. so we'll see what he has to say in the rose garden. i want to go back to something that keir said, which is that there are still a lot of question marks, aaron. what are the question marks that are still out there, do you think, and is there any question at all, however, about whether or not in this cabinet meeting tonight this gets approved? >> i think the prime minister would not have gone out and played the role of master strategist and politician if he wasn't sure this deal was going to get done. this is a transaction, chris. it is not a transformation.

and i think it is really quite extraordinary that we will not know, 60-day period of implementation, which paradoxically will extend beyond the president-elect's inauguration. and it is kuwait conceivable given the vulnerabilities of this agreement that you're going to see violations. whether or not this would crater between now and the end of the year or in the first part of january is unclear. i think the biggest obstacle right now is that a margin for maneuver that they believe they have with assurances that have been provided. this is often, i've seen it in republican and democratic administrations in negotiations, side letters are provided. and there is absolutely no doubt that north of the litani river, from 8 to 18 miles, depending how the river curves from the lebanese border, the so-called blue line, that the idf is going

to continue to operate. they're going to continue to operate to staunch and destroy iranian shipments of additional weaponry to hezbollah. iran wants to pause and so does hezbollah in an effort to rearm. hezbollah is going it remain the dominant lebanese actor and then there is the question whether the lebanese armed forces, which are to be deployed and bulked up to the south, would they realist iccally, if there were hezbollah penetrations, would they realistically confront hezbollah. i doubt it. a lot of the hezbollah fighters are from the villages in the south. you're going to see repenetration of hezbollah over time. so i think we're in for a bumpy period. i still believe, though, that both from the perspective of israel and hezbollah, both are looking for a time-out.

for any number of different reasons. and i think there is a reasonable chance, nobody ever lost money betting against arab israeli peace agreements. i think there is a reasonable chance that this cease-fire and the administration has gone to great lengths to messaging-wise that this is not a temporary cease-fire. this is to be a permanent cease-fire. we'll see once we get through most of the next two months. >> but if it is, as you say, a transaction and not a transformation, what does it mean for the hostages who are still being held and their families watching every development so closely? >> i think that's the core issue here. you have broken the link between gaza and the west -- excuse me, gaza and lennon. the iranians supported it. hezbollah supported it. yes, hamas is more isolated. but the reality is benjamin netanyahu could do this deal because you could get it through his government. and doing a deal for hostages

means two things that in my judgment this prime minister is not going to accept. number one, the asymmetrical exchange for the 51 hostages, prime minister alluded to the fact there are 101 in gaza, the israelis estimate 51 are still alive. in exchange for those 51, houms hamas is going to demand a number of palestinian prisoners convicted or charged with killing israelis. no way that's getting through the government. as you heard the prime minister say, it has been alluded to, he's intent on hamas' destruction, which means the idf is preparing for a long take, both by building -- and eliminating structures in northern gaza and they constructed a buffer zone roughly one kilometer wide that runs most length of the gaza israeli border.

so, i think the prospects for a significant hostage release anytime soon are not great. >> aaron david miller, ben rhodes, keir simmons, thank you, all. up next, the holiday travel rush is here. two major storms, though, set to cause chaos in much of the country. we have got the latest forecast and an update from one of the nation's busiest airports after this. one of the nation's busiest airports after this ♪ vapocooooool ♪ nyquil vapocool. the vaporizing night time, sniffling, sneezing, coughing, best sleep with a cold, medicine. hi. i'm damian clark. i'm here to help you understand how to get the most from medicare. if you're eligible for medicare, it's a good idea to have original medicare. it gives you coverage for doctor office visits and hospital stays. but if you want even more benefits, you can choose a medicare advantage plan like the ones offered at humana. our plans combine original medicare with extra benefits in a single, convenient plan with $0, or low monthly plan

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oh, yeah, we are in it. the busiest travel day of the year, possibly of all time, but obstacles could get in the way of getting you to the thanksgiving table. a major storm is moving in with rain and snow expected to hamper travel plans coast to coast. already today long lines and hundreds of delays at major airports like atlanta. >> atlanta itself is very busy. coming to the airport, it took us half an hour to get through. >> one of the things for the holidays, check the weather. i had no clue i was going to take 12 hours to get to atlanta. >> 12 hours. the week was already off to a rough start, two plane collisions in one day at boston's logan airport. one plane arriving to the gate clipped the wing of another that passengers this just boarded. joining me now, nbc's adrienne broaddus, who is reporting from chicago's o'hare airport. and nbc news meteorologist bill

karins is here. okay, adrienne, how is it looking there and are the airports ready to go? >> reporter: smooth sailing here right now, chris. airport officials across the country say they have taken steps to handle this surge, specifically tsa spokesperson says their staffing is the highest it has ever been. also here in chicago, they increased staffing. but that's not all. they also expanded food and beverage options for those waiting and something special they added a little entertainment. here is more an that from a spokesperson with the chicago department of aviation. >> we have what deejays and violins. i saw the deejay, people come through and dance, the flight might be delayed, but you have entertainment to keep your mind off of that. if chicago sees heavy storm, are you prepared to handle it?

>> we are. we had our trial run last week with a little bit of snowfall. our crews are prepared. >> reporter: and there is light rain and snow expected here in chicago later this week. meanwhile, o'hare alone is expected to see nearly 1.5 million passengers pass through the tsa security checkpoint. but, hey, they say sunday will be the busiest day here, chris. >> oh, my gosh. i just had a lot of delays in my life. i travel a lot. no one provided entertainment during that time. adrienne broaddus, thank you for that. okay, bill. how much could travel plans be disrupted? >> i think it is minor and isolated until we get to thursday. then -- >> until the actual day. >> the actual thanksgiving. how about that? and then clears out for the weekend too. it is all about impacts on thursday. this first -- broad rain to the northeast this is exiting now. the storm we're going to focus on is in the west. we have a 45-minute delay in

boston at loggen from an from t. i think logan will get up to speed shortly. the storm going through the west, tomorrow, if you're driving, interstate 25, colorado springs, denver, maybe 2 to 4 inches of snow. you can deal with it. the airport, some delays. late in the day, we watch some of the rain, maybe a little wet snowflakes heading toward chicago, st. louis and indianapolis, detroit. it is not going to be heavy enough to cancel your plans or maybe even not that many delays. it is not until we get to thursday when the storm heads to the east. the roads isolated problems late in the day. i don't think major. here we go on thursday, the storm strengthens over the top of new york city. unfortunately, right in time for the parade. it looks wet. hopefully won't pour the whole time. periods of some steady rain. north of that, rain and snow mix. and then all snow, the higher elevations. so i-95 during the daylight hours, from d.c. to boston is the worst. after dark, that storm should be exiting and clearing out.

northern new england will take a little while, a little after that. so unfortunately, chris, rain likely, 40s, so it is not like freezing cold, but rain and 40s, still want to bundle up, be warm and try to keep yourself dry. >> doesn't look like the winds are so high it will be a problem for the balloons because come on. >> people want to see the balloons. on tv it will look great. you will see all your favorite balloons and another thing, we did mention as we head through the weekend, the cold, this one is for you too, all our cleveland friends to erie here, also heading off north of syracuse, heavy lake-effect snow for the first time. someone is probably going to end up with two to three feet of snow. >> all those years in ohio, lake-effect snow. >> it's back. >> bill karins, thank you so much. well, coming up, how a tiktok star inspired this year's word of the year. we have got it for you right after this. and unraveling the mysteries of our solar system, what scientists now believe is lurking deep within the two

giant ice planets. here it is, neptune. that's in our next hour. planets. here it is, neptune. that's in our next hour.

today there is soul searching in the transgender activist community after a contentious election campaign that saw trump allies spend $100 million on ads declaring kamala harris is for they/them, while donald trump is for you. "the new york times" reports that some transgender activists

now say it is time to rethink and recalibrate their confrontational ways, now questioning attempts to police language such as excising the words male and female from discussions of pregnancy and abortion. and decrying the misidentification of a transgender person as violence. joining me is the reporter on that story, jeremy peters, with "the new york times" as well as being an msnbc contributor. one activist said as painful as mr. trump's election may be for transgender people, their movement should see the benefit in treating skeptic less like enemies and more like future allies. tell us more. >> there is always tension in any civil rights movement about how far to go, how aggressively to push your case, and the gay rights movement was no different. there were a lot of people who were very hard line and thought provocation and confrontation worked. many others who didn't.

in the transgender rights community, they're having the same discussion and the truth of the matter is according to the folks i interviewed is they're losing, they're losing quite badly. they're losing in the court of public opinion, more and more people are saying that they do not support transgender rights and, in fact, believe the movement has gone too far in its tactics and losing the legislative level. they have now 26 states, i believe, that have enacted laws restricting transgender care in some capacity, so clearly what the movement has been doing to advance its cause is not having the intended affect and one thing, one aspect of that is the attitude, the tone of the debate from a lot of transgender activists, especially online, which can be very antagonistic, condescending, in the words of the activists you just quoted, he told me, look, no one wants to be called stupid, no one wants to be condescended to, you

don't win allies and friends that way. >> is part of the problem, and you're making the good comparison with the fight for gay rights, i would also make the argument that in some ways the fight for women's rights were different in scale. half the population is women. it came to the point when more and more people felt empowered to come out of the closet, that everyone realized, oh, i know people who are gay, where as it was only 20 years ago, 30 years ago there was the aids idemic and this fear, unfounded, but fear, right, the transgender community is less than 1%, it is believed the population, and so did anybody suggest that that is making it harder for people just to understand where they're coming from? >> yeah, not only it makes it harder for people to understand the issue, but it makes it easier for people to brush it off, when they hear activists

saying no, you have to see things my way or the highway. and if you don't know a lot of transgender people, you are less likely to be sympathetic to them in the first place, but being attacked then for something as simple as having questions according to a lot of the activists i spoke to is really setting the -- putting movement in a difficult place. you're exactly right, gay marriage passed in the state legislatures where it passed because gay couples went and met with republican lawmakers and republican lawmakers and even democrats were skeptical -- were able to see they were just like normal couples who actually wanted a very conservative thing, which is this marriage -- this value of marriage. it is harder to do that with transgender people because you're right there is just not all that many of them. but part of the step forward, i think, in my interview is -- i heard is to really put more transgender people out there, so

they can -- so lawmakers and politicians and the public can see who they are. >> so now, in the same way that it affected the other movements we talked about, the transgender issues are coming up to the supreme court, right? the supreme court is set to rule on care for minors. i wonder how the people you're talking to see this big picture in america, how it fits into this conversation. >> well, i'm really glad you brought this case up because it is kind of flown under the radar. it is an example of the court taking on another very contentious social issue. and it is one that many of the advocates i spoke with do not think will go their way. there was this outlier of a case where transgender people were included in nondiscrimination employment law, but it is a big leap to think that that kind of reasoning from justice gorsuch who wrote that majority opinion will apply to care for minors,

which is the issue here. and there ray are a lot of peop talked to who said they don't quite understand why the aclu appealed this case and put it on a track to a hostile supreme court where they don't expect the outcome to be favorable. >> jeremy peters, good to see you. happy thanksgiving to you and your family. great to see you. well, the demure diva is behind dictionary.com's word of the year thanks to a video that has been seen more than 54 million times. >> see how i do my makeup for work, very demure, very mindful. i don't come to work with a green cut rease. i'm very mindful when i'm at work. >> the rest as they say is history. beauty influencer and tiktok star jewels lebron, you just saw, after a trend with that phrase, demure.

demure, defined as shyness or modesty and being reserved saw a 1200% increase in usage in digital web media alone. that's why it was dubbed the word of the year. the video had a profound impact on lebron's life, not just professionally, but personally, helping her raise enough money to pay for her gender transition surgery. and still ahead, we're standing by, we're going to hear from president biden in the rose garden following the news that israel was on the brink of a cease-fire deal with hezbollah in lebanon. we'll have a live report on that next. stay close. more "chris jansing reports" just after this. ay close more "chris jansing reports" just after this.

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connect to the world of wicked this holiday, in theaters now. ♪ you gotta give the people ♪ ♪ you gotta give the people ♪