approved, get your funds as soon as the same day your loan is on deck. >> good day. i'm andrea mitchell in washington. we begin with major breaking news out of the middle east, where we can now report that negotiators in qatar have reached a gaza ceasefire deal and it has been accepted by hamas. the agreement lays out a six week initial cease fire phase that would begin in a day or two. once the israelis go through a cabinet process. after that, there would be a 48 hour wait and then a gradual withdrawal of u.s. of israeli forces. but first, the most important thing is that after 48 hours from whether it's thursday night or friday, the hostages

would begin to be released from gaza as early as this weekend. sunday. israeli forces then would be withdrawing from central gaza from populated areas. there'd be a return of displaced palestinians to north gaza. under the deal, 33 hostages would come out initially, including all women, including soldiers, civilians, children and men over 50. we understand in that group there would be some americans, some americans. we know that there are at least three surviving americans. the we've been in touch with and one of the elderly is keith siegel, aviva siegel's husband, who is 65 years old and would be one of the first americans. he would be the first american to come out, as well as injured americans. there are two others that we know of who would likely be coming out in that first group, and we begin our coverage of this major breaking news with nbc news international correspondent danielle mcgeehan,

live in tel aviv. danielle, so what are we hearing about where the negotiations are? my information is that it's been confirmed by officials here in washington, but that they are by agreement, they're letting the qataris announce it first in doha, who have really been the go betweens with hamas and who have been the principal point for the negotiations, with participation, of course, from egypt. danielle, you're absolutely right, andrea, and we are being briefed on the fact that this is this is it. >> the deal is done and we are now waiting, as you say, for the mediators in doha. the qatari pm will be holding a press conference. and we await now the official announcement. but to think that this has taken 15 months, when most of those involved in these talks thought that it would take perhaps a

matter of days, perhaps weeks, to get all those hostages back. it's taken 15 agonizing months agony for the civilians in gaza who have endured relentless airstrikes, agony for the hostages, who for the most part and presumably have been held in tunnels, and agony for those for the family members of those hostages who, you know, in some cases live just a few miles away from gaza. they go to bed at night, wake up in the morning not knowing if their loved ones are dead or alive. but here we are and we are waiting for the qatari prime minister to lay out the details of this proposal that has been approved and accepted by both sides. what we know, according to the reuters news agency, is that, as has been reported over the past few days, we know that in the first stage of this deal, which would last six weeks, 33 hostages will be released on humanitarian

grounds. it was 34 up until last week. one more hostage was found dead in a tunnel. they are going to be all women, children and civilians over the age of 50. those who are ill and severely injured. what we now know is that in return, in exchange for the release of those hostages, hundreds and hundreds of palestinian detainees will be released. now, it's worth pointing out here that since october 7th, 2023, israel has arrested thousands of people in the west bank, many of them held in what's called administrative detention. they have not been charged, they've not been tried. and israel stands accused of amassing all these palestinians just for this moment, to be able to release them in this deal. so what we understand, according to various reports in israeli media, as well as the reuters news agency, is that for every civilian that will be a civilian hostage who will be released, 30

palestinians will be released in exchange for every female soldier. 50 palestinian prisoners will be released now, according to a senior israeli official. they said to me that they know that there was a price to pay for the hostages, and they know that there was a, quote, special price to pay for the female hostages. so hundreds are expected to be released. and during this period there will be a gradual withdrawal of israeli forces from central gaza, from the more densely populated areas to a buffer zone along the border. they will also withdraw from what's called the netzarim corridor, which runs east to west and effectively splits the gaza strip in half, allowing for the hundreds of thousands of gazans who have been displaced back to northern gaza. andrea. >> danielle, thank you so very much. and joining us now is richard haass, the president emeritus of the council on foreign relations. so nothing is done until it's done. but,

richard, from all of my sources, this is going to be announced by the qataris, as you can understand diplomatically, the israelis and the u.s. have agreed that qatar should announce it first. they were the host for the talks. they were the go between with hamas. these indirect talks that have been going on, you know, for so many months. i can report that william burns, the cia director, has been in washington this week, but that he made 19 trips on this subject to the region, as well as meetings that were held elsewhere in europe and elsewhere. but 19 trips just since october 7th, you know, when the hostages were taken, that we know that secretary of state blinken made 13 trips. and all of these trips involve multiple countries, 13 missions with secretary blinken. i was on many of them, where he would go to 7 or 8 countries on one of

those trips all around the region, trying to put things together and also trying to work on what would happen after this deal, what would happen to try to rebuild gaza, to try to create a palestinian entity, to lead gaza, to try to end an israeli occupation, which would be ended for all intents and purposes, except for that border area, the border buffer and the border area near the philadelphia corridor near egypt and rafah. richard, this is an enormous deal. there's been an enormous amount of work done on it, and a big factor acknowledged by secretary blinken. to me, just just this week was the terrific work in the last couple of days of steve witkoff, the new trump middle east negotiator, the envoy who is going to be coming in and he went to doha. and the fact that starting on december 2nd, donald trump said on truth social and then repeated it a week ago tuesday at his news conference, that marathon news conference,

that to hamas, that there would be hell to pay if in the middle east, if they didn't do this deal before he is sworn in. so they might just make that deadline. if these hostages start coming out on sunday over the over the weekend. >> richard, andrew, let me let me say three things. >> first, obviously this is welcome. the hostages have just been it's been a nightmare for them, for their families, for the entire country of israel, for people in this country who are focused on it. >> so a sigh of relief that hopefully this is the beginning of the end of that or a deal. secondly, it's interesting that it happened now. >> why now? as opposed to any time over the last 15 months? >> and i think there's multiple things at work here. >> one is you mentioned the trump administration. the pressure they were putting on that clearly had its effect mostly in israel. i would think between mr. witkoff, there will be the trump envoy, but the

israeli government clearly wanted to get off on a good foot with donald trump. donald trump wanted this somewhat off the off the agenda. i think what mattered more on the hamas side was not the threats. there's really nothing saying there'll be hell to pay. well, the gazans have already been to hell and back, or actually, they're still there. >> the israelis have been bouncing the rubble. no, i think there it has to do much more with iran's weakness and above all, hezbollah's weakness. >> when hezbollah a few months ago signaled that it would sign a ceasefire with israel and no longer link it to this, i think that left hamas much more, much more exposed. >> the fall of bashar al assad in syria, the entire region has moved against iran, against hamas. i think that had a lot to do with it. and then thirdly, yes, this is significant, and i don't want to in any way belittle it. but coming back to a phrase i use in terms of diplomacy, this might be the end of the beginning in the sense that there's a lot to come. a significant as this is as

difficult as it is, as much time as it took from bill burns and tony blinken. and again, without diminishing all the effort, we still have other phases of this cease fire to come. we've got the larger question of governance and security in gaza. and then you've got the incomparably larger question of israel's relationship with the with the palestinians in the west bank, where you've got roughly 3 million palestinians there. but this is a day, hopefully, if it all holds, and i think it's likely to it's a day to feel relief, maybe even some celebration, but also with the with a sober awareness, that of the difficult, extraordinarily difficult decisions and challenges to come. >> and we should also point out on this timeline, the timeline, as explained to me by people involved in the talks from all three sides, not the hamas side, obviously, is that once the deal is announced, once qatar is satisfied that all the branches

of hamas have accepted it, which we're told has happened today, that that means that israel will then trigger its security council cabinet meeting, then its full cabinet meeting. then there is what may be a very quick referral to the us, to the israeli supreme court, which has to give some number of hours for a potential appeal that i think can be accelerated. then the deal would go into effect. and so it could take a day or so to get all of the israeli pieces in place, and then the deal goes into effect. once that happens, there is a 48 hour window to see if it holds and to make all the arrangements to actually physically move the hostages out of where they are in gaza. and then the beginning of the hostages release. so and that would happen in phases. this is all in phase one of the six week deal. the first phase is six

weeks, and that the hostages would be released in priority of those who are wounded. the women, first of all, and those who are wounded, the elderly, children. and then, you know, at the end of that process would come the remains that people are grieving to, to have and including a number of american families who are very well aware that their hostages have not survived this ordeal. richard. >> andrew, what's also interesting is how both hamas and israel compromise to some extent, right? israel basically said its goal was to eliminate hamas. hamas has not been eliminated. they've accepted a cease fire. hamas has compromised, too. israel is not 100% out of gaza. this is not a permanent end quote unquote, to the occupation. so again, i think it shows that both sides have moved, and you put your finger on what i think is going to be very interesting. the internal debate in israel, as

you know better than anybody, several members of the current governing coalition oppose this deal. the far right finance minister, the security minister. so the question is, what do israeli politics look like in 2 or 3 days? people not in the governing coalition said they'll support the government on this issue. but what then? what is bibi netanyahu have? and 2 or 3 days? is this simply something that he works through, or is this actually something of a challenge to his his government? and i think that will be a really interesting space to watch, because that will obviously have implications for domestic and international policy, foreign policy for israel going forward. >> and in fact, richard, i'm so glad you mentioned the israeli politics. we know that those two ministers are fiercely opposed to this right now. netanyahu and the prime minister's office and those closest to him, ron dermer, certainly his closest advisor, and those who were talking to him here in new york and in washington, israeli

officials believe that his coalition will hold together, that there will not be a vote of no confidence in the knesset. so they think that they do have. and he was working yesterday with the security cabinet, and then we'll go to the full cabinet. and there's a lot of confidence about that. i want to add one more piece to this, which is not widely known. they did announce two weeks ago, i believe that he had surgery, that prime minister, i was told it was more serious than people have publicly acknowledged, officially acknowledged. it will be very interesting to see him on television. as with all leaders, we're always evaluating their health and vigor. and this is a prime minister who has been extraordinary in all of his capacities. he was previously the finance minister. he was the un ambassador. he is defined israel certainly since the days of ariel sharon. he has been the driving force behind israeli politics. and it will remain to be seen because there were very large protests just in the last

few days, just over the last weekend against his coalition government in favor of ending the war in gaza and getting the hostages home. we should also point out, richard, just while we await possible announcement from the qatari prime minister, that if he has, the diplomat says, you would have said the table was set in large part by actions that israel took with us support when they pushed back against iran successfully and iran did not. then, you know, further retaliate. but what they did and faced a lot of criticism for was to eliminate the leader, the political leader of hamas last summer in tehran. while he was there, haniyeh was assassinated by one of those israeli targeted assassinations that they don't acknowledge and acknowledged publicly. and there was a lot of criticism because it did, according to u.s. officials at the time, set back

a very close negotiation that was leading to a possible deal. they were dealing with haniyeh, and then after that, they had to start dealing with sinwar in gaza until he was taken out, something that the israelis did almost by accident. and then now they've had to deal with his surviving brother, mohammed sinwar, who has been a very tough negotiator also. but the also the other piece of it that i think you could speak to is the lebanon ceasefire and the fact that they they took out the leader of hezbollah and also took so many of those missiles out of lebanon and missiles that were against un resolutions placed in a so-called no, you know, a free zone that was being guarded by un troops. and there were plenty of weaponry there and fighters. and once lebanon was removed as a direct threat to israel, then you also saw the other domino, which is the fall

of the assad regime. so to have iran so weakened by losing its proxies, other than the houthis still in yemen, and that can strike israel with their missiles, but losing their, you know, front door, really the lebanese and syrian based proxies that made it possible to see, you know, hamas was looking at this also and seeing that they were losing strength and that a new president was going to be sworn in on next monday, on january 20th. >> richard j&j, it's a reminder that the negotiating table never takes place in isolation from the world, in this case from the battlefield and the devastation that was done to hezbollah more than anything else, i think, has transformed the region. it led to the end of the regime in syria. it left iran much more vulnerable because hezbollah's threat of launching missiles against israel was iran's

greatest deterrent threat. and obviously it left hamas kind of on its own. and hamas is no match for israel on its own. so all these things have come together, and suddenly it gave the qataris, the americans and others much more to work with because it gave israel more confidence and changed bibi netanyahu's political realities. his numbers went went way up, and it obviously dramatically weakened hamas and iran's ability to resist. so all of this came together, and it wasn't that us diplomacy suddenly got more able. it's been able all along in trying to bring this about. these are people like bill burns or are professionals, tony blinken and others. what changed was the context in which they were operating. and it gave a it gave them simply much more to work with. and i think what we're about to hear from the qataris is the first fruit of that. and again, going forward, we hope it's not the only fruit. we want

to see more progress between israel and hamas and gaza. and obviously, we'd like to see a pivot to the larger issue of israeli relations with palestinians. and i also think there's opportunities for the new trump administration to press iran and to maybe get some progress or significant progress on iran's nuclear program, or conceivably to diminish or eliminate its support for these various proxies like hamas. so i actually think the middle east is in a as interesting a moment as creative a moment. you know, these are words like interesting, creative and opportunity are not words we usually use in the same paragraph as the middle east. but i actually think this is a this is a rare moment in contemporary history. and it's one to be seized. >> and you've gone through so many of these yourself, i'm going to let you go. but before i let you go, i just want to share because you were talking about the future administration.

right now, marco rubio is having his confirmation hearing. he is clearly qualified 14 years a member. you know, he was the vice chair of the intelligence committee, working in a bipartisan way. and in this, he was asked about today's possible breakthrough. and we think this is legitimately a breakthrough. he said, well, i'm not sworn in yet, but he said he gave a lot of credit to steve witkoff. he said he's been a critical component of it. he's been involved in it from day one, certainly not from day one. in the long perspective of bill burns. and, you know, tony blinken and secretary blinken, but certainly has been involved in it from my perspective. and i started reporting this after the day after the december 2nd announcement on truth social, when donald trump made that, you know, announcement that the people in the region. and you're right, it's the israelis. netanyahu was clearly listening to witkoff and wanting to please

the incoming administration. richard, thank you so much for your perspective. we really appreciate. thanks, andrew. you're welcome. and joining me now is a key player who knows this so very well from decades of negotiating the middle east, as did richard haass, ambassador dennis ross, former special assistant to president obama. he's a counselor, and william davidson distinguished fellow at the washington institute. he's been a middle east negotiator in republican and democratic administrations. dennis, we are told that qatar is going to announce this deal. it is as we was described, and it's based in large part on what president biden proposed last may and what was almost agreed to in july when the hamas negotiator was assassinated and it, you know, fell apart since then and we've lost a lot of hostages in the intervening time as well. one just last week. so 33, not 34 are going to be released and it will be triggered once there is an announcement and the israeli cabinet approves it and the

security cabinet first, and then there is going to be a 48 day, a 48 hour period before the hostages actually start coming out. but your your takeaway from all of this and how it potentially it's the middle east. we all know the setbacks but potentially it could reshape the region. >> well i think we need to put it in a context. and i would say there's two elements to it. one is israeli military achievements, obviously within gaza, which have come at a very high price. but israeli military achievements have changed the balance of power in the region. hamas is no longer a military, though it has the ability to carry out an insurgency. hezbollah has been decapitated and decimated, and the proof of how weak it is you have a president now, and you have a prime minister, nawaf salam, who was elected as the prime minister, was probably the last person that hezbollah would have wanted to see. as the prime

minister. lebanon is reasserting itself and its sovereignty. iran has been profoundly weakened by what the israelis have done in terms of taking out its strategic air and missile defense, not to mention its internal economic difficulties. a country that produces natural gas and oil and can't provide electricity for itself. assad the assad regime is gone. >> so it means it's very hard for iran now to try to rebuild hezbollah. so hamas was all alone and understood it was all alone on the one hand. and the other dimension here is i think there is a trump effect. i don't think that prime minister netanyahu was prepared to say no to him because, as you said quite correctly, this deal is not materially different from what was available at the end of may. it's true that hamas didn't respond for five weeks to that. but when it did, the prime minister offered some clarifications. then hamas used those clarifications, especially as it related to the philadelphia corridor as a

reason not to say yes. so we're looking at an agreement now that is emerging, partly because i think hamas feels alone, partly because i think that qatar and egypt in particular want to show incoming president trump that they can get things done so that they get on his right side. and prime minister netanyahu finds it very difficult to say no to him. and i heard you talking with richard about steve witkoff. it's pretty clear that if one reads the israeli press that he went from doha in qatar to jerusalem to see prime minister netanyahu on saturday night, and from all reports was very clear that he needed to agree to this deal. so we're seeing something emerge that reflects the leverage of the incoming president. we're also seeing a change in the regional balance of power. all that creates the possibility, i

think, to take advantage of the leverage of the new administration to do a normalization deal that the saudis were not going to do a normalization deal unless israel was out of gaza. now they're not out of gaza. this deal isn't necessarily one that guarantees israel will be out of gaza. but i do think one of the things that qatar was saying to hamas was, you're insisting on ending the war and israel getting out once you have this pause, pretty hard to believe that it would trump in as president that israel is going to resume the fighting. now, of course, if hamas goes ahead and doesn't fulfill its part of the deal, that will happen. but if they do fulfill their part of the deal, it's pretty hard to see this resuming the war resuming, and then that will open the way towards doing the normalization deal between saudi arabia and israel. so we're we're looking at a region that typically we assume everything goes wrong. and it may yet i have plenty of experience being on the brink of

all sorts of breakthroughs when the middle east, as it is, rears its head. but right now, i would say this is as promising a moment as we've seen in a very long time. >> with all of those caveats, which we both know from decades of covering this region. it is, i want to also say the devastation in gaza has been so profound. and part of this deal, which the us insisted on, as well as the arab leaders who were participating, there has to be a surge of humanitarian aid up front on this deal, and this aid has to get in and not in a trickle the way it's been getting in. and israel has been one of the barriers to that, frankly, aid in medicine, in food, fuel, water, then they're going to be talking about who rebuilds gaza. and that awaits some form of palestinian governance. and we know that the palestinian authority has been

incredibly weak and elderly and not permitting younger, vigorous. very well, you know, educated palestinians who are ready to take over. there's a diaspora of palestinians in the west bank and elsewhere ready and eager. but there has been a problem of leadership there as well that is not yet resolved. dennis, dennis, go ahead. >> i was just going to say, look, in addition to everything you were saying, which is that exactly right. the palestinian authority has to reform if they're going to be able to gradually go back into gaza and replace what would be an interim administration. one of the key things that's also going to be provided in this humanitarian assistance are caravans. so that you can you can begin to house people who have lost housing. i think something we're talking about, a significant number of caravans going in quickly in addition to more tents. so that

will deal with the inability just to have living space right now in gaza. i think the critical element of rebuilding gaza depends upon having a mechanism on the ground that guarantees two things. one, there can't be smuggling, so hamas can't rebuild itself, and two, that there is the kind of monitoring mechanism for all of the all of the materials that are coming in, those materials that are coming in can't be diverted. so there has to be a kind of monitoring mechanism for that as well. >> yeah, that's been one of the complaints, a legitimate complaint from the israelis that not only is there looting by desperate people trying to feed their children, but more urgently by hamas fighters and others and hamas, you know, leaders there who grabbed the stuff before, you know, un deliveries or other deliveries before it can actually get to the people who need it and, you

know, then sell it, then they sell it. >> so that's how they've actually been looking to sustain themselves financially. so here again, i mean, this is partly look, the israelis haven't done as much as they could have done, but the international community has also not stepped up and said, okay, we will help ensure that there's secure delivery. now with the ceasefire, you'll put people on the ground who actually can do that. that's an important part of being able to ensure there isn't a vacuum of power, and hamas can't reconstitute itself. >> and one of the major issues has been what the saudis, what the galleries, what the uae is going to do, the saudis and the us and israel were very close to an agreement back before this october 7th invasion. a month before that, i was in new york at the un meetings. you were probably as well, and talking to all sides, and they were talking about coming up with a

normalization agreement for israel, which they were going to put into before the senate as soon as february. this was a biden administration commitment to the saudis and to israel. i talked to the leaders themselves and to some of their closest aides, and then hamas, as a senior u.s. official later said to us this year, jumped the gun, surprising both iran and hezbollah by doing it was there was a plan, clearly a plan that israel had not seen, that israeli intelligence and the military had ignored. and that was right under their noses. and it was a real, you know, a huge setback to the military reputation of israel, which has now been, you know, largely rebuilt and enhanced. but at that point, they were really on the verge of something significant, something historic, that donald trump started with the abraham accords in his administration. and this would have been the completing part of

it. and the biden administration was so eager to do it. the biden white house, the president himself. that was all changed by october 7th. and what happened after that? israel put a siege on until secretary blinken went there. on that first visit in october and spent nine hours trying to talk them into opening the rafah gate and letting some trucks in because they were not letting any food, water. they were basically trying to starve the people out into putting down their guns. and that was not going to happen. you know, the people who were suffering were the civilians, the non hamas. and he finally got them to open that rafah opening from egypt and started to get a trickle of trucks in. and they finally got some in from jordan. and this has been, you know, a terrible process and what it has led to and what the use of bunker buster, 200 0 pound american made bombs very early in, you know, against a refugee camp the end of october has led to the

saudis increasing the price for normalization. they now want a pathway to some sort of not a state necessarily, but a pathway towards that as the price for recognizing israel because of all the devastation in gaza and how that has reverberated throughout the world, particularly in the arab world and the arab street, we have an interesting reality where literally are two different universes in israel. >> nobody sees the devastation in gaza. don't. it's not shown. >> that's not censorship. it's not censorship. it't the media won't show it because the public is consumed by its own sense of trauma. but you have an equal. you have the equivalent on the arab side where they don't show anything about what happened on october 7th. and yet they show only the devastation

in gaza. so you have these two parallel universes where israelis are only consumed and aware of their own pain. and throughout the region, arabs are completely preoccupied with what has happened to palestinians in gaza. and it's a devastation. there's no other no other way to describe it. so these two parallel universes have contributed, at least on the saudi side, to a recognition of how sour the atmosphere is right now throughout the region and within saudi arabia towards israel. so from the saudi perspective, you have to end the war, and the israelis have to be out of gaza. and the process of rehabilitation and reconstruction must be underway before they will be serious again about the issue of normalization. you're also right. they want to be able to show on the palestinian issue that they produce something for the palestinians that no one else has produced up until now. that doesn't mean you have a state instantly, because if you had an instant palestinian state, it would be a failed state. and nobody wants that. and you have to have a certain

assurance that if you're going to have a palestinian state, it's not going to be led by hamas or other extremists. so there when secretary of state blinken talks about conditions based, what he's referring to is there's a series of benchmarks that before you could have a palestinian state, you're going to have to address. i don't think the saudis have any problem with that. but what they want to see is there's a path that, unlike the previous ones, will actually end up producing the result, and they want to be in a position where they can say, if our readiness to normalize is what produced that, and that will be part of their justification for doing it. >> and we should also point out that there has been a real rise in tension in the west bank, an expansion of settlements and a very hard line positions taken by these two members of the cabinet and by others. and a very hard line about the possible israeli occupation and extension of settlements by the

trump named ambassador potential ambassador mike huckabee, who was talking about reoccupying all of the west bank. but i want to read something from president trump that he just posted on truth social. and as you might expect, because he began to do this last tuesday at the news conference when he brought steve witkoff to the microphone, this epic cease fire agreement could have only happened as a result of our historic victory in november, as it signaled to the entire world my administration would seek peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all americans and our allies. i am thrilled american and israeli hostages will be returning home to be reunited with their families and loved ones. with this deal in place, my national security team, through the efforts of special envoy to the middle east steve witkoff, will continue to work closely with israel and our allies to make sure gaza never again becomes a terrorist safe haven. we will continue promoting peace through strength throughout the region as we build upon the momentum of this cease fire to further expand the historic abraham

accords. so there's more to it. but that is his statement. just to put this in context, this is a 100 page document. we understand. and as a 100 page document, it is enormously complex. this is not just signing a one page deal done, one and done. and we believe you were saying that only half, perhaps half as many of the hostages have actually survived. i mean, the numbers are not specific, but they have a pretty good idea now. and so we have had terrible losses, and the palestinians have lost 46,000 people. >> right. look, this is a that's why i say you have two publics who are suffering from trauma. and when you're suffering from trauma, you're aware of your own pain, your capacity to recognize anybody else's is profoundly limited. so that's that's the

environment between israelis and palestinians. and by the way, when these when these hostages begin returning back to israel and they tell the truly hellish conditions under which they were, they were dealt with the women who have clearly been sexually abused, the violence, the torture, both the physical and the sort of psychic torture the stories they're going to tell, they're not going to lessen the sense of trauma. but there will also be some pretty strong questions being posed about why this wasn't achieved sooner, given the given the pain that they just the unbelievable conditions they've had to endure. these are people who are unlikely to ever fully recover from what they've been through. and there's been a historic israeli compact between the government and the people. we'll do whatever it takes to get you back. and that's what we're seeing. there's a you were referring to ministers ben-gvir

and smotrich about what they're doing in the west bank, but they're against the deal. and ben-gvir is threatening that. you know, he'll try to he will leave the government. he's trying to persuade smotrich to do the same. you know, this is you've had pressure from them that has prevented a deal up until now, and that all this is going to play out in the coming days. this is, as you said correctly, this is a very intricate document that has been negotiated. basically since at least last february. so we're is the phrasing is clear. you know, you're going to wait 48 hours before anyone's release. it's going to be three who will be released initially, seven within the first week, and then the remainder who will be released. it's the number 33, but that will include live as well as dead. one of the big issues was

israel, for completely understandable reasons, trying to maximize the number of live hostages who were being released, and hamas trying to minimize that as a way of retaining their leverage. >> no, exactly. and i did talk last week with ruby khan, whose son is one of the hostages, and he and other parents want the remains of their children back, and they want a proper burial and proper prayers. and they were very unhappy. he was in doha last week meeting with all of the players, the qataris with brett mcgurk, the us negotiator, and was very upset that it would be the others, principally some israelis first, rather than that they would all be released at the same time. thank you so much. if you'll stand by, dennis, joining us now is aaron david miller, who worked with you for so long on all of this,

former arab-israeli negotiator at the state department, now senior fellow at the carnegie endowment f peace. aaron, we've all been watching this in real time. we do expect that president biden will speak, that the us and israel were, by agreement, letting qatar announce this first. as you can see, there's there are people are flooding the streets in tel aviv. there have been protests, large protests in recent days saying that netanyahu was not putting a high enough priority on getting the hostages out and to ending the war. what is your your perspective? i mean, you know, andre, governing is about choosing. >> it's about deciding what's important and what isn't. government is also about turning the m in me upside down. >> so it's a w. >> and we and i think with respect to the hostages, it's

quite clear to me any, any, any relatively objective observer would, would basically say that current israeli government, particularly the prime minister who's world oriented around basically maintenance in power, on trial, on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in a jerusalem district court. now, four years in running, losing power would mean either the possibility of a conviction or alternatively, a plea deal that would mean the end of his political career. so maintaining the war in gaza, quote unquote, total victory over hamas, resisting any serious effort to do postwar planning, which is the ultimate antidote to defeating hamas in gaza, that was that was not the priority of the current israeli government, and certainly not the priority of the current israeli prime

minister, i suppose. and there are all sorts of counterfactuals and there's no rewind buttons on history. andrea, but the deal probably could have been done months ago. the basic framework is the same. yes. and dennis is absolutely correct in pointing out that israeli escalation, dominance and military power has weakened, hollowed out hezbollah and weakened hamas. there's no cavalry coming. even the iranians, i suspect, on their back feet, understand that their proxies, hamas, hezbollah, even the houthis remain a persistent problem, no longer provide a strategic threat nor a strategic asset. so it's a it's a human tragedy. i mean, it's a day of celebration for the 33, 34 hostages that will return, but it's going to be a day of mourning, too, because among those 33 hostages, they're not all going to be living. and the

50 that remain, or so the idf soldiers, both living and dead, that will come about only after a successful implementation of phase one. and there are so many bumps and potential hurdles and obstacles to get from phase one to phase two. so yes, it's a day of celebration, but it's also a day to understand the trauma the hostages and their families have endured and the pain of 2.3 million palestinians in gaza facing a humanitarian catastrophe, extraordinarily brutal and devastating. and the scarring. i'm afraid of an entire generation. and i truly hope both on the israelis who have suffered tremendous trauma in the wake of october 7th, and the palestinians that israelis and palestinians at some point can say to one another injury, you know, it it it's not that we

don't understand one another. this is my fear. it's that we understand one another only too well. and rebuilding from this is going to take time and leadership. and leadership. leadership in israel, leadership among the palestinians and leadership in washington. again, that capacity to turn the w, the m and m upside down. so it's a w. >> and we when you talk about leadership in all three places, there are a lot of unanswered questions. we do have a statement that keir simmons, my colleague, received from hamas spokesman bassem naim, saying, we are very happy to reach a deal today to stop the aggression against our people. but unfortunately we were able to reach the same deal last may. but both parties have lost thousands of innocent civilians because of netanyahu and his government political games. so as you can see, there's going to be a lot of rhetoric both ways.

joining me now is msnbc's ayman mohyeldin. ayman, what are you hearing from the qataris? >> good afternoon, andrea. >> we're going to hear from them momentarily from the prime minister. >> what you and others have been discussing the official announcement of this cease fire. we're unlikely to get the specific announcements of the details, as you mentioned. this is a 100 page or so document. i've had a chance to see some of the terms of those documents. what you can expect to hear from the qatari prime minister when he makes that official announcement are the contours of the agreement, the implementation mechanism, when that's going to happen in terms of when it is going to start, when they can expect to start to see the rollout of the terms of the agreement. >> and perhaps more importantly, you're going to hear what was, as i understood from speaking to the negotiators and those involved, one of the key sticking points that held this up even in the final hours, and that is who is going to provide the guarantees that both sides

are committed to this agreement. and as you and others have been discussing, this is an agreement between israel and hamas. but no doubt it is actually a broader agreement that involves the qatari government, the egyptian government, as well as the united states, which is going through a transition period. so you can imagine that the players on the ground, and certainly those who want to make sure the other side is not going to violate the terms of the agreement, want to make sure that at any given moment there are the parties, the countries that are going to guarantee the implementation of it. so i think you're going to hear that statement as well as the contours of this agreement, and when it will begin from the qatari prime minister, when he is expected to make the official announcement that the cease fire has been reached in the coming minutes or so. >> and i was told that once that announcement is made, the israelis will move very quickly through that process, which has been, you know, i was told, greased like lightning to go through the security cabinet and

the full cabinet, despite the opposition of two very powerful coalition partners that netanyahu is now committed to. that and certainly the truth social post and the deliberate inclus steve witkoff welcoming him into not the talks at the table, but going back and forth and being briefed on every stage and being in doha this week, that that was a very big component. as secretary of state, blinken told me in our interview on monday morning that that was terrifically helpful in moving this process along because everyone did want biden for obvious reasons, because this is going to be a very long process. phase one alone is six weeks, and then you have to get to phase two, and then the full implementation is going to be a i mean, the feeling was always and having traveled with secretary blinken on so many of these trips to the region this year and last year, is that once you could get through the six week phase, phase one, that it would become a fait accompli and

it would be easier to get to phase two. but i've talked to all the negotiators, you know, involved in this, and no one is taking anything for granted. ayman. stand by. i want to bring in new york times chief white house correspondent peter baker, who's also spent time many years, but also was based in israel and in the middle east as well. it's part of his coverage of many presidents. peter, this we could be on the verge of something significant. it's a tinderbox, and one doesn't know how they're going to even get through the first 48 hours, which have to be peaceful before the hostages would start being released. but this is as good as it has gotten since october 7th. you know, more than a year ago. >> absolutely. >> yeah. no question about it. for president biden, who has been, you know, struggling so hard to bring an end to this war in gaza, the people around him, including his national security team led by brett mcgurk.

>> this is obviously a moment of great relief. >> you're right to say that it's fragile, though, and everybody understands that anything can fall apart at any given time. it still has, as you say, to go through the security cabinet. >> we'll see if that happens as smoothly as people are predicting. and this is the region where the unexpected is to be expected. but at the moment, it's a moment, obviously, of great happiness at the white house. the president has just five days left in office. this is the last big thing on his to do list. he wanted to be able to leave office. having resolved this issue. and obviously you're going to now have some politics involved in which president elect biden and trump will now, of course, claim credit because of the collaboration of his team with biden's team. but it is a rare moment where the two teams did seem to work together, and that that collaboration made a difference. >> and peter, i know you have to go and do your own reporting, but. the hope is that these hostages are going to come out before joe biden leaves office.

i mean, i covered 40 years, 40 plus years ago with the iran hostage deal in 77,980, and it was 1201 that iran released the americans who the difference, the largest difference being they were all alive, which is tragically not the case this time. but in that case, there's plenty of historic evidence that the reagan administration, the incoming team, was working against the hostage deal. we're trying to delay it until they took office, and that iran then did that. you know, which, of course, was to deny jimmy carter the ability to have welcomed them home. there is no evidence of that at this time. i think all the evidence, in fact, is to the contrary, as you point out, that there was a real effort, despite all their differences for donald trump and this white house, to work seamlessly

because it's the trump administration that's going to have to implement it. >> absolutely. >> and it's a striking change, is a striking difference. >> in 44 years ago, no question about it, to see these two teams be able to actually put aside the very, very deep and ideological and partizan and personal differences between them in order to achieve an outcome that's good, obviously, for the united states as well as partners in the region. that's that's a remarkable way to end one presidency and begin another. we haven't seen anything quite like that in a while. it doesn't mean they'll be able to do that on any other issue. it's obviously in both presidents interest to get this done by monday, inauguration day. it's interesting. obviously, president biden would like to finish his term on a high note. after all of this tragedy, and suffering in the middle east is obviously also in president elect trump's interest. to have this off the table, in order not to have this be such a consuming issue that would challenge him in his early days, when he has a lot of other priorities he'd like to focus on. so those interests obviously brought these two teams

together. and it's a, you know, assuming it sticks. it has had, you know, a remarkable outcome. >> thank you so much, peter baker. and joining us now is nbc news senior white house correspondent gabe gutierrez. gabe, we expect we will be hearing from president biden. but from everything i've been told, it will not be until after carter officially announces it. >> yeah, that's right andrea. but look, as you've been discussing, we're already hearing from president elect trump and a social media post just within the past few minutes. he's already had two so far. he in this latest one, he calls this an epic cease fire agreement and essentially takes credit for it, takes credit for his administration, and gives kudos to steve witkoff, his incoming middle east envoy. envoy who, as you've been discussing, has been involved in this process. now, look, andrea, as your discussion with peter, you know, points out, there has been a lot of cooperation from the incoming administration and current national security adviser, jake sullivan. just

yesterday, he and mike wallace spoke at an event where they discussed the partnership between steve witkoff and brett mcgurk from the current administration. speaking about these hostage negotiations. but it appears that president elect trump no real surprise here. he is taking distinct credit for this. he's saying that before he even gets into the white house, this is what we can expect. and this comes andrea. of course, after many times on the campaign over the last several weeks, the president elect saying that all hell would break loose if these hostages were not released before he took office. now, trump, right now we're here in west palm beach. he is, as we understand it, at his golf course. he left mar-a-lago a little earlier this morning. we don't yet know. he has not spoken on camera yet, but a person familiar with the process says that the inclusion of the word we in his initial his initial post on social media that we have reached a cease fire deal. that word we was very

intentional and in the view of the transition team, that steve witkoff was extremely involved in this process. so the president elect referring to this is peace through strength, and it's certainly something we can expect as this administration unfolds. as he takes office next week, he will continue to take credit for this hostage, this cease fire deal, even days before he took office. >> andrea, cabe, thank you so very much. i want to go back to ayman mohyeldin. ayman, it's impossible to even imagine how these two, these two worlds that we've talked about, the separate realities in israel and in gaza, the devastation in gaza, the heartbreak as well in israel and the political divisions in israel, how this heals and how it becomes anything close to a cohesive agreement that can survive with israel in a buffer zone or two buffer zones, and

but withdrawing from central populated areas and hamas turning over hostages to the red cross or other intermediaries and letting them come out, this is going to be very difficult to implement. >> it is going to be very difficult to implement. and, you know, one of the issues and we've certainly been analyzing the question as to why now, why was it possible to get to this agreement now, when this was the same agreement that was on the table several months ago, as you mentioned, based on kerr's reporting, the statement from hamas put the blame on the netanyahu government. yesterday, we heard from the national security minister, itamar ben-gvir, saying that he opposed this deal and that he had previously in past agreements when they had been presented to the israeli government, blocked these deals. but to go back to the point that, you know, dennis ross was making about the two separate worlds that we're witnessing right now in the region, it is clear that when you track and look at hamas statements and hamas comments

and the way the arab world has been covering this, this is not for them. the defeat that some in israel are projecting it to be. there's no doubt that the palestinians have paid a tremendous price. i mean, as we all know, what has been described as a genocide by various organizations. but at the end of the day, the two goals that were set out by the israeli government, one was to destroy hamas and two to secure the hostages. yesterday, you had the secretary of state, antony blinken, say hamas has managed to recruit more militants as a result of this war, since have been destroyed because of this war. and that must be a very troubling sign for the israelis. obviously, this we're not talking about this in the short term, but we're talking about the ability of the organization to generate new leadership, to generate new structure, to generate new control. and that is going to be a major cause of concern for the israelis and certainly for the americans. but at the same time, the inability of the israelis to locate all of these hostages and be able to

secure them, they had tremendous success in securing some throughout the course of military operations. they also killed israeli hostages as well. and even at one point when they believed that yahya sinwar, the leader of hamas, was somehow bunkered in with the hostages around him, that did not turn out to be the case when he was ultimately killed alone, as you also mentioned, incidentally, during a raid in southern gaza. so by any measure, hamas has come out of this war saying all of this could have been prevented. when you go back to november of 20, 2023, when hamas said, we will release the first 100 hostages in that brokered ceasefire, that temporary ceasefire that allowed for the largest amount of hostages to be released. but the road ahead is going to be critical. and going back to your point about the implementation, whether or not there are going to be guarantors that can securely implement this deal, that is going to be very difficult. i think a lot of skepticism remains as to whether or not after the first phase, which is the release of 33 hostages, as well as the withdrawal of israeli troops to

the periphery of urban areas and population centers in gaza, whether or not israel and the palestinians, and certainly hamas, will abide by the next phase. and keep in mind, there are no international observers on the ground. you do have underway. you do have the international committee of the red cross, but you're going to need a much more robust presence and some kind of governance structure that can independently verify that certain things are being met along the way. that allows for the surge of humanitarian aid, the release of the hostages, the ability for israel to withdraw from the population center. so i think there is still a lot of uncertainty in the weeks and months ahead, andrea, and the region is being transformed in another very negative way by anger in the region, anger in the world, anger on campuses, the rise of anti-semitism over the tragedy of what's happening in gaza and a fading

acknowledgment of the suffering in israel on that side because it's been so graphically visible to the arab world in particular. >> and you've heard it in the united nations lopsided votes. when i was in amman a couple of months into the gaza war, it was something that i'd never seen before because in amman, the jordan was one of the closest, longest allies. but american brands, mcdonald's, starbucks, other brands, stores closing down because of the anger at america for providing the weapons. so, i mean, we have to, you know, it's a balance of tragedy on both sides in our closing minute. ayman. but this this is not going to heal very easily. but this is the first step, and i think we should at least hold our breath as the world is and acknowledge that you had two rival american

presidents, president elect and a president working together through diplomats from around the world to try to put together a very complicated deal that may, we hope, bring home israeli hostages, american hostages, those alive and dead, and also bring food and help and reconstruction to the suffering people of gaza and some political healing, a future that american diplomats have been talking about endlessly in all of these missions. that does it for this edition of andrea mitchell reports, chris jansing reports picks up all of the breaking news coverage right now. >> on good day, i'm chris jansing, live at msnbc headquarters in new york city. >> following the news that the world has waited 15 months to hear, israel and hamas have