as the same day your loan is on deck. >> good to be with you. i'm katie tur, breaking news out of the middle east in just four days time on sunday, israel and hamas will enter a cease fire,

potentially ending 15 months of fighting in gaza. >> the prime minister of qatar announced the deal just an hour ago, followed by president biden, who laid out the contours of the three phase deal that he proposed last may. >> the deal is structured in three phases. phase one will last six weeks. it includes a full and complete cease fire, a withdrawal of israeli forces from all the populated areas of gaza, and the release of a number of hostages held by hamas, including women and elderly and the wounded. and i'm proud to say americans will be part of that hostage release and phase one as well. and the vice president and i cannot wait to welcome them home. in exchange, israel released hundreds of palestinian prisoners. and during phase one, the palestinians can also return to their neighborhoods in all the areas of gaza. and the surge

humanitarian assistance into gaza will begin, and the innocent people can have a greater access to these vital supplies. you know, during the next six weeks, israel will negotiate the necessary arrangements to get phase two, which is a permanent end of the war. let me say it again. a permanent end of the war. when phase two begins, there will be an exchange of for release of the remaining living hostages, including male soldiers. and all remaining israeli forces will be withdrawn from gaza, and the temporary cease fire will become permanent. and finally, phase three. any final remains of hostages who have been killed will be returned to their families, and a major reconstruction plan for gaza will begin in both israel and in gaza. >> we are seeing celebrations in the street as it appears there will be soon. there will soon be

an end to the 466 days of suffering. joining us now from jerusalem, nbc news chief foreign correspondent richard engel, host of ayman right here on msnbc, ayman mohyeldin and independent journalist based in israel, noga tarnopolsky. all right, richard, i'm going to begin with you. this is a huge moment, to say the least. but it is not one that is a sure thing quite yet. it still has one major hurdle to go through in israel. tell me about that. >> so there are many obstacles that still need to be overcome. there are many things that could go wrong in this deal, but the first hurdle you're talking about is the israeli government, the security cabinet needs to approve the deal. it has been announced and it has been announced by qatar. it was announced by president biden. but israeli prime minister netanyahu has not come out and made any public statements. he

still has to go through a formal ratification process and his government is somewhat divided. he has members of the far right who want wanted more, wanted the war to continue. some of them wanted to resettle gaza with jewish settlers. this war has been profoundly divisive for israel. you mentioned that there were celebrations both in gaza and in israel, but they're of two very different natures. in gaza. there are there's an outpouring of joy and relief on the streets. people are are thankful that that there's going to be an end to the bombing, that they're going to be able to see food and water and, and basic supplies coming into the gaza strip. and then that they're not going to be hearing drones overhead constantly and not knowing when they go out if they're going to be able to come back home alive. there's also going to be a tremendous amount of disappointment when people who've been forced to be displaced in the south end up going back to the north, which has seen the most destruction,

and see that their their homes and towns have been have been destroyed. in israel, you have a much more conflicted society. this this is not a day of celebration. many israelis are happy to be putting this chapter behind them. but this 15 months has been a moment of soul searching for israel. it began with a with an intelligence failure. it began with the hamas hamas massacre of more than 1200 israelis. and that surprise attack, it is seen fights between members of the left and the right, and accusations that prime minister netanyahu has used this conflict for his own personal benefit to try and score political points. so we're not seeing a joyful outpouring on the streets of israel. it is. it is more of a time of reflection here. people are happy to be putting this behind them, but and happy that, of course, the hostages are going to be coming back, or at least those who are still alive. but they also know that a lot of hostages will not be coming home

and they'll be receiving coffins and bodies. >> one of the questions that that everyone is asking is why now? president biden said that this was much like the deal, or as basically the deal that he laid out in may that he said had all of the support. hamas even released a statement saying this deal was like the one in may. if we were able to come to an agreement, then we would have saved thousands of lives. so why now? why on this wednesday? >> well, it is a very good question, and i believe it is a question that historians are going to be looking at, and it is one that deserves serious investigation. the outline of the deal that has been described to us, and there are there are also annexes and maps and parts of the deal that are not being made public, but the outlines of the deal as they were described are very similar to or the outline is very similar to the to the may deal that president biden brokered. it is it is almost the same. so the question is, if you could reach this deal now, why couldn't you reach it

in may? the israeli government and president biden just came out and said, the reason is because hamas wasn't defeated enough and hamas refused to give in. but skeptics, critics of prime minister benjamin netanyahu believe that he wasn't ready for a deal. he wanted to wait until hamas was more defeated. he had a broader objective to change the map of the middle east. he was waiting for the inauguration of president trump. so i don't think really we have a lot of clarity at this stage of why there is that gap between may and right now. and i think it's you have two different interpretations. one is what the israeli government officially is saying. is hamas needed more punishment. and finally hamas crumbled and accepted. but there are skeptics who do not accept that outline. >> richard, donald trump is taking office on monday, just a few short days time. what sort of middle east will he be facing? >> so the middle east has been

profoundly changed until since that surprise attack on october 7th. that has changed the map of the middle east and is continuing to change the map of the middle east when thousands of hamas militants crossed over from gaza into israel in a surprise attack, a shocking attack that caught israel off guard. the. it was a tremendous embarrassment to the security establishment and embarrassment to the intelligence apparatus in this country, how they could have missed it, how it took them many hours to respond, days to clear the hamas fighters out of southern israel. since that moment and since the fighting began, there have been tens of thousands of palestinians killed. the official count is about 47,000, although medical journals say that the estimate is probably higher. as as palestinians are trapped under rubble and bodies were never located, and secondary effects of the conflict, 1200 israelis

plus were killed on that day. another 400 israeli troops died in combat in operations. so this this was a serious ground war. but it didn't just stay in israel. it didn't just stay in gaza. we've also seen israel, in coordination with the united states, go after and effectively dismantle hezbollah, backed by iran in lebanon, opening a new chapter for lebanon for the first time in living memory, than that that lebanon has had a real chance to forge a new, new path, a new independent future. the government of bashar al assad, the dictatorship which was also backed by iran, has fallen. and a still untested rebel government has taken over. iran is weakened. there is a new middle east that was ushered in on on that, on that terrible morning on october 7th, 15 months ago. >> so much change in such a short period of time. ayman, i'd ask you that same question. it

is profoundly different than it was 16 months ago. it's profoundly different than it was when donald trump left office. >> it is. and yet still, so much is still exactly the same. and i hate to be the outlier here, but i will say that the players may change and the dynamics may change. but the truth of the matter is the core issues are still the same. you have failed states across the region. you have authoritarian governments across the region. you have across the region. you still have israel that wants peace with its neighbors. it has peace with some neighbors. those peace treaties don't necessarily translate into like a warmth peace. they translate more into this kind of like cessation of hostilities. i think egypt and israel are the perfect example of that. so there is this sense that things are changing, but at the same time, the root problems of the middle east continue to be the same. and so if you're not going to have a paradigm shift in the region to address so many of these core issues, the failed states, the authoritarianism, the occupation of the palestinians, the

inability of countries to kind of progress economically and kind of bring about democratic change. as long as you don't have political plurality, if you don't have any of these kind of fundamental idealistic changes, the problems that donald trump are going to face are going to be the same that he, he, he faced. biden faced obama faced with just short term solutions. that is a good point. >> is there anybody in the middle east that wants to shift that paradigm? anybody stepping up to try and stabilize the region? is saudi arabia playing a role in that? the qataris are obviously trying to play a pretty big role. is there a country or a leader that can come in and try to, again to stabilize things? >> well, you know, from an analytical point of view, people are choosing stability over progress. and i know that that may sound a little bit nuanced, but the reality is, people, certainly the governments of the gulf region that say, look, we have to end the war. we have to end the collapsed states in libya, in sudan and somalia, in syria. now, you have in yemen, you have to bring these countries to a cessation of violence and then be able to build them. so i don't think any

one country is coming out and saying, hey, we're reformers, we're progressives, we're going to change. we're going to become more pluralistic and more democratic. and we're not seeing that also in the so-called won democracy in the middle east, which is israel. we're not seeing it move to a more centrist position. what we've seen it over the years has become more hardline, more extreme, right, more entrenched in the positions that it takes towards the palestinians. and you now have members of the israeli government who say they oppose this deal. they want to resettle gaza, they want to annex the west bank, and they've got an administration that's coming into power that may be willing to allow that annexation to take place. >> you know, i find your expertise in the region fascinating because you were there for the arab spring. you saw this moment of opportunity for the entire region, this moment of real hope that things were going to change. it didn't go that way. and now we're seeing, as you said, a hard a hardening of positions, a hardening of conservatism or extremism or or, you know, hard line coalitions within these, these states, even israel. yeah. is that i mean, is there a path

with the hardening that would lead to stabilization? i mean, democracy has been not working so well out there anywhere, even in israel. it's having issues. so it is a hardening of positions. and just a we just want to get along. let us do our thing. you can do your thing. is that the future? >> well, the problem is i think many leaders come in with this position, certainly in democratic countries like the united states, who come in and take a position that like, hey, i just have to hold this ship for four years. i need to make sure that america is not at war in the middle east for four years. or maybe some do want to go to war in the middle east. but the reality is our from our position, from our democracy, as messy as it is, we don't necessarily support democracy in the middle east. we don't necessarily support democratic change in the middle east. we prefer stability. and so the end result is that when you get countries that begin their democratic journey, it is oftentimes messy. we may get leaders that we don't like. we just saw what happened in syria, where the leader of that country is somebody that we had a $10 million bounty on their head for

a long time. so the reality is now we're going to meet with that person. are we going to be willing to let that country develop and evolve its own democratic practices, even if at times we may not agree with it every step of the way? and i think our track record shows, and certainly those of the region, as we've seen after the arab spring, we prefer authoritarian governments. we prefer what is perceived to be short term stability for long term progress and idealism. >> we've learned there are no clean decisions right now. let's talk about what's happening within israel. we were just talking with richard a moment ago about how this has to clear some hurdles internally, including passing the security council and the broader parliament, the knesset. what is the word on ben-gvir on smotrich about? these are the two far right leaders within the coalition. are they going to get on board with this? >> well, it has to pass the cabinet, but not the knesset. at

this point, it's looking like the two of them are not going to be on board with this and probably a few others, not just the other ministers from their parties, but i bet 1 or 2 likud ministers may not keep party discipline. i do think that netanyahu will manage to pass this by the cabinet. but there we enter a sort of internal israeli limbo, because listening again now to president biden's pretty clear declaration that phase two implies an absolute end to this war, declared end to this war, that israeli soldiers, he said, will withdraw from all populated areas of gaza. i'm not i don't think at this stage that a majority of the israeli cabinet that has been primed by prime minister netanyahu to believe that donald trump was going to come in and let them do

whatever they wanted, annex whatever they wanted, establish a jewish theocracy in gaza. that's what they were ready for, many of them. and that's not the reality they're crashing into right now. so i do think that netanyahu is going to have to shore up his flanks and make more of a political effort if he doesn't want to incur donald trump's anger within the first month of his presidency. >> what is the role that donald trump has played? you have haaretz. the more liberal news outlet in israel, the senior i believe, diplomatic correspondent, saying that donald trump was basically the reason this happened that that he strong armed, that he bent netanyahu's arm backwards and backwards and backwards until he finally came to the table to accept this deal, which again, has been a proposal since may. >> that's right. >> you're referring to haim levinson. i don't think he's

wrong, but i don't think that's the total picture here. i there's a israeli tendency to deify donald trump even among the left. i, i think that the mistaken steps here were taken by netanyahu. i think netanyahu way back in may, couldn't imagine an end to this war. he also spent this month shoring himself up politically. he brought another party into his coalition. this is going to sound pretty tinny and pretty superficial and pretty uncharitable on my part, because the war during these eight wasted months has brought israel very significant results, including basically eliminating hezbollah as a real player, eliminating hamas as a serious political player, but still, for the israeli population, the civilian israeli population, the

idea that their children died in army service. it's a conscript army. the six hostages, including the american citizen goldberg, poland, those who were executed in september. the idea that all of them could still be alive, and that this same deal was on the table in may, and that netanyahu simply dismissed it, is not going to be easy to swallow. and paradoxically, i think the idea that that is going to shock israelis is actually going to help netanyahu keep his most extremist ministers on side when he tells them, look, everyone hates us right now. this government can't fall or you're never going to have a chance at power again. you've only got me. >> so you believe that netanyahu will survive this and perhaps even thrive? >> i don't think he's going to thrive. i think he will survive tomorrow's vote. and i'm happy to eat my hat if i'm wrong. but

i don't actually see how this his current government will survive into the phase two part of the agreement, as president biden described it. of course, we have to see how donald trump team, donald trump's team, forgive me, decide to implement things from the american side. but the current constellation in israel is not going to be able to sign off on a complete withdrawal from gaza. >> all right. let's bring in former israeli consul general in new york, ambassador alon pinkas, also carnegie endowment for international peace senior fellow and former state department arab-israeli negotiator aaron david miller. alon, first to you, your reaction to this news? >> well, you know, any deal is a good deal, even if it's precarious, even if it's tenuous, even if it hinges on the durability or sustainability of a ceasefire, that is going to be very hard to enforce given

the topography, given what remains of gaza, given hamas's lack of any command structure, and so any skirmish would constitute a violation of the ceasefire. >> all that said and done, katie, it's an agreement that should have been signed in march and again in may. >> i know you've said ayman said this and you said this in the last 15 minutes. this agreement is identical to the agreement that president biden presented in may and went to the extent of saying that this was presented to him by no other than mr. netanyahu, who 48 hours or 72 hours rather later reneged on it, as he habitually does when he manipulates political interlocutors as an agreement. i'm happy it's done. but here's the thing, and aaron can attest to this from his vast experience in negotiating such deals. on

the one hand, you need the phases, you need the gradualism, you need the interim phases. on the other hand, when you start phasing it, the way it is structured, you're exposing its weaknesses, primarily the precariousness of the ceasefire. and that word. that is what worries me the most. one last thing. there were reports today that i haven't seen any follow up on, according to which the us provided hamas assurances that israel will not resume the war. and that and biden indeed indicated or hinted toward that, and it would lead to phase two, which includes israeli withdrawal. now, this is a rare moment in which there are two active administrations instead of one prime minister. that should have taken the decision in may. you have two american administrations, an outgoing and an incoming is constitutionally

weird, but aaron can attest to that better than i. but i don't know who the americans gave those assurances to. certainly they're not talking to hamas. i don't know if those assurances are. acknowledged by israel. so this is all very tentative right now. yeah, i know i sent the answer, but a deal is a deal and it's a good deal. >> the second phase, the, you know, the permanent portion of the ceasefire entering into that, as biden said, once it gets to the second phase and the second phase goes off, that is a permanent end to hostilities, a permanent cease fire. do you expect that that netanyahu is going to have enough support for this part of it? alon. >> no, no, i do not. but he has three options and i don't want to confuse our viewers. he basically has three political options. one is to try and manipulate his way through, which is his default modus

operandi. try to tell trump that it was hamas, try to tell the coalition that it was trump. say, say everything to anyone, and kind of hopscotch into the next few months because all he cares about is his political survival. option two understand that this government is going to fall if it if indeed israel withdraws from gaza and try to reshuffle, get the lunatic hard right out and try and lure the some centrist parties in. that's easier said than done, but it's doable. the third option would be to go to an election to say, i want a renewed mandate. now he's in a very difficult situation to do that. he's in the midst of a trial. he is not popular. he has not been held accountable yet because he won't take responsibility for his part in the calamity of october 7th,

2023. undoubtedly the worst day in israel's history. so i doubt he would want to go to an election. but he does have this option. >> well, it depends on who is challenger is and how strong someone like naftali bennett ends up being. aaron david miller, tell me what you're watching for as this news was announced and whether you believe we're going to get to sunday. >> you know, nobody ever lost money betting against israeli palestinian peace agreements. and i it's extraordinary to me, frankly, that you even got this far, given the fundamental mistrust and absence of confidence between the two major combatants. so you ended up with a three phase deal. i think it's very hard to imagine at this stage, barring any fundamental changes on either side, that the transition from phase one to phase two is going to be

successful. and the terms of phase two, which is a release of all the remaining hostages in exchange for a permanent cessation of hostilities. nobody talked about ending the war, a permanent cessation of hostilities, and the withdrawal of israeli forces from gaza. neither hamas nor the current israeli government is in a position, it seems to me, to do that deal. i think that the terms and the positions of hamas and the israelis are mutually exclusive. hamas is not going to return the 40 or 50 idf soldiers living and dead in exchange for anything short of a end to the war and an israeli withdrawal. and i would argue under the circumstances, no israeli government, neither one headed by yair lapid or naftali bennett, would agree to withdraw israeli forces from gaza, given the fact that there is no

security architecture to replace, to guarantee, to assure, to help deter and preempt the resurgence of an organization which, according to the secretary of state yesterday, has replaced through recruitment. yeah, most of the 15 to 20,000 fighters that the israelis have taken off the battlefield. so the biggest, the biggest adversary to the implementation of this deal is the reality that there has been absolutely a lot of planning for post-conflict gaza, but not a shred of preparation or implementation. and that would require leaders. it would require a leader in israel that was prepared to understand the military forces, a means to an end, and the only way to permanently guarantee israeli security and prevent the

resurgence of hamas as an alternative political reality and some sort of transition from gaza to a broader process. at some point, not now, to deal with the underlying causes of the israeli-palestinian conflict. so i'm thankful, grateful that you're going to have phase one, the hostages, their families, gazans will get six weeks of quiet and humanitarian assistance beyond that. katie, i'm not sure i'd be willing to bet much. >> all right. well, we're going to put a pause on this conversation just for a moment. everybody stick around for us. we're going to take a quick break. we're going to talk about the other big news of the day. and that was the confirmation hearing for attorney general pam bondi. how did she do? what was bondi. how did she do? what was she asked? we're back in 90s. (auctioneer) let's start the bidding at 5 million dollars. (man) robinhood gold members get a 3% ira match.

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incoming president donald trump. >> i know you may not expect it. i know you wouldn't have accepted this nomination if you thought it possible, but let's imagine that once again, president elect trump issues a directive or order to you or to the fbi director that is outside the boundaries of ethics or law. what will you do? >> senator, i will never speak on a hypothetical, especially one saying that the president would do something illegal. what i can tell you is my duty, if confirmed as the attorney general, will be to the constitution and the united states of america. and the most important oath, part of that oath that i will take are the last four words. so help me god. >> joining us now, punchbowl news co-founder and msnbc political contributor jake sherman. i know she said she's going to put the constitution above everything else. so why is it so hard for her? please

explain it to me. why is it so hard for her and other nominees to comment on on a hypothetical like that, if the president breaks the law, asks you to break the law, would you do it? >> katie, the way these hearings are designed is you don't need to answer any questions. you could get away with saying, i'm not going to talk about hypotheticals. my duty is to the constitution. my duty is to the rule of law. and when you have a senate republican conference, that is way, way more loyal to donald trump than it was in 2017 and even 2017 to 2021, you are going to have senators who are going to vote yes regardless. and quite frankly, senate republicans probably have one nominee that's standing that they could kill. they can't they can't kill them all. and i don't think they want to get rid of pam bondi. but these hearings are just designed to be able to evade. and there's nothing that senators can do to force her

into any nominee, not only pam bondi, but any nominee into a corner and force them to answer questions they don't want to answer again, especially with the entirety of the senate republican conference marching lockstep behind behind her and donald trump. >> is it ultimately because the public isn't paying close attention? the public isn't demanding answers to questions like this? >> yes. and i think a few things. i don't think that anybody, not anybody, i think the vast majority of people don't know and don't care who the attorney general is. i don't know that that, to be honest with you, i don't know that that that plays a difference in the confirmation process. i don't think it makes a difference. i don't think that's number one. and number two, i think that the nominees that go up to capitol hill, donald trump's nominees, know how to play to trump. they know that what they have to say, what they should say and what they shouldn't say to get confirmed. i mean, the real test here, katie, will be somebody like tulsi gabbard, who's nominated

to be the director of national intelligence, who has a long history and many questions about her contacts with other countries. her previous distaste for fisa and for wiretapping capabilities that today, cia director john ratcliffe said, make up the majority of the intelligence that is, that is presented to the to the president of the united states. so all of that put together, i think that the playbook here is relatively clear. >> what about kash patel? he came up quite a bit during this this confirmation hearing. she was asked frequently about what she would demand of him, what she would allow him to do as head of the fbi if she were >> well, number one, the basic premise that the fbi does fall under the department of justice, it's part of the department of justice. and i mean, then there's kash patel, the person. right. he has spoken a lot over

the last ten or so years about what he thinks of the government and what he would do if afforded power and if confirmed to be the fbi director. i would say, katie, i am relatively surprised by how well received kash patel has been by members of the senate republican conference. maybe not surprised, but gobsmacked perhaps is the right way to say it. because it seems like, to be honest with you, the odds are that he will get confirmed as well. can't can't swear to that. there's obviously two tiers of nominees here. there's the marco rubio's, the pam bondi's. i wouldn't put them in the same category, but the john ratcliffe that is the general column of people who are going to get confirmed. doug burgum, people like that. then there's kash patel and tulsi gabbard and pete hegseth, who's going to get confirmed was perhaps in the latter category. now he's no longer he's most likely almost certainly going to get confirmed. i think there is a volume of evidence that kash of kash patel, what he would do

if he was in charge of the fbi, and i think that will come up should he make it to a confirmation hearing. >> one of the reasons why kash patel's name came up was that he has an enemies list, people that he thinks should be prosecuted. they talk about investigating the investigators. jack smith was one of those names that came up. liz cheney came up as well. but there was a particularly contentious moment between adam schiff, the new senator from california, obviously formerly a congressman who we all know well, asking her whether there would be an investigation into the special counsel into jack smith. let's listen. >> the president has said jack smith should go to jail. will you investigate jack smith? >> senator, i haven't seen the file. i haven't seen the investigation. i haven't looked at anything. it would be irresponsible of me to make a commitment regarding anything. >> so a summary by the president or his desire to investigate jack smith would not be enough for you to open an investigation

of jack smith. is that right? >> i will look at the facts and evidence. in any case, what is the desire on capitol hill to see these sorts of investigations, perhaps to see an investigation into a former colleague like liz cheney? >> the appetite is quite high, to be honest with you. there's a lot of people in the house republican conference, by the way. they're standing right behind me right now in a room talking about tax reform. the appetite the appetite is quite high to see investigations into people like jack smith, liz cheney, people who have been involved in some of the january 6th prosecutions and investigations. and the jury is out. we reported, katie, just yesterday or the day before, that. there's active conversations between members of the january 6th committee and the biden white house about potential pardons. and that is still very much on the table when it comes to members of the january 6th committee liz cheney, bennie thompson, people of that nature who have been very active and very outspoken

about what donald trump did or did not do on january 6th and bring us up to speed on rubio quickly. >> and john ratcliffe, they also face hearings today. how did their confirmation processes go? >> very well. you could tell they're former members of congress because they are very well equipped to answer questions and to proceed quite smoothly. i think these are going to be two of the earliest nominees that are confirmed, perhaps along with pete hegseth. to be honest with you, i would imagine that hegseth is much closer to a party line vote. but i really think, katie, that marco rubio and john ratcliffe are going to get confirmed, probably with wide bipartisan margins. i just think they are two of the if you put them in the mix of all the people that trump has nominated. two of the shining stars, according to republicans and democrats, people who are practiced, people who are well equipped for the job. you might not agree with them if you're a democrat on everything, but you would have a tough time making a case that they're not qualified for the job. >> all right, jake sherman, thank you so much. coming up

next, we're going to go back to that top story of hours, the cease fire, which is supposed to start on sunday between hamas and israel. that's when we'll also start seeing a return of also start seeing a return of hostages. don't my moderate to severe crohn's symptoms kept me out of the picture. now i have skyrizi. ♪ i've got places to go and i'm feeling free. ♪ ♪ control of my crohn's means everything to me. ♪ ♪ control is everything to me.♪ and now i'm back in the picture. feel significant symptom relief at 4 weeks with skyrizi, including less abdominal pain and fewer bowel movements. skyrizi helped visibly improve damage of the intestinal lining. and with skyrizi, many were in remission at 12 weeks, at 1 year, and even at 3 years. don't use if allergic. serious allergic reactions, increased infections, or lower ability to fight them may occur. before treatment, get checked for infections and tb. tell your doctor about any flu-like symptoms or vaccines. liver problems leading to hospitalization

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gathered here for the past 15 months, and behind me you can see the pictures of some of the hostages. there's a very small gathering in the back. katie, you might see some candles. someone's playing the guitar. very few people have come here tonight. there's a woman who came up to us. she said that she heard the news of the cease fire. she ran here expecting to see celebrations. but she said, where is everyone? and the fact is, is that there is no sense of celebration for the family members of the hostages. a lot of them have chosen not to speak tonight. some, but for the most part, they're home. they're waiting to see what happens next. if their loved ones are going to be on the list of the first 33 hostages to be released. but i have to tell you, i was at a protest not far from here in front of the defense ministry. and it was,

you know, people are emotional, they're sad, but they're really angry because they say that this deal that they've just agreed to, it was on the table back in may. now, israeli officials will say that hamas did not want to negotiate. they only wanted to dictate the terms of this deal. they said that mohammed sinwar, that sinwar, who has now been killed, of course, but leader of hamas in gaza, did not want to negotiate. but we've just heard in the past 24 hours from the very controversial far right national security minister itamar ben-gvir, who effectively raised his hand and said, i was able to block some of the hostage deals and i'm going to try to do it again. this time, it sparked fury among the family members of the hostages. now he sees this as essentially surrendering to hamas. and it's not just political opposition. there are families, too, who are against this deal because they think that the second batch of hostages to be released after the first 42 days, that it's

effectively a death sentence. they don't think that they will make it that far, that far that those hostages will never make it back. and so they see this as a death sentence for the military age. men who are going to be are expected to be released in the second part of this deal. they don't see that happening. and so they are opposing this deal. so there is broad support for it, but it's definitely not unanimous. >> katie. all right. daniele hamamdjian, thank you very much. ayman mohyeldin and aaron david miller are still with me. let's suppose that we get far enough into this deal. and it's very much a big if. to get to the reconstruction phase of gaza. that's phase three. and the who is in charge of gaza, after all is said and done. ayman, you and i were talking about this during the break. is there a leader i know the pa wants to be in charge of gaza? is there a leader that is out there that could unite the palestinian people, both in the west bank and in gaza?

>> there isn't one right now that comes to mind. that would have the kind of credibility that is immediately needed, right? there's always there's always a few names that are bounced around. some are in israeli prisons, some that are not in the palestinian authority, in the west bank, technocrats and people of that type. but in order to have any kind of mechanism that would allow a leader like that to emerge, you are going to have to have some kind of political process or democratic election. we're very far away from that right now. given how badly decimated gaza is, that, you're not even going to have an infrastructure in which you can have any kind of political process. i think the immediate short term, you know, path forward is to have some kind of international framework that allows the delivery of aid into gaza in a way that allows israel to feel comfortable that the material going into gaza is being used precisely for humanitarian aid to help the people, medicine, food reconstruction, and also for the egyptians, who have been time and time again, certainly in the last 15 months, accused of saying, hey, you've been turning a blind eye to allowing all of

this to come in from egypt into the gaza strip. and that's part of the reason why israel made the argument that it needed to hold on to the philadelphia corridor. but at the same time, you're going to hear some pressure from the international community, certainly from the u.s, if they abide by this commitment that israel cannot just have a veto over every aspect of humanitarian aid that goes in. we've seen the number of aid going into gaza dwindle in the last couple of weeks. in the last couple of months, you are talking about a herculean effort to try and just get the basic standards of living up from what it has been over the past 15 months, and you're going to need a multinational international cooperation, not to mention getting a handle on the disease. >> of course, that has taken over in some parts of gaza, and prosthetics for people who've lost limbs and clean water and sanitation and hygiene, rebuilding an entire region strip of land. aaron david miller, what is the international coalition look

like? or the or the gulf coalition coalition look like that will come in and rebuild gaza? that was part of the deal. if it gets to stage three, that there will be multi nation, a multi nation team that will come in and help sustain that effort. >> you know katie, i hate to be negative and maybe it's simply realistic about this. but it's going to take billions to reconstruct. all right billions. there is no way i think that the international community forget the international community. it's an it's a nebulous sort of construct which in part is so divided, so distracted. i mean, look at the last 15 months. where has the quote unquote international community been? it's been divided. it's distracted, it's preoccupied. it hasn't had much agency in affecting icj. icc haven't had hasn't had un hasn't had much

agency in in affecting the trajectory of this war. so my sense is this that if gaza is going to be reconstructed, there has got to be a political frame here. gaza first cannot be gaza only. you're not going to get a dime out of the emiratis or the saudis or the kuwaitis, if in fact, the money is simply going to be used to rebuild namely hamas and israel, are going to continue to go at it. and i suspect the inconvenient reality here is that hamas is going to survive. it cannot govern gaza, but it can survive as an insurgency through co-optation, through intimidation, in an effort to effect whatever political framework or entity the international community or the

region wants to put up. and this gets to the issue of the absence of any serious implementation of mechanisms, governance, security, reconstruction on post-conflict gaza as long as the war goes on, which is why the second phase becomes critical. as long as the war goes on, i see very limited possibilities other than humanitarian assistance, maybe to solve and to relieve the suffering of 2.3 million palestinians. it's been a humanitarian catastrophe. aside from the psychological and spiritual wreckage of an entire generation of palestinians who have lived through this. so, again, i think you got to have a political frame. and that requires an israeli leader willing, key arab states willing, an american president willing to take the lead in this. and yes, the international

community marshaled and mobilized around that leadership. >> this was mentioned a moment ago. but antony blinken, the secretary of state, said the reality is that for every combatant that israel is killed, hamas combatant that they've killed, they've they've had three more take their place as recruits or people who believe in the cause. how does israel and gaza or israel and the palestinian people, how do they come to peace? how how could there possibly be a two state solution when neither side really wants one? israel doesn't want a two state solution as it is currently configured. the government does. and the far right benjamin netanyahu. they don't want a two state solution. and frankly, the israeli public doesn't necessarily want a two state solution either. so how do you get to a peace? >> well, you will have to show the israelis and the palestinians that this is the alternative of not having peace. the who's showing the palestinians the reality of what

palestinians just lived through right now over the past 15 months, certainly in gaza, and what has happened in the west bank. we can't ignore what has happened in the west bank has been one of the deadliest times of the west bank. we've seen settlement expansion, more annexation of land. that has been also a reminder to the palestinians that this is an ongoing conflict. and in the absence of some kind of political horizon that has to be presented to both sides from the international community, you're not going to get there. the truth of the matter is, when there is a cessation of violence, it does not mean you're working towards peace. and we have seen time and time again and kind of sometimes live under this fallacy, like, oh, if there are no bullets flying, then peace is happening. and the reality is that's not been the case when there have been no bullets flying. we've seen the expansion of settlements, we've seen the hardening of hamas in gaza. we've seen hamas planning an attack like october 7th. and what you end up with is 15 months of absolute carnage and death and hell for everybody in the region. so you do have to, at some point, to erin's point, have leaders who are willing to

come forward and say this is not sustainable, although it has been happening now for decades, but this is not sustainable and we have to make some difficult and hard choices. but you also have to address some of the core issues of what this conflict is about. and we're nowhere near having those conversations yet. >> why does hamas keep getting recruits? why is why is hamas as an organization so hard to eliminate? that was israel's goal. they've been trying to do this now for 16 months. they're still there. they're still negotiating, still know where the hostages are. why is it so hard to eliminate hamas? >> because it is an ideology based on resistance. and so ultimately, any organization that bases itself on resisting israel's occupation and the inability of palestinians to have liberation is going to take root in palestinian society. and so when you come forward and you say to people in gaza, well, look at the palestinian authority, they've been negotiating with israel, what have they gotten in return for it? are they any closer to statehood? they're not. so ultimately they're able to present to the people of gaza. certainly, it's going to be much

more difficult now after the last 15 months. but in the years that i covered palestinian politics, in the years that i lived in gaza, in the years that i met with palestinians, and i watched how they interacted with hamas, it provided social, economic, political fabric to that society in gaza. and so it was able to retain a tremendous amount of political support and popularity for the for the ideology that it presented, for the ability to say, we will not compromise on our principles. and so because of that, they were able to maintain their presence despite what has happened. this is not the first war that israel and hamas have had. and hamas has always been able to replenish its leaders, rebuild itself, reconstitute itself in different ways, in different strengths. >> aaron, if you were advising donald trump on on how to how to handle what's happening in the middle east right now, what would you be advising him to do? >> well, first of all, i'd say, you know, mr. president, you're a lucky man. you've inherited a region that actually has conflicts that are trending toward de-escalating. you have

real opportunity. you have opportunity in lebanon with the election of a lebanese president and the choice of a prime minister who was not necessarily acceptable to hezbollah. and you have this agreement today. you've got iran on their back feet. you've got a gulf, the gulf states interested in in regional integration. you're going to have to make a choice, because governing is about choosing. you're going to have to decide what, what, what are your priorities and what and what what are not important to you. and this requires, katy, frankly, a rational conception of what the american national interest is. i'm not sure this sort of advice for a guy who is essentially a transactionalist and whose conception of the national interest is more frequently tied to his politics, his vanity, his financial interests, and perhaps even his whims and fancies. but be that

as it may, my personal views, having worked for democrats and republicans and voted for democrats and republicans aside, there's real opportunity here. there really is. whether the incoming administration will choose to begin the hard work of trying to fashion out of the conflict, violence and trauma that has befallen the region for so many years. something better. you know, i'm in katy. you tell me. >> yeah, i'm going to i'm going to have to leave it on that hopeful note. aaron david miller, thank you so much, ayman mohyeldin. thank you as well. again, a cease fire that starts as of now on sunday between israel and hamas. that's going israel and hamas. that's going to upset stomach iberogast indigestion iberogast bloating iberogast thanks to a unique combination of herbs, iberogast helps relieve six digestive symptoms to help you feel better. six digestive symptoms. the power of nature.

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