we turn now to our moderate exertion correspondent mr. kent jones. hi, kent. >> hi, rachael. yesterday i was talking about an event in london in which a bunch of dapper english chaps compete in sports for the athletically indifferent perhaps? i ran out of time yesterday. but now here's part two of the chaps olympics. >> excellent. >> the chaps olympics, glorious gathering of well heeled british gentlemen take in the open air, drinking sh competing, socializing. drinking. they may have suffered defeat elsewhere in the sporting world, here it's civilized traditions receive their due respect. >> show me a brazilian who can maintain his balance while umbrella jousting. >> did somebody say umbrella jousting? lance armstrong consider the goblet tossed. how about the ginn and tonic one

leg hop? >> there's a hop. there's a skip. >> steady old man. no spilling. finally, a sport with real world applications, next up, the mustache tug of war. easy, chaps. it's attached. after such exertion, it's time for the martini knockout relay, explains itself, i think. and finally, the cucumber sandwich diskus. as in most things -- balance is key. i can tell you who won each of these events but i suspect no one bothered to write it down. besides the point, really. >> well done. >> that looks like a good time. >> it does. well, i will take that one physical feat i learned in england, the one thing i learned how to do physically that i did not know how to do before i went is make a pins cup.

very complicated cocktail. >> priority. >> they were really strong. thanks, kent. thank you for watching tonight. "hardball" with chris matthews is up next. good night. >> at last, richy speaks. let's play hard ball. good evening, i'm chris matthews in washington. leading off tonight, the witnesses for the prosecution. tonight came the moment many were waiting for, frank richy and other fire fighters that sotomayor ruled against testified in her confirmation hearing. they made a compelling case that in skirting the charge the promotion test results the city itself administered discriminated against minorities. the city of new haven discriminated against worthy firefighters like french ricci who did well in the test.

>> in just a moment, we'll join the debate over the case of affirmative action and alleged reverse discrimination. plus, the white house strikes back. the campaign season is upon us. we're talking off year. president obama's in new jersey this afternoon campaigning for troubled governor jon corzine. in reality, he is fighting for his own administration pushing back against rejectionist democrats and stubborn republicans in congress. also, how will we supposed to view the c.i.a.'s failure ordered by vice president cheney to inform congress on its hit squad program? a vie lafgs the public's right to know or the latest example of how the agency is being used as a political football. "washington post" david ig nashs and bob bear take that one on tonight. guess who is the possible 2012 presidenti

presidential candidate with the highest favorability. here's a hint, she's quitting her job in less than two weeks. that's in the politics fix. and foonlly, what about john mccain. he used joe the plumber as part of the grand campaign strategy last year? >> megan mccain gives us another take on her father's tool. that's in the "hardball" side show. we begin with frank ricc whoichlt testified today in sotomayor's confirmation hearing. pat buchanan is a msnbc analyst. john, thank you for joining us. pat buchanan, thank you for joining us. let's look rikt now at a bit of frank ricci's testimony. >> i studied harder than i ever had before, reading, making

flash cards, reading again, all by listening to prepared tapes. i was an absentee husband and father because of it. the city of new haven felt not enough minorities would have been promoted and the city's civil service rules and the charter would be too high. therefore, they chose not to fill the vacanvacancy czys. >> they through out the test. they threw out the guys who did well on the test. and they basically buckled to whatever. let's go with your view on this. what is the impact of mr. ricci's testimony and also the testimony of the hispanic firefighter mr. vargas who also lost out in this decision by the city of new haven? >> frank ricci is what the american dream is all b he succeeded through hard work and tremendous effort to overcome obstacles others didn't have to

achieve his dream. and he was denied it in part because sotomayor, herself a beneficiary of affirmative action at princeton and yale through his threw his appeal into the trash can and even the second appellate court said he was wrong when he voted on the thing. the supreme court, of course, overturned it. all the justices said they should have had a hearing. it tells us what sotomayor's all about. and it tells us what frank ricci is all about. >> john payton, your view from the naacp? what do you make of his testimony? >> well, the same testimony he's been giving before. i think he said something similar to that when he was on the show last time. i don't think it actually relates to sotomayor. she acted appropriately in the decision she reached. what pat just said that all the justices said that they had acted improperly is actually wrong. they made it clear that they would have affirmed what the circuit court panel had done

below. you have to separate two issues. frank ricci complains about how he was treated in this case. that's one issue. the second issue is whether or not, in fact, the circuit court acted appropriately. i think if you heard anything from this set of hearings, it's that she acted completely appropriately abiding by existing precedent and that the supreme court changed the rules of the game and made a decision based upon a new rule, not the old rule. under the old rule which she had applied, the circuit court did what it is supposed to do. >> the issue is whether frank ricci and the fire fighters who passed that test and won those promotions were dealt with justly when they were denied those promotions. on what grounds were they denied the promotions? no one has demonstrated that anything in that test was bigoted or biassed against african-americans. >> that's not exactly the point. >> they did things honorbly. but that is the fundamental

point. >> the spoipoint is whether thes the right test. >> her whole life she argued for ethnic and racial preferences in hiring and promotions and going to colleges and in getting jobs. and that has been the theme of her life. and the question is can she sit on the supreme court and forget everything she brings to the court from her life? >> she's been on the court for 17 years. there is not another case that anyone pointed to that raised any issue along these lines at all. the question is whether or not that test was fair to all of the people who were taking it. and new haven concluded that it was not. and i think i said the last time i was on the show if we had a farrer test, no one would be complaining. because everyone is better off when everyone is treated fairly. new haven -- >> why was it an unfair test? because black americans none of them were in the top 19? did that make it unfair per se?

as for a case -- let me give you the new york case. sotomayor said new york had to extend voting rights to felons at the other prisons because there were so many african-americans there and so many hispanics in there not to give them the vote was represented a impact of the law. even though the 14th amendment says the states decide on who gets to vote. >> actually, that's not what that case was about either. it was about whether or not under the voting rights act section two you could deny the vote to people who were felons. and she read the law word by word and concluded that there was no exception and that she said they should have been allowed to vote. that is simply about whether or not you are denying people the right to vote. now come back to the case at hand which is what happened in new haven? and whether or not that was a fair test. the real issue is whether that test was measuring what was

supposed to be measured. and i think that the evidence was pretty clear that if you wanted to know who was going to be a good leader, who would be a good commander, that was not the way you would go about doing it. >> let me ask you, mr. payton, a lot of people believe that s.a.t. scores are unfair because they're tests. they don't like the whole notion of a culturally based test. are you one of those that think the tests are discriminatory? >> no. >> does judge sotomayor believe that? >> i don't know what she believes about that. i don't think she obviously took all the tests. and no one would say let's use the s.a.t. to decide who ought to be a captain and a lieutenant on the new haven fire department. >> sir, you know as well as i do, if of the eight top applicants for lieutenant and captain four of them were african-american, nobody would be looking at that test at all. one would have been just fine. the fact that african-americans didn't come in the top 19, that

is why the test suddenly become suspect. maybe the reason is the african-american firefighters didn't study as hard. maybe they didn't work as hard. maybe they're not as bright. maybe they're not doing as well on these exams. but to assume that some kind of discrimination must occur simply because the test results bring in 18 white folks and one hispanic, it seems to me is a rush to judgment. >> no one was assuming that. new haven, actually, had experience with african-american and hispanic firefighters being promoted. and, in fact, 50% of the captains and lutz weieutenants hispanic and african-american. new hafrn knew that they certainly had qualified firefighters who were black and african-american and spanish. this test was used for the first time. and when this test was used for the first time, those results were inconsistent with new haven's own experience. and when they actually talked to some experts in testing, they had reason to believe the test was not measuring what they wanted measured.

they needed a fair test for everybody. >> do you think, given that test and given how it came out, those firefighters should have been denied the promotion? >> i think that if everyone got to take a fair test and we would have had results, everyone would have felt very comfortable with. but the flaw in this -- >> why are you uncomfortable with results? >> i just told you. new haven has experience with african-american and hispanic firefighters doing just fine as captains and lieutenants, passing other tests and being promoted. they used this test for the first time, examine tests and see if they're measuring what you want measured. >> your sum sgs the test is unfair because the white firefighters came out on top. i don't know where you come to that conclusion. >> actually, there are guidelines in the eoc about how you look at this. and when they looked at this and then when they asked experts about how the test was working, the experts made this following point that you certainly wouldn't use a multiple choice test when 60% of your decision

which new haven does and very few if any other jurisdictions do. the jurisdictions closest by weight the multiple choice part as only 25%. >> here's something everybody can understand. you are arguing the opposite? you're arguing that the very notion of a multiple choice objective test where you have to answer particular questions about specific questions and perhaps chemical fires and electrical fires and complicated things you have to answer, are you saying by its nature a written test which involves multiple choice answers is, in fact, inherently unfair? it sounds like you're saying you shouldn't give too much weight to that. well why not? why not? >> if you were designing this test, i think you would change both the questions and its weighting. i'm not saying you can't have a test. i'm saying that the test ought to be weighted appropriately and that most important thing you would want to know about who can be a leader is in an interview or some other assessment that would be much more focused on what you want in your captain

and lieutenant. >> sir, you seem to be saying this test came in with the wrong result and we have to get ourselves a test that will come in with the results. >> you keep saying that over and over again. i never said that. >> that's what it sounds like. >> i said if you want to measure for leadership, measure for leadership. >> let's go to what the justice candidate believes. pat, do you believe she believes tests are inherently unfair, written tests? does she believe this? >> i showed you that statement in "the new york times." she believes -- culturally, she believes some of the tests are culturally biassed and therefore there should be affirmative action for hispanics and other minorities. what i don't understand, chris, i understand the argument for african-americans. i don't understand the argument for hispanics. they were never enslaved. they never had jim crow. puerto ricans came to america in the 1950s. where are they being preferred? >> let me just say this we have many more minorities than african-americans who have been

victims of very nasty discrimination including puerto ricans and other hispanics in this country. i don't think there's any question about how racism and discrimination, ethnic hostility have affected more than african-americans in this country. >> all rightment let me mention irish-americans have been discriminated for almost 100 years. we all remember no irish need apply. should irish-americans be preferred in the ivy league? >> you're making a slightly different point. this is not an affirmative action case. it's whether or not we can have a fair test. and, you know, we want a fair test for everybody. >> okay. >> if we have a fair test and people actually get the promotions on the basis of a fair test, no complaints from anybody. >> let me ask you both, do you expect -- this is a political question -- do you think this will cost the nominee votes? i've been hunching that lindsey gram, orrin hatch and chuck grassley are three republicans that might vote for her confirmation. do you think this will stop that? the performance by the two

witnesses today, mr. vargas and mr. ricci? so compelling. it will kill her chances with those three republicans? >> i think it will have no effect. >> i don't know the answer to that. i would think that a majority of the republicans on the floor on a swing majority would guess would get against sotomayor. >> i'm wondering whether they'll get at least three. i'm of the pin -- i'm not sure what is so compelling. i'm going to watch and see how this plays in the press the next 24 hours. i have a hunch that mr. ricci and mr. vargas were very compelling on the stand and what had been very boring hearings and the only people with personality we heard from including the nominee who has been coached so much that she doesn't display any personality. and i think it's hurt her. but we'll see. pat buchanan, thank you. john payton, too much coaching. too much coaching. too much cover-up of the real identity. there may be more a hell of an interesting candidate.

dick cheney tried to keep secrets and can president obama make good on his promise to look forward, not backward, when his attorney general is considering and investigation of criminality among those who violate the law. "the washington post" david ignacious joins us to talk about the potential damage to the cia and the disclosures with what the president is up to. you're watching "hardball." could someone toss me an eleven sixteenths wrench over here?

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welcome back to "hardball." i would like to see the law honored. the cia is supposed to tell the congress what it's up to and what it anticipates doing. the words got out that they were planning to have a hit team going around the world killing al qaeda operatives. congress is supposed to know about such stuff. you're saying -- >> well, i'm saying -- >> they didn't have to tell them? >> if i have an idea, do i have to tell you about it in advance? >> the law says so. if you have a program, it's a real program, obviously you do need to inform congress. lee on panetta is the new cia director. he decided he should inform congress. if i were director of cia, i would have done it too. whether it was illegal or not to have done it is a separate yes. >> why would cheney tell the cia don't tell congress? his daughter who is the only one speaking on this says democrats can't handle hot stuff as she put it. in other words, democrats as a party are not trustworthy with

national secrets. therefore, that's her father's reason for not telling them. isn't that an incredible statement? >> divisive cheney rhetoric that country had enough of. i you know, cheney and company lost big time in our presidential election. i do think that we went through a period of real hysteria where everything was held in tight. everybody was panicked. we're coming out of that period. and so i like the idea of panetta looking at this, deciding he doesn't want to do it. but thinking he ought to brief congress about it. what i don't like, chris, is congress treating this as a gotcha. they've been looking for evidence that the cia is lying to the country. >> who's doing this? >> i'm told that when panetta went up to brief congress on this program that he had just found out about it and decided he didn't want to do it and briefing them immediately. i'm told by people close to panetta the reaction of some house democrats was we have vindication for what the speaker said. now we go out and show them.

>> because nancy pelosi said she's been lied to by the cia. >> lied to by the cia. i think that's really the problem here. somehow we got to stop treating the cia as a political football. >> you're saying that democrats are calm today in the "washington post" is that democrats are using this situation, the failure of the cia to notify them because the vice president told them not to about a secret hit plan is being used by the democrats and friends of the speaker to prove that they're not an honest organization? >> that that is certainly -- >> let me go to bob bear. my concern is the vice president is operating in an executive capacity when under the constitution he has no executive authority. he, himself, denied, as incredible it seems, denied his participation in the executive branch of government. he says for purposes of disclosure of the income, et cetera, et cetera, he doesn't have to tell anybody that he's a member of the executive branch which i find part of his sort of m.o. your thoughts on this bob? >> the vice president is out of bounds, clearly. he has hidden a lot from, you know, from congress and there

were assassination squads run out of the vice president's office. they were directed out of the vice president's office. they heard enough of this to make it true. but on the c.i.a.'s part, it's on firp ground. look, no weapons were deployed number people were deployed. it was simply tasking. it was contingency planning. the cia does this all the time. if every time the cia came up with an idea, expansive as they are sometimes, went to the hill, it would be tied up forever. the cia is on firm ground. i completely agree with david. this is just -- this is pelosi getting back at the cia for embarrassing her. >> how do you know she's doing this? >> i don't know -- >> didn't you say she is getting back -- >> nancy pelosi is getting back at the cia. how do you know that? >> that whole tiff we went through before about what she knew about torture and didn't and the cia called her untruthful on this. i think they're mad about it. the democrats are mad about it. they raised the word assassination. look at the evil cia out there

secret teams and the rest. they know full well that the cia had full authority after 9/11 to go out and kill people, targeted killing. >> look, i think it's a misuse of the term assassination. killing terrorists is not assassination. killing politically is assassination. but in the "wall street journal," hardly a democratic tool that broke this story on monday. "the new york times" broke the story on sunday. the word assassination was first used by "the wall street journal," not the democrats. >> sir -- >> so you're saying you're blaming the democrats for something "the wall street journal" did and you're saying the democrats put together a political hit operation to make nancy pelosi look better. give me a member of congress that's done that. >> the fact that they wrote a letter saying they were lied to. there was affirmative, you know, disinformation passed from the cia. they provided no evidence for this. the cia -- >> the chairman of the intelligence committee you're talking about? >> exactly.

the letter has been on the internet. it's been made public. the accusations are just unseemly the way congress is going after the cia when it was really a problem in the white house. but, again this is washington. you know, the stuff flows down. and the cia gets blamed and demoralizing. it is not worth it. >> well, maybe we're reaching confluence of opinion here. it's not the c.i.a.'s fault that the vice president goes over there any number of time in the buildup of war and tries to sharpen their case for a war with iraq. and now we find out the vice president told them at some point don't release any information to congress because as cheney's daughters now talks for him says because they can't trust the democrats with hot stuff. we have a constitution where somebody without executive authority or constitutional authority called dick cheney is out there telling our intelligence's agency what's to do and what not to tell congress to do. your thoughts on this? >> well, my feeling is that the cia has no greater enemy, the

cia professionalism had no greater enemy during the bush years that vice president cheney. he was leaning on him. he was beating up on him. he was, you know, way over the line. what we ought to want, what you ought to want, what bob bear wants because he worked there is for us to have a professional intelligence service the way we have a professional military, for the country to respect that. and for politicians not to take turns taking shots at them, you know, cheney took his shots when he was in and now we have i do think we have house democrats taking shots. i think at some point the american people have to say, enough. we wouldn't tolerate it with the military. we're not going to tolerate it on the intelligence service. back off, everybody. i think this is a useful incident. you're asking for names and all that. >> i hope i haven't spoken out of line. i agree. i think it's cheney's fault. i think the cia gets a lot of hits. do you believe the democrats are abusing the cia the way cheney was? >> absolutely. it's their turn. you know, they control the committees. they leak information. they're mad at the cia,

sometimes justifjustifiably. but rather than taking things out on this white house or the last, they're taking it out on the cia. it's an easy target. it's a target that cannot defend itself. >> and i believe that men and women that go behind the enemy lines and risk their lives every second of their lives for this country and get no credit because they can't be identified and deserve better treatment of. this the vice president will continue to talk about. until he comes on this program and explains himself. david, thank you. bob, thank you. up next, remember how john mccain spent his presidential campaign talking to this fellow whose name isn't actually joe and he isn't a plumber but they call him joe the plummer? mccain's daughter has choice words for joe. that's come willing in the "side show." we all have confidence and we all have doubt. but when the moment comes...

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welcome back to "hardball." remember joe the plumber, the mccain's working stiff? you can see him up on the stage last october with the presidential conditioned date's daughter megan. well, nine months later, megan's out there with an adversarial attitude toward the mccain campaign prop. here's what she told "out magazine." joe the plumber, is a dumb ass. he should stick to plumbing. that's her word for joe. i wonder what word she has for sarah. a topic she won't even address until deadline day arrives on the book she's planning to write. now for tonight's big number, sarah palin is touted as the biggest fund-raising asset of the republican party. and as we'll get to in the politics fix tonight, she's got the highest favorability of the leading republican candidates for 201. and here's an additional fact.

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at least nine people were killed and dozens injured in an explosion at the ritz carlton hotel in jakarta, indonesia. so far, no one claimed responsibility. authorities are treating this as a suspected terror attack. president obama greeted the naacp at the annual convention in new york. he warned that racial barriers still exist in america but a better focus on education could be the silver bullet. >> the african-american community will still fall behind in the united states and the united states will fall behind in the world unless we do a far better job than we have been doing of educating our sons and daughters. >> and some dramatic dash cam video out of atlanta shows police saving a disabled bomb after her family minivan burst into flames. the woman and her daughter suffered serious burns. but they are expected to make a recovery. that's the latest. now let's go back to "hardball."

every year there is a big governor's race, one is in virginia and one is in new jersey. here is the president campaigning today. >> we inherited an economy that was a $1.3 trillion deficit. financial regulation, nobody even thought of. and as a consequence, people can take enormous risks and have main street end up paying the cost. but you know what? that was the america of

yesterday. that was the america of yesterday. >> chuck todd is sitting across from me. he is also our political director. we have the two best guys around. start with this question. does the president miss the trail? is that why he's out there or does he just have to get the engine hot for health care? >> well, i say this, earlier this week, and went off on this the other day, you know, you can see he likes the campaign trail. he's comfortable out there. in michigan, he got fired up. he pushed back. and i can tell you this, white house aides know he's better on the stump than when he's at the rose garden. you can't be pointing your finger. you can't be dropping your gs? >> the dropping of the gs and the sleeves. >> this new jersey thing though, by the way this is one of those boxes he has to check as leader

of the democratic party. you don't do a valley with 10,000 people in july unless you don't want to be doing that rally with 17,000 people in october because you're worried that guy is not going to win. >> they're getting it out of the way. get it out of the way. >> the president's biggest worry, the test on how he's doing. the temperature on him will be if he loses jersey and virginia, if both go down and the republicans win, he'll be seen as a lame duck almost. >> you don't want to lose votes. if you win one of them, then it's a nonstory. if you lose a blue state -- >> no. >> let's get back to corzine. it's a one state thing. >> that's what i said. >> so he has to win virginia? >> i don't think jersey matters. >> don't forget, speaking of going on the campaign trail, when he was having small problems, what did he do? he left d.c. he went to florida and ft. myers and he campaigned.

and that can't help them. >> is he almost in a sense like he's got to have a lot of noise and action? i have a sense -- i was away for two weeks. i thought i missed out on what is going on. does he feel went away too long for the g-8 meeting, going to russia and the paper and all that stuff. it seemed like if not off his game, ow of it a little? >> it's the timing of the trip. he loves being overseas. he likes -- he likes being up at the america's -- the leelder of the free world. he enjoys the role. this is why when he got in that fight with hillary clinton during the primary, he felt very comfortable. you know, everybody thought he was inexperienced on farn affairs. but the timing of this trip. look, health care is a pain for them to get through congress. holding the hand on this, sharing all the politics. back and forth. and you need to be holding his hand every single day. any day that you don't, you know, he's wondering how come you're not holding my hand? what happened? and it's that hand to hand --

>> hold on. >> he says he's not helping. the president is not being helpful. he's not pointing in a direction of how to pay for this. usually expensive health care bill. he's no the talking about taxing the benefits of those with good health care plans as a way of helping the finance this. is that what they think? is that the white house thinks? i'm sorry, the people on the they'll have to pass this bill feel the president is not carrying the heavy load here. >> they're wanting some more direction from the white house, especially as far as how to pay for it. and there is hesitation among democrats to do the tax employers to get organized labor. so i think that is a nonstarter. at the same time, where does the money come from? do you do a surcharge on the rich and then open the door to a tax increase charge by the republicans. so there is concern on the hill. the most striking thing i saw today is harry reid, the leader in the senate saying that president's campaign organization, airing his campaign ads against democratic senators was a waste of money. >> you know why that is? because they're complaining that harry reid, you know -- they're

going to harry reid, get the dnc to stop running the ads. >> are they running ads that pressure the conservative democrats? >> ea >> here's what i would say. i remember a democrat from the suburbs of philly was asked by president clinton to vote for the tax bill. she voted for it. the republicans mocked her and said bye-bye. and she did get beat on the taxes to a guy that isn't the coolest politician in the world, john fox. could it be that a lot of democrats are scared? if they vote for this bill with an increase for the taxes for the rich of 4% to 5% that they're going to get nailed? >> of course they are. look, any member of congress, democrat or republican, the chief concern is always their own behind. and the fact that these modern democrats and those in the cycle like linden are going up for re-election. >> this is why everybody is

wondering why is the white house rushing? they're rushing because they know the closer this calendar moves to ten, the harder it is to corral the votes. they think they can get all the votes now because it's an easier vote to explain away and have other votes to cover it up. >> here's my concern. the biggest argument for health care reform among liberals and progressives is we're already paying for health care in the emergency room anyway. may as well do it officially and give people pride. if we're already paying for it, why don't we take the savings we're going to get from all the e.r. services people are getting right now and apply it to a national health care plan? in other words, if that was true, we're already paying for it, how can we get a big tax increase to pay for it? >> that is part of it. they'll claim that part of the money that they're funding is in that savings. the problem is you also go through all of the crazy congressional mumbo jumbo. they don't score this or that. and then that gets used as a hammer. >> i think we need better staff work.

i don't think the staff's done a great job of controlling costs. i think the president is not getting served by the hill staff and getting the cost savings. the only way to sell this to the average american is it's smarter and fwoer have the new system. most people already have health insurance. most taxpayers have health insurance. >> not only that, most voters. most voters. >> yeah, voters who show up in off year elections, by the way, have health insurance. >> the new health care plan won't go into effect for four or five years. >> but the taxes will? >> yes. >> i know. okay. let's get to the bottom line. you said something on this program the other night that you think the president will get a health care bill through by the end of the year. do you believe that still? >> 100%. >> he'll get a bill? >> a bill? >> we'll see a signing ceremony with all the people there. >> and declare victory regardless. >> and he'll be able to claim the success that lyndon johnson did with medicare. in other words, a major first year accomplishment? >> absolutely.

>> why? what would happen? >> if they didn't they set themselves up for tailure. too big of a hit. >> how do they get 60 norz? >> they have 58 democrats. if they have to, they'll wheel bob byrd in. ted kennedy will come for this vote. and part of the reason they're going after republicans still even though they can do this on a party line is by just reaching out to moderate rs, that's going to calm them down. >> any way they'll lose dianne feinstein? she's worried about the fiscal chaos in california. >> if she does it -- >> it's very tough. >> she will get primaried the next time she's up. >> she is enormously popular. >> not among the democrats. >> okay. thank you. in my base. well, thank you chuck todd and jonathan martin. i'm allowed to play favorites.

i love dianne feinstein. up next, sarah palin's resignation of alaska may not have hurt her chances to be president. but it hasn't helped either. we have the numbers.

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with michael sperkonich. joan walsh, editor in chief of salon.com. we have the latest poll. given a choice of six candidates, mit romney leads. palin at 21%. huckabee at 19%. and newt gingrich at 14. it's an interesting poll. we'll get to more participation here. but right now i'm going to gopher the polling right now. it's fascinating to see that sarah palin and romney is in the lead. let's look at the favorability ratings mock republicans. this is just among republicans. palin has quite a lead over huckabee who is down there at 59%. you see it on the chart there. and mitt romney at 56%. looks to me like palin is doing incredibly well. we'll come back in a moment. undefeated professional boxer floyd "money" mayweather

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we're back. you both had enough time to look at the charts. let's look at this thing for 201 among the preferences. michael, you first. romney at 26%, palin 21%, then

huckabee 19%. what do you make of that? >> i know it sounds surprising when you look at the strength of palin's numbers. you would expect given her resignation that she would have dipped or declined in those polling figures. she hasn't among the base. i'm not surprised. i hear from these folks as radio callers. they're the hard core base. chris, the more negatively she's portrayed nationally, the more embolden they become in their views. the real question is, can they grow that base? and the saens, no. she cannot. >> joan? >> i agree completely with michael. i mean she went out on a note of blaming the media and blaming the east coast elite even though, you know, 15 of 16 ethics complaints were filed by alaskans or constituents, chris, but as a republican, you can't go wrong by bashing the media and people believe she's a renegade. the things that make you or me or michael say she doesn't have the experience, why is she giving up this executive job with the great platform to go away and do god knows what?

well, they see why she's doing it. they believe she's been hounded off the stage and that she's better off as an outsider and she can surge back. i don't think so. i think her negative numbers with independents have grown and democrats have certainly grown. she cannot grow the party beyond this very tiny base. so it's -- >> good point, joan. here she is, makes part of the point. the favoritability among republicans, the second chart now, 72%. do you like her or not, 72% of republicans say they like her. that is the highest of any republican. michael, does it surprise you that she's the most popular among that republican world, just republicans? >> no. it does not surprise me. and don't forget, we're talking about a vastly diminished party. but if you were to see numbers that reflect republicans, democrats, and independents, it would be a far different picture. >> okay. let's take a look. here's everybody included. unfavorability, 45% -- i wish i had the favorable. i can assume it is the split of.

that 45%, joan, to make your point, is unfavorability pretty high among all voters. but in the end, all voters don't pick nominees. in the end, the party regulars. and in an off year or a year, an election which may not look too good to republicans doesn't the wilder wing of the party like mcgovern did in '72 and goldwater in '64, don't the wilder people win when it doesn't look like a winnable year? >> i think that's very likely. i think what the party really lacks at this point is a set of leaders who are really defining a very different vision, who are defining it coherently who agree on a direction and who have the wherewithal to stop sarah palin. in the absence of such people, i don't see mitt romney as the nominee. in the absence of such people, her charisma, her kind of canniness around politics, we may not know if she's bright. she is certainly bright about appealing to her base. she really has a strong

platform. as you say, they're in the wilderness now. they'll go -- there's a good chance they'll go for the wilderness candidate. i want to hear what michael has to say. >> i want to ask a pointed question. suppose you're running for governor of pennsylvania next year and you're tom corbin and you want somebody to raise the money and make noise for you, you would bring her in? >> that's an easy one. what you do is bring her in washington and have the event there. bring her into the philadelphia suburbs, hell no. >> how about deer hunter country? they have guns and like people that have guns. >> they go there. right. that's part of that 20%. there they would love her. but as you know, chris, that's not the area that sways elections in my state nor across the country. >> let's move on to this question what we watch today. i watched mr. ricci and the firefighters. they look very smart in their uniforms. i thought they looked very