right now on msnbc, new images of a soldier captured. the taliban releases video from afghanistan. we'll have reaction and analysis. assessing the president. tomorrow marking his first six months in office as he makes a big push for health care reform. how will that play into the next six months? discount travel, airfares on most u.s. routes this summer are dirt cheap, down as much as 50%. moon walk myths debunked. 40 years after man first stepped foot on the moon, some people still think it was all a fake. we have an expert's take. good morning everyone. i'm chris jansing, in for alex witt. we'll have that and the latest twist in the michael jackson investigation in moments. first, this morning the pentagon is confirming that the man you see in this individuvid american soldier who went missing in afghanistan last month. on the tape the soldier answer a capture's questions about why

he's in afghanistan. >> we were told when we got here we were supposed to do joint operations with afghan government, army and police that are here now. >> let's go live to the white house and nbc's mike zi cara. >> reporter: we know the pentagon is reporting that is a u.s. soldier. he went missing missing last september. he says he lagged behind a patrol. reports at the time indicated there was an american soldier that went missing. at that point reports said he wander wandered off the base. he did appear in this video, 28 minutes long, obviously shot by his taliban captures. he says he's scared, speaks of his family, his girlfriend that he hopes to marry. prompted by the cap tors to ask

leaders in the congress and white house to withdraw u.s. forces. it's unclure exactly where he is being held. a lot of the details including his name being held very close to the vest by the pentagon. >> thanks very much, mike. we'll have a lot more from this development story from jim miklaszewski in just a couple minutes. msnbc is the place for politics. it's a milestone for the president. tomorrow marking the first six months of the obama administration. take a look at the latest gallup daily tracking poll. 60% of the americans approve of the job president obama is doing. 33% disapprove. i'm joined live by jonathan alter senior editor and columnist for "news week." good to see you, jonathan. most politicians would be happy with 60% approval rating. barack obama has been as high as 9%. what do you read into that?

p. >> i don't think that drop is all that significant. 60% is very healthy. remember that when president bush left office, he was down in the 20s, low 30s. so this is a significant base of popularity for a president. what we don't know is whether it's enough to get health care over the finish line. it's all about health care in the next couple months. he's set a deadline. they have a new slogan they've unveiled "it's time." this is going to show us whether barack obama will have a successesful first year in office or not. >> in another poll about one in four americans say he was the go-to person for them on health care. how will this work in congress? we know there are a number of democrats, especially moderate and more conservative democrats starting to voice their concerns about this health care plan.

are we going to see him pushing more behind the scenes as we'll see him on wednesday going before the american public to push for health care. >> he's pushing hard, had a lot of town meetings, speeches around the country. there's a tremendous amount going on behind the scenes. remember, this issue has a lot of different moving parts. you have at least two different bills in the senate. a bill in the house that will look very different when it comes back from the house senate conference committee where they work out the differences between the house and senate versions which is likely to happen in september. so there's a lot of -- kind of eye-gouging at the line of scrimmage going on right now in the congress. the administration's position is to not get too involved in that right now because the various versions on the hill have to kind of reconcile themselves. then at the absolutely pivotal

moment, you will see the president getting much more involved in the details. so far on the details it's mostly been him pushing hard for a public option. the big question is will he sign a bill if it doesn't have a public option. my guess, it's speculative, would be yes, that their first priority is to have some kind of bill. they'll push for as much as they can get that's as close as they can get to what they proposed during the campaign. but they'll settle for something less. >> again, a lot of this ties into how much -- how high his popularity is. there were headlines maybe about a week or two ago about how his popularity was waning. 60%, still pretty impressive. is it more impressive given the unemployment rate? >> yeah. you've got a lot of people who are saying, look, things are not very good for my family right now. but so far they're not blaming the president. they bought his argument to give him some time, show some

patience. he said all through the beginning of this year that 2009 was basically shot and that it was going the take a long time to get out of this megs because it took a long time to get in. it seems like that argument has been bought by the american people. for how long we don't know. that's the big question. >> that's the concern, what's the timeline? how long are people going to say, okay, the fact i don't have a job or i'm worried about my job, we'll continue to blame it on the previous administration? >> yeah. that's the real question. at one point does he take full ownership of this? the republicans are trying to make him own the issue right now, trying to make this obama's economy. so last week he got a little annoyed by that. okay, if you say it's mine, i'll take it. if you want to keep on caring and griping, fine, i'll take the responsibility. he's kind of trying to have it both ways which is to say that he will assume responsibility, but he also wants to remind people that the folks who are

caring and griping are the ones, by his lights, that got us into this in the first place. >> some years ago, jonathan, you and i might have had a conversation about the big first failure of the last democratic administration, clinton administration which shockingly was health care. how much is sort of the momentum of this presidency tied to what happens over the next couple weeks? >> i say not the next couple weeks, but the next couple months. >> you're one of the people who says it's probably going to go to the end of the year, maybe. if he's going to get health care, it's not going to happen in the next two weeks in the house, three weeks in the senate? >> no. what you're going to have is -- the way the process works is, everything is getting slowed down now. if by the end of the summer you have a house version and a senate version, then they need to spend a month or even six weeks or even conceivably two months reconciling those two

versions. we all remember what we learned in high school civics about the way a bill becomes law. you have a senate version, a house version and something called the house-senate conference committee. the leadership appoints who from the house and who from the senate will go into that conference committee and reconcile these two different versions. that's going to be the critical period. that won't unfold until september or even october. >> jonathan, always great to see you. thanks for coming in early on a sunday. health care reform is the hot button issue on this morning's "meet the press." david gregory will talk with kathleen sebelius. plus a look at last week's supreme court nomination hearings. "meet the press" airing this morning on nbc. check your local listing for times in your area. we have details now on funeral and memorial plans for cbs news man walter cronkite who died friday at the age of 92.

a private funeral will be held thursday at saint bar that my's church in man lat tan. a memorial will be held next month at lincoln center. the final resting place will be the cronkite family plot in kansas city, missouri. new questions today for san francisco transit authorities over what caused two light rail trains packed with passengers to crash. witnesses say that a tram rammed into the back of a stopped train unloading passengers. 47 people were injured including the conductor of the train that caused the crash. >> his head was down. he looked like he was asleep or passed out or couldn't tell. he was not looking up. he was not slowing down or braking. no signal, nothing. you could tell he was not going to stop. >> san francisco's deputy chief says the crash is one of the largest multiple casualty incidents for that city in years.

new details this morning on a shocking crime. six people, all believed to be from the same family murdered in a two-state killing spree. tennessee authorities say five people were found dead in two neighboring homes in a rural area outside of fayetteville on saturday. a sixth body was then discovered at a business near huntsville, alabama. investigators say two of the dead are children. saturday afternoon tennessee authorities arrested 30-year-old jacob shaffer of fayetteville and they're charging him with homicide. >> one of the worst crimes lincoln county has ever seen. >> police say they believe the motive of the feelings is domestic. so far the victim's names are not being released. >> in italy the trial for american student amanda knox is now in recess until mid september. testimony for the defense this weekend wrapped the trial before a two-month break. the pause illustrates the key difference between the american and italian judicial systems, a pause that's not sitting well

with knocks's parents. nbc's john yang joins us live from london with more. john, this is a little hard for any american to understand, you're getting to a crucial part of the trial and they say, well, we're going to go on vacation for a couple months. >> reporter: that's right, chris. there are all sorts of differences in these two systems. for instance, they only sit two days a week, only have trial sessions two days a week. this trial has been going on since january. one reason it's taking so long is because they only to meet two days a week. amanda knox's parents, by the way, are divorced, but they are splitting duty being here, traveling from their homes in seattle to be here with their daughter. yesterday amanda's mother talked to nbc's chatman bell about this break in the trial. >> the defense is getting kind of squished. we had to rurry to get some things in before this really long break. and because of some canceled court cases we weren't able to get everything in. >> when the trial does resume on

september 14th, the defense will resume its case. they will have important defense witnesses to testify. it's not as if the moment of the defense has been broken or that they'll not be able to resume their momentum, recover their momentum. the judge said he expects testimony to continue into october, and then expects perhaps a verdict by early november which will be the two-year anniversary of this murder. of course, over the next two months during the break, the prosecutors, the lawyers, the judge will all get time off. but amanda knox will be where she has been since november 2007 where she hassell braeted her last two birthdays behind bars. chris? >> john yang, thank you so much for that update. we're just getting started on msnbc sunday. michael jackson's sister la toya calls his death a murder. his father joe suspects foul play. why investigators now say murder charges may be unlikely.

debunking myths about the apollo 11 moon landing 40 years ago. why does the american flag appear to be flapping in the breeze on an airless surface? that answer and more this hour on msnbc. hey, it's me, water. did you know that when you filter me at home i'm pretty much the same as i am in a plastic bottle? except that you'll save, like, $600 bucks a year. but other than that, we're pretty much the same. pur. good, clean water.

mother nature really lit up the skies over albuquerque, new mexico, overnight. this spectacular lightning display was part of the stormy weather to hit the area. no injuries or damage were reported. another spectacular sight in the sky. this one provided by nasa. on saturday, the astronauts riding high in the international space station completed the first of five space walks. astronauts working inside and outside the spacecraft successfully installed the $1 billion port that will be used

for outside experiments. the next space walk is scheduled for tomorrow. the latest now on the michael jackson investigation. california police continue to look at jackson's doctor in connection with the pop star's death. while "the l.a. times" is reporting that murder charges are unlikely to stem from the investigation. joining us from miami via skype is gerald posner from the website "the daily beast." there's been a lot of talk about arnold klein, one of michael jackson's doctors. you have new information about his past. what can you tell us about arnold klein? >> one of the things i discovered since last week, i've been reporting this for about a week trying to get to the bottom of this. [ inaudible ]

he moved to ucla where he finished his residency. i tried to get confirmation from the university on this. i called his lawyer a number of times. no matter how much i tried, they just had no comment. this is just another little part of the puzzle in arnold klein's past that is not good from him. >> you have from multiple classes he was kicked out of his first medical residency for peddling prescription drugs. >> as a matter of fact, head of the dermatology department where he was doing his residency in pennsylvania used to tell people he's now -- not only was he kicked out, but he had medication that he sells from mexico. this is a situation where we have to ask the question, if

this information is provided to authorities or the california medical board, would it have been prevented klein from becoming a doctor? i'm not sure. >> on the other hand, he was somebody who apparently was quite successful as a student, phi beta kappa? >> she was a successful student. the interesting and tragic part about klein is, he was on larry king a week ago and said i invented injectoval. if you talk to other dermatologists, he was the one who came up with the idea of injecting collagen. he did the early trials, a pioneer in the field. he is a celebrity dermatologist and has a great following. he built up a super medical career at the same time he may have crossed the line with celebrity clients like michael jackson, become a little too friendly to them and help enable them to get the druthey needed n he should have drawn the line.

that's where i think he got into trouble. >> the other big story, you had la toya and joe talking about the fact that they felt there was foul play involved. la toya even said she thought this should be murder case. then we're getting in "the l.a. times" this morning, they talked to a senior investigator who said the evidence just isn't there. in fact, it soupds more likely that it would be something that would bring someone's medical license in jeopardy. do you think that's the case? or are they trying to down play expectations as they continue this investigation? >> i think it's very smart for the l.a. authorities to downplay expectations. no question about that. i think when you talk about la toya and joe jackson, you're talking about the two least credible people in the jackson family. there are problems with credibility anyway in the jackson family. la toya sold her story to a british newspaper. she alleges murder. she has no evidence to back it up. joe jackson is saying he hasn't seen his son in years because he son didn't like him and cut him

completely out of the will. i think for the l.a. police, the question is whether they can establish the link to the diprivan. this is a drug not given by prescription. they have to find out how it got out of the hospital, into the jackson household and if it was actually put into jackson by a doctor, this would be negligent. it would certainly be manslaughter as we would think of it. the problem is this drug leaves the body within a couple of hours. and there was a long delay in getting jackson to the hospital. not only did dr. conrad murray fail to call it in for 15 minutes, but once the emergency crews arrived, they spent 45 minutes trying to intubate jackson before they got to the hospital, unless the hospital did a special test to see if it was in the body, it would have been gone. there's no evidence they did that test because they had no reason to suspect it. it's a tough case to make. >> gerald posner, thanks for being with us. appreciate it.

>> great to see you. box office magic. harry potter cast a spell over movie goers, but what is it about harry that has the muddles of all ages flocking to see this film? we'll talk about it next here on msnbc. ' (announcer) introducing new tide stain release.

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>> you're the chosen one, harry. without you we leave the fate of our world to chance. >> the multi billion dollar potter franchise is getting bigger. ticket sales topped $107 million. overseas sales, $45 million. "harry potter and the half blood prince" is the new number one movie and the record breaker. july allison is host of "tmi weekly." >> good morning. >> was this beyond expectation? >> it was. it was the biggest opening of any of the movies in the harry potter franchise. to give perspective on that.

the five other movies have actually topped the top 25, every single one has topped the box office. this is really incredible. it made $100 million in the first 24 hours. it was actually the biggest wednesday opening, right after "transformers" which made $62 million. i've been joking that the only movie that could be bigger would be "harry potter and the half naked megan fox." >> that's not coming to a theater near you. >> no, it's not. too bad, right? >> there were concerns that the books have been over for a while. no suspense in this, not like going to the new james bond. what is driving these crazy numbers? >> the fans are obsessed. daniel rad cliff is aud doshl. a lot of the critics have said this is the best of any of the movies. david gates is the director. special effects are state-of-the-art. a lot of people are watching it on i max.

they're also saying they integrated a level -- how should i put this -- hormones have come into play. there's a love story now. harry is into ginny. >> an innocent romance, nonetheless. >> it is, but the characters are growing up. daniel rad cliff turns 20 on july 23rd. this is a pretty good birthday present for him. >> not bad at all. he's already worth like $40 million or $50 million. >> he's worth a little less. when they signed him up, they had him where they wanted him. they could have asked for anything. he hasn't made as much as he could have had he been an independent movie star before this. he's doing quite nicely. >> i don't think he's going to worry about where his next meal is coming from. >> no. >> there are questions being raised about the rating of this film. harry potter previous movies were pg-13. this one is pg. some people are saying really? >> kids are going to go to this

anyway. a lot of people are comparing it to the "twilight" series. this particular movie is a bit darker than the previous harry potter movies. we still have two more movies coming up, they're splitting the last book into two. that's quite smart box office-wise. the reason is it's such a long book, they don't want anything to be left out of the film. right now they're saying november 2010. and then july 2011. >> have those been shot yet, do you know? >> they're in the midst of filming them right now. emma watson who plays hermione, he's going to brown next year. >> not sure she wants to continue acting, is that right? >> she's like, you know what? i hope people at brown don't have posters at harry potter. i don't think they will. >> i can tell you, and i mentioned this when we were coming in, i walked by one of the major theaters in new york on friday, and sold out, sold

out, sold out, sold out. >> everything. 2,500 theaters were sold out on fandango right before the wednesday opening. >> unheard of. great to see you. thanks for coming in. >> thank you. an unusual crash scene. take a look at this. a wisconsin family gets home and finds a 27-foot weaner mobile wedged between their garage and deck. you can't make this stuff up, people. the driver crashed into the home when she accidentally stepped on the gas instead of the break. the driver says she is trying to get a better view of nearby lake michigan and then she made a little mistake. a baby sea lion who decided to take a jaunt on a busy california highway. he was released into the waters of san francisco yesterday. the local marine mammal stranding center had been caring for the animal for the past

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welcome back to msnbc sunday, i'm chris jansing. let's get right to the latest details on disturbing video that appeared on a taliban website on saturday. it shows the u.s. soldier who we now know from the pentagon is being held captive at an unknown location in afghanistan. for the latest, i'm joined live by jim miklaszewski. what can you tell us about this video? >> reporter: this is the first confirmation that this soldier who mysteriously disappeared from his forward operating base in eastern afghanistan three weeks ago is, in fact, alive and in custody. the good news is on the tape he appears to be in relatively good

shape, out of his army uniform, wearing traditional taliban dress. what's disturbing, as he says on the tape, he's scared he will not be able to go home. the soldier then makes a plea to bring all american forces home. but he's clearly under duress, chris. on the video itself, you can hear his captors in the background prompting him about what to say. >> yes. to my fellow americans, my loved ones over here, who know what it's like to miss them, you have the power to make our government bring them home. please, please bring us home so that we can be back where we belong and not over here wasting our time and our lives. >> usually when the taliban has

taken western hostage ins the past, they've quickly demanded cash ransome or release of taliban business ners. as of now, we're not releasing the soldier's name at the request of the family and u.s. military over concerns for his safety, chris. >> typically, mick, they don't like to give details out. obviously their hand was forced by this video. they're trying to find out what they can do to make sure he gets back safe and sound, right? >> that's exactly right. there's still confusion about exactly who is holding him. they're pretty sure that it may be the hakani network, one of the afghanistan taliban networks. they don't know exactly where. they still believe he may be somewhere in the eastern reaches of afghanistan and an intensive manhunt is under way today. >> jim miklaszewski, always good to see you. thanks so much. >> okay, chris. a political heavyweight speaking out this morning in spup port of health care reform.

senator ted kennedy calls it the cause of his life. the massachusetts senator has written a letter being published in news week magazine that describes the legislative and personal battles he has had with health care, including his current battle with brain cancer. he writes, quote, quality care shouldn't depend on your financial resources or the type of job you have or the medical condition you face. every american should be able to get the same treatment that u.s. senators are entitled to. you can read the entire article in the current edition of "newsweek." president obama will make possibly his biggest pitch yet for health care reform this week. on wednesday the president will hold a prime time news conference urging house and senate flew votes before lawmakers leave for their august breaks. let's bring in our political panel to weigh in. good sunday morning to you, gentlemen. how are you doing? >> good morning. >> good, thanks. >> chris, i think it's fair to

say there are questions being raised, certainly the fact that the president is going on television on wednesday is a sign that he feels like he needs to make a push for health care reform. what does he have to say to convince the american people and members of his own party in some cases that this is what needs to be done? >> i think the message and i think what he needs to focus on is the urgency of needing to get something done, that this is health care reform that's actually going to help reduce costs, make it more affordable for all americans, expand coverage to those that are uninsured, and that the political -- basically what i think he's going to try to do is keep pushing this political momentum in favor of reform. there's obviously some pushback from democrats and most of the republicans. that's to be expected through the legislative process. i think if the president starts focusing and really pressuring congress to get this done, maybe not before the august recess, but definitely by the fall, my

guess is we're going to get some kind of legislation passed some time in september or early october. >> brad, i also think it's fair to say, and the polls bear this out, the majority of the american people think there need to be changes in health care in america, but in terms of the pushback and changes that need to be made in what's being proposed right now, what do you think has to happen for this bill to get through? >> well, i don't think the bill is going to get through. you just heard chris concede now ha the august recess is not where this is going to happen, which is originally what the president had demanded from the democrats. it's not that the republicans who are holding things up. it's max baucus, head of the finance committee. he says the president is not being helpful and the head of the cbo, congressional budget office, who is a democratic pick says this is going to escalate our deficit and add to our annual budget. so what has to happen, chris, in my opinion, for there to be bipartisan support, is fix that which is broken.

the government controls medicare and medicaid. it's ripe with mismanagement, fraud and abuse. fix that first. cap costs, tie it to inflation and let's do it as we go to see where we're improving health care in america and not have often i don't versal change with incompetent and inefficient health care for all americans. >> the cbo is what brad brought up, $239 billion is what they'll say will add to the deficit over the next ten years. at the same time the president gives his weekly internet address. he says i'm not going to sign anything that isn't deficit neutral. is there a fwig disconnect so far? can that gap which is pretty significant, be bridged? >> to be frank about it, the cbo director had definitely made things a little more difficult partly because of how they score it. they don't really have -- the cbo does not have a measure for cost savings. a significant piece of this legislation and what i think the democrats have been focusing on

is making health care more efficient both in its delivery and its usage. it is -- there is no measure for that for the cbo to measure how much we're going to save which complicates this and makes it seem more expensive than it is. i think what you're going to see democrats and the president talk about is, listen, this is real and significant savings. republicans, you know, it's nice to hear brad talk about health care. they didn't really talk about it for eight years under the bush administration. the reality is they don't want health care reform at all. they had their opportunity to do it and didn't do it. >> no, no, chris. >> you'll see them continue to hammer this argument. >> the bush administration tried to do something, stopped by the congress. the congress didn't want us to reform medicare and medicaid. that's the -- the cost savings now which you claim is going to help us get to universal health care. the bottom line is the government is already in the health care business, has been for 40 years, wrought with mismanagement and abuse.

>> the republicans have fought tooth and nail against health care reform. ef. >> we're don't want a public option. >> they don't want to embrace the fact of what needs to be done in order to help reduce cost and expand coverage. it's an ideological dispute. i get it. it's not going to solve the problem. >> you're not going to get what you want. >> chris, brad, i'm sure we'll have this discussion again. as we see some of the details come out, it will be a while. thanks, guys, we appreciate it. former vice president dan quayle is sharing his opinion of president obama six months after he took office. quayle gives himself high marks with surrounding himself with quality advisors. the former vp telling the associated press he thinks president obama's biggest challenge will be to tame the left wing of the democratic party on spending issues. if if you think it's too expensive to travel in these tough economic times, think

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controlled their diabetes with new nutrisystem d. backed by 35 years of research and low glycemic index science nutrisystem d works. satisfaction guaranteed or your money back! new! nutrisystem d. lose weight. live better. call or click today. welcome back to msnbc. i'm chris jansing. a case of swine flu making headlines this morning. a group of 65 students from medford, oregon, quarantined at a hotel in beijing because one of them tested positive for swine flu. school officials say the student was briefly hospitalized but is doing better now. secretary of state hillary clinton is visiting mumbai and new delhi today, the start of a three-day visit to india. clinton urged india to do more to tackle terrorism and global warming. she's the most senior obama

administration official to visit india. you can be the new owner of the infamous water gate hotel. the bank holding the loan is putting the foreclosed property up for auction. that's where burglars slept before they broke into the adjoining office complex in 1972 setting down the scandal that brought down president nixon. tomorrow nasa marks the 40th anniversary of man walking on the moon. july 20th, 1969, and neal armstrong famously announced "one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind." even today some believe that landing actually never took place, that it happened in a hollywood studio or in the arizona desert. the myths surrounding the moon walk are the subject of a new article. nbc space consultant james oburg joins us via skype to take a look at some of the moon landing's myths. good morning.

>> good morning. >> we have the article in "national geographic" magazine. why do you think the myths have persisted all these years? >> first of all, it's hard to believe we can go to the moon. after all, it's been a -- a howling for the moon has been a metaphor for centuries. people couldn't believe it. a lot of people couldn't. also, it's not -- the pictures really do look weird. there are pictures there that show shadows that look weird because it's being taken in a different world, unearth like. we've had hundreds of millions of years on earth to work on our perceptional processes here on earth. on the moon a lot of that is different or even missing. >> let's show some of the pictures if we can. this is one of the most popular ones. this is not the picture that i was actually looking for. there's one with a flag in it. there it is. it looks like the flag is

blowing in the wind. there's no wind on the moon. so people say this has got to be a hoax. >> that does look weird. what usually you show in that picture is you cut away from the fact that the astronauts are pounding the pole to the ground and shaking the suspension arm which sticks out from the pole back and forth. the flag goes back and forth and doesn't damp out because there's no air. you expect if that were a flag hanging from a pole on earth, the air would damp it out and make it still within seconds. it doesn't on the moon because the moon is not the earth. >> take a look at this next picture, one of these iconic photographs from that moon landing, a picture of neal a armstrong. you can see buzz aldrin and the lunar module reflected in the space mask. people say who took a picture then? maybe there was a third person on the moon or we never went to the moon at all. >> in the picture you can see

more carefully armstrong's got the camera mounted on his chest. he can look down, do the settings. it's daylight. he's making the settings so far, 1/250th of a second. he's not going to get any stars. that kind of speed, you never see stars at all. there's no mystery there. what's funnily about these pictures of armstrong and others standing on the moon casting shadows, even when you're looking at the down-sun side of them, they're illuminated, but their shadow is not. people are saying where is the back lighting coming from? it's coming off the ground and you can prove that. you can do this at home because the shadow he cast on the lunar surface is pitch black because the light bouncing back onto his space suit from the surface doesn't bounce back into his shadow. look at these pictures, do these models at home. these are a great experiment kids can do in school in junior

high to show principles of science, make this a teachable moment. >> we only have a couple seconds left. i want to show the footprint again. a lot of doubters claim the only way you can make an imprint this good is with wet or muddy dirt. what's the real story of this footprint? >> the dust on the moon is not like dust on earth. in the vacuum, billions of years in a vacuum, it's like a box of legos, they're sharp edged. they will hold their shape and get tougher and tougher to backpound into the deeper you get. it's unearthly. and that's puzzled many people and given reason to doubt it. >> always fun talking to you, jim. what are you doing for the anniversary? >> taking the kids to the beach. >> i like that. >> make footprints in the sand on the beach. >> jim oberg. we appreciate it. carla bruni made her american stage debut in honor of nelson mandela's 91st birthday,

part of a star studded tribute in new york city last night. president nicholas sarkozy was in the audience cheering her on. among the others, stevie wonder, gloria gain nor and cyndi lauper. mandela was not able to attend the concert on doctor's orders. i'm bill caras. we're watching storms in florida. saturday wasn't the best. your sunday forecast is going to be similar in orlando, all the way up to daytona beach. rest of the country is looking great. new york to boston, d.c. is nice. still cooler than we'd like in chicago, 72. the heat continues out west. have a great weekend. hey bets, can i borrow a quarter?

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this wednesday president obama takes his pitch for health care reform to a new audience. this comes as questions are being raced even by democrats for health care reform and its cost. >> the number we keep throwing around is the new number.

reporters say they haven't factored in how much will be saved. are these numbers at all possible to track down in any real way? >> i was talking to andrew mitchell earlier this week, i think there has never been in the history of government programs an accurate ten-year forecast where we would be with respect to cost and where we would be with respect to the size of the deficit. in 1965 efs maefted by the house ways and means committee was estimated to cost $12 billion, it cost $107 billion. they were off by a fact of nine. whenever you take a look at long-run estimates, i tend to think they'll undershoot. being budget neutral is not something that comes natural in washington. >> if a concerned american citizen who wants health care reform but listening to what the president says which is that he wants this to be deficit neutral, is there any way to figure out if this were a good

bill or not? >> if it were solely focused on cost containment and there were no additional programs that come in the form of an entitlement or public option that will cost taxpayers money, you could assume that, yes, it would be deficit neutral. that doesn't seem to be the case. there do seem to be programs in here that would increase coverage at the government's -- on the government's dime or the taxpayer's dime, if you will. typically that would not lead one to believe that it would be deficit or budget neutral over the long run. >> what about the concern that's been raised by most republicans i've heard talk about this, that it's going to really be a drag on small business? >> if you have a limited liability corporation, and a lot of doctors do, a lot of individuals do, i do. you have a one, two, three, four employees and if you should make a certain amount of money, you get a sir tax of one, two or up to four or five percent. when you include the rollback,

there will be a group of people who may pay as much as 55% or 60% in taxes by all that is said and done. that could also not just affect individuals but could hold back economic growth at a time when we can afford tax hikes the least. i don't mean that as a political argument. right now the economy is recovering, but it is still rather fragile. we're spending a lot of money on stimulus. there's the risk we offset it by using higher taxes to fund some of these programs. >> one of the questions i hear from a lot of people, and they often ask me this question, isn't it true that most other western industrialized nations find a way to take care of their people, that this is not a question. in fact, i have american friends who have moved abroad, lived there for years and they have incredible health care plans where they live, for example, in france. >> indeed. you also have to accept that there are trade-offs that go with that. in europe there's a joke about whether you work to live or live to work. obviously between europe and the

united states there are two varying perceptions of how one wants to live life. so their work hours are average 35 a week. hours is 40 or more. >> when is the last time you worked 40 hours in a week? >> when i was in college probably. i don't disagree that the public option can be a good one and there are certain distortions in the system. we have an insurance crisis clearly in the united states. there are uncovered people. if you break out the numbers, however, and look at those who aren't covered, if children were covered under the s chip program which president clinton put in place many years ago and obama recently enhanced. you can get 12 to 20 million of the 46 million uninsured covered under existing programs. 5.6 million of the people as erin burnett shows on cnbc are immigrants. they're part of the component here. if you take out special factors, if you will, the number of uninsured by some is estimated

to be as small as 8.8 million, purely unable to obtain coverage as opposed to the other groups i just described. that's a whole different proposition. so one asks do you have to go very large scale in order to solve the insurance problem? or can you target those 8.8 million people who simply don't have access to health care and focus on them. it's a much smaller, more manageable program. >> you really pointed out some of the critical issues here. al we'll hear a lot more about this. i love having you in, ron. thanks so much, appreciate it. video posted on the internet of an american soldier captured by the taliban. retired army colonel jack jake ors will be here to talk about what we can learn from this video. you're watching msnbc. everybody's talking about the economic tsunami,

what does that mean to a surfing ceo? ummmm, tsunami in ah...