republican in lindsay graham to that vote. also tomorrow president obama returns to the subject of health care when he holds a virtual town hall on the subject. it's going to be in partnership with the aarp. and then finally vice president biden is hitting the road to promote the stimulus at an event in philadelphia with law enforcement. basically singling out a lot of money in the stimulus that was earmarked towards law enforcement. he'll be with attorney general eric holder. >> mark, i know you and the first read team honed in on senator john mccain and how his vote might be very telling. give us a little more into the picture that we might see with john mccain on sotomayor. >> well, one thing to note about john mccain is he's up for re-election in 2010. he already has a primary challenger from a person who was one of the founders of the minutemen. immigration will be a very, very big issue issue. in arizona there's a large hispanic population.

does he vote for her, or does he oppose her and try to protect himself in a tough primary? >> donny was saying earlier he thinks the president needs to pull back a little bit and not be such a face of health care reform. >> being the face but not too much. >> not too much the face of what we're seeing. >> exactly. last week obviously didn't work that well for the administration. sometimes they're doing better when they're multitasking on so many different issues, the sonia sotomayor is one example where it keeps the republicans all these different moveing targets. the opposition has been able to hone in on one target on health care. we'll see if they turn to more issues this week and next. >> thank you very much. great talking to you. check out first read first thing every morning. it's updated throughout the day so check back often. logon to firstread.msnbc.com. so, donny, how did you like inquiyour first day. >> i have a great sparring

partner. >> that's it for the big picture for today. i'm tamron hall. >> i'm donny deutsch. "hardball" with chris matthews starts right now. >> you were great. sarah palin declares war. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in new york. leading off tonight, the long good-bye. we don't know what sarah palin's going to do the next couple of years, but if yesterday's any indication, she's not going to hold her tongue. as we know, palin insists she's quitting her job so she can better fight for alaska. and in her good-bye speech yesterday, she took on -- well, she took off after what she called partisan operatives, hollywood starlets, and most of all, the media. >> democracy depends on you, and that is why, that's why our troops are willing to die for

you. so how about in honor of the american soldier, you quit making things up. >> well, look at what's next for sarah palin in just a minute. plus, this bud's for you. we now know that president obama, henry louis gates, and sergeant james crowley will meet at the white house for one of the most celebrated beers in the history of diplomacy sometime this week. we also know we now have that 911 call that started this case on tape. here is one reason that phony controversy over barack obama's citizenship won't go away. respectable, if you will, elected office-holding republicans won't let it die. look what happened when a reporter for "the huffington post" asked republicans on capitol hill whether they personally believe barack obama is an american. >> what do you believe personally? >> i'd like to see the documents. >> so you're kind of afraid of

the lunatic fringe base. what do you personally live though? do you think there's a question here? >> i think there are questions. we'll have to see. >> i think there are questions. i just don't know what the republican hope to gain from peddling this nonsense. more on this so-called birther movement later in "hardball." plus, senator jim bunting, that great phillies pitcher, but also a detroit tigers pitcher, he was certainly in the hall of fame. he threw no-haitters in both leagues. he's not going to run for another term. we'll have more on that in "the politics fix." what are sarah palin's chances of actually winning the republican presidential nomination come 2012? well, the oddsmakers are speaking on that. we'll have those numbers for you in a the haul "sideshow." we begin with sarah palin's first day as alaska's ex governor. norah, it seems like if you go

through this reading it, she's picked out three enemies, and they're all cities, new york, washington, the government, and l.a., hollywood. it seems like a nasty attack plan she's got under way. what do you make of it? >> yeah, this was a really fiery farewell speech and she's angry and she used this speech not only to defend the time that she spent in office, but also to take some parting shots. i mean, to the media, she said you quit making things up. she talked about hollywood starlets, those anti-second amendment people, and she said we hear in alaska, we eat, therefore, we hunt. this was a defensive speech in many way. she also said she plans to protect the interests of the state like a grizzly guards her cubs. but she didn't say what or how she plans to do that, chris, and that's really still the big question mark, and that's how this woman operates. through mystery. we don't know what's next of her. she likes surprises.

she likes stunning people, and she likes throwing red meat out to the crowd and that's exactly what she did to thousands of people here in fairbanks. >> well, you said she was mad. is that a pose or is she actually mad and what about? >> no, i think she's angry. i think she's been treated unfairly. she sees she's got the lowest approval ratings of her career. so she is angry. she wants to be free from all these ethics complaints that are dogging her. but i think what was most remarkable, the thing i noticed, what's new, is she's grown more insular. she's distrustful i think of even her own staff. she doesn't communicate with her own press aides. she didn't even know she was in camper coming up her with her kids. her primary means of communication is via twitter. she is communicating with the world and even her own staff via twilter and her blackberry that she is rv'ing up here. i don't think you can run a presidential campaign or any business by not informing your staff or people you work with about how you plan to operate.

it suggests she's distrustful and i think maybe that she doesn't know what to do next. but i reported this weekend, chris, she's raised over $1 million for her political action committee. she has more than 13,000 people who have made donations to her political action committee. with almost no solicitation because there's not an organization set up, so group trying to solicit. she's significant. >> great reporting up in fairbanks, alaska. pat baugh canon is an msnbc political analyst and democratic strategist karen finney is communications director for a long time with the dnc. patrick, it looks to me like spaim is looking at the pat buchanan playbook. she wants to do what you did. she's had a very short public career in elected office, but that doesn't seem to mind. peep don't seem to mind that. can she run basically as a commentator? as a person who doesn't like new york, doesn't like the media, doesn't like washington, doesn't like the government, doesn't like l.a., hollywood, can you

run a completely negative rhetorical campaign basically? >> well, if you're the out party and let's say she's out there in 2010 raising money for the party at state conventions, going in for candidates who invite her in, yeah, the red meat, she rallies the faithful, she rattles the cages of the immediate yand a the liberals like no one else can do, yes, you can do that in an off-year campaign. but if you're running for president of the united states, you got to have an agenda in foreign poi si and an agenda in trade policy and an agenda in economic policy. right now if you're talking 2010, yeah, she's on the right course. you get yourself a good rally speech and use it like nixon did in 1966. he wasn't out there boring the country with one-hour press conferences on health care. >> well, let's take a look. here she is about who she said is tearing down our country. here is sarah palin as you put it, pat, throwing out the red meat. >> we are facing tough

challenges in america with some seeming to just be hell bent maybe on tearing down our nation. perpetuating some pessimism and suggesting american apologetics. >> well, i don't know, karen, it seems to work the way she raised her voice and does that thing where it's a victimization. nothing like righteous indignation. it always seems to work. can she pull it off and become a national figure now? >> the ironic thing about that speech is i'm not exactly sure what she was talking about. she seemed to sort of make up this sort of, you know, narrative of sarah palin against these enemies, but i think there's a political tactic here and i think that the more she is under siege or under attack, of course she's going to be raising money. i was listening to norah o'donnell talk about the $1 million she's raising. i think the more she's attacked, the more she raises money, the more she also -- that red meat inflames the base of the party. that's that karl rove anger point strategy, and that helps her galvanize her base of support. by doing that, she can really

have some choices about what she does next in the party because she's got money and she's got support. >> can you think of something the national media has reported about her that's not true? she talks about how our fighting forces overseas, how we have to do them the favor or the honor of not telling bad stories about her. what has been said that's not true by the media about sarah palin? what is she talking about? >> well, i don't know. when it started off, i don't know where the source was, the allegation was floating all over the place reported by the media that bristol's child -- rather, the child she was born with with downs syndrome was actually bristol palin's. it was a horrible, ugly thing. i think that's wounded her. >> who was reporting that in the media? "the new york times," "the washington post," the networks? i never heard anybody report that. >> mike barnicle quite frankly was one of the fellows telling me about it when we were out there in denver. but, chris, she can answer that thing. let me tell you, you and me and

all of news the media, this obsession with sarah palin is what is boosting her. it's raising money for her. it's why people love her. they love her for the enemy she has made and this obsession -- >> no, no. i only say positive things about her. i find her the only interesting republican right now, pat. i find her more interesting than your mitt romney, to be honest about it. i find him talking about, i don't know, aluminum siding would be more interesting. >> you say she's tearing down, all she's doing is running negative. i think she's going to run a campaign on conservative principles and ideas and go after those who are assaulting them. >> it just sounds like a campaign. she's going after the immediate yashtion after the government, after hollywood. >> let's call it what it is. it's a classic strategy. >> after her speech on the media, it was an enormous success. n nixon was -- >> your thought. pat is patting himself on the back here again which is fair

enough on this show. he wrote the damn speech. that's why he's saying it is great. >> this is the classic republican triumvirate of hollywood and the media, you know, the big bad wolves of the left. let's be clear about that is. again, i don't think we know what sarah palin is going to do. i think if she's smart she will, again, continue to raise money, galvanize support, put a good team around her that she trusts because that's obviously critical. she could end up being another pat buchanan or a rush limbaugh of the party. i think she could take that role. make money and be someone who could be a critic both outside and inside or she could run for office, but i do think -- >> pat gave up the money to run. let's get that straight. pat gave up money to run. i'm not going to hold that against him. he was -- >> i think she's going to have to be a little more disciplined. as a woman i have to tell you, it dispoints me to hear her kind of play the victim card. as a political strategist ibl understand the strategy.

as a woman i'd like to hear her back off from that and as pat was saying let's talk about the issues. >> here she is going after hollywood and defending guns. here he is. . >> you're going to see anti-hunting, anti-second amendment circuses from hollywood, and here is how they do it. they use these delicate, tiny, very talented celebrity starlets. they use alaska as a fund-raising tool for their anti-second amendment causes. stand strong and remind them patriots will protect our individual guaranteed right to bear arms, and by the way, by the way, hod needs to know we eat. therefore, we hunt. >> what's this about shooting wolfs from helicopters or whatever? i don't know if that's necessary for survival.

>> come on, chris. >> who is she talking about there, pat? >> she kills her own food and she's talking about hollywood and, look, you got 58 votes in the united states senate to let everybody carry a concealed weapon across state lines. all these democrats -- chris, she's touching the base and much more than the base here, and you know it. look at the gun thing. the gunners have defeated the liberals horse, foot, and dra goons. >> what language is he speaking there. you go into another language sometimes. all i know is she's hitting all the e roge news zones of victimhood. she they're coming to get us in black helicopters. >> she got you going. >> i think people are more busy talking about health care reform than heading up to alaska and taking away anybody's guns. >> health care reform is going down the tubes because people are against it like her. >> i don't think it's going down the tubes. >> pat, can i appear to your

well-read knowledge of american history? who is winning the argument right now, the second amendment supporters or the critics of it? clearly, you must agree, the second amendment forces are winning heavily. they got the supreme court on their side now. it's an individual right. they're on the road to victory here, aren't they? they're not in retreat. come on. >> they were on the road to victory, but once you got the guy beat, you chase him, chris, and make him retreat and retreat and retreat. and she rallies the troops with that. she rallies the troops. you can see t. >> i can't imagine the majority of american people are going to bed at night think being that when they're worried about their health insurance, their jobs, their kids. just in terms of what's top of mind, she's created this false enemy -- >> we're out of time. this is a great american argument. america is divided. i'm not sure she's going to unite the country.

pat you would even agree -- >> she's not a uniter. i think we can agree on that. coming up, president obama is moving forward with plans to have a beer -- i love these moments, at the white house this week with henry louis gates and sergeant crowley. sergeant crowley who arrested him. meanwhile, new details are beginning to emerge about what actually happened during this arrest situation. we'll have the latest on the gates case there. has been some green sprouts of information coming up about that one. you're watching "hardball." it's coming up here in a minute, the gates case, and it's not closed. we'll be right back. has the fastest serve in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed. ...on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't. so i can book travel plans faster, check my account balances faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than andy roddick. (announcer) "switch to the nations fastest 3g network"

"and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free". chocolatey taste in 60 calories? ♪ ♪ oh, so delicious who cares? jell-o sugar free pudding. every diet needs a little wiggle room. coming up, were some right wing members of congress so dangerously beholden to the birther movement that they're afraid to say that barack obama is an american? why do they continue to ignore the piles of evidence that president obama was born in the usa? we'll show you that, because the evidence keeps piling up. they want a fight on this one. "hardball" returns after this.

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welcome back to "hardball." today audio from of that 911 call on the gates arrest were released. let's listen to that. >> i don't know what's happening. i just had an older woman standing here and she had noticed two gentlemen trying to get in a house at that number, 17, and they kind of barged in and they broke the screen door and finally got in. and when i had looked, i went further -- closer to the house a little bit after the gentlemen were already in the house. i noticed two suitcases. so i'm not sure if these are two individuals who actually work there -- i mean who live there. >> you think they might have been breaking in? >> i don't know because i have no idea. >> police also released recordings of the police radio transitions from the scene. >> gentleman says he resides here, uncooperative, but keep the cars coming. >> keep the cars coming. where does the discussion on race in america stand now? joining me is eugene robinson washington post pulitzer prize

winning column and jonathan capehart who writes editorials for "the washington post" as well. i know i'm going to learn something here so i will leave this pretty wide open to you. there seems to be some miscommunication with occurred during the midst of this mayhem. apparently officer crowley in his police report said the professor said when asked to come outside, i'll speak with your mama outside. now, this is the way he recorded this. i wonder whether some projection here about two or three degrees. he thought this was what a black fellow whoo say, this is what a white guy thought a black guy would say. he didn't say this. it's a little humorous because i have to find humor in this horrible american situation. what do you make of that, eugene? is it possible, eugene, that this fire fight began over one guy projecting and another guy seeing somebody projecting and he didn't like the sound of it. >> i cannot imagine in this universe skip gates saying i'll speak with your mama outside.

this is one of the preeminent academics in america. you know, one of the most prominent professors at our nation's most prestigious university at the top of his profession, at the top of his game. you know, he rolls with kings and queens and nobel prize winners. >> i know. i wonder why an irish american would think i have to some some jocularity in this for at least one minute in our conversation. do you think he projected what he thought was street talk, jive talk, whatever you want to call it? in the major league, the one thing you can't do is mention the other fellow's mama. do you think this is one guy projecting attitude that wasn't there or what? i don't know. >> you know, i can't get into the mind of sergeant crowley and i can't get into the mind of professor gates in that situation, and i think what we're seeing here from these 911 tapes that you just played from the person who reported what she

thought was a burglary to sergeant crowley's comment about keep the cars coming to, you know, who said what and when, we've seen this before where we have these incidents that are a whole lot more complicated than what they might seem, the black and white issue that we thought at first. so i think to try to get into sergeant crowley's mind about whether, you know, he was projecting yo mama talk is -- >> before i get back to gene, here he is showing he is just as hard-nosed about this as the professor. you talk about two guys going to their corners and basically saying i'm right, he's wrong. here he is again saying he's right. >> i didn't do anything wrong. i think that would be setting the wrong example for police officers around the country to apologize for something that i didn't do for the sake of appeasing somebody who acted very inappropriately, who made rude comments to me, who made

rude comments about my mother. it's just not something that is going to happen. >> there you have it, gene. he said he went after my mother. i mean, this is street corner. >> i just -- again, that does not ring plausible to me, but, you know, i just find this whole thing really, really fascinating, and this extra element -- you know, skip gates is a big cheese. he's an important guy, and i lived in cambridge for a year, and, you know, meeting a famous harvard professor who is arrogant is like meeting a famous basketball player who is tall, right? i mean, it's not exactly a surprise. so, you know, if you believe the police report, aside from the yo mama thing, which i don't believe, but if you believe the rest of the police report, you have professor gates acting in a high-handed manner confronting sergeant crowley, and i find this -- i find this aspect of it fascinating because, of course, that's the way big cheeses act.

that's the way they've acted since time immemorial, there are african-americans and hispanics who have become big cheeses. >> i don't know than put this together from your generation. gene and i are the same generation. throw on the town versus gown thing. the attitude of most harvard kids i'm told is they're classwise above the local -- certainly the campus police. tell us about this attitude. >> well, not having gone to harvard. >> neither me nor you. >> having gone to the harvard of the midwest, carlton college, anyway, i think what we're seeing here as i said before, this is a much more complicated story. it's black and white. it's town versus gown. it's high -- as gene just said, you know, you've got the high-handed professor versus the cop on the beat, if you will. i think to speak to the generational issue here, i think perhaps what we're seeing is

professor gates is from the generation that lived through jim crow and lives through the beginning of trying to write the wrongs during the '60s and '70s. my generation is the generation that's had a different experience when it comes to race and race in america, not to say that, you know, race and race issues have been solved, but our experience is perhaps generally speaking a little bit better than say professor gates' experience. so there could be some of that at work here. but i think for us to know for sure, all of these things, is if we keep talking about what about -- how we're feeling and what we think about these things, especially when new noftion comes to light. i want to point out, chris, the tape you showed of sergeant crowley came a couple days after the story broke. have you noticed that since president obama made his surprise visit to the white house briefing room on friday,

that the tone and the rhetoric has changed completely. the tempers have cooled and now we're looking at some point this week perhaps the three men coming together at the white house for a beer to talk. and i think that that was very, very important. >> let me ask you, gene, about this beer. what do you make of it? is this going to be like the beer summit? what are we going to call this thing? >> i hope no one brings up anybody's mother, first of all. i hope nobody goes there. >> i don't think so. >> yeah, no, look, it's going to be at the white house with the president. you know, everybody is going to be nice and everybody -- and while neither man might be in the mood for a formal apology, i think they'll find some sort of common ground and move on from there. but, you know, i do find this episode just really fascinating because there's so much that is unknowable by us, yet there's a lot to talk about and when we talk about it, we're talking

about our own feelings and our own prejudices and our own history, our own experience of race, and so, you know, we keep waiting for this kind of structured, big national conversation about race. i think the way it actually happens is incident by incident, and maybe we'll learn something out of this. >> well, maybe we should all just try to get along a little better. i mean, i think from my perspective -- >> you and rodney king. >> i heard you have never been stopped by a policeman, you've never had a situation like this in your whole life. >> that is true. >> i appreciate that. that's good news. that's good news. eugene robinson, jonathan capehart. up next does hillary clinton have her eye on other white house run. people keep asking, and what are sarah palin's odds of becoming the republican nominee. we'll give you the betting odds out of dublin. stick around for the "sideshow." you're watching "hardball." natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel, yet a lot of natural gas has impurities like co2 in it.

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back to "hardball." time for the "sideshow." first up, the question de rigueur. she keeps getting hit with it. you know who and you know the question. the who is secretary of state hillary clinton. the question is whether she's thinking about whether she's thinking of some day running for president. here is her answer on "meet the press." >> the answer is no. >> but you didn't say never. >> i say no, never, not at all. i don't know what else to say. >> are you saying you wouldn't entertain another run? >> i have absolutely no belief in my mind that that is going to happen, that i have any interest in it happening. >> i think we all have our own personal sense of what she's thinking about the long run politically. let's agree there's no reason in the world for her, given her current position, to share what she's thinking. next up, a political battle in concord, a kiosk owner down in concord, north carolina, says

that his lease at a shopping mall is not being renewed because of the right wing propaganda he sells. you know, bumper stickers such as "impeach obama" and "al qaeda's two favorite somedays 9/11/01 ". some supporters are saying they'll boycott the mall. finally a loud applause to my friend lance armstrong coming back from a three-year retirement. the cancer surviving american finished a very respectable third place in the tour de france yesterday. that's a hell of a feat and i can't wait for him to go for the roses next year. here is lance on "hardball" a while back talking about health care reform. do you think this country is on the verge of a major change on how we finance health care. >> i'm not trying to be political. everybody deserves health care, period, and i actually do agree with that. great, new york city, if you had

an investment banker in midtown manhattan who had advanced cancer, he'd have the best care in the world. two miles north of there, the slums of harlem, they'd probably die. that's an issue. that's an issue of access and that's a disparity that we shouldn't put up with. >> it's not just about the bike, obviously. now for tonight's big number. now that sarah palin is no longer governor of alaska, will she be setting the groundwork now for a presidential run? how are her chances? according to the online traders at dublin based online.com, her chances are 16%. that's 1 in 6. she's in second place. she's just behind two people, mitt romney and bobby jindal. 16%. one chance in six odds of winning the big republican nomination in 2012. i'd say the odds are better than that. maybe i should make the bet. that's our big number tonight. coming up, they just don't go away. the birthers, those right wing

nuts, is that too cruel? who think barack obama isn't an american. now they're getting support from some republicans in congress like, well, senator james imhof of oklahoma who says he won't discourage the birthers and they may have a point. why are elected officials in this country playing to the sleaze bags? that's coming up next. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. (announcer) gillette fusion's indicator strip fades to white when it may be time to change. fresh blade. better shave.

now that's progressive. call or click today. i'm julia boorstin with your cnbc market wrap. stocks clawed their way back into positive territory late today led by solid gains in the financial sector. the dow jones industrials added 15 points. the s&p 500 is up almost 3 points. the nasdaq added number 2 points. encouraging new homes sales report was behind some of today's biggest gains. sale of new homes up 11% in

june. inventories of unsold homes are at their lowest levels since 1998. that news led to gains in home builders and the financial sector. bank of america finished up more than 4.5%. investors were worried about the impact of a record $200 billion of government debt. traders are seeing signs of recovery and are worried these auctions to lead to tightening. that's it for cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." well, will republicans be blasted from questions from the birth crowd when they go home next month? what will they say to their constituents? will they shout them down as

nuts. mike stark took a camera to capitol hill to get some questions answered. check out, here is his blog. >> what do you believe personally? >> i'd like to see the documents. >> so you're kind of afraid of this lunatic fringe base? it's certainly being looked at. what do you personally believe though? do you think there's a question here? >> i think there are questions. >> you do believe there are questions. that's good enough. thank you. >> i'm asking republicans if they believe barack obama was born in the united states. it doesn't matter to you? >> that's a question he needs to answer, not me. >> you can tell me what you think. you can tell me what you think. do you think he was? >> he said he was so i believe he was. >> "newsweek's" howard fineman is an msnbc political analyst and ken vogel is with the politico. why do republicans stutter when asked if barack obama is a republican -- i'm sorry, if he's american? >> no, well they're stuttering

because, as you pointed out in the introduction, chris, their nightmare is to go back home for the august recess where they would like to spend the time attacking barack obama's health care plan and other things and have to spend all their time at the meetings talking about whether barack obama has a legitimate birth certificate or not. the white house claims they think the story is beneath them. they think it's an outrage but when robert gibbs was asked about it at the briefing today, which i attended, he lamented it but he answered it, so i think the white house is sort of looking forward to the prospect of the republicans having to deal with this when they go home. >> here is gibbs right now. let's listen to him. >> and i almost hate to indulge in such an august setting as the white house -- and i mean this in seriousness, the white house briefing room discussing the made-up, fictional nonsense of whether or not the prose was born in this country. if i had some dna, it wouldn't

assuage those who don't believe he was born here. i have news for them and for all of us. the president was born in honolulu, hawaii. the 50th state of the greatest country on the face of the earth. because for $15 you can get an internet address and say whatever you want. >> ken vogel, why do these people, not just the one or dozen or so who have backed this in legislation, we have a new guy out there basically saying he wants a resolution on something else, but here is the one we got neal abercrombie from hawaii who is a democrat who wants to honor the state out there by also throwing in the fact that the president of the united states was born in hawaii. so clearly the battle has been joined here. is this real? >> well, it was real during the campaign, and i thought the obama campaign did a very effective job of undercutting it during the campaign by producing these documents. hey, if these documents don't answer the questions of folks on the right or the libertarian fringe who still continue to

insist that obama is not a natural-born citizen, nothing will satisfy them, and i agree with howard that the white house would like nothing better than for republicans to go back to their districts during the august recess and have their constituents ask them about this because that means they won't be asking them about, you know, obama's health care plan or the cap and trade bill, things that the white house would really like to get through without having a huge public debate over. >> you know, the hardest thing, it would seem to me if i was a doubter, and i tend to be a doubter on other things, howard, is the doubt, well, why would i question a birth announcement that was put in the newspapers at the time he was born in hawaii with the street address and everything. we're looking at it right now. why would anybody have such an announcement made except that they're planning for their kid just born to be president because they're automatically a citizen if their mom is a citizen. there's only one goal here, to be able to lay the groundwork for some sort of manchurian candidate presidency. >> well, look, chris -- >> and that is a full mooner theory, by the way, anybody who

thinks like that. >> this isn't really about facts. it's about emotion, and i can tell you from having, for example, covered one of the tea party events down in kentucky where i began as a reporter back in april, those same people that i saw there, some of them, the people who were worrying about the government taking up the guns, the people who deny that the federal government has a right to tax your income, the people who are worried about being overrun at the borders, the people who are worried about the rights of the nra and so forth, a lot of those same rejectionist front, if you will, are out there looking for a reason to find a conspiracy in the presidency of barack obama. there are just enough annoying bureaucratic details that she can seize on having to do with the original birth certificate, et cetera, which are all legally and factual bibeside the point, but there are enough of them that allows the people on the fringes of the party to do what they're going to do. when the river is low, the river

bed is exposed. the river is low in the republican party right now, and you're seeing the rocks at the bottom. >> i can't wait until somebody hits the question or brings the question of sarah palin. maybe that's bringing cole to new castle. i assume she'll give something of a stutter as an answer. ken, i haven't had you on the show lately so i want to get your dna. they have something called a minnesota multiphasic personality test which tests your temperament. they ask you questions do you like tennis or baseball. would you rather play chess or go outside, whatever. then right in the middle they say things like is someone chasing you right now? a someone trying to kim yll you? they intersperse those questions. i think lot of these people will say yes. are we talking psychological problems with people or what? >> there are certain people who are prone to embrace conspiracy

theories? we see it with the idea that nevenl was an inside job. the idea that there's a global banking kabul designed to take over the government. there are enough of them particularly in the internet cage where they can be something of a force in politics and one the republicans have to watch out for. >> you are great. ken, i'm falling in love. your great. you have reminded me of all the erogenous zones of insanity in one sentence of free thinking. your stream of consciousness has picked up on the item that george w. bush was sitting in the white house basement with a plunger as he blew up the world trade center with his uncanny ability to get away with murder. >> chris, can i just -- >> people give a lot of money. ron paul's campaign showed that. there are folks who embrace these conspiracy theories --

>> don't say ron paul. >> and have an innate distrust of the federal government and they can be a force in politics in the internet age. companies have to be sure they don't cater to them. >> ron paul has a lot of appeal as a libertarian. >> i think the white house is not unhappy this is happening. my ears perk up whenever a politician or spokesman denies something he hasn't been accused of. robert gibbs said i'm being perfectly serious here about this, and i almost don't want to talk about it, but i will. but i would caution the white house not to be too cute by half about this stuff. they think they can do a controlled burn about this, to mix my metaphors. >> do they have a document to trump this in the end if this does become -- >> the document they already have trumps it in the sense that the certification of birth is a valid douption that proves his -- >> we're looking at t. >> that's what you have been showing on the air. now there's a dispute over

something called the certification of live birth. does it still exist or not? were they all put on microfilm after 2001? were they destroyed after 2001? it doesn't matter. he was born in hawaii and there's legal proof to show so, but what i'm saying is if the white house really wanted to shut it off in a forceful manner, you know, they could, number one, not answer the questions anymore. the fact gibb was willing to talk about it in the press room today is interesting in and of itself. or they can do something in hawaii if they wanted to. but the democrats see an opportunity in this now which is why neil amber caromby put that new resolution out there on the floor of the house. >> thanks as always. and ken, welcome to the show. up next, sarah palin says good-bye to alaska, not to us. and slams the media on her way out. boy, she is the new spire row agnew. what kind of political future could she have? she could have a big one in a

party that's getting smaller and farther to the right. she could be perfect for the republicans come 2012. this is "hardball" ohm on msnbc. whether you consider it a cruiser or a clunker, you could turn it into cash. get to your dodge, chrysler, and jeep dealer, and get up to double the government's cash for your old car. now get up to $4,500 for your old car... plus, up to an additional $4,500 cash allowance. no turn-in? no problem. your dodge, chrysler, and jeep dealer guarantees everyone up to $4,500 cash allowance... on virtually every model. get to your dodge, chrysler and jeep dealer on the double,

and get double cash for your old car! after a long fight with his party's leadership, republican senator jim bunting says he's not running for re-election. does that spell trouble for the "r"s. "hardball" returns with "the politics fix," up next.

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i love alaska, this much, sir, that i feel it is my duty to avoid the unproductive lame

duck session in office. i'll be habl to fight even harder for you, for what is right, and for troops. i have never felt that you needed a title to do that. >> well, we're back and time for the politics fix. talk show host and msnbc contributor, michael, and gene. i have a question. how do we know if she runs for president, when she will quit that? i mean, quitting public office halfway through your term is an unusual political move. i remember the only victory in love is to walk away. i'm not sure of the plight here michael first. >> there's already a bumper sticker out there. i think i saw one that says palin through 2012 and 13 1/2. that's going to be the charge that she quit this. it was the worst possible thing she could have done because she will be portrayed as a quitter.

>> you know, i'm not a quitter, so i quit. i love alaska, so i'm leaving. there seems to be separation in football between the reality and the words. >> i certainly agree with you, chis. it's just a jumble of contradictions, as we saw during the presidential campaign. on the one hand, she's feisty and in your hands and on the other, she's a protective mother who hated the way that the media treated her kids. and then she mentioned every single one of them on national tv. and then she's a fighter but she quits because she's a lame duck and can't get anything done. if we continue on here, we may not have to ponder much, but it will be covering a presidential campaign by her later because what may well happen is that she'll go out and pretend to be fighting for conservative values, when, in fact, she makes a whole lot of money for her personal use. >> michael, one thing that

strikes true with me, these nuisance suits against her, one that you can't raise a legal defense fund to pay off all of the costs of the ethic charges. how else is she supposed to pay for a lawyer? isn't that a nuisance? >> r. >> i think that there have been some legitimate and many illegitimate. i think there's a way for sarah palin to turn loose what you're about to see in terms of the grassroots support that she's going to cultivate for the gop and raise money. the three of us are working at this in the way that she announced that she was leaving. i must tell you all day long today telephone calls from people saying to me that's the plain talk of sarah palin that

we so admire. and that's why we are for her. >> i think this is like hearts. she's shooting the moon, right, michael? she's shooting the moon? >> well -- >> everybody else is grabbing this card and she says, no, i'm grabbing this card. go against the crowd and do what they don't do. don't pack up a resume. throw the resume against the window and say i'm running on my values. >> well, she can try that but it takes a whole lot of work. what you said at the beginning, what does this say about her stamina and commitment? a fighter fights through this thing. by her own admission, the he ethics laws needs to be amended because of the suits brought against her. we'll be right back to talk about jim bundting, the greatest

pitcher of all times gets thrown out of the game. we'll be right back with hardball. and fees. but not walmart. they have hundreds of generic prescriptions for just $4 for up to a 30-day supply or $10 for 90 days. save money. live better. walmart. wiggle your day with jell-o sugar-free gelatin. ♪ ooh, yeah it's 10 tasty calories... loved by lips and hips alike. ♪ shake it, shake it, ooh, yeah ♪ jell-o. because every diet needs a little wiggle room. but now that i'm breathing better with advair... i can enjoy the zoo with my grandkids. (announcer) for people with copd including chronic bronchitis, emphysema, or both, great news. advair helps significantly improve lung function. while nothing can reverse copd, advair is different from most other medications because it contains both an anti-inflammatory and a long-acting bronchodilator working together to help you breathe better. advair won't replace fast-acting inhalers

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