also, we'll talk about the president's health care plan. a new quinnipiac poll shows the president may be on the attack trying to sell the plan across america but he is losing support by the day. we'll talk to you about that and we'll also talk about reports coming out of washington last night that a bipartisan deal is close to being brokered. they're moving to an agreement. first, here's willie. he's got the news. willie? time for a look at some of today's top stories. today the senate is set to hold a confirmation vote for supreme court nominee judge sonia sotomayor. her seat on the bench is nearly assured after another two republicans announced their support yesterday. meanwhile, the senate will also vote on a plan to add another $2 billion to the cash for clunkers program. drivers who have until september to trade in their gas guzzlers for more fuel efficient vehicles. for the first time in 4 1/2 months, u.s. journalists yeuna

lee and laura ling will wake up as u.s. citizens as bill clinton negotiated their release from north korea. >> we were taken to a location and when we walked in through the doors we saw standing before us president bill clinton. we were shocked but we knew instantly in our hearts that the nightmare of our lives was finally coming to an end and now we stand here home and free. >> emotional pictures obviously of euna lee hugging her

4-year-old daughter. also some interesting politics going on. the relationship between bill clinton and al gore, mending a fence, getting over their past mrits. >> conflicts, barack obama and hillary clinton have had obviously in the past. bill clinton and hillary clinton as far as just one eclipsing the other, bill clinton and al gore and then of course north korea shooting back and forth in a war of words with hillary clinton. fascinating times. most people would think it would be good news but, pat buchanan, john bolton and some conservatives critical of this deal. i don't get that. >> well, i think what happened -- terrific the two nurses coming home, returned to their families. bill clinton accepting this assignment and i think it was an assignment to go to north korea and, in effect, preside over this transfer of these women back to the united states is

excellent. i do agree that there's complications from this because the north koreans are saying that on behalf of the united states bill clinton had apologized, they had exhausted discussions of major issues in there, that he asked for this pardon and what clinton -- bill clinton has done, the north koreans are saying, completely contradicts the policy of secretary of state hillary rodham clinton who said no more rewards for bad behavior of these juvenile delinquents so the north koreans have insulted the secretary of state and welcomed president clinton. so we're going to be clear on this in the united states on who did what. >> but at the time you salute president clinton for going over there and -- >> oh, sure. >> you would have made the same decision, right? >> i think the president of the united states was asked to do an assignment -- former president -- and he did it and he succeeded. and so i think what he did was right, but i do think the u.s. government has some problems in

asia. >> all right. we're going to play the john bolton clip, mike barnicle, and then get your response to it. willie? >> before we do that, more news closer to home. a former louisiana congressman is facing more than 20 years in prison after he was found guilty yesterday of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes. surveillance video shows william jefferson, look at these pictures, loading suitcases full of cash into his car before federal agents raided his home where they famously found $90,000 wrapped up in his freezer. >> i served with congressman jefferson on the judiciary committee and i can tell you he was always conducting these investigations on his own, trying to ensnarl the bad guys. remember the congressman who had all the cash? you're right, he was railroaded. this is an injustice that i think we need to take -- this and blago -- we need to take

these two cases up on a runaway judicial system. >> let me ask, the four of us, pat in washington, the three of us here, who doesn't keep cash in the freezer? >> i do especially nowadays. you can't trust the markets. >> it keeps much longer i understand at 27 degrees. you sleep better at 62 degrees, i learned on "way too early" and your cash keeps better at 27 degrees. ask any meteorologist, except bill karins. [ inaudible ]. >> great political analysis. how about another story? there are new details emerging into tuesday's deadly shooting spree at a pennsylvania health club. police say the gunman george sodini talked of loneliness. three people were killed in the attack when he walked into the fitness club. the gunman then took his own life. according to "roll call" the

house of representatives has some new plans for three brand-new private jets. this is one of the most stunning stories. read it. >> the air force asked for one $65 million jet, but the house appropriations committee bumped that order up to three jets. they also made sure the planes would be assigned to the d.c. area for congressional and government use. >> okay. mike barnicle, i have read stories and it surprised me -- maybe newt did this, i don't know -- about nancy pelosi flying back and forth to california in these private jets. i have to tell you when i served for seven years in congress, we didn't go flying around in government private jets. if we went on a government trip we would have -- we would be -- i would fly delta and you would get the reimbursement. the fact that in the middle of the worst recession since the great depression they're buying

three g-5 jets -- three g-5 jets -- to fly congressmen around in a way that rock stars can't even afford to be flown around, this is really tone deaf, to say the least. >> they are as tone deaf on this, joe, i would submit, as the heads of general motors, chrysler and ford were when they each flew individually in their own private corporate jets to washington. >> but this is almost worst. they're lecturing general motors and everyone else. >> that's what i mean. wagging your finger -- >> and, guess what, general motors at that time when they were flying their private jets to washington, d.c., that wasn't costing taxpayers money. and, again, maybe some republicans flew around in private jets all over the place. i've got to tell you i wasn't invited to that party and the scores of congressmen that i hung out with certainly didn't fly around on private jets. i flew around on one private jet

on a government mission, so to speak, and that's when fema offered to fly me in their jet down to my home district after we got hit by a hurricane. that was the only time and, again, that was an administration jet. again, for congress with these deficits and, pat, i hear you talking here, but with these deficits and also running around claiming that this is the worst economy we've had since 1932 to buy three g-5 corporate jets is stunning to me. just stunning. symbolically at least. >> joe, you remember back in 1991, was it, john sununu, the chief of staff for the president of the united states, simply took a white house limo to new york. i think he was going to some kind of auction up there, and he lost his position which is basically second ranking power position in the government of the united states for using a

limo and these folks are buying themselves, you know, mort zuckerman-style jets to fly around the country. >> i know. why throw mort in there? mort will tell you he has a g-5. >> because mort attacked my navigator. >> yeah. so you go after pat's navigator he's going after your g-5. i sure wish mort would invite me on the g-5. has anybody flown on a g-5? you hang out with wealthy people. >> i don't think i have, no. i've flown in a little jet. >> i heard g-5s are just amazing. >> run for congress. >> the only time i've seen the inside of a g-5 jet was at the end of "castaway" when they were flying tom hanks home to memphis and i said, wow, that looks nice. >> me, too. some day. >> pat? >> back in the '60s with nixon in the off years it was the leer jets to key biscayne, four seats. one more. this is a big story about how we

monetize news on the web. in a bid to boost revenue newscorp is planning to charge now for access to its news website. chairman rupert murdoch says the company will use "the wall street journal's" online site as an example adding what he says quality journalism is not cheap. >> that's really my pet peeve. you have all a of these journalists, these people who have spent their entire lives -- mike, you can speak more to this than me -- spent their entire lives owning their craft and i get the benefit whether i'm reading a conservative columnist, whether i'm reading a liberal columnist or frank rich, they've spent their entire life honing their craft and for them to work all week and give us a great column and then for it to just be given away free seems to me obscene. just obscene. >> but they're going to have to figure out, the owners of publishers and newspapers, are going to have to figure out a

way to monetize the internet or they're not going to survive. they made the horrific mistake eight, nine, ten years ago of giving it away for free and now the drudge reports and everybody else just, you know, grab it, put it up on their website for free and, you're right, joe. >> there's a great "washington post" op-ed about a guy explaining how long it had taken him to develop contacts and get information and then he had i think gawker picked it up -- and not knocking gawker because it's just one of many sites that i go to, you go to, we all go to -- but the guy was excited at first but then my editor said, wait a second, you spend all of your time, how long did it take to you get this information they put in one paragraph for free and you get nothing out of it? there's been an argument that, oh, well, the kids -- if we want the kids -- if we want to build readership in the future, we have to put this out there for free. wrong. you know what, the industry is

dying. and it's time for the industry to step forward. i've wanted "the new york times" to do it but i'm glad murdoch is doing it. you want quality journalism, you're going to pay for quality murdoch. >> it costs money. >> if you can't pay $5 a month for quality journalism, then you don't get it. >> you buy premium cable channels on your cable package, you should be able to afford $3 to $5 a month. >> "the new york times" tried this -- they tried to make you pay to read dowd and freeman and they got rid of it. >> do you know what the problem was? i was one of the few people that paid for that premium service, times select, the problem, though, i would buy it and then see drudge or huffington for free, the articles leaked there. a little weather now. a man who wreaks havoc on this show, bill karins. what's going on, bill? >> we are watching a hurricane in the pacific. it is the first -- almost through the first week of august and we haven't talked about any

big storms in the atlantic. this one is out in the pacific. i'll show that you in a second. first let me greet you here on who needs the umbrella. it's raining from washington, d.c., to baltimore up through the delmarva. we are going to watch light rain continuing on and off especially south it in annapolis over into southern jersey. actually some thunderstorms this morning. philadelphia, some light rain spreading your way. that system is just barely going to clip long island. new york city should be just fine. 80 today. mostly cloudy. so 100 times more comfortable than what we saw yesterday through new england. the rest of the country looking okay. showers and storms in the rockies. dallas to san antonio hot and as far as our friend goes this is a category 4 hurricane heading to hawaii, hurricane felicia. >> you remember back in 2004-2005, you and i would talk and i remember we were getting hit in july and getting hit in august and getting hit in

september. for those two years it looked like we were going to be facing four or five hurricanes every year and i can tell you it was just distressing. it's really slowed down the past couple of years. let's knock on wood and pray to god it stays that way. >> the only problem, you have to remember, andrew. that didn't hit until the middle or end of august. >> i know. >> it only takes one. this is a lot better than what we dealt with. >> no doubt about it. we have a great show. in few minutes the president of the council of foreign relations will be here for his take on bill clinton's trip to north kor korea, richard haass. peggy noonan and robert mennen dead, voting against sonia sotomayor. plus, politico's top three stories of the morning. - hi. - crowd: hi! i hate my phone. what do i do?

( shouting ) this is crazy. you. let's run a free upgrade check. see if you're due for a new smartphone. don't i need to go to my carrier's store for that? no, you don't have to. we sell phones and plans on all the major networks. ok. well, is time travel possible? yes, i am from the future. announcer: phones, plans, and advice from thousands of people eager to help. this is humiliating. stand still so we can get an accurate reading. okay...um...eighteen pounds and a smidge. a smidge? y'know, there's really no need to weigh packages under 70 pounds. with priority mail flat rate boxes from the postal service, if it fits, it ships anywhere in the country for a low flat rate. cool. you know this scale is off by a good 7, 8 pounds.

maybe five. priority mail flat rate boxes only from the postal service. a simpler way to ship.

welcome back to "morning

joe." a beautiful morning here in new york city where the yankees will begin a four-game series with the red sox. >> that's tonight. >> should be a battle. with us now, chief political correspondent to politico, mike allen. he's here as he always is at this time of day with the "morning playbook." good morning, mike good to see you again this morning. let's talk about the health care town halls. we've seen outrage, arlen spector and kathleen sebelius shouted down by a rowdy mob in philadelphia. the white house has suggested some of the people at these town halls are plants and that some of it is scripted. what's the truth here, mike? >> well, this is an amazing phenomenon and i was surprised. i was wrong. i thought that august was going to fade. i thought that august was going to be a bust but hundreds of people are signing up, crowding to attend these town halls and you've been to these. they're so boring. nobody goes to these. so there is something real out there that's motivating people to go to these and sound off,

some of them in not very diplomatic ways but it is not all spontaneous. conservative business groups also are urging their supporters to get out there and even giving them scripts and talking points to take with them. one conservative group has sent out 300,000 e-mails this week. americans for tax reform has given people an obama spin translator we posted on politico.com so that they could -- a little dictionary for what they'll hear their democratic member of congress say and, interestingly enough, americans' health insurance plans, which is the trade group for health insurers, they put out a sample letter to all their ceos of how to write to their employees to tell them to go. now your boss tells you to come out to a town hall, you're probably going to. >> mike, if i can just stop you there now, not in august you aren't. my point is this. it's great grover and all these

other people are sending out these things and maybe taking credit but you and i both know that people hardly ever go out to town hall meetings. the left and the right are always trying to get support for things. you look at the people that are in these town hall meetings in my opinion, and my opinion only and i'm sure pat can join in with me here, too, you can't generate -- >> absolutely. i agree completely. >> and i want to show you a couple of quinnipiac polls for my liberal friends just to let you know i'm not just being a conservative tool here. quinnipiac has a new poll out. barack obama's handling of health care 39% of americans approve. 52% of americans disapprove. this is not a plan to buy anybody. he's bleeding support by the day and then one other thing, this is more interesting, will obama keep promises -- i'm sorry. should congress approve health care reform even if only democrats support it? only 36% of americans agree with

this proposition now. 59% disagree. mike, really quickly, i want to get your reaction to that and i know pat wants to jump in. >> no, i agree completely. republicans have been saying to me, look, we've been terrible at motivating people for these things, they only are going because they want to. this is an outlet for people used to go to mccain/palin rallies, people who have been quietly frustrated. government health care will cost you more. >> you look at those pictures. pat, you look at those pictures and those people don't look like k-street plant. they look just like those united we stand people that supported perot in '93 and '94. i know those people. i swear to god i saw those people in campaign stops for two years and, pat, these are the buchanan brigaders that followed you around for so long.

>> i think they are, joe. with respect to grover nor quist and all those guys, you're right. the whole business establishment, the national establishment, was for what we call that amnesty bill in '97 but tens of thousands of people out against it. this thing has hit the grassroots of america. some of these guys could give direction where to go but anyone who doesn't think this is authentic opposition along the lines in the groups doesn't understand grassroots american politics. >> they don't and democrats who right now are trying to convince themselves this is somehow planned by the business community and right wingers in washington, d.c., they've just been horrible at planning anything and you're only 0 harming your own political fortunes. you're whistling past the graveyard. >> the only thing the white house has to hang its hats on, they say these people who are

not as activist will not like them. that's why they're playing up the youtube and the story of the crazy, angry mob. that's why they're pushing that. >> it certainly didn't -- being extreme certainly didn't hurt barack obama because so many people on the left that went out on the other side of the extremes over the past eight years against george w. bush -- >> that's not right. during the campaign president obama didn't look extreme. >> no, no, no, i'm talking about his supporters, some of his supporters on the far left were extreme -- not president obama supporters. i'm just saying we see extremist on the far left as we do on the far right. >> sure. >> this might speak to how quickly you can get isolated from reality in the white house. >> right. the fact that -- and it's easy to look in the rear-view mirror and look at it from hindsight but they didn't pitch the health care plan as, "a," most importantly, a way to cut health care costs, everyone agrees with

that. >> it's not. that's the problem. >> that's the problem. the president has been saying we have to contain costs and i think you're right, mike -- both mikes -- this is the problem. from the beginning the president says we have to reform health care and cut costs. reform health care and cut costs. the congressional budget office comes out and says this will increase the deficit. the mayo clinic says the real losers are going to be the american people. the message isn't consistent. by the way, those people that are out there, those are whether the left or the right likes it, those are middle americans that will vote for barack obama one year and vote for george w. bush the next. they're the ones that swing back and forth. a lot of people that voted for perot and pat buchanan, a lot of people who voted for you and i have to say, pat, one other thing, the two months -- and, mike allen brought this up at the top of the segment and he is so right -- there are two months

that i never campaigned in because they were just worthless. one of was december because people were getting ready for christmas but the other was august. it was the political dead zone and nobody wanted to talk to you in august. too hot. they were trying to finish think vacations, get their kids back in school. the fact this is happening in august across america it just needs to be a warning shot to democrats. >> many of them are working class folks who aren't going to beaches and things like that coming out to these rallies. these are the people who swing back and forth between the two parties. a lot of them are those hillary democrats and when they went to obama and mccain couldn't bring them home, that was the end of john mccain. he had them for two weeks after he named palin and then all of the problems occurred. and when they left and went back to obama it was all over. now they're leaving obama because they think he is what people are saying, he is

governing from the left rather than the change candidate governing from the center. >> go ahead, mike. >> more at stake in august than health care. >> talking about those reagan democrats and you're exactly right. those are the ones in '92 that voted for bill clinton. they thought he went too far to the left in '93. guys like ross perot and me in '94 and then you had the transformation of the economy from an industrial base which is like clinton wants to information based. the same thing is happening here. >> people in the middle. >> they're in the middle going back and forth. >> you'll have to go to politico.com to hear about nancy pelosi. >> go to politico. mike, thanks so much. appreciate it as always. coming up, a look at the morning papers from around the country and in just a few minutes, the president of the council on foreign relations, richard

haass. we'll talk about how some are saying the clinton trip to north korea is bad for america. hi, may i help you? yes, i hear progressive has lots of discounts on car insurance. can i get in on that? are you a safe driver? yes. discount!

do you own a home? yes. discount! are you going to buy online? yes! discount! isn't getting discounts great? yes! there's no discount for agreeing with me. yeah, i got carried away. happens to me all the time. helping you save money -- now, that's progressive. call or click today.

you can make a positive change in your career. you can make a greater contribution to the greater good. and you can start today, by earning your degree online... at walden university. where advanced degrees advance the quality of life. it was tough news to hear. everything changed. i didn't know what to do. right about then, our doctor mentioned the exelon patch. he said it releases medicine continuously for 24 hours. he said it could help with her cognition which includes things like memory, reasoning, communicating and understaing. (announcer) the most common side effects of exelon patch are nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. the likelihood and severity of these side effects may increase as the dose increases. patients may experience loss of appetite or weight.

patients who weigh less than 110 pounds may experience more side effects. people at risk for stomach ulcers or who take certain other medicine should talk to their doctor because serious stomach problems, such as bleeding may worsen. mom's diagnosis was hard to hear, but there's something i can do. (announcer) visit exelonpatch.com for free caregiving resources. welcome back to "morning joe." that's a beautiful shot of new york city looking northwest. you have central park, the upper west side and off in the distance look at the hudson. the george washington bridge and the hudson river. just after 6:30 here on the east coast. time for a look at today's top

stori stories. today the obama administration is going to announce charges of poor treatment at the hands of private contractors who are currently in charge of oversight. more than 30 people are feared dead after a ferry slipped into choppy seas near the pacific island nation of tonga. rescuers pulled more than 50 people from the water. many of the missing are women and children who were trapped in cabins below deck. in a surprising shake-up the u.s. military academy at west point now sits atop forbes' list of the best universities. according to the rankings princeton fell to number two followed to the california institute of technology, williams college -- >> williams college? look at mika. >> they have vanderbilt number 77. this is just a fraudulent list. >> because of you. >> alabama dropped from 10 to

11. but we're doing okay. i went up last year to teach a class at west point. let me tell you something, there ain't a school -- a better school in america. beautiful campus. >> yes, it is. >> beautiful campus and those students, talk about the best and the brightest, wow. let's take a quick look, willie, at the morning papers. "the new york times" this morning as we just mentioned, seeking ways to overhaul detention policy for immigrants. the photo on the left there shows iran yak president mahmoud ahmadinejad being sworn in to his second term. >> "washington post" talks about the u.s. considering an overhaul of fannie and freddie. >> how about the elkhart truth? president obama returned to elkhart where he announced a grant program to help create

jobs in struggling communities. >> "the miami herald," fury over health care spills into south florida. about 100 protesters confront the staff of congressman ron kleine expressing their d displeasure with overhauling health care. it was the finest dressed pr protesters i've ever seen. >> "usa today," the rate of owning a home is plunging. analysts are forecasting a drop in homeownership to 1985 levels. >> that's not necessarily a bad thing. >> and "the washington times," william jefferson framed, set up, seriously, and framed. found guilty of 11 counts of public corruption. however, he was acquitted on the charges tied to the $90,000 found stuck in veggie burger boxes and pie crust in his

freezer as he should have. oh, great. so justice got it right one out of 11 times. >> railroaded. >> railroaded indeed. coming up next, the president of the council on foreign relations, we'll ask him about stuffing money. mika's opinion pages. she went to the fourth best college in america so they're good. undefeated professional boxer floyd "money" mayweather has the fastest hands boxing has ever seen. so i've come to this ring to see who's faster... on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't. so i can browse the web faster, email business plans faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than floymayweather. (announcer) switch to the nation's fastest 3g network and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free.

long summer days and not enough sleep. what i wouldn't do for a do-over. (announcer) new neutrogena total skin renewal. gentle exfoliating puffs and micro-vibrations speed surface cell turnover. it's clinically tested to help undo the look of a year's worth of skin aging in just one week. that summer of sun? i just made it disappear. (announcer) new total skin renewal. neutrogena recommended most by dermatologists. do-overs do exist. clean so deep... ...it's like your old mop's worst nightmare. ♪ [ thunder crashes ] [ man ] love stinks. ♪ love stinks! ♪ yeah! yeah! [ female announcer ] swiffer wet cloths clean better than a mop with new cleansers that attract dirt deep into the cloth and lock it away. new swiffer wet cloths clean better, or your money back.

♪

the symbolism of a former president going to meet with kim jong-il, i think, is something that benefits jong-il and only encourages others to do the same thing so you can bet that in tehran they watched this little performance in north korea and are no doubt calculating how they might use it to their advantage. with us now the president of

the council on foreign relations richard haass, the author of "war of necessity/war of choice: a memoir of two iraq wars." john bolton critical of -- i can't even ask a serious question. what the hell was that about? >> the criticism or the trip? >> the criticism. >> i couldn't explain john when i worked with him, i wouldn't begin to start now. >> some conservatives are going to be critical. >> sure. >> do you have concerns? >> sometimes a humanitarian is just a humanitarian mission and in this case it worked and the administration is correctly gone to some pains to make clear this doesn't affect the policy. >> does it concern you the north koreans are lying about their conversations with bill clinton, what they did and didn't say? >> they lie about everything else, the counterfeit dollars, they sell drugs -- >> they export nuclear technology. >> so why should we be surprised they misrepresent a conversation?

>> just for argument's sake what is the -- if you had to find a down side of this trip, just to give john bolton a bullet to shoot from his gun, what's the worst thing that could come out of this trip? >> that some north koreans would think if they continue to do bad things, in this case kidnap apparently innocent people, that they would take the lesson from that that they would get attention and conceivably that would lead to negotiation and over time that negotiations would lead to reward. that's the bad thing. the fact is, though, over the years that's been u.s. policy. when the north koreans have done bad things, we've tried to negotiate it away, to ease sanctions and so forth. it hasn't worked. the problem is not bill clinton's trip. the problem is north korea. >> mike barnicle? >> how could it be, and i heard john bolton in an interview yesterday talking about this, how could it be that anyone that was the concern, this creates great difficulty for the united states among some asian nations.

what asian nation takes kim jong-il seriously in they might fear him. they might think he's crazy but do they take him seriously? >> the japanese obviously worry about the nuclear program and this affects the debate about their future military. the chinese are concerned that he's going to somehow stumble this part of the region into a war and that leaves the refugee flows or much worse to a unified korea that looks like the south rather than the north and that's the last thing the chinese want. people don't take him seriously. he doesn't represent anything. this is a man essentially running the most closed, opaque country in the world. he's running, i don't know 17th century and 18th century country in the 21st century world. the one thing he has, though, is nuclear material so he's a problem. but no one takes him seriously. >> "the new york times," barack's progress report, and then there was the administration's first big coup of the week bill clinton's trip to north korea to rescue the two jailed american journalists. this goes to show how hillary

will surprise you every time. when it comes to the secretary of state's life story, i thought the one unbendable rule was that whenever he was most needed, bill was going to be most unhelpful. but there he was at burbank airport delivering the journalists to their families and getting that nice hug from al gore and also, richard, bill clinton brought back information, intel, on the health and well-being of north korea's leader. >> it's also good to turn to outsiders to do things when you want to compartmentalize them. if the whole point is to have it seen as a human gesture and not john bolton read into this is a major change in american policy. to choose someone who is not an administration official or employee actually makes sense. and if it meant sending a former president, so what? that's one of the things former presidents can usefully do and you're right. he brought back firsthand information on the guy's health, they had a conversation that went way beyond the humanitarian

issue. what's so bad about that? >> we have hikers that are in iran custody right now. let's talk about iran. ahmadinejad sworn in for the second time. apparently he's made peace with the supreme leader. what is the status in the streets of iran? do the hard-liners win? >> i'd say they've won this round. they prevailed as do people with clubs tend to do if they're willing to use the clubs. >> what's the long-term impact of this? what's happened over the past three months, anything? >> sure. the clerics who used to be on top are increasingly beholden to the thugs. ahmadinejad has no real legitimacy. powerful opposition in iran that is outmuscled but has momentum. >> i think a lot of americans always believed that it was the clerics that told the thugs what to do. we have found out now it is the thugs that are telling the clerics what they're going to

do. >> things have flipped and over the long run we have seen the beginning of the end of the islamic republic. what i can tell you is whether that happens in a year, three years and five years and the problem for the united states is you have this political clock beating at a pace we don't know and you have the nuclear plot that's beating clearly at a quicker pace and that's the challenge for the united states. how do we deal with the nuclear issue at the same time we have an increasingly legitimate regime in power. >> have moslem nations across the middle east taken note that this is not -- that the islamic revolution is no more, that the legitimacy of the clerics, they can't cloak that state in religious supremacy anymore, that it is just thuggish rule? >> well, this model never really had appeal to the rest of the middle east which is largely sunni, this fusion of political and religious authority. this now furthered the spread. on top of it, iran emerges a big threat to the point of view most

of the arab countries so all of this comes together to isolate iran. >> we also hear that all the time that iran's the big winner in the iraq war but at the same time, from the beginning, clerics have no use for the iran model. the guy who has done a remarkable job the past six years or so, but he never -- he always lived with contempt at the iran model and this probably drives the wedge even further, doesn't it? >> it's been a competition between the clerics in iran and iraq who represent the high point of shia and this will only reinforce it and reinforce the message that clerics should not get themselves that directly involved in political office. >> and that's always been the message. >> certain separation of mosque and state. >> stay there, richard. in a few minutes separation of mosque and state. jefferson wrote about it so long ago. "the wall street journal's" peggy noonan coming up.

first, freddie ball game and sports. i want to thank president bill clinton. i had a chance to talk to him for the extraordinary humanitarian effort that resulted in the release of the two journalists. i think that not only is this white house extraordinarily happy but all americans should be grateful to both former president clinton and vice president gore for their extraordinary help. it's the chevy open house. and now, with the cash for clunkers program, a great deal gets even better. let us recycle your older vehicle and you could qualify for an additional $3500 or $4500 cash back on a new, more fuel-efficient chevy. your chevy dealer has more eligible models to choose from. more than ford, toyota, or honda.

now get an '09 cobalt for under fifteen-five after all offers. and get it for even less if you qualify for cash for clunkers program. go to chevy.com for details. when i really liked to be outside, i did not like suffering from nasal allergy symptoms like congestion. but nasonex relief may i say... bee-utiful! prescription nasonex is proven to help relieve indoor and outdoor nasal allergy symptoms like congestion, runny and itchy nose and sneezing. (announcer) side effects were generally mild and included headache. viral infection, sore throat, nosebleeds and coughing. ask your doctor about symptom relief with nasonex. and save up to $15 off your refills. go to nasonex.com for details, terms and conditions.

this is weird. today police in detroit busted a marijuana growing operation netted more than half a million dollars worth of pot plants. yeah. way to go, police. police found the only profitable business in detroit and shut it down. what are they doing? >> it's working in california. time now for some sports. the biggest story right now and throughout the weekend, red sox/yankees. >> nothing to see here. >> first place, second place. >> nothing to see here. >> big setup games. looking forward to fred's highlights. >> nothing to see here. thanks and good morning. you could argue that the new york mets are more of a mash

unit than a baseball team. yesterday they lost two more players to injuries. rookie pitcher jonathon niese hurt his right leg while covering first base on a double play. it looked painful. but then to make matters worse, while throwing a practice pitch, he collapsed to the ground. diagnosis, a completely torn hamstring. he's done for the season. replaced niese on the mound helped his cause in the double to center after rick ankiel's glove. mets lost two players. on a team with hamilton, you wouldn't think j.a. would be the one to pitch a game shutout but that's exactly what happened against the rockies. allowed four hits and struck out a career-high 10. pedro feliz, rollins and werth all hit homers. defending champs smashed the rockies, 7-0. no team happier about the rockies loss to the giants. they moved a half game ahead of colorado in the wild card thanks to this grand slam by white. a grand slam is always impressive but check out the fan who caught the ball. he launched the ball from the stands all the way past third base. sign him up.

he's got a cannon. giants won, 7-6. from a guy who can throw to a feline on the go. somebody let the cat out of the bag during the royals/mariners game. ground crew corralled the kitty in the bull pen avoiding a catastrophe. great catch to show you. parra, shot to the gap. salazar left his feet and made a diving grab. all parra could do was tip his cap. salazar airborne to make the play. but it wasn't enough. arizona won it 4-3. football, giants quarterback eli manning has agreed to a new six year, $97 million contract extension that will make him among the highest paid players in the league with an annual salary over $15 million. back to baseball, dodgers manny ramirez lined foul down the left-field line which the ball boy couldn't hand l cleanly. the ball boy turned out to be former all-pro junior seau who was there for a stunt for a

reality tv show. he would have played offense. what's a man supposed to do? he was smart enough to give the ball to a little boy as a souvenir. now to basketball for one of the most amazing shots you will ever see and a ball never used. four guys and one young lady who happens to be a cheerleader. they're looking up at the basket and then all of a sudden, what in the world are they doing? they flipped her up and through the basket. you have to be kidding me. take another look. it is one of the coolest cheer stunts we've ever seen but was it real? rough to tell but the girl came down holding her head after hitting it on the rim so it certainly felt pretty real to her. that's it for me. we'll talk to you tomorrow. in other news, the red sox lost and the yankees won. yankees 2 1/2 up. junior seau giving the ball to the kid. >> how come there was no swimming? up next, joe scarborough

playing the guitar on jimmy fallon last night and he was great. >> what? really? >> really good. plus an important update on paula abdul as we have each and every morning for you here on "morning joe." )%)%)%)%)%)%)%)%)%

time for some news you can't use. it's day two of paula abdul gate. the end of an era. >> the update today.

>> america held hostage. >> there it is. >> day two. >> that's the one. sea crest has weighed in over twitter. he was about to go to sleep last night when i started seeing my blackberry blow up. i have read what you've read and i am shocked and saddened about paula. also of note, another fox reality show called "so you think you can dance" would be welcoming paula as a guest judge and choreographer. there may be a happy ending. fantastic. i have some video. youtube right now, girl riding a bus. no, not this, t.j. >> thanks, t.j. >> that is not someone riding a bus. we hit a bump, not wearing a seat belt, here is what happens. bam. everyone was okay. she quickly returned to her seat and carried on to whatever field trip she may have been going to, six flags, maybe a zoo of some

kind. she's okay so that's exciting. now here is the real top story as we approach 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. joe scarborough, here is what he did yesterday. he did "morning joe." then he did his radio show. that's five hours right there and then we're swinging over to charlie rose. >> the orphanage. >> forgive me. >> the camel. and then we did a full hour with charlie rose and then it was over to jimmy fallon late night. so you were on tv for 18 of 24 hours yesterday. here's joe walking out, a great interview, jimmy fallon pretended he had read your book. you immediately called him on it which was great. and then jimmy fallon said, hey, i hear you're a bit of a musician. fallon whips out a guitar from behind your chair and watch joe jam with the house band. here it is. >> can you guys help me out over

he here? >> we'll follow you. >> play loud. drown me out. ♪ romeo's recipe was ready to kill ♪ ♪ jumped out a window because he couldn't sit still ♪ ♪ waiting with a safety net ♪ have not said yes ♪ why don't you tell me ♪ ♪ i'm not satisfied ♪ well, i remember when the lights went out ♪ ♪ i was trying to make it look like it was ever in doubt ♪ ♪ she thought that i knew and i thought that she knew ♪ ♪ we didn't know what we were doing ♪ >> that's just cold, too. someone hands you a guitar. joe is cool and now the world knows he's cool. the man can play the guitar. how did that go down? they just whipped out the guitar? >> yeah. >> impressive. >> the only time i've ever played a guitar sitting down. it was like kumbaya.

i felt extremely off. >> that's not the best way to play guitar. >> he is incredibly cool but still given my nature i'm more impressed with the work he's done with the homeless children in nantucket. >> the thing is you look, seriously, into the eyes -- no, i'm serious. as you go to walk up the hill to the toggery and you see those homeless kids. what are you laughing about? >> i'm not. i'm crying. >> exactly. it makes me happy, though, and i'm about to cry here because there are a lot of kids in nantucket, my work in july. >> their mothers don't have baskets. it's horrible what's happening on that island. >> you see those poor little kids. it's like a sally struthers commercial going around with lobsters on their pants and they're tattered. i know that's how tucker looks, too, but still, it breaks your heart. let me go in, there's a new line, ralph lauren, got a new

l lobster design on their pants. it's what i do. >> if you touch just one child. >> it's who you are. >> touched just one child, seriously. on the way to the tennis camp, it's all worth it. it's all worth it. all right, hey, we have a lot of people here today and one of them who is sorry he's here, richard haass. richard is here. pat buchanan down in washington. we'll be talking to peggy noonan. robert menendez will be here. andrea mitchell will be here. richard engel is going to be here. who is not going to be here today? we've got a new poll out, a quinnipiac poll out, really, really surprising numbers for the president. not even the quinnipiac poll that we gave you last hour. this one hot off the presses. we're going to give you that information right after the break. plus, health care reform

possibly coming to a consensus in washington, d.c. news breaking overnight of the outline of a possible health care plan. we'll tell you that after the news with willie. also, mika brzezinski, she -- this is what we do -- she is also helping the homeless this week up in northeast harbor, maine. it's a sad story. rockefellers can't do it alone, can they? so mika will be back on monday. we'll hear her heartbreaking stories, too. >> and i'll be out in the hamptons this weekend. >> you know what they say. it only takes a spark to get a fire going. 1,000 points of life. that's what we're about here at "morning joe." >> it really is. a look at today's top stories. the senate today is set to hold a confirmation vote for supreme court nominee judge sonia sotomayor. her seat on the bench is nearly assured after another two republicans announced their support for her yesterday. meanwhile, the senate will also vote today on a plan to add another $2 billion to the cash

for clunkers program. drivers will have until september to trade in their gas guzzlers for more fuel efficient vehicles. for the first time in 4 1/2 months, american journalist euna lee and laura ling are waking up as free united states citizens today. the two arrived yesterday after former president bill clinton negotiated their release from north korea. >> we were taken to a location and when we walked in through the doors we saw standing before us president bill clinton. we were shocked but we knew instantly in our hearts that the nightmare of our lives was finally coming to an end.

and now we stand here home and free. >> al gore is looking good there. >> he is. and standing next to bill clinton, the man he didn't think he'd be standing to next anymore. meanwhile, a former louisiana congressman is facing more than 20 years in prison after he was found guilty yesterday of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes. >> all lies. outrage. lies. >> surveillance video shows william jefferson loading cash-filled briefcases into his car. >> how do you conduct these investigations on your own? >> he loaded them before federal agents raided his home. that is, of course, where they found $90,000 wrapped in his freezer, although it was the most visible element of the case, jefferson was acquitted -- acquitted -- of the charge involving the freezer money. >> as well he should. >> we can't continually complain about the lack of savings among americans and criticize congressman jefferson.

>> what message does that send? >> a very bad message. >> a mixed message. new details emerging into tuesday's deadly shooting outside pittsburgh at a health club there. police say the gunman george sodini kept an online journal. three people were killed in the attack. the gunman later took his own life. according to "roll call" some high flying plans for three new private jets. although the air force asked for just one $65 million jet, the house appropriations committee bumped that order up to three jets. they also made sure the planes would be assigned to the d.c. area for congressional and government use. >> is there any truth that they're going to name them the nina, the santa maria? >> president obama's approval rating taking a hit over the past month according to quinnipiac, the null now stands at 50%. that's down seven points from early july. of course we had a poll that showed he bumped up a little

bit. >> pat buchanan, we're going to be going to the white house in a few minutes but, pat buchanan, the president down to 50% in the poll. we showed the quinnipiac poll last hour saying that americans overwhelmingly want a bipartisan health care bill and also the president overwhelmingly disapproved of the way the president is handling health care policy and it looks like this issue is really starting to slip out of the president's hands. >> you know, if i were the president, joe, i would think seriously of moving for what you can get. august could kill him and people could peel off. i still think he has something of a coalition for a lot of parts of this thing but he's not going to get that government option, i don't think, and other things he's not going to get. i really think if he wants something he should go for a compromise and settle as early as he could because as you pointed out he is bleeding every day on this issue. >> i'm going to say lawrence

o'donnell called it last week, said that august was going to be a terrible month, that it was only going to get worse. he saw it firsthand when he was working for patrick moynihan in 1993 and 1994 for that attempt at health care reform plan. it ended up being a political debacle. right now to the white house. nbc news white house correspondent savannah guthrie is here. savannah, the poll numbers keep going down. the crowds keep getting bigger but the white house is not lying down. they are fighting back. tell us how. >> reporter: they don't want to cede any debate. we've seen a white house back in campaign mode and doing the rapid response whether it's the mobs at town hall and obviously a huge assist from the dnc and ofa, sort of the obama wing of the dnc, the campaign machinery of the obama administration. and so their feeling here is if

there's misinformation out there, if it's getting traction on the web or anywhere else they want to come back and respond to it. as you mentioned the polls and this latest one from quinnipiac is obviously not good news and they're all showing a good thing which is a downward trend. >> help me out on an issue. there's a little dispute right now. the democratic party, some of these advocacy groups you're talking about are actually attacking democratic senators and democratic congressmen who haven't come down on one side or the other. the white house -- has the white house called them off or is the white house allowing these left-wing groups to continue attacking democratic senators and congressmen? i say left wing, whatever you want to call it, progressive, whatever. >> reporter: it's interesting. robert gibbs has been asked about this and it apparently came up on tuesday when all the senate democrats were over with the president and the president

reportedly said he didn't approve of it, that it wasn't helpful for democrats to be targeting other democrats. the question is how forceful has he been? is he behind the scenes? is he calling folks like moveon.org saying, knock it off. i don't want to see it anymore. or is it words? how tough does he want to be on it? he says he doesn't approve of it, but is he willing to put his money where his mouth is. >> and the commercials are still up. mike barnicle, you've been saying it this morning as we see the numbers continue to go down, the american people, the vast majority right now, concerned about one thing. >> money. money. they're concerned about the cost. every american family -- nearly every american family has seen their 401(k) diminished to a crippling extent and now they're asking themselves the question why isn't the federal government asking about health care the same question they ask each and every day, can we afford this?

>> it all goes to deficits. you look at the polls out. not only the quinnipiac poll, the gallup polls that have been out, the cbs polls, "the new york times," the abc/"washington post." it all goes back to deficits. americans about a month ago, it seems like they woke up and said, wait a second. this is dangerous. you were talking about the real danger the obama administration facing moving forward. what is it? >> it's unsustainable. the u.s. debt more than 100% of u.s. gdp and we're going to face a situation that in order to continue to attract the financing from abroad we're going to need for our debt, ultimately we're going to have to jack up interest rates and it's got to be the president's and larry summers' nightmare that they're going to have to move rates up before they want to which can choke off the recovery we so desperately need if, among other things, we're going to bring unemployment down. it's not clear to me the administration can get the sequencing right and this debt, essentially a tax on our future. it's a real overhang for this administration. >> you know, pat buchanan, we've been talking about the deficit

here for five months, six months. of course president obama was handed a terrible hand by george w. bush. he immediately made it much worse but i'm repeating something else here. i was on the ground in '93 as were you. '93 and '94. what i'm seeing lines up and you look at those crowds. it's the same faces. it's the same retired military guys in those hats, the same women with the american flag, the same people, the reagan democrats that you're talking about that voted for bill clinton in '929 and then voted for people like me in 1994. they are scared out there and just like '93 and '94 a lot of it had to do with deficits. >> you know, deficits -- i think i saw on drudge this morning 71% think barack obama has added to the deficit. more and more folks think this is a terribly important issue. a deficit this year of 13% of

gross national product which is more than twice any deficit since late in world war ii. >> and, pat, let's be fair about that. probably 85% of that, 95% of that inherited from george w. bush and also a terrible economy but his budget plan over the next decade projects deficits that would dwarf president george bush. >> the deficit of $1.2 billion. it is now $1.8 billion and here we are talking about a trillion dollar health care plan and you notice barack obama's now saying it's got to be deficit neutral. where are you going to get a trillion dollars worth of taxes? it just does not add up to people and they're increasingly apprehensive and i will say republicans have been doing quite a job of attacking this piece meal. a lot of these folks are responding out there in these town halls and they're coming to them to express their outrage

and concern. i think this august could kill it. >> savannah guthrie, we've got to go but quickly what does the president have planned for today and over the next week to try to turn the tide? >> reporter: well, he has a bunch of private meetings today including with the treasury secretary and he's going to hit the campaign trail tonight for the democratic candidate in virginia for governor so he'll be out on the road. and he's actually planned a town hall for next week in new hampshire. so he'll be heading back to new hampshire. yes. so they'll be taking his show on the road next week, too. >> hey, issavannah at the white house, thank you so much. coincidentally new hampshire is one state where the president's poll numbers are still holding up. and there are quite a few -- i think over 30 blue states where the president has very good poll numbers still. so very interesting going back to new hampshire. let's go right now over to turkey. on friday three american hikers were arrested by iranian guards

after crossing over the border from iraq. according to the iranian state television all three have been charged with illegal entry. nbc news' chief foreign correspondent richard engel is with us from istanbul. richard haass also here with the cfr. you have a question for richard. >> where do you think this is going to lead in the question with iran or are we likely to see some sort of equivalent of north korea in is ahmadinejad likely to look for a gesture here or is this going to be something that will play out differently? >> reporter: i wouldn't expect former president clinton to go to iran anytime soon. the iranians would not accept a high-profile visit from such a former politician to try to negotiate this release. instead, the united states is working through switzerland, other allies to try and do back channel quiet negotiations. they think the americans will eventually be released but it could take weeks of these back channel negotiations. so far the iranians are being

very quiet. they're not saying exactly where they're being held or for how long. >> richard? >> the real question then is beyond this, where things go with the new iranian government and your sense of where ahmadinejad is likely to look for some sort of a gesture in order to strengthen his domestic position? >> reporter: it doesn't seem that way if you look at his speech yesterday. he was formerly inaugurated by parliament. he took the oath of office and had very strong words to not only his domestic problems, the opposition, and there were some protesters even outside as he was speaking. he said that the iranian government would not remain silent and would enforce the law and that it is international attempts that are trying to stir unrest in the country and then he made a swipe at the west, particularly the united states, which refused to congratulate him. he said we're not waiting for your congratulations and he seemed a little bit annoyed by

the snub. so if you just listen to the tone of what he said yesterday it does not appear that ahmadinejad is in any mood for reconciliation and that obama, president obama's attempts to reach out and offer a diplomatic branch don't seem to be going very far and won't go very far with another four years of ahmadinejad in office. >> richard, the three americans being detained, who are they, where did they come from, and did they know what they were doing when they crosseded the border? >> reporter: the three americans shane bauer, shourd and fattal, according to their websites, to other accounts of people we've spoken to who know them, they were dating. they were all experienced travelers. in fact, bauer and shourd were freelance journalists and photographers on their website pictures from trips they had taken together to yemen in north

africa, ethiopia, so they were people who traveled quite a bit both spoke to some degree arabic and were comfortable using local transportation so it's not that they were back packers carrying all sorts of camping gear. they were going for the experience to learn more about the region and they just appeared to have wandered over the border and got caught up. >> richard engel, live in istanbul, thank you so much. up next here, we're going to africa talking to foreign affairs correspondent andrea mitchell. she's in kenya where she's traveling with secretary of state hillary clinton. and right after the break "the wall street journal's" peggy noonan. please don't go near borders of hostile kcountries. this is something that countries are looking for, and you don't have to get very far away from some of these borders to be

picked up by their border patrols and their security forces. it's regrettable this has happened again, and i really -- go hiking, have a great time, do journalism but stay away from those borders. at 155 miles per hour, andy roddick has the fastesterve

in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed. ...on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't. so i can book travel plans faster, check my account balances faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than andy roddick. (announcer) "switch to the nations fastest 3g network" "and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free".

with us now live from kenya, chief foreign affairs correspondent and host of "andrea mitchell reports," andrea mitchell following secretary of state hillary clinton during her trip to kenya. also with us columnist for "the wall street journal," peggy noonan. >> good morning. >> good morning, peggy. let's start in africa. what is the secretary of state doing today other than fielding questions about her husband's mission yesterday? >> a lot of questions about that mission but, i'll tell you that

here in africa, here in kenya in particular where she has really been taking on the government in the last few days, this is what's the headline shows. tongue lashing, hillary clinton all over the front pages and throughout the newspapers about her taking on the government on their corruption. she really gave it to them, joe, and, in fact, bill clinton, the only headline about bill clinton is while wife is in kenya, bill helped free u.s. journalists. buried, a little item. so bill clinton was not the big story here. hillary clinton has not gotten a full debrief, as you know, from president clinton, former president clinton, but you can bet that he and the whole party, john podesta, who was with him, and of course importantly the doctor who was traveling with him, will be giving a debriefing to all u.s. officials not just the national security adviser but also obviously american intelligence want to know about kim jong-il who certainly appeared to be back from the dead in those photo

opportunities with bill clinton. >> richard haass, we saw something this morning that you rarely see. "the wall street journal" editorial page praising hillary clinton. praising her for actually taking on, as andrea said, these corruption charges. why have we not gone there in the past as aggressively as hillary did yesterday? >> we have been involved as has annan in trying to move things along in kenya and it's part of a larger message which is good governance, the single biggest problem in a lot of these countries. nigeria, one of the two or three most important countries on that continent, one of the most important oil producers, is on something of an edge because of corruption. there's warfare going on in the country f. it unravels, it could bring down a lot of africa. it could affect the world economy. what she's doing may not be big news here but very big news there. >> message received. and, andrea mitch it will, this is actually a one-two punch of tough love. first president obama delivering the message, straighten up, to

some much of these governments and now hillary clinton. are we going to be hearing this from this administration in the foreseeable future? >> reporter: well, i think they want to build, frankly, on what george w. bush did with the hiv/aids program, a lot of the humanitarian assistance, the big rampup during the bush years and build on that on the aids side but also demand responsibility and the way aid is used. i talked to part of a congressional delegation traveling here with secretary clinton and she went to a micro credit program, a women's program today, and said these women who are scrapping out a hard living have to pay off so many bureaucrats out of whatever they earn that the program is virtually destroyed so that is one of the big arguments. by the way, i should also mention, richard, you will remember this, also, joe, the history, the legacy of terrorism. 11 years ago today the embassy

bombing. we went to memorial park which is a somber place. it is the former u.s. embassy and she met with some survivors with a 14-year-old boy named michael who is an orphan. both of his parents killed in the embassy, embassy employees, and being raised by his grandparents, wants to go to school in the u.s. and become a doctor. she spoke about the legacy of terror and how kenya and the united states have to stand together as well as the rest of the government in the region, somalia. we know what's going on in the horn of africa. the increase in that presence here has been really notable. so that is very much on the minds more than 200 people who died in nairobi and tanzania 11 years ago today. >> all right. andrea mitchell, thank you so much for that report. we really do appreciate it and, of course, you can catch andrea live from kenya on msnbc's "andrea mitchell reports" later on today at 1:00 p.m.

peggy noonan, george w. bush, certainly we along with a lot of other people are critical of a lot of his foreign policy goals and aims but in africa as she said he built quite a base in africa for barack obama and other american presidents to build on while our approval ratings were plummeting across the globe in afterry ka we were actually becoming more popular. >> it's true. he took interest in afterry ka. he led a movement of new generosity towards africa. bringing up particular credibility and particular toughness. he's looking at africa saying you have to clean up your governments. you have to get serious. you cannot be blaming the rest of the world for all of your problems. i mean, obama just about literally said that to him in a

speech on one of his world tours in the past few months. i think that's the way to go. i think it is impressive. i think mrs. clinton is doing the right stuff in her toughness towards kenya and good stuff. good. >> george w. bush handed africa the carrot and now obama the stick. >> it comes together. good governance is not just a human question. it's a security question. andrea correctly noted the anniversary it have the embassy bombings. bad governments create vacuums which terrorists fill. that's why it's so important we get it right politically and economically if we're going to get it right security. if they fail, we, the united states will pay a price. there's a conveyor belt out there and bad things will come to us. >> pat buchanan -- >> it shows new respect. you can do better. we're all grown-ups. stop it. >> it's also important to

remember we basically did very little after the embassy bombings as a country. we failed to recognize the threat of terror back then. >> pat buchanan, we'll lose you after this break so let's turn the corner. what's your advice for the obama administration as somebody who has been through turbulent times inside a couple of white houses. you got the president now sitting at 50% on the quinnipiac poll. you've got him upside-down on deficits, on health care and all these other issues. i'm not sure i've seen a president burn through political capital as quickly as he has. still popular personally. americans are just saying no more. what would you recommend he do? >> i think he ought to sit down with senior advisers and say, listen, we're not going to get everything we want. we can't afford it. we can't get the tax revenue. what can we get that's a real victory here in the fall and let's move for a compromise and

get what we can. i think, joe, they're about at that point given where things are going and that's what i think i would do and then move that -- frankly get some sort of victory in their pocket and my guess is in september that's what they're going to do. otherwise i think if they go whole hog on this thing, they could go over the cliff and get nothing. >> pat, you'd agree with me there's no need for republicans to hyperventilate, this is one of many seasons for this president, this administration. there's always an eb and flow but no doubt the honeymoon is officially over. >> yeah, republicans ought to behave, do not behave like bourque. really do your job. pick your target, go after them on issues you profoundly disagree but do it at a high level. no gloat iing. >> be serious. >> be serious. it's time for republicans to be serious. all right, pat buchanan, thank you so much for being with us. richard, thank you so much. yes, pat?

>> joe, let me tell you, i thought i was listening to chuck berry. you've got that style. >> you didn't see me duck walk across the stage after it was all over. >> you're too old to duck walk, joe. >> i am. i have a bad back, as you know. thank you, pat. thank you so much, richard. great having you here. and of course richard's book "war of necessity/war of choice." get it. it is a great read. peggy, stay with us. coming up next, "mourn joe" has a look at the cover of "vanity fair." leslie bennett wrote explosive cover story on ryan o'neal and farrah fawcett in the latest issue and i had to get her on after my wife said to me did you hear what ryan o'neal said? seriously, to his daughter at the funeral. and there are a hundred horrible stories. it's shocking stuff.

also, speaking of shocking and crazy, lawrence o'donnell next. new blackberry, huh ? yeah. ♪ me too how sick is the web browsing !? all the apps... gps... video. yeah... you didn't get your blackberry with the verizon network, did you ? no. sorry. so it doesn't work here, does it ? no. umm... but... paperweight mode. alright ! blackberry runs better on america's largest 3g network. and now get the new blackberry tour for only $199.99

you must be looking for motorcycle insurance. you're good.

thanks. so is our bike insurance. all e coverage you need at a great price. hold on, cowboy. cool. i'm not done -- for less than a dollar a month, you also get 24/7 roadside assistance. ght on. yeah, vroom-vroom! sounds like you ran a 500. more like a 900 v-twin. excuse me. well, you're excused. the right insurance for your ride. w, that's progressive. call or click today. when morning comes in the middle of the night... rooster crow. ...it affects your entire day. to get a good night's sleep, try 2-layer ambien cr. the first layer dissolves quickly to help you fall asleep. and unlike other sleep aids, a second dissolves slowly to help you stay asleep. when taking ambien cr, don't drive or operate machinery. sleepwalking, and eating or driving while not fully awake with memory loss for the event as well as abnormal behaviors such as being more outgoing or aggressive than normal, confusion, agitation and halluciations may occur. don't take it with alcohol as it may increase these behavio.

allergic reactions such as shortness of breath, swelling of your tongue or throat may occur and in rare cases may be fatal. side effects may include next-day drowsiness, dizziness, and headache. in patients with depression, worsening of depression, including risk of suicide may occur. if you experience any of these behaviors or reactions contact your doctor immediately. wake up ready for your day-ask your healthcare provider for 2-layer ambien cr. i remember when she was diagnosed with cancer and my dad got upset and he said, no, i'm dying. you're not dying, i'm dying. and i said, well, dad, that sounds a little selfish because you're in remission.

you've been in remission for, gee, years now. it was very, very -- >> he was mad at her having cancer? >> yes, because the attention was diverted to farrah and he didn't like that. >> that's griffin o'neal, ryan o'neal's son talking about his relationship with farrah faus fawcett. leslie bennetts talks about the magazine's latest issue which has two covers. beautiful people, ugly choices. also with us, speaking of a beautiful person and an ugly spiri spirit, crazy larry. >> i think we're going to find in this segment that crazy isn't an adequate adjective for mr. o'neal. >> i have to say we don't usually do segments like this but my wife, we were walking in new york and my wife turns to me and said did you read the

article and she started telling me these things. i did not believe them until i read it. it's stunning. >> i've been at this a long time but spend iing time with ryan, everything that came out of his mouth, i was like, i can't believe you're saying this. >> tell people some of the more shocking quotes. >> well, you know, his son griffin who we have just seen says that ryan gave him coke at the age of 11 and of course several of his children have had horrific struggle with drug addiction so i asked ryan if he had given griffin cocaine at 11 and he said, leslie, you know the prices. i never gave my coke to anyone. he told me that he was sorry he had kids, that he wishes he could send some of them back. he told me he tried to pick up his own daughter at farrah's funeral because he didn't recognize her. i mean, it just went on and on. and one afternoon we spent with

alana stewart and she kept hitting him with a sofa pillow and saying, ryan, don't you understand how this is going to look in print? but he just doesn't censor himself at all. maybe he doesn't care what things sound like or maybe he likes the attention. i don't know. but everything he says is so outrageous that your jaw drops. >> as they were loading the casket he turned and tatum came up next to him and he turned and saw a blond and he hit on her and asked if she wanted a beer after this is all over. >> the shallow level of self-absorption which i think a lot of people thinks exists in hollywood is so mag any tini hollywood is so mag any tinfied this one individual. how did you stand sitting there listening to him? >> i think partly he intends it to be funny. and where the line is between he's delivering lines to try to

make you laugh and where the truth starts, i think that's a movable line and i'm not sure he knows where it is. >> the lines that he says on re reality shows, you said it's almost like a switch turns on and you're like, wait a second, i've heard him try to deliver this line before. >> right. he delivered to me a couple weeks earlier the exact same lines he then delivered to barbara walters about asking farrah to marry him on her deathbed and, you know, saying, oh, i saw myself as a gigolo with a silk suit and all of these things. what a weird image for his dying love of 30 years. >> and his kids think that he only came back for the money. >> well, griffin says he was only interested in the money. >> and he whispered, you know, what's the password, i heard she's worth $25 million. >> ryan makes a joke out of it. at one point i asked him there were all these rumors around

about how he and alana stewart, farrah's best friend of 30 years, are having an affair. i called ryan when the rumors start and said what about this? he said, no, we're not having an affair. don't be ridiculous. at the end of the conversation he said when you talk to her ask her why must she always be on top? >> nice. this is a guy also you report lee majors was married to farrah fawcett, the $6 million man," best friends. no man in hollywood ever makes and that is he invited ryan o'neal over to his house, met farrah fawcett. you said that lee majors goes up to canada, makes a movie and they kiss so much she and ryan o'neal, the first day he's gone that what happens? >> kissed until their lips were bloody. >> this never happened to me.

>> this is standard -- >> one of the worst old neighbors from chelsea. one of the great journalists of our time and you get things out of people that other people don't. that's what i find a kind of peace. and did you find a moment where ryan o'neal just in some sense decided to trust you and bring you into this? >> i would love to take credit for this because of the great magic of my interviewing skills. >> trying to give you that credit. >> i just think this is who ryan is. i think if the newsstand guy on the street asked him a question he would say something that would sort of make your eyeballs spin around in your head. >> lawrence, you've seen a lot of crazy things -- >> i don't see what role i have. >> i'm not trying to dig any stories. does this shock you, though? even by hollywood standards.

>> even by hollywood standards, by my zip code in santa monica, this would get some talk in the neighborhood, yes. >> if you just listed the arrests, the rehab -- i said something to ryan about something, oh, yeah, that was the night that i shot my son. well, i didn't really shoot at him. if i'd wanted to hit him, i would have hit him. i shot at the banister. everything spins often into these surreal stories that are true and have ended up in arrests and prison sentences. >> is there any easy answer to what kind of world he's concocted for himself when you realize what he's done, his relationships with his children never mind farrah fawcett, the children. >> addiction, multigenerational addiction has a lot to do with this. his mother was a drug addict. i didn't know until he told me recently and his kids have terrible problems and substance abuse is, i think, a very big part of this. >> how does he finance his day-to-day life?

>> when griffin says that ryan only wanted to get farrah's money and that he saw him as a vulture presiding over a carcass during farrah's final days, i talked to ryan about that and he was very angry. his first response was, i hate him, talking about his own son, griffin. and then he said griffin knows i've got my own money. i have more than i deserve. >> from what? >> he made a lot of investments in real estate apparently. >> oh. and that market's going really well right now i hear. i'm going to get into condominiums in florida soon. you can read the article, it's shocking, in the latest issue of "vanity fair." thanks so much. we have an eye assignment for you. if you could interview lawrence right after this, we want to figure out -- >> pass along ryan. >> makes ryan o'neal look like -- >> i have never take ann drug in my life. >> whatever. >> nor have i been drunk in my life. >> the lies continue.

>> that's it on similarities. >> the look at "time" magazine. - ( microphone feedback ) - whoa. hi, i'm john. all: hi, john! going to college and need a laptop. what do you got? you, in the top corner. our next class laptops could be perfect for you. we got student feedback and designed them specifically for college. are they legit brands, though? boom! we partnered with hp, toshiba, sony and dell.

okay. uh, what's thsquare root of 841? 29. announcer: laptops designed for college and thousands of people eager to help. five co-workers are working from the road using a mifi, a mobile hotspot that provides up to five shared wifi connections. two are downloading the final final revised final presentation. - one just got an e-mail. - what?! - huh? - it's being revised again. the co-pilot is on mapquest. - ( rock music playing ) - and tom is streaming meeting psych-up music from meltedmetal.com. that's happening now with the new mifi from sprint, the mobile hotspot that fits in your pocket. sprint. the now network.

what do you say to a spin around the color wheel? to paint with primer already mixed in? test samples instead of can commitments? what do you say we dip into our wallets less and grab a hold of the latest tools out there so we can quit all that messing around with extra steps and get busy turning our doing dials up a notch?

more saving. more doing. has the fastest hands boxing has ever seen. so i've come to this ring to see who's faster... on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't. so i can browse the web faster, email business plans faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than floyd mayweather. (announcer) switch to the nation's fastest 3g network and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free.

when i really liked to be outside, i did not like suffering from nasal allergy symptoms like congestion. but nasonex relief may i say... bee-utiful! prescription nasonex is proven to help relieve indoor and outdoor nasal allergy symptoms like congestion, runny and itchy nose and sneezing. (announcer) side effects were generally mild and included headache. viral infection, sore throat, nosebleeds and coughing. ask your doctor about symptom relief with nasonex. and save up to $15 off your refills. go to nasonex.com for details, terms and conditions. s shopping forcom ♪ which one's me - a cool convertible or an suv? ♪ ♪ too bad i didn't kn my credit was whack ♪ ♪ 'cause now i'm driving off the lot in a used sub-compact. ♪ ♪ f-r-e-e, that spells free credit report dot com, baby. ♪ ♪ saw their ads on my tv ♪ thought about going but was too lazy ♪ ♪ now instead of looking fly and rollin' phat ♪

♪ my legs are sticking to the vinyl ♪ ♪ and my posse's getting laughed at. ♪ ♪ f-r-e-e, that spells free- credit report dot com, baby. ♪

the managing editor of "time" magazine richard stengel is here to unveil this week's new cover. i hope mika brzezinski is watching in northeast harbor, because mika, i'm right, you're wrong. you wasted a lot of time. you've wasted a lot of money on running shoes. you've sweated way too much. rick stengel -- tell us. tell us. >> you're always right. >> great news. >> the cover story is about -- the mythology of exercise. the idea that we believe and think exercise is related to weight loss. most new research shows that it is not at all. and that in fact -- exercise has

many, many, many benefits, but if you think by exercising you're going to lose weight, that is in fact wrong. it is counterintuitive but that's a relatively new idea. only in the last 20, 25 years did scientists think there was a correlation between exercise and weight loss. but these new studies show that one of the things it does is, it actually makes you eat more, in part to compensate for the expenditure of calories. evolution has made us -- actually we're not supposed to do intense exercise but walk around and move around and lose weight that way. >> can you explain that? moderate exercise, walking in many respects people believe is much better than somebody who goes out and runs. >> a number of studies we quote show in fact kids or adults who do intense exercise, then actually move around less during the course of the day during the week than they would have if they hadn't done that exercise. >> i'm doing all right. i'm feeling good. i'm feeling good. >> i don't want to everybody who's not exercising feel not

guilty about it because exercise is important for your heart, for combating cancer all of these kinds of things, but this mythology that we've had that you have to actually exercise to lose weight and that exercise actually makes you lose weight we've discovered from lots of new studies that are out, it is basically not true. >> when i reach for the tv clicker with one hand and reach for the quarter-pounder with the other hand, i'm okay. >> well, they don't cancel each other out. because the idea is that people go take a run. right? say you run 25 minutes on a hot day, then you stop in at starbucks on the way out and have a glass of orange juice and a muffin, you have just negated caloriewise the value of your run. just like that. in fact, in 20 seconds you can negate the value of something that took you 0 minutes to sweat through. >> lawrence o'donnell, you seem like a really fit guy. >> i have not exercised in my adult life. as rick stengel very well knows. but you're a runner, you're a constant exercise guy. >> i love exercise.

i feel much better after exercise, but i don't exercise to lose weight. i exercise -- >> just to get out of the house, get away from the kids. >> okay. >> i exercise with my kids. >> i think it is necessary for us to underline the fact, in all seriousness -- >> oh. oh. serious. >> if you ask doctors, they'll tell you exercise is not only good for you, but it is necessary. all you're saying here is if you want to lose weight, stop eating. >> yes. but it's pretty much the simple physics of it, how many calories you take it versus how many calories you expend. so much easier to take in calories than extend them. that is what it comes down to, and that exercise that we think of as this automatic component of losing weight is a myth. that's not really the case. >> we've got really a great exhibit, chris, our executive producer in the control room, take a quick shot of the control room. chris went on weight watchers six months ago and he weighed

847 pounds. now chris is not a really tall guy. lost 50 pounds! >> what? >> 50 pounds on weight watchers. moderately -- >> where was the 50 pounds? he looks the same to me. >> no. you were once again heavily medicated. >> i don't check ohim out as closely as mike barnicle does. >> i have never been on a diet in my life. >> lawrence is always advocate ing for that. >> richard, about every five years there is a new truth that comes out. right? this is the latest truth. five years ago it was walking doesn't matter. what really matters is lifting weights, it builds muscle, muscle helps you burn calories,

it's metabolic. >> i have an instant fact about that. i said tell me about this thing muscle versus fat. we did look at it. basically a pound of muscle burns just a few more calories than a pound of fat does. even if you turn ten pounds of fat into ten pounds of muscle, that would allow you one tablespoon -- one teaspoon of butter a day extra than you would have had otherwise. >> so a negligible difference. five years ago when they were saying it is huge, it wasn't huge. >> the biggest point about the new truth, "time" magazine always come out with that new truth so you must have a cover back there in the files about the benefits of exercise for losing weight. >> absolutely, i've got that cover somewhere. >> there have been plenty of people who have been saying this for years, including us. so absolutely. >> bottom line, it's good to move, and it's good to eat less. if you eat less and move, you'll lot weighs. >> yes.

>> peggy, i've seen you around the reservoir jogging. >> you've never seen me jog, honey, but you have seen me walk. >> i'm exaggerating. >> thank you. >> all right. if she's walking faster, it's only because mike barnicle's 20 yards behind her in the sunglasses. >> that's who that was! >> richard stengel with "cops" following him. richard stengel, thanks so much. the new cover is "the myth." i have a lot of reading to do this weekend. "the myth about exercise." we'll be right back on "morning joe" when we return. tools are uncomplicated? nothing complicated about a pair of 10 inch hose cla pliers. you know what's complicated? shipping. shipping's complicated. not really. with priority mail flat rate boxes from the postal service shipping is easy. if it fits, it ships anywhere in the country for a low flat rate. that's not complicated. come on.

how about...a handshake. alright. priority mail flat rate boxes only from the postal service. a simpler way to ship. is if you run into a friend and you want to share a photo one, with a flick, there's an app for that. if you want to share contact info with a bump, there's an app for that. or if you just want to share some down time, well, there's an app for that too, because there's an app for just about anything. only on the iphone.

welcome back to "morning joe." 8:00 in the morning here on east coast, but we start out west, the home of one lawrence o'donnell. 5:00 in the morning as we look at the jam cam in l.a. here we go. this is las vegas. bask in this just for a little bit. soak up the glow, drink it in. that wasn't long enough. >> st. louis, sun rises over the arch. beautiful shot. how about philly, the city of brotherly love? little overcast. how about our nation's capital? not a great morning. let's go to the big apple, south from the top of the rock as we prepare for the yankees and red socks. four games in the bronx beginning tonight. >> this morning we are getting women walkers across central

park to barnicle alert. it is a little foggy out there this morning, a little hazy. beware of elderly gentlemen wearing sunglasses walking through the park. chance of creepiness, 100% today. >> do you have a window, mike, just to warn the people what time you might be out in the park today? >> 11:15 until 1:00. >> the lunch crowd. stay home. >> my gosh. a lot to talk about today. poll numbers out. new quinnipiac poll number out, not good news for the president. we have town hall meetings going on across america. president obama finding himself in a terrible position. lot of people on the left, a lot of progressives thinking he's not going far enough on health care an warning him that he had better go left. lot of conservatives on the right very concerned that he's spending too much money. it's a tough situation. meanwhile, on capitol hill, the outlines of a possible

bipartisan plan starting to take shape. reports coming out of washington last night. we will give you the outline to that. we have lawrence o'donnell here to tell you why the president and the health care plan are doomed. >> no, no, no. in trouble. in trouble. >> in trouble. no, you said he was doomed before. >> never used the word. never used the word. >> you said his health care plan was going the way of led zeppelin, about to crash and burn. >> no, i said it was in trouble. >> somebody switched your meds! >> roll the tape. >> let's do it quick, a three-story grind with willie geist. >> start in the senate, they're set to hold a confirmation vote for supreme court nominee judge sonia sotomayor today. her seat on the bench is nearly assured after another two republicans announced their support yesterday. meanwhile, the senate will also vote today on a plan to add another $2 billion to the cash for clunkers program.

drivers will have until september to trade in their gas guzzlers for more fuel-efficient vehicles. for the first time in 4 1/2 months, american journalist euna lee and laura ling are waking up as free united states citizens. the two arrived in california yesterday after former president bill clinton negotiated their release from north korea. >> we were taken to a location and when we walk in through the doors, we saw standing before us president bill clinton. we were shocked, but we knew instantly in our hearts that the nightmare of our lives was finally coming to an end and now

we stand here home and free. >> great moment there yesterday in burbank. there have been some people saying this was a mistake and in fact dangerous for president clinton to legitimize the north korean regime by making this trip. >> wow, ridiculous. thank you. republicans -- the thing i like about republicans, is while they have objected in the past to supreme court justices, they don't turn these nomination fights into blood sport like democrats have. time an time again. i actually like that. i think that's the one time republicans have shown restraint. now they decide for the first time they're going to aggressively vote against a nominee, they pick a female hispanic. could there timing be any worse? >> oh, i don't think so. >> i don't either! what is wrong with them? >> look. you know how i stand on this. i thought barack obama when he was a young united states

senator made a mistake and was unduly ideological when he voted on -- i think on ideological line -- against roberts and against alito when they were nominated to the high court. >> in a way we were critical of him and said, how could you ever vote against a man as qualified as john roberts? >> they were mainstream, serious, high lly credentialed jurists. >> neither you nor i, let's get it out there, neither you nor i, if we were picking supreme court justices would put sonia sotomayor in our top 1,000 choices. she is not our type of justice. at the same time, the insanity of deciding as a republican party for the first time to vote against somebody en masse, picking a hispanic female seems about as short-sided and stupid as any political move this year.

>> i think so. you can't only look at these questions politically. but politically is there a real downside to opposition? i think there is. i think this is going to work anyway. it is an odd thing to me that those who knew that the sotomayor nomination will be successful. it is almost odd to me that they're not saying, okay, i understand. the president was elected, he picked somebody. she is a mainstream jurist, let it go. >> remember, a lot of these people that are wringing their hands and are so shocked, how could we have ever voted for ruth bader ginsburg and stephen breyer without a second thought? >> this is about republican primaries. john mccain votes against the supreme court nominee for the first time in his life. first time in his career because he has a challenge on his right.

that's the thing with the republican votes. it is all about the primaries. obama's vote was not ideological, it was political, exactly like mccain's. obama was trying to communicate i am on the left. >> let's look at a new poll, quinnipiac poll out today, president's approval rating down, lawrence o'donnell, to 50%. >> ooh. >> yeah. it continues to drop. then we had some quinnipiac polls earlier this morning. show these, president being upside down on health care reform. 39% people only approve of his health care reform. you can say progressives are upset that he's not going far enough. but on bipartisanship, america wants democrats and republicans to start coming together. do you want health care reform if it is only a democratic plan? only 36% of americans want that. lawrence o'donnell, help the president out. help the congress out. speak for progressives. how does he pass this? >> i don't know.

there is absolutely no model out there of how you go from here to the finish line of this legislation. i can't sit here right now and invent what that is. they've made some of the mistakes that have been made in the past, but in general, you have a fundamental problem trying to legislate this stuff no matter which way you go. and so -- it's basically the polls say, yeah, we want health care reform. then the polls say, oh, i don't want that health care reform. what you're doing with the public basically is saying, do you want a new car? yeah, i want a new car. they'll say how much is it, what color is it? i don't want a green one, i want this one. >> a lot of the polling out of the past couple weeks, "washington post" poll shows 75% of americans like the car they have. >> that's the problem, is this car better than the car i have? that's what you're really finding in the polls. they're in a struggle right now that i don't see -- i personally don't see the legislative key to how you get across the finish line. things will get worse in august, they always do. there are many reasons why -- >> you've said that before.

and you are right. you were right and so many of us didn't see this coming to this degree. how did you know things were going to be worse in august? >> i went through this in '94 with hillary clinton. i was in the room that max baucus has now where they have the six senators trying to negotiate. >> august is always the cruelest of months for health care. >> for any legislation, but especially the complex legislation because the longer a piece of legislation hangs out there, the more things you find wrong with it. there are more ways to object to it. the truth of it is, there are things wrong with all of these bills. these are not pure goods. look, one of the great lost histories of '94, we in the senate finance committee got a bill out earlier than this. we combined it with a bill that came out of senator kennedy's chit, it went out on the senate floor before the august recess for about four days. very simple amendments were

offered after very simple amendments. every single one of those republican amendments got an identical vote on the senate floor and that vote was 100-0 in favor. what the republicans did was simply pull up simple sentences of the bill that came from the kennedy committee, held them up to the light of day, and everyone had to vote against them because everybody thought, boy, that's a valid point. >> give me the ideological temperature in what you call "the room." max baucus' room. there are six senators in there. >> it is a fascinating place right now. there is a lot of resentment about this and it always happens this way. but this is unusual because you have the biggest thing you could possibly be legislating in this country being shaped right now by people who -- six senators who represent fewer people than live in this city. the senator from wyoming represents fewer people that live on staten island. these people collectively represent 8 million people.

not one teaching hospital is represented in that room. so there is a lot of resentment. max baucus is an expert on this. ken conrad is an expert on this. there are good people in that room, but the senate is becoming very resentful of what's going on. >> i'm sure they are. but again, these people represent a group that is underrepresented, i think, in washington right now, moderates. >> they control the outcome though. >> moderates usually do. you know what? a senator from oregon, hatfield, killed the balanced budget amendment in 1995. a moderate republican. we hated him! he's a pretty smart guy. sometimes it is a good check. peggy, let me show you quickly, then i'll let you comment. this is what "the washington post" is reporting the outlines of the deal from these six senators. this is what your health care bill may look like.

they decided to shave $100 billion off the proposed bill, giving coverage to 94% of americans, expand medicaid, crackdown on insurers, abandon the government option, and they will tax health care benefits. >> oh, boy. oh, boy. >> that's according to the "washington post." peggy, you know what? >> abandoning the public option? >> here's the deal. you abandon the public option, that angers the left. you tax health care benefits, that angers the right. >> and the left. the unions do not want taxing health care benefits. >> i think the biggest mistake the democrats made, obama, the house and the senate, is that they scared people. i think people feel -- excuse me, i think people more than ever, more than two years ago and four years ago, they feel a

smaller mar gun for error in their lives and they feel a smaller margin for error for their country. the economy's in rough shape. we're not sure of the future. people feel anxious about any large change that has so many potentially damaging parts of it. and they control so much of the economy. >> the last time health care reform was tackled in '93, '94, america's entire economy was resetting. the industrial age was ending as we knew it. bill clinton got elected in '92. people were nervous. look what's happened. the same thing happened here. the economy resettled september 15, 2008. the next year we decide to change one-fifth, one-sixth of the economy. the parallels, again, unbelievable. and we were in transition. is it surprising when we're in transition when people don't know what's coming next, when

you've got the government saying we're going to change your health care, that it makes people nervous. >> the problem with all these bills that has not been identified yet is that none of them provide universal coverage. the others provide 95%. this is 94%. at the end of the day people are going to say we're doing -- >> guys, i'm getting yelled at. we got to go. can republican senators afford to vote against sonia sotomayor today. peggy and i wonder why politically. talking to senator robert menendez next. you're watching "morning joe." at 155 miles per hour, andy roddick

has the fastest serve in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed. ...on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't. so i can book travel plans faster, check my account balances faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than andy roddick. (announcer) "switch to the nations fastest 3g network" "and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free".

i am glad that in the senate finance committee there have been a couple of republicans, chuck grassley, olympia snowe,

who have been willing to negotiate with democrats to try and produce a bill, but they haven't yet, and i think at some point, some time in september, we're just going to have to make an assessment. if it is deficit neutral, if it's instituting the kinds of reforms that will improve quality and reduce costs, then that's what i want. >> with us now, democratic senator of emergency emergency, member of the finance and budget committee, senator robert menendez. also talking with us in a minute about health care, the financial analyst dubbed "dr. doom" by his colleagues because he was one of the only ones predicting the current financial collapse years ago. the author of "how to profit from the coming economic collapse, crash proof." peter schiff. senator, start with you. talk about sonia sotomayor. looks like republicans are deciding to pick judge sotomayor as the first nominee in quite some time to vote against. what's your reaction to that?

>> well, it's pretty astounding considering the fact that you have in judge sotomayor someone who as a nominee has more federal judicial experience than any other nominee for the supreme court in the last century. someone who has fidelity to the constitution, the rule of law, precedent, in essence all of the qualifications that republicans say they want to see in a judge. and when they finally get someone like that who happens to be a latina, the fastest growing part of the american population, they vote no. >> of course, these are the same republicans who were shocked that democrats voted against john roberts just a few years ago. >> well, you know, the reality is that i have a feeling that john roberts may have gotten more democratic votes than judge sotomayor will get republican votes. and if you look at several of those other judges that were named by president bush, the reality is i think they will have done much better than the

vote will see by republicans today. >> did you vote for john roberts? >> i did not. i wasn't there for the vote. >> you were not there for the vote. >> yeah. >> what about alito? >> i did not vote for judge alito. >> why did you not vote for judge alito? >> when i sat down with judge alito and asked him a series of questions about precedent and rule of law, and for example was roe v. wade settled law, in essence did we have the precedence already in place, his answer to me was, well, it's still being litigated. and, well, that could be true of any case. we could bring back a white supremacist and want to litigate brown versus the board of education and that case would be litigated. would that mean it is not settled law? i don't think so. on that and several other answers he gave me i just could not see my way to support him. >> peggy? >> senator, i'm going to go off judge sotomayor for a second and just thinking politically. barack obama won new jersey in 2008. i think he won it pretty

handily. you have a democratic gubernatorial candidate this year, jon corzine, who some polls say he's down 12% or 14% or 15%. my goodness, what happened in only six, nine months, to tip new jersey in this sense where they're very much for a democratic presidential candidate but they're rethinking a democratic governor? what's going on there? >> well, there is a lot of -- first of all, that's today. it's not november. i think there is a lot of opportunity for governor corzine to achieve victory in this race. especially as he continues to define his opponent which is largely undefined. finally i would simply say, a lot of economic challenges that new jersey has been facing as part of the national challenge is part of the complicating factor here. but the difference was that governor corzine was trying to rectify the structural imbalances that existed in the state's budget before the fiscal

challenge that the nation faces in this deep recession that came along and the confluence of both has somewhat hurt him but i think he's got a great story to tell and i think he will succeed at the end of the day. >> senator menendez, thanks so much, good to see you again. big, big problems in new jersey. big problems in connecticut. big problems in illinois. a lot of very blue states. >> i can't remember the number obama won new jersey by but it was healthy. >> 15, 20 points. >> my goodness, that's a 30-point shift from one democrat to another within a nine-month period. that is kind of amazing. >> you talk about another amazing shift, senator obama won connecticut, i believe by 25 percentage points. right now the incumbent senator chris dodd down by double digits. that's about a 35-point, 40-point shift right now. >> so much of it is about taxes, i think. every time i talk to jersey people, federal, state, local, property, they're dying of

taxes. >> i will tell you what's going to hurt chris dodd and other democrats right now in connecticut, they're talking about raising taxes again. let's bring in peter schiff right now. connecticut didn't have an income tax until the early 1990s. now we're having a budget problem. once again, even with the republican governor, we're talking about raising taxes in connecticut. again, i will say it again and i'm sorry if liberals don't like hearing this -- this is just like '93 and '94. taxes were going up not only at the national level but on the state and the local level. and it was really -- it was like shooting fish in a barrel. >> one of the reasons i moved back to the east coast, i chose connecticut over new york or new jersey, was because there were lower taxes. now i employ i think 50 people there because of the lower taxes. when they first imposed an income tax in connecticut, it was because they had budget problems and they said the solution is just to raise taxes. so they raised taxes and now we

have even bigger budget problems. what connecticut should have done instead of imposing an income tax, rein in government spending, force government to cut spending then and connecticut still wouldn't have an income tax or have these problems. >> peter, you're a guy who achieved youtube fame, been on a lot of shows, because you predicted early on, '03 i think, '04, '05 that we were going to crash, that the housing problems were going to cause this crash. not a lot of people want you to run against senator dodd. people have jumped on your train. are you going to run against chris dodd? >> there is a good chance i will. i don't have an official campaign but i have an exploratory committee. i have a website, schiffforsenate.com. everything they've done thus far has simply made the situation worse. we're in the eye of the storm right now. >> i've read you saying that,

actually, things may be a little calmer today, but you say, again, dr. doom as they have avenue called you, you say things are going to get much worse in the future. why? >> we've calmed the financial crisis. but what led to the financial crisis is an economic crisis. that is yet to fully play out. we have a structurally flawed economy, based on borrowing money from the rest of the world, then using the money to buy stuff, mostly imported things. you cannot have an economy like that. this is a disaster in the making. all we've done is gone deeper into debt in the last year and we've covered up the symptoms because we've been able to borrow so much more money. but as the global economy recovers, as they get out from under all their bad loans to the u.s., they aren't going to be lending us any money anymore. the dollar's going to keep falling, interest rates will rise, consumer prices will rise, now ben bernanke is going to be forced to raise interest rates. >> something that you say, it's

surprising to hear that again this morning. i'm sure it has to be concerning the obama administration. we had richard haas, the president of the cfr, on earlier this morning and he said, they're going to have to raise interest rates statement to be able to borrow money from across the globe. at the same time unemployment's going up. at the same time the economy's going down. and this is going to cause a horrible -- >> it is not just going to be small increases, quarter points. we're talking serious, serious interest rate hikes, maybe even into the double digits. if you think about the situation the u.s. government is in right now -- >> like 1979, 1980. >> higher potentially. we have a lot more problems, we're much more deeply indebted than then. back then we had long-term debt. right now the government relies on short-term financing. the government made the same mistake that subprime borrowers made. they borrowed money not for 30 years but for 30 days. as interest rates go up, it's increasingly more difficult to service that debt.

>> which increases it exponentially. >> let me talk to you about connecticut. you talk about your exploratory committee running for the united states senate. you just said, correctly so, we're borrowing enormous sums of money from overseas, from china specifically. when we get the money we buy products, wisely, from countries overseas. what do you do in connecticut to restore industries that have left connecticut decades ago? to my mind, they're never coming back. how do you provide jobs in connecticut? >> they have to come back. we've been living in a fantasy economy to say that we don't have to make stuff. we do. what we have to look at is how is it that we lost our industry? why did we become so uncompetitive when we used to be the most competitive nation in the world? >> so how did we? >> well, what we did is encumbered our businesses with regulation and taxes that made them uncompetitive. we need to deregulate the economy and lower taxes but we can only do that if we dramatically decrease government. sut some of the spending. >> you say deregulate the

economy. critics will say isn't that what we did on wall street? isn't that what got us into this mess? >> no, it is the opposite. the reason we're in trouble on wall street is because of regulation and moral hazard. the federal reserve set interest rates. not the market, the fed. the fed made a mistake putting interest rates much too low. as a result we had too much borrowing, not enough saving. >> cheap money. >> yes. then you had fannie and freddie that manipulated the housing market. they provided the moral hazard. they guaranteed mortgages. therefore, when people around the world were loaning money to americans to buy homes, they didn't really care about the underlying creditworthiness. >> on the other side also, you have people like paulson go to capitol hill when he was at goldman getting 40-1 ratio in leveraging. >> but they couldn't have leveraged up if the fed didn't give them the money. that is the moral hazard that the rates were so low.

>> do you support 40-1 leveraging? is that okay? >> if they can get it in the private market. if creditors know that no company is too big to fail, if you want to lend money to an institution that is leveraged 40-1, you might not get your money back. >> peggy? >> you know what? get real for a second. what are you imagining? emergency legislation that would say we need conditions that allow people in connecticut to have small factories in which they make shoes that we can sell in the united states? you want emergency legislation that allows you to have what? no unions? no regulation? what are you looking for? >> it is not emergency legislation. we just have to restore competitiveness. when the world stops giving us their stuff -- that's the bottom line. all the consumer goods we're getting, we're basically getting for free because we aren't exporting anything. that's free money. >> what i'm asking is, is it really possible we can make things here again? everybody wants to but i think they look at the government and think, it's too complicated, they'll never amount, we can't

do it. >> we're going to have to. if we want to consume things we have to make things. if we don't make anything we're not going to consume anything and we won't be living in an economy that has anywhere the standard of living we have today unless we restore competitiveness. >> on the issue of the day, what's your position on health care reform? >> health care is another example where the government interfered with the free market to drive up health care costs. it is the same way they've driven up education costs. problem with health care is one, too much involvement in health care and the government subsidies to the insurance industry, which has forced health care prices up. if you look at the one area of health care where government isn't involved, cosmetic surgery, prices have been coming down. look at breast augmentation or hair transplants. >> discussions are very good for bringing those prices down. so you're a no vote against health care reform. >> i think we need health care reform but not the type of reform that the president has in mind. we need to reempower the markets. we need to put the patient back in control of medical expenses. we need competition.

>> no extension of coverage for the uninsured. >> i think if the government got out of it -- >> you want to abolish medicare? that would be getting out of it. >> i think medicare's done a lot of harm. it's help drive up health care costs. >> are your parents on health care? >> well, my father. >> is he being harmed by it? >> he's in a special situation. look -- >> he's baiting you. don't go with this guy! >> either we've got -- you need to come back. i'm serious. i am serious. let's get you two guys back because we go to go, chris is yelling at me. i would just like to hear you guys go back and forth. will you do that, peter? >> sure, i'd like to have a long debate on the health care issue. >> that's great. we'll do that. the book is "crash proof how to profit from the coming economic collapse." go on youtube and put peter's name in there. you'll be shocked by what you see. next, meryl streep's new movie "julie and julia." in theaters tomorrow. great movie. we'll speak to the director,

norah ephron. next up, cnbc's national superstar someone i'm trying to run for senator in new york, senator burnett. i like how it sounds. keep it on "morning joe." ♪ [ female announcer ] arthritis targets your body where it's weak. where it's vulnerable. ♪ tylenol arthritis works with your body to block the pain, without interfering with certain high blood pressure medicines like aleve sometimes can. ♪ so you don't just feel better, you feel better knowing doctors recommend tylenol more than y other brand of pain reliever. ♪

is is my verizon small business specialist, tom. now, i know the catering business but when i walked in here i wasn't sure what i needed. i'm not sure what i need. tom showed me how to use mifi to get my whole team working online, on location. i was like, "woah". woah ! only verizon wireless has small business specialists in every store to help you do business better. you're like my secret ingredient. come in today and connect up to five devices on one 3g connection. now only $99.99

jobless numbers are out. cnbc's international superstar, erin burnett.

>> here are the jobless claims. this is the most important number we get every week. they did fall last week. this doesn't mean we have fewer people filing for them. still obviously job losses. 550,000 is the number that we are getting. on a relative basis it does show some improvement. the four-week average which does smooth out some of the bumps you can get in the road is coming out at the lowest level we have seen since the end of january. some improvement. tomorrow we'll get the overall national unemployment numbers. there is still going to be grimes but this is a case where we celebrate an improvement in the problem, the problem getting less big or at a less significant rate. the president we all know said very clearly he won't consider the recession over until the jobless problem has gone away, which is one of those things that you sort of think, okay, that's obvious but everyone else is going to be trumpeting the end of this recession maybe a year before that actually happens. >> let me ask you, a lot of people have been predicting we'll see 10% unemployment rates

possibly this next month. do these numbers suggest a leveling that we may not get that high? >> it's hard to say. most people, joe, think we will go to 10% or a little bit higher. maybe leveling off a little bit below that. there was a point where we saw an increase of .5% or .4% every month. we aren't seeing that rate of increase but the unemployment rate will likely continue to go up. not just those who are unemployed, people who are giving up looking for a job or reducing hours. that number is double digits. 16%, 17%. >> this morning we had peter schiff on, of course haines' best friend. saying interest rates will rise, that's the only way to get money from china and other countries in the future. is that a concern on the street?

>> a few weeks ago it was maybe a bigger concern. some people are out there who right now have told me several big investors that their single biggest bet right now is betting interest rates go way up. talking back to where we were in the early '80s, 15%, 20%. >> god, that's what we just heard here today. that would be crippling. >> yes, but it may happen. the other side is equally as vocal. they make a crucial point which is that we have a lot of capacity built up during the bubble to make everything from houses to cars. that capacity is around the world. we are not utilizing it. as long as we're not utilizing the capacity we have, we have a deflation problem, not an inflation problem. argument are passionate. i know where mr. schiff falls but the other side has a point, too. >> erin burnett, thank you so much. >> good to see you. >> you are an international superstar. keep up the fight in the genocide in australia of camels.

power to the people. >> all right, joe. >> erin accused the prime minister of australia of genocide against camels because they fly overhead, shoot down. cnbc asia calls up saying we've been trying to get the prime minister to sit down with us. thanks, erin. >> i have breaking news. i can't say exactly where this took place but last night, i slept under the same roof as sarah palin. i can't say where this happened. i will give you a hint. mike barnicle slept under that same roof also. can't say where it is though because we can't have the barnicle groupies outside the door. >> i am flinching. >> could it be a major new york hotel? >> maybe it is kind of like when the beatles stayed at the warwick. she directed "sleepless in seattle" and "you've got mail." now norah ephron talks about her

new prelim when we come back. there's an app for that. or, you'd like to figure out the metro, there's an app for that. or you'd like to send a postcard home, there's an app for that too, because there's an app for just about anything. only on the iphone. she is the greatest thing ever.

woman: one little smile, one little laugh. - honey bunny. - ( coos ) we would do anything for her. my name is kim bryant and my husband and i made a will on legalzoom. man: it was really easy to do. - ( blows raspberries ) - ( laughing ) robert shapiro: we created legalzoom to help you take care of the ones you love. go to legalzoom.com today and complete your will in minutes.

i'm going to try to flip this thing over now, which is a rather daring thing to do. >> she changed everything. before her, it was can openers and marshmallows. >> don't knock marshmallows. >> if you're alone in the kitchen, who's to see? you've just got to practice. like piano. i'm julia child. bon appetit! >> bon appetit! >> bon appetit! >> there is a clip from "julie and julia" which debuts tomorrow. i have to tell my wife, she's such a huge fan. you're such a legendary screen writer and selector. norah ephron. as i've told you time and time again, we are such huge fans of yours in our family. >> thank you. >> i've seen "you've got mail" like 47 times.

my wife always comes in and sees me tearing up when the book store's shutting down and the dog comes around the corner. >> "when harry met sally." >> oh, god, my greatest hits. thank you. thank you. >> but this, i think my wife is the most excited about this. my god, meryl streep. >> it's not just for girls neither. >> i loved this movie. i was at the premier, thanks to norah. i loved this movie. be warned though -- you will be very hungry watching this movie. don't have the popcorn because you'll want to go out and eat the food that you see in the movie. >> tell us this story for those who didn't read the book. >> this is a movie about two women, one of them is a young woman in queens who decided about seven or eight -- six years ago to cook all 524 recipes in the famous julia child cookbook which is an act of madness, and write a blog about it. and it's her story cut with the

story of the things julia child, played by meryl streep and her ten years of writing this cookbook that changed the world. it may not have changed -- you may not know this, but it really did change the world. >> i read your book. i'm sorry i forget the title. i read the book about your neck. the parts that actually jumped out at me were you describing the cooking and your journey through life and how you tried all of these -- you were the original foodie. weren't you? >> i was not the only one. when i came to new york, there were sings you had to do. this was a while ago. you had to go to the clinic to get your birth control pills and you had to have a copy of julia child's cookbook and a copy of "catch-22." those three things and you could enter adulthood in new york city. i learned in this insane

obsessive, competitive, crazy way to cook a huge number of recipes. and we all did it, we all served the book which none of us could pronounce and i still really can't, and the actors kept saying how do you pronounce it and i kept telling them and they're all pronouncing it wrong in the movie. and that was how you entered in. it's very different from today when you just order in. >> how did julia child change the world by writing a cookbook? what does that mean? >> well, that cookbook was the beginning of the end of opening a can of mushroom soup and pouring it over potatoes, which i do not want to knock, because if i grew up on it, it was good. but people really began to cook. they understood that cooking, even french cooking, was an accessible thing.

she made you think you could do it. it is very different from some of the stuff i see on the foot channel now, which i look at and i think, if that's cooking, what do i do? because it's so elaborate. it's so wild, those guys with their knives and so frightening. you know? i understand there's a kind of irony to it, but not enough. you know? but she, julia child, really, she was so divine. she was so darling. she was so kind of inept on the show, especially the first few years. she was out of breath and you had no idea if she was going to get through it. there's one show, one of my favorites, the chicken show. because even she did at wgbh and they didn't know what they were doing either. no one had done a food show and no one understood how many cameras you need. you're watching this show and

the camera just flies up to the ceiling and stays there looking at the ceiling. julia kind of goes on talking, then the camera comes back down and finds her again. you can't believe how amateurish and charming it was. and how it made you think, i can do this. >> did you know her? >> did you know her in boston? >> meryl streep is stunning. stunning. she is julia child. >> as always. >> what prepares you for directing meryl streep? >> oh, well, you can do it, let me tell you. >> you just say "action"? >> you just say "action," i'm not kidding. she read everything. she had watched the tape. she'd made some very clear decisions about not doing julia after julia was real good at being julia. but at the -- you know, before, she's amazing. >> she's gist the best. >> she is, yeah. >> she is the best we have. >> we can agree on that. >> we agree on so many things.

norah, thanks so much. >> thank you for having me. >> will you come back after you rest a little bit? we can talk politics. >> oh, i think you can twist my arm. >> all right. norah ephron, thank you. "julie and julia" debuts tomorrow. that means i will be watching it with susan tomorrow night. we'll be right back. (music plays) when you think about all you can do in an all-wheel-drive subaru... you'll find there is a lot to love. that's why we created the subaru a lot to love event. where you can get a great deal on any new 2009 subaru. and see theee really is a lot to love. hurry in and lease a 2009 impreza for $179 ppr month. now through august 31st. when i really liked to be outside, i did not like suffering from nasal allergy symptoms like congestion. but nasonex relief may i say... bee-utiful!

prescription nasonex is proven to help relieve indoor and outdoor nasal allergy symptoms like congestion, runny and itchy nose and eezing. (announcer) side effects were generally mild and included headache. viral infection, sore throat, nosebleeds and coughing. ask your doctor about symptom relief with nasonex. and save up to $15 off your refills. go to nasonex.com for details, terms and conditions.

they work to make a difference. to make an impact. to improve the lives of others. they're people in positions of great power. the power to effect change. for them, career advancement is a goal. but not the only goal. for them, it's not about the money.

although money is always nice. it's not about a corner office. it's about a greater good. there's a school for people like this. an online university where advanced degrees advance the quality of life. walden university. a higher degree. a higher purpose. five co-workers are working from the road using a mifi, a mobile hotspot that provides up to five shared wifi connections. two are downloading the final final revised final presentation. - one just got an e-mail. - what?! - huh? - it's being revised again. the co-pilot is on mapquest. - ( rock music playing ) - and tom is streaming meeting psych-up music from meltedmetal.com. that's happening now with the new mifi from sprint, the mobile hotspot that fits in your pocket. sprint. e now network. deaf, hard of hearing and people with speech disabilities access www.sprintrelay.com.

good thursday morning to you. i'm meteorologist bill karins with your business travel forecast. much of the country is calm today. we have a little bit of light rain out there, areas around washington, d.c. and philadelphia, so possible airport delays there. west coast, everything is looking pretty nice in l.a., phoenix, seattle. temperatures are cooler though definitely in the northwest. have a great day. lots of discounts on car insurance.

can i get in on that? are you a safe driver? yes. discount! do you own a home? yes. discount! are you going to buy online? yes! discount! isn't getting discounts great? yes! there's no discount for agreeing with me. yeah, i got carried away. happens to me all the time. helping you save money -- now, that's progressive. call or click today. has the fastest hands boxing has ever seen. so i've come to this ring to see who's faster... on the internet. i'll be using the 3g at&t laptopconnect card. he won't. so i can browse the web faster, email business plans faster. all on the go. i'm bill kurtis and i'm faster than floyd mayweather. (announcer) switch to the nation's fastest 3g network and get the at&t laptopconnect card for free.

hey, kids! this is the part of the show where we talk about what we learned today. willie if. >> i learned something new with julia child. i didn't know the blogger, angle. i'm going to see it this weekend. >> peggy if. >> it is a vicious rumor that you have to exercise to get or stay slim. huh-uh. you just eat. >> mike, what's your excuse for following women around central park now? >> it wasn't me. it wasn't me. but i learned that unlike most of the players on the red sox/yankee games this coming weekend, norah ephron has never struck out. >> i learned it is easy to direct meryl streep. something i already knew. >> and i learned sarah palin is at the -- >> no! >> she's in town. >> sarah palin is at the ritz-carlton -- hold on. hold on.

battery park. >> i didn't do it! that was fun. that was fun. okay. i learned that interest rates are going to go to 20%. happy days here again. william. >> from mr. schiff, too. he said double digits. >> he did. >> i thought duth digits might just mean 10% though. didn't think 20%. >> let's hope we aren't talking about the whole jimmy carter experience again. that was a bad trip. by the way, i also learned "julie and julia" out tomorrow. i also learned by talking to my wife, we're going to watch it tomorrow night. william. it is "morning joe." the "morning meeting" with dylan ratican starts right now. my objective is to be real and to learn to be emotional and to, you know, use emotion to

connect with people. >> topping our agenda today, the man in the mirror. a new youtube video manifesto in fact from the gunman accused in that aerobics class shooting rampage in pennsylvania. he ram balances on and takes us on a tour of his home. and for that matter, his mind. we'll play his entire statement here on the "morning meeting." good morning, i am dylan ratican. a story straight out of hollywood, a cliffhanger. a woman caught on tape stopping for her murdered husband except he wasn't dead. it was an elaborate set-up by police to bust her for hiring a hit man. then democracy or deception? health care hecklers raiding town halls. now a recess rally being planned for later this month. but is the american uprising just smoke and mirrors to distract the american people from the opportunity to improve their health care