his fellow conservative republicans? that's in the politicses fix tonight. what is it about john boulton that has hillary clinton laughing at him on television? that's in the "sideshow." i'm laughing with her. we begin with what happened today, today's better than expected unemployment jobs figures, what does it mean for president obama. in a moment be in's chief white house correspondent chuck todd will join us. susan page, washington bureau chief for "usa today." you write the big stories for the people. the "usa today" is right there on every hotel doorstep. >> you can buy it at newsstands here. >> you always sell here. let me ask you what do you make of the president's optimistic tone? let's watch the president today around 1:00 in the afternoon east coast time talking up the economy for the first time in a while. >> we're pointed in the right direction. we're losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when i took office. we've pulled the financial

system back from the brink and a rising market is restoring value to those 401(k)s that are the foundation of a secure retirement. >> susan, i guess he's getting to the heart of what people are worried about. somebody once said to me a while ago what his opposition will be offering in the next election next year is we'll give it to you back. whatever you lost in the stock market the last couple years, whatever you lost in your 401(k), we're going to give it back to you, and he can't do it. now, he's saying i'm giving it back to you. >> and now he can say my program is working, and, you know, the timing could not be sweeter for barack obama. this is -- the next couple weeks, a lot of engagement on health care. health care will either begin to get sold or fail in the next couple weeks. he goes into this period being able to say unemployment has actually dropped. i have some credibility to say that the administration is competent. you know, it's sort of like the way katrina undermined george bush on any number of fronts because it made his administration look incompetent. this makes the administration get talking points that the economic program is working, trust us also to tackle health

care. >> what did you make of the "new york times" lead story that said there is the stimulus that was passed earlier this year in early spring is working. >> well, it said it has had some effect, a lot of debate about that. it may not be -- it's not the only factor that goes into these -- the slightly better economic news, but you've got to think if you pump $787 billion, begin to pump that into the economy, it's going to have an effect. >> you know, let me bring in chuck, chuck todd. i studied economics. i was in grad school in economics. one thing you learned from keynesian economics if you stimulate the economy through a big fiscal deficit, it's going to be almost $2 trillion, it has got to jack up the economy and put juice into it. we're now seeing that beginning to turn. in other words, we're reaching perhaps the end of the actual recession. in other words, the part of restricted growth, lower growth, negative growth, earlier than we thought because of all this spending and all this deficit. >> well, that's right, and they also feel, you know, it was funny, i want to pick up on

something susan said, there's a feel of i told you so in the tone of the president last night at the fund-raiser in virginia and a little more tempered but saying, hey, see, look, we told you this is how the stimulus was going to work. we had to do all these things. we had to bail out the banks. we had to do that. then we had to bail out the auto industry. just give us some time on that. now, they've got this down tick and it's a very small down tick on unemployment, but, chris, i think what helps them a little more is throwing the cash for clunkers. here was a program that isn't technically a part of original stimulus program, but it was a simple, easy to grasp like, oh, here's a program of stimulus where you get money for something that seems to increase the amount of economic activity in a specific sector so it was an easy to grasp thing. pile it all together and i think it's why you saw the president today feeling a little more upbeat about things and it's going to put a little steel in the spine of democrats on

capitol hill when it comes to health care. >> you buy that, susan? that the simple aspect of the break you get on buying a car, it's about a 25% cut in the cost of a car basically, it's a hell of a discount, and you just go out and do it. it isn't complicated. you bring in your car that's getting 20 miles to the gallon or less and you buy a car that's getting you 30 miles to a gallon. that would be an ideal situation. and they pour some of this engine killer into the car in front of you like dr. kevorkian, and you come home with a brand new car. >> and how often did people say -- have you heard people say insurance companies got to bail out, the banks got a bail out, where is my bailout? this was a little bit of a sense that anybody in america could walk in with an old car and get a little bit of a bilout themselves. i think it did have an effect. you see it in barack obama approval rating. gallup shows him up to 58% approval rating. he was down as low as 52%.

>> aren't we fickle? >> very. >> you know, chuck, you and i are friends. we know -- and so is susan, but we know i'm a churchill buff. one of the tricks of churchill in winning the war against the nazi, to make a real useful mention of nazis this week for once in this crazy world, that he understood you never give too much good expectation ahead of time. he used to say as the war went on he used to say it's not the beginning of the end but maybe it's the end of the beginning. anything to reduce expectations so people would keep their up. >> the president's spokesman said we still expect 10% unemployment. explain. >> well, here is why. one of the reasons unemployment went down, the labor force in general contracted, and so they still don't see how they're going to be creating -- how new jobs are going to get created over the next three, four, five months, and so that's why they fear that, you know, when you watch this thing and while the overall trend of job losses seems to be going down, they still don't see where jobs are

going to get added yet in the next few months. that's why they think 10% is still sitting out there, and they know that becomes a psychological marker, but i want to go back to -- >> let me do this right now then you can get back. you follow up. here is the president right now saying what you said to get that on the record. >> as far as i'm concerned, we will not have a true recovery as long as we're losing jobs, and we won't rest until every american that is looking for work can find a job. >> chuck? >> right, and that's what, you know, you talk to some around here, by the way, and they say, see, this is how they can envision running their own morning in america ad. you know, where all of a sudden it's just like 1983, 1984, well 2011, 2012 will be the same way where they will have months of every month we will add jobs to the monthly payroll number rather than taking away jobs. that's how they're looking at this and saying one step at a

time. first we have to stop the job losses. >> susan, will we get down to 7% unemployment by 2012? >> 1983 and 1984 were preceded by 1982 where unemployment hit -- >> that's right. >> and the white house lost 26 seats -- >> i was part of that. i was part of that effort. >> and, you know, this time it's been good, but if 10% unemployment comes up next year and people are making their minds up for the midterms, that will be not very good news. >> are you saying ironically it might be better to have the 10% now and get it over. >> no, i think they're trying to have the good news now to get the health care through. the window for health care is not open that long -- >> they're better to have a breathing spell. do you agree, chuck? >> absolutely. what it does here is it allows them to go back to these democrats in the senate and the house and say, hey, guys, see, you walk the plank with us on the stimulus and it was just us, and we were -- we went ahead

with the republicans and you stuck with us. we're starting to see signs that are working. let's do this on a party line vote. let's just do it without the republicans. let's get health care done the same way. trust us, let's walk the plank together again, and these numbers this week i think at least helps them, i think, get senate democrats -- i can tell you this from talking to some of them, they feel a little encouraged. they feel like, okay, maybe this recovery act is working. maybe they have some evidence and maybe we should just go ahead and get health care done if we have to do it on our own with 50 votes. forget the 60. forget the bipartisan deals. so be it. >> i want to advertise later in the show we're going to show former senator clinton now secretary of state clinton laughing her butt off at some the former bush guy, this former u.s. ambassador to the u.n. said. laughing because somebody had made fun of her shusband's success at bringing back those two american reporters from

north korea. what did you make of that? chuck first and then susan. >> i think it's so great to see unity among bill and hillary and the president heartily laughing without any cue or pr involved, laughing at the absurdity of anybody saying that wasn't a good news piece for america. >> can i tell you, i was talking to one white house official who says, hey, take a look at this week as a whole. we've rescued two americans from north korea. we were able to get -- break an ethnic barrier in the supreme court and they got -- >> nine republican votes. >> nine republican votes. it was a bigger vote than alito got. oh, by the way, we may have killed the single most threatening terrorist short of osama bin laden with that guy from the taliban that it looks like that they got and is dead, and they say, you know, intelligence will show that this guy maybe was more menacing and more of a problem than osama bin laden. and, oh, by the way, look at the jobs numbers. they sit there and say to themselves, this wasn't a bad week. we did pretty well.

>> yeah. >> not a good time to go on vacation maybe. >> and walk out of here on a time. >> "usa today" you can get it anywhere you go on vacation. thank you chuck and susan v a nice weekend. it's a bufl weekend so far. coming up how much of the anti-obama anger we see out there at these congressional town halls are really rooted in the fact he's an african-american, they just don't like it. let's try to figure that out. i'm not sure what percentage of this is, but some of it is existenti existential. they don't think this guy should be our president. at your chevy dealer, but funds are going fast. so hurry. let us recycle your older vehicle and you could qualify for an additional $3500 or $4500 cash back on a new, fuel-efficient chevy.

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welcome back to "hardball." are the mobs at those town hall meetings really upset about health care reform or is this

anger deeper? is it based in ethnicity, race if you will? paul krugman wrote in today's "new york times" that the town hall protesters were quote probably reacting less to what mr. obama is doing or even about what they've heard about what he's doing than to who he is. that is the driving force behind the town hall mobs is probably the same cultural and racial anxiety that's behind the birther movement. cynthia tucker and ron brown steele is the political director for atlantic media. you're both heavy weights as journalists. i respect your opinions. when i look at those crowds:00 a and when i look at the people involved in the birther movement, i see a dichotomy in terms of class. i think some people in the birther movement are a little more rustic a little less informed and a little scared. i see the mobs, i see pinks and limes, i see middle class people that went to college, i see

people who read the paper who just don't like health care reform. what do you see, cynthia? do you see the same crowd in both? >> well, let me start out by saying, chris, there is absolutely no way to prove that people have racist motives. there's no way to know what's in people's hearts and minds. >> yeah, when they say the guy is from mombassa, okay, that's how you can tell. with no evidence whatever. when you say he's from some other country, make him as foreign as possible, that suggests motive to me. >> or when you hear people at these tea party protesters say this is america, this is no longer the country that i grew up in, this country is changing. well -- >> well, it is. >> that suggests -- >> they don't like the change. >> that suggests to me that race is part of this. can i prove it? absolutely not. do i believe it is? absolutely. do i think that's all it is?

no, i want to be careful about that. i want to be precise in my language. some people are just upset about health care reform. >> so you accept the fact that there's a mix of motives? >> absolutely. >> that some people just don't like what they're hear being this plan but some don't like the looks of barack obama. >> some don't like the looks of barack obama. >> would you agree with that basic notion. there's a crowd out there that's ethnic, earthy, people who say this guy needs gorilla glue to stay in his chair. give me a break. plaes a lot of other throughs. >> there's always that element and -- but it is not a decisive element. i think democrats would be making a very dangerous mistake if they simply reduce what's happening to a find of fundamental racial resistance against obama. there's no question that what's going on is being largely being organized by conservative groups, but it is also revealing that conservative groups are able to organize this level of activity. i mean, you know, a noted political analyst said last week

where are the crowds marching for health care reform? that was you. the npr poll last week of those 25% of the public strongly supported what obama is trying to do on health care. 39% strongly opposed. right now there does seem to be more energy in the opponents than the supporters although the opponents ever trying to gear up, and i think it would be a mistake to simply read what's happening as a racial reaction there. is an indication there of the problem the democrats face. >> it was like k.a.c.o.r.n. on e right. insect them with sodium pentothal how many would say i don't like the idea of having a black president. >> i'm just guessing. i think 45% to 65% of the people who appear at these groups are people who will never be comfortable with the idea of a black president. >> can you venture a guess? >> i would not go that far. >> how many of them would say i would really like the idea of

sarah palin to be president of the united states. what percentage? >> about the same. about the same. >> let me go to a softer overlap. how many of the overlap is between people who don't like the particular reform aspects of this, worried about rationing, costs, or taxes, and how many of the people are just cultural in love with the idea of the far right anti-big city, anti-hollywood, anti-new york, anti-washington person that -- >> i think health care is largely a function of that larger world view, but -- >> sarah palin? >> but the cultural conservatism but also a skepticism about government. white voters over the last generation with one exception of college educated white women have been very skeptical of government. a poll we did in the national journal allstate poll, does government create nor opportunity or obstacle to your personal advancement. among noncollege white men, the blue collar men, 2 to 1 creates more obstacles. the health care argument is fitting into a broader contract

obama faces. the shift doesn't appear to be as much as they were hoping. there's still a lot of skrep at this simple about government through the stimulus, through cap and trade, reefing too f-- reefing too far in the economy. there's no question there's a larger -- there is a small government constituency. you're seeing it being mobilized. the challenge is to find energy comparable to that on the other side. >> ron pointed out the large crowds that conservatives are able to mobilize against health care. they do that through misinformation. a lot -- absolutely. >> what misinformation? >> that president obama and the democrats' plans for health care reform will result in euthanasia for the elderly. there is a proposal that health care reform pay for counseling if you want it, if voluntarily

you decide that you want to talk about a living will or talk to your doctor about hospice care, end of life care, that will be paid for. well, conservatives have taken that and just lied about it outright and say basically they're going to lead the elderly out on ice floes to die. >> what about the question i raised? what aren't there people who are spontaneously doing what michael moore did in his movie a year ago "sicko," it used to be democrats liked the activity. they like people coming to rallies. democrats used to like rallies where people would come up and say i'm worried about my husband losing his job. we want portability. i'm worried about our health care plan because i did have a problem with cancer and i'm worried i'll never be insured again. i'm worried about all kinds of things. why don't democrats seize the initiative and say there's basic things we can do as a government and a people we ought to do with this president. >> there's a principal reason is there's a tension or even a

contradict between president obama's inside strategy and his outside strategy. looking to learn from clinton, the inside strategy has been to give the legislators in the house and senate the maximum flexibility to put whatever they need in each bill to get it out of each chamber and into conference where they can try to forge it into a consensus product. the cost of that, of not really ruling things in or out, is that there's no specific bill he can take to the country and say if you support health care reform, you are going to get "x," "y," and "z." even yesterday meeting with those six bipartisan negotiators in a process that seems to be increasingly on a bridge to nowhere, obama would not say explicitly whether he supported a co-op as an alternative to a public plan for example. he wants to let the senate and house do what they have to to get to a conference. but the cost of that is there's not a single clarion call where he can go to the kun and say, yes, rally for this. >> he's a cheer leader. we need a quarterback. >> absolutely. and there are some general principles that he absolutely

can go out and talk to -- >> that every adult has to be insured. why doesn't he say that now. >> you can't deny coverage to people based on a prior medical condition. and i think while the president -- the president knows he's lost control -- >> why doesn't he say those principles and dictate them over and over. >> did he in the north carolina speech. >> i think they're beginning to do that. >> i'm going to shock you. i like -- i don't like universal theaters, but here is one. because he didn't have anything to say for an hour, he was so frustrated and so tired, he went after those cops in cambridge. that's what i think. he got tired and angry as they s say. irritated. >> very rare for him -- >> absolutely. he lost his discipline. >> and he acted like a partisan in the ethnic wars in this country, and when you're black you lose the partisan wars. >> they will have another chance in september to reset this. it's possible that the bipartisan negotiations will have evaporated by then and they

can move -- >> i think he needs a break and we need a breck frak from him. don't you think he's been on the air too much? >> who else can do it as well as he can? >> we'll be right back. cynthia, you're great. it's great to have you sitting right here. i'm so lucky, i had dan balz and haynes johnson. now you guys. hillary clinton can't stop laughing. i'm so with hillary on this. the fact that the right doesn't like us bringing our people home. isn't that our job to bring americans home to america? that's what it's called, it's called defense. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. we all have confidence and we all have doubt. but when the moment comes... what's going to win? here's to confidence.

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such as bleeding may worsen. mom's diagnosis was hard to hear, but there's something i can do. (announcer) visit exelonpatch.com for free caregiving resources. . back to "hardball." time for the "sideshow." first up, want to see hillary

clinton laugh? mention john boulton, bush's hawkish u.n. ambassador who you remember needed a recess appointment to get the job back in 2005. here she is on cnn yesterday defending bill's rescue mission in north korea. >> it was not in any way an official government mission. >> but john boulton, the former u.n. ambassador -- should i even go on? >> you really shouldn't. >> he said this is rewarding hostage taking. why is he wrong? they effectively took -- >> we've done this so many times before. it had nothing to do with our policy. you mention somebody who, heavens, if president obama walked on water, he'd say he couldn't swim. >> wow, good line, good defense, good offense. john boulton, by the way, was one of the people who took us into war and would love to do it again. next, a shake-up in the governor's mansion down in south carolina. the first lady of south carolina put out a statement, a public statement today, that she was moving out of the governor's mansion leaving mark sanford,

the governor, behind. she and her four sons are moving back to her home in charleston. look, it's kind of an official thing here, an official move, official statement like that one moving out of the official residence like that one. i guess we're supposed to notice all this official business. i guess the governor is supposed to notice. who knows? lots of drama following that flight by him down to argentina. obviously, we're here at "hardball" rooting for him to get his life back together. time now for tonight's big number, whether or not you think the government's bank boilout and economic recovery package were necessary to stabilize the economy or whether you happen to think we just should let recessions come and go as they will, there's no denying they come at a cost to the government, a big one. the economy produces less in revenues, unemployment insurance and other programs run up more costs to the go. . in just the first ten months of this budget year which started october 1st, 2008, what happened to the federal deficit? where does it stand? at a record $1.3 trillion right now. that's the federal deficit. it's heading towards $2 trillion for the year, and that may

complicate the president's push for health care reform. the deficit for the year is already $1.3 trillion, tonight's "big number." keeps growing. coming up, the white house is getting tough with left wing groups who are targeting fellow democrats in the health care debate. should democrats be fighting with democrats? rahm emanuel doesn't think so. that's next. you're watching "hardball" only on mx. the chevy open house. and now, with the cash for clunkers program, a great deal gets even better. let us recycle your older vehicle, and you could qualify for an additional $3500 or $4500 cash back... on top of all other offers.. on a new, more fuel efficient chevy. your chevy dealer has more eligible models to choose from - more than ford, toyota, or honda. so save gas... and money... now during the chevy open house. go to chevy.com for details. this is humiliating. stand still so we can get an accurate reading. okay...um...eighteen pounds and a smidge. a smidge? y'know, there's really no need to weigh packages under 70 pounds.

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i'm julia boorstin with your cnbc market wrap. today's better than expected jobs report helped stocks extend their winning streak to four straight weeks. the dow jones industrials are up 113 points. the s&p 500 added 13. the nasdaq finished 27 points higher. the labor department says the unemployment rate held steady at 9.4%. employers cut 240,000 jobs in july. that's far less than expected

and the fewest cuts in any month since last august. shares of aig jumped more than 20% today after the insurer posted its first profit in seven quarters. earnings of $1.8 billion easily topped wall street expectations. chiquita shares drawing more than 18% today with second quarter profits and revenues both exceeding expectations. the fed says consumers paid down their credit cards again in july reducing consumer debt for the fifth straight month. that's it for cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball." welcome back to congress. welcome back to "hardball." congress is closed for business for the rest of august while anti-health care protesters show up at town hall meetings across the country. check out this ad that's running

in nebraska. >> now i hear that ben nelson, the senator that i voted for, is leading the charge to delay health reform this summer. that's exactly what they want. the health and insurance companies that have given senator nelson over $2 million know that if they can stall reform, they can kill it. i have to ask, senator, whose side are you on? if you're on my side, stay at work. my family can't wait for reform. >> the white house doesn't like that stuff at all. jonathan martin reports that rahm emanuel, the top kick at the white house, quote, warned liberal groups this week to stop running ads like that against democratic members of congress. with us now jim dean, the brother of former dnc chairman howard dean, and the childrairmf democracy for america which is sponsoring that ad you just saw. are you saying that ben nelson is in bed with the mutual of omaha and the other insurance companies out there in nebraska? are you saying he's in bed with them? you say he's taking their money.

is he in bed with them? >> here is what's going on -- >> you're saying that in the ad. so just say it now, jim. what's the different if you can say it in the ad and saying it now? >> chris, this is part of a much larger campaign that we've been involved with in our million mex members of our community have been involved with. it's a campaign of letters to the editor, petitions, 150 to 200 meetings with congressional staffers. all aimed at getting citizens to take responsibility over this debate and take responsibility over this process. the democratic party is a big tent. it's a coalition party. with he no he there's some candidates -- excuse me, senators that are going to disagree with the president's plan. we support the president's plan, and we're going to challenge those senators or other elected officials that disagree with that, but it's part of a civic debate that's going on which we think is very, very healthy and very, very important. we're not interested in intimidating people at town hall meetings. we're not going and disrupting things. we're challenging senators to engage with the voters and move

this debate forward and move this bill forward so we can have a strong public option, something that's really been part of the democratic party platform since about 1948. >> jim, that took a minute and a half. my question wasn't answered. my question was are you saying that ben nelson is in bed with the insurance industries that have given him $2 million in your ad? are you saying he's in bed with them? he's not representing people, he's representing the insurance industry? >> no. >> do you want me to show the ad again that you paid for? >> i understand -- >> you run the ad but you won't back it up. >> chris, we are challenging senator nelson -- >> you're not challenging. you condemned the guy and said he's in the tank. >> no, we pointed out it's a material fact in the debate he's accepted a large amount of money in campaign contributions from the health insurance industry and the ad really asks him to make that choice between representing -- >> no, you're saying he's leading the charge -- you said in the ad he's leading the charge in slowing down or killing this health care bill. he's leading the charge. that's what you're saying in the ad. do you want me to play it again? no, you don't.

>> don't play it again. i get what you're saying. >> you're trying to kill this guy so he'll turn around, squirm in bed for a while, and do what you want to do. >> we're not trying to kill this guy. we're trying to challenge him to engage the voters in this debate. we're pointing out as a material fact -- >> i'm smirking because you're obviously writing the cop and then coming on the show and give us the foreplay and the soft sell. let me ask you about rahm emanuel. have you gotten threatened personally by him. there's no degree of bad blood between him and your brother. is it extending to you? well, there is. everybody knows rahm emanuel doesn't like john dean -- i mean howard dean. >> first of all -- >> everybody knows that. everybody knows that. you know it. if i put you under sodium pentothal right now, you'd say yes, you're right. on television you're saying it isn't true, but it is true. rahm emanuel, did he go after you personally? >> first of all, we have not been called by the white house or anybody else about this. and frankly the white house is not reacting to the substance of what we're doing. they're reacting to the media

narrative on it which is about this kind of conflict which doesn't exist. this is not about left versus right or democrats versus democrats. this is about choosing between the voters and constituents or choosing the health insurance plans. >> are we bet are off in country if christmas comes and we have hassed a health care bill which establishes the american people's commitment to health care for everybody, everybody from a certain age, say 21, has to become enrolled in the national health care plan of some kind. everyone has to be covered. there is no more pre-existing condition stuff. there's no more -- you get portability. you can move from job -- all kinds of good things are done but not everything. we don't have a single payer option. we don't have some things that people on the left would like to have, and i think they're good options but we don't get it all but we move really there, we've never gotten there. i have watched health care die every time the democrats get in power. it died with kennedy, wouldn't help nixon. kennedy wouldn't help carter.

the clintons tried to get it all. it always fails because people want to be superstars and get it all their way. are you like that? are you like that? >> no, no, no, no, no. >> you say you're not like that. why are you trying to destroy people that don't agree with you then within the democratic family? >> chris, we're a coalition party. it's okay to have this debate among democrats. we're grown up enough to do this. we're not intimidating, not showing up at meetings and shouting people you don't. we're having a debate and challenging senators who do not agree with the president's plan to get involved and again to come over and change -- >> what do you think senator nelson of omaha thinks of your ad. as he watches himself described as the enemy of health care reform, in bed with the mutual of omaha. >> i think senator nelson should think -- >> should. we're into the subjunctive now. i asked you what do you think he thinks of your ad? he gets on -- kids watch, his grand kids i assume watch,

everybody is checking in on your ads and you're blasting away at this guy. >> right. >> daddy, grandpa, aren't you a liberal democrat? aren't a democrat? why are they attacking new. >> we're attacking him because he does not support the president's plan and -- >> this took four minutes. you're attacking him. thank you. it took him a while. first of all, there's foreplay and this history of the world part three here from you, and you finally get around to saying what you're doing. you're attacking democrats. will you be bothered that rahm emanuel, the president's ramrod, doesn't want you doing it? does that bother you personally? >> again, chris -- >> does it bother you that rahm emanuel doesn't like what you're doing? >> no, it doesn't because -- >> okay. thank you. you're great. you know, you really do make your point. go ahead. make your point. >> i'm just saying, look, this is about ultimately about civic engagement. and this is part of a much larger campaign where we are engaging with elected officials and challenging them on this, and i don't apologize for that. we're a coalition party. just as senator nelson is free

to disagree with barack obama, we're free to disagree with senator nelson on that. i don't think that's such a bad thing. >> jim dean, you're great. i'm a big fan of howard dean formally. up next -- it takes a wile to get to the truth. up in ex, will today's better than expected number, is that going to help the president slide in public aprosm. will it give him a couple months to get health care through? a little window of opportunity with the good economic news that may be saying the stimulus is working. "the politics fix" is coming up. "hardball" is coming back with machines. snbc.

coming up, another public official quits before their term ends. republican senator mel martinez follows sarah palin, quits, right in the middle of his term. has he had it with the conservatives in his party. we'll try to figure out why these guys are quitting jobs they're elected to. t"the politics fix" is next whe "hardball" comes back.

we're back. time for "the politics fix" with the politico's john than martin and the great historian doug also brinkley. he has a great new book out about one of the great presidents of all time, teddy roosevelt, it's called "the wilderness warrior." president obama soundsed an optimistic tone today. let's hear him. here is the president. >> we're pointed in the right direction. we're losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when i took office. we've pulled the financial system back from the brink and a

rising market is restoring value to those 401(k)s that are the foundation of a secure retirement. >> douglas, we're watching a president who is going through a situation with the honeymoon over. he's now got to fight for his biggest goal of his first term. if he doesn't get it, he's a loser. heavy stakes. >> there are heavy stakes. ronald reagan used to always say keep your poll numbers up above 50%. barack obama has achieved that, but there has to be some worry of the slippage in poll ratings. the problem is barack obama's stimulus package, chris, it's going to take a while to know the results of that or the bailout of general motors, some of the controversial issues. so he has to hope that this recession gets better. it seems to be, and if by late fall or early next winter the economy has done somewhat of a rebound, he'll be able to claim it was his economic policy that is did it. >> jonathan martin, it's hard to believe they won't be responsible. you're running a $2 trillion deficit. anybody who studies economics knows that puts so much stimulus

in the economy. it's not just the bill. it's the whole direction of the country, it's toward growth, toward action. >> right, and the hope of the obama white house is that the sort of perception of progress being made on the economy ultimately trumps the concerns about spending. if you look at the poll numbers, one of the chief concerns among americans, even some folks who are supportive of president obama, was the spending. but if they can make the case, which why they're on the numbers today, that the economy is coming back, there's light at the end of the tunnel, that may give americans some encouragement. also, chris, health care comes into this. health care is an easier sell if the american people are feeling better about the economy in general and the direction of the country in general. they're more likely to give their trust to this president i think. >> let me ask you about the dividing line between being just another president and being a transformative president, somebody who has a shot at, well, at least not getting on mt. rushmore, but at least being considered among the major presidents. isn't it about obama's ability to do something transformative

on health that's going to well, of their energy. these first, you know, 200 days into health care. you've got to get a result. there has to be major health care reform. i think this august is a tricky one for the obama administration. these town hall meetings are growing. i think that he has to get out there and sell health care. and also he's going to yellowstone and the grand canyon, talk about climate, talk about the environment. you know, august is no longer a time just to sit back in crawford or martha's vineyard i think you do have to get out there and fight in august. every year politicians sometimes think august is r and r time, and it's really a time to push your agenda forward. >> this is a hobby horse, this notion that's often promulgated in washington, nothing ever happens in august. it's emphatically untrue. the examples are many over the years. this august i think is going to be no different. this is going to be the make or break on health care. >> send his family somewhere and stay working? >> the argument is he wants a

break too, he needs to recharge his batteries. i think you're seeing him go to yellowstone, do that tour of the west. they eye it's some ways to inoculate when he does ultimately go to martha's vineyard. seeing him roughing it a little bit, going to the eastern seaboard will be easier. >> along the lines of your book, teddy roosevelt, "the wilderness warrior," here's the question. does barack obama need to do a two-pudge here, get back to cap and trade, energy, climate change in order to establish his role in history? does he have to win both? >> absolutely, chris. and i think yellowstone, where theodore roosevelt went in 1903, he's doing the two stops t.r. did in 1903. yellowstone, the grand canyon. talk about climate conservation. talk about wildlife protection. talk about the eventually solar panels that the federal government's going to do. wind farms. alternative energy. i think you want to mix the conversation up in august. half of it health care, also push forward your energy and

environmental policies. ken burns has this viewpoint te documentary coming out on the national parks. eye it's going to get a lot of attention. i think it's fortuitous timing to see the west and take his case to the people of the west. >> the members of congress, it's a big enough pill for them to swallow on health care, it's going to be tough on those guys. >> the house has already passed it. they might as well get some credit for it. >> what the senate does, it's going to be tough in the senate. >> it's better to go uphill than downhill. we'll be right back. why are so many politicians quitting? they've killed themselves. tief set their heart on office. then they walk away from it. sarah palin, mel martinez. 19 republicans have quit in the last three cycles. that's half the republican members of the senate have walked away from their careers. wl what's going on?ing fast. so hurry. let us recycle your older vehicle and you could qualify for an additional $3500 or $4500 cash back

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we're back with jonathan martin, dug less brinkley for more of "the politics fix." let me ask you, doug, because you're a historian. what is it that's in the water in washington now that's discouraging people from staying here? i mean, k. billy hutchens is heading back to texas to run for governor. martinez announced he's quitting. 19 reserve senators quit in the last several cycles. just leave. why are people giving up on public office especially in washington and why are so few

heavyweights running for office? i mean, substantial people in their own right running for office. they're just not coming to politics. >> well, i think, you know -- once barack obama and the democrats won, a lot of republicans see it, it's a time to leave washington, maybe go back and make money in your own state or doing consulting. find a different career the way sarah palin may be going into book writing and media. the way mel martinez has said he wants to go into being with his family and making some money. that happens sometimes. i think what has to concern republicans is that the conservative movement seems to be controlling the republican party, and there doesn't seem to be enough diversity. they've tried to put chairman steele and bobby jen call out front. losing mel martinez here seems to me to be a blow to the republican party. there is no formula that the republicans can reclaim the white house as i see it without florida. and martinez was a vig voice with the cuban community in florida and with hispanics in general. i don't know who or how they're going to replace him down there.

>> i bet a lot of politicians are looking at joe scarborough, our colleague, and saying he's having a lot more fun, having a lot more impact, doing what he's doing in the mornings than i'm doing here sitting up in an office on capitol hill waiting for the roll call so i can get this that little subway and go vote in a tunnel somewhere. >> if you're a republican you're doing so in the minority. you know from being up there, life's no fun. especially on the house side when you're in the minority. you can't get much done. i think these are fairly discrete cases. trent lott, he had a lobbying gig lined up, it was obviously for the money in that case. i think martinez, from what i hear, he's sick of being in d.c., sick of being in the senate. his alma mater, florida state, the presidency has opened down there, keep that in mind. he quit the rnc early. now he's quitting the senate. i think he wants to get out of dodge. there's a cuban-american writing for that, marco rubio. problem is heeg running into the governor of florida, charlie crist, in a primary. the cuban-american leaving the

senate is probably not going to be replaced by one. >> let me ask you the question of the republican party. doug, do you think it's become too much the right wing right party? >> remember when ronald reagan, chris, gone the governorship in 1966. that was the goldwater conservatives taking over. but you still had eisenhower republicans. that very year, people like charles percy or brooke up in massachusetts, howard baker in tennessee, they won senate seats. and you're starting to not see where that opening is. you have two republican senators from maine. that's about it. i'm wondering where the sen terrorist republican party is. schwarzenegger is having trouble in california. i don't see where the eisenhower republicans go, except to the democratic party. >> only one i can see is day billy hutchen son, knocking off the current governor of texas. jonathan, great friday. interesting week for mesh politics. douglas brinkley, good luck with the book. how can you not put this on your shelf?

you've got to put this up there. teddy roosevelt, what a great president, "wilderness warrior." join us again monday for more "hardball." right now it's time for "the ed show" with ed schultz. i'm ed schultz. this is "the ed show." good evening. live from 30 rock in new york, it's "the ed show" on msnbc. i'm lawrence o'donnell in for ed schultz who's gone fishing this week. he'll be back next week. more town hall and one new york congressman may have found the way to beat the mobs. congressman anthony winger joins me in just a minute. will the anti-reform campaign unite the democrats? rahm emanuel wants liberal groups to lay off the blue dogs. will they follow the white house marching orders? and 44 years ago, lyndon johnson got government-run, single-payer health carapaced by

a wide margin. what can president obama learn from lbj? i'll ask joseph califano, a top aide to president johnson, in "the playbook." plus "ed-lines." the latest twist in the florida senate race. first, tonight's "op ed." the angry mobs at health care town halls are getting angrier. fists are flying. in tampa, a town hall organized by the state democratic party was shut down when a crowd of several hundred protesters tried to force its way into the meeting room. congresswoman kathy caster gave up trying to speak after 15 minutes of being shouted down. at least one punch was thrown. in st. louis, health care reform supporters started shouting at health care reform opponents. there was pushing, there was shoving, and six people were arrested. what's driving these protests? we got a glimpse in pueblo, colorado, where the conservative interest group patients first made a stop on its c