was it because he's had it with his fellow conservative republicans? that's in "the politics fix" tonight. what is it about former u.n. ambassador john bodilten laughi at him on television? that's in the "sideshow." i'm laughing with her. we begin with what happened today, today's better than expected unemployment jobs figures, what does it mean for president obama. in a moment nbc's chief white house correspondent chuck todd will join us. but right up front, susan page, washington bureau chief for "usa today." you write the big stories for the people. thank you for joining us on television. you should be on television. the "usa today" is right there on every hotel doorstep. >> you can buy it at newsstands. >> i know, too. you always sell here. let me ask you what do you make of the president's optimistic tone? let's watch the president today around 1:00 in the afternoon east coast time talking up the economy for the first time in a while. >> we're pointed in the right direction. we're losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when i took office.

we've pulled the financial system back from the brink and a rising market is restoring value to those 401(k)s that are the foundation of a secure retirement. >> susan, i guess he's getting to the heart of what people are worried about. somebody once said to me a while ago what his opposition will be offering in the next election next year is we'll give it to you back. whatever you lost in the stock market the last couple years, whatever you lost in your 401(k), we're going to give it back to you, and he can't do it. now he's saying i'm giving it back to you. >> and now he can say my program is working, and, you know, the timing could not be sweeter for barack obama. this is -- the next couple weeks, a lot of engagement on health care. health care will either begin to get sold or fail in the next couple weeks. he goes into this period being able to say unemployment has actually dropped. i have some credibility to say that the administration is competent. you know, it's sort of like the way katrina undermined george bush on any number of fronts because it made his administration look incompetent. this makes the administration get talking points that the economic program is working,

trust us also to tackle health care. >> what did you make of the "new york times" lead story that said there is the stimulus that was passed earlier this year in early spring is working. >> well, it said it has had some effect, a lot of debate about that. it may not be -- it's not the only factor that goes into these -- the slightly better economic news, but you've got to think if you pump $787 billion, begin to pump that into the economy, it's going to have an effect. >> you know, let me bring in chuck, chuck todd. i studied economics. i was in grad school in economics. one thing you learned from keynesian economics if you stimulate the economy through a big fiscal deficit, it's going to be almost $2 trillion, it has got to jack up the economy and put juice into it. we're now seeing that beginning to turn. in other words, we're reaching perhaps the end of the actual recession. in other words, the part of restricted growth, lower growth, negative growth, earlier than we thought because of all this spending and all this deficit. >> well, that's right, and they also feel, you know, it was funny, i want to pick up on

something susan said, there's a feeling of i told you so in the tone of the president last night at the fund-raiser in virginia and a little more tempered but saying, hey, see, look, we told you this is how the stimulus was going to work. we had to do all these things. we had to bail out the banks. we had to do that. then we had to bail out the auto industry. just give us some time on that. now, they've got this downtick and it's a very small downtick on unemployment, but, chris, i think what helps them a little more is throwing the cash for clunkers. here was a program that isn't technically a part of the original stimulus program, but it was a simple, easy to grasp like, oh, here's a program of stimulus where you get money for something that seems to increase the amount of economic activity in a specific sector so it was an easy to grasp thing. pile it all together and i think it's why you saw the president today feeling a little more upbeat about things and it's going to put a little steel in

the spine of democrats on capitol hill when it comes to health care. >> you buy that, susan? that the simple aspect of the break you get on buying a car, it's about a 25% cut in the cost of a car basically, it's a hell of a discount, and you just go out and do it. it ain't complicated. you bring in your car that's getting 20 miles to the gallon or less and you buy a car that's getting you 30 miles to a gallon. that would be an ideal situation. and they pour some of this engine killer into the car in front of you like dr. kevorkian, and you come home with a brand new car. >> and how often did people say -- have you heard people say insurance companies got a bailout, the banks got a bailout, where is my bailout? this was a little bit of a sense that anybody in america could walk in with an old car and get a little bit of a bailout themselves. i think it did have an effect. you see it in barack obama's approval rating. gallup shows him up to 58% approval rating. he was down as low as 52%. >> aren't we fickle?

>> we are so fickle. >> very. >> you know, chuck, you and i are friends. we know -- and so is susan, but we know i'm a churchill buff. one of the tricks of churchill in winning the war against the nazis, finally to make a real useful mention of nazis this week for once in this crazy world. that he understood that you never expect -- you never give too much good expectation ahead of time. he used to say as the war went on he used to say it's not the beginning of the end but maybe it's the end of the beginning. anything to reduce expectations so that people would keep their hopes up. i noticed robert gibbs, who seems like a pro at the white house. the president's spokesman said we still expect 10% unemployment. explain. >> well, here is why. one of the reasons unemployment went down, the labor force in general contracted, and so they still don't see how they're going to be creating -- how new jobs are going to get created over the next three, four, five months, and so that's why they fear that, you know, when you watch this thing and while the overall trend of job losses seems to be going down, they

still don't see where jobs are going to get added yet in the next few months. that's why they think 10% is still sitting out there, and they know that becomes a psychological marker, but i want to go back to -- something else you brought up, churchill -- >> let me do this right now then you can get back. you follow up. here is the president right now saying what you said to get that on the record. >> as far as i'm concerned, we will not have a true recovery as long as we're losing jobs, and we won't rest until every american that is looking for work can find a job. >> chuck? >> right, and that's what, you know, you talk to some around here, by the way, and they say, see, this is how they can envision running their own morning in america ad. you know, where all of a sudden it's just like 1983, 1984, well 2011, 2012 will be the same way where they will have months of every month we will add jobs to the monthly payroll number rather than taking away jobs. that's how they're looking at this and saying one step at a time.

first we have to stop the job losses. >> susan, will we get down to 7% unemployment by 2012? >> 1983 and 1984 were preceded by 1982 where unemployment hit -- >> that's right. >> and the white house lost 26 seats -- >> i was part of that. i was part of that effort. >> and, you know, this time it's been good, but if 10% unemployment comes up next year and people are making their minds up for the midterms, that will be not very good news. >> so you think it -- you're saying ironically it might be better off for them to have their 10% now and get it over -- >> no, i think they're trying to have the good news now to get the health care through. the window for health care is not open that long -- >> tactically, they're better off now to have a breathing spell? >> yes. >> do you agree, chuck? going into september, october? >> absolutely. what it does here is it allows them to go back to these democrats in the senate and the house and say, hey, guys, see, you walked the plank with us on the stimulus, and it was just

us, and we were -- we went ahead with the republicans and you stuck with us. we're starting to see signs that are working. you know what, let's do this on a party line vote. let's just do it without the republicans. let's get health care done the same way. trust us, let's walk the plank together again, and these numbers this week i think at least helps them, i think, get senate democrats -- i can tell you this from talking to some of them, they feel a little encouraged. they feel like, okay, maybe this recovery act is working. maybe we have some evidence and maybe we should just go ahead and get health care done if we have to do it on our own with 50 votes. forget the 60. forget the bipartisan deals. so be it. >> i want to advertise later in the show we're going to show senator clinton, former senator clinton, now secretary of state clinton, laughing her butt off, to use an old expression, at something the former bush guy, this former u.s. ambassador to the u.n. said. laughing because somebody had made fun of her husband's success at bringing back those

two wonderful reporters, american reporters from north korea. what did you make of that? chuck first and then susan. i think it's so great to see unity among bill and hillary and the president heartily laughing without any cue or pr involved, laughing at the absurdity of anybody saying that wasn't a good news piece for america. >> it is and can i tell you -- well, i was talking to one white house official who says, hey, take a look at this week as a whole. we've rescued two americans from north korea. we were able to get -- break an ethnic barrier in the supreme court and they got sonia sotomayor -- >> nine republican votes. >> nine republican votes. it was a bigger vote than alito got. oh, by the way, we may have killed the single most threatening terrorist short of osama bin laden with that guy from the taliban that it looks like that they got and is dead, and they say, you know, intelligence will show that this guy maybe was more menacing and more of a problem than osama bin laden. and, oh, by the way, look at the jobs numbers. they sit there and say to themselves, this wasn't a bad week. we did pretty well.

>> yeah. >> good time to go on vacation maybe. >> that's right. walk out of here on a high. >> "usa today" you can get it anywhere you go on vacation. thank you, chuck and susan. have a nice weekend. it's a beautiful weekend so far. coming up, how much of the anti-obama anger we see out there at these congressional town halls are really rooted in the fact he's an african-american, they just don't like it. let's try to figure that out. i'm not sure what percentage of this is, but some of it is existential. they don't think this guy should be our president. at your chevy dealer, but funds are going fast. so hurry. let us recycle your older vehicle and you could qualify for an additional $3500 or $4500 cash back on a new, fuel-efficient chevy. your chevy dealer has more eligible models to choose from. more than ford, toyota or honda. now get an '09 cobalt for under fifteen-four after all offers. and get it for even less if you qualify for the cash for clunkers program. go to chevy.com for details.

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new charmin ultra soft. americall or click today. welcome back to "hardball." are the mobs at those town hall

meetings really upset about health care reform or is this anger deeper? is it based in ethnicity, race if you will? paul krugman wrote in today's "new york times" that the town hall protesters were, quote, probably reacting less to what mr. obama is doing or even about what they've heard about what he's doing than to who he is. that is the driving force behind the town hall mobs is probably the same cultural and racial anxiety that's behind the birther movement. cynthia tucker, political columnist for "the atlanta constitution." and ron brownstein is the political director for "atlantic med media." you're both heavyweights as journalists. i respect your opinions. when i look at those crowds and when i look at the people i imagine involved in the birther movement, i see a dichotomy in terms of class. i think some people in the birther movement are less educated, more rural, more rustic, a little less informed about everything. and a little more scared. whereas i see these mobs at these meetings, i see pinks and limes, i see middle class people

who went to college, i see people who do read the paper, who just don't like health care reform. what do you see, cynthia? do you see the same crowd in both? the birthers, the race people, the people against health care particularly? >> well, let me start out by saying, chris, there is absolutely no way to prove that people have racist motives. there's no way to know what's in people's hearts and minds. >> yeah, when they say the guy is from mombassa, okay, that's how you can tell. with no evidence whatever. when you say he's from some other country, he's from a muslim country, make him as foreign as possible, that suggests motive to me. >> or when you hear people at these tea party protesters say this is america, this is no longer the country that i grew up in, this country is changing. well, that -- >> well, it is. >> that suggests -- >> they don't like the change. >> exactly. that suggests to me that race is part of this. can i prove it? absolutely not. do i believe it is? absolutely. do i think that's all it is? no, i want to be careful about that.

i want to be precise in my language. some people are just upset about health care reform. they're well-informed about it, they don't like it -- >> so you accept the fact that there's a mix of motives? >> absolutely. >> that some people just don't like what they're hearing about this plan, but some don't like the labs of barack obama. >> some don't like the looks of barack obama. >> would you agree with that basic notion. there's a crowd out there that's ethnic, earthy, people who say things like -- my old buddy zell miller, being sarcastic, that this guy needs gorilla glue to stay in his chair. give me a break. there's a lot of other glues. >> there's always that element and -- but it is not a decisive element. i think democrats would be making a very dangerous mistake if they simply reduce what's happening to a kind of fundamental racial resistance against obama. one of the things -- there's no question what's going on, it's largely being organized by conservative groups. but it is also revealing that

conservative groups are able to organize this level of activity. i mean, you know, a noted political analyst said last week where are the crowds marching for health care reform? that was you. the npr poll last week of those 25% of the public strongly supported what obama is trying to do on health care. 39% strongly opposed. right now there does seem to be more energy in the opponents than the supporters although the opponents are trying to gear up. and i think it would be a mistake to simply read what's happening as a racial reaction there. is an indication there of the problem the democrats face. >> any one of these rallies, people who filled it, it was like a.c.o.r.n. on the right. put all these 100 people in the room, strap them to gurneys, inject them with sodium pentothal. how many would say, i don't like the idea of having a black president? a percentage. >> i'm just guessing. i think 45% to 65% of the people who appear at these groups are people who will never be comfortable with the idea of a black president. >> can you venture a guess? >> i would not go that far. >> let me ask you another question. >> i would not go that far.

>> how many of them would say i would really like the idea of sarah palin being president of the united states? what percentage? >> about the same. about the same. >> let me go to a softer overlap. how much of the overlap is between people who don't like the particular reform aspects of this, worried about rationing, costs that are reasonable to worry about, costs or taxes. and how many of the people are just cultural in love with the idea of the far right anti-big city, anti-hollywood, anti-new york, anti-washington person that -- >> i think health care is largely a function of that larger world view, but -- >> sarah palin? >> but the cultural conservatism but also a skepticism about government. white voters over the last generation with one exception of college educated white women have been very skeptical of government. a poll we did in the national journal allstate poll, does government create more opportunity or obstacle to your personal advancement? among noncollege white men, the blue collar white men, 2-1, creates more obstacles than opportunity. the health care argument is

fitting into a broader construct which obama faces. and that is, the shifts in attitudes toward public government is not as much as they were hoping. there's still a lot of skepticism about government through the stimulus, through cap and trade, reaching too far in the economy. that is the core republicans are successfully tapping into. obama can win some of these arguments. there's no question there's a larger -- there is a small government constituency. anti-government constituency. you're seeing it being mobilized. the challenge i think for the proponents is to find energy that's comparable to that on the other side. >> a lot of the energy -- some of the reason -- ron pointed out the large crowds conservatives are able to mobilize against health care. they do that through misinformation. a lot -- absolutely. >> what misinformation? >> that president obama and the democrats' plans for health care reform will result in euthanasia for the elderly. there is a proposal that health care reform pay for counseling

if you want it, if voluntarily you decide that you want to talk about a living will or talk to your doctor about hospice care, end of life care, that will be paid for. well, conservatives have taken that and just lied about it outright and say basically they're going to lead the elderly out on ice floes to die. >> what about the question i raised? you just reminded me of. what aren't there people who are spontaneously doing what michael moore did in his movie a year ago, "sicko." people saying -- it used to be, by the way, democrats liked the activity. they like people coming to rallies. democrats used to like rallies where people would come up and say i'm worried about my husband losing his job. because that means we lose our health care plan. we want portability. i'm worried about our health care plan because i did have a problem with cancer and i'm worried i'll never be insured again. so there's thing taz -- i'm worried about all kinds of things. why don't democrats seize the initiative and say there's basic things we can do as a government and a people we ought to do with this president. >> there's a principal reason is

there's a tension or even a contradiction between president obama's inside strategy and his outside strategy. looking to learn from clinton, the inside strategy has been to give the legislators in the house and senate the maximum flexibility to put whatever they need in each bill to get it out of each chamber and into conference where they can try to forge it into a consensus product. the cost of that, of not really ruling things in or out, is that there's no specific bill he can take to the country and say if you support health care reform, you are going to get "x," "y," and "z." even yesterday meeting with those six bipartisan negotiators in a process that seems to be increasingly on a bridge to nowhere, obama would not say explicitly whether he supported a co-op as an alternative to a public plan for example. he wants to let the senate and house do what they have to to get to a conference. but the cost of that is there's not a single clarion call where he can go to the country and say, yes, rally for this. he's not there yet. >> he's a cheer leader. we need a quarterback. >> absolutely. >> he's a cheerleader, we need a quarterback.

that's the problem. >> and there are some general principles that he absolutely can go out and talk to -- >> that every adult has to be insured. in health care. >> absolutely. >> why doesn't he say that now. >> you can't deny coverage to people based on a prior medical condition. and i think while the president -- the president knows he's lost control -- >> why doesn't he say those principles and dictate them over and over. >> did he in the north carolina speech. >> i think they're beginning to do that. they're about to get their act together. >> i don't like universal theories but here's one. because he didn't have anything to sell at that news conference, because he didn't have anything to say for an hour, he was so frustrated and so tired he went after those cops. that's what i think. he got tired and angry as they say. irritated. >> very rare for him -- to have that kind of -- >> absolutely. he lost his discipline. >> and he acted like a partisan in the ethnic wars in this country, and when you're black you lose the partisan wars. this is america. >> they will have another chance in september to reset this. it's possible that the

bipartisan negotiations which is slowing it down will have evaporated by then and they can move -- >> i think he needs a break and we need a break from him. don't you think he's been on the air too much? >> who else can speak as forcefully as he can? who else can do it as well as he can? >> we'll be right back. cynthia, you're great. it's great to have you sitting right here. i am so lucky this week. i had dan balz and haines johnson, now you two guys. hillary clinton can't stop laughing. when somebody said john bolton did like her husband. i'm so with hillary on this. the fact that the right doesn't like us bringing our people home. isn't that our job to bring americans home to america? that's what it's called, it's called defense. (male announcer) if you've had a heart attack

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back to "hardball." time for the "sideshow."

first up, want to see hillary clinton laugh? mention john boulton, bush's hawkish u.n. ambassador who you remember needed a recess appointment to get the job back in 2005. here she is on cnn yesterday defending bill's rescue mission in north korea. >> it was not in any way an official government mission. >> but john boulton, the former u.n. ambassador -- should i even go on? >> i'm sorry. no, you really shouldn't. >> he said this is rewarding hostage taking. why is he wrong? because you -- they effectively took hostages -- >> we've done this so many times before. it had nothing to do with our policy. and of course, you know, you mention somebody who, heavens, if president obama walked on water, he'd say he couldn't swim. >> wow, good line, good defense, good offense. john boulton, by the way, was one of the people who took us into war and would love to do it again. next, a shake-up in the governor's mansion down in south carolina. the first lady of south carolina put out a statement, a public statement today, that she was moving out of the governor's

mansion leaving mark sanford, the governor, behind. she and her four sons are moving back to her home in charleston. look, it's kind of an official thing here, an official move, issues an official statement like that one, moving out of the official residence like that one. i guess we're supposed to notice all this official business. i guess the governor is supposed to notice. who knows? lots of drama following that flight by him down to argentina. obviously, we're here at "hardball" rooting for him to get his life back together. time now for tonight's big number, whether or not you think the government's bank bailout and economic recovery package were necessary to stabilize the economy or whether you happen to think we just should let recessions come and go as they will, there's no denying they come at a cost to the government, a big one. the economy produces less in revenues, unemployment insurance and other programs run up more costs to the government. in just the first ten months of this budget year which started october 1st, 2008, what happened to the federal deficit? where does it stand? at a record $1.3 trillion right now. that's the federal deficit. it's heading towards $2 trillion

for the year, and that may complicate the president's push for health care reform. the deficit for the year is already $1.3 trillion, tonight's "big number." keeps growing. coming up, the white house is getting tough with left wing groups who are targeting fellow democrats in the health care debate. should democrats be fighting with democrats? rahm emanuel doesn't think so. that's next. ever worn your clothes in the shower? if you're using other moisturizing body washes, you might as well be. you see, their moisturizer sits on top of skin, almost as if you're wearing it. only new dove deep moisture has nutriummoisture, a breakthrough formula with natural moisturizers... that can nourish deep down. it's the most effective natural nourishment ever. new dove deep moisture with nutriummoisture. superior natural nourishment for your skin. has the fastest serve in the history of professional tennis. so i've come to this court to challenge his speed.

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u.s. officials say they are increasingly convinced that a missile strike did kill the top taliban commander operating in pakistan. but intelligence officials say baitulla commanded thousands of militants and meetings are already being held to choose his replacement. 88-year-old eunice kennedy

shriver is in stable but critical condition tonight. she's the sister of ted kennedy and the founder of the spec olympics. >> an autopsy report shows cocaine use contributed to the use of tv pitchman billy mays. he was only 50 years old when he died of a heart attack in june. the fed says consumers paid down their credit cards again in july, reducing consumer debt for the fifth straight month. on wall street, the better than expected jobs report helped extend a winning street in four straight weeks. back to "hardball." welcome back to congress. welcome back to "hardball." congress is closed for business for the rest of august while anti-health care protesters show up at town hall meetings across the country. some democratic members are also

feeling the heat from liberal activists. check out this ad that's running in nebraska. >> now i hear that ben nelson, the senator that i voted for, is leading the charge to delay health reform this summer. that's exactly what they want. the health and insurance companies that have given senator nelson over $2 million know that if they can stall reform, they can kill it. i have to ask, senator, whose side are you on? if you're on my side, stay at work. my family can't wait for reform. >> the white house doesn't like that stuff at all. politico's jonathan martin reports that rahm emanuel, the top kick at the white house, quote, warned liberal groups this week to stop running ads like that against democratic members of congress. with us now jim dean, the brother of former dnc chairman howard dean, and the chairman of democracy for america which is sponsoring that ad you just saw. are you saying that ben nelson is in bed with the mutual of omaha and the other insurance companies out there in nebraska? are you saying he's in bed with

them? you say he's taking their money. is he in bed with them? is he tanked? >> here's what's going on, chris -- >> you're saying that in the ad. so just say it now, jim. what's the difference between saying it in the ad and saying it now? >> chris, this is part of a much larger campaign that we've been involved in, that our million members of our community have been involved with. for over six months. it's a campaign of letters to the editor, petitions, 150 to 200 meetings with congressional staffers. all aimed at getting citizens to take responsibility over this debate and take responsibility over this process. the democratic party is a big tent. it's a coalition party. we know there's some candidates -- excuse me, senators that are going to disagree with the president's plan. we support the president's plan, and we're going to challenge those senators or other elected officials that disagree with that, but it's part of a civic debate that's going on which we think is very, very healthy and very, very important. we're not interested in intimidating people at town hall meetings. we're not going and disrupting things.

what we're doing is challenging senators to engage with the voters and move this debate forward and move this bill forward so we can have a strong public option, something that's really been part of the democratic party platform since about 1948. >> jim, that took a minute and a half. my question wasn't answered. my question was are you saying that ben nelson is in bed with the insurance industries that have given him $2 million in your ad? are you saying he's in bed with them? in other words, he's not representing people, he's representing the insurance industry? >> no. >> do you want me to show the ad again that you paid for? >> i understand -- >> you run the ad but you won't back it up. >> chris, we are challenging senator nelson -- >> you're not challenging. you condemned the guy and said he's in the tank. >> no, we pointed out it's a material fact in the debate he's accepted a large amount of money in campaign contributions from the health insurance industry and the ad really asks him to make that choice between representing -- >> no, you're saying he's leading the charge -- you said in the ad he's leading the charge in slowing down or killing this health care bill. he's leading the charge. that's what you're saying in the

ad. do you want me to play it again? no, you don't. >> don't play it again. >> that's what you're saying. >> i get what you're saying. i understand that. we're challenging him -- >> you're not hearing what i'm saying. you're trying to kill this guy so he'll turn around, squirm in bed for a while, and do what you want to do. >> we're not trying to kill this guy. we're trying to challenge him to get involved and engage the voters in this debate. we're pointing out as a material fact that he's taken a lot of money -- >> i'm smirking because you're obviously writing the copy and writing the copy and then coming on the show and giving us the foreplay and the soft sell. let me ask you about rahm emanuel. have you gotten threatened personally by him? >> no. >> there's no degree of bad blood between him and your brother. >> no, no, no. >> is it extending to you? well, there is. everybody knows rahm emanuel doesn't like john dean -- i mean howard dean. >> well, first of all, i don't think that -- >> everybody knows that. everybody knows that. you know it. if i put you under sodium pentothal right now, you'd say yes, you're right. on television you're saying it isn't true, but it is true. rahm emanuel, did he go after you personally? >> first of all, we have not been called by the white house or anybody else about this.

and frankly the white house is not reacting to the substance of what we're doing. they're reacting to the media narrative on it which is about this kind of conflict which doesn't exist. this is not about left versus right or democrats versus democrats. this is about choosing between the voters and constituents or choosing the health insurance plans. >> okay, let me ask you about a value judgment. are we better off in this country if christmas comes and the holidays come at the end of the year and we have passed a health care bill which establishes the government's commitment, the american people's commitment to health care for everybody, everybody from a certain age, say 21, has to become enrolled in the national health care plan of some kind. everyone has to be covered. there is no more pre-existing condition stuff. there's no more -- you get portability. you can move from job -- all kinds of good things are done but not everything. we don't have a single payer option. we don't have some things that people on the left would like to have, and i think they're good options but we don't get it all but we move really there, we've never gotten there. by the way, i have watched health care die every time the democrats get in power.

it died with kennedy, wouldn't help nixon. kennedy wouldn't help carter. the clintons tried to get it all. it always fails because people want to be superstars and get it all their way. are you like that? are you like that? >> no, no, no, no, no. we believe that -- >> you say you're not like that. why are you trying to destroy people that don't agree with you then within the democratic family? >> chris, we're a coalition party. it's okay to have this debate among democrats. we're grown up enough to do this. we're not intimidating, not showing up at meetings and shouting people down. we're having a debate and challenging senators who do not agree with the president's plan to get involved and again to come over and change -- >> what do you think senator nelson of omaha thinks of your ad. as he watches himself described as the enemy of health care reform, in bed with the mutual of omaha. and the rest of those insurance companies out there in omaha. how -- what do you think he thinks you're doing to him. >> i think senator nelson should think -- >> should. we're into the subjunctive now. i asked you what do you think he thinks of your ad?

he gets on -- kids watch, his grandkids i assume watch, everybody is checking in on your ads and you're blasting away at this guy. >> right. >> daddy, grandpa, aren't you a liberal democrat? aren't you a democrat? why are they attacking you? >> we're attacking him because he's come out -- he does not support the president's plan and -- we want him to support the president's plan -- >> this took four minutes. you're attacking him. thank you. it took him a while. first of all, there's foreplay and this history of the world part three here from you, and you finally get around to saying what you're doing. you're attacking democrats. will you be bothered that rahm emanuel, the president's ramrod, doesn't want you doing it? does that bother you personally? >> again, chris -- >> does it bother you that rahm emanuel doesn't like what you're doing? >> no, it doesn't because -- >> okay. thank you. you're great. you know, you really do make your point. go ahead. make your point. >> i'm just saying, look, this is about ultimately about civic engagement. and this is part of a much larger campaign where we are engaging with elected officials and challenging them on this, and i don't apologize for that. we're a coalition party.

just as senator nelson is free to disagree with barack obama, we're free to disagree with senator nelson on that. i don't think that's such a bad thing. >> jim dean, you're great. i'm a big fan of howard dean usually. >> thanks for having me on. up next -- it takes a while to get to the truth. up next, will today's better than expected number, 9.4 instead of 10, is that going to help the president slide in public approval? will it give him a couple months to get health care through? a little window of opportunity with the good economic news that may be saying the stimulus is working.

coming up, another public official quits before their term ends. republican senator mel martinez follows sarah palin, quits right in the middle of his term. has he had it with the conservatives in his party? we'll try to figure out why these guys are quitting jobs they're elected to. hi. number two, please.

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we're back. time for "the politics fix" with the politico's johnathan martin and the great historian, douglas brinkley. he's got an amazing new book out, "the wilderness warrior," about one of the greatest presidents of all times, teddy roosevelt. it's called "the wilderness warrior." he built things and saved them like the grand canyon. president obama sounded an optimistic tone today. let's hear him. here's the president. >> we're pointed in the right direction. we're losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when i took office.

we've pulled the financial system back from the brink and a rising market is restoring value to those 401(k)s that are the foundation of a secure retirement. >> douglas, we're watching a president who is going through a situation with the honeymoon over. he's now got to fight for his biggest goal of his first term. if he doesn't get it, he's a loser. heavy stakes. >> there are heavy stakes. ronald reagan used to always say keep your poll numbers up above 50%. barack obama has achieved that, but there has to be some worry of the slippage in poll ratings. the problem is barack obama's stimulus package, chris, it's going to take a while to know the results of that or the bailout of general motors, some of the controversial issues. so he has to hope that this recession gets better. it seems to be, and if by late fall or early next winter the economy has done somewhat of a rebound, he'll be able to claim it was his economic policies that did it. >> jonathan martin, it's hard to believe they won't be responsible. you're running a $2 trillion deficit.

anybody who studies economics knows that puts so much stimulus in the economy. it's not just the stimulus bill. it's the whole fiscal direction of the country now. it's toward growth. toward action. >> right, and the hope of the obama white house is that the sort of perception of progress being made on the economy ultimately trumps the concerns about spending. if you look at the poll numbers, one of the chief concerns among americans, even some folks who are supportive of president obama, was the spending. but if they can make the case, which is why they're seeding on these numbers today. that the economy is coming back. that there's light at the end of the tunnel. then that may give americans some encouragement. also, chris, health care comes into this. health care is an easier sell if the american people are feeling better about the economy in general and the direction of the country in general. they're more likely to give their trust to this president i think. >> let me ask you about the dividing line between being just another president and being a transformative president, somebody who has a shot at, well, at least not getting on mt. rushmore, but at least being considered among the major presidents. isn't it about obama's ability

to do something transformative to do something transformative on health that's going to decide that? >> well, they put an awful lot of their energy. these first, you know, 200 days into health care. you've got to get a result. there has to be major health care reform. i think this august is a tricky one for the obama administration. these town hall meetings are growing. i think that he has to get out there and sell health care. and also he's going to yellowstone and the grand canyon, talk about climate, talk about the environment. you know, august is no longer a time just to sit back in crawford or martha's vineyard i think you do have to get out there and fight in august. every year politicians sometimes think august is r and r time, and it's really a time to push your agenda forward. >> this is a hobby horse, this notion that's often promulgated in washington, nothing ever happens in august. it's emphatically untrue. the examples are many over the years. this august i think is going to be no different. this is going to be the make or break on health care.

>> why doesn't he send his family somewhere and stay working? >> the argument is he wants a break too, he needs to recharge his batteries. i think you're seeing him go to yellowstone, do that tour of the west. they think in some ways that helps him inoculate a little bit when he does ultimately go to martha's vineyard. seeing him roughing it a little bit, going to the eastern seaboard will be easier. >> along the lines of your book, teddy roosevelt, "the wilderness warrior," here's the question. does barack obama need to do a two punch here, not just health but get back to cap and trade, get back to energy, get back to doing something on climate change in order to establish his role in history? does he have to win both? >> absolutely, chris. and i think yellowstone, where theodore roosevelt went in 1903, he's doing the two stops t.r. did in 1903. yellowstone, the grand canyon. talk about climate conservation. talk about wildlife protection. talk about the eventual solar panels the federal government is going to do, wind farms,

alternative energy. i think you want to mix the conversation up in august. half of it health care, also push forward your energy and environmental policies. ken burns has this documentary coming out on the national parks in september. it's going to get a lot of attention. i think it's fortuitous timing to see the west and take his case to the people of the west. >> the members of congress, it's a big enough pill for them to swallow on health care, it's going to be tough on those guys. >> the house has already passed it. they might as well get some credit for it. >> it's better to go uphill than downhill. we'll be right back. why are so many politicians quitting? they've killed themselves. they've set their heart on office and then they walkway from it. sarah palin, now mel martinez. 19 republicans have quit in the last three cycles. that's half the republican members of the senate have walked away from their careers. what's going on? you're watching "hardball" on msnbc. will never be the same.

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we're back with jonathan martin, douglas brinkley for more of "the politics fix." the great book, "the wilderness lawyer" goi warrior." let me ask you, doug, because you're a historian. what is it that's in the water in washington now that's discouraging people from staying here? i mean kay bailey hutchens is heading back to texas to run for

governor. martinez announced he's quitting. 19 reserve senators quit in the last several cycles. just leave. why are people giving up on public office especially in washington and why are so few heavyweights running for office? i mean, substantial people in their own right running for office. they're just not coming to politics. >> well, i think, you know -- once barack obama and the democrats won, a lot of republicans see it, it's a time to leave washington, maybe go back and make money in your own state or doing consulting. find a different career the way sarah palin may be going into book writing and media. the way mel martinez has said he wants to go into being with his family and making some money. that happens sometimes. i think what has to concern republicans is that the conservative movement seems to be controlling the republican party, and there doesn't seem to be enough diversity. they've tried to put chairman steele and bobby jindal out front. losing mel martinez here seems to me to be a blow to the republican party. there is no formula that the republicans can reclaim the white house as i see it without florida.

and martinez was a big voice with the cuban community in florida and with hispanics in general. i don't know who or how they're going to replace him down there. >> i bet a lot of politicians are looking at joe scarborough, our colleague, and saying he's having a lot more fun, having a lot more impact, doing what he's doing in the mornings than i'm doing here sitting up in an office on capitol hill waiting for the roll call so i can get in that little subway and go vote in a tunnel somewhere. >> if you're a republican you're doing so in the minority. you know from being up there, life's no fun. especially on the house side when you're in the minority. you can't get much done. i think these are fairly discrete cases. trent lott, he had a lobbying gig lined up, it was obviously for the money in that case. i think martinez, from what i hear, he's sick of being in d.c., sick of being in the senate. his alma mater, florida state, the presidency has opened down there, keep that in mind. he quit the rnc early. now he's quitting the senate. i think he wants to get out of dodge. there's a cuban-american writing for that, marco rubio. problem is he's running into the governor of florida, charlie crist, in a primary.

the cuban-american leaving the senate is probably not going to be replaced by one. >> let me ask you the question of the republican party. doug, do you think it's become too much the right wing right white party? >> remember when ronald reagan, chris, gone the governorship in 1966. that was the goldwater conservatives taking over. but you still had eisenhower republicans. that very year, people like charles percy or brooke up in massachusetts, howard baker in tennessee, they won senate seats. and you're starting to not see where that opening is. you have two republican senators from maine. that's about it. i'm wondering where the centrist republican party is. schwarzenegger is having trouble in california. i don't see where the eisenhower republicans go, except to the democratic party. >> only one i can see is kay bailey hutchinson knocking off the current governor of texas. jonathan, great friday. interesting week for mesh

politics. douglas brinkley, good luck with the book. "countdown" with keith olbermann starts right now. which of these stories will you be talking about tomorrow? the truth is out about the societal sabotage dressed up as phony protests against health care reform. poisoning the political well. give it up. any presence of being the loyal opposition. they've become political terrorists. the searing op-ed in "the washington post". constant references to, images of hitler, nazis, the ss or from the organizer whipping up a crowd of the americans for prosperity funded by big tobacco and big oil, all of the above, and euthanasia, too. >> adolph hitler, he called his program the final solution. i kind of wonder what we're

going to call ours. >> the one saving grace? they are not that smart. just an ordinary american and a connecticut town hall still wearing his blue cross blue shield shirt. just an ordinary american in a wisconsin town hall saying she is not affiliated with any party who was vice chairman of her county republican party as late ags last year and still boasts of being on the republican national committee. just ordinary americans taking credit for disrupting the tampa town hall. members of a glenn beck fan club. this as economists are startled as unemployment improves for the first time in 16 months and stocks soar to their highest since last october. >> i am convinced we can see a light at the end of the tunnel. >> not true about blackwater. deeper and deeper and worse and worse. how founder eric prince viewed his company killing spree in iraq as a modern version of the crui crusades and even used terminology from the actual crusades as ca