9.4. let's play hardball. good evening. i'm chris matthews from washington. leading off tonight, for weeks the white house has been preparing us for double digit employment. that some time soon the rate would hit 10%. the president spokesman said it again today, but people around here believe the white house was fairly happy when they got the jobless news. the monthly unemployment rate

fell. it was down from recent months. no one is suggesting the numbers are good, but, yes, they beat expectations. they could give the president's poll numbers a boost when he needs it the most. why? they say his targeted stimulus is beginning to pump juice into the economy. plus, we'll ask this question plainly. is the anger at the town hall meetings only act health care or, yes, sadly about race? there's a question that generally a lot of people oppose reform, but what has got most of the protestors upset is they can't deal with an african-american president. we'll debate that hot one. and democrat versus democrat? liberal groups are going against democrats for failing to support health reform.

also, florida senator mel martinez surprised everyone today when he announced today he's resigning before his term expires. in fact, he is quitting now. was it gauze because he's had it with his fellow republicans? . and what is it about john baldin that has hillary clinton laughing at him on television. by the way, i'm laughing with her. we begin with today. the unexpecting job employment figures. we have chuck todd joining us. right up from, susan page, washington bureau chief for usa today. you write the big storieses for people. in fact, you tell us on television what should be on television because the "usa today" is on every doorstep. >> you can buy it, too. >> you always sell here. what do you make of the president's optimistic tone? we'll watch the president here today around 1:00 in the afternoon east coast time talking about the economy for the first time in a while.

>> we are pointed in the right direction. we are losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when i took office. we pulled the financial system back from the brick and rising market is a value to the 401(k)s in retirement. >> susan, he is getting to the heart of what everyone talked about. what opposition will be offering in the next election next year is we'll give it to you back. whatever you lost in the stock market the last couple of years, whatever you lost in the 401(k), we'll give it back to you. now he is saying we'll give it back to you. >> now he can say my program is working. the timing couldn't be sweert for barack obama. the next couple of weeks, a lot of engagement on health care. health care will begin to get sold or fail in the next up couple of weeks. he goes into the period saying unemployment has dropped. i have some credibility to say the administration is competent. sort of like the way katrina

undermined george bush because it made his administration look competent. >> what did you make of the new york times lead story on the left side at the top today? it said, there was the stimulus that was passed earlier this year is working. >> it says it has had an effect, there's a lot of debate on that. it may not be the -- it is not the only factor that goes into the slightly better economic news, but you've got to think that you pump $787 billion, you begin to pump that into the economy, it will have an effect? >> let me bring in chuck. chuck todd, i studied economics in grad school. one thing you learn is if you stimulate the economy through a big fiscal deficit, it has got to jack up the economy and put juice into it. now we are beginning to see that turn. in other words, we are reaching, perhaps, the end of the actual recession. in other words, the part of

restrictive growth, negative growth earlier than we thought because of all the spending and all this deficit. >> that's right. they also feel, it is funny, i want to pick up on something susan said, there's a feeling of "i told you so" in the president of and his tone. we told you the stimulus was going to work. with e had to do all these things. bail out the banks, do that. then we had to bail out the auto industry, give it time on that. now they have this down tick and it is a small down tick on unemployment, but, chris, i think what helps him a little bit more is throwing the cash for clunkers. here was a program that was not part of the original stimulus program, but it was a simple easy to grasp like, oh, here's a program of stimulus where you get money for something that seems to increase the economic activity in a specific sector,

so it was an easy to grasp thing. pile it all together and i think that's why you saw the president feeling more upbeat about things and it is going to put a little steel in the spine of democrats on capitol hill when it comes to health care. >> you buying this, susan, that the simple aspect of the break you get on buying a car, it is about a 25% cut in the cost of a car, basically. it is a he will, of a discount. you bring in your car getting 20 miles a gallon or less. you bring in your car getting 10 miles a gallon or less. they pour some engine killer into the car like dr. we cork kevorkian and you come home with a new car. >> this was a little bit of a sense that anybody in america could come in with an old car and get a bailout themselves.

i think it did have an effect. barack obama's approval rating shows him at 58%. he was down as low as 52%. >> are we fickle? let me ask you about this, chuck, you and i are friend. you know i'm a churchhill buff. one of the words of churchhill winning the war against the nazis, he understood that you never get too much expectations ahead of time. he used to say, it is not the beginning of the end but maybe the end of the beginning. anything to reduce expectations so that people would keep their hopes up. i noticed robert gibbs, who seems like a pro at the white house, he said today we still expect 10% unemployment. explain. >> well, here's why. one of the reasons why unemployment went down the labor force in general contracted, so they still don't see how they are going to be creating -- how new jobs are going to get

created over the next three, four, five months. that's why they fear that, you know, when you watch this thing and why the overall trend of job loss seems to be going down, they still don't see where jobs are going to get added yet in the next few months. that's why they think 10% is still sitting out there and that becomes a psychological marker. i want to go back to something else, you brought up churchhill. >> you follow-up, here's the president saying what you said. let me get that on the record. >> as far as i'm concerned, we will not have a true recovery as long as we are losing jobs and we won't rest until every american that is looking for work can find a job. >> chuck? >> right. you talk to some around here, by the way, they say, this is how they can envision running their own morning in america ad where all of a sudden it is just like 1983, 1984, 2010 and 2011 and

2012, where every month they will be adding jobs to the monthly payroll numbers rather than taking away jobs. that's how they are looking at this saying, one step at a time. first we have to level off the job losses. >> 1983 and is the 1984 were proceeded by 1982 and the white house lost 26 seats in the general election. you know, this timing has been good, but it is a 10% unemployment, if it comes up next year, that will be not very good news. >> are you saying, ironically, it could be better off to have 10% now and get it over with? >> well, they want the good news now when they are trying to get health care through. the window for health care is not open that long. >> basically, they are betting off now to have a breathing spell. do you agree? >> yeah, and what it does, chris -- >> going into september?

>> what it does is allows them to go back to the democrats in the senate and the house and say, hey, guys, see in you walk the plank with us on the stimulus, it was just us. we went ahead with the republicans and you stuck with us. we are starting to see signs that are working. you know what? let's do this on a party line vote and without the republicans. we'll get health care done the same way, trust us. we'll walk the plank together again and these numbers this week, i think, at least helps them, i think, get senate democrats, i can tell you this from talking to some of them, they feel encouraged. they feel like, okay, maybe the recovery effort is working and we have evidence to get health care done. if we have to do it on our own to get the 50, forget the 60, bipartisan deal, so be it. >> thank you, chuck todd. have a nice weekend. it is a beautiful weekend so far. coming up, how much of the obama angry do we see out there at the congressional town halls? it is rooted in the fact he is

an african-american. they don't like it. we'll try to figure out what percentage it is. some of it is ethnic. you are watching "hardball" on msnbc. from nasal allergy symptoms like congestion. but nasonex relief may i say... bee-utiful! prescription nasonex is proven to help relieve indoor and outdoor nasal allergy symptoms like congestion, runny and itchy nose and sneezing. (announcer) side effects were generally mild and included headache. viral infection, sore throat, nosebleeds and coughing. ask your doctor about symptom relief with nasonex. and save up to $15 off your refills. go to nasonex.com for details, terms and conditions. home run! (announcer) he's sweet. even with one third less sugar than soda. kool-aid. delivering more smiles per gallon. even with one third less sugar than soda. well, if you'd like your own personal tour of paris,

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welcome back to "hardball." paul cruiseman wrote in today's new york times that they are probably reactingless to what mr. obama is doing or what they have heard about him doing than to who he is. that is the driving force behind the town hall mobs. it is probably the same culture and racial anxiety behind the birther movement. sin ty sin ty cindy tuck er, yo are a heavyweight as journalists.

i respect your opinions. when i look at the crowds, and when i look at the people involved with the birther movement, i see it in terms of class. i think some of the people who with the birther movement areless educated, more rural,less informed about everything and a little more scared where the mobs at the meetings, i see some pinks and limes, some middle-class people to who went to college, i see people who read the paper and don't like health care reform. what do you see, cynthia? >> the birthers, the race people, the people against health care, partly, particularly. >> there's no way to prove that people have racist motives. there's no way to know what's in people's hearts and minds. >> when they say the people from mombasa, that's when you can tell. people from some other country, he is from a muslim country. that suggests -- >> or when you hear people, these tea party protestors say

this is america. this is no longer the country that i grew up in. this country is changing. well, that suggest to me -- >> they don't like change. >> exactly. that suggests to me that race is a part of this. can i prove it? absolutely not. do i believe it is, absolutely. do i think that's all it is, no. i want to be very careful about that. i want to be presoois in my language. some people are just upset about health care reform. they are well informed about it. >> you are upset with the fact of the mixed motives? ? >> absolutely. >> some don't like the looks of barack obama. >> some don't like the looks of barack obama. >> do you agree with that? people that say things like, well, my old buddy -- i'm being sarcastic this guy needs gorilla glue to stay in his chair. give me a break. >> there's always that element and there has been throughout.

>> it is true in politics. people would be making a dangerous mistake if they reduce what's happening to the kind of fumt fundamental race issues. this is largely organized by con serbtive groups and revealing conservative groups are able to organize this level of activity. a noted political analyst said last week where the crowds are marching for health care reform, that was you. the mpr poll last week, 25% of the public strongly supported, said they strongly supported what obama is doing on health care. 39% strongly opposed. there does seem to be more energy in the opponents, but the supporters are trying to gear up. it would be a mistake to read what's happening as justified racial reaction. there is an indication of the problem -- >> any one of these rallies, it was like acorn on the right. it was like acorn taking on the office, put the people into

rooms, strap them to journeys, how many of them would say they don't like a back president? >> i think 45% to 65% of the people who appear at these groups are people who will never be comfort wbl the idea of a black president. >> would you like to venture a guess? >> i will not go there. >> how many would say i like the idea of sarah palin to be president of the united states? >> about the same. >> how much of the overlap is between people who don't like the particular reform aspects are losing rational aspects or worried about their taxes, and how many people are in love with the far right anti-big city, an hi hollywood, anti-new york and washington person. >> i think health care is largely a function of the largest world view, but in the cultural conservativism and the skepticism -- white voters over

the last decade have been very skeptical of government. a poll we did last week, does government create more opportunity or obstacles for personal advancement? among non-college white men, it was 2 to 1. the health care argument is fitting into a broader construct that obama faces, that is the shift in government does not appear to be as much as they were hoping when coming into office. there's still a lot of skepticism through health care and trade, we are reaching far into the economy. that's the core republicans are successfully tapping into and obama can win some of these arguments, but there's no question there's a larger, there is a small government constituency and anti-government constituency you are seeing mobilized here and the challenge for proponents is to find energy comparable on the other side. >> a lot of the energy, some of the reason the large crowds that conservatives are able to

mobilize against health care, they do that through misinformation. a lot of the -- absolutely. >> what misinformation? >> that president obama and the democrats plans for health care reform will result in euthanasia for the elderly. there's a proposal that health care paid for counseling, if you want, if you voluntarily decide that you want to talk about a living will or talk to your doctor about who is 'tis care, end of life care, that will be paid for. conservatives have taken that and lied about it outright and said basically they are going to leave the elderly out on rice to die. >> cynthia, it is great to have you sitting here. i had dan paulson and now you guys. up next, hillary clinton can't stop laughing when somebody said john bolden didn't like her husband.

i sam so with hillary on this. this is a great hoot of the times. it is not our job to bring home jobs to america. forget about it. you are watching "hardball" on msnbc. these days every penny counts with everything you buy. every head. every bite. every gallon. every shoe. every book. every cereal. well, maybe not every cereal. but every stem. every stitch. every tune. every toy. pretty much everything you buy can help your savings account grow because keep the change from bank of america rounds up every debit card purchase to the next dollar and transfers the difference from your checking to savings account. it's one of the many ways we make saving money in tough times a whole lot easier. it's one of the many ways we make saving money ♪ [ female announcer ] for underarms that are sexy smooth, get secret flawless touch with olay.

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back to "hardball." time for the "sideshow." first up, want to see hillary clinton laugh?

mention john boulton, bush's hawkish u.n. ambassador who you remember needed a recess appointment to get the job back in 2005. here she is on cnn yesterday defending bill's rescue mission in north korea. >> it was not in any way an official government mission. >> but john boulton, the former u.n. ambassador -- should i even go on? >> i'm sorry. no, you really shouldn't. >> he said this is rewarding hostage taking. why is he wrong? because you -- they effectively took hostages -- >> we've done this so many times before. it had nothing to do with our policy. and of course, you know, you mention somebody who, heavens, if president obama walked on water, he'd say he couldn't swim. >> wow, good line, good defense, good offense. john boulton, by the way, was one of the people who took us into war and would love to do it again. next, a shake-up in the governor's mansion down in south carolina. the first lady of south carolina put out a statement, a public statement today, that she was moving out of the governor's mansion leaving mark sanford,

the governor, behind. she and her four sons are moving back to her home in charleston. look, it's kind of an official thing here, an official move, issues an official statement like that one, moving out of the official residence like that one. i guess we're supposed to notice all this official business. i guess the governor is supposed to notice. who knows? lots of drama following that flight by him down to argentina. obviously, we're here at "hardball" rooting for him to get his life back together. time now for tonight's big number, whether or not you think the government's bank bailout and economic recovery package were necessary to stabilize the economy or whether you happen to think we just should let recessions come and go as they will, there's no denying they come at a cost to the government, a big one. the economy produces less in revenues, unemployment insurance and other programs run up more costs to the government. in just the first ten months of this budget year which started october 1st, 2008, what happened to the federal deficit? where does it stand? at a record $1.3 trillion right now. that's the federal deficit. it's heading towards $2 trillion for the year, and that may complicate the president's push

for health care reform. the deficit for the year is already $1.3 trillion, tonight's "big number." that's "hardball for now. coming up next, "your business." [ female announcer ] olay goes beyond everyday clean to a deep micro-clean. olay deep cleansers reach the micro-particles of dirt some basic cleansers can leave behind for a clean so deep its micro-clean. olay deep cleansers. what do you say to a spin around the color wheel?

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