dems will actually lose control of the house of representatives and that a republican will be elected speaker of the house. could the prospect of losing their seats next november cause many democrats this november to vote against health care? and we have a very american story to tell you tonight about a true patriot named william cahir. as his friends describe him, he always wanted to be out there defending his country. that's why he became a journalist. that's why he ran for congress. and that's why he became a marine. it was as a marine that william cahir died last week while out on patrol. another terrible loss in a war being fought largely under the radar. we'll look at william cahir's life and at the war he died fighting. also, i think one story that's been overlooked recently is hillary clinton's terrific work in africa. we'll give her the credit she's due in "the politics fix" tonight. and dancing with the hammer? can you believe tom delay is going to be "dancing with the stars"? that's right, tom freaking texas two step delay. that's in the "hardball

sideshow." we begin with the fight for health care reform. congressman jim cooper of tennessee is a democrat, and u.s. congressman phil gingrey is a republican from georgia. both members of the all-powerful energy and commerce committee. i want to start with jim cooper. jim, i watched you over the years be the moderate democrat from the middle part of the country, from tennessee, and i watched the role you played back in '94 trying to craft a more moderate version of health care up against the clintons. i saw the clintons go down in terrible defeat. they lost dozens and dozens of house seats, as you know, in '94. they blew it, you could say. i watched ted kennedy blow it back in the '70s when nixon wanted to push through a complete employer mandate, a much more radical health care bill than we're even talking about now. democratic liberals keep saying we want it all, they keep losing it all. what's going to happen this time? >> i think we can get a good health reform bill done this year on the president's time table. i think this dispute over the public option really depends on how you define it.

i think we can get a good public option through that even the u.s. senate would think is a good reform. but it's very important that we define it carefully so that it appeals to folks in all 50 states. there's a lot of unnecessary concern about it today because a lot of folks think there would not be a level playing field. it's very important that the government plan not have any unfair advantage. i think we can construct one that does the key thing, and this is the most important issue and president obama stressed it again and again. keep the insurance companies honest. we can put together a good public option that does exactly that. >> and you believe it could pass with 51 or rather 60 democrats in the senate, perhaps 60 including a couple republicans, and get 218 in the house? could we get a bill? >> i think we can. >> this fall? >> this fall. the key hurdle though is 60 votes in the senate because reconciliation will not apply to any real health care reform bill, so you have to really be aiming, as tom daschle said in his confirmation hearings, for 70 or 80 votes, but you at least have to get 60.

that means it's got to be bipartisan to have a health care reform bill become law. >> you're talking against kent conrad who is chairman of the budget committee and he ought to know, and he says you can't get a public option through the senate. >> but it depends on how you define t he says a co-op might work and that's a real public option if you define the co-op carefully so it protects consumer rights. and the key thing is not only keeping insurance companies honest, but also benchmark pricing. so you know what a fair deal is on a good health insurance policy. today a lot of americans don't know that. >> let me go to congressman gingrey. it seems like the republicans talk alternatives when the democrats have a health care bill but you don't get anything through when you guys are in charge. what's the story? >> well, chris -- >> is there a free-standing republican approach? is there a republican plan for health care? >> there is definitely a plan for health care, and i could list about six items that we are in favor of, and i think the democrats -- i'm sure jim cooper, a strong blue dog and a

good fiscal conservative, would agree with our plan, but the one thing we do not agree on is this idea of a public option. and that is what the american people are telling the president, telling democratic members across the country. you know, we don't want this. we do not want the government taking over health care, and why do we have to have a government option keeping the health insurance industry honest? same thing for the automobile industry or every industry across the country. the government has to be in there to keep corporate america honest? the steel industry, for example? you pick one and name one. the american people are saying we want health care reform. the republicans are saying we want health care reform, but we don't want a government takeover. we don't want socialized medicine and national health care. >> those words are frightening to a lot of people. let me ask you this about a moderate forum, what congressman cooper just mentioned. what do you think of a co-op? >> well, chris, i'm not sure we know what that co-op is.

kent conrad has talked about it. all the machinations going on in the senate finance committee, it's all been kept close to the vest. i don't think the american people really know what this co-op would look like. i want to look at it closely. and certainly i will take -- just like senator shelby said on sunday, let's take a look at it and let's make sure. i think anything is better than this government option that's in there competing with an unfair advantage on an unequal playing field. >> let me ask, mr. cooper, congressman, would you try to sell mr. begin gingrey right now on live television some sort of modified public plan that would not offend people concerned about socialism? >> phil is a good friend of mine, but he's tough to sell on these things. a co-op is really used over three-quarters of the land area of america so we buy our electricity that way. it's a creature of the new deal. it's worked really pretty well over all the country for 70 or 80 years. it's owned by the customers, not owned by the government. it works. it works real well. there are good ways to solve this problem.

i think the key is to be open-minded, to not use alarmist rhetoric, to focus on the real problem of 47 million uninsured americans today. unaffordable health care for virtually everybody. and really a runaway health care system that does not provide the quality we deserve in america. we can solve any problem we want to in this great country. let's put our minds together and calmly and rationally solve this health care problem. it's eluded every president for 60 years, but we can do it and we can do it without a big government solution. >> mr. gingrey, your response? >> my response is i agree with jim. things like association health plans, equalizing the tax treatment, making sure people that get their insurance through a small employer or individual market get the same tax benefit, tax break, discounted insurance, making sure that we create statewide high-risk pools so people that have pre-existing conditions don't pay -- certainly don't pay more than

1.5 to 2 times the standard rates, and they also get an opportunity to get a subsidy if they need that from the federal government if they're low income, say below 300% of the federal poverty level. >> any chance -- do you think there's any chance of a compromise? i mean, seriously, if we get something that's -- if it's just something -- suppose the bill had the following elements, gentlemen. it basically tells young people who are healthy, hey you have to get some health insurance. you have to share some of the costs and risks of health insurance. employers, you will get some encouragement to have a health care plan. you won't be forced to. you'll get some enduringment r. poor people have to do their bit and kick in what they can afford for health care, but you will get some sort of subsidy. some general approach that basically gets everybody on the road towards coverage. congressman, could you support that or would you still basically take a free enterprise approach and not really want the government even to go that far? >> well, chris, i could support that, and quite honestly, i believe i could sit down with jim cooper, people like us on a

bipartisan basis, and we could work this out. you talk about young people wanting to encourage them to have health insurance, but at the same time why would we do something like destroy these high deductible, low premium policies combined with a health savings account, the very thing that the young people want and need so they have catastrophic coverage. according to hr-3200, we would actually be destroying that and creating more in the ranks of the uninsured, not less. >> you know, i understand there's a left and a right, and i understand people really disagree, mr. cooper, but let me ask you this. you spoke about it this weekend. you come from the center part of the country. we know the issue of the second amendment. it's part of our law, part of our constitution, part of our heritage, we live with it. it can be dangerous but we prefer rights over control of people's lives. okay. that given, why has the gun issue come into this? why are people toting firearms to these -- and a couple of cases, more than a couple cases now, people are bringing loaded revolvers to these town meetings.

one showed up the other day, we had him on the show, in a meeting with the president in portsmouth, new hampshire. you mentioned it this weekend. why do people who care about gun rights, which seems to be somewhat separate from this issue, getting involved in the health care debate? >> chris, it's a free country and under our constitution the second amendment is just as important as the first amendment or any other amendment in our bill of rights. so that's the way that it is, and we need to -- >> but why are they bringing it up here in this health care debate? why are people showing up armed and ready, and i'm serious, it's not funny, because one of these times somebody is going to pull one of these guns out. i don't know what their rules of engagement are, but if you bring a loaded gun somewhere, sooner or later somebody is going to use one because they will get provoked. i just wonder what you think the connection is between the second amendment, which we accept under the constitution, it's there, it's a right in the bill of rights, why is that an issue in the health care debate? >> well, all i know is there's a lot of emotion right now, and if everyone would just be calm and rational and fair to each other and listen to both sides, we can solve this problem and any other problem.

the key is clear communication. america is the greatest country in the history of the world. we just got to allow our great citizens to talk clearly to each other and we can do that. >> what is the connection between the second amendment and health care. this happened again today. this isn't something cooked up by us. this is people bringing guns to these public meetings. why? >> well, chris, they may have every right to do that. >> we know that. >> these may be off-duty police officers. they could -- well, you don't know, but if they've got a permit to carry, then absolutely they can show that and prove that they have the right. >> but why would you bring a gun to where the president was speaking? why would you bring a gun -- i know it's a right. but why would you do it? under what conditions would you choose to use it? you don't bring a gun somewhere you don't intend to ever use it so why would you bring a gun into a situation like a public meeting? i have never seen this in my life before. people coming armed to public debates about health care? >> chris, it just so happens these very people would take

that same weapon anywhere they go. anywhere they're permitted to carry a concealed weapon. they have the right to do that. >> we're looking at it -- you guys -- i have an advantage on you. i am looking at a gentleman who has guns on their holsters. they're not concealed. they're displaying their weaponry. armed weaponry at these public meetings. what's going on? why are people coming armed to public meetings? >> well, chris, if they have the right to do that, i have no fear of it. i've had already five town hall meetings. i have six more planned. i don't plan to wear bullet proof vests. in fact i usually get standing ovations when i come into these meetings. i have no fear. >> how about this, would you discourage americans regardless of race, color, creed, or political identification, not to come armed to public meetings? would you discourage them from doing that? >> my answer is yes.

>> no, i would not -- yeah. >> congressman cooper says he's a moderate. i guess by today's terminology a moderate is somebody who says, please don't come armed to public meetings. mr. gingrey, your opportunity. you can say what you want. do you think people should come armed to public meetings to discuss health care or not? >> i would think that they should exercise their rights under the second amendment. >> thank you very much. you made yourself clear. congressman, good luck, mr. cooper. last time you played a big role. i hope you can find a compromise. nothing is worse than doing nothing. should democrats be concerned about the upcoming midterm elections? we think they do have something to worry. that may cause some of them to vote no on this health care bill just out of fear.

coming up, he was a washington reporter who joined the marines at a late age to fight for his country. last week sergeant bill cahir was killed in afghanistan. we're going to learn more about this american hero, and he is one, when "hardball" returns.

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welcome back to "hardball." ever since world war ii, the new president's party has lost seats in congress the first time out in the congressional elections coming up the year later. some notable years, 1966 when president lyndon johnson lost four senate seats and 47 house seats. in '94 bill clinton lost eight senate seats and 52 house seats. will the trend continue for president obama come 2010 next year? joining me to look ahead, msnbc political analyst pat buchanan and the "national journal's" charles cook. editor of "the cook political report." well, this is a bit for political junkies, but we have some who watch. who just want to know what's going on. the reason i think it's topical, i think a lot of members of congress, especially from swing districts who managed to get in by 52%, 53% are thinking next year and thinking how they're going to vote. charlie cook, are you along -- are you with those who think that there's a real possible

chance, one in three, one in four, that the house could go republican next time? >> i think -- >> they'd have to lose about 30, 40 seats. >> 40 seats. i think that's too high. obviously it's possible. we saw it in 1994, but i think it's pretty unlikely, but i think the odds of them losing say 20 seats, getting their margin cut in half, that's a very real possibility. what political -- >> that would still give them control, 236 seats with about an 18-seat majority for control. >> and arguably the people they would lose, a lot of those are some of the blue dogs who are not voting with them anyway, but the thing is you like to have that cushion, and it would reflect on the president. >> what's your gut -- i know you don't like to make too many predictions, but at this point nobody is going to remember you made it. is it your sense this is going to be a typical off-year? >> i think it's going to be fairly typical. right now we have democrats losing about nine seats. my guess is it will get up to 20 or so. >> george bush sr. lost nine. >> yeah. >> that's about average. >> reagan lost -- >> and he was pretty popular.

>> reagan lost 26 in bad economic times in '82, but i think george w. bush gained seats in 2002, which is astonishing. >> because he did a brilliant job, i don't like it, he forced the democrats to vote on the war before we went to the war. >> i agree with charlie. i think you're talking 20 to 25 seats. i think obama is in trouble. he's got a couple of problems, chris. the tremendous black turnout, 13%, is going to fall back. the white turnout, which was depressed last time somewhat, i think is coming out. you have these populist folks out there angry -- ipy that's going -- >> anger drives the voters. >> plus bush is gone. bush was a tremendous weight on the republican ticket. >> you think he's forgotten in terms -- you don't think the democrats can drag out the wet cat again and whack him again? >> they'll try, it would be very foolish. i think they have real problems. chris, i think people have handled these -- these crowds out there terribly. 40% of democrats think the protesters are behaving properly. 64% of moderates think.

these are the swing voters. they're the hillary democrats that obama -- >> let me ask this. television can be selective in the pictures we take. you have seen the pictures we've seen. not just the few guys with guns, but these people really manically yelling at congress people. >> some of them are very angry, but most folks -- you know what most folks are saying? two to one, they identify with them. people are angry, especially the white working middle class in particular. >> i don't condone the way they do it, the screaming and yelling, in the face, waving the fingers and all that. but the thing about it, for the blue dogs, those are their constituents. this was giving, i think, the left of the democratic party a little window into the lives of these democrat -- >> because they never get that lesson. they never learn. i worked -- the trouble with the guys in the big cities and the women from the big cities, the minority congress people don't know what a general election looks like, do they? >> no -- >> the suburban guys, the guys from rural areas who manage to squeak in with 52% are always thinking about that 3% they need to hold.

>> i think it will be easier for president obama to dump the public option because of the town meetings. it will be easier -- sort of like it's a dose -- it's a bucket of ice water on the heads of the liberal -- >> hear that? that's pretty smart. >> i do. i also think dumping the physician counselors, aka death panels -- >> it's gone. because of the way it's been interpreted by its enemies. >> look at specter in pennsylvania. there's going to be no provision for health insurance, free health insurance for illegal aliens. all these things -- >> did he say that? >> yes, he did. all these things set those folks off. if you're going to get something, get all of that out of there. i think the way -- >> let me tell you one thing -- one reason you and i -- we don't agree on many things, but one thing you can say about national health insurance, you have to have an i.d. card. you have to be who you claim you are. nobody is going to get free national health insurance without identifying themselves personally. it's crazy. there's going to have to be some identification of people. they can't come in and bs their way into free health care. they have to be here legally or not.

but this idea that you're going to get free -- but, pat -- that's the point. >> sure. >> i don't think most people believe you should get anything free if you're here illegally. >> you should have your social security card and run the card through the system. >> verify. >> you have a sense -- here's my sense. the president is sitting there with rahm emanuel right now looking at next year's election and looking at what we're talking about saying, look, it's time to drop the baggage and go with what we need to get across the finish line. some kind of individual mandate that says young people have got to be part of -- we've got to get everybody in health insurance in some way. some kind of encouragement to employers, not a law. not like nixon wanted to go with a mandate, but something to get employers to kick in. and, third, subsidies for working people who are willing to do their bit but don't have enough to pay health insurance, all right? and then clean up this crap about pre-existing conditions and portability. and all that stuff. a bill like that to me would be historic. that could pass the senate --

>> and i think obama -- >> but can he sell that as a victory? >> who does he have to sell it to? who won't take that as a victory? >> a lot of people will say he tried to get government control, now he's scaling back. it wasn't for lack of trying. >> that wouldn't go well for him in a million years. >> i agree with you, and i can't see how liberal democrats will vote against something like that which does 60% of what they want done. how could you vote against this? >> what's this 100 votes that will vote against the bill if they don't have the public option? >> that's baloney. >> i think it's posturing. and we saw jim coop over today, a moderate. he was positioning himself as the guy who wants the public option. you know why? if they don't get it, he won't be blamed for it. >> who's going to call it -- well, public option. that fellow was doing that -- >> did you notice that? >> sure. and he lied -- >> let me ask you, you don't like making predictions, but i have to do it here. will there be a health care bill? >> oh, yeah. >> will there be a health care bill? >> i think there will be one. >> we will have a signing ceremony and will it change anything? will it be good for the country? >> i'm not sure. i think the republicans got the taste of blood. i think they're really going after this. and i think things --

there's so much rage and anger and this co-op is so confusing, there might not be, but i think any republican who thinks this thing is completely dead is mistaken. >> i think kent conrad is right, 60 votes are hard to get. you can't get it for public option. you will end up getting 61 votes probably for health care in the senate because senator kennedy is ill. can't make the vote. bobby byrd is always tricky, but he'll make the vote. i think they're going to get olympia snowe and mike enzi from arizona. >> wyoming. >> wyoming. i think that's going to do it. in the house he will end up getting 218 because they can lose. they can lose about 40 and still win it. so you get to 218 in the house. you get to 61 in the senate. you pass the thing. that's what i think. don't you agree? >> that's my feeling, they can do it. i'm not saying they will do it. >> they will. >> the thing about it is it will be seen as a fraction of what -- >> i think politics work. i think the crazy town meetings help. i think you're right. that was a brilliant assessment, charles cook. that's why you're so good. in a weird way the guys with the guns have probably helped them. shown the virulence of the critics. >> which will make them suicidal.

>> we'll be back. i take it back, you're not that brilliant. pat buchanan, charles cook. up next, house majority leader tom delay has been called the hammer for good reason. now he's the dancer. can you see this guy do the cha cha cha, the tango? might be the texas two-step. we're looking at this guy. does everybody want to be on the stage? guys...

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back to "hardball." time for the "sideshow." first, a sugar plum for the ages. guess. go ahead, guess, who is just joining the cast of "dancing with the stars"? mr. tom delay. that's tom delay to you. the former house majority leader. the 62-year-old texas hard as nails congressman and soddy buster to the nth degree. a guy so tough they call him the

hammer. delay says he's been working out like crazy to compete next month with 15 other reality contestants. he'll be on "hardball" tomorrow night to talk about it. we'll ask him how that texas two-step is coming. i dare not even talk about his possible cha cha chat. next the blooper heard around the world. that's what "new york times" columnist paul krugman is charitably calling this latest piece of misinformation from the right wing editorial board over at investors business daily. the newspaper was looking to make an example out of stephen hawking who is paralyzed. in an editorial entitled "how house bill runs over grandma," the business daily took a shot at the government-run british health care system writing, quote, catch this, people such as scientist stephen hawking wouldn't have a chance in the uk where the national health service would say the life of this brilliant man because of his physical handicaps is essentially worthless. here's the skinny. hawking was born in the uk and has lived his entire life with health care from the national health service in britain.

so now the newspaper has printed a correction and hawking put out his own statement praising the british national health system for what he called its high quality treatment saying he wouldn't be here today without that health care system in england. wasn't the truth breathtaking. finally a shout out to the mayor of milwaukee, mayor tom barrett was leaving the wisconsin state fair this weekend when he heard the screams of a woman he discovered was trying to protect her baby granddaughter from a young man in what's being described by police as a domestic dispute. after mayor barrett tried to help the woman protect her granddaughter, the man involved hit him with a lead pipe. the mayor fought back and the guy fled the scene. result, the woman and baby are fine. the guy was arrested. the mayor now a hometown hero is recovering with just a fractured hand and other injuries at a local hospital. time for tonight's "big number." it has some bad news for the president. in a new "usa today"/gallup poll, how many people say they

don't believe the stimulus package is working? 57%. a solid majority. 57% of americans don't believe their stimulus dollars are going to work for them. that's tonight's "big number." that said, as my hero winston churchill put it, there are two kinds of success, initial and ultimate. let's see how this recovery works out. up next, the story of a true american hero whose life changed on september 11th. a journalist who joined the marine corps with the hope of making a difference. he just died in afghanistan.

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a miami man is under arrest in the largest case of online credit card theft in u.s. history. 28-year-old gonzalez is accused of stealing and trying to sell

130 million credit and debit card numbers. the numbers came from computers at a bank card processing center. the 7-eleven corporation and a supermarket chain. a grand jury indicted sunday school teacher melissa huckaby on charges she kidnapped, raped and killed sandra cantu. wall street analysts have been saying the market is due for a correction. major markets losing 2% on the day. the dow jones industrials down 186 points. the s&p 500 finishing more than 24 points lower. and the nasdaq falling more than 54 points. i said when i announced this

strategy there will be more difficult days ahead. the insurgency in afghanistan didn't just happen overnight and we won't defeat it overnight. this will not be quick, nor easy. but we must never forget, this is not a war of choice. this is a war of necessity. those who attacked america on 9/11 are plotting to do so again. if left unchecked, the taliban insurgency will mean an even larger safe haven. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was president obama this afternoon talking about the war in afghanistan at the vfw convention in phoenix and, of course, his warning of difficult days ahead ring true for the family of sergeant william cahir who was killed in afghanistan last thursday. sergeant kahir enlisted in the marine corps reserves after 9/11. it hit him so hard, 9/11. he served two tours of duty in iraq before his deployment in afghanistan. sergeant cahir was a journalist and last year a democratic congressional candidate up in pennsylvania, in state college. that's where penn state is. his wife, rene, is expecting twins. there she is. bret lieberman is a close friend of sergeant cahir.

they worked together. at the newhouse news service. we don't do this enough. this guy was like us in a way but better. i mean, he was a journalist. he ran for office. tell me about your friend. this guy just got killed in afghanistan. >> yeah. he wasn't like us in the sense that he didn't like to be on the sidelines. everything he did he wanted to change something, be involved. he didn't want to just cover the news at a school. he went to work on the hill. he wanted to change things. he worked for harris waford. he worked for ted kennedy there. he became a journalist. he serves the community. he really cared about the communities he covered. just completely dedicated to the facts. after 9/11, like a lot of people, he was touched by what happened. wanted to make a difference, but he didn't want to just cover it. he wanted to be actively making a difference. felt the best way to do that was join the marines, and he was 34 at the time. >> he had to push the age thing.

>> he had to get a waiver, get permission, and, you know, he had to give up a career. he was a reservist, he was able to go back, but at age 34 he was in there with kids half his age. drill sergeants, you know, gave him a tough time. he was a college graduate. he really gave up a lot, but that was part of the commitment that bill had. >> did he know -- i mean nobody knows going into battle what the outcome is going to be. did he know what he was facing? >> he knew. this is a sign. before he deployed, i got an e-mail. my wife reminded me of this. this morning. he knew, he wrote that -- a lot of people say oh, no, when they heard they're going for a third deployment. he said, i knew i signed up for it. this is what i committed to. and he was -- >> he was like 40, right? >> he turned 40 last december. but he felt like, you know what? this is an honest job. he actually wrote that in the e-mail, and he wanted to make a difference. he felt this is the best way he could do it. >> and he left his beautiful wife behind pregnant with two -- with twins. >> yeah, twins.

>> i don't usually do this, but this isn't a usual situation. what should we do about this? >> we started a fund. the bill cahir memorial fund launched online today. billcahirmemorial.org. anything you can do to help out the family. whether it's -- later, on baby gifts, stuff like that -- >> c-a-h-i-r. bill cahir. >> this will help pay for the kids growing up. >> clothes, college, you name it. it won't make up for the loss but it will help and it will -- help them keep the memory alive. >> i hope everybody sees that. we don't do this enough. we talk about wars around here and we talk about politics of wars and we disagree with some wars, and i think afghanistan has been recognized as a war of necessity by everybody, and that's where the enemy came from on 9/11. that's where he went and fought, and that's where he died. >> that's why bill felt it was important to go. >> thank you very much. what a pal you are. what a good guy you are. we're going to come back and talk politics. we have a lot to talk about today. we're going to talk about -- there it is, by the way.

thank you. the fund that's been set up for sergeant cahir's family. donations can be sent to bill cahir memorial fund at burk and herbert bank care of mark ragland at p.o. box 268 alexandria, virginia 22313. i'm racing cross country in this small sidecar, but i've still got room for the internet. with my new netbook from at&t. with its built-in 3g network, it's fast and small, so it goes places other laptops can't. i'm bill kurtis, and wherever i go, i've got plenty of room for the internet.

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they have been more focused on a co-op, not for profit co-op

as a competitor as opposed to a straight government-run program, and i think what's important is choice and competition, and i'm convinced at the end of the day the plan will have both of those, but that is not the essential element. >> well, back -- time for "the politics fix" with "usa today's" susan page, who is elsewhere in washington, and there she is, and the "chicago tribune's" clarence page. let me ask you both about these headlines. here is today's front pages. of course, "the new york times," quote, public option and health plan may be dropped. that's right at the top. "the washington post," key feature of obama health plan may be out. susan's paper, "the usa today," public insurance gets iffy. well, susan, it seems to me that these are the ways that the administration has chosen to do this. they're going with what they believe they need, i think, an individual mandate, people have to participate in health care, a subsidy for working people, some kind of push for employers to insure people and reform in terms of pre-existing conditions and portability.

in other words, they're going for a health reform bill rather than a big, big bill that would have a big public program involved, public option. it looks like it. still a possibility of a co-op. what do you think is going to happen? >> you know, i thought it was surprising this morning when we heard about tom delay being on "dancing with the stars." i thought it was not surprising that the administration is backing away from the public option. there's been a lot of signals that that is not what they consider to be critical. that's not something that they go to the mat for, and it's probably not something they can hold on to if they want to get the support, not just of republicans, but of some conservative democrats. so i thought we saw this was kind of a reality check on what the final package is likely to look like. >> clarence? >> that's true. they never had the votes in the senate for the public option -- >> they never had the 60. >> exactly. and i think the administration decided it's time to let everybody know what reality is, and especially on the left because they are going to get hammered for that. some folks already -- some of

the congressional democrats are already saying, well, what's the point if you haven't got a public option, but nobody knows what a co-op is exactly. i think they're going to try to package something that comes close without being government-run. a co-op is run by the members, but, you know, it's a nice squishy concept right now they're hoping will cushion the blow they're going to get -- >> maybe, clarence, my friend, you might be to my left on this one, but that's a safe place for me to be. and, susie, you don't take any position, but it seems to me if you can walk away at thanksgiving time if you're president of the united states and say for the first time in american history young people, healthy people who think they're immune to sickness are now going to have to participate in the health care system to share the costs and risks of high health care with everybody, you're going to have a system of subsidies for working people to help them afford health insurance, you will encourage employers to pay for health insurance and solve problems like portability and

pre-existing conditions. you get all that, you sign it, that's better than nothing. >> they can get all, that that's better than nothing indeed. nobody knows how it's going to work. that's the question. it's not as simple of a concept as the public option which would be in general something like medicare for everybody. that's easier to say and explain than something that's going to be kind of a hybrid between medicare and a rural co-op or -- >> medicare is free. medicare is absolutely free. for the richest people in america, it's still absolutely free. once you have worked after a couple years of retirement, all the contributions you have made. over your life. it doesn't take long. then the rest of it is free for life. >> right. >> no plan is ever going to be that good, is it? >> no plan is perfect. >> go ahead, susan. >> i was going to say the hospital portion of medicare is free, but you do pay for medicare part "b" and you pay a premium for medicare part "d." so it's not entirely free, but it certainly is a system that seniors are pretty happy with. i actually think one helpful thing for the administration from these raucous town halls

we've seen is that, you know, liberals who might be very upset by losing the public option may think that health care is in some trouble because it is getting a lot of pushback and may be more willing to accept, you know, a co-op instead of a public option as opposed to getting nothing at all. >> so it's kind of like a rope-a-dope situation in a weird way without stretching the comparison between mohammed ali getting hit until the other guy runs out of juice. the idea he's getting hit so hard teaches the left, if you will, the left is a good enough term for me, that maybe they're lucky to get a bill. >> and, of course, democrats really want to get a bill. think how -- think what a big issue this was last year in the campaign and how long democrats have been trying to do this, since the clinton years, since the truman years. pretty close now, i think this is the argument president obama is trying to make, we're pretty close, we just need a little bit more to get us over the finish line for some kind -- the bill they're going to get this year is not going to solve every single health care problem. what they're aiming to do is get

something you can build on that has maybe an individual mandate. that would be a critical part -- >> i think he will be george akin and declare victim. take a look at this. here is the president's poll numbers. as this debate's heated up. up. his approval is going down. look at the black line. his disapproval is going up. they're about to converge. is it better for him to get a health care bill or not? >> he's got to get it. i wouldn't call it the waterloo but this is a defining issue. to lose on his biggest initiative, that would be really bad for him. >> here's the question. you're a rural democrat. i imagine you're a congress person from, oh, iowa, anywhere in the country, anywhere besides the big cities where people tend to be automatically democrat. are you better off with a bill that you have to defend or better off with a bill that's going down? >> if you're a democrat in a rural area? i think if you're a democrat you're better off with a bill that says we promise to tackle this issue. i don't see where any democrat gets an advantage if they don't

succeed. we've got 60 votes in the senate and a big majority in the house and the white house and they can't get a bill through on their top priority? that is not a great selling point. >> if that's true then i'll vote for it. we know how they say. here's the president today. let's listen. >> since there's been so much misinformation out there about health insurance reform let me say this. one thing that reform won't change is veterans health care. no one is going to take away your benefits. that is the plain and simple truth. we're expanding access to your health care, not reducing it. >> clarence, susan and i crafted the question. if you're better off having voted for a bill and the bill having passed, why wouldn't most democrats, in fact almost all democrats, vote for it? it's better for them politically.

>> most of them will. the blue dogs are the difficulty i hear. they don't want a bill that's too far to the left. but the fact is a majority of the public -- >> they ain't going to get it. >> obviously not. most of the public does want some kind of health care reform. how do you define reform? that's the question. it's better to have a specific bill to defend than what they've got now, which is just a lot of rumors floating around. >> back at '46 when they passed the employment act and committed this country to full employment, at least try every year to do that, that was a plus. try it with health care, at least get the commitment. we'll be right back with our guests. that's interesting. >> hillary clinton. no jokes. let's get serious about hillary clinton, what she did over there, because i think it is important. people think that honda is always the most fuel efficient choice. well, this chevy cobalt xfe has better highway mileage

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anont cfidedence ininin o. caususususlendnds s ve a a a t tcks. ququq n . clarence page and susan page with "the politics fix." let me start with susan. seems to me secretary of state clinton went to africa and spent 12 days in some unpleasant countries. countries at war, countries that pose danger to her as visitor. talked about blood diamonds. talked about women's rights which are not honored in the world many places. she got no credit for it. all she got is the cheap shot because of what she got when she lost it a bit with that question from that kid, what she thought was a question about her

husband's thinking, not hers. what do you make of all of this? >> i'm sure it was very frustrating for her. it was a long trip focused on issues that americans and american diplomats often don't pay that much attention to, in places like congo. but it is true that it was -- her husband was getting a lot more attention in north korea, and one incident at a news conference sort of is the thing that the public will -- the information the public got about the trip that she made. i'm sure that's disappointing. >> you know i was just over there on a family trip and i met a kid out of nowhere who was totally concerned with michael jackson. just to make the point -- the papers are covered with obama stuff. there are always -- millions and millions of africans are watching us all the time. they want us to show some respect and interest in our concerns. here's a person, the first person in a long time, who says, i'm going to give you 12 days. >> right. >> your thoughts? >> well, she was very -- well, for one thing the clintons are

very much respected, very much liked in africa. that particular place where she was where that incident occurred she was getting more pointed questions and comments there than in most places. but they were right on point for the most part, dealing with women's issues especially, which she's very strong on. as you know, problems, rape, aids, et cetera, very serious in africa. and she was raising the profile on that. but then she got upstaged. >> serious business. you've got the blood diamond trade where the whites are involved in it too. a lot of people -- the money over there, the bloodshed that goes on, the killing, the old tribal disputes have always been there but they're getting worse because of the fight over diamonds. the aid thing isn't going away. thank god george bush took an interest over there, susan, and he gets credit for it over there. the american people, a lot of us americans came from that part of the world and we all ultimately came from there, no matter what the anti-evolutionists think.

we all come back to lucy in some way. hillary clinton, how's this shaping up? what i call the coalition between the clintons and the obama faction. >> you see a little bit of a coalition with bill clinton as well as with hillary clinton. you saw him not just do the north korea trip but also go to a net roots convention the other day in pittsburgh where he advocated strongly for the obama health care plan. you know, there's a certain amount of scar tissue from last year's campaign between the obamas and the clintons. but bill clinton does offer barack obama some credentials with some more conservative democrats, maybe some democrats in the south, that -- where obama could use maybe a little bit of a boost. >> he's going to need a bigger boost next year. my theory is that the clintons are really going to be necessary to this coalition come next november when bill clinton's got to help with the white working class. >> notice how often the clintons are important to obama in the

clinch. during the campaign last year, against mccain, now at this point bill clinton speaking out for the health care reform last week. and hillary clinton, they've both been very good soldiers. >> i think it's a hell of a coalition. a strong phalanx for the democratic party. thank you. join us tomorrow for more "hardball." "countdown" with keith olbermann starts right now. which of these stories will you be talking about tomorrow? uh-oh. the public option, whether we have it or we don't have it, is not the entirety of health care reform. >> no, actually, mr. president, you're wrong. it is. remember? you just said the insurance companies were holding us hostage? >> that is not the essential element. >> no, actually, madame secretary, you're wrong. it is. it is the break on the out of control engine that is insurance greed. we well, at least you get something

of a first step, one that grandma plug puller grassley can sell to the death eaters as a good deal. >> it isn't a good deal if i can't sell my product to more republicans. >> well, at least they're opposing it on principle not political calculus. howard fineman on politics. lawrence o'donnell on the pushback. howard dean on the nate silver, that the number of solid votes is 43 or as low as 41. arianna huffington on the accidental emission of truth on the subject during "meet the press." >> this is a really important point. the antihealth care reform lobby thinks that medicare is tyranny. okay? >> worse, welcome to the public schools of texas where teaching the bible is now mandatory. and tom delay on "dancing with the stars" is not dancing. he's crushing cockroaches. michelle bachman says she will run for president if she