said throughout this, that this is a complex issue. and that health care reform has never been easy. this process is one that is messy. >> one of the messiest parts is the fight over a public option. nancy pelosi said it's not an option in her chamber. >> there's no way i can pass a bill in the house of representatives wi representatives without a public option. unless there's a better idea, that's how we're going forward. >> however, house majority leader steny hoyer has a much different tune --

guthrie is nbc's white house correspondent. there's a lot of tug of war, back and forth. you have the house majority leader, the speaker of the house. they don't seem to be singing the same tune here. >> this really illustrates the predicament the president is in. he knows he's going to see opposition from the republicans, but is also dealing with a fractured democratic party. there's a lot of division over the public option, a government insurance plan offered alongside private insurance plans. the president has expressed a preface to having a public option, but we just heard speaker pelosi -- without it. you hear the majority leader in the house saying it is optional. it illustrates this is a real

issue of contention. the white house feels they want to get health care reform done. if it has to be done with less than a public option, the signals are clear they would forgo that. >> and now, "the bigger picture." the news from tom daschle today comes as -- in the "wall street journal" today, peggy noonen openly suggests the president should consider scrapping his plans -- meanwhile, paul krugman wrote today about the frustration of those who helped get mr. obama elected. krugman points out the left wants the president to be tougher with republicans --

bruce -- to dismiss the idea that we should be paying attention to the process, said it's just august. but this is a bit unusual, isn't it? >> any health reform effort is a bit unusual because they come around every few decades and are really hard. this has been clearly a much tougher august for the white house than they ever anticipated, even without a bill coming out of the house, which what they hoped for. this has been the configurations of these meetings have set them back on their heels. >> ruth, i want to play for you part of the white house strategy, sort of dismissing the media in this. >> last year just about this

time, the republicans had just nominated their vice presidential candidate and everybody was, the media was obsessed with it and cable was 24 hours a day and obama's lost his mojo and -- you remember all that? there's something about august, going into september, where everybody in washington getting all wee-weed up. >> now not exactly sure what wee-weed up means, but think i can guess, just sort of a median focused or are the circumstances different because he says looking at that missed september deadline and mid-october if he wants to use a certain process. >> i think anytime a politician is complaining about media, it means they have a bigger problem and when barack obama starts complaining about his media coverage, you might have a little question about that since

he's gotten fairly good coverage throughout his career. i would look at not the media coverage nor the town hall meetings as a gauge of the public mood, but at the polls. and the polls suggest a rather dramatic decline in confidence of the president's health care proposals and a rather dramatic decline in his over all approval ratings. it should be worrisome to the white house. can i say that i actually disagree with both of my colleagues? i think the notion that the president's problem is that he hasn't compromised enough is just a little bizarre. if the president gave up on the public option and got the rest of what he was proposing, it would be an enormous, historic achievement. i think that peggy noonen's --

is a little premature. >> you know, what i was talking about earlier, about the nature of everything. nancy pelosi saying one thing to california constituents. hoyer saying another to his maryland constituents. how much of that is really the problem here? that these folks are going home and hearing what's being said and then react to the people who elected them. >> that's a good point. you say it both on the democratic and republican side. chuck grassley from iowa, obviously a key player in this, said after his town hall meeting, i'm airing my people. i have to listen to my people. i think the really interesting comment though came from steny hoyer because it is probably

true as speaker pelosi says, that she can't pass a bill out of the house without a public option, but the question is what happens next. is that a line in the sand so that house democrats are going to torpedo a conference compromise that excludes a public option or has a trigger or co-op or something short of a public option? i doubt it. i think that's the sort of useful point steny hoyer was making, this larger issue of expanding coverage, putting in insurance reforms, controlling costs is more important than one aspect, which is a public option. >> ruth, great to have you on. >> thanks for having me. >> you're welcome. health care of course will be a big topic this sunday on "meet the press." he'll be talking to joe scarborough and tavis smiley. and it may be true that steny

hoyer's making a valid point, but this mixed message, that's a problem for the democrats. >> it's exactly what the problem is. you can't have a strong united front unless you're speaking the same language. it's what they do. but then how do they get united? is that going to happen in august by the time they get back in september? >> well, they better hope so. >> do they know? all right. any way, david, we are ke keeping a close eye on hurricane bill. it has weakened to a category 2. bill is expected to pass between the island and u.s. shores saturday. bermuda's preparing for significant flooding. bill's weekends decreased to about 110 miles an hour. the coasts are going to be very

dangerous this weekend. bill's is expected to produce 20-foot high waves. john morales is the chief meteorologist in miami, one of the top hurricane experts in the country. what do you think it's going to look like up and down the eastern sea board? >> this is the main danger. the fact we'll have those dangerous rip tides on a weekend. we are concerned about that because they can pull everyone away from the coastline and the only way to get away from the rip tide is to swim parallel from the coast. please, this is not a weekend to be at the beaches. the projected path from the national hurricane center keeping it between bermuda and the u.s. coast as a category 2 to 3 hurricane. it is currently about 300 miles from bermuda. they are forecasting a three-foot storm surge with it. this storm, because it has a

very, very wide circulation, we're talking about tropical storm force winds extending out 300 miles from the center. they will be in that type of situation throughout this afternoon and tonight. therefore, a tropical storm warning currently in effect for bermuda. you can see that the eye is not as well defined as it was yesterday. the hurricane hunter aircraft have been flying frequently into the system and they have found that the central pressure has risen. that means the system is weakening. some of the high level cirrus clouds approaching the u.s. coastline. the main danger for the u.s. coast will be the high swells, those waves coming in from o offshore. the canadian maritime may see some remnants of the system by

sunday. >> all right. john morales, thanks very much. you heard that bill and hillary clinton were among those high tailing it out of bermuda, right? >> it's so interesting. it's been raining here, but ironically, all the rain up and down the east coast, that is keeping the hurricane so far offshore because of these various pressure systems. it's bad now, but won't get worse. >> clearly, you're a silver lining kind of guy. up next, new, gruesome details in a model's murder that has sparked an international man hunt. what the killer did and how police hope to find her reality star boyfriend. plus, why some analysts think the majority party could lose more than 20 seats. and it's been a rough august for president obama. how will the week-long vacation he's on now affect the debate

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welcome back to "the big picture." a reality tv show contestant is on the run after being charged with the murder of a model who was his ex-wife. >> authorities believe ryan jenkins has fled to his native canada. law officials in california tend to collect evidence against him. he appeared on megan wants a millionaire.

28-year-old jasmine fiore's body was found stuffed in a suitcase in california. horrifying new details have emerged about her murder. miguel has the latest. >> david and alex, police say she was in fact strangled to death and the crime seen was certainly a grizzly one. her teeth and fingers were missing. presumably an attempt to delay the identification of her body. that launched the international man hunt for ryan jenkins, the man who married her in march and is accused of her murder. >> and as far as some of these details, i mean, i understand that this sort of record, that he has a history of arrests for domestic abuse? >> yes, he does have a record. it started in canada in 2007.

he had an assault charge and is serving 15 months of probation for that. then he was in a real estate scam also in canada. also, he was charged with domestic violence. he was going to court on that in december, but she filed those charges some time ago as well. the family has said the two had an an and off relationship. >> how certain are they they're going to be able to grab this man and do it quickly? >> u.s. police are working with the canadian mountain police in order to track him down. they are not 100% positive, but believe he may have entered cana canada. today we hear that the canadian police are using dogs to track him down.

they have concerns he may be armed and dangerous. >> miguel, thanks so much for the report. alex, you know, the sound of the police and their news conference today as they described the murder was just horrific. we're going to play some of that in our next hour. >> yeah, and this guy, they say that he really tried to have him lose his trail, that he drove up there, got into a boat in washington state, they believe. went via the water to a peninsula right on the border and just literally walked into canada. >> amazing. just ahead, what president obama said today about those disputed election results in afghanistan. was the vote really fair? and later, new proof that it's tough to see where you're going when you're wearing a mascot costume. wet cat food...

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what you need to know today. much of the world is awaiting the results of the presidential election in afghanistan. >> those results are expected as early as tomorrow. millions of afghans defied the risk to cast their ballots. the turnout was much lower than for the country's first election. at least 26 afghans were killed in election-related violence. today, president obama praised those who voted. >> millions of afghans exercised the right to choose their leaders and determine their own destiny. as i watched the election, i was struck by their courage. >> in other news, michael jackson is not going to be laid

to rest after all on august 29th. a family spokesman says he will be at the great -- on september 3rd. no reason for the delay. a deranged passenger on a southwest airline flight was arrested yesterday. here's why. police say the 21-year-old man exposed himself to the woman sitting next to him, then punched her, then fought with others while he was naked. this is a big guy. this flight was bound for las vegas. it was forced to return to oakland, california. >> you know, alex, they always say they are the crazy people on airplanes. more proof right there. >> when i get in a plane, i fly a lot back and forth, i always do this and check out people next to me and just look away.

get a book, read. but that poor lady -- >> watch out for the naked guy. >> thank you. up next, presidential vacations. >> conservatives are already criticizing president obama over his trip to martha's vineyard. and compare his vacation to how other presidents spent their first august in office. and can brad pitt save hollywood? a bad summer at the movies has movie moguls wonder what happened to the a list out there. fancy feast appetizers. simple high quality ingredients like wild alaskan salmon, white meat chicken, or seabass anshrimp in a delicate broth, prepared without by-products or fillers. new fancy feast appetizers.

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right now, it's been a strong session for the dow. the national association of realtors say home sales have

soared. the highest level of sales in nearly two years. morgan stanley is in the process of hiring 400 traders and sales people to dig itself out of a series of losses. it's second quarter loss while goldman sachs reported stronger earnings. southwest air lelines is on track to provide in-flight wi-fi service. that's it from cnbc. back to you at msnbc. welcome back. i'd david schuster, live in washington. >> i'm alex witt in new york. president obama is kicking off his first summer vacation as presidents. this afternoon, he boarded marine one bound for camp david. the obamas, who are paying their own way, they are expected to

say in an exclusive mansion on the blue herring farm. the president's vacation comes as confidence in his leadership has declined. a new poll finds 49% of americans have confidence that president obama will make the right editidecisions for the co. the over all approve rating stands out 57%. the president's vacation comes at a time when the country is facing major economic blows. a conservative group which helped with the election in 2004 is is using obama's va kags as a part of a new ad. >>

right now that we're in a recession and in war on two fronts, that is i'm sure, one of the reasons that president obama is just taking the one week, which is not very long. >> susan, thanks so much. we appreciate you coming in. alex, whether it's fair or not, you can sense the people in washington already, these groups that are eager over those new ads, people trying to turn it against him. >> and you know, when i think about martha's vineyard, i think about two things. both clinton-related. when princess diana died, he spoke about that, then the other, don't you remember the president and hillary clinton walking together, chelsea was

between them. >> then he came back from martha's vineyard and gave a prime time speech. so strange things happen when presidents go on vacation. now also talking about strange, what's going on in hollywood and can brad pitt save hollywood? >> well, that's the question that movie moguls are asking, david, following the disappointing swing in the box office. brad pitt is starring in quentin tarantino's new film. we should point out it's being coreleased by nbc universal. we're talking about julia roberts, john travolta -- they

teamed up. also -- and "the new york times" is reporting that some of those stars' salaries could be in jeopardy. meantime, the three biggest films of the summer, "transformers," "up" and "harry potter and the half-blood prince," really are a big deal. joining us now from burbank, president of box office with hollywood.com. and a good morning to you. afternoon. i'm usually a morning girl. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about the expectations. is that the kind of film to save the season? does it need to be saved? >> in a sense, it does because we're just running neck and neck with last year's summer revenues, which means we're behind by about 4%. but "district 9" was a huge hit

last weekend, starring wait for it, charles -- have you ever heard of him? this weekend, we have brad pitt. i think the combination of tarantino's brand and brad pitt are going to -- i think it will do in the mid-30s. >> i'm curious, as everyone has felt this economic recession, and hollywood has to agree with the box office, have the stars' salaries been scaled downward? >> i've been hearing a lot of stories about that, where they would normally get 20 million up front and are taking less. just based on your name, if you were an a-list star, when the

biggest names are zac efron, miley cyrus, we are living in a brave new world where it's all about the concept of the movie. films like "star trek," did a tremendous amount of box office. it's no guarantee anymore. >> earlier, i remember doing a story about people financially strapped, at least going to the theatres was a great way to get some entertainment. do you find that has dropped off? >> you know, i was a big proponent of the idea that the recession was driving box office, but now, i'm going back to the traditional view that it comes down to the movies themselves. i think it's really about the concept. if somebody loves the idea of "district 9," they'll go

regardless of the financial situation. but yes, a movie ticket is a lot cheaper than other out of the home options. but you still have to have films that are appealing that will drive folks out of their homes, into the movie theatre. we're hoping we'll see that this weekend and up to the end of the summer box office season. >> appreciate that. >> thank you. >> so, david, would you see a film this weekend and if so, what would you go to -- >> any film with that word -- >> one more time. what was that word. i know, it's fun to be bad on tv and get away with it. >> i've heard -- quentin tarantino is always pretty gruesome. up next, is there trouble ahead for nancy pelosi and the rest of the democrats in congress? >> why 2010 could be a tough year for the party in power. as we get older, our bodies become...

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in today's "making their case," a look at some news that might ruin a few vacations. >> according to charlie cook, democrats may look back at this summer as the moment they let up to 20 seats in the house slip away. polls show up to 70% of americans disapprove of the job congress is doing. democrats of course divided on health care reform and voter confidence and the president is sliding. a new poll shows 49% of americans believe the president can make the right decisions for the country. so what does it mean for 2010? here to make their case, blogger adam green and also with us, liz

nair. adam, let's start with you. it's usually true the party with the majority tends to lose seats in the next off-year election, but having said that, would you agree that having a week where the house speaker and her deputy disagree, the democrats have a huge number of problems right now? >> obviously, there will be some challenges in 2010. but i think that the real numbers so look at are the polls that show overwhelming support for the public health insurance option. poll after poll shows that americans want democrats to stand up boldly and proudly for the public option. i think that if democrats do that, they will mitigate any historical trend and keep a lot of seats they wouldn't otherwise. >> liz, do the republicans

believe that 2010 would be a referendum, in other words, the republicans can sit back, not have an alternative plan and just play off the anger voters feel? >> first of all, i don't think it's true to say that republicans don't have any alternative plan. i think that's been discussed. there are alternative republican plans that have been put out there. there are a number races, whether looking at the house or senate, where republicans are fielding very good candidates. and you know, when contrasted with certain incumbents or other democratic candidates, we have people who are going to look very good. they look like strong leaders and will appeal to the american public. >> liz, suppose a republican is running on the health care issue who says the democrats wanted to run health care even though that's not what the democrats wanted. suppose the comeback -- that

they stand with wealth protection. how would republicans respond to that? >> i think that actually where republicans, at least many republicans who have been vocal about this issue stand, is that they are in fact for choice. choice within the private insurance market and for increasing that. i think that's something that's going to be quite appealing. in contrast about support for the public option, you can take a look at your own nbc poll and see where that sits. >> it was a only poll out of six that was done that didn't describe the public option as a choice, you get a choice of private insurance or the option. so there's a lot of ways to argue the nbc poll. >> one of the things that i keep hearing progressives and defenders throwing out is actually moveon.org polling, which i don't think is an impartial source. it's like asking karl rove in

2006 did he think americans have a good opinion of george w. bush. >> on that point, never mind the polling. there is every indication that the activists, they are extremely dissatisfied if there's not public option that gets passed. i can't imagine that's the position that democrats want to be in, having a disaffected wing of their party going into 2010. >> i think you're absolutely right about that. the democrats in congress can still do the right thing and if they don't want to lose 20 seats in the house, if they don't want to lose in primaries, the thing to do is make sure the progressive base comes out on their side by standing out for a strong, public option. liz is the only one i've haefrd in a while that supports choice. they're pretty much aiming for a plumeting of health care reform. he want to take it down.

they think it's the way to beat obama, as if this is about obama at all. there's a lot of populace anger at these companies. one has three quarters of a billion dollars in stock options. a pull option wouldn't be paying these salaries, billions in pr. it would be focused on public health. if democrats campaign on that message, that will be the winning strategy in 2010. >> thank you, both. it's going to be so interesting to see what happens in 2010, but the battle over this issue will continue through the fall. thank you, both. coming up, michael moore takes on wall street. his new movie, naming names and looking for villains. plus, monkey business. how one town the using monkey birth control to get a grip on

local wildlife. >> what?

from the brink of collapse to billions in bailouts, a nationwide rage over astronomical bonuses, no matter how you slice it, it's been a rough year for wall street and main street. >> a year though that's not over. arriving just in time to rub some salt in the wounds is none other than filmmaker michael moore. check this out. >> the most feared filmmaker in america. >> can you tell me a credit default swap is? >> will reveal what happened when wall street tanked. >> stock markets crashed. >> bankruptcy. >> foreclosure. a global meltdown. >> and a government fails. >> by spending just a few million dollars to buy congress, wall street was given billions. >> the motion is adopted. >> you know who michael moore

is. >> courtney hazlett is msnbc's top culture and media columnist. >> it's all good. >> is this vintage michael moore? >> it's definitely what you expect for sure. hard questioning. he doesn't back down. that's really what he excels in doing best. some of the questions he asks, where did our money go? we have a clip from that part of the trailer as well. let's take a look. >> this is straight up capitalism. boom. >> where is our money? >> i don't know. >> the people here really aren't in charge. >> i guess you win. >> we want our money back. >> capitalism offers people the freedom to choose where they work. >> there isn't anything in here. i'm not going to be a gentleman's club hire dancer. >> we're here to get the money back for the american people. i got more bags. $10 billion probably won't fit

in here. >> no, it probably won't fit in there. we've been talking about this film for so long and saying what's he going to do? one of my early criticisms was i hope there's more to it than just making people angry again. there needs to be some sort of dialogue and solution finding. we're not seeing that in the trailers yet. i think right now that's what people will walk into movie theaters wondering about. okay. you're talking to these folks and getting into the heads of these financial people and congressmen and the like, but am i going to walk away from the movie just being really angry or am i going to learn something about what's happening or how it can be fixed? >> do you get a sense of how hollywood feels about this guy these days? he's in your face. it's really hard for a lot of people to stomach the kind of movie that he does. >> it's definitely difficult. he runs in a different circle of hollywood than most of the people i know in hollywood. i think a really interesting example is if you look back to the conventions and to films such as "polliwood"pollywood",

always careful to say, listen, i know i have a platform and i can affect change, but i don't have the issues. that's where michael moore is different. he does know the issues. he becomes an expert of whatever he's talking about whether it was health care or columbine. that's definitely his wheelhouse, this type of film. at the end of the day is hollywood afraid of michael moore? i don't think so because he's such an island really when it comes to this sort of moviemaking. >> he's got a loyal following. courtney hazlett, thanks. >> anytime. >> is this the kind of movie you would go see? do you think you would get some answers or just get more antagonistic americans? >> i always love michael moore's movies and courtney was hitting it right in terms of the issue. he does have an incredible way of being able to explain a complicated issue in a way a lot of people can understand. i find them amusing and comedic at the same time. i give it a thumbs up without

even having seen it. >> always great entertainment. >> speaking of great entertainment but also serious, coming up explosive allegations about the bush white house trying to hype the terror threat in order to win the 2004 election. did it make much of a difference? we'll talk to a former top adviser to the john kerry campaign. plus, president obama's double jeopardy. is he losing the message war on both health care and afghanistan and what can he do about it? and how sarah palin became the new queen of facebook. those stories and a whole lot more just ahead on "the big picture." my doctor told me something i never knew.

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going to continue to be out front in september and october in trying to get something done. playing politics with terror alerts. tom ridge says the bush team urged him to raise the threat level just before the 2004 election. a spokesman for donald rumsfeld calls it nonsense. who should we believe? later, an international manhunt is under way for a reality tv star who stands accused in the gruesome murder of his ex-wife. >> ryan jenkins is an animal, what he has done to jasmine is unspeakable. >> looking for answers in the death of a swimsuit model. new video of president obama getting revved up at the white house. and why you should never ride piggyback with a mascot. all that and more this hour on msnbc. >> i'm alex witt live here in new york. tamron has the day off. hi, david. >> goo h