not backing down. iran steps up its war games test firing a long-range missile capable of hitting u.s. bases in the persian gulf and israel. the obama administration wants tougher economic sanction, but will there be a diplomatic showdown when the u.s. and european allies meet with iran later this week in geneva? going for the gold. president obama is heading to copenhagen for chicago's bid to host the 2016 summer olympics. he would become the first u.s. president to directly lobby for the games. some are asking, has the decision already been made? why now? the international tug-of-war escalates over the arrest of oscar winning director roman polanski for a 1977 sex crime. he's putting up a fight and prosecutors in the states not backing down. now secretary of state hillary clinton is facing pressure to step in. >> your wife famously talked about the vast right wing conspiracy targeting you. did you look at this opposition

on the right to president obama? is it still there? >> what former president bill clinton is saying about the vast right wing conspiracy and president obama. machine gun politics. a man running to lead a state's national guard is luring voters by giving them a chance to win an ak-47 and a chance to fire off live rounds. is this smart politics or crossing the line? "the big picture" starts right now. good afternoon, everyone. i'm tamron hall live in new york. >> i'm norah o'donnell live in washington. i . david shuster has the day off. live picture l.a.x., involves a flight to new york which has been delayed indefinitely from taking off. we're told it is because a passenger got up while the plane was taxiing to the runway. a flight attendant told the passenger to sit down. that passenger said he needed to use the restroom and went in the

restroom and closed the door. after a minute according to the report, he returned to his seat. now, flight attendant then went to that restroom and found apparently what's being described as a panel removed. the panel returned to the gate where police removed the passenger. two other men thought to be traveling with that individual were also removed from the plane. passengers are back in the terminal for rescreening. other passengers on board heard apparently, according, again, to reports heard the suspect and two others removing -- speaking arabic. this is, again, the reports coming out from this early on. we're told the fbi is taking over the investigation. we're going to continue to follow the developments, but the new information right now is that the fbi is taking over the investigation. a wnbc producer apparently says the passenger in question scu y scurried on to the plane at the last minute and was one of the last people to board the plane when he sat down. he started to speak to another

passenger and they, according to the wnbc reporter, eventually switched seats and they think in all, three passengers were taken off the plane, norah. >> and i can see, tamron, too, a report in to us from knbc, of course, our affiliate out there reporting per the lapd, los angeles police department, that two middle eastern men in their 30s were taken off this ua flight 22. the lapd says the fbi is now taking over the investigation which you just mentioned. so, again, different reports coming in at this hour about the number of men involved. clearly some unusual behavior that raised the concerns of the pilot and that's why now they're turning this over to the fbi. >> that report of the wnbc producer, apparently, norah, was on the plane and saw this. he was on the plane. ned ratavik, was that reporter who saw this passenger in question scurry on to the plane at the last minute.

we're working to get tom ka still low to get more information. we're keeping an eye on the breaking news story. live picture from l.a.x., under the investigation of the fbi. another show of defiance from iran days before crucial nuclear talks with major world powers. iran fired off its most advanced missile today aimed at growing pressure. international pressure it is seeing. today's drill followed tests earlier yesterday of three short-range missiles. iran's revolutionary guard said the missiles are able to target any place that threatens the country. miss tested today can carry warheads and reaches 12,000 miles. that puts israel and u.s. bases in the middle east and parts of europe within striking distance. the strikes come after u.s. and allies disclose iran had been secretly developing an underground enrichment facility. robert gibbs says it's up to iran to decide which path it

will take to the international community. >> there has never been a stronger international consensus to address iran and its nuclear weapons program than there is right now. >> nbc news chief white house correspondent chuck todd joins us. chuck, this is obviously leading up to that meets october 1st. we're hearing a lot of talk about the u.s. having leverage it never has had before regarding sanctions. >> reporter: that's what the administration believes that they have going in with russia seemingly ready to sign on to potentially tougher economic sanctions, but the big unknown here is china and so it could be that these talks are as important for the united states and the rest of its allies here to make a case to china while they're having these talks with the iranians as it is anybody else and dealing directly with the iranians. to do what they did overnight with the testing shows you they

probably aren't ready to suddenly have some negotiations that are fruitful at all having to do with their nuclear program or they wouldn't be trying to provoke the very countries that they want to have these talks with. yes, they're going to show up, but, boy, nothing is looking like these are going to -- you're going to somehow see the iranians come in and say, oh, no, inspect away and come on in all of this. you wonder at this point if this is the u.s. making the case to the chinese they also need to come aboard with the russians if they are as on board as the united states claims the russians are. >> nbc news chief white house correspondent, chuck todd. now to the bigger picture and possibility of tougher sanctions against iran. secretary of state hillary clinton said the u.s. will work with allies to move toward sanctions if iran does not change its behavior. >> exploring how you broaden and deepen sanctions.

sanctions are already in place, as you know, but like many sanction regimes they're leaky. in the last eight months since we've been dealing with north korea on a similar set of issues we have forged an international consensus around very tough sanctions. >> senior administration officials say harsher sanctions may include a cutoff of investments to iran's oil and gas industry and restrictions on many more iranian banks. joins us now, senior fellow at the center for american progress. served as assistant secretary of defense from 1981 through 1985. thank you so much more joining us. >> nice to be with you. >> can sanctions alone cause iran to change its behavior? >> no, but they can make them pay pa higher price than they might want to. given the fragility of the regime after this very disputed election, i think time is on our side, because the iranian people are very unhappy about the

election. if they see this happening thil this will make them more unhappy. the regime, to stay in power, may decide they don't want to antagonize the international community anymore. >> you heard mahmoud ahmadinejad, iran's president in new york last week for u.n. meetings told guests at a meeting, go ahead, bring it on. he boested they would become the sanctions. it would mean iran would be more self-sufficient. bold talk? has iran been able to survive sanctions if the late 1970s? >> they have been able to survive sanctions. up until now, particularly the europeans have not been as adamant as we have been. you noticed last week when president obama spoke about their second facility, the british and french were more strident and upset about iran. i think that that may have tipped the balance and, plus, not building the missile defense in eastern europe i think gives

us leverage with the russians. >> yes. that's the key point, i think, they've got to broaden and deepen sanctions but it also comes to russia, iran's neighbor. i was strucked by secretary of state hillary clinton said on cbs, i think russia has begun to see many more indications iran is engaging in threatening behavior but russia has huge economic interest in iran. oil interests. why would russia move forward and change their stances in terms of deepening sanctions? >> i don't think russia wants to see chaos in iran. they would be afraid the regime might fall, and so i think that's -- they'll try and moderate iranian behavior, let the international atomic agency enter the second facility. keep iran from actually weaponizing. they're enriching the uranium. they can weaponize. as our own cia said, they stopped that back in 2003. i think that's where russia can have leverage with them.

>> this is a huge issue and one the administration will be tackling this week. thank you, lawrence corb as always. we want to get back to that breaking news happening in los angeles at the airplane. it involved united airlines flight 22 headed to new york. delayed indefinitely from taking off. nbc news tom ka still low joins us. one of the reports says the passenger went to the laboratory and the flight attendant on the plane noticed panels were removed in the laboratory in addition to other suspicious or questionable behavior on that flight. >> well, yeah. here's the reporting. i've talked to federal authorities. i've also talked to united airlines. here's what happened. united flight 22, l.a.x. to new york city, was supposed to leave. it was taxiing down the runway when a gentleman who was described as being of -- looked like he was middle eastern or, perhaps, arabic in appearance, he said he had to go to the

restroom. right then. had to go immediately. the flight attendant objected. he didn't care. he went right into the restroom. he was in there about a minute. when he left he sat down in a seat again. he was in row 23. the flight attendant then went in to double check the restroom. she said she found a panel that looked like it was out of place or missing. it's not at all clear why or what happened. the individual denies any wrongdoing whatsoever. however, out of an abundance of caution, the pilot turned the plane around, went back to the gate. he was taken off the plane by lapd and one or two of what are believed to be traveling companions were also taken off. we have an nbc producer who was actually on the plane and he said they all appeared to be middle eastern or speaking arabic. the question is did anything happen or was this literally a misunderstanding and somebody who had to use the restroom urgently and there was confusion of what went on in the restroom?

nonetheless, united airlines says all of those passengers have been going through a rescreening process. the lapd and fbi have been talking to the individuals taken off the plane. our producers who is standing right there says thus far they have not been arrested and are not in custody but they are being talked to in this secure area in the terminal. these individuals, according to the lapd, were eventually supposed to go from new york on to cairo. the plane from l.a.x. to new york city is delayed indefinitely. >> i know this is being investigated as you pointed out. is there anything behind the panels in the laboratory that leads to, i guess, key equipment? we know the pilots are secured in the cockpit. is there anything in that area that leads to something, just to put it frankly? >> this is a rear restroom. not the forward restroom. this is the backrestroom. i should have made that clear. the short answer is no.

however, the obvious concern is could something have been planted behind the panel? an explosive device planted or something like that? keep in mind, they would have already gone through the screens. the luggage would have been screened and the individuals would have gone through screening. our nbc producer who was on board, i talked to him. he said the individual in question seemed to be the very last one or among the very last ones to board the plane. he seemed to -- he seemed to cause some confusion or some concern among the passengers. that they took notice of this individual even before he had to go to the restroom. >> all right. nbc's tom costello. we'll keep our team up to date on this breaking news as the fbi has gotten involved in this. major developments following the arrest in switzerland of the acclaimed director roman polanski. his attorney says polanski will fight extradition to the u.s. where he is wanted for having sex with a 13-year-old girl. in 1977.

meantime, france and poland where polanski has dual citizenship urged switzerland to free the director on bail and called on secretary of state hillary clinton to grant him clemency. polanski was arrested saturday as he arrived in zurich to receive a lifetime achievement award at a film festival. for now he remains in a jail cell there. norah, coming up, can president obama bring the olympics home to chicago? a personal appeal this week, but could it, can it seal the deal for chicago? bill clinton's new take on the vast right wing conspiracy. is president obama the new target? plus, a politician holds a machine gun social. wants to raise money and even raffled off an ak-47. we've got his explanation on tape and we want to know, is it crossing the line? we know why we're here.

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back with a major development regarding chicago's hopes of landing the 2016 olympics. >> president obama will travel to denmark to make a final pitch on friday to the international olympic committee. it will announce its decision on a host city. chicago faces, of course, tough competition. rio de janeiro, madrid, tokyo on the list. mr. obama would be the first u.s. president to lobby in person, norah, before the international olympic committee. he's bringing a powerful entourage with him, including, of course, the first lady, cabinet secretary, and senior advisers, and, yeah, somebody named oprah winfrey. joining us now, msnbc contributor jim warren. thanks for joining us. okay. so having the president there, many are saying that means chicago has gotten the olympics

for 2016. that there is no way the president would go over and be embarrassed by not securing it. that's what the rumors are. >> first of all, you guys are underestimating the olympic potency of ray lahood, the transportation security. >> that's one of the big topics in chicago. can chicago's transportation system handle that? with, you know, with that said -- >> offer to build a few new viaducts and bridges for some of those olympic voters. there's no way that they know any sort of fix is in if he shows up. there's a certain element of risk here. norah and tamron, this is unusual. there's been no focus group, no polling. you don't know how they're going to go. you don't know exactly what all the cleeks are. 106 folks, saints and sinners, former despots, form eer athlet, trust fund aristocrats and the history of the vote is often

there are huge prizes. right now, rio de janeiro is the clear front-runner and chicago has come from last place because of a very low and not necessarily positive international image to be now a very, very strong second and the hope is that a guy who really far more than oprah, far more than michael jordan and far more than al capone really represents the new chicago, barack obama can really help if, if, in fact, it's really close. >> so, you know, what would the president say? i know there was a letter published, i think it was september 23rd, a part of the case for bringing it to chicago. once he's there, how does the president then handle it? i know when tony blair, the prime minister, came in in 2005 to lobby london won it. how does he seal the deal, president obama? >> well, again, it's going to be tough sealing the deal. i think he has to underscore the many, many, many benefits, glories of chicago. talking to olympic insiders. it is quite clear that though

you guys and i may know chicago very well, even for a fairly sophisticated international group like this, they do not know chicago very well. they did not know it. i think he has to underscore what a great place this is, what a terrific venue it would be. the plan may have is pretty good. relevantly, perhaps more relevantly the plan would fit in with on going development. would improve a lot of lousy neighborshoods at this point. would expand a magnificent lakefront area. obama has to underscore that. hey, i love chicago. it would be a great place. i represent the new chicago. give us your vote. >> jim, norah o'donnell here. i mean, president obama, michelle obama, opera winfrey, of course, ray lahood as you mentioned. that's a lot of names out there. tony blair did that in 2005, helped london win the 2012 games. what's to say this might help push chicago over the edge? >> i think as relevant, norah,

as mentioning what you just did, tony blair, putin, putin came in out of nowhere, spoke apparently near flawless english, got the winter olympics for a town i don't think anybody knew existed. is there is a real po tonesy. the fact is everybody else is bringing their -- the king and queen of spain is coming, emperor of japan may show up with the prime minister. all along although the white house was says it's only to be michelle, there's all this health care legislation he has to do, you have to fight fire with fire if there is a downside if, in fact, chicago does lose. chicago is probably in second place. i think there was no alternative for obama to try to seal the deal as important as oprah and ray lahood may be. >> i think you're saying chicago is in second place so your heart is not broken.

i think you're trying to keep it cool and calm. chicago has to be in first place here. it's time. it's time to have the olympics back in the united states. forget chicago. back to have the olympics back in the united states. >> i agree. >> well, they've been here. salt lake city. remember that. they've never been in south america. come on, you guys have been to rio, not a bad place to party. come on. >> i don't think norah and i are the rio kind of girls. we'll see your pictures next time from rio. norah -- i'm sure they're interesting pictures. a lot of people on the internet really believe this thing is done, there's no way the president would be going over and using that capital. he has the health care debate and afghanistan, other things brewing around that have nothing to do with the olympics. >> i think we should take the show on the road and report from copenhagen thursday. >> i think i could get some coins together around here. >> oprah, michelle obama, the president, king and queen of spain, everybody's going to be

here. >> we fit right in. dramatic video. we have this huge drug bust. actually happened on the high seas. crazy video. it's one of your need to know headlines. it's a good one. later in the show, what does it feel like to drop an "f" balk on live tv? it's your very first appearance on "saturday night live." hello, mom. i've made it to the big time.

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welcome back. we want to update you on breaking news out of l.a.x., los angeles international airport. united flight number 22. the l.a.x. official spokesperson is saying the passenger did not comply with the flight crew's instructions to return to the seat. the plane was return the to the gate. they're saying, the fbi believes

there's no identifiable threat to the plane or passengers. the passenger in question is right now being interviewed in connection with this incident and is cooperated. they're going to rescreen all of the luggage and conduct what is called a precautionary search of the aircraft. also the statement from l.a.x. is no criminal charges are anticipated and the plane will department to new york as soon as the searches and screening process is concluded. again, a spokesperson from l.a.x. saying they do not see a threat as a result of suspicious behavior by a passenger. the passenger apparently did not comply with the flight crews' instructions to return to his seat. we'll continue to watch this breaking news. we'll be right back with more politics. now that's progressive.

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points. the state of ohio's taken the lead role in a major security lawsuit against bank of america which alleges the bank conceal the billions of dollars in losses and bonuses paid during its merger with merrill lynch. it is one of the largest securities lawsuits in history. xerox plans to buy affiliated computer services in a cash and stock deal worth $6.4 billion. the stock has been falling. the deal would boost the size of xerox to service its business and move it further away from its roots as a computer company. johnson & johnson bought an 18% stake worth $440 million. the companies hope to development a universal plu vaccine. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to msnbc. the great story here for anybody willing to find it and write about it and explain it is this vast right wing conspiracy

that has been conspireing against my husband since the day he announced for president. >> remember that? that was former first lady hillary clinton at the height of the monica lewinsky scandal january 1988. fast forward more than 11 years later. in a summer of angry town hall meetings and washington protests, the former president told nbc's david gregory the conspiracy may not be as vast but it's just as mean. >> your wife famously talked about the vast right wing conspiracy targeting you. did you look at this opposition on the right to president obama. is it still there? >> oh, you bet. sure it is. it's not as strong as it was because america has changed demographically. >> the bigger picture, does the president have a point? how does it differ from the blistering attacks from the left during the eight years of president george w. bush? jonathan capehart, msnbc

contributor and "washington post" writer. the comments made by former president clinton not getting the heat and response as the carter comment about some of the people not being ready for a black president. nonetheless, it's one of those hmm moments. does he have a point, though? >> yes, he has a point. hasn't had the same resonance of the carter comments because it doesn't involve race. it involves sheer unadultrated politics. the vast right wing conspiracy line was a classic the moment then-first lady hillary clinton said it. it was then sort of the rallying phrase of the liberals, or i should say the left and the democratic party to sort of explain just why is it that there's so much opposition, then against then-president clinton, now 11 years against president obama? >> do you think he's talking about the berthers or the people who have the pictures of president obama with the hitler mustache? does that fall under the

umbrella of this conspiracy? >> the word conspiracy, that's one of those flash words. i think what he's talking about is sort of a combination of the right wing conservative republicans within the republican party, the politicians, plus you have, say, right wing outlets or right leaning outlets that give them voice plus publications and you put that all together and you have sort of the noise that we went through as an example with the town hall meetings. so you take the berthers, take the truthers, take all these folks, put them together and here's what you have is what's being called even still a right wing conspiracy. >> jonathan, it's norah o'donnell here. as you recall, of course, with the clintons it was the conservative with a lot of money who began to fund a lot of these investigations and dig up a lot of this dirt on bill clinton. there hasn't been, at least to

my knowledge, i can't think of any single dark lord out there that's funding all this stuff against obama, but yet there is a lot of -- there are, i should say, a lot of people out there that really don't like obama and don't believe he's legitimate as a president. i mean, they don't believe he was even born in the united states. >> right. that's a good point you raise, norah, the fact we don't see deep-pocketed right wing individual who's funding the attacks and the opposition to president obama, but we do see standing right up there are sort of the rush limbaughs and the becks of the country standing in opposition to the president and also another thing you bring up, norah, the fact that a lot of people don't believe that the president was even born here. there's a poll that dylan ratigan cited last week, you put together the people who don't believe obama was born in the country plus the people who say they don't know, that adds up to 41%. >> unbelievable.

>> despite the estimates. 41%. >> i don't imagine the difference, i think, is that with this president, obama, i don't see him sort of either lashing out or sort of blaming vast right wing conspiracy. that's not really his style, is it? >> no, no. it's not. in fact, he doesn't want to have that conversation. this is a president who won't discuss race, who won't discuss anything that takes his eye and administration's eye off the ball of achieving whatever goal it has, whether it's winning the election or getting health care bill passed. if the conversation distracts from achieving those goals he's not dealing with it. >> jonathan, thank you very much. >> thanks, norah. >> it's interesting. i think you hit it on the head, norah. it's how the obama administration is reacting to it if it still exists, this vast right wing experience. they're handling it in a different way than the clintons seemed to especially in the interview from the former first

lady. >> the clintons believe to this day people were out to get them and bring them down and it really colored so much of their administration. even do this day. you don't see -- it may be true there is such a vast right wing conspiracy, whatever you want to call it, i'm not going to get into that. this administration doesn't seem sort of as engaged with it. they're going to concentrate their energy on other things. >> right. >> all right. tamron, other news you may need to know about on this monday. so far we've learned three teenagers have been charged with beating a chicago high school student to death in an attack that's actually caught on tape. now, we want to warn you this video recorded by a cell phone is very graphic. police say the 16-year-old honor student was caught in the middle of the fight between two rival gangs outside a community center as he walked home last thursday. the video shows several people stomping and hitting the victim with a board. police were using the video

obtained by wfld tv in chicago to help identify the attackers. death toll has risen to 140 people in the philippines. massive mud slides this weekend. tens of thousands of people are homeless. awful video. >> yeah. a wild scene in southwestern turkey after a van stacked with beehives crashed into a truck today killing one person. a huge swarm of bees attacked five of the injured crash victims and rescuers. officials say about 20 people including police officers and medics were then taken to the hospital. pretty unbelievable, huh? british warship opened fire, after seizing cargo of more than five tons of cocaine. the crew was also arrested. the high seas drama happened off the coast of south america last

week. there it is. the cocaine, it was the largest drug bust in royal naval history with the cocaine worth nearly $400 million u.s. up next, making our case on next year's crucial midterm elections. could we see a republican revolution like we saw in 1994? welcome to progressive. how may i help you? i'm looking for a deal on car insurance. i think i might have a coupon in here. there's an easier way. we've got the "name your price" option. you do?

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in today's making your case, independents played a key role in the election of president obama. could they turn into an asset for republicans over the next year? >> at least six days have gubernatorial elections coming up. where independent candidates could help siphon enough votes to put the gop back into the governor's mansion. ask about the republicans on "meet the press," former president bill clinton said democrats should not be worry the about a repeat of 1994. when the gop dominated the midterm vote. >> there's no way they can make

it that bad for several reasons. number one, the country is more diverse and more interested in positive action. number two, they've seen this movie before because they had eight years under president bush when the republicans had the whole government and they know the results were bad. number three, the democrats haven't taken on the gun lobby like i did and they took 15 of our members out. >> with governorships up for grabs in maine, new jersey, massachusetts, vermont and rhode island can republicans lead on independents to put them over the top? here to make their case, editor for thinkprogress.org. and matt with townhall.com. can the pain the democrats are seeing when it comes to the debate on health care be the gain for republicans? >> absolutely. >> how so? >> i think in virginia, in like two months, we're going to see mcdonald be -- that's going to

be the first thing that happens. a rasmussen poll that came out yesterday shows 66% of americans right now are upset with president obama's policies. president clinton talked about this vast right wing conspiracy. i would argue it's a vast american issue now when two-thirds of voters say they're not happy with the direction of the country. >> amanda, let me get you in on that. we've seen interesting polling with the president when it comes to independents. this article on politico talked about how people are turned off by the tone between democrats and republicans and may find comfort in being independent voices. >> well, polls do show that. they show that even more so voters are unhappy with republicans. this necessarily doesn't mean this satisfaction won't work toward republicans. i mean, a big difference between now and 1994, in 1994 health care failed. it hasn't failed yet. democrats and obama have learned from 1994 and say we're not

going to let it fail. the question isn't, are we going to be health care? it's going to be, what is this plan going to look like? voters want to see something happen. >> matt,@interesting the point amanda makes. people want to see something happen. the president said the people have seen the movie before. some people believe the republicans are standing in the way and being the quote/unquote party of no so they can have a sequel to this movie, and they are, in fact, not being productive members of congress trying to put health care and other issues in front rather than their own political aspirations. >> you might be right politically. the american public has not shown that they punished, not since harry truman, that they punished political parties for being objectionists. >> the polling we're seeing now is not showing the gop is benefiting. when you see the polling and you're right, you see a down tick when it comes to members of congress who are democrats. that does not transfer over to republican popularity.

we're not seeing that. >> look, i think that the president's party is typically punished in off-year elections. there was an anomaly in 2002. george w. bush kept a majority in the house and the senate i think because of 9/11. traditionally speaking it not unheard of that president obama would have a very bad year. i think bill clinton is correct when he says it won't be as bad as '94. i don't think they're going to lose the senate. i think democrats will do quite well and maintain strong majorities in the senate. i think there's a good chance republicans take back the house of representatives which would mean picking up 30 or maybe even 40 seats in the house. so it could be a strong republican year and that, frankly, would be normal if we look at trends in off-year midterm elections. that's pretty much par for the course. i also think bill clinton inadvertently made another point when he talked about we've seen this movie before. he talked about how there were eight years of george bush having the presidency and the republicans having the house and

senate. americans like divided government. right now democrats have the presidency just like bush did and the senate and the house. i think we're probably going to see republicans change that by winning the house. >> amanda, it's norah o'donnell here. isn't it true, too, democrats have a lot more gubernatorial seats to defend than republicans? i mean, 21 of their 28 seats where democrats are governors, they have to defend them in the next election. with the large number of independents running they can siphon off a lot of votes. >> democrats have a large number to defend against. if you look at a lot of independents now, a lot of people are running as independents. there really are more conservatives. voters will realize they're choosing between a democrat, a republican and basically another republican. matt mentioned virginia. bob mcdonald was up in the polls by quite a bit. voters start ted taking a different look at him. positions came out on his views on women.

the margin has closed quite a bit and voters are says, maybe we'll go with a democrat. >> matt, you want to respond to that? >> bob mcdonald was six points down when he won the nomination. i think he's right now about four points up and there's only over, like, a month to go. i think bob mcdonald will win in virginia and i think there's a good chance chris christy wins in new jersey. new jersey is a tough state to handicap because anything can happen with the political system up there. if you look at the history of virginia, whoever wins the presidency the next year, the other party almost always wins. i'm not saying there's a big swing to the right or left. historically speaking it's a republican year. >> matt and amanda, thank you very much. matt made a great point about the new jersey race. that's an interesting one. you see the campaigning in that has gotten really ugly very fast. it's representative in what's at stake here. >> for us in virginia, watching that race. how that's going to turn out between these two candidates.

if the republicans win that race they're going to also put the big banner on it that this is the backlash against president obama. an interesting story up next. about a politician raffling off an ak-47 that was called a machine gun social. i've heard of an ice cream social, never a machine gun social. >> he's thinking it up. >> yeah. today's crossing the line, right? yep. later in our show, we have our web day. new yorkers trying to hail a cab, and getting a high five instead? come on. you're watching the "big picture" on msnbc. [ thunder rumbles ] what is the sign of a good decision? in the world of personal finance,

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in today's "crossing the line" if you think ice cream or cake socials are just too boring, why not just whip out your ak-47 and make it a real party, yes, as in semi-automatic

weapon. a republican is making news after holding a machine gun social at his first fund-raiser. dean allen is running foragetant general, and here is what he explained to us last hour here on msnbc. >> the idea may seem unusual, but the thought behind it is very usual and important. we want to show solidarity with the second amendment of the constitution, the most important right people have is the right to bear arms. >> so for 25 bucks, donors got barbecue and a shot to fire the machine gun of their choice. and then came the big give-away. an ak-47 worth $700, pretty pricey. allen says he wants the job so he can gather more support for the south carolina national guard. the winner of the ak-47 has to pass an fbi background check, show i.d., and even fill out federal paperwork. allen is quoted saying, "i like to tell people i'm not the country club conservative, i'm the machine gun one." so he's got another one coming up in a couple weeks, because

the first machine gun social was such a hit! crossing the line, or is this one of those regional debates? well, you let us know what you think. twitter.msnbc.com. you tell me if this is crossing the line or not. >> i have a feeling that one is going to get a lot of reaction, tamron. almost 4:00, and we're just getting started. showdown with iran. firing missiles days before talks with the u.s. about their nuclear program. also, hospitals so overwhelmed by swine flu, they're setting up tents to treat patients. is the u.s. really ready for this flu season? and much more on that security scare at lax. two men removed from a plane bound for new york. we're going for the very latest details. this is "the big picture" right here on msnbc. music plays

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