amnesty to immigrants and named pro-choice sandra day o'connor to the supreme court. what happens when the rhetoric smacks into reality? the tea partiers begin their convention in nashville. catch the name of one of their seminars. "correlation between the current administration and marxist dictators of latin america." jon stewart and bill o'reilly go at each other. but we begin with the republicans and whether they can really win the house of representatives and the senate. chuck todd is nbc's political director and chief white house correspondent, and jonathan martin is the political writer for politico. we're going to assume the republicans are in good enough shape to hold on to the seats they have. let's talk about we're playing a game of poker here. let's imagine the republicans get not too great a hand. suppose they get a pair of --

well, an easy pair of republicans they could pick up. there's delaware there. and north dakota. that's beau biden, decided not to run, the vice president's son, he's not running. castle looks strong. he's a republican. congressman mike castle and governor john hoeven look to be pretty easy winners. chuck, is that a pretty much a gimme for them? >> it is. i would say delaware, democrats did find a good candidate, a better candidate than they found against hoeven in north dakota. and delaware is still delaware, in that it is a lean blue state. castle has to run a very moderate, sort of in the middle campaign. he's perfectly suited for it. he should be able to do it. but, you know, delaware is, of the two, you would say democrats have at least a shot at it. >> a former governor in delaware and current governor in north dakota. looks like a pretty good bet. >> very popular governor in north dakota. the longest serving governor in

america. he's not going to be facing the only credible democrat who could have run against him, pomroy. >> a good bet, they should be able to move those 41 teems to 43 seats. here's a possible, we're calling it a full house. suppose they knock off three vulnerable democrats. pick up biden's seat there. pick up dorgen's seat in north dakota. and they beat the senator in colorado. and harry reid gets beaten. that seems to be a reasonable probability -- let's put it that way, that is fairly plausible they win those five, right? >> it is. i would, right now, feel the least comfortable about saying that, about colorado, in that full house. i think the republican field is not that strong. and the dynamics in colorado aren't as anti-democratic, for instance, as they are right now in arkansas, and then, of course, harry reid's got his own

set of problems in nevada. colorado is the one that is a speed bump to that full house. >> but chris, don't forget also, the field in nevada is not that strongly against reid. >> but he's losing to all them. >> his numbers are terrible as we all know. he would lose right now to pretty much anybody out there, including liberace. but the problem is -- >> i think you're pushing it. nice try. i like liberace. >> good chris matthews reference, though, right, chris? >> this was a state that was never very fond of president obama. she's going to have a really tough time running as a democrat this cycle. >> maybe go up to 45 to 46 in a reasonably plausible outlook. >> it's plausible, that's right. >> let's take a look at the tsunami possibilities. if republicans could get the full house easy, then they might also draw a royal flush. this would be tsunami here. look at these five extra ones

they might pick up. i can see a couple of these as plausible. illinois, the republican primary won there the other night pretty much against the field. arlen specter is very weak right now. down from pat toomey the republican. then indiana the former senator is now the nominee of the republican party in indiana. he's out there in that race. and bloomenthal, the popular attorney general up at 70%. and barbara boxer always seems to pull it out in california. what's your thought there, chuck? they could win maybe three of them. i don't know about five. >> that's the problem here. this is where you get stuck trying to find the ten for the republicans. the fact, connecticut and california, i don't think are plausible yet. particularly connecticut anymore. the other wild card there is, with pennsylvania, is arlen specter the most electable democrat? you've still got that primary to sort out. the indiana thing is a bit of a reach.

the real issue here for the republicans is, they can't be counting on connecticut and california to round out their ten. they need to find wisconsin,o washington, and they need to bring in more -- they have to put more players in the field. they haven't done it yet. but the fact is, they're a heck of a lot better shape today, closer to getting there, than they were three months ago. >> and chris, there are so few incumbent republicans who are in danger. vitter and burr -- >> all the problems with prostitutes, he's probably going to get reelected. >> southern states, though. a great cycle for the gops in the south. >> we're looking at real possibilities for the republicans to pick up delaware, north dakota, arkansas, maybe nevada, maybe illinois, maybe pennsylvania. is that the way you look at it? >> well, right, this is in this tsunami hypothetical, yeah. >> the only other thing peck ter could do it in pennsylvania. he tends to get something in the end on his opponent.

he will get toomey on something. >> but i'm not convinced -- i'm not convinced he gets the nomination. >> neither am i. >> sestak has a lot of money. i think specter's got a long way to go before we can start talking about the general. >> one more point, chuck's point is exactly right. republicans need to find more seats to put in the place that did not rely on california and connecticut. two names for you, washington state ken del -- >> we might see history made her, we might see if the house does go. if the house does go, you think it's more likely we'll see history, first time the house goes one way but the senate doesn't go with it? >> i think it's easier to see the house go with it than the senate. >> the senate holds, the house may go? >> i guess my feeling is, no. there's a reason why history is -- there's a reason why we've seen this every single time. and the fact is, they are

looking for candidates in wisconsin. i think russ feingold better be careful. patty murphy in washington state ought to be careful. that said, there are speed bumps here, too. i think the open seat in missouri is a real problem for republicans, because they nominated somebody who is not very anti-washington in roy blunt. and they've got this louisiana deal. i don't think, you know, the fact is, let's see what happens when david vitter has to deal with a campaign for the very first time, defending his moral values. >> and lastly, chris, we ought to mention new hampshire, too, that's the judd gregg seat. that's a pretty big field on the gop side. the democrats already house member paul hose, that's trending toward democrats in recent years. >> you know what's great about politics, inevitably even in a tsunami year, somebody wins going the other direction whether it's biden back in '72, but also, the unbeatable guy, the unbeatable woman who can't imagine ever losing an election also goes down in a tsunami. that happens, too.

>> remember 1980. remember the names? the biggest names of the democratic history in the united states senate. >> mcgovern. >> they were giant names. >> and culver. >> you're absolutely right, chris. kentucky's in play. we didn't even mention that. florida's in play, we didn't mention that. we may have 20 senate races in single digits, or flipping on election night. i'll be honest, i'm pretty giddy about that. that's a lot of fun. >> a lot of tea party action there. >> there is. >> cuban-american guy down in florida. charlie crist making a bit of a comeback, out there fighting. he's saying he is a reagan guy. what do you think? >> look, i think the fact is, there are seven more months in this primary. if you're the rubio people, you say, i hope we haven't peaked too soon. what goes up, must come down. the fact is, though, how does crist, it does seem like nothing

sticks to rubio. you can see how crist fixes himself, but can he take down rubio with it. but there's a lot of mythology surrounding rurio and a lot of national republicans who are hoping rubio wins because they want a non-white face in their party in a prominent position. >> crist has a lot of money in the bank. that primary is not until august. here's the problem for crist, though. a closed primary. you have to be a registered voter in that primary. in the dead of summer in florida. >> looks like the senate could go republican after all. but it's going to be a long run for them if they do it. a lot of things have to happen. it has to be worse than it is now for the democrats. >> look, call me up when they find somebody against feingold and patty murray. then we can really have this conversation. i think we're not there yet. >> thompson. >> walt disney once taught me, it's what you to with what you got that counts. chuck and martin. what we're getting rid of

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welcome back to "hardball." just a minute ago we saw the

swearing in of scott brown up at the u.s. senate building. there it is right now. there's paul kirk, the appointed member behind him, leaving office at this moment. of course, john kery. john kerry just grabbed the senate desk of ted kennedy. and i believe before that daniel webster's. now you see the swearing-in ceremony. democracy continues in america. welcome back to "hardball." president obama pledged congress to repeal the "don't ask, don't tell" policy. the chairman of the joint chiefs apparently goes along with that. michael mullen supports allowing gay service people to serve openly in the military. how easy will it be to eliminate the current rule. what would it mean for the military. let's turn to two real soldiers to iraq war veterans. i'll call you by both your names so we don't get confused.

john solts, you, sir, give me a real-life example of what it's like to serve with gay service men and women and how it works. what's it like and how does it work effectively? >> the way it works right now is, you come home from the war, and like i was, i was on vacation with a couple of my friends. we were traveling around. and they said, by the way, you know that other officer that was with us, he was gay. i said really? i had no idea. it was completely irrelevant on the battlefield, trying to figure out your mission. and, you know, i was just shocked on tuesday when i listened to mullen live when he said in the room, i've served with gays since 1968. everybody knows the gays are there. when you serve with them, you don't think twice about it and didn't even know. obviously they -- >> my dad said the same thing about the navy in world war ii. >> john and i were in the same unit. there was a soldier, one of my soldiers who, when things got really hairy and there was a fire fight outside our gates, we knew he was gay.

and he jumped in a tactical vehicle, drove outside the gate, hooked it up to a burning humvee, dragged it back in. that's a guy you want in the foxhole with you. >> we're talking about combat, real in it -- >> really in it. we were in the most volatile sector of baghdad. >> michael mullen supported repealing "don't ask, don't t l tell" earlier this week. >> it is my personal belief that allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly would be the right thing to do. no matter how i look at this issue, i could not escape being troubled by the fact that we have in place a policy which forces young men and women to lie about who they are in order to defend their fellow citizens. for me, personally, it comes down to integrity. theirs is individuals, and ours as an institution. >> john, i was taken by it when i read the remarks later and heard him actually say

personally. not there because the chain of command, not because the commander in chief, barack obama, the president, because he personally, he put that word in, it meant something to me. here's a man of honor. your thoughts about the impact of admiral mullen of chairman, joint chiefs. >> i've been sitting in that room and it was the greatest surprise i ever had in politics. i never expected him to say that. i was absolutely shocked, pleasantly, that he did. i think that means a lot. after that, there was an exchange with senator sessions who said, well, i think this is command influence, which is sort of a dirty word under the uniform of military justice. admiral mullen shot back and said, this is about leadership. and he talked about it being generational. how younger veterans today feel probably differently than older veterans. to say it personally, with no politics involved, you think it's a real credit we have a chairman who's going to give his honest opinion to congress no matter who's the president -- he served for both republican and

democrat. it was humbling, and i was honored to be in the room. >> i think what he hit on strongly was the values, integrity. you wear your values on your dog tags. it's an important part of what you do. >> here's john mccain. i respect john mccain. certainly his service. here he is talking about "don't ask, don't tell" with another view. >> i understand the opposition to it. and i've had these debates and discussions. but the day that the leadership of the military comes to me and says, senator, we ought to change the policy, then i think we ought to consider seriously changing it. because those leaders in the military are the ones we give the responsibility to. >> that was him a while ago, a couple years ago with me. here he is now. here he is now. >> this would be a substantial and controversial change to a policy that has been successful for two decades. it would also present yet another challenge to our military at a time of already

tremendous stress and strain. at this moment, immense hardship for our armed services, we should not be seeking to overturn the "don't ask, don't tell" policy. >> jon solts, what do you make of that? it seems like his policy has chang changed. >> john mccain is wrong -- >> he's fighting with himself. a few years ago he was open from what he's hearing from the military. now he decided this isn't the right thing to do now. >> let's talk about why it is the right thing to do. when the army wasn't meeting the recruiting roles, they were letting in criminals. this convicted felon murdered a family, and then two u.s. soldiers, and killed as a retraction to that -- or rebuttal. you tell me what's worth unit cohesion. let felons into the military to fill the quota. it makes absolutely no sense.

at a time when the military's overextended and guys are doing two, three, four tours, and meshed together, you're going to say this is not the right time? it's ridiculous. >> let me ask you. i'll take the other views here. let's try this other argument. is the "don't ask, don't tell" policy basically used not to embarrass people in terms of orientation, but it's one more prod toward some sort of disciplinary measure, if you can't admit you're gay, you're putting one extra prod in the discipline order? >> it was initially put in place as a stepping stone. >> was it? >> i believe so. and you think we're at a time now we can move beyond. i think senator mccain is wrong. there's no better time to move on when we are at war. >> if you were the chairman of the joint chiefs and told by the commander in chief, go for it, put this into effect over the next year, what changes would you do in the military code of

discipline? i wasn't in the military, i was in the peace corps. i assumed we had gay people in the peace corps. didn't operate in as intimate an environment as the military. but let me ask you this. is there anything you have to do to change the way the disciplinary works once you have gay soldiers in the same barracks, close quarters? is there anything you have to do differently than you have to do now? >> absolutely not. in fact, the easiest thing to do here is to tell the military, let gays serve openly. the hardest thing to to is let congress repeal the law. what our command structure says, goes. so our troops are going to listen to the commanders. we have the strictest guidelines in what we call heterosexual relationships. an officer cannot be involved with a noncommissioned officer. these strict guidelines -- >> so they would apply to gay relationships as well?

>> absolutely. >> you were in, i wasn't. thank you. please come back again. i'm sure we'll talk about this again. we'll hear the other side, too, as this debate continues. the country overwhelmingly in principle supports open service. i think this issue is getting close to resolution. jon stewart takes on bill o'reilly. and this is pure fun. one of the strangest campaign commercials i've ever seen. stick around for the "sideshow." you're watching "hardball" on msnbc. [ male announcer ] when it comes to reaching your big milestones, and all your little mile-pebbles ameriprise financial can help. we have over ten-thousand advisors ready to listen to your dreams and help you plan for them.

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become to "hardball." time for the "sideshow." jon stewart went on bill o'reilly last night and got on a good argument about the fair and balanced claim they make over

there. take a listen. >> the only thing people know is an opinion -- you don't think they know that? >> certainly not clearly labeled. you're part of the fair and balanced part. >> you don't think people know the o'reilly factor isn't -- that's like someone saying they watch your show and doesn't know it's a comedy show. >> this is like being the thinnest kid at fat camp. let's get that straight. here's what fox has done. through their cyclonic perpetual machine. they've taken reasonable concerns about this president and this economy, and turned it into a full-fledged panic attack about the next coming of chairman mao. >> wow. jon stewart is a smart guy, funny guy. he's dead right about what's going on over at fox, where they yell fire every night in the movie theater. the next video, comes

courtesy of carly fiorina running for senate out in california. unveiling an attack ad against tom campbell. she makes him out to be a demon sheep. you've got to see it to believe it. >> tom campbell, see what he tells us. or is he what he's become over the years. an fcino? fiscal conservative in name only? a wolf in sheep's clothing. a man who literally helped put the state of california on the path to bankruptcy and higher taxes. fiscal conservative? or just another same old tale of tax and spend? authored by a career politician who helped guide us into this fiscal mess in the first place. >> that's a pretty nasty ad this early. the republican primary is not until june. now for the number. over in england, members of parliament got wacked last year

for charging the government with highly questionable expense accounts. they were using taxpayer money for things like mortgage payments, horse manure, adult movies. the auditor filed a report on the scandal and found quite a few current and former lawmakers were at fault and have to pay the government back. how many in all? 392 members of parliament, i figure that includes over half the house in commons. singled out for questionable expenses. tonight's "big bad number. ". republicans talk a lot about ronald reagan, but would they accept him today? would reagan himself be reaganesque? ♪

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i'm julia boorstin with your

cnbc market wrap. the dow jones industrial average plunging more than 268 points, briefly dipping below 10,000 for the first time since november. the s&p 500 falling 34 points. the nasdaq at 65.5 points. global market kicking off a spiral about debts in portugal, spain and greece. calling for painful measures to get budget shortfalls back under control. the u.s. jobs market rattling investors. jobless claims rising last week. they expected a drop around 10,000. disappointing earnings from mastercard making things worse. profits were up last quarter, but not as much as analysts expecting. but macy's one of the few bright spots adding more than 2% on strong sals numbers, and improving outlook. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball."

if i'm a rhino, so is ronald reagan. i mean, i'm a less taxing, less spending, more freedom kind of guy. i take a pragmatic, common-sense approach to government. if that's not what people want, they'll let me know. >> welcome back to "hardball." that was charlie crist, fighting out in florida. he's getting hammered by the tea party crowd down in florida. hard right republicans trying to get a candidate purity test. they failed. but would even ronald reagan have passed that test. pat buchanan worked for president reagan. does charlie crist have a point that republicans are submitting themselves to a test that even mr. reagan wouldn't have passed?

in regard to amnesty for immigrants into this country, with regard to taxes raised occasionally, with regard to negotiations with the enemy? >> oh, absolutely. i think ronald reagan, if he were a republican politician in 2010, he might very well have a tea party challenger. it's clear when reagan began his career was a dark figure who played on a lot of racial concerns in california in 1966. but by the time he ran for president, he was a sunny guy, a compromiser, worked with euro boss tip o'neill to save social security. raised taxes to pay for medicare. and also did something interesting, which is created reagan democrats. some of them were in my family. i don't see tea party democrats. the tea party movement and people like rubio are trying to narrow the base, not expand it. i think ronald reagan would have a hard time with this part of his party right now. >> there you are. you were in that room, weren't you, when --

>> many times. but look, i think it's false to say ronald reagan played on racial fears, riots, disorders in the mid-'60s. but let me tell you why ronald reagan, charlie crist has got a problem. ronald reagan gave that great speech. he was a goldwater right. a lion in our defeat in those years. he won a victory in california. stood up against the demonstrators, fought for the panama canal, came out and debated bobby kennedy on television. he challenged gerald r. ford. denounced detente. all of these things he did to make himself a leader of a movement at the same time he is an experienced, practical governor of california who raised taxes in kaf. and he raised them three times as president. but however, he cut the top rates from 70 to 28%. and he stood up to the soviets, and he won the cold war. what reagan has going for him, chris, is, he was an astounding success, the most successful i think we've ever had. >> here's another policy

position from the failed rnc resolution. we support legal immigration by opposing amnesty. ronald reagan did sign some back in the '80s which was supposed to solve the problem by allowing for legalization, et cetera. but it didn't -- >> i was in the white house. >> it didn't really get into effect very well. >> it was a complex bill, that simpson could stay but mizoli's got to go back. we signed that bill -- >> what does that mean? >> a funny line by mark russell. we signed that bill not realizing how many would be amnestied and believe they would stop illegal immigration, that we had solved the problem. the truth was, we had not solved the problem. and by 1991, this was apparent in california when i ran. against george bush. and it's been an enormous problem, what, you've got 20 million or 12 million. nobody knows how many illegals in the country there are. that's why it's an enormous problem. they're taking thousands --

rather 7 million illegals employed. those are jobs, working class americans, white, hispanic and black, get as soon as the unemployment -- as soon as the illegals are sent back. >> let's ask you about ronald reagan. let's go to joan on this question. the question is whether reaganism is the standard by which current policy in the republican party is being set. that's the question. ronald reagan did on occasion raise taxes to justify the fiscal realities. >> right. >> he did try to do something with amnesty with regard to -- it didn't work out. it wasn't enforced properly. he did -- >> but he didn't use the kind of rhetoric that -- >> go ahead, joan. >> he didn't use the kind of rhetoric that has become common about immigration either. i'm not saying ronald reagan wasn't a conservative. not saying that i agreed with him. the point that pat made that, oh, we should be so happy that he cut taxes on the wealthiest americans, we are still living with the problems of that. but he did, once he became president, he did take an approach to compromise and

reached out to the other side. you know, poor charlie crist is being hammered for hugging, for hugging barack obama. i just found a great picture of reagan with your boss, tip o'neill, they're sharing a belly laugh. they clearly liked each other and got along. those days are gone. the tea party factor and hard right factor is making sure there will be no accommodation with democrats. >> there's a caricature of ronald reagan's tax bill. he wanted 30% across the board for all taxpayers, the same cut in rates, and a number of folks who were working poor, were dropped from the rolls. you cannot call that just for the rich tax cut. sure, he cut taxes from 70% to 20% and the economy boomed for 20 years. we created 40 million jobs. >> reagan gets the credit for the clinton boom, all right. >> frankly, running a small

conservative economic policy. i'll give him credit. >> one of the sad -- but one of the sad -- >> it kept the economy going. and so did volcker. >> but ronald reagan raised the payroll taxes. which really hurt -- >> but joan, they're for social security. they make the program solvent. >> there were other ways to do it. he was a person who accommodated reality in a way that the tea party folks don't. he was a person that was to the detriment of my party, expanded his party. he was a big tent republican. we have tiny tent republicans. they want the party to fit into a tea bag, pat. >> let me answer your point about social security. they came in with the recommendation, and raised taxes. he did not like it. what they were doing. but had said, okay. if this is the only way to save social security, we've got to do it. you don't see anything like that today in solving social security and medicare. >> first of all, there are

different ideas to solve social security and medicare, and they're not necessarily the crisis that they were back then. but barack obama just proposed a fiscal commission that liberals like me really didn't like. and he couldn't get republicans to go along with that. barack obama couldn't do the kinds of things ronald reagan could do, because he can't even get the republicans who support the things that he -- >> let me get back to the question. it seems to me, i want to deal with practical politics. it seems to me even the tea party people who are ideological are smart enough to know they've got to win elections. scott brown up in massachusetts, he's pro-choice. they know they can't win with a pro-lifer up there, so they go with a guy that can win. it looks like the fellow who won in illinois the other night, kirk, i'll bet on him in the general. they're picking a guy that's not a tea party guy. they didn't beat him either. >> i agree with you. i don't agree -- >> i don't think the republican party is ready to throw in the towel. >> i don't think you ought to have a national litmus test.

let the state party do it. i can tell you this. if a guy comes in at the state level and wins the united states senate seat and he's pro-choice, and liberal on the social issues, i can tell you, chris, he's got a cut after point in -- >> where are you in mccain versus hayworth? >> if i'm out in arizona, i would vote for j.d. hayworth who is a friend of mine. >> we know where you stand. >> we absolutely know where you stand. he's a birther, an extremist. thank you, pat. >> this is why you lose -- do you know why you lose these people? because you show contempt for them. you call them birthers, call them names. the tea party people, all they want, joan, is respect. and you liberals never give it to them, call them all names. no wonder they go over to the republican party. >> that's unfair. i went to a tea party in san francisco april 15th. go read about it on my blog. i talked to people who i thought

were common sensical, and i pointed to the places where the left and right could make common cause. for the most part, these birthers, they're not reaching out. they're hysterical about barack obama and dividing the country. don't tell me i'm the problem and i'm not reaching out. >> i've helped put together two coalitions, one for reagan, basically evangelical christians and all these protestants down there. you've got to bring them in. also with nixon, we brong the whole wallace movement, at one point it was at 23%, he got 13% of the vote. >> but that was a racist movement. >> you call them all that. >> that's great. >> who did they vote for in 1964? lyndon johnson, for heaven's sakes. >> thank you, pat -- >> and johnson went to the wall for black people and for civil rights and said at the time that he was giving the south away and he knew it. >> he would have never called those people names because he

came from them. >> well, i come from some of them, too. i'm a working class irish catholic. i just don't like the demonization of the president. >> you're demonizing these people. you are demonizing millions and millions of people. tea party people. >> i'm not. i'm demonizing the ones that are -- >> i've got to go, guys. this is an important american argument. pat, thank you. and joan. actually, both my friends. the national tea party convention. certainly a commercial operation that's going to be in nashville this weekend. wait until you hear what's on the agenda this weekend. wait until you catch some of the seminar titles.

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the bill requires being able to disagree without being disagreeable. civility is not a sign of weakness. i am the first one to confess i'm not always right. michelle will testify to that. but surely, you can we my policies without questioning my faith. or for that matter, my citizenship. [ applause ] >> wow. the direct response to the birthers out there who question whether he's an american or not. that was president obama this morning at the national prayer

breakfast. what an interesting place to raise that issue. the tea party convention opens tonight in nashville. a workshop called defeating liberalism via the primary process. on saturday, attendees will hear correlations between the current administration and marxist dictators of latin america. that's interesting. on saturday night they'll hear from governor palin in their keynote address. does this woman have the staying power in the republican party. political director of atlantic media and susan mill egan with the boston globe over at the rotund a. susan, you first. it seems to me you first. it seems to me that there is a whack -- whacky wing to every political movement, i could argue and certainly the tea parties have their whacky elements. the question is does it have the credibility to really move the republican party to the right? >> you know, i don't -- i don't

know. i think that in earlier elections, you had the social conservatives at war with the fiscal conservatives that didn't work out too well for them. the republican party desperately needs the tea party movement to help galvanize republicans and keep people energized, the angriest voters in america now, there is a lot of angry voters, but i think it would be a mistake for the republicans to completely adopt their legislative agenda or they are going to lose in a lot of -- in a lot of districts, you know, like that upstate new york district that isn't going to elect somebody be that conservative. >> can they overdo it? >> sure. the republican party has been pulled in this direction since ronald reagan's time, talking about in your last segment, chuck mathias and jack danforth and the entire republican party is more conservative than they used to be. wherever the baseline moves, people want to move it further. not going to adopt the tea party agenda in full but to a striking extent, the republican party is

monolithically -- >> do you think it is possible, ron, susan, you don't remember this except you learn it had in school, i will ask you the first question, sometimes a party is on a roll to victory and they just signal something too whacky and scary, like spiro agnew in '70, headed to huge victories in the '70 midterm, the nixon party, agnew sounded crazy and they lost a lot of the race these could have won otherwise. cot republicans suffer from overkill with the tea party crowd? >> i mean, i think they could. on the other hand, you know who would have thought scott brown would have been elected from massachusetts? i think a lot -- midterm elections are largely decided by turnout, get a lot of people to turn out, they can get a lot of republicans elected this fall. >> the answer to your question a 2010, 2012 question. midterm elections it is harder for the party in power to make it a choice election, what the democrats want to do they want to talk about republican ideas. paul ryan that very smart house republican put out a budget last week that talks about, again,

replacing medicare with a voucher for everybody under 55. the democrats and republicans will likely want to talk about in the fall. harder to do that in the midterm a presidential year the republican party continues to be pulled in this direction by the tea party energy it is more of an asset i think for obama to make -- >> talking about the other night getting rid of social security for below 55, come in with a defined benefit program, a insurance program. >> moving much from -- going back to bush's individual accounts. in the midterm election, hard for democrats to get to that manies what i is happening now is similar to what we saw in 1994 when it was called the leave us alone coalition. off democratic government, a democratic president, democratic house, democratic senate and doing the things the democrats want to do there is a big chunk of the country, somewhere between a third and maybe 40% that will recoil from that overwhelmingly white, mostly downscale, heavily rural. we are replicating what happened in '94678 the longer term

question between now and november, between now and 2012, can obama reassure more of those independents less ideological, right now not seeing results. >> we will be right back with ron and susan to talk about whether republicans can actually sweep this november, win the senate as well as the house. you are watching "hardball," only on msnbc. low in fat and cholesterol, heart healthy levels of sodium, and taste you'll love. guy: mmmm! chef: we're kind of excited about it. announcer: campbell's healthy request. some pharmacists only dispense prescriptions. your walgreens pharmacist also dispenses wisdom... to help you stay well. so if you're on medicare part d, schedule a free one-on-one plan review session... with your walgreens pharmacist. they'll review all your medications... no matter where they're from... and help you get the most from your plan. so you can relax and enjoy all your benefits. walgreens. there's a way to stay well.

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we are back with the atlantic media's ron brownsteen and boston globe's susan

millegan. start with ron. interest it is interesting, talked about earlier in the show the republican party can pick up delaware and north dakota in the senate race this year because beau biden, the vice president's son isn't running and brian dorkson retiring. castle and hogan can easily pick up those seats. >> easily. for the republicans to take control of the senate they need ten seats. the last time either party won ten senate seats in one election, 1980, republicans won 12. the other hand, in big wave years, 1980, 1986, 2000, 2002 and 2008, all the close races go in one direction. it is a reach for republicans. >> susan, here is how it works out, you review these, pick up delaware, north dakota, they pick up colorado, nevada, arkansas, they beat harry reid, doing weak performance out there. that seems plausible, doesn't it? >> look, i wouldn't even -- i wouldn't even take illinois off the table at this point. i think that, you know, things continue the way they are and the democrats don't seize on

this they could be in trouble. the other hand, i think it is a mistake to assume that this populist movement is only a conservative movement there is a lot of populist anger out there among progressives as well and the democrats have a long time to sort of capitalize on that and tap that energy and energyize those people. i could see it happening. the other hand, who knows, new hampshire, kentucky, missouri, north carolina, you just don't know. >> where do you see a democrat capitalizing on the anti-incumbent attitude right there? >> let's see -- >> missouri might be the best, where you have got -- >> house leader. >> and robin kacarnahan, good gd name there democrats have breathing room if they can win four, missouri, new hampshire, ohio. >> get to the expert now, scott brown was sworn in this afternoon. susan, last thought from you. what are the democrats learning from that defeat? >> well, i think that they are

learning that nobody's safe anywhere. but i think they are also being careful not to read notch into that. i think a lot of the republicans are reading way notch it and thinking that massachusetts is going red or against the health care plan. not that simple a lot of people in massachusetts don't like the health care plan because it doesn't have a public option. they are a little shell shocked by that they have a better candidate. >> thank you very much. ron brownsteen, susan millegan. join us monday for more "hardball." now time for "the ed show" with ed schultz. >> good evening, americans and welcome to "the ed show" from new york tonight. hit my hot buttons, here we go. the republicans say they want bipartisanship. they say they want to get the economy moving again. well, here is your chance. democrats rolling out a jobs package today. and they are looking for a few good republican votes. we will see if they get them. it is a one-two punch for toyota today but the safety concern does make consumers want to buy american. this could be the big break that

detroit's been looking for. diagnosis, selfishness. joe lieberman's state, the state of connecticut, passed universal health care, but he is against it. and i will talk to the connecticut house speaker about just how wrong joe lieberman is and the republican governor when it comes to health care reform in that state. all right. the republicans, they say that they want to create jobs. they are ex-sperpts at that they want the economy to just rebound under president obama. and of course, they want bipartisanship. if you believe all that folks, i have swampland to sell you in florida. the olive branch out and ba in washington, this time the senate democrats glutens for punishment. democratic leaders rolled out a new jobs proposal today it includes good things. a tax credit for businesses for every new worker that a business would hire.