we're going to starve. it's been a week, folks. welcome back to "hardball." that was president obama up in maine on thursday this week mocking news coverage that says his poll numbers have not improved since the health care bill became law last week. seven months from now voters will have a say in how the rest of obama's term goes. most presidents expect the opposition party to do well in the first election. very well. this year could be more intense than normal. could 2010 be like 1994 when president clinton saw republicans take over both houses of congress? ron brownstein, and charlie cook, both columnists for the "national journal" and proud of it. let's go to interesting comparisons. let's start with a fact. seven months from now, the elections. does the president have enough time to shift from the focus on health, the back economic news, being america's president, getting back into issues like

afghanistan, oil drilling and things like that? >> the president might be able to shift, but the question is can congress? we have seen a separation where the president's numbers have leveled off, but congress' numbers and leader's numbers have continued to drop. there is an old saying that history never repeats itself. it only appears to for those who don't know the details. the thing is all these elections are different. they all are. the thing about it is for example, in 1994, unemployment was a little under 6%. in 2006 when republicans got wiped out it was a little under 5%. in this economy it's there in -- unemployment is not going to get significantly better. that number is expected to stay there through the end of this year by the -- >> you have the disquiet about the politics of the government, of the administration in power, plus bad economic situations, right? compare it to reagan back in '81, '82. back then there was concern about the economy. are you saying it wasn't as bad

a concern about the politics? >> i think what happened in 1982, and you and i were both on the hill at that point, the democrats didn't have a full team of candidates on the field. six months before the election we were talking about whether the party would survive the reagan revolution. suddenly it turned good and they had a half team on the field. this is where you have a full year of nine plus percent of unemployment. >> republicans have a chance to suit up no. >> they have full team on the field. >> do you believe that argument? republicans are better at recruitment now? >> the trouble with the democrats were earlier in the cycle. there broad similarities to the '93-'94 period. the broad similarity is the basic alignment of the electorate, you have an energized opposition, republ republicans and conservatives energized under obama. a question whether democrats can get energized. in '93-'94 face the that

question. independents moving in a proesque direction. that's the similarity. the difference is twofold. democrats in congress are responding differently than in '93 and '94. health care collapsed. they went into the election facing a ideological backlash and competency threat. this time by in large they're holding together. the other big difference is obama approval rating has the potential to be six or seven or eight points higher. at the margin particularly in the districts he won that can be an asset. i believe the heart of the -- if the democrats are going to avoid disaster it's going to be by minimizing their losses in the districts obama carried in 2008. there are about 209 democrats in districts he carried. that to me in many ways is to the key for them to avoid the loss. >> back in '94 the democrats faced a republican party that had -- the newt gingrich party -- that had his big

contract with american. i've been suspicious of people who knew about that contact before the election. this time around they have nothing positive to say. i've had people on the show, good republican members. i keep saying what's your plan on health care? they give me a namby pamby thing. can they beat the democrats this fall with a big no. >> i've never seen a med term election about the party who had no power. >> they don't have to have a plan? >> i don't think so. in 1994 the speaker was tom foley. the majority leader was george mitchell. two totally noncontroversial people. i would submit that nancy pelosi and harry reid are polarizing figures and people that are galvanizing republicans and conservatives in a way you've never seen. >> you had the house bank problem back then. >> '92. >> i would disagree a little bit. the standing of the president is more important than the standing of the congress or congressional leaders driving the midterm election.

if obama is in the mid-40 range at the end of the summer -- >> that's your call. the "washington post" has -- >> gallup has them about 50. >> what do you think he is? >> cbs has him at 44. he's been 49 or 50 give or take two or three points. >> i think this country -- i think this country is teetering like this. what changes that are conditions. they get better he'll be better off. and if he shows signs of weakness. the ideological thing is right in the middle. >> who is going to show up? who is going to show up? >> there's also a differential. if he is around 50, that's where the democratic vulnerability is the highest. 46 democrats in mccain districts. in the districts he carried he may still be an asset. you may see a sharp differential, in the senate as well. he can be more help to democrats in the states that he was strong and those who certainly moved away further since 2008

particularly with a lot of white non-college voters down on conditions and on him. >> democrats can carry every sing the district this fall that barack obama carried and lose the house with nine seats to spare. >> that's right. that's why -- the question -- >> you're wrong then. >> no, i'm saying they have to minimize their losses in those seetss. if you look -- he said to carry every one -- >> that would be all 48. which would be a sweep president would include many entrenched members. democrats lose a lot of the seats that mccain carried. it was unlikely to win in the first place. they are more rural and more conservative. they won them in '06 and '08 because bush -- >> is this going two an old whi white person's election? >> it will be a overwhelmingly majority election. the thing is a lot of the newer younger people that came in in 2008, they're going to be nowhere to be seen. >> why? why won't they vote? >> the loyalty is to president obama. their excitement is for him.

it doesn't convey over. >> there is a fertile area for this president to do some work between now and november. get young people to vote. >> they have a little bit -- democrats have a little bit of a boom and bust coalition. they depend on minorities and young people. if the minority share of the vote drops from '08 to 2010 it will be substantially larger than it was in '94. >> you're mooptimistic -- you s the democrats hold the house and the senate? >> i think they hold the senate. i think the house is still a tossup. see the pathway to holding the senate and the house if they minimize losses in places where obama was strong. >> sounds like a little bit between worried and hopeless. thank you, ron brownstein, thank you, charlie cook. up next, michele bachmann says nancy pelosi -- michele

bachmann is where she belongs. in the "sideshow." you're watching "hardball." who says there's nothing like the taste of cool whip? ♪ she does. obviously they do. ♪ oh, and her. so, at national, i go right past the counter... and you get to choose any car in the aisle. choose any car? you cannot be serious! okay. seriously, you choose. go national. go like a pro. breaking up is hard to do. so allstate will do it for you. switch to allstate, and your new agent will... help tell your old insurance company goodbye. saving you that uncomfortable breakup moment. and serious cash. drivers who switched saved an average of $396 a year. $473 if they dumped geico. breaking up is easy to do.

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back to "hardball." now for the "sideshow." i guess the heat has gotten too much for those on the right who had to defend the behavior of protesters at the u.s. capitol during the vote to weeks ago on the obama health care bill. remember that particular site where democratic congressman emanuel cleaver of missouri appears to get spit on by a brutally angry demonstrator. see the hate in the guy's face. the contorted look that continued as the congressman couldn't believe what had happened. there he is. a lot of us saw the image of hatred not seen since the civil rights struggle in the '60s. michele bachmann, no surprise

here, had a different take on the event that disturbed so many of us. here she is last night on fox. >> remember when speaker pelosi walked arm in arm in a civil rights march across independence avenue from the house building over to the capitol. in three years i have never seen nancy pelosi cross the street the way that you saw in that picture. they deliberately went through that crowd, perhaps to try and cite something. there were so many cameras there, shawn, no one recorded any racial motivation. everything we heard in the last week had a racial tinge coming out of the democrats' mouth and there hasn't been racial activity. >> you also -- we saw the person's behavior to emanuel cleaver. why would she change, the congresswoman try to change the subject from what we saw on television? why would she deny the personal experience of her much-admired colleague, u.s. congressman john lewis who reported having that

"n" word thrown at him that weekend? is she saying mr. lieu business made it up, getting reasonable people to believe what we saw was all nancy pelosi's fault? that man spit in public at the u.s. congressman because of what nancy pelosi did? next, conservatives eating their own. here's stephen colbert who called out republicans for health care obstruction and in turn got himself fired from his position at the right wing american enterprise institute. >> i have to correct you on something you said off the bat. i'm not a conservative apostate. i am a conservative and a republican and remain one. >> no, you are not. you have been cast into the darkness where there will be weeping and mashing of teeth. >> i don't accept the verdict of the membership committee. >> that's why you are tossed out. you have to accept what the members say. that's conservatism. there is an authority and there is a -- everyone thinks one thing at a time. that's how you stop health care. >> we didn't, did we?

>> no thanks to you, sir. >> as the saying goes, democrats fall in love and conservatives fall in line. now for the "number." it's the expletive heard around the world. catch president obama yesterday in boston talking up health care. >> as joe biden said who has a way with words. this is -- [ laughter ] what? he said it's a big deal. >> the vice president's exact phrasing included an additional word. as you remember. what do you know? the democratic national committee turned a lemon into lemonade. they've taken the catch-phrase, slapped it on a t-shirt and are selling it online. you can get your bfd shirt with a donation of $25. it reads -- health reform, a bfd." $25 for a piece of unscripted history. tonight's big number." by the way, someone dropped one

off free at the bureau. extra large, perfect. up next, latest example of the far right gone mad. three dozen members across the country have received identical threatening letters urging them to resign. what's going on in this country? why are so many right wing extremists coming out of the hard wood now? ♪ (announcer) right now, all over the country, discover card customers are getting five percent cashback bonus at home improvement stores. it pays to get more, it pays to discover.

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it's welcome back hd. three dozen u.s. governors received letters urging them to resign within three days or face come kind of action to remove them from action. the fbi believes the letters to be a publicity stunt by an

anti-tax group called guardians of the free republicans. or the free -- i think it's the free republics. i think they got that wrong. that doesn't recognize the legitimacy of the federal government, this group. the bureau of the fbi is still concerned that this could rovoke people to taketion like while no one rid me of this -- back in henry ii's days. perry bacon, national political reporter for "washington post" and david corn, washington bureau chief for "mother jones" magazine. gentlemen, we only have history to look at. these things tend to escalate. somebody once spat on the ing a bass door to the u.n., adlai stevenson. some whack job group can send out a letter to governors and say you have three days to get out of there. i would take that as a threat. the fbi says it's a group with no violence in its record. what do we make of all this?

>> the health care is extended beyond health care. in august it was all intensity with the town hall meetings and people yelling about, here's the bill, have you read the bill, congressman? i thought that would dissipate. it seems it's only gotten more aggressive in the last few weeks. i don't know where we are headed next. it seems to have gotten more intense the last few weeks. >> nazi, nazi, nazi they were yelling. >> that was my point. in november of 2009, there was a health care really on capitol hill that was sponsored by the house republican leadership. who all appeared there. boehner, cantor, michele bachmann and others. and people in the audience, tea party types were shouting nazi, nazi, nazi. the problem is extreme rhetoric can create a comfort zone for people who want to take extreme action. >> socialistic health care. there's the picture of the president, the white-faced picture of him as the joker. >> if you're out there calling someone a nazi, what's the next logical step? it's like brad pitt in

"inglorious basterds." the republican leadership has been -- >> what about the walrus under water, rush limbaugh? what do you make of him calling this a regime to a d.c. newspaper? he called the government a regime. i've never heard that. this is not stalin or a junta. we don't have regimes in this country. we have franklin roosevelt, we have harry truman, ronald reagan, administrations. to use the word regime suggests to me, like kill the nazis, regime change. >> it certainly does. i'm not sure that republican leadership can stop these if they wanted to. john boehner. >> what about waving the don't tread on me flag? >> they appeared before an audience shouting nazis and referring the democrats and

obama and they didn't stop it. they didn't say don't do that. they didn't say anything the next day. they actually got the permit for the crowd to appear and do that. it seems at least it's implied acceptance -- >> they should condemn the rhetoric. i'm not sure john boehner the member of the tea party -- >> let me follow you up on the post here. why do you think the president, let's spread this around a bit. we had this michele bachmann, a figure of the right. she was saying nancy pelosi by walking past all the protesters during the vote over health care was stirring them up by creating kind of a civil rights rally look to it that would trigger them. do you buy that? >> i don't think it triggered the crowd up. the imagery with her and john lewis was to design, in some ways say we're standing together. >> was it meant to be provocative? >> e don't think it was meant to be provocative. >> what about the president

zeroing in on, the new phrase is calling out, going after rush limbaugh and glenn beck? the fact he's using the name of basically personalities, not office holders. is that something you think is to provoke more trouble? does he want them to hate them? does he want them to be the chief haters? you're on the liberal side. why is the president naming names? >> we all know who the 800 pound gorillas or elephants are in the room. he was acknowledging reality. >> i think it's walrus. in this case. go ahead. >> you can pick whatever -- >> walrus under water. >> i think the president was acknowledging it and doing it in a calm way, much calmer than -- >> i think his very eloquent way of speaking drives them crazy. >> of course it does. >> we have to go right now. please all come back. perry, great to see you here. thank you, perry baxen, "washington post," david corn of "mother jones." up next, the republican party is divided on whether the campaign on the strategy of repealing

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we're back. republicans have been talking a big game about running on the pledge of repealing health care. you hear that line. we will repeal it. some are distancing themselves from the promise. senator bob corker said last week "i think that's probably not going to be practical." earlier this week the senator

told a group of people at vanderbilt, "the fact is that's not going to happen, okay?" both the illinois senate candidate mark kirk is out there, recently backed away from the idea of repeal. let's listen. >> it is not at this point within our capability. we do not have the votes. we lost. we absolutely lost. the question that i have before me is, how do i help my constituents understand the tremendous tax burden that is about to hit? it may not be total repeal at the end of the day. it may be a series of fixes over the course of the -- this bill getting enacted that enable us to possibly change -- >> so republicans plan to campaign on repeal and replace and shouldn't they stop them from saying it won't work? john feehery is a republican strategist. karen finney is a democratic strategist and former communications director for the democratic national committee. john worked for the speaker of the house. let me ask you john, first, is this smart to say we're going to repeal? >> there is a precedent for repeal.

in '88 and '89 with the catastrophic bill they repealed the legislation. >> the same people that passed it. >> the same people that passed it. in 2004, nancy pelosi promised to repeal the medicare prescription drug bill and largely got a lot of repeal done in this legislation. i don't know if you can repeal the whole thing. obviously the president is there, needs 2/3 vote. you might be able to do a piecemeal thing. the fact of the matter is 2014 is when most of this bill takes place. so you can ultimately repeal. is it practical? is it politically viable? i think that it is one -- a rallying cry for the republican base who will not like this legislation. from that perspective, i think it could be good. you're looking at me funny. >> i feel like i want to give it to you because you've had a rough week. >> a lot of beneficiaries who help carry reform. i watched history as we all have. i don't care if it's the british or the french.

any government that put through a national health care plan has never had to get rid of it. you're afraid people get hooked on this kind of government role and never want to say good-bye to it. i've never heard of a government -- winston churchill, the great man couldn't get rid of british health care in '51. you know this stuff. >> i mentioned catastrophic. why it's similar -- because the benefits came last and the pain came first just like this legislation. >> okay. i'm going to be nice because you had a tough week. i won't talk about strippers. look, two things. how -- >> won't talk about what. >> strippers. >> that was fairly cheap. >> come on. come on. >> how do you possibly, though, run on a message where you go to people and you say, we're going to take something away? you take something away. you know your kids that you've been able to sign up who are 26 years old and not able to get a job right now and you've been able to put them on your health care, we're going to take that away, that's not exactly a message that i think is going to

resonate with the american people. i think chris is right. once you're able to do that you're not going to want that taken away from you. the other piece of this is when are the republicans going to realize you lost. you lost the election, we won the election. president obama campaigned for two years on the idea that he was going to pass health care reform, he won by a very significant majority, and what did he do? he said exactly what he said he was going to do. if you don't like it, get out there and win or put some ideas on the table. >> guys that hire the ex-doctors who's specialty is finding out they didn't have the right contract, didn't sign the right form and yanked it away at the last minute before the surgery. i saw it on "the good wife" it does happen. you want to be the one that says we're bringing back those people that screw you out of coverage? >> i certainly do not. that's why most republicans are talking about repeal and then replace it with something. you can have significant insurance regulation, you can have. >> people can't do that. your own people don't have the votes to do it.

>> we're talking about the -- people are going to want to take away those tax improvements, they don't want the tax increase. >> nobody wants tax increases. >> the fact of the matter is. >> we're talking about taking away -- >> why has stock gone up 40%? it's not bad for the insurance industry. it's actually very good for the insurance industry. if you really want to regulate the insurance industry, you can do that without giving them this huge massive thing that's going to give them a big, big -- >> the point that your message in the fall is not repeal and replace? >> i think we is this repeal legislation. >> but that's the message, that's what you're going to run on. >> here is john boehner trying to have it both ways. one day he said repeal will be difficult, the next day he said, he's talking it up. let's listen. >> with a democratic president for the next 2 1/2 years, even if we gained the majority, it's going to be very difficult to repeal this bill outright. >> the tax hikes, the medicare cuts, the job-killing mand

daylights, the accounting gimmicks, the back room deals, we're going to fight to repeal them at every single term. and the fact is this bill should be repealed and should be replaced with common sense steps that will help reduce the cost of insurance in america. >> so which of these two interesting guys do you believe, the first john boehner or the second john boehner? he's amazingly interesting, this guy. which one do you believe. >> i'm a big fan of john boehner. >> which one? >> i think you can do it, but not until after the republicans have both houses and you have the president who -- >> do tanning powers get covered under this bill? >> if you're a tanning person. >> is that what sarah palin was upset about, they wouldn't let her write off her tanning bed? >> like other people -- >> republicans have a hard time getting those tanning beds paid for. >> it's great to have you here, guys. >> happy friday, happy good friday. thank you for coming. >> good to see you. >> and thank you. you're a good --

>> thanks. >> when we return, a potential bombshell about one of the heroes of humanity. one of the real heroes of a terrible time, in world war ii where he saved thousands of lives. we'll be back in a minute on msnbc. i have allergies. ♪ you're right. i'm getting more air. -oh, yeah. -oh, wow! [ female announcer ] for two free samples, go to breatheright.com.

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let me finish this good friday with new information about the fate of raul

wallenberg. ever since world war ii during which he saved the lives of tens of thousands of jewish people, all we knew what the soviet union said, he died in july of 1947, two years after the end of the war. apart from this claim by the soviet government which could hardly be trusted, his fate has been one of the mysteries of the second world war. the reason is deep and powerful. at a time when 6 million people were being put to death because of their religious and cultural background, this man and his colleagues managed to save thousands of numbers of jews. based on the archives of the russian federal service came word that a certain prisoner number seven was interrogated six days after he had been officially reported dead. the information was given to members of an investigation team that had been working on this case for years. he is one of the true heroes in resisting the holocaust. when he was stationed in

budapest, the swedish diplomat prevented the deportation of jews who would have otherwise ended up in nazi death camps and stopped german officers from attacking a jewish ghetto. he issued passports identifying people as swedish subjects. they looked real and were accepted by authorities, some of whom had to be bribed to believe it. as part of his effort, he rented over 30 buildings in budapest and claimed them swedish twoert. he put up signs like the swedish library, and those buildings saves tens of thousands. he handed out phony passports to people on a train, then led those people to a caravan of

waiting cars and they all drove off to safety. this news that he was being interrogated in a prison in moscow in july 23rd of 1947, a week after his previously-reported death opens up the whole question of what happened to this good and courageous man. we need to learn more. we need to remember him and how a good man, even in the midst of the worst could do his best. that's this show this good friday. thanks for watching. "countdown" with keith olbermann starts right now. which of these stories will you be talking about tomorrow? not the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning. 162,000 new jobs last month. >> we are beginning to turn the corner. >> the republicans claim that job gains are all temps from that evil census. boehner says it will hurt boeing and at&t.

demint lies that because of the individual mandate they will hire new reforcers, the mandate being of course the republican idea. the insurance century gamed the old city, relabel overhead as health care, sell only to the healthy. the warnings from our special guest, wendell potter. they expect all 50 governors to resign. a far-right group sends letters to at least 30 of them giving them three days to quit or face removal. this group is apparently nonviolent. the fear, other groups who might not be nonviolent. governor bibi of arkansas. >> what it said is resign, reapply and we'll reinstate you if you sign this deal. >> our special guest, one of the other recipients, governor ed rendell of pennsylvania. a cnn commentator threatens to pull a shotgun on any census worker telling him to fill out

the supplemental census. the florida you'rologist who asks patients who voted for obama to get their health care somewhere else. and the greatest american humorist of the 20th century joins this program. kind of. tonight's short story, a box to hide in. all the news and commentary now on "countdown."