>> very unlikely she will do that. you see the tea party candidates trying, some with more success than others, to find their way to a middle. once they get that republican nomination. you saw saw sharon angle trying literally run away from her previous position when's they were put in front of her by reporters. and so i would expect that with this candacy, you'll see a similar move in delaware to try to find something closer to the middle in delaware, to try to just pooh-pooh the negative talk about her. her previous campaign manager has come out and said she just used the campaign money to pay her own rent which is not legal use of campaign money. i think she will try to just brush that story aside as the typical cross fire that any politician gets into, and try to find her way to the middle on some of these policy questions. >> but in 49 days, how much nondamage can she do to herself

when as rachel maddow showed these tapes from mtv, there are tapes in which a candidate for senate for the use, which is what she is now, is discussing openly how people shouldn't masturbate? that would seem to be a difficult sell even in delaware. >> she's going to say it's 14 years ago and she is going to try to not get into repeating those specifics that she got into on that tape. and try to say something that sounds, indicate religiously high minded. that is kind of general. and saying no one should press me on these issues. she may take what she took into a punish you've and now try to play it as a personal issue that should not be questioned. >> 30 seconds, it's a speight impression. does she go heavy on the impression or less heavy? >> look.

what she has done so far has worked. so i don't think you're going to see her performance skills changing any. i think she will run this way, all the way to november. >> lawrence o'donal, host of the last word at this hour. september 27th at 10:00 p.m. great thanks. that's september 14th. the night of the o'donnell nomination in delaware. good night and good luck. good evening. thank you for joining us on this very big primary nature as the news continues to unfold. it is now just after 11:00 on the east coast. just after 8:00 on the west coast. and the polls are now closed. in the seven states holding primary elections tonight, plus the district of columbia.

tonight is the last major night of primaries for this year's elections. yes, yes, i know. there is a run-off in louisiana still. and on saturday there is a primary in the state of hawaii. but other than that, that's it. tonight is the last big night to set the standards, to set the score card for which democrats and which republicans will be facing off against one another in november. results are still coming in at this hour. the biggest result of the night is the political earthquake that has taken place in the state of delaware where tea party favorite christine o'donnell is the nominee for the senate. defeating mike castle tonight. he had never before lost an election. mike castle was the republican party's pick for this senate seat. with 100% of precincts reporting, christine o'donnell has been declared the winner to mike castle's 47%. we'll have more on that race in

just a moment. first some other results to bring you at this hour. in the great state of new hampshire, another tea party backed candidate, ovide la montagne. he now leads kelly ayotte to fill the seat of retiring senator judd gregg. with 21% of precincts in, he is leading ms. ayotte 43% to 37%. although he is seen as the outsider favorite, you should know it was miss ayotte who received the backing of sarah palin. he is ahead of her 43-37%. another inassistance of an outsider conservative candidate leading the republican establish choice. in the state of new york, embattled democratic congressman charlie rangel trying to hold on to his house seat going for a 21st term in congress. even as he faces an ethics trial

in the house of representatives. charlie rangel is facing five democratic challengers for his seat. he leads them all with 19% of precincts reporting. charlie rangel, 48% of the vote. his nearest challenger adam clayton powell iv with 24% of the vote. new york is the scene of another shocker tonight. this one coming in the republican race for governor. the associated press is now reporting that carl pal dino has defeated the fellow republican rick lazio in that race. a stunning result in the new york governor's race. carl paladino has enjoyed tea party support. he has made himself famous in this campaign because there was a publishing of hard pornographic e-mails that he sent to friends and political associates. the big news so far tonight is the major upset in the state of delaware where tea party favorite cristine o'donnell has

defeated mike castle mr. castle thought to be a relative lock in that race just weeks ago. with 100% of precincts now reporting, she defeated mike castle 53-47%. the other big result tonight, carl palodino defeating rick lazio. that is being called by the associated press. that is the republican primary for the governorship in the state of new york. mr. palodino will face andrew cuomo. shortly after the o'donnell versus mike castle results became official in delaware, make castle, the defeated republican establishment candidate in that race, addressed his supporters at his headquarters. >> the last several weeks have been spirited. the voters have spoken and i respect that decision. i had a very nice speech prepared here, hoping i would win this race. and talked about the things we've been able to do to create

jobs and reduce taxes and those things that make a difference to delaware. still a long way to go, by the way. i still have some time in office so i will be ferry conveniently trying to carry out my responsibilities. >> mr. castle now becomes the latest in a long line of republican party endorsed candidates to lose to an outsider. a conservative movement challenge they are year. within the last hour, christine o'donnell addressed her supporters at a victory rally in dover, delaware. >> i can't thank everyone by name because we would be here until midnight. so many people have sacrificed so hard. but i specifically want to thank the 9/12 patriots for laying the foundation and stirring thing up in delaware. the founders values group and all the delaware tea party groups.

you are the visionary who's made this possible. you rallied everyday americans outside the political establishment, brought them involved and created a grassroots network. that made all of this possible. i want to thank the tea party express for getting behind -- where are they? we're in this to win. and we're in this to win big. and win big we did. don't ever underestimate the power of we the people. >> a very happy christine o'donnell addressing her

supporters. i have one other live shot to show you. this is another very excited campaign headquarters. carl paladino's headquarters. having defeated rick lazio, the establishment republican candidate for new york governor. we'll be talking much more about that race later on this hour. carl paladino beating rick lazio for the republican primary for governor in new york state. a shocking, shocking result here in new york state. again, christine o'donnell to fim the seat of joe biden shelf now moves on to face chris kuhns in the general election. the republican party in delaware is left to figure out if they want to unite behind christine o'donnell as their new daflt it is not necessarily an easy task given the party chairman recently proclaim she was not a viable candidate for any office in the state of delaware. she could not be elected dog catcher. the state party in delaware also ran robocalls against her today

featuring her former campaign manager for one of her many senate campaigns. that campaign manager saying, in those robocalls, that christine o'donnell had lived off campaign donations for her personal expenses. that robocall also calling her a fraud. that was run by the republican party. republican party now has seven weeks to get behind christine o'donnell if they are going to. whether or not that will happen is something we shall soon find out and shall enjoy covering very much. joining us for this big primary night is chris matthews, host of "hardball." and lawrence o'donnell. let me ask but this. you think no question the republican party finds a by to fall in love with her and get behind her? >> they have to. i already saw a letter from the senate republican campaign committee. they've already gotten excite about her. they are going to do what they have to do.

i think you pointed out rather correctly, you notice the fact that the defeated republican candidate didn't endorse her tonight. so that bit of fence mending has yet to be done and it may not be done. i would have been shocked if she had gotten 40% tonight. up until late today, in fact, well into the evening, the establishment types from delaware were saying, this isn't going to happen. this is a shattering upset. there is no doubt about it. nobody expected it. they were talking 60% for castle late this afternoon. they assumed they had her well in hand. and look what she did. >> lawrence, what is the end of mike castle's political career mean tonight? a 9-term congressman, seen as a moderate but certainly not a liberal democrat. at least anywhere outside of republican campaign literature. are there moderates left in the republican party? do they have to go into hibernation and wake up in a few years or do they become democrats? what do they do? >> a couple of them hiding out in maine.

occasionally reporting to the united states senate. no, this is the end. delaware had a moderate republican senator, william roth who rose to the chairman finance committee. and he was one of those republicans the democrats could work with on a certain percentage of what they were trying to do. so delaware is apparently not going to be the place that sends that kind of republican to washington. if delaware can't do it and we really are down to maine, then yeah. we are seeing the end of what would have been, what used to be, there used to be something that i think we'll lose the young you had a yoens this. there used to be a thing in washington called a liberal republican. they actually existed. connecticut had a liberal republican in the senate who was replaced by joe lieberman who ended up being to the right of the republican that he replaced. there was the so-called rockefeller punl which was considered a liberal republican.

named for the governor of new york. governor rockefeller. no such thing, nothing even close to a liberal republican. the moderate republican was the outer edge of that side of the republican party for a couple decades. and now they are becoming extinct. >> chris, am i right that you don't believe the common wisdom that republicans getting less moderate, really purging the moderates and going with set candidates, that reduces their electability? >> not this year. not this year. this year is a year of right wing anger and i think moderate to progressive frustration. middle of the road fear. i think the country is scared to death. i think there will always be a middle class country if we're lucky, economically middle class. i would like to see more middle class really meaning middle class, not just at the bottom. and they're scared at the bottom, they're scared at the top. as robert righteous once told

me, they fear mob at the gate and the mob at the top. when they're scared they get angry and i have to tell that you voting in america is very, very angry at the establishment. god then person who waves the flag and says i'm the big shot here. i deserve to be reelected. god help that person. i've been waiting for this kind of an election. i didn't think it would come from the right. i thought there would be a throw the bums out race for years and i've never seen one. 97 that he is of incumbent senators get reelected year after area like the old politbureau. now this is almost a self-indictment. it used to be here i am. i have the right law degree. i have this. look what happened to martha coakley in massachusetts? she had all the credentials. she was supported by women's groups. the action commit year, she had all the right what do you call them cards? she had all the right tools to

win and she lost because she was the establishment. i see it in almost every race. if you're the establishment, which is a british term. that you know having studied over there. i think it is appropriate here. and i don't think it is a popular term anymore. >> in terms of the, i guess democratic glee that we experienced tonight, democrats are excited about the prospect of being able to hold on to that senate seat in delaware. because it is christine o'donnell. democrats are excited about the prospect of running against la montagne. what chris is saying is this is a fundamentally different election. there is no price for extremism. that you cannot look too backy. it can't be a grounds for using an election. >> i don't think there is anything for them to be gleeful about tonight. there are thing to be hopeful about. if mike castle had come through with a very solid win, in

delaware tonight, it the democrats would simply pull, drop any hope. of winning the state and not send any resources there to help out. now they have a very, very good shot. they've got a solid shot in delaware tonight. and so this is the kind of hope that sprung up in nevada when sharon angle got the nomination there. and you know, harry reid's number rose from the death kind of polling he was doing throughout for an incumbent, up to viability. and he now seem to be on his way to holding on to his seat. thanks to the republican primary process delivering what appears to be an unelectriciable in nev. that's the democratic hope. there is not that much time between now and election day to dismantle, derail the momentum that christine no relation

mcdonnell has going in that state. >> i was studying the number the other night. pollsters.com which is the composite of the polling. it showed rand paul ahead by seven. pat toomey ahead by 7. roy bloun ahead by . the only states are the states we used to take for granted a couple months ago. barbara boxer in california, the 18-year incumbent and patty murray is very popular. she is in trouble. as is as you mentioned, harry reid running dead we've this far out candidate. and of course, wisconsin. out of all people, mr. pure, the absolutely perfect in temperature of integrity united states senator, he is facing a self-financer. the races we took for granted were in play. the one we thought were in play are almost lost right now. >> chris matthews and lawrence

o'donnell. gentlemen, i enjoy talking with you about this very, very much. thanks so much. i appreciate it. chris will be back at midnight with a special live edition of "hardball." i'm coming to take over the world, of lick racing, starting with you, dsrl. stufy, make the call. ♪

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tonight the ruling class knows, they've seen it now. they not only know it but they've seen it. there is a people's revolution. every day new yorkers are mad enough to change the ballot box. the people have had enough. >> multimillionaire real estate developer carl paladino invading against the ruling class. he has just beaten former congressman rick lazio to win new york state's republican gubernatorial primary.

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as we mentioned earlier this hour, the new york gubernatorial primary with 47% of precincts reporting, carl paladino is the projected winner. he leads rick lazio 67-33%. carl paladino will be the republican party's candidate for governor of new york state. wow! carl paladino funded this campaign with about $10 middle of his own money. a huge fortune made in real estate as among other thing, the largest landlord for state offices in buffalo which is awkward given his campaign stance as the i really hate government the most guy.

since such a huge proportion of his huge income come from the government. he is also famous for sending this. a western new york publication called wny media.net received and published what they call a deluge of e-mails that carl paladino had sent to a who's who of politicians, media types and hangers on. including this not actually a photo, photo shopped image of the president and first lady dressed for what the e-mail subject line called a white house ball. thanks, carl. another one called proof the irish discovered africa which had as an attachment monkeys doing a little river dance style jig. you get it? irish because they're doing the little dance. and africa because they're -- yeah. another super racist e-mail included video of an african tribal dance under the title, obama inaugurate rehearsal. other e-mail from him we cannot

show you. they're just plain out straightforward hard core porn. and some of it involved not so straightforward hard core porn but rather people having sex with animal. carl paladino would forward porn clips with that with subjects like, a keeper, and easy steady big fella. but it was the e-mail with the african tribal dance which purports to be the president's inauguration rehearse pal prompted an angered response from one of his e-mail recipients. to which mr. paladino applied this way. i apologize to you and everyone if that is offensive. to me it's just humor. i'm not a racist and have never related obama's color to my political distaste for him. i'm not sensitive to ethnic humor. he uses a series of ethnic slurs which you can see on the screen but i i can't say out loud. i think the oversensitivity to black/white is wrong and in itself is demeaning.

i advocate for the plight of our inner city youth. he further riffed on his nonapology, apology by saying the only reason he uses racist constructions and racist and pornographic -- sends racist pornographic e-mail like this is because he is in the construction business. he also emphasized his species in defending himself. >> i'm human. i'm human like you and like everybody else. so don't pontificate to me. okay? >> you know, humans with their racie isist pornographic e-mail. the inner city youth, he says he is committed to them, his plans are to teach them basic thing including personal hygiene. he has converted converting prison dorm into welfare centers. quote, instead of handing out welfare checks, we'll teach them how to earn their check. personal hygiene, the personal thing they don't get when they come from dysfunctional homes. you have to teach them basic

thing. taking care of themselves, physical fitness in their dysfunctional environment, they never learned these things. on his campaign website, he calls his send welfare recipients to prison plan, the dignity corps. he also likens his vision in which they are only chronically dirty to fdr's new deal. it's exactly the same thing. carl paladino is now the official party candidate for governor of new york. joining us from party headquarters, andrew, thank you. >> good to be here. a very subdued rick lazio campaign headquarters. in fact, just a little while ago, ed cox, new york state's republican party charity, came in and gave a bit of a pump up the crowd speech and never once mentioned the name rick lazio. which is very unusual, given this is lazio campaign headquarters. cox also said there was record republican turnout in new york

state today. and while those numbers have yet to back out, back up that claim, that would indicate that for the first time really in this whole cycle, new york state rode that same tea party wave which has affected other states. this paladino victory started to build over the weekend a couple of polls which showed the race tightening and it really turned into a tidal wave of number throughout the day today. we have yet to see rick lazio appear here at his headquarters. >> we saw the establishment versus outsider dynamic at work in so many ways in this campaign. mr. paladino actually lost to rick lazio at the state republican convention. he had to petition his way into this primary essentially. what indications are we getting that the republican establishment may or may not be able to embrace carl paladino as their candidate and really work for him to try to win this race? >> well, material indications i got earlier tonight from the state republican party chairman

was, quote, whoever comes out of the chute tonight will support. and this was a couple hours ago. so already, there is an indication that they're going to embrace carl paladino and make this a contest against andrew cuomo. you probably heard from paladino's speech in buffalo tonight, he used the term status cuomo. you can expect to hear that tonight. interesting that rick lazio was treated as an incumbent even though he didn't hold office. paladino ran with the mad as hell theme as if lazio needed to be taken out of office but he didn't hold office. they can get behind this energy. if there was really record turnout, if they did mobilize people in erie county and albany and syracuse to the polls, those are the voters they're going to need in november if they're going to have a shot against a well funded popular democrat like andrew cuomo. >> wnbc's andrew joining us from

rick lazio's headquarters. really invaluable to have you on the program tonight. thank you so much. >> happy to be here. >> so the right, the conservative part of america, owns most of the media real estate this season. but the left has tonight punished an establishment democrat as well. some big and unexpected news from new hampshire coming up. along with "washington post's" ezra kline. i want to give my 5 employees health insurance,

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tonight's election's results will be viewed as a victory for the far right themselves continue to romp over the establishment gop candidates in the republican primaries. do you want to know who else it is a victory for? for moveon.org and planned parenthood and emily's list and the progressive change campaign

committee. in a much more low profile way, those lefty groups were busy challenging establishment candidates this year, too. and tonight they appear to have won big in new hampshire. where the liberal challenger, ann mclean kuster appears to have won against katrina swett. it was almost a foregone conclusion. she is a mull mr. previous candidate. she is also both the daughter of and wife of former congressman. but she lost tonight to ann mclean kuster. and the strong prochoice credentials. joining us now, ezra, msnbc contributor. thank you for joining us again. >> how are you? >> same as i was before except more blown away. this is not the big narrative. the big narrative is about what is going on on the right.

has the much smaller that's true of what people are paying attention. to is this a sign of enthusiasm or at least organization among the democratic base? >> certainly a sign of organization. you know, and it what we are seeing, there is this. people don't like d.c. right now. the narrative is supposed to be people don't like democrats. in fact they don't like d.c.'s republicans either. you see the d.c. democrats going down. like swett and you see the republicans going down like in delaware with castle. and the basic message is they don't like what's going on right behind me. >> this is shaping up in new hampshire. this race, this kuster versus swett race in new hampshire. we don't have every precinct reporting but it is shaping up to be a very big spread. and in an election in which there is not a primary next which there is not huge turnout, there aren't a ton of people voting. you usually expect name recognition to make a difference. katrina swett is one of the

biggest name there. >> it is becoming a liability. the really big thing happening this year which is different from many past years, you're seeing real pillars of the establish many fall. that doesn't just matter because they're losing the primaries. it matters because because if a katrina swett or a bob bennett can go down, who are you to say you can't? and that mean that when congress comes back in november. whatever happens in the election. every liberal, every moderate, every conservative let's a lot hard better crossing their party. the long term effect will make us a much more elected parliamentary team. over there people will be much, much more concerned about facing a primary. there is no one who can say there is a reason i'll be safe when these other people weren't. they were supposed to be safe. >> certainly the cudgel is much bigger than the one being

wielded by the left. i await the sort of beltway media narrative about democrats being afraid of their base. it so rarely happens but we do see a little evidence of it tonight. right? >> we do see a little. we're seeing a lot of evidence that every incumbent in d.c. has a lot of reason to be afraid of their base. tonight. it will be interesting to see in 2012 we're having similar conversations to this one. it will be interesting to see if we're seeing a face change or a one-time movement. >> msnbc contributor up well past his bedtime at this point. ezra, thank you for joining us tonight. >> thank you. just to recap, tonight's biggest headline, the biggest headline out of tonight's primaries, these the last big primaries before november. the last big primary night before we get to the mid-term elections. the biggest result tonight is tea party candidate christine o'donnell upsetting delaware republican congressman mike castle. the did he go did he go republican senate primary is that huge story. we'll have much more on miss

o'donnell including a remarkable video of her speaking to mtv about abstinence in her previous career as an abstinence organizer. that's coming up next. plus, carl paladino beating rick lazio for the new york governor's republican nomination. stay with us. than many other allergy medications. hoo? omnaris. [ men ] omnaris -- to the nose! [ man ] did you know nasal symptoms like congestion can be caused by allergic inflammation? omnaris relieves your symptoms by fighting inflammation. side effects may include headache, nosebleed, and sore throat. [ inhales deeply ] i told my allergy symptoms to take a hike. omnaris. ask your doctor. battling nasal allergy symptoms? omnaris combats the cause. get omnaris for $11 at omnaris.com. battling nasal allergy symptoms? omnaris combats the cause.

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establish many pick mike castle for the delaware senate republican nomination. with tonight's win, she become a name with which americans will soon be much more familiar. of course, tonight she actually won which should not be confu d confused. in two of delaware's three counties when she ran against him for senate even though she said that multiple time in her campaign, this time around, that wasn't actually true. biden trounced her soundly. you may recall that miss o'donnell flirted the suggestion that mike castle was secretly gay. when confronted about making those allegations, she denounced the my opponent is gay tactic by repeating it a lot and then she told him to put his man pants on. it should be noted in her victory speech tonight, he she have decide what she said were character assassination tactics. she ascribed those tactics to other people's politics. heading into today's vote, the 2008 campaign manager for

christine o'donnell's failed bid to unseat joe biden, kristen murray called o'donnell a complete fraud. this was in a robocall from the state republican primary against o'donnell. >> this is her third senate race in five years. as o'donnell's manager, i found out she was living on campaign donations using them for rent and personal expenses while leaving her worker unpaid and piling up thousands in debt. she was not concerned about conservative debt. she just wanted to make a buck. >> her former campaign manager. that robocall effort was to get voters to not vote for ms. o'donnell today. it did not have its desired effect. tonight we can mark the occasion of the victory, a result that is certain to reverberate in november, perhaps negatively affecting the chances of taking back the senate. we can mark that victory with this. christine o'donnell speaking to mtv in 1996 in her capacity as

an abstinence campaigner which is the job that she had before she started deciding to run for senate three time in five years. the woman you see here is now all but officially the republican party's candidate for u.s. senate in delaware. >> my name is christine o'donnell. i am the president and founder of the s.a.l.t. it stands for the savior's alliance for lifting the truth. we choose sexual purity in our lives. we have god-given sexual desires and we need to understand them and preserve them to be used in god's appropriate could not tech. we need to address sexuality with young people. and masturbation is part have sexuality but it is important to discuss this from a moral point of view. >> masturbation is a selfish act and a lustful one and we are to walk with pure hearts, not adulterous lusting hearts. >> the bible is clear in that it says any sexual act outside of

the realm of marriage is wrong. >> the bible says that lust in your heart is committing adultery. so you can't masturbate without l.s.u. the reason you don't tell them that masturbation is the answer to aids and all these other problems that come with sex outside of marriage is because again, it is not addressing the issue. you're going to be pleasing each other. if he already knows what pleases him and he can please himself, dwlen am i in the picture. >>? christine o'donnell winning the republican senate primary. author of the popular blog attitude. he is author of the backlash. good to see you. thanks for joining us. >> good to see you. what a night, huh? >> i feel like i'm a human exclamation point. >> me, too. >> while that tape was playing, we just got some breaking news that i want to get your response

to. an nrsc. national republican senate campaign official, the republican party senate campaign has now just told the "wall street journal" that they will not spend money on christine o'donnell in delaware. what do you think, they say if her position improves, the committee might reconsider the allocation of scarce resources. how does christine o'donnell prove herself to republican that's she is worthy of main stream support now? >> that's shocking news. i'm surprised to hear. that i knew there wouldn't be a unity rally but i didn't expect to hear. that i think it will be very hard. a lot of media, we love the kind of sarah palinesque features of christine o'donnell's personality. the truth is wharks found that really drove her 56th rirk spent a lot of time in delaware. in fact, i did a lot of reporting on the 9/12 patriots which is the first tea party group that she thanked in her vktry speech tonight.

they are motivated in their anger toward mike castle. i don't think they're motivated by their love of her. these crazy issues, talking about lust and masturbation is not what i found in my year that animates the tea party. and now that castle is out of the way it will be interesting to see what kind of enthusiasm she can generate, especially among the half of republican who's didn't vote for her, among moderates who heard these ads. chris kuhns got the greatest gift of all. he got two week of advertising again her that he did not have to pay a dime for. >> in her victory speech tonight, she specifically shouted out the 9/12 patriots and asked somebody from the group to come up on stage. and talk about the founding of that group. the anecdote that was related from the stage in the middle of her victory celebration was about how karl rove had come to delaware and talk to christine about needing to get behind them. and they said get lost, karl.

that was the message from the stage tonight. >> absolutelyism recounted that scene in the book. russ murphy will me all about it. that's how worried the republicans were. this happened in december of last year. if you don't think the republican establish many wasn't very scared this could happen, eight months ago, they were terrified. they knew there was anger about castle. there was anger because voters see him as too patrician and out of touch. there was anger because he voted for obama's cap and trade plan. the tea party movement, one vote for an obama program can be the kiss of death. they'll never vote for you again. >> so what happens to the gop establishment? a party just doesn't wither away. dick army isn't going to be taking michael steele's job in the next five minutes. there has to be some sort of reckoning with the huge extent verk well moneyed republican establishment. what happens to them? did they just adapt or did they eventually have to get beaten into submission? >> i think beaten into

submission. there is only 12 weeks between now and election day. these risks are huge right now. and i don't think it looks good. where they go in 2011, i don't know. >> will bunch, senior writer for the philadelphia daily news whose beat just got that much more interesting. >> absolutely. really appreciate it. good luck with the book tour. >> thanks. >> the slate of contestants is set for the first tuesday in november. first of all, wow! also what happens now? political number cruncher supreme nate silver will be here to talk to us next. it's beneful incredibites. uh-huh! it's just the way you like it-- made with wholesome grains, real beef, even carrots and peas. you love the smaller-size, easy-to-chew kibbles, and i love the carbohydrates for energy and protein for muscles. whoa! wait for me! ha-ha. you only think you're getting spoiled. [ woman announcing ] beneful incredibites. another healthful, flavorful beneful.

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and how trashed my desk is because each one of these pieces of paper has to be facing me because each piece of information on each of these pieces of paper is more amazing than the last. we may have the makings of another upset in tonight's primaries. we are talking about new hampshire. in a primary field vying for the

senate seat judd gregg is vacating, it stands right now with a 30% that she is over kelly 31 to 48%. should he win they would find themselves in another pickle. similar to what they are facing in delaware. he is expected to have more difficulty attracting moderate and independent voters then kelly would. that would make the smiles on the faces of democrats get even wider. joining us now is meet silver. here he is, nate silver, one of in terms of this race, he said the republicans had a 1-4 chance of taking back to the senate. tell us the big picture if the results to go the way they look

they will go and what the update is. >> we would be down to about 15% if they win in new hampshire. they are taking a long time to count the votes i might add. the rays in delaware, he will not have bat race funded because it is smart. they have better opportunities relatively speaking in a state like west virginia or connecticut. delaware has become a fourth-tier target. she is in enough trouble with it would not give her a stage and a microphone and let the reasonable alternatives they have in west virginia say in a state that has turned very red. that seems like a better chance for them to get to 51 seats. >> you are referring to this news we just got current "wall street journal" reporting that the national republican senatorial committee that fonds senate candidates has not had

very good luck with their chosen candidates. they do not plan to spend money on the delaware senate nominee, the 1 that caveat is that the note is that if o'donnell's position improves, they may reconsider its allocation of scarce resources. >> there are some polling that come out with a pulled that motivates their base at certain times. after any primary, you want to wait a week or two before you can't trust any poll that you see. you have such a compressed time frame in delaware. another reason why it may not be the best fight. they have not made any ground work to get a positive message out there. you will be in october. meanwhile there are more than a

dozen center bases. the house has an infinite number, 90 or 100 competitive seats. i think that maybe they are angry at the conservative activists tonight. if they are smart, they will try to talk it up to a defeat in go-ahead and pursue other paths. >> do you expect if new hampshire, how it will have as big an effect as the o'donnell over castle victory in delaware. is that not as dark a choice? >> he is a guy that is more conservative, but he endorsed mitt romney. he is not somebody that is on the extreme but she led in every single poll for more than a year. he has trailed in more polls than he has.

you are taking a risk, but that may be more of an organic kind of thing. in delaware they went off script. when you have people vote and don't just look at polls and we've been narrative's vacuum here, sometimes the voters go off script and create real news and not horse race stuff. >> all sorts of things can happen. inmates are fuller, thank you for staying up late with us. >> it has been a remarkable night in american politics. our coverage continues in just a moment. please stay with us. ♪

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primaries. this election year are turning out to be. tea party favorite, christine o'donnell as the republican party's defeating castle who had never before lost an election. in new york another major upset in the republican race. the tea party supporting paul ladino with alarming policies in his platform, that he wants to have class's -- he is best known for a rash of willy hard-core pornographic and racist e-mails he sends to friends and political associates. he is saying in his victory speech they say i am an angry man, and that is true. we are all in green. in new hampshire tonight, they are projecting that any customer ha