>> the infrastructure we're lacking is civics. >> i like the letter and the candor. that does it for us. i'm dylan ratigan. thank you for spending your afternoon with us. let's play hard ball. good evening. i'm chris matthews up in new york leading off tonight, boiling hot tea. the fire on the right that threatens democrats in the fall is now beginning to burn republican bridges. and the last two days mike castle blamed his loss on lies by shawn hannity and rush limbau limbaugh. sarah palin and rush went after rove. the tea party has a seat at the republican table. but the knives are out.

and make no mistake if, this new band of republicans get -- grabs control of congress, they'll force another government shutdown and probe the obama white house to death. that's their goal. they've said it. launch a relentless campaign to kill government and take down this president. and it certainly going to happen if democratic voeders stters st this november. what this f. they close the gap between now and then? there are two polls that actual sli some upbeat news for democrats if they can get their people to the voting booths. remember, that ven yom by newt gingrich by president obama having a anti-colonial world view? i wouldn't you to know what the moderate republicans are saying. when are they going to say enough of this race baiting nonsense? we'll ask one tonight whether he's willing to defend the tribal talk -- tribal talk or stifle it. and christine o'donnell gets some advice on handling the media from sarah palin. that's, of course, the side show tonight. let's start with the fire on the

right. mark halpern is a senior analyst and "time" magazine cover this week is "it's tea party time." and josh marshal of the much -- well, highly distinguished talking points memo. thank you for joining us. you're sitting right here. don't pretend i'm not here. karl rove, rush limbaugh and sarah palin played out the republican party split over christine o'donnell. let's see it. it's only september. look at the sparks fly. it started with rove's skepticism towards the victory by christine o'donnell tuesday night. let's listen to this strange fight. >> some of got ole boys, and i have nothing against karl rove personally. he's the expert. but some of the folks are saying that people like christine o'donnell and others, tea party americans can't win because they don't want them to win. >> there are just a lot of nutty things she's been saying that simply don't add up. >> everything i know that saw

this was just -- they were perpl perplexed. why is he so mad at a republican? >> i endorsed her the other night. i said i'm for the republican in each and every case. i was one of the first to do it. look, i'm also helping her. i got so many people that written me an e-mail saying i'm irritated with you saying what you said the other night. i'm giving her a campaign contribution. >> mark halpern that, is the fastest i've seen a guy stuffed at the basket there. karl rove, the architect of the bush machine is now admitting he was wrong within, what, 24 hours. what's going on here? can karl rove speak anymore or must you obey the tea party now? >> well, let's try to break down what his objection and some other -- a lot of other prominent republicans were worried about if she became the nominee. they're not saying her views are too extreme. karl thinks her views are fine. they're worried about two things. they're worried about the personal baggage she has and

what they believe the character problem will make her unlektable. they don't want as a matter of real politics to lose the seat. the problem is a more cultural one. there are people in the tea party whose attitude is if someone is against the establishment, we're for them. if anybody criticizes them, they're criticizing the heart and soul much the movement. that is a cultural and psychological problem that i think karl misplayed and it will be a challenge for the republican party. i don't think between now and the mid terms but certainly beyond in governing and then looking towards the president. >> what is the cultural problem of karl rove? continue this cycle on both sides. why is an establishment figure like karl rove who makes money doing this, talking about politics, why is he so angry at her for winning? she wins the nomination. at that moment he should have been supportive of her. what did anybody gain from her -- him dumping on her after she won? >> it was a mistake. i think karl basically said this in an interview, karl is an analyst for fox news.

he was wearing his hat that sb zeros and ones. are we going to win the seat or not? his point is we just failed to nominate someone who would definitely win the seat. democrats were going to give up on that race. now we've nominated someone who almost definitely from carl's point of view will lose the seat. i think he was being an analyst rather than doing what he should have done which ch is to say she won, isn't it great? a new young voice in the party even if that doesn't mean she thought she could win. >> you know, the arabs win and we're all rooting for them. although we have turned today, beating the turks. they all get to damascus. they start fighting each other with knives. i mean they haven't won yet. it's not november yet. they're already fighting with each other. >> the republicans are falling apart to victory. you know, it's a fun yind of thing. the thing, is i actually disagree with mark. look at the first interview that rove did, there was more than just analyst there's. it wasn't just him saying -- >> why's he angry? >> he's angry because he's a professional.

does he this for a living. i likes winning elections. he sees someone like her as an amateur. if you look at that first interview, there was something denigrating in the voice. >> what's why tea paerlt love to hate. the big shots telling them they're amateurs even though they're voters. >> he talked about her character issues, you know, things she -- nutty things she said. i think someone like rove, he doesn't want a republican like that, even if there were no character issues. doesn't want a republican like that running in delaware. he wants to win elections. >> so she's fair game? >> yeah. until he wins -- >> let's go to mike castle. he lays blame for him loss to radio. here he is nailing who he thinks are the bad guys. irlove this fig i love this fight. let's listen. >> i think the misrepresentations of the lies of shawn hannity and rush limbaugh on the air were another significant part of all. this i think some of the

misrepresentations in my opponent's race were part of it as well. >> that's what it takes for a republican to tell the truth about the radio boys. think about it. think about it, mark, you don't say a word against the guys with the microphone until you lose. >> who are the two other people in the party who told the truth along the lines of mashg mike castle? senator bennett who lost the race in utah and then congressman english in south carolina. both of them, incumbents. lost the nomination fights. they have spoken out in a way different than everybody else. the republican party is lucky. what's animating the tea party, talking about the economy and spending in washington, is the exact issue that is the winning issue for the mainstream party, the establishment party. as long as they can be talking about that, then they're fine. that's why what carl did and what other remembers did in criticizing o'donnell was a huge mistake. it created all this dialogue about a fight within the republican party rather than the president's record on the economy. >> you know, this looks like a fight. tell me if i'm wrong.

you know your stuff, josh. you do. i respect you a lot. if you look forward now just project this writ large, mike castle versus chris tone o'donnell. mit ram any versus sarah palin. who is going to say this is really important to the presidency? i wouldn't want one of us being president? at what point are the big shots going to say you're not clean enough or sophisticated enough to be the leaders. we'll take your votes. none of you is going to get to be president. >> i think what's going to happen is you'll see this fight take place in 2011. and if 2011 goes like 1995 went -- >> you mean the runup. >> the radicals discredited themselves with government shutdowns and this kind of stuff, when you goat 2012. it will make a difference. >> who is actually going to make it? >> mark, when is this going to happen? when are we going to see the castle versus o'donnell race between palin and -- it looks like the tea parties have wriven off mitt romney. he was the stalking horse for

obama. they're getting help, by the way, of who's going after -- oh, pawlenti is saying you're one of the rhinos. >> there are seven people that can be the republican nominee. you have three people who are employees of fox, palin and begin rish and huckabee. then you have four governors, pawlenti, romney, daniels of indiana and haley barbour of mississippi. the four establishment figures all are going to have to starting now figure out how they deal with the tea party movement. and they're going to have to approach this race in a way that gathers the energy of the tea party movement, the way they need it but doesn't alienate the center. it's very analogous, chris, before we get all apocalyptic about it to what republicans had to do in saying 1996 with bob dole and the christian coalition and the evangelical movement. >> that worked out well, didn't it? >> but dole got the support. >> yeah, 41%. >> because he didn't do a good job of knitting it together. but his problem --

>> because he didn't believe a word of the right wings crap. he thought this supply side stuff was a joke. he told endless jokes about it before he got the nomination and then pretend he believed it. nobody believed he believed it. >> that's why -- >> he discredited himself to that point by a great degree. do you think romney is a credible tea party leader? >> i think that's a big challenge for all of them. and he culturally and i think in terms of performance sh it's a real challenge for him. but he was the first out of the gate of the seven people i named as far as i know to endorse o'donnell. and i think you're going to see him. he has been very nimble this year, more nimble than people give him credit for in figuring out the right ways to try to build the bridges. but you're not going to beat president obama if you're a tea party candidate. when i talk to people around the president, the thing that gives them the most optimism about the long-term political future of the president is they believe it is inevitable that the tea party will either nominate one of their own as the candidate to run against obama in 2012 or the

person who wins will be so beholden to the tea party that they'll lose 40 states. >> why doesn't the president begin an attack to his people? they're afraid that she can beat them in the end? >> good question. >> that's what johnson did to nixon. build them up. >> look at how well that worked out. >> it didn't work out too well. johnson had to leave and nixon won. >> i love talking to people who know their history. so do we agree the fight has begun between the regular republican party and the zoo stream, if you will, as they would see it. your thoughts, mark? that's the way they look at them. they look at them as the slow kids in the class. >> there is a -- there is a cultural and psychological divide that i think they will not bridge perfectly. they'll bridge enough to do smashingly well in the mid terms. the peril for them is if they don't have leaders who can negotiate not just for 2012 but having governed a co-equal branch that, is a real challenge. and right now, all they do, for the most part, is cast out to

the tea party. that is not a recipe for long-term success. can they get support of people they look down on? castle looks down on christine o'donnell. there is no doubt about it. >> what is really the most telling thing for me is the way they have rolled big -- not just establishment, but people who are the conservatives. it's not just the mike castles. >> you know, they go after her for not having a college degree. every time we look at a poll, you can tell who is going to win. the people without college degrees tend to win. thank you. up next, if the new republicans gain control of congress, will they force another government shutdown? by the way, how wild will it get if the tea partiers come in and take over the united states government in effect because they could if they win enough seats this november. you're watching "hardball." [ male announcer ] missing something? like 2 pairs of glasses fo$99.99 at sears optical, with bifocal lenses for just $25 more per pair. hurry in to sears optical today and don miss a thing.

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welcome back f the tea party candidates help republicans take control of congress this november, the goal is to force another government shutdown, some say, and push for investigation after investigation. to take down president obama. earl lewis joins us. this is serious business. the people heading for congress right now, some of them, on the fringe, you might argue, are intending to get in there to not just vote for lower spending or taxes or maybe even the challenge some of the agenda of the president. they want to croak it. they want to take down, take down the president, beginning with his health care plan. kill it. >> the thing we can all -- need to hope for, i think, regardless

of your ideology, is that some adult supervision will prevail and the more radical proposals like opening up the 14th amendment and tinkering around with it or trying to undue health care and going after social security aren't really going to happen. >> you call them the adults. aren't the adults cheering on the radicals? >> i don't think so. the republican senatorial committee has endorsed eight losing candidates. the tea party has been cleaning their clocks. they're a little bit baffled. >> but now they have a new board of directors, the ones running them now are the ones they tried to beat. >> hostile takeover. >> well said. here is lyn west from georgia gleefully talking about a government shutdown. let's listen. >> if government shuts down, we want you with us. what has happened in this country. we have put band aids on some things that need to be cleaned out.

it's going to take some pain for us to do the things that we got to do to right the ship. >> ann, it seems that a lot of people don't remember how messy it got back under newt gingrich and bill clinton when the government did shut down. i guess they're not worried about the libraries being closed or museums. i guess that is not too much of a threat to some of these people. >> well, it seems like a government shutdown is the kind of thing that sounds pretty good on the campaign trail, especially when democrats control everything. to go in, to embrace the party of know, to say they're going to stop it, reverse the obama era. i mean that's really obvious wla this is b you're right. there is a little bit of amnesia. it is interesting to see that dick more sis among tris saying be in the offing if republicans took over. that didn't work for republicans in the '90s. it worked in the short term. it seemed -- they seem to be blocking clinton. but in the end, they lost. so i think that it would be probably different if they did take over. i think once you're in office, there's a different imparityive to do something. i think even if it were a short

term gain from republicans, if they did, for example, take over the house, were able to shut down the government and that's not to say they would even do so given that boehner said that is not on the agenda. i think that would lay tricky groundwork for whoever the presidential conditioned date is to say, okay, fine, you're in charge of the house. what would do you as president? >> speaking of groundwork, why was that dick morris had to quick working for bill clinton. snog do with groundwork, toes? >> let's not go there. >> joe miller of alaska says he supports a government shutdown. now he's the new kid on the black. he beat markowski. >> what do you start with, health care? >> absolutely. obviously that would get vetoed. defund everything. get rid of the socialist aspects of government, not just in health care but the other entitlement areas driving us into insolvency. >> of course, you're going to have a president that's going to

veto figure anything if there i republican congress. >> you have to fund it. congress has to have an affirmative vote to do it. >> so starve them of the funds? >> absolutely. and have the courage to shut down the government if we have to. >> easterrl this is a sophistic guy. he speaks like a guy who knows what he's doing. he's not saying gee whiz, i'd like to stop the government. he has a plan. >> even smart people can overplay their plans, like f.d.r. did. >> he has an agenda of a smart guy going to win the general in alaska and the goal and promise back to alaska, i'm going to good in there and kill health care on the crib. >> and it probably tests well. but what he would soon find out if he actually tried something like that is you've got the independence, 40% of vote. they're swinging back and forth like a pendulum. they don't trust either of the parties. they're willing to change and change at a moment's notice. they abandoned obama temporarily. what they would find if they tried that stuff is they would

be swinging the other way. >> you're being skeptical. you cover the congress. let me ask you this about da darrell isa. he's on the reform committee. he is exactly where he has to be if he's new chair of that committee. they go after what -- here he is with savannah guthrie, our colleague, asking congressman isa what he'll do if he gets subpoena power, which he can dig into anything he wants to dig into to bring down this administration. let's listen. >> some people said you're the man, the white house most fears. is that fair? and what do they have to fear? >> every administration, once they become the administration, become somewhat imperial and not just on behalf of, you know, people working in the white house. but it spreads into the cabinet positions. suddenly, every problem they inharlt i inher inherited, they want to blame the predecessor but they don't want you looking to see if the change will work, whether it is a chafrpg can you believe in. he promised change.

he promised transparency. now he has cabinet officers saying, you know, please, i doan want to respond to this. let me just handle it. >> well that, was a long way around. that wasn't the most perfect bite of his commitment. i heard him many times say i'm going to use the subpoena power and nail these guys. on issues whether joe was promised a job if he didn't run for the senate. things around the edges of the law that might be worthy of a investigation he's going for the kill. >> or the bp oil spill. and if they do take over, can you envision a really long list of things they would want to investigate or have oversight on. but, you know, if you took the exact words that you just played of his and you flipped it to three years ago and it were democrats saying that they were going to do that for over republicans to have oversight, sorry, rather four years ago, to have oversight over republicans, there were a lot of democrats that were really hungry for that. i think that's one of the reasons you see voters saying, you know what? checks and balances. there are a lot of democrats in control right now. we want oversight. i think although there are democrats who will fear what kind of wrath he might unleash

if he were able to call the investigations, have subpoena power, i think for independents and republicans, that may be a welcomed change. >> i think he can discriminate between the fire brigade and the fire. some people believe using the government to get things done. some would like to jam up the works by endless investigations like the republican party that came in after world war ii. they caught one real live one. but they were out there holding a problem every day on somebody. >> that's right. and in the long run, sooner or later, richard nixon rode that pretty far. but, no, i think we're going to find out what the real appetite is for this stuff. you have a mix of pragmatists and pure i he deal ogs. we still have about 47 days. >> what went wrong last time, earl? let's talk about this now. the republicans come in and barnstorm their way in the doorment thdoor. they said we're going to do stuff much they stomped down the government. >> that's right. that's right. and the bitterness that

continues to this day was the seeds were really planted there. i mean these are the same -- ended up being the same congress that impeached the president. and many people after losing did it during the rump session. horrible behavior. >> i think we helped the voters see what they're choosing between, democrats of the progressive party to the centrist party, somewhere in that con continuum depending on what they can do. and the republican party, somewhere between conservative government and we're seeing here radical. the side show is next. you're watching "hardball." ♪

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[ female announcer ] maxwell house gives you a rich, full-flavored cup of coffee, so you can be good to the last drop. welcome back. now to the side show. a rush to judgment. down in florida, federal district court judge presiding

over a legal challenge to the health care bill. here's what rush had to say about vincent on his tuesday program. >> collide roger vincent is an avid hunter. he's an amateur taxidermist. do you know what a taxidermist is? that's right. for our liberal caller today, a taxidermist stuffs dead game. after a 2002 hunting trip during which he killed three brown bears, judge clyde roger vincent had their heads mounted over the door through which defendants have to pass to enter his courtroom. at the time judge vincent said the sight of the severed bear heads would insystem a fear of god into the accused. >> judge vincent sounds like a tough no-nonsense conservative. right? guess what? judge vincent isn't a taxidermist.

in fact, he never killed a bear. he is a plant or flower guy. so where did rush get this portrait of a gun toting, animal hunting judge? the mix-up came from a hoax on vincent's wikipedia page. they insist it came from the pensacola news journal. the editor says such material was never, ever published. rush reports, you decide. by the way, that shirt of his -- next, sarah palin's campaign. last night the ex-governor gave christine o'donnell pointers on handling the media. take a listen. >> look, miss o'donnell could be on here tonight. could be presenting herself in front of the nation. her people don't want her to be. because this is -- >> okay. i grant you that. no, i grant you that. she's going to have to learn very quickly to dismiss what some of her handlers want. remember what happened to me in the vp -- remember i used to have to sneak in my phone calls to you guys.

>> i remember getting a call from you at 11:30 on a sunday night. i thought it was a prank call. absolutely. i know. i know exactly what you're talking about. >> she's going to have to learn that very quickly. she has to dismiss that. go with her gut. get out there, speak to the american people. speak through fox news and let the independents who are tuning in to you, let them know what it is she stands for. >> wow. governor palin, you're welcome any time to come on "hardball," you know, you like it. now to tonight's big number. a nominee is sending out mailers like this one, slamming what he calls the stink of corruption in albany. old message, right? what's different about this, it actually smells. the mailers have actually been scented with a landfill odor. how many new yorker families got the momentoes? 200,000. the smell is supposed to get worse over time. he has an odd way of endearing himself to voters. 200,000 new york homes get garbage scented mail from him. tonight's hold your nose big

number. next, democrats can do better than expect philadelphia they can close the enthusiasm gap. that's a big if. that's next on "hardball." t mon, it's, "how do i make it work harder for me?" well, here are a few ways. so, that answers that question. contact a fidelity investment professional today and find out how you can get more out of your money. fidelity investments. turn here. thanks. i got the idea from general mills big g cereals. they put a white check on the top of every box to let people know that their cereals have healthy whole grain, and they're the right choice... (announcer) general mills makes getting whole grain an easy choice. just look for the white check. but basically, i'm a runner. last year. (oof).

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i'm jb julia boorstin with your economic wrap. a 22-point gain for the dow. s&p 500 down a fraction. the nasdaq up a point. investors treading water without any convincing new signs of recovery to kick things into gear. a vow by tim geithner to get tough on chinese trade and currency reform was mept met with skepticism on wall street. a slight dip in unemployment claims was off set by a slowdown in mid-atlantic manufacturing and a widening of the u.s. trade

deficit. fedex shares falling after missing on earnings expectations and announcing the 1700 layoffs. meanwhile, two big names in tech delivering earnings just after the closing bell. oracle software posting a better than expected 38% jump in profits. and blackberry maker researchgxn motion also topping expectations and raising the quarterly outlook. both companies shares are moving higher in after hours trading. that's it from cnbc, first in business world wi. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." two polls out today give us new clues about the midterm elections, now just 47 day as way. for more on the numbers, let's bring in our nbc political analyst charlie cook and the great nate silver. gentlemen, let's talk about the numbers. the mood of the country, "the

new york times"/cbs news poll shows 55% say it's time for a new person to represent them in the house of representatives. just 34% say the member deserves re-election. 55% say dump the guy or woman. an even split in the congressional ballot. i don't know if i believe this. 43% for each of the parties, democrat and republican. the perception of a republican wave looks to have taken over. 45% now expect republicans to have the house majority next year. 46% another expect to grab the senate. charlie. let me start with the first poll. do you believe that more than half the country is ready to dump its member of congress? >> i think there is certainly an anti-washington, anti-incumbent, anti-establishment mood out there. no question about it. but when you go through and you look through, say sh the 435 house races around the country, there's not more than two or three republican incumbents in the whole country that are in any real danger at all. two out of three of those are in

enemy territory districts like new orleans and hawaii. >> yeah. >> if there were an anti- -- and you look at all these primaries, where you've seen incumbents or establishment figures upset with exception of an alabama republican gubernatorial runoff, every one of them they lost to someone more conservative than they are. i would argue there's an ideological purging that is not so much anti-incumbency in the republican primaries. >> that's a gutsy statement and i like it. nate? we like to say anti-incumbent. but if you look at the evidence here, the shift is to the right. >> part of it, too, all the swing seats, the democrats now occupy because of 2006 and 2008. you don't have that many good test cases where you had a vulnerable republican incumbent. if the incouple bnt didn't retire in ohio, they are helped by having new faces in there. >> charlie, i heard for a while from different experts if you ask a person who you think is going to win, you're really

asking them who you're going to vote for in a lot of ways. it's a filter question. the strong plurality that says they think the senate and the house are going republican, does that tell that you people who normally are going to vote democrat even if they're independents are going to vote republican because they know how they're going to vote, that's why they think it's going to go to the republicans? >> i'm not fond of the handicapping questions when you ask people who do you think is going to win? most people out there have real lives and not trying to compete with nate or with me or anybody else. i don't know that those questions mean a whole lot. but when you ask them, you know, are you -- when you look at that right direction, wrong track question that you run a lot, you know, you find 30% right direction, 60% wrong track, that's a danger on the old "lost in space" show. >> charlie, i'm reading through your tea leaves today. you're probably more pronounced tonight than you've been before about the direction of this election. i think you have a stronger take on it. what is it? >> chris, i -- you and i have

known each other since 1982. i stuck my fat rear end out real far on this one. i'm just not seeing any evidence that i need to climb in off the end of the limb. i'm just, you know, if you see me backing and filling, i mean i'll do it if i think that the election is changing. man, i don't see it. >> i agree with you. i think christine o'donnell tonight was a here is, recent given bit of evidence that this country is going right and angry and righter every week. let's take a look. the tax cut issue. this is a hot one. "the new york times"/cbs poll show that 53% of the people support the president's decision to let the tax cuts expire. guess why? that's them. they find republicans with a big advantage in taxes, deficit and spending. we have the people saying they support the president's position, nate. but generally, i always believed this, you say taxes, makes people think republican. you take big spending, they think i don't like the democrats. >> it's unfamiliar issue for

democrats to try to win votes on i think. it speaks to the fact they don't have a lot else going for them really. this is the best of a weak lot. >> you mean pushing for tax fairness or helping out the middle at the expense of the rich is the best thing they have to argue for? >> they do. they're not willing to run on health care. they don't want to talk about financial reform. >> you don't think it's a big winner? >> i think it's kind of more technical, right. you might win a few seats. >> do you think the person that makes -- combined income of 150,000 dl the families both work and the husband and wife both work hard and been making up to make $150,000, do you think they're in theed into bla they're in the mood to blame the people that make $250,000? >> you know, most people, the vast majority are not rich but they sure as heck would like to be there and like it not all taken away from them if they got there. i'm not seeing that sentiment

out there. and it depends on how you word it. >> i agree. >> the thing is fit gets down to a do you think it's worth blowing the budget out by x to do -- i mean, democrats, nothing else worked. they may as well try this. nothing's worked in a year and a half. they may as well try this. >> you said do you want your tax cut extended or not? they will check yes. >> oh, yeah. >> they're not going to sit and worry about the rich or poor or anybody else or what the government's spending level is. they're going to say i want my tax cut continued. >> there are studies that people say you're rich if you make three times more than they make. so that's why $250,000, only people making $80,000 or more, so the numbers are calibrated quickly. but, you know, also you've had people that are rich that do donate a lot to campaigns and maybe in campaigns here in the northeast where you have a lot of, frankly, wealthy people. it may not help democrats as much as in the midwest. >> charlie, who wins if the tax cut doesn't go through?

does that help the democrats or republicans? >> some day in my life we may see democrats win a tax argument. but i hadn't seen it yet. >> well said. let's go to president obama. he's at 55% approve of him personally. but just 45% of the job he's doing. a lot of people say that says he's got a reservoir, a reserve of popular feeling toward him. and he can get his act together by next term. your thoughts with that? in other words, the sentiment hasn't turned against him. >> the thing is, that number is a little different. we've seen some nbc/"wall street journal" polls that showed his personal rating and his job approval rating pretty closely -- close together. it used to be a big gulf. at least in the polling i'm seeing not so much. i don't know that wide gap is out there. but you tell me what the unemployment rate is like in 2012 and what's going on in afghanistan and i'll tell you whether he's going to get re-elected or not. the. >> the sentiment doesn't matter

then? >> i think fundamentals matter. >> personal regard, nate? i think personal regard played a big part in his election. people love him, his upbringing, the way he made it, the way he spoke, how he presented himself. i like the cut of this guy. >> especially for unlikely voters, people who don't always turn out. they're not going to turn out this year, necessarily. can you make a very good case that democrats will have a comeback at some point before 2012. but one thing that might necessitate that is having lost a lot of seats this yearment a lot of the arguments about boehner seems preemptive toward 2012 when he probably will be majority leader. >> that is a pretty pathetic strategy. if you're in charge, you ought to be running the country. i think the democrats should run the country if they want to run the country and not blame the other side. thank you. up next, you've heard all the trash talk about president obama from gingrich and how he's a kenyan anti-colonial type. although i thought america was anti-colonial. are v. we forgotten?

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we're back. republicans are feeling giddy about thur chances to take the house majority this november. and john boehner the next speaker of the house. we're joined by dennis hastert. god, you're skinny, sir. what have you been doing? >> i've never been skinny in my life. >> what happened to that big wrestling coach i used to know. >> i'm getting down to weight. >> i never figured out your view of this character. newt gingrich talks like he is a tribal leader some. where he is talking about the president talking about a kenyan, a third worlder. he is calling him an anti-colonial. here's what he said, what if obama is so outside our comprehension that only if you understand kenyan abty colonial behavior can you begin to piece together his actions? that's the most accurate predictive model -- in other words, if we're going to predict the speaker of tf of the house,

should think of him as a kenyan chief or what? what kind of talk is that from an american politician? >> look, i i'm going to let it up to newt to do the philosophical theories on politics. but, you know, i think when you look at one of the problems with obama, he just hasn't been infect i effective. he needs to focus on jobs. that's what the american people are worried about. he spent too much money. >> why don't republicans focus on jobs instead of on his tribal nature? why are republicans -- you have a good case about jobs. >> you're talking about one republican, come on. >> newt was your speaker. he was your chief. if we want to get into african talk here. he was your chief. you know? and now you're saying you don't know the guy's name. >> i also succeeded him. >> why? anyway, let me ask you about your party. i have a theory, i want you to tell me about it, back in the area 60s the democrats were mad at the vietnam war. and they had to back president

johnson because he is a democrat and made him very frustrated. so the time dick nixon got into office, they say now it's my chance to explode about how much we hate bitter and so by the time that nixon got into office, time to explode of how much i hate the vietnam war. under the republicans under george w. bush the guy didn't veto a single spending bill. the republicans felt like they'd blown their record, his fiscal responsibility people, so now they're taking it out on obama. it's a delayed response of anger. that's my neary. >> i don't agree. you got a theory. newt has a theory here. i are a theory too. i think in '74 people were upset with the watergate thing and they threw nixon out and they threw republicans out p that's why they were upset. and i think in '94, there had been a huge -- under the clinton administration, been a tax increase. they'd been a tax -- >> who got their taxes increased in '93, '94? >> senior citizens on medicare. >> oh on medicare. >> big time. >> right. >> right. >> you guys, unbelievable. if any tax increase that effects everybody and i know how it

works for you guys. let me ask you this. why are republicans all of a sudden into fiscal responsibility again when they weren't under bush? >> well you know they were under bush. i was there. >> how many bills did he veto? how many bills veto? >> we didn't give him any fwoils veto because we cut them down. >> doubled the national debt. >> no paid down $550 billion in public debts. the first time that ever happened. a war, a two-front war and we had 9/11. >> yeah, okay. 9/11 is your middle part of every sentence. i understand it. i get it. in other words, 9/11's the reason -- >> come on, chris. >> for the national debt. you doubled the national debt. >> look it and now a war. >> and now you're blaming the democrats, i'm sorry. >> no, i didn't blame the democrats. i said we had a war and we had 9/11. >> okay, let's talk about john boehner. you know a lot of people are kidding to him about smoking. i think that's his decision. maybe it's a bad one but it's his decision. he looks like a golfer that just blew a putt.

he's never happy. do you have to be happy a little bit to be a leader of the political party and not always looked ticked off like boehner? >> look i think a lot of talent in the political party. boehner's served a long time there. he came in a little bit after i did. he was in leadership under newt. and came back in leadership when he knocked out roy blunt. so i think he thinks probably it's turn to be speaker but i think a lot of good, young people who will be the majority leaders and other things as well. soap you can't -- you can't -- you are to look at whole party. >> you know it's funny about the difference between republican party, you've been challenging all of my theories, hastert, mr. speaker, and you're fully entitled to. >> this is "hardball." >> i know. here's my theory the democrats kill their wounded. you're gone. if you're john kerry and lose by one state you're gone. if you're the dukakis forget about it, jimmy carter forget it. in in your party if you win an election they run you next time. i can see mitt romney being your party nominee next time.

bob dole. nixon ran five times. in other words, boehner you said it's his turn, that's so republican, to say, it's his turn. that's how you guys think. >> you know i think -- i said, i said, i think boehner thinks it's his turn. >> oh, iy. >> so we'll see what happens. >> is that -- is it romney's turn? >> you know, look it, i'm not -- i'm not in that race. we'll see. we've got good candidates too. >> but you like romney, don't you? >> sure i like romney. i like the governor from indiana. i like the governor from miss. >> i you're so regular. let me ask you, mr. speaker. mitt romney instigated, if you will, health care in massachuset massachusetts. a lot of the tea party say he started the obama thing. he was a stalking horse for socialized medicine in massachusetts. how can you run him against obama? >> look it, i'm not sure if romney's going to be the candidate. >> he's your candidate. >> well, he also did a lot of good things. well, you know, he left massachusetts with a rainy day fund. never happened before. he also did some things through

sheer force through personalities rescued the 2000 olympics in utah. >> that's true. >> which were going down the hill. and he's been a force of 500 guys. >> but not anymore, you've dropped him. >> i haven't say. i haven't dropped him. haven't made a decision yet. >> you're not with him anymore. thank you hastert, mr. speaker, welcome back to the fight. it's great to have you on. >> hey, my pleasure, great to be with you. >> if this is a pleasure we can do better. the most political event happening right now. you're watching "hardball." [ manager ] you know... i've been looking at the numbers, and i think our campus is spending too much money on printing. i'd like to put you in charge of cutting costs. calm down. i know that it is not your job. what i'm saying... excuse me? alright, fine. no, you don't have to do it. ok? [ male announcer ] notre dame knows it's better

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let me finish tonight with perhaps the most important political event happening right now. i'm referring to the peace talk, the middle east. if we get peace over there, if we settle this conflict between israel and the palestinians, if we get a two-state solution that protects israel's security and also gives national respect to the palestinians it could have historic benefits for our own country. i say it often, the real battle between east and west is takes place over the cafe tables of cairo and damascus and imman. they're the young people the arab world who are discussing and deciding their futures. do they want to study engineers here and in universities like michigan state or do they sympathize with our violent enemies? we've got win that argument. and one powerful way do it is to reclaim the peacekeeping role we've played over years in the middle east. secretary of state hillary clinton and former senator george mitchell. secretary clinton's a top american politician with a record of both strong support for israel and strong support

for a peace agreement. as she has noted, she's the first american leader to publicly advocate a palestinian state alongside a jewish state. she took some heat for it at home. but there it is. george mitchell managed to negotiate peace between the nationalists and the union sides in northern ireland a brutal undertaking that he champions courageously and relentlessly to its positive conclusion. israel has a strong leader in b.b. netanyahu. abbas said no alternative of the talks overway. a deal over jerusalem, over the terroristal border, over security, a palestinian country which can truly take its place in the region, if israel can free it was of the moral and religious burden of the millions who wish that autonomy there will be a pair of of winners in that region and we, american, will be relieved of the endless antip theof a billion islamic people who see as hostile. and antip