checking to see what happened into the vanderbilt football team. >> spanked. >> lost the vanderbilt football university team. >> it was 21-all at half-time. we played well for one-half. picking on vanderbilt football, do you go to playgrounds and beat up children. beth says she spent the weekend painting her daughter's rooms, she missed all the news on snooki and lindsay. "morning joe" starts right now. i love the way the whole media decided to accept rahm's story that he's always wanted to be mayor of chicago. he grew up in the suburbs, went back to chicago in 1999. you can google rahm emanuel and never find him saying a word about mayor of chicago until it became his lifelong ambition so

they could give him a nice excuse for leaving the white house. welcome back to "morning joe." it's been a long weekend. could they just keep us on tv 24 hours a day? >> please. >> seriously. reality. >> john and joe. >> quite a game -- quite a weekend of football games. i'm sure you all will talk about that. joe is going to explain it all to me. >> that's right. >> gender bias. >> we know it's going to happen tina. >> looked at me with destain. >> joe scarborough is going to educate me on alabama football. and you'll just -- >> alabama did great this weekend, by the way. i know you care. meanwhile, liverpool is being relegated. that's another story. did you see these threat risks in europe?

>> we'll get to that. that's at the top of the news. i wonder how that changes with the dynamic. we political writer for "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst jonathan capehart. and pulitzer prize winning author jon meacham. >> the health challenge, remember? >> right, no pants. >> shorts. >> the founder and editor and chief of "the daily beast".com, tina brown. good to have you here. from chicago, time and msnbc senior political analyst mark halperin. >> since we have mark in chicago, mark, why don't you play off the bill crystal comment, speaking as someone that doesn't understand that being mayor of chicago, if you're from chicago that's more important than being president of the united states for a lot of people. >> is it too early for me to pick a major fight with bill crystal? that was like the most misguided

thing i've heard on television. rahm has wanted him to be mayor of chicago. >> so he did it. >> why don't we go there. while we're on the topic of wam, washington's worst kept secret is official. yesterday now former white house chief of staff rahm emanuel announced he's preparing to run for mayor of chicago. he's been pounded by being a carpet bagger on this. in a video posted, emanuel said he's embarking on a tell it like it is tour of chicago where he'll visit the various neighborhoods. >> as i prepare to run for mayor, i'll spend the next few weeks visiting neighborhoods. i'm calling this the tell it like it is tour. i want to hear from you in blunt chicago terms what you think about our city. with this election we have a chance for a fresh start and a

new beginning. in nongts ahead i look forward to earning your support. leading chicago would be a great responsibility and a tremendous privilege. >> you know, listening to that, do you know how lucky i am? when i campaigned four times they didn't have hot dog stands. i would have died of a coronary. i would have had all the hot dogs -- all of the hot dog vendors votes and the heart surgeons. >> emanuel's exit from the white house provided plenty of material for "saturday night live" over the weekend. here is andy sandberg playing rahm doling out@advice for the new chief of staff, pete rouse. >> you can't cry, buddy. if you cry, it's over. if you cry, it's shawshank. i want you to have this. it's a razor blade. keep it in your mouth. hopefully you'll never have toe use it. it's still nice to feel the metal against your gums. >> i want to go home!

>> you have no home now. home is for people. but you, you're a monster. >> that's funny. oh, my goodness. it will be interesting to see how the transition to pete rouse affects sort of the tone of the white house and the dynamic there. don't know a lot about them. >> mark halperin, tell us about him? what have we learned over the weekend. >> about pete rouse? >> yes. >> he's very close to the president. this does not represent a symbolic move. the president could have brought in somebody from outside his inner circle, suggesting he's already ready to turn the page. he could have brought in somebody with his own policy portfolio. pete rouse is an extraordinarily meticulous planner, he's good at keeping seven steps ahead of the next problem. he'll be good at getting the white house to run efficiently. this doesn't represent any change in any way in terms of

policy or symbolism. i think after the midterms, the president is going to have to evaluate whether to keep pete rouse in that job or make some symbolic change. >> jon meacham, what does the white house need right now? the front page of "the new york times" suggesting republicans may not clinch this. polls out this morning showing on the senate side they're further ahead in pennsylvania, wisconsin, further ahead in colorado. if the democrats lose, what does the president need in terms of a chief of staff? >> my sense -- tina and i were talking earlier, i've been talking to businessmen over the weekend. the level of hostility toward the white house, not really the president necessarily, but toward the whole democratic establishment as represented through obama, the hostility toward him for not listening to them in their view is palpable. and i think anything -- it may be symbolic because we all know presidents can only affect these things in broad economic terms

on the margins, i think he has to give the impression that he's listening to the private sector, that he's talking to people who create the jobs. >> john, by the way, the private sector people he needs to listen to are not necessarily the republicans who voted against him anyway. but as you know, there are a lot of liberal ceos that run the most powerful companies on earth who would have never voted for john mccain and sarah palin who are now saying they're never going to vote for barack obama unless he starts listening to how you create jobs. >> this is one place where biography intersects with the substance. you hear again and again the guy never ran anything bigger than a senate office. that's the thing you hear when people really believe that their concerns aren't being received by grownups on their issues. i think the era where they used voelker, to stand behind him, that worked for the couple

months it needed to. my sense is, and to go to mark's point, if you were to bring someone from the outside, it would need to be someone in a -- where you have the opportunity with summers, someone who has built a company, has created jobs and can say i'm going to do for the country what i did for my folks. >> i think what i keep hearing from business people is not so much they expect a kind of seeming to listen to them, but they would actually would love to feel he was listening to them. when you talk to the business people, many of them have said, i really was passionate about this guy. i put my whole company behind him. i was such a passionate supporter. these are the democratic business people. they say that they've been to the white house, sometimes two and three times to meet with the president, but they feel -- they each used the same term, that he's checking the box. they feel they've brought them there to talk, but it's more of a symbolic invitation than an invitation where they're really

exchanging. there is a sense that he actually doesn't still get the need to listen to business people as opposed to just bring them in and hear them talk. >> and nothing would drive barack obama crazier than hearing that, the idea that somehow or another he doesn't understand someone else's point of view. his central point of pride is that he believes that the other person always should come out of a conversation thinking that the president understands where they're coming from. and there is a breakdown there. that's one that is, i think, for the next 2 1/2 years, the most important one to fix. >> jonathan, i won't name names, but it would shock americans if they knew the people that ran the companies that they ran, huge companies that were passionate supporters of barack obama who now say i was a fool. i cannot believe i got this excited about this guy. and it seems to me again, we're two years in.

that is all. again, bill clinton -- i repeat this. bill clinton and ronald reagan were doing worse in the polls at this point in their presidencies than is barack obama. i still think he has a very high approval rating given the misery index and all the other political factors. so i'm not writing him off. but in terms of self-correction, this seems to be a huge issue for him. >> or time of opportunity. >> i'm glad you raised this point that the guy is only just two years into a four-year term. anyone who is thinking of writing him off i think is doing themselves and the president a disservice. but, you know, i think whatever correction we're going to see come out of this white house in terms of its operations, how it relates to constituencies, how the president even thinks will be -- excuse me. it's early in the morning.

>> it's not like we signed you up for the 11:00 hour. >> the excitement of being here just built up. >> can you sense i sort of have it myself. >> in the short term pete rouse i think is going to have to hold the white house operation together, wait until what happens november 2nd. on november 3rd, this memo they've been writing since the summer in terms of how to -- what they're going to do in the new reality -- excuse me -- you guys talk. i have to go take care of this. >> you clear your throat. we'll go to mark halperin right now. >> joe, i tell you three reasons why i think this bad relation shim between the president and the white house and the business community is only going to get worse in the short term. we talked about it before. you cannot overstate how pervasive this is and how intense it is. one is rahm emanuel is one of the few people in the administration who understood from his clinton years how important it was to keep business on board, and he worked at it. his absence means there's one

fewer voice arguing for that. two, you'll have a lot of donations in the next month going from the business community to republicans as they start to bet on the likelihood that republicans become the majority. that will be noticed in the white house. that will exacerbate their anger and frustration in the business community. finally, the way the white house is trying to rev up the base which they need to do to save some of the seats is to go after business, after fat cats and wall street. that's going to exacerbate things, too. i think over the next month the president is going to dig a deeper hole on what i think is one of his biggest problems, trying to rebuild trust between him and business. >> by the way, mika, i'm glad mark brought up about that third point about bashing fat cats as we go towards elections. that's one thing business owners understand. they understand pr. they don't understand that he goes out and says the bankers are bad -- does it make their life easier? no. does it embarrass them around their peers for supporting barack obama?

yes. they have pr problems. their thing is bash us all you want, demagogue, be a populist. at the end of the day do things that will create jobs. that will help you. that will help us. somehow barack obama doesn't understand that if he helps the people that hire people, he's not only helping them, he's helping himself, helping the country, helping put people back to work. there's a fundamental disconnect that he needs to link up. >> i actually wish he -- if this is the case, would explain more to people or perhaps some of the top women running the economy would do it, explain why maybe this is harder than it looks. why you're trying to create a system that doesn't break down again. you're trying to create a system that isn't driven by greed and then ultimately ravaged by it and you're trying to create a system that then flourishes within that. i would venture to say it's a little harder than it looks. maybe that's why we've had a bumpy ride. >> i disagree actually. >> i think one of the problems

is lumping all business together as well. i think obviously everybody understands the bashing of the wall street fat cat rhetoric because, let's face it, they deserved it. but at the same time there's a whole bunch of other business people out there who are just trying to run therapy small businesses, entrepreneurs and so on who are really pro obama, and they're feeling left out in the cold. they don't feel any link. you're absolutely right about losing rahm is an issue now. at least rahm seemed to be a guy who got it in terms of -- >> i think, mika, barack obama may be making this too difficult. it may be because he's never run a small business or never run a corporation. he doesn't understand how simple it is. i've heard the same thing from bagel shop owners as i've heard from people running the largest companies in the world. and it is this, i've got this money. i got hammered a year ago. do i invest this money in my company and create new jobs? because the demand is probably

going to be out there. or do i hold it? let's see. what's health care going to look like in a year? what are taxes going to look like in a year? what are regulations going to look like? i'm going to keep holding this money. i've heard that -- this is important. >> it really is. >> i've heard that now for a year from business owners, whether they have three people working for them or 30,000 people working for them. people are frozen on the sidelines that have money to put back into the economy because barack obama has created, by his lack of focus and some of his legislation indecision. there's a great unknown out there, jon meacham. i saw you -- >> that's exactly -- >> we've all heard it repeatedly. >> the phrase you hear, also, there can be a private sector stimulus here. there's a lot of cash that's holding back because of the unknown, particularly on the taxes i think. people just don't know what

they're going to do. >> we have companies like mcdonald's -- remind me to tell you the story. we'll pull it up. 30,000 employees you mentioned, for example, i think they're considering getting rid of health care for their employees because they don't like the way the plan looks as they look ahead. we'll pull it up. that's stunning given their contribution. >> no, that's not stunning actually, mika. that is quite predictable because we heard while everybody was trying to jam health care down the throats of americans, barack obama's health care plan last year, the media wasn't picking this up. i heard one corporate leader after another say, you know what, if he passes this thing, he's going to put us in a position to drop insurance two, three, four, five years. you know why they didn't listen? they didn't listen because they thought they were smarter than people who create jobs. in the end, the people who create jobs are paid to grow their company, create jobs and succeed. by the way, if they had a business leader in the white

house during the health care debacle, it wouldn't have been a health care debacle. this is the final thing i'm eve going to say all day, i swear. there are a lot of progressive ceos out there, a lot of people who like making lots of money and helping lots of people and loved barack obama. but for some reason, he didn't listen to them either. that's all i'm going to say. >> the log jam in congress. they're so turn off, business people who will effective people, they want to see action. it's going to have to go outside washington, all the action we see politically in my view. >> what other stories are you looking at today? >> coming up next, the latest on the travel warnings for americans traveling abroad. why the democrats hurricane could be downgraded from category 5 to category 4.

mike allen has details next in the politico playbook. a fresh insult from iranian president mahmoud ahmadinejad to start your week. >> sort of a modern version of "we will bury you" from khrushchev. the giants taking on undefeated chicago. complete highlights coming up. first bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill? >> good morning everyone. hope you had a nice weekend. the clouds have moved in. a dearry forecast through much of the week. taking a look at the maps here. temperatures only in the 50s. storm system is going to linger off the coast pretty much all week long. that's going to mean windy, rainy conditions. you look at the radar. the green is all the rain. it's hit and miss, not like the flooding rains of last week. in and out of a lot of our big cities. washington, d.c. right now, light rain around the beltway. as we go further to the north, philly is getting a break for the morning commute. new york city, also notice

scattered showers are moving out. maybe you'll get lucky now. later on today more rain likely. final stop up in boston, light rain continues as you head north of the city. forecast today, it's cool, it's cloudy. as i said, it's going to stay like this all week long. middle of the country looks great. southeast, no travel trouble. a nice day around the country unless you're in the mid atlantic. that's a look at washington, d.c. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

on friday the white house released rahm emanuel back into the wild. speculation is emanuel is returning to chicago to run for mayor. there are many questions facing

his campaign, the biggest being can he kiss a baby without it bursting into flames. president obama has been traveling the country and engaging voters in a series of back yard chalths. he was going to do front yard chats but then you get the foreclosure sign in the pictures. >> oh, my. getting good. 23 past the hour. are you still chewing? i'll handle the papers. >> by the warks i think that's a great idea, the back yard tours. he is so good -- get him out of the white house. >> he can do it. he really can. >> get him away from the teleprompter. get him talking to people. i know this sounds naive. put a smile on your face. everybody knows the republicans have been attacking you for two years. attacking them back is not going to win votes. the economy is bad. >> that's what i've been excited about; that he's been going to back yards and the town halls.

forget all the people in the middle reporting on it and yammering about it. talk to people and get a sense for what the american people feel. >> mika and i are on the side of the yammering. >> you get so bubblized in the white house, too. even though this is phony, the back yard chats in a way, i do think something gets through. >> i like it. it's good for him. >> the woman who asked him the question, she did nor good than a lot of us have done in years. >> i think so. >> let's take a look at the morning papers. we'll start with usa today. front page news across the country, the state department urging americans traveling in europe to be on guard against potential terror attacks. yesterday's alert which is a step below a formal warning stopped short of identifying any particular countries that people should avoid. in congress, a step back for women is looming. independent analysts predict the

number of women in congress will decline for the first time in three decades. >> they're more secretive than ever about where the money is coming from. >> the denver post, voters voice dissatisfaction. barack obama won in colorado in 2008 with 53% of the vote. but now the same percentage of the state's likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of him as president. "san francisco chronicle," play-offs, the giants clinch a spot in the postseason beating san diego in a last game of the season. and the braves got in. bobby cox in his final year got in the final day of the season. let us say really quickly since willie is not here we can get away with it, the boston red sox. let's congratulate the sox. they won 89 games despite the fact they were injured all year. >> i love the red sox. >> congratulations to the red

sox. >> absolutely. we'll go to politico now. >> no. >> no love at all? >> i had an 8-year-old in tears at 1:30 on saturday morning because of the end of game two, that doubleheader. maybe he's picked the wrong team. maybe he has. >> your son did not choose wisely. >> he has time to recover. >> go to fenway, we'll teach him better. we'll go to mike allen with politico. good morning. >> good morning. >> he says happy friday. it's not friday. >> happy monday! have a great week. >> mike, let's talk about the midterm elections. "the new york times" yesterday saying republicans may not do as well as originally suggested.

democrats also singing a different tune about the midterm election. what's crossing their mind right now? there has gotten to be a tulip craze in predictions about how bad things were going to be. dick morris said democrats could lose 80 seats, twice the number republicans would need to get the majority. no one is saying it's going to be a good night for democrats. what democrats are telling us is that a lot of their tough races have stabilized, are tightening. especially look at the senate races. illinois, california, washington, those were all looking bad for democrats. they're now all in the hunt on those. they say if you look at their most important metrics which are internal polls, national polls on the generic, fund-raising, grassroots efforts, all that sort of thing, all those are looking better for democrats. >> about three weeks ago we sensed a return to the republican party, the polls showed it about a week later, huge gains by republicans. are we all sensing a bit of a turn back, maybe an early

buyers' remorse, people thinking, well, maybe we're not so sure we're ready to let the republicans run washington? >> a billing part of it is is that democrats are tuning in. it was republicans, people mad at the system employee ating that huge en thus a.m. as gap we saw all through the primaries. as much as ten-point advantage for republicans. that's collapsed. all during september gallop showed basically republicans and democrats even in the poll. democrats are back in the game. they still know they have a better chance of losing the house. they're not looking at doomsday. >> grim prospects. tina, part of that a lot of times is you have one party saying i'm disgusted. i'm not going to get involved. wait, the other party may run washington? maybe there's a refocusing by democratic groups. >> we today in "the daily beast," we've launched our election or actional. we have wise windows technology scraping all the blog's

websites, twitter, everything to see how the buzz is forming up for different candidates. what we're showing is, on christine o'donnell, although there's so much buzz about her, 10% -- she has a 10% chance of winning. the positive feeling about coons is much greater than her. >> interesting. all right. >> that's fascinating. >> we have interesting must-reads coming up. >> frank ridge wrote about christine o'donnell. >> friedman had an interesting one. good ones coming up. mike allen, thank you slr much. sports is next according to a shift at the top of the college football polls. we'll bring in special guest and tim tebow admirer gary danielson. you can always listen to sirius channel 90 xm channel 120. what's around the corner is one of life's great questions.

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welcome back to "morning joe." 33 past the hour. live look at capitol hill. the sun has yet to come up. it's early. quick look at the news now.

rutgers university held a vigil for tyler clementi, the 18-year-old fresh man who took his life after his sexual encounter with another man was streamed online. rutgers president called the vigil an opportunity for students and staff to reaffirm their commitment to civility, compassion and respect. his roommate and another student were charged with two counts of invasion of privacy to broadcast the incident. we have everyone across the set literally chilled. >> this is a terrible, terrible thing, what happened to tyler clementi. there's a story in "the new york times" today. i have a piece out on "the washington post" post partisan, we have to learn from these suicides of gay youths that have been happening, over the last month, there have been nine, nine since july, most of them in the last week of september.

and i cataloged them and lots of other people have cataloged them from as young as 13, kids hanging themselves, shooting themselves because they've been bullied because they're gay or perceived to be gay at school. >> the statement put out by the family is incredible. i won't try to characterize it because i won't do a good job. they talk about the loss of their son and how they hope it makes the world a better place when it comes to exactly this and civility and respect. >> it's also about the cruelty of this culture of the online exposure culture. it's sad enough and so sad about this boy, but also there's a cruelty to all this exposure. it's not just the gay aspect. it's all of it. they're all too cruel to each other, the way they stick this stuff on walls about people. it hurts. >> they're all too cruel. but kids who are gay, lesbian,

bisexual, transgender, questioning are under enormous pressure. the bullying and harassment that go through in school been unbaeshlt. there's a series, a video series of people talking to the camera, talking to young people saying, it gets better. trying to get them to see that even though things are bad right now, things will get better. it's so sad that people -- kids are taking their lives before they've even had a chance to live them. >> that's something we certainly need to reflect on, no doubt about it. as you said, tina, more generally. the lack of civility. i loved the statement that you read about the values of civility, and that starts here. that starts on tv, reality tv shows. we don't elevate civility anymore in this society. >> peggy was talking about that

on friday. >> civility is denigrateded in this society. whether it's "the jersey shore." they don't have the mtv "real world" anymore. meacham is young. i'm sure he's seen it. that's why i was not shocked in particular that people were this hateful to this poor young man because that's what they see every night on reality tv. that's what gets the laugh, that's what draws the highest audiences. we are teaching our children to be crude, to be rude. >> and to be proud about it and transparent about it. there are no lines anymore. >> this will make you famous. >> it will make you rich and famous and you'll be reward fd you act disgusting. >> peggy was talking about a reality show during the break on friday, the most crude act, someone was about to get married did some crude act. this was the focal point of the

reality show. we wonder why our kids have no lines as to what's okay to put out there and what's not. >> by the way, speaking of having no lines an being crude, time to bring on gary danielson. >> i'm joking. >> that's a terrible thing to say. >> cbs sports analyst and former nfl quarterback gary danielson. gary is a fan of the show, watches every day. a wonderful, wonderful man. he called me up last year when i was making fun of him about this tim tebow love. he said, knock it off. you're embarrassing me in front of my friends. >> now that tebow is safely in the nfl, i love your broadcast. you are the best. what happened in tuscaloosa? i was going to go. had to stay up here for work reasons. i didn't recognize the florida gators. >> let me start by giving you a

weak sin synopsis of tebow's scout teamwork against the titans. they won that game and he must have done a good job of scout team quarterback. >> he must have. it was all him, man. it was all him. >> joe, you missed a good game. i'm sure you watched it on television. >> i did. were you surprised by how dominant alabama was? >> i know they're dominant. but didn't believe they were that dominant. the first goal line stand got them going i guess. i watched practice thursday, and your be loved nick save venn has recruits that are playing now and a whole wave of them being red-shirted that will be coming in the next wave. they really got it going. >> they really do. the other night i saw upshaw, 41, a guy who had hard by been called. >> the other thing about this

conference and all of college football has gotten so hot -- when i started this thing, there might have been three or four college football games a week end on tv. now you can get 30 games. it's so bad they're even putting vanderbilt on tv. >> that's horrible. that's terrible. >> so i saw by the fourth quarter there alabama players were literally rushing in. of course, florida, they're supposed to have the best offensive line in the s.e.c. alabama players were picking them up and throwing them. i'm not exaggerating. it is stunning. >> i caution you all -- i had a wonderful function sunday in birmingham. i spoke at a really nice group. boy, everybody is really full of themselves in that area about alabama football. i caution you. there are a lot of football games left. this is a pretty tough conference and there are a lot of other good teams in the

country. you have to give it -- when you have that type of dominating performance on national television, you deserve at least a couple days of crowing about it i guess. >> gary, i'm very nervous about south carolina and also very nervous about auburn. and i do mean this, my comments are more about how weak the university of florida, a team i've grown up fearing my entire life, i'm more stunned about the university of florida's weakness than alabama's success. they looked like a third tier football team. they've always been the best of the best. >> well, i still think they're the odds-on favorites forgetting into the s.e.c. championship game against alabama. they're the youngest team and they have the most transition they're going through. i wouldn't underestimate urban. if you follow his histories of florida, he'll figure out something new to bring to the table for the second half of the

year. they started out slow before. urban tweaks it and finds something to hang his had on. think about it this way, joe and everybody else that's listening. for the last five years when you combine recruiting classes in the country, the number one recruiting class is florida. the number two is alabama combined recruiting classes. they've got players there, too. they had a bad night. i'm sure they will be plenty motivated to get back and play them again in december. >> a couple quick, quick quizzes for gary danielson. >> i love quizzes. >> gary will get these. name the worst three losses in urban myers' career at university of florida? >> two of them happened in tuscaloosa, 31-3 and 31-6, something like a that. >> the third wours loss was last year in the s.e.c. championship. >> joe, i wish you could have made it. it was a great night. a great scene. and the guys from fox and friends enjoyed your two passes.

i just want to tell you. >> oh, oh, that's horrible! >> gary, next time you can give them to me. >> gary, we'll catch up with you at some point. are you going to be down in columbia this weekend? >> we are. >> i may fly down there and see you there. >> come and see us. >> gary danielson, thank you so mu much. we'll go through it with our analyst joey scarborough. the must-read op-eds. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. [ animals calling ] ♪ [ pop ]

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just looking at e-mails.

mcdonald's and the obama administration firing back at the "wall street journal" report saying they're considering dropping health insurance. apparently they say they're not. that's the story that was in the "wall street journal." tom friedman nailed it. >> third party rising. he says this, i continue to be astounded by the level of disgust with washington, d.c. and our two-party system. so much so that i'm ready to hazard a prediction barring a transformation of the democratic and republican parties there's going to be a serious third party candidate in 2012 with a serious political movement behind him or her, one definitely big enough to predict the elections outcome. there is a revolution brewing in the country, not just in the right wing but the radical center. i know of at least two seer use groups, one on the east coast and one on the west coast developing third parties to challenge the bu dew opinionly that has been presiding over our

nation's steady decline. >> mark, mika and i have been giving speeches. we hear the same thing wherever we go. the level of disgust with republicans and democrats at record levels. >> there's no question -- tom friedman is right, you're right. there's an opening there. tens of millions of americans. i still think the only person who can do this, who can exploit that opening is michael bloomberg. it still requires somebody with billions or hundreds of millions to be able to fund independent of the party structure and all the groups that raise and give money. i think there's room for michael bloomberg and in the abject someone else, but i don't know who it would be. >> you're reporting donald trump's name being tossed around in new hampshire polls. >> somebody is reporting that someone in september did a lot of polling in new hampshire asking a lot of questions about trump. the republican field is so weak and so unsettled, there's

candidates who could develop into strong ones. there's no clear front-runner the way the republicans usually have. if trump decides to run as a republican, as we've seen in the past, he knows how to get attention. i think you'll see trump and others flirt with this thing until someone emerges as a favorite on the republican side. >> jon meacham, you always talk about the party structure, how outdated it is. >> 150 years since the last significant shakeup which is no other country in the world has done it that way. one of the issues here is an 18th century institution that does, in fact, drive all of this, which is the electoral college. if you get a plurality of the popular vote, it doesn't make any difference. if you don't get 270 electoral votes, it goes to the house of representatives. if it goes to the house of representatives, the lame duck session, the old congress votes. a couple times they've done it,

they've done it by state majority. there are 50 little elections to decide who becomes president. i know from people close to mayor bloomberg they looked at this every which way that can. they can't figure out a way to get over that hump. you can get to 40%. you can probably get maybe even a little north of 40 in a popular vote. but otherwise, you're just electing whoever happens to have the house majority. >> who controls the house at that time. >> bloomberg, the washington ideas forum in washington last week was asked point-blank are you running. he said no. when asked why not, he said i can't win. >> don't you think at this point there seems to be a huge revolution is now due just in the whole structure. >> i feel like congress needs to be -- it's jamtd. it needs to be declared bankrupt and maybe go back to philadelphia and start again. this time i want to make sure some of those founding fathers

are founding mothers as well. now we're losing even more women in the senate. >> white house senior adviser valerie jarrett coming up. and former car czar steve rattner will be here. mortgage -- that would be awesome! [sarcastically] sure. like that will happen. don't just think about it. spend 10 minutes at lendingtree and save up to $272 a month. words alone aren't enough. my job is to listen to the needs and frustrations

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to let people know that their cereals have healthy whole grain, and they're the right choice... (announcer) general mills makes getting whole grain an easy choice. just look for the white check. an easy choice. got the mirrors all adjusted? you can see everything ok? just stay off the freeways, all right? i don't want you going out on those yet. and leave your phone in your purse, i don't want you texting. >> daddy... ok! ok, here you go. be careful. >> thanks dad. >> and call me--but not while you're driving. we knew this day was coming. that's why we bought a subaru. come here. come here, buddy. if there's one piece of advice

that i can give to you, it's this. everyone in washington is trying to kill you all the time. it's kill or be killed. are you ready to kill a man, pete? on the first day, you've got to walk up to the biggest congressman you can find and say, nice to meet you. when he goes to shake your hand, you stab him in the neck with a pencil and then you scream for everyone to hear, i am pete rouse but you can call me king fing congress! >> mark, come on. >> he's too good. >> is the white house going to miss rahm? >> they're going to miss him. they love pete rouse. being in chicago for 24 hours, the local news is leading with rahm emanuel. you see in the paper tons of stories about the jewish community in chicago has reservations about him. watch he how nv gates this away

from the white house. it's going to be fascinating. the biggest player in the race, but no sure thing. >> jon meacham, how important is the chief of staff? >> hugely. particularly in the day today. the only time it has had a definitive defining effect on a presidency was when jim baker and don regan switched jobs in '85. in james baker's white house it's very unreal to think of what ollie north did. >> is there a parallel to james baker in our time for a guy that knew how to run a white house from that position? >> no, just james baker. >> one-of-a-kind. >> tina brown, thank you. >> tina, thank you. tell us this exciting thing you have on "the daily beast"? >> the election oracle coming out every day now. we have it up today.

it uses a new technology that we have, wise windows which scrapes the web in every conceivable place and tells you what the buzz and the grassroots is really saying at any given moment about a candidate as opposed to what the received wisdom is. >> tina, thanks. we'll be right back with former car czar steve rattner next on "morning joe." you have more time to remember what it's really all about. enroll starting november 15. go to walmart.com for details. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ another day

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we've got 11, maybe as many

as 12 senate races in very close, very close contests. none of our republican incumbents are in any trouble. the only question is how many seats we're going to pick up. i think we're going to have a good day on november 2nd. so i don't know how high or how wide that tsunami will be, but i think it will be significant. >> we're fighting for every seat across the country with midterm election history of the president's party going back to the civil war, means the president's party loses seats. the difference between a tsunami and losing seats is the suggestion that they can take over the majority. that will not happen. >> welcome to "morning joe." a fascinating "new york times" lead story yesterday suggesting that republicans may not do as well this november as originally expected. that coming from republican sources on capitol hill. still with us, jon meacham, jonathan capehart. they're actually sitting on the pulitzer prize side of the

table. >> it's a diploma. >> a waper weight. >> if you write a book, you get a paper weight it's the world's greatest paper weight. >> from tiffany's, too. >> i don't have to worry about that one. also in chicago, mark halperin, with us onset against steve rattner, former chief adviser to president obama's auto task force as the author of a great new book "over haul, an insider's account of the obama administration's emergency rescue of the auto industry." why don't we start with your friend michael bloochl berg. you guys are close. we've been talking about the possibility for him running for president of the united states. >> a lot of people think it will be a great thing. michael bloomberg made all his money on data.

he's a data-driven guy. he's looked through the data, he comes out at a best case, you get a plurality, thrown into the house of representatives and don't have anybody there to vote for you. >> either republicans or democrats, whoever control congress elect the president. >> that's the way it works. even before you get to that, he's looked back at history and studied the third party candidates. you know whether it's john anderson, ross per wrote or teddy roosevelt. no one has really gotten anywhere in the third party business. he's not going to start unless somebody convinces him he's missing something. >> mark halperin, ross per wrote, 1992, an interesting case study. this guy was actually in first place as bill clinton went to the democratic national convention and he spontaneously come busted talking about how black panthers were scaling walls to break up his daughter's marriage and wedding and said some other really, really zain any things. the guy still ended up with over

20% of the vote. >> he spent far less than bloomberg would spend. he was exposed as a little off mentally. >> and still got 20%. >> i think if the republicans nominate someone who looks like they're captive to the tea party, if unemployment is north of 8%, given bloomberg's age and desire to be president, despite what he said, despite the institutional challenges, i think he will run. if you target $2 billion or $3 billion, it's not impossible he could win. if the country is looking for a can-do manager that can rise above partisanship, i think he could win, if the president looks like he's not up to the job. >> i think the case is strongest when you have two candidates who are both extremists, one way over on the left, one way over on the right. for a time you might have imagined something like that

happening in the republican party and the democratic party in '08, but it didn't. i don't see exactly what the case -- the case against obama would have to be one of confidence as opposed to some ideological extreme. then you say, okay, what do you want the guy to do? there's still a little thing called congress on capitol hill. it's not all baem's fault. >> the other thing is mike bloomberg is not interested in run a third party race just to send a message, just to cause a little havoc and then ultimately electing the democrat or the republican. but he's syphoned off votes from one or the other. if he gets into this race, he's in it to win. as we've already discussed, there's no real way for him to do that. >> if unemployment is 10% and if it's bloomberg/petraeus against sarah palin and whoever against obama and bloomberg spends $3

billion, who would you bet on? >> listen, $3 billion can move a lot of votes. >> it hasn't exactly moved all the votes in california. >> money doesn't buy votes. >> i chuckle because i recommend to anyone who happens to run into mayor bloomberg to say, you know what's really important, sir, is you could influence the debate. >> send a message. >> the look on the face is that of a man who got $25 billion, and the ln he has that much money and is mayor of new york and you're not. >> he does not waste time sending messages. >> no. >> let's go to part two of the steve rattner variety hour and put the book up again, if you will. it seems to me you have written, you've been inside the white house, you are a business person that understands what works and what doesn't. we've been hearing from

democratic ceos, progressive ceos, a general discussed with the obama white house. and at this point resignation that these people don't get it, they don't understand the private sector and they never will understand the private sector. until they bring a high level business person in at the top level there. >> honestly i think that's more symbolic than real. these are not people sitting in some vacuum contained room. time geithner, larry summers, rahm emanuel when he was there, they talked to the business community. i don't think you want to confuse the business community, not having somebody sitting in the white house with the business community getting what it wants. the last couple years of clinton when you had summers as treasury secretary, you had no business people in the white house and business was very happy sglp robert ruben was gone. >> i said in the last couple years. he set the table.

i think what you have going on here right now is a president who is walking a very fine line to the left which is beating him up every day on one set of issues, business people beating him up on another set of issues. and he's trying to find middle ground. >> you brought up three names, tim geithner on the fed, larry summers, professor, rahm emanuel, full-time politician, been in public service, president of the united states, a community org nearer and a professor. it does matter. the people you talk today in and day out, if you have somebody that spent their life like yourself or like michael bloomberg or, you name it, somebody that's run a very large company, it's great to always have that person in the room, is it not? >> i think it's likely they'll bring somebody in from business simply to diffuse this particular argument. but i will tell you that having sat in the room for some of

these kinds of discussions, larry summers and tim geithner can represent the business point of view very well. the president is simply not going to do everything business wants. business has to get it. simply putting a businessman in the white house isn't necessarily going to change things. >> let's go to mark halperin, this weekend's lead in "the new york times," sunday "new york times" talking about how the republican party may not be doing as well as many believe. first of all, do you think that spin from republican leaders that trying to tamp down expectations, or do you think they're really concerned? >> i think there's some concern. they're watching and they're frustrated about some races, the racer in illinois, a percentage closer than they'd like. we talked about the west coast senate races and the gubernatorial race. they've got opportunities that are new, not just the connecticut senate race and the west virginia governor senate race as well. there are house races more in play. i talked to mike huckabee yesterday. he thinks every house seat in

arkansas is in play, some held by democrats. so let's see how things play out, the money situation is going to be a little bit more equal for republicans than it's been in the last few weeks. i think right now if you stick with the most important thing, republicans are still on track to win back control of the house, and i think their chances of winning the senate back are better than they were two weeks ago, not worse. >> let's look at some of the senate races, new poll numbers out. the wisconsin senate race, i will say again, this surprises me. ron johnson, republican, ahead of russ feingold by seven points. it surprises me because russ feingold has been an independent voice. he's a progressive, but independent, he is tough. you would think his brand would sell as well as anybody's. out in colorado, a state that was considered purple going blue. just two years ago now looking more republican by the week. ken buck, a favorite of the tea party out in colorado at 50%.

michael bennett, a guy who received high marks for his performance in washington, d.c. down at 42%. that's changed a good bit. in pennsylvania, pat toomey, up to 51%, joe sestak, 42%. tell us quickly, mark, what's happening out there. >> well, again, republicans have been extraordinary disciplined. they're running on deficits, anti-obama, send a message to washington. any candidate, whether someone like russ feingold who has been in washington for a long time or if they have a d after their name, even with the increased democratic engagement, it's narrowing races but still putting willings in a strong position. in some races, pennsylvania, co-corks those are states the president won, republicans are just driving that message. and a lot of outside resources are equalizing whatever cash advantages the candidates on the democratic side have had. there's still times for things to change. right now despite "the new york times" story, i think

republicans are on the trajectory to have a very good, solid set of victories across the country. >> jon meacham, these are strong democratic candidates, feingold in wisconsin, michael bennet, who most are lauding for doing a good job. in pennsylvania, joe sestak, an admiral, all losing ground. >> a lot of good democrats lost in '94. not in florida, of course. >> you're looking at me. the reverse of that is true, too. a lot of really bad republicans somehow squeaked over the finish line. >> i remember watching the results that night in the house of a former democratic senator in washington who, as the evening went on and amber-colored liquids were being consumed, shook his head, and when the news came in that jeb had lost but w. had one, that's the first time i heard someone

say, well, that means george bush will be president. these things -- it's important. can i ask steve a question? >> sure. >> what don't we get -- you've written a whole book about this, those of us sitting on the outside who are able to look at one particular part of a picture but not necessarily have to deal with the whole picture, but right now, as things are unfolding in the white house and the administration, what's the thing that we should understand that might put this in better perspective? >> the "this" being? >> the economy. we are all saying jobs, jobs, jobs as though the president doesn't understand. >> imagine a patient who has gone through open heart surgery, quadruple bypass, the most major surgery you can imagine, he doesn't leap out of bed and start running the marathon the next day. this economy has been through the most traumatic experience in 60, 70 years. it takes time to recover. i would love to hear somebody

sensible tell me what policies he should be following. you hear stuff about cut taxes and close the deficit simultaneously. none of it makes any sense. we're in a tough, slow recovery and i do believe that virtually all of what could be done is being done. so i don't think there's anything you don't get. i just think we're in a tough economic situation and we've got to give it a little bit of time. >> what's the human toll on the chatter that is -- how much of the criticism outside filters in? >> i think they're intensely aware of the criticism outside. i think it gets back to rahm emanuel's favorite saying. this is not the brooks kings institution or the aspen institute. tell us in real practical terms, in the real world of politics with an election, with congress, what is it you want us to do? what are we missing? what policy do you want that we're not pursuing? >> it's not the brookings institute? >> it certainly is. >> this white house, the bush

white house always said bush didn't love to tell people he didn't read papers, he didn't watch tv. and i think george w. bush did find, and i'm not knocking him, but sort of found his happy place at night watching espn, watching sports center. that's how he zoned out of everything. you get the sense that barack obama and this administration doesn't work that way, that maybe some of that chatter does get in there a little more and irritates him a little more. in fact, he brings it up. >> irritates him. but i don't know what he does when he goes home at night. he's intensely aware of what's being said and done in there. he's not a guy who lives in a hermetically sealed room. i think this idea that you want to bring all these different viewpoints into the white house and makes it into some oxford union debating society misses the point. he knows what's going on. he's picked people who embody his fill ol os fee. i think that's his right.

>> let's say a new president gets sworn in january 20th, 2013 and he came to you and said, i'm going to get into the office at 6:00 in the morning and work until 7:00 at night and then when i go up to the personal quarters at night, what should i do? watch news or sports center? what would you tell him? >> watch sports center, but check the headlines. i think presidents who find a way to shut down for a little while do well. fdr had a very complicated -- obviously he couldn't move. so he played solitary. >> did he -- he shut down. >> as steve is saying about president obama, he was intensely aware of what was going on. he was a newspaper editor at harvard and jfk relaxed in a different way. >> yes, he did. >> lbj did not shut down.

>> no. neither didn't carteder and i don't think president clinton did. >> bill clinton didn't either. not always good. >> not always good. then we would make an argument that, well, they don't care what the country thinks and all that. >> the president playing golf is not a bad thing. i never thought it was a bad thing. >> i've said time and again, even though i couldn't play that much golf or i'd go crazy, whatever gets you through the night -- >> if a president needs to hit a golf ball for five hours a weekend to be recharged, do it. do it. >> steve, stay with us. when we come back, the white house begins the week with a new chief of staff. we'll bring in nbc news political director chuck todd. up next, obama versus progressives, why the president is facing resistance from the left. we'll bring in the founder of the website firedoglake. first, here is bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> joe, we're looking at airport

delays. the rain is not that heavy. the wind and low clouds are causing problems, two-hour delays going into philadelphia. laguardia, delays are building u. probably worse during the day today. take the train if you can. the rainfall in d.c. has been on and off all morning log. it continues along the i-95 corridor from d.c. nord warth toward philadelphia. the rain will return to new york city about mid morning. boston, on and off rain all morning long. this is going to be a dreary beginning to our october. we won't see the sunshine in many locations until thursday or friday. here is today, here is tuesday. even as we go into wednesday, more or less the same type forecast. the opposite of that is the middle of the country to the southeast where it's gorgeous. congratulations. you're watching "morning joe" on this monday. we're brood by starbucks. [ advisor 1 ] what do you see yourself doing one week,

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some big political news. white house chief of staff rahm emanuel announced today he is leaving to run for mayor of chicago. he said it won't be easy to say good-bye to obama, and voters were like, oh, it's easier than you think. >> the founder of firedoglake.com, jane hampshire. last week president obama expressed what you might call disappointment over the democratic base this election season. jane writes for the "huffinigton post," quote, what obama is facing which other presidents have not is moment by moment online documentation of the distance between his words and actions by issue advocates on

his own side. thanks form being with us. are you surprised the white house came out and attacked you by name? >> i think they attack bloggers, yes. that's kind of surprising. i think that indicates they pay way too much attention. >> it was you, glenn greenwald and a third name. >> i think some people have been privately expressing those names. i don't know why they decided this was a good idea by any means. it just handed a bigger m megaphone. >> explain to us. if barack obama is being called a fascist and marxist and socialist and communist by the far right and independents are abandoning him in droves, you would think he's got to be doing some things that you would like,

right? how could you and glenn beck be angry with barack obama? >> well, you know, it's not the idea that, you know, if you're pleasing nobody, you're doing something right, how would we know if you were doing everything wrong? it's not so much that. if you look at, say, the hispanic vote, there's been a 19-point shift since july from democrats to republicans according to gallup poll. you're talking about the party that passed the arizona law. they feel very let down and feel incredibly betrayed by the fact that they put baem over the top in three key states. florida, nevada, colorado, one other. they showed up for him and they never took up comprehensive immigration. >> what would you have him do that he's not doing? my bigger point is he can't be too far left and too far right at the same time. this guy is getting hammered by all sides. >> clearly i don't think that the idea that obama as a

socialist and marxist oh oat these kind of incoherent. they're in plain opposition. when you're talking about substantive policy, you all the bill nars -- there's a big article in "the new york times" that those who largely funded the 2008 are sitting this one out. >> as far as substance goes, what has he done wrong? >> i think he's done a few things wrong. when you're looking at the fact that he's trying to play whose responsibility is it on ending don't ask don't tell, people feel like they haven't been told the truth. joe biden went on rachel maddow and said, look, we can't do this, we can't suspend don't ask don't tell discharges pending the pentagon policy review. we did it to trade for the votes in the senate. we have the votes in the senate right now. it went up and it failed. either they got played or biden wasn't telling the truth. regardless, obama has the power today to suspend don't ask don't

tell discharges. he's not doing it. people who will very passionate about gay rights are saying yourks told us you support this, but your actions aren't matching up with your words. >> what's another issue? >> he could have passed the dream act when they first came in. that's the young students being deported. that's part of the comprehension immigration bill. he had republican support at that time. orrin hatch was a co-sponsor. they decided to punt on it. now you have the hispanic community who are engaged. 19-point shift to the people who passed the arizona law. >> what about health care reform? democrats say that's the biggest thing that's happened in the past generation when it comes to legislation. >> we actually did polling around the first of the year that showed that democrats in swing districts, voting for this health care bill, would take out the party, that people did not -- were not ready to accept this health care bill that forces people to pay money to

private insurance companies that are unregulated and guaranteed monopolies. they're not going to do it. it would take out the party. they decided to pass it anyway. rahm emanuel and i, not my favorite person, we were on the same side saying pass a strip down bill that would help as many people at a fraction of the cost and they didn't want to do it. >> what's the one thing the president can do to win you back? >> i would say end the suspensions on don't ask don't tell. the cat food commission is getting ready to come back and cut social security benefits in order to be able to compete with bloomberg and say to obama, cut the deficit. so people are really concerned about that. that's a piece of that. if he said tomorrow, we're not going to touch that, i think people would be really happy. >> if the election were held today, would you want democrats to maintain control of the house and the senate? >> absolutely. i've raised millions for democratic candidates. we've put in thousands of phone calls and will. >> jane, thank you so much for

being here. we greatly appreciate it. when we come back, we'll be reviewing the nfl season and also valerie jarrett is going to be with us straight ahead. it's work through the grime and the muck, month. tow and pull without getting stuck month. sweat every day to make an honest buck...month. and if you're gonna try and do

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dwight eisenhower: in the goodness of time all people will come to live together in a peace guaranteed. ♪ you may say i'm a dreamer ♪ ♪ but i'm not the only one ♪ - ♪ i hope someday... - good night, baby. ♪ ...you'll join us ♪ and the world will be as one. ♪ announcer: together. we are the human network. cisco. thanks. i got the idea from general mills big g cereals. they put a white check on the top of every box to let people know that their cereals have healthy whole grain, and they're the right choice... (announcer) general mills makes getting whole grain an easy choice. just look for the white check.

oh, my god. this is horrible. >> no. thank god. >> i look around this table and i ask, does anybody here know anything about football? rattner goes, ah. look at jon meacham. >> what? >> he's reading, and he writes books. and then you get jonathan capehart, said fashion week i can help you. so actually, mika, i think this may be the first time that you know more about football than anybody at the table other than myself. >> i'm going to learn more about football without being insulted because i brought on someone who looks a little like you, sounds a little like you but is more polite. joins us now by phone, "morning joe" senior football analyst joey scarborough. good morning. >> good morning. how is everything going? >> not really well for me, josie. i have somehow surrounded myself

with incompetence when it comes to the most popular game in america, nfl football. >> that's baseball. >> it's unfortunate. it's just going to get worse. >> it is going to get worse. let's go through the games. this is a great excuse to show highlights, joey. yesterday i said i couldn't believe that the eagles traded their quarterback in their division to the redskins. they did it. donovan mcnabb got revenge. great game. >> yeah. it was an emotional day for him. he said he was surprised by the unexpected standing ovation and choked him up. but it was weird. philly fans got to see the game manager mike shanahan turned him into after a decade of leading an aggressive pass offense, used to be constantly forced to make dynamic plays. but the approach really worked. the skins pounded the ball. clinton portis and ryan terrain

were able to dominate the line. >> we're looking at michael vick. vic got pounded, out of the game, hurt. but a great game. by the way, mika, just so you know, philadelphia fans are usually so rude that they boo santa claus. do they not boo santa claus? they actually cheered yesterday for donovan mcnabb, really nice movement. >> the ravens beat the steelers. t.j., our director wants you to punch it up. do you have anymore energy, joey? i know it's 6:30. >> he's in college. >> i'm on 11 right now. >> so joey in your own underspoken way. >> is that the 11th beer? >> the steelers against the ravens, why is this important? >> the steelers were extremely close to making it through the season undefeated and got caught up in that final drive, flacco showed a great deal of poise.

weapons on offense for the first time. they undoubtedly made flacco more comfortable. we've been hearing for five years that the ravens are going to finally turn it over and be elite on the other side of the ball. but this time it finally looks like it might happen. >> might just happen. what about the jets and the bills? we made fun of the jets in preseason because of the hype, the hype. don't believe the hype or actually are the jets for real? >> i mean, they beat a dolphins team that i think is a lot better than people give them credit for. they have to be heading the division. yesterday they rolled over the bills who have a good chance of going 0-16. let's not read into it too much. we saw vintage performance from ladainian tomlinson. the jets combined for 250 yards exposing one of the many, many weaknesses on an awful bills team. >> the jets looking good right now.

finally the other new york team, after a pathetic performance last week, the giants went to chicago and beat the undefeated bears 17-3. >> that is one of the ugliest games i've ever seen. i said why are al michaels and cris collinsworth calling this jv football game? >> it was horrible. >> it was an ugly game. so many mental mistakes on both sides of the ball. jay cutler got concussed in the first half. giants made it easy on themselves in the first half and held on in the second. >> i tell you what, very excitable. >> i actually think the next alabama game, i'd like to go and sit with joey. it would be nice, if he'd have me. >> would you have mika, joey? >> i don't know how good of an idea that is. it's a pretty vicious student section.

>> excuse me? >> pretty rough student section. >> okay. he said no. >> i think that was a no. >> i think that's a no. joey, thanks a lot. >> it's 6:30 in tuscaloosa, alabama. that is joey at 11:00. >> he will not have me. i guess it's just a club. all right. chuck todd is next on "morning joe." at northern trust, we understand...

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i love the way the whole media decided to accept rahm's

story that he's always wanted to be mayor of chicago. grew up in the suburbs went to college in new york, back to chicago in 1989. i bet you can google him and not hear him ever saying a word ability being mayor of chicago. >> with us now, nbc news political director chuck todd and host of "the daily rundown." mark halperin earlier said that was ridiculous. we heard he wanted to be speaker of the house. >> right. >> then i guess, has he always wanted to be mayor of chicago? >> he wants to run something. there's no doubt he wanted to run something. when he was in the house, the ambition was to be that. when he made the decision to leave the house, the am bipgs changed to chicago. i think, look, when he was in the house, absolutely. he saw himself as the next guy. >> obama didn't want him -- bill crystal suggesting he was pushed out. barack obama didn't want him to leave before the midterm, did

he? >> bill is somebody who -- he knows how to get some attention sometimes with various takes. i think this is one of those times. bill i think is a very, very smart political analyst. on this one i think he's misreading it. >> so "the new york times" article yesterday suggesting the republicans may not be doing as well as once expected. what's your take on that story? that's the big political story. >> no. i would say this, it's "morning joe" so i can say this. it's sphincter tightening time. >> i'm not exactly sure what you mean by saying you can say that on "morning joe." i think that's the first time that word has been used. >> i want to be able to set the bar. meaning this. it's october. for the last two months, the challengers, in this case the republicans, had basically owned the districts. they're the one that is have been there every day, going to every rotary club dinner, every pancake flipping thing.

the incumbents have been going back and forth and back and forth. now it's sort of the empire strikes back where the incumbents are back. they're running now. they've been running their negative ads for two, three weeks. guess what? they're having an effect because you have a domination of two things, democratic base voters are waking up and, two, the negative ads are starting to plant seeds of doubt in the swing voters about the other. so now everything is closing, and so, sure, this is the -- the question is is it a closing that is natural that happens in every election cycle or can democrats go from 42 to 46 and then from 46 to 50? >> let's talk about numbers. we heard 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 seats. >> i was talking about percentages of the votes. >> i'm talking about seats right now. charlie cook is maybe at 32, 33, 34 hard seats. that doesn't get them from they need to be. >> no. but you have different buckets.

i have three buckets. the first is the 25 seats that the democrats hold that they shouldn't. these is the wave seats they got in '06. >> they'll lose those. >> those were going to be gone -- >> perriello. >> right. you can pick them off. under normal circumstances it would be an alan grayson in florida. he is a special case. my point is it's those type of seats. they're lean republican districts. the second bucket are swing seats in areas that in presidential years democrats have a slight advantage. in midterm years republicans seem to have a slight advantage. my feeling is to get from 25 to 40 and to get from 25 to 50 is pretty much the same thing. if they start being able to win that second bucket, then the third bucket of seats comes very easily which is why you see

those folks with their ranges, charlie and stu in particular, it's more likely to be 50 to 55 than in the 30 to 40 range. if there's a wave, they all go. >> mark halperin, we were just talking about this earlier where jon meacham suggested shock on election night in 1994 that people like me could actually get elected. that happens in wave elections. i remember going out when i found out. the last poll we showed the friday before, i was ahead like 50.5 to 49.5, and that night i won with 62% of the vote. i walked out on stage. somebody said, hey, we just won the house. i said, you mean the senate? they said no, you won the house. >> you were shocked, too? >> i was shocked, stunned and deeply saddened. i wanted to scream as a minority for two years. mark halperin, i guess that's the big question here. is it going to be a wave election? "the times" suggested yesterday maybe not. >> there's a lot going on.

a lot of different variables moving around and individual races that don't fit with the national pattern. chuck did a very good job of describing this natural tightening, the incumbents being able to go home and campaign. clearly there are races where democratic incumbents were down to double digits and are now tighter. the bad economy, the anti washington sentiment, that is still the most likely factor to influence a national wave and cause some democrats unexpectedly to lose and a lot of people we're talking about in peril to lose even if the races have tightened up a little bit. >> steve, let me ask you just as a business person, do you -- would you like to see republicans take control of one of the chambers, just to have divided government? talking about efficiency, would that make it more or less efficient? your mind? >> i think it makes it less efficient. the whole problem with congress is getting them to do what the president wants when he has a majority. imagine when he doesn't have the

majority. whether republicans take the house or not, the democrats are not going to have 60 votes in the senate, not going to have anything close to 60 votes. so everything is going to become a negotiation in the senate anyway just as it's been in the last two years to get everything done. >> whether republicans win the house or not, that that's the reality. if the republicans come up five short in the house, the practical effect is about the same. >> about the same. >> but that's a political nightmare for the white house in a weird way. they'd rather be five in the minority than five in the majority. as far as the president is concerned for his re-election. >> you've got a re-election, but before the' election you have darrell issa running that committee. that's why they want to make sure -- >> i will say '94, clinton veterans of this white house, that's their argument, anybody that was tlnt during the clinton years -- i hear the music -- says just that. subpoena power is a reason to have it. >> i will tell you this, people

that know washington, d.c., will alltel you, if you're the republican party, not talking about the guys running in the house, if you're the republican party you want to lose the house by one vote, by one vote. you get speaker nancy pelosi, you're still there. you've got harry reid and barack obama, and they have no power to get anything done. this sounds all very cynical and machiavellian and it is. but it is the reality. if republican -- give the republicans the chance to gain the house by one or lose if they want to win in '12, lose it by one. >> chuck todd, we'll seal you on "the daily rundown." steve rattner, thank you. congratulations on the book. >> his book inspired the current number one movie at the box office. social network, author ben mezrich next. had a heart atty a completely blocked artery,

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the internet is written in ink and you published that erica albright was a bitch not before you called -- a darkroom because that's what the angry do nowadays. i was nice to you.

don't torture me for it. >> if we could just go somewhere for a minute. >> i don't want to be rude to my friends. >> okay. >> okay. good luck with your video game. >> that was the scene from the number one movie this week. the movie was based on ben mezrich's book, the accidental billionair billionaires. i had my son, who was still asleep, but my son andrew, my 19-year-old. he saw this this weekend. said it was a must-see. justin timberlake rocks. can you believe your book has been turned into this? >> it's amazing and having them do this. >> why has it taken off the way

it has? >> movie? everyone's on facebook. what they captured in this movie was the kind of shakespearen theme, this dorky kid, these old world themes of harvard and the darkness to it and him and his best friend are no longer friends anymore, so there was a lot going into this story. it's very dramatic. >> it's changed. we talked about it last week, with the poor kid that committed suicide, we talked about how social networks has changed our kids. >> the world is different now. nothing you can do about that. but there's a great line in the book and movie, the internet is written in ink and not pencil. once you put something up there, it's there forever. everyone wants to be famous. >> that's what this is about. >> older people are about privacy, it's horrible, we're

giving away too much information, but younger people want to put themselves on the internet. facebook is here to stay. it's going to grow and grow and grow and it's a great thing, too. we all love it and use it. >> what's the -- in what way has facebook changed american society? the biggest way. >> for me, in college, if you wanted to meet a girl, you go up and talk to her. friends of friends. >> i'm still a dork. >> go up to girls anymore. our actual lives are digitized because of facebook. the structure of our families is all put on the web. you see what your brother was doing. your friend was doing. everyone can find everyone very easily. it's the next stage of where we're doing. >> did he have any idea it was going to get this big?

>> no. it was a college prank. it was a project. late one night after a bad date, he drank a bunch of beers and mark zuckerberg hacked into the pictures of girls at harvard. he made it to where you could vote on how hot the girls were. the next day, if people put their own pictures up, it would be fine. he went to his best friend and said, if you put up $1,000, we can get something started. then he ended up taking his friend out. that's where the story comes? >> thanks for being here. the first time you came on if one day -- one day that i had been off three years. >> i know. i looked so forward to it and then you weren't here. >> will you come back? >> i will. >> you live in the city?

>> in boston. >> thank you so much for being with us. with us next, valerie jarrett. ♪ ♪ one, two, three, four ♪ want you and everything that you do...do ♪ ♪ it's obvious that i like you ♪ i'd go anywhere to be near you ♪ ♪ you say ♪ flip it over and replay ♪ we'll make everything okay ♪ walk together the right way ♪ do, do, do, do... ♪ i can't sleep ♪ do, do, do, do with the humana walmart- preferred prescription plan, you have more time to remember what it's really all about. enroll starting november 15. go to walmart.com for details.

come here. come here. there's one piece of advice that i can give to you, it's this. everyone in washington is trying

to kill you. all the time. and it's kill or be killed. are you ready to kill a man, pete? on the first day, you've got walk up to the biggest congressman you can find and say, nice to meet you, and when he goes to shake your hand, you stab him until the neck with a pencil and then scream for everyone to hear, i am pete rouse, but you can call me king fing kong. >> it's hysterical. >> do you think valerie does that? >> valerie's very elegant and doesn't need to do that. >> quiet power. >> we have a different strategy in terms of getting our points across. >> let me say for the record, i am very scared of both of you. jonathan meacham, jonathan

capehart and charles rogue. and with us from the white house, senior adviser to president obama, valerie jarrett. valerie, i'm heading down there after this segment to -- >> yeah, come on down, mika, we're waiting. the women's entrepreneurship forum. >> i'm going sit in the back of the room. i swear, i'm not going to say a word. >> you coming down, joe? that's terrific. >> i'm not going to say a word. >> you know we're going to call you out. >> i'll sheepishly say hello. >> you're going to regret that. >> so, valerie, was rahm as tough as saturday night live depicts? >> he was not that tough and i promise you, pete rouse never cries. >> we heard this week, oh, this

is all bolognbologna, rahm want run. chuck todd said rahm has always wanted to run something. whether it's is house or the city of chicago. this was planned for some time, right? >> i think he always wanted to be mayor of chicago. this is something he wanted to do for a long time. the president said eloquently on friday how important rahm was to this administration and how every accomplishment had rahm's help on it. the president enjoyed him as chief of staff and regretted to see him go and of course, we wish him well in chicago and mark, i hear you're in chicago, my hometown. >> valerie, i am and i'm delighted to be here and the coverage of rahm has been wall to wall and brutal. there is a lot of diversity. i understand why the president has to be laid back, but nancy pelosi endorsed rahm for mayor.

i'm wondering if this morning, you'll endorse rahm. >> i don't think anybody is interested in my choice for chicago. my focus is right here. he hasn't even announced yet. this weekend, he announced he's doing his listening tour, so we'll be watching closely from afar. >> i'm like nancy pelosi. you're not willing to endorse. >> i think the president said it best. he'll be a terrific, terrific mayor if elected. >> she's doing the people's business in washington and here you have mark trying to drag her to the hot dog stand in chicago. we are shocked and deeply saddened. >> some good hot dog stands in chicago. >> i don't know if you heard earlier, valerie, i said it was a damn good thing when i ran for congress that we didn't have hot dog stands.

>> you'd have a heart condition. >> speaking of heart conditions, mika got very upset this morning because she had heard a "wall street journal" report saying that mcdonald's was dropping health insurance for their employees. >> "the wall street journal" was wrong. we said it, more importantly. i think what was positive is kathleen sebelius responded quickly. it was flat out wrong. the president is having his prrl economic advisory board meeting here. they will announce that mcdonald's, several other companies, are going to be working with our city colleges to try to help prepare people

for real jobs. we're calling it skills for america's future, so we're delighted to be working with these private sector companies who are going to help us to ensure we are teaching folks that will it lead to real jobs at the end. tomorrow, dr. biden will be having the first ever community college forum here in the white house, so we want to focus on the importance of community colleges and adding resources to those colleges to train our folks. >> john meacham. >> hi, valerie. how are you? >> i'm good. how are you this morning? >> been here all morning. >> are you sure you're doing fine? >> okay. >> good. >> valerie, is there a time you've been on tv? >> this is the civility campaign. >> want to go to lunch? let me check my calendar. come on. ask a question. >> hi, valerie.

how are you? >> i wish i could see you guys. it's more fun when i can see you. >> now, you shout out. one of the things you've dealt with, one of the things you do here, off record, offline conversations, from business people. you know what, people at the top, understand what we're facing out here in job creating more. it is a real scriticism. >> i think what you have to recognize and you're right. i spend a lot of time talking to business leaders. we're having leaders here today where we can talk about all the steps we're taking to help them

because small businesses are growing at a very rapid pace and we want to make sure they're able to thrive and grow and hire people. we've just come through one of the worst economic times in our lifetime. it's had a ripple effect, shook up the entire business community. not just wall street, but the impact of wall street freezing up and not having capital available had a ripple effect all across main street. we're losing 750,000 jobs a month. we've pulled ourself back from the brink. had eight months of private sector job growth, but we're not where we want to be. at the same time, the president took on some problems. health care. education. you guys devoted three days last week focusing on education. community colleges today and tomorrow. and red reform. the president was taking on

issues that had been put off for too long, to focus on our long-term sustainable health. those are going to be tough to abso absorb, but we're working closely with the business community. the business round table was very concerned about health care. they now give us excellent marks on implementation. i think the president's message to the business community is we want to partner with you. today's announcement about the community colleges working hand in hand with these private sector businesses is a good example of that. one of the things we hear from the business community is people are finishing school and they don't have the skills necessary for the jobs of tomorrow. the jobs even of today. so partnering with them to figure out how we can develop those young folks who are trained appropriately is really important. we do hear the sentiment out

there. we share that frustration. we understand their challenges and we understand that we have to take on tough issues now that will help us down the line. >> real fast. in the rolling stone interview that's out with the president, had some tough words for the democratic party base. how damaging or unhelpful or helpful you think it was to have a president on record so strongly? >> i think what's really refreshing about the president is he's going to speak is truth, say what he thinks. he's saying we've got to come together and work for the future. just take the community colleges and our desire to invest both in the community colleges and provide scholarships so that college is more affordable. the republicans are talking about cutting the funding that goes to community colleges, so the president's saying over and over again, we want to boost, we

want to right our economy. we want to move it in a positive direction and republicans want to go back to the way it was two years ago. that's what got us in trouble. i think the president's message in the whole is we all need to recognize what's at stake. are we exactly where we want to be? of course not. that doesn't mean we give up and go the other direction. we have to move forward. it's telling the truth and it's refreshing. >> valerie, "the new york times" charles blow is with us and he is going to ask a question in a more seamless way. >> the president was focusing to some degree on young voters and that seems to be paying off. a quote a gallup poll saying the democrats' advantage has increased by last month by ten percentage points. does the president have any plans to focus on other

demographic parts of the base? hispani hispanics, blacks. >> absolutely. >> it seems to me the only chance they have of limiting the blood letting next month is if the president personally reaches out to these voters who we have a lot of traction with who still love this president. >> absolutely. he's going to be reaching out far and wide. he had a terrific rally in wisconsin last week. absolutely going to energize our base and he's the first to say the first 20 months, he had to focus on being president and governing and focusing on the economy each and every day. every day, the president was focusing on the economy and getting it moving again. in this next window, we're going to continue to do that, but we're also going to be campaigning and providing the contrast necessary to voters understand what's at stake and what the choices are, so yes,

he's going to be energizing. the entire country to come out and participate. these midterm election rs very important. the president may not be on the ballot, but it's important that everyone come out and vote. >> let's talk about what we're doing later today. the women's summit. finally. define for us because we're talking about women and small businesses and the lack there of. define the missing middle for us and where is there room for improveme improvement? a lot of it when it comes to women-owned businesses across the country. >> becky bank is going to be releasing a study and the findings won't be very surprising to you. it shows that women-owned businesses are growing rapidly, but they have challenges. access to capital. willingness to take risk.

and president obama, since he's been in office, has taken numerous steps to help small businesses, help women-owned businesses, move to that next step, the number of tax cut if the recovery act, the bill passed last week that will reduce the cost and enable them to move to the next step. today, we want to say even though we've done a lot that's helpful, we want to take it to the next step. have a conversation that you've been delightful to moderate for us with small businesses that have been successful with those of us working in government, to see what we can do to push it to the next step. we've accomplished a great deal for them, but we want to continue to push forward. we want to make sure the obama administration is doing everything possible to give them the trajectory they need to grow and thrive and be sustainable

over the long-term. >> i look forward to being there. >> looking forward to seeing you and your daughter. >> i've got a little girl very interested in seeing how it works behind the scenes. valerie jarrett, thank you very much. >> see you, joe. >> i have a few thoughts about christmas. our christmas plans. >> i love the civility. practicing what you preach is a key thing. >> i'm just going to pack my bags for washington. and get my stuff here and go. i got to go. we're going to have a good time. yep. all right, guys. have a good time. i'll see you later. can you read it? >> all right, coming up. are a few disloyal democrats in congress about the face the wrath of nancy pelosi?

and a new documentary looks to expose the truth behind the economic crisis two years ago. the director of "inside job," charles ferguson, will be here. but first, let's go to bill karins with a check on the forecast. not looking good at airports across the northeast. >> a little breezy, low clouds and rain. two hours in philly. one hour in the new york airports and logan only 15 minutes. dulles and reagan are doing just fine even though it has been raining in d.c. so, this is going to linger for about three days in a row. airports may be tough not just today, but tomorrow and into wednesday. here's a look at washington, d.c.'s close-up radar and baltimore. on and off rain today. forecast for the coolest day we've seen this fall. highs in the 50s. amazing how quickly you've got to pull out the winter coat. forecast around the rest of the

country looks great. southeast to the west coast. not much in the way of bad weather. the only area with nasty weather, boston to d.c. that's going to last all week. ♪ where'd you learn to do that so well. ♪ ♪ where'd you learn to do that so well. ♪ the new cadillac srx. the cadillac of crossovers. cadillac. the new standard of the world. thanks. i got the idea from general mills big g cereals. they put a white check on the top of every box to let people know that their cereals

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on saturday, the pilots safely landed after the landing gear failed to deploy properly,

but captain sully sullenberger landed several passengers without an airplane. sully, oh, yeah. >> all right, let's take a look at this morning's papers. "usa today," the state department is urging americans traveling in europe to be on guard against potential terror attacks. yesterday's alert, which is a formal warning stopped short of identifying any particular countries that americans should avoid. and "the washington post." spending five times as much on the 2010 election as the midterms of '06 and they're more secretive about where the money is coming from. the "san francisco chronicle," beating san diego in the last game of the season can which ensured that the atlanta braves and bobby cox would be making the playoffs. and now, let's go to michael

allen. mike, some democrats are taking a stand against speaker nancy pelosi and that is something that is not going unnoticed by spoker nancy pelosi. >> that's right. i guess you could tell us what happens when you run afoul from your leaders. a number of democrats have been told to keep their points to policies, but some exchangings have gotten personal. bright talked about when asked her -- he said, well, she might get sick. she might die. >> wow. >> so, these have gotten very personal, so if democrats keep control, they're still going to have pelosi as their leader.

her style is more than blatant punishment. shooting a prisoner in the backyard. if you need money, you might have trouble getting your allowance. >> that's pretty rough. >> i have this impromptu press conference that speaker pelosi had with some columnists on friday. she made it clear. do what you need to do to win your race, democrats. attack me. do what you want. i just want to win. so, if people take pot shots at her, i think she'll let it fly if it means she gets to be speaker rather than mi torty leader. it >> it is a rough season for democrats. is she going to cut them? >> president obama's been the same way. president bush as well. they don't like to have members go after them, but if it help,

they're willing to do it, so that's why you'll find president obama only going places where he's wanted and not making a fuss about all the members who would just as soon not appear with him. you've had a number of member senators governors who have not shown up when president obama's been in their state. normally, that would be a real slight. here, they're willing to look the other way just as jonathan is suggesting. >> also, the white house is planning on making education actually a wedge issue. how? >> on a conference call last night with some reporters, they were talking about how the highlight of this week is tomorrow's white house community college summit convened by dr. jill biden. one of the reporters said, wait a minute, why aren't you talking about jobs this week. the white house is making the point the education is the

economy, jobs. later today, we'll see president obama with a number of ceos announcing program skills for america's future. the gaffe of mcdonald's. they're going to have people from community colleges in, shadow their workers. >> how's it a wedge issue? >> they're going to use this to say we're actually doing something for education while house republicans are talking about it. they're using the house republicans pledge as a weapon to try to say they're being vague, we're being specific. >> how aggressive is the president going to be going into the fall elections? it seems to me we've been saying for the past year that education could be the issue that president obama and republicans joined hands on. >> right. it's been an issue where he has done a lot. his administration has shaken up with education bureaucracy.

secretary duncan might be one of the most popular cabinet members. >> thank you so much. we love having you with us. >> this is radical and i know people are going to consider me nieve for saying this, but the president's going to have to deal with republicans in january whether they take over or not. i'm not so sure that barack obama, the wedge issue guy, the attacker, makes sense because hope and change in 2008 were -- he was seen as such a positive candidate. do you think he risks looking like any other politician if he engages in a lot of slash and burn tactics? >> i think it's part of the political season. i think in the same way we were just discussing the pelosi view, look past it. people expect a bit of this coming into an election. what i feel barack obama has the

most potential to do himself good is to engage the base. so, you've already lost most white voters. they're down to like 39% approval rating for barack obama. you've lost the tea party vote. much of the independents. at this point, it's all about turnout. that means you go to your base. you speak past a lot of these issues, past the local candidates. speak a very natural message of you must come out because the alternative is worse than what we have now. it's versus what they say is potential. the base is not even registering much what's happening. i wrote this past weekend, 36% of hispanics don't even know who joe biden is. they don't know, 42% don't know that the democrats control the house of representatives.

how do you make this up to a person that doesn't know you control it, but have to hold on to it. it's that bigger, global message that me and my pals are doing things in your best interest even if you don't understand the policies or players. if he does that, the way he's attacking the young voters, they have better chance of holding more of their seats than they do now. if they go on this bigger high-rise message of this particular policy's better. the banks will loan more if i do this, that's not going to register. >> stay with us. whn we come back, erin burnett with business before the bell. at northern trust, we understand... that while you may come from the same family... you know, son, you should take up something more strenuous. you have different needs and desires. - i'm reading a book. - what's a book? so we tailor plans for individuals, featuring a range of integrated solutions.

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in delaware, they're running a witch for senate. christine o'donnell is a practicing witch and says that scientists actually have engineered mice with human brains. there is medical bases for this. take a look. >> february 24th, 1998, an expermental procedure in which

human brain cells are transferred to a mouse -- >> i'll do anything you want for 50 bucks. it's my house. >> thanks for watching. good night, america. >> she was right. christine o'donnell is right. >> oh, my god. >> there are mice with fully functioning human brains. >> she's been watching tom and jerry. i would like to thank the tea party for giving us all these entertaining candidates. i don't ever want them to go away. just don't want them to go to washington. >> what was your bill maher quote this week. didn't want to be harry krish na because she likes eating meat.

there's one a week. so, let's go now to wall street and the international superstar, erin burnett, who i saw king burnette again and i saw the queen this weekend, erin. pretty big. your parents visiting you in new york making sure you were behaving. >> they did goet to meet joe. >> empire state building, statue of liberty. joe. >> new york's biggest attraction. >> at least in body mass. not in -- any way. no, i'm not. so what was, erin, what's wall street talking about this morning? >> ben bernanke's going to be hosting a town hall with students in rhode island.

it's at 3:00 eastern. everyone's betting on whether he's going to go out and print money to buy mortgages and stimulate the economy. >> is he? >> it appears they really are going in that direction. it's close to it. but this is what might amaze you. one wall street firm said one trillion dollars of this could lift the market by 4%. we were up almost 8 in september without printing a trillion dollars. some say we're taking a big risk. you keep doing it and your marichal impact -- >> every single time, there's not a lot more the fed can do right now. let's talk about the topic that's always fascinating. me and you talking about it this morning. an oil estimate from iraq. what has happened seven years after the invasion?

>> they said overnight that they had increased their extractable oil reserves by nearly 25%. we had expected iraq had the second biggest oil se refrs in the world. they have more than iran. >> 24% boost, they are now producing more than iran. >> here's the problem. they need a lot of help to produce that oil and at this point, the u.s. companies in there, it's very cheap to get oil out of the ground in iraq. it's right up in the surface as to opposed in the gulf of mexico where it's miles and miles down. i ran the numbers. the new value of oil in iraq if these are right, is $11.6 trillion. our war has cost 1 trillion dolla

dollars. if they pay us back, we could wipe out our deficit. >> you have figured it out. >> all of a sudden, they're rich. >> it's been a scam, charles. let's just take it. >> take it on the way out. >> that makes their economy about the same size as ours. wonder why that is. >> erin burnett, international superstar. thank you so much. up next, with the financial collapse and inside job, a new documentary looks to expose that truth straight ahead. i want iran's oil. ♪

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after taking office, obama spoke of the need to reform the financial industry. >> we want a systemic risk regulator, increase capital requirements. we need a consumer financial protection agency. we need to change wall street's culture. >> but the first year, the obama administration did not enact a single major reform. >> addressing obama and quote regulatory reform, my response if it was one word would be ha. there's very little reform. >> how come? >> it's a wall street government. >> a scene from the new documentary which shows the bad behavior on wall street that led to the 2008 crisis. with us now, charles ferguson, the director. that was matt damon talking, wasn't it? >> it was. >> what's your take away from

this movie? >> it was an inside job. >> who were the players? >> wall street assisted by unfortunately, a substantial fraction of our government and the academic community. >> and you suggest that this, the people that were inside players, that caused the meltdown were still involved in the obama administration. >> they run the obama administration. immediately after the clip that you just showed, we go through a list of who runs economic policy in the obama administration. it's a very depressing list and where they come from is more depressing. chief of staff of the treasury department, a former lobbiest for goldman sachs. another guy's firm made billions by betting against mortgage securities it helped to design and one can can go on.

>> why is that? >> that's a very good question. people have said that -- i don't know mr. obama personally and wasn't involved in this process. people have told me that mr. obama, president obama, when he was elected, had very little experience. even with his own personal finances, never mind real business experience. he was sold a bill of goods by people around him that he prefers compromise. ipg it's very disappointing that after two years, he hasn't done anything about this. >> what about the idea that you want people who are understand the problem kind of on your side? in the same way the security firms hire hackers to keep out other hackers. you need someone to understand the bad behavior to preempt that

behave. do you think that's in play at all? >> might be nice to have one or two people like that in a corner somewhere, but the people who have been running policy in the administration have been people who got us into this mess, so one has to question the quality of their understanding. larry summers was deeply involved in gaining the regulation of the dreftive that caused this crisis and in 2005, the chief economist of the imf gave the first serious public warning of this crisis. ry larry summers told him he was being silly. >> you think that the government should investigate banks the way they should investigate organized crime. >> yes. >> talk about that. you think they should just rush in and like a rekha investigation. >> not rush in. go in carefully and intelligently, but we already

know that lehman brothers and several others artificially d l concealed their liableties. we already know that goldman sachs and other investment banks made tens of billions of dollars by betting against the various securities they were selling to their customers as safe. it's very, very unlikely that all those things were done without crimes being committed and not a single person has been arrested in this. >> sounds fascinating. we can't wait to watch it. thank you so much. the documentary is "inside job" and opens in theatres this friday. coming up next, somebody's asking, can you explain on twitter, your explanation not to mention the one nation rally this weekend. i will explain.

and also, roger bennett on some crazy football in england. ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] at&t and blackberry have teamed up to keep your business moving. introducing the blackberry torch. at&t. rethink possible. one month, five years after you do retire? ♪ client comes in and they have a box. and inside that box is their financial life. people wake up and realize i better start doing something. we open up that box. we organize it. and we make decisions. we really are here to help you. they look back and think, "wow. i never thought i could do this." but we've actually done it. [ male announcer ] visit ameriprise.com and put a confident retirement more within reach.

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so i've come up with some mnemonic devices to help me learn your names. hello, a "penny" saved is a "penny" earned. oh, that's 'cause fedex ground helps you save money. that's right, penny. do you know ours? heavens to betsy. dwayne the bathtub. magic wanda. yeah! what's mine? uh, you're a dan fool. oh. it's just a device, dan. you can't take it personally. yeah, i suppose. [ male announcer ] we understand. you need a partner who helps you save. fedex ground. ♪ ♪ ♪ another day ♪ another dollar ♪ daylight comes ♪ i'm on my way [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ another day ♪ another dollar ♪ working my whole life away is [ dogs barking ] ♪ the boss told me

♪ i'd get paid weakly ♪ and that's exactly [ bull lows ] ♪ how i'm paid ♪ another day ♪ another dollar ♪ working my whole life away ♪ another day ♪ another dollar ♪ daylight comes ♪ i'm on my way roger bennett's here, but before we go there, getting all these -- can you explain your decision to not mention the one-nation rally this weekend? and we have a rule here on "morning joe" that we spend our

weekends, if you hold a rally, i'm probably not going to be watching it, okay? i don't care whether it's like that thing they had a month and a half ago or this thing -- it's a weekend, i'm watching soccer or alabama football. so, "the new york times" said tens of thousands of people showed up. >> yes, there were a lot of people on the the mall. there are people there and it doesn't look like a lot, but what happened though was that the aids walk was happening at the same time. >> thank you so much and now, let's go to -- we are equal opportunity ignorers. message received. >> base was fired up. >> let's talk about what i was doing this weekend. oh, my god. why has thou forsaken me.

>> one of your teams is doing good. >> liverpool, my team, has complete lly collapsed this yea. >> they played blackball, the most rugged group of men. >> you say they're coney island. >> they look like a pup team. they make the team in "the longest yard" look like a professional squad. they have a loop money lender. >> what is wrong with liverpool? >> well, you tell me. i look to your manager, who was an old man when he started, but i have to say, he's aged over the past three weeks. it upsets me. say what you may. >> you said he was the last gentleman in england. >> he is.

because of men like that we with stood the blitz. >> you say he's reduced to standing in front of the mirror, who's the governor. >> he looks like he's got an abscess, to be honest. the real problem is that the american owners -- >> get them out. >> it's as if two englishmen took over the empire state building. >> these americans are destroying liverpool. >> it's absolutely disgusting. one man, torres, the kid, a future player. i come from liverpool. it's the most gorgeous city in the world. that guy looks like he want to get the hell out of there. >> he stayed when a lot of people thought he was going to go. he's done his time. if hicks and gel let around going to go.

chelsea dismantled arsenal. >> a one-man offensive line, just driving it. gentleman with a body of a muscle man. >> he is a monster and sutherland -- >> if nolan ryan took three kicks -- bank. alex. >> oh, my god. so, arsenal not even close. >> and chelsea's loss -- >> let's talk about man u. these guys are so old. >> they seem a little clueless. i've never seen a manchester united team. they were bad enough for me to

stop feeling sorry. a rumor to be sliding. the tampa bay buccaneers are a mediocre team in football. >> i don't care how much they lose, man u. is still the evil empire. >> they managed to pose a $190 million loss, which is a good bit of business. look at this tackle. absolutely crushing. remember him from the bruce lee style kicks? did it again. most amazing thing. not even a card. he did get dropped from the dutch team for punishment for that kick. >> won 2-1 against tony blair's favorite squad. finally, you're not going stall the clock out here. your everton, just pathetic. >> it's raining out here, but i

skipped down here like gene kelly. that is a fabulous haircut. great game. we're the most cuddly team in world sports. >> a relegation battle next week. mercy side. it's ugly. liverpool, everton. who wins? undou undoubtly, everton. i'm bill karins with your business forecast. today, on and off rain. temperatures cool, only highs in the 50s and 60s. temperatures will be cooler in the southeast are sunshine in atlanta. to the west coast, partly cloudy, mild in denver. enjoy. . sovereign of the security line.

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time to talk about what we learned. mark? >> well, joe, on the page.com my website relaunched today. people should check it out. i learned that people are quite interested in mr. trump. the feedback for that news there that people are polling his name in new hampshire has gotten a lot of attention. >> maybe mika can sing, happy birthday, mr. president. john? >> for you, politics stops friday and picked back up on monday. >> i just don't watch rallies on the mall on the weekend when soccer and alabama football is on. i'm sorry. what did you learn? >> the whole rally of 300,000 -- >> i read presidential biographies. do not watch cable news. what about you? >> until