good luck. democrats wage counterinsurgency. let's play "hardball." good evening. good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. leading off tonight, october matters. it's the final month before midterm elections and races are tightening. democrats are showing signs of life and they have new hope they'll be able to stave off catastrophe.zg7ç former democratic parent terry mcauliffe gives us his take on the state of play with 29 days to go at the top of the show. then republicans have pinned their hopes on sharron angle and her race to unseat leader harry reid. but sharron angle's been caught trashing the republican party

behind closed doors to a tea party candidate still in the race. he secretly recorded the conversation and will join us. in california, meg whitman's campaign is on the rocks after allegations she knew her longtime housekeeper was illegal. women in brown chatted about their debate in the weekend. and we'll look at races where debates may make or break candidates. plus, president obama's approval ratings have waned overall, but there's one block of voters who still support him. let me finish with a stark contrast. what it means to the democrats in country in the republicans win in november. all of that is ahead. let's check the latest polls. for that, we go to the "hardball" scoreboard. we'll start with pennsylvania, where a new marist/mcclatchy poll has republican, pat toomey up nine over democrat joe sestak. it's a similar story in colorado where buck has an eight-point lead over senator michael bennett. up seven.

in wisconsin, it's ron johnson up seven. over russ feingold. finally, to illinois and a glimmer of hope. a new chicago tribune poll as alexis giannoulias with a slight lead over mark kirk. lots of voters still undecided in that race. as you can see. we'll continue to check the "hardball" scoreboard each night leading up to november 2nd. let's right now go to the state of play with four weeks of campaigning yet to go, terry mcauliffe was chairman of the democratic national committee. and richard wolffe is an msnbc political analyst. gentlemen, thank you. lets look at this poll right now, what we call a generic who is going to control congress? the nbc's congressional ballot. nbc's latest poll has republicans at 46-43. it's within the margin of error, but look at this. but these are likely voters. look at this. 49-48 was in august, so you see a projection there, terry mcauliffe. >> i think the voters are now focusing. i think a lot of voters have let their frustration out and have seen some of these tea party candidates.

they don't like what they're hearing. president obama is now out campaigning. the folks are getting energized and they've realized they've got to vote. they've let their frustrations be known but we're getting close to election time. we have a huge cash advantage. 3-to-1 advantage on some of our top house races. the dnc just came out, 16 million bucks in september. we have more money. the president's out campaigning. >> give me a commercial to the democratic voter out there. i always kid on this show that the democrats are the last people to show up for the movies. they come up with the popcorn and the coke and all but they're about five minutes late. how do you get the democrats to get their act together this time? >> they saved this economy from going off a cliff. we got a lot of work to do. they want to repeal health care. democrats want to fight for manufacturing, health care jobs, they want to fight for green technology jobs. republicans are against all that. you have a choice. we're just beginning. we saved the economy. we've got more work to do. don't stop us in 21 days. >> richard wolffe, that's a good

argument. how come we don't hear it so loudly? >> he's the model for dnc chair if anyone's thinking of taking that job right now. >> right there, brother. >> i hear a lot of explanation at town meetings, i see the president out there trying to explain to that woman why she's out there eating franks and beans but i don't hear a strong, aggressive argument. we're better than those guys. those guys are bums. why aren't we hearing that kind of talk? >> they're trying to do that but right now they're all playing the game. it's in everyone's interest to say this race is tightening and -- >> why. >> -- i'm telling you why. number one, democrats are demolishing to feel this to still worth playing. >> shouldn't republicans want to put people to sleep? >> they want to say the race is tightening and we love the fight, so everything is tightening. but, look, this could open up again, and six points, three points, this comes down it a couple of dozen house races. that's where we're going to judge if this is success/failure. >> i've got a good argument. some democrats hope the tight races for governor.

helps gets the races in the house closer. we have california races really breaking out. i think that jerry brown will get the big break out there. he picked up a fortune cookie out there with this woman's illegal hiring. texas i'm always amazed that perry's in trouble. he talked like a -- and dress like he's from saddle road. illinois -- well that doesn't look too good for the dems. illinois doesn't look to good. florida looks very, very dicey for both sides but how will that get people to vote out in the house and vote positively for the democrats? because i hear that democrats have tougher races. they've got to win in races that voted for bush and mccain. >> we know how important the governor's races are. especially in the elections where we are today with the zero at end because it affects the redistrict which is so important. democrats understand that we've got governors because these are going to be the lines strong. you look at the first woman governor in the state of florida. bill white. >> she's a lot heavier than the other guy. right? there's more to her than the republican candidate.

>> she's a great candidate. >> yeah that's what i mean. >> and in texas -- a lot heavier i didn't know what you meant. >> no, i meant yes. >> good. >> california, i agree with you is opening it up for us. but with the democrats they've got to understand these governors are going to draw these lines. you cannot sit home. you've got it get out. people are frustrated about the economy. everybody gets it. their jobs, they're worried about their future. but now that they realize this is serious. they've seen these tea party candidates who believe that unemployment compensation's unconstitutional. >> that would be joe miller. >> that's right. >> privatize social security, medicare, medicaid. that scares people. so, you can sit back and just say i'm not going to vote or get energized and say i'm going to continue. >> give me an example of that. i'm hearing that christine o'donnell, for example, who has -- well, she apparently -- we'll show a tape in a few minutes, that said i'm a witch. she's unbelievable. i think that's going to kill her candidacy. but apparently, everybody in pennsylvania which shares the same media market in philadelphia with delaware, and now is knowing about her.

a bad form of speech there. but they know about her now and that's helping the dems get activated. >> around there but what's happening up in pittsburgh? this is where this is going to get decided, not have a and pennsylvania is going to be the real warning sign for democrats. how are those votes going to shape on the economy, how is it through? i think there could be interesting results in colorado, the new purple states, but the old democratic states the belt states, i think democrats are facing a real uphill battle. >> buffalo. the tim russert guy. the guy who wears a big jabber to a fooall game. he makes middle-middle income. he works a factory job maybe. a democratic for historic family reasons but he's voted for reagan. a reagan democrat. i look at the sestak race as tough. i look at the race in illinois and illinois looks better, but i'm looking at the race in ohio, for example, that's a tough one for you guys. >> looks strong. >> and feingold in trouble. who would have believed that he was in trouble? >> look at strickland. written him off. >> what about the senate races let's get to them.

what about the senate races? why does it look so rough for the senate? >> the economy is fast and if you look at the belt, that's where they've lost most of the jobs. i'll make this argument. the whole thing about shipping our jobs overseas, that has hurt the republicans and that's one of the reasons you've seen the democratic party in the polling. >> the democrats like -- who is the guy in -- who's the guy in kentucky? >> jack conway. >> conway keeps talking about that overseas' tax break. smart move. >> we ought to keep him here. >> here's the senate situation right now. republicans need pick up ten seats to take over to get to the 51 because the vice president would break a tie at 50 for the democrats. eight republican states are toss-ups or leading republican. if the republicans hold up all of those and pick up three democratic seats that lean their way -- north dakota, arkansas indiana -- look good for them and then win seven of the nine democratic races that are still toss-ups right now. see look at that race. they've got to win everything that we're looking at right now basically. they've got to start sweeping.

they've got no knock off blumenthal. blumenthal in connecticut, then in pennsylvania, they have to knock off sestak. and manchion who is popular. they got to beat mark feingold. knock out bennett. take out the leader harry reid. knock out boxer and murray. and only lose two in that streak. >> very tough. >> very tough for the republicans. >> great job. 70% approval rating. if he were running for governor, he'd win it in a whoop. it's the senate. >> you know why. because people are comfortable like in utah voting for democrats for governorship which is an administrative job where they don't trust the philosophy. >> is a race? >> it's culture. >> is it cute is it race? >> i think a racial element to it. >> guns? i don't think that he's connected with those voters. he ever done. didn't do that in the primaries either. and governor mansion ought to be in a much, much stronger , you

can't say that this is about his personality. and is anyone thinking that he'll have different politics if he's in the senate? something again about -- >> but no on national issues. >> sure. sure. but i think there's a -- cultural shift there when it comes to national politics. >> this blumenthal race, i've never understood. a guy with, obviously a big brain. incredible education. looks great. looks like a politician as best that you could look in a politician race. and yet straighten out his war record. i don't why he didn't say i got caught up in this because people began to say i fought over there. i did not serve in vietnam. i should have never said i did. why doesn't he do it and get it over with? i will have my reserve service discredited tonight. that's all b.s. talk. it doesn't move on with people. >> how you deal with a mistake is critical. meg whitman, on the other hand, has not dealt with her mistake at all. >> they have the same exact

problem. they're not admitting a mistake. she's a top executive -- she's a ceo with ebay. she's a genius business woman who has made billions of dollars. she knows the person working for her is illegal or not. >> how do you deal with the crisis. everyone knows politicians they're human. >> she's blaming it on her husband. >> right. >> is that smart politics for a ceo. >> no. you say that you made a mistake and this how you clean it up not by blaming other people or blaming the other campaign for leaking it. >> you and i would -- >> we'd never get by. >> she keeps the checkbook i have to tell you. do you think that jerry brown's basically lucky? how else do you explain this break of the cards? and boxer's always been lucky in california. >> listen, california is a democratic state. if you can energize the voters, if you can get them out to vote, listen the democrats are going to win. it's a great democratic state. brown has fought on the jerry brown has fought on the

principles of the party, so has barbara both. for us now we get close. i'm excited. >> bill clinton we've spent a week with him. he combines serious business with fun. he knows how to do. kennedy used to do that. nobody you puts them together. fun and serious business. in fact, politics puts it in both. he's going to campaign a lot the next couple of weeks. >> he's booked the entire time. you've seen gallup. everyone remembers. >> california, pennsylvania. >> he's everywhere. >> doing colorado, all -- >> virginia. >> i feel bad -- i don't think. >> he seems to be doing two kinds of candidates, ones loyal to him in previous races including for mrs. clinton, now secretary clinton and people he's told to help the administration. >> right, let's be clear, he gets hundreds. he can't be everywhere. he wants to help the people who helped hillary. >> you mean, he's a relationship politician? >> yeah. >> we like that. i like relation politicians. >> and he goes with the white house, says we desperately need you. where we keep the house and senate, he will go.

>> are you going to run for governor? >> i want to create a lot of jobs first. >> what a republican you are. thank you terry mcauliffe. >> all about creating jobs in the democratic party. >> sense of humor comes up with the job. >> coming up, sharon engel was the republican's pick to take on harry reid. this is a great story. apparently, she doesn't think much of the republican party either. wait'll you heart tapes. we got a guy who taped the whole conversation, which is legal. it may not be kosher but it's legal in nevada. what is it, what happens in vegas in this time will not stay in vegas. anyway we'll be back with that secret conversation with her tea party opponent. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. salesman: hi there, welcome to mi... >> save it, glengarry. now this mini has a 5-star safety rating and six airbags. only got four people. t's lose two airbags,y. now one star, and take two safegrand off the price.rbags. you man enough for that deal? >> sir, we can't remove any of the airbags - >> figured. what about this 3-year/36,000-mile no cost maintenance? ditch that. girls memorize the owner's manual, they do the upkeep. you drop a grand. who's got a pen? >> daaaad! >> fine. but 37 mpg? we'll take one that only gets 27, i pay nineteen-five. let's take this horse to market. >> deal. and i'll throw in 37 mpg.

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welcome back to "hardball." nevada senate candidate sharron angle was secretly tape recorded in a meeting with nevada tea party candidate scott ashjian and she said some unflattering things about the republican party. the audio's tough to make out but let's listen. we have the script to watch as you listen to it. wow. scott ashjian joins me right now. scott, thank you for joining us.

where did you have this tape recorder? in your pocket? or where was it? >> i had the tape recorder on my person. just self-protection. >> no, but where was it physically, where was it physically when you were recording sharron angle for the senate. >> it was in my front pocket. >> let me ask you did she know that you had the tape recorder? >> no. >> do you think that's fair game to go in and tape record someone secretly? as a matter of principle? >> yes, i do. it's considering the lies that have been brought forth about me, about my business and other things, considering the phone call that i got from a high priced washington, d.c., attorney the night before, considering the lies that went out after the fact. i had a -- >> who was the attorney who called you up and threatened you. >> cletus mitchell, she's out of d.c. you probably know her, chris. >> okay, good i love information here. let's keep reporting it.

>> yeah. >> let's go right flow to what happened on that tape. here is sharron angle and the tape that you recorded with the conversation that you had with her. was it this weekend that you did, this meeting! >> the attorney call was tuesday night. the meeting was wednesday night. >> okay wednesday night. >> i was asked to attend the meeting which i thought an apology coming from the lies that were put out in the press, which is why i went. after that meeting i went out of town. the newspaper and reporters put out lies regarding that meeting and the context of that meeting was. >> i see. >> and i got a call from a local tv host, john ralston, playing back voicemails that this mitchell left on -- on some stray voicemail and i said to my campaign manager, take this over -- >> release the tapes. release the tapes. >> yeah. >> play in defense. >> truth be truth. >> i think that there's two very interesting points in this tape that will tell you a lot about sharron angle the candidate for the senate, the republican party. let's listen to the first one.

i think that it's her basically trying to get you out of the race so that she can beat harry reid, which does make sense to me. let's listen to her. >> well that seems to be reasonable argument. she's swinging if in a three-way vote in fact that four-way now the nevada where you can vote, none of the above, but two people on the right running, you and sharron angle, don't you jeopardize the right-wing cause, isn't she write in that tape. >> i don't think so. i think that you have two politicians running against the person who is for nevada. we've had a tea party express out of california that came in trying to -- that put her in there. the republicans themselves ran 13 people on the ballot to split the vote. she was not the strongest

candidate. she -- we have people from california and now we have people from washington, d.c., trying to affect nevada. it's not right. and nevadans will vote on november 2nd. >> but strongest candidate. forget the ideology was probably sue lowden to beat hair, one on one who will beat harry? the best bet's sue lowden and she's not on the ballot now? >> it probably was, that was a republican mistake and they ran 12 people. we had several republicans running against each other, chewing each other up and at the end of the day you get what you get. >> okay ask you in a minute if you're a republican or a tea partier. but here's sharron angle on her power. here she is bragging that she can open up doors for you, all the big-shot tea partiers in washington. she'll get you meetings with demint and all kinds of people. let's listen.

was it lord england that said power intends to corrupt. and power corrupts absolutely. obviously she's not won the election, she may lose it and she's talking about juice. she sounds like a chicago pa. what's, this you got juice in washington? doesn't that surprise you that she's talking like king caucus or somebody already? >> no, no because i think that the democrats and aren't, basically are the same. and i think that's really the difference in this election. in nevada, we have a chance. we have a tea party candidate. nevada will have the chance to come out and vote for that candidate. >> so, she's not a tea partier? >> in nevada, we have a tea party candidate. and it's scott ashjian. >> no, she's not a tea partier? is what you're saying? >> i think she has some tea party aspects to her, but she's been indoctrinated by the republican party and she can't act like she'd want to act. >> here's more of her. by the way, she then gets into the fact that she's listening, i find it fascinating, certain

republicans who can win are actually tea partiers and she's listing christine o'donnell as the real thing. joe miller as the real thing. she's not sure if marco rubio is the real thing. do you agree? are they real tea partiers or just real republicans? >> i think they're anybody that has an r next to their name or d is a democrat or republican. period. >> okay, so the tea party stands alone, sir, right? >> yes, sir. >> thank you very much, scott ashjian who has tape recorded a conversation with sharron angle and may be bring her down. christine, by the way, christina bal an toni. thank you for joining us. what do you think that the impact is with this guy went into a room and tape records that person secretly. which is legal in nevada, but most would consider that dirty. your thoughts. >> yeah, it probably doesn't play out that well with the people of nevada. but also to be talking about your clout and juice as well

when you're supposed to be the candidate of the people. that high-priced washington lawyer that he was referring to, cleat mitchell, i interviewed her today and she said that she told the campaign to completely drop this. she told sharron angle not to push it further. she said to make it go away because it doesn't make angle look pretty good. >> what? what is angle threatening? what is the lawyer threatening? >> essentially, the lawyer is basically saying to your candidate you were just interviewing, why are you talking to us about all these lawsuits because the tea party groups have been fighting him for many months. they think he's a democratic plant. the guy who filed the candidacy for the tea party of nevada, the official party. he was a registered democrat. there have been accusations back and forth. >> they're saying this fellow isn't the real thing. >> exactly. they think he's a spoiler. so on this tape which revealed pretty clearly, she also thinks that he's a spoiler. she's trying to cut him some deals. i don't think that that will sit very well with any voter.

if you heard a democrat doing it, they'd feel the same way. nobody likes back room deals. that's what the tea party claims to be against. >> i mean isn't it fun? you're probably new to this business than i am but i think that you may know much already. isn't it amazing to hear politicians talking as outsiders talking the language of tammany hall and chicago. this guy's got juice. this is blagojevich and his brother, it sounds like that kind of conversation. >> it is pretty funny to hear but it's also a little presumptuous. if she wins this race and joe miller wins that race and ken buck wins in colorado, they probably will have a little bit of clout. they'll be able to influence the direction of the senate. but if you don't win you don't have anything. >> here's some more of the treasured trophy. here it is sharron angle on republican reaction on her primary win. this is in that secret tape by scott ashjian.

well there she is again and the question presumptuous vetting the fellow tea party candidate's saying she believes christine o'donnell is for real. joe miller and ken buck in colorado, but is not sure about marco rubio. being a real tea partier. she's already vetting the national tea party ticket. it's interesting. your thoughts. >> to get all these candidates in a room and ask how many things agree with one another. joe miller was quoted today he thinks there shouldn't be a federal minimum wage. christine o'donnell and sharron angle share this lawyer we mentioned.

very establishment lawyer. representing these two sort of antiestablishment tea party candidates. it's really hard to know how these candidates would get along if they win or who they would support for the republican leadership. >> how about this, zillions of dollars coming in from very right wing, very religious people helping the tea party. they're not exactly the regular folk. thank you for joining us talking about nevada politics and secret messages. up next, bill maher releases yet another old videotape. this is a hoot. of christine o'donnell who has just passed the muster of sharron angle but may not with you after listening to this. she says she is witchcraft, she was a witch. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc.

back to "hardball." and now to the "sideshow." first the newest installment of the christine o'donnell files. in bill maher's latest, she says she almost dabbled in the harry krishna movement. here she is back in '99. >> so i was dabbling into every other kind of religion before i became a christian. >> you were a witch. >> i was. i was. >> you were. >> i -- i was dabbling in witchcraft. >> right. >> i dabbled in buddhism and i would had become the harry krishna. >> boy are you spiritual. >> look at that guy looking at her. >> anyway, maher said that o'donnell's made 22 appearances, total on his show and who knows what's coming next? next for us rahm emanuel waste the no time coming out for his first campaign video for chicago mayor. note here the quote, glad to be home theme. >> my father came to chicago as an immigrant from israel. i was born here and my wife amy raised our three children here.

the president asked me to serve as chief of staff. it was a great honor to be working with him. but i'm glad to be home. >> well, that video wasn't filmed in chicago but right here in good old washington, d.c. it's an ironic reminder of a very real problem for emanuel. illinois state code says a candidate for the mayor of chicago must reside in chicago for a year before an election. joe miller says he doesn't believe there should be any federal minimum wage law. how many have done it so far? well, by the atlantic's count, four. miller. mcmahon. washington state's dino rossi. west virginia's john raese. four republican would-be senators take shots at the minimum wage. tonight's "big number." up next jerry brown versus meg whitman. wow, you love this race. the california governor

candidates debate over the weekend and the hot topic was those allegations that she hired an illegal housekeeper and didn't want to know about it. we'll get to the latest on that and look at races that could be won or lost in debates. [ whistle ] [ sniffs ] ♪ woof, woof [ groans ] ♪ ohhh! [ male announcer ] eliminate 7 everyday odors in the things you can't wash with febreze. febreze gets rid of odors... and leaves a light fresh scent. [ family ] ahhhhhh... [ male announcer ] it's a breath of fresh air.

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i cannot win the governor's race without the latino vote. and so we've worked very hard to build a latino coalition. >> my outreach really starts with my long record. i don't come at this as something just in the last year or two. >> wow welcome back to "hardball." that was the meg whitman and jerry brown debate in california

this saturday night. it's one race that might prove the debates matter in 2010. joan walsh is the editor and chief of salon.com. and covers politics for the huffingtonpost. what everyone wants to watch is the real deal. the debate saturday night meg whitman the head of ebay made hundreds of dollars, millions of dollars as the business person. brown, coming back to the the oldest governor in the history. here is the fight. >> the real tragedy here the nikki. after november 2nd, nobody's going to be watching out for nicky diaz. and jerry, you should be ashamed, you and your surrogates put her deportation at risk. you put her out there and you should be ashamed for sacrificing nikki diaz on the alter of your political ambitions. >> no and no. and now you saw something. this is incredible, meg. i didn't want to hit you on this. but when you try to evade responsibility, you're going

around the state saying, employers must be accountable for hiring unlawful people. don't run for governor if you can't stand up on your own two feet, hey, i made a mistake. i'm sorry. let's go on from her. you have blamed her, blamed me, blamed the left, blamed the unions but you don't take accountability and you can't be a leader unless you're willing to stand on your own two feet, yeah i made a mistake and going on from here. >> what would you have had me do other than what we exactly did? my husband and i played by the rules and the fact your campaign two weeks ago was talking about this issue, the fact you are joined at the hip with gloria allred, it was a political stunt. and i think that you should be shamed. >> what do we make -- joan, please help me here. what do we make of this lingo here? forget the fact that she hired somebody illegally and we all knew that she probably knew it. she's not a good business person. let's go to this question. my husband and i. bringing in the husband on this. and then saying he's joined at the hip with gloria. >> no.

>> this paring off with people, what is this about? she's running, jerry's running. why is she bringing gloria allred and her husband into this? >> there's no proof jerry brown had anything to do with this. you have to be stupid to think in this day and age if you hire someone illegally, it's not going to somehow come out, chris. >> and why do you have to be stupid? because you and i know the history huffington. we know huffington's campaign. the history of dianne feinstein. who's got the -- they both did apparent low. >> right. >> and you're right, and so they must have couple years ago, i'm just guessing here, tell me if i'm making sense here. a couple of years ago in 2009 when this issue came up in their household, she probably had someone clear the decks. she probably had somebody smart say you have to look out for the fact you have skeletons in your closet. have you hired anybody illegally. an undocumented worker. oh, i better check on my household employees and then it dime a head. that's probably what happened here, right? >> well, something like that probably happened. you know she said that the woman came to her.

and you know none of us were in that household, chris. so we don't know exactly what happened. >> right. >> we have to stick to what we really do know and what we know is when -- either when she found out or when, for sure, when she had it confirmed, or when she decided it was a political liability she fired this woman that she later said was just like family. she then accused her of stealing mail that would have come from the federal government to tell -- to tell meg whitman that this woman might be here illegally. then she has the audacity, the line i loved in that debate i just want to take one second here, is she opens up and she says, oh, i did not know that nikki diaz that i saw at press conference because she called me ms. whitman and nine years i called her nikki and she called me meg. like they were sisters or like this is some kind of evidence that they were bosom buddies or family but she fired the woman in a heartbeat. >> let me bring up another election here because i think this is another election that we're going to compare these two notes on. take a look at connecticut. the latest linda mcmahon -- and before we show this for weeks

now we've known about the problem that richard blumenthal the attorney general of connecticut say, fine man in so many ways. this guy had a problem with explaining his war record apparently on many occasions he was out there saying, i served in vietnam. not that i was in the reserves serving back here if uniform but that i served over in vietnam. he didn't really straight and that out and here it is coming home to haunt him in a partisan way. here's the linda mcmahon ad, hitting him, the day of today, which is the day of their first debate that's coming tonight. here it is. dead center. let's lift seen in i'm linda mcmahon and i approve this message. >> would you lie about serving in a war? >> we have learned something very important since the days i served in vietnam. >> dick blumenthal did again and again. >> when we returned, we saw nothing of this gratitude. >> he covered one lie with another. >> since the days that i served in vietnam -- >> he lied about vietnam. what else is he lying about?

>> that's a deadly ad. >> yeah. it gets at his character. the problem i think -- >> with his words. >> yeah with his words. the problem with the mcmahon issue is they pushed this issue when she was at the gop convention deliberately so she would win the nomination and that was several months ago and to resuscitate it, it lacks the potency since mcmahon's first airing. >> first let's look at the tactic. i can hear what you're arguing. could it be to make sure that the journalists in this debate tonight -- >> don't forget it. >> -- have to bring it up. >> yeah and very well. last week we saw the linda mcmahon stepped in a little bit with the minimum wage comments and so they want to change the subject. the other thing is his favorability ratings despite all that's happened remain at -- >> yeah he's had a great record. let me ask you this. joan, take a look. here's pollster.com that he's slightly ahead in fact over 50 right now. i'm looking at the numbers but he's above 50 so he should win in narrowly. he should win this narrowly, but look at the direction of those two polls. he's got a pretty negative slope.

they're about to cross. the question is, will they cross before november 2nd? you can't see it but imagine, about to be informed. >> yeah if it went long enough it looks like those two lines will cross bruit does come to an end in november. >> will the debate now be driven by this tough ad? >> i don't know if it'll be driven by it. i can't see a scenario in which that would have not come up. i don't think that he explained it adequately. i think they're distorting his words and it's very difficult to say that he lied. it doesn't sound good for him, but we don't know that he lied. there are times when you misspeak. i know i've done it on television. maybe that's the explanation. because we also know that there are many times that he told the truth and he talked about being in the reserves. so they go out on a limb and say that he lied and i think that's a little bit too far and then there's also, as sam alluded to, she said staggering things about the minimum wage. she doesn't know what it is. not only is she against it. >> there's nobody my age who's a male would agree because it is

such an intense issue for us. those who served and those who didn't. and those who had deferments. i was in the peace corps. we know the decision we made. whether they were positive because we opposed to war or found some way to get in. but nobody would say they fought in vietnam if they didn't. would never say that. i say thank you for your service and say to him, were you in it? they were there when the guns were firing. are you in it and the guys always say, yes. >> the problem here i thought for dick blumenthal is not just inserted himself into the narrative comment but it looked like a politician into a powerful resume to the voters. they want authenticity. the problem is linda mcmahon has so many skeletons in her closet. >> the question is, maybe it's time to have a little statement to the people of connecticut. i did not serve and i wish i had never said anything like it. thank you, joan. we occasionally disagree. >> thank you, chris.

>> and that's why we're both here. one of us would be unnecessary if we didn't disagree. thank you, joan. thank you, sam. up next, as president obama's job approval ratings dip into the 40s overall, african-american voters are still with him. wait'll you see the numbers. pretty dramatic and even higher according to this poll than a couple of years ago, but can the president get them to the polls? that's it. will they become likely voters and not just democratic voters?

republican businessman john raese is running for senate against joe mansion but there's some question when whether he lives there. the law says you have to be a permanent resident of the state, but he owns homes in florida and west virginia and according to to a west virginia newspaper, he and his wife took a tax exemption on the florida home. an exemption only available to the permanent residents of florida. by the way, that hurt tom daschle. that same issue when he was

running for re-election. he's trying to explain it's his wife and not him who got the exception. a hair-splitting explanation that may end up helping mansion. the democrat in the race. this is very bad for raese. "hardball" will be right back. let's szush up this one tone hair color! try nice 'n easy, with color-blend technology. in one step, get a blend of tones and highlights for dimension that takes you from drabulous to fabulous. nice 'n easy. your right color.

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apply now at marriott.com/freenightstay. you've got staying power. welcome back to "hardball." michelle norsis the host of npr "all things considered" in her new book the issue race through the personal experience of her family and the secrets they kept. the book is called "the grace of silence." michelle, thank you for joining us. get to the book in one minute but you have to earn your spurs here. one minute. this new poll number that's out here that shows that 91% are african-americans in the count

rear still with the president. it's even up a bit. i mean, these numbers are interested and movd from 87 to 93. the phrase, black enough in the campaign. but more it's more like issues, not so much of ethnic identification which i don't think that he's ever dodged but issues, like joblessness. >> well, there are a lot of african-americans who to look those issues and they look at their bank accounts, the friends that have lost jobs. they hear people talking about recovery but they don't necessarily feel the recovery in their lives. and they, like a lot of voters, would like to see perhaps more results coming out of the white house, but unlike some other voters or voting groups, they have a certain fidelity to this president and they're more likely to stay with him because of the historic nature of this presidency, they really have rallied behind the president. the big question, though is whether they will show the same kind of enthusiasm in the midterms, and looking way down the road in 2012, where they'll show up in big numbers, whether they'll, you know, show up at the polls with the same sort of enthusiasm and making sure that they don't just go by themselves but to bring someone with you.

remember that people were told that you know in the 2008 election, of, don't go to the polls alone. i wonder if that kind of message will get out there in the midterm, and in the general election. >> yeah. will it be a group event, like it was in 2008? will it be something that you celebrate together? i had a theory that when you walked down the street and say hello to your friends who went to the barber's or your neighborhood hangout you couldn't walk into the room and say, i didn't vote today. you had to voted. whereas in this election you could probably say to some people you know i'm so sick and tired, didn't bother voting and you wouldn't be yelled out of the room. that's the difference. >> the white house, they understand it and you're starting to hear from them, you hear it from president obama on the campaign trail. you're starting to hear it from the surrogates that are out on the road and you're starting to hear it more often from the candidates and i'm certain you'll hear it from the dnc. is the message, the work is not done yet. >> yeah that's for sure. let me ask you about you and i've always been a fan of yours and i think that you're something special as a reporter obviously and you've been this

-- that perfection operation you work for, national public radio, which is so perfect. you know we just try here, but you guys already succeed. i also like the fact that you've kept your distinctive voice and not sounding like everybody else over there but that's something that i pay attention to. your dad, this story secrets growing up as an african-american. that secret about your dad getting shot? >> well, it was a secret that the family kept for years, my father kept. he never told anyone, he didn't even tell my mother and what i learned from an uncle, who basically you know spilled it one day. he said you know your dad was shot years ago, and chris, saying this on the television right now, saying it while i'm on book tour never gets -- never gets easier because this is something that i never had a chance to talk my to my own father about but he was shot in birmingham when he returned as a navy veteran after world war ii and he stood up for himself when -- confronted by police officers who didn't want to let him in to a public building and there was a scuffle and a gun went off and he was wounded in the leg when the bullet grazed his leg.

and what i realized is that he was part of a group of veterans who came back from their military service and were not fully embraced after they fought for democracy and tried to get a piece of it back home. and yet, they didn't move forward with anger. >> michelle, thanks so much the name of the book is "the name of the grace." boots america. "the grace silence" and what we don't know, some of us. when we return let me finish what a democratic victory would mean for the country versus what the republicans are promising do. this election is going to matter. please vote! you'll have argument in my moment.

let me finish tonight with the years number one political topic. are the democrats going to get their butt kicked? a month or six weeks ago it was hard to get i bet against it. they were going to lose the house, maybe even the senate. well, today, october 4th, there's some wiggle room to o that production. maybe people are starting to shake themselves away. democratic voters are starting to get rallied. people, the people who care about it, the politics that people care about it can never be a spectator sport. ultimately you're interested in it for what matters to you. it could be philosophical, it could be about your personal economic b and it could be and ought to be about what kind of country you want to live in. if the republicans gain control of house of representatives, again, they will own economic policy. that's a fact. they will direct the tax cuts where they want them. in the past, that's been very

good news for people at very top. they will cutdown on government regulation which has been very warmly received by people high up on wall street. they will kill health care. and anything that looks like environmental legislation, and you can forget about human rights issues, that's not their cup of tea. and don't expect them to stop the next war coming, when wars are the issue, you can count on republicans to be in the amen chorus. topping it all off are the zany candidates the republicans have on the ballot in november. the one who thinks it's okay for people to use their weapons when they don't like the way congress' voting. the guy running for governor of new york who threatens to take out people who cross them. the guy in kentucky who thinks that the civil rights bill was the wrong way to go. the guy in alaska, who thinks unemployment comp is unconstitutional. well, the list goes on. and it's not as funny as it sounds. this isn't "saturday night live." it's tuesday election day right here in the u.s. are the democrats and independents really or any of them trade brag that they didn't get around and vote to cast a vote against this stuff? that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. right now it's time for "the ed