that is the ed show. i'm ed schultz. chris matthews starts it off now mixed signals. a new poll shows a republican edge, but democrats are on the rebound ahead of next month's midterm elections. river of death. a lethal wave of toxic sludge pours in to several villages in hungry oig. and deep impact. a brazilian woman survives a horrifying high speed collision. good morning. i'm wherein be i'm lynn berry. this is "first look" on msnbc. we begin this morning with closing the gap. new numbers from a "washington

post" abc news poll show a majority of likely voters still prefer the republican candidate in their district's midterm elections, but the fight to the finish in november is far from over. nbc's tracie potts is in washington for us this morning with all the details. good morning. >> reporter: lynn, good morning. looking at these latest polls, the big question is the tide turning in favor of democrats just weeks before election day. let's take a look at some of the results. you mentioned this latest abc news/"washington post" poll. it shows that among likely voters, republicans still have a 6% edge, but that is down by more than half from just last month. and in fact our latest nbc poll showed something very similar. what's working for republicans it seems is drumming up their base, they're motivated, they're planning to go out and vote. looking at more poll results,

77% of republicans say they will definitely go out and vote on election day. only 61% of democrats say they expect to vote on election day, but could make the difference tv ads. not by the parties themselves, but by private groups allied with these parties. two run leaning groups have said they're spending another $4 million on ads. they've already spent $14 million since august. and this is a big boost for the republicans because they have lagged behind the democrats in fund-raising. lynn? >> thank you. and while americans may be split over who they'll vote for come november, they do agree on the issue that matters most. jobs. last night on the last word with lawrence o'donnell, lawrence asked michael steele what he meant back it in january when he said that, quote, government has never created one job. >> you know, having a government job is great. it's a great opportunity.

i know a lot of people -- i've had government jobs in the past. >> so you've actually had a job -- you've had a job created by government, so you no longer hold to that that government does not create one job? >> lawrence, the fact that the government creates a program and that people administer the program, people that get a job from that, that's a whole separate piece from what this economy is about. our job creation in this country is not based around federal government employment. our job creation in this country is based around small business owners. and it is the mind set that you're now putting on the table that is what the problem is in this country right now. i don't think that the american people want to hinge their future to a government program or a job created through a government program that could go away overnight. rear looking at long term sustainable growth in the employment sector that is only best provided by small business owners. >> don't miss the last word with lawrence o'donnell that's week nights at 10:00 eastern right

here on msnbc, the place for politics. well, choorgd to this morning's "washington post," taliban representatives and afghan president hamid karzai's government has begun secret high level talks over ending the war. sources say negotiations are under way on a deal that would put some taliban figures in the government. sources believe this is the first time that taliban representatives involved in these talks are fully authorized to speak for the afghan taliban organization based in pakistan. representatives for that group's leader have shunned talks in the past insisting that all foreign troops withdrawal first. however, these meetings, there's apparently been discussion of a withdrawal on an agreed time line. meanwhile yesterday marked a second day of violence in kandahar. a pair of explosions killed nine people. merely two dozen others were hurt. and in neighboring pakistan, gunmen have once again struck nato tankers headed in to pakistan. this time at least 25 oil

tankers were torched. one driver was also shot dead. this marks the third major attack since a week ago when pakistan closed a border crossing into afghanistan. the closure was in protest of nato helicopter strikes in pakistan. it's unclear who is behind the latest attack, although the pakistan taliban has claimed responsibility for similar assaults. and here's your first look at some other news going on around america today. nasty weather rolled through the phoenix, arizona area bringing with it a shower of golf ball-sized hail. one resident shot this video of the hail storm. the large system dumped over an inch of rain in less than two hours causing severe flooding, downed power lines and grounded flights. in south carolina, squads from around the southeast competed in the bomb squad olympiad. an obstacle course of tasks including 100-yard dash, running up and down a flight of stairs, extricating an ied from a car,

and target shooting all while wearing 70 pounds of equipment. the competition is a way for officers to test their abilities in case of a real threat. in california, one couple is hoping they measure in as the world's tallest pair. the man is 6'11" and the wife is 6'5". the folks from guinness were on hand to record their combined height, but no wrd on whether or not officially they are indeed the world's tallest married couple. and in pennsylvania, giant pumpkins are a tourist attraction at one family's home. that's because a man and his sons grew these supersized pumpkins. the large he st one weighing ov 1,000 pounds. they're on display for visitors, but not yet available if pie making. and now for a look at your national weather, we turn to bill karins with the weather channel forecast. >> did you see those pictures?

those pictures out of arizona were incredible. >> yeah, they were. and actually there's been sort of crazy weather on both coasts especially here on the east. >> here in the east, just lingering and dreary. our friends at the weather channel, they have a lot of people down there that throw together a lot of stats. only ten times in the last 50 years had large hail reported near and around the pe phoenix area. very rare event. and typically we show this this during the severe weather season, but the green is where the hail reports came in from yesterday. some of them were about an inch, but some of the biggest reports were incredible, 2 1/2 inch hail. that's enough to do damage and really smash through your windshield. a lot of dents to your car. so fascinating weather out there. today a little more in the way of nasty storms in the west, but nothing like yesterday in arizona. maybe a little bit of rain in l.a., too. this is the one storm that's lingering. and then the other storm that's lingering is the one sitting right over the top of the

northeast and northern mid-atlantic states. and this will slowly today push out of the region, but not before drenching new hampshire, vermont and maine. you can see a tropical connection coming off the water and that's going up into eastern new england. it's raining pretty good out there in martha's vineyard and cape cod and eventually that will work its way up into boston. the back side of this is murky and kind of cool temperatures. shower activity around pittsburgh today. buffalo, scranton, and state college will have showery type weather. here's a closer view of that radar showing all of cape cod now. and watch the trend as the green expands towards the boston area. so from boston to ports mouth up there to our friends in portland, you be prepared for a wet day today. temperatures are chilly, too, behind the storm. 46 this morning in atlanta. we're 48 in chicago. but we'll have beautiful weather once this storm leaves, even the east coast will be nice. no storms that are moving across

the country. we're 80 in kansas city today and we have that yankee twins game outdoors in minneapolis. and it looks like it will be nice. the wet will ather will be just. >> all right, bill, thank you. coming up, necessity sales improve, but luxury sales fall. and earning money for watching your laptop. your first look at this morning's business headlines is straight ahead. >> the rays are mad about flad. the yapg keys pull the plug on one of the races and the heat's big three is now the big two. you're watching "first look" on msnbc.

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welcome back to first hook oig. here are some of the stop stories making news this morning. the pakistani immigrant who tried to detonate a bomb in times square back in may has been sentenced to life in prison. expressing no remorse over the botched attempt, 31-year-old faisal shahzad yesterday warned americans to, quote, brace yourselves because the war with muslims has just begun.

a connecticut man could now face the death penalty after being convicted yesterday of murdering a woman and her two daughters during a brutal home invasion in 2007. prosecutors say steven hayes and another ex-con beat the family's father with baseball bat, then sexually assaulted and strangled the mother before setting the family house on fire. both daughters died of smoke inhalation. the second defendant goes on trial next year. three counties in hungary are under a state of emergency after a chemical factory's reservoir burst and swamped several villages with a toxic red sludge. at least four were killed and dozens more injured. many with severe burns. a brazilian woman is recovering after a terrifying accident caught on security camera. the 44-year-old was hit by a speeding car and thrown some 65 feet in the air before landing in the middle of the street. but amazingly the victim survived with only minor injuries to her arm and

collarbone. unbelievable. and nasa is going ahead with a mission to investigate the mystery of how mars lost its atmosphere fp they will launch a spacecraft in 2013. and now here's your first look at how wall street will kick off the day. the dow opens at 10,944 after gaining 193 points yesterday. the s&p climbed 23 and the nasdaq added 55. taking a look at overseas trading this morning in tokyo, the nikkei added 172 points while in hong kong the hang seng rose 241. stocks soared to their highest level since may on tuesday, fueled by signs of strength in the economy and renewed hope that more help is on the way. markets rallied in the start in response to japan's move to slash interest rates. that sparked hopes that the federal reserve could step in here with stimulus here at home as early as next month. a better than expected report

from the service sector added to the upbeat mood further easing fears of a double dip recession. fresh data on consumer spending is out this morning, and it looks like caution remains the name of the game. the back to school season saw an uptick in sales of kids clothes and electrics while luxury spending suffered a 5% drop. talbots shares were hit hard yesterday after the retailer cut its third quarter forecast and announced plans to cut up to 17% of its stores. the treasury department estimates total losses from federal bailouts under the troubled asset relief program will total $29 billion. that's down from an earlier estimate of $66 billion. ford announced plans yesterday to eliminate more than a third of its lincoln dealers nationwide in an effort to revamp the brand.

keep an eye on yum brands. shares were lower in late trade after reporting a slight drop in u.s. profit. finally, cash for couch potatoes? that's right. a new monitoring service went to work this week in london putting people to work helping fight crime while watching cameras on their laptops. viewers can earn up to 1600 bucks to catch a thief in the act. a little creative job creation this. a bronx bomber benching, tampa makes plaid its new fad and the heat get ham strung. plus, the miami heat's dane shows why he's the new king of south beach. your early morning sports headlines are just ahead. financing their fleet, sharing our expertise, and wking with people who are changing the face of business in america. after 25 years in the aviation business, i kind of feel like if you're not having fun at what you do, then you've got the wrong job. my landing was better than yours.

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welcome back for "first look." in sports, late news out of even demand. that nation's storied soccer team has been sold to the owners of the boston red sox for an undisclosed amount and meanwhile after all the hype over the offseason acquisitions of the miami heat, last night the big three made their debut for all of three minutes. here's nbc's fred roggin. good morning. a new era began last night for the miami heat, but just minutes into their preseason debut, the big three became the big two. three minutes in, dwyane wade pulled up while chasing handleton. he had to leave the game with a strained right hamstring and will return in a couple of weeks.

now they've got lebron. he had 18. chris bosh added 20. don't hand them the trophy just yet. it's only the preseason. yankees have made a big move. the manager has pulled a.j. burnett out of the starting rotation, making the $16 million pitcher the highest reliever in the league. >> it gives us the flexibility to do that. a.j. was outstanding for us last year in the playoffs. it's not easy. there are tough decisions that you have to make. and you just make them. >> so the yankees will start c.c. sabathia tonight. the phil's roy halliday faces valquez.

>> it looks flat out there in this series. you've seen the blackouts you've seat the whiteouts and we're going to plaid out. >> the rays manager wants everyone to wear plaid to the game. back in august, plaid was worn. the rays are mad for plaid. i think being around all those retirement homes is wearing off on them. that's your first look at sports. i'm fred roggin. and now bill karins with the weather. i hope you weren't offended with that whole joke. i know you have your plaid. >> it's back. >> gone where you'd find such a thing. >> you'd blend into your map. >> maybe that would be good for halloween. let's chat about the forecast. if you live out in eastern new england, we're talking rhode island out toward boston all the way out on the cape, the rain starting to pick up in intensity. it will be a very wet day today. not a nice day to be on

nantucket or martha's vineyard. and this will eventually slide up into new hampshire, maine and vermont. so you can look at the tropical connection on it this heading northwards. it will be a much better day from philly and new york. the phillies have the baseball game later on tonight. there could still be a shower at any point, but there will be a little more breakses of sunshine in there. west virginia, eastern areas of ohio and also back near pittsburgh, that will it will continue to be cool and damp. but not a lot of heavy rain. and as i mentioned, it's better today all the way up through philly and d.c. not going to see a lot of heavy rain, just maybe a sprinkle or two. here's the nice weather. friday, saturday, sunday, boston the same forecast up and down the east coast. the storm will be gone by tomorrow. >> i like it. thank you. mtv reviving a fan favorite with justin biebers as host? plus tom hankss may be headed for another high profile role. your first look at entertainment is straight ahead. you're watching "first look" on ms mbs.

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welcome back. last night on late night with squim any fallon, squjim focusen christine o'donnell and the circus that surrounds her. >> her father used to perform as bozo the clown. that's right, it's got to be weird when your sddad is a grow man who dresses up like a choup and you're the embarrassment to the family. you know the guy the doing whisp whisperer? he's criticizing the president's

dog. he doesn't respond to simple commands such as sit, say, and fix the economy. and ea sports released a new version of the video game nba jam that features obama, biden, bush and cheney. yeah. how it works is bush and cheney play the first half, and then obama and biden try to can back from a 6 billion point deficit. you can also play as bill and hillary clinton. for instance every time hillary turns her back, bill scores. >> tonight jimmy welcomes diane lane and musical guest fist full of mercy. that's late night with jimmy fallon on your local nbc station. time for your first look at entertainment news. several big hollywood projects and actors are making news this week. despite reports that emma stone would play red-headed spider-man interest mary watson in the latest upcoming flick, she's

instead going to play blond haired love interest gwenn stacey. tom hanks is close to becoming the first cast member to sign up for sleeping dogs. alan alda fans will get to see the former mash star in two upcoming films, a comedy. and then he's joining ben stiller in a story about taking revenge on a ponzi schemer tower heist. elsewhere, a pivotal pistol whipping lawsuit against a club has been dropped. the lawyer who brought the suit has issued a written apology. finally, reports say mtv is bringing back the celebrity prank show punked with justin bieber as host. >> ashton kutcher is a bigger

statue guy, but if just tip bieber came out and said i punked you you. >> good imitation. i'm lynn berry and this is "first look." stay tuned. willie geist starts right now. the "washington post" reporting that a immediate karzai's afghan government is in negotiations with the taliban to end the war there. the question is, are the two sides holding these secret meetings with the blessing of the united states? back at home, an angry e-mail from the first dude shows the palins furious that alaska's republican candidate joe miller is not grateful enough for the endorsement of sister sarah. the question is what did miller say publicly that set off mr. and mrs. palin. and high drama as miss palin finds herself on the brink of elimination on dancing with the stars. the question is did americans send bristol home or was she bailed out by margaret cho? way too early for it this.