powers in the constitution. and one of the things that i would change is returning back to them. >> pakistan. is pakistan's fight claiming both sides? and after nine years and more than 1200 american lives lost, a bitter milestone today in afghanistan. on education this hour, davis guggenheim, the director of the groundbreaking film "waiting for superman." and happy halladay. he waited twelve years to make the playoffs. now he becomes part of playoff history. a good day, i'm andrea mitchell live in washington. president obama hits the road this afternoon. his first stop a rally in maryland for governor o'malley, his re-election bid. savannah guthrie is nbc's white house correspondent and co-host of "the daily rundown." hey, savannah. let's talk about the president, his schedule. joe biden both out today. biden the real campaigner for many of the places that president can't go.

but maryland is a very good place for him to go. >> no question. this is a place where the president can show his face. he's going to be campaigning with governor o'malley. and then later today he heads to another place he's usually welcome, that's his hometown of chicago, illinois. he's going to be doing some activity for the state treasurer who is running for the that there. this is something we're going to see just more and more of. the president on the campaign trail. he's got another one of those big rallies scheduled for this weekend in philadelphia. and you know, the feeling here is that some of the messages they've been trying to get out there are starting to have an effect. they see that these races are tightening. certainly in some of the tracking polls we see where they do kind of the generic ballot, who would you rather vote for a republican or a democrat for congress, there is a tightening there. but on the other hand, republicans will say if you look race by race, they're still feeling very, very good about their prospects. but yeah, we're going to see the president out on the campaign trail a lot. the vice president is kind of a divide and conquer thing. and now the first lady, too.

we're going to start to see her out on the campaign trail. >> she would be the most popular of them all. the national journal has a new poll, savannah, and their assessment from this poll as to whether people think it's better, worse, or makes no difference to have the president endorsing and campaigning for someone. take a look at those numbers. 24% are more likely to vote for someone endorsed by the president. 33% less likely. 40% say no difference. i'm not sure, really it really matters. it does depend on where they schedule them though. >> well, exactly. and i think, hearts perhaps would be warmed by a poll like that. they want to say you cannot read these midterm elections as a referendum on the president himself. so in some ways, if you've got 40% saying an endorsement doesn't make a difference to them one way or the other, that provides some support for the white house position that, you know, it's not president obama on the ballot. on the other hand, i mean you do see 33% of people who say they, look, if they hear the president has endorsed a candidate, that's

reason for them to vote against. so obviously, this doesn't happen in a vacuum. the president and his policies are very much at issue in these races. >> but interestingly, the vice president is more popular, probably in some of these rallies with the democratic base than the president. >> yeah, you know. this is something that goes back to campaign t2008. there were places and settings where they thought vice president biden was a great candidate. he has that kind of folksy delivery. he's got the working-class roots which he's happy to play up. so you know, they want to use all of the players of the administration strategically, as i said. we're going to see the first lady out there doing some campaigning. democrats were hoping for that for a long time. we're going to see her step up her political activities. >> i know you've got to go inside for the briefing. join savannah and chuck weekday mornings at 9:00 eastern for "the daily rundown."

former democratic congressman from texas martin frost led the party's congressional campaign during the 1996 and '98 election cycles and former house speaker republican dennis hastert joining us. great to see you both. >> good to be here. >> let's talk, first of all, about a couple of these key senate races. marty, florida. there was a debate last night. i wanted to play a little bit of the debate because this pretty complicated three-way race, where charlie crist is really challenged. he's behind, but congressman meek is not going away. let's watch. >> i think it's always interesting to listen to the governor attack me for positions he himself held just six months ago when he was trying to be the biggest conservative in the world. >> you haven't been drinking the kool-aid, my friend, you've been drinking too much tea and it's just wrong. >> charlie crist stands on a wet paper box as it relates to the issues that he stands for. because you don't know where he is. >> with meek still in the race, and a lot better than some

democrats expected that he would, is there any way charlie crist pulls this out? >> i don't know what's going to happen there. kendrick meek is a credible candidate. there are a lot of democrats in florida. you've got two republicans on the ballot and one democrat. it gets very interesting. maybe the speaker can predict that. but i can't predict what's going to happen in florida. ken dick meek is a credible candidate. he's behind right now but it gets very interesting. >> what's your analysis? >> i think make meek can't be counted out in florida. but you know, i think right now, what's happening is crist takes it away from the middle. i think he takes away from both candidates. >> and charlie crist is trying to repackage himself to appeal, obviously, to more democrats. but how does he do that? i mean they know him pretty well in florida. >> they do know him well. i think he has to go back to what people elected him time and time again in florida. it was the middle that elected him. >> let's talk about colorado. there's a debate tonight there with michael bennett, ken buck.

mr. speaker, first you. how comfortable with mainstream republicans with some of the tea party candidates? >> first of all you're in colorado. and it can be very divisive state. you have a lot of moderates, and you have an awful lot of conservatives. i think buck does appeal to conservatives, and to an extent the middle. >> the key to bennet is that he did much better in the primary than people thought he would do. he's turn out to be a decent candidate even though he's never run for anything before. colorado has gone democratic in the last couple of elections. this thing is very much up for grabs. bennet has a real shot at winning, and it's just a question of, do people in colorado get embarrassed by some of the tea party stands that other tea party candidates have taken around the country, and do they take another look at the republicans and say, well maybe we don't want a tea party guy representing us? >> let me show you a little bit more about what happened when christine o'donnell in delaware went out campaigning today. she went in new castle,

delaware, to a shooting club, a poistal handgun club, and surrounded herself with folks there. this was a little bit of what she had to say. >> you've got to get washington and the political process back to a time when it wasn't party bosses and special interests controlling who represented we the people on the ballot. to get our country back on track, to get our state back on track, we need more citizen politicians serving in dover and in washington. >> has she repackaged herself now? >> andrea, my first job out of the university of missouri school of journalism was as a reporter for the wilmington, delaware, news journal. i happen to know something about that state. that is a moderate state. she can't repackage herself. she can't win that race. the question is, does she drag the ticket down so badly that we also pick up the house seat, which had previously been republican? we may actually pick up a republican seat in delaware

because she runs so poorly. >> you know, i think the whole issue is who's energized. you know, even in delaware, where there's three counties. you have an urban county and two rural counties. and you don't know who's going to show up to these races. but the polls show that the energized people are the conservatives, are the republicans, are the tea party people. the 77% of that's people who identify that say that they're going to show up to vote and only 61% of the people who say they're democrats -- >> but the polls. >> the polls show her in the tank. >> they show her not even close but still it's an issue of who shows up. >> quickly before i let you go, any calls on nevada, sharron angle, harry reid? >> i think it's a close race but i think angle pulls it out. >> i think harry wins after midnight, maybe about 3:00 a.m. eastern time. >> we'll probably be all together at some point during the night. speaker hastert, great to see you. >> my pleasure. >> and martin frost the former congressman. thank you very much. coming up next the

deteriorating situation in pakistan. and later the controversial ads that republicans have just pulled off the air in west virgin virginia. send me your thoughts you can find me on twitter at mitchell reports. this is "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. trust me. trust me. ya i like that. trust me. bankers are known to be a little bit in love with themselves. are we going up? we can get the next one. i'd like to get your advice on hedging - risk... exposure. what makes us different? for 300 years we've chosen to focus on our clients. what a novel idea.

the united states and pakistan, their relationship veering out of control. the u.s. has now apologized for the helicopter strike that killed two pakistani soldiers last week. but pakistan is still refusing to reopen the main border crossing for nato supplies into afghanistan. which pakistan shut down after that helicopter strike, and now "the wall street journal" reports today, that pakistan's spy agency is still in cahoots with the taliban. nbc's ian williams is live for us in islamabad. thanks so much. you've been tracking this. there is no give on the

pakistani side, and a lot of mutual suspicions opening up here. >> well, good afternoon, andrea. it certainly seems that way. i think the u.s., and her allies had hoped that all the apologies yesterday would quickly lead to the reopening of the border. but those hopes were dashed today when the foreign ministry here said they were still evaluating the security situation, and said they would make a decision in what they called due course. well, we haven't seen any further attacks yet, although this is the dangerous time of the day, the dangerous time of the night here. when the taliban have been launching those attacks on those sitting ducks for hundreds of tankers waiting to cross the border. earlier today, we went to one of the latest attacks, while they were still trying to douse the flames in now shirra not far from the capital. this attack had taken place just down the road from a large army base and yet drivers complained

to us that nobody had come to help them. in fact it took two hours before the first police officers turned up. still, there are many, many hundreds of tankers stranded. although we did have a word today from the nato spokesman, who is insisting that it wasn't at this point badly affecting their operation, andrea. >> well, thanks so much, ian. but of course, it is badly affecting the relationship. i know you're on top of all of that and will be reporting throughout. a new white house report, as we've said, report to congress this week criticized pakistan's military for not doing enough to take on the taliban. and today's "wall street journal" alleging far worse, that the pakistani intelligence, the isi, is actively encouraging the taliban to keep up the fight. "washington post" doll up nist david ignatius has just returned from pakistan and joins me now. not just the military, we praised the head of the military for doing better than some of his press seders, but not good enough.

but the situation with the civilian side with president zardari is really going downhill fast. >> the white house report that was just sent to congress gives a devastating picture of the zardari government, its declining popularity, the lack of confidence that the pakistani government has in government as a whole. according to this report, the only institution, really, that's trupsed by the public, is the military. you almost have the sense that the military's taking over more and more of the functions of government, while nominally staying out of politics. >> and not wanting to change it. there's tradition of the military warning the government. but general keyenny and his colleagues don't really want to take on the government but they're looking for some alternatives now because the assumption is that the zardari government is going to fail. he came after musharraf wanted to get them out of politics,

reprofessionallize them. he's done that to a great extent. when i was in islamabad i lectured at their national defense university to a group of senior officers. it was fascinating to see the military, takes its self very seriously. the point is other institutions in pakistan are breaking down. and so more and more is going to the military by default. an example is flood relief. this is a devastating flood. civilian agencies didn't do the job and the military had to step in. i think that's happening in more and more areas of pakistan life. >> people say to me, the growing resentment here, if you look at the numbers, the billions and billions of dollars that we have spent in military and civilian aid. hillary clinton delivered a big package just a couple of months ago and take a look at these numbers. billions of dollars a year going to pakistan and people are saying for what? this is one reason why the flood relief, very frankly, was much slower. the generosity of americans toward pakistan was much less dramatic than what we saw towards haiti after the

earthquake. because people really are suspicious. and people in government are suspicious, i mean, we both read that report, and the classified version was apparently much worse. >> i think there's a kind of pakist pakistanophobia that's developing in washington. we're frustrating, we're counting on the pakistanis to be a good ally, to fight our fight with us and when they don't do as much as we'd like we get angry. that said we do have to be careful right now. those tanker trucks that are going up in flames are a symbol of the larger conflagration in this relationship. you know, if we get angrier with each other they don't have a lot of alternatives right now. it's a dangerous situation now. it could get a lot worse. i hope people are being careful. >> and just parenthetically, the other big deal is that the terror attacks that are being launched. these plots that are being hatched, unspecified, but concerning, are being hatched in

that area, as are the attacks against our troops in afghanistan. >> i think that helps us to understand what's going on in the white house. the white house starts every morning with intelligence briefings and threat assessments. from what little we know, these are plots that originate with al qaeda in the tribal areas. they're taken very seriously. i think they involve new and more dangerous threats. so if you're sitting in the white house and you hear that and you say come on pakistan help out, you get frustrated. >> david ignatius, thank you very much. just been there, done that. coming up next, west virginia governor joe manchin. he's no actor. you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" only on msnbc. [ female announcer ] imagine the possibilities

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philadelphia. there was a casting call, as the oregon diner in south philly and on that call sheet for actors they said, quote, going for a hicky, blue-collar look. these characters are from west virginia, so think coal miner/trucker looks. there was more. jonathan martin is senior political reporter for politico. well, jonathan, this could not have backfired worse for republicans. >> right. yeah. >> this was produced by jamestown associates. >> right. >> it's a republican strategy for them. they claim, the republicans claim that they subcontracted this when they did this acting call sheet, so the actual production. but you know, how did this mess up, the ad we should point out has now been pulled down? >> right. you probably could not think of a worse state, andrea, for this controversy to happen in. a state that obviously is very sensitive to its image, and governor manchin has jumped on this today. and you know, trying to make political hey out of this for all the obvious reasons.

so at a time when democrats are really worried about west virginia, and governor manchin, who is very popular there by the way, but his numbers are slipping, this is sort of a gift for them and it offers them, the democrats in that state, some fodder to really go after the republicans, and especially john raese, as someone who is out of step with the state. a very wealthy individual. so it's a real gift for the dems at a time when they could sure use it. >> now, as we roll some of the ads, let's just play it as b-roll so you can see the picture of these characters. some of the dipgss for the actors as to what they were supposed to wear for the tryouts, for the ad, they were supposed to wear jeans, work boots, a flannel shirt, denim shirt, john deere hats with john deere misspelled and not brand new, trucker hats. no thin stripes. and you can see some of these characters.

they do look, well i guess they don't look too authentic because i'm told that some of our col seeings here at nbc took one look at that ad and said, that's do not look like west virginians. >> it's a fascinating look behind the scenes at how political ads are actually made. we don't often hear the back story. this is what happens. they try to find folks either casting calls, dress them up like this, and trot them out before a camera. but, you know, we're now seeing what goes on. and also, it's a great example, andrea, too, of the technology that exists out there today. it's a lot harder for candidates and consultants to sort of sneak this stuff past the guards. we have access to so much information now out there. and so what may have been a casting call in a local paper that was never seen nationally nowadays because of the internet we can find this stuff. >> we should say parenthetically there was another incident in ohio where the kasich campaign against governor strickland,

they recruited an actor. >> right. >> to play an out-of-work steel worker. i don't know why they couldn't find an out-of-work steel worker somewhere in ohio, but it turns out this actor had been on "law & order" and done some sort of movies, as well. and is splattered across the toledo blade today just in advance of tonight's debate there. >> it's the same principle, andrea. >> as we're rolling the tape. >> yeah, sure. he's been in a number of other kinds of dramas, some of them not clean enough to show on family television. but he also was the out-of-work steel worker. his name is chris redden. anyway, it does take you behind the scenes. >> it does. and technology makes it so much easier now. just think about youtube for example. you know, you can find somebody like this in a past campaign commercial from the '06 cycle or the '08 cycle within 30 seconds. so these candidates have to be a lot more guarded about how

they're doing this because we can find that soim character in a past video and it can be really embarrassing for a campaign. >> it's embarrassing for a lot of candidates. the one person who may benefit from this flap joins us by phone. west virginia governor joe manchin. i know, governor manchin, you've been giving a speech. you took the time to call us. you called for an apology, they pulled down the ad. is that enough? >> andrea, it really isn't. basically i think it shows the true direction of my opponent's campaign and what they really believe. as west virginians, you know, in trying to portray us as somebody we're not. first of all, our little state is probably the best financial shape of most any state of the nation. people don't know that. we live within our means, we pay our bills and we have the ability to continue on and come out of this recession stronger than most states. with that, we have the hardest-working people. and our coal miners and truck drivers, they said they want a -- we are going for a hicky, blue-collar look. i don't know where they coming

off of calling hicky-blue collar work. first of all the coal miners provide the energy that all of us in this nation enjoy and the truck drivers deliver the goods and the energy that we depend upon, are some of the most god-fearing, family loving people. you've been here, andrea, you know how strong these people, and how good they are. if my opponent and his friends feel that way about it, then shame on him. >> well, one of the points of the ad, if they had not gotten into this flap over where they shot it, and the casting call, the point of the ad was to try to tie you to barack obama, who's not that popular in west virginia. are you going to have the president come on and campaign for you? >> the president's not running for the u.s. senate in west virginia and i am. historically i've never had people come and campaign for me. i've always done my own campaigns. basically you would have someone who was not in the political arena come in. but other than that, i've not done that. so with that being said we rub our own campaign here. you know, i've been governor for two presidents. i was governor when george bush

was president. i'm governor now when barack obama. i wanted george bush to be the best he could possibly be, because he was the president of my country. and if i could have helped i would have. i want barack obama to be the best, and i believe that i can help. and the bottom line is this. these politicians in washington, and this is what we're mad about in west virginia, we sit back and we watch them, and they put the party, whether it be democrats or republicans, they're both wrong, andrea, they put themselves ahead of the country. 66 in west we put west virginia first, six years ago when i became governor i said we're not playing this political stuff and we're not playing this special interest group. ear going to fix our problems and we did that. they need a little good dose of west virginia common sense in washington. >> we should point out that we would, of course, love to have your opponent mr. raese come on, as well. but one of the other issues is his residence. this was an issue the last time he ran. he says it's his wife's

residence. but, we know that the family at least does, the wife has a house and the kids go to school. >> it's not just a house, andrea, it's a $3 million mansion at palm beach. with that, you know, my opponent wants to privatize social security. i don't. he wants to eliminate the -- he wants to eliminate the minimum wage, i don't. he wants to do away with all restrictions and oversights and regulations and i guess he's happy with what happened to wall street, i'm not. so there's a big difference between us. the bottom line is we can show you how you can live within your means, stay within your budget and provide the necessary services but you've got to hold people accountable and responsible. and i think what they're upset about in west virginia with the national scene right now, and with president obama, is basically they've overreached. we don't want government telling us everything. we want government to be our partner, not our provider. and that's what we do here. and you know, this is the strongest little state you're ever going to run into. and we can carry our own. and we can help them an awful lot. >> well, thanks so much for

coming on. we know that the ad is no longer going to be aired. but, we, of course have an open door for mr. raese to come on, as well, and talk about it. thanks, governor. >> they're going to have to answer to it. thank you. >> and coming up next, we have an anniversary. a sad anniversary, of course. the war in afghanistan. is there any end in sight? and still next, the director of the groundbreaking documentary "waiting for superman." oh no, no! i just parked here aond ago! give me a brk, will you? (announcer dr. scholl's masg gel soles with t different gels for softness and support... ...are outrageously comfortable. ...on second thought, i think i'll walk... (announcer) are u gellin'? dr. scholl ♪ we need to finish those projections ♪ ♪ then output the final presentations ♪

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reached the danube. at least 150 people have already been treated by chemical burns caused by the spill. and the white house is pushing back against accusations that it withheld information about the size and scope of the bk oil spill. press secretary robert gibbs says that information was made public in a timely manner. the findings come from an investigative commission appointed by the president. and now to the fallout from that provocative new movie "waiting for superman" which has been shining a light on the crisis in our schools. the film follows five schoolchildren whose futures literally rest on the luck of a draw, a lottery, to get them into sought-after charter schools. >> cross your fingers. i've got a good feeling about this. >> this is for all of the students that are moving into the neighborhood for next year. >> joining us now, the director of this groundbreaking film, david guggenheim. it's great to see you. >> good to see you.

>> you directed the oscar winning film "an inconvenient truth" and now with this in theatrical release, more people have a chance to see it. a lot more people have a chance to see. you call the lottery the central metaphor of the movie. it's heartbreaking. i mean, i don't know anyone who comes out of the movie, no matter how many times you see it, i've seen it several times now, who is not weeping for these children, for their parents. it's so painful. isn't there another way for these kids to get access to these schools? do they have to go through this? >> in some respects these families are lucky because there even is a lottery. a lot of families get the school they get. the thing that is so amazing about this movie is it's a moving experience and people are going because they want to be inspired by these families. you know, what the other part about it, these families are fighting, moms and dads are fighting to get these kids a great education. and so, it's this sort of call to arms and people are going to the movies to prove that they care about education, and every kid deserves a great education.

>> you know, we, of course, a great education really relies on parents, on principles, and on teachers. and there's been a lot of pushback. teaching is the central fact of our lives as kids. >> right. >> this is a little bit of video about you and your favorite teachers. >> i had a couple teachers. and one i'll remember forever is harvey lesure my tenth grade american history teacher. even though i was the worst student in the class, he saw something in me. he made me feel, i don't know how he did it, like some great music, like some great mu tigs. he made me feel like i had something to say. >> for me it was ira serasen in seventh grade who made me stop being the class cutup and finally fall in love with government, politics and history. what is it about the talent of an individual teacher and how do we foster that? whether this is a union teacher

or non-union teacher? because that becomes sort of an unnecessary barrier to our better understanding of what great teacher is about. >> harvey sent me birthday cards into my 40s before he passed away. when you hear the political stuff all from last week, i think parents don't really care what school they send their kid to is called. they don't care if it's a charter or a magnet or a parochial school. they just want a great school and that the key sign of that is a great teacher. and that as we think about the politics, let's remind ourselves that it's really all about great teachers. how do we recruit the very best? how do we develop those we have? and how do we reward those? and in the small case, that the teachers aren't working we have to have a system that really kind of helps them find a different job. >> i had the chance, as you know to interview jeffrey canada who is a central featured person in your film, and this is what he had to say about what "waiting for superman" meant, the origin of that.

>> when i heard from my mother that superman was not real, and i began to cry. she thought i had this fantasy about santa claus and i realized no one was coming to save us kids. at that very young age, i realized we weren't getting out of that. and that is a terrifying thing for young people to be 8 and 9 years old and think i'm never going to make it out of this situation. >> so, we're "waiting for superman." who is the superman that's going to save all the kids, particularly in these inner city schools? >> you kind of have to see the movie to find out. what's great, andrea, i've been in, last week i was in baltimore, minneapolis, seattle, san diego, and what's so exciting is that mayors are coming together, superintendents, heads of the local unions, but also parents and teachers are coming to the around the movie. they're saying, don't let other people define this experience. they're going because they say going to the movie, buying a ticket is saying, this is my

first step in saying, i care about education. and if you buy a ticket to an online service, through donors choose, you get a $15 coupon to give to a teacher who has a classroom project who needs it. so right away that 15 bucks you're spending on a ticket goes directly to a teacher. it's very exciting. that's what we saw in "an inveeb truth" it became a rallying point for people to say wait a minute, let's stop and focus on this and say we care. >> well, we do care. and as you know, as a follow-up to education nation, we are staying with this. we have another interview tomorrow with bob compton one of our guests from education nation, and we follow the success of "waiting for superman." congratulations. >> thank you for having me on your show. thank you very much. >> thank you for being here. and up next here, a big day for political junkies in alabama. not one, not two, but flee political heavyweights are in the state today. former president george w. bush speaking at a leadership conference in mobile. former president jimmy carter and his wife rosalynn are being

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on my orders, the united states military has begun strikes against al qaeda terrorist training camps and military installations of the fal ban regime in afghanistan. >> it was nine years ago today when president george w. bush announced the start of the war in afghanistan. bringing a coalition of nations into a fight that the u.s. is still trying to finish. the cost in blood and treasure, more than 1,200 u.s. troops have been killed. more than 8,000 wounded. and just this week the death toll among nato forces as a whole surpassed 2,000. it has cost the u.s. $336 billion and lasted longer than any other war in american history. nbc's tom aspell is live for us in kabul with afghanistan, can

you give us a snapshot now of the war nine years later? >> well, i can tell you from the afghan perspective, andrea, that 75% of the country nine years of war, 75% of the country is under the influence, if not the outright control of taliban forces. with a growing realization that next summer president obama will announce a drawdown of american forces here, time is running out for any kind of negotiated settlement. now while the americans seem to think that they can win this war militarily, there is a realization among americans, nato partners, particularly the europeans, that it needs to have some kind of political solution, and to that end, president karzai is trying to reach out to the taliban to invite them to peace talks. but many afghans feel that the americans are holding him up. now today, president karzai inaugurated the first session of the 75-member peace council,

whereby delegates will try and talk to the taliban. but the deal they're offering is to surrender their weapons, to take places in the afghan government, and to recognize the afghan government as it stands at the moment. and also, to renounce all ties with al qaeda. now, afghans will tell you that there's nothing in that for the taliban. it is tantamount to surrender. so they prefer to wait another year and see what happens with that drawdown of forces. right now, the war, while there's increasing military operations in several parts of the country, there's no solution in sight right now. andrea? >> and, in fact, there are suggestions that the u.s. side, the nato side, is just not strong enough on the ground to force the taliban, especially the taliban leaders, to be serious about negotiations. that we don't have enough leverage right now. >> well, exactly. militarily, we've seen people try and win here in afghanistan, using military muscle before. in the case of the soviets in the 1980s, and we know how that

ended. for the americans to rely solely on military power at the moment seems in minds of many afghans to be a mistake. they also have to contend with what they see as a corrupt government siphoning funds away from the american war effort and not distributing those funds among the poor or among the majority of afghans themselves. really it's a no-win situation as far as the majority of the afghan people are concerned and the taliban can afford to sit back and wait at least until next summer. andrea? >> well, tom aspell, thanks so much for your reporting. you were there at the beginning. you're there nine years later. thanks so much. and what political story will be making headlines in the next 24 hours? that's up next. and also be sure to follow the show online at andrea.msnbc.com and on tweter@mitchellreports. this is andrea mitchell reports only on msnbc. eck on the top of every box to let people know that their cereals have healthy whole grain, and they're the right choice... (announcer) general mills makes getting whole grain

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-- against the cincinnati reds. it it the first post season no hitter since 1956. that's when eisenhower was president. we watched the playoffs in black and white. don larson through a perfect game. speaking of the yankees, a tie breaking two-run homer helped the yankees rally to a 6-4 win in their playoff opener against the twins. manny rivera won it for the yanks who play game two in minnesota. what political stories will be making headlines in the next 24 hours we are completely objective. we love chris cillizza, author of the fix blog. and steve weisman. author of the new book "daniel patrick moynian.

an amazing collection of wonderful letters. he lives and breathes in these letters. cillizza, let's talk first about the jobs report tomorrow. today's indicator doesn't tell you what the jobs indicator will be today or tomorrow. what are they expecting? how will they try to spin it? >> i think the white house would like some lowering in the unemployment rate. they know it's not going to go from 9.7% to 5%. would they love that? yes, absolutely they would love it. you know better than i, that's not happening. the other thing is the dye is cast. the cake is baked. pick your bad metaphor. but most people have made up their minds about the state of

economy. barring some type of massive shock, it's probably not going to make much of a difference. people are not thrilled with the state of the economy. they feel uneasy about where they're headed in the future financially. i'm not sure it will change a lot of minds. >> it is the last big jobs number before the election itself. people are already voting with early voting. how does the economy get translated on the campaign trail? >> well, i think chris is right. people have already made up their minds. one interesting thing is going on in washington right now. congress isn't going to do anything. the administration suspect going to do anything about the economy. but in the next few weeks all eyes among policymakers are on the the fed, which is signaling that it's going to engage in further monetary stimulus by buying securities, just like they did at the height of st crisis. that's not entered into the public debate.

but among policymakers and people who are really watching the situation, that's what's giving a lift to the stock market because the expectation of the fed to get back in action. >> with the stock market going up, it's dangerous to predict if that will continue. but people who track that, everyone invested in the 401(k)s can see the impact very, very quick quickly that may give them something of a boost. >> politics is a lot about perception more than reality. maybe too much, you could argue. the economy in politics is almost entirely perception. in wisconsin the unemployment rate is 7.9% in the most recent number from the bureau of labor statistics. but everybody in the state, you see republicans running and winning on the economy is great. well, the economy is better than

wisconsin and anywhere else in the upper midwest and better than a lot of places in the rest of the country. the more there is wealth created, the more people can look at the stock market and unemployment rate, i know those are basic indicators. but for a lot of people, that's the only indicator they look at. the stock market rising, unemployment dropping. maybe they spend a little more. maybe they buy a car, buy a house. it's a cycle of competence or lack of confidence that the obama administration has struggled with. >> if not the unemployment number, of course, the other piece of the wealth effect was housing. people no longer feel that. the housing market is not turning. but this is a careful balancing act.

not the numbers, but the way people feel about the economy is more important itself. >> you're right. it's tough. in 1982 when ronald reagan tried to tell the country that we're turning the corner and they didn't feel it, he got show lacked in congress. then in 1984 when people could feel it, he ran it as mourning again in america. the there's always a lag. i think the white house will hope that it catches up in two years. probably not that fall. >> steve weisman, to be continued. thank you so much. thanks, chris. and that does it for us for this edition of andrea mitchell reports. tomorrow on the show, a meet the press moderator david gregory ahead of the illinois debate on "meet the press." you can follow the show online

and on twitter. my colleague tamron hall has a look at what's coming up. >> great hour, andrea. coming up in our next hour. >> we better keep joe mansion here in west virginia. >> why is the gop apologizing to joe mansion over this very ad? and it's being called an unprecedented catastrophe. we have the latest on the toxic sludge devastating hungary. the latest video images. unbelievable. i can see what it's doing for the community on a day-to-day basis. natural gas is cleaner burning than most fossil fuels and it's vital to our energy needs. increasingly we're finding gas in hard to reach areas, but now we've developed new technology that enables us to access gas in hard rocks so we can bring more fuel to homes and help provide a reliable source of energy into the future. ♪

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i'm tamron hall. developing now on msnbc, no more sulking and sitting back. those are the words from president obama, marching orders, if you will, for his base. the president takes off. two big campaign stops within just 26 days of the midterm elections. plus, your decision 2010 update. sharron angle's lead. carl paladino's mystery announ