> hillary in the spotlight, let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm chris matthews, up in boston for the massachusetts women's political caucus. leading off tonight, eyes on the prize. secretary of state hillary clinton has come into the political spotlight again. will she object ticket in 2012? what do her supporters want for her and how do they want her to get it? that's our top story tonight. plus, take me home, they're not really from west virginia, they just play them on tv. remember that ad that we showed you that republicans are running against governor of joe manchin up in west virginia. >> obama's messing things up. >> stimulus, obama care. >> and joe manchin supported it all.

>> joe's not bad as governor sh but when he's with obama -- >> he turns into "washington joe." >> it turns out those guys were actors, they are actors who answered a casting call up in philadelphia for, quote, i love this, the hickey blue collar look. well, an ad that talks that way about west virginian's backfire for the earnings that's one for the "hardball" strategists tonight. and sticking with the tv theme, remember the line from the old marjoram ad, it's not nice to fool mother nature. well it's not nice to cross mama grizzly. especially why she, sarah palin is tonight. why some republicans are staying away from palin. also the tea party's republican spergnot over. now they're targeting moderates. i shouldn't call them moderates, some of them are. olympia snowe, bob corker, orrin hatch isn't a moderate. extremely conserve pif. is no republican senator conservative enough for the tea party? let me finish tonight by saying what no one has said, no one has had the guts to say about barack obama. all of that's ahead. but first the latest polls around the country.

for that, we check the "hardball" scoreboard. and a new poll from florida shows republican marco rubio sitting pretty. he's got a 15-point lead over charlie crist. the governor now, 42, 27. with kendrick meek down at 21. next, new hampshire, the senate race may be tightening up up there. kelly ayotte has a five-point lead. hodes is coming up. her lead was 14 in the same poll. just two weeks ago. and in ohio, republican and the governor race, it's the republican leading the incumbent governor very close to the margin of error and in the new york governor's race, democrat cuomo maintaining his double-digit lead over republican carl paladino. cuomo is up 18 in the new, much-respected quinnipiac poll. we'll continue to check the "hardball" scoreboard and all of the big races every night leading up to november 2nd, election day. now to hillary clinton and her prospects for running for president in 2016.

howard fineman is an msnbc political analyst and senior editor now for the "huffington post." and lady lynn forester de rothschild was a big hillary clinton supporter in 2008. out of nowhere has come this spotlight on hillary clinton, the secretary of state. you're a big hillary supporter. and i respect you for that. you're a real loyalist. what would you like to see happen right now to sort of forge support for hillary clinton in the long run for president when the time comes? >> well, first of all, i think all this talk about vice president is a little bit premature. and sort of silly season talk. because the section two of the 25th amendment makes it very difficult to replace a vice president. so i think that talk should be shelved, if president obama thinks he needs her in 2012, that is one thing. what we know about hillary

clinton is she works hard and she does her job for the american people. and she does did without her personal agenda. she is always concerned about what is in the best interests of the nation. so i don't believe that she is thinking about this. she is probably laughing it off right now. and i really don't actually think we should be talking about it. because it's not really fair to joe biden. >> okay, well let's go to howard. how do you see this -- i was amazed, i know lynn was going to be aggressive here. but talking about dumping the guy, no. i think a lot of the discussion, because of the woodward comments is about what would happen to the ticket in 2012. let's go to that. is that something that's getting serious buzz outside the clinton people? or is it also being considered somewhere near the president? >> i don't think it's being considered near the president. because i think joe biden, based on the calls i made this afternoon in and around the administration -- barack obama is pretty solid with joe biden. joe biden is out there campaigning really hard. and some biden supporters will tell you it's all well and good that hillary has terrific numbers right now.

because she's secretary of state, which is a nice, positive job trying to bring world peace and not dealing with unemployment and the health care bill and all the other difficult political issues that have hurt barack obama and joe biden's standing in the country. i don't, i don't think it's a serious thing right now. now hillary wanting to be president of the united states? there's no doubt about it. james carville and there's nobody much closer to the clintons than james carville. told me of course hillary would probably like to run again, would like to lead the country, but not through the vice presidential route, unless barack obama asks her to. and i think if you think of the relationship between barack obama and the clintons, it's not likely, especially since he, obama, still has a good relationship with joe biden. >> let's all take a look at this comment by the secretary of state hillary clinton. this is what she said to ann curry of nbc a year ago, pretty strong language. let's listen to it. >> i can't help but think nine months into this administration,

having campaigned so fiercely to be president yourself, that there can't be moments for you, where you wish you could make the decisions yourself. >> i have to tell you, it never crosses my mind. >> never? >> no, not at all. i am part of the team that makes the decisions. >> will you ever run for president again, yes or no? >> no. >> no? >> no. i mean this is -- this is a great job. it is a 24/7 job. and i'm looking forward to retirement at some point. >> lynn, it never crosses her mind. maybe we're just politically crazy. because it crosses our minds. do you think -- everybody talks like the secretary does. i'm not going to hold that against her to say she's not thinking about it. because you never admit it if you're thinking about it because then you're dead. let's look at this, howard, i want you to join in as an objective observer. i know lynn is with the secretary of state. fair enough. let's look at some interesting questions. is it smarter, because i said last night i thought it was, for her to stay where she is as secretary of state, achieve

perhaps history in the middle east peace talks, leave in a couple of years, maybe a year or two, become president of a big university like eisenhower did, like columbia and come off independently. not having to carry the baggage of everything that goes wrong in the next four years or six years or whatever. don't have to carry all the baggage of obama, come in clean from somewhere independently, having served with credibility. and in fact great credibility as secretary of state. lynn, wouldn't that be a smarter move than basically hooking her wagon to obama? any time in the next six years. >> chris, you are constructing this in a way that is not true to her character. she is not sitting there and conniving and thinking. i know you don't believe me. >> i'm asking you what you think would be the smarter move? >> i think what the smarter move for hillary clinton is to do her job. to -- >> say secretary of state? >> do her job. day in and day out. >> okay. >> and that will in the long run, put her in her place in history.

the democratic party decided when they nominated barack obama, that they wanted him and not her as president. she has accepted that. and she is doing her job in his administration. and that's a wonderful character trait. she's not the kind of calculating animal that you're trying to portray. >> no, i'm asking you as a supporter, would you like to see her as president some day? >> i would love to see her president. >> what would be the most logical path for her to get that prize, to achieve the presidency? would it be as staying where she is as secretary of state, and then leaving? or joining the obama ticket? what would be a better way to get to the presidency? you're a political person, what's smarter way to go? >> i am a political person. i would love to see her be president one day. she has to follow her own heart, her own instincts, she has to play it straight. she works hard, she does her job. >> that's a subjective analysis. okay, howard, let's go. i want you to know -- i'll come back to you, lynn, i think you know there are routes to the presidency, we've seen successful and unsuccessful. it's very hard to go from vice

president to president. it's better to come in as an independent. howard, it looks to me like you want to be her own person. hillary clinton, she has earned the right to be her own person, not be number two to anybody. if she goes to secretary of defense for example, it seems to me that would put her in a very strong position, leading the u.s. military forces to eventually be seen positively by people in the political middle, which is where the action is, for commander-in-chief. that's my thought. >> by the way, chris, she has excellent credentials from the senate in defense policy. she made it her business to spend a lot of time up at ft. drum in new york, to be up on all the issues of the armed services committee and otherwise. because that was part of her constituency and her job. so, sure, i think that would burnish her credentials. she doesn't need the vice presidential platform to be hillary clinton. she's already got that. over at the state department where i was last week for a dinner, there's a whole hillary world over there at the state department. top people, people who are highly thought of for their skill and their political

knowledge, they're ready to do anything hillary wants to do. i think if she goes somewhere else, like defense, she'll take a lot of those people over there with her. but she doesn't really need the veep job. and as you say, why tie yourself to a difficult presidency at this point, when your numbers are so good, when your husband, by the way, is so highly regarded in the country, and bill clinton has done it by being as somewhat of an outsider. yes, he's campaigning now. but he also has a clinton foundation. he's also this global figure. and by the way, i don't think bill clinton is necessarily pushing hillary or would push hillary to try to go on the ticket. i'm not sure bill clinton would necessarily would push hilary to into anything more. right now he's enjoying his own life. which in a way gives her more freedom to take her time here and not push things. because bill clinton doesn't need hillary's change of jobs to give him something to do. >> let's take a look at something that bob woodward said on cnn.

and the reason why we're talking about this now, lynn, and you probably caught this in the clips. here's bob woodward talking about what's on the table as far as he believes in his reporting is from the clinton people themselves. let's listen to bob woodward. >> it's on the table. and some of hillary clinton's advisers see it as a real possibility in 2012. president obama needs some of the women latinos, retirees, that she did so well with during the 2008 primaries. and so they switched jobs. and not out of the question. the other interesting question is -- hillary clinton could run in her own right in 2016. and be younger than ronald reagan when he was elected president. >> so there you have, bob woodward, probably the most respected reporter in the business right now, saying that some of hillary clinton's advisers, i guess you're not one of them, lynn?

>> well i don't see any reason why hillary clinton would want to be, and i certainly don't think she should be number two. i think she should be number one. but i know that she is not planning and scheming for that right now. and she won't. she will do her job. she's working her tail off. she's going around the world. inspiring girls like she inspired them here. but she's out of the game here and she really is. it's hard to accept it. but unfortunately for america, she -- i don't think will ever be president. >> okay,thank you. i'm not sure you're right. thank you, lady rothchild. i'm sorry, howard, thank you, buddy. thanks for joining us. coming back, we're going to remember this tough ad the republicans are running against west virginia senate candidate, joe manchin. if you're going to have people, make sure they're the real thing. let's watch. >> obama's messing things up. >> spending money we don't have. >> yeah. >> stimulus, obama care. >> yeah, and joe manchin supported it all.

>> joe's not bad as governor but when he's with obama -- >> he turns into "washington joe." >> those guys actually ought to be wearing phillys' caps. it was filmed up in philly, by local actors, who responded to a casting call up there looking for, quote, hickey blue collar looks. wow! republicans, can manchin turn it on to his advantage? we'll ask the strategist next. [ female announcer ] where are people with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis going? they're discovering simponi®, the first self-injectable r.a. medicine you take just once a month. taken with methotrexate, simponi® helps relieve the pain, stiffness and swelling of r.a. with one dose once a month. visit 4simponi.com to see if you qualify for a full year of cost support. simponi® can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious and sometimes fatal events can occur, such as infections, cancer in children and adults, heart failure, nervous system disorders, liver or blood problems, and allergic reactions.

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welcome back to "hardball." remember this anti-manchin ad from the nrcsc, the republican campaign committee in the senate races.

the one with the working class guy sitting around a diner. it seems like it's down in west virginia somewhere. let's listen. >> obama's messing things up. >> spending money we don't have. >> yeah. >> stimulus, obama care? >> and joe manchin supported it all. >> well, apparently that was filmed somewhere in south philly. it turns out those weren't frustrated west virginia working guys, they were actors. here's part of the casting call for the commercial that came out. quote, we're going for a hicky blue collar look. think coal miner trucker looks, clothing suggestions, jeans, work boots, flannel shirts, john deere hats, governor joe manchin running for the senate took offense earlier today. let's listen to that. >> running for a hicky blue collar look. i don't know where they're coming off of calling hicky blue collar work. first of all, the coal miners

who provide the energy that all of us in this nation enjoy and the truck drivers that deliver the goods and the energy that we depend upon are some the most god-fearing family loving people. you've been here, andrea, and you know how strong these people, how good they are but if my opponent and his friends feel that way about it, then shame on him. >> a spokesman for the national republican senate committee said, no went on nrsc had anything to do with the language used in the casting call. and the ad has been pulled. this could be a turnaround moment for manchin, who trails the republican by six points? according to pollster.com. let's go to the strategist, steve mcmahon, a democratic strategist. and don feehery is a republican strategist. i've got to go to john. this is more crocodile tears than i've ever seen in politics. what's wrong with guys wearing cat hats or john deere hats in this case. what's wrong with them talking with a little bit of accent. although i never believed it when i heard it. they weren't all sweaty or

dirty. they weren't toothless guys out of "deliverance." there was nothing embarrassing about these guys, at all. what's the knock? >> chris, i am shocked that in advertising, you would hire some actors to play somebody in the advertisement. chris, i have a question for you. do you think that all of those guys in those erectile dysfunction ads have erectile dysfunction? no, they don't. this is all part of it. people hire actors for advertising. no big shock. and the other thing about the ad that's important is that john raese is running against barack obama and i think that's why he'll win this election. because the people in west virginia didn't like him in the primaries they didn't like him in the general election. and they're not going to like him now. >> technical point, if there's so many people down in west virginia that look like these guys supposedly and don't like obama, why didn't they just go down there and interview these guys? simple question. why didn't they just go look for those three guys sitting in a local dinette having coffee or breakfast together, and say what do you guys think about obama? they would have got ten worse than that. why didn't they just do that?

>> because they subcontracted it out to the wrong people, that's why. >> okay. here you go, steve. i don't know how -- indignant you're going to be. but i'm going to give it to you. >> chris, this is a little bit like tea-ball. i got to tell you, you know, the job of political advertising seriously is to be relevant, credible and persuasive. and when you put out a memo like this to cast people where you make fun of the very state that you're trying to persuade voters in and when you hire actors from philadelphia to appear in an ad in west virginia, you undermine every premise of political advertising. and then when the rnc or the rscc that puts out a memo saying no one associated with the rscs had anything to do with this, that's simply not true. because they were hired to make fun of west virginia voters and put this commercial together. >> so, steve you -- >> to try to win this election. >> john, your turn, john. i don't think it made fun of those guys at all. >> i don't think it does.

and actually, i think a lot of people in pennsylvania feel the same way that a lot of people in west virginia do. which is why toomey is doing so well against joe sestak. the people in pennsylvania and west virginia don't like obama care is good and they're going to vote against him in the election. >> let's go to ohio. john kasich. stars as an actor. let's listen to the case for governor. >> now ted strickland wants us to keep him in his job. he didn't keep us in our jobs. re-elect ted strickland? are you kidding me? >> there we go again. the front page of the "toledo blade" has the headline, democrats in ohio rip kasich. a big red line for kasich. steve, your turn first. are you going to go after that ad, too? what's wrong with an ad that hires actors? >> it's the same thing. if you're trying to represent yourself as somebody who represents the blue collar, you

ought to be able to find at least one person from that community, from that socioeconomic group who will appear in your ad and say the kinds of things about you or your opponent that you'd like to have said. and these republicans in these campaigns, don't even know enough blue collar people to go on -- when we do ads for democrats, we have people lined up who want to appear in them, real people. and republicans can't seem to find any real people. >> so, steve, you've never hired an actor for any of your ads? i find that very hard to believe. >> we almost, john, we almost never hire actors for our ads, we get real people and they line up. because they all want -- >> the fact of the matter about john kasich, he's a blue collar guy. everyone knows he's a blue-collar guy. >> why doesn't he have any blue collar people? >> and that's why he's going to win the election. john kasich has good vision for the country. and anyway, go ahead, chris, i'm sorry. >> newt gingrich wants republicans to frame the choice this way, the party of food stamps versus the party of paychecks. here's what he wrote in a memo to his fellow republicans. which future do you want, more food stamps or more paychecks? this is the choice we want to drive home again and again for

voters from now until election day. house speaker nancy pelosi pushed back. let's listen to her reaction to that. food stamp party claim. go ahead. let's listen. >> i think this is a very, very dangerous terrain. i think there's something, some subliminal message that is being sent out there. about us and them. >> there's nancy pelosi, she was caught working in her daytime factory job there, just kidding. steve, this reminds me of the old days of ronald reagan talking about, here's an excerpt of how he portrayed working people, where, quote, rightly outraged when they waited in grocery lines, while a strapping young buck ahead of them bought t-bone steaks with food stamps and here's a "new york times" headline from that era. welfare queen. >> we now how reagan railed against the young buck and food stamps and buying whatever with them and we know how he ran against welfare queens.

is this newt going back into the old trough, going to the get the working middle class against the poor people? >> yes, unfortunately it is. and these are code words, the kind of words that frankly the republican party or most mainstream republicans have left behind. you know, speaker gingrich is a very thoughtful person. but he is very, very quick to suggest race as a factor. you remember he attacked sonia sotomayor and he suggested that race -- he jumped on the recent department of agriculture employee whose name i can't come up with right at this moment. he's very quick to pull the race card and play the race card. and if you want to be the president of the united states, you need to be a lot more careful than newt gingrich is being right now. >> what do you make, john, of the food stamp code language? >> one observation, is that newt gingrich is not running for office, is not on the ballot anywhere. >> he's running for president. >> he's not running for office this time around and i'm not sure why this is such a big deal.

the fact of the matter is that i think what newt is trying to say, is that the republicans are the party of economic growth. democrats are the party of the welfare state. i think that that's what he's trying to say in his typical fashion. which is always going to be controversial, because that's how newt gets press. >> you don't think it has a racial tag to it? >> i actually don't. >> really? how about when reagan talked about the young buck waiting in line with his food stamps. he used to talk about buying booze with it, too. you don't think that had a little tag to it? you don't think that had a little bit of a suggestion? not just about class, but ethnicity and race? don't you think newt is playing the same card again? >> let me tell you what i think. i think the fact of the matter is that people are hurting out there. there are more people now on food stamps than ever before. this is a bad time for this country. and by saying that people do want a paycheck and don't want to go on welfare, i think that that's not a racial thing. i think that that's a reality, that people do want a job. >> let me tell you something, let me tell you something this, john, and i will tell you this too, steve.

you ought to know this. nobody wants to go on food stamps. you go on them because they're poor. and you take food stamps because you want to feed your family. there's nothing funny about it. it's not to be made in tv ads, or in political ads. it's wrong with what he's done. it's not the first time that newt has played this game. >> newt's on the ballot. the fact of the matter is that people are hurting, but they do want jobs. >> john, i'm counting you to keep him off of the ballot. up next, white house senior adviser david axelrod sizes up the republican field in 2012? and the obama camp is keeping an eye on. stick around for "the sideshow."

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back to "hardball." now, to "the sideshow." first, david axelrod is out there sizing up the 2012 republican field already.

did it last night on "letterman." let's listen. >> donald trump, we know that's a goof. chris christie. jeb bush, is he in or out? is he's going to go or not going to go? >> well, i've heard the name, people don't feel he's going to go. >> uh-huh. >> and the trump thing -- >> it's silly. >> yeah you know, because it requires a big ego to run for president. and i don't -- >> mike huckabee. >> one of the interesting things is a lot of the names you're rolling off and a lot of the names all work for fox news, so if they all run for president. there are going to be a lot of openings. so if you know anybody, send them over. >> mitt romney. >> he started off as kind of a moderate republican in massachusetts. passed the health care plan very much like the president's health care plan. i always thought if he had just stuck to who he was, he would be a far more formidable candidate. >> everybody's favorite, sarah palin. is she going to run? >> i have a soft spot because i was at the vice presidential debate and she winked at me. >> well, don't ever think that people like david axelrod aren't

eating this stuff for breakfast every day. they're tracking their opponents constantly. it looks like they're worried about mitt romney. next up, what's the frequency, kenneth? this week the antiabortion group, americans united for life roll out a radio ad targeting john salazar. that was their intention. >> congressman ken salazar voted for taxpayer-funded abortions in nancy pelosi health care bill. he says he shares our values. the life of an innocent child may not matter to congressman ken salazar, but here in colorado, life counts. ken salazar betrayed our trust. >> there is no ken salazar congressman. that poor actor was reading the wrong name. ken salazar was mentioned five times in the ad by the actor. ken salazar is a former colorado senator, current secretary of the interior, and brother of the ad's intended target. congressman john salazar. they should get their facts straight. according to a "u.s.a. today" review, voters this year

are taking the early bird mantra to heart. compared to the 2006 midterms, the number of early voters in 2010 primaries has increased 50%. a trend that could reshape how campaigns operate. a 50% increase in early primary voting. that looks good for republicans, i think. tonight's big number. up next, alaska senate campaign joe miller gets another crack at the, is sarah palin actually qualified to be president question. once again, he didn't answer. meanwhile, both meg whitman and carly fiorina are steering clear of palin when she comes to california. what does that say about her and whether people want to be identified with her in close general elections. and whether they really think she really is presidential material. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. [ female announcer ] you use the healing power of touch every day.

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president obama is using his pocket veto to send a foreclosure reform bill back to congress. they'll have to reconsider whether to allow note orite work. use of private contractors afghanistan. it claims in some cases their activists help line the pockets of taliban-friendly warlords. and the house ethics committee has set dates in mid and late november for hearings that will determine whether congressional reps, charlie rangel and maxine waters, violated standards of conduct. new jersey governor chris christie pulled the plug on a propose the $8.5 train tunnel.

connecting new jersey to manhattan due to ballooning cost estimates. now let's take you back to "hardball." do you think that sarah palin is qualified to be president? and would you like to see her run? >> you know, i'm running a u.s. senate race right now in the state of alaska, that's what i'm focused on. i've been asked about various candidates throughout the country during this race. that's not my role to comment on those candidacies. >> that's not my role. welcome back to "hardball" that was alaska senate candidate, joe miller a couple of weeks ago on "fox news sunday." miller's non answer on whether sarah palin is qualified to be president, made todd palin fire off a tough e-mail to miller. yesterday on fox, miller was given a second chance. >> are you willing to say now whether you think sarah palin is qualified to be president?

>> you know, i'll tell you the exact same thing i said this last week when i was in d.c., and that is she, if she puts her name in the hat, and that's totally up to her. any one of this could make a far better presidential candidate than the one right now in the oval office. but her decision to run is hers alone. >> i wanted to give you a chance to say yes or no, and it sounds like you're going to say yes or no. >> no, let me make this unequivocal. she's done phenomenal things for this country. she's elevated the debate critical to our race and we know what qualified means, don't we? we know we have a constitutional requirement for somebody that's going to run for president, of course she's qualified. >> well, if he can't answer megan kelly's question, which was a good question, it's the same question he continues not to answer, does it nin sarah palin has a bigger problem for her political plans? he won't answer a simple question. has she got the qualifications to be president. and everybody knows what she meant and what chris wallace meant by that question. john holland covers politics for "new york" magazine. and nora o'donnell. msnbc's chief washington correspondent, and

congratulations, nora, a new facet of your professional career. your best-selling book "baby love." congratulations. >> thank you, chris. >> i want everybody to know you have legions of fans out there, that you've got a bestselling book on the market which is zooming. let's talk about this weird thing. i want to start with john on this, this is strange to have somebody as popular within the republican party, she has a 76% approval level, way above everybody else. but anytime you ask a sane candidate, do you think she's got the stuff to be president of the united states, they dodge. >> yeah, chris. i mean i think it's perfectly reflective of her broader problem, which is that she is very popular, quite popular in the republican party. but she is not that popular in the broader electorate. we've seen numbers from various polls that put her approval in the mid 20s. with the broader electorate. >> but john, that's not the

question these guys, these anchor people are asking. they're asking, is she qualified? they're afraid to say she's got the basic mental, emotional, whatever, gravitas, whatever you want to call it, preparation, reading habits to be president of the united states. that's what they're dodging. not whether they like her or not. but whether they think she's presidential material. isn't that what they're dodging? >> well yes, clearly that's what they're dodging. i think for a lot of those people, when they're asked that question, i think what they must be thinking is that if they say, if they answer the question yes, they'll be seen as by some as if they're endorsing sarah palin running for president. and they think that that's politically not a smart move for them in a general election. i totally agree with you, that the clearer meaning of the question, is something much more basic than that. but i think what they're afraid of as they're being seen as too closely tied to her and her potential presidential ambitions. >> you assume they have the i.q., the reading habits, the basic knowledge to at least compete.

i mean we have presidents that weren't einsteins, they've done okay. but they're afraid to even say she has even the necessary stuff to be president. not just sufficient, but just the necessaries. >> well joe miller's defense was pretty underwhelming, saying she meets the constitutional requirements. that means that we're all qualified. you only have to be 35 and a citizen of the united states. that was sort of underwhelming, especially from joe miller. who would be a nobody if it wasn't for sarah palin's endorsement. he could knock off a republican incumbent. so that's why todd palin has become the papa grizzly and sort of reared up on his hind legs to let joe miller know what his place is. but, again, asking about this, it is striking that joe miller would not say that she's qualified to be president. and even though todd palin says they've sort of kissed and made up on this whole thing ubet there's probably some raw feelings there. >> here's palin, the governor, former governor reacting to the miller story with fox's sean hannity last night. i think she's obfuscating, too.

let's listen. >> a diversion like that trying to make me part of the narrative there. in joe miller's campaign. joe miller is the right person to help lead alaska and to help lead our nation. and the desperation of the other camps, trying to attack him on a leaked private e-mail from todd to joe miller? you know, that's part of the question, too, is how did the media ever get that e-mail? >> you know, she has this really -- go ahead, nora. >> the answer to that is joe miller accidentally leaked it. it wasn't that somebody else got the nefarious media got ahold of it. joe miller accidentally leaked it. >> it's also a red herring now we got it we have it, it's a fact, not being denied. let me go to john on the simple question on the way she handle this thing. how long will perk work for her? she raises the octave. it's effective. are we arguing about a fact here

or what side are you on is the question she always changes to. not what the facts are, not what the debate is, but are you with me or the big shots in new york? >> i think it's been very effective for her so far and i think she'll continue to try to do it for as long as she can. she probably can continue to get away with it until she becomes an announced candidate for something else. but i do want to say, it's fascinating. what i saw from todd palin's reaction to this. it seemed to be one of the clearest signs that they're telegraphing that she is thinking of running for president. this is hey, my wife is problem i going to run for president and how dare you not basically stand behind her. given that she's done you this favor. that all of this endorsements are part of building a strategy towards putting herself into the republican nomination contest. >> that's one of the tricks of my trade. what i try to say something really irritating so someone has to react with the truth. all they think about is how mad they are and they are forced to tell the truth. they're angry, so they tell the

truth. thank you, john. and nora, congratulations on the book. "baby love" you and the supremes. thank you. good luck with that. it's fascinating. up next, after picking off a bunch of republican senators, deemed not conservative enough this year, tea party is making its list, santa claus bad list for coal in your stocking for 2012. look at these people that they don't know. olympia snowe, bob corker of tennessee. richard lugar of indiana. all unnoticed. they might get tagged. orrin hatch, whew. that's ahead 37. they're not conservative enough? this is "hardball." they're playing "hardball" on msnbc. hey nick. how's it going with the website? going great, babs. made it really easy for customers to manage their car insurance policy online. well, you know that's why we have 24/7 support,

so customers can call us anytime. [ in a robotic voice ] does not compute. error. [ all ] error. error. error. malfunction, babs. beep. boop. boop. ha ha. very funny. powering down. [ new guy ] we're not really robots. [ thomas ] i thought we were. [ male announcer ] want a great deal on car insurance? go to esurance. [ male announcer ] want a great deal on car insurance? i am rachel. i was given a bounce dryer bar and asked to try it out and then answer a few questions. the biggest thing was that it's effortless. you stick it and forget it. by not putting in the dryer sheet, it's one less thing that i have to do. wow george allen may be performing a comeback. the former virginia senator lost his seat in 2006 for making a comment that some critics took as an ethnic slur. now politico is reporting that he's eyeing a rematch with the man who beat him then, senator jim webb. chairman john cornyn who discuss a possible bid two years from now.

and one republican lobbyist in virginia said that for the past two years allen is telling people privately that he's in. "hardball" back after this.

we're back with just 26 days to go before the elections this year, there are a bunch of tea party senate candidates who could end up winning. today's "wall street journal" has a headline sure to scare senators who are not on the ballot this november. tea party wants to ambush more gop senators in 2012. well, who is the general talking about? people like utah's orrin hatch, maine's olympia snowe. tennessee's bob corker and indiana's dick lugar? should they be worried? david cornynen is the washington bureau chief for "mother jones" magazine. and sam stein covers politics for the "huffington post." david, first, and then sam. should they be worried?

should orrin hatch be scared a little bit that he's not conservative enough, and certainly bob corker in tennessee and people like that. >> i think all republicans should be concerned. i think ronald reagan wouldn't be conservative enough for some of these tea party types. as we've seen in the past few months, if you have these small republican primaries, this group of very angry far-right tea partiers can have tremendous impact. we don't know if they're going to have a big impact on the general election, but we do know in the republican primary, they have a lot of weight to pull. so if i was, if i were orrin hatch or any of these others, i'd be running to the right and we already see that happening as "the wall street journal" reported. >> it's hard to launch a defense in this game, sam, because if you've got a 95% conservative voting record, they'll just say, but you voted for t.a.r.p. >> yeah. >> or you made a deal with somebody on health care that looked dicey. it's all of these weird ways people are engaging in politics now. they find one thing and they obsess over it like a tooth

abscess. that's all they talk or think or feel. is that one thing you did. that's all they think or talker feel. that one thing you did. >> i hate to say it, i agree with david. the institutional hurdles for grassroots candidates have been leveled down. if a lot of candidates win in 2010, it will incentivize more to run in 2012. david ploume said if you were wanting to run as a republican, you would have to have your head examined. >> how do they run when they carve out their own middle? >> i was at a function with mel martinez. he said if everyone is going tock lock step with jim demint there is no room for governance.

he said he thinks it would be better if the party didn't win the senate. it would still be the democrats who are held to standards by voters. they'll have real problems figuring out how to govern if they take power. the middle has been hijacked way over to the right on this one. >> david, what do you think? what happens if the party basically says, if you're a middle of the road or moderate conservative, you're gone, at the same time they go after the ronald reagan democrats, independent voters and people upset with obama or angry at him right now and want to join a party which is only going to be a right wing party? >> i think they've turned into zombie party. we've seen in the last two years the obstructionism on the right. if you get rand paul and jim demint, they will say no and stop everything. senate rules basically allow that. they don't believe in governance.

they believe in anger and inventing, right? >> this is serious business. >> it is serious business. >> you have a gay person in your family or somebody you care about or generally care about human rights, suppose you think you live in the suburb, you're not armed at home, therefore you believe in gun control. suppose you are pro choice on abortion rights. is there a republican party for you, sam? if you have any of these -- because they don't want you in the party if you believe any of these things. >> let's be careful here. because it's not across the board. there have been exceptions to the rule. look at mark kirk. he's not their choice in illinois but he ended up there. once these tea party candidates win in 2012, you'll see people like olympia snowe to make a party switch. >> you're making my point. >> we have to wait till 2010 and see how the results play out in the general election. if some of these candidates lose like christine o'donnell, you'll see a backlash.

>> suppose mark kirk gets in this time because they need a candidate. they'll be gunning for him next time. corker just got in and they're after him already. >> he'll have six years to move to the right if the tea party doesn't end up exploding the republican party to bits and pieces. the senators that you just mentioned, some of those people like orrin hatch and bob corker, not my favorite guys politicalally. they have shown in the past the willingness to work with democrats on governing issues, whether it's health care or financial reform. there's so much pressure on these guys to get to your earlier point, chris, to do nothing with any democrat. not even sit down you in the cafeteria with them. then the republican party will become the party not just of no but of anti-government. people will like that to a

certain degree, but it won't solve any of the problems we have. >> at some point, they'll become not the party of the elephant but the barking dogs as the cars go by. when we return, let me finish by saying something about president obama that you're just not hearing out there, not even from the white house and i don't know why, even in this tough time. [ female announcer ] where are people with moderate to severe

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let me finish tonight with

president obama and what he's done. i say the following because no one else, including the president, has. it is the hard structure of reality that in the current cacophony so often is overlooked. this president came into office facing the worst economic outlook since the 1930s. he took action, bold action. the action prescribed by the best economic minds following the best thinking there is is in in the 1930s. everyone involved said it had to be done it to avoid catastrophe. the destruction of our country's financial spine. white kunkle drop in consumer spending. if he hadn't, no one, including his worst critics, have no idea what would have befallen. we can argue about the stimulus bill, but this was critical to break what was widely seen as an economic freefall.

it's easy to stand on the sideline, voting against everything, rooting against everything and deride that bold action for the simple reason nobody will ever remember if you had a seriously better alternative. further, with so many presidents from fdr on said, to end this debilitating dependence on the emergency room. he said society had a responsibility to look out for members' health. for the first time in our country's history, we are no longer the hold-out in the modern world against broadly available health insurance. it is no time for political high-fiving. the economy is down and people are hurting. i wonder whose good it does for the president and those who wish him well to overlook the gutsy facts of what he's got done only now approaching two years in office. someone needs to say. that's "hardball" for now.