hour -- what are you doing up right now? what are they saying? >> insurance -- >> introduce the book to the high school students? >> yeah. you would do that. it's one of the eat works. at least that's what i think. what else, rob? >> our 3-year-old is having trouble sleeping. can you send us a copy of "american freak wondering if y a copy of "american freak show." >> sherry says i'm making breakfast for my husband trying to figure out how to tell him i wrecked his car. "morning joe" starts right now. there's been a lot of negative attention and some of the statements. christine o'donnell who has gotten so much attention except in the fact she's very far behind in the senate race, she's

had misstatements or gaffs in the course of her debate with chris coons. do you think she's actually undermining the republican brand specifically? >> no, i don't. chris, folks make mistakes. lord knows, i'm familiar with foot-in-mouth disease. despite those flaws, if you will, of the misspoken word, people understand where their heart s. people understand these folks are going to go out there and fight for them. >> welcome to "morning joe." joe scarborough and mika brzezinski with you. if you had a great weekend, we're going to end it right here for you. >> no, we are not. >> is it halloween week? >> it is. i'm not a halloween fan. >> "new york magazine" is doing a trick or treat special. as i'm walking with friends of my son, blt burger, and i walk past this magazine shop, and halperin, you walk me past

magazine shop, i'm going to always stop. i go down and see "new york magazine" which always has the best cover. they really seriously are gen s geniuses over there. >> along with "time" magazine. they do the best job, too. >> they do. there's a picture of sarah palin, red, white and blue splashed all over the cover and it says "president palin?" i'm thinking what a shameless craven way to not only sell magazines, but cause lock-ins. i look a little closer. >> not even a question mark on there i should point out. >> not a question mark. >> if you read the article -- did you read the article, joe? >> i just look at covers. >> it's really interesting. we'll talk more about it. >> you really think she could be

president of the united states or are you trying to scare my friends on the upper west side. >> we'll talk about it at length hopefully later today. >> there's a very clear and scary argument for it. >> there are people who are actually scared of the guy in the white house right now. that may be shaping the elections. >> that has nothing to do with this conversation. but about her, yes, there's a very clear and scary argument. >> are you really scared by her being president? i think that's revealing. willie, i think she opened a window to her left wing soul. >> a sad way for ward. >> i don't mean to sound self-serving, but "american freak show" foretold the palin presidency. >> not self-serving if this is the first time you brought up your book. >> you know what i want to say about willie geist and "american freak show" --

>> modern day nostradamus. >> speaking of that, mark halperin looked forward for us. let's put it down right here. i hear, i hear republicans are going to pick up 50, 60, 70, 80 seats. that's fine, but i'm a fundamentals type of guy. what's the right track, wrong track? what's the party's approval rating? what's the president's approval rating? when i start hearing 60, 70 seats and republicans could take over, hold on to two numbers. barack obama sitting at 48%. that's pretty damn good. number two, republicans' approval rating according to the latest pew poll is 26%. >> add into the mix the pennsylvania special house race that you've been bringing up -- >> if they can't run that special election, one election on one day, how will they do well in 535 race sns. >> we see labor is fired up.

mr. trump ka and others are sending lots to their voters. i think some democrats, but not enough to stop the wave. >> so i walk past magazine shops and i look at covers instead of actually reading the magazines. i look at general trends instead of looking inside the specific races. for kids like you that actually do these things, they come out of this shop of horrors just saying this is going to be a nightmare for democrats. if you go race by race by race, i understand the numbers add up. >> if you get out your giant electronic ab difficult cuss there are so many races in play now. barney frank, a powerful committee chairman in a very blue state who had to open up his own personal savings to invest in his campaign to make sure he doesn't lose. again, there's so many races in play, the swing of possible losses for democrats literally could be 40 or 50 seats as a

swing, not as a total number. >> a big loss for democrats, though, something you've been saying for quite some time now, peter baker writes about in sunday times. that is that republican win, a republican sweep could be good for obama in the next preside presidental election. >> there is no doubt that barack obama losing the house of representatives is the best thing other than darrell issa and the subpoena power. i understand so many people out there that follow politics on tv, follow it as a sport, my team against their team, conservatives against liberals. trust me, for those who know how washington works, john, if barack obama has speaker john boehner to play off the next two years, that helps him more than it hurts him politically. >> especially if speaker boehner is under a huge amount of pressure from this insurgent

cadre of populist/tea party candidates who will get into office and have very extreme demands and put a lot of pressure on him to move further to the right and will give president obama an opportunity to portray him as extreme. joe, you talk about this on the show all the time to the point where it sounds like a broken record. >> what, us? >> you go back to '95, bill clinton did two things. he found common ground on areas where he could work with republicans on the balanced budget and welfare, and on a lot of other areas he was able to look at newt gingrich and point at them and say they're nuts. that combination of cooperation and attack on their extremism worked out great for him. if obama goes the same way, it could work out great for him, too. >> you can point out the extremists in your own party, point out the extremists in the republican party. suddenly you're that centrist that everybody voted for in iowa. >> that's why it's better for obama if republicans win the house politically, only better

if he takes advantage of it. he doesn't have great history of adjusting. >> i got to say this, too, mika, we've been talking about the lack of bipartisanship in washington, d.c. i don't want to even go there on whose fault it is. but i've thought -- i think every president bears the ultimate responsibility for reaching out. there is from white house memo, front page of "the new york times," obama's playbook after november 2nd. it says in here that he did not reach out to mitch mcconnell and have a one-on-one meeting with the most powerful republican on capitol hill for 18 months. it wasn't until august when trent lott, the former majority leader had to reach out to tom dashl and say, these guys have to get together, if the president wants to pass arms control, he has to get mitch

mcconnell. it took 18 months for the president to have a one-on-one with the most -- people say -- it goes on in here saying, boy, this tells you how hard it's going to be for the president dealing with these republicans. no. i have never met a congressman or senator who did not come to the white house when the president of either party invited that person to the white house. >> right. that's for sure. >> this isn't on mcconnell. this is on barack obama, maybe his lack of understanding. maybe it's his arrogance or whatever people have been putting the first two years down to. if i were president of the united states, the first thing i would do before i called over people in my own party, i would call leaders of the other party and say, o karks what are we going to do? >> he should have called them before he was sworn in. if you read to the end of the piece, trent lott talks about how bill clinton used to call him all the time, morning, noon and night he'd hear from bill clinton. it's silly to go through whose

fault it is, but the fact the president said he wanted to change the tone but didn't reach out to the republican leader, it's dumb founding. >> speak of trent lott, this might explain why the budget was balanced for four years. bill clinton loves to tell the story of threat lott sang something ugly about him on a sunday morning talk show. before lunch on that sunday, trent was saying, i got carried away. bill clinton saying, i understand, i do the same thing. it's okay, buddy. that's fine. these two, barack obama and mitch mcconnell did not have a one-on-one meeting for 18 months. i'm telling you, that is scandalous. it's scandalous in terms of seeking a way for ward with both sides -- not scandalous,

absolutely stunning to me. i can't even begin to imagine who thinks this way. stunning. >> especially stunning in the context of what we all remember barack obama saying as a candidate. how many times did he say we can disagree without being disagreeable. that was the whole essence of his pitch to bipartisanship during the campaign, was that, of course, i disagree with republicans about a lot of things, but we'll get together and have conversations that apparently weren't having between him and mitch mcconnell in the first 18 months. >> mika, i know a lot of people have been thinking what's gone wrong the first 18 months. we were in iowa and was excited by the fact -- i always bring up tucker carlson who said, you know, you get the impression this is one of the first democrats that may disagree with you without thinking that you're stupid or evil or whatever conservatives think liberals thinkabout them. but looking -- thinking about it, bill clinton, had to deal with republicans his whole life, had to deal with conservatives

his whole life. from the day he got elected in 1978 to getting beaten in 1980, to getting re-elected in 1982, he dealt with republicans and conservatives. it was a constant fight. you look at barack obama's adult life, just weren't a lot of republicans around him anywhere, whether he was in chicago at the university of chicago or harvard law school or whether he was at columbia law school, he has been around the same type of elites his entire adult life. i've just got to believe that that may be one reason why he's just not as comfortable reaching out to people who disagree with him as, say, bill clinton, who was the best. >> i think you see the real test as he in these first two years has sort of tried out different things that haven't worked in terms of reaching out, which is something he claimed he wanted to do. he made a promise about that. and then over the weekend, as we get down to the final stretch of the midterms, he is accusing the

republicans of riding into the midterms on rage. so he's leaning in and lashing out at them just as much. the question will be after, especially if there's a republican sweep, how he handles the relationship from there. it's an opportunity for a reset. the question will be, do they learn? >> mark, i wonder, has anybody written an article about barack obama's adult life and how sort of clois centered it's been among harvard elites, columbia elites. >> he knows people from princeton. let's be fair. >> that's true. >> i don't think the republicans have made it easy for this president either. >> no, they haven't. this isn't anti intellectualism. i would like all my children to go to harvard or yale or princeton or wherever, or university of alabama, best schools on the planet -- roll tide. but just like i would want somebody from that -- with that

background to hang out with people from southern state schools, i'd want people from southern state schools to have friends at harvard, at yale, at princeton. and among elite circles that sometimes republicans shy away from. >> let's not totally discount the fact that before he was an adult he had a more diverse life than probably anyone who has ever been president. >> how many republicans did he hang out with, how many conservatives? >> i think on that side -- remember he did work with republicans in the legislature. i think they got a skewed per specsive. democrats in texas, republicans in illinois are not like their counterparts in washington. they're more moderate, more centrist. i think when they got to washington, both those presidents found working with the other side was harder than it was at home. >> seriously, i feel lucky that my home is in one of the most conservatives, pensacola, red-neck riviera, lower l.a.,

lower alabama. i work in one of the most progressive places on earth. where you live is so conservative, where you work is so progress zi, you sort of see the ways where people are the same. i don't know if -- i just don't know how you go 18 months, 18 months without talking to the most powerful republican on the hill. >> i don't know how we go 18 minutes without doing the news. we found a way to do it. lots to tell you about. up next, politico is calling it the story of the midterm elections. the verdict is in on which way independent voteers will head when they go to the polls. charlie crist gets called out for being a heckler in last night's testy florida senate debate. first here is bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> good morning. we're talking tornadoes this morning. dangerous weather moving through alabama. confirmed tornadoes north of birmingham last night, those are

heading up near chattanooga, tennessee. somewhere a tornado watch that includes the atlanta area. it looks like the heart of these storms will go through the atlanta area in the middle of the rush hour, about two hours from now. that will be very difficult commute for you. check out these pictures. this is the same storm system as it went through texas. this is south of dallas, incredible footage up close and personal with this twister in rice, texas, significantly damaged a high school in the area. swept right across the highway. amazing we didn't see deaths from this. look at those pictures with the blue skies in the background, an incredible scene. we watch the tornadoes this morning. later today we'll be talking about wet weather in the middle of the country. hurricane richard made landfall in belize last night. that is dissipating quickly and is not ooh concern for anyone in the u.s. rain and thunderstorms will move into pittsburgh and d.c., along with showers in philadelphia and new york.

not a lot of wet weather. new england is dry. we'll watch the middle of the country closely, a huge windstorm moving through chicago and minneapolis. i've been saying this all morning long. on tuesday and wednesday we expect 20-foot waves on lake michigan with 70-mile-per-hour winds. how is that for an impressive storm? we'll talk more about that tomorrow. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

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do you know what a roof costs in manhattan? it would be cheaper to eat a roof. you probably look at me and you're thinking to yourself, what, is he just another washington insider? what is he? part of the establishment? believe it or not, i have never been a governor anywhere. people ask, if elected, how would you lower our rent? simple, the rent is too damn high. >> what i love about him is he's in a rent subsidized apartment, but still love him. i love him. >> what studio -- >> when is he coming in. >> historic 8h. >> isn't that wreer going to be election day? >> yeah, the morning after. >> the morning after, "morning joe," a live studio audience on november 3rd at studio 8h.

for information go to joe.msnbc.com. or call 212-664-3056. an raj daily news, ethics was a focal point. republican joe miller said he was suspended for violating ethics policies while working as a local government attorney in 2008. a new times cnn poll shows joe miller and write-in candidate lisa murkowski dead even at 37%. "st. pete times," charlie crist tried to slow down front-runner marco rubio making sweeping accusations against his politics and character. rubio fired back. >> my tax returns are public. the bottom line is people want to focus on these issues because they're wrong on the important issues. this country has a $13.5 trillion debt. >> he doesn't want to release them because he doesn't believe in transparency. i created the office of open

government. >> i've never had a heckler at the debate, i've always had them at the audience. >> that's the way it is. welcome to the nfl. >> go ahead. >> i apologize. i've had this heckler going on for two minutes now. >> that's actually a good line, whoever give it to him. he delivered it well. washington times, a week before the midterm elections, odds are that republicaning will win control of the house but democrats will keep control of the senate. that according to overseas book makers. the gop is heavily favored to take the house with a 1-33 betting line t. line for democrats to win the line. christine o'donnell has 10-1 odds against winning the senate seat in delaware. >> keep those odds up quickly. mark, 1-33. that's 39 seats? that ain't a walk in the park, that ain't secretariat running against my dog. >> i don't know where they make

that stuff up. >> you can make some money. >> overseas book makers may not know as much as politics as charlie cook. >> i actually put o'donnell winning at 33-1. i think that's a little too low. >> willie? >> i don't get to come to las vegas, my consolation is i get to read the promo. "morning joe" live from las vegas tomorrow. >> you won't get to wake up at 1:30. >> i wasn't invited. >> that's terrific. >> would you like to take my place? >> no, no, i'm good. >> i'll stay. >> i could get my beauty sleep. you go ahead. joining us, executive director of politico, jim vandehei. checking out your new politico battleground poll, i think your last before the race, before election day in eight days. tell us about what's going on with independents and why it looks like good news for republicans. >> independents, republicans lead them in the generic match-up by 14 points, 44-30.

i think so much has been made in this campaign about the motivation and the enthusiasm on the right, about the tea party movement, but it is a swing of independence away from barack obama, away from congressional democrats. it started about a year ago, and it's moved in full force in the last couple weeks. if those numbers hold true, you'll have a highly motivated independent group sort of merged up with the tea party movement which has higher enthusiasm than democrats. that's why a lot of people think the numbers could be real bad for democrats a week from tomorrow. >> looking inside the numbers, you guys have 70% of the independent voters saying they've lost faith in government over the last two years. 60% say they're opposed to the health care plan passed by democrats. are they pinning this on president obama, this swing? >> they are. the numbers are worse when i you match up obama versus republicans, and congressional democrats against congressional republicans. the voters actually seem to have more faith in congressional democrats than obama if you look

at job creation, turning around the economy and other key issues. obama has a lot of work to do. you were talking earlier about post election, will he try to move to the center? i think he has a lot of damage to undo that took place over the last year. he's got to figure out a way to win back those independents. politics is fairly simple. you have to keep your base motivated and win the middle or it's very hard to win elections. >> nine days from today, a lot of people in washington may wake up with their jobs quite different, especially some of the leadership there. nancy pelosi, john boehner, harry reid among others. how is washington going to look that morning? >> it's going to be a great day. there's going to be a lot of things to watch for. you can see three of the top four leaders have serious challenges. nancy pelosi if democrats lose the house would likely retire in next couple months. even if they keep the house, that's going to be a great story. there's at least six democrats now on record saying they eat vote against her. another dozen suggesting they do

the same. it's not a slam dunk she'll remain speaker if they keep control of the house. as for boehner, he definitely becomes speaker. expectations are so high that if they fall short, i think it's possible there be a challenge to his leadership. on the senate side, harry reid, if he loses his race against sharron angle, he loses his job. if he does, you'll have a great fight between chuck schumer and dick durbin. there will be a lot of action to watch not just as the lower levels. >> mitch mcconnell will inherit the worst leadership job in washington. >> few things worse than a one-seat cushion. >> jim vandehei, thanks so much. . coming up, mike huckabee speaking out against what he calls the republican establishment, the country club elite. huckabee going after karl rove. the sunday night shedown,

brett favre taking on the green bay packers at lambeau and booed all night long. >> i wonder why. >> he made the front page of the "new york post." what's that about? not mine? >> there was some texting going on. >> football? what? i don't understand. >> you know what -- john is a ford and lincoln mercury service technician. very smart. we were just discussing the circumstances by which a person can find himself in four separate places at one time. i didn't really say that. but people come in here for tires, brakes, batteries and oil changes. so it's possible? yes. oh that's brilliant. buy with confidence. thanks to our low price tire guarantee. so, with everything you need in one convenient place why would you go to four separate places? now that's a good question. well, there you go.

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welcome back to "morning joe." 31 past the hour. a quick look at the news as the sun has yet to come up over capitol hill. aid workers are racing to contain a cholera outbreak in haiti that has already killed more than 250 people and sickened more than 3,000 others. u.n. officials are trying to stop things from getting worse in port-au-prince where more than a million earthquake victims still live. so far five cholera patients have been reported in the country's capital. haiti is dealing with its second humanitarian crisis since the devastating earthquake in january. the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, admiral mike mullen taking the twitter to blast online to blast wikileaks

for its weekend release of almost 400,000 documents about the war in iraq. mullen tweeted that wikileaks puts lives at risk and gives adversaries valuable information. it shows the dif sillian death toll in iraq was higher than previously reported. as wikileaks mounder brought attention to it during the iraq wall, he stormed out of an interview when asked about sex abuse allegations against him in sweden. >> he's not for disclosure there? >> he only wants to answer the questions -- >> for disclosure -- okay. later today u.s. swimming federation reporters expect to receive the body of fran crippen who died in the united arab emirates. doctors say the severe fatigue was behind the 26-year-old's

sudden death. the cause is under investigation. his long-time prep school coach says the swimmer told him before the race that the outside temperatures were 100 degrees and that the water was 87 degrees. obviously they're going to be looking into what happened there. time for more sports with willie geist. according to nfl sources brett favre has admitted he left voice mails for the former jets sideline reporter but denied sending lewd photographs of himself. >> he was just trying to do her job, leave me alone. >> don't look at me because there's nothing to see here, i wouldn't package myself in a way that would be kind of alluring. >> can i complain about something here? can i complain about something? i'm looking at these stupid bcs standings. >> you have to wait. you have to be patient. >> i'll wait. i have a challenge though for the idiots at the bcs. >> we'll get to that in one

second. brett favre, the sunday night game going back to lambeau field, the place he ruled for most of his career, but was booed without mercy last night. in the third quarter, the vikings down 11 he hits randy moss with a bullet for the score. vikings pull to within four. favre did a lot of throwing the the other team last night, too. >> that's what he does. >> in the fourth quarter, under a minute to play, favre throws to the back of the end zone, looks like he makes a great catch. the refs call it a touchdown. you have to get two down in the nfl. call is reversed. favre slips after taking the snap. he gets up, scrambles out of the pocket. the ball sails over his head. he loses against his old home team fshlgs 28-24, throws three interceptions.

the pack erls fans turn on him. they love the loss by favre. great quote after the game from vikings coach brad childress talking about the three interceptions, he says this. this is brad childress, quote,out can't throw to them, being the other team. sometimes it's okay to punt the ball. that's good coaching. >> listen, i've knocked brett favre for a lot of different reasons, he has sent me some texts and they were foul, foul. green bay fans should not boo a guy that wanted to come back to the team but was basically pushed to the side by ownership. >> is that why you think they were booing him? >> yeah. >> that's not why i would have been booing him. >> they don't care about that stuff? >> they don't? >> nobody in the audience cares about that stuff? >> that's a thing out there.

>> bama. >> you want to get to that? >> yeah. >> how about the steelers, ben roethlisberger, another guy who had some trouble, taking on the dolphins in miami. watch this play. weird. late fourth quarter. pitt down two. ben roethlisberger lunges toward the end zone but fumbles the ball. officials review this play for ten minutes. rule that the ball was fumbled, overturns the touchdown but they can't figure out who recovered the ball because the pile was so big. they give the ball back to the steelers on the one yard line setting up the field goal that turned out to be the game-winner from 19 yards out. pittsburgh escapes with a 23-22 victory. >> you are kidding me. >> san diego and new england, nothing going going right for the chargers. >> who cares about these games? let's talk about college football. seriously. >> i'm plowing through this. let's get to the good stuff.

get this stuff out of here. >> blah, blah, blah. >> bcs, third week end in a row, the number one ranked team in the country lost. this weekend it was oklahoma's turn. they became number one in the first bcs poll and lost to missouri on saturday. that adds to the chaos. here are the new stand dichx released last night. auburn beat lsu to number one, oregon pasted ucla. boise state at three, tcu four, michigan state five, and alabama -- >> keep those up for a second. willie, i want the ass clowns at the bcs to listen to this. i'm a big believer that if you want to control your destiny, win all your games. that's fine. i'm issuing a challenge to any of the losers voting on these polls that if alabama plays any of these teams ahead of the national championship game, i will give you ten-to-one odds and take all your money. does anybody, willie, believe if

boise state plays alabama -- a team that has five teams. >> okay. >> hold on in the western conference of the s.e.c. in the top 25, not in the s.e.c., five teams in the western conference of the s.e.c. on their schedule, does anybody really believe boise state would beat alabama? >> some people in boise state do. >> michigan state, michigan state who had trouble getting past northwestern? does anybody really believe that michigan state would beat alabama? >> here is the good news. you are going to get your shot. michigan state plays iowa this weekend, could lose on the road. oregon goes to usc. if alabama wins out they're in the national title game, means they would have beaten auburn. >> two teams scare me, one auburn, but we'll beat them pretty handily and oregon.

you quach those oregon guys. i'm hoping crazy lane kif fen beats him in the coliseum. he is crazy. >> you would snow. lane kif fen is one of the craziest coaches ever. >> something wrong with him. >> there is something wrong with him, but i'm pulling for him this weekend as the usc trojans take on oregon. >> oregon-alabama for the title. >> hughey lewis is going to be here. >> and the news. are you suffering from frequent heartburn ?

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she'll be a good president? >> i don't know if she'll run or not. if she runs, there will be a formidable candidate. there are going to be several geological ages that will come and go before the 2012 presid t presidental nomination fight gels. >> all right. welcome back. with us onset, the game change boys, msnbc and "time" magazine senior political analyst mike halperin and political columnist for "new york magazine" john heilemann. let's go to our op eds. how sarah barracuda becomes president. you say combine that with a strong enough showing in a few other places in the industrial northeast to deny obama those states and with palin holding the fire-engineered states of the south and the president might find himself short of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. the election would be then to the house of representatives which, after november 2nd, is likely to be controlled by the republicans.

the result? hello president palin. everything about palin's story is far-fetched, but here she is a phenomenon nearly, nearly unprecedented in modern politics. a figure so electrifying to the most hopped up segment of her party that at times she seems unstoppable. she's a super nova says mckinnon, the only parallel is barack obama and look what happened to him. >> and you presume in this scenario that michael bloomberg runs, right? >> it's a three-part. the piece is basically in three parts. one is the conventional wisdom is coalescing among republican professionals, strategists, operatives that she ooels going to run. number two, because of the calendar and her ability to raise money and dominate meade yarks she could win, especially given she'll be strong in iowa, nevada, south carolina, three of the first four states. if she wins, that's the likeliest thing to pro vote a third party canned dant dat, most likely mike bloomberg. if he gets into the race t likeliest outcome is he wins

connecticut and new york and new jersey. >> florida and california. at least is competitive enough in those states to keep alabama from win tlg and suddenly you have a jump ball that goes to the house. >> so you're presuming that palin -- you see gop operatives are presuming palin does run. >> i think people increasingly -- i talked to two dozen republican operatives, senior guys, the guy whose ran the dole, bush and mccain campaigns, there's still dispute on the point. they're thinking she's teeing herself up to run. >> more likely to run than not. let's look at the elections a week away. beater baker says this for "the new york times," either way he'll find a way to forge agreements with republicans on issues like the economy, energy and education or he may be able to play off congress as an adversary much as mr. clinton did with house speaker newt gingrich 15 years ago and as truman did with the do-nothing

congress decades before that. if the willings capture both house and senate, the odds of obama winning in 2012 go up says steven gillon a university of oklahoma professor. if the democrats keep both congress then republicans will hover over him and he'll have less room to maneuver. that's what you've been talking about, joe. >> not just me. while ideologues will cheer if democrats hang on by two or three seats and say, see, we showed you, the white house says privately, that's the scenario they fear the most. they do not want to have the responsibility without the power. and if it's going to be within two or three votes in the house, they want boehner as speaker. >> they probably won't have to deal with that. again, we talked about it before. you can't just assume it will be better for him to lose. he must -- whatever the outcome, democrats narrowly hold or

republicans take a majority. the president must act, must make changes. i have a piece on time.com this morning that says really as much as it's a cliche now, the clinton playbook is his best bet, confront republicans where he strongly disagrees with them and push them to the right, but work with them on the many issues on which they have common ground, education, afghanistan, deficit reduction, trade. he must be productive and centrist. >> does he have that in him? we were talking about that after our first conversation early this morning, does he have it in him to say i messed up, i should have reached out to mitch mcconnell, this "new york times" story saying he didn't talk to him for 18 months. >> if you look at the way he's reacted in the past, you would say no. if you look at his lack of relationships with republicans, you would say no. he wants to get stuff done. he's not in the office to just sit there, in the office to get things done. if republicans are in the majority, he must get their cooperation. >> bill clinton did it.

he reached out to republicans who he did not like. >> but he had such a history of doing that. if you looked at bill clinton in 1994 and look back to his history before that, you could have predicted what he would development when he lost the arkansas governorship, he was good at making lemonade out of lemons. the truth is in barack obama's political career he has not been knocked on his keister and had to pick himself back um again. so we'll see. it's a big test not just of his political strategy but character. >> you take bill clinton, for instance. bill clinton came in in '92 as this progressive champion, a hero. when he got beaten in '94, he did what willie and i do every time he gets in trouble. he called dick morris. who would have expected that? >> pick up the bat phone. >> pick up the bat phone.

so let's ask this question. who is -- i won't say who is barack obama's dick morris, but it does beg a question. does he have a republican, does he have a conservative that he knows that he can say, okay, friend, i'm in trouble, and i need you to come here and help me course correct. >> i come back to the same person, ken guber stein who is ronald reagan's last chief of staff who voted for obama. he announced his support for barack obama before the election. >> does barack obama like -- >> they know people in common he has october kafshlly been consulted by the white house. >> guys, thanks very much. willie, what's up next? >> sarah palin was on the campaign trail over the weekend, speaking of the former alaska governor. she rolled out a new zinger about president obama that i think you'll enjoy and you'll probably hear it a lot over the next week or so. sarah palin on the trail when "morning joe" comes right back.

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oh, please. please don't let capehart do it again. he gets to into it. it's either there or it's not. you can't force it. >> it was like "when harry met

sally." >> like forced, like yes, yes. >> i'll have what capehart is having. all right. sarah palin, campaigning for republican candidates at the rnc in orlando, firing up the troops, getting ready for a presidential campaign. she was able in one thought to get in a good line about barack obama. >> you're lucky, you're going to learn a little more about my state here in the coming weeks because there's this docu series coming out, called "sarah palin's alaska," and the producers are already ready with their sequel. it's going to be based on a place that's near and dear to our president's heart. it's called "barack obama's golf

courses." it starts taping sometime november 2012. >> because he's going to play golf after he loses. >> i don't really care. i'm going to say if you look at that and listen to that and read his story, you tell me if she has the discipline to continue to make money and do what she's doing, which would be the smart thing, or if she has the discipline not to run for president. she will. she's got all the people pouring the kool-aid, you, madam president, you're going to be the best president, pouring kool-aid down her throat. >> we also need to talk about barack obama going golfing a week and a half away from the election. it's fine for republicans. democrats a little concerned. you're doing what? >> this one i want to apologize in advance for. >> but i love these. >> but it's not me. it's san angelo, texas, station giving a weather report.

an oddly shaped weather system moving across texas, cooler aloft up top and afternoon thunderstorms. >> is that a weather system in your pants or are you just glad to see me. >> i don't get it. >> why can't bill karins -- >> trouble down on the border, too. >> what was that? >> i'm just reporting the weather if you're waking uperly this morning. >> what was that? >> if you're uperly in san angelo, you should know there's a giant weather system. >> a giant en georged weather system. >> oh, my goodness gracious. >> afternoon t storms everybody. pack your umbrella. >> i'm scared. >> that's the end of this morning's report. >> if you're like in oklahoma, having that part of the weather

system just resting -- >> stop. this is a great example of the story speaking for itself. >> some snorkeling going on there. we'll be back. [ william ] three years ago, i started my first real job

as a part time sales associate with walmart. when william came in i knew he had everything he needed to be a leader in this company. [ william ] after a couple of months, i was promoted to department manager. like, wow, really? me? a year later, i was promoted again. walmart even gave me a grant for my education. recently, he told me he turned down a job at one of the biggest banks in the country. this is where i want to be. i fully expect william will be my boss one day. my name is william and i work at walmart. ♪

but i'm not just here on a personal mission, and i'm not just here for whoop dy do.

frankly, there are a few things about this election that have gotten me somewhere between disturbed and ticked off. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's the top of the hour. let me just say joe scarborough and mika brzezinski and mark halperin and john heilemann, we're not here just for the whoopdi doo either. >> joining the table t founder of political blog 538.com, nate silver is here. >> this is very exciting, nate. how are you doing? >> great. how are you. >> a lot of races to go. we'll talk about that in a little bit. chris, first of all, halls an e-mail. nate, of course, he tracks all this -- it's as good as it gets. all the kids out there, they follow nate, he's like the pid piper, political prognosticating. he said after the election he's

going to focus on the bcs bowl. >> john says achl hurst and williams are undefeated. maybe alabama could play the winner for the national championship live on "morning joe." >> live on "morning joe," how exciting. that's about as good as an alabama-boise state game. that's fine. by the way, my wife just texted me and said little jack when he see it is football clips, he's yelling go bama. we're training him early there. >> these are his first words. >> okay. could be worse, could be worse. former arkansas governor mike huckabee is speaking out against what he calls the republican establishment. in a radio interview yesterday, muck bee hosted huckabee and others. huckabee called the lack of support part of the elitist country club attitude. >> unfortunate think there is an elitism within the republican establishment. it's almost, again, tosh blunt,

the kind of country club attitude that we're not sure there's certain people we really want as members of the club. and we're not going to vote them in. we don't mind them showing up to events to put up signs and making phone calls and going door-to-door making those pesky trips that we don't like to do, but we really don't want them dining with us in the main dining room. >> i know how that feels, by the way. >> you do? >> yeah. i can eat in the kitchen. >> you know what it feels like? in your political career or television career? >> actually both. television and political and at home. i can eat in the kitchen standing up. >> i hear you actually. >> the thing is, though, that is a bit ridiculous. we love mike huckabee. this isn't about her not being well come in the main dining room. this is about the fact she can't win and everybody knew she

couldn't win before she got elected. everybody knows mike castle would be walking to victory right now. karl rove doesn't discriminate against people. he wants winners. >> i agree that's his motivation. i think huckabee is right in that carl and others have used language not as welcoming as the new activists. >> week like what? >> he demeaned her when she got the nomination. >> well, i demeaned her. we all demeaned her, but not personally. it's just she can't win. >> he personally demeaned her. >> what did he say? >> i forget. he said something like she was nuts or irresponsible. i forget what it was. >> i don't know that i would say just because somebody dabbled in witchcraft. >> just because they had their home foreclosed on -- >> the republican party is going through this big crisis even as they're succeeding in the merms. >> christine o'donnell is completely different. this is a woman that said that

there are -- i think there are mice with fully functioning human brains. i don't want to knock her for that. do we really want to hold christine mcdonald out as the test of whether we're the exclusive party or not. >> i tell you why not, joe. she's not going to win. this is silly t. conversation is silly. >> isn't this just mike huckabee teeing himself up with the tea party? she's hitting those populist notes. he wants to be well positioned. >> i want to get to that "washington post" story. here is what karl rove says. he says that republicans are not threatened by the tea party and calls the movement, quote, patriotic. >> rush limbaugh said you feel threatened by the tea party because you and the other establishment folks didn't have anything to do with forming it. >> i welcome it. i think it's one of the most positive and whole some developments. what he took out of context was an interview with a bunch of --

these are ordinary americans from main street america who have created a massive grassroots effort driven by a sentiment in this country, and i consider it to be whole some, patriotic and incredibly positive for the country. >> i got that mental image. karl rove in an interview with a bunch of hostile german reporters. see those old germans with the helmets -- >> like prussian military -- >> we have ways of making you talk. >> yes. this is too fun. let's talk reality for a second. let's go through some of the tea party favorites this year. christine mcdonald, no way she's going to win. >> o'donnell, she's 15 or 20 points down in all the polls. delaware is an i understandigo . >> what about co-corks ken buck was ahead. now bennet, i guess that's

tightened up. in a republican year, does that end up going ken buck's way? >> i think about 60-40 republican. i think a couple weeks ago it was more 75-25. you've seen the race tighten. in illinois, for example, mark kirk is doing pretty well, ahead in the last three or four polls, vsh moderate, not a tea party guy at all. you see the moderate candidates doing better at the end. >> let's go to kentucky from ill floi, rand paul, another favorite of the tea party. rand paul, is he moving comfortably ahead? >> my hunch is he might end up winning by eight or ten points. kentucky is a weird state, still democratic at the state level. from the polling i've seen, jack conway's last-minute gam bit may not have gone over well, looks a little desperate. >> the gam bit saying that he didn't love jesus, that rand paul doesn't love jesus? >> i think it's the way the debate went down, where con say seemed immature.

these candidates are young this year. he and engine newell yus and o'donnell, they're young and maybe seem a bit -- maybe immature is the wrong word. >> let's go from kentucky down to florida where marco rubio, another favorite of the tea partyers looks like he's locking this down. >> he's a young guy, a strong candidate, period. if charlie crist comes within ten points that would be surprising. he's in very good shape. the key thing in florida is what happens to the governor's race there i think. >> let's go through -- you deal in percentages which scare me. >> he's calculated the chances that the incumbent party will lose control of each senate seat. >> let's start in pennsylvania. that race has also tightened up, toomey looked like a lock. but now it's 83% -- you think he has an 83% chance of winning

why? >> most of the polls still have toomey with a small lead. elsewhere in the midwest republicans are doing well in ohio and michigan and all these states and wisconsin, for example. i think it's going to be close, but i think sestak maybe waited a little too long for the surge -- we'll see. >> now out in nevada, an absolutely fascinating race. i still have no idea how angle is ahead, but it comes down to the fact that harry reid is extraordinarily unpopular in his own state, 68%. >> ordinarily she wouldn't win the election, ordinarily you wouldn't get reid elected with a 41% approval rating. harry reid's folks are still confident they'll win the race. the public polling says it's basically a tie, maybe a point or two -- >> we asked her to be on our show and she wouldn't go. an interesting article over the week end about candidates choosing their shows in order to

make money, just being afraid to actually be asked questions. >> some people are just scared. mark kirk, 64%. kirk is a guy that's had a back and forth -- this is sort of the last-one-standing race. right now kirk is inching ahead in quite a few polls. >> he's been a point or two ahead in four straight polls which is the only times all year you've had more than two polls in a row toward one candidate in that state pretty much. the number of undecided voters are still pretty high which means people don't like their choices. you go with the polls on that one, he has a one or two-point lead which is a slight advantage. >> something big has happened in california for democrats. this is possibly the reddest of the years, california has gone ink, like dark, dark blue. carly fiorina, her support is collapsing. you have her at 19%, 19% chance of winning. >> i think she might be being

dragged down by meg whitman, frankly, where fiorina had a good fund-raising quarter. whitman has really collapsed and is ten or 12 points behind in the polls. >> and bringing fiorina with her. >> i think people have trouble disassociating them t. two female ceos. >> they're tied together. let's go to connecticut. another female ceo, linda mcmahon. there were a few days where it looked like she was going to catch blumenthal. her numbers have just collapsed. >> well, i think here in new york we see so many of her adds, we think of her as being a big deal. she's so saturated the market with advertisements where people are tuning her out at this stage. >> or turned off. >> and ms. mcdonald. >> o'donnell. >> whatever. >> there's a one in a thousand clans. >> oh, nate, now there's not.

>> you're probably right. >> mark, let's look at the big picture here. the democrats locking it down in california. there are a lot of different trends going on. you can say republicans are doing great in the south, pretty darn well in the midwest. democrats doing well in california, possibly up in washington state. but the senate is going to be so fascinating. all the crosscurrents. >> crosscurrents and a lot couldn't be decided on election day, particularly the ones out west. alaska, washington, california, ir think the twro big variables that are crosscurrents right now are is the enthusiasm gap still. there therefore, these polls aren't screening. if you can't predict what the electorate is going to be like, it's possible in the california races the polls could be up. on the other hand, labor is more engaged than people thought they

would be. they're going out to try to save the majorities in a big way, spending more money. those make the polls a little less than accurate prediction. >> rick scott, linda mcmahon and meg whitman have spent $243 million. >> money can't buy you love. >> no, it can't. did you see "the washington post" yesterday? the things that really make your tifrd of both parties category, "the washington post" reporting that companies received federal bailout money giving away chunks of cash mainly to republican candidates, 23 company that is got $1 billion or more through the t.a.r.p. gave $1.4 million to candidates in september. some still owe money to the government. >> nice. >> the finding comes as the debate continues about the source of undisclosed donations from republican groups. >> i want to talk about the gap, we were talking about, john, the intensity gap. because it matters so much

because i can't tell you the number of republican conservative friends, people that i've known for years that would never say publicly, never say on tv, the sort of things i said on tv in '06 and '08. they'd be fighting the good fight, going on cable news, republicans must win. you talk to them, boy, i'm glad you're excited about the republican party. what are you excited about? tell me. >> they say i don't even know if i'll going to go out and vote. i heard it in '06 and in '08. there are a lot who said i didn't want republicans to win. that explained republicans getting crushed two cycles in a row. you can't underestimate the number of democrats who feel like that now. i'm going to go out in rain to vote for a party that hasn't done what they told me they were going to do in '08? that swings election cycles. >> in a midterm election it does t. data suggests this big

enthusiasm gap. anecdotally, i can say since labor day i've been out in the country a lot over the course of the last seven weeks, you feel it. you talk to democrats and they're voters, business people, average people, democrats are dispirited. they might go or might not go to the polls. every republican is fired up and ready to get out for their candidates. >> help us out. 7:30 election nice, "bowling for dollars" on an upstate new york channel i pick up on the radio. i want to know by 7:30 how this election is going to go. what race do i need to be looking at so i don't have to watch all night? >> if there were an upset in connecticut, kind of a sign of the apocalypse for democrats. democrats could do well out east and we think it's safe, and then -- >> we'll be up late. >> you go ahead and watch it. i don't think washington will be a lot different the next day

anyway. no, it won't. we do know that right now. that whether it's speaker boehner or speaker pelosi, it's just not going to be a huge difference. >> that's right. you have to get your sweep slooep for our show in historic studio 8h. coming up, chuck todd has the headlines. first bill karins with a check ton forecast. bill? >> good morning, mika. if you haven't seen this video, it was shot yesterday afternoon, just outside of dallas in rice, texas. up close and personal with this tornado. it damaged the high school. there were numerous injuries. it skips over the highway and cars you can see racing away from it. an incredible scene there south of the texas area yesterday. we had tornadoes overnight out of cull man, alabama, reporting structural damage in the downtown area. now the storms are over the top of atlanta, georgia. not tornadoes, but atlanta's

morning commute is probably going to be the worst we've seen in months or even this year. we'll watch heavy rain along with lightning and small hail. as far as the forecast in the northeast, rain will move through north carolina into virginia. d.c., expect rain this afternoon. philadelphia and new york, maybe showers later on today. primarily today will be dry. the other big story is what's happening in the middle of the country. a huge windstorm is going to be heading your way, probably one of the biggest windstorms we've seen in about 10 to 12 years, expecting wind gusts even in chicago up to 60 miles an hour. on lake michigans, they're saying they could have 20-foot waves on lek michigan. that should be an incredible scene. if you're flying through the midwest, do it today, not tuesday or wednesday. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks.

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my tax returns are public. i've gone well beyond the point of disclosure. the bottom line is people want to focus on these issues because they're wrong on the important issues. >> he doesn't want to release them because he doesn't believe in transparency. i created the office of open government for the first time in the history of our state. >> i've never had a heckler at the debate, but always in the audience. >> that's the way it is. welcome to the nfl. >> go ahead. >> let me finish. i've had this heckler going on for two minutes here. >> i have to be honest with myself. the republican party and the right wing of that party went so far right, it's exactly why marco rubio stayed there, the same reason i left. he wants to overturn -- listen to me women watching, overturn roe vs. wade. he does not support stem cell

research. these are extreme views that i'm not comfortable with. >> it's important that we grow this economy. obviously florida has to diversify. it's the very reason we shouldn't federalize marco rubio. he is thinking of ideology that will put the middle class in the hole forever. >> welcome back to "morning joe." >> joining frus wash, nbc news chief white house correspondent and co-heft of msnbc's "the daily rundown" chuck todd. >> good morning, team. >> we were looking at the bcs poll -- i'm just joking. seriously. nate sill verse from east lansing. is michigan state good, chuck? how good is michigan state? >> i don't know. if you've got to use a fake field goal to beat notre dame, a team that just got wiped out by the midshipman. by the way, go navy, good for

them, i've got to question. i have an uncle that went to michigan state. got to love it. >> if boise state plays alabama, come on, who is going to win that game? if they play a hundred times? >> haven't they done the odds there. alabama would open as about a 5 1/2, six-point favorite. >> tcu? >> tcu i think is the best of the three, tcu, utah and boise. if i were alabama or oregon, that's the team i would fear. >> if you're baem do you fear oregon more or auburn more? >> first of all, when is the last time the iron bowl decided something this big? yushltly either auburn is up and alabama is down or alabama is up and auburn is down. i was talking to gibbs about this yesterday. >> gibbs has to be happy, auburn number one.

is cam newton the front-runner for the heisman? >> doesn't he have to be? who else. >> we'll be having -- >> it's pretty exciting stuff. >> it is exciting. oregon, by the way, might be the fastest team in the country. >> oregon-usc, kids, watch saturday night. crazy lane kiffin. >> can you ask chuck about the merms and some of the races tightening. >> if i have to. >> let's go to our home state, florida. is charlie crist finished? >> toast. you could tell at that debate yesterday. he's aggressive because he's behind. >> let's go to california next. >> he's not been able to answer the flip-flop questions. >> carly fiorina, is she toast? >> no, she's not. what's interesting there is she has a better shot than meg whitman. meg whitman feels like she's on her last -- >> million dollars? >> i have to say that new ad meg

whitman put out her opening statement is, i know you believe this is an unhappy choice, that's never a good closing act. >> that's never a good way. that's how i used to ask girls out. i understand it's an unhappy choice -- >> let's talk about some of traces that all of us around the table are going to be excited to see how it unfolds because yes just don't know. let's start in illinois. kirk and giannoulias, this race is fascinating. >> it is. look at the fact that we're still sitting on double digit undecided. when you see polls like that, first thing you have to ask yourself this late in the game, is boy, did the pollster push, push these undecideds, push them to give an answer. in this case in illinois, this is a resulted of the fact that nobody likes either candidate. both candidates are upside down on their negative. a classic hold-your-nose vote. under those circumstances maybe the democratic base can will

alexi to a victory there, and that's what have -- republicans might be more nervous about illinois than any of the tight senate races right now. >> let's go from ill floi illino pennsylvania. now it's tight, sestak and toomey. who wins? >> i talked to a democratic operative, i can find three points in turnout, whether it's african-american turnout or in philadelphia. ki find the three points. he means that not sort of finding hidden votes. but a meaning that turnout underestimates a democratic vote. >> but there is no doubt that ed rendell will find hidden votes. that's what he does. >> orphan tom votes. >> give me a number and i'll get it to you going out of philadelphia. final lip to the heartland where we're talking about all these midwest states. right now ohio went for alabama

in '08. tim, a couple of tight races. for the governor's race, two good guys, two guys i served with. i love john kasic, strickland is also a goods guy. which way is that breaking? >> i love this race for the reason you just pointed out. this isn't a race about somebody's awkward personality or somehow problems with some stand they took on an issue that nobody cares about in this mermd election cycle. this is a ideological fight, philosophical, two people have a positive view of both candidates. they're hard hitting, don't get me wrong. >> but two good guys. >> kasic has got a little bit of an advantage. ten times you hold this election he wins six times. it's that close. the ohio democratic party might be the best state -- best run state party in the country that matters that could save one or

two house seats for the democrats and could be the difference between -- remember lofton in '94. he lost in '94, got his seat back in '96. deja vu all over again. >> deja vu. quickly, nate, what do you think, kasic or strickland? sgli think kasic. i think portman is running so well -- >> what about you, mark? >> kasic. >> kasic. >> we all agree it's going to be really close. chuck todd, thank you so much. we'll see you on "the daily rundown" coming up right after "morning joe." straight ahead, the national journal's major garrett will be here. his latest article to discuss what mitch mcconnell is doing to try to make obama a one-term president. when we come back, the "morning joe" football frenzy. now we can talk about football. highlights including brett favre's sunday night showdown against his former team, the packers. we'll be right back with more "morning joe." ♪ [ upbeat instrumental ]

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i've tried all kinds of jeans, button fly, zipper fly, you name it. nothing works better than the all new open fly jean from yanger. >> introducing the first jeans with no fly whatsoever. >> with open fly jeans, it's always out and camera ready. >> real open fly jeans. >> take it from me, brett favre. i give them a thumbs up. >> camera ready. >> that is terrible. >> by the way, the "new york post" reporting on this like we would expect them to because we love and respect them more than any other paper in the world. >> wasn't me. >> "not mine." >> joining us right now mark florio, the founder of

profootballtalk.com. let's talk about the man with the open fly jeans, brett favre going back to lambeau last night, throwing three picks and booed by the fans there. what did you make of that? >> he wasn't booed as loudly as he was last year when he made his first return to lambeau field and the vikings beat the packers. this time around it wasn't quite as loud. at the end of the day he couldn't pull off another miracle. >> why are they booing him? he was a hero there. >> at the end of the day he ends up playing for the minnesota vikings, one of the most hated rivals. it's hard to undue that venom when that happens. i think actually if they beat favre a couple times, it makes it easier for the packers fans to rei'm brace him. it's hard for his legacy, if you keep beating the packers, they'll never take you back.

>> i can't see yankee fans ever booing jeter. >> if he went to play for the red sox? >> they wouldn't boo him. he would don't that, first of all. >> did the sox boo damon. >> but damon is not jeter. >> he was better when he played on the sox. he hit a grand slam 2004 right field. i'm sorry. go ahead. >> pittsburgh steelers did all right without ben roethlisberger. they keep winning. they needed a little hell from a bizarre call at the end of the game. what happened here? >> this is a rule applied correctly by the officials. when you do a replay of a fumble called on the field not a fumble, it was a scrum in the end zone. they applied the rule the right way. this is the kind of thing that could cause the nfl to change the rule. you don't need to have a camera to tell you who recovered the football. you come out of the pile with the ball, you've got possession.

it's one of those things where people see it and something doesn't seem exactly right. the nfl is good about taking bad examples like this and tweaking the rules as needed. i think we may see thing like that change. >> strange ending. what about the redskins? >> well, you know, they got lucky yesterday. they didn't look very good on offense. when jay cutler, the quarterback of the bears, through this. four interceptions in one game. it's enough to win. >> the redskins are doing better under shanahan in quite some time. >> the nfc is wide open. at the same time the nfl has to love it because end of december, everybody is going to be alive except maybe the panthers and 49ers. >> speaking of the nfc being wide open, saints blown out at home by the browns. >> a little bit of the super bowl hangover.

they did an extensive victory lap. you can't be a run-dimensional team on offense. >> my atlanta falcons. >> best record in the nfc, 5-2. >> that will last another couple weeks. >> good one tonight. giants in dallas. >> mike florio, thanks so much. our next guest has a new book based on a provocative question. what would the world be like if islam did not exist? that's next on "morning joe." if you're in northern new jersey tonight, if you just happen to be there, stop by bookends on ridgewood avenue in ridgewood. >> free beer. >> free beer apparently. willie will be signing copies of "american freak show" 7:00 tonight. >> hometown signing. >> hometown signing. very excited. being with my people. >> that's great. >> you're going to love it. you're going to love willie. we'll be right back with more "morning joe." tdd# 1-800-345-2550 what if every atm was free?

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the former vice chairman of the national intelligence council of the cia, graham fuller, author of "a world without islam." you say tick islam out of the equation and we still have the same potential relationship or lack thereof, intention between the east and the west? >> that's exactly right. it sounds very counterintuitive. >> it really does. >> if you go back and look over history, you find incredible tensions and competitions between the meeftd and what was then the west. you find it before christianity even, you find it when both east and west were christian, incredible battles between the roman and greek churches, and

you find it today. >> and you even say terrorism, the role of terrorism would be in the same spot that it's in now, even earlier? >> i'm saying, if you look at what the primary grievances an concerns of news limb worthe mu are, whoever they are, whether muslims or not muslims that they would possibly be react violently to western intrusions and invasions. >> your question in this book is not why 9/11 happened, but why it didn't happen earlier? >> exactly. i think for americans one of the most important messages is here is that history didn't begin with 9/11. flerds, there's a long period of several hundred years when the west was and still is the unchallenged power in the world and able to work its will in the middle east over periods of

french, british imperialism, occupation of these countries, colonies running their energy, sources of energy exploiting them, et cetera. those are grievances that wouldn't go away even if they were not muslim. >> now, there are some people obviously that will be offended by this argument, will suggest that you're trying to apologize for islam and the extremism in parts of islam. it seems to me the great takeaway from this is stop following the rabbit trail, stop thinking this is about faith. instead, this is just about hard-nosed geopolitical realities. there are people who feel like they have been underfoot for a long time, and they are rising up and striking out. it has more to do with politics and power than it does with faith. >> you've summed up the book beautifully. that's absolutely the case. >> what's been the reaction

though to this concept? >> i think -- certainly i think muslims very much resonate with the book because they know i'm talking about issues that are on their mind. but what astonishes me is so much why, say, americans who we ourselves suffered under colonial rule from the british seemed to be less sensitive or less at tuned to what it would mean to have the presence of foreign armies on our soil kicking down doors. let's say chinese troops on american soil hunting down enemies of china and doing the same? there would be a violent reaction. >> nobody around this table is apologizing for extremists, but again, this is extraordinarily important to understand. we can scapegoat a religion, and maybe that makes us feel good, maybe that's gets some people elected. but if we want to protect this country, we need to understand what is beneath that, that

again, this is angry -- people from ij into, from saudi arabia who see their countries gain a lot of money, a lot of power in recent years, but not quite the respect and not quite the position of the world that they believe they deserve. >> i don't think it's even just a question of respect, but actually of huge on going military operations in these areas that are really incredibly costly, blood, treasure, everything else in the region. >> has anything from the obama's policies compared to the bush policies been more in line with your view of the world? >> i think obama absolutely gets it in terms of understanding the grievances and concerns of people elsewhere in the world much better than the bush administration ever did. i'm not sure the policies have changed significantly to reflect that. that's what very much concerns me. as you say, joe, if the problem is islam, then you begin to

treat these problems with one perspective. also, it's a never-ending problem. >> by the way, that, again, is more comforting for us to scapegoat a religion and maybe easier for tous put our arms around, but this problem is far more complicated. >> exactly, exactly. >> fascinating. >> final word. >> so i hope very much that at least people will find this book -- will rearrange their thinking considerably and the nature of the problem. if you change the nature of the problem, you change the nature of the solution by which you approach it. >> graham fuller, thank you so much. the book is "a world without islam." >> fascinating. >> where is willie? willie, what's coming up next? i'm in the green room. look at this. how exciting is this. hughey lewis on "morning joe." hi has a new album out but more importantly he's a san francisco giants fan. talk to huey in just a few minutes. hey, did you ever finish last month's invoices?

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>> i'm afraid you're just too darn loud. next, please. >> remember that? 51 past the hour. you should remember that. >> don't look at me. you are the one who is like a cultural i will literal. >> okay. that was huey lewis who will be very patient with me, i sure do making a cameo appearance in the 1985 classic ""back to the future"" it wasn't huey's onscreen performance he is known for but the movie is unmistakable. the movie's unmistakable soundtrack. what, after all, would ""back to the future"" be without "the power of love?" >> nothing. >> the film celebrates its 25th anniversary, 25, huey lewis and the news is out with a brand new album "soulsville." let's take a listen to a part of the title track. ♪

>> that takes me back to like high school or something or -- that takes you took what kindergarten? ""back to the future."" >> that bluesy voice. it is great to have you here. >> welcome. >> kindergarten, joe? not quite. >> i was '87. anyway so, what's theaterry? "morning joe" and music? >> i was just saying our new record is called "soulsville" and a tribute to the stacks period, you know, the very fertile, shall we say, short period in american popular music in memphis where the backup band for a lot of these original artists was booker t. and the mgs two black guys and two white guys that couldn't put their picture on the cover in a segregated south. music, really flying along, 50% black, 50% white people working together. nowadays, society is integrated but music has become segregated, black music, country music, which is a shame and it occurs me political opinions are the

same way. right-winger, watch a whole bunch of shows where nobody disagrees with you. a left winger, you watch a whole bunch of shows nobody disagrees with you. >> oh, my. >> at least you have some discourse on this show, that's why i'm a fan. >> we are sort of all voices, right? >> it was a radical concept we came up with here, we said, why don't we get people who disagree talking to each other. >> fantastic. >> nicely. >> that is what america is supposed to be be all about i think. >> thank you so much. >> yeah. greatly appreciate it. so, let's talk about the album. >> why not. >> no 'cause i want to. >> okay. >> but talk about the tribute and where you came up with the concept. >> it was my manager's idea and, you know, we were reluctant at first, the idea was not to do the chestnuts, not, you know, no "knock on wood" or "midnight hour" but go deep near the catalog and a lot -- a couple of johnny taylor things, rufus thomas, solomon burke and so on. so it really was a labor of love. we picked 20 songs, worked them all up and then went to memphis

and recorded them at arden studios, historic arden studios. >> what is your favorite song? >> off the record? >> yeah. >> tough for me t is hard. i like the otis redding thing, "just one more day," i like the title track, "soulsville", a joe tex thing. so many, joe. you guy go to the bite whole record. >> not just half. >> i'm going to. very excited. talk about "become to the future," showed your cameo there 25. >> how old are we? >> i nail it had. >> one with take. boom. boom. >> hmm. huey. >> 25 years. this -- you know, this is an interesting movie, it really did sort of resonate. it wasn't "citizen kane" but resonated with our generation. >> is it is not over, still growing, amazingly. just been to britain, where it is a big deal. and we are all sort of assembled, the whole cast here in new york. there's a function today.

dinner last night with bob zemeckis. >> oh, wow. >> very sweet about it. it is interesting. everybody is embracing it as their legacy. it continues to grow. >> unbelievable. you know, willie, you know i grew up a musician. >> yeah. >> i was absorbed in music, lived in my room. listened -- and i always had to relate to these guys like the great musicians, like shooting heroin and -- >> little crazy. >> ending up dead in london flats, but huey lewis comes along and i read a "rolling stone" interview and all huge sports fans. i still remember this is strange what you remember, huey lewis could hit a 7-iron 180 yards. >> no. >> i remember it. >> if i blade it. >> i read it in "rolling stone." an album called "sports," real guys. >> real guys. >> and he still is a big sports fan. >> this could be the year for mr. huey lewis, huge had giants

fan? >> extremely exciting for us in san francisco. the giant does everything right. i don't know if you have been to the ballpark or not it is a super classy organization. >> cha-cha bowl? >> yeah, cha-cha bowl, the jerk chicken they have. the food is excellent. the unis are perfect, cream uniforms. you know, they do everything right. and so it is really -- really neat. >> we need to go there. >> i heard it is a great -- chris, you say the park is absolutely great, right? chris? >> we had a hospitality suite where they served brazed short ribs with creamy polenta and unbelievable caesar salad. and on the music was billy holiday and stan getz. at a ballpark. >> my guy, not looking at the game. >> i was there last week, first time. amazing. >> nice, right? >> so do the giants pull it out? do they end up winning? >> yeah, i think giants in seven, i hope, because we couldn't do an anthem till the seventh game. >> huey lewis, it is great to

have you here. the new album is "soulsville." get t thank you very much. >> nice what you said about "morning joe." >> we will take t we appreciate it. the national journal's ron brown steen and major garrett, next on "morning joe." i do a lot of different kinds of exercise,

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it is important that people be able to talk to each other across political lines. i think it is important i irritate brit hume and bill

crystal every sunday and that they fire back at me and they may raise their eyebrows and make faces but you know what these people are honest with me and i don't question their integrity and why my integrity has to be questioned -- to me, i'm still in the storm of it, but i just thought it was unfair. >> hear hear. you're among friends. >> i expect that i expect brit to punch me as i'm leaving. >> howling double standard in the culture of npr, appearing on fox is a sin. and in the culture of npr, for an african-american man like juan, regardless of his extraordinary stature, to be there and be kind of a bill cosby liberal, not a down the line liberal, is a sin as well. they have been gunning for him for years and been wanting to get him and they got him. >> welcome back to morning joe. top of the hour. we have mark hill prin with us and joining the table, political director for the atlantic media company and national journal's editorial director, ron brownstein, and the national

journal's congressional correspondent, major garrett, and this morning, the national journal is unveiling their newly redesigned magazine and website and the new issue contains many must-read articles and commentary which we will be getting to in a moment, include be, obviously, an interview with president obama and the "new york times" -- >> let me ask you. >> look at the headline. big article. >> wow. >> 40-year-old -- how exciting. mika, let me ask you about the clips we had going in -- do you think npr could have handled this juan williams issue any worse than they have? >> um, nope, i don't think so i think they have just said, here we are going to mess up in a big way and you all enjoy it over there at fox and they are. i mean, you know this was all about him working for fox. >> mark halperin, i have next to talk to somebody that doesn't have an ideological dog in the fight. doesn't say juan williams -- i'm talking about like a lot of democrats, you know what a

republican is going to tell me, juan williams was fired for what reason? 'cause he worked on fox. >> i cannot believe they are going to stand with this position that they did the right thing now. >> is that -- >> they handle it had badly but standing by the decision. i still can't figure out a plausible defense for firing him for what he said. >> he fired 'cause he was on fox. >> i don't even make up a defense. and it plays into in terms of a ladies and gentlemen significance it plays into the right's view of not just npr but the old media in generalful i think it is fantastic for republicans to fire up their base. talk radio and the internet and cable is going to be filled with it for another few days. >> i hope we can have the constructive conversation. just what the world needs, more ways to fire up the base. >> ron, can you make up a good excuse for npr for firing juan williams? >> you don't know what the whole history is it is always uncomfortable, i think, when a commentator is fired for the views they express. i mean, i think that is -- that is different if you had if he was still, as he was, 25 years ago, the "washington post," 35 years ago, maybe, the

"washington post" beat reporter at the white house. it is a different question. i'm uncomfortable with the idea of someone being removed for expressing views within any kind of a boundary, but, look, i don't know what all the history is there and i think it is -- maybe be a reflection of just the polarization of the media and how difficult it is to serve two masters as divergent as that. >> and major, you're -- >> i have what you might call a unique point of view. >> perspective. yes. >> you worked with fox and you certainly understand that wherever you go, you were writing for the national journal now turks is straight down the middle but for a lot of leftists, you're going to automobiles the guy that worked at fox. >> journalism is about accountability and people either trust what you write and say or they don't trust you what you write and you say. when i was with fox, i say if you have a problem with the bigger company, watch what i say, watch what i do i covered democrats for 14 months road during that presidential

campaign, people would come up and some say i can't believe you work from that network, why don't you get away from that i love what you do, i admire what you do, i just wished you work some place differently. why couldn't than the standard for juan william? >> he got fireded because he worked at fox. >> because of that long-standing relationship with fox, it was becoming increasingly and juan and i had some conversations about this that npr was increasingly unhappy with him, it was getting blowback from listeners about seeing juan so often on fox. that speaks to a problem that neither fox nor npr can solve they don't want to solve, which is the polarization of american media. for a certain amount of marketing points of view, fox wants to keep that polarization saying, look, we are different, dramatically different, you can see how we are different, if you like that difference, you better come over here and you better stay here. that is an embedded part of the marketing that surrounds what happens in the news division at fox. >> a concern that -- >> no not at all. >> he is not a -- he says things that drive me crazy sometimes.

>> what fascinates me about what we just saw, i know the relationship between brit and juan. personally, it is very war. ideologically it could not be anymore hostile. times brit will say, juan, you are just crazy, he will say that on the air but they get along and discourse in a way that fox finds helpful. >> major's point seems to be right tonight. is the media version of what lindsey graham said to me a couple years ago it is not enough to be -- people no longer stay is not enough to be for the things you are for, you have to be against the people they are against as well t is very hard, he think, in this media culture to be on both sides of a divide as substantial in the viewership and audience of fox and npr. it is just -- there is a kind of sense of each side, particularly on seems on the npr side, inherent disloyalty giving credibility to other side. >> mark, and we have talked about it a lot here, you and i have talked about it a lot, this show is a safe house where people can come and talk whether they are on the right or the

left but there aren't many places left like that outside these three hours. >> i often say, huey lewis was right. he said that this -- that this show stands out for that reason. and juan williams' place on fox, which is defended by brit and others, gives them a kind of fig leaf credibility to say we bring on divergent voices. there aren't very many and i -- you know, frankly, when i watch him on, he is not always treated with that much respect. he is not treated with the kind of respect that -- >> frequently outnumbered. >> yeah. >> let me ask you what is going on what is going on within fox? how much would they be actively strategizing about taking advantage of this for publicity, for energizing their viewers? >> i don't think it is any coincidence the day it happened, he got a huge contract at fox and fox planted a flag in the ground saying he is ours, he is going to stay ours and if you are outraged, this is where you need to be. that is an embedded part of roger ales' dna.

>> had to love that day, another media outlet blundered their way right into his hands. >> you said it joe. >> what ever you think about it as a political force, as a maz,et tactic of playing to the sense of grievance it is very powerful and this feeds into that sense of grievance. >> i know juan is in the moment and when hurt in moment, you have a sense of justified personal outrage, but i'm sure he is, at many levels, uncomfortable with many of this about him. any of us who are in this business like a certain amount of the conversation to be about us but we don't want all the conversation to be about us. >> on that point, he has to be very careful. >> i agree. >> that he doesn't -- i thought bill o'reilly i thought was a bit condescending to him after he got fired. >> vet. >> and walked him down and it was like he was working for bill o'reilly, juan has to be very careful here. i also -- >> bill thinks that about everybody. >> i have got to say this, though, about npr, and got to

get this out. for me, first of all, it's just a terrible, terrible mistake on npr's part. they -- i think they are -- the person that runs it should be fired. and i say that not because i loathe npr, because i'm a conservative that's always loved npr, i've always listened to their morning edition and all things considered, i listen on the weekends. i'm sorry, there just respect conservatives disagree with this, you don't have many outlets like npr or pbs. they provide services that other media outlets don't provide. so i just got to say as a fan of npr and as a conservative, i hope they straighten up. right now, they have their heads stuck in the sand like it is 1978. i cannot believe how foolish their ceo has been. >> if i may, i think they fell into the cable ugly trap. they fell right into t. >> they did fall into it. >> instead of making a mistake,

which is exactly what they did and i can't find one person who says they did the right thing, they missed an opportunity. they should have looked at his relationship with fox and explored it. they should have perhaps even discussed it. >> they did get down in the mud, like i said. >> look, it just feels like one more kind of marker on the road of a political world where you are either, as george bush said, with us or against us and it is very difficult for any political figure, increasingly media figures to be seen as anything but allied with one side against the other. >> terrible. >> i think the media is being forced into the same kind of framework the political world is and they reinforce each other. >> you know, they really ought to have a meeting, i mean, a complete across-the-board town hall at npr, ought to talk about this, ought to make them better and should offer him his job back, not that he to would take t that is the only way to fix it. can you think of any other way to fix this? it is a build up they're has, i

think, dangerous ramification. >> like tom vilsack fired shirley sherrod. >> you got fix it. >> in our world and the media world, juan williams is not shirley sherrod. he is a journalist of significant accomplishment. his book on the civil rights movement is one of his best books on american history on that suchblt he deserved more than a phone call, he deserved a meeting, a review, a full discussion, a full airing. >> a transparent discussion that might have made him -- >> about his future and their future and he didn't get any of those things. >> seriously, not like they are firing him because he is a conservative, he is not a conservative. >> it would have been a fascinating discussion. >> firing him because he worked at fox news. >> or by working at fox news, he said a series of things over the years that created a problem with their viewership, which is in a very different place than the viewership of fox news. some level that is the fundamental problem, the kind of -- that the media outlets are being -- serving very different masters. >> the "new york times" yesterday.

>> big chasm to strath straddle. >> you have got the balk balkanization of the media outlets. >> that is discussible. you can work that out, tease that out and two to your own advantage, a dialogue that is public and private. >> the bottom line where you stand politically, you stand politically, be where all of us we all know, all being completely transparent, a part of moving forward. >> and let me just say, mika, in this world of balkanized cable news outlet's and now actually -- it is kind of nice being switzerland. we like being switzerland. >> liechtenstein. >> i don't know about liechtenstein. >> oh it is lovely. >> let's talk about another media outlet, like us to be down the middle, the national journal, an esteemed, very esteemed outlet that actually is in the "new york times" today. pretty exciting. so you guys got to sit down with the president. he says he has a lot of work left to do. >> that is when we asked him if he was going to be running again in 201 it was essentially his

answer, i have got a lot of work left to do we said is that a yes, he kind of smiled and nodded and says take it as you will. what is interesting, i happened to interview bill clinton the sunday before the 1994 election which was pasting that may be coming for democrats this year and a very different tone. clinton, could you feel the weight of it on him personally, he was sagging in the back seat of the presidential limb mothers second guessing what i did do wrong, how i did get in this position. obama was very different, almost characteristically different, in what was the big takeaway of the interview, he is clearly beginning to think systemically how he will try to navigate a world with more republicans. >> how will he? >> and clearly it is going to be a mix of conciliation and confrontati confrontation. he is going to be locking for some areas where he can reach agreement with them and he cited three in the interview he thought perhaps the best prospectses, education, infrastructure and a stripped-down, piecemeal energy, which maybe a little optimistic

but he also drew read lines f they want extend the tax cuts for everybody, show me how they are going to pay for it t he was very tough on defending his health care bill and he was also unequivocal on the idea of going become to the '05 bush proposal of carving out of the payroll tax for private accounts and social security. he said that is a nonstarter. so if i had to say overall, i thought that he was saying, yes there may be areas, we work together but mostly signalling there is going to be some rough water ahead. >> rough water ahead. you know, major, on the front of "the new york times," we talked about this at 6:00, absolutely stunned that the president did not have a one-on-one meeting with mitch mcconnell for 18 months. it wasn't until august of this year that he actually called him over to the white house. stunning. you sat down with mitch mcconnell. what does he see as president obama and the republicans way forward? >> mcconnell sees two things. one, he sees a lot of confrontation with the president on the horizon. he is not confident, nor any republicans for that matter

about resolving any of these issues during the lame duck. most of the republicans i talked to expect the lame duck to be a quick session, extend as far as pending spending bills and leave town in january, leave republican it is they have a house majority and a larger senate conference but still in the minority status with the obligation, very quickly, of writing the tax bill, because everyone's tax rates will have gone up january 1st. that issue will be fresh and hot as soon as republicans get to washington. and the president is going to say, all right, do you want extend the bush tax cuts for everyone? show me how you are going to cut the spending. the republicans will be in the cauldron of a tax debate and spending cut debate before they have had a chance to thoroughly organization. mitch mcconnell knows he doesn't have enough votes to get his way and says let's minimize or control expectation. already republicans at the leadership position, at least the center saying, many ways, our hands are tied, can't get done nearly as much as you want

us to accomplish. >> mark halperin, look at the problems the democrats had getting things passed with a 59-41 majority, 51-49. it is going to be hard to get anything through the senate. >> i was talking to a member of the administration. i said, is the president going to have to offer basically 50/50 deals in order to get republicans to go along? he said we might have tifr 40/6 to 0 deals, pretend they are 50/50 but have to offer a all right of compromise. >> the bottom line, look become and say we have got the president and we have got the senate, even if is a majority of the one or two, but you have got to deal. >> yeah. >> bill clinton-to deal with -- >> health care and on spending and on taxes, it is going to be very difficult, 'cause the president is going to draw lines. >> mitch mcconnell said to major -- >> but what president obama is going to find is what bill clinton found, you want spending bills to pass, you keep the government running, you don't draw lines in the sand. the days of barack obama drawing line notice sand are over whether the republicans take

over or no. >> mitch mcconnell said to major, our top goal is to defeat president obama in 2012 and that will be a counterforce against the natural impulse to find things they can work on. >> mitch mcconnell said that? >> that is his goal. >> he wants to -- >> make barack obama a one-term president and do everying in congress that reinforces whatever the message is. >> he admitted that on the record? >> it is in the magazine. >> that is embarrassing. i wanted to enter the senate so i can worry about an election two years away. >> in a juan williams-fired world, everybody is looking to sharon the divisions, clarify the differences and fire up the base. that maybe more of what we see the next few years than in '95, '96. >> can i just say for the record that is pathetic. >> is it sounds like -- >> take over the senate to worry about a race two years away. >> national journal. very good, guys. major garrett, ron brownstein, thank you very much. thank you for unveiling the news

year national journal. >> i'm glad you major come on de spite the fact he used to work at fochblgts. >> you know what you're fired. i'm sorry. >> never felt better. >> it is subjective. it doesn't mean anything. you didn't really do anything it is sort of subjective. >> whimsical. >> at least we get to see you face-to-face. >> that is okay. >> i was afraid you were going to text me. >> no. no i would never do that. >> 'cause we haven't gone to -- juan said you got to go to the substance of what juan said really quickly, he was actually debating bill o'reilly, telling americans to be open-minded toward muslims, just for the record. you're fired for that. >> okay. when we come back, an exclusive -- >> don't be open minded. >> first look at the top stories in the politico playbook. a quick programming note, the morning after the midterm elections, "morning joe" will broadcast in front of a live studio audience from historic studio 8h here at 30 rock. that is november 3rd.

ticket res free. find information on our website joe.msnbc.com or call 212-664-3056. let's go to weather now with bill karins. bill? >> morning, mika. as advertised, one of the worst morning commutes in a long time in atlanta. heavy thunderstorms, had severe thunderstorms roll through the south side of town the last hour. they are now finally beginning to exit the region. still you can the south side of atlanta, heading into areas of east georgia, the strong storms are going to head your way. this area is under a tornado watch the next couple of hours. airports, it is amazing, atlanta only a 15-minute delay, think it would be a lot worse with those thunderstorms there some of those flights probably slow getting in. those delays will probably build the next hour. forecast today, rain and thunderstorms heads to pittsburgh and buffalo. d.c. and philly, much of the rain will come for you later this afternoon. as far as the forecast goes, the west coast has another stormy day, for the northwest. also watching huge waves coming onshore in oregon and washington state. the big story as we go into tomorrow, the huge wind storm in

the great lakes. already have high-wind warnings from green bay to marquette to chicago much thinking winds up to 70 miles per hour. we will have a lot of power outages that will be a big, huge story in the great lakes and northern plains in the ex-two days. you are watching "morning joe," brewed by starbucks. it's work through the grime and the muck, month. tow and pull without getting stuck month. sweat every day to make an honest buck month. it's truck month. great deals on the complete family of chevy trucks. during truck month, the deals include the silverado all-star edition - packing a powerful v8, trailering package, bluetooth wireless technology and more. and if you hurry in before november 1st, get any silverado with 0% apr financing. see your local chevrolet dealer.

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a new report from the centers for disease control and prevention suggest that is number of cases of diabetes in the u.s. will double and possibly even triple by 2050, which can't be too surprising to a country that uses fried chicken as bread. >> exactly. >> i want to go back to this

national journal story, great interview with barack obama, who suggested he is going to run again. but mitch mcconnell, i'm stunned that somebody before they're even majority leader of the senate, if, in fact that happens, would admit if he takes over the senate, his one goal is -- worry about an election two years away. >> you know which is worse if he means it or doesn't -- [ inaudible ] to me, the biggest mistake republicans make for themselves and the country during the bush years was worrying about the next election rather than worrying about doing what was right. for him to openly acknowledge two years of grid lock is fine with us as long as it positions us to went next election is -- i can't believe it is what he really meant. >> like you said, either way, it is just absolutely terrible. >> but it opens the door to the thing we were discussing earlier, opens the door to -- that is the thing that opens the door to barack obama getting re-elected in 2012.

if republicans set themselves just on a strategy of total nihilism the next two years that opens door the obama being able to do this strategy of cooperate where he can but be confrontational where he needs to be. >> let's go to politico, joining us now, chief white house correspondent for politico, mike allen, with the playbook today. mike, we will start with the democrats trying to temper expectations for a republican surge in the midterms. what are party leaders saying about the early data that they are seeing? >> you know, mika, senate democrats are saying, where it's surge? looking that the early voting data, they are saying that more democrats than republicans have voted in california, nevada, they are saying this more likely dems have voted than likely rs in illinois, wisconsin. i got an e-mail that is going to put a little cold shower on this where's the surge question. a republican who was in the fight back in '06 said, we felt great about our turnout in republican areas.

we felt great about republican ballots and then the exit polls started to come back and we had a horrible realization. they were voting against us. so, democratic turnout is good as long as they are voting d. >> wow. mike, you guys have your new battle ground poll out, talking to jim about this a couple of hours ago, the way independent voters swinging and it looks like they are going, for now, toward republicans? >> yeah, the size of the swing is amazing, the more independents have tuned into this race you can the more likely they are to vote r. back on labor day, not that long ago, 29% of independents going r. today, 44%. a stunning number. so the focus has been on the tea party, but what tells the stories is republican -- is independents making common cause with tea parties. independents won't be republicans forever, but looks like they are. on november 2nd it is another data point point together fact people in both parties will tell you all the momentum is on the

side of republicans. people are doing their counts, predictions, as you guys were earlier, moving them up. >> inside those numbers, 70% of those independents say they have lost faith in the government in the last two years, 60% say they are opposed to the health care plan. >> you know who else made the playbook? >> no. >> this is kind of frightening. >> deklein of our society in progress. >> this is american culture on the skids. >> yeah. >> you maybe wonder why banks are closed today it is a "morning joe" holiday, the birthday of louis bergdorf, the power behind the "morning joe" throw. down on the mall they don't recognize him without his segway, but you guys see him -- so i asked louis bergdorf's loving colleagues what he should get as a gift. what lavish president they would send him -- >> i got the answer. he needs a mirror. he loves to look in the mirror. >> already got 14 of those. >> another one.

>> a pretty mir we are his name on it. >> mike, what do you think? >> one of the suggestions was a bucket, a bucket, that is a technical mesher of loreal hair gel. i love his colleagues know his brand. >> a bucket and a mirror would be fitting for little louis. >> and a selling way. >> it is just disturbing. aaron is next. we will be right back. ise a gls to cookies just out of the oven. to the morning bowl of cereal. and to lactaid® milk. easy to digest and with all the calcium and vitamin d of regular milk. [ female announcer ] lactaid®. the original lactose-free milk. i'd like one of those desserts and some coffee. sure, decaf or regular? - regular. - cake or pie? - pie. - apple or cherry? cherry. oil or cream? oil or cream? cream... please. when other toppings are made with hydrogenated oil, the real dairy cream in reddi-wip's sure an easy choice.

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welcome back to "morning joe." mark halperin, you got an e-mail from mitch mcconnell's office. and my favorite part of it -- >> i don't know if we should read the subject line yet. >> the subject line is tell joe to calm down. >> okay. >> so, mitch mcconnell's office. >> good luck with that. >> they say that contrary to the characterization -- >> just read t. it is a little complicated. they say that mcconnell's biggest political goal is to stop the president from getting re-elected, just as they say the president's biggest political goal going forward is to get re-elected but substantively, not looking for gridlock, there is a little what i would consider to be a little tweet to you here. >> yes. yes. >> it says -- >> yeah. it says they are trying to avoid the mistakes that republicans made in 1994, allowing their -- the republicans, the president to use the republicans as their

political foil and it says, that should sound familiar to joe. >> oh, 1996. >> '95, '96. in other words, his political goal is to beat the president, they don't want to become a foil that the democratic president -- >> so, here you go. this is national journal. we need -- this is what mitch mcconnell says ifth in national journal. "those of you that helped make this a good day, we need to you go out and finish the job." national journal asks what are you talking about? what is the job? what is the job you want to finish. he says "the single most important thing we want to achieve is for president obama to be a one-term president." >> he doesn't say that. >> the single most important thing we want to achieve is for president obama to be a one-term president. go to erin burnett on wall street. the single most important thing

i want to achieve is throw to you here and give us happy, happy news. >> okay. >> happy days are here again. >> i can trial. we have stocks up for seven of the past eight weeks have a big open this morning that is 'cause the dollar is down that means it takes more dollars to buy commodities, prices are going up for everything that could hit us in our own pockets, if you get my drift, gasoline prices, et cetera. for now, so far, so good. stocks are higher. at this moment, guys, we have something important happening, ben bern mack ski speaking in arlington, virginia about housing, finance and mortgages. he is not talking about where interest rates are going but saying they are going to come out with a preliminary report -- >> go back to ben bernanke, looking at ben bernanke here live there is just something about that chocolate brown suit that. >> he loves that suit. >> so exciting. just brown on brown. forget blonde on blonde, with ber mack committeeky, brown on brown. that is going to sometime lit lathe the economy. >> wear this brown suit all the

time, i think that she's testimony suit or anything. any rate, he is talking about mortgages and what they are saying is he is going to have a report next week, next months, i'm sorry, like i said about banks' mortgage processes, where there were irregularities, any fraud a preliminary report going to come out. i know i don't have a lot of time. so i will simply say this that is the big question for the market, the next big question for the market, not the election, fully priced in, nobody cares, they care about the day after, the day you have your special show will be the day we find out whether there is quantitative easing and sthangtle biggest thing for the market. >> erin, good job getting all that n. >> your chocolate brown? >> chocolate brown takes courage. >> roger bennett is next. >> thank you, erin. sure i'd like to diversify my workforce, i just wish that all of the important information was gathered together in one place. [ printer whirs ] done.

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espn soccer analyst, roger bennett. >> running down broadway naked. >> what? what are you talking about? >> i always ran -- that the is only thing mika ever remembered from what i have said on this show, wildly terrifying. >> traffic is now starting back, thank god. so let's start with -- in manchester, there's only been one name on the list of the manchesterites. wayne rooney. >> a model for the youth, humiliated the sea, demanded to leave. >> humiliated his wife, his family. it would be a little bit like regis philbin defecting to fox news it would be that major. and he was rewarded with doubling his pay, 300,000 dollars a week. >> bad behavior rewarded. >> and a lynch mob that came down at night and told him that he had to stay, that played a little role.

so, not a bad one for manchester united. his replacement, the little green pea, scoring a goal with the back of his head. in the last minute, the winner gave him three points, proving he is the most talented vegetable in sports. wayne rooney in dubai with. >> rooney going to be at man u --. for the next couple of months. mindset is very, very dark it is going to be very -- >> scandal. scandal going on driven out, he wants to leave the country. >> the glaze verse no money, not putting into the team, he wants to win and he also wants to make his money he has been playing football eight or nine years. >> he got caught with prostitutes. >> as willie keeps telling me. drinking heavily, smoking heavily. his mind is off the game. he wants one more pay day. tried to leave. stuck around. literally was a lynch mob. >> the big news, all the kids in america talking about this, of course, sunday night, very excited, they can go become to

school happy, uncle roy and liverpool. >> the liverpool red sox back to their winning ways. how did it feel? >> love it. >> feels great. >> john henry wasn't there to see it sadly, they said he was at ill, i think he was at home rummaging through his pockets to see if his purchase came with a gift receipt to return the club. >> but uncle roy won, a i go, a coach in big trouble. >> 0-0 halftime. watching uncle roy during the first half is like watching a venable in seal about to be clubbed. >> oh. >> wow. >> liverpool -- >> own goal by jamie kerik. >> best goal scorer of all time for liverpool football club. here it is. liverpool. and then -- >> torres. >> playing -- >> he is back, baby. >> playing since he has been on prozac since the world cup. this was absolutely fabulous. >> begins with a setup.

>> all this fall from hunky dory at his club but the red sox are now in charge although, joe, you have to say that liverpool stands about as much chance of wing the world series as they do the english prelude. >> take a couple years, beat relation. you know what seriously, itth is the most mediocre year in history for the epl. >> i agree. >> a slow start and end up in the top four. >> look at a team who had a slow start and possibly going to threaten in the second. the honest truth is all of the major football stories -- all of the major football stories. >> not even going to say that your everton has a chance to do anything. >> going to see a goal possibly with a -- looks like an accountant, looks like an accountant but the left foot of a brazilian. >> okay. so, everton. >> two big signs. look at this, leighton baines, win a cy young with this left foot. bang. top corner, takes three kicks

like a brazilian. that was beautiful. unfortunately, this was the beast, this was america's number one playing like england's number one, tim howard, threatened by peter kraut, 6'7"', football-playing flamingo. tapped in the rebound, five goals in six for the chunky dutchman. >> the chunky dutchman. i love you. >> tim howard, america's number one, can't get away with that in english. >> what is tim doing here? >> he is flapping, flapping hopelessly. he makes his mistakes, little errant mentally on the case. >> all comes down chelsea versus the field. >> chelsea versus chelsea, really, they are five quinns ahead. the greatest weekend. manchester city crumbled against arsenal. they all five points behind. if i was going to bet on liverpool, where they will be by christmas, joe, you tell me. >> i think midbracket, midbracket. you watch, two weeks from now, this is -- liverpool takes down

chelsea. >> where are we going? >> i want you in the owner's box with me. >> roger bennett, thank you. up next, our political roundtable. ant a bank that travels with you. with you when you're ready for the next move. [ male announcer ] now that wells fargo and wachovia have come together, what's in it for you? unprecedented strength, the stability of the leading community bank in the nation and with 12,000 atms and thousands of branches, we're with you in more ways and places than ever before. with you when you want the most from your bank. [ male announcer ] wells fargo. together we'll go far.

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>> look, there are going to be several geological ages that are going to come and go before the 2012 republican presidential nomination fight gels. >> all right. welcome back. with us on set, the game change boys, msnbc and "time" magazine senior political analyst mark halperin and political columnist john heilemann. adorable. get to some of our op eds, one bouncing off what we heard from karl rove as we came in, from new york magazine, heilman judiciary committee piece, how sarah barracuda becomes president. you say this combine that with a strong enough showing in a few other place us in the industrial northeast to deny obama those states and with palin holding the fire-engineered states of the south and the president might find himself short of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. the election would be thrown to the house of representatives, which, after november 2nd is likely to be controlled by the republicans. the result, hello president palin. everything about palin's story is far-fetch bud here she is, a

phenomenon, nearly, nearly unprecedented in modern poll ache, it figure so elective if i can to the most hopped up segment of her party that at times, she seems unstoppable. she is a super nova, says mckinnon, the only parallel is barack obama and look what happened to him. and you presume in this scenario that michael bloomberg runs, right? >> so it is a throw-part -- the spree basically in three parts, one is the conventional wisdom quickly is coalescing among republican professionals, strategists, operatives that she is going to run, number one, number two because of the calendar and ability to raise money and dominate media she could win, especially she will be strong in iowa, nevada, south carolina, three of the first four states, if she wins with that is the likeliest thing that is going to provoke a third party candidate, most likely mike bloomberg, if mike bloomberg gets into the race, the likeliest outcome there is he wins connecticut and new york. >> new jersey. >> new jersey. florida and california, at least

competitive enough in those states keep obama from win there off jump ball that guess to the house. >> so you are presuming that palin, you say gop operatives are presuming that palin does run? >> think people now increasingly, i talked to two dozen people, two dozen republican operatives, senior guy, the guys who ran the dole/bush and mccain campaigns coming around to the view, still some dispute on that point but they are increasingly thinking she is teaming herself up to run. >> more likely to run than not. >> wow. >> let's back up and look at the elections a week away, peter baker says this in the "new york times" n losing the midterms there may be winning, for obama, he means. other way, he will find a way to form agreements with republicans on issues like the economy, education, energy, or he may be able to play off congress as an adversary, such as mr. clinton did, with house speaker newt gingrich 15 years ago, and as harry truman did with the so-called do nothing congress decades before that if the republicans capture both house and senate, the odds of obama winning in 2012 go up, says

steven gill, a university of oklahoma professor and resident historian for the history channel. if the democrats keep both house, congress will hover over him and he is going to have less room to maneuver. that is what you have been talking about a lot, joe. >> not just me. again, while ideologues, left wing ideologues cheer if democrats hold on two or three seats, see, we showed you, the white house says privately that's the scenario they fear the most. they do not want to be of responsibility without the power and if it is going to be within two or three vote he is in the house they want boehner as speaker. >> probably not going to have to deal with that the republicans will probably take the majority in the house. again, we talked about it before, you can't just assume it will be better for him to lose. he must what the outcome, democrats narrowly hold or republicans take a majority, the president must act. he must make changes. i have got piece on time.com this morning that says really,

as much as a cliche now the clinton playbook is his best bet, confront republican wrest strongly disagrees with them and try to push them to the right. >> call them out. >> call them out. but work with them on the many issues which they have common ground, education, afghanistan, deficit reduction, trade. he must probe ducktive. >> does he have that in him? he were with talking about that after our first conversation early this morning. does he have it in him to say i messed up, i should have reached out to mitch mcconnell, "new york times" story saying he didn't talk to him for 18 months, does he have that in him? >> if you look at the way he has reacted in the past, would you say. no you look at his lack of relationship with republicans in terms of trust, which it will require, would you say no but he wants to get stuff done, he is not in the office to just sit there he is in the office to get things done, republicans in the majority earthquake must get their cooperation to get things done. >> but john, bill clinton did it he reached out to republicans who he did not like. >> butted he had such a history of doing that if you looked at mullen is 1994 and his his tryst

before that could you have predick what he had would do, when he lost the arkansas governorship, he course corrected, he was very good at making lemonade out of lemons. we don't know what barack obama is going to do it is the $64,000 question, because the truth is, in his political career, he has not been knocked on his coaster in a severe way, really badly repud yatd and had to pick himself up again we we don't know what -- >> losing the primary chicago in chicago doesn't count, people didn't expect him to win. >> it is a big testament not just to his political strategy but his character. >> you take bill clinton, for instance, bill clinton came in '92, this progressive champion, a hero, when he got beaten in '94, he did what willie and i do every time he gets in trouble, called dick morris, who would have expected that. >> yeah. great. >> sometimes you got to call the guy -- >> pick up the bat phone. >> pick up the bat phone. does -- so, let's ask this question. i won't say who is barack obama's dick morris, but it does

beg the question, does he have a republican? does he have a conservative that he knows that he can say, okay, friend, i'm in trouble and i need you to come here and help me course correct. >> come back to the same person, ken cuber steen, ronald reagan's last chief of staff. >> voted for obama. he announced his support for barack obama beefrt election. >> does barack obama like -- >> they know people in common and he has occasionally been consulted by the white house. >> all right. guys, thanks very much. up next, what we learned today. >> what did we learn today? here is your business travel forecast, i'm meteorologist bill karen, a lot of airport problems this week, a huge storm moving into the middle of the country

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welcome back, kids, time to talk about what we learned today. >> you can go home again. i will be in new jersey, 7:00, family, friends if you live in bergen county -- >> this is going to be ugly. what is going to happen tonight, happened to the shah if dr. brzezinski turned them back over. >> you learned that huey lewis is alive and kicking and still hip to be square. kicking it old school, baby. >> huey lewis needs the world series go to seven games because is that the first day he is available to do the anthem. >> mika what stu learn? >> the polls come in, next