>> all right. thanks for review of just how crazy we currently are. you should enjoy that. are you going to the march? >> i didn't have a chance. >> my mother's going. >> your mother's going. >> i'm like, why are you concerned about the sanity. she said she was going to see colbert. that will do it for us. "hardball's" up now. that was keli goff. chris matthews will be your host starting now. eight days to go. let's play "hardball." leading off tonight, nerves on edge. how can people be so heartless. the american independent voter is on a tear. a new battleground state poll

shows independent voters incl e inclined to be nastier to the democrats next tuesday. the democrats can stop is surge will determine where they cut their loss or drown in a republican tsunami. we'll weigh the odds on that, look at the hot senate races and tell you which party is benefits from early voting. i'll talk with jimmy carter about the race to the finish and what would happen if president obama gets caught between a republican candidate and independent in 2012. what does happen if sarah palin runs and sparks an independent run by mike bloomberg of new york? believe it or not, they could split the vote and result in palin's election in the house of representatives. also, we'll take a look at the last rush of ads hitting the air and what they tell us about which confident is going to win and which knows he or she is in trouble. and which candidate said president obama can take his

endorsement and these are his words, shove it, only after he asked for his endorsement and didn't get it. that's in the "sideshow." with one week of campaigning left, let's go to the "hardball" scoreboard. the generic congressal ballot, look at this number. that is nasty. 44-30. independent voters are going to go for the republicans. that's in the george washington battleground state. now to the pennsylvania senate race. has toomey with a five-point lead over sestak. that may be opening up for toomey. in illinois, where we were on wednesday last week, kirk has a lead over giannoulias. too close to call there. in the florida senate race, it's marco rubio holding the big lead over charlie crist is fading and kendrick meek who is not taking

off. looks like rubio down there. in california, a new "los angeles times" poll has senator barbara boxer, who was struggling, up eight now. something happened up there. and check out this number from the california governor's race. jerry brown, the old veteran, coming in 13 point over meg whitman. we're going to continue to check the scoreboard all this week on all the big races leading up to november 2nd. now, the state of play. we've got experts here. susan tucker with the atlantic journal institution and ron brownstein. you were in california this weekend. my wife's stanford reunion. what's going on with jerry brown? was it the way meg whitman seemed to have treated her latina housekeeper? >> i think it is largely

personal in that meg whitman has made herself the focal point of the campaign. that's not good at a time when people are this dissatisfied. the senate race is more on bok and no one wants to be at the focus. >> i think in california, they're voting against my friend, arnold schwarzenegger. i think that jerry brown ad that shows her lip-syncing or swimming with arnold schwarzenegger a lethal to her because it looks like she's another republican business person who said they could fix up sacramento. >> that was a very clever ad for jerry brown to run because i thought he had more trouble digging himself out of the hole i thought he was in when one of his staffers was overheard

calling meg whitman something you should never call a woman, but he came out of that with this hard-hitting ad. meg whitman's 130 million she spent hasn't done her any good. but in an even odder contest, boxer seems to be pulling away from fiorina. >> why is boxer, i've always looked her, some don't. what's brought her back out of the woods where she's up to 50? >> the "l.a. times" poll is better for brown and boxer? it's a little wider. public policies -- plus five for boxer. there are a number of other -- i think people do feel that boxer is ahead, but democrats do not feel that race is done. they're not sure the governor's race is done, but they feel they have a stronger advantage there

because i think brown has reemerged as the character as opposed to whitman. boxer's challenge is at the backdrop of her race, is disfaction with what's going on in washington. so, there's a very different context. >> the latino vote, neither one of them, neither republican is doing well. >> when you fire somebody after you know what they were doing all those years and pretend you're cleaner than whatever, i love this guy for one reason. he makes all guys who are getting older feel much better. he's 70. he was governor in the '70s. i am fascinated by the fact he looks like he's come alive. he's got the juice. >> he clearly enjoys politics. he enjoys running. he enjoys the contest.

>> let's look at pennsylvania. this is the poll out of allen town. it's got toomey moving ahead. he's a bit to the right of normal pennsylvania voters. has he just done something right or is it antiwashington? >> in a different year, it would be more difficult for him to win, but what we're seeing in the movement among -- toward being leading strongly democratic. obama won them by 20,000 votes in '08. toomey can compete in a way he might not be able to otherwise. >> here's toomey. he said today he doesn't see a connection with himself and others like christine. >> i really don't see the need to do this. you know, this is a sort of fictitious connection that joe sestak is trying to encourage.

frankly, i don't think anybody is confusing the candidates. i've been campaigning for 18 months now. i've had a very clear message that time. i don't see the issue. >> so, ron, here's a guy, we're wearing ties because we have to. you show little underwear shirt, look like a regular guy and say, i got nothing to do with the person running in the next state. i don't know her. >> there's enormous overlap from all of the areas. you can look down the board on these issues. but in terms of credentials and credibility, you're talk about something very different with pat toomey. >> exactly and that has helped sestak a little bit. >> she's got great name i.d. >> because we talk about her all the time. she is so outrageous, it's hard not to talk about her and as you

know, in certain parts of pennsylvania, people see the delaware commercials. and so -- >> they're called philadelphia commercials. philadelphia television is so dominant, it covers all of south jersey, five counties and the entire state of delaware. that's why it's expensive to run for office. >> look at pennsylvania and california. there's a lot of similarity in the way big voter groups are divided. in california, boxer and brown are getting w hrk f. a third of the vote in california this time is going to be nonwhite and among the white voters, they will show. that will be even down and among the white voters, more will be college educated. and pennsylvania, there aren't quite as many of those to work with and in arkansas or north dakota, there are none. >> 1982, bill bradley was

supposed to win the governorship and then this boring guy came back. a new poll has mark kirk up over giannoulias. i thought he was a very attractive candidates. he's a coolest customer. he worked the crowd. didn't just do the speech with me. he went around, met everybody. likable in person. >> but he carries some major -- ethical issues. banking issues. the one thing you don't want to be in this cycle is a candidate who has run a bank that failed, whose family has run a bank that's made bad loans. >> the blumenthal problem of not telling the truth about his military record. >> that's probably why the race is as close as it is. >> are there any great candidates this year? >> the way the modern campaign works, you could be george

washington and come out with scars, but sestak, kirk, murray, bennett in colorado, they're facing the same mathematical equation. the issue is can they hold down their issues and get over the minority. >> your reporting this week, first thing, big swing toward the republicans among independents. 44-30. the second, interview with the president. what is it that hasn't been picked up on. has his attitude -- >> sorry about philly. >> i was in san francisco watching it. has his attitude changed? >> i care a lot about the fill will phillies. does he have to get down a little bit into the real world the next time up? >> there is no question that among kind of working class white voters, democrats are

going to get plastered. they performed more poorly than in '94. >> does he share their sweat ooand worry. >> you could feel the weight of it on him and trying to wrestle with how he got himself in this position. talking to president obama, it is clear he's begun to think more systemically. it was more matter of fact about how i am going to move forward. >> what about attitude towards the average guy, black or white. does he feel a little humbled by his failure to get the unemployment rate down? >> of course he does. i mean, there is no doubt that the economy weighs heavily on the president. let's remember his own childhood. the president didn't grow up privileged. he grew up the child of a single -- obviousf course he do.

the child of a single mother. his grandparents were working class. he struggled. does he project that in the way clinton did? no. bill clinton lost, too. the democrats lost 52 seats when the unemployment rate was under 6%. so, if the democrats can now hold their losses to in the 50s, i don't think they will have done that badly. to in the 50s. in the 50s. >> the way i hear it put by an expert, if the democrats lose 45 seats in the house this year, it's a good night. >> that's a bad good night. >> i think it will be somewhere in that range if not higher. any place where democrats are going to have to win working class white voters, they are in danger because those voters are skeptical of government and are being hammered by the economy.

>> i've got my predictions, but they're along those lines. it's going to be tough for them to beat this wind, but i still think you've got to vote. there's always going to be good candidates you can find you should vote for and bad ones you've got to keep out of office no matter what the title flow. thank you. coming up, former president jimmy carter's coming here with some attitude of his own. we'll get to him and to the midterms when we come back with president obama and he needs to be doing. the former president, of what needs to be done. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. princess of the powerp. your core competency... is competency. and you rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price.

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the voting in 2008. king county, washington, 70% of the vote. los angeles county and san francisco. clark county, nevada, which is las vegas, where he won 59% and in minnesota, minneapolis, obama carried that with 63%. today's stop, he won that county with 83% of the vote. here he is working hard on what should be obama country. we'll be right back. cussing thes by which a person can find himself in four separate places at one time. i didn't really say that. but people come in here for tires, brakes, batteries and oil changes. so it's possible? yes. oh that's brilliant. buy with confidence. thanks to our low price tire guarantee. so, with everything you need in one convenient place why would you go to four separate places? now that's a good question. well, there you go.

welcome back to "hardball." president jimmy carter kept a diary during his time at the white house. president carter, thank you so much for coming on "hardball." i often mention the fact that i had the honor to serve you and i don't want to leave that fact out as we begin this hard-hitting interview.

did you make any changes in your diary to be nicer? did you take anything out that was too tough for even you to speak? >> no, as a matter of fact, chris, after about a year, i'm going to make the entire diary available to scholars and news reporters even with all the errors, so, no, i did not delete anything. i just picked out about 20% of the most interesting, enticing, titillating and historically important entries that i made. >> what was interesting from my view, the only mention you made of the speech writers was to say you didn't like the draft of the farewell address. >> well, i had a good relationship with some of the speech writers and as you know, not a very good relationship with others. i liked to write most of my own

speeches. >> let's talk about the toughest issues of your administration. you took a lot of grief from people, guys that made fun of you for the fact that your daughter mentioned nuclear nonproliferation. countries like iran getting control of nuclear weapons, do you feel angry that people mocked you? >> i just got back from north korea, so not angry, but you know, i didn't have a very good relationship with the press. >> you were made fun of for trying to get people to wear sweaters in the winter, reduce the thermostat. you're laughing, but it was such a hot issue because people said you made the presidency small, when in fact you were dealing with the issue we deal with today, which is energy.

>> when i went into office, we were importing 8.6 million barrels of oil a day. in five years, we cut it to half. now, we're back up to about 11 million barrels a day. most of the energy policies have been reversed because of pressure from the oil companies automobile companies and presidents afterward who didn't care about the policy, particularly reagan. >> there's a lot of buzz on this show about the possibility of a third party running in 2012, which in many ways, as you know, tends to help the republicans. in this case, and maybe not automatically, if bloomberg, the mayor of new york runs, that's going to hurt obama, isn't it? what do you think of third parties? >> i didn't like them when i ran for re-election in the '80s, ted kennedy had been running against me, and in the last minute, a third party came in.

reagan only got less than 51% of the votes, but won because of a third party candidate. >> won't bloomberg do the same to obama? new york, connecticut, new jersey. you know the ones, maybe florida. they're all obama states last time. he would only hurt obama. wouldn't hurt a palin or republican at all. >> well, i'm not sure that bloomberg is seriously considering that. i think it would be a mistake because he couldn't win, but he might prevent obama from winning re-election. held guarantee a republican would move in the white house. that's what happened in 1980 when reagan moved in because of a split democratic party. >> so, you think it would be bad for the country? >> i think it would be better if president obama was re-elected. >> let me ask you about the democratic liberals. they tend to be dissatisfied often. there's a great old phrase that meant new democratic coalition, but also means november doesn't count.

the attitude with win the left, beat the center left, you've won the battle. you had the battle with ted kennedy. i see it today with the net roots. the younger generation, groups that are angry all the time at this president. >> in history, this is the most polarized country and divide we've seen. in the last two year, the republicans have decided we won't give obama any support. maybe two or three votes at the most on most important issues. it's a deadlock now and i hope after this election is over, the republicans will feel some responsibility where as they've been completely irresponsible the last two years. >> but the republicans, you're right. they basically blocked everything the president tried to do and forced him to the left. forced him to bring left wing coalitions without help from the

center right. they won, i guess, on the argument because they made him look lefty. >> that's true. and i was forced in the other direction because ted kennedy took away the very liberal wing of the democratic party and i got good support from the republicans while in office and we had a high batting average, as you know. >> there's something fundamentally wrong with the democratic coalition, if you're a moderate, is the left always going to be a thorn in the side of the moderate left president? >> the attrition rate has been greater among moderate republicans and now, the hard right republicans are taking over and any moderate republican is likely to be on his way out of the senate. that's what's happening. and the reason is that we've had such a tremendous infusion of

enormous sums of money into the campaign chest of candidates for congress, senate and presidency and so now, we are inundated with negative advertising that takes over and polarizes everything. the best avenue to success is to destroy the character of your opponent and that distrust carries over to washington and generates very hard line blue and red states in the country. >> what you think of these tea party people? i like at a lot of them as they're not all crazies, they're regular people. very religious. church-going people like yourself. i wonder do they know they're being backed by big corporations and this conservative money at the top? >> obviously, the tea party movement has been almost completely financed by hard right ol gi guards who want to prevent the oil companies and major corporations from having

to pay their share of taxes or comply with environmental laws. the tea party movement has been supported by these very right winged people who don't give a darn about working people. >> i wish they knew that. do you think for sure that barack obama, the president, has made up his mind to run for re-election? >> i don't have any relationship with barack obama in talking about his future plans. my hope is that he will prevail. i believe that the next two years might be even better for him because he'll have at least one body in the congress of the united states that has to have some responsibility to the public, that is be the house of representatives. but with that responsibility would be quite a change in the total irresponsible action that republicans have assumed the first two years, but i think it will let obama go directly to the people more to plan his

staff, his flag among the people like harry truman did in 1948 when he won the presidency re-election because he character ied the congress as a do nothing congress. i think obama has that chance now as he didn't before. >> let me pay tribute to your diary, mr. president. clear for me even reading a bit of it that you had no help from speech writers for this. that no one got in your way. this was pure jimmy carter and anybody wants to know what you really think, all they have to do is read this book. thank you, mr. president. it was an honor to serve you and have you on tonight. >> thank you. up next, why is a democrat running for governor, these are hid words, to shove it. check out the "sideshow" straight ahead.

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now to the "sideshow." the democrat running for rhode island governor said last week he would welcome president obama's endorsement. well, yesterday, ahead of the president's visit up there, the white house announced it would not be endorsing a candidate in that race. he did not take the news well.

wow. remember that race does include lincoln chafey, who served in the senate with the president as a moderate republican and was early to endorse obama's presidential bid. next, you can add carl paladino to the list of candidates caught inflating their military service. his campaign manager stated he served six month of active duty at ft. bliss. the "new york post" decided to look in his military record. its report, he served that and never trained anybody. he was dealt another blow when his hometown paper endorsed andrew cuomo. their reasoning, paladino

doesn't have the balance to serve as governor. now, the big number. meg whitman of california -- have these big personal money businesses. how much have they spent together? 243 million bucks. tonight's money can't buy you love big number. up next, the energy of the tea party might help vault sarah palin to the republican nomination in 2012. who knows. and one observer says she might be able to bring in somebody like bloomberg as an alternative. that's ahead.

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higher on a weaker dollar. the dow climbing 31, s&p adding two and a half and nasdaq moving 11 points higher. materials and commodities, dow industrials and transports nearing new highs today. airline stocks continuing to soar on earnings, but financials grounded out the week, struggling on fallout from the foreclosure crisis. that is it from cnbc, we are first in business worldwide. back to "hardball." back to "hardball." in an upcoming new york magazine cover, john hammen reports that sarah palin's presidential run is a probability --

joining us now, the writer himself. and also, "the daily beast," shush na walsh. if sarah palin runs and looks like she's heading towards the nomination, then mike bloomberg jumps in to grab the republican votes and tries to win down the middle. >> i think it's a three-part thing and putting it together might seem implausible. the piece you just read, i think a lot of people who are professional in the game of

politics, think that she's going to run. the second part, she's going to be if the republican nomination looks like a two-bracket fight between an antiestablishment and establishment, she's pretty much guaranteed and the thing that mike bloomberg looked for in 2008 and is going to look for again is what the people call wide goal posts. if she is the nominee, it's likely he'll get in. >> jimmy carter is saying tonight on our show that he can't win. if not, why would he run? >> a couple of different possibleties. one is he thinks he has a more optimistic sense of his availability. he might come to the conclusion there are some red states that

he could take away from palin to win those states. the second possibility, if it goes to the house, that bloomberg would think the republicans in the house would be reasonable enough to put him in charge. >> here's the problem. the problem is that if neither candidate for the presidency or none of the three in this case, bloomberg, the president or in that case, that scenario, sarah palin, all three run. it's palin, bloomberg, obama. if none gets 270 electorate votes, the house of representatives doesn't decide it. members get to vote state by state with each state getting one vote. the way this country's divided, that's the way the small states vote. they're republican. so if it does go to the house, it would go to a republican and be run by conservative republican states that wouldn't like bloomberg. there is a chance that palin

could be elected president by a conservative majority among states. it is possible. >> it is interesting and that's what john pointed out. i think without the bloomberg equation, she could win. you're right. if it goes to house representatives, many of her mama and papa grizzlies win next tuesday and i don't think she's backing people, that she's planned it out, but i think that she probably read it today and said, it's great that i backed all these people. obviously, not all will win next tuesday, but it's going to help her if this scenario happens. >> you're making a pretty easy argument to make. it isn't hard to imagine that bloomberg steals some of these democratic states. a handful. that denies either party the chance to get 270, probably.

probably. there it is. let's take a look at the bloomberg candidates. quote -- bloomberg could stand a reasonable chance of carrying new york, new jersey, connecticut, florida -- combine that with a showing of a few other states, you could deny obama those states and with palin holding the fire engine red states of the south, the president might find himself short of the votes. you will now know it's up to the house of representatives where you get each state getting one vote. the weird thing about this is we haven't had the house of representatives since way back in the 19th century. what do we make of this? >> on some level, it's a crazy scenario. if you take it apart, you can find yourself getting there.

bloomberg in this circumstance, he would be looking to something not just where palin was the nominee, but where obama was weaker than he is today. bloomberg's not going to see that in a path, but if obama's down in the high 30s, which, if the economy continues to be stagnant or gets worse, could be the case. bloomberg could try to make the argument in some of the paler red states, that's he's the one to fix the economy. >> if he runs and delivers this to the republican party and the way it would work is if you have two candidates knocking the incumbent for two years, he would bring down obama and turn it over to the republicans. is that what he wants to do?

>> i don't think that's what he wants to do -- >> that's what anderson did to carter. >> i think he would only run if he saw a way of winning it for himself. >> if he thinks he can win, he should run. if he can't win, he shouldn't run. that's my judgment. your thoughts, last thought. >> i agree, that if bloomberg thought he wouldn't win, he wouldn't get into it. in 2008, they floated the idea that bloomberg definitely explored it. it's not that crazy to explore it again and if he has two people, the goal posts are wide between a palin and obama, i can see him getting in, but wouldn't get in if he thinks he couldn't get in. he has a lot of money, too, to back himself up. >> i've never seen the two political parties less popular. thank you and congratulations.

up next, the mid year air wars. the latest political ads. these are the closer ads. they're fascinating because you can tell by watching who's winning and who's losing. this is "hardball," only on msnbc. ♪ ♪ oh ♪ my love, what have i done? ♪ ♪ my burden is too heavy ♪ how will we go on? ♪ my burden is too heavy

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>> they voted against these ideas again and again. they talk a good game about tax cuts and giving entrepreneurs the freedom to succeed when in fact, they also voted against tax cuts for the middle class. they voted against tax breaks for companies creating jobs here in the united states. it's just plain politics. if you're goimng to talk a big game, you need to deliver. >> "hardball" back after this. . you never take an upgrade for granted. and you rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i deserve this. [ male announcer ] you do, business pro. you do. go national. go like a pro. my kids say i speak a different language. but i love math and math and science develop new ideas.

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welcome back. with eight days to go, the candidates are making their final arguments with the voters. the ads tell us a lot about the state of the race. let us. the author of "the death of conservatism" now out on paperback. go to this first ad. meg whitman's obviously been rocked by the poll numbers, showing her double digit behind jerry brown. let's hear her appealing. let's listen. >> i know that many of you see this election as an unhappy choice between a longtime politician with no plan of the future and a billionaire with no government experience. well, let me tell you my story. my husband and i came here as newlyweds. we raised our family here and the california dream came true for me in ways that i never could have imagined. now i'm running for governor to

restore the california dream for everyone. i'm not a career politician or a hollywood star. i'm from silicon valley where i created thousands of jobs at ebay. >> you know, after months of kicking the opponent as hard as she can she goes sweet and lovely. peaches and cream. will that work, sam? will people buy this sweetness after all of this rough play of the last couple of months? >> well, what surprises me, chris, is this the ad that we're getting at theind of her campaign. what did she spend $140 million or something? and she's now reintroducing herself and her biography. it looks a little desperate to me. also you know this question of business versus government. you know that's kind of the big issue on the table now. you have a populist electorate that isn't so happy with either one and she's putting herself in one camp. i don't know about this one. >> yeah i agree with you. here's harry reid by the way, boy, does this man need a closing argument. let's listen to her ay reid the senate majority out in nevada. >> sharron angle is extreme.

>> would cost thousands of jobs. >> she'll be the knockout punch for nevada's economy. >> sharron angle supports tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. that's just crazy. >> there's a better choice. harry reid is saving thousands of jobs. >> let's start with the fact that i'm a republican. nobody that's done more for the night we need the majority leader. >> replacing senator wreed sharron angle would be a disaster. >> well, there you've got the establishment argument. is that going to work in 2010? >> because that's how you do an attack ad. you go to nobody who it likes in nevada or very few people do. keep him out in the ad. get your business leaders, the casino owners, the people who says he's a republican to make the attack ad. >> don't believe me believe them. >> believe them and one's know a republican. >> it's so establishment. >> but you know something, if you're worried about jobs and you're trying to make her out to be spooky that's a pretty good ad. >> talk about this one talk about an easy one. a chippy from chris coons, his ad against his forelorn opponent christine o'donnell.

let's listen to her one. this isn't even fair at point. >> christine o'donnell says a lot of strange things. >> i'm not a witch. evolution is a myth. biotech companies are crossbreeding humans and animals and coming up with mice with fully functioning human brains. huh? >> now she's attacking chris coons, the truth is coons cut $130 million, taxes in newcastle county are among the lowest in the region. unlike washington, chris coons balanced six budgets. about. >> is it okay to call zany zany, sam? i mean this is piling on. wouldn't this be what do you call unnecessary roughness in a football game? >> you know that's a really clever ad, chris, because it starts off with all of the crazy stuff. boils it down, does not mess with this whole separation of church and state issue. which is actually hard to parse, you know, literally in the constitution and also pivots to what chris coons has does.

reminder the voter why you have to head. a guy who is ahead. his concern is probably complacency, will people go to the polls? he gives just enough of christine o'donnell so they've got enough to vote. really a clench ad. >> making a comeback. here's mcmahon the wrestling queen going after her opponent dick blumenthal. here's part of it. >> people have said a lot of false things about me. i know it would happen. but i wanted you to know the truth about why i'm running. i'm running because i've lived through some of the the same hardships many of you are facing. i'm running to be your voice, the voice of the working moms, stay-at-home moms, families, and small business owners who are struggling. >> richard, will that work in elite connecticut. >> never mind the brainy mouse. that's actually a clone, sort of emerge between meg whitman -- meg whitman and christine o'donnell. >> okay. >> she's you -- >> i love it because you could tell who is losing. thank you richard wolffe.

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let me finish tonight with the election coming up next week. i'll be talking in coming days of what's at stake, but tonight, right now, i want to talk about the outlook. it looks right now like the democrats will lose the house. i say that because even in a decent year, they would lose

perhaps 25 seats. even if the jobless rate were down around 7%, not up around 10%. even if president obama's numbers were up around mid 50s they would lose 25 seats why, because the democrats rode up the score in the last two elections. the swing states picked up in 2006-2006. where republicans usually have the edge. they won those seats when people wanted to see a shift from bush to obama. those seats reverted back to their usual partisan moorings even in normal times and 10% unemployment and holding is not a normal time. on the senate side it's a fact that the democrats could lose that, too. i look at the races in arkansas, indiana, wisconsin, and north dakota, and seeing not too difficult pickups for the republicans. i look at nevada, illinois and pennsylvania, and see the prospect for more wins by the republicans. though somewhat more difficult. and then i look at west virginia. the state of washington, california, colorado, and connecticut, and i see the republicans have a chance to win the whole senate. they have to win ten of