>> provocative, practical as always. happy new year to you, tony schwartz. that does it for us. i'm matt miller in for dylan ratigan. dylan will be back on monday. i've had a great time keeping his chair warm while he's been out. you'll see plenty of me in the year ahead as a regular "dr" contributor. so from all of us here at the "dr show," have a happy, healthy new year. "hardball with chris matthews" is up next. 2011. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in up new york. it's our last show of 2010. and tonight we've put together a terrific team to look ahead to 2

2011 and beyond to the presidential election of 2012. we begin with president obama, his party lost 63 seats and its majority in the house, plus six seats in the u.s. senate. how does the he up his presidency and succeed against an emboldened republican majority that wants just one thing -- his defeat in 2012. and what about those republicans like boehner in the house and mcconnell in the senate. in their zeal to smash the presidency, will they learn from the past or destroy themselves. then there are those republicans lining up to take their chances against president obama. what an unusual gop year. lots of hopefuls and no front-runner. palin, romney, huckabee, who could win the nomination? who could win the presidency. and we'll talk about both political parties facing problems from inside their progressives, inside their ranks. will tea party zealots take down the republican establishment? let's introduce our panelist, our team tonight from washington, msnbc political analyst, michelle bernard and

richard wolffe. with me here in new york, steve can ker n kornacki, and jonathan alter. his book's out in paperback, it's got a brand new epiloguing. it's going to be fascinating. he's got one of our spark plug points tonight. i want to start by a simple quiz show round robin starting with michelle down in washington, whose politics i've never quite figured out. and then i want to get to richard, who i think i'v figured out your journalistic point of view, occasionally. but in each case, i want you, as the only woman of the four tonight, to start off. what is the halftime score that president obama faces in the locker room right now? >> you know what, chris, right now i've got obama ahead 56-35. would you like to know why? >> is this a football score? >> this is a football score. i've got him ahead. we've been talking sports all week long. getting elected, first of all, health care reform, s.t.a.r.t., don't ask, don't tell, the --

extending the bush tax cuts, stimulus one, stimulus two, t.a.r.p., his treaty with south korea. i've got him for a ahead despite the losses in the house. i've got him for a ahead, i think with the lame duck congress and everything that happened at the end of the year, obama's presidency is looking really good, despite conventional wisdom. >> i am very much recounting your politics, my dear. >> hey, the facts are the facts. >> you are much more exposed to this president than i had ever calculated before. let me go to richard. richard wolffe, you're an objective journalist. what's the score with this president? >> i have him ahead, but not by much. >> what are the numbers? >> the math is going to hurt my head, but give him three touchdowns. one for effectively two recovery acts. >> three touchdowns ahead of the other side? >> two touchdowns. the republicans -- >> seven points ahead. 21-14. >> yeah. you got the conversions. they won the message war, got back at the house, two

touchdowns for them. for him, i'm going to say health care, effectively two recovery acts and all the other stuff put together counts as one to me. so he's one ahead. >> that's pretty close. your thoughts, steve? >> his approval rating is just a shade over 50%. i would say he's down, maybe 13-10 if i've got to pick a football score. but this is the first half in football where a lot of things go wrong. >> but he looks stronger. >> you get to the locker room and say, you know what, it's only 13-10, we're healthy, we're strong. and that's the mood if you ask republicans. >> 10-13, john altar, i'm really interested to hear. >> give me your numbers. >> i've got it at 23-14. >> okay. >> he's got two big touchdowns. he prevented a depression. we keep forgetting about that. we were headed for 20% unemployment in 2009. >> right. >> health care is huge. the biggest piece of social

legislation since 1965. so there's are two big touchdowns. and i put all the other things in as field goals, really. a bunch of small things. >> let's start with you right now. >> but on the other side, the reason the other team has two touchdowns is that, not just the midterms, they have controlled the politics of the past two years. they are just much more disciplined about driving a message and maintaining political momentum. and that's worth at least one touchdown -- >> so they were able to say, tax cuts are good for all economic groups and obamacare sucks. basically, they keep getting those messages out. >> yeah, they're just much better. and this is a huge problem for obama moving forward. he's got to develop a coherent message that sticks and that lingers in the minds of the american people. >> okay. back to you, michelle. thoughtfulness here, mission statement for the president. we'll get to the dangers facing him later, but what is his mission? two years left, really a year until he's in the thick of the campaign again. are year to really do something as leader of the country, before he becomes a complete partisan figure. what should he try to do?

>> i think going in to 2011, what we're going to see from this president, in terms of all the big government legislation and all of the things that we saw happen going up to the lame-duck congress, i think that's over. what we're going to see from this president is he's going to focus on the economy, on jobs, and giving the country back candidate obama. in terms of, you know, his tone is very, very important. his temperament, where he lost independents and independents decided they were going to hang out with conservatives and with the republican party for the next two years, he has a chance to win those people back, but the only way he's going to do that is if he can remind the american public why they voted for him, and also make people feel that he can connect with the suffering that's going on. so that's what we're going to see in 2011. all of this big-time legislation, i think, that's on hold until he gets re-elected, if he's re-elected. >> let's take a break for we get to richard. a new nbc/"wall street journal" poll has been asked to judge whether president obama will be

a successful president. 42% said not ready to say. i love that number. 42% waiting to think about it. 28% say he's been successful. 29, not. so it's basically even among the pros and cons, but a big, i think healthy, 40-some percent still waiting to see. so your people out there, when gm fails or wall street fails, if he doesn't make that argument, then the other side is going to say, it's big government, squelching out big business or small

business, and that leaves him extremely vulnerable moving into 2012. so he needs a framework, obviously needs to keep busy on the job front. let's face it, there's not going to be a whole lot that's done, but he's got to run and frame that record he's got for the last two years. >> i love it. he's not been scary, he's been necessary. steve? >> but one thing that really strikes me is the mood and expectations that surround the next year for barack obama. listen to the scores from the people you're getting here tonight. i'm the only one that has him down at halftime. if you can think back to the last democratic president at this stage in his presidency, bill clinton, he had a midterm election just as disastrous as obama's, his approval rating is just where obama's is. if you asked that same question 20 years ago, the consensus would be, clinton's down 28-0 at halftime. despite the electoral drubbing -- >> one reason that he's not down, we think he can do what bill did? >> i think we learned from it. and you had a preview of it in this lame-duck session. >> in fact, he wiped out his

whole staff of carville and george and all those people were sort of pushed aside for months and brought in dick morrison and went to the right. >> there was total disarray within the white house and the democratic party for months after 1994 election. >> he seemed to have a better election night than anybody thought, psychologically. why is that? why was it good mentally for him? i thi > >> i think we learned from history. >> john, your thoughts about the mission statement? you've been writing about it in the epilogue to your book. >> he doesn't have one yet. it's not just telling a story, he's been speaking in images and metaphors that stick with people, that they can get their hands on. americans are busy, they get up and go to work. >> the new foundation didn't work? >> the new foundation didn't work, but they better come up with a few other ing what we ca language? is he afraid getting caught trying to float something like the new deal, the great society?

>> i think he thinks that part of that is about the phoneyness of politics. his basic problem, chris, he took mario cuomo's dictum that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose too much to heart. you have to govern in poetry as well. >> i'm so with you. >> innovation nation. >> i talked about how he thrilled me physically, and i'll go back to the speech and go back and look at him, because he talked about our country. that's what thrilled me. that's what got to me. you were in those high school rooms and places. he talked about america and what it could be for people like him who came from mixed backgrounds, and everybody said, god, this guy's the symbol of what we want! >> but he's got to have the music and poetry to sell the math and science. >> let's sell your book right now, "the promise" out by john altar. how the flight from facts would be one of the big stories from 2012. for a large segment of americans, for a ininland from the coast. obama had become a scary face of a changing nation.

the personification of all they found threatening. he represented not too little change, but too much. and yet a country dominated since its founding by older, white, straight christians now had room for african-americans, latinos, gays, and others once considered outside the mainstream. you say, basically, he's so much the face of change that he scares the middle, the old white core of the country, if you will, older white core. and that if anything breaks bad, like not that it's inevitable, but we are in a dangerous world. if something breaks against us in terms of a terrorist attack, you say the entire right-wing media machine led by limbaugh and fox will say, yeah, we warned you. >> yeah, and it's his fault no matter what the facts are. because we used to talk about a liberal media in this country, and there was a liberal media -- >> cronkite, yeah. >> now we have a very powerful conservative media. and they are very, very effective at driving a political agenda. they work hand-in-glove with the republican party and they will make a lot of trouble for barack obama if he slips up. so what he has to do is he has

to appeal to independents by developing what i think of as innovation nation. whatever he wants to call it, where he says, i'm on the side of small business. i'm the small business president. i'm looking out not just for my liberal constituents -- >> it's hard to sell for a guy who comes from saw linski, all of a sudden he's a big burger and bunlgwa president. >> he's got to connect with the inventive american. you talk about the core of the soul of this country, it's inventing and developing ideas. >> i know, but is he connectible? >> he can do that, he just needs to find the right words. >> i want to know what kind of thinking is going on in hawaii right now. our panel stays with us. and when we come back, all those new republicans in congress, will they manage to destroy a president or destroy themselves trying. can they newt themselves? you're watching "hardball." last show of 2010, only on msnbc.

where's the bounce? the legislative accomplishments by the democrats in the last couple of weeks have seemed to have little effect on president obama's approval rating. according to gallup's latest tracking poll. right after christmas, as soon as obama arrived in hawaii for his vacation, the president's approval rating was 47%, two points lower than his rating from the week before. he's averaged 46% since november, not much change at all. look at it just vibrating there around 46. and packed inside every t-pass... is the only battery they trust: duracell. trusted everywhere. affect wheat output in the u.s., the shipping industry in norway, and the rubber industry in south america? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds

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welcome back to "hardball." next week john boehner will become speaker of the house and mitch mcconnell will have 47 republicans in the senate. what's it mean for getting anything done in 2011 and what's it mean for president obama? we're back with our hotshot panel. i want to start with richard on this. you know, boehner's never been mr. excitement. he seems like an okay guy.

he has regular emotions, the crying doesn't bother me a bit, although i think he does overdo it and it's all about him. but here's the question, a golfing, smoking republican republican, does he have the juice to be with leadership of the republican party, and he has promise, which is, they're going to cut the debt, cut taxes, eliminate health care. is he a leader in that kind of firebrand role? >> well, i don't think he's going to have a problem getting the votes up on the board and making a lot of symbolic statements, whether it's on health care or in some of these investigations. he's promised to hand more power to those committee chairman. they're going to do their own thing, especially on the investigations, which is going to make it hard for that message discipline, which they've all been saying they've had for the past couple of years. but they're going to make those statements and then point to the democrats in senate and say, you're block this, you're the party of know, of course, the senate's going to say the same, so you've got gridlock. at the same time, they have all these tea party expectations,

these folks coming in saying they can do something different with the federal government. that's not going to happen. >> so if he lets 1,000 flowers bloom, steve kornacki, your suggestion, richard, is that it's not going to keep the message that we want smaller government. it will just be a red dog, as we say in football, of the opposition, just going after everything obama's done without a mess. your thoughts about that? does it get too crazy out there? >> there might be, we'll find out ifs the there is, a breakin point for the house republicans. there's going to be 242 of them total. >> and they need 218 to do anything. >> and only three of those 242 can be considered moderate republicans. and there's one overriding lesson that the average house republican took out of the 2010 election cycle, it's that if you're wrong on just one important vote, you are in grave danger of losing a primary. so if the house passes, let's say, defunding of health care or defunding of wall street reform, one to have these tea party items and it gets stalled in the

senate, my question is at what point do those republicans in the house decide that they're going to compromise, that they're going to sign off on funding for one of these things, versus standing back and refusing to do it and prompting some kind of a shutdown. >> so you're saying that the house will pass things that the tea partyiers want, but at some point won't -- >> i could see a scenario where it passes the house, it fails in the senate, and they kick it down the road again until october. but at a certain point, there's going to have to be a decision made by the house, do we want to fund the government, and if we want -- >> you mean threaten to shut down the government if the senate doesn't do what they do? >> when do these tea partiers in the house, when do they compromise? >> do you ever see, just shutting down the government, like newt did, only saying, if you don't do what we want done, what tea parties want us to do, we're shutting this whole place down. >> we haven't seen anything like this who knowsly, if you look at history, since the last radical

republicans in the reconstruction period, where compromise was literally a dirty word. and the republican leadership has tried to tell folks, look, compromise isn't a dirty word. >> here's boehner a couple weeks ago with leslie stoal on "60 minutes." let's listen. >> you say you want common ground, but you're not going to compromise. i don't understand that. >> when you say the word "compromise," a lot of americans look up and go, oh, they're going to sell me out. so finding common ground, i think, makes more sense. >> why won't you say -- you're afraid of the word! >> i reject the word. >> michelle bernard, reject the word. in other words, why go to congress -- why -- they don't recognize the legitimacy of the other party, basically. if you say you don't compromise, you're saying the people who won seats in democratic districts aren't really members of congress, only we republicans are members of congress. isn't that what you're saying? no compromise. >> well, he's saying no compromise and i would say it's probably pretty safe to say that most democrats don't trust republicans and republicans

don't trust the democrats. but here's the bottom line. the american public, particularly independents, have shown that they really don't have any party allegiance right now. they don't want gridlock. they want members of congress to do what they pay them to do. >> what is that? >> which is to affect change and do the things that are best for the country. and gridlock, threatening to shut down the government, won't work. the republican takeover, they have taken over the house, they've tone over the governorships. they have taken over sho many sta state seats across the country, it won't be enough to just blame something negative -- >> i'm getting confused in terms of what you're saying, in terms of principle, you want to get something done. and what john and the others are saying, these guys got elected to say no to everything. that's what they're doing. here's mitch mcconnell saying, he's going to try to kill everything president obama stands for, including his presidency. >> some have said it was indelicate of me to suggest that

our top political priority over the next two years should be to deny president obama a second term. if our primary legislative goals are to repeal and replace the health spending bill, to end the bailouts, cut spending, and shrink the size and scope of government, the only way to do all of those things is to put someone in the white house who won't veto any of these things. >> i still see a republican brain out there. and the brain says, no. this guy, obama, can be beaten. with we can just say no to him until he dies. >> i think they're going to try that, but it might not work the way it did the last time. as michelle said, when you have power, you have responsibilities, and the american people expect you to deliver it. look how popular the lame-duck tax compromise was. it was at 67%, i think. so they are going to be under some pressure to get some things done. the way i think it will play out initially, beyond your very good points about the budget, is that they will pass a repeal of health care in the house. they're pledged to do that. and then at that point, it's not

going anywhere in the senate, but if obama has half a brain politically, which i think he will on this, he'll bring out the seniors who right now are in the process of getting 50% reductions in their drug costs under health care reform, if they're in the so-called doughnut hole. he'll bring out all the kids between high school and age 26, who are suddenly getting insurance. and he will start to build a constituency against repeal. and he'll make them pay a political price for having repealed this. and i think that's very possibly -- >> i see a big fight on the republicans -- we're going to get the democratic fight. we'll be right back with our panel. christine o'donnell, by the way, says she's not being investigated because she did anything wrong, but just because a very big-name democrat happens to be in her state and is going after her. we'll take a break from reality with o'donnell and the "hardball sideshow" and see which direction her wand is pointing tonight, only on msnbc.

wow. back to "hardball" for the sideshow. first up it's witchcraft. amid the probe into possible misuse of her campaign money, christine o'donnell is now pointing her wand. "given that the king of the delaware political establishment so happens to be the vice president of the most liberal presidential administration in u.s. history, it is no surprise that misuse and abuse of the fbi would not be off the table." well, come on, tabatha. joe biden's coming after you? anyway, today on abc, o'donnell doubled down on the conspiracy talk. let's watch. >> you have to look at this whole thug politic tactic for what it is. we were informed that the delaware political establishment was going to use every resource available to them to, you know,

including launching phony investigations, making false accusations, and tying me up with lawsuits to make sure that i can't move forward politically. >> "can't move forward politically." hang on, there o'donnell raised an incredible $7 million for her senate race and still lost to chris coons by 17 points. you don't need a conspiracy to stop christine o'donnell's political career. voters have already done it next, bill richardson has until tomorrow, his last day in office, to pardon billy the kid, yes, that one. the iconic outlaw who was convicted of murder back in 1878, but escaped prison soon after to only be shot by a prison. governor richardson has now set up a website on whether he should honor that deal, receiving over 800 responses so far. the verdict so far on death or life for billy, 430 argue for

the pardon, 379 oppose it. kind of even-steven there. finally, jim demint, the senator from north carolina invokes a republican hero. he has just placed 2012's mama grizzly on the highest of conservative pedestals, saying of sarah palin, "i believe she's done more for the republican party than anyone since ronald reagan." let's recap the perspective of that accomplishment. ronald reagan served two terms as governor of california, two terms as president of the united states, and helped to end the cold war. sarah palin, she cut out halfway through her first term as governor. historical significance? i doubt it. and senator demint who backed romney in 2008 says he still has an open mind about the 2012 race. the fact that he has a mind is news. shouldn't say that. up next, our panelist is back. could sarah palin really win the 2012 republican nomination? you're watching "hardball" on msnbc. i'm just not sure what... what is it?

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i'm shartia brantley with your cnbc market wrap. stocks slipping just a bit today, despite some encouraging economic reports. the dow jones industrials falling 15 points. the s&p 500 dipping two points. and the nasdaq losing four. volume still surprisingly low, even for a holiday week. but overall, investors and analysts have optimistic about the year ahead. a report today showing $335 million flowing into u.s. stock mutual funds last week, the first inflow in nearly three years. and economic news, pending home sales jumping more than expected, but still below the normal levels for this time of year. the chicago pmi reporting a big spike in chicago area manufacturing boosted by gains

in employment and new orders. and first-time jobless claims falling last week to their lowest level in more than two years. and a quick look at the stock movers today. we had united continental surging 2 1/3% after service employees ratified a 30-year contract with the teamsters union. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball." back to "hardball." for republicans, 2011 is the warm-up for the presidential race of 2012. take a look and see some of the gop contenders on the screen. will the party follow its tradition and go hard right after losing with a moderate like john mccain, or will it play it safe and try to win by reclaiming the center. our panel's back. msnbc political analyst michelle bernard and richard wolffe down in washington, as well as up here with me in new york,

salon's steve kornacki and "newsweek's" jonathan alter. by the way, john, i don't think this snow falling has been helpful to michael bloomberg. let's go back to the fundamental question. michelle bernard, i want you as someone's politics i still can't discern, answer the question. what is the mission of sarah palin this january 1st forward? >> chris, i wish i had a crystal ball so -- >> well, you are my crystal ball. >> i cannot figure out -- you know, we honestly can't figure out, is sarah palin enjoying the limelight and sort of teasing the american public with the possibility that she might run for president in order to, you know, keep her earnings skyrocketing, or is she really going to run for president come january? is she enjoying being a sort of queen maker for candidates in the republican party? i think she is, but whether or not that leads her to a very difficult, i predict, presidential run, should she decide to run, i really, with honestly, don't know.

she has a lot of support in the conservative base. people in the conservative base like her, but that does not mean that people want her to be the next president of the united states. and if she decides to go that way, she's going to have a very, very tough row to hoe. people will always remember the very infamous katie couric interview, "what do you read?" and her stumbling. >> carville and mattin are a good show, they're very smart, but they are a show. not running for anything. and much smarter than sarah palin, but can she continue as a show? >> sure, she can. i haven't heard one credible reason from republicans or democrats on either why she wouldn't want the nomination or win the nomination? she wants the limelight, well, she can continue with the limelight on a presidential run. she can make more money after it than right now. and by the way, she's made so much money, she doesn't need to work again anyway. so what's the downside here? the most reasonable argument is,

the party looks at the numbers and says, she cannot win the general election. was that a factor in christine o'donnell? was that a factor in any of the tea party candidates? no! they still nominated them. so the more the establishment tries to stop her, the more unstoppable she becomes. >> so you see her running for president? >> yeah, absolutely, and dominating the landscape. >> michelle, what's her mission? to make money as a political show, which she is, i guess a good one, or to run for president? what's her mission right now? >> chris, you're talking to me? >> yes. >> i'm sorry, again -- >> you don't know? i don't know. >> i honestly don't know. i think she's enjoying both. i think she wants to make -- earn as much money as possible. that's why she left her governorship in alaska to years early. and i think she's enjoying being the queenmaker -- >> you say show, richard says run. >> she can do both! >> she could do both. >> here's the argument, and i think it's a compelling one and getting more compelling by the

week for her not to run. there was a poll that came out the other day that in the past year, there's been a 20-point drop in the number of republicans who are saying they are willing or likely to vote for sarah palin for president in 2012. it's now under 50%. mike huckabee's number by contrast is down to -- >> she's down to 33 in alaska. >> the sort of republican information networks are starting to turn on sarah palin. it's not just democrats mocking her, it's people like karl rove -- >> i'm hearing a turn against her. do you think her mission is to run or just be a show? >> i think she's going to run. look, we're always wrong about these things -- >> love it! >> we're always wrong about these things. that's the quote of the week. you're selling books tonight. john altar, you selling books tonight? that's a good foreward for a book. let's go to peter baker, he says obama's team is speculating the following, that huckabee may wind up being their opponent. obama's aides doubt sarah palin will actually run and figure

that mitt romney cannot get the republican nomination for the simple fact that he enacted health care up in mass and is no way going to get past that. some people say obama will find himself running against mike huckabee, the former arkansas governor. let's go on to that one in a minute. but basically, is huckabee making a run? you think so, steve? are you behind his run? are you pushing him? >> when i start to look at this field, and my judgment is, who knows what's in sarah palin's mind? i think if she does run, she fizzles badly. >> loses iowa to him? >> oh, yeah. i think that's why there's an opening for mike huckabee. if you look at his poll numbers -- >> he knocks her off in iowa, he's in. >> and i think romney has serious problems. >> huckabee? >> he's not even sure that he can knock her off. he says if she runs, she clears the field. this was before her recent drop in the polls, but huckabee has always had trouble raising money. >> do you need money in iowa? >> maybe not in iowa, but if you're going to go the distance and outlast mitt romney and the rest of them -- >> but doesn't he just have to knock her out once? isn't it all about that first

round in iowa for huckabee? >> it's going to be a gauntlet that he's going to have to run. >> who's he have to beat after iowa once he's beaten her? >> he has to beat romney. the idea of of writing romney off, as huckabee said of romney, he looks like the guy that laid you off. that's a problem for him, he's not very appealing, but he also looks like the guy that might hire you. he knows a lot about job creation. he will convey a lot of that in the debates. >> do you think huckabee's targeting romney lately? >> yes, he is. >> says he voted against the tax cut for the rich. >> look at what mitt romney represents likely to the average republican primary voter, and look at what the average republican primary voter did in 2010. i can't think of a top-tier republican prospect for 2012 who is more spectacularly ill-suited to the mood of today's republican base than mitt romney. i take palin out, chris christie is my dark horse and i say huckabee. >> here's what you're forgetting, the republican

primaries, these tea party primaries in off year elections, it's a smaller group of conservatives. when you get into a presidential primary, the republican party is a bigger tent -- >> we all agree -- i got to go to washington and check this out with richard and michelle. is this down to three people? sarah, romney and huckabee? michelle? >> chris, you know, i don't -- i really don't think any of them, when we get to 2012, are going to be in the top slot. i honestly believe that the advent of the tea party has completely changed republican politics for the foreseeable future. i think that the republican party, if it's going to survive, if people want to actually win and end up in the white house in the foreseeable future, i think all of these people's time has come and gone and that the republicans are going to be looking for a new face, someone like a chris christie with a different tone, a different temperament, someone who can appeal to independents, conservatives, and to people of color. and you're not going to get that with anyone with we saw two years ago. >> i just saw a little bit of

news on christie from someone close to him, not at all likely in 2012, but very likely for 2016. >> all right, next, progressives on the left and tea partiers to the right. that's the problem for both parties. will the center hold against the threats from right and left? who's going to end up? i have a feeling the tea partiers want to take down the center as well. i think obama's in better shape with the left than the republican regulars are with the right. we'll be right back on msnbc. [ bottle one ] oh, great. mr. clean magic eraser extra power. [ bottle two ] bro, will you relax? i'm pretty sure there's not much we can do about it. ugh. he's not even trying.

he is actual magic. not impressed. [ gasps ] no! i didn't even know that could get dirty! can we even clean a leather shoe? what do you mean? what is a shooee? he's cleaning things that we don't even know what they are. gloves? brush? chime in any time here. [ male announcer ] effortlessly removes more grime per swipe. clean all around the house with the mr. clean magic eraser extra power. well, a small win for the tea party. "the washington post" reporting when the 112th congress reopens next week, republicans will doing something that has never been done before in the history of congress, they will read the constitution aloud, and then they will require that every new bill require a statement by the lawmaker who wrote it citing the constitutional authority to enact that legislation. it will occur january 6th, one day after john boehner is sworn in as speaker.

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welcome back. starting next week, president obama will be looking over his left shoulder at progressives, of course, while mitch mcconnell and john boehner will be watching their right flank and the new tea party types. which party will be better off, better able to cope with their extreme elements, or more extreme elements. we're back with our panel. a great political question. the governing parties, the governing aspects of each party as opposed to the critical aspects. i want to start with richard. in this on the left, i mean, you know the netroots people, the progressives in the congress, they're the ones that are left. let's be blunt. they survived. they come from inner cities and wealthier suburbs in the bay area and places like that. is there going to be -- let's

start with the left, because i would like to do that first. it will take less time. is he going to face the kind of thing he faced on the public option, on the tax cuts for the wealthy. will there be a new sort of burr in his saddle going into this year from the left? >> i don't think so, because the cycle started earlier. it's a bit like the economic recession started early enough that people could get through it. they're feeling a little more encouraged after that lame-duck session. and he'll be sparring with republicans more as well. so a lot of the frustration will find its channel, its vent there. where they find reassurance, i think, will be seeing the first afghan troop withdrawals come down at the middle of the summer of next year. on the other hand, they're not going to get guantanamo bay, but folks in congress have themselves to blame. democrat members voted against it as well as republicans. there's still going to be that lingering resentment and question mark as he moves to the center, but he's not going to be doing the big things like health care, so they can't say that

their expectations are sky-high anymore. >> but their defense of health care will be a united of center/left operation, right, steve? >> right. i think the story of the first two years of the obama administration was they were in expansion mode, and thousand they're defending. defend the health care, defend wall street reform, defend the social safety net. and i hate to continue to draw comparisons to bill clinton, but you remember, bill clinton was never really seen as the candidate of his party's base. he was always the centrist new democrat. >> can you energize the netroots if you support the president again? is it possible you can get contributors and supporters to pay attention to your website if you move closer to him, or do you have to always be as they've been for the last year or so? >> i think the whole idea that barack obama has a big problem on his left or a burjoning problem on his left is totally overstated and totally misunderstood -- >> do you watch this network? i hear it all the time oon thn network. >> you hear it, but take a look at the polls. when right-wing commentators

move on a conservative politician, that guy or girl's approval ratings drop like crazy. >> i know all that! excuse me, i work here. i've gone through a season of withering attacks. i'm sort of on the center left on a lot of issues. withering attack on things like public option, and then on this tax cut deal -- >> doesn't trickle down, though. >> john, is he going to find common ground with his left, or will he have to flight off that left-wing flank, if you will? >> i think steve's absolutely right, and also a repeal of don't ask, don't tell helps, because he delivered on a key issue for the left. the next big one, which i think he's also going to try to deliver on, is the dream act. and there's a moral imperative there -- >> can he do that? >> -- to no penalizing the children of immigrants. it's very important to the left. >> he feels left on that, if you will. >> he does. and he said at his last press conference, it was the biggest disappointment that he had lately. he can find common ground on that. i think if they can pick off

republican senators who want expansion of -- >> the highly educated immigr t immigrants. >> i've got to go around the table. richard already did it. michelle, your thoughts? will there be common ground left of center next year, this year? >> i think there'll be some common ground. i think issues like education reform, maybe something on immigration, something dealing with lowering the corporate tax rate, i think those are areas where we're going to the see some coalition building and people working and finding true areas of common ground. i absolutely and finding true areas of common ground, i absolutely foresee that. >> richard, is there going fob a right-wing assault on boehner and on the issue of, like, stupid things from their perspective from the tea party? >> yeah, budget, debt ceiling, absolutely. they have -- they have way too high expectations about shrinking government and stymieing the president. he's going to be able to pick off republican senate on energy, on some of the small ball stuff on the economy and it'll be frustrating for them.

they'll number rebellion mode because that's what they were born do. >> somebody said only two modate -- who said it tonight. >> steve. that's why i'm looking at these fights that are coming up like on the budget, on spending, on appropriations for health care. i'm saying if it comes to an issue where you know to kind of keep the government going, you have to go along with obamacare and you're the republican who votes to fund that in one of these votes, then you're vulnerable in the primary. you voted for obamacare funding. >> just to take some love on this show because we argue, what would michele bachmann on debt ceiling expansion? how could she vote for it. >> i imagine she'll always be against it. >> the leadership said that you have to come forward and vote for this darng thing. >> that's what i'm worried about. >> balkman is in war with boehner the big fight. >> to me boehner looks like a pretty weak speaker coming in. the last two years his job was just to say no to everything and for the next two years it's the tea party. >> you and i study history and you're great at it. joe mccarthy i'm not putting

bachmann in the same category because it causes too much trouble. attacking democrats and they get in the power the republicans and they keep on attacks. mccarthy didn't stop attacking when eisenhower kept in he kept attacking and playing the communist army and everything else. will she keep attacking from the right in the republican caucus? >> i think that she will and the question is whether they'll start to eat their own and whether you're going to have a situation that when there are some adults and bane or the debt ceiling. >> he's actually saying grown ups. >> right he's using the word grown up, that's their talking point right now is let's have an adult conversation quote unquote. >> so the tea party holding up the whole operation. >> i don't think that it is and when they get a load of some of these compromises part of doing numbers washington and they'll be for real and maybe dissension. >> purist, almost a puritan thing, we don't know anything about dirty washington. we don't know anything about pork barrel or earthquake marks like the dirty stuff or people who get elected to things in jobs in washington, we're cleaner than that.

is there something basically antiseptic with the tea party that they can't bridge the gap? >> people who believe in ideological purity might have some sort of you know moral obligation to move forward with a lot of things that they've talked about, all of which for the most part, make -- make sense, deficit reduction, cutting spending. cutting taxes, all of that makes sense, but governing is very different than rhetoric and i think the very interesting question is exactly of what jonathan just raised. we've talked about splintering within the republican parent two years ago, i don't think that we've seen anything yet. january is going to be amazing, how john boehner is going to manage this new crop of people within the republican party will be more interesting than i think watching the republicans fight president obama. >> when we come back -- >> chris, they'll be cursing a lot. >> i know. when we come back my question to all four people on the team here, what unemployment rate do we have to have in this country for barack obama to get re-elected? i want a number. a number. we'll be right back with your thoughts.

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we're back with the team michelle and richard first. the toughest question for any politician, what does the unemployment, the jobless rate, have to be down to in the month before the presidential election of 2012 for barack obama to have a good chance of re-election? >> chris, i'm going to say -- i'm going to answer that with two prongs. one, i think nationwide it needs to be at about 8% but i think one of the most important things that the president's going to have to really focus on is making sure he gets the

unemployment rate down. not only across country, but find a way to focus on people of color within the african-american community, their unemployment vate 17% and it's that high within the hispanic community as well. >> i got you. >> and he needs those people on your side. >> your thoughts, richard. >> it needs to be heading down firmly and -- >> okay, what does it have to be down to. >> yeah, it was 7.6 when he came into office. ideally it needs to be at or at least that. >> thank you, well prpds i'm sorry for being pushy. >> hey, all well. >> i don't have anything to add to that. >> under eight. >> it really does have to be almost certainly be under eight, because otherwise -- >> you know that i am holding you to this, writing this down, guys. >> he's starting to get swamped with that the pressure at four years. >> you know why i say eight, promised by what the first or second year? christine romans said 18%. >> but basing those on third

quarter gdp and in the fourth quarter it fell off of the table. >> you know what the vote will say to that mularkey. >> one thing to keep in mind. >> before you give me the thought in mind what is the number? >> i think that it could be 8.5% and lower. >> 8.5% you're the odd man out. >> the unemployment rate was higher than it had been on -- >> but seven. >> but starting to come down and people were feeling good about. >> had come from 11 to 7. give him a break. >> well seven points but i think that there's an appreciation of people that this is sort of extreme circumstance. >> that dark at midnight. i'm sorry, anyway, guys, so that's the one point, and the other point that i would ask you is obama getting re-elected? richard? >> incoming president is incredibly hard to win seat. if i airplane betting man i would say yes. >> michelle? >> right now i'd say yes. >> okay. >> john alter? >> i will say it's wimpy but i will say maybe. i think a lot of ways to lose, too. >> okay great. >> i'll put my money on it and say yes. >> three out of four. three out of four i have no comment and simply the