cuts? 62% of your said yes. 38% of you said no. i want to hear from you. there are a lot of ways to get in touch with the show. go to ed.msnbc.com. or check out my radio show. tell me what you think on facebook.com/edshultzshow and talk to me on twitter.com/wegoted. "hardball" with chris mathews starts right now. see you monday. teed up. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris mathews in washington. leading off tonight, tempest in a tea party? the leaders of the republican party just learned a hard fact. it its tea party members want to cut $2.5 trillion in spending over the next decade. and they plan to do it without going where a lot of money is --

no cuts in medicare, no cuts in social security, no cuts in the pentagon. that leaves just about every other area of the government from medical research to law enforcement to get -- that have to get cut big. will it sell with the people? and a more interesting question -- will it sell with speaker boehner? plus we learned today that michele bachmann who leads the statement in head scratching statements will give her own tea party response to the president's state of the union address. so you'll hear from three people that night, the president, paul ryan, the republican response, and michele bachmann. a three-ring circus. >> tonight talking to an iowa group about the american freedom, we enjoy and said quote, will it end with us? will we allow this great experiment in human liberty called america to end on our watch?

how about the leap in the polls? we'll ask the "hardball" strategist about the changing nature. and check out what happened last night on colbert's show last night. let's begin with the deep spending cuts, the tea party is demanding from the republican leadership. philip dennis is an organizer of the dallas tea party, and dean clancy with me, legislative counsel for freedom work, the dick armey outfit. here's the front page today -- gop bloc presses leaders to slash even more. now, here's the question i want to ask. i want to start with dean, who's here with me right now. how many jobs will be cut if you cut all this spending? how many federal jobs? >> well, first of all, chris, the american people want to see the federal government shrink. the politics of spending is changing. the tea party grassroots that we at freedom works are part of, we want to see the federal government get smaller.

>> but how many jobs? if you cut $3 trillion, i think you'll cut a million jobs. >> you will. >> that's where the money goes, it goes to checks. >> you will eliminate jobs through attrition. just go back to the 2008 levels before the huge surge in the government. >> how many jobs is that? >> i don't know specifically. >> so you want to make these cuts without knowing. let me ask, do you know how many jobs you're cutting if you slash away at the programs. i notice you're being careful to not go after the simple check-writing. you're basically getting rid of functions in the government, which involved people. how many people are you throwing onto the rolls when you go about this business. >> if they're federal workers, not enough. we'll be happy when we get these federal workers off the backs of the american producers and taxpayers. those are nonproducing jobs. they take money out of our checks to pay their salaries. they have over-the-top salaries and benefits. it's a disaster zone.

my answer is there's not enough federal jobs being cut. >> wow, do you agree with that? >> absolutely. >> that's pretty tough. all these people if they're unemployed -- you say they're all bums. i get your argument. but they're still going to be a bunch of bums looking for jobs. i don't think they are at all. i think there's a mixed bag. >> first of all, federal employment is not a jobs program. it's not simply to get people off the spaublg swaidewalks. if folks are making $120,000 a year, they must be talented. >> you think they make that kind of money? the people that are going to get bounced? >> in canada, they cut 20% of their government in the 1990s. they got their public debt down from 70% of their economy down to 30%. there was no social upheaval. people were fine, nobody starved on the sidewalk. >> that's the first time i heard a conservative brag about

canadian government policy. i thought you thought they were all socialists up there. so you say throw these bums out of works they're just leaf rakers and paper pushers. i don't agree with your argument, but fine. what's it going to do to the economy if you start throwing $2 or $3 trillion worth of people off the payrolls? what's that going to do to the jobless rate overall? dennis? >> one of the things it's going to do is free up the taxpayer. so we're not paying as much money keeping those people employed at a federal level. they will become productive or they will starve, if we can get rid of some of the cradle to grave welfare. >> you're at the raw seat of the hurricane, sir. i say it like it is. throw them off the payroll, see if they starve, and if they don't, they might turn out to be productive. >> you know what chris, that's what i live with every day. if i can't make my living, if i get fired, i starve if i don't perform. it's not the same with the unionized federal workers up

there. you might not like to hear that. calling them bums was your word. i do believe some have talent and they will make it in the private sector. >> but you're saying they're not doing anything productive, and that would be my word. what's your word for someone who's not productive? >> i don't think it's a question of whether those people are productive. i'm sure they're good people. the question is should the federal government be doing all the things it's doing? it's in too many lines of business. it needs to shrink back. >> a political question. why are you guys so political? i thought you were purist? why do you leave harmless med tear, defense, social security. is that because the middle class benefit from these programs? >> we don't. no, no, no freedom works -- >> so you're willing to cut social security, the third rail? >> we are. but understand we do that through reform, just like paul ryan. we want to see benefit growth slowed gradually. >> how do you do that? >> you have to change the benefit formula. >> you mean lower benefits? >> long term, but mostly for people at the upper end of the

income. >> a means test? >> well, no -- >> you said upper end of the income. you're means testing. >> that's what a lot of progressives support. >> but do you support means testing? >> we support reforming social security so that long term it's sustainable. >> you just slipped into something that's interesting, which is where some people think you should cut. are you one of those who believe that people who make a ton of money, retire with a ton of money shouldn't get the same benefits as somebody who's retired on, say, a teacher's salary, someone who doesn't have a whole lot of money when they quit? do you think we should means test. you just said the upper end of the income, you can save on benefit formula. what did you mean by that? >> it means the benefits are growing faster than the economy -- >> what's your proposal? do you want to cut the benefits of people who make a lot of money? >> yes. >> okay, do you, philip? are you willing to means test social security now for the first time since the '30s? >> this is paul ryan, by the way --

>> anyone who's paid into social security deserves to get what's coming back to them. >> of course. >> hold on a second. >> are you for means testing social security? >> hold on one second. there's a lot of low-hanging fruit out there. >> it's not means testing. that's not right. there's a lot of low-hanging fruit. we found out yesterday illegal alien are taking 1 million jobs from americans each year. >> change of subject. you said you're going to means test by saying you're going to change the formula. >> that's not means testing. >> what does it mean? >> it means that the benefits can't be growing so much faster than the economy they end up being -- >> above the higher income level. >> right. that's not the same as means testing. >> it's asking people how much

income they make to decide what their benefits are. i'm getting conflict. you would like to cut the benefits of wealthy people lower than other people, because they don't need the money. is that a fair estimate of what you plan to do long term? >> that's not unreasonable. >> is that what you intend, philip? reduce the benefits of people who make a lot of money in social security because they don't need it? >> the country is going bankrupt. >> i'm asking what you mean by changing the formula for benefits, tell me what you mean? >> chris, this is just a crazy talk you always engage in here. >> no,'s finding the truth floug the thicket. you're calling it low-happeninging fruit. i'm trying to look through the thicket of words to try the find. when you say changing the benefit formula for people at a higher income level, i hear means testing. >> the formula is not perfectly the same for everybody now, but more importantly how much is enough, chris?

>> i agree. let's get back to the philosophy. you guys have a political challenge, a republican party in congress. philip, your tern. you have a leader, boehner has been around for 20 years, a guy named hal rogers on appropriations for 30 years, spending money. he's known as the prince of pork back home. you're counting on these guys to carry your water? your thought. philip. >> i am hopefully optimistic but not counting on anything with these guys. we saw what they did when bush was in power. they spent money like a bunch of democrats, and that was really what's caused the republicans to lose power and put obama into office. we're going to hold their feet to the fire. if they are not prepared to make the big-boy decisions we want them to make, then we're going to find bigger boys in 2012. we're not married to boehner. >> how do you knock a guy like boehner out of his district? how do you beat him at home or hal rogers at home? these guys are unbeatable? >> what you do is don't go after them per se, but change the majority just as we did in the

2010 elections. we have 80-plus new reps in congress. the democrats lost 63 people in the house, because they weren't doing what americans want. >> what's your message for mr. hal rogers, 30-year vet van of appropriations, the prince of pork, your ally, now chairing appropriations. what are you saying to him tonight, dean? >> i'm saying it's time to cut spending. $3 trillion over ten years is nothing. >> or else? >> or we'll hold you accountable, absolutely. >> mr. dennis, your message, he sat in office, feeding at the federal trough, eating the low-hanging fruit, using your phrase, what do you say to these guys who can't be beaten? what's your threat? >> you better find jesus or watch your butt, because we're watching you in 2012. or you'll be in deep crap. >> well, dennis, i think everyone knows where you stand.

thank you on a friday. please come back. you're refreshing to hear from. get that message up about means testing. >> it's not means testing. i know, we have the tape. no surprise about michele bachmann. she's running for president, apparently. talking about how our great experiment in human liberty may be coming to an end? what does she know that we don't. let's listen to her. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. discover customersl are getting five percent cashback bonus at restaurants. it pays to switch, it pays to discover.

i want to fix up old houses. ♪ [ woman ] when i grow up, i want to take him on his first flight. i want to run a marathon. i'm going to work with kids. i'm going to own my own restaurant. when i grow up, i'm going to start a band. [ female announcer ] at aarp we believe you're never done growing. thanks, mom. i just want to get my car back. [ female announcer ] together we can discover the best of what's next at aarp.org. getting closer to the magic 50% mark. that's what he needs. scored to the new chicago tribune/rahm is at 44%. with the rest of the field behind both. bill clinton came to town to stump for his former senior

adviser and tonight, andy sandberg is campaigning for rahm, the guy he plays on "hard night live." "hardball," we'll be right back. and i will start after lunch...tomorrow. don't just think about it. introducing lendingtree's free "look before you lock" tool. enter the terms of your existing loan offer to instantly find out how it compares to other offers, areas you may be overpaying, and even negotiation points to help you get a better deal. only at lendingtree.

>> if you speak in iowa today, most people think you're running for president. i'm going to iowa because i'm speaking about the issues that i believe will be important for 2012. that's why i'm going to iowa. >> welcome back. that's michele bachmann headed off to the campaign trail from iowa. she's from minnesota and many think she's running from senate out there. she's certainly teasing it by going to iowa where all the voters are. the question is, is she serious? and the tea party expressed announce the michele bachmann will give her own state of the union address tuesday night as a response to the president's and as a response to the republican reaction gwynn by paul ryan of

wisconsin. sh's out there as the third leg of the chair. she's got chutzpah. joan and richard wolfe. joan, you have to pay attention, this person who's fairly new to the political arena is out there saying i think she's saying if sarah palin doesn't run, i will, i'm there. i really am enjoying it, chris. look, i don't agree with anything she stands for, but i do admire her coming up against paul ryan. he was the fist to say no, michele, thanks for your tea party support but we don't want you as republican conference chair. and so i don't think it's any accident that now the party has enshrined rising star paul ryan to rebut the state of the union. she's going to come out there and rebut paul ryan. >> you rebutted both of them.

you just knocked them both off their pedestal. maybe i do know you well enough, we don't have the super -- we have super egos, that thing freud says slow down, stop it, you're making an ass of yourself. these people that run the country don't have that thing. >> richard has it. >> she just runs for president without any pretense of having the material to run with. she's issuing out now, by the way, scripts of what she's -- like a president. >> yeah. >> quote -- >> prepared remarks. >> michele bachmann, the promise of america is under threat as never before, of course. for 21 generations the torch of liberty has been successfully passed from one generation to the next. the question we need to ask ourselves tonight is will it end with us? will we be the first generation to fail when we pass the torch

of liberty? will we allow the great experiment called america -- i love that wording there. that's the comment that sounds like she's, what's thomas payne? where's the reason? >> these totally echos what you hear from glenn beck every night of the week. it's as if the civil war, the cold war never happened. >> i like what she says, too. >> but it makes no sense. she does skew the race, whether in or out. she is, by the way, born in iowa. >> i heard that factoid. >> she skews things to the right. if she's another woman on stage if she does get to those debates. as outlandish as it seems, it's now mainstream for runs -- republicans.

alan keyes, what he used to be she is there now. >> she has a family, she's a united states member of congress. that's a pretty big job, yet she has this time to do all this, gallivanting, running around for president. i don't know how people live their lives anyway. here she is talking about repealing health care. and, of course, repealing obama. let's listen. >> obama care, as we know, is the crown jewel of socialism. it is socialized medicine. and to those across the united states who think this may be a symbolic act, we have a message for them. this is not symbolic. this is why we were sent here, and we will not stop until we e repeal a president and put a

president in the position of the white house who will repeal this bill, until we repeal the current senate, put in a senate that will listen to the american people and repeal this bill. >> let's talk geography for a second here. she's from minnesota, right? i know they picked jesse ventura, which was an odd choice. joan, what happened to that state of gene mccarthy, hubert humphrey, walter mondale, paul wellstone? how could they flip far enough to go to her zone of life? >> they haven't entirely. we still have al franken in there. we've got good progressives in minnesota. she's got her district. her district likes her when she goes back. i don't even see her being a statewide candidate in minnesota. >> people say she's going to take on amy klobuchar.

>> well, she's going to and she's going to put up a good fight. i don't think it's necessarily a fa fait accompli that she'll win. she's extreme for the state of minnesota, not for her district. you know i supported the public option, so i know that obama is not a socialist and that is not socialized medicine. second of all, we do not repeal our presidents. we elect them. i guess i'm glad she said repeal, and didn't say anything about reload. there's a fundamental misunderstanding about how our democracy works. it's shocking. this is a congressman you don't hear much of, paul brown from georgia. he was on a radio show the other day, responding about republicans and democrats as a gesture, sitting together at the stadium. they're all doing it, buddying up to show they don't hate each other. he doesn't like that idea. let's listen. >> i already believe very firmly that it is a trap and a ruse that the democrats are proposing. they don't want civility.

they want silence from the republicans. the sitting together, being kissy-kissy is just another way to try to silence republicans. then when people stand up to what the democrats are going to be doing when the barack obama spews out all of his venom, then if they're scattered throughout the republican, then it won't be as noticeable as if we're sitting apart. >> that is the most paranoid -- that the whole trick, they're going to sit together so they can separate their voices when they applaud the spewing -- what's he call it? the venom coming out of the our president's mouse that we won't notice they're all democrats. do you know what kind of a paranoid, crazy mind it takes to

say something like that? >> all that hope-filled venom that he spews out all the time >> you have to go cave after cave of fear. oh, they want to silence us. >> listen, there's a trap. it's a trap. i had this picture of like a bear trap or a leg trap, the poor guy. he's going to be sitting there and boom his leg will be in a trap and then someone will kiss them. are what are those democrats doing? it's hilarious. >> kissy-kissy? >> the conspiracy to shut them up is not that rare. sarah palin said they're trying to shut her up and sean hannity and end the republic. it's what they talk about. and of course it makes no sense. but the idea of censor championship, there's some secret plan to censor them, obviously with kissing? it's bizarre. >> a truly strange man. let's keep that name in mind. i think we're going to hear more from this guy, paul brown. i think it's only begun.

thank you very much, have a nice weekend fellas. joan walsh and richard wolfe. up next, the colbert report, i was lucky to get on with steve, what a great guy, even though he plays this crazy person. next on "the sideshow." you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. somewhere in america, a city comes to life. it moves effortlessly, breathes easily. it flows with clean water. it makes its skyline greener and its population healthier. all to become the kind of city

people want to live and work in. somewhere in america, we've already answered some of the nation's toughest questions. and the over sixty thousand people of siemens are ready to do it again. siemens. answers. as much as i can about a company before i invest in it. that's why i like fidelity. they give me tools and research i can't get anywhere else. their stock screener lets me search for stocks with more than 140 criteria. i can see what their experts are thinking and even call them to bounce an idea off of one of their investment professionals. a good strategy relies on good insight. if you wanted to learn more about a company, i think you'd actually have to be there. y you t to try lifting one of these. a unique sea salt added to over 40 campbell's condensed soups. helps us reduce sodium, but not flavor. so do a few lifts. campbell's.® it's amazing what soup can do.™

you should get some custom fit orthotics. dr. scholl's custom fit orthotic center. it recommends the custom fit orthotic that's best for your feet. and footcare scientists are behind it. you'll get immediate comfort... ... and, you could save a couple hundred bucks. for locations sesclls.m back to "hardball." time for "the sideshow." first fun with steve colbert. last night after "hardball" i went over to "the colbert report" and gave steve a little bit of history. since it was the 50th anniversary to the day of president kennedy's inaugural address, i gave steve a hint of where kennedy came up with the famous words. they have may have come from, i believe, something kennedy heard in high school. the question of the speech. i've been work on this book on kennedy. >> i was not aware. >> i've been working very hard. everyone said ted sorenson wrote

it -- this was from his headmaster in the school. he used to say this to the kids every year. here we go. the youth who loves his alma mater will always ask not what your alma mater can do for me, but what you can do for your alma mater. >> so kennedy's headmaster -- >> said this. >> wrote that line? >> yes. >> so there's nothing left? that's it. >> but he remembered it. he remembered it. >> can i see that? >> you can have it. >> i can have it? >> yes. >> what is this worth? >> it's a xerox. nothing. but it's for the book. is what a hoot. up next, dickey and ducky. last night, nbc's brian williams interviewed george herbert walker bush and his foreign

policy team which included dick cheney and bakker. what a nugget, they're going hunting. >> i guess you are off to go hunting. >> yes. >> and i'm told your heart pump can take a jokes. do you have any reservations when you get a hunting reservation from the vice president? >> i extend the the invitation from him, but i have good body armor. >> you'll do very well. >> chuckle worthy from the republican hunting set. now for tonight's big number. these two weeks sarah palin has facest the toughest criticism of her political career and it shows. last year when the betting service in ireland, her chance of winning the republican nomination peaked, 29%. where is it now? about half that, 14%, cut in half. sarah palin's odds for the republican gold dwindle to 1:7, 14%. i would say that's high. tonight's big nucmbenumber.

up next president obama enjoying a rebound in the polls. how wired should the republicans be worried about that? our strategists, left and right, join us next. you're watching "hardball." only on msnbc. without taking pills around the clock? try thermacare heatwraps, for all day relief without pills. i was surprised, thermacare worked all day. you feel the heat. and it relaxes and unlocks the muscle. you've got to try it. [ man ] thermacare, more effective for back pain than the maximum dose of acetaminophen, the medicine in tylenol. go to thermacare.com today for a $3 off coupon. thermacare. no pills. no pain. just relief. i was living on welfare and supporting a family of four. after i got the job at walmart, things started changing immediately. then i wrote a letter to the food stamp office. "thank you very much, i don't need your help any more." you know now, i can actually say i bought my home. i knew that the more i dedicated... the harder i worked, the more it was going to benefit my family. this my son, mario and he now works at walmart. i believe mario is following in my footsteps.

my name is noemi, and i work at walmart. ♪ tdd# 1-800-345-2550 if anything, it was a little too much. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 but the moment they had my money? nothing. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 no phone calls, no feedback, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 no "here's how your money's doing." tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i mean what about a little sign that you're still interested? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 come on, surprise me! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] a go-to person to help you get started. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 regular detailed analysis of your portfolio. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 for a whole lot of extras at no extra charge, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 talk to chuck. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 talk to chuck. diabetes testing? it's all the same. nothing changes. then try this. freestyle lite® blood glucose test strip. sure, but it's not gonna-- [beep] wow. yep, that's the patented freestyle zipwik™ design. did it just-- [both] target the blood? yeah, drew it right in. the test starts fast. you need just a third the blood of one touch.® that is different. so freestyle lite test strips make testing... easy? easy.

great. call or click-- we'll send you strips and a meter, free. free is good. freestyle lite test strips. call or click today.

>> i'm melissa rehberger. gabrielle giffords transfer to a rehabilitation transfer went without a hitch. president obama tapped ceo jeff immelt to head an advisory committee to boost american employee. and you're seeing in a live picture here, a wake for one-time vice presidential candidate sargent shriver. the california highway patrol is

taking the lead on an investigation into death threats made against california governor jerry brown saying he will be killed on valentine's day. south korean commandos stormed a freighter, rescuing 21 hostages and killing eight hijackers. and marking the 30th anniversary of their return to the u.s., a group of americans held hostage for 444 days in iran were reunited at west point. back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." how worried should republicans be that are gearing up for 2012 and thinking he was an easy president to beat? the poll numbers of the president are definitely going up. the latest nbc/"wall street journal" is up, a 15-point swing.

he was three down, now he's 12 up. let's turn to our strategists, they're close by, steve mcmahon and john feehery. first of all, feehery, are you a-feared of what's going on here? >> not really. i think that if unemployment stays up around 9%, i think this prosecute is very vulnerable. if employment comes back in clinton-like terms or reagan-like terms and we get unemployment under control, the republicans are going to have a very difficult time. but, you know, i would rather see the country heal itself and people get employed than worry about politics, frankly. >> i'm going to make this as my final comment. i think he can still lose if he's above 50 if the unemployment rate is substantially above 8. >> i think that's probably right. it will be a much different election than it was next time. it will be gutting out electoral vote by electoral vote, but one thing that's pretty consistent is that the independence voters which abandoned democrats in

2010 after supporting democrats by a margin of 16 points in 2008 and 2006 when democrats did so well, are coming back to that president. you can see both in his improved favorable ratings and job approval ratings, but in trial heats against the republican, this president is a lot stronger now than he was even three or four weeks ago. >> let's talk about what the president is up to. let's listen to him talking to about jeff immelt. he's up at one of the original ge plans. let's listen. >> it's a great thing that the economy is growing, but it's not growing fast enough yet to make up for the damage that was done by the recession. the past two years were about pulling our economy back from the brink. the next two years, our job now is putting our economy into overdrive. our job is to do everything we

can to ensure that businesses can take root and folks can find good jobs and america is leading the global competition that will determine our success in the 21st century. >> you know, i'm looking at the steps, john, this probably drives people in the far left crazy, i think people who are politically attuned know why he's doing it. ever since the campaign he was bashed in, he's been making moves toward the center, towards bush tax cuts for the wealthy people, he approved. he brought in bill daly, certainly a centrist from chicago to be his top aide, a lot of steps to move to the center. he's also going to speak to the u.s. chamber of commerce, and tom donohue bashed his brains in during the campaign. here he is with jeff immelt, from ge, naming him chairman of the job-creating operation. >> if the president is going to govern as a republican, it will be hard for the republicans to beat him. now, if on the other hand, that might inspire a primary

challenge to him, which will weaken him. >> did you hear the chuckle? did you hear the chuckle right then from steve? you know you're talking b.s. here, don't you? do you think he'll get a primary challenge because he met with jeff immelt? >> no, i don't think so, i said if he governs as a republican. if he cuts spending, if he issues regulations where he wants to get rid of regulations, if he does the things he says he wants to do, i think he could win, but the fact of the matter is he's probably not going to govern that way. he's going to try this balancing act between the left and right and i think the republicans are going to have a very consistent message. we've got to cut spending and grow the economy. i think that's where they're going to stick to and that's where it will be successful for them. >> can you win with a whack job, john? >> no. we can't win with a whack job. >> i know. you've got to run a regular person. go ahead, steve. i just wanted to clear the air for a minute. >> what were they doing when

they were voting on repealing health care, which they know is going nowhere. they weren't working on creating jobs, work they were working on reducing a health care bill. john, i don't think we have anything to worry about with respect to the president governing like a republican, but the republicans have to worry about as the president comes to the middle to govern, as he seeks common ground and compromise, which is what he did during that lame duck session, and as the far right takes over the republican party and runs off to the right and tries to do the kinds of things they're doing every single day, they're not going to help themselves and not do anything except make sure that barack obama gets re-elected. he's not the far right, but he has a caucus running off to the right. >> they voted to repeal a terrible health care bill because it kills the economy. >> it doesn't kill the economy, john. it gives people health insurance. >> i think portions will be repealed, and i do think the individual mandate will be thrown out in the supreme court. so i think this is going to collapse. >> let me ask you about something coming up next week. we'll clear the air on this later.

it seems to me that the president -- the president is up to something next week. he's getting the report that the president is going to talk about something like sputnik. i grew up when we all got scared to death because we thought the russians were beating us in every way, technologically in terms of engineering and science. their gdp was going to pass us eventually because of their abouts in those areas. do you think if the president has a message like that, will the republicans go along? something about r&d, science, education and really gets this country in first gear in terms of beating the chinese, will the republicans approve the spending? >> that's the question i was going to so he could say let's go to the moon, but kennedy had the money to do it. president obama has no money. they're broke. >> which surplus are you talking about? i don't know about any

surpluses. >> there was a balanced budget. >> there weren't any surpluses under eisenhower. but go on. truman had the last -- i happen to know the history. i have the advantage on you, john. truman had surpluses. eisenhower didn't. >> look at his last budget, chris. >> but the question that you raise -- the question that you raise -- >> you mean after he's out of office? go ahead, these ludicrous. go ahead. >> the scenario that you posit, chris is a good one. this president looks to be becoming the guy that people voted for in 208. he's governing from the center, seeking common ground. he's finding areas that he can work with the republicans and get things done. and if he goes out there and lays out an agenda that is positive,s is pir rati-- aspira and forward looking, like he did

so well in 2008, and talking about america's place in the world and how together we're stronger if we work together, and do these things together then i think the country will rally. the republicans may not. if they don't, they'll do so at their peril. >> i hate to be debby downer, but we're going broke. >> i want to thank steve mcmahon and debby downer for joining us tonight. thank you. but you're wrong. the biggest force in politics remains the obama/clinton alliance, and there's a new book on clinton, that's all clinton needs, tells us some things we didn't know about former president clinton and whether hillary is really thinking about running for president in 2016. that's the all-important fun question for politics here at "hardball." only on msnbc. that i want to do completely on my own -- i like to discuss my ideas with someone. that's what i like about fidelity. they talked with me one on one, so we could come up with a plan that's right for me, and they worked with me to help me stay on track -- or sometimes, help me get on an even better one. woman: there you go, brian. thanks, guys.

man: see ya. fidelity investments. turn here. congressman gabby giffords is ready to begin rehabilitation in the hospital in houston. she left the hospital today as crowds lined the streets.

she smiled as she heard the applause of those people watching. she was flown to houston along with her husband, her holm and her doctors. the transfer went flawlessly, doctors say the congresswoman is ready to begin rehabilitation right now. "hardball" returns after this. ♪my country, tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, of thee i sing; ohhhhh, land where my fathers died, land of the pilgrims' pride, from every mountainside, let freedom ring! ♪ i love my grandma. i love you grandma. grandma just makes me happy. ♪ to know, know, know you grandma is the bestest. the total package.

grandpa's cooooooooool. way cool. ♪ grandpa spoils me rotten. ♪ to know, know, know you ♪ is to love... some people call us frick and frack. we do finger painting. this is how grandpa and i roll. ♪ and i do [ pins fall ] grandma's my best friend. my best friend ever. my best friend ever. ♪ [ laughing ] [ boy laughs ] ♪ to know, know, know you after this we're gonna get ice cream. can we go get some ice cream? yeah. ♪ and i do ♪ and i do ♪ and i do

welcome back to "hardball." more than a decade after he's left the white house, president clinton remains one of the most fascinating people in our country, if not the most fascinating politician. he's the subject of my documentary "president of the world" which airs february 21. here's a clip. there's never been anyone like this before. a former president of a country, now a global phenom. >> i love my life now. it's just fun. >> bill, we love you! >> he's taken whatever capital

he has as an ex-president, and really put it towards trying to do real good in the world. >> ten years after leaving the white house, bill clinton is a new kind of world heed leader. . >> i think he's the master of the trade. he's the single most competent politician i've ever met. >> a statesman's role like any other. planetary in scale. >> i want to keep very active in the thinks i cared about as president where i can still have an influence. >> it's coming up presidents day. it's called "president of the world." it's one of the most exciting things i've word on. you will love it. mike hall's new book is "a complicated man" that's a great title. the life of bill clinton as told by those who know him. okay. thank you very much, michael. what makes him any more complicated than you, me or any other guy or woman i know. >> there's so many ways to look at him, and so many have validity. i interviewed people for a solid

year. when i talk to people, find myself swayed by what people think, whether they're pro or con. one would say impeachment for lying about sex, what a travesty, how does that rise to the levels of high crimes and misdemeanors as set forth in the constitution? i would say, well, okay, that makes sense. the next day someone would say lying under oath must not be condoned, especially by a president of the united states, and i think, you've got a point there. >> maybe he should have avoided testifying in this kind of case. >> good point. >> let me go to the heart of this question. all we care about on "hardball," all i care about is what's coming. what's your bet after a year of interviewing bill clinton's people, around him who know him and got a look at him, does he want his wife, hillary rodham clinton, the secretary of state, to be the next president? >> i believe he does. you know, people try to analyze the clinton marriage, and it's very hard for the rest of us to

understand it, but i do believe everything everything a strong love bond there. i think both of them believe the other is the strongest, funniest, when 2016 is approaching, he will be whispering saying the world and the country needs you. you have got to run. >> i agree and i wonder how you know that best. when did you get the best look at the emotional and personal tie? where did you get that from? >> i talked to people from arkansas what who have seen them together. i think the real secret of the marriage is hard to get through. people who know them won't talk about their marriage. it is clear they do have this bond. they have stuck with it through everything. you remember in 1992, bill clinton was with the 60 minutes

interview and clinton got angry saying it's not an understanding and an arrangement. it's a marriage. we love each other. i believe they love each other. >> of course. i don't doubt it at all. what do you figure about the disconnect? most people that get married are complements to each other. most of us are like husband does one thing well and the wife does other thing well. maybe they are creative in different ways, but it complements each other. is it possible that he is the politician and hillary never measures up to his talent for getting along with everybody as he seems teeb able to do. >> she is smart and ambitious and has ideas. she is not able to project the warmth, at least not on television that bill clinton does. you look at the campaign and she learned an important lesson. you can see it in 1992. the media were talking about jennifer flowers and the draft.

bill clinton would say they, the media, want to make it about me. it's not about me. it's about you and your future and your children. in 2 thousa008, after the near new hampshire, she had an emotional moment where she started making it about the voters and the needs and aspirations of the working class people. she was much more effective. >> i have come to that understanding about all politicians. reagan at his best was talking about america and people's hearts would sore. when barack obama talked about his background, it works. when they talk about themselves, you don't want to hear it. it's not interesting. it's more fascinating to talk about our country. that said, i am fascinated with the clintons. are they happy with the arrangement they made with president obama? this alliance between the two of

them and the president? >> from all accounts, hillary got over the defeat in 2008 much more quickly than bill. he carried resentment much longer. i think they realized now that if she is to have a chance in 2016, they have to be good democrats and they are doing that. bill clinton came to the white house to endorse the tax compromise and campaigned all over the country for democrats. hillary has been a good soldier at the state department. she has been loyal. they are well-positioned for 2016 if she decides to run >> fair enough. everybody should read a complicated man, the life of bill clinton as told by those who know him. we will have the big documentary, president of the world. you have to watch. it airs on msnbc on february 21st, president's day at 10:00. when we return, i will finish with the magic number for president obama. the jobless number he needs to

get down to. 8. if he gets to that, he gets to that he gets reelected # blap

>> let me finish with one number. 8. the number that president obama's chief adviser posted to the world. the jobless rate she said we would reach as a result of obama's economic program. this is the nature of american politics and economics between now and the end of next summer f. we drop from 9.4 to 8%,

president obama can consider himself in good shape for reelection. 8%. post this figure as the national unemployment rate and the president will be in good shape politically. don't and there will be a good prospect a republican candidate will prevail. there is a lot of talk about the president himself and the way in which he has been connecting. all that said, we need to keep our eye on the ball. elections are driven by economics and they are still bad in that part of the country that will decide the next election. here's the story. the candidate will start the election with the deep south in the bag. a great expansion of the plain states and much of the mountain west in the bag. obama will get the coasts. the turf to be fought over are ohio, minnesota, wisconsin, michigan, indiana and pennsylvania. if these states have not come back economically by next summer, i can see obama losing

even if people like him. it's about conditions. the people feel like saying keep it up, you are doing a great job, can't complain. if not, forget everything else. what will matter next election morning and all day into the evening is whether people want to give a thumbs up on the economy. fair or not, this will be the score card. this explains everything the president has done since he saw what was coming. the deal in tax cuts and the appointment of bill daley. the decision to address the chamber of commerce and today the head for private sector jobs. the government can't create more jobs. the republicans are not going to approve a second stimulus bill. taxes are about where they are going to be. the one grand prospect is for tobs get the higher competence to expand in preparation for higher sales. the president needs to get the jobless down below 8% and if