"morning joe." now time for "the daily rundown". big disappointment on the job front. employment stalled, unemployment rises to 9.2%, stock futures dropping big-time on the news. the president will address the numbers later this morning. no deal yet, but president obama and congressional leaders will work all weekend and instead of barbs we're hearing words like "constructive" and "productive." optimism abounds as a deal is truly in the works. both sides seem prepared for seergs concessions. what do these jobs numbers mean and will they hold up a deal as it gets rid of a lot of other issues at this point? and with outside groups set to pour millions into the 2012 race, what's an incumbent pro president to do? is fighting fire with fire the answer? it's friday, june 8, 2012.

also this morning, waiting the final shuttle launch. will weather clear in time? and we've honored a departed friend you've invited into your living rooms for decades. this jobs report, we thought the big news today would be the debt talks, but a stunning jobs report, gain of just 18,000 jobs. we'll get to that. we'll have the best that we can find. mark zandi to explain what happened and why all these analysts overnight got it so wrong. let's get to my first read of the morning, the debt talks. negotiations over the debt ceiling are in a critical 72-hour period. in order to avoid a scenario from april where a government shutdown was averted only in the final hours, the president and lawmakers are hoping to agree on a big deal and in these next two days are about both parties doing temperature taking and vote counting. yesterday the president put two plans on the table. this $4 trillion grand bargain he is now pushing for, which would include comprehensive tax reform and some serious changes to entitlement programs like

medicare and medicaid and maybe even social security, and then the $2.5 trillion plan, which is sort of the backup plan with the biden guys were talking about. the president announced congressional leaders will reconvene at the white house sunday. >> at that point, the parties will at least know where each other's bottom lines are and will hopefully be in a position to then start engaging in the hard bargaining that's necessary to get a deal done. i want to emphasize that nothing is agreed to until everything's agreed to, and the parties are still far apart on a wide range of issues. >> republicans were strikingly silent after the meeting, a positive sign for those looking to see if a big deal can happen. other than the president, the most aggressive advocate of the $4 trillion plan is house speaker john boehner. in fact, boehner pitched the big deal to senate republicans

yesterday. boehner, not mcconnell. and it was behind closed doors. roy blunt who served in the house of leadership under boehner for three years, he handicapped the deal. he's now a senator from misso i missouri. >> i have probably been in at least hundreds of meetings -- i don't know if i'd get to thousands -- with speaker boehner before he was speaker. he is always an optimistic man and he was optimistic today. there's no deal yet. nobody knows what the deal is. we'll see how genuine everybody is in trying to get there. but i think if they do get there they'll get there pretty quickly or they won't get there. >> look, all of this is about everybody dealing with their own bases. we know the president's meeting with nancy pelosi today at the bhiet house and we know speaker boehner is talking to not just senate republicans but republicans in his own conference. now, boehner is up against some tough math. there are 240 republicans in the house. boehner lost 59 of them on the continuing resolution, the last

bargain if you will, i want very grand, on this year's budge e. 63 republicans are members of the tea party caucus alone. right now, according to some folks on the hill that i've talked to, there are about 50 hard nos on the debt limit. think people like michele bachmann. >> we can't keep spending money that we don't have. that's why i fought against the wasteful bailout, against the stimulus. i will not vote to increase the debt ceiling. >> there are potentially another 25 soft nos, which would get them up to about 75 nos. and that brings the number of democrats needed closer to 50. now, boehner, for his own politics in his conference, he would like to keep his losses under 75 inside his own party. now, one of the more possess mess tick parts of yesterday's meeting was the fact that eric cantor, the number two to boehner, was more skeptical about this idea that the big deal, the grand bargain, which would include major tax reform

and basically some tax increase -- increased tax reven reven revenues, getting rid of loopholes, kantor was expressing skepticism about getting it through the house, not necessarily skeptical in trying to do a big plan but on the numbers himselves. he's of course bun one of the g counting votes. the white house is trying to soothe democrats frantically pushing back that reports on social security are on the debt ceiling table. yesterday he had a hard time not tripping all over that message. watch. >> the president specifically said it should not be included and now you guys are acknowledging it's included. >> the president has said since january that he is willing and eager to have discussions about social security -- >> but not -- but he always -- he was specific to say not connected to this stuff. >> he has always said that it is not connected to the short and medium-term deficit problems we face as a nation. it doesn't mean he's not willing

to talk about as a separate matter. the president's position has not changed at all since january. he has also said that anybody that wants to -- [ inaudible ] >> i'm not going to characterize what would be in or out of a deal. >> in the next hour, the president meets with house democratic leader nancy pelosi in the oval osts, who is not exactly enthusiastic about the developing plan. both party lose a weapon if this deal goes through, republicans lose the threat of tax hikes and ballooning deficit and spending and democrats lose the campaign weapon of medicare. when asked recently how house democrats win bokback the house, pelosi had a three-word mantra, medicare medicare medicare. new numbers we've crunched from our poll archives show why. in our merged data for polls all of our polls conducted in the first half of this year, about 4800 total interviews, republicans we have found are losing ground among seniors. last year in our polling democrats had just a two-point

edge in party identification. among voters 65 and older, meaning 42% of seniors call themselves democrats and 40% identified themselves as republicans. this year that advantage for democrats has jumped nine points, 44% of seniors now call themselves democrats, only 35% of them call themselves republicans. and something similar is happening in the midwest. one of the oerld regiolder regi. democrats have an 11-point advantage beating republicans 41-31. back in 2010 that was just a few points. that is where control of the house will happen. finally, the "new york times" goes there. tim pawlenty is waking up to this headline. will the republican races first in be the first out? ouch. look, it's what everybody has been chattering about about paw lenty, disappointing fund raising numbers, debate

performance, the fact michele bachmann is stealing all his thunder. but to put it in their terms even will make fund raising that much harder. paw lenty comes through a new video this morning. in the hawkeye state this morning, the news is that as paw lenty told the des moines register his poll numbers in the state are lagging because this week is the first time i've campaigned in earnest in iowa. okay. meanwhile, acting the front-runn front-runner, mitt romney met with british prime minister yesterday at 10 downing street during his fund raising trip to the uk. romney tweeted this picture of the two together. we'll see how that plays with some republicans that were concerned when mitt romney talked about social security protection in new hampshire. let's go to this jobs number. a surprisingly bad june jobs report, raising questions about whether the recovery has basically ground to a halt. 9.2% unemployment, hiring slowed to a trickle.

just 18,000 jobs were added. some analysts had expected four or five times that many. more than 14 million people are out of work right now. the president will discuss all of this at 10:30. in the meantime, i'm joined by mark zandi, chief economist with moody's analytics. mark, what happened? >> it was stunning. youmentioned some of the statistics, but there was absolutely nothing redeeming in the report. it was a very, very bad month. no other way to characterize it. you know, the job market is still very difficult. >> i guess one thing that leaves my head scratching is, you know, last night every analyst using the adp payroll data, private payroll data, suddenly was talking about, boy there's going to be a surprise in construction jobs, manufacturing jobs, surprises all over the place. all those surprises were going to be pleasant ones. >> yeah. well, if you look at all of the other data economists use to gauge today's numbers, they all

point to a much better number. you mentioned adp, but there's a lot of others, initial claims for unemployment insurance, surveys of manufacturers and n nonmanufacturers that showed a lot more strength. that's a reason for some optimism and hope that in the next couple, three months we will see better jobs numbers. because all of the other data suggests this was the outlier, that the job market isn't as weak as this data suggest. nonetheless, these are the data. >> look, the private numbers were disappointing but i believe we're running on six, seven, maybe eight months in a row where government jobs have actually decreased. you know, we hear all this rhetoric against the government, but there has been in the state and local level a loss of these government jobs. is that something that you think washington needs to stop right now because it's hurting the recovery? >> i don't think they can. i think the dye is cast here. in fact, since state and local government peaked, almost three years ago, we've lost 600,000,

by my rough calculation, state and local government jobs. now, the good news there i think is that we're seeing the worst of it. the states are working really hard to get their budgets balanced, and as they go into their current fiscal year, fiscal 2012 which just started. so i'm expecting that as we make our way into next year that we'll see more job losses but they'll be much smaller. and i about the end of 2012 the job losses will be over because state budget situations are improving, tax revenues are rising. so this is the worst of it i think right here. >> very quickly, i know there's a lot of predictions now that july is going to be a big number, part of it is simply summer hiring. but how big of a number does it need to be to sort of make you feel better that, okay, may and june were gas-driven blips and things are really on the upswing again? >> we need to see job growth in july between 100,000 and 150,000, then if we get that and all the other data hang

together, then i think we will start to see a reacceleration in economic growth as i anticipate and many other economists anticipate. and by year's end, i think we'll be back closer to 200 k per month. obviously given today's number, that's obviously still very much a forecast. >> mark zandi, one of the best in the business, thanks for coming in this morning. >> thank you. well, my reporting tells me there's real momentum for a grand bargain on the budget. but how does this morning's job report change the dynamic? does it? up next, we're talking to one of the bigger players in the debt talks. what's really on the table? social security, medicare, taxes? chris val hollen joins me live. but first, look ahead at the president's schedule. we'll hear from him on jobs this morning. then he does a bunch of those regional tv interviews. later in the day. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc.

we do not support cuts in benefits on social security and medica medicare. any discussion of medicare or social security should be on its own table. we are not going to balance the budget on the backs of america's seniors, women and people with disabilities. >> well, nancy pelosi sounding the alarm on possible cuts to entitlements. this morning she'll get to raise her concerns and those of other house democrats when she meets one-on-one with the president. with me now, maryland democratic congressman chris van hollen, ranking member on the budget committee, very close to the leadership. congressman, let me start with what you understand that is,

quote, on the table in the $4 trillion grand bargain here. what part of social security is on the table, or is it sort of to the side? >> right. before i get to that, could i just say that the disappointing jobs numbers this morning underscore what a lot of us have been saying, which is that, even as we work to come up with a plan to reduce the deficit over the next ten years, we do nothing in the short term to harm the economy. and deep immediate cuts would do just that. so, first, do no harm, principle number one. with respect to the grand bargain, we've said all along, the president said all along, you need balance. you need to make sure you have revenue closing corporate loop 0 holes, asking folks at the high end of the income stale scale to pay more. we've seed with respect to social security, we support the idea of strengthening social security on its own track, on its own merits, just like tip o'neil and ronald reagan did many years ago. as there are --

>> when it changes, you want to make sure it's put back into social security. so you're basically saying, fine, we may tichker with cola, but what it is, it's going back into -- >> i'm not saying we're going to tinker with cola, but i am saying when you're dealing with social security, yes, it should extend the life of social security. right now social security is fully solvent until 2037. what we should not be doing is trying to balance the rest are of the budget on the backs of social security beneficiaries. what we could do is work to strengthen social security on its own track and there may be ways to dedicate more revenue to social security as part of any discussion and further strengthen the solvency of social security. >> all right. what is too much for democrats? it looks like -- we were discussing a bit of the simple math here. there's complicated math when we talk about colas and social security and then there's simple math, 218. we know there's not 218 republicans for a deal. boehner knows that. the republicans are conceding

that. the question is, what's his comfort level and how many republicans is he willing to lose and then are athere enough democrats to fill in the gap? what do you say? >> right. the key question there, chuck, is whether there's a sense of fair fnesses and balance. again, whether folks at the high end of the income scale are beginning to contribute going back to the rates we saw during the clinton administration, in a time when the economy was booming. democrats are are prepared to make hard choices. at george washington university the president put on a table a plan that did over $4 trillion in savings over a 12-year period, cuts orn the domestic discretionary but also recognizing that we have to deal with the defense side of the equation. we had a hearing in the budget committee yesterday which was somewhat promising because on a bipartisan basis people recognized there are savings to be made on the pentagon side of the equation. so tough decisions will be made. we have offered ways to strengthen medicare, for example, by giving medicare the same kind of bargaining rights

that the veterans administration has when it comes to prescription drugs, things like that. >> had when it comes to this tax deal, it seems the idea of, quote, raising revenue woo come under the guise of lowering tax rates but eliminating some deductions and potentially popular ones, maybe lowering the percentage of deductions when it comes to charitable giving, lowering the amount you can deduct on a home. is that going to be -- will you be comfortable with something like that, that while it will lower rates to appease some republicans, at the same time it's going to get rid of popular deductions? >> you have to look at any tax reform measure on its own merits. >> that's where we're headed with tax reform. rates are going to be changed and lowered, deductions eliminated, right? >> that's the overall concept put forth in the bipartisan commission report. >> right. >> and this has been reported. one of the proposals we put forward in the context of these talks was the idea that folks at

the higher income level, so over $500,000, would begin to see a phase-out of their deductions. that does generate a good amount of income over a period of time, when you couple that with plugging corporate look holes, getting rid of oil and gas subsidies, you can generate a fair amount of income. so we would say that you want to begin that process with folks at the very high income level. >> are you more optimistic for the $4 trillion deal or the $2.5 trillion deal? >> i think we all would like to see -- i should say not all. i would like to see and the president and others would like to see a $4 trillion deal. it would send a very important message that the united states is serious about getting its long-term -- >> you know that takes medicare off the table as a political weapon probably. >> well, look, we have been very clear, chuck, we are not going to accept anything remotely like the republican proposal that would gut medicare, which would

say to seniors, we're going to transfer all these additional costs to you or you're going to have your benefits whacked. no chance anywhere we're talking about anything like that. >> congressman chris van hollen involve nd all of these things. >> good to be with you, chuck. >> busy weekend. thanks very much. the budget isn't the only thing undergoing drastic cuts at the white house. we at nbc are losing an old live shot friend. in fact, we've already lost him. up next we take a moment to remember the white house elm that we've named this week chet. first, today's trivia question from the almanac of american politics. michigan voted within 1% of the national average for all the major presidential candidates in which three consecutive elections? bottom line, when is the last time they were truly a swing state? tweet me. first correct answer will get fall of friday.

time for your entrepreneur of the week. mark and jennifer bitterman were in france and had a great meal due to a special salt. they brought it back and sold it in their portland, oregon, store called the meadow. word of mouth brought in many and an expansion to new york city. for more, watch "your business" sunday mornings at 7:30 on msnbc.

okay, just for the record, i'm not saying i talk to tree all the time or hug them when no one is looking. but recent events at the white house got us thinking. back to a classic children's book where the giving tree sacrifices life and limb for another. >> reporter: nearly 30 years ago, this towering elm was planted at the white house lawn during the reaganed administration, a faithful presence in nbc live shots for a generation, the tree, who i decided this week to call chet in honor of nbc legend chet hundley, never missed a take. when brian report on the war in the ball cannes, chet was there. before david ever met the press, chet was there. when andrea told us of economic uncertainty, chet was there. and when vick was blown over by a winter squall, well, even chet couldn't do anything about that. today, though, there is sad news to report. our friend chet is mulch, a storm on sunday apparently was

too much muto handle, splitting the tree. the national park service says chet was compromised by those high winds and just like that they busted out the chainsaw. but if the giving tree taught us anything, even a stump can be useful for sitting. and with that, we give chet the daily rundown send-off. ♪ i will remember you ♪ will you remember me >> good night, chet. we'll see you later today. we'll be right back. ♪ we've not fallen memories

bottom of the hour now, a quick look at what's driving the day. president obama meets with house minority leader nancy pelosi later today. pelosi's been outspoken about

the deficit debate in not toughing benefits in social security and medicare, something that has been apparently put back on the table in the debt ceiling negotiations. by the way, the president are will make a statement about the job reports at 10:35. the opening bell has just rung on wall street as investors react to those june job numbers that only showed 18,000 new jobs created last month. quite a blow for this economy. and on capitol hill republicans are expected to weigh in on the lackluster job numbers. any minute now, as you know, they will say it has to do with the president. other stories making headlines, new york democrats have their man. state assemblyman david wep rin has been chosen to represent the part iy in the special election to fill the seat left empty by anthony weiner. and a former spokesman for english prime minister david cameron is under arrest in london in connection with the "news of the world" cell phone hacking scandal. andy coulson was editor of the

tabloid before being hired by cameron. and in texas, governor rick perry denied a stay of execution for a mexican man convicted of murder. the death by lethal injection took place last night against the wishes of the white house and the mexican government. well, it's an historic and bittersweet day at kennedy space center in florida, the 135th and final launch of the storied space shuttle program still scheduled for 11:26 this morning when the shuttle "atlantis" will begin its 12-day trip to the international space station. that is of course if mother nature cooperates. david barbury has covered 134 missions so far. he joins us now for number 135, the hardest working man at nbc, longest working man at nbc, still going today. jay, well, first of all, is this shuttle launch going to happen? today? >> reporter: well, first let me correct you. that's 134 shuttle missions but we did 31 before that.

the mercury gem ne and apollo has been 165 missions. this is number 166, all for the same great network nbc. now, are we going to do it today? right now the weather is looking a little better, if it will hold on for just a couple more hours, chuck, they'll get it off. they can't have light fling within 29 nautical miles if they xr to come back on an emergency landing. chuck, because you're the perfect person to be on, i want to make a little news. >> okay. >> reporter: two years ago, 12,000 people worked here on this program, people that have worked here for decades. today it's 6,700, and after this mission it will be 1,000. and they are tech jobs that you find hard to replace. now, the nasa administrator, charles boulden, they have decided what they want to do on this heavy lift that both houses of congress want them to do is they want to use the existing

solid rockets on board shuttle and shuttle's main engines as well as the j2 engine that took astronauts to the moon, all of them proven hardware, good stuff, man rated, the launchpads are already here, everything is here, all they have to do is start getting ready and they can fly out of earth orbit and put a lot of these people back to work by 2016. i just found out from senator bill nelson, our senior senator here, that everybody is for this proposal, including the white house, but one person. that one person is in o hadmb, office of management and budget. his name is paul shawcroft. no one knows why paul shawcroft is holding this up, but every time we have finished a program, chuck, we have always had another spacecraft to go to. no spacecraft and they're ready to go but they can't get approval from this one guy. >> well, tell me this.

what is the next plan -- we obviously continue to participate in the international space station. when is the next vehicle -- who is the vehicle? what company puts p s up the n vehicle from the united states to space after the "atlantis" today? >> reporter: chuck, there's really two competitors, boeing has a vehicle called cst-100, space-x has its dragon. it's going to be hauling up cargo. they want to convert that so they can send up astronauts on that. it's a second great space race. >> but in the private sector. >> reporter: in the private sector. could go 2015. now, nasa's big contribution besides using this over here is what we're talking about, about heavy lift. and this is what would put together money already spent, $9 billion plus is spent right over

here behind me on two launchpads, a service tower, and all they have to do is put this together and start flying. it's going to be much cheaper than what they were doing. but what i was telling you, we've always had this, nobody is against this, but paul shawcroft, a person in the omb, okay, why is he shoeldholding it up? >> you've made him famous this morning. >> reporter: that's the question for you, chuck. >> jay barbree, a historic day. we'll be checking back with you every hour until we see this "atlantis" go up. as we follow this last mission of the shuttle. jay, good to see you, sir. >> reporter: thank you. well, another 7 million bucks is being poured into political attack ads this week. this time the target moves to capitol hill, the conservative group american crossroads has already blasted president obama and just today began a campaign targeting several democrat being senators up for reelection in 2012, the war being wage d.

it's like it's october 2012 if you just watched these outside groups. >> right. as the latest jobs report showed, a lot of people may be struggling to get out of this recession, but a lot of money is being spent right now on campaigns and are going to continue to be spent on campaigns and a lot of that money is coming from outside groups who don't play by the same rules as candidates and other committees. >> reporter: outside groups can often raise unlimited funds from aanonymous donors. in 2012, they're expected to spend more than ever. they're ads are already starting to air. >> obama's $830 billion stimulus failed. >> the republicans have opposed economic reforms at every turn. >> reporter: these groups are largely unbound by the same campaign finance restrictions that regulate kand datzs and parties. they aren't new, but how much much money they're raising and spending is.

in the '92 election they spent just $19 million. by 2000 it doubled to 51 million, quadrupled to 200 million in 2004 and in the 2008 presidential race they spent a record $300 million. last year the supreme court ruled that outside groups could raise unlimited money from corporations. >> the u.s. supreme court today overturned laws on the books for nearly a century and ruled that corporations can spend freely now on political campaigns. >> reporter: in the 2010 midterms outside groups spent $305 million. one of the biggest players? american crossroads and crossroads gps, founded by bush adviser karl rove and others. they spent $70 million in 2010, helping republicans take back the house. in 2012, they pledge to spend $120 million. the koch brothers maligned by the left say they'll spend 88

million, and former romney '08 staffers have created at least three outside groups. but it's not just republicans. there are at least five democratic aligned groups poised to make a big impact. the president says he's against outside influence. >> the more we can reduce money's impact on washington, the better off we're going to be. >> reporter: but one of the left's most prominent groups, priorities usa run by former obama aide bill burton. >> reporter: these organizations go largely unchecked. the federal election commission regulates money in campaigns but it often takes them years before they catch up with groups who violate the rules. like swift boat veterans for truth. >> they betrayed us in the past. how could we be loyal to him in the past? >> reporter: the sums are often meager when fines are imposed. the third largest fec history is a 2007 fine on the now defunct

america coming together, an outside group aligned with democrats and backed by george sor soros. the fine was $775,000 a paltry sum compared to the $137 million the group raised. penalties aside, campaign finance watchdogs believe the floodgates are open and outside cash and influence are only getting bigger. >> well, chuck, obviously the $305 million that got spent, that's the most ever and that was just in a midterm. that outpaced spending in a presidential election for the first time. >> i'm a believerer that outside groups can have influence on midterms and house and senate races. i'm more skeptical they can have more influential on a presidential. act is a proof positive of that. because guess what? kerry lost. up next, our pac show just keeps going. we have a panel of washington heavy weights and an indiana guy, too. we'll talk about how the job numbers will play out on the

campaign trial, push for a grand bargain on the debt, and tim pa lenty's last stand. but first, the white house soup of the day, a good day for gumbo because that's what this show is about, a gumbo of a show.

as the president and speaker boehner make the hard sell to their parties on the $4 trillion plan, neither wants to define the goalpost. heefr's the elusive white house press secretary yesterday. >> i don't want to see if it's a few dollars short of this or a few dollars over we've missed a target because we don't have a specific dollar target. b bignesses is our target. >> bigness.

jonathan, chris and pete are here. welcome back. jonathan martin, i want to talk -- we have the job reports influence on the debt talks, we've talking about boehner. everybody is playing the vote counting games. eric cantor in front of cameras just said, this economy, what happened just now with this jobs report, is why the biden talks had to end because the discussion in those talks turned to the other side insisting we raise taxes. now, it just does not make sense for americans to suffer under higher taxes in an economy like this. eric cantor said that, not john boehner. >> right. >> can he son onto a deal that boehner signs onto for a trillion dollars in tax revenues over the next ten year snz. >> it sounds like the answer is no from that statement. how do you keep kantor on board, but more importantly how do you keep your entire conference on

board? >> you don't have to keep the entire conference. >> you don't, but -- >> there are 50 hard nos. >> i think talking to folks on the hill yesterday there are a lot more hard nos than that now. >> chuck, you're right. you don't have to keep the whole conference on board and they won't, but john boehner ultimately -- look, he's got eric cantor being, like, guys if this doesn't work out for boehner, i'm right here for speaker. he has to -- he cannot -- >> speaker or minority leader, though? >> fair point. but he cannot pass this deal with 75 republicans and the rest democrats. >> right. >> that's the line he's walking. he's in these negotiations. everybody says, why zont he just cut a deal? he can't just cut a deal because if he then goes back and says to the rank and file in the house, hey, i cut this deal and they say, no, we're not doing that, now he's even more weakened. it's a very fine line to walk. >> but i want to get pete in here. you were going to be part of the mitch daniels for president campaign had there been one. would mitch daniels walk away from a democrat saying, all

right, i'll do this big deal, i'll do some stuff on entitlements, it's a nixon to china moment, would a daniels walk away from a deal like this? >> look, the issues we face today are too big to walk away from this issue right now. but what eric cantor says is right. we can't raise taxes right now. >> but is anybody talking about raising taxes right now? >> well, today's news, today's employment rate going up, makes it more and more difficult for democrats already in a difficult spot in wanting to raise taxes, even more difficult -- you mentioned "live home in indiana, you talk to job creators there. there's so much uncertainty in the process right now and they are not going to hire until they know what's going on. and when they have democrats continually talking about raising taxes they're not going to put money down -- >> so you walk away -- you let the president politically, though, you let the president be the guy who says, i wanted a $4 trillion deal, eric cantor wanted $2.5 million. you want that? >> you have to work that out.

>> is that good for your party? >> at the end of the day, what's best for the american people and our economy is to not raise taxes when we're trying to create jobs. >> chuck, couple of things here. i think if you talk to house republicans and the rank and file, some of them who supported their speaker in the spring time when it came to the agreement that kept the government open felt like boehner oversold what the republicans had gotten there. thet don't want to get burned again. secondly, i think part of the challenge in getting a deal here is boehner will lose at least 50 probably more than that. >> 75 is the number i hear, sort of like -- but he doesn't want to lose more than that. >> he can't go over that. >> because if they do, how do they get a majority? because how many democrats are going to walk given the fact -- now, entitlements are on the table, right? >> one quick thing to add, michele bachmann, the hottest candidate in the republican field, her first ad in iowa, what's the end line? and i won't vote to raise the debt ceiling. they're not stupid. they pay attention to that. >> no matter what. >> under any circumstances. that shows you at least where

she believes the pace of the republican party is. a lot of these guys and gals who got elected in the house in 2010 they're not going to walk away. >> you're hanging in there. it's really tough when these two get together. we gave you our trivia answer. we've got to give it to you. had when was the last time that basically michigan was a relevant swing state within 1% of the national average? for three consecutive elections? it was 1984, 1988, and 1992 when michigan was truly a swing state. is it going to be a swing state again? maybe if mitt romney is the nominee. we'll see. multiple news outlets predicting pawlenty is getting out at any moment if he doesn't go well on the straw poll. he went gaga, lady gaga, professing his love for the pop star while calling her, quote, unusual. you're watching "the daily rundown" on msnbc.

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let's bring back our panel.

jonathan martin, chris cillizza, and pete seat. all right. pete, i'm going to ask you first. bays don't know if you'll get a word in otherwise. >> i appreciate that. >> "the new york times" today writes a prebituary on the candidacy of tim pawlenty essentially saying it's straw poll or bust for him. you're in a campaign situation and that story hits. it's in the "new york times." yes, republicans will all publicly say oh, "the new york times" always hates republicans. but come on, that's tough on fund-raising. >> you remember ricky bobby's dad in "talladega nights" said if you're not first you're last. and they've been fighting that storyline, that narrative for months. >> pawlenty. >> yeah. it got away from him. and it became engrained within the political conversation that he had to win ames and the iowa caucus or he was out. and so now they're fighting against that narrative and trying to lower expectations. >> chris, but one of his excuses today, and i was stunned, tim pawlenty says he hasn't been campaigning in iowa.

>> it's first time i've been earnestly campaigning. >> what does that mean? look, people -- voters are smart. here's a guy -- >> he -- >> it's like saying well, i haven't been raising money all that long so, the 4.2 million i've -- you've been priming the pump to run for president for years. i mean, yes, i think to pete's point, whatever happened, expectations got a little out of control, and i hate to point to a single moment, but go back and look at that new hampshire debate. going into that debate, the storyline was -- >> pawlenty v. romney. >> pawlenty is the romney alternative. >> right. >> he backs down from attacking romney. and then things kind of cascade from there. and his aides have said, frankly, on the record they've said look, after that debate, our fund-raising took a big hit. remember, it was the last two weeks of the -- >> was it a kick in the teeth when they found out michele bachmann doubled fund-raising or something like that? >> she doubles him in ames. >> that's the kick in the teeth. well, that's a kick somewhere

else. >> if you were tim pawlenty, to sort of speak up here for governor pawlenty, yeah, you've had a tough spell here. you didn't have a great debate. tough financial report. expectations are raised for ames. but this race is so wide open and fluid. >> you still believe romney's a weak front-runner. >> i think he looks better now than perhaps months ago but i think he's still a fragile front-runner. chuck, this is not 2000. because george w. bush was so formidable. lamar alexander had to drop out after ames. if you're tim pawlenty, why drop out? because just stay in -- if you can pay the bills -- >> just hang on. >> the john kerry scenario in '04 and the john mccain scenario in '08 proves if you hang in there things can happen. >> i've got to go to a shameless plug. pete, i'll let you go first. >> indiana republican party out with a new website, demdictionary.com. exposes some of these rhetorical phrases democrats like to use to confuse voters. >> chris cillizza. >> i am in search of the best state-based political blogs in every state -- >> i want them twitter --

twitter handles. >> washingtonpost.com/thefix, post all of them and i will put twitter handles. >> my colleague alex burns, haberman new blog on politico.com. >> it is a good one. but i can tell you the one guy i'm reading all weeks, david rogers, baby. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown." have a great weekend. it's a working weekend for a lot of peopling watching. we'll see you right here on monday to see what happens. coming up next on msnbc, "jansing & co." then at 1:00 don't miss "andrea mitchell reports." good night, chet. look k at your weekend forecast, i'm meteorologist bill care ronz. on saturday nice weather moves in. but showers plentiful from florida to south georgia.

thunderstorms in minneapolis. by sunday the troublesome weather's going to be here in the middle of the central plains. minneapolis and nebraska could see a chance of some strong storms. toward mountains of sand. toward new sights and sensations. toward the true bounty of nature so let's set our compass for traverse city and find ourselves. in the magic, and the moments of pure michigan. your trip begins at michigan.org. like it or not, it's a part of life. mayhem doesn't announce itself. it doesn't call ahead. mayhem doesn't care if you're on vacation or just remodeled your kitchen or just said "i do." and though mayhem may be a part of life, with an allstate agent, you don't have to live through it alone. are you in good hands?

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i'm richard lui in for chris jansing. this morning the top story we got the june jobs report p it is the worst in nine months. only 18,000 jobs were created last month, about 100,000 below expectations and even less than the measly 25,000 jobs added back in may.