>> see you back here on monday at 30 rock. right now the daily rundown with chuck todd. breaking this morning, the american born leader of al qaeda in yemen is dead. u.s. officials confirm that a u.s. drone killed anwar al awlaki in an air strike today. a major blow to the al qaeda affiliate that's been called the greatest operational threat currently to the united states. in politics time is running out for chris christie to make the final call. ballot deadlines are losing. is he born to run? we have new reporting this morning. and, sure, there's florida and ohio. but could germany really hold the keys to president obama's chances for re-election? we'll explain. good morning from washington. it's friday, september 30th, into the third quarter of 2011. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd.

let's get right to my first reads of the morning. we're going to begin with the news out of yemen. anwar al awlaki, an american born, self-described cleric and one of the world's most wanted terrorists has been killed in yemen, his death a damaging blow to al qaeda in the arabian peninsula and a major victory for the united states and the intelligence community in particular. in some respect it's as significant as the killing of osama bin laden last may. u.s. officials confirmed that al awlaki was killed by an american, unmanned drone in the central province of yemen earlier today. in recent months u.s. national security and intelligence officials have called al qaeda and yemen the single greatest threat to the united states. chief white house counterterrorism adviser john brennan said as much. >> it was al qaeda in the arabian peninsula that attempted to bring down that airliner over detroit and which put explosives on cargo planes bound for the united states. it is al qaeda's adherence,

individuals, sometimes with little or no direct physical contact with al qaeda, who have seccumbed to its hateful ideology and who have engaged in or facilitated terrorist activities here in the united states. >> again, that was john brennan. that was in june of this year describing the threat in yemen. now, this charismatic cleric is also thought to be the inspiration behind the u.s. army major who went on that shooting spree at fort hood two years ago that killed 13 american soldiers and wounded 32 others. with the u.s. government engaged in trying to get the yemeni president to step down from power there were questions about whether the government would continue to be cooperative counterterrorism partner. with this news some of the questions have been answered and what i've been told this morning is the yemeni government always saw al awlaki as an internal threat to their own stability, and so while they were -- there were certainly civil unrest with

these protests and trying to get salahi to leave power and late democracy flourish there, there was a united front in yemen that al awlaki was a danger to their own internal stability. by the way, u.s. officials are putting out lots of new information this morning. obviously they have a lot of intelligence they had been gathering on al awlaki and one tid bit that they are sharing far and wide this morning is the fact that he wasn't the most pious individual and that he has been dating a croatian stripper. we will have more about al awlaki and this operation and what u.s. intelligence have learned in a few moments. turning to the 2012 presidential race, new jersey governor headlined a campaign rally in baton rouge last night for louisiana governor bobby jindal. speculation about chris christie's plans are still at a fever pitch. he joked about it with the crowd. >> bobby mentions to me when i get off the plane, i've had a slow week. i've been very low key. haven't seen me around at all. polls don't vote. fund raising doesn't put one

vote on the tally board on election night. but i'm going to be watching from new jersey now. i expect a huge win for bobby jindal on election night. and if i don't get it, if i don't get it, you don't want me coming back here with a little jersey attitude on me. >> so if he's watching from new jersey does that mean he's staying in new jersey or saying his headquarters will be in new jersey? we'll actually talk to one of the reporters that's been tracking this as closely as anyone in a few minutes with christie. the bottom line though, this is a decision that has to because of ballot deadlines come probably in less than ten days. finally, speaking of deadlines in the presidential race we do expect to get word today on florida's final decision on a primary date, january 31st as they hinted. could they move it to february 14th? then, of course, the third quarter fund raising period ends

at midnight and when it comes to money, everybody is downplaying expectations. looks like everybody is going to raise less than they did in the first quarter from president obama to mitt romney. everybody on down. the interesting number to watch, though, is the first new number of the period, which has to do with rick perry. they seem to be accepting the fact that they will raise more than 10 million. the question is how close to 15 million do they get? do they get over that? an important barrier and important marker to find out what kind of researchers will they have to right the ship that they're trying to right? all right. back to the big story of the morning. the death of that american al qaeda cleric anwar al awlaki. nbc's jim miklaszewski is live at the pentagon. one of the more complicated features of targeting him is that he is a united states citizen. >> absolutely. the obama administration took the unprecedented step of putting anwar al awlaki on the cia's and u.s. military's kill or capture list.

the first american to be put on such a list and targeted for what some would call an execution, what others would call probably a response in this act, in this conduct of the war, particularly against al qaeda. and u.s. officials are declaring this today almost as significant as the killing of osama bin laden because unlike bin laden who was more inspirational in the last many years, and he had all these ideas to attack u.s. targets but had no ability to do that, anwar al awlaki could get it done as we heard in his attempt from john brennan on the underwear bomber, christmas day bomber, the packing ink cartridges with explosives, and the like. but what made -- what made awlaki more insidious a threat to many in the u.s. intelligence community was that he was an american and had the ability to connect and, in fact, what alarmed many people in the intelligence community recently

is that he launched an online recruiting campaign. >> right. >> to get foot soldiers here in the u.s. to carry out attacks at least in the name of al qaeda in yemen. >> and, mick, there was a brazenness to him that always seemed to almost get under the skin of intelligence officials and in fact i think that may inspire why they're leaking out word this morning, you know, this was no cleric. this is a guy who was dating a croatian stripper. obviously they've been tracking him in a way that they hadn't been tracking others. but that brazenness also made him a target. it made it easier to find him. did it not? >> well, absolutely. u.s. intelligence officials over the past several months have said that many in the al qaeda and yemen operation have become somewhat reckless. not only out of bravado or some sense of invulnerability but because also yemeni forces had stepped up their operations against al qaeda forces there in yemen. we have to understand that not

all al qaeda are alike even in yemen. some were just interested in taking over territory in yemen while it was clearly according to u.s. intelligence officials, clearly awlaki's number one goal and primary concern to attack americans. kill americans here in the united states. >> and one other point of fact here, mick, having to do with the fact that he was a united states citizen is that i had one administration official say that the broad powers that congress gave way back in 2001 and 2002 on the war on terror made it so that he was seen as a part of the battle field. he was involved in the war and that's what made this legal. >> absolutely. and quite frankly, just quite by accident, i ended up talking to a top u.s. administration legal official and i asked, hey, any legal implications to this? he laughed. >> jim miklaszewski with some tremendous reporting this morning out of the pentagon.

mick, thanks very much. >> okay. take care. well, the chris christie waiting game goes on in the world of presidential politics. while the governor won't commit to a run, conservatives won't give up hope that he's the candidate they've been waiting for. >> in the end, what people want in tough times more than anything else is for their leaders to lead and to lead by telling you the truth. the truth is we got a lot of challenges in america we have to face. >> robert katz is a political reporter for "national review" and has had all sorts of scoopage when it comes to all things dealing with chris christie, new jersey republicans, tom cain senior and tom cain jr. you spoke with christie's father over the last 48 hours. what have you learned today? >> i learned chris christie came home to trenton last night and friday, saturday, and sunday is when the decision is going to be made. his family supports it. his father supports it. his brother todd supports it. his wife mary pat most importantly supports the idea. now it just comes down to donors. from what i've heard in trenton over the past few days the money

is there. it all comes down to whether chris christie can pull the trigger. >> so it's him, not anybody else around him. that is sort of the point that i think your reporting has been trying to make? >> one thing i've learned, chuck, is that chris christie is his own political adviser. he's a political operative and thinker in his own right. this is not a creation of consultants. from when he was running for state assembly in 1995 he was a freeholder in morris county. this is a man who makes his own political decisions. he's been traveling with senior advisers. this comes down to chris christie and how he thinks he can get swayed into the election. this week every single close person to christie has changed his mind. his reception in louisiana, california, missouri has had a big impact. >> you know, robert, he's been through this before on a smaller scale in 2005 and late 2004 there was a concerted effort among new jersey republicans to get chris christie to run for governor at the time when john corzine was a sitting senator running for governor and he got

right to the brink and took a pass. is that in the back of his mind? >> i think so. he has lost local elections before. he's come to the brink before in that gubernatorial race. i think chris christie is now 50/50. a week ago he was 90/10 leaning against it. now from people close to chris christie it's 50/50. nothing really closer to that. he is open to the idea but you're right. this is a tentative politician. he does not like to take risks in a lot of ways. he does like to fight but not someone who is going to make a rash decision. >> robert costa with "national review" thanks for coming on and bringing us the latest on that. >> thanks, chuck. we'll have much more on the death of anwar al awlaki still ahead, including the political stakes for president obama and will talk with a romney senior campaign political adviser who was a one-time consultant for, guess who? chris christie. first a look ahead at the president's schedule. you're watching the daily rundown on msnbc. we'll hear from him at 11:00. perhaps he talks about the al

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well the republican race is a bit frozen as all eyes are on chris christie including eyes from inside the romney and perry campaigns. let's bring in governor christie's one time media consultant now mitt romney's campaign strategist. >> hi, chuck. >> good to see you. when we booked you in all fairness it wasn't because of your past history of chris christie but, you know, tell me this. we heard from governor romney yesterday. hey, it would be fun if more people once again and he loves governor christie. that's great. yesterday a member of your campaign came on and said that's fine but it still means mitt

romney will be the only candidate with private sector experience in the top tier. and herman cain. well, he didn't make that remark but let me ask you about chris christie. is he ready to be president? >> listen, i think chris christie is a close friend, a great guy, great governor. and he's going to make a decision when he makes a decision. that's really going to be up to him. >> you've been in the room when he has to deal with decisions like this. >> yeah. >> so is that reporting -- is that the type of person he is? he really listens to consultants but doesn't take their advice? >> of all the reporting i've heard speculating on whether governor christie was going to run that was probably the most accurate statement. he takes -- he listens to everyone around him. he takes his own advice. but at the end of the day he really takes his own advice and counsel and makes a decision on his own. i've seen him do that. >> how cautious is he? that is sort of, you know, he's

got a sort of brash personality but there is a history of caution when it comes to his political ambitions. >> listen, i think that he's -- he's very, very smart. he is going to make a decision that he believes is best for him and i think that whatever that decision is, he's going to think about it hard and it's going to be the right decision for him. >> how much of this is freezing the race right now when it comes to you you guys had some momentum. it is clear you did with perry on the ropes. you guys are certainly beating him up plenty. there is a new video out this morning. as soon as we get it online we'll show a little bit of it. but the christie stuff has sort of stalled any donor momentum. is that fair to say? >> i don't know, chuck. i think this race has been so interesting in that there's been so many sort of fits and starts and so many people kind of getting in and kind of twists and turns and our strategy has been very consistent. you know, we're going to just plow ahead, go campaign, have governor romney go out there, talk about his record on jobs

and the economy, talk about how barack obama has failed the american people particularly on the issues of jobs and economy, talk about how governor romney is the most qualified person to deal with this issue, virtue of his experience, 25 years as a conservative businessman. that we're just going to keep plowing forward. and, you know, at some point people decide to -- >> there as report out there this morning that behind the scenes your campaign is saying to donors, perry can't win the general. rick perry can't win the general. do you believe that? >> listen, i think that anybody right now can beat barack obama. i think that really as governor romney has said, anyone on that stage has an opportunity to beat president obama. the question is, who can best beat president obama? and we think we are probably in the best position to beat the president. for a couple of reasons. we put into play, i believe, some key blue states that, i think, would be much more difficult for governor perry to

put into play. michigan being one of them. i mean, governor romney is one of his home state, place where his dad was governor, three-term governor, place where he has a really great connection to. if we can put a couple of those states like michigan, wisconsin, put indiana back into play, that's going to make the map a very, very difficult for this white house. >> when it comes to the primary campaign, though, there's been some speculation about how serious you guys are going to compete in iowa. how serious you're going to compete in iowa. >> we're going to play in iowa. the governor will be back there several times campaigning. there will be debates in iowa where we'll be competing in all those debates. this race is -- one thing we've seen, it is a very fluid race and we've seen numbers bouncing around all over the place. we're going to be available and ready to campaign at any state and in order to get the nomination. >> you brought up the general election. i want to play this ad that you guys have out on perry this morning and ask you about it on the other side. here it is. >> who supports governor perry's

decision to give in-state tuition to illegal immigrants? >> want to publicly recognize governor perry and the state of texas by having taken that step forward when you decided to give access to mexican migrants to universities in texas. >> all right. russ, using a former foreign leader in a political ad, that seemed somewhat unprecedented to me. >> you know, he said it. and he was -- he praised governor perry for the action. you know, governor perry was the first governor to support and sign into law in state tuition benefits for illegal immigrants. and this was something that in

the first debate and the second debate he was very proud of and defended. and so this shouldn't be a problem. this is something that governor perry said he is for and he should be proud of. >> a few minutes ago you talked about you think mitt romney can bring michigan into play. i agree with that. new hampshire or some of these other states where democrats have made significant gains over the last six, eight, ten years. but an ad like that, using somebody speaking broken english, do you worry about alienating hispanics and making colorado harder? >> no. >> making nevada harder? making new mexico harder? >> no. i think that legal immigrants, people who are here legally and who are first generation and second generation immigrants are as offended as anyone else that they would have -- they are subsidizing people who are here illegally. and i think that's not going to be a problem at all. i think when you see that governors along the border states with the exception of governor perry oppose this kind of legislation, i think it's quite clear. they're able to win in their respective states. i think it's going to be very

clear that we'll be able to win this. >> before i let you go, more negative ads, will they come from the campaigns or from the super pacs? >> listen, i don't know what's going to happen with campaign ads and super pac ads. i think that we're in uncharted territory here and we're going to be seeing things we've never seen before in terms of the super pacs and what they'll be able to do and how much money they're going to be spending. it's going to be a real interesting couple months. >> how worried are you that you sort of lose control of your own message? >> it's always a problem in a campaign. you always want to control your message as much as you can. but, you know, in a presidential campaign it's always much harder because there are so many other factors involved. and the most you can do is stay consistent, stay on message, keep your head down, and keep going. >> all right. thanks for coming in. >> any time. >> all right. it was 20 years ago on monday that bill clinton announced his candidacy for president, hitting many of the same themes president obama is trying to focus on for 2012. >> all we've gotten out of

washington is status quo paralysis, neglect, and selfishness and division, not leadership and vision. i refuse to be part of a generation of americans that fails to compete in the global economy and so condemns hard working middle class americans to a lifetime of struggle without reward or security. >> james carville's famous reframe it's the economy stupid is still ringing the loudest in many democrats' ears. skip rutherford is the dean of the university of arkansas clinton school of public service and served on the '92 campaign but started talking about a potential clinton presidency years earlier when the two long-time friends attended their daughters' softball games back in little rock. skip, i have you on this morning because you guys are doing a 20-year reunion this weekend in little rock for clinton staffers. everybody is coming. tell me a little bit about it. >> chuck, we've got a big weekend planned. not only is president clinton

coming but secretary clinton is coming. a wide variety of activities including a 20th anniversary speech at the old state house where he announced and accepted the presidency. so it's a big weekend as america looks to 2012 and we look back to eight years of the clinton presidency and celebrate that. >> skip, a couple things, and i'm sure, you know, folks in the democratic party are going to be watching what is said. i know there are public panels that are going to be discussing. here we are in the morning where president obama has another foreign policy victory if you will, and you faced an incumbent president that had a ton of foreign policy success to tout and yet struggled on the economy. looking back at what you were able to navigate back in 1992 what advice do you have for this west wing on how to make sure they don't sort of rest on their

foreign policy laurels? >> well, i think you hit it right, chuck. i think it's going to be a major issue in the campaign. i think two things as i recall in the summer of 1991 sitting at that softball game, hillary clinton said to me that what the democrats need is the right message and the right messenger. i do think in president obama they have a great messenger. i do think they have to work on the message. i think that's going to be a real big factor in this race. the republicans ought to take a look at bill clinton's campaign and i think barack obama has got to take a look at ronald reagan and craft what is going to happen in 2012. >> so you say they don't quite have the right message. well, what is missing? >> well, clearly, i think a further discussion on the economy because i do think james carville was right when it's the economy, stupid, and i think that's going to be a dominating issue in this campaign. but there are elements that certainly work. i mean, i think there are big factors that are working.

we're seeing a lot of things. my daughter for example just bought a small business and is doing quite well in a retail operation. so there are segments of the economy that are doing well but i do think that president obama is a very effective campaigner. i also think that when it gets right down to it's going to be two people on a stage in november and the primaries leading up to november and it's going to be between president obama and whoever the nominee is. right now a generic candidate, it's easy to say "what if" so we have to wait and see who the nominee is. i think governor christie certainly adds some interesting speculation to the mix. bill clinton was an incredible candidate. he was a master campaigner. and he raised significant amount of money to win. there have been very few people on the political scene in my lifetime that have been as good as he is. >> skip, when the 25th reunion

comes around, five years from now, is there another clinton that's going to be running for president? >> i don't know. but i think she certainly has been a great secretary of state. i'm wearing a bow tie today, chuck, that commemorates the dedication of a pedestrian bridge. bill clinton's presidency was a great time for the economy and hillary clinton, i think, will go down in history as one of the finest, maybe the most effective secretaries of state of all time. >> all right. skip rutherford dean at the university of arkansas clinton school. and a close friend of the clintons for years. back before it was cool to say you were an f.o.b. good to see you, sir. >> thanks, chuck. >> okay. we'll check on what's moving wall street next. it is a tumultuous end to the third quarter there. could angela merkel be president obama's secret weapon or weapon of campaign destruction for his re-election? coming up, why what's happening right now in berlin will have a major impact here at home.

which first lady scanned newspapers for bargain items and shopped by telephone? give me the answer at chuck todd and daily rundown.

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on wall street it's the last trading day of the third quarter. the worst quarter since the depth of the financial crisis. okay. is it one of those weird fridays? >> it's a bad friday so far, chuck. yeah. we've had a horrendous quarter because of the european financial crisis and it's the worst quarter since the american financial crisis a couple years ago. and it looks like those fears are what's driving stocks lower. all across europe this morning and also here in the united states as well. there are reports that sochme o the banks are worried about lower levels of profitability. plus, there are -- the situation in greece is getting worse by the day. they need an $11 billion loan

and they have to meet all of these requirements to get that loan. so there are all of these inspectors who have arrived in the country in the last 48 hours but if you look at your screen those are protesters preventing inspectors from meeting with the ministers. the reason the protesters are so angry is they don't like all the things greece has had to do in order to qualify for the loan. the government has been forced to make the government smaller to layoff employees eventually, to cut salaries, to cut pensions, because they've completely run out of money, yet their economy doesn't grow. so the situation there is getting quite dramatic. we just don't know how it's going to play out over the next couple weeks. if greece doesn't get that money they run out of cash on october 15th. that means they start issuing i.o.u.s to workers. they have already stopped paying a lot of their bills as it is right now. back to you. >> wow. striking news this morning. thank you. the daily rundown will be back in 30 seconds.

i'm not surprised to learn we're getting more information about the air strike that killed the radical al qaeda cleric anwar al awlaki. let's bring nbc news chief investigative producer bob windram your sources always as good as anybody in our news organization. tell us more about the strike. >> first of all, chuck, we're hearing just moments ago that among the others who were killed with al awlaki this morning was someone named samir kahn who is

also an american who was the editor of "inspire" magazine a magazine set up by al qaeda in the arabian peninsula to instruct people in things like bomb making. his most famous story was "how to make a bomb in the kitchen of your mom." another english speaker, another american. this has now become a bigger strike than we had anticipated earlier today. what i think is critical here, chuck, is that this is an inspirational leader. this is someone who exchanged e-mails with major hasan before he went out and killed 13 people at fort hood. this is someone who worked with abdul mutallab the underwear bomber in christmas, 2009. and this is someone who had 5,000 facebook friends on his facebook page until nbc reported it and facebook took it down. this is somebody who understood the media, understood the social media, and understood how to

inspire people. >> you know, i have a former administration official who said that this death today, when you couple it with bin laden, and frankly when you couple it with all of the other al qaeda operatives, both in pakistan and in yemen, in between, basically from may until today, that you can make an argument today is v.q. day, his words, victory over al qaeda day. is that going a little too triumphant? >> it may be a little triumphant but i think the critical point here is that we have reached a turning point in that the united states is able to go out on a regular basis and take out people not only at the top leadership but people at the next level of leadership who are aspiring to be al qaeda leaders and that has an effect of essentially causing fewer and fewer al qaeda leaders to raise their hand and say, i'm ready for that job.

that is one of the intentions of this campaign is to not only kill the leaders but to make it more difficult for them to replenish themselves. and that i think is probably as important as the individuals who are being killed. >> bob windram one of our senior intelligence reporting producers on this. bob, always good to have you on. >> good to be here. all right. for all the talk about tax cuts and rebuilding bridges it's what's happening overseas and to a certain extent it's out of our hands that may seal the fate of the u.s. economy. so without significant steps from the eu, the greek debt crisis that we were just talking about earlier threatens to spill out in every direction. and ready for what this means? angela merkel could hold the keys to president obama's political future. our guest is the president of river tries research and contributor to "the daily beast." let's go through wallace goihat on in berlin. are they going to come up with

the money to bail out greece? there was a big vote yesterday that authorized this multi-acronym bailout fund of about 440 billion euros which is about $600 billion u.s. every single one of the 17 euro countries have to ratify this to have it go into place. everything the fed did had to go through every single state legislature. it's a complicated process. but, you know, with germany saying yes it becomes that much more likely for everyone to say yes. i think in the greater scheme of things, this is the beginning faltering but still real steps of the european union addressing their own significant debt issues as you just showed the shots from greece that michelle cabrera pointed to. this fund is reel ally the firs step toward some glimmer of hope that this is not going to spin out of control and become a lehman brothers u.s. financial crisis times ten. >> right. the concern is that even though they may agree to some amount of money here to help bail out greece short term, are they in

it for the long haul? >> you know, who knows? in the long run we're all debt, right? so what the fate of the greek legislature is in a year i have absolutely no idea. or the german currency. one thing i want to make a point about is the news today is so unremittingly negative about all of this and the fears have become ever more ratcheted up. sure. >> obviously in the united states we aren't as attendant to the fears of the european meltdown but as you've mentioned the fate of obama, the fate of our own economy is pretty closely tethered to that and our own economy is not exactly in great shape either. so i think we do need to look at the fact that governments are capable as are institutions, financial and people dealing with crisis when they really recognize that there is a crisis. i think that's really what's been lacking over the past several months and now the europeans are beginning to recognize this and i think deal with it and that should be treated as a good sign. we are not out of the woods yet. >> and how much more is going to

be needed so you have what berlin's got to do? what other -- and i know that they've been the lynch pin here. are there any other concerns of holdouts in the eu? >> i think there's talk about, i mean, really obscure stuff going on here like finland in a country of 2.5 million people a demanding collateral for the extra greek loan or they'll say no. you know, again, it would be as if rhode island stood out and said absolutely no more bailout money. but i think that if germany goes along and france is committed, that's really what matters because that's where the money is. and it's going to require a lot more than $600 billion when all is said and done but i think the point now is there is pain to be had and these markets are going to be dicey and i don't think psychology is going to go, woo, we're off to the races. >> right. >> but action and money being put in motion to deal with this is absolutely crucial. it's going to be a lot more than it 440 billion euros. >> let's connect the dots. the bailout takes place, the eu

is sort of coming to grips with what they have to do for greece here. now for us, this means what? does this relieve some of our major financial institutions? does this make them a little more comfortable, loosening loans for instance for small business? >> yeah. i mean, the problem here is the inner connectivity of capital daily and financial markets. it's not do our banks have any massive exposure to a greek default or even an italian default. it's that if those things happen, first of all, equity markets would likely implode and they're kind of partly imploding or going down a lot in anticipation of that possibility. so what happens is that our banks, which are connected to their banks which are connected to asian banks start hoarding capital and, yes, that is another tailwind or another headwind against further lending. but i think the obstacles to further lending in the united states are not the existence of capital or even banks hoarding it per se. it's just lack of demand for these loans and an incredibly stringent credit requirements

that have been place onondaga them bauonondaga -- placed on them because of the financial crisis. >> the money is there and that means to be as much as anything. thanks for putting this in english. >> thank you. >> it was very helpful. >> we can do the german version a little later if you'd like. >> all right. thanks very much. well, all right. been a big, busy morning here on friday. the death of al awlaki marks another major victory for obama's foreign policy. with the economy still in the ditch does that even matter? we'll get into it next with our political panel. it's a good one. of course the white house scoop of the day -- really, really? you bring me chicken noodle? seriously? you don't even throw out a gumbo today? it is friday. friday is usually gumbo day. [ male announcer ] this is coach parker... whose non-stop day starts with back pain... and a choice. take advil now and maybe up to four in a day. or choose aleve and two pills for a day free of pain.

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the death of bin laden, the dismantling of al qaeda, the

ouster of gadhafi. as was put eloquently by bob shrum barack obama is arguably the most success phil foreign policy president since george h.w. bush and we know what happened to him. the vice president put the problem a little more bluntly yesterday, speaking washington gaffe as some call it speaking to the truth on a florida radio station. >> even though 50 some percent of the american people think the economy tanked because of the last administration, that's not relevant. what's relevant is we're in charge. it's gotten better but it hasn't gotten good enough. i don't blame them for being mad. we're in charge. so they're angry. >> our guest is a democratic pollster. susan molinari is a former republican congresswoman from new york and major garrett a congressional correspondent. fred, let me go with you first. we've not seen this president get a lot of -- even the bin laden bump was small.

we've not seen him get many foreign policy bumps. i suspect we won't see out of this one. >> i think that as the vice president said, and thanks for the easy question, it's all about the economy fundamentally right now. >> susan, we saw this in 1991. >> right. >> 1992. george h.w. bush got to oversee the echnd of the cold war. >> very successful middle east -- >> figuring out iraq in a way that seemed to work at the time. >> correct. >> and the american public was like, yeah. that's nice. almost like they expected it to be done. i think as somebody else was talking this morning, they said, yeah, they got bin laden and now there is an expectation, of course we're good at this. >> i think it's partly that but also people are hurting. unemployment, you know, remains stagnant. and moving in a negative direction. and that the american public doesn't seem to feel that there is any solution to this. the vice president said it, our unscripted vice president. but the president said the same thing in a radio address in

kansas city in the summer time when he said this is going to be a referendum on me. we all know that presidential elections largely are referendums on the incumbent president. and right now his numbers, i think the last thing i saw in real clear politics were at 42%. they haven't risen much above that. where we're going to be next year is a different story but he's already introduced his jobs act. he is going around the country promoting it, giving these great speeches, filling arenas, and his numbers haven't moved. so i'd say right now you did ask fred yang a very difficult question. >> there is a way though on the margins. >> i think presidential campaigns are about achievements and about overall direction. and national security is an important part of every single presidential campaign. it will be a part of the 2012 campaign in a significant way. and the benefits from killing bin laden and awlaki will be clearer in august of next year than they are now. and on other foreign policy issues you could say president obama and this may not please the democratic left has in some

ways followed the policies of president bush. a continuity of leadership on a very important national security issue. and what he inevitably does and in presidential campaigns you earn what you get credit for. >> right. you talk about what you've done and you phrase it in a way that catches on with the american people. there will be a national security argument. this president can make it aggressively against an unknown republican challenger who has no record and i think that will be a net positive. >> there is a simultaneous argument he can make by doing this by having these successes it makes it even easier for him to continue to draw down and slowly move troops out of afghanistan. >> definitely that. and major had a great point. we know what the big issue is going to be. you don't have to necessarily go from a to b to make that point. he might go from a to a minus to b and i think showing not just competence but effectiveness as our commander in chief is a very important element of that. >> all right. we'll go full fledged in presidential politics after the break. stick around. trivia time we ask, which first

lady scanned newspapers for bargain items and shopped by telephone? the answer which a lot of you did not get, you all assumed it was either pat nixon or eleanor roosevelt. the answer was mamie eisenhower. speaking of course of bargain shopping check out who got caught on camera at an alexandra, virginia target yesterday. behind those dark shades and baseball cap it was first lady michelle obama. she shopped for about 40 minutes unnoticed before finally being recognized by the cashier while checking out. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] tom's discovering that living healthy can be fun. see? he's taking his vitamins. new one a day vitacraves plus omega-3 dha is a complete multivitamin for adults. plus an excellent source of omega-3 dha in a great tasting gummy. one a day, gummies for grown-ups. and a family mobile plan. uh... um... [ bling! ]

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with the fund raising coming up, how are the numbers looking? >> i'm not going the answer you. i think you should -- you should really go home and think about why'd ask that today. >> proving that he's not fully

engaged in the campaign portion of the presidential campaign. let's bring back the panel. okay. we have a lot of deadlines coming on. one is fund raising. from what we know, all fund raising seems to be down for everybody in the third quarter. fred, does that surprise you at all given the history of third-quarter fund raising because it's the summer and the economy? >> none of that surprises me in the abstract but the first contest is coming up and you would think even republican donors suffering for the economy or maybe gone would have been motivated. i think it goes to what we'll talk about later probably is lack of enthusiasm for the current field. >> i want to get at that. i hear about it more out of new york, republican donors. you are as plugged in as anybody up there right now and that's -- there's enthusiasm in the base of the republican party to beat president obama but a missing enthusiasm of the establishment. >> that's unusual for republicans thinking there's a

better candidate out there. ronald reagan and we all remember republicans didn't really like reagan and didn't think reagan was ronald reagan. >> they liked conley and baker. >> right, exactly. so that is pretty typical of republicans. i do think there's an issue out there that we have -- emergency room w-- mitt romney running fo president for seven years and people will go out there and campaign hard to beat president obama but as long as we have ten more days to play the guessing game, the fact that chris christie, governor christie is still out there speaking about -- threatening suicide anymore or at least the last week, keeps some people in new york and new jersey and particularly the money people saying -- >> rick perry's money, though. his is the report we're curious about. the first report and sort of like he's got a potential to be this giant fund-raiser but we know that there was some slow -- the fact that he was raising money in west virginia this week tells me he's like desperately

wanting to show the nice $15 million number. >> finding dollars where he can find him. >> what's big? >> anything over 15 is certainly credible. and closer to 20 would be in the big category. i don't think anyone would disagree about that. two factors are obvious. the economy, disposal income is a problem. there's enthusiasm broadly to defeat president obama and not a vessel to collect the enthusiasm but super pacs are a different factor and big, institutional donors may find them a better, more convenient, more linear and more accountable way to move their money in a political conversation because when you -- if you give money to a super pac, somebody tells you how you're moving the needle, the poll numbers adjusting. you call a campaign, you could get one of -- >> fred, you're involved i believe. your firm is involved with some super pacs and various ways. how influential do you think the super pac s are?

>> i think on the republican side with not a lot of enthusiasm for the current field looking for the next big thing until they can't, i think it's a competition with the other candidates. i think -- look. major said, number one goal is -- susan said this. to beat barack obama. >> they haven't found the vessel. >> i joined an organization called the rebecca project, a human rights organization for women and for girls in the united states and in africa who are victims of sexual abuse, trauma, violence in their lives. addiction and trying to get themselves back in to society and i'm really honored to be working with the amazing organization where most of the survivors are the advocates and the best way to reach the broken hearts. >> great shameless plug. >> my article. and the blog on nationaljournal.com. >> second from national journal this week. >> it's good. good blog. it speaks for itself.

>> i love susan's shameless plug and mine is my daughter grace's filth grade soccer team is 2-0. going for 3-0 this week. >> i love that. >> good one. i'm going to defer to susan's. that's it for "the daily run down." coming up, the latest on the death of anwar al awlaki. bye-bye. when you pour chunky beef with country vegetables soup over it... you can do dinner. four minutes, around four bucks. campbell's chunky. it's amazing what soup can do.