herman cain's pin code for his atm machine i love it. washington. >> tony tiger should be left alone, and sugar causes obesity and a host of health problems. it's way too early. what time is it? it's "morning joe." see you tomorrow morning. chuck todd takes over now. well, for the fourth time this year, it's another republican shootin to the top. this time, it's herman cain looking like he's mitt romney's chief challenger. he's got to make the case that he's not just the flavor of this month. also, president obama's job rating, still upside down, hardening numbers. but what about all that democratic discontent talk with president obama that we keep hearing about? maybe nobody told the base. we'll have some results for you. and secretary of state hillary clinton talks exclusively with some partner here that i used to know, savannah guthrie, about the iran-backed assassination plot.

and also those hillary for biden rumors. her reaction ahead. it's thursday, october 13th, 2011. this this is the daily rundown. a tough fund raising burden in july for the debt ceiling. we'll tell you how much has been raised for the re-election. plus. primary calendar. new hampshire lays down the gauntlet with nevada. could we see voting in early december, and the official end of the new hampshire primary going forward? we'll see. let's get right to my first reads of the morning. fueled by tea party supporters, conservatives and high-interest republican primary voters, herman cain is vaulted into the lead in the race for the republican nomination nationally. another sign of how volatile a republican race this has been. this is the fourth poll in the last five where somebody new has surged to the top to challenge mitt romney. in april, donald trump. july, michele bachmann who stormed into second place. august, rick perry shot to the

top. now herman cain train. cain now leads the republican field with 27% of the vote, followed closely by the establishment front runner, mitt romney at 23% of the vote. pick rick perry in third, down in double digits to 16%. no republican candidate we have tested so has been viewed as positively this year as cain in this poll. he's in that favorable rating among all voters. not just republican voters. and among republican voters, it is a huge net positive rating. highest favorable rating among republicans we have seen at 52%. romney's numbers have remained stubbornly consistent. 23% is the exact same number he got in august. by the way, add up the cain and perry numbers in if august, you get 43%. add them up this month, you get 43%. notice a pattern here? if you just looked at these numbers on paper and all things were equal, you would say this is cain nomination to lose. now, we know all things aren't

equal. cain doesn't have the resources, doesn't have the paid staff. everything is pointing to this being one of those unstable front runners, not really going to hold up. this too shall pass. but i'll tell you, our pollsters reinterviewed some of these cain supporters and there is a reason why he has popped that's more than just he's this flavor of the month. they like that he's not a politician. they like that he's not -- that he's a businessman. that's what's resonated so far. speaking of stubborn stability, the president's numbers are stable. and that's not a good thing. the president's approval rating is stuck at 44%. even worse, is the country's overall pessimism. 74% say the country is headed in the wrong direction. the highest number recorded since obama took office. by the way, last month, that number was the highest number since obama took office. the silver lining for the president, his jobs plan is popular. 63% favor the bill. that's only after you give him a brief description.

surprisingly, 40% before that had no opinion at all. voters also support the way the president would pay for the jobs bill by taxing the wealthy and corporations. so his views and his vision is favored. but has not translated to the president personally and obviously not translated to legislation. and finally, the president hazard made marjnal improvement in his general election numbers. he leads 44 to 42. by the way, keep checking that 44, exact same number as the job rating, not a coincidence. that's what happens in a reelect. your job numbers and reelect start converging. if it it's mitt romney, obama leads him 46-44. romney does test better against president obama. cain trails the president by double digits, 49-38. rick perry trails the president 51-39. so despite his head winds in the polls and a string of missed fund raisers during the summer debt ceiling fight, the president did have a pretty strong fund-raising quarter. the president raised more than

$70 million combined for his re-election and the democratic party during the summer, 42.8 million for the campaign, 27.3 million for the dnc. but folks, all that talk about a1 billion and the obama campaign will say we didn't talk about that talk, you guys in the media were talking of that talk when you were doing the math. clearly, though, this is -- they're going to raise a lot of money. they're going to probably have more money than the republican counterparts. but $1 billion is probably a target too high. all right. live pictures here from the white house south lawn, where president obama and vice president biden and the first lady are about to greet the south korean president and first lady, president li's official visit comes a day after congress, approved a free trade agreement between the united states and south korea, following this welcome ceremony. presidents obama and li will hold several bilateral meetings today and a joint press conference this afternoon. tonight the president will be honored with a white house state dinner. now, they have been going back

and forth this morning, by the way, about whether to hold that event inside or outside, because it is a very wet washington, d.c. morning. all right. our new nbc poll shows another silver lining for democrats. anxious about the president's re-election bid. on a generic ballot, congressional democrats are in their best showing in almost two years. 45% say they want democrats in charge of congress, just 41% pick republicans. it's actually a ten-point sing swing since august when republicans held that lead 47% to the democrats' 41. new york congressman steve israel is chairman of the dccc. i will put a cautionary note on there that for some reason we have seen volatility on that number. so congressman israel, let me ask you, i know you guys have seen similar volatility. is that due to just the overall unhappiness with washington so maybe one month they say oh, i hate the republicans and one month, oh, i hate the democrats? >> well, no, actually, we have been consistently ahead in the

generic polling in the past several months. and that's because there is a deep sense of buyers' remorse that has set in across this country. independent voters in particular are realizing they did not vote for republican majority that would try and end medicare in order to protect tax cuts from big oil companies. they didn't vote for a republican majority that were trying to close down the government on a three-month schedule. and so this buyers' remorse is setting in. we are ahead in the generic polling. and in fact today we announced again, this house is in play, chuck. we need 25 seats to take the house back. today we announced we have 60 strong candidates running in 60 competitive districts. this house is in play, and that poll buttresses us. >> let me ask you this, though. what is the -- what is the sales pitch? the elevator pitch. two voters that say, you know, they didn't like, they felt as if there was too much legislation coming out of the democratic congress, so they essentially fired you. >> look, we have -- >> maybe they're not happy with what the republicans are doing. so what's the elevator pitch?

what is it that the democrats are going to do differently, and tell a swing voter, well, we learned our lesson from what you didn't like before. and here's what we'll do differently. >> the democrats have proposed actions that would help small businesses create jobs. the republicans have not lifted a finger. not passed a single bill to help a single small business, create a single job. we have proposed that legislation every time we have come up with a solution, republicans have said no. now, we have recruits from all walks of life. their pitch is very simple. these are people who live the american dream. we've got the son of immigrants who became a nasa astronaut who did a space shuttle mission. we have police chiefs and fire chiefs, two senior retired military generals, army generals and veterans. these are people who spent their entire lives not thinking about the left or right, but thinking about how to move forward. they live the american dream, we want to reignite the american dream, which has faded under this republican house majority. >> well, let me ask you this.

in our poll, we asked about reviews of the federal government. 82% said it was unhealthy and needed large reforms. so what are the large reforms -- it's clear the public would like it. what kind of reforms would a new democratic majority bring to congress that they didn't bring four years ago? >> well, we're going to reform the priorities that the house republican majority has insisted on. our reforms would be to say that we have a debt, we understand it. we want the to reduce that debt. we propose not asking seniors on medicare to sacrifice to reduce that debt. we'll reform that debt by asking people making over $1 million to pay a little bit more in their taxes. we'll reform that debt by closing those corporate tax loopholes. we'll reform that debt and bring down that debt by standing with middle class families and working families while the republicans have every minute of every hour of every day said they will protect the richest of the rich, protect corporate tax loopholes, protect oil companies

subsidies. those are the kinds of reforms we are running on. we want that changed and we will bring about that change when we win back the majority. >> but there seems to be something else going on here. and that's the overall distrust, concern, discontent with washington. what you're talking about is sort of the ideological, visionary differences, and i get that argument on one handled. but there's an underlying concern about what's going on with congress, with washington. what about those types of reforms? >> well, look. that is why this poll and other polls are all clearly saying that the american people trust house democrats to be in the majority. they would prefer house democrats, because they understand that we will engage in those reforms. let me give you another example. house democrats attempted to pass legislation that would stop these nefarious secret stealth groups from beaming into congressional districts, unnamed, hidden, in the shadows, and trying to affect and impact

elections. we were for that reform. republicans have been blocking that reform. house democrats want to make sure we reforming our voting process. the republicans are trying to engage in a system of voter suppression that's going to alienate 5 million voters, most of them senior citizens or many of them senior citizens across the country. there is no reform more important than ensuring that every american has the right to vote. and it is this majority in the house of representatives, this republican majority, that is actively and on a daily basis trying to suppress that vote. so if you want to talk about specific reforms, we want to open up the system, clean the system, the republicans have stood by their special interest buddies every step of the way, whether it's advertising in congressional districts secretly or trying to stop people from casting their votes. >> congressman, you're on the armed services committee. i want to ask you about this -- >> i was -- >> -- these allegations about iran and what they were trying to -- what they were trying to do potentially on american soil. are you satisfied that you have all the information you need,

that the u.s. government has put out everything that they have when it comes to making this connection and should they put out more information? >> well, first of all, look, i'm rather hawkish on this issue. the only information that i really need with respect to iran is to look at what they have said, look at what they are doing. they are a reckless regime, intent -- they have the intention of developing nuclear weapons, and they have the will to use nuclear weapons. and so i do not believe we can be vigilant enough in protecting us and our allies around the world against the threat of iran. >> all right. congressman steve israel, chairman of the dccc. we'll take a look at those 60 recruits you say, right? >> yes, sir. >> we will take a look. congressman, thanks for coming on this morning. >> thanks, chuck. well, will the herman cain train jump the tracks? up next, we're digging deeper into why herman cain is topping mitt romney. plus, busting up the myth of

democratic discontent. another surprising bright spot for president obama in our new nbc "wall street journal" poll. our pollsters are here to crunch the numbers. and still to come, an nbc news exclusive, secretary of state hillary clinton talks about her next political move. is she really interested in switching places with biden? but first a look ahead at the president's schedule. as you know, it's a very wet arrival ceremony for the south korean president. and by the way, as we go to break, we'll take another live look at the rival ceremony for the south korean president. we're expecting president obama to walk out that door any minute now. frankly, we thought it was going to be a few minutes ago. that's the weather this day. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] dove and suave beauty products,

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some live pictures again of the welcome ceremony for the south korean president going on right now at the white house. we are waiting here to see -- it looks like the president is about to walk out. so we will show you this. the two presidents. a little pomp and circumstance going on here with the trade agreement. tomorrow, by the way, the two presidents are headed to michigan as part of president obama trying to make the point that this trade agreement is a way that could create jobs here in the united states, and maybe some more fords, gms get sold in seoul. all right, so far the republican race for president looks more like a game of musical chairs. today herman cain is the man on top. how did he get there, and can he make it last? it's time to dig into the new nbc news "wall street journal" poll with the guys behind the numbers. the democratic pollster, peter

hart and on the republican side, michael roberts. you guys do the numbers. welcome both. so cain is leading and i wanted to dig in and figure he out, okay, where is cain overperforming and where is romney overperforming. so we put up among the voting groups in the republican primary where he's over performing. here is cain, leads by a bigger margin among high-interest voters, among men, among those 55 or older, among those with college education, among tea party supporters and among very conservative republicans. peter hart, that's a pretty good coalition if you're a republican, is it not? >> great coalition. the only problem is, the election is not today. and you are the person who said it. musical chairs. everybody has been up, and they last about 30 days and then they go back down. this story here is obviously herman cain has touched a special nerve. and that nerve is, he's a common person, they see him as in touch, they see him as a businessman. >> and you know this because you went back and you guys -- you

re-interviewed cain supporters because you frankly wanted to know instead of us guessing. >> exactly. >> my favorite was he balances his own checkbook. this idea that he's the normal guy. >> exactly right. and essentially there's a group of voters out there. i think they're the tea party group. and they're looking for somebody who is sort of normal, down to earth. they probably see mitt romney much more as a gq candidate. you know, perfectly intact. a businessman. but an executive versus a businessman with the real touch on the books. >> so mike, romney is among the less interested voters. among women, an interesting gender gap. non-tea partiers and moderate to liberal republicans. and there are a third of primary vote who are don't call themselves conservative. and there was a lot of jokes on twitter, how many of those -- the republican party is a bigger tent that sometimes gets cliched

up to be. so how much of this number is about romney and how much of this cain number is about -- about everybody else? >> well, i think that, you know, this continues to be a very volatile situation. if we were talking a month ago, we would have been talking about rick perry. and we probably would have been saying some of the same things. so you've got to think about a week, two weeks, three weeks from now, where are we going to be in this race? the other thing to think about is that republicans continue to be more and more interested and more enthusiastic about this field. in june, we got a number, 45-45 about their enthusiasm, their current field. today it's 63. >> yeah. very happy. >> that's important to highlight. >> and quickly, it's not as if the party is negative on romney, right? >> right. >> romney does do fine. he's just not their first choice. >> right. well, he's not their first choice this month. >> and he wasn't last month. but he's -- but he's still hanging around. >> right. and he's got that staying power. the other thing you've got to

really think about is that the enthusiasm across the republican -- republican party, all republicans are more enthusiastic about the -- the 2012 election than democrats. so that's an important point to look at in the numbers. >> all right. let's go to the democrats. one number that -- there's a lot of chatter among the -- among shall we say the amtrak corridor that, oh, my gosh, somebody could primary the president. no, they can't, actually, if you look at our numbers. we asked democrats, do they -- would they like to see president renominated, 73%, to put that in perspective. the best number bill clinton had at any point in time was 67%. president obama has a loyal base. >> he definitely has a loyal base. and what it tells us is that the president may be down, you mentioned it this morning on the "today" show, and you covered it. but the other side of it is, they like him personally, and secondly, more importantly, they

give him credit for various things. i think he'll get credit on jobs, and more importantly, he gets credit on dealing with terrorism. both of these things suggest that he has his problems, and they're economic. but there are other sides, and they certainly aren't going to primary him. >> a few other issues we threw on her, one about the wall street protest. how much are people paying attention? 40% told us a lot. another 40 said some. so 80% paying some attention. and when we asked the ten to support, 37% tend to support, tend to oppose, 18%. what struck you about the numbers? >> a lot of party differences, of course. liberal democrats seem to be more in support of these folks. and conservative republicans aren't. aren't as supportive. but, you know, this is a very, very new kind of movement. so i'm sure it's going to develop over time. >> and one other issue was the president's jobs bill, peter. he's got -- on one hand, you had

not a lot of recognition for the bill before you explained it. but then once you explained it, he had the public on his side. how would you be interpreting that if you were david plouffe? >> if i -- i would be out there and i would be doing exactly what he's doing. but can we pick up on mica's point, which is a great point. and that is, look, you've got protests on wall street and you've got a stale and unhealthy government. and those two numbers together get you over 70% of the american public. why is herman cain doing well? there are an awful lot of people that are unhappy with what's going on. that's what we need to pick up out of this poll. it's deeper and more important than -- and it's coming from the right and the left in different ways. >> and those are -- those two segments are different sets of people. >> different sets of people, but they agree on the larger problem. >> exactly right. >> buffalo springfield is right. there is something happening out there, and at this point you guys can't tell us what it is. all right. peter hart, micah roberts, thank

you both. we go back to live pictures of a rainy south lawn, the south korean president arrived moments ago. so more of the pomp and circumstance and a lost umbrellas this morning. they were going to try to move this inside, but you know what, they were really trying not to. up next, a preview of what's driving the markets today. slovakia is back. and how about that blackberry blackout. is rimm in big trouble? are we all going iphone? plus, lonely at the top. we're hearing lots of talk these days about president obama not being a people person. but our new poll says, not so fast. but first today's trivia question. who was once spotted reading a book during a white house state dinner. tweet me@chucktodd@thedailyrundown. the answer coming up. [ female announcer ] the humana walmart-preferred

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on wall street,

disappointing numbers on the u.s. and chinese economy are pushing futures lower. cnbc's brian shactman joins us now with the market rundown. number one, slovakia back in, so that's good news. >> yeah. >> but what about some of the weekly jobs claims? is that driving the market today? >> well, a little bit, chuck. they're a little change but still above 400,000 and that's not a great thing for the economy. and then we got some word that china's export growth to europe, and it sounds like a little inside baseball, but it's their number one exporter, cut in half from august to september. so that's significant. that's driving us down a little bit. jpmorgan reported their earnings, the first of the big banks, did beat estimates, but it is still down. they're not showing growth, not making a lot of money. the one other thing i want to point out before i get to blackberry, foreclosures over the summer spiked and it's a good and a bad news story. because maybe it's showing the banks are starting to work through that inventory. but to get from the first initial paperwork to the final part of it of getting the house off the books takes 11 months on average. so that's a long time to get these houses through. and research in motion, they say

they're working on getting this global problem with the blackberry taken care. the bottom line is, there are millions and millions of messages and e-mails that are back logged they have to work through. and i don't know about you, chuck, but i'm still on it. and i had about six or seven hours without using it at all. and the one thing that people are still using the blackberry for is to trust the e-mail and security. if they don't have that, they have a key board and that's it, you know? >> i hear you. i'm telling you. if it an apple store had a 50% discount for me to turn in my blackberry today, how many people do you think would do it? >> a lot. i talked to some people on the futures network who are using it who are loving it. >> i hear you. we've got to get that special permission. brian, thanks very much. > >

president obama is welcoming south korean president lee ming bok. holding a dinner tonight in time for the trade pack to be approved. the next presidential hopeful to come and kiss the ring of the donald is michele bachmann. again. the minnesota congresswoman met with donald trump for the third time in new york today. the meeting comes just days after bachmann told reporters in new hampshire she is rebooting her campaign. and the opening bell has rung on wall street. dow futures were down a bit today. weak economic news out of china and a quarterly report from

jpmorgan that showed lower profits. a few other stories making headlines. the confessed al qaeda terrorist faces a mandatory life sentence after abruptly pleading guilty yesterday to eight charges, including the attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction. the so-called underwear bomber admitted to trying to bring down a detroit-bound passenger plane nearly two years ago on christmas. libya's new leadership says rebel fighters have captured one of moammar gadhafi's sons. the revolutionary council says he was taken from the sirte to benefit benghazi for questioning. these reports have not been confirmed. new hampshire is considering holding its presidential primary as early as the first week of december. december 6th or 13th are both realistic options. if nevada refuses to move their caucuses from january 14th to january 17th. this would be the beginning of

the end of new hampshire's strangle hold, i can promise you that. and three trade deals cruise through the house and senate yesterday after four years of delay. the obama administration says the pacts with south korea, colombia and panama could support tens of thousands of american jobs. both parties hold the deals as an example of bipartisan cooperation. tomorrow to celebrate the trade pack, the president's of south korea and united states are going to michigan. savannah guthrie sat down with secretary of state hillary clinton yesterday. savannah asked the secretary about the terror plot broken up by the united states this week, and what role the iranian government may have played in it. here's what she said. >> do we know that the top levels of the iranian government were aware of this plot? >> we think that this was conceived and directed from tehran. we know that it goes to a certain level within the quds

force which is part of the military wing of the iranian government. and we know that this was in the making, and there was a lot of communication between the defendants and others in tehran. so we're going to let the evidence unfold. but the important point to make is that this just is in violation of international norms. it is a state-sponsored act of terror, and the world needs to speak out strongly against it. >> it's very brazen, as you mentioned. which suggests the iranians didn't particularly fear retaliation by the u.s. >> well, i think it's a little hard to tell what was really going on, why this was given a seal of approval, why there was a go-ahead from tehran. whether within their military and their government the kinds of debates and divisions that we are now watching unfold. because it's difficult do know who is actually making the decisions. this was for political purposes,

was this just a crazy idea that got out of hand. >> do you think the ayatollah ordered it? >> we don't know. and i'm not going to speculate. >> savannah also asked secretary clinton about those rumors that it always seems to pop up concerning another job. >> you ever google yourself? >> i don't. >> if you googled -- >> i'm a little worried about that. >> if you googled yourself today, you would find suggestion that perhaps you would be vice president, that you could do -- there would be a switcharoo and you would be vice president. biden would be secretary of state. is there any chance you would be vice president in the second term? >> no, there is not. >> is it in the realm of possibility. >> i do not think it's in the realm of possibility. and in large measure because i think vice president biden has done an amazingly good job. he has taken on the burden of selling the economic plan, of traveling the country, of answering people's questions. >> has anyone ever raised the possibility with you? >> no, i think it may be a subject for speculation on google, but it's not a serious

issue in the administration. >> so there you have it. as president obama has suggested in the past, being leader of the free world can be a pretty lonely job. >> you've got a friend now? >> i've ginlly got a friend. >> but has the president's loaner status become a political detriment? that was the suggestion in this "washington post" article last weekend, penned by none other than scott wilson who joins me now. all right, scott, obama the lonely. this, on one handled, could be seen as a very negative thing. on the other, the presidency is always a lonely job. so explain the premise of your piece. >> the premise is that in 2008, he ran as a candidate -- a brand new candidate. and he wasn't tied to any one group, any one constituency. the public projected whatever they wanted to on him. he was sort of the every man. as it comes to re-election though, he hasn't built the kinds of personal relationships that make politics work in this country.

he doesn't have many proxies speaking up for him. his relationship with hill democrats is not good. and this isolates him at a time when he's really looking for as many friends and as excited a democratic base as he possibly can. >> so we could -- go back and back seat drive some of the things they did and chose not to do in their first year. but let me ask it the other way. you just pointed out that one of the things that some people really liked about him as a candidate was that he wasn't tied to the old ways of washington. so he hasn't participated in the old ways of washington. he's not a back slapper. he doesn't go up there all the time on capitol hill and do those things. so you're saying that's a bad thing? >> well, it is to the degree -- the nitty-gritty aspect of politics. and what he is good at is the problem-solving, the information. but he doesn't sell his -- his plans very much in person. you just heard secretary clinton talking about vice president biden selling the economic plan around the country. >> right.

>> that's what -- and part of -- one of the very good things that i heard that president obama did was he picked biden, a real people politician, to offset his coolness and his technocratic ways, which the president himself has admitted. >> you've described some of -- what's been interesting is the chatter on this piece, as you and i were talking and i've heard this from others. nobody disputes that this is how he makes decisions. that, you know, he gets a lot of input. and he goes off on his own and he makes a final decision. i've had others say, hey, that's how the benefit bin laden thing happened. but what's the down side to that decision making process? >> i think you just said something very interesting, which is this is perfect for the kinds of counterterrorism successes that he's been very good at. a room full of experts, information, risk assessment. these are things that he really enjoys doing. he's good at, he trusts himself in doing them. the domestic side, the selling of health care on capitol hill.

the coddling of donors, which is the seedy side of politics he doesn't like doing. those are the kinds of things he doesn't like doing, doesn't do well. and at times when he's really looking -- his approval rating is down and he's trying to win re-election, you need that help. >> and the detriment on capitol -- is that why there has been so much miscommunication, harry reid, chuck schumer and the white house? >> that's right. there has been a lot of miscommunication. you hear a lot from democrats on capitol hill, this is a white house that doesn't talk to them. that treats them condescendingly, really as junior partners. and president obama wasn't a senator long ago so there is some almost personal resentment on that level. so i think that explains it. >> scott wilson, it was a great read, and one of those that will be i think looked back on over time. >> thank you. >> nice to see you. up next, the political panel is here. we'll have even more on our new nbc news "wall street journal"

poll. plus what herman cain says about being the so-called flavor of the month. and why warren buffett is counting his millions in public now. but first, white house soup of the day. you would think maybe there would be a korean theme but there's not. white chicken chili. and on a day like this, good to have on a rainy day. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. ♪

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the daily flash back to the miracle at the mine. it was on this day one year ago when those 33 chilean miners trapped underground for nearly 70 days were brought safely back to the surface. every single one of them. one of those amazing global moments where everybody got together. all right. herman cain is responding to reporters who say he's not the

real thing, that his high poll numbers are here today and will be gone tomorrow. >> are you a flash in the pan? >> flavor of the week? no. because there's a difference between the flavor of the week and haagen-dazs black walnut, because it tastes good all of the time. call me haagen-dazs black walnut. >> michael steele, former chairman of the republican party. peter hart, our democratic pollster, of course, and jean cummings, for bloomberg news. peter pinch-hitting as our other panel person today. >> i'm honored. >> he got caught in the d.c. weather, because people think when it rains you've got to hit the brakes. herman cain. >> yes, sir. >> is he haagen-dazs walnut? tastes good for a long period of time. why is nobody believing herman cain? >> that's a very good question. i think they don't believe it because right now he has no organization, $1 million cash on

hand. and with new hampshire now threatening about having about -- their primary on december 13th or the 6th -- >> which, by the way, will -- the new hampshire primary will be irrelevant if they're too early. everybody can say, well, forget it, i don't have time. >> it's all -- there's just noise. the reality, the schedule has moved up so you've got to have your game on the ground now. and he doesn't. so i think a lot of the political pros look at that and go not so much. this is where you put on the brakes. voters vote. it's not about all of the people you have around you. and i think right now the voters are sending two messages. one, we like herman, and two we like him possibly on the ticket as a number two. >> jean cummings, i want to read you a quote from "the christian science mondaytory" october 2007. hillary clinton hazas what a presidential candidate seeks. she tops polls, campaign coffer it's time to invoke yogi berra's caution, it ain't over until it's over.

but the inevitability train, she was trying to create one. and granted, the candidacy of barack obama has stronger as far as any challengers infrastructure wise as michael steele pointed out. but the republican party seems to be jumping on the romney train and the polls don't support it. >> no, they don't. he still doesn't -- he still hovers in the 20s as your poll showed this morning which means that at least 70% of the base is not ready to embrace his candidacy. in addition, romney has not investeded heavily in iowa, either. he's very heavily invested in new hampshire. but he's been leery of iowa. if he doesn't get in there and play hard, someone will win iowa, and it probably won't be him. and that will automatically create a platform for cain or some alternative, if perry can turn his campaign back on, gain more traction, could be him. so it is not over. >> peter, play historian for me here a little bit. the -- and i don't just say that because of the gray hair. >> thank you so much. >> you've made an example --

>> getting this -- >> give me an example of someone who got elected to the presidency where the base never fell in love with them. >> well, in terms of the base falling in love, i think in the end they always have to fall in love. and i don't think that we have an example of somebody where the base didn't end up. i mean, nixon ended up definitely as part of -- >> but i mean, i think that's the last time i can think -- nixon in '68, they weren't in love with him in the primaries. >> no, but he is acceptable and romney is acceptable. and i think this story that michael and jean are telling you, it's a long way from here to there. and what you really want to be listening to is the voters, rather than all of the inside chatter. and the voters are trying to tell us something. we're unhappy, we look at romney, he's acceptable. but we're not in love. >> and, you know, here's another poll number that we threw out there. among republicans, michael steele was -- we were asking -- given a choice, what kind of candidate, what kind of nominee.

67% -- best chance of getting obama, 31%. and that's usually -- that is always more standard and republican primaries. democrats are usually more open to electability than republicans. >> we want someone who that when i look, he's right there with me in the trenches, going to fight or she's going to fight for me. but this is the fact and the reality. that number really means nothing. because when they get to the polls, then it becomes about electability. the closer we get to those moments where you're standing in that booth, then it comes down to, okay, who is going to have the best chance to actually carry forward the fight? >> you really think that voters will be pundits when they get into the voting booth? >> i think voters have a tendency -- >> i know. peter is moaning. i hear you. >> peter is moaning because he's looking at an old model. what i'm saying, based on what i've seen on the streets of this country, having spent two years out of america -- >> i was going to say, i want to support michael in these interviews, peter. these transcripts i'm reading. the voters all with herman cain were very aware of what's going on in this race.

well, i didn't like this rick perry thing. i thought i was going to ly like him, but -- they're paying a lot of attention. he's right. >> they are paying attention. but i think in the end, they vote their heart, rather than necessarily their mind. who is going to win. >> michael, peter, jean, stick around. we have more on the other side. trivia time. who was once spotted reading a book during a white house state dinner? is the answer, amy carter who was 9 at the time of the carter administration's first state dinner. mexican president jose lopez mentioned in his toast that amy was reading right at the table. we'll be right back. you're watching "the daily rundown" capital one's new cash rewards card

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bring back our panel. i'm going to put up the primary calendar for everybody. iowa is on january 3rd. nevada said they are going on january 14th. south carolina january 21st.

the missing element is when will new hampshire go? michael steel, you created this mess. >> we had a solution, but nobody in the early states will listen. >> we all sat down and agreed. everybody was at the table. >> was bill gardener at the table? >> everybody was at the table. we had the connections inside and outside the building. everyone agreed this would be the formula. one state decided we want to jump the gun. i get that. but the reality of it is, i don't care when new hampshire goes. no one cares. just do the thing so we can get the process going. all this jumping back and forth is crazy. if you want it in december, put it in december. >> that's what he says. he wants a buffer in between nevada and himself. >> why? >> because he's not done it before. delaware violated the buffer. but peter heart, play 30,000

feet. if you cross the calendar barrier, if we go into 2011 in this one, this will end it. this will finally where the two parties will say enough, new hampshire. enough, iowa. you have lost it. >> i agree. this is insane. it's one person's whim. to be perfectly honest, the voters could care less. they don't want to be in december. they want the calendar year. >> iowa, from what i understand, the republicans are fearful that if they went in december, it could cost the caucuses. this is a financial hit for the state. so they created a window for new hampshire to go either the 7th or the 10th to provide a decent amount of time of campaigning. but if they go in december, won't it be easy for candidates to say i'm not ramped up yet. i'm going to skip it. >> i don't think the candidates

can do that. >> why not? it's an easy call to make. we don't have time. >> i still think those early indicators are important in terms of gaining momentum. but i still believe that there's going to be so much pressure on new hampshire to move it, but no matter what happens, what florida did has scrambled the race in so many ways in terms of how much money they've got to raise. the experts i talked to this week said they have to have $20 million in the bank by december because they don't have time to fundraise in between. even if they get a bump, they don't have time to collect the bump money to run to the next one. >> peter heart, even for a week, you need $6 to $10 million. >> it's going to be tough. it's expensive. >> the national primary is coming. it's coming. we virtually had one in 2008.

>> it has to be incumbent upon the candidates ignoring new hampshire and iowa. stiffen their backbone. >> map the chart and do your thing. it's about getting dollars in the door. it's not a process about empowering the voters. >> i do personally love me some iowa though. >> chainless plug. >> bloomberg has an early look at a report out of texas that gives us more details about perry and his relationship. >> it's an interesting piece. i'm halfway through it.

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until i've helped every driver in america save hundreds on car insurance. well i'm out of the parking lot. that's a good start. geico, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent, or more on car insurance. good morning. i'm chris jansing. there's a new leader in the race. a surprising new poll. but will those numbers in the long run matter? president obama is clearly winning the money race. he's raised $70 million in the third quarter. that's between the national committee and his campaign. but in that nbc poll, herman cain is leading mitt romney and rick perry. take