the flipper ain't no gipper. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. leading off tonight, flip-flop the front-runner. mitt romney's become the real-life version of the cartoon that republicans created in the image of john kerry. remember that one? romney's latest 180 on legislation in ohio may have set a land speed record for policy reversals. but it's been the only latest example of romney's tendency to tell whoever he 'talking to what he thinks they want to hear. romney flip-flopping has even

allowed the perry and obama campaigns to find common ground -- exposing mitt. also, how bad has rick perry been in the gop debates? this bad, so bad he's in single digits and he might adopt his texas strategy of avoiding debates. can you get nominated if you're scared to debate? if you duck mitt, can you beat barack? we'll ask the "hardball" strategist that one tonight. plus, there's an anti-abortion vote up for debate in mississippi that would declare a fertilized human egg to be a person. opponents hope a victory for the personhood amendment in mississippi will lead to similar laws in other states. we'll hear from both sides. and which candidate's staff put out this memo about the candidate, do not speak to him unless you are spoken to? who is this, grandpop? we'll get you the answer to that one. and let me finish with the refusal of the tea party to let government function. we start with mr. flip and mr. flop. they both go by the name of mitt romney.

mark halperin is time magazine editor at large and john heilemann is "new york" magazine's national political columnist. gentleman, let's take a look at this full screen from "the boston globe's" glenn johnson. he wrote this about the concerns about romney. "in recent weeks, mitt romney has given fresh life to the longtime political complaint that he lacks a core. the criticism has been leveled anew both by rival democrats and republicans, who may be hyperbolic as they work to dethrone him as a gop presidential front-runner. the consistency of the complaint, though, underscores a major challenge the former massachusetts governor faces, if he hopes to win his party's nomination and unseat president obama just over a year from now. can voters still getting to know him grow to trust what he says?" i go to you, mark, on that question. it doesn't seem to be the most important issue outside of ohio as it is inside ohio, this flip-flopping on this anti-union legislation, but it does mark more trouble.

>> if this election is about whether mitt romney put his dog on the roof of his car in a family vacation, if it's about his change of positions from candidate in massachusetts to a national candidate, he can't win the nomination and he can't win the general election. if it's about the economy and his competence and his usual on-message pattern on the big issue that voters do care about, i think he's got a decent chance to win the election. he'll never live down the reputation of being a flip-flopper. it will be seared in forever. he has to win despite that, he can't erase it. making additional mistakes like he did in ohio, i'm no genius, but it's not helpful. >> the most recent flip-flop, as you mentioned, mark, romney said he supported ohio governor john kasich's law to limit collective bargaining in the state. that law to limit collective bargaining is up for a referendum on the ohio ballot in two weeks. but on tuesday romney visited the ohio gop phone bank, where callers were urging voters to back the law. and even on the way to the phone bank, where he was out to support it, he didn't sound very supportive of the cause he was going to support.

it's very strange, this one. let's listen. >> i'm not speaking about the particular ballot issues. those are under the people of ohio, but i support the effort of the governor to rein in the scale of government. i'm not terribly familiar with the two ballot initiatives, but certainly supportive of the republican party's efforts. >> i'm not too supportive of ballot initiatives. yesterday romney tried to clean up the mess. let's listen to this version. >> i fully support governor kasich's, i think it's called question two in ohio, fully support that. what i was referring to, i know there are other ballot questions there in ohio, and i wasn't taking a position on those. one of them, for instance, relates to health care and mandates. with regard to question two, which is the collective bargaining question, i am 110% behind governor kasich and in support of that question. >> that was a squirrely moment there. and politicians have to adjust to strange questions, but there he was on the way to the phone

bank, which is supporting the initiative. he obviously had it on his schedule to go there. his staff must have told him where -- isn't he? >> got some reporting on this. he was in ohio to do fund-raisers, he was not planning to do that event. he had no press office, press official with him. he wasn't briefed for questions. he got dragged there by his state chairman. >> where was the state chairman dragging him to? as he understood it? >> a victory center for calls not just on that ballot measure, but on everything that's on the ballot in ohio. so he wasn't prepared. that was bad staff work, his campaign acknowledges, and he didn't focus on that one question. >> but he did know -- well, the question was on that question. >> he said -- they say he didn't hear it that way. >> i know they say that. they would say that. >> but the conventional wisdom is, he did this because now the ballot measure is unpopular and it looks -- it's popular and looks like it's going to pass. >> he would be a lot more cheerful about saying the yeah if he knew people would agree with him. >> that is not their account of

what happened. and it is true he was not scheduled to do that event. that was thrown on at the last moment. bad staff work, didn't prepare him for the possibility, familiarize him with the ballot measures. i will say, if you're mitt romney and you have the history you do, you pay a much bigger price. >> it reminds me of prince charles visiting some island out in the pacific, and i don't know the social mores here, and then he starts to dance with the people, and the working people in ohio. >> this is one way in which he's improved a lot. this is one way he hasn't -- >> new guinea is the place i was thinking of. >> >> he is still very awkward and uncomfortable in situations where human interaction is involved. >> electioneering. >> that is a picture that looked a lot like the old mitt romney. he looked uncomfortable trying to walk it back. it's a lot of these things, the flip-flopping, a lot of the stories from 2008. the presumption has been they're

priced into the stock with mitt romney. people already know these things. i think what we see with rick perry bringing up the illegal immigrant gardener story at the debate, and then this story, his rivals from his nomination think there is traction from bringing up things from 2008 that we thought were kind of dead and buried. and he's personally not reacting to that well on either one of those stories. >> the word flip-flop itself is almost like happy talk. it's almost like, oh, the frisky guy, he switches from one -- these are fairly fundamental positions he switches. let's take a look at the notable exampling of that. one, he was pro-choice when he ran for the senate against ted kennedy, meaning, support abortion rights. now he's for outlawing abortion. that to me is a fairly fundamental flip-flop. i think it's more important to call it that. he championed his state's healthcare program as a model that could be used nationwide. now he says his plan wouldn't work across the country. that's fairly fundamental. in '94, he promised to be more

pro-gay rights than senator ted kennedy, and now says marriage between a man and woman is the only way it goes. i'm sorry. i think we're friendly saying it's just a flip-flop. he seems to take dramatic turns of opinion and belief on major issues. >> on abortion, he admits that he did that. he's not the only person to ever do that in public life. the elder president bush did the very same thing. other people have done it. on those other two issues, i think there's a little more nuance. for instance, on the gay rights thing, when he said he would be better for gay rights than ted kennedy, his argument was, as a republican, i can get more done as a democrat. there's nuance to most of these. but i agree with you, on something like abortion, the fundamental change is so big, he hasn't explained -- >> let me -- >> if that -- >> let me -- let me the turn it on you, here, mark, because you are an analyst, not an opinion guy. would you -- when you write your next book, refer to mitt romney as a conviction politician? a conviction politician? >> unlikely.

>> okay, thank you. i think that's what we're getting at here. >> but it goes to you -- all these issues go to what is his biggest vulnerability, there is a perception, particularly among conservatives, that he is coreless. he's not someone who has firm beliefs, and certainly not conservative beliefs. if you want to look as to one explanation as to why mitt romney has been stuck at 25% nationally, at 25% or below in every state except for new hampshire, why done conservatives look for somebody else? they don't really believe he is a man of conviction. >> let's get to one of the most important books on politics in recent history, in your book, "game change," you write about the reputation romney had among his fellow republican contestants last time around. you say -- "huckabee says, i don't think romney has a soul." >> the common view in the party -- the two third are related. john has mentioned both. does it relate to people, and seen as being someone who has conviction sgh >> let's do -- the biggest threat to president obama's re-election in a person is mitt romney, to me.

>> we agree. >> that's probably the most credible person who could take him on in debate, four or five national debates. because the economic circumstances haven't turned around, that's how it would happen, right? >> yes. >> pretty simply, you say we're lying on the relying on the economy, this is the guy to do it. what does the recognition by all characters that he's not a man of conviction do to that prospect? >> it makes him vulnerable to what john kerry was vulnerable to, which is a very well-run, big-spending, incumbent campaign that makes it defined as, this guy's unacceptable. he's too coreless, too convictionless to win. if that's the way the race sets up, romney -- >> -- independent voter will hope that his flip will flop in their direction and he'll end up being a moderate. >> there is a definite look -- every democrat and independent we know looked to john mccain, when john mccain would say, i have a 30-year record of being pro-life, no one believed john mccain was pro-life, everyone thought he was winking, and that was a benefit for him in the general election. i think for romney, in some

respects, if he can get the nomination, there will be some number of voters who will look at him and say, he's really not that conservative. that's why i actually like him, the fact -- he had to say these things to get the republican nomination, but in fact, he is kind of moderate. he's a pragmatic, centrist kind of governor, and that's going to work to his advantage. in some ways, it could help him to be seen as coreless when it comes to a general election. >> one last question. say there's four factors going on next year this time of year, october, next year. the economy's getting a little better, as it looks like it might be now. a little better. romney's the nominee, he's seen as a flip-flopper still, and still a member of the mormon church, which is absolutely a matter of conviction for him. all those put together, will they discourage voters from conservatives from voting? >> let me get my ouija board? >> will it discourage voters -- >> i don't think so. i don't think we know all the variables that will be at play a year from now. enthusiasm on the right to beat the president is baked in the cake right now, and despite factors you listed, they will turn out to vote.

>> a little better economy, lds, and flip-flop. >> i totally agree with that. conservatives want to beat barack obama more than anything, and if this is the guy who gets the nomination, they will turn out for him, because they hate the president. >> and he'll be endorsed by every conservative in the country. >> they'll beat him. >> if they can. >> i think we have the lay of the land here. >> thank you, mark halperin. what's the name of the next book? just kidding. >> "game change 2." >> "gamier changier." >> thank you, john heilman and mark halperin. >> coming up, there's an anti-abortion measure on the ballot in mississippi that would actually declare a fertilized human egg to be a legal person. if it wins in mississippi, it could go national. we'll get to that next. it's an interesting way to address the abortion issue from the pro-life side. haven't seen it before, it might be a game changer. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc.

here's big news. president obama's standing among african-americans remains rock solid. "the new york times" debunks the conventional thinking out there that the black community is souring on the president and the polls prove it. a pew poll found that 95% of african-americans say they'd vote for president obama versus only 3% who favor mitt romney, of the african-americans. those numbers show no erosion of support compared to the totals obama racked up against mccain in 2008. we'll be right back.

welcome back to "hardball." it's one of the most radical anti-abortion measures to appear on a state ballot. on november 8th, this november 8th, mississippi voters will decide whether every fertilized human egg from the moment of conception should be treated as a person. that's an important label, because it would outlaw all abortions.

it would also make it harder for women to get in vitro fertilization procedures and other measures. they promise to spread their personhood moment to other states in the near future, including florida, michigan, and ohio, among others. according to "the new york times," that's all going to happen. supporters of the measure include both the republican and democratic candidates for governor in the state of mississippi. activists have canvassed house to house and paid for radio and tv ads to get the word out. here's one advertisement the group is using. let's watch it. >> our founding fathers guaranteed all persons life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. but who is a person? >> i am a person. >> i am a person. >> i am a person. >> i am a person. >> regardless of age, race, gender, and no matter how small, every human life has infinite

value and deserves protection under our laws. think about it. >> wow. well, the measure is so extreme, some anti-abortion activist organizations, even they have distanced themselves, fearful it would cause a backlash from federal courts. ken blackwell is the senior fellow at the family research counsel, which is backing the measure. mr. blackwell, i've had you on many times. i'm going to give you much time today to make your case. a person, a fertilized human egg, before it attaches to the uterine wall. what would protecting that person mean in terms of the use of an iud or a morning after pill, so-called, that would prevent it from attaching to a uterine wall? what would it do to that person, as you call it? it's very important for me to get the answer to that question, because that would mean that would apply to what some people say are legal rights for them, potential mothers. >> chris, chris, here is what we know. technology as well as public opinion has made it crystal

clear that what we have at the moment of conception is a small human being. it is not a glob of tissue. it is not something that can be easily dismissed, defined, and discarded. it is a human being. what we are pushing for, across the country, in ohio, in mississippi, is legislation that recognizes the human nature of that fertilized egg. the questions that you raise, in league with questions that have been raised about fertilization, you know, are questions that are not addressed in this legislation. there would be, i am sure, consistent arguments across the

body politics about the questions that you have raised. but what this legislation would do would be to recognize that what we are talking about at the moment of conception is a human being, and that would be consistent with science and consistent with a broad cross-section of public opinion. >> well, let me ask you about its implications, as you intend them to be. right now, in a human, a woman's cycle, there will be conception, caused by the joining of an egg with sperm. there will be such a fertilized egg. some of them attach to the uterine wall and develop into young babies. some do not attach. they simply go away. they wash away. would you consider the ones that don't attach, naturally, forget anything to do with artificial technology or science, would you

consider those fertilized eggs that don't attach to the wall to be people, people, persons? if they just go away? are they just human beings that have gone away and not been developed into babies? but you would consider them persons? >> they would be persons, yes, they would be. >> to what purpose do we do this? do we attach this reality? >> here's the reality. let me use something that some of the reporters who have been dealing with this have been addressing. and that is, ivf, in vitro fertilization. the reality is this, the science has moved us back to an appreciation that there has been a business model that has been used with these ivfs and not a human life model. you know, if you go back to louise brown, the first baby of in vitro fertilization, it was a very straightforward

proposition. one egg, one embryo, one baby. if you look at what's happening in germany right now, they are going back to one egg, you know, one embryo, one baby. what that suggests to me is that there is a debate, even within the in vitro fertilization medical community about life, when it, in fact, begins, and whether or not we should be using business models or whether we should recognize when human life begins and what we do is fight to give that human life every possibility of blossoming into a full, productive life. >> you know what i think? i've let you give your position. i think this is what we call in football an end run. i believe whatever else it is, it is an attempt to outlaw, ban the right of a woman to have an abortion, no matter what else you're talking about here, that will be the implication, under the law.

there's no other reason to go this direction. >> chris, chris -- >> that's why you're doing it. >> chris, i've been engaged for four decades in the pro-life movement. i am not a doctor -- >> and that's what this is. >> i am not a lawyer. i am not a doctor, i am not a lawyer. but i am one who believes in the human dignity of the human life. no different than the pope. no different than god blessing him, jerry falwell. no different than millions of men and women who have taken a stand for life. this is not an end run, this is not a game. this is a pro-life movement. >> and let me tell you my advice to you. if you want to stop the number of abortions in this country, because you're against abortion, tell young men to stop having unprotected sex with women, discourage the act that leads to unwanted pregnancies, help people get birth control procedures available to them, reduce the incidence in which people choose to have an abortion in a free country.

that would be my way of dealing with it. i do think that would be a good cause, and that's not going on. >> chris, i won't be insulted that you have presumed that i haven't been engaged in a multiplicity of movements. to reduce abortion. i won't be insulted you would make that assumption. >> i hope you won't, because that's what we hear -- they want to reduce the rights of people. >> you know me, chris, and you know that that's not the case. >> that's all i hear, though. thank you, ken blackwell. i heard your point of view, and i gave you mine. >> we're going to be joined by michelle goldberg. she's written about the mississippi measure. michelle, tell me about the purposes of this amendment in the mississippi constitution. is it to simply, in effect, outlaw a woman's right to have an abortion? >> well, it's absolutely meant to ban abortion, all abortion. even in cases of rape or incent, in cases where a woman's life is threatened.

i think it's significant that mr. blackwell wouldn't say that things like an iud or the morning-after pill or the ivf wouldn't be allowed under this measure, because it wouldn't. once you say that a fertilized egg is a human being, like you or me, you change -- i mean, you're not just kind of changing -- you're not just changing the law in the way it affects abortion, you are radically changing the definition of pregnancy, which now the medical definition of pregnancy is when a fertilized egg implants in the uterine wall, and you are going -- it's going to have all of these second order effects, not just on women who are trying to prevent pregnancy, but on women who are absolutely desperate to get pregnant. some of the women who i have spoke to, who are kind of the most panicked about this measure, are infertile women in mississippi, who know that this

is going to radically curtail their chances of getting pregnant with ivf. >> i just wonder how it squares with the writings of the constitution, and people who believe in the original intent. life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness relates to people who are alive, living, and born, pursuit is a word, an active verb. i don't think you would associate that with a fetus. and liberty is a word you would apply to people who are alive and born. i don't know what it means to say an unborn person has liberty. i don't know how you could possibly catch up, in its original intent, to what these people are talking about. >> and one thing, when you say an unborn person or a fertilized egg has liberty, you're saying that a woman doesn't. because, again, what we're talking about here is, you know, these people pretend to be kind of small government libertarians, it's hard to imagine a more kind of radical intrusion into people's lives. you know, they seem to want government out of our medicare, but in our uteruses.

this is -- you know, forced pregnancy, forced pregnancy and dictating to women the kind of birth control they can use, the kind of help that they can seek out when they find themselves unable to get pregnant, it shows such a profound disrespect for women's liberty and women's autonomy and women's ability to make their own decisions. >> i think they ought to have those million people marches for life against young men having unprotected sex with young women with no intention of having a child. you want to stop abortion, you stop the circumstances that lead to people who feel they have to have one. this is so logical and they don't do it. they just want to prevent people from having a free will at a certain point, is what they're really up to. anyway, thanks, michelle. we'll do more report on this. i think it's an end run on the constitution. up next, the raging cajun unloads on the republican field. catch carville doing what carville does next, he's a smart guy, in the sideshow, up next on msnbc. looking good! you lost some weight.

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back to "hardball." now for the sideshow. first up, so much for sugar coating it. you didn't expect democratic strategist james carville to be heaping praise on any of the republican presidential candidates, but he's now throwing verbal punches at the front-runners like you've never seen. let's hear carville's strategy for figuring out when mitt romney's about to make another one of those well-known flip-flops we talked about earlier. >> the man is a serial wind sock. anytime that you turn around, it's something else. and once he uses any kind of adjective in front of it, you know he's getting ready to flip-flop. if he's very committed to it, that means he's going to change positions. and if he's 110% for something, that means he's changing positions. >> here he is on the subject of rick perry. >> the best thing rick perry could go for himself and his family and his friends is just

get out of the race and go back to texas. this man is evidently not up to this. he had plenty of chances to do it. he can't debate, he can't give a speech. he can't hold a position paper, he can't go on television. >> i love the bottom line, the way he talks. carville and perry can agree on one thing, debates are not rick's strong suit. next up, put the birther talk to bed. well, rick perry, he welcomed the obama birth certificate hysteria back into the conversation, as you know, this week, and later insisted he was just joking. but at least one of other members of the 2012 field has had enough of this talk. >> when i see one of my colleagues, governor perry, who starts talking about birtherism again, i cringe. i say, as a party, if we're going to win this election, we've got to focus on the issues that are germane for the american family. it's been settled, folks. it's been settled. the president's a citizen of the united states. i mean, how much more do we have to talk about it? let's move on to the real issues of the day.

>> do you think that did the trick? only until donald trump again stated that perry's original remarks were, quote, good for him, in the republican primary just a few hours later. good for him. thanks, donald. up next, how's this for a profile in courage. rick perry plans to duck debates. again, how's he going to debate obama if he can't debate romney? you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. let me tell you about a very important phone call i made. when i got my medicare card, i realized i needed an aarp... medicare supplement insurance card, too. medicare is one of the great things about turning 65, but it doesn't cover everything. in fact, it only pays up to 80% of your part b expenses. if you're already on or eligible for medicare, call now to find out how an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company, helps cover some of the medical expenses... not paid by medicare part b. that can save you from paying up to thousands of dollars... out of your own pocket.

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welcome back to "hardball." well, rick perry's got a new strategy. it involves a lot less debating and a lot more one-on-one politicking.

in short, his so-called texas strategy amounts to the less you know about me, the more you'll like me. plus, it's been a rough week for marco rubio. his political biography is heavy on his personal story. he said he was the son of cuban exiles after castro grabbed cuba. turns out, he's more accurately the son of immigrants like so many other people who came here from latin america. tonight the strategists tackle these tough issues. steve mcmahon is a democratic strategist and john feehery is a republican strategist. let's go to john. we'll give you a chance to explain it. on saturday of a faith and freedom banquet in iowa, perry made light of his debate performances. let's listen to the man. >> we are not called to be perfect. if any of you have watched my debate performances over the last three or four times, you know i am far from perfect. >> you know, he's trying to make

light of that. on tuesday, perry said maybe doing the debates was a mistake. let's listen, he keeps moving in this direction. >> these debates are set up for nothing more than to tear down the candidates. it's pretty hard to be able to sit and lay out your ideas and concepts with a one-minute response. if there was a mistake made, it was probably ever doing one of the -- ever doing one of the campaigns when all they're interested in stirring it up between the candidates. >> yesterday perry's campaign manager said they were trying a new strategy -- we need to be spending time, particularly as the last entrant, with voters, doing town halls, retail politics, and local media in the early states." he added that perry would do the next scheduled debate on cnbc on november 9th, but would pick and choose after that. john, debates don't hurt everybody. i notice that herman cain is doing really well, thanks to the debates. mitt romney's doing really well thanks to the debate. it doesn't cut up everybody.

it's the guys who are not very good at it who do badly. >> you know, somebody once wrote in a book, to shine a spotlight on your problems, and i thought that's what rick perry was doing right there. >> it was bobby kennedy. thank you for that, sir. he's doing it there. he sure is. i can't talk, is a heck of a problem. >> he's not much of a debater, no doubt about it, and i think that's a fairly smart strategy to turn away from that. most importantly for him, go back to a texas strategy that did work. he's a much better retail politician than he is a debater. and the other problem is, these debates have completely defined him. he's not been able to get any real earned media out of anything else. he finally laid out a tax plan last week and got some good press on that. all the other stuff, most of the bad press he's been getting has been from debates. what the heck. you've got to mix it up a bit. you might as well announce you're not going to do every debate they ask you to do. >> he behaves strangely in debates, with that big collar of his. sometimes i think it's going to retract -- his head is going to retract into the collar like a

turtle. he doesn't seem to like being there physically. >> you know what this is, chris, it's the strategy, it's the rope-a-dope strategy without the rope. >> i like that. >> john is absolutely right. you hang a lantern on it. if people are concerned you're not quite ready for primetime, the answer is to give them some reason that you think you are. the answer is not to stop showing up in primetime to prove their points. >> let's do tactics. people tell me there's a couple other candidates. republicans don't like the front-runner. they're always looking for somebody else to put up there, because they don't like the person who's up there. newt gingrich, people tell me, is going to start going well into double digits now, if there's no perry in the debate showing up. he'll just take his place as the right-winger against romney. will that happen? i'm asking you an open question. >> i don't think so, chris. i think this is still pretty much a two-person race, as romney versus perry.

at some point in time, the voters are going to say, we're not going to take a flyer on herman cain anymore and go with rick perry who's conservative. i think that's what mitt romney's got to be careful of. >> you've already done that, right, john? >> what's that? >> you've already done what you just said? you've already decided on romney. >> well, you know, i'm unaffiliated right now. >> he's following. >> okay. i know where you're headed. i know where there's more opportunity ahead with romney. nothing wrong with that. anyway, marco rubio made his personal story as the son of exiles as a big part of his biography and here's an ad from his senate campaign. let's listen to it. >> it's not something i read about in a book. as the son of exiles, my parents were born into a society pretty much like every other? the world, where if you're not from the right family or with another enough money, you can only go so far. >> well, there it is. today's politico reports that rubio may face criticism from the hispanic community outside florida. it quotes the founder of a group

saying he's a laughingstock in the southwest, because people discovered he wasn't telling the truth about his political cuban exile story. they are saying, at the end of the day, he's just like us. his mom and dad came here, they migrated because of economic reasons, just like the rest of us. so many latin americans come here to get jobs and opportunity, we know that story, and most of the cubans came because castro kicked them out of the country. he wanted a communist country. rubio's family came here before castro. he's much more like a regular latin american immigrant, a fine thing to be, but not the same thing as being an anti-communist freedom fighter, which is what he sold himself as. >> it's not the same. and i think he's been inelegant and inartful in his language. because he said at different times he's the son of an immigrant and said at different times, he's the son of exiles. obviously if people are from cuba and -- >> he said he came here after castro came in. >> i know, i know. and frankly, there have been

some things that have been said on his behalf on his website and other places that are very, very clear. there's some things he said himself that are much less clear. and i think it's a big problem for him. i'm not suggesting it otherwise, but i'm not sure that he was a systemic liar. >> is he out as a vp nominee? >> i think he's out in this cycle. >> john, do you think he's out as a vp nominee? >> chris, let me say this is the biggest bogus story. this group is a pro-amnesty group in arizona. he's not out as a vp. if we put him on the ticket as a vice presidential candidate, it will be a huge boost to the ticket. marco rubio is a star. he's going to continue to be a star. this reminds me of what the democrats tried to do with miguel estrada. they did knock him out, and that's what they're trying to do. >> were his statements accurate about coming here in '59? is his website accurate about saying he came after castro or not? yes or no. >> it's a bog gus story. who cares? >> who cares?

why'd he say it? >> it's a bogus story. >> no, bogus is -- >> john, who cares -- >> the cuban community doesn't care. >> they're all circling the wagons. that is not exactly a truth test. you know what bogus is, is his website and all his statements. go check media matters, quote after quote after quote saying i came here after castro. >> oh, so what? marco rubio a great candidate and he'll be a great vice presidential candidate. >> john, john -- >> he's allowed to say it. he's a great guy. that's what the shows about, people arguing inarguable positions. up next, herman cain's risen to the top of the polls, but can his campaign withstand the scrutiny that comes with being a front-runner? this guy is more fun than any of them. this is "hardball" on msnbc. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] sitting. waiting. hoping. that's a recipe for failed investing. open an e-trade account and open doors, seize opportunities, take action with some of the most powerful yet easy-to-use trading tools on the planet all built to help you maximize the potential of every dollar you invest. successful investing isn't done by throwing ideas against the wall and hoping.

it's done by lowering your costs and raising your expectations by using unbiased research and powerful screeners to build a diversified portfolio with stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and every etf sold. and we'll help you every step of the way. with 5-star research and free education covering everything from the basics to advanced investing strategies. start now and we'll give you up to $500 and let you trade free for 60 days. visit our website, call us, open an account. e-trade. investing unleashed. well, mitt romney leads or ties for first place in the first four states with caucuses or primaries, according to the new polls from cnn. let's get the numbers from the "hardball" scoreboard. in iowa, romney at 24%, cain at 21. that's within the margin of error. ron paul's down at 12, at third. in new hampshire, big win for romney, still with a big lead,

40%. he's moving up. still well ahead of cain, at 13. it looks like he owns that state. it's a statistical tie in south carolina. this is the big one to watch. romney's at 25, cain's at 23. i think that's the dealmaker for one or the other guy. and in florida, romney's at 30, cain's at 13. newt gingrich and perry tie for third place at 9. romney, four for four right now. i think his brother, jeb, helped him in florida. we'll be right back.

we're back. now that herman cain's at or

near the top of the polls, we've all seen that, he's going to have to get used to greater scrutiny and being pounded by all sides. the "new york times" talked with former cain staffers who say his campaign is chaotic. "the times" also was told, "everything we tried. to do was like pulling teeth to get it accomplished. that's a a former staffer in iowa who asked for anonymity, of course. "i've never been in a job as frustrating as this one. we couldn't get an answer on anything. everything was fly by the seat of your pants." ron reagan's a political commentator, author, and of course dana millbanks, a columnist with the "washington post." dana, first to you. it seems he's get hg some attention he probably wants, he's the front-runner. is he the real front-runner? has he dislodged romney? >> i don't think so, chris. in fact, the numbers you read just a few minutes ago show that. but he has this -- he's polling well nationally. but the election isn't won nationally. it's won in those early primary states, where romney is really very strong. and i think what you have with cain is he's become this phenomenon, this flavor of the month -- >> was he just on a book tour? >> he was in the south. >> that's what he's -- it's working. >> it's going to make some money for him.

>> no, but let me get ron in on this. let me show you something. he's talking about having a bullseye on his back. let's take a look at this. here it is. "i don't know how many of you saw that last debate. i didn't realize that the bullseye on my back was that big. they came after me like i had talked about their mama." what is going on here? it's sort of regular street corner talk. but he's like trying to set it up so if they go after him there's something wrong with them, he should be sort of immunized against attack. >> well, he'd better be careful what he wishes for. if he wants to be a front-runner in this campaign he's going to draw more scrutiny and that scrutiny will find him wanting, i'm afraid. there is real suspicion here that herman cain is not actually running for president, he's on a book tour. he hasn't built the sort of organizations in the early states that you would expect a serious presidential candidate to do. and he's not acting like a serious presidential candidate

in many ways. he's blowing off fund-raisers and all sorts of things. >> you know what he's good at? and dana, you know what he's really good at? not being mitt romney. >> yes, that's right. >> which is the main role he's been cast for, dana. whether he ever asked for it or not, he is not mitt romney. and anybody who ain't mitt romney is going to get a lot of people saying yeah, he's the guy i want for president. >> that's true. and he's certainly not barack obama. i think there's a consensus that he's not ready for prime time. but you know, he is absolutely ready for late night. so he's been very valuable in the entertainment factor. >> one of the back benchers, rick santorum, who believes in what he says about abortion rights, has gone after him. here's an ad from rick santorum, the former senator from pennsylvania, going after cain for his answer that he gave rather directly about the issue of a family member if they were raped where would he be on abortion. let's listen. >> it comes down to it's not the government's role or anybody else's role to make that decision. secondly, if you look at the

statistical incidence, you're not talking about that big a number. so what i'm saying is it ultimately gets down to a choice that that family or that mother has to make. >> the "washington post" described cain's position as "an essentially pro-abortion rights position." and brian fisher of the american family association said, "cain's position could have come right out of the planned parenthood playbook." herman cain. the more we learn, the more concerned we become. >> wow. you know, ron, herman cain sounds like my dad used to talk. yeah, i'm pro life, but it's up to the woman. >> exactly. >> i'm not sure he's unlike so many people -- i mean, he's pro choice. but he thinks he's pro life because that sounds better. >> that's exactly right. he has to be pro life because he's running as a republican here. listen, he's not a serious political candidate. but the fact that we're talking about herman cain as a potential front-runner in the republican

primaries here points to the paucity of the republican field. i mean, i guess if you squint your eyes real hard, mitt romney looks like he could maybe sort of be president. but none of the other people in this fight look like they belong anywhere near the oval office. it's really striking. >> last word from you. would you agree with that? this is a weak field. >> well, unbelievably. and i'm waiting for rick santorum to make -- maybe gary johnson. we're about at the end here. >> i've watched the luck of barack obama all my life. since he started, rather. he's had no real opponents except, what, alan keyes when he ran for the senate. hillary took the wrong side of the war. mccain was late in his career, a little late for the race. and this guy, might be lucky to pull this off and have the biggest dunce. thank you, ron reagan, thank you, dana milbank. when we return, the real reason the proofl regulate of congress is so dirt low right now. here's a hint. it starts with t. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc.

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let me finish tonight with this. here's how government's supposed to work in this country. you have an election. one party wins, the other party loses. both get the message and do what they're supposed to do. republicans won the 2010 congressional elections. they were supposed to come to washington and make a deal with the democrats, one favorable to their side, and the people who voted for them but a deal nonetheless. democrats lost the 2010 congressional elections.

they were supposed to come back to washington, acknowledge the results of the election and agree to a deal with the republicans who won it. that means carving a deal that favors the republican position while not giving it all away. this is how deals should be made between the two parties. they should favor the party that just won the election. this is how ronald reagan and tip o'neill cut the deal that saved social security back in 1983. the tea party-led house of representatives has refused to deal. it refused to any possible bipartisan deal by insisting that the debt ceiling not be raised unless the democrats buckled to a big spending cut without a nickel in higher taxes. there is room in american politics for right as well as left. for that is the way we get a consensus that reflects the will of the american people. the tea party republicans rejected a consensus. they deserve the whack they're now getting in the polls. 9% of the country approves of the job congress is doing. got it, mr. and mrs. tea party? you are less popular, not just less than jimmy carter, not just