this will happen. >> i agree, dylan. look, if a marine corps veteran and a tea partyier and an occupier can all be fighting for the same thing, that's good. >> in solidarity, i am dylan ratigan and "hardball's" up right now. saving cain. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews. up in new york, leading off tonight, damage control. let's see how far herman cain's responses to that sexual harassment story have evolved in just one day. first from the, the story is false, to, there were allegations, but they were false, to, i don't know if there was any money paid to, i don't know anything about an investigation to, here's the gesture i made that led to the allegation to, why, yes, i

remember a discussion of a settlement. if you want a lesson on how to keep a story alive, herman cain just gave it to us. the abrupt turns in the cain story are just the latest embarrassment to republicans thrown on the defensive. they've got rick perry's flubs, mitt romney's flip-flops, michele bachmann's collapse, and now republicans are worried they may ultimately blow this thing. is it possible that this clown show may hand the election to barack obama? and look who's become president obama's most importanç political partner, secretary of state hillary clinton. she's doing what no one else on the democratic side is doing openly and forcefully, defending the president. and if you don't have anything nice to say, former bachmann campaign manager, ed rollins has more harsh words for his one-time candidate. that's in the sideshow tonight. and my new book, "jack kennedy: elusive hero," comes out today to bookstores and to amazon. let me finish with a key lesson for president obama that

he could learn from president kennedy. we begin with herman cain's spin cycle, if you will. al alex burns writes for politico, the organization that broke this story, and dana milbank is a columnist for "the washington post." let me go to you, alex, first off with, this whole thing, americans for herman cain, the cain super pac, just sent out a fund-raising e-mail, there it is. the subject line, "don't let the media lynch another black conservative." now we're getting that particular spin, if you will. we're getting a little less information as time goes on today about what were the charges, we may never get the information there. how does this evolve politically, say, if you're looking at it from the outside, as you are? right now, looking at the story, does this die of atrophy? does it not effect the conservative voters who are voting in these primaries and caucuses? what? what's your take? >> chris, herman cain has now had two full days to clear up the questions surrounding this story. and i think as you detailed just

now, he has left in a lot of ways more questions than answers. so i think until we get some more clarity on exactly what kind of settlement he may have been aware of or why he first said he wasn't aware of one, then later sort of miraculous remembered that he was aware of some financial details -- >> yeq but let me get to a tougher point. let me ask you a tougher point as a journalist. i know that's the story we'd like to get information, we're curious, but let me ask you the toughest question in the business. so what? does this affect his voting base? does this affect the people on the right side of the republican party who have to pick a nominee to beat mitt romney? does this affect them, that you can tell? >> well, i think that herman cain, more than any other candidate in this race, has staked his campaign on his personality and his character. and i think we're going to see in the next round of polls and his next trip to iowa at the end of this week whether voters are still having the same response to him that they did a week ago. >> do you think there's a character issue here, meaning, like, does it say he's a good guy or a bad guy as opposed to,

he certainly did something that caused people to bring these allegations. would you say you're sure? is there an undercurrent of a story that reporters haven't reported yet that suggests a real character problem? >> well, a number of republicans i've spoken to in the last day have said that whatever may have happened back in the 1990s that resulted in those settlements at the national restaurant association, what raises questions for them now is the fact that cain can't seem to get his facts straight on what happened, which raises questions certainly about honesty. >> yeah, about the ability to speak in public too. da dana, my friend, he's always been really smart about how to use his brains. the guy's a smart guy, he knows how to get a point across. he hasn't seem to have decided on whether he knows something that makes him look better than this story or the story right now is better than reality. that's what we don't know? >> chris, if you look through the usual prism, this has been a pr disaster. this is textbook in how you don't deal with one of these things. but i don't think that we can look at herman cain through this

typical prism, and that is, the people supporting him are supporting him precisely because he's not like everybody else in this race, particularly mitt romney, particularly barack that's why he's using this for fund-raising. that's why his campaign says, and i think it's plausible, he raised $250,000 off of this last night. people are going to rally -- his supporters are going to rally to his defense, simply because it's perceived as the media, as the elite going after him. >> so you're saying that his people give him the benefit of the doubt? >> more than that -- >> they don't think it's something that really brings down his character? that he's not a sexual bully or something like that? you don't think they believe that? >> no, if he were to admit that he's been sexual harassing men and women, perhaps, that might change things. but in this sort of story -- >> what did you just say? you've been flipping, right? >> no, i'm not, chris. if somebody were to bring out something that would question his conservative -- social conservative bona fides, that's one thing. but if it's this sort of thing, the people, the 25% of iowans

who are supporting herman cain do not care about these sexual harassment allegations. i think we can say that with confidence. >> we'll see. i think alex has got a good point too. let's look at the polling. i'm not sure it's going to move down or up. here's cain's story on whether or not there was a settlement, meaning money paid to his accusers, and that story seems to have evolved. let's see what he's been saying. >> if the restaurant association did a settlement, i am not even -- i wasn't even aware of it. i am unaware of any sort of settlement. i hope it wasn't for much, because i didn't to anything. i was aware that an agreement was reached. the word settlement versus the word agreement, you know, i'm not sure what they called it. yes, there was some sort of settlement or termination and i don't even know what the contents of that was. we ended up settling for what would have been a terminationç

settlement. three months' salary or something like that. >> let me go to alex. it seems to me that he's a business man. he's like mitt romney, used to dealing with the business press, alex, not with us, okay? it's a different kettle of fish. i was just talking to karen finney, a democratic consultant, who said the business press can simply issue a statement and move on. with the political press, we're not satisfied with that. isn't that a fair estimate of this guy's inability to deal with something which has become a ball of wax for this guy, if that's the right word? >> well, sure, chris. and i would point out that for most of this year, cain has learned from the political press in his experience as a lower tier presidential candidate, that if you mess up verbally but keep talking, you can usually talk your way out of it. that's how he handled it when he said, at first that he wouldn't want muslims in his cabinet and then backtracked on that. that's how he tried to handle just last month some muddled statements he made about his position on abortion. this is a much more serious issue because it involves legal

questions, it involves character questions. it's not just about how -- >> he's smart. it's like, you can't keep erasing the blackboard and starting over. dana milbank, you're a funny guy, but i'll tell you, the republican party -- we're going to get to it in the next segment. this is a revolving development for them. he's their front-runner right now. whatever else we say about the other candidates, they're not doing as well as this guy's done. he's probably the most successful republican candidate this year. and here he is in a mess that he can't seem to get out of. does he not have access to the brains in the republican party. are they watching him go downhi downhill? are people like karl rove and bill kristol enjoying this because they want a finer, more sophisticated candidate? is that what we're watching ç here? >> sure. i think a lot of people will be relieved, and i doubt have many people republicans in this town think that with this scandal or without this scandal that herman cain is going to be the republican nominee. there's just too many reasons

they don't want to give that gift to president obama. but this man has shown an ability to weather things, the dramatic change on abortion, the gitmo, the swapping of terrorists, the electrified border fence. these sorts of things could have killed any normal politician, and this mans show an extraordinary ability to hold on, not to the majority of the electorate, but a very substantial portion of pinpoiit. >> who do you want to sit next to on a long airplane flight? i would still like to meet this guy. i think mitt romney would be somewhat unsurprising. i think the same would be true of newt gingrich or bachman. i think this guy would be an interesting person. let me get back to you, alex, on covering this guy and his popularity. you mentioned the polls are going to tell us a lot. do you have any kind of horse sense or gut sense, seat of the pants estimate, are we sure he's going to go down in the polls? look at what happened today in fund-raising. this guy had his best fund-raising day ever in the

last 24 hours. >> well, chris, what i would say to that is, i think we've clearly seen, since this story broke sunday night, that there is a core of herman cain supporters that is totally undeterred by whatever new information comes out. but i'm not sure that group of people is the full 20 to 25% that he's polling in places like iowa and south carolina. there's a good number of those people who probably know about -- as much about herman cain as hay did nine months ago when he was an obscure figure. >> here cain said his campaign was being sabotaged. this isç where it plays into ts fund-raising letter. if he's going to be, or portray himself, let's get that straight, as another clarence thomas, as an african-american being pilloried by the politically correct press, i'm sure that's how they're going to portray the people on this side of the world. let's listen. >> obviously, someone is encouraging them to bring it up now, because i'm doing so well

in this republican nomination. that's all i would say. why are you bringing it now? secondly, are you being used to try and help paint a cloud and help sabotage my candidacy? you and i both know why they're doing it. because someone does not like the fact that we are doing so well in this campaign and that i'm at or near the top of the polls consistently. i absolutely believe that this is an intended smear campaign. >> let me ask you this, alex. if you found out, as a source for your own organization, if it was another case and you found out that one of the campaigns had leaked this against him, would that become a political story in itself, like it was in the old days of the attack video? in the 1998 campaign? >> well, i think that certainly if another campaign were to step forward at this point and attack herman cain over this issue, that would instantly reshape the narrative that we're dealing with. >> what if they leak this story? you can't say, because it's one of your colleagues, you probably don't even know where this story

came from. it was broken by j-mar, but jonathan martin, but let me ask you, do you think it's a story as to where this story came from? is that a legitimate political question to ask? who is putting out the dirt on somebody else in the political party? >> i think people are willing to look into whatever kind of opposition research the campaigns may or may not be doing. but i want to address one thing that mr. cain said. he said this is a smear campaign orchestrated against him. one of the defining features of a smear campaign is usually the allegations are not true. and mr. çcain, in this situati, has confirmed a good deal of the report. >> it looks like "the post" has grabbed this story again. this story just broke on "the washington post" website. "the post" is reporting that one of the woman who accused herman cain of sexual harassment in the late 1990s wants to tell her side and has called on the national restaurant association to lift its confidentiality ban, according to her attorney. dana milbank, it's your paper, it's your story now. >> well, i'm pleased on behalf

of my paper. herman cain said when he was at the press club yesterday that he would not call on the restaurant association to release those. this will obviously increase the pressure to do so. we have now a hearing that herman cain's wife is going to be out there, giving an interview of her own. so clearly, this will not be the last time this probably shows up on your show, chris. >> why do you think it's relevant that his wife has something to say, if it's a workplace issue. why is that relevant? dana? >> i mean, that's just going to be part of the defense here. he's had six or seven different lines of defense here and he's going to keep using them until one of them works. i think the most powerful one is going to be, they are out to get me, they, the elite, they, the mainstream media, and you, my iowa supporters, need to stand up to that. >> well, we'll have an interesting witness on the stable, if this woman comes forward and makes statement based on personal experience, it's going to have a lot of power. thank you very much, alex burns, for that reporting, and thank you, dana mill milbank.

coming up, the republican clown show. how would you like to be a major republican brain right now thinking, my god, what's happening to our list of candidate qu candidates? we've got the flip-flopper, the flop, bachmann, who's gone, and our front-runner, cain, who's completely caught up in ness. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. 7 bl

the white house is going local. tv anchors now from nine local affiliates around the country spent the day at the white house today. each one got an interview with president obama and they all got a chance to interview another member of the cabinet or one member of the cabinet about the administration's push to create jobs. the nine affiliates shed some light on the obama re-election strategy. there's an emphasis on the southwest with phoenix, denver, and houston, crucial swing states like florida and virginia, and even omaha where the president picked up electoral college votes in 2008. look at arizona. are they really going for arizona? now there's the pickup state. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up!

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welcome back to "hardball." wasn't 2012 supposed to be the republican's big year, their big opportunity. but now president obama's own poll numbers remain low and a economy that hasn't really recovered, wasn't it supposed to be a gop cakewalk down to 1600 pennsylvania avenue. and a wile ago it looked like it. well, not so fast and not lately. apparently, there's just one big, fat problem out there. the people running for president on the republican side. as we just talked about, herman cain has had a rough 48 hours, and he's giving evolving responses to the politico story on previous sexual harassment allegations. but he's not the only one who's had a bad few days. look at mitt romney's flip-flopping around climate change. that won't go away. that flip-flopping label's not going away. and last week, romney got caught making two different statements about an issue. meanwhile, rick perry has plummeted in the polls and gave

a bizarre performance to put it lightly at that speech in new hampshire friday that's gone viral and has been parodied by late-night comedians. the best thing obama has going for him seems to be the field of contenders trying to beat him. bob shrum served as senior adviser to kerry in 2004, and ron reagan is author of "my father at 100." bob, thanks for joining us tonight. and i just wondered and wonder right now at how such an array of, well, it's a three-ring circus now with romney flipping like some act in a circus, with perry flopping and now the other guy flipping around like he doesn't know what's hit him, this is a three-ring circus from hell for the republicans, and these are their top the three contenders. >> well, it's a weak fieldç th ranges from the inauthentic to the absolutely incredible. look, romney in the last debate, in addition to being a flip-f p flip-flopper, sounded like the hall monitor that was trying to correct everybody. he's a guy who wants to run on

jobs, but made his money dismembering companies and destroying jobs. herman cain, listen, i could endorse him. you're right, president obama would win by a bigger margin than he won last time in herman cain were the republican nominee. rick perry, i think conservatives might take another look at, because of the -- of what's happened with cain. but the problem he's got, he may have left an indelible impression of incompetence in those early debates and unacceptability on social security. and as you just pointed out, he gave that bizarre speech. he'd have to become a candidate, not a comedian, if he's going to get a real serious look. >> this reminded me of a speech somebody might give after too many drinks at a company christmas party or a wedding. i'm not knocking him. i don't know if he had anything to drink or anything like it, but it seems crazy. here it is, just some highlights from that speech, which isn't going to go away because of the nature of the internet now. let's listen. >> we're kind of into those slogans, man. it's like, live free or die!

victory or death! bring it! they print anymore money over there in washington, gold's going to be good. 20% flat tax, put your deductions on there, send it in. the good news is, that little plan i just shared with you doesn't force the granite state to expand your tax footprint, if you know what i mean, like 9% expansion. >> i don't know, giddy times ten. that was exponential giddiness there, ron reagan. i don't no what he was imitating or what he wasç showing us abo himself that was previously hooded, let's put it that way. that was the butterfly rick perry, not the caterpillar. i'll tell you, i'm not sure why you want to put this dance on. >> it's true. this was a critical period for rick perry. he was trying to kind of re-introduce himself and re-tool his campaign, and he chose this week to go off his meds? >> or on the new ones, i tell

you. >> or maybe. yeah. it's extraordinary. but as you were saying before, given the opportunity the republicans have this election cycle, given where the economy is, et cetera, et cetera, it's extraordinary to me that they haven't been able to field a stronger field of candidates. and i don't know why that is. why haven't, you know, senior members of the senate decided to run for, you know, for president this time around? why are we left with this group of people, who as you pointed out, are woefully inadequate? >> and it all comes together, bobby. it looks to me like if you put a three-ring thing up there, like an old thomas crown affair screen with different pictures, you'd have this incredible performance. romney picks this week to flip all over the place about one of the things he's been constant on. here's an example of romney's penchant for flip-flopping. listen to what he said back in june compared to what he said

thursday on global warming. let's watch the moves. >> i believe based on what i read that the world is getting warmer. and number two, i believe that humans contribute to that. so i think it's important for us to reduce our emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases that may well be significant contributors to the climate change and the global warming that you're seeing. >> my view is that we don't know what's causing climate change on this planet, and the idea ofç spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce co2 emissions is not the right course for us. >> 180. and last week, romney's opponent jon huntsman put out an ad that went after romney for some of his high-profile political reversals. let's watch huntsman do what he does best, chop the heck out of romney. >> i believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. that i have consistently been pro-life. when he took office, the economy was in recession, and he made it worse. i didn't say that things are worse. look, i was an independent during the time of reagan/bush.

i'm not trying to are earn to reagan/bush. which is to pursue the strategy that ronald reagan pursued. . we do have tough gun laws in massachusetts. i support them. and i would protect our second amendment rights to bear arms. >> ron, it's impossible to miss the fact that this guy's made of political rubber. >> yeah, it's true. he's been on all sides of all issues, being all things to all people, i suppose. and it is going to come back and hurt him in the campaign. yet, he remains, i think, the inevitable nominee to have the republican party. this guy, who is a very weak candidate for a lot of these reasons -- >> why, why is he inevitable? >> -- is the inevitable -- because everybody else is even weaker. everybody else is, frankly, just totally unacceptable. i mean, can you really think of president michele bachmann? or really, for that matter, president herman cain? no. you really can't imagine that. romney, i don't know, like i said, if you squint real hard, maybe you can see the haircut in the oval office or something. but that's about it. >> bob, i don't get it. i mean, usually presidents,

former president reagan, late president reagan explained a transition from a man who signed a pro-choice bill out in california to being pro-life. there's some kind of explanation of some kind of epiphany, something that leads you to change. but here's romneyç flipping on climate change without any pretense of a transformation. just, hey, things have changed politically in the last couple of weeks. i just checked the polls, so i'm changing my mind. >> i think this whole thing to him is a business proposition. he wants to pursue the presidency that way, so he's finding out what the customers want and giving the customers whatever they're asking for him. >> what is he, clue, on what kind of a party you want? >> that's exactly what's going on. but the problem is you've got a lot of republicans who are looking for anybody who isn't romney. and i think ron's right. in the end, they're going to have to go with romney, because the other people are so totally unacceptable. he'll mostly win because of his opponents, not because of what

he does. but the problem with that is he's going to go into a general election where he's going to be held accountable on flip-flops, he's going to be held accountable on his jobs record. and as i found out in 1994 when i was involved with senator kennedy's campaign for re-election where romney was briefly ahead of him by one point, he's brittle. and when you begin to push him and he gets into the kind of thick of this, he's going to be like he was in that last debate. he's going to bristle. and i think people are going to get increasingly uncomfortable with the idea of him being president. >> i can't wait for tampa to be 110 degrees, 110 humidity, and they'll have to nominate somebody they don't want. thank you, bob shrum, what a sultry occasion that's going to be. thank you, ron reagan. up next, ed rollins strikes again. he's got even worse things to say about his candidate, the one he used to work for now, michele bachmann. stick around for ed to do what he does. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. 7 ♪ ♪

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back to "hardball." now to the sideshow. first up, fair game. it's not just cain campaign that's taken a bizarre spin this week. who will forget the speech given by rick perry in new hampshire over the weekend where the candidate came across as we, we not some guy running for president. let's see how that innocecident pummeled last night on "the daily show". >> rick perry, hurt by stiff nns his debate performances, seized the moment in new hampshire this weekend. >> this is such a cool state. i mean, come on, live free or die? i mean, it's like, live free or die! victory or çdeath! bring it! >> you're overcorrecting! it gets worse. >> texas rangers after 50 years are going to win a world series! oops. >> best-case scenario, that

dude's hammered. worst-case scenario, that is perry sober and every time we've seen him previously, he's been hammered. after the events of this weekend between herman cain and rick perry, i am ready for the "daily show" to unveil a brand-new segment. ladies and gentlemen, mitt romney, the luckiest motherfudger on earth. >> in this group, romney comes across as the older brother. better yet for him, the babysitter. next up, talk about a parting of the way. here comes another string of harsh words for gop candidate michele bachmann. from whom? her former campaign manager, ed rollins. what started as beating around the bush when he first left his post with the bachmann campaign has now evolved into brutal honesty by ed. let's listen. >> why'd you leave her? >> you know -- >> it was a mess, wasn't it? >> it was a mess. >> it wasn't going to work, was it? >> i didn't think it was going to work and i didn't want to spend the six months in iowa, basically, at my age. >> wow. taking a step further in a separate interview ron said, "she's still saying the same

things she said in the first debate. there's no substance. she says, i'm going to repeal obama care, but she's been saying that from day one. i told her, that's your tea party speech. now you have to say what you're going to do next." there you have it, ed rollins' verdict on his former candidate. up next, hillary clinton is doing what no other democrat is doing these days, she's openly defending, politically, president obama. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] juice drink too watery? ♪ feel the power my young friend. mmm! [ male announcer ] for unsurpassed fruit and veggie nutrition... v8 v-fusion. could've had a v8. [ daniel ] my name is daniel northcutt. [ jennifer ] and i'm jennifer northcutt. opening a restaurant is utterly terrifying. we lost well over half of our funding when everything took a big dip. i don't think anyone would open up a restaurant if they knew what that moment is like. ♪

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welcome back to "hardball." i've been saying for a while and i'll say again that president obama really needs for his re-election is a strong core of allies, who will go to the mat for him when he's right and occasionally when he's wrong. who seems to be standing up to that cllenge is his one-time rival, hillary clinton. she sure sounds like a supporter these days. here she was on "meet the press" last month responding to david gregory's question about her famous 3:00 a.m. phone call ad from 2008 and whether the republicans ads -- the republican candidates need to show foreign policy competence as they run for president. >> i'm out of politics, as you know, david. i don't comment on it, but i think americans are going to want to know that they have a steady, experienced,ç smart ha on the tiller of the ship of state, and there's no doubt that that's barack obama. >> bell, is hillary clinton a political ally obama can really rely on right now? joan walsh is editor at large

for salon.com, chris cillizza is managing editor. we want to offer our condolences to secretary of state clinton, they announced the death of her mother, dorothy rodham at the age of 92. what a life she's had. i've had a mixed history of my political views of hillary clinton and the role she played in the last campaign. i didn't like her position on the war in iraq and i let it be known they preferred barack obama on that key issue to me. but i am overwhelmed, as i've been before, by her behavior. occasionally, she just floors me with her statements. like she did during the campaign at the end when she endorsed him so magnanimously. again, on david gregory's program, "meet the press," we'll show you another clip in a moment. but your view? she seems to be coming not just an appointee of the president, but a true ally. >> oh, i think she very much is

a true ally, chris, and i think she's probably enraged that this president can't get a bit of credit from these republican opponents when it comes to the realm of foreign policy. i mean, that is where he has truly shined, with her help, been on his own, they've disagreed about some things, and he's gone ahead and has done what he needs to do. i expect to see her -- though she says she's not speaking politics, she speaks from a rem of politics and a rem of integrity. and to watch these people criticize this man on iran, on libya, not give him credit for osama bin laden, she will be there for him and she will be this is the place barack obama has been strongest. coming into this if presidency, chris, the biggest question was, is this a guy who can stand up on the world stage and lead? remember, that was john mccain's entire campaign was premised around the idea that barack

obama didn't have the experience to govern in a difficult world. now, he's had lots of struggles domestic policy wise, but foreign policy wise, he's had lots of successes, and i think hillary clinton's involvement in those successes does not go unnoticed. she's a huge figure, both domestically and internationally, chris. i mean, anywhere she goes, she's probably the second most famous politician in the world behind the guy she works for. so she draws attention, and she's credible. and people take her seriously when she speaks and when she advocates. >> she's always well prepared. here's more from secretary of state clinton interview on "meet the press" where she talked about obama being up to the challenge in terms of leadership. let's listen. >> president obama has passed with flying colors every leadership challenge. i think this president has demonstrated that in a still very dangerous world, it's important to have someone at the helm of our country who understands how to manage what

is an incredibly complex world now. yes, we have a lot of threats, but we also have opportunities. and i think president obama has grasped that and has performed extraordinarily well. >> you know, joan, this is not a partisan assessment. republicans are better at bragging. they are really good at it. they'd be -- i mean, george w. would still be dancing and hot dogging and spiking theç ball the end zone if he had caught bin laden. he'd be doing it around the clock. the democrats seem to take -- they seem to have a -- what is it called? they're almost british with their understatement. >> we're very reserved and humble, chris. you know, i think there's some of that. i also think that it's very hard getting a message through in this economic situation. and i think that will be a challenge for the president as the election approaches. these are crucial issues. it's also unbelievable, now, you know, as we've talked about before, the democrats have had such an unfair and bad rap on the issue of national security. now they really are the ones who

can argue, we've turned the corner, we've kept you safe, we've been belligerent. there are some things that i haven't been crazy about, to be honest with you. but they really have the upper hand on this. and yet, somehow, it's not going to be an issue. so i think it's going to require a lot of adept handling to make sure that this president does get the credit that he deserves and that this stands out as an issue in the next go-around. because if the economy's terrible, it's going to be a little bit of a tough sell. >> i think so. chris, you studied politics every week and you have a nonpartisan assessment, i read it every sunday. let me ask you about this. it seems what's happened in the last three weeks, we've had two options, one is the president squeaks by and gets re-elected, winning perhaps north carolin virginia, colorado, or ohio, some combination that gets him by to 270, but real tight. and i thought there was another option, which is the republicans will pull a blowout. they would just have a really bad economy to run, they'd blame it all on him, and he'd take the hit like jimmy carter did.

now i think we're facing two options, one, the president squeaks, which remains the same, joan, i want you in on this, and now the republicans squeak. i think the options of a big ç blowout has been diminished dramatically if not completely by the lousy list of candidates in this three-act clown show they're putting on. i know the economy is out, and then the question is, haven't they just lost their chance for a blowout in the last couple of weeks because of their incompetence? >> i would city say the most likely outcome given what we know about the partisanship in this country is a close election along the lines of 2004, 2000, not a blowout election along the lines of 2008. if you told me there is a blowout in 2012, it's much more likely to be a republican blowout, i would say, simply because of what you pointed out. people are focused on the economy in places like ohio, pennsylvania, florida, michigan, nevada. those would go in the republican

column and i would see a blowout. i don't see any way obama comes close, and i don't think anybody, including the obama team, thinks -- >> herman cain ain't going to win in no blowout. joan, your thoughts? i can't think of one right now that's going to win in a blowout. your thoughts? >> i can't either. i don't think there'll be a blowout, no matter how bad the economy is. i think people -- this white house is skilled. we haven't seen enough skill, but as a campaign, they were skilled at focusing on the questions that they want to focus on and i really think that even -- if romney gets out of this, he is so diminished by his flip-flopping, and those jon huntsman ads, man, you put barack obama in, and, you know, they work in 2012. so i don't see a blowout. >> if the clintons are gung ho for obama, that's a big plus. that's what i wanted to get to. i think clinton's role, including vainclude ing secretary clinton, if she leaves office, theç clintons wl be powerful in pennsylvania and ohio. >> a huge constituency.

>> there'll be a clinton party out there. thank you, chris cillizza, thank you, joan walsh. up next, "the washington post" broke the story that one of herman cain's accusers wants to break her confidentiality agreement and talk about what happened back in the 1990s. we'll talk to "the post" reporter that broke that story next. this is "hardball," only on msnbc. we're working on it. so you're seriously proposing we change our name to sun life valley. do we still get to go skiing? sooner or later, you'll know our name. sun life financial. two of the most important are energy security and economic growth. north america actually has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. a large part of that is oil sands.

this resource has the ability to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. at our kearl project in canada, we'll be able to produce these oil sands with the same emissions as many other oils and that's a huge breakthrough. that's good for our country's energy security and our economy. the always quotable alan simpson zinged anti-tax grover norquist, the guy who gets republicans to pledge against tax increases. here's what the former republican senator said today in a hearing of the super committee charged with finding $1.2 trillion in budget savings. >> i asked him, he said, my hero is ronald reagan. i said,ç well, he raised taxes1 times in his 8 years. and he said, i don't know, i don't like that at all. and i said, well, he did it. why do you think he did it? he said, i don't know.

i said, he probably did it to make the country run. >> expect to hear that line repeated by democrats in the days and weeks to come. is this a chevy volt? [ stu ] yeah. it's electric. i don't think so. it's got a gas tank right here. electric tank, right over here. an electric tank? really, stu? is that what you pour the electricity in? it's actually both, guys. i can plug in and go 35 miles gas free, or i can fill up and go a whole lot farther. is that my burger? oh. i just got bun. i didn't even bite any burger.

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clarence paige is a syndicated columnist for the "chicago tribune." thank you, james, for joining us. can you for "the crick-tribune." can you say anything about the woman who made the complaint back 12 years ago is ready to talk about what the nature of the charges she made were? do we know anything more? >> yeah. i think we can infer from that that if she wants her side of the story out çthere, it's different than what herman cain is saying, but they feel so constrained by this confidentiality agreement that they are not saying what they would say if they could talk about it. they are just saying they think the national restaurant association should relieve them of their obligation of non-disparagement and confidentiality so that they could come forward. they mentioned both of those points, so that leads us to believe, and i think logically conclude, that if you want to talk about it and tell another side of the story, it's probably going to be different than what mr. cain is saying. >> here's what cain had to say about one of the accusers on fox last night. let's listen.

>> i do recall that her performance, it had been told to me by her boss, was not up to par, and i normally didn't get into whether someone is let go or fired unless i had to because i allowed my department head to make that decision. her boss, if he didn't think she was doing the job, i said, well, you, along with the human resources department, figure out what you want to do. >> clarence, let's look at this politically. this story is going to have some legs now obviously. this is going to go on because everyone now wants to know the perry mason, you know, ending, what's going to be said as this comes to the public sort of witness, sort of a day in court here we're going to see here. how does this go as the story in terms of this campaign and the life or death politically of mr. cain? >> well, this has already become a problem for mr. cain because it's gotten him off message. wanted to come to washington to talk about his jobs plan and his economic ideas, and he wound up

talking about sex, and that has taken the spotlight now, and the problem is he's handling this as though he were still a corporate ceo, business executive trying to keep things very tight, close to the chest, but he'sç in the world of politics now. the public will want to know some answers, and his fellow republicans want to know how stable of a candidate is he, how stable is his future, or are they going to have more secrets blow up on this campaign? so he really needs to get as much information out as quickly as possible and clear the air. >> a couple of facts that you might have at hand, james. one is was there more to this agreement on the departure of that employee that made the accusation then a couple months, what do you call it, what's that term? >> severance. >> severance. >> was it something else in terms of cash? >> yeah. i asked the lawyer about that. first, i want to go to what you said about putting the clip up there. the lawyer says that by the statements that he has made, including the one that you just aired. >> yeah. >> that he believes that cain

has waived that confidentiality. they believe they are getting whacked, and they can't respond. >> gotcha. >> but i asked the lawyer. cain is saying it's just a severance which says there were no facts to substantiate the allegation of sexual harassment. the lawyer said, look, there were claims. there were claims of sexual harassment and there was a settlement, and that's as far as he would go, but the implication is there's more to it than we've heard so far. >> and let me think. i guess i'm going to stretch you now for your reporting. do you know if her accusations reached the level of what most people would say was really bad behavior or inappropriate behavior? in other words, was she propositioned? did she use his authority over her to get sex, in a very narrow old-time definition that people would say awful, rather by the modern stances of improper language in the workplace, that sort of thing? >> yeah. those are the very questions i've had since the story broke. i mean, i have to say i don't know if i would have gone with this story until i knew the

answer to that question. theç question sort of hangs ou there, and it could be anything from, you know, a series of inappropriate comments to, you know, strauss-kahn or something. >> yeah. >> we have no idea. >> and i think, therein, get to the politics. therein lies the question of the political mega tonnage here, right? what is the story in itself? >> what is the story, and cain is in a position where questions have been raised. he has not been consistent or forthcoming with his answers, and he's creating more problems for himself unless -- he himself should be getting out there asking the restaurant association to release this woman so he can talk. >> at last glance it's worse than it looks already. >> doesn't help for him to be accused of being part of a cover-up. >> congratulations. "the post" has regained the control of the story from the renegade politico. side story we're all watching. thank you. when we return, my book, "kennedy, elusive hero," book

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let me finish tonight with what president obama needs most politically. he needs allies, potential confederates who will get out there, who will sing his praises, take punches for him and deliver some punches themselves. not only that he needs political

loyalists with strong gut ties to the people who are going to decide this election next year, not just the college crowd that got him nominated and elected in 2008, but the scared, angry people who didn't go to college. i didn't see a lot of them out there working and speaking for him lately. word is out that obama's a transitional or a transactional politics. he cuts deals with people, but he doesn't forge bonds. when is he going to bolster his political forces, and what's the story with the people in his cabinet? where are they? do they campaign for him? do they stand up on the sunday shows with passion and stickç to their critics? i've never seen such a band of political neutrals as his cabinet. come to think of it, what does speak up for obama with any real passion these days? democrats in congress act as if they are in a different political party, not just a different branch of government. obama needs battle-ready surrogates and doesn't have them. he needs allies who will go out there and get their brains knocked in. he needs troops, and the reason he doesn't have them, i suspect, is brutal. he hasn't recruited them. he hasn't spent