>> they're going to miss him. the comedians get tonight's last word. you can have the last word online at our blog and follow my tweets. republican rumble. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in my hometown of philadelphia. leading off tonight, republicans in turmoil. first herman cain blamed the media, then he blamed the democrats and the liberals, then he blamed the perry campaign, accusing them of leaking the story about him. the perry campaign denied it all and suggested the romney campaign leaked the story. romney's people then denied it. then today the cain people said, never mind, we didn't think the perry people leaked it after all.

got it? the result is a murky mess that's not doing anyone any good. certainly no republican any good, except, perhaps, one democrat, that's president obama. which is not to say the president doesn't have his own problems today. in the face of a stalled economy, there's general agreement that his campaign for 2012 will have to tear his opponent down in order to win. but how does the president do that without soiling his own good reputation? plus, running on empty. mitt romney has been running for president for years now and he's still at about 25% in the republican polls. well, maybe the message republicans are trying to send him is, we'll take anyone but romney. and raising arizona. what do you do when an independent commission for a congressional redistricting comes up with a new map you don't like? well, if you're governor jan brewer of arizona and her

republican senate, you fire the head of the commission. in other words, it's okay to be independent, as long as you do what we tell you. let me finish tonight with a lesson barack obama can still learn to his credit from president kennedy. we start with the big mess in the republican field. it's getting messier. alex burns is with politico and dana milbank is a columnist for "the washington post." alex, then dana, same question to you. late-breaking news late this afternoon. it seems like herman cain is now dealing in direct contradictions with what we were hearing what he did. here he is telling sean hannity this afternoon, quote, sean, this is absolutely fabrication, man. i don't know what else to say. how many more ways can i say it? this stuff is totally fabricated. that was in direct response to a question from sean, to his credit, by the way, to sean's credit, "did you or did you not proposition one of your employees to go to the company-owned hotel room or apartment house?" alex, we're now getting direct contradictions, as i see it, as to what we're getting from these sources.

>> chris, we're getting direct contradictions from just about every story we've heard about and from herman cain this week. the latest one just before that one with sean hannity, jonathan martin reporting that one of herman cain's accusers got a settlement of $45,000, which is an awful lot more than the two or three-month salary that herman cain indicated at the beginning of the week. we are now in day four of this story and herman cain is no longer answering questions and there are more questions building up. >> dana, it seems to me that this follows an old dance of denial and rolling disclosure, if you will, contradictory at times, often contradictory. and i guess the question comes down to, is this going to change the shape of this campaign? what's your belief, as of now, before we go any further with this perry mason aspect to it, what do you think are the implications, the consequences if this goes on another week? >> oh, my goodness. look at what it's done to herman cain already? yesterday you had him blowing his stack and starting to shout at people. now you have him almost literally on the lam. the man has gone underbetween ground. his staff said he was somewhere

in new york and wouldn't say where. i guess he was with dick cheney at a secure undisclosed location. occasionally tweeting something out or granting a phone interview here or there. so the man seems to be in sort of a psychological way not really in a very good place right now. so, of course, he's going through a lot of contradictions. you know, how much longer can he do this? he's going to come back to washington, face the media maelstrom again. he's just figuring, okay, maybe those folks out in iowa don't really care. it looks awfully absurd to those of us here in town, and i suspect to a lot of voters around the country as well. >> well, let me go back to alex on this point. it seems to me you have to look at motive here. i don't know who leaked this story to politico. maybe politico got this from a totally nonpolitical source. they may have gotten it from someone who worked in that

association. i don't know, it's not my worry right now. my political question is this -- it seems to me you have to ask, who gains, however they got the story in the press, about his behavior, who gains politically? obviously, somebody else on the political right who would like to be the candidate of the right, of the tea party right, to take on romney for the nomination. that would be newt, of course, or perry or perhaps rick santorum. let's start with perry. is this why you believe that herman cain blamed, initially, perry's people for leaking this? >> chris, it seems like herman cain -- i can't honestly say that i have any idea why herman cain decided to blame rick perry's people, but as you noted, his campaign seems to have backed away from that accusation. i think their hope was probably if they made this -- if they could find a culprit for this smear campaign that they're alleging, maybe they could make that accusation stand up a little bit more. but i do think that, you know, to your point about folks on the right searching for somebody else, clearly the hope among rick perry supporters is that, you know, conservatives are always going to be looking for someone who's not romney, there are three, maybe four candidates

who could be that guy at this point, and the only one of them with money is rick perry. >> this is the thing that's changed. if this grows deeper and if this gets teeth, in other words, one of the witnesses, one of the victims comes forth in a way, even indirectly, and lets us really what was going on here and clarified graphic terms so the average conservative can get their teeth around it and say, i understand what this guy did, he did something wrong, dana, and i don't want to vote for him anymore, because this guy can't even run for president, let alone be president of the united states, because of his misbehavior. does this change the nature of the republican fight from romney versus cain to romney versus perry again? is this what we're looking at here? >> possibly, but even if somebody came out with some more graphic detail, then you might get into some sort of an anita hill situation, which would rally even more support towards cain here. but in the larger sense, you know, look, i think for all the contradiction and all the back

and forth, we have a pretty clear sense. this isn't he said/she said, it's she said/she said/she said, and he didn't exactly deny it. and i've talked to women covering him right now on the campaign trail who say, look, there's a lot of excessive hugging, a lot of talk of sweetheart. part of it is this guy is a certain generation, comes from the south, but there's also a pattern that's pretty clear. >> dana, you're very good at drawing a picture. draw me a picture, for the voter out there, not for the hr department, but for the voter out there that would change their vote on him. something besides his behavior besides old-fashioned hugging, of even reporters, who obviously have nothing to do with him, but just for fun hugging, no sexual intent. what is the worst he's accused of now that would drive the vote away from him? dana first. >> chris, i think there's virtually nothing that would do

that to the typical voter in iowa, who is supporting him. now, beyond iowa, you know, the voters in new hampshire are very different, and when you get out into the rest of the country, there are going to be a lot more people who are viewing this as the centrist independent voter would. but the iowa picture is completely different here. they almost see him as a persecuted man, no matter what comes out. >> well, alex, let's get back to you. if you look at candidates campaigning, you see them not just kissing babies, even to this day, but you see them hugging people. they're very demonstrative, most candidates. they're pretty good at pressing the flesh, we call it. is there something that went on in private that would turn off a voter in the republican fight? that you know about. so we can see something that we're talking about here? can you report? >> chris, i think that that

would be certainly the most damaging thing for herman cain, going forward, is if voters got a more specific sense of who these women are and what precisely it was that went on. but to dana's point, i think that herman cain already has a problem, even with some of those iowa voters, very conservative voters, when it comes to just the issue of honesty. that this week there have been so many shifting stories -- >> i agree with that. >> i do think, you are starting to get this sense, who is this guy, really? i was speaking to richard land from the southern baptist convention this morning, who was saying, if herman cain thinks this is going to go away, he's delusional, and only complete transparency will get the job done. >> so this gets back to his political incompetence? >> well, if it's incompetence, that's one thing. if it's an honesty issue, that's the another thing. but herman cain has not done himself any favors. >> in march of this year, guys, cain told conservative bloggers they didn't need to worry about any skeletons in his closet. let's listen to this very interesting promise. let's listen. >> i can assure you, i have an original copy of my birth certificate. i don't have any illegitimate

babies. i don't have any mistresses. you know, you tick 'em off, and i can tell you. i've never been arrested, i've never gotten a dui warrant. absolutely none of that. so, no, i don't have any of those kind of skeletons in my closet. and what i have told people, if they can come up with something to try to damage my reputation, they will have made it up. >> well, there you go. dana, you've been around a little bit to know that this is what candidates have to think about before they run. we've been through the eagleton case, we've been through gary hart over the years, candidates who thought they could get away with something in their past, whether it was innocent or not, it was part of their medical history in the case of eagleton, electroshock therapy. gary hart said, put a tail on me, me, somebody did, and became the tail. and the question is, is this what he thought he didn't have to deal with? it doesn't quite make sense to make a statement like that, comprehensive denial of any problems. >> and when he said that in march, he was basically on a lark. he was getting ready to run for president, not as a serious candidate.

he was in on the joke. he knew he wasn't going to be the president, you know, it would help his speaking fees, maybe he'd get a cable news gig, maybe he'd replace you on "hardball," but he wasn't thinking he was going to be elected president. suddenly, lightning strikes, he's a major contender. you have a whole different level of scrutiny and of honesty, and he wouldn't be speaking that same way, he wouldn't say, come put a tail on me. >> actually, i think he'd be looking for a job on another network, just my guess, dana. perhaps fox. alex, your sense of why he offered such a blanket denial of any skeletons in his closet so overtly if he did know of these? >> well, i think dana's point is exactly right. i think he wrote an excellent column on it. i also say this tends to be the way herman cain speaks. he speaks in exaggerated, categorical terms, whether it's talking about whether china has nuclear weapons, whether he wants muslim in his cabinet, or about his own personal life. >> rather in a cartoon fashion, i would say.

thank you, guys. it's a murky story. still people are trying to figure this out, but it does look like he's in something of a death swirl, whatever they call that in airplanes when you're heading down. thank you, dana milbank, alex burns. coming up, if the economy doesn't rebound, the president likely will go negative and try to bring down his opponent, tear down someone like mitt romney, the way they tore down john kerry when he was looking good the last time around. but can the president do that without hurting his own reputation? there's an interesting question. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. ♪ [ male announcer ] you never know when a moment might turn into something more. and when it does men with erectile dysfunction can be more confident in their ability to be ready with cialis for daily use.

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never to raise taxes, was bad for his party. well, listen to the speaker's response. >> listen, our focus here is on jobs. we're doing everything we can to get our economy moving and to get people back to work. it's not often i'm asked about some random person in america and what i think. >> a random person, that grover norquist won't like that. this is the guy who has the country over a barrel, because he makes republicans vow to never even consider tax increases. but on capitol hill, there is a sign perhaps now that grover norquist's influence is waning. 40 house republicans joined 60 democrats to urge the super committee working now to consider new revenue as part of a deal to drastically cut the country's debt. wow, some breakthrough here. the ice is cracking. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] sitting. waiting. hoping. that's a recipe for failed investing. open an e-trade account and open doors, seize opportunities, take action

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welcome back to "hardball." the strategy for the obama

campaign this year is summed up in this politico headline. "obama's style -- go negative, stay clean." and the article reads in part, "obama faces one of the most difficult tests of his political career. to tear down romney without getting a single smudge of dirt on his own shirt front." is this the way for obama to win in 2012? joining me now, democratic strategist michael feldman and republican strategist, john feehery. john, i'm giving you the first shot here. is this -- first of all, i want you to listen to david plouffe, this is on "meet the press," i believe. let's listen. >> i'd make two points about him. one is, he has no core. and you get the sense with mitt romney that, you know, if he thought he -- it was good to say the sky was green and the grass was blue to win an election, he'd say it. >> well, there you have it, john feehery. is that explains to me the strategy. what do you make of it? bring the guy down -- well, bring him down because he lacks no core or no soul, if you will. >> i think the strategy for barack obama has to be, how do i

motivate my base and freeze the middle so they don't come out? the only way he can do that -- he's certainly not going to run on his record. the only way he can do that is go hard after mitt romney. the risk for barack obama is if he goes ugly early, it is going to splash up on him and people are going to see right through that. and i think it could really hurt him with independent voters. >> you just used the word "ugly." it is ugly to say that mitt romney is quite flexible in his position taking? is that ugly, to say something that seems to manifest? >> no, but i don't think necessarily that is. but i think he is going to go ugly on romney. he's going to attack him very viciously and we'll start seeing that early on, as soon as it becomes clear. right now it doesn't make any sense, you've got the herman cain story, he's not going to be able to break through. but when it becomes clear that romney's the guy, i think you'll see the obama campaign go after him in very tough terms. >> when has the president gone ugly, ever? >> well, he hasn't had to, frankly.

>> when's he ever, in his career? >> i don't think he ever has. and that's why, i think that's why it's going to be so tough for him, because this kind of sterling, clean record of winning fairly easily, because he hasn't had any opponents that have, you know, when he ran against alan keyes, he didn't have to go ugly, because alan keyes was his own worst enemy. he didn't have to go against mccain -- >> but feehery, you have just been contradictory -- you said he's going to go ugly, but he's never gone ugly. >> i said that's the only way he can win, is go ugly, but i think it's going to be risky for him, is what i said. >> let's go to michael feldman with the democrat. you sized up your own guy there. will obama have to go negative to saver himself in a very bad economy? will he have to, by nature, go negative? >> he will have to draw contrasts with his opponent. that's not ugly. the reason why this "attack" on mitt romney is so effective, like all effective attacks, it goes to something at his core, his ability to lead. and it's not just david plouffe asking about his core.

jon huntsman had the most devastating comment of the campaign so far, calling him a well-calibrated weather vane. the conservative base of the republican party is wondering about his core also. that's not a partisan attack, that is a question that voters have about mitt romney. and yes, it is going to be an issue in the campaign. >> how do you go at the core of someone who you say doesn't have a core? >> i'm sorry, who's the question for? >> mike? you just said you're going at the core of the guy, having just said he doesn't have a core. i'm just kidding you. >> you know, it is a question. >> i know it's a question. as to the -- he may be so much of a worm, you can't find the spine. as for the romney strategy, in a est new time magazine, mike halperin writes, quote, what is most potent about romney's campaign so far is its cleverly dispassion anti-obama formula, which goes something like this -- the president is a nice man with a nice family. he didn't cause the economic

mess, but his actions have made things worse. he's clearly in over his head." halperin says, "that message worries many senior democrats who believe that romney has made the tactical decision to take the high road and leave the gutter attacks to the incumbent." smart thinking. is that your thinking, john feehery? nice guy, in way over his head? >> i happen to think, a, it's a good strategy, and b, it's true. i think the president is in over his head. and i think the best way for mitt romney to attract those independent voters, those swing voters is to run a high-road campaign. the right wing is already anti-obama. we already get that. the key for romney is the middle ground. and actually, i think this kind of campaign theme is actually

true. i do think the president is in over his head. >> mike feldman, you can point to the fact that the right-wing fellow travelers of romney, if he's the nominee, will be painting pictures of swastikas all over the guy and making him look like hitler or putting bullet holes in his head. how do you stop those guys from being personal in their ugliness against obama, if you're romney? >> i think both campaigns, the democratic nominee, which will be president obama, and the republican nominee, if it's mitt romney, will have the same issue this cycle. which is, third party groups, they have no coordination, they can't control them. and there will be attacks on both candidates that will come, that will be harsher, more personal. maybe have nothing to do with their ability to lead. both candidates will have to step up and say, listen, they don't speak for me, that's not right. here's what we're running the election on. that is new in this cycle because of the advent of the third party groups. >> okay, you two clean-cut guys. i want you to get to the bottom line here. this is the best thing i've seen. nate silver is a genius. he's analyzed how this election is probably going to go next year. based upon current data. in "the new york times," he handicaps the 2012 race using obama and two different scenarios for the economy. case study number one, obama's opponent is romney and the economy is stagnant. in nate's calculation, the

probability of winning the popular vote under these circumstances is romney 83%, obama 17%. fascinating. in his second scenario, the opponent is romney but the economy in america is improving. the probability of winning in these circumstances, romney, 40%, obama's probability of winning, 60%. in the third scenario, obama's opponent is rick perry, and the economy is improving. in this case, the probability of winning the popular vote is perry, 17%, obama, 83%. in the fourth scenario, fascinating, the most fascinating, the opponent is perry and the economy is stagnant. perry, probability of him winning, 59%, probability of the president getting re-elected, 41%. mike feldman, fascinating stuff. it basically is saying if you distill through all the numbers, the economy will drive the results of this election, regardless of who the republicans nominee. your thought on that? >> i think presidential politics isn't calculus.

if you average out all those scenarios, we basically say there's a 50/50 chance of president obama getting re-elected, i think we're probably pretty close to that. but at the end of the day, presidential campaigns are dynamic. we're a year out. there's a lot we don't know now and nate silver doesn't know now. and if he does know, i want to know who will win the eagles/bears game on monday. >> nice diversion. do you think the president can win re-election in a stagnant economy, yes or no? >> absolutely. >> as bad as it is now? >> yes, absolutely. >> okay. john, feehery, can the president -- can your party blow it if the economy is this bad? >> chris, the reason why this is a brilliant analysis is also because it's blindingly obvious. if the economy is still stagnant, the president's going to lose. if the economy comes back, he's probably going to win. there's really not much more you can do about it. i think that silver's probably right. >> i'm with you on this one, although i don't know who's going to win. i think the probability's leaning your direction. the president could pull a rabbit out of his hat. he is the luckiest man in politics i've ever known. when you get to run against alan

keyes and john mccain who's past his political prime, you are a lucky man. anyway, thank you, michael feldman and thank you, john feehery. up next, highlights from my trip to "the view" to talk about my book "jack kennedy: elusive hero." i was on with the ladies today. it was great going over there. i talked today about the personal relationship between jack and jackie kennedy. hot stuff. and tonight, i'll be speaking about my book at the national constitution center here right next to independence hall, an historic spot for an historic conversation. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. let's see if we can get one past the defense.

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back to "hardball." now for the sideshow. first up, this morning i stopped by abc's "the view" to discuss my new book, "jack kennedy: elusive hero." our conversation centered less on politics and more on jack

kennedy's personal relationship with his wife, jacqueline. let's take a look at a highlight from the interview. >> he had pals through high school, pals from the navy, college friends, prep school, elite guys he hung out with. he met a guy in high school, he was a totally lonely kid and one guy was a doctor's son from pittsburgh, led billings, became friends for life. he had a room at the white house while jack was there. there was this other person living in the white house, and he went to the wedding day on jack and jackie kennedy and said, i have to warn you, you're 24 now, and jack's 36 now, he's a bachelor, he's not going to lose his bachelor ways. you better get used to it. and then len went to jack and said, guess what i told your bride, who you are, and he said, thanks, it's good that she knows it. well, it's a complicated relationship between very elusive people. and it continues to fascinate us all. next up, with friends like these

-- things got a little testy up on capitol hill today in the morning as members of both parties sparred over the jobs bill on the senate floor. but how does a senator avoid offending his rival leader? let's take a look at the tax here employed by senator majority leader harry reid and his counterpart on the republican side, mitch mcconnell. >> my friend, the republican leader, who i care a great deal about personally, is absolutely wrong. >> my good friend just made a great campaign speech. >> my friend, the republican leader, comes before this body -- >> with all due respect to my friend. >> my republican friend. >> my good friend. my friend. >> my good friend. >> i would say to my friend, we can stay here all day. i will get the last word. >> well, talk about getting in the last punch, even if it was with padded gloves. the two referred to each other as "friend" a dozen times in them verbal alfonse and gaston routine that lasted nearly half an hour. the $60 billion infrastructure bill ultimately failed to pass in the senate this afternoon by a vote of 51 to 49.

it takes, of course, 60 votes to get somewhere. and now for the big number. i guess it's the small victories that matter, especially in the case of a presidential candidate whose poll numbers continue to flounder in the single digits. that's got rick santorum this giddy. >> well, i guess, when it comes -- >> i've got my hands up in the air, we crossed the finish line. i feel great. i've had such a wonderful time. >> well, the victory cry is far from what? as it turns out, santorum has achieved the goal he set to visit. all the counties in iowa. how many of them did he cover? 99 counties. the candidate was inspired by iowa's senator chuck grassley, who sets a foot in all the counties in the state at least once a year. well the question, 6 course, is whether rick santorum ever left a footprint, politically, in any of those counties. 99 counties have got a glimpse, at least, of rick santorum. that's tonight's big number. up next, the republican governor of arizona is being accused of a power grab, after

orchestrating the ouster of the chairman of the state's supposedly independent redistricting commission. it turns out the governor didn't like the map the commission drew up, so got rid of the commissioner. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc.

welcome back to "hardball." out in arizona, the new census figures mean the state gets a new congressional district for the state. and back in 2000, arizonians voted to take the politics out of redistricting and have it done by an independent commission. but politics crept back in this week as governor jan brewer fired the independent leader of the independent commission. well, today, "the hill" newspaper laid out the stakes. "the draft map the commission released in october shored up some democratic seats and made some republican seats more

competitive. it also created a new toss-up district that democrats have a chance of winning. arizona is gaining one seat in the house due to population growth over the past decade. the creation of that new district led to a redrawing of the lines in the phoenix area that pitted two republican incumbents, representatives ben quayle and david schweikert in a likely primary showdown." well, sheerra is a writer for "roll call," that covers redistricting. thank you so much for joining us. draw the picture, it's that simple, right? the republican governor didn't like the looks of the new layout? >> it's not quite that simple, but it's pretty close. >> tell me how it's not close. what's the difference? >> the difference is, the governor technically has a right to impeach the head of the redistricting committee, but this is really unprecedented. i cover redistricting around the country, chris, and i haven't seen anything like this, where a governor of any party has gone in and tried to take over an

independent commissions process. that's where this is really new and unchartered territory in terms of redistricting. at least in this cycle. what isn't new is that politics is inserted into this process. redistricting is one of the most political processes out there. >> what would be a fair assessment? how many seats did arizona have? it had, what, eight? >> yes. and now it has nine. >> what would be a fair delineation, a division, if you do it by, say, voter turnout or voter registration. what would be a fair thing, a breakout of the two parties? >> well, i like to say, there's no such thing as fair in redistricting. it all depends who can draw the line, who holds the pen. there should probably be more democratic seats than republican seats. there are a lot of competitive districts in this seat. and that means parties are going to have to spend a lot of money over the course of the next couple cycles defending these seats and fighting for these seats. and i think that makes republicans mad, because they technically backtracked from the current map. >> it just seems much ado about nothing, if you say roughly splitting the nine new numbers

of seating, and it's 5-4 republican, how could this commission result or its proposal have undercut that result? say, 5-4. did they think it would come out 6-3? what were the republicans so riled up enough to take the heat the governor's going to take from us and other people for firing the commissioner? >> well, there's more than just drawing nine seats and making them fit, the population. you have to worry about things like minority districts. that's a huge deal in arizona, because they've had this explosive population growth in hispanic communities over the last ten years. they had to make sure they drew two hispanic districts of majority populations. that's a huge concern. that's one of the things the commission had to think about. >> who's getting the heat out there right now? is it governor brewer or what? which way is the wind blowing? >> it's definitely governor brewer. i saw today the authors of the original ballot initiative to create the independent commission came out against governor brewer, saying she wasn't really following the intent of the law when she moved

to impeach the commission head. it's definitely governor brewer. and to make matters worse, she's not even in arizona right now. she's selling her book in new york. she had to call the second in line over there in the state senate to hold the session to impeach. she's not even there right now during the proceedings and it looks really bad. >> she's taking heat here at "hardball" before she takes it again tonight. thank you so much for joining us, shirrra toplitz from "roll call." let me go to andre from the arizona democratic party. andre, thanks for joining us. give me a sense, how many seats did you figure you might have picked up under the commission? i love to know numbers. could your party have really gained and gotten four seats or even five out of this new deal? >> well, here's the deal. right now in arizona, out of the eight seats, you have four safe republican seats, two safe democratic seats, two competitive seats. under the draft map the commission put forward, there would be four safe republican seats, two safe democratic seats, and three competitive seats. so a tiny step forward in terms of competitiveness. my sense is have as many 50/50 competitive districts as you can. that gives the voters a real

choice. >> you're with me. that's a great thing. >> absolutely. >> nothing drives me crazier than locked in seats by either party. because then all you have is a polarizing, where the only danger an incumbent faces, man or woman, is somebody further to the right or further to the left, and therefore they always have to lean further right or lean further left, never compromise on anything, for fear that some young person will come along and grab that seat from their outer reaches. let's take a look at the editorial in your paper today, in the arizona republic. "republicans raise genuine concerns about whether the redistricting commission violated the open meeting law, particularly in choosing a mapping consultant with ties to the democratic party. they should have let the legal investigation which is underway play out." was there a real impeaching factor here in terms of the commissioner not holding open hearings? >> the only way the governor can move for impeachment and the senate can vote for impeachment as they did is if there's a gross misconduct in office. this open meetings law is

basically the equivalent of a speeding ticket. it's minor administrative law. these folks put forward charges about getting the commissioner any specifics on what she was accused of, did not give her any chance to present evidence or present evidence against her. there was no trial, there was no chance for her to speak up. and they convicted her of gross misconduct in office. she's an independent, registered independent, a citizen volunteer, and they dragged her reputation through the mud and violated our state's constitution. you're at the constitution center tonight. this is going on in 21st century america and they're acting like it's a banana republic in central america. this is about the governor not wanting competitive districts, not wanting districts where people have to reach out, build a coalition, talk to independents, talk to moderates, talk to people across party lines, and have bread and butter issues on the table. jobs, schools, crime, instead of the kinds of things that drive our politics right now. president obama's birth certificate, immigration, whatever riles up your partisan base, that's why our partisan politics is so out of whack here in arizona. we are a very closely divided state, almost closely divided

between democrats and republicans. what they want is a stranglehold on power through gerrymandering. >> i was going to ask you -- let me ask you, do you think there's any pressure on governor brewer from republican leaders in washington who were damned and determined to hold the house in this next election? >> oh, absolutely. we know up front the people in our congressional delegation, congressman quayle and others, congressman quayle's mother, they were all calling governor brewer and saying that she has to call this special session. they were all calling the state legislators, and you had a lot of folks doing what they knew was wrong to take this independent citizen volunteer and throw her out of office, accusing her of gross misconduct in office, when she has done nothing anywhere close to that. and this is about whether we're going to be a nation of laws, whether we're going to have competitive districts that actually give people the right to vote and the right to fair representation. that's what's at stake right now. i hope people get involved in this fight.

>> andrei, i think you'll run for senate some day. you are a passionate fellow. we love having you on. you sound like an honest man, too. up next, anybody but romney. do conservatives hate romney so much they'd rather see president obama win re-election than try to defend romney's moderation for eight years sgh better to have four years to punch obama? i think there's something to that theory. and it's joe scarborough's. this is "hardball" only on msnbc. let me tell you about a very important phone call i made. when i got my medicare card, i realized i needed an aarp... medicare supplement insurance card, too. medicare is one of the great things about turning 65, but it doesn't cover everything. in fact, it only pays up to 80% of your part b expenses. if you're already on or eligible for medicare, call now to find out how an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company, helps cover some of the medical expenses... not paid by medicare part b. that can save you up to thousands of dollars. these are the only medicare supplement insurance plans... exclusively endorsed by aarp.

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we're back. if herman cain's troubles wind up ending his campaign, republicans might find themselves back where they started, stuck with the guy who always -- well, always left them standing when everyone else falls down. mitt romney, the idea of romney as their candidate is so far from some conservatives is they've begun to think the unthinkable. let's listen to joe scarborough. >> i'm hearing something remarkable over the past week. i'm hearing conservatives, stalwart conservatives, starting to say, you know what, i would rather lose to barack obama, i would rather give him four more years than elect mitt romney and have him spend money like george bush and have another republican who promises to be conservative go liberal. conservative leaders, this week -- it's like a light switch has come on, and they say, you know what, fine, we would rather

lose. >> would republicans really be more willing to lose to obama this time next year or win with romney? i love the way joe set this up. i've been thinking that way myself. jennifer donohue is with the eisenhower institute and a "huffington post" contribute. and joe klein is columnist for "time" magazine, an the latest edition of the magazine is out today. i've got to start with you, joe klein. i guess he might be dealing in hyperbole, i'm not sure, but would they rather defend a guy, a moderate republican for eight years, they don't really like, or just punch obama for four more years, then take over with a real comfortable? conservative? >> well, obama is very, very good business for a lot of conservatives. especially those who try and raise money. i mean, here you have this crypto-muslim socialist, whatever, foreigners as president of the united states, you could raise money off of him for the next four years. and on the other hand there's

mitt romney, the only candidate on the stage there who can stand next to obama in a debate and give him a tussle. he doesn't even own a pitchfork. as we now know, he hires and he would never show up at a tea party meeting if he lasted a million years. >> yeah. and when i'm out in iowa, there are some tea party people who go to romney meetings and they are favorably impressed if not convinced. but all those other people who don't go to romney meetings and people who go to gingrich and santorum and perry meetings, they all think that the guy is a democrat in sheep's clothing. >> jennifer, your thoughts on this. i think i know them. but what do you make of joe's proposition that there's so little interest in mitt romney and that's why he's only getting about 23%, 25% of the national number no matter how many people are in the race? they just don't want to have him as their nominee. they just don't want him to be

their standard bearer. >> i think that it's really hard for conservatives to galvanize behind romney when there are two mitt romneys, when there's the liberal one who ran for governor in massachusetts and assured gay groups that he would support gay marriage, or at least support same-sex benefits, that he was pro choice and now he's pro life, that he was against things that he's now for. which mitt romney would be president? there's an authenticity gap. and there's also not only just a credibility gap, there's a generational gap going on where romney seems like he's stuck in the '60s. he's like a character out of "mad men" but without the sex or the drinking. he's stuck, and it's like time has passed him by. i don't think -- >> definitely not the drinking. let's take a look. jennifer, you make a good point. here's the "washington post" today making that point. the "post" details how romney tilted to support liberal causes while he was governor of massachusetts. the "post" also reports this about a meeting the governor had with a pro-choice abortion rights group in his office back in 2002. "mitt romney was firm and direct with the abortion rights

advocates. romney became emphatic that the republican party was not doing themselves a service by being so vehemently anti-choice. he told the group that he would protect and preserve a woman's right to choose under massachusetts law and that he thought any move to overturn the landmark roe v. wade decision would be a serious mistake for our country. joe, he was really leaning out on the left-wing side there on that issue. and this is going to come back and bite him, i bet. >> yeah, but the first thing that comes to my mind is the "new york times" report of about a month ago of romney as a mormon bishop. and there was this one anecdote about how he went to a hospital to try and convince a mormon woman not to have an abortion because it was against god's law. so this guy has played both sides of the fence with equal fervor. it's really kind of remarkable. >> well, how can he be that way? how can a guy -- a party go to tampa, when -- i've said this before.

it's going to be hot down there next september. and get excited about a guy who they believe is ambidextrous politically. joe. >> it's going to be tough, especially with this party, which this fits into your last segment about redistricting. the republican party has become more and more and more a party of its right-wing base. and this guy is out of the -- you know, the republican party of a generation ago. >> yeah. >> jennifer, i don't mean it in any other way, but baseball term is mickey mantle was a switch hitter. the ability to go left or right with batting. not what field to hit to but which arms to use. >> exactly. >> this guy, it seems he could go either way on the same night. >> on the key core issues the republican conservatives care about. i mean, it's not like we're talking about small issues. we're talking about the litmus test issues. >> the core issues. >> the core issues for a man, as you said earlier, who doesn't seem to have a core. i don't see why conservatives would elect him and undo the gains they made in 2010, undo all the gains they've made as they've turned the party to the right.

why would they erase all that and go back to a moderate republican? >> good question. >> particularly one they can't trust. >> because he's the only one of them that can win. those gains are going to be undone. >> i don't think so, joe. >> i love it. jennifer, joe, we're at the crunch point. the only guy that they can run and win with is someone they don't believe in. when we return, let me finish with why the tough times right now call for another can-do president. kennedy was one. obama can be too if he wants to be. a can-do guy, not a complainer, a winner. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. ♪ whoa, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh ♪ we never can give enough ♪ i got something for you and you... ♪ [ female announcer ] may your holidays be merry and bright. merry pringles. ♪ ♪ co-signed her credit card -- "buy books, not beer!" ♪ but the second that she shut the door ♪ ♪ girl started blowing up their credit score ♪ ♪ she bought a pizza party for her whole dorm floor ♪

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let me finish tonight with this. in september president obama gave us a wisp of glory, quoting from president kent nedy's most uplifting words, that american university speech of june 1963. "the problems of man are manmade. they can be solved by man. and man can be as big as he wants. no problem of human destiny is beyond human beings. man's reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable, and we believe they can do it again." well, that powerful american pledge of confidence is what this president needs to give us. he needs to give us evidence to support it, to give it life. where president kennedy could point to the success of the u.s. space program back in the '60s, this president could be pushing such successes as the stunning unexpected turnaround in the u.s. auto industry. oh, yes. and he should brag about them not as obama achievements but as

american successes. he didn't bring back the auto industry. america did. and this attitude of hope could work well today for the simple reason that we need it so. it is a strength obama can draw from kennedy, from those days of blue skies ambition. every victory can be emotional ammo for the next challenge. american leaders can still tap into something very powerful. the astonishing optimism, the can-do resilience of the american people. look at this number. 57% of americans recently told pollsters that "as americans we can always find ways to solve our problems and get what we want." isn't that amazing? always. and this is the firm ground of innate american can-do attitude on which any american leader can take us out of the doldrums. but he the leader must first believe it himself. a president sets the mood for his time. we saw what kennedy did in taking us to the moon, sending young americans around the globe in the peace corps, putting the american presidency on the side of civil rights. it was can-do time because we