getting close now, the big january political fights. let's play "hardball." i'm chris matthews in washington. january madness. we've got big republican primaries and cause cusecaucus new hampshire. newt gingrich can aform a loss in new hampshire but for mitt it may be win or go home. the win or go home january races. next president obama's chances of beating the gop nominee.

where does he stand in the crucial battleground states in how have other presidents done with approval ratings in the mid 40s one year out. and could marco rubio seal florida for romney? and could we see a gingrich-cain ticket? what about a third party run? an independent candidate with surely throw the election to one side or the other but which one? this is no fantasy. we'll be joined by someone who is making sure a third candidate will be on the ballot in all 50 states. and amateur hour. we'll go to the video for low lights in the gop campaign so far there are a lot of them. >> political columnist cynthia tucker. first of course the iowa caucus

is january 3rd. mitt romney is making a push in the hawk eye state according to the "new york times" today, romney is now playing to win the iowa caucuses, television commercials are on the way, staff is arriving. that's according to the "new york times." is this going to happen out there? is he entering? >> he's entering, taking out ads. he's trying to have it both ways -- >> why doesn't he take a breather? he's not a cultural conservative. he's questionable on abortion rights and marriage and the other issues. why doesn't he wait until new hampshire? >> my guess is he sees an opening to get an early strike. there's no nonromney candidate that's really come together, that has materialized, has money, organization and can survive scrutiny. it's all a pack of circus clowns. >> i've noticed that. cynthia, does he have to win out

there to win? is it really win or lose for him? >> in iowa i don't think anybody really expects mitt romney to win in iowa. he's not conservative enough for the david who -- >> why does he want to start his race with a possible loss then? >> it doesn't hurt him at all. it pays he's showing attention to social conservatives. he doesn't want to start off as looking like i'm ignoring you, i don't need you. if he places second, it gives him a little momentum. >> you're right there. how far badly does he have to do in iowa to really hurt him? suppose he pulls a fourth out there, john? >> i think that actually once they've decided to go in, i think they raise the bar very high towards actually having to win. look, i think that you are the front-runner in the race, you have sat out on the iowa sidelines the entire year and have kind of tried to convey to people you're not going to compete there. now at the last minute you decide because the field is split among the social

conservatives that you have a chance to win that state, win new hampshire and put this away quickly, if you go out there as the front-runner and now you're playing in iowa, i think the national media narrative is going to very quickly become is mitt romney making the same mistake as he made in 2008 when he tried to do the same strategy when iowa -- when new hampshire put the race away? i think he's going to raise the bar very high for himself and it's going to be very hard to lower expectations the way he can. >> he goes in and says i'm running, i can win because we know he doesn't take chances. the national media, which leans a little to the left i could argue, could smash him. >> the national media narrative knows iowa is different. also don't forget there's a general election and iowa may be a swing state in the general election. he's going to need these same voters to come out. >> bottom line, who has to win out there or lead the race? if bachmann loses or santorum loses, should they be in the

race? >> santorum is out if he doesn't well. newt gingrich, they can keep going on fumes. >> let me force feed this on you, bachmann and santorum, one of the two has to win? >> rick perry has claimed his supporters that he has money, he has organization in iowa and retail politics will make the difference for him. that forget how he's done in the debates -- >> he won't be able to compete in south carolina if he loses in iowa? >> no, he can still play there but i think his supporters dwindle even fast per. >> let's start with the bottom feeding. bachmann and santorum, if they can't win among christian conservatives, where can they win. >> nowhere. if they lose there, they may try to continue campaigning but they'll be the walking dead at that point. rick perry if he finished a strong second in iowa, still holding out the hope of south carolina with the amount of money he's been able to raise so

far, he would still be alive. >> is that right or wrong is this. >> i agree with that. >> let's go to new hampshire. it's always been the decider. here's the latest bloomberg poll in new hampshire. mitt romney hold as commanding lead over his rivals. the only place in the country he gets 40%. most of his opponents are trailing way down in single it not double but including huntsman and other polls show a closer race between romney and gingrich up there. david, does he have to win or he loses? >> he has to win new hampshire. >> are else what? >> he can still stay in the race. >> what's the case if he can't win at home? >> this i'm here. this is the thing, the media can try to drive him out of the race but he'll still have money. it'sin clear who can see the one big surprise in new hampshire might be i hate to say this ron paul. new hampshire is moving more libertarian direction on the republican side. >> i agree. does huntsman have to win up

there to be still in this race? >> he has to come in second, third or fourth. >> i say bachmann is out if she can't win in iowa and i think santorum is out if he can't win. i think if huntsman can't win where he says he can, he'll lose. >> for heavens sakes, huntsman isn't going anywhere any way. it he wince new hampshire, we're talking an entirely new dynamic in this race. >> you don't think so in. >> no. >> mitt romney and john huntsman, one will probably win up there, probably mitt romney. what happens if this doesn't happen? >> if somehow mitt romney wins iowa and then somehow new hampshire does what it does often and hands new hampshire to someone other than mitt mift because they don't want to core on eight him, i think mitt romney could survive them. if mitt romney loses in iowa and then loses in new hampshire, he will be crippled and won't be the nominee.

john huntsman must win new hampshire for the reasons you said. maybe it's possible a very, very strong second place keeps him on the race. >> you pick it up here, john. south carolina has been the kingmaker for the republicans ever since the party went south and become a southern-based party. who has to win down there to city in the race. it seems perry and cain have to do incredibly well there. >> especially since neither one is going to be competitive in new hampshire. south carolina, if you can't win the first southern primary if you're a candidate who is going to win the nomination based on regional strength, you're in significant trouble. and mitt romney looks very strong in florida, which is coming up right after that. you need to -- one of those guys -- >> does everybody agree that perry and cain is -- >> if perry makes it that far. i'll disagree with john on one thing. if mitt romney doesn't happen to win in new hampshire, i don't

think it drives him from the race because the field is so weak. i mean, can you say it should in normal sirks but who is there to pick up the mantle? nobody. >> rick perry is the one again who has raised enough money to try to persuade people he is a serious can't. he doesn't win south carolina, it's done. >> going back to ronald reagan back in 1980, south carolina has always picked the eventual republican contenders. that's a forceful fact there. let's go to florida and finish this um. does everyone agree you have to win something? can you be in this race if you haven't won anything? if you haven't won anything, are you a contender? >> no, you must win to survive. and david's right when he says that the race is fractured in a lot of ways. people will continue to stagger on but the question of who picks up the pieces is who wins in iowa and new hampshire. if mitt romney lost in those two

place, someone will have won those states. >> we go to florida, there's two people that get a bye all the way to florida and that's romney and newt gingrich because newt gingrich is not expected to go anywhere. let's go back to florida with you. florida cannot be the one for romney really prove he can win. this is the first national state representative state of all the ones we've talked about. is that the one that really decides this thing, florida, the guy or woman who wins down there is the key front-runner? >> if romney doesn't win florida and rick perry has not had a miraculousrevitalization, then the party has to come through -- >> you see an intervention? i love this. does florida make or break having a front-runner? >> it is a big pile of delegates, that's certainly

true. if mitt romney has lost new hampshire, i don't see how florida helps him very much. assuming he's won new hampshire and then florida, he's looking pretty good. >> what about the party just says we're not getting anything done here? >> if they've got three different nominees -- three different winners by the time they get to florida, i think there's going to be a lot of angst among the establishment. >> john, do you think there could be intervention by the party grandees such as they are? >> unless herman cain is about to be nominated, i think the answer to that is no. >> coming up, we're going to talk about the president of the united states, barack obama. what are his chances of beating whoever wins this republican round-about? where does the president stand now and how does he stack up to past presidents with approval ratings like he has right now, in the mid 40s. i'm your gps.

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welcome back to "hardball." now we want to compare president obama's approval rating with that of past presidents. we also want to look at the effect of the unemployment rate on past president's quest for reelection. what does the past tell us about president obama's future? i love this stuff obviously. our panel joins us again. president obama's most recent weekly approval rating average, average for the week of november 7th through 13th is 43%. remember that number. that number has been on the rise. let's look at how obama compares to past presidents in november of their third years in office. george w. bush's approval rating was 52% at this time and just starting to rise. he won reelection. bill clinton's rating was 53% and rising, he won reelection.

george h.w. bush was 55% but dropping, he lose reelection. ronald reagan was rising. jimmy carter got a spike when popularity were taken hostage in iran. by november his approval ratings were in the 30s and he lost reelection. richard nixon, his approval rating was 49% and rising, he won reelection. >> what do you see there in. >> they want him to repeat at that trajectory because jimmy carter was a one-term president. you mentioned an episode outside of carter's control which affected his reelection chances and that was the tabing king of hostages in riran. we have no idea what's going to

happen with europe and the euro. that will greatly affect the economy here in the united states. that's outside forces that could have a big effect on obama's reelection chances. >> should he say we found the real binladen? we killed the wrong guy, we got him again. >> when you look at the pattern, mid 40s, sort of gaining but fairly minimally. it's not fair to say obama is getting better off, the economy is not substantially improving but he's sort of inching up a little. how do you read that in terms of history? >> kikt presidents get what their approval rating it son the vote. we have a pretty good idea what we think about presidents and we track that pretty closely. product is on track to win 43% of the popular vote. that's pretty far from what it

takes to win. this trajectory gentlemen k question is almost what matter most of all if you can get the polls moving in the right direction and that's premised on the economy moving in the right direction, you can pretty much feel you'll be reelected. >> john, you said something very evocative there. you said the president's number is his number. at the same time you said the next several moniey -- months ae critical. suppose he beats mitt montana over the head with a frying pan, bashes him, negative, negative, bang, bang, bang, is he still at 43% even though the other looks worse is this. >> president george bush's approval rating rose a little bit while he was taking john

kerry out in such a fashion. you get a reflective approval bump by mashing your opponent and making him unacceptable. it's hard to do that starting at 43. you can move those number if you're at 47, 48, you can creep over 50. hard to get from 43 to 51. >> that opens up something we'll talk about later in the show, which is the third party. obama is still not making himself likable. >> whatever obama does, if he win as year from now, it will be historic. he's going to have to use that frying pan again and again and turn the election into what consultants call a choice election, which is it's me or the other guy. people decide they want to keep the guy there who has been there -- >> there's another choice beyond that, not voting and looking for a third alternative. free will and free choice, you're limited in your options. that's why i like free will

regarding abortion. there are other things you can think about doing besides having sex, if you can. how about free will? free will? >> obama has to worry about the so-called enthusiasm gap. he did extremely well under young voters last time around. this time a lot of those i don't think voters don't have the enthusiasm because a lot of them don't have jobs. >> what happens if he's suck at 43 and he beats the brains out of whoever runs against him? >> we have to see who voters are most scared of? >> can you imagine a 22-year-old kid, african-american or white, whatever, a regular 22-year-old, who i have some experience with, my kids, and you're telling the kid you got to get out there and vote against mitt romney. does that work? >> i don't think it works for that 22-year-old. >> remember obama's numbers have gone up moarginally in the last month of two, taking what

happened after the debt ceiling and turning in into programs and policies. >> there he is. he's going to talk about the future, i said it a million time. let's look at how obama compares to pass presidents in the third year with respect to the unemployment rate. currently the unemployment rate has remained stagnant at 9%. george bush's was 5.8% and dropping and he won reelection. clinton of course won reelection. the unemployment rate for george herbert walk are bush was 7.0. he lost because it was going the wrong way. the unemployment rate for rag raeg, catch this baby, was 8.5 but trending downward. a year later it was 7.2% on reelection day and he was re-elected. the unemployment ratend jimmy carter was 5.9% a year out and

rising. he lost reelection. unemployment rate under president nixon was 6.0 and dropping, he won reelection. there you see, it cynthia. are things getting better or aren't they? it's so simple. the voters like it getting better, they keep the guy. >> even if obama is trending down, 8.7 is still historically a very high unemployment rate. yes, he can argue things are getting better -- >> what do you think he needs to get down to to convince us he's on a blue sky perspective? >> heaven knows something under 8% would help him a lot but that's not going to happen. >> you're right. it's about the future. >> 8.2 would look pretty good right now. >> it would look great. voters have to have confidence he's moving the country in the right direction -- >> that his policies are working. not just good luck. but that his policies are working because they want those policies to continue. i'm selling too much here. john, it is about the future,

people do vote on what they want. does he have to engineer a lower unemployment rate to get re-elected? >> i think there's a lot of people in america who do want the president to succeed and they do think he's been dealt a bad hand and played it as best he could but mitt romney or whoever the republican nominee is going to be is going to argue, look, he's done a lot of stuff, he has passed health care, he's passed stimuluses and we're not better off that ever we were four years ago. for a lot of americans sympathetic to the president, they're going to be very persuadable we just got to try something else. >> the toughest line, they're ready for guys like axelrod, the hey maker, you had your chance, we tried it your way. up next, from herman cain on libya to michele bachmann.

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campbell's chunky -- it's amazing what soup can do. it's still over a month until the first votes are cast but one thing is well under way for the 2012 campaign season. you know it, the republican clown show i've been calling it. we have a highlight real of the lowlights which left me saying "did i hear that correctly owe "? >> our founding fathers never meant for washington, d.c., we fought the revolution in the 16th century. >> okay, libya. >> you own between $250,000 and

a half million to a jewelry company. what was that about, mr. speaker? >> first of all, it's about obeying the law. >> my love about new hampshire and what we have in common is our extreme love for liberty. you're the state where the shot was heard around the world at lexington and concord. >> president obama supported the uprising, correct? >> i would do away with the education -- >> corporations are people, my friend. >> i do not agree with the way he handled it for the following reason, um -- >> commerce and, let see, i can't -- the third one i can't. i'm sorry. >> no, that's a different one. >> we know there was slavery that was still tolerated when the nation began. we also know the very founders that wrote those documents worked tirelessly until slavery was no more in the united

states. >> did you owe a half million to a jewelry company at one point? >> go talk to tiffany's. >> men like john quincy adams, who would not rest until slavery was extinguished in the country. >> i got all this stuff twirling around in my head. >> i haven't had a gaffe or something i have done that has caused me to fall in the poll. >> we need a reader, not a leader. >> oops. >> there's the stocking stuffer. they're laughing in the white house and he's living there maybe for another five years because of that clown show. could marco rubio put mitt romney over the top, especially in florida? and would president obama ever consider dropping joe biden for

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i'm craig melvin, ready, set shop. the economy may be week but americans are hitting black friday hard. 1 million shoppers are expected to flock to stores this weekend. >> turmoil in tahrir square. the military regime steadfast against the opposition raising new questions today about the intentions of this major u.s.

ally. wall street ending early this black friday, also ending its worst week since september. the markets have been battered as governments in europe and here in the u.s. struggle to tackle massive debt. >> and the sure sign of the holiday season in the nation's capital, the white house christmas tree arriving this morning. it's a 19-foot balsam fur that came all the way from wisconsin. that will serve as the centerpiece of the holiday decks racials. i'll see you at the top of the hour. welcome back to "hardball." my panel of colleagues, i love that word, are back with us. if mitt romney wins the nomination on the republican side, who will best serve him politically as vice presidential candidate? we do hear rumors about joe biden not being on the ticket but hillary clinton being on the ticket. would that make the president

look like a leader or a refugee? we'll get to that and everybody has an attitude about that one. david corn, i just think marco rubio was on this program a week ago and he struck me as a young guy who is bright, positive and despite all those questions about when his family came from cuba, i was impressed with him. >> he doesn't talk like a senator, he talks like a real person who is thoughtful, trying to reach out to the other side and come out with policies. >> brutal question. is he too young? he looks very young. >> i don't think his relative youth is disqualifying. i think conservatives are very excited because they think he could help bring along the latina vote. rubio is cuban. >> you're in new mexico and you hear a guy speaking in perfect spanish with a cube and accent, do you like it or not? >> el workyou like it just fine

but i would be more excited about the new governor of new mexico, martinez. >> what's her first name? >> can't remember her first name. >> she's getting a lot of buzz. she would be for the right corner of the country. just run through a couple of names here, having some fun here. the names i've got here on the sheet which makes sense it me, certainly rubio, john. and then huckabee because he gives -- we get, for example, mitt romney some christian conservative support there. and then of course bob mcdonough, a roman catholic governor -- he's the governor of virginia or rob portman from ohio and normally fits the bill if i can deliver one state. >> i'm thinking as i always do when we discuss this matter there is only one qualification to become the vice presidential nominee, which are you ready to be president day one? it's the main thing that voters look for. it's a test of judgment. i think that marco rubio is an

incredibly skillful politician, he has a great future in the party. i don't know that he passes that test. not because he looks too ung but because he is a little too inexperienced. i say rob portman has been a united states congressman, a united states trade represent it have and the governor of ohio. he is a guy who could be president from day one. that's really the only test that matter to most voters. and in addition to that, as you say, he carries some weight in ohio. that's a pretty important state -- >> i don't think he was governor. >> no? >> i don't, i don't think so. >> that test should be the test in the perfect world but as we saw as john wrote about in his last book, it wasn't the test they used last time the republicans got to pick a vice presidential nominee. >> they picked sarah palin, dan quayle. they went for these wild hail mary passes and they didn't work. >> well, dan quayle actually did work in terms of -- >> he made george herbert walker bush look mature. >> and he got elected with dan

quayle on the ticket. >> despite quayle. give me a break. >> no, no, i'm with david on this. >> by the way are doesn't romney seem like a very orderly guy, like a 9-to-5 guy, who would pick by the old rule, somebody who would give you their own state, which would be ohio, an essential state for a candidate. >> david corn made my point by talking about sarah palin. you run a huge risk when you put someone on the ticket who causes voters to mistrust your judgment by choosing someone who is not self-evidently from day one ready to be president. and as you say, chris, i think when it comes to mitt romney, you look at rob portman, you can see a kind of sim pat coness to this guys. >> let follow your rule which tells you more about the candidate for president than the candidate for v.p. i want you to pick up here,

john. if president obama, whatever he says when he does it, if he drops joe biden and brings in -- and brings in secretary of state clinton to replace him and they give a switch-a-roo, even giving him a promise of the secretary of state job in her place, does that make him look strong or weak? >> i think it would provide an incredible jolt to the ticket but i think the president feels as though it would make him look weak and i think that's the reason why it would never happen. i think in some ways he would rather lose. >> what would be his motive if it weren't weakness? let's be completely fair. would there be any reason in terms of performance or loyalty to drop biden? any reason to bring her in? >> biden's been a great vice president for this president. he's dealt with the senate and

house when the president, it's not his strong suit. his policy team works in parallel with the president's team. it's been a great team from the president's perspective. the only reason do this is if there was a life-and-death political reason to do this. >> people who know biden thinks he has more political chops than the president, he understands people, a good one-on-one person, very likable and these gaffs are really superficial 99% of the time but he's known by the "saturday night live" image. it may not be the most salient part of you but it's the handle. his hand certainly still the gaffes. >> but it didn't hurt him in 2008. he has perform very well so far, as david just said. not only that, let remember one of the reasons that obama picked biden is because biden could help him with those working class white voters in states like pennsylvania. >> my crowd, too.

>> exactly. and biden helped deliver those votes. >> can he deliver the really hard ones to get, the appalachian white, western pennsylvania, ohio. they're tougher to get than the irish italian guy -- >> they're going to be tougher this time around because the economy is so bad. i'm not sure hillary clinton could help any more than joe biden. >> i always wondered when people were voting for hillary clinton, were they voting for her or again obama? >> i think they were voting for her at that point. >> i don't know. >> most people want to vote for someone they like and they feel good about, not to stop somebody else. >> so has looked so good as secretary of state. i don't want to get in the way of anything that will work for all of these people involved. i do think the role of secretary of state is the greatest job in the world, first of all. it the better job than any other job. you don't have to do all the diddley and you don't have to run for anything. but the other thing about it, in all fairness to her, you don't

have to attack the opponent, just do your job and she's done it well. >> thank you. david corn will stay with us. up next, what about a third party run? the more these guys attack each other, the more it looks like they're creating space. we have an organization working to put a third party candidate on the ballot in all 50 states. is there anyone big enough to challenge the president and perhaps mitt romney? who is equal to that task? i'm going to be speaking about my book next tuesday at the top political book store here in washington, which everybody hanks out at who loves politics and wednesday i'll be up at the john f. kennedy library. what an honor to go to the john f. kennedy library and talk about my book. i'd like one of those desserts and some coffee.

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chase sapphire preferred. a card of a different color. call the number on your screen or visit our website to apply. back with the republican party fractured it seems right now and president obama struggling in the polls. could a third party candidate or third can't do well in 2012? we have the coo of american's elect 2012, a political group aimed at nominating an independent candidate over the internet in 2012. elliott, what do you do for a living? you run this thing for a living, right? >> i work for americans elect. >> you don't get paid by them? i don't get paid by them. >> where does the money come from for americans elect? can you tell us who your major donors are?

>> one of my major donors is my father, peter ackerman. >> so in is a couple of people giving a lot of money is this. >> we have 4,000 donors. >> do you list it? it's all public? >> it's streaming live on our web site. >> but you're not -- you're set up as a group that can keep its donors secret, right? so can you take some money in that doesn't have to be revealed, right? >> let talk about what that money is going to -- >> is it true some of your money is blind? >> some of our money, which are loans, have come in and those folks have the opportunity to disclose those loans -- >> the two political party you're up against have to disclose their contributions. >> we're not a political party, chris. >> but you're running a party for president with secret financing. >> that's what you seem to be saying. >> what do you say? >> we're getting 50 state ballot access, we're not giving a cent to the candidate, not giving any money to the campaign. >> are you being transparent?

>> i think we're absolutely being transparent. can you see our form 990 is on our web site. >> still, the bottom line is that not every donor is being identified. could you get $5 million from somebody and no reveal that. you don't have to; is that correct? >> well, you're classifying us as a third party. we're getting 50 state ballot access -- we're getting 50 state ballot access -- >> just concede the point so we can move on. >> let me ask you about the third party. are you looking for a profile of a candidate, someone in the middle politically? >> we're looking to put a nonpartisan ticket -- >> what does nonpartisan mean? >> every voter will be invited to take part of the first nonpartisan ballot on the presidency. we're introducing more competition into a political system that quite frankly -- >> what are you looking for? your dad has put all this money into it. what do they want that's not there? do they want somebody to the right of what we have now or to

the center we have now? >> at americans select we're looking for oo ticket that can come forward, we're opening up the space and inviting -- >> i'm looking for people identified with this. christy whitman is pro-choice. do you have any big backers who are conservatives? >> we have great -- christy whitman. >> i mentioned her. are there any cultural conservatives? >> i can't tell you exactly how every single person weighs on the abortion issue. we have people working on this project who have worked in every administration since the ford administration. so your accusation -- >> i'm asking if these are people who represent a different point of view than obama and mitt romney for example. what different point of you is being reflected in the candidacy here? >> we see a wide variety of views that are being represented. the one unifying thread is they want to see solutions based governments come forward in a

political system right now that's run by the fringes of either party. >> it seems to me that right now we have a pretty active debate in washington about taxation, the so being in the middle, does it give you success of bringing together -- >> let's get back to something that affects my feelings. my problem with third party candidates, if i saw the right one, i would get excited about the person, but they give people an opportunity to avoid a choice. they voted for john anderson which was avoiding a choice. they often didn't like carter and reagan and they took a bye. they took the day off politically and voted for someone who was not going to win. with ross perot, they were voting for someone who was not going to win.

i don't like people avoiding a vote. you have to choose. if you can't get 37% or close to 40% you can't get the electoral votes. you are denying someone a vote. how do you know you are not going to throw the election to one of the two candidates. >> i don't like a system that told me my only choice is say republican or a democrat. >> do you really offer the voters a choice of who is going to win or who will spoil? >> we offer the vote of eers a choice to come and put forward the candidates who are running through america. >> the candidate you put forward is not getting up to 35 or 40%. they are clearly not going to win. are you going to poll them because it's going to be -- it's going to be a spoiler. >> here's the scenario. what's to prevent ron paul whose people are very organized and

working on the internet after coming out of the race and flooding your event and being the third party ticket. you are not really expanding the choices out there that much. >> there is a lot of fear to see any entity that can be credit outside of the party. we have two parties. >> i'm talking about having a chance. >> we have a two-party system that is failing. the genius is that the last self-creeking system is the american people. nothing in our founding do you means that said the two parties have to exist. when they are failing and we are spending our thanksgiving weekend with no solutions to the problems, why can't the american people self-correct? >> why does having ron paul on the ticket change the things? i'm not scared, i'm using it as an example. >> every other aspect of our lives. >> i don't believe it's good in

every aspect, but i'm saying -- >> let me ask you about this. the american people said 86% said too much big business influence. your dad through in $5 million. you are influencing politics. >> let me answer the question. we have a system where the party is on the ballot and there is a significant barrier. the reason you can see a third party candidate come forward is they have the resources to remove that. all we are doing is removing the barrier to entry. every candidate has to file. >> why don't you do this -- >> i want to know how this is going because it's interesting. >> we are going to keep talking about this. there no barriers to entry in this show, but i worry about spoilers and what nader did in the 2000 race.

that was not good. >> let's talk about it. >> thank you for accepting our invitation. you are always welcome and you are a good guy. the stakes for the republicans running for p. this january and beyond. you are watching haushl on msnbc. otes, and hundreds of volunteer hours, into a real difference for over 100,000 people. what's next? tell us on facebook. i took some steep risks in my teens. i'd never ride without one now. and since my doctor prescribed lipitor, i won't go without it for my high cholesterol and my risk of heart attack. why kid myself? diet and exercise weren't lowering my cholesterol enough. now i'm eating healthier, exercising more, taking lipitor. numbers don't lie. my cholesterol's stayed down. lipitor is fda approved to reduce the risk of heart attack and stroke in patients who have heart disease or risk factors for heart disease. it's backed by over 19 years of research.

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>> january does promise to be make or break for many of the candidates hoping to be the

november challenger of president obama. it is more likely to be breaking than making them. that's true even if mitt romney pulls an upset and wins the iowa caucuses. here's an early line of what could happen. michele bachmann and former pennsylvania senator rick santorum make strong appeals to the religious and cultural right. they need to do well on january 3rd if they are to win recognition as real contenders. the same goes for different reasons. the following tuesday, january 10th in new hampshire. romney was governor and enjoyed overwhelming press coverage in his time in office. he is a new england republican. john huntsman needs to be the candidate who does the damaging. this is zero sum. if romney wins, huntsman is not really? anymore. if romney loses, he is doo doo.

if he loses to huntsman, one man will be delirious in victory and the other in defeat. this has become the make or great state. this is the last chance for the republican conservatives on the right to show who is tops. if perry loses, he is well on the way out of the race. if he wins he is the number one challenger to romney again. the same for herman cain. i'm not talking about newt gingrich. he can win anywhere and lose anywhere, but he needs to come in among the top three. he is primarily a debater candidate therefore can hang in there and become the anti-romney after the others are knocked out. florida, the last of the big four contest at the end of the month and could be the decider. if mitt romney win there is in florida, this could be the guarantor, still battling it out with gingrich with perry or cain. it's possible that this fight for th