tha thank you for watching. i'm reverend al sharpton. "hardball" starts right now. nah. president cain? nah. citizen cain. let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews down in washington. again, leading out of tonight, is cain still able? yes, this might be the end for herman cain. national review online broke the story that cain told a campaign conference call that he again denies unequivocally the claim by a woman that they carried on a long-term affair, but cain also said that he was re-assessing his campaign. when candidates say they're re-assessing, it usually translates to i'm out. and that's our top story tonight. if cain does drop out, and it looks good he will, who stands to pick up his support? it could be the current gop

poster boy, newt gingrich. but with so many republicans saying anyone but mitt, isn't newt the logical choice? so the obama campaign right now is focusing its energy and charges at mitt romney. it's a win-win strategy for them. help newt knock him out now or finish him off yourself in november. the dnc has put out a second anti-mitt video in two days. this one taking romney to task for his dishonest ad last week, and wait until you see stephen colbert's takedown of that romney ad. it's in the sideshow. finally, let me finish tonight with this exit of barney frank and this rise of newt. talk about bad tidings of the season. we start with the possible end to the herman cain campaign. dana milbank is a "washington post" columnist and satirist, and jim vandehei is editor in chief for politico. it's very hard -- let me go to the hard news reporter now for the entire organ of politico. jim, thank you for joining us. you've got the entire resources of politico working this story, i assume. yesterday cain said he would not

drop out of the race as long as his wife remained behind him. but this morning in a conference call with his staff, herman cain said he would be re-assessing his campaign. according to "national review" online, cain said, "now with this latest one, we have to do an assessment as to whether or not this is going to create too much of a cloud in some people's minds as to whether or not they would be able to support us going forth." that was well stated, but what a mess for him. jim? is he out or what? >> don't know. i think we should know probably, if not in the next 24 hours, by the end of the week. my understanding is he'll be on fox tomorrow and is going to address some of this and probably address his viability and willingness to stay into the race. his biggest problem is you've got conservatives now who are openly saying, hey, enough. this is really problematic. you saw this from former governor huckabee, a presidential candidate last time around. you even saw some backtracking from sean hannity last night and a lot of conservatives today talking about how what a

distraction this is. jon huntsman, one of his fellow gop competitors saying, you know what, this just might be too much and he has to come out and address this and maybe get out, because it's such a distraction. and that's the big problem for him, because until today, he's been able to survive, i think much worse allegations. what we're talking about here is having an affair, a consensual affair. we're not talking about sexual harassment, which to me is a whole different category and much more problematic and certainly troublesome for his campaign long term, but for some reason this, woman coming public, saying that they had a 13-year consensual affair, seems to have pushed a lot of people over the edge that were wobbly on whether or not they could be with him and could suspend belief to believe him. >> yeah. of course, dana, there were different standards of different occasions here. one was workplace behavior, which involves inappropriate behavior as well as bad behavior. and people engaged in the workplace think about those things. human resource departments deal with them all the time. here you have a case, though, that the wife has a role in. you find out that somebody in your marriage has had -- well,

the other person in the marriage has had at least the charge of a 13-year affair, you go, wait a minute, what's going on here? this is a reassessment time for everybody. >> oh, goodness, yes. the joke out there is he's going to have to swap the 9-9-9 plan for a 911 plan right now, because this thing is going down in a hurry. and, i mean, all indications are -- first of all, this was over before the latest allegations came out. >> but this seems to have ended, if you believe the woman, and she seems credible, this thing ended just in time for the campaign to begin. like, break a leg, herman. you're starting a presidential campaign. >> but it's not any one of these things. it's the cumulative effect of him not being able to answer all the questions of the sexual harassment and all this. he's still talking about a cloud over him. this is a typhoon. >> can i ask the question we all ask about politicians -- what was he thinking? back to you, vandehei. he begins a campaign, you usually are told by your people, hire an op to go in and do some opposition on you, and you pay the guy $50,000 and say, find out everything you can about me, because they will. he didn't have to ask anybody to do that. he was his own expert.

right? >> it beats the heck out of me. we scratch our head every single time, like thinking about the john edwards episode, like what in the hell are they thinking, that they think they can get away with this kind of stuff, and part of it it's just hubris. to run requires an enormous ego to think that we can be the president of the united states, that you think you're bigger and better than others. and it creates blinders. he was told the stuff was going to come out. he knew the sexual harassment charges were out there swirling about from the past and they would become an issue. and he reassured everyone saying, listen, it's not a big issue. it's not a big thing. >> jim, you tweak something with me with this fox thing. usually you're a conservative, i'm not fox -- i'm not knocking fox right now. you go over there for a somewhat softer landing on a tricky day. but tomorrow, i would expect that he's going to get tough handling over there, because he's now a problem for conservatives. he's not their champion anymore. he's getting in the way of finding a champion. i wouldn't expect he'll get any nicer treatment over there in

this environment than he'd get anywhere else, right? he's going to get pounded tomorrow afternoon. >> he's going to get pounded no matter where he goes tomorrow. and i think dana was right before. this thing was over before yesterday. if you look at how much his unfavorable numbers shot up after our reporting and others following up on the allegations of sexual harassment, it was clear the dam was breaking before. this one pushed it over the edge. and it's hard, because he's asking voters to suspend belief in so many areas. to say that the woman yesterday was a liar, that everyone was liars, reporters are liars. everybody on the record are liars. that's a lot to ask. >> that's a lot to ask. maybe they're trying to help their party. republican strategist ed rollins told reuters this week that the new allegation was, quote, the final nail in the coffin. here is, by the way, somebody who is on the religious right, the christian conservative movement, michele bachmann today on a conservative radio show. and by the way, i do trust her on these issues. i think she knows what she believes, and she believes what's right and wrong, from her perspective. let's listen.

>> when it came out yesterday, everyone said, this is it. he's done. and so people just don't see that there's an ability for him to be able to come back after that. and i think that now the field is narrowing considerably. >> wow. and here's mike huckabee on fox news. by the way, he's a protestant minister, mike huckabee. let's listen to him last night. let's watch. >> it's a serious charge. the allegation is one that could upend his presidential campaign. and i think the reaction that he's had to it, when he said that unlike the harassment charges, which he denied, he said this was a private matter. in essence, he may have given an answer that will be very difficult for him to work himself out of. i think this is the most damaging allegation that has been made to date, no question about it. >> well, mike huckabee just made it more damaging by saying he said something he didn't. it wasn't he, herman cain, who said that it was a private matter. it was his lawyer. he said it wasn't a matter at all, it didn't happen. he put the knife in.

>> and mike huckabee carries a lot of weight with the christian conservatives and in iowa. and you have this cumulative effect. and whatever the few stragglers still sticking around with herman cain are going to have doubts. and certainly, you know, there may be ideological bias that might make fox pre-disposed to herman cain, but much more important than that is the combative bias. you know, there's blood in the water now. and this is just not going to stop until he ends it. >> jim, let's talk about this as journalists. generally, i don't think journalists go looking around for somebody having an affair, if it has nothing to do with public business, nothing to do with your office, not a lobbyist or a staffer, not an hr issue. i don't think people go looking for that stuff. but once confronted with it, it becomes a reality. we're talking here about the christian right. they do take this, as most people in this country watching take it very seriously. we're talking about an affair here of long-standing. it seems to me that now all eyes are on mrs. cain, right? she's got to make a call here. >> right, and she's very forceful. >> and she's going to say, i

don't want more of this stuff. and i may not want more of you, buddy. i have no idea how the personal part of this breaks out, but that has become the theater we're watching right now unfortunately for the people involved. >> and she offered a very, i thought, convincing and powerful defense of herman cain during a few weeks back when she was on fox talking about these allegations and that she didn't believe any of them. so no doubt she factors more importantly than anybody else in how she responds to this. there is an irony here, in what you just played from mike huckabee and from others, in that they're lamenting the sexual affair, the consensual affair. well, that support in all likelihood is going to go to newt gingrich who himself has confessed to having an affair who was a congressional staffer. >> but not this week. i don't want to be too sarcastic, but there is a statute of limitations on these things.

>> and there's no doubt that i think most voters are forgiving voters, and i think newt gingrich probably can overcome it. but there was an iowa conservative who yesterday did this straw poll of a small number in iowa, and every single one of those conservatives said that newt gingrich's affairs in the past are a huge problem for him in the state. so i don't think you can dismiss it in the minds of evangelical voters. it is an important element. not a killer, not a deal killer for newt gingrich, but undoubtedly something that sort of factors into the equation when people are thinking can i go with him or can i not go with him? >> we'll go that that segment right after the break, talk about who wins here. while you're on this subject of newt, it does seem interesting. what they're really looking for, the republican party right now is not some head of state, someone to represent the american people and our republic and the white house and make us proud to be americans. right now they have a particularly lethal goal. they want a hired gun, they want somebody to go out there on that debate stage next summer and fall and kill, basically, obama rhetorically. they want somebody who goes in there and is smarter than him,

at least as smart as him, and takes him apart. and they don't think romney necessarily has the goods to go in there, the chops to do it on that stage. whereas newt does. >> well, i mean, romney has proven himself to be an excellent debater, and i think that is what is behind mcquaid and the new hampshire -- >> often fixed piece debater. often fixed pieces. >> yes, he is. but the other problem is newt can get in a debate and become the professor and pedantic. we all thought al gore was a terrific debater, until he actually got on the presidential -- >> he beat ross perot. >> well -- >> on larry king, he sure did. he talked into the back of his head for about half an hour. it was a great debate. jim vandehei, thank you, we love politico here. we love "the washington post." coming up, the big question, who gains and who loses if herman cain drops out? we really like this politically, it's our bread and butter. who wins right now? it looks like the newtster, because nobody likes the other candidates, and it's all about who can beat president obama,

and they don't seem to like mitt romney in the conservative world at all. the dog doesn't like the dog food. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. is...competency. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm getting an upgrade. [ male announcer ] as you wish, business pro. as you wish. go national. go like a pro. now through january earn a free day with every two rentals. find out more at nationalcar.com. o i've tried it. but nothing's helped me beat my back pain. then i tried this. it's salonpas. this is the relief i've been looking for. salonpas has 2 powerful pain fighting ingredients that work for up to 12 hours. and my pharmacist told me it's the only otc pain patch approved for sale using the same rigorous clinical testing that's required for prescription pain medications. proven. powerful. safe. salonpas.

tonight i'm going to be speaking about my book, "jack kennedy: elusive hero," at the legendry politics and prose book store here in washington, d.c. tomorrow. tonight i'll be speaking to a big audience up in boston at the john f. kennedy library itself. on thursday, i'll be addressing a big public forum at springfield, massachusetts, and on friday, it's on to portsmouth, new hampshire. speaking at writers on a new new england stage. then on saturday i'll be in rhode island at barrington books. i've got to tell you. i can't think of anything more historic or thrilling than a swing through new england talking about the president so close to that part of the country's heart. we'll be right back. to louisia. they came to see us in florida...louisia. make that alabama... make that mississippi. the best part of the gulf is wherever you choose... and now is a great time to discover it. this year millions of people did. we set all kinds of records. next year we're out to do even better. so come on down

to louisiana... florida... alabama... mississippi. we can't wait to see you. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home. i'm an expert on softball. and tea parties. i'll have more awkward conversations than i'm equipped for because i'm raising two girls on my own. i'll worry about the economy more than a few times before they're grown. but it's for them, so i've found a way. who matters most to you says the most about you. massmutual is owned by our policyholders so they matter most to us. massmutual. we'll help you get there.

welcome back to "hardball." with herman cain on the ropes, let's take a look at what i call the eastern and western conferences of the gop presidential race.

from the western conference come the hard right social conservatives, plus the libertarian ron paul. at various times, michele bachmann, rick perry, and cain have all been front-runners there. in the eastern conference are the more traditional republican conservatives, many of them more socially moderate. two of them are already gone. tim pawlenty has already dropped out, and chris christie never jumped into the race. so if herman cain exits the race, where are his supporters likely to go? chris cillizza is an msnbc contributor and managing editor of postpolitics.com. and susan page is washington bureau chief for "usa today." chris cillizza, i guess i have to ask you, quite simply, who wins if cain loses? if he has to drop out and become, for the rest of his life, as we call him, citizen cain, not president cain? >> i think the obvious and probably right answer, chris, is newt gingrich. because as you point out in your western conference, there's a lot of people over there who are trying to get that vote. i would put newt -- you have

newt in the eastern conference, i would put him kind of in between. i think he's trying to get that social conservative tea party vote, too, though he is clearly a member of the establishment. he's the momentum guy at the moment. he's the next guy in line after donald trump, michele bachmann, and herman cain, the kind of anti-romney conservative. i think to the extent that there's a momentum candidate, conservatives are looking for someone who isn't named romney, who can win the nomination and be credible against barack obama, that's probably newt gingrich. i want to point out, chris. but there was a pew poll conducted last week. people who named herman cain as their first choice, their second choice split between romney and gingrich. it's not as simple as gingrich gets all of the herman cain supporters. i think they will probably go a lot of different places. but i think these are people who jumped on the cain train, pardon that terrible pun, but jumped on because he was the momentum candidate and now gingrich is that candidate, so it's an easy transition for them. >> i would be a lot less hesitant than you.

i think they're heading towards the guy who's the hot hand right now. susan, i want you to respond on what gingrich said today about it may be the end of the line for herman cain. boy, is he handling this well. >> let me just say very briefly on herman cain, since all of you otherwise will ask me, i think it's a very difficult situation for he and his family. my heart goes out to them. i hope that he reaches whatever is the right decision for that, and beyond that i'm not going to have any comment. i think it's his decision to make and he has to do what he thinks is best. >> pure excellent politics, right, susan? >> and you know, gingrich has been preparing for this moment from the start. he's made a big point of being nice to herman cain, deferential to herman cain. he did that debate with herman cain, if you'll remember, because he figured the day might welcome when he wanted, if not herman cain's endorsement, at least good feelings of support of people who had been drawn to herman cain. >> he's handled this so well. look at there -- i'm not a

complete cynic but showing such empathy, such feeling. newt gingrich doesn't have empathy and feeling. >> i don't know about that, but this -- >> oh! >> this is a tricky area for him as well, because he's had marital -- >> what a smart move. he not only shows empathy but shows a lack of moral superiority which is appropriate in this case. listen to michele bachmann, who wasted no time trying to bury herman cain. let's listen to her, because this is her territory, this christian conservative turf. >> if, in fact, herman cain exits, do you think that benefits you in this race? >> i think all of these do benefit me. i think rick perry's slide in the polls benefits me. i think that with herman cain, and i think now we're re-looking at newt gingrich because now more information is coming out. i think those who are conservative voters are looking for their champion. i've been their champion. i'm their tested champion. and now i think they'll be coming home. >> was that music for her to hurry up there? i'm not sure.

let's go to chris cillizza. i love the word "we." we is always used when you're not doing well in a campaign. it's "i" if you win. she clearly could benefit a couple points here. let me get back to this. i want you guys to look at these numbers. if you look at the numbers right now, it's clear that in all the polls both nationally and in the key races in iowa and new hampshire, maybe not so much in new hampshire, this guy cain has about 15 to 16 points, in just every one of these polls, guys. we're looking here at the national average there, about 15. that's a big chunk of change to throw to somebody. if you just throw that over in iowa or nationally and you just throw that 15 over to gingrich, or say you throw 10 of it or 12 of it over, he gets, chris, a big chunk of a lead on mr. romney. >> chris, i think one of the things that's been overlooked as we've gone through this litany of conservative alternatives that have risen and fallen is that mitt romney's greatest strength/biggest weakness is that in every single national republican primary poll that

i've seen he's somewhere between 18 and 25. he almost never goes above 25. you don't win in a one-on-one or maybe 13 a three-person race with 25% of the vote. that's always been his problem. >> go ahead. here's the math. i'm loving the math. we're really getting logical here. if he can't get above 25, you throw a big chunk of cain's vote over to gingrich, he starts going into the mid-30s, susan. he's way ahead. he starts getting a lap on romney. >> right. although, remember, if cain withdraws entirely, some of those voters will go to romney. some of those voters might go to ron paul, kind of liking an iconoclast. we just think the lion's share will go to gingrich. >> look what happens, though. gingrich starts with a base of low 20s. you throw 10 on top of that, it's mid-30s. he's already ahead of what romney's been able to do. >> this has been romney's nightmare scenario, that there would be one alternative instead of four or three alternatives for him. >> a clean shot. he's clearing the field. what cain did was grab most of

the right field and throw it away because of apparently personal problems here. and that throwing it away has gone to the benefit of newt gingrich, right? >> yeah, i think that that's right. susan is 100% right. the romney nightmare scenario is a consolidated social conservative tea party vote behind a single candidate. newt gingrich, rick perry, michele bachmann, whoever else. mitt romney has to be hoping herman cain stays in the race. don't get out of the race. stay in the race. he hopes that michele bachmann gets more relevant, rick perry gets more relevant, so that they can split the vote. look, mitt romney is not going to get 45% or 50% of the vote in the iowa caucuses, chris. he probably can get 30% of the vote. he needs a split conservative vote to win there. >> you guys go to bed with this stuff like i do. i don't know if you're as crazy as we are, sue. cillizza and i definitely go to bed thinking about this. somewhere in the middle of the night, we're going to wake up and say, my god, there's one other possibility. a real republican convention this summer. is it possible at the the end of this summer -- susan, your laughing. they actually have a convention to say, wait a minute, this stinks what we've been doing.

we've been picking one loser after another. why don't we have a big convention and open up the vote and pick the best candidate. >> i'm for that, you're for that, not going to happen. >> chris, any chance of a real convention like the old days? >> no, susan is right. but i would say, chris, look, four months ago, if we were on talking about the renaissance of newt gingrich, newt gingrich as the hot, young thing in the republican presidential race, we would have laughed a lot more than a republican convention. this is an unpredictable electorate in an unpredictable election cycle. i would agree 100% with susan. it's not going to happen because the republican party poobahs won't let it happen. but this is a very unpredictable year. >> this is the scariest vision i've come across since ebenezer scrooge spotted jacob marley on his doorknob. anyway, thank you, chris cillizza and thank you, susan page. he's come back. up next, mitt romney's campaign released an ad last week which clearly took the president's words out of context, in fact, i think totally distorted them. and now susan -- susan? talking but, susan. now stephen colbert has taken

his revenge. that's coming up in the sideshow. colbert to destroy mitt romney. you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. ♪

[ male announcer ] a simple gesture can spark romance anytime. and when it does, men with erectile dysfunction can be more confident in their ability to be ready with cialis for daily use. cialis for daily use is a clinically proven low-dose tablet you take every day so you can be ready anytime the moment's right, even if it's not every day. [ man ] tell your doctor about

all your medical conditions and medications and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. don't take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. [ man ] do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than 4 hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, stop taking cialis and call your doctor right away. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if cialis for daily use is right for you. for a 30-tablet free trial offer, go to cialis.com.

back to "hardball." now for the sideshow. first up, the takedown. last week mitt romney's campaign drew heat for an ad which dishonestly distorts a portion of a 2008 speech by president obama. need a refresher? here's part of the ad followed by what the president actually said. >> thank you, new hampshire! how y'all doing tonight? i am confident that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis. it's going to take a new direction. if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. >> senator mccain's campaign actually said, and i quote, if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. >> well, in case that wasn't

convincing enough, let's take a look at the counterattack served up to the romney camp courtesy of "the colbert report" last night. >> mitt romney, who gets a tip of my hat for his new ad, which nails barack obama, using obama's own words. of course, the democrats are claiming that obama's "not talk about the economy" quote from 2008 was taken out of context on the technicality that it was. he explained this out-of-context edit in one sentence. >> what's sauce for the goose is now sauce for the gander. >> yes! sauce for the goose is now sauce for the gander. and it does not matter if the gander that the goose is talking about was quoting an old duck. those words came out of obama's face. now they're his words. i mean, just like some of my most famous quotes.

ask not what your country can do for you. ask what you can do for your country. now mine. love thy neighbor as thyself. i own it! >> i guess that's all from the same rule book that the romney campaign used. anyway, next up, ignorance is bliss. not exactly words you want your governor to be living by, do you? do you agree with that? well, unfortunately, for ohio residents, governor john kasich is not exactly a fan of newspapers. here's what he said yesterday during a speech at the columbus college of art and design. >> you should know. i don't read newspapers in the state of ohio. very rarely do i read a newspaper, because just like i think presidents have done in the past, reading newspapers does not give you an uplifting experience. from time to time, people will send me articles and things i need to know about. but i have found my life's a lot better if i don't get aggravated about what i read in the newspaper. >> well, kasich later said that

he was drawn to the issue of welfare fraud in the state, in ohio, when he happened to walk past a newspaper boasting a headline on the topic. is that really something to brag about? that the only way, governor, that you read the newspapers is if you happen to catch a glimpse of one. and finally, oops. that's right, another flub from gop candidate rick perry. what was it this time? well, earlier today in an interview in new hampshire, perry attempted to level with the younger generation of voters, but as it turns out, he wasn't quite on target on just how young we're talking about. here, let's listen. >> and the fact is, those of you that are sitting in this hall who are going to inherit this country are counting on us. those of you who will be 21 by november the 12th, i ask for your support and your vote. those of you who won't be, just work hard. because you're going to inherit this. and you're counting on us getting this right.

>> getting this right. anyway, the legal voting age, governor, is what? well, actually it's 18. how'd you get that number wrong? how can you be so wrong? wow. up next, the obama campaign keeps going after mitt romney, so why is the romney campaign itself so happy about that, or are they? you're watching "hardball," only on msnbc. hi, i'm cashing in my points... peggy? no more points - coupons now. coupons? coupons. coupons? next, you convert coupons to tokens. tokens? then you trade tokens for credits. and then i get the cash? then you call back. bye bye. peggy? hello? what just happened? want rewards that make sense? switch to discover. america's #1 cash rewards program. it pays to discover. selling fishcakes from the back of his truck, and in 1942, of course, they were sent away. after the war, as a japanese coming back from camp, he started a little store on main street in seattle.

of course they needed some money, and bank of america was the only bank who would talk to my father. and we've stayed with bank of america. we have four stores now, three in the pacific northwest and one in oregon. my parents would not believe how popular it is now. i know you're worried about making your savings last and having enough income when you retire. that's why i'm here. to help come up with a plan and get you on the right path. i have more than a thousand fidelity experts working with me so that i can work one-on-one with you. it's your green line. but i'll be there, every step of the way. call or come in for a free portfolio review today.

here's what's happening. michael jackson's personal physician, dr. conrad murray, was sentenced to four years in jail for his role in the singer's death. he'll end up serving only two years due to state laws. a southern california man charged with killing his ex-wife and seven others at a beauty salon pleaded not guilty today. prosecutors are seeking the death penalty. president obama says he is deeply disturbed by the storming of the british embassy in tehran, saying the iranian

government is not taking its international obligations seriously. american airlines parent company amr says it's hoping to continue business as usual despite seeking bankruptcy protection today amid a labor dispute with pilots. facebook is settling charges brought by the federal trade commission accusing it of misleading customers about its privacy settings, and analysts say retail and investments and mobile online presence is paying off as online sales reached a record $1.25 billion on cyber monday. back to "hardball." back to "hardball." we're talking about the democrats now. for the second day in a row, the democratic national committee is going after mitt romney. this time for that ad distorting president obama's words. the dnc's latest hit takes the fight to the heart of romney country, new hampshire. let's watch.

>> in a new ad, mitt romney uses barack obama's own words against him. >> if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. >> reporter: but those 11 words spoken in londonderry in campaign 2008 have now created a firestorm of controversy. here's why. >> senator mccain's campaign actually said, and i quote, if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. >> bad taste in my mouth, you know. >> i feel like it's commercial fraud. >> it's a very poor practice. >> first word that comes to mind is fraud. >> wow, this smells a lot like a win-win strategy for obama, knock romney out of the race right now and get a weaker opponent or soften him up for the general election. in other words, beat him now or beat him later? how can they lose? joe williams is a white house correspondent for politico, and ron reagan is an author and political commentator. joe, it seems to me that they've maybe lucked out here. they're going to have a tough campaign ahead, but here they

are, going after mitt romney with the idea, maybe we can help weaken him so newt can overtake him. we'd rather take on newt in the fall. or weaken him so much that even if he beats newt, romney staggers into the general election a weakened candidate. are they that smart, that lucky, or both, joe? >> well, it seems like it's a combination of both. but certainly, it reminds me of two boxers mixing it up before the under card is even finished. we don't even know which opponent president obama's going to face. keep in mind, we have three debates between now and the end of december, and another nine or ten in the next calendar year before the nomination even gets settled. i think the white house is trying to adopt a very proactive strategy here. number one, to define romney before romney gets to define him. and also, as you said, soften him up for the general election, maybe hoping that gingrich or a weaker candidate can get in the ring instead of romney, who they have a little problem matching up with. and so far, it looks like it's

going to work, because romney seems a bit distracted by this. >> do you know, have you been able to report or can you report now who they want to fight? who does obama's team out in chicago and in the white house, who do they really want to take on next november? >> well, you ask them, and they say it doesn't really matter. but obviously, looking at romney's record as a red governor in a blue state, he presents some matchup challenges for the president in the general election. his big problem is trying to make it from the primary to the general election without having too many more flips on this flop that would give them more ammunition to fire at him, if he becomes, in fact, the next republican nominee. but certainly, you talk to them, they do not care who they face, but obviously, the bottom seven if you will have a lot more weaknesses than romney, and they would probably rather face somebody that they can get a tougher handle on, who doesn't present so many problems with moderate voters. >> so ron, why don't you take a look at this. here's what romney had to say in

response to the dnc's mitt versus mitt ad, which portrayed romney as a flip-flopper. >> i don't know what they're afraid of. they don't want to see me as the nominee. that's for sure. >> does that bother you? >> it shows that they're awfully afraid of facing me in the general election. they want to throw the primary process to anybody but me. so bring it on. we're ready for them. >> well, there you have a little bad recording there, but that's how we pick things up now. he's saying, i don't know what they're afraid of, they don't want to see me as the nominee, so bring it on. went back to w.'s line, i don't know why he went back to that. bring it on. that is a pretty bad experience, that line. ron, who do you think they're scared of? trying to get romney pretty early. >> i don't think the white house is necessarily scared of romney, but as joe's figured out, i think he's the inevitable nominee because the other nominees are fatally flawed. if you wanted to play devil's advocate for this strategy, i suppose that you could say that they're taking a risk by seeming to anoint romney this early in the process, and that that could

even affect the republican primaries, but i don't know. i think that's kind of a weak argument. i think what they really want to do before the holidays start and everybody, you know, goes away for a month and thinks of, you know, mistletoe and things like that, they want to embed in the public's mind this narrative that mitt romney is a flip-flopper, so at the end of the day, whether he wins easily or wins in a difficult run for the nomination, at the end of the day, people say, oh, the republicans nominated this guy that doesn't stand for anything. well, we can't vote for him. >> but let me get back to joe on this. attacking him as a flip-flopper, hurts him especially, not with the middle, who flip-flopped -- most middle of the road people do flip-flop back and forth. to change their mind. they are fickle. they decide between obama and somebody besides obama the next time. that's the essence of a flip-flopper, but the right-wing hates flip-flopper. if you nail romney between now

and the first primaries and the caucus on the 3rd of january in iowa and in the new hampshire primary the week later, joe, you have nailed him as something the right wing hates more anybody. you know, a weak sister, an old phrase, a flip-flopper. you don't like the guy who's a little too noodle like when it comes to making up his mind. they hate it! >> and that helps explain a lot of why herman cain has had his turn in the spotlight, why gingrich is having his turn in the spotlight, despite his voluminous baggage, that they like the fact that these guys come from the gut. they don't come from the head. and mitt romney is coming off as a kind of intellectual. and where to moderate voters being the governor, the red governor of a blue state would be a positive attribute, but to the base, it's an anethma. they like people that can stand rock rib. that's the image that republicans have of themselves, and they want someone to reflect that image. that's why they also keep saying, send us somebody to love. they want somebody who's got that core conviction, who cannot only take on the president, but

present that image of a very strong republican candidate without a lot of extraneous baggage, without scandals popping up every five minutes, without reports that he's not really get with the program. >> and gingrich oddly enough doesn't really fit that bill, even though he's the front-runner right now, taking his turn as the not-mitt, gingrich does not really fit that bill. >> because you know so much, ron. you know too much! yes! but everybody knows this -- >> but people will find out. >> but in this instance, image matters. and what you have in newt gingrich is somebody who will make a bold statement and say something that is complete -- >> he'll go on the attack too. >> and the next week, he'll come out and say something completely different, of course. >> but they want an attack guy. anyway, thank you, joe williams. thank you, ron reagan. coming up, how serious is the iranian situation ahead of the 2012 election? boy, we're talking about the nuclear threat from iran.

now we have these so-called students. who knows who they are, probably working with the government's connivance. doesn't that look familiar to the 1979? here they are storming the british embassy in tehran, burning the british, american, and israeli flag same-old, same old. iran could be the sleeper in next year's election, the fear of them having a nuclear weapon. this is "hardball," only on msnbc. ♪ chips from here, boards from there ♪ ♪ track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that ♪ hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, ♪ ♪ that's logistics. ♪ tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you and your money deserve. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, that means taking a close look at you tdd# 1-800-345-2550 as well as your portfolio.

tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we ask the right questions, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 then we actually listen to the answers tdd# 1-800-345-2550 before giving you practical ideas you can act on. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck online, on the phone, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 or come in and pull up a chair. anathema. with just about one month left for u.s. troops before they leave iraq, today they got a surprise visit. vice president joe biden arrived there to witness american troops pulling out firsthand. during his two-day trip, biden's expected to hold meetings with iraqi officials over what the future u.s./iraqi relationship is going to look like. about 14,000 troops are still in country, down from a high of 170,000. all those 14,000 troops will be out of iraq by january. we'll be right back. ♪

[ man #1 ] i was fascinated by balsa wood airplanes since i was a kid. [ man #2 ] i always wondered how did an airplane get in the air. at ge aviation, we build jet engines. we lift people up off the ground to 35 thousand feet. these engines are built by hand with very precise assembly techniques. [ man #3 ] it's gonna fly people around the world. safely and better than it's ever done before. it would be a real treat to hear this monster fire up. [ woman ] i think a lot of people, when they look at a jet engine, they see a big hunk of metal. but when i look at it, i see seth, mark, tom, and people like that who work on engines every day. [ man #4 ] i would love to see this thing fly. it's a dream, honestly. there it is. awesome. that's so cool! yeah, that was awesome! [ cheering ] i wanna see that again. ♪

your core competency is...competency. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm getting an upgrade. [ male announcer ] as you wish, business pro. as you wish. go national. go like a pro. now through january earn a free day with every two rentals. find out more at nationalcar.com. we're back. it was a scene reminiscent of 1979 when hard-line so-called students stormed the american embassy in tehran and set off a hostage crisis that lasted 440 days back then. well, today, a group of iranian stormed the british embassy and diplomatic residents in orchestrated attacks. they burned british, american

and, of course, israeli flags and shouted dealt to england. this time, there were no hostages, but the incident adds to the tension between iran and the u.s. the incident occurred a week after strong new sanctions, economic sanctions were imposed on iran by the uk. well, it underscores how serious the iranian situation is ahead of the 2012 election here and how much it could dominate the foreign policy agenda in coming years. coming years. many of the presidential contenders have gone after president obama's approach to iran. what do they advocate? that's less clear. we'll get into all of this with robin, a scholar with the international center for scholars and also author of "rock the kazbah, rage and rebellion across the islamic world." and bob bear, a former cia officer in the middle east. he writes a column for "time."

thank you both for joining us. first of all, do we know who those people are, robin, who grabbed the british embassy today in tehran? >> i don't think anybody knows for sure, but the british certainly suspect that this was a part of the revolutionary guard called the basij. these are paramilitary guards that works for the militia. >> by the way, how many students are on campus are sitting around thinking about economic sanctions? usually that's the sort of thing that the government ministries are focused on, right? >> absolutely. >> and they unleash. bob, do you have any other views on that disparate or the same about whether these are not -- we had to put up with the word students for a year there. i always wonder what had that meant over there. is that grad students still hanging around berkeley a year or two later? are these guys students or thugs? >> they're hired by the government. they were sent by the government. you can see the way the police reacted. they didn't try to really stop them. this was a government-sponsored demonstration. i've even heard that people have identified intelligence officers in the crowd. >> okay. let's talk about strategic concerns now. we've been talking a long time

about the iranian effort to nuc. it looks like they're headed that direction according to the international atomic energy commission. it looks like they're going that direction, the question is when, and can they achieve it with the israeli intelligence and israeli finag finagling, the ability to screw them up behind the scenes. robin, you're smiling because we have confidence in the israeli advantage. israel is worried. if they live in a country where people, young people have to build their lives knowing nearby is a country of zealots that has talked about destroying israel and has a nuclear weapon, is it a different israel we have today? they may not want to live there and may kill the hopes of people who want to build their lives there. >> they have concerns about iranian tensions. the reality is the atomic energy agency, the u.n. nuclear watchdog hasn't been able to nail iran for exactly what's it's doing at this moment. we know what it was doing up

until 2003. >> will they ever say, we have a nuclear weapon and have it ready to shoot? >> the big issue is do they develop a capacity like the japan model and not actually build a weapon? >> that's a compromise, isn't it? >> that's a compromise and the type of thing that gives them the sense of security or power in the region but would make it much more difficult to attack because they want to test a weapon if they actually -- >> when we pull out of iraq, bob, interestingly, the president and vice president visiting in iraq today. once we pull out of iraq, they control their airspace completely. if the iraqi government decides to not give israeli planes the right to fly over there and attack iran, to go after the missile sites, how do they do it? >> they go through saudi arabia. it's clear at this point the saudis -- the saudis are terrified where iran's going. the influence it's going to have in iraq. what it's doing in bahrain and kuwait and lebanon which is

controlled by hezbollah. i think under the right circumstances saudi arabia would let them come over and it would happen very quickly and there's not much this administration could do about it once they decide to do it. >> do we need to play any role, any instrumental role in this? >> we're going to play a role in it no matter what. >> do we play an instrumental role? do we have to play a role in terms of logistics, flyover rights, any refueling -- could we be completely hands clear of this thing? clean of this thing? >> no. the point is we're going to get held responsible by the iranians and the iranians will respond. they will respond in iraq and in the gulf and they will rocket israel from lebanon. you know, the problem is nobody's intending to turn this into a general war. it's just the risk of escalation which should scare everybody. >> robin? >> i don't think actually we're going it hato have before the election next year an israeli strike or u.s. strike or military action by --

>> he's a hawk. bibi i have problems with. decide they to it next august before our election season starts. >> i don't think they will. i don't think the elements are in place. there will be enormous restraint, desire by the obama administration to pull them back and in terms of trying to justify or prove iran is at the point where it is an existential threat to israel won't be there either. it may happen down the road. during the election campaign, iran is going to be a huge issue along with the future of the arab world as well as economic crisis. i don't see a strike. >> what everybody has to think about is consequences. consequences, are they ready to face in israel and here the consequences? >> she's absolutely right. it's not going to happen. >> okay. thank you, gentlemen. that makes me feel happier. robin wright, bob baer, thank you for your expertise. when we return, let me finish with the poor state of this country, where barney frank, think about this, is leaving and newt gingrich is thriving. what a country. i've got nothing against these do-it-yourself steam cleaners.

lugging around a hot water extraction unit can be a rush! that's why i'm carpet for life. but if things get out of hand, there's no shame in calling us. ♪call 1-800-steemer. ♪ sen♪ co-signed her credit card - "buy books, not beer!" ♪ ♪ut the second at she shut the door ♪ ♪ girl started blowing up their credit score ♪ ♪ she bought a pizza party for the whole dorm floor ♪ ♪ hundred pounds of makeup at the makeup store ♪ ♪ and a ticket down to spring break in mexico ♪ ♪ but her folks didn't know 'cause her folks didn't go ♪ ♪ to free-credit-score-dot-com hard times for daddy and mom. ♪ v.o.: offer applies with enrollment in freecreditscore.com no, i wouldn't use that single miles credit card. hey, aren't you... shhh. i'm researching a role. today's special... the capital one venture card. you earn double miles on every purchase. impressive. chalk is a lost medium.

if you're not earning double miles... you're settling for half. was that really necessary? [ male announcer ] get the venture card at capitalone.com and earn double miles on every purchase every day. what's in your wallet? cover for me. i have an audition.

real, objective investing help? that's a little harder to find. but here's what i know -- td ameritrade doesn't manage mutual funds... or underwrite stocks and bonds. or even publish their own research. so, guidance from td ameritrade isn't about their priorities. it's about mine. straightforward guidance. that's what makes td ameritrade different. ♪ [ male announcer ] trade commission-free for 60 days. plus get up to $600 when you open an account.

let me finish tonight with this. there's nothing i can say about the state of this country's political health as telling as the fact that barney frank is leaving and newt gingrich is thriving. barney has brains, whit, conscience and a pretty good sense of proportion. he can argue his case but still see the other guys especially if it's a good argument.

gingrich was mad he was made by bill clinton to enter air force one from the rear. barney calls newt the thinnest skinned character assassin he ever met. it's a serious charge and hits home to those of us who remember how newt came to power in the house. it was over the bodies of democratic leaders in charge with corruption. over a democratic party he accused of treason. it's how gingrich gets what he wants. now he wants the republican nomination for president. and he has a chance to get it. republican conservatives have a basic goal for the coming year, win the white house. that means running obama out of there. newt would be the man to do the job. he could be. he would go into debates with the president wielding whatever broken beer bottle his mind can manage to grasp, whether on the way into the ring or already there. romney will enter with a sunday punch, something on the order with all due respect, mr. president, you had your chance, then dramatic well rehearsed paused, and you blew it, perry

will have his unrehearsed retort. newt in the ring will be dangerous, harder to defend against and predict. newt will release whatever charge will force his rival, president obama on defense. character assassin is barney frank's tag for him but it's wise to consider. newt will say what works to hurt obama even if the weapon kicks back at him. he'll take scar tissue to land more of it on the president. one thing i know about newt gingrich, ever since he arrived on the politics scene, politics has been nastier, too often ugli uglier. there's something about this figure that darkens the atmosphere, lessons the spirit. the haters of liberal democracy will cheer his every assault, every rise in the polls, every advance toward tampa where the scene of him, newt gingri, being nominated by a major political party for the american presidency promises a grotesquery to make the hardened of us avert our glance in emba