philosophers that quote pokemon. >> that was the most unbelievable sound bite in my life. >> we'll see you back here tomorrow, stick around right here for chuck. this morning, results of our new poll show gingrich surging, romney slipping and ron paul sneaking up. with herman cain out, who will pick up his supporters? we'll dig deep into the new nbc/marist numbers. want more proof newt gingrich is the man to beat, he is fending off attacks and even some former colleagues are taking shots. is he making nice with donald trump making a pilgrimage to trump's office today and so far he's the only one to agree to participate in trump's debate. we'll talk to mr. trump himself on why he can't convince more candidates to come. so far the obama campaign has focused its efforts on mitt romney. will gingrich's surge change its tune? david axelrod joins us live this

morning on set. it's monday, december 5th, 2011. this is "daily rundown." crunchtime, folks. i'm chuck todd. my first read of the morning, with just four weeks until the first votes are cast and one last candidate in the republican race, we're unveiling new polls in iowa and new hampshire. the three headlines. newt surge. mitt romney's decline and ron paul's surprising strength. gingrich has been the biggest beneficiary of the cain collapse. gingrich leads the field with 26% and herman cain was in fourth with 9%. when you redistribute cain vote tote total among second choicers, gingrich's lead grows, 28% and paul falls into a second-place tie with romney. but gingrich is also surging there. he's at 24% without cain, up nearly 20 points since october. with cain, he got 2%. gingrich had half of that amount of half of cain support added to

his total. overall, the results are a red flag for mitt romney. romney is down 8 points in iowa and 6 points in new hampshire and in new hampshire, the state he has made a second home, his overall lead in the state has shrunk from a commanding 32 points in october, he's now just up 13 points. here's the big problem in the poll. we asked republicans, do they view romney as a conservative, a moderate or a liberal? it was in the '60s folks among republicans who sdribd mitt romney as a moderate. nearly 80% total if you combine the nonconservative who believe that mitt romney is not a conservative in both iowa, a little less in new hampshire, but still a very high number there, as well. this is your problem. in today's republican party, can the candidate that republicans view as a moderate and not a conservative win a primary? mitt romney is testing that theory. finally, in one demonstration of ron paul's surprising strength, he leads by 15 points among young voters in

iowa, with 28% of that vote. paul has been an interesting character in this campaign and don't think he's going to like somehow get out early if he's not winning some of these early stage. now, newt gingrich has become the field's frontrunner without spending a penny on tv ads. a 60-second spot which will air this week in iowa. here's a taste of it. >> some people say the america we know and love is a thing of the past. i don't believe that. because working together i know we can rebuild america. >> we'll have a fun fact, by the way, about the theme music gingrich uses later in the show. in another sign that he and not romney have become the man to beat, opponents and even a form colleague, whom he led as the leader of the 1994 republican revolution are starting to attack. >> he's as establishment as you get. his address is located on the rodeo drive of washington, which is k street.

>> i think character is definitely an issue. >> there's all types of leaders. leaders that instill confidence and leaders that are somewhat abrupt and brisk. they have standard for the people they are leading and a different standard for themselves. i found as leadership lacking. >> good to see the beard back, by the way. ron paul is also up with an ad in iowa and new hampshire today claiming he's the big dog when it comes to cutting federal spending. >> what's up with these sorry politicians about to bark. when it's showtime whimpering like little -- we'll see how paul will handle that and how serious. he has been number two among candidates in ads spending so far behind rick perry. finally today gingrich becomes the latest american hopeful to me with donald trump. trump will moderate a debate in des moines. so far gingrich is the only

candidate to commit. in our new nbc news/marist polling less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by trump. some conservatives aren't happy about his involvement and even the rnc chairman appears to be distancing himself. >> surely it is time for these candidates to do something presidential, stand up and say we're not going to be hijacked. >> it's up to the candidates. i mean, i don't make those decisions. >> this morning on "today" trump responded to ron paul and jon huntsman who already said they won't be there. >> i think most candidates are going to join and i think those two candidates have zero chance of being elected, it makes no difference. i think that they are joke candidates and they're doing very poorly. >> donald trump wants to respond to our results in the nbc news/marist poll that he heard this morning reported by yours truly. we'll have him on later in the show to talk about that and what karl rove said about donald trump's debate. that's coming up in minutes.

while republicans have been fighting for the nomination, president obama's re-election team has opted to keep its sights set on one candidate, mitt romney. but the rise of newt gingrich may change all that. dav david axelrod is here. >> where is savannah? >> she's right now, she's cooking. i think it's the cooking segment, come on, now. >> i guess it's hit the fan. >> you said it right there . all right, mr. axle relrod let start with something that caught my attention in the little magazine, ebook thing that caught my attention in politico. the right fights back. unnamed obama adviser. a bit of casting about, throwing ideas at the wall, win the future followed by we can't wait followed by, who knows what comes next? there is a reason why you only

see bumper stickers that say obama 2012 because you haven't figured out the bumper sticker. >> i have a bumper sticker that says obama 2008. i wouldn't read too much into bumper stickers. what animated that race in 2008 is what animates the president today. the fundamental issue of our time is are we going to rebuild this, not just recover from a recession, but rebuild an economy in which the middle class are growing, again, if people feel like they work hard, they can get ahead. that's what has been eroded and if we don't restore that, then we have real problems and the president has a vision to do that. every one of these republican candidates has a very, very familiar theory, which is if we just cut taxes that top, deregulate wall street, let them write their own rules and somehow we'll all profit from that and that's been proven. >> the case for a second term. what's it going to be? i say this, it took bill clinton a long time. in fact, one would argue they didn't really find their case

until bob dole spoke and they said, we'll build a bridge to the 21st century. the case for a second term. how do you reassure and maybe this is simply an issue here on the new york/washington set, but how do you make the case in a second obama term we're not going to see more of this gridlock, this polarizing, this partisanship. what's the obama case for breaking? >> look, i think the way that we're going to break the log jam is when the president wins re-elections. i believe there are a lot of good republicans out there who at this moment are sort of running for a cover because a rein of terror within the republican party that if you cooperate and if you stray from the sort of grover/norquist line that you'll be punished for that. i think when the president wins re-election, a lot of these republicans will come out and they'll blink in the sunlight and realize it is a new day and turn to those folks and say, you know what, we did it your way

and it didn't work. obstruction is not a strategy that the american people are going to anticipate. so, i think the answer is, let's win this election and then we'll move forward. i think we'll move forward in a positive way. >> can you give me the one line, the elevator pitch of the obama re-elect? >> i think, i don't know if it's an elevator pitch and i don't know how tall your building is -- >> short, you're right. >> the short one, let's restore the economic security that americans have lost. not just recover from a recession, but rebuild the economic security that americans have lost. let's make work pay, again. reward responsibility. restore those values that have made this country great. and, you know, that is going to involve a series of things that are more than a bumper sticker. it is going to be educating our kids, it's going to be research and development and innovation. there are a lot of things that go into it, but that is the goal and that is the north star that

will drive him, that drives him today and drive him tomorrow and drive him until the end of his presidency. >> iowa and new hampshire both swing states. always interesting when we do general election matchups. florida coming next week. interesting to see those results. interesting matchups with the republican candidates. the only candidate that the president does not lead in iowa is ron paul. why? ron paul overperforms. what do you think? >> i think that's interesting. when we geet the general with congressman paul, i think that numbers will be the numbers will be different. >> but he does have an appeal when it comes to the war. i think there's a lot of -- whether you look at some of these independents. they're not happy. >> i agree with every one of his positions, clearly, but i give him credit for having positions that he is consistent on and he'll stick with them through thick or thin, even if they're not particularly popular and i'm sure that there are a lot of young people who appreciate that.

that's destipistinctly not the with some of the frontrunners in the case. >> the president's jauvl approval rating in both states. mediocre, 43% about where his national rate is. new hampshire 40%. not as if your numbers are great in some of the other swing states, but at least they're in the national conversation. new hampshire, you consistently underperformed for a couple years, why? >> let me just skip by that question for a second and speak to the general premise that snow these numbers are determinative and we haven't gone through a normal period in our history and the most important numbers to watch are the head-to-heads and the most important events to watch right now are the republican contests and i don't think the republican party is gaining through this debate that they're having. i'm confident that we'll press our message for economic renewal

and they're going to keep pressing their message to go back to the policies that led to this disaster. i think part of it is that you have a whole bunch of republican candidates tromping through there delivering messages against us day after day. >> why are you the only ones attacking mitt romney and not the republicans. why do you think that is? >> jon huntsman is attacking him in new hampshire. i was impressed by the newt gingrich ad because you talked about he was going to bring the country together to solve problems. you talk about the godfather of gridlock here. the guy who two decades ago really invented the kind of tactics that have now become commonplace in washington. so, this is a whole new newt. >> we heard it here first. obama case against newt. >> well, i think it may be the public's case against him. i don't think people want to go back to that. >> david axelrod, good to see you, sir. >> good to be here. >> i know you might want to stick around to hear from my next guest. donald trump himself. the billionaire reality tv star turned debate moderator,

potential kingmaker and maybe he's running, again. what he really thinks of the current republican field and why he's still not closing the door on the run for the white house himself. plus, compromise, it's not a word we hear on the hill a lot these days, but there could be a deal in the works to get the holiday payroll tax done and done soon. first, looking ahead at the president's schedule, as you can see, kind of a busy, busy public private day, not a busy public day, but he's going to kansas tomorrow. he's going to get his teddy roosevelt on. you're watching "daily rundown" on msnbc. [ elevator bell dings ] ugh, great. you may be going up, but those roots are bringing you down! try root touch-up by nice 'n easy. to extend the life of your color. nice 'n easy has 50% more shades, so you can find your seamless match. with root touch-up by nice 'n easy. so you can find your seamless match. so to save some money, i trained mathis team of guinea pigs to brrow this tiny boat.

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donald trump is not a

republican candidate so opting for another role in the campaign debate moderator. mr. trump joins me now by phone. sir, i am sorry we didn't get to interact this morning, but let me let you respond to those poll numbers, that i think you wanted to respond to that says your endorsement in the republican primary, more republicans in iowa and new hampshire both say that would make them less likely to support that candidate. your response. >> let me just first start by saying i was watching the show for about two minutes and you said donald trump wanted to respond to a poll. well, i didn't even know what poll you're talking about, number one, chuck. i didn't call you, you called me about 40 times trying to get you on the show. your statement is false. you said, "donald trump wanted to respond to a poll." well, i didn't want to respond. your people called my office about 40 times asking me to go on the show. it's dishonest what you're saying, chuck.

i wish you would just sort of say it like it is. i think you would do better. i think you would get better ratings if you did that. is it a correct statement that i did not call you that you called me? >> you called me -- your folks wanted to respond to the poll is what i understood. >> i'll respond to it. but at the beginning of the program. you didn't say that. you say donald trump wanted to respond. i'm doing nbc a favor by going on your show. number one. number two, depends on how the question is asked. i know a lot about polls. i studied polls and you can ask a question. you mean to tell me, somebody is going to be worse off if i endorse them? i don't think so, i have a huge following of people that are tired of seeing our country ripped off by china and opec and virtually every other nation and i don't really think that you believe that somebody is worse off if i give them because i have a big following of people because they're just tired of what's seeing what's going on with this country. >> i just reported those

numbers. >> i just wish you would be straight, chuck. honestly, i think you would do a lot better if you were straight. >> i'm not interesting in debating. i want to ask you about your deba debate. let me ask you about your debate. >> hey, chuck, you have to tell the truth. >> mr. trump, i would like to ask you about your debate. you have one confirmed attendee right now and that is former speaker newt gingrich. >> we just announced it a day and a half ago. >> i know -- >> it hasn't been out there two months. we announced it a day and a half ago, people are busy. most of the important candidates will come. huntsman has 1% of the vote, i don't think he's coming. mr. huntsman called my office a number of times trying to set up a meeting. i didn't have a meeting with him. he went on to debate and said i didn't meet with mr. trump like everybody else in the room. so i'm sure he'll take the truth about that because he's a mormon. >> let me ask you about the fact that you have karl rove. this is what he said this

morning before your appearance this morning on fox. he said -- >> no, after my appearance. >> he was on, okay, my apology. >> he was on after my appear, not before. >> here's what he said. >> doesn't help the country. i mean, if you're going to be a candidate, be a candidate. don't make it contingent upon whether your show is renewed. if your show is not renewed, you'll run for president. how does it trivialize the most important decision us as americans have as who we're going to elect as our president. >> first of all, my show would be renewed any time i want it. nbc is dying to renew me. i don't need to do this to get my show. highest ratings and one of the number one shows at the 10:00 hour. i don't need this. he made that up as you made many things up. look, karl rove gave us george bush. and george bush crashed and burned and because of that, we have obama. and karl rove, i mean, the problem that this, frankly, that

the republicans they have to get rid of the karl roves and they need fresh blood because karl rove is going to lead them into doom. believe me. >> he would like the rnc chairman to step in to stop this debate. are you going to call the rnc and ask them to sanction it? >> yes, the rnc was very positive. very nice. in fact, they had a big fund-raiser at my golf club this year at washington. a big, big fund-raiser. i think the most successful they ever had and you said that he made negative statements. he did not say that at all. >> if we're going to have a factual contest here, i said he distanced him, he appeared to distance himself from the idea. >> he said that's up to the candidates whether or not they go in the debate. that has nothing to do with us. he didn't make any negative statements. >> i didn't say it was negative, i said distant. you want to bring up some issues and i agree with you on issues like opec and some of these international things, but i think there are some campaigns

and i've talked to him about this that are concerned that you're going to use this to push, for instance, your obsession about the president's birth certificate. are you going to do that at this debate? >> no, i'm not. >> you're going to keep it out of the debate. >> look, the most important issue is jobs. whether or not he was born here, you know, to me it means something. i guess it doesn't mean a lot to a lot of people, to me it happens to mean something. the fact that they can't find any records that his mother was in the hospital. that, to me, means something. a lot of people don't care. my big issue is jobs. my big issue is the country is falling way, way behind. my big issue is that the country is falling behind. my big issue is that china makes $350 billion on us this year. columbia, a small trading partner, is going to make $4 billion this year, chuck. and, you know what, when they talk about social security and medicare and all the things that they want to cut back, if this country ran right, they wouldn't have to cut them back. >> is it a simple calculation if

the candidate you would decide to endorse in the republican primary is not the nominee, you would probably run as an independent? >> no, not probably. it may be a decent candidate. i'm not saying it has to be that particular candidate. at some point, i'm going to endorse a candidate. and if that candidate doesn't win and somebody else that i think is good does. i wouldn't do it. i love what i'm doing. i'm having a great time in the real estate. i am doing well. you can see by my statement, i have done very nicely. very few people in this country, believe me, have a statement like that with low debt and tremendous cash. very, very few and i'm very proud of it and i love what i do. so, you know, i would really like to see a great candidate get in there and do a good job. but, if we have the wrong candidate, i love this country. and i want to see this country turned around, chuck. >> all right. donald trump, i will leave it there. we called you to come on to respond. >> thank you. >> that is a fact and my understanding you did want to respond to our poll numbers, which you didn't get a chance to. >> that's okay, at least you

know you called me and i appreciate you saying that. >> mr. trump, always a pleasure. >> thank you very much, chuck. up next, why the idea of a president gingrich is a tough pill for some republicans to swallow. two insiders that served with newt will be here and we'll get the take on the former speaker's surge in the polls. first, what was the first movie president jimmy carter saw in the white house? tweet me the answer @chucktodd and @dailyrundown. great prices. i just wish you could guarantee me they won't be beat. oh, actually... then i'd be like, you rule! and my kids would be like, you rule! oh, load up the sleigh; this is going to be a great christmas. [ male announcer ] more christmas for your money, guaranteed.

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spilled into another week on capitol hill and now harry reid's turn to come up with a solution that can get 60 votes. chairman of the house democratic caucus and former virginia congressman davis both join me now. i want to get to newt in a

minute, but, very quickly, we know majority leader reid believes he has a deal that will get 60 votes and it will be serious translation. last week wasn't serious. >> there will be a deal. >> we know there is going to be a deal. >> we thought there was going to be a deal on the supercommittee and turned out not to be a deal. there will be a deal on this one. some combination. there is heartburn for some members in the washington, d.c., area because as the republicans want to go after federal employees and a difficult time for somebody who services in this area. >> it strikes me, the push this week by the white house is richard and getting his confirmation. it's not on payroll, which leads me to believe they know they're on the verge of a deal. fair interpretation? >> i think it's a fair interpretation and you'll get it, but just difficult to extend tax cuts for the wealthy and cut it out here for the underclass. >> probably going to get that deal, probably not an expaennsi. >> straight deal. >> unemployment benefits

extension might not be part of that. >> presidential race. both of you served with newt gingrich. you came in class of '94. >> he made me subcommittee chairman first term. >> that was the whole idea to bring in the new blood. >> i was elected the same year in '78. the same year newt was elected. >> he lost three times before he got there. third time, lose twice. tom davis, why, you pointed this out. so, why hasn't a single member of the class of '94 endorsed newt gingrich? >> most people are just hanging back in general. if you look back at members of congress and members they endorse. they're all kind of hanging back. i think the republicans had a lot of members are, "a," worried about newt strong republican base, can they win a general. he tends to lag behind in the polling head-to-head. at this point there is a reluctance in office to do that. out of office, it was bitter sweet for many of them serving

under newt. he did keep us in the majority under his tenure. >> martin frost, you have been saying to me for six months, newt's going to be the guy that gets romney at the end. kudos to you. >> i'm not for newt, let me be clear. >> no, that's fine. you've seen, you've seen this. democrats have focused all their fire on mitt romney. is that what democrats should continue to do? >> we'll see, i'm not certain about that because romney is looking a little weak right now. newt's situation is that the field was so weak, the reason that i started talking to you six months ago that i thought newt had a shot here was this was such a know nothing field, he knew nothing about national government and newt could sound intelligent on television and he's accident prone. at some point, a major problem for newt. we all know that. we just don't know when it's going to occur. i think probably the administration is correct to focus on romney. the conventional wisdom, romney

is a nominee. they can't lose sight on newt. >> even the conservative elite, i would call it, seem to be starting to make a case against newt. but you actually got to do it on the air, if you're going to do this, tom davis. we saw democrats do it against howard dean when at the end they went, oh, my god, we have to stop howard dean and robert gibbs fronted a 527 and they stopped howard dean in iowa. is that what we're going to see from the republicans? >> you may, but i'm not sure it works this time. if you look at the republican base of what happened in primaries across the base last time, they gave -- >> any time somebody tried to do that. >> to the republican establishment. they used to with grassroots voters, particularly where you have one party primaries and you don't have them open like you do in new hampshire and south carolina. >> the other thing, chuck y know it's hard to talk about this and a lot of people don't want to bring it up. i did an online column in 2007, the first time romney ran, in which i said there should be no

religious test for a public office in this country. it is a travesty to attack romney on the basis of his religion. i got an enormous amount of hate mail off of that. from evangelicals that don't like the mormon church. i think that is still out there. >> this is a southern issue and the primary calendar is weighted towards the south. >> still an issue. >> i think what you need to have, this thing could go on for several months. >> the secret weppen for mitt romney, ron paul. >> that's right. ron paul will do well in iowa. >> he'll do well in a lot of places. >> martin frost, tom davis, thank you very much. the tale of two states digging deepner to a brand-new iowa, new hampshire polls. big monday here only on msnbc.nm d cash rewards credit card, i love 'em even more. i earn 1% cash back everywhere, every time. 2% on groceries. 3% on gas. automatically. no hoops to jump through. that's 1% back on... [ toy robot sounds ] 2% on pumpkin pie.

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still call him that, will have it reverse that trend with voters aren't sure he shares their core political views. lou is the director of marist poll the partner in the state polling partnership here. good to see you. >> good morning, chuck. >> one thing we added to this survey was this ideological check on mitt romney. this is republicans' descriptions of mitt romney idelogically. let me put it on the board. 68% describe themselves as conservatives but only 19% call romney conservative in iowa. 25% call themselves moderate and 53% call themselves moderate. 18% call themselves, so, we're up to 71% total who do not view mitt romney as a conservative in iowa. lee? >> this translates into why mitt romney has sort of had this ceiling over his candidacy. you know, he was in the mid-20s some places and now in iowa he's not even at 20.

you know, this translates politically into being out of step with the electorate on fundamental, ideial augical grounds. you don't think mitt romney is. there are some votes left over if you're mitt romney but keeps you a certain level where you need to be successful. lots of other candidates dividing up the anybody but romney vote. clearly what's happening it's coalescing around newt gingrich. bad news for mitt romney, any way you slice the numbers. >> voting is always, identity politics are always there. people want to vote for somebody they identify with and republican primaries it's ideolo ideology. let's put up the tea party number here. among strong tea party supporters. so, overall, i believe it was 47% of the length of the republican vote in iowa call themselves tea partiers but half said they're strong tea parti partiers. in new hampshire it's split, so romney doing better, but new

hampshire, as we know, sort of a romney home state. >> yeah, it's friendlier terrain for him and the environment is much better. what you're talking about are the voters that are very conservative who we just spoke to and strong tea party supporters or even evangelical christi christians. in iowa, this spells trouble for mitt romney. this is the group that is sort of out of reach for him. new hampshire slightly different ball game and independents vote in new hampshire, of course, that's a strong group for romney. at least now it is. keeping huntsman somewhat in view in terms of what might happen after iowa, but this is a group of tea party voters who, again, are not the romney base. now, you can do okay without getting the core energy driven voters right now to the caucus, but he's got to have the other side divided up and right now it's not happening. it's coming together around the gingrich candidacy. that's what the problem is. >> there is some potential good news for romney if gingrich falters and it's in this, right.

we asked this, is someone acceptable, acceptable with reservations and we ask, you know, who's your second choice among both. i want to put up the acceptable here both in new hampshire and iowa. the total here, you can see acceptable nominee, 63% say romney, 54% call gingrich acceptable in iowa it's 46% for romney and 54. when you throw in the reservations you're near the 70s and 80s. you add the two numbers together. the number one second choice among gingrich supporters was romney now. >> romney. fats the fascinating part in all this. look at this and dice and slice the numbers and talk about what we're seeing in some of the patterns. bottom line, these are the well-known candidates and these are the ones where people say, well, what it translates into, if gingrich happens to falter, don't expect any of the others to suddenly surge. i think at this point it would just then transfer to romney because he's an acceptable second choice, even of the

gingrich supporters. so, gingrich right now is the only pin standing in the anybody but romney crowd. if he were to falter, as some have suggested might happen at some point in the next month, then, in fact, romney may just have his day, his nomination in tact. >> might be the most underappreciated poll result in our poll is that second choice of newt. there's nobody left. after that, they'll finally settle for romney. director of marist poll, our partner in this project. next week, iowa and south carolina. >> florida and south carolina. >> i mean south carolina and florida, thank you. south carolina and florida. all right. thank you, lee. our political panel will be here next. we're looking at the state of the race without herman cain, but, first, white house soup of the day. really? all right, we got a problem here. i'm guessing it's not tomato today. this doesn't feel right. this feels like a rerun. of course, then, again, maybe it's the six-month-old rerun.

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you can keep your own doctor and hospital that accepts medicare, get help paying for what medicare doesn't... and save up to thousands of dollars. call this toll-free number now. well, there's nothing like watching candidates shower a former rival with praise once they're out of a race, even the hermanator. >> i just want to say how grateful i am for how great our campaign is and all the people calling our campaign offices who are former herman cain supporters. >> i suspect that's going to stay the same. i hope everyone will give me a second look. >> he deserves a great deal of credit for having to have the courage to run and thecourage for big ideas. >> ross is on op-ed columnist and faz is editor in chief of

thinkprogress.org and vice president for the american center of progress. jennifer named former president -- >> communication director. i wish her the best of luck. i'm sure she'll do great. more evidence that they support democrats. >> we support liberal and progressive positive. >> support progress. okay. i want to focus in on our polls a little bit and it's about the issues. i went around about who's an acceptable nominee between newt and romney. here's individual issues. what's acceptable and unacceptable on health care. nominee supports individual health insurance mandate. we don't identify whether it's state or national. 60% in new hampshire say that's unacceptable. ross, both newt gingrich and newt gingrich at some point in time in their career support an individual mandate -- >> but the difference is that i think that romney is still, in a sense, campaigning on a defense of the individual mandate. i mean, one of the interesting things. >> newt is saying, i was wrong. >> he is saying, you know, i was trying to stop hillary care.

it was an idea at the time and so on. but romney, i mean, the fascinating thing to watch in this campaign is that romney, the king of flop flops, you know, the man has decided that he has flip-flopped so many times that he can't afford not to defend, in some sense, the individual mandate. he will say, obama care is wrong for the country and he will say massachusetts is wrong. i wouldn't impose it on the nation as a whole. but if you get in, you'll see him do this at the base. he won't say the words, i like an individual mandate, but defend the concept in individual debates. >> casey hunt on amnesty for illegal immigrants. acceptable, unacceptable? 47% say it's unacceptable in iowa and new hampshire 41%. not as high of numbers as you might believe when watching these debates. good news for newt gingrich? >> potentially. you've seen immigration in this question of amnesty or not amnesty drive so much of this

republican primary so much more. >> it is immigration that has been the separator here. >> it's pretty clear that romney's campaign has somewhere along the line figured that out and made the calculation that it's smart to spend, you know, weeks hammering rick perry on it and look what happened to him, successfully. he sank himself to a certain extent. but romney hitting him on immigration did a great deal of damage, as we saw. i think, you know, if the romney folks decide that they need to engage with gingrich, you know, day in and day out the way they did with perry, which we haven't quite seen yet. >> not sure what to do. >> i think you're going it see something along a similar line. >> let me ask you this, newt gingrich is the nominee. when it comes to, i know there's all this. you have certain democratic strategists giggling in "washington post" when it comes to this. but when it comes to the single most important vote hispanics, newt gingrich is more in line than anyone else.

>> let me say i have the minority view among my friends on the left. you think he's a stronger candidate. >> you think he is a stronger candidate against the president? >> he's more unpredictable. mitt romney is very conventional, but on policy, newt gingrich is a policy conartist and a gimmicky person. when the issue is hot, he'll come up with a gimmage. when it was drilling, it was drill more, pay less. when it was combatting climate change, he was sitting with nancy pelosi on a couch, when it was health care, he has a mandate. the thing you need to know, all those gimmicks go out the window and they are caved to the political moment at the time. >> did we have george will on the panel here? you were making the george will argument a little bit. this is the argument of what i would call the conservative opinion elite who say, secretly newt gingrich is a pro-government, he's a legislating conservative and they believe that's actually,

you can't be a conservative if you're into overlegislating and believing there is a federal solution. >> i think the conservative opinion that leads critique that more, will said, something about how gingrich always has to see himself right in the moment of history. it isn't so much that he necessarily has an ideological progovernment by us, at the moment, he wants to have a solution, any solution because that's what great men do. >> actually usher in a larger government through -- >> no, no, i agree. i'm just saying, i think it's practical rather than ideological. >> ross, casey, beth stick around. trivia time, we asked, what was the first movie that president jimmy carter screened at the white house as president? the answer, all "all the president's men." he saw it two days after becoming president. sending a message to anybody? you're watching "daily rundown" only on msnbc.

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coast. turning back to panel. ross, casey and shah keer. i'm struggling, ross. my apologies if i gar bld it. >> it's one of the great secrets. casey hunt. >> we brought up george will on sort of mitt romney's problem comparing him to the candidate -- chris matthews is going to love this. he's obsessed with thomas dewey. here's george will. >> they think their found their tom dewey in mitt romney. the president is going to run as truman against congress, but that's not how truman got elected. he got ee elected because he was running against tom dewey, a chilly eastern governor that people doesn't cotton to. >> casey hunt, i am reading the david jordan book about fdr and the 1944 -- fdr versus dewey.

i hate to say, george's descriptions of dewey, it screams mitt romney. >> well, you've seen the mitt romney that you're seeing today is the same mitt romney that's been campaigning for two decades. watch video of him from 1994 going door to door. >> i think fans will make the argument he changed his position. >> positionwise, may or may not be the same candidate. >> the person. >> the chilly eastern republican that people can't cotton to,there's clearly something about romney that prevented him from connecting with voters for all of this. >> the best line about dewey, he's the little man on top of the wedding cake. >> that is another description of him. this weird -- the perfect hair. although -- >> he's the mad men sort of -- the epitome of establishment republican, right? which is sort of what republicans look back on, negatively with dewey. they believe he blew not one but two chances at the white house.

>> insincere about a lot of his positions. you can predict where he's going by looking at the polls. >> newt is far more unpredictable. smarter political strategist. he got a path to the nomination better than romney has. he knows how to use political gimmicks. >> casey, what's your sense? you're on the ground a lot more than the three of us had it comes to iowa. what's your sense organizationally that newt can build this? >> we've seen discussions in recent days about how he's picking up the cain organization. i'm not sure what that means. i'm not sure what that cain organization ever actually was. you saw him implode in june. they've been sort of rebuilding one state at a time. they started in south carolina. >> closer to georgia. easy to get the volunteers to shuttle overstate line. >> right. >> you saw this with mccain

where he won the primaries without an organization. >> he had no -- >> this is a delegate counting contest like the republicans have never seen before. >> that's what matt rhodes and mitt romney are talking about. >> as tom brokaw is the first guy i heard say this. republicans will look like the democrats in '72 when only one guy understood the rules, it was george mcgovern because he wrote them. shameless plug time. andy ferguson in the new york times from a couple months ago, he reviewed every single newt gingrich book. reviewed all the books. the standard in the times, andy ferguson. >> obsession with alternate endings to like pretty important historical events. casey? >> the accountability projects heading into the debates in iowa, we're looking at holding them accountable, not letting people say things that -- with no accountability. >> congratulate my friend jennifer pal merry. but you stole that. wish him the best of luck

tonight between hardball. >> blah-blah-blah. another part of the cable box. that's it for this edition of the daily run down. we'll see you right back here tomorrow. coming up next, chris jansing & co. don't miss andrea mitchell reports. of any small business credit card. it's hard for my crew to keep up with 2% cash back on every purchase, every day. 2% cash back. that's setting the bar pretty high. thanks to spark, owning my own business has never been more rewarding. [ male announcer ] introducing spark the small business credit cards from capital one. get more by choosing unlimited double miles or 2% cash back on every purchase, every day. what's in your wallet? this guy's amazing.

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