the iowa gop debate. who won, who lost? is the race for the gop nomination changed and how might it affect president obama's strategy for 2012? a new nbc marist poll just released, and it shows how the front runners fair against obama in a critical swing state. and will the gop block the bill that could keep $1,000 in the pockets of many families next year? i will talk with congresswoman, maxine waters about that. and then a tree without

hoisting it on the car roof. thank you so much for joining us. first up, a brand-new poll. newt gingrich is way out in front in south carolina, and the winner there has captured the nomination in every race since 1980. gingrich has 42% likely support among voters to romney's 23%. and in october, it was a 38-point surge. romney in second with 29%. now these polls also show major problems for the republican party. in florida, president obama still wins over romney and gingrich in the hypothetical match-ups there. the president has 48% support to romney's 41, and 51% to gingrich's 39%.

and then president obama still has the edge over mitt romney in south carolina, and newt gingrich. we will analyze all the numbers for you. let's go to iowa in a face-off full of sharp jabs at frontrunner, newt gingrich. the caucuses are just 23 days away there. the stakes could not be higher. and mike is at the white house. >> reporter: in each of the debates, they really changed the dynamic of what we are used to in the caucus and primary states. the candidates can speak directly to voters, and it's going to be crunch time in iowa, and with fewer debates now, just one left. the people on the back of the pack are trying to catch the front runners, and they are

having fewer and fewer opportunities to do so and last night they did come out and swing at the frontrunner, newt gingrich. the gloves came off in iowa. >> i have always been of the opinion, if you cheat on your wife you will cheat on your business partner. it was a clear challenge from perry to gingrich and his history of infidelity and divorce. gingrich appeared to be ready. >> i made mistakes at times and had to go to god for forgiveness. >> and mitt romney challenged perry to a big wager on the facts. >> 10,000 bucks, a $10,000 bet? >> i am not in the betting business. >> and romney went after gingrich, and gich rich hit

back. >> the only reason why you did not become a career politician is because you lost to kennedy in 1994. >> rivals fought to gain attention. bachmann said she was more conservative than both front runners put together. >> if you look at newt romney, they were for cap and trade. >> ron paul, a major factor, hit gingrich on his deal with the deal. >> i think you got some of the taxpayers money. >> i never did any lobbying for the agency, and i was in the private sector, and i was doing things in the private sector. >> and gingrich doubled down on his claim that palestinians are a quote, invented people. >> somebody out to have the courage to tell the truth, these

people are terrorists. >> i will exercise sobriety, care, stability, and i am not a bomb thrower. rhetorically or literally. >> and by the end of the night, no hey makers landed or game changers were going to knock gingrich off his perch at frontrunner. i am joined by the "washington post" columnists, and yahoo dc chief, david, good morning to you. i will begin with you, david. what is your overall assessment of last night's debate? >> if you believe the rule of presidential debates like this, if you are a frontrunner first and more most, you do no harm. he was able to take all the in coming without being undone by it in any way, and that was his mission last night and he

accomplished that. mitt romney had a troubled night. and his camp wanted it all to be about gingrich. and michele bachmann called them newt-romney. and it was not a clean shot at gingrich all night long. >> how about you, dana? who do you think gained the most? >> i think david has got it just right. newt, by not faltering, sort of maintains his position. one other dynamic, and because iowa is a relatively small electorate, it's a volatile race, and you saw rick perry have a strong base, and michele bachmann and ron paul, all of these guys are competing with gingrich for the anti-romney vote, so that could go to

romney's advantage. it feels as if we are in the same place as we were this time yesterday. >> david, you were there. i want to ask, and i watched this whole thing on tv, and you could hear the applause and the silence in places that were a little uncomfortable, and are there things you picked up on that we would not have gotten on television, any mood changes or anything that way? >> i don't know if we saw a shift in that way, alex. i was surprised -- not surprised, but i took note of the fact that ron paul really did get quite a reception inside that hall. he is in second place in many polls here in iowa. he has a real following here, and his real test is whether or not he can turn it into an organization for supporters on caucus night, but he had a lot of warmth in that room. i think that came across on television, but it certainly came across in the hall. >> how about a game-changing

moment for any particular candidate where we look back and say that was the defining moment in their campaign, for the good or worse? >> well, if there is, it probably would be the one that mike viqueira was just talking about with the wager that mitt romney proposed. the republican electorate here is not a gambling crowd, and $10,000, that's a significant amount of the average family's income, and it made him look out of touch there, and he continues to falter and gingrich beats him, we may look back and say that was a moment where people saw that romney was out of touch. >> romney held his own, and do you think gingrich laid a bluff on him there or not? >> i do. i think that that obviously was a rehearsed line and gingrich tried it out this week about

mitt romney would have been a politician if he had not lost to kennedy in 1994, and that does sting, and you are right, he did give back and the football line was funny. but gingrich's attack there rings true for people, and mitt romney has been at the political game for a while. clearly, every day on the trail, alex, paints himself as a businessman and not a politician. but he has a history there that gingrich made sure they knew about. >> and an nfl wannabe. did that bring him out of touch? >> romney has a perpetual problem. this is a man whose wife imports horses from france and has multiple houses around the country, so he is vulnerable on

the position of being somehow different from the electorate. anything he can do to humanize helps him. >> i will ask each of you to tell me who you think came off looking the most presidential. you don't have to give me how presidential, but the most presidential. david? >> oh, i don't know, alex. that's for the iowa voters. i think -- certainly romney looks calm, cool and collected, and perry looked good, and it was one of the best debate performances. and newt gingrich had a good night. i don't know if it was presidential or not, but it was successful for a presidential candidate. >> dana, anybody looking presidential to you? >> can't believe i am saying it, but maybe rick perry, and maybe it was because he was not over caffeinat

caffeinated. >> thank you. mitt romney scores one of the last remaining endorsements. the mayor of manchester says he is backing romney with a month to go before the first primary. three candidates participated on veteran's issues. jon huntsman did not attend the iowa debate, but he did hold a town hall in new hampshire last night. and ron paul hosted a town hall saturday. and paul was on this morning's "meet the press." >> i have always categorized them as supporting the status quo. how many challenged the foreign policy? how many people challenged the welfare system? how many wanted real cuts? nobody offered real cuts in spending and i offer real cuts. >> you can watch the complete interview on "meet the press"

here at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. mitt romney and jon huntsman both have town halls in new hampshire. rick santorum will attend a house party in robins, iowa. and which candidate came out ahead in last night's debate. you can talk to me on twitter. in russia, people are still calling for change this morning. most of the streets of moscow are quiet, except for one small protest today after yesterday's massive rally. people turned out yesterday to demonstrate against election fraud. they are calling for a new vote in the parliamentary elections. putin's party retained a narrow majority in the vote.

three people killed but no serious damage reported in the quake in mexico. people in acapulco waited outside until the danger passes. and here in new york city, it's clear but cold. however, that is not the case everywhere. a new storm is expected to move across the west coast, and alex wallace from the weather channel has all of the details. good morning, alex. i had to wear a turtle neck. >> i bet you did. new york city dipped down into the 40s this morning. a lot of the country is enjoying -- maybe not enjoying the chill in the early part of the day. 40s back into texas, into south texas at this time. florida, 78, and then we are finding the bulk of any precipitation today will be in the south.

some much-needed areas into trks. the system that will be impacting the west coast. early in the week, we have southern cal dealing with the rain, and looking in the mountains of the southwest, snow in those areas. and then as we head into tuesday, we have a shot of wintry weather into the central parts of the country by tuesday. look out for icing, alex. >> heads up and thanks for that. the fight over the payroll tax cut extension. if it's not passed, how much money will you lose? we will speak with maxine waters next. and alec baldwin's cameo with his recent headline about the airlines. all energy development comes with some risk, but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy,

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congress and president obama are facing a showdown this week on extended the payroll tax cut. it expires on december 31st, and if it's not renewed the typical american's family tax will increase by $1,000 next year. and this is what was said. >> if congress fails to extend the payroll tax cut, it's a new tax, an added tax next year for average working people. >> at the end of the day, the payroll tax will get extended, not expanded, and we will find a way to pay for it in a bipartisan fashion. >> harry reid says the senate will not pass a plan to extend the tax cut, because it's tied with a bill that involved a

pipeline. and democratic congresswoman, maxine waters. good morning. >> good morning. >> thank you for getting up so early. let's talk about the extension fight. do you believe an agreement will come and if so at what cost for democrats? >> we have a competing proposal. the republicans already rejected two proposals on the senate side. democrats simply want to make sure that the average worker, that the middle class workers in this country do not get penalized, and be caused to pay more taxes in the year 2012. if we don't pass the extension of the payroll tax deduction, that's what they will have to do. they are going to have to pay more taxes. the republicans want to add this controversial pipeline.

again, dealing with big oil, putting that right in in front of and taking care of the american workers. and so we're going to fight that. i hope we can come to an agreement. workers need a break in this country. i don't know how republicans are getting away with it. they protect always. tax breaks for the wealthiest, and 1% in this country, and last december they extended it, and the tax breaks for the wealthy, but when it comes to the average worker, they don't seem to imp w impathize at all. we need to make sure we don't increase taxes on the average worker in the middle class families, but that's what the republicans are doing. we will have to fight them, and we cannot except this keystone excel wipe line development that goes from canada through the

midwest all the way down to the gulf of mexico. there are a lot of environmental concerns. i don't know why boehner is going to insist on that. maybe he is trying to sweeten the pot because they have so much division on the republican side, but we are going to fight that and i think we're going to win. >> so a change of the topic with the overall economy and how this is going to play out next november. here is what the president said on cbs's "60 minutes," part of an interview to air tonight. let's listen together. >> do you think you might have the unemployment rate down to 8% by the time the election rolls around? >> i think it's possible. but i am not in the job of prognosticating. >> all right. i will not ask you to

prognosticate either, but how difficult will the campaign be for the president? >> i certainly think it's possible. all of the members of congress have to work towards that end. we have to do everything possible for job creation. we should have passed the president's jobs bill that would have created so many jobs repairing and developing the infrastructure, our roads, our streets, all of that. we have to work hard at it. if we believe in what we are doing, we work at it and we accomplish it. we must accomplish it. this economy can be better. if we do the loan modifications and get housing back online, we can create jobs. that's what i am working for, and that's what democrats are working for, and that's what the president is dedicated to. i think we'll do it. we have to. >> and there's a new poll out this weekend that shows 54% of the people that think this

country is on the wrong track, and 54% believe that the president should not be elected and they don't share his priorities. what has president obama done or not done to connect with the american people? what do you think he should do to turn that around? >> well, as you know, this economy went into a tailspin and meltdown because of what was going on on wall street. the products that they put in the housing and mortgage market caused this meltdown. and so we have to work at getting the economy back online. it's not the president's fault. don't forget, the president of the united states came into office with a previous administration who had given, you know, unreasonable tax breaks to the wealthiest people in the country, and they had allowed wall street to damage the housing market with the exotic products, and whether we're talking about all of the

different kinds of loans that came on the market, and so it's not his fault and we can continue to work at it. i think the economy must get better and it will get better. >> but when you go back to your home district, what is the single biggest complaint you hear again and again? >> jobs. people want jobs. people are desperate for jobs. that's what i hear day in and day out. they want us to do everything that we can to get the economy going, to create jobs. they don't understand why it has not been done quicker, but i think that if the democrats and the republicans are dedicated to it, and the republicans just don't seem to be bothered by this lack of jobs. not only did they not support the president's proposal on jobs, which was a great proposal, they had not come up with their own proposal. so democrats are on the right track. it's unfortunate, we can't get the cooperation of republicans.

>> all right, democratic congressman from los angeles, my hometown, thank you, maxine waters. what it means for president obama's re-election ahead. like many chefs today, i feel the best approach to food is to keep it whole for better nutrition. and that's what they do with great grains cereal. see the seam on the wheat grain? same as on the flake. because great grains steams and bakes the actual whole grain. now check out the other guy's flake. hello, no seam. because it's more processed. now, which do you suppose has better nutrition for you? mmm. great grains. the whole whole grain cereal.

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to maxine waters, who we mistakenly put an "r" by her name in the lower thirds, and we asked our operator to drink a little more coffee, and we apologize for that. and moving on, facing off last night, the first gop debate since gingrich leaped into the frontrunner position. and romney was putting an emphasis on his private sector experience. >> let's be dcandid. >> well, that's probably true. if i would have been able to get in the nfl when i hoped when i was a kid, i might have been a football star all my life, too. >> rick perry got in a dispute with romney on the health care

plan. >> you raised that before, rick, and -- >> it was true, then. it's true now. >> rick, i will tell you what, 10,000 bucks? $10,000 bet? >> i'm not in the betting business. >> and also a swipe at gingrich, when he said personal lives should be on the table. >> if you cheat on your wife, you will cheat on your business partner. that should be important. >> and gingrich was prepared to be challenged on marriage and infideli infidelity. >> in my case, i made mistakes and had to go to god for forgiveness, and i am also a 68-year-old grandfather and people have to measure who i am now and whether i'm a person they can trust. >> rick perry led the pack six months ago and now he is flailing in the polls.

for more on his strategy, i am joined by the communications director for the perry campaign, and he joins me now from austin, texas. good morning and thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> i want to know if you heard dana from the "washington post" say rick perry came off the most presidential? >> we agree. we was the solid conservative in the race, and the only one not a darling in the establishment, and the other folks on the stage who have not served in washington, and he had an opportunity to talk about his faith and solid jobs and conservative record. it was a good night. >> why do you think dana pr preficed it by saying, i can't believe i am saying this. >> it's the inside the beltway chatter to some extent.

dana is a good guy. we have to break through. we're in a solid position to do well in iowa and to ramp up our campaign. we have organizations going forward. hundreds of precinct volunteers. obviously a lot of resources, grassroots, and resources to get the message across, and we're optimistic for iowa and the spring board from that to getting the nomination. >> and perry went after romney and gingrich, and is this strategy to attack the two front runners? >> they have a lot in common. both supported t.a.r.p. both supported individual government mandates for health care. they are to some extent, peas in a pod, inside the beltway washington establishment. governor perry has not been part of the mix. he has been working hard to cut taxes, and to cut a million jobs in the last decade, while the

rest of the country lost 2 million jobs. he has been a rock solid outsider conservative in texas, and we think that's important. we think that will resonate with folks in iowa. and we are, again, that's a big part of our campaign. the governor is not part of the establishment, he has been a job-creating conservative governor. >> and your campaign revealed an ad. take a look. >> i am not ashamed to admit i am a christian, but you don't need to be in the pew every sunday when you know something is wrong, when gays can serve openly in the military, but kids can't celebrate christmas in open, and -- >> the ad has almost 600,000

dislikes on youtube. >> this is the governor's faith on display. we are supportive of the spot, and the governor is supported of the ad. he is man of faith and he does not believe obama's administration's decisions on this issue is correct, and obama's administration has been at war, and they are going after the exception where if they exceed, it will put the federal government in a position to decide what ministers are selected in church. >> but religion aside, ray, you have to majority of the country that believes don't ask don't

tell should be where it is now. should get repealed. it's done and over. don't you think rick perry and his campaign is out of step with the majority of americans on this issue? >> we are speaking to the governor's heart and faith. he believes that that division was in error. he spends a lot of time with our military troops, and he commands the forces deployed, and folks are free to make their own divisions. we are in the process of helping define the governor's conservative philosophy, his faith, his outsider status, and this is part of that introduction. >> ray, we have to get to the flubz this week. of course you know they are ratcheting up in number, but this one, you know, a man running for the president of the united states, and he doesn't know the name of sotomayor, and

you have to have a challenge there convincing people that he is the guy to lead the country in the wake of those kinds of mistakes? >> alex, you could say the same thing for somebody that says he visited all 57 states, and that was barack obama by the way, and that same candidate for president and the same president said this week in kansas, i am happy to be back in texas. this happens to everybody. >> this president right now is already elected. you have got to convince the american public that rick perry is the man to lead. >> and we are doing that by talking about job creation, and talking about his heart and his faith, and his outsider status, and it's never been part of that establishment. as i said to some reporters this week, rick perry is an authentic real human being, and he is not a robot and over programmed, and he is not some of the over analyzed and over rehearsed folks that we see on the campaign trail, and this stuff

is going to happen. it happens to everybody. as i said, it has happened to obama who is one of the smoothest, slickest politicians around. it's part of the process. we will let voters make their own minds up about whether they want a job creator, and a faithful individual, and somebody not part of the washington establishment in the white house next time. >> thank you very much for the interview from austin, texas. appreciate it. >> thanks, alex. we have been asking all of you this morning, which candidate came out ahead in last night's debate. here are some of the tweets. victoria in phoenix says an alit kuly, newt gingrich came out ahead. keep talking to me.

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strategy talk now. a brand-new poll out shows newt

gingrich with the lead in two early primary states, and in south carolina, he is at 42%. and mitt romney is at 23% there. and then in florida, newt gingrich has 44%, and mitt romney is at 29%. we have our guests here. hello, you two. nice to have you back. >> good to be here. >> morton, i will begin with you. you served in the house when gingrich led the house, and are you surprised he rebound and reached this point? >> i followed his career pretty closely. newt has had big highs and big lows. he was speaker for four years, and i was chairman in 1998 when

the republicans lost seats when they were supposed to gain seats and he was tossed out by his own people. he has had highs and lows and we'll see how it plays out. >> and susan, i am surprised about the general election mentality, and it's frustrating for the gop, and gingrich could wind up being the gop nominee? >> it's frustrating. they are concerned about potentially not getting the senate, which was on our high hopes of getting, and with gingrich on the top of the ticket, that's unlikely. the biggest problem that we have, we are concerned that gingrich could blow up at any given time. >> despite him seeming relatively calm and cool, and he only flashed back one time, he took a -- a lot of swipes were taken at him, and you don't think he could keep it cool? >> he started to lose it when

bachmann went into it, and that's what people are concerned about, can he keep cool for very long. >> and then it's pointed out the past policy statements and call him the original tea partier. >> i am newt gingrich, general chairman of the american solutions and i want to invite you to a party. >> you know, if you want to create jobs you want to encourage people who have capital to invest capital in the u.s. i will stick with zero capital gains. >> martin, this strikes me on two different levels. they are associating newt gingrich with the tea party that does well in the primaries, and then they are associating him with the tea party that can burn him in the general election. do you think the strategy from inside the obama campaign, they could have honed in on it and that's what they are doing exactly?

>> i don't know what is going on here. i don't think associating him with the tea party hurts him at all. i think the tea party is still popular among primary voters, and could have resonance this fall. there are plenty issues to attack him on, and he has been on all sides of the variety issues, and he was for a public mandate and now he's against it, and he wanted to do something about global warming, and now he doesn't like the idea. newt has been everything for everybody. that's the way you go after him. i don't think associating him with the tea party will do much? >> you don't think it doesn't pay off in the democrats favor in the general election? >> we'll see. we'll see what the issues will be in the fall. i think it's early to make that conclusion. the economy is very important. the tea party took an extreme position. some of them did when they wanted to have the country go into default rather than raising

the debt ceiling, but there is sympathy out there with rebels right now. i think that being aligned with people who want to stir the pot actually could be helpful in the fall in the campaign this fall, so i think they will go after him on other issues if he is the nominee. >> what it becomes is a conversation about gingrich and the president instead of a referendum on the president, which is what republicans want to do. they don't want to talk about newt gingrich and defending him, they want to stick with what the president has done and not have it be a match-up. >> and then the more closely you align newt gingrich with that, the first that mapy pull him don in the general election? >> well, they are talking about the background instead of what the president has done and how awful he has done on the economy. >> okay. thank you. we will take a short break and be back after a commercial.

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in my case, i said up front openly, i made mistakes at times and had to go to god for forgiveness and seek reconconsillation. >> and they are working on strategies to deal with the evolving political situation. and joining me is eleanor clift of "news week," and "the daley beast." >> well, they see him as a target-rich environment, everything from his finances, and less about his personal life, but about his various positions over the years, not the ones that affect the republican base, but ones that might alienate independence and women. one thing he has said is that

medicare be allowed to wither and die on the vine, and i had one democratic consultant say, you begin and end your campaign with that. there's so many ways to go after him, and he will likely say something so over the top he will likely scare the voters. in the debate, he did a good job in keeping himself in check. and the "washington post" noted he writes a little smiley face on his notes to remind himself to come across in a congenial way, because he recognizes his personality could become a problem. >> do you think he could win the nomination, or do you think his organization is too weak to get that nod? >> i feel like all the rules are being rewritten. i think, yes, he can win. but if this does become a long campaign, i mean, mitt romney is not going to fold and leave the

field. he has lots of resources, and even rick perry still has money to spend. and in a war of atreshen, that could go on for weeks, and mitt romney, i think, still has the advantage. but gingrich has the passion. it's passion that wins primaries, and the republican electorate have been telling us, they don't like mitt romney, they looked everywhere else, and at the moment settled on newt gingrich. there's not many other choices left. >> do you think he could beat president obama, newt gingrich? >> it's highly unlikely, but when you have a two-person contest, there are all kinds of unforeseen events that can occur. i wouldn't say 100% no, but i do think that he would be a weak candidate against this president, which is why the republican establishment is so nervous and trying so hard to stop him. >> always good to see you, my friend. thank you.

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it was a six pack on a saturday night. an occasion for the nice and not so nice and a verbal thrice. >> i said i made mistakes and had to go to god for forgiveness. >> they duked it out, but who worked it out. the debate and the big three next. and team obama on the attack. which republican contenders are in the crosshairs. it's not easy being green. what about being more green for america's millionaires? may be harder than you think. it's 11:00 here on the east

coast, and 8:00 a.m. on the west. and the good news keeps coming for newt gingrich apparently. a brand-new poll shows he is taking a commanding lead in florida, but when it comes to winning the white house it appears nobody can get an edge on president obama. mike viqueira is at the white house. >> reporter: good morning. >> south carolina, first up. it's the state with the best record of picking the nominee? >> reporter: yes, every presidential nomination since 1998. newt gingrich now leads with 42%. mitt romney comes in at 23%. rick perry, 7%, and ron paul at 9%. and then head to head in south carolina. very interesting. all the counter intuitive.

>> okay. let's look at florida. that is a huge factor in a general election. how do the numbers play out there? >> reporter: florida, florida, florida, as somebody we all know once said. gingrich comes in at 44% in the lead, and 29% for romney, and ron paul at 8%, and perry at 4%. and obama leads romney at 51%. a mixed bag here, alex. newt gingrich is the frontrunner in the race for the gop nomination. we have been talking about it how the candidates went after gingrich last night, and nobody landed a hey maker, and now as i understand it, right now the first family -- i guess i should

mention this since i am standing in front of the white house, they just emerged and are walking across to st. john's church for services. >> thank you. as mike said, many of the gop candidates took aim at gingrich's high stakes debate in iowa. and this is the first debate since gingrich surged to number one. >> let's be candid. the only reason you didn't become a career politician is because you lost in 1994. >> and i could have been a career politician if i had beaten kennedy, that's probably true. if i could have got in the nfl like i hoped when i was a kid, i could have been a football star all my life, too. >> and another exchange over health care. >> i read your first book and it said in there that your mandate

in massachusetts, which should be the model for the country, and i know it came out of the reprint of the book, but, you know -- >> you raised that before, rick. >> it was true then, and it's true now. >> rick, i will tell you what, 10,000 bucks? a $10,000 bet? >> i am not in the betting business. >> oh, okay. >> and he took a swipe the gingrich, but gingrich was quick to respond. >> if you cheat on your wife you will cheat on your business partner. i think the issue of fidelity is important. >> now, michelle balkman wasted no time. >> openly, i made mistakes at times and had to go for god for forgiveness, and i think people have to measure who i am now and whether i am a person they can trust. >> and now to michele bachmann who wasted no time drawing differences between herself and

both griingrich and romney. >> if you look at newt romney, they were for cap and trade, and t.a.r.p., and they were for the illegal immigration problem. >> let's bring in our big three panel for quick reaction to last night's debate. i am joined by a usa columnist. jacky, who won and who lost and why? >> we will start with the bad news. this was a bad debate for mitt romney. the $10,000 bet didn't play well, especially in iowa where that's a lot of money to a lot of people. and winners? i think newt gingrich, really, withstood the attacks. michele bachmann did a good job, too. i don't know if it will help her in the polls at all, but she proved to be a good debater

there last night. i think mitt romney -- this is the first time you have really seen him have a gaffe during the debates. he seemed rattled. >> and your pick on who distinguished themselves? >> politically speaking, mitt romney lost the debate and lost his cool, and i agree, michele bachmann, she is the little engine that could. she came across as reasonable and substantive, but it was newt gingrich's night last night, no doubt about it. >> and karen, your take on the democrats up for re-election? >> clearly in the primary, it's all about going after the very core republican base tea partiers. if you listen to how far to the right so much of the rhetoric has moved, that tells you that's who they are going after. the good thing for the white house and frankly for democrats running for congress and those

running for senate is they will have to move so far to the right that in a general election it will be easier to wedge whoever is at the top of their ticket against other republicans, because it's going to be inconsistent with what voters really want to hear. >> do we need one more debate in iowa, robert? i mean, it's coming close, and do you think it will be effective and getting more information for the voters there? >> i don't think so. what i am surprised by is how astut they are and how much they do their homework. they go home and study up on the issues. i am not going to speak for them, but my observation, i am not sure they need it. >> jackie, what do you think? >> the thing to note is that a lot of people's divisions are coming down to the wire. it was something like 60% of

iowans were not sure who they were going to vote for. the majority had not made a division yet, and i don't think another debate could hurt, because they are waiting to see who they will vote for. >> do democrats want another debate? >> sure, are you kidding me? every debate yields more gold. what i find interesting as well, with all of the debates, you still have two-thirds of the primary electorate in iowa still saying they are not sure who they will vote for. the debates are not changing the gut feelings the debaters have about the candidate. another gaffe for perry, another gaffe for romney, and we love it. >> robert, karen, jackie, we will bring you back on, and we will grade the debates. and hopeful polling results for

obama, and will that development surprise anybody. new reaction this morning from the rick perry camp following last night's debate. three months ago he was enjoying frontrunner status, and now he dropped in the polls. i spoke to his director about the standings of his debate and the controversial new ad. >> he has been a solid outside the beltway conservative in texas. we think that's important and it will resonate with folks in iowa, and new hampshire, south carolina, and we're again, that's a big part of the game, he is not part of the establishment, and he has been a conservative governor, and we're happy about that. >> your team revealed a new ad about the gays, and take a look. >> i am not ashamed to admit i am a christian but you don't need to be in the pew every

sunday to know something is wrong when gays can serve in the military openly, but our kids can't celebrate christmas and pray in school. i will end obama's war on religion. >> now, right now the ad is, as i am sure you are aware, 6,000 dislik -- 600,000 dislikes on youtube. >> he is a man of faith. he does not believe that the obama administration's divisions on these issues have been quick. >> that was part of my earlier conversation with ed sullivan of the perry campaign. well, up next, arguments against taxing millionaires. probably never thought of. and also ahead, how can the republican from texas play a

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so looming debt and slow home sales and a lousy job market, so where is the relief? well, some say taxing the rich. and some say that's not so easy to do. and so in your story, you say among the reasons it's hard to tax the rich is because many people sympathize with the wealthy.

really? have you seen the occupy wall street protest out there? >> sure. it's puzzling, 60% of americans say they do favor taxing the rich to pay down the debt, but that support doesn't seem to be particularly strong. one thing we know this is still a country where people have ambition, and people still think they can improve their lot in life, and people like to think of themselves as rich some day. and one of the things that goes on, people say it's necessary, and some people want to be rich and they think i might be rich one day and those people will be my neighbors. people think if you set a threshold, $1 million worth of income, will it stay at $1 million or will it come down to $500,000, or $250,000, and that's not a foolish way to

think about it. we probably are going to need more taxes on everybody at some point, and not just the rich. that debt problem is big. >> here is the one that i hear most of all if i am talking about this with people, the money would go to questionable causes, waste and misspent and mismanagement? >> the government has a bad reputation. many people think 50% of all tax dollars are wasted, and i don't think it's that high but others do. and they have more confidence in state and local government. we have seen increases at state and local government, and people feel that money will get used for schools and roads and things around my community, whereas the money that goes into washington, it goes to a big, black hole. what is the point of giving them anything? if you do the path and think

about where we are going to get the money to solve the problem, we could cut medicare and solve it that way, and that doesn't seem to be what most americans want. if we do it in an intelligent way, it doesn't need to be that painful. if we wait until the last minute when we need to solve the problem in a hurry, it could be painful to a lot of people. >> did you get a gauge on the appetite for doing that? >> people who are opposed are strident about it, and nobody likes to say i am in favor of higher taxes but some people are like if we have to do it, it's okay. coming up, lawrence o'donnell assesses whether newt gingrich or romney will provide the biggest challenge for obama in 2012. and now let's go to yes, it's true. can you believe a bulldog named

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this year it's going to be a lopsided wind for xavier, in their building. now an altercation.

this is the last thing you want to see. the benches clear. >> it was a little bloody, evidently. xavier pummeled them on the scoreboard. a warning, but one player and two cincinnati players have been suspended for one game. but cincinnati's coach said more suspensions are on the way. and two of the president's top campaign advisers have be making the rounds to set the president up with the perfect opponent. michael, glad you are here. why do you think team obama is getting into it so early? is it a good idea for the incumbent president to stay above the frey and let everybody

else duke it out. >> the idea is you want to appear presidential above the crowd of people who are trying to get to the point where they can go against him in a general election. the campaign has focused on mitt romney, until last week, there was a big offensive. you had david axelrod going out there and trying to frame the media narrative about mitt romney and newt gingrich, the two front runners. with romney, they want to paint him as a flip-flopper, and david axelrod rolled out the name of godfather of gridlock. >> and then they also say he is real. do you think they are in danger of carving out gang rich as the go-to guy? >> well, the problem is by attacking gingrich or romney,

you are elevating these people in the debate. so i spoke with some of the staffers from bushes 2004, and what they said is we let the rnc attack some of the candidates early on, but they waited until john kerry had the nomination in the following spring to go after him and start hammering him, and it was the same with clinton and dole in 1996. and the discussions earlier was the prospect of gingrich right now, and closely aligning him with the dnc party, and buy doing so you elevate him in the primary status, but are they also calculating and brilliant to think that if we more closely associate him with the tea party, that will bring him down? are they that calculating? >> well, the thinking behind that is being closely in line with the tea party may help him in the primary, but they are fighting with the middle of independence. and team obama, that's why they

focused on romney this whole time, he would be the tougher candidate in the general election, and so there are a lot of democrats that would like to see newt gingrich get the nomination because they think it will be easier to go against him in the general election. >> let's back off obama, and let's not get personal with all of this right now. does that help them and contenders like romney? >> well, i think right now, all of the candidates want to try and focus on obama at some point. mitt romney has tried often to go after obama and they want to push against the president to try and make this as if it's them against the president, one-on-one. >> elevating them, as you were saying. >> that's one of the reasons if you talk to the people in the obama campaign, they say they have been out there more in the media trying to engage in the republicans, because they feel the republicans are not tearing themselves apart as they wish, they are focusing their attacks on the president himself.

>> all right. good chat. thank you. >> good to be here, and thank you. in this morning's one minute play back, alec baldwin, he was kicked off a fight and we all heard about it, but last night on "saturday night live," he poked fun of the situation, he appeared on weekend update as the american airlines pilot, and he issued an apologize to who? himself. >> if you thought one kindle switch would take it down, come on, it's a jewel joke perpetrated by the airline industry. we have gotten away with it, but alec baldwin was just too smart for us. he really is something, seth. >> seriously, alec -- >> keep going. this is great. >> didn't alec baldwin getting kicked off the plane delay

takeoff? >> it did. it was the first time in the history of american airlines that our flight was delayed. come on, sam. we're bankrupt, and how dare us speak ill of alec baldwin and we could not take off on time. >> and he slammed the door so hard, you could hear it in the cockpit. >> when you think you are about to play jailers off of somebody's quiche, then you realize you don't have the -- let me tell you, that would make you slam the bathroom door, too. gas and bloating. with three strains of good bacteria to help balance your colon. you had me at "probiotic." [ female announcer ] phillips' colon health. it's easy to see what subaru owners care about.

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newt gingrich went to iowa looking for a fight, and boy did he get one. last night's debate, the gloves came off. they tag the new frontrunner on everything, from his political record to his personal life. >> you are taking money to influence the outcome of legislation in washington.

>> he's been on different positions, you know, on so many issues. >> you strayed on that issue as you have on others. >> if you will cheat on your spouse, why wouldn't you cheat on your business partner or anybody for that matter? >> who walked away the winner? we have the spin from des moines, iowa. good morning. >> hi, alex. >> i can't wait to tell you what happened when they got off the debate. what direction was the spin coming from? >> well, you know, the newt gingrich campaign is very pleased with his performance last night, as you just saw. there was a lot of times when the other candidates were attacking him, and he handled it pretty well, and he only hit mitt romney once when he said he would have been a career politician if he had beat kennedy in 1994, and they expected all of this going in as

the frontrunner, and he was the first frontrunner to walk into a debate and leave still a frontrunner. >> and the exchange with rick perry, the $10,000 wager was made with romney. any backing away or clarifying? how did that work out? >> actually, yeah, not too much. the mitt romney campaign said the only reason that they -- that mitt romney said that to rick perry is because they knew it would take the bet and it made perry look weak, and the perry campaign said this was another example of romney being out of touch with average americans. >> which of those two spins do you think came out the more prominent? >> well, i don't know. that's -- we're going to have to see how that is resonating with voters. people were joking in the spin room, and with mitt romney, did

he have the money on stage? it was the joke in the spin room afterwards. >> what about michele bachmann. she had a couple wild ones, the win, win, win thing that was totally off the cuff, and do you think that will leave the mark? >> she was the first one to bring up herman cain, the typical - 9-9-9 in all the debates, and she kept sending out -- her campaign was sending out e-mails and she was bringing it up at the debate, and that could replace the 9-9-9 that we were used to hearing. >> the win-win-win she came up with when she was on stage. but her campaign was sending out research on newt gingrich and mitt romney after she brought up the phrase of the newt romney.

thousands of job seekers line up in tennessee for a chance to apply for a job at nissan. some of the applicants showed up at 2:00 in the morning to get in the line. nissan is looking to hire 900 workers. there's a disturbing new trend ae murnling on the jobs front had which is more and more women are dropping out of the workforce. take a look at this. the number of men currently employed or looking for work climbed, but the number of women in the labor force dropped by 339,000. what do you make of this? what is behind this number, which is pretty disturbing for people like you and me? >> there are a couple things to keep in mind. during the recession, a majority of the job losses were lost by men, because they were in strid by construction and manufacturing, and very

male-dominante industries. and now jobs being gained are in the private sector industries that had been hurt during the recession, and the jobs being lost are in the public sector, teachers, other workers who work in state and local governments, and those are primarily women. it's complicated. most of the women who dropped out of the labor force in november were employed before they sort of just stepped out. but i guess that's apparently always been true, or at least is usually true. >> is this maternity leave? >> it's maternity leave, and people retiring, and other reasons -- they may be taking care of parents and that sort of thing. what was more disturbing, the number of people dropping out who had been unemployed has gone way up. that means that people are getting laid off, for example, and they are looking for work

for a year, two years, three years, and then they just say, you know, the heck with it, it's not going to work out. >> when you look at this and its long term implications, how do you see that picture? >> it's very concerning. when people are out of the labor force for a significant period of time, it's hard for them to get back into work. as a result, you can have the permanent under class of workers who have productive skills and have something to offer the economy, but it's very hard for them, a, to be encouraged to try to look for a job again and for, b., for employers to consider them again. this is true for women that go on to maternity leave, and studies show their wages go down and they lose a certain amount of income in the course of their career because of time lost when they step out of the labor force. you will see that compounded now. >> interesting stuff. thank you very much. now for more of the office

politics with lawrence o'donnell. i talked with lawrence about who would be the tougher opponent for obama to face and what is getting in mitt romney's way. >> so deconstruct mitt romney for me right now. why is it he cannot get above the certain threshold with the gop? is it the personality or flip-flopping, or religion -- >> it's everything about him and everything you just said. i have had republican pollsters tell me that they believe the drag on a mormon candidacy in republican primaries is as much as 20%, meaning before you open your mouth, there's as much as 20% of the republican electorate who under absolutely no circumstances would vote for a mormon candidate. and the others don't have that drag going in.

everything is available to them. that's a real factor. and then you get into the fact that he used to be a liberal. and they know it. and there's videotape of him being a liberal. that's the horrible part. everybody talks about newt gingrich said some favorable things about the individual mandate in health care. oh, yeah, show me the videotape. it's not like the romney videotape. i have not seen any of that videotape. it's newt saying little things here and there saying things off the cuff. >> so the ability to play the videotape, as we say, who is the more difficult candidate for the democrats to beat? >> well, i think romney would be the more difficult candidate in all of the professional candidates fear romney more than they fear gingrich, absolutely. all of romney's problems are on the way to the nomination. if a guy like romney gets the nomination, then the things that were his problems start to

become assets in certain ways, meaning the fact that he was too moderate or too reasonable or do in the middle on something, and, it's appealing to the voters in the middle, who he will need in order to win. so gingrich, as the campaign wears on, becomes less and less appealing to the middle, because gingrich is, you know, playing the hard right side of the party very effectively now. he knows how to do that. and it would be much harder for gingrich to move back into the middle where he has to go -- >> you can catch lawrence owe dunl weeknights at 10:00 p.m. on "the last word" here on msnbc. and newt gingrich has been likened to babe ruth. we will grade that next with the big three.

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the poll of the week, the penn state sex abuse scandal, and it shows 52% say paterno deserved to be fired after jerry sandusky was accused of sexually abusing young boys, and 52% have a favorable opinion of paterno. it's time for the big three panel. three topics, three talkers, and today we're looking at the president topping his biggest gop rivals in a new poll. ron paul, getting a lot of praise from his gop rivals. and we are joined by our panel. good morning to the three of you. we will start off with the

report card. it's gingrich's turn as the frontrunner. >> i would give him a b. he has been running for congress for many, many years, and debating democrats on the house floor, and going through debates with clinton in the 1990s, and he's a very smart man. say what you want about his politics or the positions he takes, and he is very substantive, and we saw that last night. >> and mitt romney is in the number two spot now, and how did he do? >> it's the first debate where mitt really did not seem like he was on his game in the way that he has previously. there's a hypothesis that gingrich could be for romney in what hilary was for obama. we did not see that last night, but he still has some time. >> and i want to get to ron paul in a few moments.

what about the bottom of the pack, perry, santorum and bachmann. did they help themselves? >> perry did better than a lot of people thought he did. some of his answers may have helped him a little bit. bachmann did a great job. she started the whole newt-romney thing, which i think a lot of people don't like either of the candidates will latch on to, and santorum brought a lot of comments in the debate, so i thought they actually did a pretty good job, the bottom tier of candidates, if you will. >> want to get to the new numbers here by the nbc news poll. mitt romney is 48% to 41, and

then moving from there to south carolina, it's obama on top again 46 to 42. robert, south carolina, that is a solidly gop state, so shouldn't a republican -- and i mean any republican be at the top there at this stage in the game? >> it tells me two things. south carolina has a very large after r african-american population, and it tells me newt gingrich is not the best general election quam pain against president obama. it's still mitt romney. i think a lot of folks out there will say to themselves, newt gingrich may be better on the issues and more substantive and speak like i think and speak like i speak, and romney can --

he is much more in the margin of error. >> karen, does this put a smile on your face? >> it's good news for the obama administration. obviously it means the administration has got to work very hard in both florida and south carolina in the african-american communities in particular, and they need to spend money and resources in the communities commensurate with the impact the voters can have. i don't see latino or african-american voters going for newt gingrich calling barack obama the food stamp president, and i think they can see through that rhetoric. those two communities, critical in both of the states. jackie, what do you think of the president investing gingrich and romney? >> gingrich has done a lot of out reach even in his role in the private sector.

he has something called the americacano, and has done work in those communities. however, you know, i think these polls at this point, we're talking about turnout here really soon, and that's what this is looking at. i think you are looking at the african-american community. i think since the gop field has been -- newt gingrich was on top, and herman cain was on top before, and now we can look at the poll numbers with more certainty. >> we will be back after a short break. we will talk about who may play the most pivotal role, and would you believe it's ron paul?

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>> one of the things about ron paul that always amazes me, the only thing i see out there is the ron paul people -- in freezing temperatures, they're always there. he ignites enthusiasm with a number of people and that's exciting to watch. >> and that's after the moderators asked him to say what he learned something from another candidate. another good morning. i want to get your take, jackie, on paul's campaign. how do you read the kudos from romney? >> his supporters are loyal. he is staying about the same

place in the polls. he's growing here and there, and maybe some of the supporters of candidates that have fallen by the wayside. you see ron paul people everywhere and that's a constant. >> it would seem that these are passionate people and the "washington post" says paul is not running necessarily to win, but he is running to make a point. >> he is right. take a look at history. there are a couple candidates that have run to make a point. 1972, george mcgovern, and 1968, barry goldwater. it's more about winning the argument for the long hall. and that's what reagan did when he was running for president, he was about the debate and the passion for the incidents. >> karen, also in the post, a conservative columnist said paul

could be a spoiler in the race as he decides to run as a independent, and he said his votes would come at the expense of the republican? >> it's odd for me to say that i agree with george hill -- >> do you need a coffee? >> yeah, and there was a study this year, and one of the things that they found is that there's -- the fractions between -- within that coalition, there are these sort of independent leaning republican voters and frankly some independents who are more likely to gravitate ron paul than newt gingrich or mitt romney because they disagree on a number of the issues. so to george will's point, those are the voters ron paul is trying to go after. he would garner enough voters within the gop coalition to create trouble for the gop

nominee. >> saying that he stays in the gop -- under the gop candidacy, do you think they are being nice to get his voters. >> well, they are ron paul voters, and i don't think in this point in the process that they are starting to go that way, because there's not overlap between -- the reason some people are ron paul voters, it's the issues with the war, and the federal reserve, some of those things, it's not the overlap with some of the more mainstream, i guess you would say, candidates. i don't know if that's the calculous there. i was just going to say, i disagree with that. all presidential candidates are always thinking about the long game. they are thinking if so-and-so drops out can i pick up their

supporters and donors, and a lot of this is about lists. i disagree. i think all of the guys are keeping in the back of their mind they may want to go to ron paul, and maybe not getting all of his supporters but a little will help. >> he has a little money right now, and so maybe it's to thwart off attacks. he has gone after perry, and maybe that's it, to avoid the fire. >> okay, our must reads for the day? >> it's "the new york times." it's about obama's zigzag. >> karen? >> a story from the "los angeles times"s this week that looked at a little class american that was a democrat and voted for obama and then upset with obama and then when she needed health care and was there for her realized he accomplished a lot.

>> jackie? >> two romneys, wealthy man, thrifty habits. thank you everybody for joining us. we're out and time is up. ard. this is ridiculous. yeah, and it's got apps. nice. it's got vudu, twitter, facebook. no honey, not facebook. ♪ honey, you think my sweater's horrendous? cats don't skate. i think it kicks butt. [ male announcer ] get low prices on the gifts they love, like lg tvs with the latest technology. backed by our christmas price guarantee. save money. live better. walmart.

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