>> he is, of course. we're really saying absolutely nothing here. >> yes, so wrap it up. >> if it's way too early it's "morning joe." stick around because chuck todd who thinks we're number one. >> yes, he does. >> is next. >> we love you, todd. >> my wife e-mailed me and said chuck thinks you're number one. we love chuck. he's awesome. >> joe, this is for you. roll tie for that. how do you get to the white house, if you're newt gingrich the biggest issue is swing voters in a general with president obama and if you're mitt romney conservatives. both candidates facing very different electability challenges. our new "wall street journal" poll is ahead. another showdown on capitol hill after the house passes their version of the payroll tax extension with a potential poison pill as far as senate dems are concerned and federal workers face another looming

government shutdown. and donald trump pulls the plug on his much ballyhooed republican debate after newt gingrich and rick santorum promised to show up. that's not the reason he cites for dropping the plan. it's wednesday, december 14th, 2011. 20 days until the caucuses. it's "the daily run down." i'm chuck todd. to my first reads of the morning, according to the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, two leading republicans have one thing in common, electability problems. mitt romney's political action committee is spending millions of dollars in iowa to send the message that newt gingrich will have a problem beating the president. >> why is this man smiling? because his plan is working. brutally attack mitt romney and hope newt gingrich is his opponent. why? newt has a ton of baggage. >> the ad may be on to something. gingrich may have convinced republicans that his baggage is old news, but he's still got a long way to go with the political middle. in october 1998, the last tumultuous month of his speakership, 27% of the public had a positive view of gingrich

compared to 46% with a negative view. 13 years later, after he was chased out of the speakership, gingrich's rating barely better, 25% now view him positively and 40% negatively. despite, that gingrich has surged to become the strongest republican that we've tested since the start of this primary campaign leading the republican field with 40% to romney's 23%. still, romney supporters think that president barack obama would love to face gingrich and our polls suggest that in a hypothetical matchup. does best when matched up against gingrich, 51 to 40. against romney, a nail-biter, 47/45. basic premise there on newt gingrich and electability. mitt romney, his electability problem it's conservatives in his own party. if the raise shrinks down it a three way with romney, paul and gingrich, romney has the support of just 31% of likely republican voters. gingrich leads him by double digits at 53% with ron paul third at 13%. romney's problem is ideology and

explains why he's never done better than 30 or even in that poll 31% even in the three-way and never done worse than 23% because 70% of republican voters call themselves conservative. romney is dominating among the 30% that do not call themselves conservative. those conservatives, only 29% believe romney is a conservative, compare that to the 57% who say newt gingrich is the conservative, the pristine moment where he led republicans out of the wilderness when it comes to control of congress, and that appears to be trumping everything for him, particularly against mitt romney. now finally, for months remember mitt romney's chief challenger was supposed to be rick perry, but his campaign has suffered, and for months they have denied that one of the reasons for all of his oops moments is that it had anything to do with back surgery, even though there were so many moments like this one. >> was it -- it was before the social programs from the

standpoint of he was for standing up for "roe v. wade" before he was against "roe v. wade." >> those of you that are -- that will be 21 by november the 12th, i ask for your support and your vote. this is such a cool state. i mean, come on, live free or die. it's like live free or die, victory or death. bring it. >> so here's the deal. governor perry had surgery in july, literally announced six weeks later for the presidency and, you know, it's a rough time to travel around running for presidency and recovering from back surgery. yesterday on sean hannity's radio program the governor was asked to look back on his campaign, and it was interesting to hear what regret perry decided to express. >> if there's one thing that i could have changed in my campaign, would i have moved that surgery i had first of july back to the first of january. i didn't realize it was going to have as big an impact, and frankly i didn't even know that it was having the impact it was

having on me from the standpoint of just being fatigued and it showed up in the first few debates. >> well, look, that's -- that is clear. it's interesting that he talks about this now. they denied it at the time, and we understand why campaigns have to deny it at the time. they believe you show -- you admit any weakness and all of a sudden you get pummeled more and then there might have been more questions and the press might ask, well, were you on pain medication? all of these issues, so, again, you understand why they made this decision about not -- about not revealing this sooner, but it is clear that there was something up. it is tough. ask anybody who has had back surgery. it is tough to somehow six weeks later start going 15 hours a day on the campaign trail or standing for two hours without moving in a debate. all right. congress will have to head back to the drawing board if it's going to figure out a way to extend the payroll tax holiday before the end of the year, and that's because the republican bill that passed the house last

night is going to hit a brick wall in the senate. >> now, senate democrats must act. the senate can take up our bill. they can pass it. they can amend it, and they can move their own bill, but it is time for the senate to act. >> the bill just passed by house republicans tonight is a pointless partisan exercise. the bill is dead on arrival. it was dead before it got to the senate. the senate will not pass it. >> luke russert is nbc's capitol hill correspondent. all right, luke. a lot of people probably watching this debate and it feels like white noise. they don't understand because both parties seem to agree on the headline which is extend the payroll tax cut, but they are fighting over what some might say is minutia. where do we stand right now today? >> reporter: well, it's minutia depending on who you talk to. where do we stand right now today, chuck, the senate will vote down the gop house bill, and then we have to figure out what's going to happen over the next few days. the one caveat here is that harry reid at the behest of president obama has said that he

will not move a bill to fund the entire united states government which runs out of funding on friday, december 16th, until they figure out what to do with the payroll tax cut holiday. that is a real issue here on capitol hill that's going to be interesting to see how voters decide which side comes out on top. republicans are now saying, look, democrats have accused us for the last six months of trying to hold the government hostage. they are now doing the same thing. republicans are now emboldened after their vote, chuck. honestly the first real win that the gop leadership has had all year on a substantial budget bill where they didn't have massive defections and even picked up ten democrats. >> right. >> they are now thinking because of the keystone pipeline provision, idea to build the pipeline all the way from canada down to the gulf for oil, has split democrats and environmental labor unions, they now can change the narrative no, longer being the payroll tax cut but energy policy. >> what's going to get voted on

in the senate? >> they will vote down the house gop bill today, and that will allow for the negotiations to start boiling up between john boehner and harry reid, the same thing we've seen all year in this congress, that the two leaders from the democratic senate and the republican house have to come together. all that being said though chuck is we don't have a clear pathway forward right now, and if harry reid and president obama are serious about withholding the government funding bill until the payroll tax cut holiday is figured out you'll see a lot of late nights the next few days and i've heard a bridge to carrying over the government funding this weekend to maybe have a compromise early next week. both sides are far apart. look, democrats were winning this issue for a long time. republicans feel they have the moral high ground. what's going to happen in the next few days remains to be seen, but when you have both sides being emboldened, no room for compromise and there's other things in the republican bill keystone pipeline, very unpopular with democrats, reduction of epa rules and de-funding the president's

health care law, unemployment benefits from 79 to 59. this is a country where 1 in 45 children are homeless and doesn't sit well with progress i was. a lot of i a lot still needs to be figured out. >> the public is fed up with the gridlock. when asked to rank this year's congress in terms of overall performance, 13% of americans called it below average. 42% described it as one of the worst ever, the worst showing for any congress since we started asking this question more than 20 years ago. think about it. 75% of the country calls this congress below average or one of the worst. senator claire mccaskill is a democrat from missouri and joins me now. we did the little switch there with luke. senator, let me ask you this. the basic premise seems to be republicans say, okay, democrats, we'll give you the unemployment extension, we'll give you the extension of the payroll tax holiday. we want keystone, and i understand there's other things,

but they want the keystone pipeline. my guess if you send them back a bill that got rid of that other stuff you didn't like but gave them keystone, done, everybody goes home for christmas. >> well, let's hope we can negotiate something like that. i think if i were going to critique harry reid this morning i really wish we would stop with this dead on arrival, not going to go there and begin to have language like we're going to take a look at it and see if there's anything that we can agree on here and over the next couple of days try to come to an agreement. that's what's really going to happen, and i don't know why this place is so set on, you know, looking like we're combative all the time. there -- i believe there will be a compromise here, and i want to point out on this keystone pipeline, todd, that -- chuck, that the reason that this thing stopped was not washington. the reason this thing stopped was because the people of nebraska wanted it to stop. >> right. >> this is about state's rights, this is about the tenth amendment. you know, these guys are so

convenient about, you know, hollering about state's rights until it actually is in practice, and i think the reason we have to slow down on the pipeline is not that anybody is saying the pipeline shouldn't happen but we have to respect the rights of nebraska. >> now where are you on this, and if nebraska is in now, if they feel like their concerns have been answered, are you supportive of this pipeline? >> you know, i would certainly take a look at it. if state rights are being protected and if this is going to be something maybe that we try to jump start the approval process, make it go more quickly. i mean, i think there's a variety of ways that we can look at this, but the bottom line is the reason that we feel so strongly about this is that while i'm perfectly willing to raise taxes a smudge on multi-millionaires, i'll be gosh darned if i think it's a good idea to raise taxes on people who are working as hard as they know how right now and barely making it work, and i just think it's the wrong time to raise taxes on the people who need it the most. >> you think it's appropriate

that keystone is included in this? >> i -- you know, i would prefer that we not play these games, you know. i would prefer that, you know, i think it's ironic. i remember when john boehner stood some place with a book in his hand promising the american people last fall that they would never include things in important must-pass bills that were not relevant to the subject matter, and they have got everything in here, from you know, making sure that people who are 60 years old who have lost their job after 25 years have to get drug tested if they want to get unemployment benefits? you know, they have got all kinds of stuff in this thing that is really bizarre to me, and i think that they violated that pledge they made last fall. i think we ought to get to work, find what we can agree on and get this thing done, and, you know, you talked about the low approval of congress. one of the reasons this approval is so low is because we have a very divided congress. the people sent some very extreme folks to washington a year ago, and they are clashing

with really some of the folks frankly to my left. >> where are you -- i know that you've worked on this -- on this bipartisan bill on defense ear marks, but where are you on the sequester, this idea that the agreement never came up with and now there's all this chatter that somehow the defense cuts that have been proposed will get restored in another way. would you ever support any version of that? >> i think it's a good way to drive our approval rating to zero if we immediately say well, never mind, the enforcement mechanism we put in place ten minutes ago we're going to ignore now. i think it's a bad idea to talk about trying to drive a mack truck through the sequester enforcement mechanism. i think what's a better idea is to use the pressure of the sequester to keep us at the table. i had a meeting just last week with a group of republicans and a group of democrats trying to come up with a way forward on our long-term debt problem. i think if the rhetoric around here quit focusing so much on elections and started focusing

on compromise and let's see what we can get done, it might be amazing what we might find under the christmas tree this year. >> individually, senator, and i hate to use this phrase with all due respect, individually i hear this from senators of both parties. why don't we ever see it collectively? explain that issue. individually every one of them, from mitch mcconnell to harry reid, to you, to bob corker, you know, i can pick out a number of senators collectively we get what we get. >> well, i think what the problem is that everyone is using the rhetoric of trying to get along but, i mean, sometimes not so much. i mean, you know, we had mitch mcconnell refusing to allow to us fix a typo in a bill by unanimous consent. last night, you know, i don't think it's great that instead of using language like i'm going to sit down with the speaker and see what we can come up it was dead on arrival, you know. this is dead before it got here. you know, we've got to quit this, you know, kind of posturing that tells the

american people that we'd rather fight than get along. >> all right. democrat from missouri, claire mccaskill. senator, thanks very much for coming on this morning. >> thank you. >> up next, we're going to dig deeper into our brand new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. republicans aren't confident they have a guy who can beat obama, and we'll look at what newt gingrich could have big problems outside of his core constituency. our pollsters are here to crunch the numbers. plus, new numbers about just how polarized our country has become. what you really think about the tea party and occupy wall street. but first a look ahead at the president's schedule. he's going to ft. bragg down in north carolina in what will be his wrap-up remarks on the troops coming home from iraq. you're watching "the daily run don," only on msnbc. i love the holidays.

and with my bankamericard cash rewards credit card, i love 'em even more. i earn 1% cash back everywhere, every time. 2% on groceries. 3% on gas. automatically. no hoops to jump through. that's 1% back on... [ toy robot sounds ] 2% on pumpkin pie. and apple. 3% back on 4 trips to the airport. it's as easy as 1... -2... -3... [ male announcer ] the bankamericard cash rewards card. apply online or at a bank of america near you. [ toy robot sounds ]

our new polls show a growing tide of frustration aimed at the president and republican candidates. 21% of republican voters say their current field is a strong one. more than half described it as average, while 27% said it's weak. for a closer look at what we're learning i'm joined now by democratic pollster fred advantage and republican pollster bill mcinturf. gentlemen, doing a lot of digging in these polls. bill, i want to start with you. >> right. >> it was interesting to me that when you looked at the responses to those questions by the republicans, the ones who believe the field was average or strong are newt gingrich supporters. the folks that believe the field is week were mitt romney supporters. >> well, you know, i think this -- i think the republican party is looking for the person

they think has the best chance to -- to beat president obama. 76% of republican voters strongly disapprove of obama. they want him removed and replaced and, you know, we have a long process to get to the nomination, and my guess is over time the republican primary voters will do their jobs and they will pick the strongest mom knee to win this campaign. >> you know, fred, i want to put up another number. we asked enthusiasm level of supporting -- of the three sort of leading contenders right now for the presidency. president obama, newt gingrich and mitt romney, and we also could not vote for, sort of never would vote for. that no vote under any circumstances was 44% for mitt romney, 45% for barack obama. 50% for newt gingrich. explain the significance in our polarized environment why it may only look like five more points, but hitting 50 being so big for newt gingrich in this poll. >> you know, i think you're right. it only looks like five points, but the groups where there's the

biggest difference between gingrich and romney in the general, and i know we'll talk about the head-to-heads in a little bit, independents, suburban voters, you know, white voters, chuck in the midwest, i mean, there's a chasm between looking at mitt romney and right now saying newt gingrich isn't our cup of tea. >> bill, fred brought up the election matchups, two things about president obama, the dual electability issues of romney and the primary, gingrich in the general. president obama has a -- seems to have two issues that you see come through in both his job approval rating and with the matchup against mitt romney and that's with seniors and independents. tell me about it. >> well, that's -- you know, the president has this incredibly strong support. i think he gets 44% in a two-way race, three or four-person race but he's got a ceiling and that ceiling is around 48%, and he's got electoral troubles with two very important groups in the general election which are swing

voters, those independents who are very, very unhappy with his economic performance. roughly only one out of three independents approve of the job he's done on the economy, and america's seniors voted overwhelmingly republican in 2010, and more and more seniors are beginning to look less like swing voters and more like part of the republican base that could help defeat president obama in 2012. >> and particularly when you split it by gender, senior men in particular, that are looking more like republican base voters, is that a fair way to put it? >> absolutely. this happened in 1994. it happened in 2010. whenever republicans had a really positive surge, one thing that's happened is that we start doing really well with men over 60 years old by very large margins. >> and fred, you hinted at it when it comes to newt gingrich. you see all these problems for the president, particularly with those two key constituency groups that conventional wisdom says should be winnable or at least potentially appealing to the president and newt gingrich

solves his problems in one fell swoop. what is it, the independent number between romney and gingrich, i think it moves like 25 points. >> i mean against romney the president is down by two points. against gingrich with independents he's winning by 22. the margin with seniors also gets better under gingrich. i mean, look, i think clearly the polls are -- all the polls would suggest that we have a better chance of winning against newt gingrich than mitt romney. i do think, chuck, the first graphic we showed about who would you not vote for, you know, it's still pretty high for the president, too. >> right. >> and i think even though it's higher for newt gingrich and even though the president has a double-digit lead, just the overall structure of the electorate, which we've talked about since this poll came out, is going to really say it's going to be a close election. >> let's talk about the volatility of the electorate. going to put up some numbers here about the tea party, about occupy wall street which, of course, show that there's strong sentiment for it with small

groups of people. 27% say they call themselves a supporter of the tea party and 24% a supporter of the occupy movement so basically half of the electorate, but, bill, 34% in our poll that continue to tell us, and this is i think the fourth straight poll, that the country needs a third party. that's an interesting stew that's happening right now, right? we have these protest movements, left and right. a third of the country saying let's see a third party, likelihood? >> yeah. i -- i believe that 2012 is very unpredictable, and when you have an electorate this unhappy. 70% wrong track, enormously low approval for the president on the economy and by the way, for the second time in the 20-plus years of the nbc/"wall street journal," both political parties have a net double digit negative, meaning neither party is in good standing with the american public. that's not an electorate that wants a choice just between democrats and republicans, and i still believe in this incredibly volatile environment that we could in likely see third and

fourth party candidates emerge. always have them on the ballot, but people that can get 10%, 20% of the vote collectively. >> conventional wisdom says that definitely guarantees the president's re-election but the re-election team yesterday in a briefing with reporters very much seemed fearful of a third party. >> i think it's what bill said. it's a very volatile electorate. i think anyone who is going to say one element will help one or the other party right now a year out, you know, it's just -- they are not understanding how volatile this is. chuck, the final thing i'll say, the gingrich candidacy surge is fascinating in this poll. i do think given the overall broader numbers and dissatisfaction with congress, it will be an interesting campaign against gingrich. you know, in some respects he is the original flahertior of this brand of politics and the question in a debate between gingrich and obama if he's the number knee, will gingrich be

the incredible agent that he can move the country forward? >> i have a feeling we'll hear that argument from team romney at some point very soon. thank you both. a tremendous poll. i encourage folks go online and go to nbcpolitics.com. dig into it all. a deal to avert a government shutdown hanging in the balance. no agreement on the payroll tax cut holiday. and a not so warm welcome as mitt romney hits fund-raising in new york today. we'll tell you how far the dnc will paint him as out of touch. today's trivia question. yesterday we asked you the most senior junior senator and today we're asking you the most junior senior senator. tweet me the answer. the first correct answer will get a follow wednesday from us. the answer coming right up on "the daily rundown." [ male announcer ] wouldn't it be cool

if you took the top down on a crossover? if there were buttons for this? wouldn't it be cool if your car could handle the kids... ♪ ...and the nurburgring? or what if you built a car in tennessee that could change the world? yeah, that would be cool. nissan. innovation for today. innovation for tomorrow. innovation for all. ♪

it doesn't cover everything. and what it doesn't cover can cost you some money. that's why you should consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. all medicare supplement plans can help pay some of what medicare doesn't, so you could save up to thousands of dollars in out of pocket expenses. call now for this free information kit and medicare guide. if you're turning 65 or you're already on medicare... you should know about the only medicare supplement plans endorsed by aarp; see if one's right for you. all medicare supplement plans let you choose any doctor or hospital, that accepts medicare patients... and could help you save up to thousands of dollars in out of pocket expenses. plus, there are no networks... no referrals needed to see a specialist... and virtually no claim forms to fill out. how's that for convenience?

and when you travel, your plan will travel with you -- nationwide. so call now for a free information kit and medicare guide. choose from a wide range of plans to fit your specific needs and budget. with prices that are competitive -- thanks to the group rates available only to aarp members. if you're considering a medicare supplement plan, you should take a look at the only ones endorsed by aarp... these are plans millions have chosen... and even better, 9 out of 10 members would recommend their plan to a friend or family member. why wait? help protect yourself from some of what medicare doesn't pay and save up to thousands of dollars in out of pocket expenses with a medicare supplement plan. call now and learn more about aarp medicare supplement insurance plans, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. get this free information kit and medicare guide you don't need to be an aarp member to call. don't wait. call now for free information about the additional coverage you may need.

♪ opening bell ringing right now on wall street. time for the market run down with cnbc's becky quick. what have you got? >> not all about europe and a new day and all about europe. the opening bell ringing right now and we'll see red arrows. it looks like the dow will open down by 40 or 45 points this. comes after some concerns in italy. there was a bond auction overnight and that five-year bond that was auctioned there rose to the highest yields they have ever seen for a five-year auction. 6 hadn't 74%, up from 6.29% a month ago. i know it sounds arcane but it shows that the market is very concerned about this european deal falling apart once again. want to look for some other signs of that check out the euro. now trading below $1.30. last i checked it was $1.29 and that's more than an 11-month low for the euro as well. all the investor concerns creeping in around this.

the weird thing taking place is gold prices are selling off once again, too. normally gold has been a flight to safety when people get worried about here. last couple of days that's not the case. gold down $35 today. some people saying, hey, maybe we've seen too high of prices. chuck, back to you. >> you got it. thank you, becky. >> thank you. the ground game, the living room visits the coffee shops, baby kissing, the ground game the same but a unique look at how this campaign is playing out on the ground. plus the donald ducks out of his own debate and opens the door again for a white house run, and apparently we won't get an answer until after the television season ends. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. hey, the new guy is loaded with protein!

really? 25 grams of protein. what do we have? all four of us, together? 24. he's low fat, too, and has 5 grams of sugars. i'll believe it when i--- [ both ] oooooh... what's shakin'? [ female announcer ] as you get older, protein is an important part of staying active and strong. new ensure high protein... fifty percent of your daily value of protein. low fat and five grams of sugars. see? he's a good egg. [ major nutrition ] new ensure high protein. ensure! nutrition in charge!

[ female announcer ] we never forget the nearly 12 million cancer survivors in america today... and the countless lives lost. we owe it to them to protect funding for cancer research, prevention and access to care. congress, make cancer a priority and give millions of americans what they need most. other stories making headlines. newt gingrich's iowa director resigned, possibly the first

result of his boss' rule against negativity. donald trump out of his big post-christmas debate, pulling out to preserve his option of running as an independent in 2012. the prospect, he said, scares the rest of the republican field. mitt romney is right here in new york city for a handful of fund-raisers to fill up the campaign coffers. the democratic national city plans on well coming him with a 175-foot banner mocking the recent $10,000 wager. romney is in new york, derrick who covers the romney campaign, is here as well. nice to see you in the flesh. >> this campaign against romania any has been going on intensely for three are four months, even a year, president engages in it even though he claims he's not engaging on it. what is the impact you see of sort of this pre-game general election campaign. what's been the impact.

>> the two things. the questions that the dnc raises and sneaking into press conferences and town halls, baked into the cake that you'll get questions about $10,000 bets and the question is they have to keep fighting a battle on two fronts, hitting newt gingrich on one hand and on the other hand pushing back against the president. running two separate campaigns to keep the fight going at the same time. >> you're with the candidate constantly, not at headquarters. what's been interesting to me is that for the most part, i understand, he doesn't have a lot of the big strategists traveling with him but they are in re-tooling mode. >> that's right. >> clear that they have. have you seen any of the big names suddenly showing up? >> absolutely. for a long time the entourage was very small and now you're starting to see more and more of the gays from boston. stuart stevens, the architect of the romney image in this campaign has been appearing on the trail more and more frequently. up in new hampshire and out in iowa, suspect we'll get to see him again. >> filming new tv ads when they are doing that. >> not necessarily. >> dealing with the candidate

getting better on message. >> watching and being involved. a guy that did four press conferences over the span of two months and now five. romney re--engaging, making friends with the press again is being managed pretty carefully. >> interesting. i've not seen that reported before. garrett, know you had that a couple of days ago. stuart stevens, garrett, good work. talk to you soon. well, in the next 11 months we know a lot of you will be watching the presidential race from the ground up, state by state. well, there's an interesting new website, politics in stereo that does exactly that and provides perspectives from the right, left and down the middle. joining me now is nathan gonzalez, the founder of politics in stereo and founder of "roll call" and senior editor there. explain the concepts of politics in stereo and see if you do a better job than i did, i imagine. >> i know this will come as a surprise to you, but there's a lot of folks out there who don't trust media and don't have a lot

of time to go to different sources and figure out what perspective they are coming from so what we've done is created a website, politicsinstereo.com where we've brought together top reporters, analysts, bloggers on the left and right and non-partisan sources and put them together side by side by side in a three-column format where people can get political news from different perspectives and see it all together. >> the point is on a local level, you gave a great example when you were telling me about this. if you want to follow what's going on on the ground in nevada, whether it's that senate race and you see a great column tweeted in a paper and you wonder, well, is that columnist normally left or right, that's sort of the one of the ideas here so can you help sort of the junkie that isn't a regular reader of "the las vegas review journal" or "las vegas sun" know that this guy is a reporter, a liberal columnist or conservative columnist. >> that's right. not only is there a national page but state page where

there's a window into that state's politics. in nevada john rals ton in the center. on the left is steve sebelius and hugh jackson on the right. orrin johnson and e. crumb and immediately you can tell what perspective they are coming from. it's not to say their analysis isn't good but this is where they are coming from. see it all together and easily digestible and won't give people indigestion as we get to the political season. >> "wall street journal" poll, i know you also believe it's the gold standard of national polling, of course. >> of course. >> and if you don't you'll have to fake it but the generic congressional ballot, third straight poll, democrats leading republicans. to me it's like, you know, the number had been vacillating a lot and now it seems like there is a sustained democratic lead. it's small, but it's sustaining. >> sure. i still think that when we get to the end of the day, the economy is going to be the top issue, and even though, you

know, i want to believe that americans understand we have three branches of government, republicans in control of the house. i think the responsibility is ultimately going to fall on the president, and if the economy is still struggling that's going to hurt his party and going to make democratic chances of taking the house more difficult, you know. it's true that congress isn't popular. candidates aren't popular but race by race i think it's still an uphill fight for democrats. >> as the folks on congress always like to say, as bad as our rating is technically, the rating is better collectively than the president's in the districts. nathan gonzales, politics in stereo, congratulations. i think it's a good idea or we wouldn't have put you on. all right, buddy. >> thank you. we've got an exciting announcement, nbc news and msnbc.com, we have officially launched nbcpolitics.com, our digital hub for all of our political reporting including highlights from daily run don and all our first read news led by the one and only mark, every

"meet the press" interview you've ever wanted to find, "today" show, "nightly," you name it. if it's important in the campaign it will be there. we'll have all sorts of fun. you'll have an app to download, play around with delegates and electorate college. this will become your home, i promise you. our political panel next but first the soup of the day. it's wednesday, crawfish corn chowder. i love corn chowder. i have to say that, especially throw a little sweet in there, a little cayenne pepper with the crab. it's good stuff. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up! ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8.

i wish my patients could see what i see. ♪ that over time, having high cholesterol plus diabetes... or high blood pressure... or family history of early heart disease... can put them at increased risk for plaque buildup. and they'd see that it's more important to get their cholesterol where their doctor wants. and why for these patients,

when diet and exercise alone aren't enough, i prescribe crestor. adding crestor lowers bad cholesterol by up to 52%. and is also proven to slow plaque buildup. [ female announcer ] crestor is not right for everyone. like people with liver disease... or women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant. simple blood tests will check for liver problems. tell your doctor about other medicines you're taking. or if you have muscle pain or weakness. that could be a sign of a rare but serious side effect. is your cholesterol where your doctor wants? ask your doctor if crestor is right for you. [ female announcer ] if you can't afford your medication, astra zeneca may be able to help.

well, it's the republican horse race has turned into a two dawn man contest, republican primary voters view this dilemma, don't view mitt romney as one of them, a true conservative and are aware newt gingrich has a long way to go with swing voters. joining us now our political panel. everybody, welcome. i'm going to start with this issue of gingrich and sort of the -- the problem that -- the asset that he has in the republican primary and the problem that he has. will be at this, his personal ratings here, i want to put up from our poll. among all voters, 24/40, almost identical to where he was in 1988 when he left the

speakership but among the republican primary voters he's ahead of romney and a 52% positive and 21% negative. explain why republican primary voters have forgiven him more so than the general public. >> it's a flight to quality. a lot of people are thinking this is because newt gingrich is a conservative, and i don't think that's it. when he was a young man, he was a rockefeller republican delega delegate, an activist. >> that's what he is, an activist, probably a better way of putting it. >> i think that's right. but it's a flight to quality because people are flowing to him because of his experience, and that's i think what people are actually looking for, so the fact that he's big in the trenches for a long period of time is actually what's working with him for the primary electorate but the general electorate is going to remember every whacked out thing he said for the last 20 years, and that's a liability. >> you've been watching all these debates and you actually just said something that i've thought the same thing which is, okay, you could argue that the two best debaters, doesn't

matter if you agree or not, romney and gingrich, and number three has probably been rick santorum and he hasn't popped. i have my own theories on that. >> right. >> what is it that you've found that gingrich is just doing better than romney, just simply as an observer? >> and throw in the fact that rick santorum is the true evangelical in the race and is getting nowhere. i had an epiphany and trying to figure out what he had in common with herman cain and donald trump and not being a true conservative consistently. the grandiosity and the way he delivers, sort of resonates like talk radio. he's sort of like rubbing limbaugh, also grandiose, a wealthy guy who appeals to people who are working class, and i think he has the cues, the sort of delivery that makes people feel like he's supporting the conservative movement and that he likes them, that he likes conservatives and romney doesn't deliver that. >> ben, you follow the money a lot more so than anybody in this report, particularly here in wall street. is there a collective like uh-oh

in wall street about gingrich. >> there's a big collective uh-oh about gingrich. the general election matchups with president obama don't look well. >> wall street loves romney. >> they don't love romney. >> they used to love obama. >> romney is in new york and doing a series of wall street event to raise a lot of money and they just think he's a winner ultimately in the general election and wall street likes winners. there's a pocket of support for gingrich on wall street but romney they see the guy who can take on obama and win and keep their tax rates low and keep regulations roll, maybe roll back dodd/frank, a lot of things wall street wants out of the next president and they don't think gingrich will be the guy to give it to them. >> could it be that romney is actually taking advantage of a moment in time that wall street might panic and give him more money. >> i don't know if this visit was coinciding with the gingrich surge but he'll take advantage of it because there are guys at the top level on wall street who

thought gingrich was a flavor of the month. now look at numbers like these and are worried. >> you know, ryan, i want to play about the wild card in this race which is ron paul. i think he's going to linger in this race a long time, but if he doesn't, it's -- it's not clear where his support goes. i thought ron paul yesterday because in the plainest terms yet of sort of what he stands for. here's what he said. >> it's the republican prescription drug programs or the democrats obama care, the drug companies, insurance companies, they are the big lobbyists, so my idea as a symbol of moving in a different direction, i would like to restore your right to drink raw milk any time you wanted to. >> so there it is, right, which is don't even regulate milk, you know. that's ron paul in a nutshell. >> it's microtargeting. >> okay. >> when you think about iowa, think about the folks doing transcendental meditation, who is going to get those guys to come out and vote in the caucus? ron paul can do it. he understands there's these

little constituencies, might sound zany and out there to you but folks that care about raw milk and he's for them. >> hey, you know it is the micr that does matter. and stick around and we will talk about the president and how he fared in the poll. and we ask next, who is the most junior senior senator? jeanne shaheen, even though she has been in the senate since 2009, and the junior is kelly eye yo iotee and you will like it, that it was a red liner who got it first. richard skinner. nyquil (stuffy): overachiever. anncr vo: tylenol cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion... nyquil cold & flu doesn't.

try bayer advanced aspirin. it's not the bayer aspirin you know. it's different. first, it's been re-engineered with micro-particles. second, it enters the bloodstream fast, and rushes relief to the site of your tough pain. the best part? it's proven to relieve pain twice as fast as before. bayer advanced aspirin. test how fast it works for you. love it, or get your money back. test how fast it works for you. you know the good folks have asked yours truly to teach you about treating frequent heartburn. 'cause i know a thing or two about eatin'. if you're one of those folks who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... well that's like checking on your burgers after they're burnt! [ male announcer ] treat your frequent heartburn by blocking the acid with prilosec otc. and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] one pill a day. 24 hours. zero heartburn. block the acid with prilosec otc, and don't get heartburn in the first place. available at walmart.

and what it doesn't cover can cost you some money. that's why you should consider an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan... insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. all medicare supplement insurance plans can help pay... some of what medicare doesn't, so you could save... thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket expenses. call now for this free information kit and medicare guide. if you're turning 65 or you're already on medicare... you should know about this card -- it's the only one of its kind endorsed by aarp; see if it's right for you. all medicare supplement plans let you keep your own doctor, or hospital that accepts medicare. there are no networks and no referrals needed. help protect yourself from some of what medicare doesn't pay... and save up to thousands of dollars in potential... out-of-pocket expenses with an aarp... medicare supplement insurance plan... insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. call this toll-free number on your screen now... for this free information kit, including this... medicare guide and customized rate quote.

>> let's bring back with the panel, joy ann, and ben and rahein salam. i want to talk about the failures of president obama three years in and we ranked six and hit the top four accomplishms and killing osama

bin laden was one, and bringing home troops from iraq, and preventing economic debt crisis and then look at that, joy ann reed, 13% picked the health care as a positive and negative. i had a democratic pollster who was not affiliated with the campaign who said that the failure to sell health care, and if they don't win re-election, it is the ing isle biggest mistake. >> well, they passed the health care law and then ran away from it. they expended really all of barack obama's first-year capital on health care and the big get of 100 years of people trying to pass universal health care and did that and ran away from it, and no benefit. >> no benefit from it. >> yes, and if they were going to do that, they should have spent the first year on jobs. >> and if you are a republican and has to do with the foreign policy, and you won't have a foreign policy debate between a

republican nominee and the president? >> that is right. another liability is that president obama has a lot of canny political strategists, but these are intrademocratic tribal battles, and david axelrod can run these very progressive rainbow coalitions in big cities. he is a sharp guy and hard fights to win, but barack obama is now in the situation where he has to win over this broad middle, and has to win over an electorate that is trending center right, and that is going to be tough. >> but one of the assets is newt gingrich, and independents upside down, and seniors upside down. >> and yes, he can go up against gingrich and say the economy is not where i wanted to it be, and do you want this guy to lead you to the next best economy? . >> and one other assets, conservatives. and on the grio we are running a story about the 1 in 4

children in poverty. remember that this season. a lot of americans wanting. >> follow me on twitter. >> shameless. >> and the national review is doing a store i are on building a bigger v.a. and how college can be cheaper. check it out. >> it is a big story that has been undercover for years. that is it for this edition of "daily rundown." we will see you tomorrow. and coming up behind is chris jansing on "jansing & company" and following her is andrea mitchell reports. ♪ [ male announcer ] everyone deserves the gift of a pain free holiday. ♪ this season, discover aleve. all day pain relief with just two pills.

jansing on "jansing & company" jansing on "jansing & company"

good morning, i'm chris jansing. we have never seen anything like it. the new nbc news poll shines a spotlight on volatile and unhappy republican electorate and on the flipside, it is offering new hope no the obama campai campaign. check it out 1 in 5 republicans describe the field as strong and half say it is average, and more than a kwaquarter say that the field