learned today. >> listening to rick santorum, i think there's a little bit of fight left in this primary process. so, bring it on. let's do it. >> five more days. sam, what do you got? >> standing between you two, i need growth hormone. >> she put in her endorsement, i don't support her racism. that's her words. stick around. right now for the daily rundown. chuck todd live at java joe's. the republican field volatile as ever. a new poll finds romney out in front. gingrich plunging and a surprising dark horse coming up from behind. we're live here in iowa. as candidates prepare their final push. speaking of plunging candidates, late yesterday, one of bachmann's iowa co-chair,ç defected to join ron paul's

surging campaign. he said that he wants to back a money. the war of words turns ugly. plus, miss sit-down with newt gingrich, with numbersle falling he's trying to capture himself as the modern-day ronald reagan against mitt romney. the fight i'm in with romney is exactly the fight reagan was in with the establishment of the 1908s. >> it's thursday, december 29th, special edition of the daily rundown. we're live in des moines. our home away home for the next four, five days. we get things started, though, this morning. let's get to my first read of this morning. this volatile republican race. new poll of iowa republicans shows that the landscape has shifted once again. mitt romney leading with 25% of

the vote. ron paul with 22%. newt gingrich's numbers have gone into free falling. in an interview with me yesterday, he tried to spin his declining support and he said he's got his sights set on another key state. >> top three, four, depends on whether they're all bunched. what if you have four people tied. what if you have ron paul win? that point, i think -- the people just sort of shake their head. >> i like to come in second in new hampshire. i think it's hard to beat romney in new hampshire.ç it will be fun. >> either win iowa or new hampshire? >> south carolina. >> every one who has won south carolina has been the nominee. >> he had this response last late night about those eroding numbers from that cnn poll sf.

>> what about the new poll out today? >> well, one word of warning, by the way, on this cnn poll, they didn't poll independents and democrats, they used a listless base sampling there. could it overshow candidates doing better than republicans and not noting the support of nontraditional republican voters, overstating a rick santorum who performs better among rank and file republicans. we'll find out. some big polls coming out, including our poll out tomorrow. ron paul's spokesman responded this way, saying it's a too small a sample to be very accurate. romney was caught on a rope line

after one of several town halls yesterday. an overflow crowd. wasn't exactly enthusiastic to weigh in. >> the polls numbers. >> so many polls. >> but the new one? you're ahead? >> well, i look at all the polls. hi. >> you're up by five points, governor, is that a good thing? >> that's --ç that's more e couraging than some. some have we down by five, some have me up. who knows. >> in the latest sign that romney, has spent 11 days campaigning in this cycle, the campaign is hitting to his new speaker shift. you can't teach an old dog newt tricks. >> when generations of immigrations looked up and saw the statue of liberty for the first time, one thing they knew beyond any doubt, they were coming to a place where anything

was possible, that in america their children would have a better life. i believe in that america and in the campaign to come, the america ideals of economic freedom need a clear and unapologetic defense and i intend to make it because i have lived it. >> yes, that was a tim pawlenty cameo in that ad. the campaign has approximately 7 75,000 on the air. they're planning to spend the night in iowa on caucus night, do all of their morning show interviews from des moines. not from manchester. talk about confidence. they're going to doxz morning show interviews, the night after the caucus in iowa a campaign that thinks they're definitely going to win iowa. a major defection overnight. michele bachmann's iowa chair, kent sorenson who was at her

side yesterday afternoon, jumped ship and joined ronç paul's campaign later that day. bachmann made a surprise appearance in des moines last night. >> i believe we're in a turning point in this campaign, i believe that we have an opportunity to elect a consecutive, someone who holds our values dear, we're going to take ron paul of the way to the white house, 2012. >> now, in iowa, bachmann was quick to lash out in a statement. here's what she said. >> kent sorenson personally told me that he was offered a large sum of money to go to work for the ron paul campaign. kent said to me yesterday, that everyone sells out in iowa, why shouldn't? then he told me, that he would stay with our campaign the ron paul campaign has to answer for its actions on these events. >> now, sorenson denied those

charges. here's what he said. >> have you spoken with michele bachmann about this at all? >> no. >> were you offered any sum of money? >> absolutely not. >> now one thing that this could be about, it might be funding ground games. lot of these big supporters and states expect when they endorse a candidate that the campaign will have the cash to do what they need to pay for their get out the vote efforts. the bachmann campaign doesn't have a lot of cash. it's possible that she doesn't have that money and paul does. yesterday, the attacks just kept coming against ron paul. >> one of the people running for president thinks @t's okay for iran to have a nuclear weapon. i don't. >> ron paul would be dangerous as president of the united states.

>> ron paul passed one bill in 20 years. what gives you the idea that he would eliminate anything? he's absolutely no track record of building any kind of coalition to get anything done anywhere. >> isn't it fascinating? poll says that romney is ahead. the candidates act like ron paul is ahead. >> former pennsylvania senator rick santorum, could he be seeing his efforts pay off? this morning, santorum said that iowans have decided that he's the real deal. >> iowans have been sizing up the candidates and looking for someone they can trust, go out and fight the battles and be the sharp contrast for barack obama. now, folks are making that decision they're coming to the guy that has the best and strongest record and has the strongest plan to get this country going. >> i want to emphasize, no other

candidate has done iowa the old-fashioned way. one county at a time. this is the way santorum has campaigned. this is one poll that we'll see over the next 48 hours. newt gingrich has been hammering romney for his massachusetts health care. i asked gingrich about that and what he would do to fix the health care system if heç got d of the mandate. >> your chief rival, mitt romney goes on a news program on fox and says this of health care, he said, speaker gingrich support wad he did in massachusetts until he got into the race. what do you say to that? >> i say it's amazing, everybody, the heritage foundation, newt gingrich, everybody else has figured out that mandates are bad. but he's still standing there with mandates.

>> let's talk about what you said then about the health care, you said that you like it that it was achieving goal for everyone to have health care. it was a personal responsibility. if the mandate is off the table, how do you do? >> what has been developed as a concept called patient power by john goodman which involves tax code. if they don't want to buy any of the health care, their charitable contribution goes to the tax credit. the tax credit takes care of it. but the challenge that you've got, and this is why everybody finally, at least every consecutive starting with the heritage foundation, which is where i was originally the more you look at it, two things

become clear, you are extending politicians into people's health care in a way which in the long run will cripple the system. because you end up in all sort of definitions what can you do and what can't you çdo? that's exactly what's happening in massachusetts under romney care. the second is, in the long run, you can't afford the kind of approach they're using. you talk to folks in massachusetts, what romney did was expand the demand for health care without improving the delivery system. he's trying to governor with a democratic legislation that affected his health care, the judges he picked, a whole range of policy choices he had. because in the end, he accommodated the liberal democrats. >> but, he will say that he was conservative as he could be in a blue state like massachusetts, what's the line here? sometimes you governff govern w

legislation you have? >> i had to deal with a democratic president when i was speaker. you look at welfare reform. we got it on the third round. we got the first tax cut in 16 years and the largest capital gains cut in history. signed by a democratic president. we got four straight years of a balanced budget. >> you have been very critical of the negative campaign being waged against you by the super pacs. you have been in politics for a long time. >> we're going to run 2,000 points of advertising this week. all of it positive. but all of it positive. when i was at 6% approval and youç guys thought i was dead, was positive.

>> you have run negative campaigns in the past? >> i run defined campaigns. >> i'm for tax cuts and he's for tax increases, that's a legitimate contrast. and very different than the ads that have been running out here. >> i have it here, there's a super pac now helping you. >> okay. >> sending out this mailer and you said that you want to criticize negative mailers. this one says calls mitt romney the second most dangerous man in america. talks about positive things here. very critical of governor romney and his spending proposals. does that cross the line in your opinion? >> i wouldn't call him the second most dangerous man in america. on the other hand f they have a factually mailing that he's for this, for this, i think the

question is whether or not he's for it? i think being factually accurate and explaining someone's position is legitimate. when you're factually wrong or distorting things, that is wrong. >> we'll have much more with my one-on-one interview with newt gingrich, what he says about his relationship he has with ex-wife and what happened in virginia. plus, behind the scenes of the republican race, what other candidates really like when it comes whenç they're in fund-raisers? and why is this the year of short-lived front-runners? but first, a look ahead at the president's schedule. remember that guy? he's in hawaii. he had dinner last night in waikiki, at his favorite

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live pictures here. mitt romney. rick santorum. both campaigning in eastern iowa today. it's normally a democratic strong hold in general elections. but, remember, every republican caucus goer counts. those guys in eastern iowa. rick perry, ron paul, more in central iowa today. january is make or break time for the republican field. the money and the momentum, could all flow more assertively if one candidate can break through and become the

alternative to mitt romney. how did we get to this point. a new ebook titled the right fights back. real-time history of the republican field up to about december 1st. i recently sat down with the co-author of the e-book. here's part of that conversation. >> what's interesting here, you went through the story of the campaign right up through that's what it felt like. reading one of those great newsweek stuff. when you look back now, three most important takeaways from this e-book right now here, now that we're closer to the end of the year. >> we try to do what it'sç lik only a few people on the planet to know what it's really like to have us chasing them. when we talked to the candidates, what is it like? we focused on the intellectual,

there's a real physical rigor to it. that undid perry early, the perry staff, really misjudged his moment would be and his opportunity would be. we talked to a former fund-raiser for rick perry, he said that the back surgery is still hurting him. she would set up a fund-raiser with 100 donors. he could only 50 clicks. >> this is a case, now the candidate himself, has finally admitted it, he wouldn't at the time of your book, they would brush off these questions, the back surgery in july impacted him early on in the campaign. >> it fed into other problems he had. he had a meeting that he had with a big donor in florida. he's not going to go with romney. a huge opportunity for perry. perry blew it.

what these big donors -- he came in with his list of questions, on energy, education and others. perry couldn't answer them. he wasn't ready yet and al hoffman expected to be taken out on perry's private plane. that's what these candidates take the big-money guys for a test-drive. >> tim pawlenty, going through this, what was it likeç to be overconsulted. >> we sat down with tim pawlenty, shortly after he got out, we asked him, what was it like? we talked about that moment in the debate when he really blew it, people were expecting him to take a shot at romney and he didn't. he backed away. people questioned his manhood. he compared it to be an overcoached golfer. you're asked a question and you're thinking about what to

say for the base and the two consulta consultants, your media guys told you to do. you're having all of these, swing thoughts, you're having all of these swing thoughts at once, and it's no wonder he choked. >> as a hack golfer, i know exactly what he's talking about. you can picture a first-time candidate in particular struggling in that. to me, the most underreported in your book, a nugget of news, sort of insight, is the role that mike don lan is playing in the re-elect. mike is brothers with tom don lan, national security adviser. they made more populous campaign pitches. middle-class pitches. you know, fighting for you, things like that. >> right, chuck, what we picked

up on, the real nervous nns the campaign. there's not a message. you talked about it here on the show. bumperç sticker showed obama 2012. obama's campaign manager said that we're going to build the machine and they will come. they have had 1 million conversations so far. but it's not clear yet what this president is going to do. i had an interview the other day where we asked valerie jarlet, say you win, what does january 2013 looked like? she mentioned jobs and other things that carried over. they haven't said what their big thing is. people who love the president worry about that. they said, they believe the intangibles, the personal connections, ultimately would do it for them, we still have michael jordan as one said to me. >> a history book in real time. the right fights back.

>> there you heard it. fascinating behind the scenes intrigue there. wall street hoping to end the year on a high note. market rundown is next. plus, bachmann betrade. her struggling campaign takes a big hit when her biggest supporter here in iowa switches campaigns. but first, today's trivia question -- who is the only republican presidential candidate with a degree in economics? the first correct answer will get follow. my name is robin. i'm a wife, i'm a mom... and chantix worked for me. it's a medication i could take and still smoke, while it built up in my system. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior,

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well, we're here at java joe's. our favorite coffee house here in des moines, iowa. chris, you got to get here,

brother. lot going on, this race is getting crazy. >> i'm trying to keep the seat warm for you. i know you're there through the caucuses. only five days now. i assume all of the luminaries of iowauusr(p' politics will want to be on the daily rundown, am i right. >> you're right. we got here a little earlier than we planned. we thought that we would have newt one day later than we got him. buddy there's no snow, no freezing rain, this is this is the best weather yet of any iowa caucus i have covered. i think this is my fifth, maybe sixth. i can't remember. tomorrow, we'll have the new nbc/marist poll out first thing tomorrow morning. we'll have it out the minute we

get the numbers ready for release in the morning, of course. we'll come back in a little bit. but take over for next couple. thank you, sir. we'll have you back. i'm already excited about that nbc/marist poll. i cannot wait. in the meantime, a minute away from the opening bell. it's time for the market rundown. jackie deangelis is here. >> up to date on the futures. it looks like all three markets are going to be higher. the dow up nearly 25 points at the moment. vol yuumes have been light all week. weekly jobless claims, initial claims rose 15,000 to 381,000. that was a little higher than expected. and also, worth a mention, that the euro is at 11-month low against the dollar. on continued worries about europe's debt crisis. the debt failedç to move the

needle that much. other data, we're looking at chicago pmi, pending home sales out at 10:00 and money supply coming out at 4:30 after the close. chris, back to you. >> thank you, jackie. as gingrich tries to spin his declining support, would he consider running on someone else's ticket. plus, upclose and personal, he talks about his multiple marriages. more of chuck's one-on-one interview coming up. and leader of the pack, mitt romney spent months keeping iowa expectations low, now he's po e poised to take the top spot in iowa. so 12 seconds ago. we should get him a present. thanks for the gift basket. you're welcome. you're welcome. did you see hr just sent out new... ...office rules? cause you're currently in violation of 6 of them. oh yeah, baby? ...and 7. did you guys hear that fred is leaving? so 30 seconds ago. [ noisemakers blow ] [ both ] we'll miss you! oh, facecake! there's some leftover cake. [ male announcer ] the new htc vivid.

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their new supreme leader that doubled as a memorial for his father. meant to end speculation about the power struggle in the wake of kim jong-il's death. the tiny nation of samoa will make an unusual leap into the future as it crosses the international deadline tonight. they'll skip from december 29th to directly december 31st to align its time with trading partners throughout the region. it also means for all intents and purposes, december 30th, 2011, has been canceled. lot of days i would like to skip over. good work, samoa. as chuck has reported. iowa is buzzing this morning with word of a major defection from michele bachmann's campaign. bachmann's iowa state chairman, kent sorenson showed up last night at ron paul's campaign rally, announcing his newfound support for paul.

>> we're going to take ron paul all of the way to the white house. 20120.ç >> nbc news campaign anthony tortell, he joins from des moines. anthony, my favorite part of this story is that sorenson was at a bachmann rally earlier in day but didn't speak because he was having dental work done, unbelievable, you can't make it up. what's the latest here in this back and forth? >> kent told me last night, he really didn't have his mind made up until 10 minutes before ron paul went on. i watched him walk into the back door. fascinating. he'll get back to me. six minutes later, i see kent

sorenson on stage endorses ron paul. bachmann campaign has came out and made some claims against kent sorenson and reasons why he may have done it. >> kent said to me yesterday that everyone sells out in iowa. why shouldn't i? then he told me that he would stay with our campaign. the ron paul campaign has to answer for its actions on these events. >> now, now kent sorenson told me last night that claim is absurd and incorrect. the campaign chairman went even further, he said that she doesn't have a clue, he also said that her campaign is floundering. and a that's the why she would making these allegations. >> unbelievable. anthony,ç thank you for stayin on top of it. newt gingrich's campaign has been a roller-coaster ride, where does he think he stands

now? let's go back to chuck in des moines, what else did gingrich tell you, fascinating interview on the bus, what else came of it that's worth our time. >> well, look, there's a lot in there. you should hear his back and forth, for instance, on what we could have do prevent north korea from getting nuclear weapons. but we talked about a lot of things having to do with the virginia battle debacle, his chances to be vice president if he doesn't get the nomination and the relationship that he has with his former wives. here's a little bit more. >> two big things have happened, processwise for your campaign, the rollout was sluggish to say the least. and then, most recently this inability to get on the virginia ballot, not an easy task, now it's your home state, how

does -- should -- why shouldn't voters wonder about your manager yal skills in the white house? >> they should. there's nothing wrong with them worrying about that. the rollout was a fundamental conflict with the consultants. the morning they left, we have gotten better with two months. we recovered, we have grown. cnn said this week i was the front-runner by a margin.ç we're about 60 days ahead of where we thought we would be. second, there's no question a very tiny operation, has been growing very, very rapidly. we're in good shape in iowa and new hampshire, south carolina,

florida, we are -- we made -- we had a mistake, we hired someone who frankly did a very bad job with the petition drive in virginia. it was our mistake. romney has been running for six years and he has had millions of dollars. much more money than we have had. and he's done it all before. there's no question, he's better organized than i am. the question is, over time, can he get the vote? we know that he can get the dolla dollars. can he get the votes. >> what is your relationships like with your ex-wives. >> with my first wife, we share two daughters and two grandchildren. very respectful on both sides. you know, i'm very concerned for her as a person.

i tried to deal with these personal questions without intruding into her personal life. >> your second wife? >> we don't have a relationship. >> your vp criteria, what is it? >> be capable of being president. share the general goals of fundment change in washington and in theç country that i'm campaigning on. and be helpful in the campaign in that order. >> would you consider it? >> i can't imagine that possibility. >> you can't imagine that you would be asked? >> i can't imagined that i would be asked. >> why? >> i'm too strong a personality. you know, i believe in very -- it's like reagan, i believe in very bold, very decisive change. >> you know, i wanted to do a couple of things with the transcripts, one thing control-f with reagan. it was amazing how many times he

cloaked himself with reagan, his competition with romney. the same battle lines that were drawn between reagan and bush. also, in the answer to the vice presidential candidate question, i have the feeling that's exact the same thing that romney would say about considering gingrich. he's too strong a personality. by the way, quick piece of breaking news from our ad tracking services it's goes into the story line of the day, is that romney's confidence. not only is he overnighting here in iowa, doing all of his morning interviews here, he could have gone straight to new hampshire, he's up, full broadcast ad buy in south carolina. >> interesting.ç

showing he's playing on all fronts. chuck todd, great use of the ipad in that gingrich interview. thank you. can mitt romney go where no republican has gone before? stay tuned. but first, the white house soup of the day. it's tomato bisque. i feel like it's always tomato-based soup. i'm just saying. you're watching "the daily rundown." only on msnbc. people with a machine.

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since 1976, no republican who is not an incumbent sitting president has won both iowa and new hampshire, could mitt r078ney pull that off? let's bring our panel in.

okay, let me start by going through the polls that we got yesterday. cnn/"time" romney in iowa, 25. ron paul 22. rick santorum 16. newt gingrich, 14. in new hampshire, romney is nothing new under the sun, romney, 44, ron paul, 17, newt gingrich, 16. jon huntsman, 9. fred, let's start with you, if you're mitt romney's strategist you got to be happy with what you see out of iowa and maybe not surprised but happy with what you see out of new hampshire, does this raise expectations? >> look, i think secretly happy, i think outwardly, this puts, mitt romney has theó!ñ?go([ bas two points down, if he makes a three-pointer he wins iowa. that's probably the ball game in

some respects. rick santorum's catching up. newt gingrich is going. the only person who hasn't surged in iowa has been jon huntsman and he still has five days left. i think it'sç very unpredict zblbl huntsman this morning, they pick corn in iowa and candidates in new hampshire. ruth, romney has played this, five days out, it seems that he has played it just right, he's exerting his power both financially and organizationally on the state, there's still not sold on him. because rick santorum is rising, can he win the state with 25%, is that enough? >> sure. it's a win-win situation for romney f he wins iowa, fantastic. from his point of view. goes and gets new hampshire, but if he loses as long as it's not

embarrassing at this point, it's not disastrous for him,ette zmrer if ron paul wins iowa, it's not the worst thing in the world -- >> it will be discounting. >> they don't have a path forward. >> reed, i want to -- newt gingrich a spokesman for newt gingrich, this is what he had to say about iowa. today's iowa poll shows mitt romney has a ceiling and he's spent $13 million in the state since '07 and he can't break it. i guess that's true. newt was at 33 in the last poll, now he's at 14. this looks like a irreviersible slide. >> couple of reasons why romney is in this good position now, the voters who failedç -- who have so far rallied around a single candidate, are splitting

their votes between every else. nobody has more than rick santorum this year from the evangelical voters. >> if you look at it, a little bit of math, 38, 52, 63 of the vote, maybe 70% of the vote, all of those people are trying to get the social conservative vote. >> who will win? and romney was way ahead. >> do they primary and caucus voters -- we think like that. they're voting strat tre treejically. >> they believe that mitt romney has the best chance of winning. i think that could be a surrogate of who they think could be president. >> that matters when you're running against a sitting ink

incumbe incumbent. >> romney at 38. the social conservative. we'll come back. but first, trivia time. we asked you, who's the only republican presidential candidate with a degree in economic? the answer, youranswer, your fr mine, bud i roemer. he has an mba in finance from harvard. impressive. we'll be right back. you are watching "the daily rundown," only on msnbc.  total access - to everything. from idea toresearc. including financials, indicators and real-time streaming quotes. whether you eck your investments every day or every minute, our app can take them from thought to trade. at scottrade, seven-dollar trades are just the start. try our powerful mobile app. it's another reason more investors are saying... i'm with scottrade. living with the pain of moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis...

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obama had 68% and mitt romney 23%. that's a huge problem for the republican party. >> a big problem for romney if

he gets to the general election and a bigger problem for the party long-term. the demographi >> i was struck by this. another number. hispanic voters, are you satisfied or dissatisfied. they are not happy with the direction of the country, but they don't trust at least mitt romney. >> one of the things you hear is the hispanics like everybody else care about jobs first. you can't deliver that message if they don't believe you want them in the country. exactly. >> the economy and the overarching thing is opportunity and which party fight for opportunity? >> the republican primary has not been -- this is bad news with everybody.

a little bit with newt gingrich got pummelled and has been far more conservative. >> we will take it and looking broadly beyond the partisan, we are a united country and need everyone to feel like they have a place. >> stepping outside, that's the kind of thing we do. >> it's the christmas spirit. >> christmas is passed. >> play the hotline and we are publishing all week this week and the run up to the caucuses and hotline about national journal.com. >> we are sitting here and it's nice and cozy and we should shamelessly plug all of our colleagues. >> they are liveing it up. 801 steak house.ç >> forget it, i unplugged them. >> it has been a great year for

you guys and it will be better with the elections. >> fred yang ensuring he will be invited back. i will shamelessly plug the show and all the folks including chuck todd who make this a great show. thank you so much for your help and helping me for letting me guest host. that is it for this edition of the daily run down. tomorrow on the show it's all about iowa. chuck will be back live from java joe's in des moines. i can't wait. next is chris jansing and company. at 1:00 p.m. don't miss "andrea mitchell reports." oh it's clearance time!

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good morning. i'm chris jansing. slow and steady might win the race in iowa. five days left. mitt romney and ron paul are