>> will there be a strategy for michele bachmann who lost a key endorsement? guess who may be laying more ground work in iowa than the gop? filling in for thomas roberts, a shake-up at the top of polling gives us another republican alternative. the romney campaign's focus is paid off for the spot at the top of the latest poll and newt gingrich's slump is rick santorum's gain. the senator talked about the surge on "morning joe" today.ç >> they have the strongest plan to get it going. >> a political reporter for the

"huffington post" and joins us now. let's focus on the two big names. how secure is the lead and how does rick santorum get the aspect romney conservatives to his campaign? >> romney is doing very well in the polls. he got very good numbers in the polls yesterday from cnn and time. he does have a good lead although ron paul is with him. santorum is really catching up though. his poll numbers are much higher. the reason is that he is committed in all 99 counties. that is something that matters from a lot of conservatives. let's listen to a piece of that

interview. >> they are tied. what if you have ron paul win? at that point i think you should shake their head and go to the next topic. >> newt gingrich is saying it's not a big deal. he previously had a bigç spike and was doing well, but a lot of islands were saying you can't trust him. a lot of people were saying he spent too much time in washington and too much of an insider. a lot of people seem to be picking up on these ads that it's mitt romney is putting out. gingrich has too much baggage. a lot of people are repeating that back to reporters. i think that it shows that these ads are taking a big effect.

a lot of focus has been in iowa. you haven't seen as many ads from the future and romney in other states, but the focus is iowa right now. going forward, they might be able to take effect there as well. >> ron paul got an unexpected endorsement of sorts from the chairman of the michele bachmann campaign. she did comment. let's listen. >> they have opportunities with conservatives and somebody that holds our values dear. i want to tell you that i will help in iowa and beyond. we will take ron.

>> paul: all the way to the white house. >> was this a surprise and what does it say about the ron paul campaign? >> it wasç a surprise. i think bachmann had a strong supporter in sorenson and losing him says something about the support that paul is gaining. i spoke to sorenson after he made this endorsement and he said he doesn't think bachmann can win iowa which is say big statement to make. the only top tier candidates he said are romney and paul. it's a strong endorsement for paul. >> the "huffington post," thank you so much. >> thank you. >> mitt romney is trying to build off the lead in iowa and trying to convince republican there is that he does share in their conservative values. he joins me now.

thank you for that. rick santorum today, i'm sure you heard the news. he is making a strong move in iowa and talking about his credentials. let's listen on to what he had to say. that's one of the reasons they are looking at us. >> you heard him make that point. running as a conservative. is that a hitten or not so hidden shot and does governor romney have to worry about selling his conservative values? we got home late and will tell you every stop we went to had bumper crowds of people flowing out into theç streets. at one time we had to take over two restaurants in iowa. the overflow had reached far

capacity to have the fire marshall shut down. in a conservative state to see that outpouring of support t really shows the argument that he is the only conservative that doesn't hold water. more and more come to mitt romney. iowa voters more than anyone had a touch and feel and more attention than any other state. more and more are coming to mitt romney and the numbers are surging. there is an evangelical base that has gone from michele bachmann to newt gingrich and rick santorum. at the end of the day, mitt romney will finish strong in iowa and far above almost everyone's expectations.

and on the flip side, do you think he would be more mot rate to reach consensus and washington and why would democrats who washed them stonewall nearly everything, why would they want to work with mitt romney? >> being a conservative does not mean they wouldn't go with the voters. one of the strongest presidents we had and an uncanny ability to work with the super majority democrat-controlled house to pass the tax cuts and theç reduction in spending and the economic reforms. this is a perfect example of someone who built consensus even among independent and democrat voters and lawmakers. people look at washington, d.c. and see a broken government.

we can elect someone who is conservative in their principals who cut taxes as governor of massachusetts and battles the budget of the governor and left him a rainy day fund of $2 billion. 85% senate. my point is this. when you go to washington, d.c., it's fine if you have a great idea and a great plan, but you have to sell it back to the lawmakers in the house and as well as republicans. >> one more question. you have served on capitol hill. he has a good shot at winning. could you see yourself given the opportunity backing him as a potential republican nominee? >> i don't believe ron paul will be the nominee. all the candidates that are running will be better than president obama. i would vote for any of them if they are the eventual nominee.

any pollster and elected ì(ls> believe that ron paul will be the nominee. he is finishing stronger and that's exciting. >> thank you so much. >> good to be with you.ç washington bureau chief with comcast, thank you both for being with us. let's start with you. should we be surprised by the surge? he approached campaigning with the traditional way. 99 counties in so many towns. do you think the support can grow in the days ahead? >> rick santorum was deputy chief of staff and he is a hard, hard worker and reminds me of the engine that could.

traveling to all 99 counties and doing the old school politics that iowans have come to know and like. he doesn't surprise me, but to the second point, this is mitt romney's race to lose. he is the presumptive republican nominee. we take a look at the position in the polls as it relates to iowa and new hampshire and south carolina, unless something happens between now and super tuesday, he probably will be the republican nominee. >> given what you have just heard, he didn't expect to lead in iowa. the polls have been leading there now. if he does come out ahead, how does that change things for him going ahead. >> almost every one of the candidates at one time or another had scrutiny and the personal background and michele

bachmann said things that are eyebrowç raising. the revelations. romney's folks saw the opportunity to really open up, but they are running against a depleted field. it sets the bar and if he comes out of iowa and wins which is what he expected to do, the question is who challenges them in florida and south carolina? i'm not sure if this field has the heft to do that. >> more quick question. >> who stands to lose the most and who might be dropping out? >> i think john huntman may be dropping out if he doesn't come in fourth or fifth place, i don't see how he ask continue. the person with the most to

lose, mitt romney if he doesn't win new hampshire or iowa, that changes the game. >> peter? >> i think you will see a lost candidates staying for personal reasons and newt gingrich wants to keep his name out because he has books to write and other things to do. frankly with the first two caucuses in iowa and new hampshire, not so much again how strong mitt romney is, but problems in the general election. a lost folks have said they are trying to spin this as he is strong and he has to get to the primaries and his record has not come under scrutiny and it will in the general election. >> thank you both so much. >> thank you. >> two defeks from theç bachma campaign in the past 24 hours. one leave are figure ron paul and the other for mitt romney. what her campaign is staying about it. not exactly the christmas spirit in bethlehem.

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>> the campaign contacted one of the people in our campaign and offered money to come and he went. pure and simple. that's what it was. >> kind of unusual this late in the game? >> i would think so, but you know, it was a financial decision and it was made. >> that was moments ago on the radio. a seemingly stunned michele bachmann grantingly her ex-campaign manager a sell out to ron paul's political team. in the wake of that jaw dropping defection, the candidate trailing in the polls is

scrambling to do damage control as even a once supportive super pack ditched her for mitt romney. the press secretary joins us now and it has been a whirl wind 24 hours. they are enough to rattle any candidate. how was she handling all of this? >> she is doing great. we followed that up having the new chairman in iowa. he has done a tremendous job for the campaign and brought on a former cain operative. he was going to help with the operations here. this is not going to deter us whatsoever. it came as quite a shock. senator sorenson was at an event and sold out for 30 pieces of silver. >> no warning at çall? >> nope. no warning or phone call or nothing. that's fine. it didn't deter us. as a matter of fact we are wrapping up the 99-county tour

and had been traveling the state for the last 11 or 12 days on a concentrated effort to meet as many people as we can. she really wanted to make a last effort to touch all the team and talk and speak with them and hear what they have to say. we have done a great job in terms of going out to small towns and big towns. >> we are looking at live video of one of her speaking events in des moines as you and i speak right now. ken sorenson is a tea party favorite before michele bachmann announced candidacy. what does this behavior and the super pack incident say about loyalty within the tea party itself? >> they will have to answer to that. not only did senator sorenson say it was about money, but

former campaign operative of his has spoken and said the same thing. that's behind us now. we are looking to the future. he has to answer to what he did. a lot of work to do between now and next tuesday. we will continue our 99-county tour. it's important for michelle to do what she does best. they are about 45% of the electorate. it's critical for the people to have the opportunity to talk with the candidates. that's what she wants to do. we had a lot of people, hundreds of people come up to theç effes on the tour saying they are undecided and the solutions for how to turn the economy around and the confidence with the people in this country are on our camp. this is a valuable tour to connect with the people and sway the undecideds to our camp and solidify the support. >> to that point along with sorenson, it is reported that

evangelical pastors are asking michele bachmann to stand down. how does that affect the campaign? >> we don't get side tracked by that type of thing. no one has come to us in terms of a faith leader asking her to step down. we have more than 100 pastors and faith leader who is signed on to endorse her and share her social views and values with the people of the state. we have strong evangelical support that will help us on tuesday. >> i need to wrap it up. press secretary, thank you for taking the time to talk with us on this busy day, i'm sure. >> thanks. have a great day. >> newt gingrich has fun at romney's expense. a year ago much of the country was blanketed in snow. take a live look at olympic valley, california and how it's bad for business. when you have tough pain, do you want fast relief?

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last year's holiday blizzard, some might be relieved at how the weather has been. the lack of snow could spell disaster. live at olympic valley, california, where the white slopes seem to have gone green. i can't help thinking about last year's blizzard with the ski slopes packed and we were stranded. >> it's amazing the contrast from lastç year and this year. as you recall, it was a remarkable year for many, many resorts across the no belts in the united states. the season has to begin in november at extended spring into july. the record snowfall and the revenues of many of the areas. today this year is the other

side of the coin. at squaw valley resort, it has been a slow start to the season. 5 of 170 have any snow at all. >> we are making the best of it. >> while they are skating and dining as much snow as they can produce for the kids and the die-hards, a large part of the workforce is not working there. >> thousands of people are working. >> the part-time employees. >> it's the weather. from california and the pacific northwest across the great lakes into the northeast, there is less than half the snow than last year. >> the jet stream is completely different from last year. we are not getting the cold air. most of what's falling is rain and not snow. >> temperatures have been so warm, more are sitting idle than the slopes. the cabin feverish are heading to the tea instead of planning

to ski. in fact the records unlike the snow are piling up. reno will have the firstless december since the late 19th century. new york only the third. this time last year they had a blizzard. the metrodomeç collapsed next year and squaw value last december. there is some possibility of good news in the last days of 2011. the forecast for tomorrow is for cold temperatures about 18 degrees ideal for snow making. a 20% chance of real actual snow. the possibility of good news. >> here's hoping that weather changes. nbc reporting live from olympic valley, california. thank you. the republican presidential candidates are surging and

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we need to teach her how to walk. she is taking up valuable cart space. aren't you, honey? [ male announcer ] it's our biggest clearance event of the year where our prices are even lower. save money. live better. walmart. welcome back to msnbc. here are a look at stories happening now. prosecutors could file charges in connection with the devastating oil spill in the gulf of mexico last year. prosecutors are zeroing in on several nrnl who is may have provided false information. 11 crew members died when an explosion rocked the drilling platform and caused the worst oil spill in u.s. history. 2011 has been a record year for safety in airline travel. better technology and improved crew training are make the skies safer worldwide.

fighting friars. the little town of bethlehem was the scene of a brawl on thursday. police stormed to break up a fight, if you can believe this, between rival groups of orthodox and armenian monks and priests. about 100 clerics clashed over a dispute inside the church which theyç share. they threw fists and used brooms until police got them under control. hard to believe. it's five days to the first presidential contest and the canned days are going full force. mitt romney is enjoying being the front-runner, but the rivals are not far behind. the governor is on the campaign bus traveling to cedar falls, mason city and ames. recovering the romney campaign, he joins us on the phone from des moines. what is the focus of the new romney ad in iowa now? >> you are seeing this ad they filled out with the first 60

second ad, a closing argument. this has no negative attacks and he is talking about patriotism and the track is listed from romney's announcements to determine way back. you are seeing an effort to come full circle as we get back to the closing moments. parra are nbc's garrett haage is recovering the campaign. the campaign trail from iowa. ron paul has been a consistent second in iowa polls. he started the day with the radio interview before three town halls late last night. the paul campaign scored something when they gave the endorsement of michele bachmann's iowa state chairman. we have the nbc campaign covering live from des moines.

nice to see you. did this come as a surprise to the paul campaign? >> it çdid. the paul campaign said they didn't know until he arrived. i witnessed him and e-mails the event that covers michele bachmann asking why is ken sorenson here. before that, he was on stage and said this. >> while michele bachmann stands for my values, we are at a turning point. we have an opportunity to elect a conservative and someone who holds our values dear. >> the campaign is claiming that the paul campaign offered him a large sum of money, something michele bachmann repeated this morning. they say that's not true and absurd and incorrect. she repeated that statement on the radio and they were both at

who radio. ron paul came in a backdoor because michele bachmann was holding press in the front door. >> what was it like when he walked in. were people asking what is going on? did he present an explaining a for the secrecy? >> according to the campaign he had to pray on it. they knew a couple of days before, but they didn't know until he arrived. he came through the backdoor and six minutes later he was up on stage giving the endorsement and got a great ovation from the crowd as well as supporters on stage. >> iowa is always interesting and certainly no different. covering the ron paul campaign. thank you so much. >> thank you, çmilissa. >> rick santorum is numbers as the numbers surge among caucus goers. the senator has an 11-point gain pushing him into third behind

mitt romney and ron paul. he is in eastern iowa for a morning town hall followed by a stop at a candy shop. andrew rav efforty has been covering the campaign. what is the word from the campaign following the news of his surge? >> the campaign is cautiously optimistic. this is a first effort and noticeable how much more attention he is giving. there is a huge media presence and something he is not accustomed to. he would be excusing the media presence and we are seeing on the trail, rick perry taking shots and paying for them. these next five days with the surge in the polls from the one up yesterday, there is going to be a renewed interest from his opponents and the 12-year record in washington, there will be a lost washington talk and a lot

coming out about santorum. >> are they changing anything because of the new poll numbers or saying they are specific that they have been taking in iowa? >> what rick santorummkkóc)zs[ñg himself over is the fact that he is running this grass roots campaign in iowa and places so much of the emphasis on retail politics and starting to see it work for the first time and something they are sticking to. aggressive scheduling goingç through to the caucuses and a lot of meeting and greeting voters. not grant yodiose or over the t. meeting in coffee shops and two hours of an event lasting. that's what he is doing. >> all these undecideds. that's the way you increase your be numbers is by shake hands. covering the santorum campaign, thank you very much.

newt gingrich has seen his numbers slip in the hawk eye state. the former speaker told chuck todd while he is focused on iowa for the next few days, he knows he cannot win without winning south carolina. he has three back to back events followed by three in western iowa late or today. alex moe joining us from sioux city. good morning. >> how are you? >> i'm great. what is the main message he is trying to hammer home in the last week? >> speaker gingrich is making a final push in warks, the third event of the day and 75 people approximately here and this is simple. he has the experience to rebuild the economy and make washington work again. >> is there any feeling among the campaigners of disappointment that he was so

far ahead and positive talk about him a few weeks ago and he seems to have fallen behind. do you feel there is rearranging of how they handle things? >> not really. they are optimistic and saidç reporters that finishing in the top three or four is good enough for him. south carolina is the must win. he feels optimistic and still pulling a lot of large crowds. we have a lot to see if he can do well to finish in the top here. >> alex moe covering the gingrich campaign. thanks so much. in five days the first republican votes of the 2012 presidential race will drop in iowa. a state poll shows a surge behind rick santorum in 30 behind mitt romney and ron wall with newt gingrich falling to the back of the pack. of the four now on deck, they

have consistent across the board strength from mitt romney. is he set to make a clean sweep? joining us now, hi, there. you recently tweeted a note that romney plans to stay from morning tv introduce. what does that tell you? >> it said he is planning to win. the indication that was a couple of weeks ago that mitt romney was going to try to play it safe. on the night or the day before the caucuses, he would travel and do the tv interviews from there. they said new hampshire is the more important state for us. we would like to win, but it's not a must win. all the indications of him having a party and doing interviews from iowa before and even after the caucuses as well as a new 60-second tv adç suggt they intend to win. >> the words i hear associated

with mitt romney and his campaign is he is the presumed nominee. that said, there seems to be a lack of endorsement from prominent conservatives. why do you think that is and what is most worrisome who has not spoken up yet for mitt romney? >> people when they endorse want to be able to pick a winner. we have seen all the other republican brothers, herman cain shoots up in the polls and newt gipg rich and santorum. whether it comes with organization and financial resources, mitt romney has been the clear front-runner. it's not that surprising that sarah palin has not endorsed gingrich or rick santorum. it's not surprising that we have not seen herman cain who suspended from endorsing another conservative canned day. everyone sees the handwriting on the wall. romney is the man to beat and

that's why we are not seeing prominent conservative voices endorse on that conservative anti-romney side. >> politico reporter wrote about what he characterizes as a shadow campaign and he has more people on the ground in iowa than all of the gop candidates. how would you characterize that and is it accurate? >> absolutely accurate. i was on the ground in iowa about three weeks ago and was striking the not a lost activity on the ground. newt gingrich had just opened up the$juh list and mitt romney had one iowa office. no doubt that president obama and his campaign reelection team have more people on the grund than all the other republican campaigns combined. a here he is eating ice cream in hawaii.

they are on the ground in iowa and he is golfing in hawaii. does this fire up his base ahead of 2012? >> i think they want to have that base ready to go when it matters. we are talking the late string and summer when you see president obama and his campaign really start to engage. it's all about laying the ground work and having the organizations in place and people knocking on the doors and getting the campaign ready to go when it needs to go. that's one of the benefits. president obama had four full years to get ready and they are following a script and sticking to it. >> mark murray, thank you as always for your insight. good to see you. while the other candidates crisscross iowa, john huntsman concentrated on new hampshire, saying something about both faces sure to raise a few eyebrows. listen. >> one of the reasons i'm here

in new hampshire, in iowa there is activity and they pick had thes here in new hampshire. >> well. huntsman annual made one appearance in iowa to date and the poll puts him dead last and statements like that won't help him with 1% of collectedç vote. huntsman in is in number in new hampshire with 9% of likely voters there. >> the number of americans seeking unemployment benefits rose, the first in nearly a month. the numbers just out show benefits were up 15,000, up to 381,000, but that is still below the all-important 400,000 mark associated with improvement and strong hiring. a mixed report on the housing market. the number of americans who signed contracts for new homes was up to the highest in 19 months, however a growing number of buyers are cancelling

contracts last minute tempering the one bit of good news. how is the market responding? green arrows all around, butt mixed news kept gains at a minimum today. [ male announcer ] this is lara. her morning begins with arthritis pain. that's a coffee and two pills. the afternoon tour begins with more pain and more pills. the evening guests arrive. back to sore knees. back to more pills. the day is done but hang on... her doctor recommended aleve. just 2 pills can keep arthritis pain away all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is lara who chose 2 aleve and fewer pills for a day free of pain. [ female announcer ] get an aleve coupon in this sunday's paper. and fewer pills for a day free of pain. you want to save money on car insurance? no problem. you want to save money on rv insurance? no problem. you want to save money on motorcycle insurance?

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>> hoping a strong hispanic turn out will help the president secure four more years in the white house. he is catching heat when it comes to the deportation policy. nearly in ten disapprove of the policy, but the news is not all bad. paul singer joins me now. >> my pleasure. >> the numbers indicate frustration with deportations. do you expect policy changes over the coming year? >> my suspicion is that the administration is clear about

trying to be careful about breaking up families and trying to be tensative, but believe the deportations are important middle ground. they are not going to move forward with aggressive amnesty and alienated a huge part of the base as well. they are trying to navigate to the middle. in the polls, even the dissatisfaction is not really affecting how they are going to vote in the up coming elections. >> we canç show you that prove that. good news for the president and he leads mitt romney amongula seenos and that's nearly the same that he had with john mccain. does sign he may lose ground in 2012? >> i don't think so. what you see is the republicans did fairly well and george w. bush had a little bump in support from hispanic voters. that trended downwards.

mccain didn't do as well and obama is holding support from hispanic voters. the number is growing. they did research on this and there is going to be an additional 700,000 hispanics becoming of age to vote every year. it's a agreeing demographic that trends in the democrats's favor. >> paul singer, thank you very much for joining us. >> very a great day. >> and you. thank you. time for the side bar. the presidential candidates are not the only ones occupying iowa. so are protesters. at least ten were arrested and one at mitt romney's campaign office it is. they are focused on corporate money and politics. they plan on occupy offices as well as president obama'sa campaign office. just call it newt gingrich and the chocolate factory. a day after mitt romney compared the campaign to lucille ball on

the assembly line, he campaigned on a chocolate assembly line. >> here i am in the chocolate factory.ç and now that come to the chocole factory, i hope governor romney will have the courage to debate me. >> but mitt romney is focuses on the democrats while campaigning in clinton, iowa. >> this is an extraordinary welcome in clinton. i will not forget. i thought when i was going to a place called clinton i was going to have some difficulty. at least you're not called obama. [ child 2 ] i call first player. no. i already called it. [ dad ] nobody's playing anything until after we get our homework done. thank you. hello? test drive's not over yet. [ male announcer ] it's practically yours. [ louder ] hello? but we still need your signature. right now during sign then drive, it's never been easier to get the all-new passat, the 2012 motor trend car of the year, for practically just your signature. that's the power of german engineering.

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ç you could call it time travel of sorts. at the stroke of midnight, samoans will skip friday and go straight into saturday, december 31st. the reason is the island is swapping to the other side of

the international date line, that line that marks where each calendar date begins. confused? i think we all are. stephanie gosk joins us from london to explain. you can try. >> i'll try to explain. people may be more confused after i finished than when i started. 120 years ago american traders convinced them to shift the dateline to the west. so it would be easier to trade with california. they realized that wasn't such a big idea because the biggest partners are to the west, australia and new zealand. they are shifting back to make it easier to trade with them. right now they effectively lose two work days a week. basically it means if it's friday, in samoa, it's saturday in australia, a day they could no longer trade. it confuses everybody. they are going to try to make it a bit simpler and help

themselves out. >> i guess december 30th wouldn't be very simple or will it? what's actually going to happen that day? >> it's a wrinkle in time. on december 30th, there will be no births, no deaths, if your birthday is on december 30th like matt lauer's -- >> that's where i was going. >> that's right. the other great thing for them too, it means they are the firsç nation now to celebrate new year's. if you're looking for something to do, fly to samoa and there will be a huge party and you can take 23 hours or so to recover and fly to the east and you can celebrate again. >> if it's your birthday, you don't age at all this year, lucky. >> perfect. >> thank you so much for joining us today. that does it for me. i'll see you right back here tomorrow. now with alex wagner is up next. [ other merv ] welcome back to the cleaning games. let's get a recap, merv. [ merv ] thanks, other merv. mr. clean magic eraser extra power

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the republican clown car, if mitt romney is in the driver's seat, is rick santorum riding shotgun? joining me today ari mel better and correspondent from the nation and charting new territory. from "time," and from my alma mater brown university and msnbc contributor, the always delightful jonathan capehart. >> i want to back up ari and his choice for today. >> you are giving him a vote of confidence for today. a new cnn poll shows rick santorum with 16%, up 11 points in three weeks. joining us now from iowa, john heilemann and msnbc contributor, thank you once again for sharing