searching for the truth! expressio disgustus. >> outstanding, david. i'm with you on the packers. i'll be watching this sunday. i'm matt miller sitting in for dylan ratigan. here's wishing you and your family a happy and healthy 2012. see you next year. "hardball" starts right now. good to see you. thanks for being here this morning. >> keep well, sir. >> i'll do my best. >> look at that. >> i'm chris matthews. let's play "hardball"! good evening. i' i'm chris matthews at java joe's in des moines, iowa. the republican nominees are heading into their final week of campaigning before tuesday's caucuses. four days to go now until the first big results of 2012.

leading off tonight, romney goes for the kill. our new nbc news/marist poll has mitt romney leading the field here in iowa. it's the second poll this week to show romney on top. and one of many polls showing newt gingrich is in dead free paul. the pressure may be getting to newt, who became teary-eyed this afternoon here at java joe's. one reason romney's doing so well here is evangelical voters are split. they're torn among rick santorum, rick perry, romney, gingrich and michele bachmann. together, the religious-oriented candidates, that's santorum, perry, and bachmann, get 35% in a new poll, but apart they're giving romney a real path to victory through their division. and how many tickets are there out of iowa? how many people would come from here to other parts of the debate and the campaign? who's out of the race if they don't have a strong finish on tuesday night? we're going to answer that tonight. we'll look at which of the candidates are most likely to quit after the iowa caucuses this coming tuesday. and tell me what you really think. we've got the most revealing

moments of the republican race so far. the statements that really tell us more about the candidates that even they ever intended to tell us. finally, let me finish with the role of politics and human tears. we start with mitt romney going for the kill. howard fineman's an msnbc political analyst and "the huffington post" media group editorial director. and susan page is the washington bureau chief for "usa today." well, here we are at java joe's, ground central, on a quiet little street in des moines, that just happens to come alive like brigadoon every four years, and we're all here. i think we're part of the brigadoon characters. let's take a look at the latest nbc news/marist poll. mitt romney leads the pack, but still at that ceiling of 23. that weird number keeps popping up like on a roulette wheel, like in "casablanca," it keeps

popping up. ron paul's a close second, he's up a couple points. rick santorum is on the rise more dramatically, jumping nine points into third place. and he's apparently still rising. and newt gingrich has continued his dead decline, down 15 points to finish in fifth place. what is going on? let's do -- like we like to do on "hardball," let's go to the bad news first. why is newt gingrich dying in des moines? >> well, chris -- >> and davenport, and other cities in iowa. >> i saw him early this morning at a country club with a rotary club crowd that was a pre-made crowd. it wasn't his crowd, it was the rotary club. >> they let in nonmembers? >> yeah. >> okay. >> and when newt started to speak, it sounded to me like a valedictory. it sounded to me he was beginning to say why he failed. he said in front of this rotary crowd meeting, he said, i can't do modern politics. meaning that there's something about the way that a big, national, industrialized

presidential campaign works that he just never figured out. and if he ever does figure it out, it's going to be too late. that's one thing that's happening to him here. >> who was the guy, the african-american guy in mythic history, who was the pile driver -- >> john henry. >> and he would pound those piles in until he had to finally run against the machine, and the machine beat him. or he beat the machine and then died. >> that's certainly how newt views himself. it's kind of a self-serving analysis. he's saying, i'm the honest guy who wanted to run a positive campaign, just talk about the issues. i won the debates, i was running like i was a member of the house on the floor of the house. not this weird thing that is presidential politics. he's, of course, going to blame the system. >> so a republican running against industrialization. >> yes. >> industrial politics. >> there's a strange development. susan, your thoughts about what looks to be the decline to almost infinitely little size of newt gingrich today. >> well, i think one big factor is 45 -- we've seen all these tv ads, night and day, on iowa television stations. 45% of the tv ads are attack ads on newt gingrich. so it would be a phenomenal

character who could withstand that kind of assault. >> but he's been around a million years. why would people believe the negative on him? >> and he's a target-rich environment, right? there's not just one thing you can criticize about newt gingrich. you can criticize his temperament -- >> excuse me, why did the souffle rise so high and so quickly, and just come down like such a bad meal? what happened? >> because that's what's happened with perry and bachmann and cain and all of them. because there's a hunger for some more interesting dynamic character than mitt romney is, and voters think they've found him. and he shoots up. and then they discover he's flawed and he goes down. and mitt romney is right there. at the same percentage he got four years ago, 25% was what he got in the iowa caucuses. >> yeah, i know mitt romney, by the way, we have 23, which is the number he seems to ride around the country. earlier this afternoon, right here at java joes -- i knew that would work. newt gingrich met with iowa mothers in a media event ran by frank luntz.

frank asked beginnigingrich abo own mother, a surprising one, except at this point in the campaign, when everybody's tired, especially the candidates. let's watch. >> what moment do you think of when you think of your mom? >> well, first of all, you'll get me all teary-eyed. i get teary-eyed every time we send christmas cards. there, i'm starting to tear. my mom -- excuse me. my whole emphasis on brain science comes in directly from dealing -- see how i'm getting emotional? of dealing with the real problems of real people in my family. so it's not a theory, it's in fact, you know, my mother. >> wow. well, howard, i mean, i want to say something about at the end of the show about the role of tears. we've all covered politicians. politicians, when they lose elections or are in bad trouble, cry. i've seen it never party. it happens. it's the only business in which you ask everybody to like you, and then you get a verdict from

everybody, and they all tell you in most cases, we don't like you. and every once in a while they say they like somebody for a while and then they tell them they don't like them. >> they don't cry in public. and we saw with newt gingrich, i was in the room at java joe's when he cried this morning. >> were you surprised? >> yes. and it was a human moment. you know, you don't get very many human moments on the campaign trail. and it did remind me of the moment four years ago in new hampshire where hillary clinton teared up -- she didn't cry quite as much as newt gingrich did, and you suddenly see this human being behind the campaign. >> but this -- i didn't see him here, but i saw him at the event before that. the first one he did this morning. and he looked tired. he looked like he was worn out. >> i think that's a big part of it. >> he looked like he'd taken on something more than he could handle. and he's in terrible shape. he's 68. he thinks he can go like he went 30 years ago, and he doesn't understand that if you're going to run for president, you have to build a big apparatus that you have to sit comfortably on

top of. and we make fun of this system, of electing people. but if you're going to be president of the united states, you have to know how to build and preside over that kind of instrument. and he just didn't know how to do it. in addition to the fact that he's been attacked mercilessly, often justifiably, for his record over the last 20 years. and newt is nothing if not an egomaniacal guy. >> imagine going back to your hotel room with your wife and sitting and watching television as you're trashed. >> and he didn't respond. >> he didn't have the money. >> let's take a look at a campaign stop in west des moines where mitt romney was joined by chris christie. i got in close and got a little bit of the conversation with both these fellas. let's watch. >> how's he helping your campaign, governor? >> he makes it real clear that we're going to bring real change to washington. >> would he be a good running mate? >> thank you. there are a number of people who'd be terrific.

>> i got a lot out of that. at the same event win got ahold of christie and asked him about romney. let's take a look at that. >> i see the ticket! i see the ticket before me. >> how you doing, chris? good to see you. >> we'll see. >> i don't think so. listen, i don't know. he's going to do really well here, but i don't know what that means. >> is second place good enough? >> he'll do well. is first or second good enough? >> listen, he's going to do really well, chris. i'm watching you from new jersey. >> can you bring jersey in on the ticket? bring jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio and break this thing wide open. >> he's going to win jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio in the general. >> because you're on the ticket? >> because he's the best guy. jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio are practical people, you know that. and the fact is they know this is wrong and it's not going right and he's the right guy to fix it. >> are you going across the country with him now? >> i'm going wherever he asks me to do. >> this guy's joined the team.

i do think it's a possible ticket. let's stop talking about romney winning this thing. is this a rock meeting a hard place or whatever? because an unmovable force meeting an unstoppable object. here's a guy who's had a ceiling because the evangelicals don't like him. he's a moderate, he's lds, all that. whatever the factors are, he seems to be stuck at 23%, romney, nationwide and here in iowa. at the same time, they want a winner. so people are somewhat coalescing about him, somewhat. in the crowd we saw today. you're demurring here? >> i'm demurring a little bit. talking to the romney people out there, they're genuinely worried that rick santorum will be able to consolidate all those evangelicals which could get him above the 24, 25% ceiling that romney had. i talked to one guy out there wearing a romney sticker, and i said, tell my why you're for mitt romney. and he said, well, i'm not 100% for mitt romney, but he does seem to be a sane guy. >> there's a standard.

in the clown car, one guy's sane. >> and that might be enough to get him the 24% or 25% that he needs. but the romney people are being very careful not to predict at anything more than that. >> my daughter says, the night you let the less drunk guy drive. that's what goes on. >> they're not worried about ron -- they figure they can -- the romney people figure they can explain away ron paul, but they have more trouble explaining away a surge -- >> well, here's that surge in rick santorum with the most committed voters. 59% say they're with him to the end as a candidate. they ain't going to switch. ron paul, rick perry, and mitt romney are all close behind him. that's the percentage of people who say they're totally with him. but that's in the low 50s. we're in the real science here, we're in the metrics here, susan. but here's the question. will the full committed people of santorum drive their way through the evangelicals, get the lion's share of that 46% come tuesday night, and overtake romney, who can't seem to bust free from 23-25? >> well, it's possible -- >> howard sized it up.

>> but the other candidates aren't backing away. rick perry's on the air here all the time -- >> but rick perry doesn't have the brains to be president. he doesn't have -- >> gingrich will get part of that vote. >> he doesn't have the bases -- >> we're talking metrics here. and other candidates will be splitting up that vote. >> what's the appeal? >> the appeal of rick perry? that he seems to be a decent guy, to the evangelicals, he seems to be a decent guy with his heart in the right place, even if he doesn't have -- >> upstairs. >> the rest of it. >> he's a nation senior governor of a big state. >> but texas. just kidding! i was going to say liberals, but that would be pushing it. anyway, thank you susan. you know these -- how many of these have you covered? >> this is my ninth caucuses. >> we are brigadoon characters, aren't? coming up, why don't evangelical voters get in line behind one candidate? i don't know why we're encouraging this, but if they get behind santorum instead of splitting their vote between

perri, bachmann, gingrich and the rest of them, they won't have any clout. we're teaching evangelicals tonight how to have more political clout. we'll be back from java joe's in des moines. this is from that romney rally today. let's watch. >> tell me about your vote and how you see your vote next day in the caucuses. >> i feel like i don't need my president to be my moral compass or my religious compass, i need him to take care of my paycheck and that's why i'm out here supporting romney. lounge and an ipad ♪ ♪ made sure his credit score did not go bad ♪ ♪ with a free-credit-score-dot-com ♪ ♪ app that he had ♪ downloaded it in the himalayas ♪ ♪ while meditating like a true playa ♪ ♪ now when he's surfing down in chile'a ♪ ♪ he can see when his score is in danger ♪ ♪ if you're a mobile type on the go ♪ ♪ i suggest you take a tip from my bro ♪ ♪ and download the app that lets you know ♪ ♪ at free-credit-score-dot-com now let's go. ♪ vo: offer applies with enrollment in freecreditscore.com™.

welcome back to "hardball." what an exciting campaign. four years ago, mike huckabee won in iowa by gaining overwhelming support from the people who identify as evangelicals. and this year the evangelical field is a little more crowded and a lot more divided among the following -- rick santorum, who's doing the best, rick perry, who's hanging in there, michele bachmann, who's fading. as the saying goes, the shape of the field defines the winner. that's a massachusetts political expression, which means, if you're the only evangelical

against four secular candidates, you win. or if you're the only evangelical among four seculars, you win. jimmy carter was the only conservative among four democratic lirps. that's how he won. so will mitt romney be the big winner as the secular candidate thanks to the inability of evangelical voters to coalesce around one candidate? we've got the two experts of near-time, not all-time. mark halperin and john heilemann is national affairs editor of "new york" magazine and msnbc political analyst. that's the way cary grant used to say it. new york! let me ask you both -- one of the three us, i believe, isn't an evangelical. let's get that straight. we are looking inside the fish bowl. why can't they find one guy or person they like the most? you first, mark. >> four years ago mitt romney had to run against four other establishment candidates. and huckabee was able to be the evangelical to consolidate. it's a mirror image this time. they can't consolidate because all of them have had moments,

all of them have sacrificed for months to run for president. rick perry, a little bit less than the others. they don't want to give up. they don't particularly like each other. and they all think that they can be the one to emerge from here as the romney alternative. it's kind of a prisoner's dilemma. if they got together, they could do what they all want to do individually, but fighting each other, romney now, mirror image. the only establishment candidate against not just the three you named, but gingrich, and to some extent, ron paul also have the same kind of backing. >> i was at that 801 steakhouse the other night, and the lobsters in the lobster tank that got through the night, the ones that are still there, they don't let any lobster get out of the tank. they see one getting out of the tank, they pull them back in. no evangelical wants the other evangelical to win. for example, it looks like rick santorum, who's roman catholic, actually, but charismatic. a conservative catholic. he's starting to pull away. can he pull away by next tuesday and overtake romney as the big winner out of iowa? >> i think it depends. this is a momentum game, right? who gets hot at the end.

rick santorum has the hot hand right now, and particularly the hot hand among this -- >> but you've got -- the candidates aren't going to do that. the voters are going to make that decision. the problem for santorum, he's benefiting from bachmann's collapse, for sure. and she's kind of on the way down. >> we saw her yesterday with 12 people at an event, at the most. >> the problem he's facing, and i think it was the most interesting thing in the nbc poll, that perry is still holding steady, and actually even ticking up a little bit. >> that tv advertising? >> it is totally, i think, a matter of money. and it shows you the contrast between the two of them. if santorum had perry's money, he would win the caucuses. perry's got more money than momentum. >> let's take a look at a number of the candidates that are using a strong sell in their tv ad buys to go after evangelical voters, trying to win them. he's an ad by rick santorum, showing some power here, touting his marriage and family. there's even an appearance from mike huckabee in the ad. let's watch.

>> so, big family, happy family. i think that's all true, by the way. i think it's a legitimate ad for once from anybody. he really does have a great marriage, and 21 years ain't much, but it's something. you know, i'm 31, so, i don't know what everybody's bragging about. anybody got more than 21 here? >> look at you -- oh, everybody in iowa's got a longer marriage than rick perry. >> there's like a 20-year-old kid back there that put his hand up just now. >> he's a good iowa candidate. he's been to all 99 counties. he speaks the language of a lot of the voters here. he hasn't had a lot of money, although he is on tv now. i think the thing that could be the moment for him that pivots, where he could consolidate. not the -- he's gotten some endorsements here from evangelical leaders, some

nationally, but what could consolidate for him in the voters' minds is "the des moines register" poll saturday night, tomorrow night. if he's doing well in that -- >> they're smart, evangelicals are smart. they'll go with the leader. >> they'll go with someone who th think can win this thing. >> and send a message. >> do you agree? >> i think the consolidation is going to happen not because one of the err candidates decides to throw up their hands, but because voters decide there's one that has the best chance of winning. >> here's perry trying to stop that from happening. here he is talking about in an ad as what he sees as a war on christianity in this country. let's watch this ad. >> i'm not ashamed to admit that i'm a christian. but you don't need to be in the pew every sunday to know there's something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't openly celebrate christmas or pray in school. as president, i'll end obama's war on religion and i'll fight against liberal attacks on our religious heritage. >> you know, i could argue with that ad for a thousand years. i don't know what the connection is between letting people serve

the way god made them in the military. nobody made themselves gay. god made them what they are, allow them to serve their country if they love it. i don't see what the problem is with that. number two. why can't you pray in public school if you want to pray? nobody's stopping you. you just don't have an organized reading of the king james version of the bible anymore. >> do you want me to go get rick perry and bring him -- >> i don't understand what his case is. i do understand it, by the way. >> what's marginally interesting to me about that ad, when he got in the race, his adviser said, the religious conservative rick perry is not going to be front and center, it's going to be the job creator in texas. he mentions that occasionally, but his advertising and a lot of his organizing on the stump is about religious. he's gotten away from the message. >> i've known rick santorum from pennsylvania, i've always liked him, although i disagree with halt a lot of his stuff. he is what he is. he's not like romney who would speak french, but wouldn't show it in the daylight, right? he isn't some other guy hiding

somewhere. he is rick santorum. >> let's say one thing about that ad. it would have been better if he wouldn't have done it with the brokeback mountain jacket on. but the second thing is, this is true, what mark just said is really true, he has spent all that money -- >> was that a secret code that we missed? >> he has not had a consistent message. all the money has not rebounded as much to his message as we thought it would have. >> but santorum never talks about the economy, or hardly ever. >> he does -- look, he's gotten no scrutiny. there's been -- perry's gone after him in the last 48 hours a little bit, but the rick santorum record is not going to be scrutinized between now and tuesday. >> let me try a headline by you guys. suppose the headline in the papers next wednesday after iowa, and all the papers, "the des moines register" and "the new york times" is -- let's see, paul edges romney, santorum finishes strong.

is that a good prediction? >> it's certainly plausible. i don't think it's most likely. but it's plausible. >> i think it's plausible and sounds pretty good for mitt romney. >> thank you very much, mark halperin and john heilemann. you're not agreeing yet. not signing up. "the des moines register" poll, saturday. coming up, how many candidates will survive and how many will get kicked off the island, in other words, no more campaigning. you're done. you're watching "hardball" from des moines, iowa, coming up only on msnbc. can you say "let them eat cake" in french? >> i can, but i won't. [ woman ] my boyfriend and i were going on vacation,

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we're back at java joe's. what a wild crowd. i think sometimes the only people who come in here are democrats. but that's just -- i'm going to keep looking. this is supposed to be a republican big show -- big story. let me ask you about newt gingrich tearing up, right in the other room here of java

joe's. it seems that we've watched this across both gender sides. ed muskie was supposed to have cried in virginia. pat schroeder from colorado, senator clinton, hillary clinton, and of course this guy now. my experiences behind the scenes, they all cry when they're in trouble politically. it's a personal reaction, usually when they're totally exhausted, they get emotional. what's it tell you? >> to me, it comes off as phony. they're at this every day, day in and day out, and all of a sudden, right near the end, it seems like the tear ducts come in. and to me, it strikes me as phony. >> do you think it's an appeal for sympathy? >> oh, yeah, absolutely. >> you're a hard guy. i want to ask a woman. do you agree with that, that this is a show? that the tears are for show? are crocodile tears? >> not usually. i think they seem to be genuine, at the time. >> do you think it's driven by tiredness? exhaustion? >> that could be a good part of it. >> what do you think? >> i think when you're tired, you're emotionally vulnerable. >> do you think it shows newt gingrich to be more of a mensch?

>> i don't think i better respond. >> you don't want to go that far? >> let me ask this guy. do you think newt gingrich is trying to show his softer side here or what? >> i just can't say too much good about newt gingrich. >> well, i'm with you, bro. let me go to you. sir, what do you think -- too many teardrops? isn't there a song? i like that song. >> i think he's sincere. i think he's just tired. exhausted. >> i'm with you, actually. >> i don't think it was insesin, but when hillary cried, it was sincere. >> that's what we like. true political prejudice. that's what we're all guilty of that. not you. you're exactly who i want to talk to you why not you? >> i have nothing to say. >> nothing to say? gosh. we don't like that. over here. there you are. >> hey! >> excellent reading material. >> great reading material. >> what's the name of that book? >> "jack ken cli: elusive hero." >> let me ask you about your

views. ed musky totally denied it. he didn't cry, it was the tear or the snow in his eyes. do you think tears hurt a politician or gives them a human side? >> i think it gives them a human side, but i don't think newt gingrich has much of a human side. i think he's tired. >> thank you. most of the people here are cynical. they have no hearts? they think newt gingrich doesn't either. anyway, we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] wouldn't it be cool if you took the top down on a crossover? if there were buttons for this? wouldn't it be cool if your car could handle the kids... ♪ ...and the nurburgring? or what if you built a car in tennessee that could change the world? yeah, that would be cool. nissan. innovation for today. innovation for tomorrow. innovation for all. ♪ moments you're looking forward to...

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paperless discount. paid-in-full discount. [yawning] homeowner's discount. safe driver discount. chipmunk family reunion. someone stole the nuts. squirrel jail. justice! countless discounts. now that's progressive. call or click today. i'm richard lui with your cnbc market wrap. it's the final day of the year some investors wish they could forget. the dow shedding 69 points, the s&p down 5, and the nasdaq shed 8. but for all the wild ups and downs, the dow actually made some people some money this year. 5.5% over september 30th, 2010.

the s&p ended almost exactly where it started. among the blue chips, mcdonalds led the winners for 2011. bank of america posted the biggest loss there. verizon is doing a little damage control. one day after customers fumed about news of an added surcharge, the company said, oops, we'll drop that fee after all. and a banner headline for ford motor company, this announced sales of its primary vehicles topping $2 million in the u.s. this year. the first time that's happened for any single car brand since 2007. and then u.s. drivers are cutting way back at the pump, evidently. according to a new eia report making way for refiners to export more fuel than ever before. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." an incredible changing environment out here right now

for republicans who have watched candidate after candidate top the charts for a couple of weeks and then collapse in a heat. take a look. first came michele bachmann. her performance as shown by the black line there. she reached a peak in mid-july and then full fast. look at the numbers, they're taken over time. then perry, the blue line that comes on there right now, very much matches it. was the next to steam up and then lose all favor. look how that works now. the new arc. then it was herman cain's term. he did very well. look how well he did, climbing to his high in late october, fairly recently. and of course, most recently gingrich took the lead before starting his decent. look, there's the green. see the patterns? they all have their peaks and they all sequenced after a serial love affairs, one after another after another. people fall for their candidates in a big way, and then they die. now the caucuses are going to answer a big question, who's going to get out of here. you're both objective reporters, you don't deal in opinion. i notice you pointed that out

before we started. jennifer jacobs is the chief politics reporter for the "des moines register," the key newspaper here, and liz sidoti is the associate editor. it seems to me the guy that could have come through here without even stopping was mitt romney. he doesn't need to do better than top two or three, fine. but bachmann and perry, do they have to prove that they can hold on to some of that vote against the very strong performance now of rick santorum? >> those are the two that are probably the most in peril. you know, michele bachmann, this is her home state, so if she doesn't make a case here, she's going to have a hard time after she moves on. >> why is it her home state? >> she was born here. yes, native here. so, you know -- >> is that known? >> iowans definitely know that. she's made a very big point of that. if she can't do well in iowa, how is she going to do well elsewhere? she's still trying to inspire confidence. her crowds today in iowa were

just minuscule. they were just small, disinterested crowd. no more than 30. >> i was there yesterday, at one of those crowds, it was very small. let me ask you about this, jennifer, the same question to you. who's imperiled right now? can't get a ticket out of here? >> i think you have to look at their boank accounts, not just the voter -- how they end up on january -- june -- hello, what day is it? january 3rd. but you have to look beyond iowa. who's going of the money to put organizations in all these other states and who's going to have the momentum to go the distance. and the fact of the matter is, it's really only three people who are going to be able to do that. mitt romney and ron paul. they're not only doing well here, but they actually have organizations and money in other states. >> is newt running out of money as well? >> i think it's going to be difficult for newt to raise money if he's not in the top three heading out here. >> and his hope -- excuse me. his hope, liz, is to try to last long enough to get to the next debate, which is almost like his oasis. if he can get to a debate, right, jennifer, he's one guy

who can live off the land. he's so successful in the debates. and one thing that killed him out here, right, is there haven't been many debates for while. >> and that's why perry is doing well. perry is best at retail campaigning, that one-on-one contact -- >> advertising. >> right. more people are showing up to see rick perry, he's finally dedicating some time here, and he's not debating. >> let me ask you about the bigger role of iowa. iowa made jimmy carter. hit made president obama. it established him the way that bush won the presidency, to the extent he deserved to win it, because he was seen as the first sort of flash winner, when the first count came in. your thoughts about iowa? is it going to remain a powerful picker of presidents? >> i think so. you know, we have a lot of confidence in who our you know our iowans choose. and it just seems like no matter who they choose, the caucuses just go on strong every year, or every four years. >> is it important to iowa? >> definitely. and they take it so seriously. you know that. >> i want to get back, same question to you, looking

nationally, liz, do you think iowa's going to hold the power that new hampshire's seemed to hold forever? >> i think what happens in new hampshire and south carolina and florida will dictate whether or not iowa continues to be seen as, you know, a place every candidate has to play. don't forget about new hampshire. and you know this. new hampshire's fickle, an independent-leaning state. they may not like what happens if mitt romney wins here. are they going to turn their back on him and choose someone else or not? >> let's take a look at the new ads. an example of the tough ads newt has had to deal with. a pro-romney super pac released this ad this week, trashing his mistakes. >> ever notice how some people make a lot of mistakes? >> it was probably a mistake. >> i made a mistake. >> i've made mistakes at times. >> whoops! >> so far, newt gingrich has admitted his mistakes or flipped on teaming up with nancy pelosi, immigration, medicare, health care, iraq, attacking mitt romney, and more. >> i made a big mistake in the

spring. >> haven't we had enough mistakes? >> and ron paul released this ad targeting both gingrich and romney. let's watch. >> the washington machine is strangling our economy. politicians who supported bailouts and mandates, serial hypocrites and flip-floppers can't clean up the mess. one man stands alone. a real plan to cut $1 trillion year one, balance the budget in three. consistent, incorruptible, guided by faith and principle. ron paul, the one we've been looking for. >> well, at least it ends positively. liz, it just looks to me, i don't know how you can sit at home. i don't know how you can take it? it's brutal! >> yeah, it really is. >> it is brutal! you turn on the tv for relief from your home care, it is worse than life. it's really tough. you know? you're smiling, but it's --

how -- i thought philly, the delaware valley of south jersey area was bad, but every judge is a crook. everyone running for re-election is terrible. these ads are awful. especially against newt. who one reason why he's cranky, he has a tv set. >> well, look, chris, they worked, right? look at these negative ads. and this is midwestern country, you know, it is midwestern iowa. iowa nice. what happened there? you know, in 2004, we saw, you know, negative ads go up and there was backlash. and in 2008 -- >> what happened to iowa nice? jennifer? >> what do you mean? >> well, iowa's always had a reputation for being, they don't like nasty -- they don't like nasty tv ads, they don't like negativity. >> they still don't. and if you ask them, they will always say that. which is why they liked gingrich? he was the front-runner in our poll at the end of november, and the most common thing i heard from people, the reason they liked him was because he rose above it. he didn't engage on that

republican-on-republican violence. they really did like that about him. but that's kind of slipped. he spends all his time on the defense and -- >> punching back. >> exactly. >> here's the awful part, the deceit charge. romney was mr. charm out there. he was singing "america the beautiful," one of my favorite songs, our favorite song as americans, a beautiful song. he had all the lyrics down, he has kristi with him, his beautiful wife with him, all that going for him, meanwhile his super pac ad is kicking the bejesus out of newt, in the butt. over and over. someone said, he gets loftier in his words as his ads get nastier. >> i think this is the story of this campaign. this is how the campaign finance system has been changed by the citizens united ruling, allowing these allied groups to come in and pour a ton of money in, and allowing the candidate to say, hey, i'm positive, it's not me. >> people are being deceived, right? >> you'll have plenty of strategists point out that gingrich is sinking in new hampshire too, and not a single

negative ad has been run against him there. >> "the des moines register" poll is coming out saturday, right? >> right. >> what time? >> 7:00 p.m.. >> the whole world will know who's going to win, right? >> it's going to predict it. up next, we've got the most revealing moment of the presidential race so far. the one that said more about the candidates than they ever intended. this is very fun, coming up here. very fun. "hardball" from java joe's in des moines, only on msnbc. are you for romney? >> yes. >> tell me why? >> i was for him the last time. >> do you think he'll do better this time? >> yes. >> what's changed from '08? >> i don't think anything's changed from '08. we now know what's out there is not working and we're looking forward to a change. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

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and through saturday, receive 24-month financing. only at the sleep number store, where queen bed sets now start at just $899. welcome back to "hardball." in this 2012 republican race, some of the most revealing moments came in the knockout punch not taken, the barely stifled frustration, the brain freeze. we call them the "tell me when you really think" statements that told us more about a candidate than anything else they said. roger simon, who invented the road show in politics, is chief political columnist for politico, and chris hayes is host of msnbc's "up with chris hayes." let's take a look at this one. mitt romney probably that he was on friendly turf with a fox interview, but when challenged,

we saw his barely contained frustration when having to answer a question. watch his body language here. >> do you think a mandate, mandating people to buy insurance is the right tool? >> brett, i don't know how many hundred times i've said this too -- this is an unusual interview. all right, let's do it again! >> chris, i've never seen a candidate re-cross his legs in the middle of an interview with great frustration. >> it was an interesting physiological response, because he was clearly trying to contain just barely suppressed rage in that moment. a, it was a question, if you hired a 19-year-old to do a little bit of research or tee up a question to mitt romney, it was one of the first that he would ask. and the fact that he felt so offended by the question said to me that he had not been spending enough time in interviews. i think this shows that his muscles had atrophied. it also shows that romney had a temper. we saw his temper flare during

the debate when he put his hand on the shoulder of rick perry. we've seen it in a few moments. it's been written about a bit. and this was one of those points where it bubbled up. and you know, a campaign, a modern campaign tests people to their very depths and core. and you're going to see more of that as it drags on. >> yeah, but romney's still hiding from most of us. let's take a look at this. this is fox, after all, not exactly dangerous territory. here's tim pawlenty previewing his killer line against romney on fox the day before the new hampshire debate. let's listen to what he promised to say in the debate. >> president obama said that he designed obama care after romney care. and basically made it obamanycare. >> obamanycare. an interesting line. but when it came time to deliver that line in the actual debate, will pawlenty, the governor, punted. listen, moderator john king tried to get him to say. >> governor, you just heard the governor rebut your characterization, obamanycare, why? >> let me first say to sylvia,

she has put her finger on one of the most important issues facing the country, which is president obama stood before the nation in 2008 and said he promised to do health care reform, focused on cost containment, along with republicans. he'd do it on a -- >> the question, governmentor was why obamney-care. >> i'm going to get to that. >> your rival is standing right there. >> president obama is the person i quoted in saying he looked to massachusetts no designing his program. he just doesn't have the gut to do it. >> you think it's guts? >> part of it is heart on a

stage. this was june pawlenty wouldn't play the game. >> refer that scene in "presumed innocent" where the prosecutor has to say "you did it" in front of the jury, and he wasn't ready to do it. let 'watch the free at the cnbc debate. >> i will tell you it's three xherd, education, and the thirty agency of government -- commerce, and he's see -- the third one i can't. i'm sorry. oops. >> it's tough when you can't answer somebody else's question, but when you can't answer your

own question, you have a deep-freeze problem. "oops" didn't quite handle it. >> the saddest part of that entire thing was the other candidates whispering, helping a little child who is stumped. you know, what's interesting in that moment, is when el he got in the race, a lot of people said he's not ready for primetime, then you saw a backlash, don't underestimate this guy, he's won every election he's run. well, it turned out he wasn't ready. that moment sort of epitomized that moment he's not been ready for primetime. >> the sad thing is he's ready for texas. after rick perry called evolution a theory that's out there and doubts man's contribution to global warming, jon huntsman fired off this tweet -- to be clear, i believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. call me crazy. you know, this is part of the weird thing the republican candidates are engaming in.

they have to hood that, you have to pretend you don't know what you have taught in school. >> it's like the old daze in the democratic party where you had to out-seg your opponent, now you have to out-conservative your opponent. >> here's huntsman saying i'm center right, you have all six, seven people on the right, here's an alternative, and then they staff took him aside and said there is no center right in the rep parts. >> and took all that back. here's christine o'donnell, that one who ran an unsuccessful campaign, most memorable for the "i'm not a witch" line. >> so tell us who gets your endorsement. >> i like mitt romney as well. >> some people say mitt romney

isn't the most consistent candidate, because he's changed his mind about big important issues over the years. >> that's one of the things i like about him. he's been consistent since he changed his mind. [ laughter ] >> you first, roger. >> consistent since he changed his mind. >> the worst statement you could possibly make, but secondly who wants o'donnell's endorsement? half the people thought she practiced witchcraft. the other people thought she still practices witchcraft. >> are you saying that endorsement is a curse? just kidding. roger simon, thank you, chris hayes, please come back. when i come back, let me finish with tears in politics, and how they go together. you're watching "hardball" at java joe's in des moines on msnbc.

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let me finish tonight with this. politics is a grueling business. it's all xw getting people to like you. when you get elected, you think the whole world loves you. when you get defeated, you feel the total rejection that is the lone experience of those who choose to put themselves before the public for approval or disapproval. we've looked upon you and found you wanting. we know you, and we don't like you. brutal. and the most brutal treatment comes when you are most vulnerable, when you've been out there for weeks, months, years perhaps asking people to like

you and it comes on election night or maybe a few days earlier when you see a poll, then you get it in the gut. you get the work that all that work, the handshakes and small talk and best speeches didn't work. you good et it thrown at you cold and brutally the verdict is no. no, not you, not you now. not ever, got it? this afternoon newt gingrich showed tears. believe me he's not the first. crying in defeat comes with the business. it's usually backstage or on air force one at 1:00 in the morning or sitting in a hotel room. you know it's over, people decided they didn't like you, you may have been through it with a girl or boy or later in life, but you know the feeling. candidates get it with a bigger punch. it isn't one person saying no. it's the mass of people saying not you, not you. you've been there. i know firsthand the candidates that cry when. it's not about ed muskie or pat schroeder or hillary clinton or newt. it's about the