good to see you. thanks for being here this morning. >> keep well, sir. >> i'll do my best. >> look at that. >> i'm chris matthews. let's play "hardball"! good evening. i'm crist matthews at java joe's in des moines, iowa. the republican nominees are heading into their final weekend of campaigning before tuesday's caucuses. four days to go now until the

first big results of 2012. leading off tonight, romney goes for the kill. our new nbc news/marist poll has mitt romney leading the field here in iowa. it's the second poll this week to show romney on top. and one of many polls showing newt gingrich is in dead free fall. the pressure may be getting to newt, who became teary-eyed this afternoon here at java joe's. one reason romney's doing so well here is evangelical voters are split. they're torn among rick santorum, rick perry, romney, gingrich and michele bachmann. together, the religious-oriented candidates, that's santorum, perry, and bachmann, get 35% in a new poll, but apart they're giving romney a real path to victory through their division. and how many tickets are there out of iowa? how many people would come from here to other parts of the debate and the campaign? who's out of the race if they don't have a strong finish on tuesday night? we're going to answer that tonight. we'll look at which of the candidates are most likely to quit after the iowa caucuses this coming tuesday. and tell me what you really

think. we've got the most revealing moments of the republican race so far. the statements that really tell us more about the candidates that even they ever intended to tell us. finally, let me finish with the role of politics and human tears. we start with mitt romney going for the kill. howard fineman's an msnbc political analyst and "the huffington post" media group editorial director. and susan page is the washington bureau chief for "usa today." well, here we are at java joe's, ground central, on a quiet little street in des moines, that just happens to come alive like brigadoon every four years, and we're all here. i think we're part of the brigadoon characters. this town is always here. we just show up. we're the characters out of that play. >> that's right. >> let's take a look at the latest nbc news/marist poll. mitt romney leads the pack, but still at that ceiling of 23. that weird number keeps popping up like on a roulette wheel, like in "casablanca," it keeps coming up at 23.

four points up from earlier this month. ron paul's a close second, he's up a couple points. rick santorum is on the rise more dramatically, jumping nine points into third place. and he's apparently still rising. and newt gingrich has continued his dead decline, down 15 points to finish in fifth place. what is going on? let's do -- like we like to do on "hardball," let's go to the bad news first. why is newt gingrich dying in des moines? >> well, chris -- >> and davenport, and other cities in iowa. >> i saw him early this morning at a country club with a rotary ub crowd that was a premade crowd. it wasn't his crowd, it was the rotary club. >> they let in nonmembers? >> yeah. >> okay. >> and when newt started to speak, it sounded to me like a valedictory. it sounded to me he was beginning to say why he failed. he said in front of this rotary crowd meeting, he said, i can't do modern politics. meaning that there's something about the way that a big, national, industrialized presidential campaign works that

he just never figured out. and if he ever does figure it out, it's going to be too late. that's one thing that's happening to him here. by the way, he looked tired. >> who was the guy, the african-american guy in mythic history, who was the pile driver -- >> john henry. >> and he would pound those piles in until he had to finally run against the machine, and the machine beat him. or he beat the machine and then died. >> that's certainly how newt views himself. it's kind of a self-serving analysis. he's saying, i'm the honest guy who wanted to run a positive campaign, just talk about the issues. i won the debates, i was running like i was a member of the house on the floor of the house. not this weird thing that is presidential politics. he's, of course, going to blame the system. >> so a republican running against industrialization. >> yes. >> industrial politics. >> there's a strange development. susan, your thoughts about what looks to be the decline to almost infinitely little size of newt gingrich today. >> well, i think one big factor is 45 -- we've seen all these tv ads, night and day, on iowa television stations. 45% of the tv ads are attack ads on newt gingrich. so it would be a phenomenal character who could withstand

that kind of assault. >> but he's been around a million years. why would people believe the negative on him? >> and he's a target-rich environment, right? there's not just one thing you can criticize about newt gingrich. you can criticize his temperament -- >> excuse me, why did the souffle rise so high and so quickly, and just come down like such a bad meal? what happened? >> because that's what's happened with perry and bachmann and cain and all of them. because there's a hunger for some more interesting dynamic character than mitt romney is, and voters think they've found him. and he shoots up. and then they discover he's flawed and he goes down. and mitt romney is right there. at the same percentage he got four years ago, 25% was what he got in the iowa caucuses. >> yeah, i know mitt romney, by the way, we have 23, which is the number he seems to ride around the country. earlier this afternoon, right here at java joe's -- i knew that would work. newt gingrich met with iowa

mothers in a media event ran by frank luntz. frank asked gingrich about his own mother, a surprising one, except at this point in the campaign, when everybody's tired, especially the candidates. let's watch. >> what moment do you think of when you think of your mom? >> well, first of all, you'll get me all teary-eyed. clis calista will tell you, i get teary-eyed every time we send christmas cards. there, i'm starting to tear. my mom -- excuse me. my whole emphasis on brain science comes in directly from dealing -- see how i'm getting emotional? of dealing with the real problems of real people in my family. so it's not a theory, it's in fact, you know, my mother. >> wow. well, howard, i mean, i want to say something about at the end of the show about the role of tears. we've all covered politicians. politicians, when they lose elections or are in bad trouble, cry. i've seen it in every party. it happens. it's the only business in which

you ask everybody to like you, and then you get a verdict from everybody, and they all tell you in most cases, we don't like you. and every once in a while they say they like somebody for a while and then they tell them they don't like them. >> they don't cry in public. and we saw with newt gingrich, i was in the room at java joe's when he cried this morning. >> were you surprised? >> yes. and it was a human moment. you know, you don't get very many human moments on the campaign trail. and it did remind me of the moment four years ago in new hampshire where hillary clinton teared up -- she didn't cry quite as much as newt gingrich did, and you suddenly see this human being behind the campaign. >> but this -- i didn't see him here, but i saw him at the event before that. the first one he did this morning. and he looked tired. he looked like he was worn out. >> i think that's a big part of it. >> he looked like he'd taken on something more than he could handle. and he's in terrible shape. he's 68. he thinks he can go like he went 30 years ago, and he doesn't understand that if you're going to run for president, you have to build a big apparatus that

you have to sit comfortably on top of. and we make fun of this system, of electing people. but if you're going to be president of the united states, you have to know how to build and preside over that kind of instrument. and he just didn't know how to do it. in addition to the fact that he's been attacked mercilessly, often justifiably, for his record over the last 20 years. and newt is nothing if not an egomaniacal guy. >> imagine going back to your hotel room with your wife and sitting and watching television as you're trashed. >> and he didn't respond. he never really responded. >> he didn't have the money. >> let's take a look at a campaign stop in west des moines where mitt romney was joined by -- talking about bringing in the big cloud -- chris christie. i got in close and got a little bit of the conversation with both these fellas. let's watch. >> how's he helping your campaign, governor? >> he makes it real clear that we're going to bring real change to washington. >> would he be a good running mate? >> thank you. there are a number of people who'd be terrific. >> i got a lot out of that.

at the same event win got ahold of christie and asked him about romney. let's take a look at that. >> i see the ticket! i see the ticket before me. >> how you doing, chris? good to see you. >> we'll see. >> i don't think so. listen, i don't know. he's going to do really well here, but i don't know what that means. >> is second place good enough? >> he'll do well. i'm not setting predictions for him. >> is first or second good enough? >> listen, he's going to do really well, chris. i'm watching you from new jersey. >> can you bring jersey in on the ticket? bring jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio and break this thing wide open. >> he's going to win jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio in the general. >> because you're on the ticket? >> because he's the best guy. jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio are practical people, you know that. and the fact is they know this is wrong and it's not going right and he's the right guy to fix it. >> are you going across the country with him now? >> i'm going wherever he asks me to go. >> this guy's joined the team. i do think it's a possible

ticket. but there's so many. john thune -- i'm ahead of myself. let's stop talking about romney winning this thing. is this a rock meeting a hard place or whatever? because an unmovable force meeting an unstoppable object. here's a guy who's had a ceiling because the evangelicals don't like him. he's a moderate, he's lds, all that. whatever the factors are, he seems to be stuck at 23%, romney, nationwide and here in iowa. at the same time, they want a winner. so people are somewhat coalescing about him, somewhat. in the crowd we saw today. you're demurring here? >> i'm demurring a little bit. talking to the romney people out there, they're genuinely worried that rick santorum will be able to consolidate all those evangelicals which could get him above the 24, 25% ceiling that romney has. i talked to one guy out there wearing a romney sticker, and i said, tell my why you're for mitt romney. and he said, well, i'm not 100% for mitt romney, but he does seem to be a sane guy. >> there's a standard. in the clown car, one guy's sane.

>> and that might be enough to get him the 24% or 25% that he needs. but the romney people are being very careful not to predict at anything more than that. >> my daughter says, the night you let the less drunk guy drive. that's what goes on. >> they're not worried about ron -- they figure they can -- the romney people figure they can explain away ron paul, but they have more trouble explaining away a surge -- >> well, here's that surge in rick santorum with the most committed voters. look what he's got. 59% say they're with him to the end as a candidate. they ain't going to switch. ron paul, rick perry, and mitt romney are all close behind him. that's the percentage of people who say they're totally with him. but that's in the low 50s. we're in the real science here, we're in the metrics here, susan. but here's the question. will the full committed people of santorum drive their way through the evangelicals, get the lion's share of that 46% come tuesday night, and overtake romney, who can't seem to bust free from 23-25? >> well, it's possible -- >> howard sized it up. >> but the other candidates aren't backing away. rick perry's on the air here all the time --

>> but rick perry doesn't have the brains to be president. [ laughter ] i mean, he doesn't have the basis -- the necessaries. >> we're talking metrics here. >> they'll split that appeal. >> what's the apeat? >> the appeal of rick perry? that he seems to be a decent guy, to the evangelicals, he seems to be a decent guy with his heart in the right place, even if he doesn't have -- >> upstairs. >> the rest of it. >> thank you. >> he's the nation's senior governor of a big state. >> but texas. just kidding! i was going to say liberals, but that would be pushing it. anyway, thank you, susan page. you know these -- how many of these have you covered? >> this is my ninth caucuses. >> we are brigadoon characters, aren't? coming up, why don't evangelical voters get in line behind one candidate? i don't know why we're encouraging this, but if they get behind santorum instead of splitting their vote between perry, bachmann, gingrich and

the rest of them, they won't have any clout. we're teaching evangelicals tonight how to have more political clout. we'll be back from java joe's in des moines. first, i caught up with some voters at that romney rally today, let's watch. >> tell me about your vote and how you see your vote next day in the caucuses. >> i feel like i don't need my president to be my moral compass or my religious compass, i need him to take care of my paycheck and that's why i'm out here supporting romney. what is it about taking a first step that we find so compelling? is it because taking a step represents hope? or triumph? at genworth, we believe in taking small steps every day to keep your promises, protect what matters, and prepare for a secure financial future.

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welcome back to "hardball." what an exciting campaign. four years ago, mike huckabee won in iowa by gaining overwhelming support from the people who identify as evangelicals. and this year the evangelical field is a little more crowded and a lot more divided among the following -- rick santorum, who's doing the best, rick perry, who's hanging in there, michele bachmann, who's fading. as the saying goes, the shape of the field defines the winner. that's a massachusetts political expression, which means, if

you're the only evangelical against four secular candidates, you win. or if you're the only evangelical among four seculars, you win. jimmy carter was the only conservative among four democratic liberals. that's how he won. so will mitt romney be the big winner as the secular candidate thanks to the inability of evangelical voters to coalesce around one candidate? we've got the two experts of maybe not all-time, but near-time. mark halperin and john heilemann is national affairs editor of "new york" magazine and msnbc political analyst. that's the way cary grant used to say it. new york! let me ask you both -- one of the three us, i believe, isn't an evangelical. let's get that straight. we are looking inside the fish bowl. why can't they find one guy or person they like the most? you first, mark. >> four years ago mitt romney had to run against three other. establishment candidates. and huckabee was able to be the evangelical to consolidate. it's a mirror image this time. they can't consolidate because all of them have had moments, all of them have sacrificed for

months to run for president. rick perry, a little bit less than the others. they don't want to give up. they don't particularly like each other. and they all think that they can be the one to emerge from here as the romney alternative. it's kind of a prisoner's dilemma. if they got together, they could do what they all want to do individually, but fighting each other, romney now, mirror image. the only establishment candidate against not just the three you named, but gingrich, and to some extent, ron paul also have the same kind of backing. >> i was at that 801 steakhouse the otr night, and the lobsters in the lobster tank who got through the night, you know, the ones that are still there -- >> the 1% lobs terse? >> they don't let any lobster get out of the tank. they see one getting out of the tank, they pull them back in. no evangelical wants the other evangelical to win. for example, it looks like rick santorum, who's roman catholic, actually, but charismatic. a conservative catholic. he's starting to pull away. can he pull away by next tuesday and overtake romney as the big winner out of iowa? >> i think it depends. he's certainly like -- this is a momentum game, right? who gets hot at the end.

rick santorum has the hot hand right now, and particularly the hot hand among this -- voting bloc we're talking about >> but you've got -- the candidates aren't going to do that. the voters are going to make that decision. the problem for santorum, he's benefiting from bachmann's collapse, for sure. and she's kind of on the way down. >> we saw her yesterday with 12 people at an event, at the most. >> the problem he's facing, and i think it was the most interesting thing in the nbc poll, that perry is still holding steady, and actually even ticking up a little bit. >> is that tv advertising? >> it is totally, i think, a matter of money. and it shows you the contrast between the two of them. if santorum had perry's money, i would bet today he would win the caucuses. but he's totally broke. he's got momentum, but no money. perry's got more money than momentum. he 'spent more than any other candidate i think. >> let's take a look at a number of the candidates that are using a strong sell in their tv ad buys to go after evangelical voters, trying to win them. here's an ad by rick santorum, showing some power here, touting his marriage and family. there's even an appearance from mike huckabee in the ad. let's watch.

♪ ♪ ♪ >> so, big family, happy family. i think that's all true, by the way. i think it's a legitimate ad for once from anybody. he really does have a great marriage, and 21 years ain't much, but it's something. you know, i'm 31, so, i don't know what everybody's bragging about. anybody got more than 21 here? >> look at you -- oh, everybody in iowa's got a longer marriage than rick perry. >> there's like a 20-year-old kid back there that put his hand up just now. >> he's a good iowa candidate. he's been to all 99 counties. he speaks the language of a lot of the voters here. he hasn't had a lot of money, although he is on tv now. i think the thing that could be the moment for him that pivots, where he could consolidate. not the -- he's gotten some endorsements here from evangelical leaders, some

nationally, but what could consolidate for him in the voters' minds is "the des moines register" poll saturday night, tomorrow night. if he's doing well in that -- >> they're smart, evangelicals are smart. they'll go with the leader. >> they'll go with someone who they think can win this thing. >> with a punch. >> and send a message. that's right. >> do you agree? >> i think the consolidation is going to happen not because one of the other candidates decides to throw up their hands, but because voters decide there's one that has the best chance of winning. >> here's perry trying to stop that from happening. here he is talking about in an ad as what he sees as a war on christianity in this country. let's watch this ad. >> i'm not ashamed to admit that i'm a christian. but you don't need to be in the pew every sunday to know there's something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't openly celebrate christmas or pray in school. as president, i'll end obama's war on religion and i'll fight against liberal attacks on our religious heritage. >> you know, i could argue with that ad for a thousand years. i don't know what the connection is between letting people serve the way god made them in the military.

nobody made themselves gay. god made them what they are, allow them to serve their country if they love it. i don't see what the problem is with that. number two. why can't you pray in public school if you want to pray? nobody's stopping you. you just don't have an organized reading of the king james version of the bible anymore. that's the difference -- >> do you want me to go get rick perry and bring him -- >> i don't understand what his case is. >> well, what's most -- >> i do understand it, by the way. >> what's marginally interesting to me about that ad, when he got in the race, his adviser said, the religious conservative rick perry is not going to be front and center, it's going to be the job creator in texas. he mentions that occasionally, but his advertising and a lot of his rhetoric on the stump is about anti-washington, the religious issues. he's gotten away from the message he thought would bring him to the nomination. >> i've known rick santorum from pennsylvania, i've always liked him, although i disagree with a lot of his stuff. he is what he is. he's not like romney who would speak french, but wouldn't show it in the daylight, right? >> it would have been --

>> he isn't some other guy hiding somewhere. he is rick santorum. >> let's say one thing about that ad. it would have been better if he had done it without the brokeback mountain jacket on. but the second thing is, this is true, what mark just said is really true, he has spent all that money -- >> was that a secret code that we missed? >> he has not had a consistent message. all the money has not rebounded as much to his message as we thought it would have. >> but santorum never talks about the economy, or hardly ever. >> he does -- look, he's gotten no scrutiny. there's been -- perry's gone after him in the last 48 hours a little bit, but the rick santorum record is not going to be scrutinized between now and tuesday. >> let me try a headline by you guys. suppose the headline in the papers next wednesday after iowa, and all the papers, "the des moines register" and "the new york times" is -- let's see, paul edges romney, santorum finishes strong. is that a good prediction?

>> it's certainly plausible. i don't think it's most likely. but it's plausible. >> i think it's plausible and sounds pretty good for mitt romney. >> thank you very much, mark halperin and john heilemann. you're not agreeing yet. not signing up. "the des moines register" poll, saturday. coming up, how many candidates will survive and how many will get kicked off the island if they say -- in other words, no more campaigning? you're done. you're watching "hardball" from des moines, iowa, coming up only on msnbc. can you say "let them eat cake" in french? >> i can, but i won't. i take an omega for my heart.

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we're back at java joe's. what a wild crowd. i think sometimes the only people who come in here are democrats. but that's just -- i'm going to keep looking. this is supposed to be a republican big show -- big story. let me ask you about newt gingrich tearing up, right in the other room here of java joe's.

it seems that we've watched this across both gender sides. ed muskie was supposed to have cried in new hampshire. pat schroeder from colorado, senator clinton, hillary clinton, and of course this guy now. my experiences behind the scenes, they all cry when they're in trouble politically. it's a personal reaction, usually when they're totally exhausted, they get emotional. what does it tell you? >> to me, it comes off as phony. they're at this every day, day in and day out, and all of a sudden, right near the end, it seems like the tear ducts come in. and to me, it strikes me as phony. >> do you think it's an appeal for sympathy? >> oh, yeah, absolutely. >> really? you're a hard guy. >> absolutely. >> i want to ask a woman. do you agree with that, that this is a show? that the tears are for show? are crocodile tears? >> not usually. i think they seem to be genuine, at the time. >> do you think it's driven by tiredness? exhaustion? >> that could be a good part of it. >> what do you think? >> i think when you're tired, you're emotionally vulnerable. >> do you think it shows newt gingrich to be more of a mensch?

>> i don't think i better respond. >> you don't want to go that far? >> let me ask this guy. do you think newt gingrich is trying to show his softer side here or what? >> i just can't say too much good about newt gingrich. >> well, i'm with you, bro. let me go to you. sir, what do you think -- too many teardrops? isn't there a big song? "too many teardrops"? i like that song. >> i think he's sincere. i think he's just tired. exhausted. >> i'm with you, actually. >> i don't think it was sincere, but when hillary cried, it was sincere. >> that's what we like. true political prejudice. that's what we're all guilty of that. not you. you're exactly who i want to talk to. why not you? >> i have nothing to say. >> nothing to say? gosh. we don't like that. over here. there you are. >> hey! >> excellent reading material. >> great reading material. >> what's the name of that book? >> "jack kennedy: elusive hero." >> thank you. let me ask you about your views.

to crying in politics, ed muskie. he totally denied it. he didn't cry, it was the tear or the snow in his eyes. do you think tears hurt a politician or gives them a human side? >> i think it gives them a human side, but i don't think newt gingrich has much of a human side. i think he's tired. >> thank you. most of the people here are cynical. they have no hearts, and they think newt gingrich doesn't either. anyway, we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] wouldn't it be cool if you took the top down on a crossover? if there were buttons for this? wouldn't it be cool if your car could handle the kids... ♪ ...and the nurburgring? or what if you built a car in tennessee that could change the world? yeah, that would be cool. nissan. innovation for today. innovation for tomorrow. innovation for all. ♪

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i'm richard l. i. here are some of the stories we're following. a series of downward arrows on the final day of trading. the dow shedding 69, the nasdaq down 8. in a year where every loss seemed to be followed by a gain, the dow closed up 5.5% over

december 30th, 12010. verizon fixing an oops from yesterday. it announced it will not add a new surcharge to monthly bills. verizon says it heard customer complaints. since the start of 2011, the population grew by 2.2 million people. by the time the new year's ball drops, nearly 313 million people will live in the united states. spell of that well-lit ball. it came down today in a successful dress rehearsal. an estimated 1 million expected to watch the real date. russell brand divorcing s g songstress katy perry. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball."

an incredible changing environment out here right now for republicans who have watched candidate after candidate top the charts for a couple of weeks and then collapse in a heat. heap. take a look. first came michele bachmann. her performance as shown by the black line there. she reached a peak in mid-july and then fell fast. look at the numbers, they're taken over time. then perry, the blue line that comes on there right now, very much matches it. was the next to steam up and then lose all favor. look how that works now. the new arc. then it was herman cain's term. he did very well. look how well he did, climbing to his high in late october, fairly recently. and of course, most recently gingrich took the lead before starting his descent. look, there's the green. see the patterns? they all have their peaks and they all sequenced after a serial love affairs, one after another after another. people fall for their candidates in a big way, and then they die. now the caucuses are going to answer a big question, who's going to get out of here. i guess my question is tough.

you're both objective reporters, you don't deal in opinion. i notice you pointed that out before we started. jennifer jacobs is the chief politics reporter for the "des moines register," the key newspaper here, and liz sidoti is the political editor for the associated press. these are big jobs. it seems to me the guy that could have come through here without even stopping could have been mitt romney. he doesn't need to do better than top two or three, fine. but bachmann and perry, do they have to prove that they can hold on to some of that vote against the very strong performance now of rick santorum? >> those are the two that are probably the most in peril. you know, michele bachmann, this is her home state, so if she doesn't make a case here, she's going to have a hard time after she moves on. but she's still trying to -- >> why is it her home state? >> she was born here. yes, native here. so, you know -- >> is that known? >> iowans definitely know that. she's made a very big point of that. if she can't do well in iowa, how is she going to do well elsewhere? she's still trying to inspire confidence. her crowds today in iowa were just minuscule.

our xwaet reporter who covers her said they were just small, disinterested crowd. no more than 30. >> i was there yesterday, at one of those crowds, it was very small. let me ask you about this, jennifer, the same question to you. who's imperiled right now? can't get a ticket out of here? maybe. >> i think you have to look at their bank accounts, not just the voter -- how they end up on january -- june -- hello, what day is it? january 3rd. but you have to look beyond iowa. who's going to have the money to put organizations in all these other states and who's going to have the momentum to go the distance? and the fact of the matter is, it's really only three people who are going to be able to do that. mitt romney and ron paul. they're not only doing well here, but they actually have organizations and money in other states. >> is newt running out of money as well? >> i think it's going to be difficult for newt to raise money if he's not in the top three heading out here. >> and his hope -- excuse me. his hope, liz, is to try to last long enough to get to the next debate, which is almost like his oasis. if he can get to a debate,

right, jennifer, he's one guy that can live off the land. he's so successful in the debates. and one thing that killed him out here, right, is there haven't been many debates for while. >> and that's why perry is doing well. perry is best at retail campaigning, that one-on-one contact -- >> and advertising. >> right. more people are showing up to see rick perry, he's finally dedicating some time here, and he's not debating. >> let me ask you about the role of iowa. iowa made jimmy carter. in many ways i would argue it made president obama. winning out here sort of established him, almost the way that bush won the presidency, to the extent he deserved to win it, because he was seen as the first sort of flash winner, when the first count came in. your thoughts about iowa? is it going to remain a powerful picker of presidents? >> i think so. you know, we have a lot of confidence in who our you know our iowans choose. and it just seems like no matter who they choose, the caucuses just go on strong every year, or every four years. >> is it important to iowa? >> definitely. and they take it so seriously. you know that. >> i want to get back, same question to you, looking

nationally, liz, do you think iowa's going to hold the power that new hampshire's seemed to hold forever? >> i think what happens in new hampshire and south carolina and florida will dictate whether or not iowa continues to be seen as, you know, a place every candidate has to play. don't forget about new hampshire. and you know this. new hampshire's fickle, an independent-leaning state. they may not like what happens if mitt romney wins here. are they going to turn their back on him and choose someone else or not? >> let's take a look at the new ads. an example of the tough ads newt has had to deal with. this has been brutal on him. a pro-romney super pac released this ad this week, trashing his mistakes. let's take a look at this. this is a brutal, almost knock him out ad. >> ever notice how some people make a lot of mistakes? >> it was probably a mistake. >> i made a mistake. >> i've made mistakes at times. >> whoops! >> so far, newt gingrich has admitted his mistakes or flipped on teaming up with nancy pelosi, immigration, medicare, health care, iraq, attacking mitt romney, and more.

>> i made a big mistake in the spring. >> haven't we had enough mistakes? >> and ron paul released this ad targeting both gingrich and romney. let's watch. >> the washington machine is strangling our economy. politicians who supported bailouts and mandates, serial hypocrites and flip-floppers can't clean up the mess. one man stands alone. a real plan to cut $1 trillion year one, balance the budget in three. consistent, incorruptible, guided by faith and principle. ron paul, the one we've been looking for. >> well, at least it ends positively. liz, it just looks to me, i don't know how you can sit at home. i don't know how you can take it? it's brutal! >> yeah, it really is. >> it is brutal! you turn on the tv for relief from your home care, it is worse than life. it's really tough. you know?

you're smiling, but it's -- how -- i thought philly, the delaware valley of south jersey area was bad, but every judge is a crook. everyone running for re-election is terrible. these ads are awful. especially against newt. who one reason why he's cranky, cries, he has a tv set. [ laughter ] >> well, look, chris, they worked, right? look at these negative ads. and this is midwestern country, you know, it is midwestern iowa. iowa nice. what happened there? you know, in 2004, we saw, you know, negative ads go up and there was backlash. and in 2008 -- >> what happened to iowa nice? jennifer? >> what do you mean? >> well, iowa's always had a reputation for being, they don't like nasty people. they don't like nasty tv ads, they don't like negativity. >> they still don't. and if you ask them, they will always say that. which is why they liked gingrich. you know, he was the front-runner in our poll at the end of november, and the most common thing i heard from people, the reason they

liked him was because he rose above it. he didn't engage on that republican-on-republican violence. they really did like that about him. but that's kind of slipped. he spends all his time on the defense and -- >> punching back. >> exactly. >> here's the awful part, the deceit part. romney was mr. charm out there. he was singing "america the beautiful," one of my favorite songs, our favorite song as americans, a beautiful song. he had all the lyrics down, he has kristi with him, his beautiful wife with him, all that going for him, meanwhile his super pac ad is kicking the bejesus out of newt, in the butt. over and over. someone said, he gets loftier in his words as his ads get nastier. it could be they say i like this mitt romney while his ads are destroying the opponents. >> i think this is the story of this campaign. this is how the campaign finance system has been changed by the citizens united ruling, allowing these allied groups to come in and pour a ton of money in, and allowing the candidate to say, hey, i'm positive, it's not me. >> people are being deceived, right? >> you'll have plenty of strategists point out that gingrich is sinking in new hampshire too, and not a single negative ad has been run against him there.

so, you know people -- >> "the des moines register" poll is coming out saturday, right? >> right. >> what time? >> 7:00 p.m. >> the whole world will know who's going to win, right? >> it's going to predict it. >> i hear you're good. it's great to meet you. good to have you on. >> thank you. up next, we've got the most revealing moment of the presidential race so far. the one that said more about the candidates than they ever intended. this is very fun, coming up here. very fun. if that means anything. "hardball" from java joe's in des moines, only on msnbc. are you for romney? >> yes. >> tell me why. >> i was for him the last time. >> do you think he'll do better this time? >> yes. >> what's changed from '08? >> i don't think anything's changed from '08. i think we now know what's out there is not working and we're looking forward to a change. ♪

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try align to help retain a balanced digestive system. try the #1 gastroenterologist recommended probiotic. align. welcome back to "hardball." in this 2012 republican race, some of the most revealing moments came in the knockout punch not taken, the barely stifled frustration, the brain freeze. we call them the "tell me when you really think" statements that told us more about a candidate than anything else they said. roger simon, who invented the road show in politics, is chief political columnist for politico, and chris hayes is host of msnbc's "up with chris hayes." on saturday mornings at 7:00 and sunday mornings at 8:00. chris, thanks for joining us. roger, i want chris to start with this one. let's take a look at this one. mitt romney probably that he was on friendly turf with a fox interview, but when challenged,

we see his barely contained frustration at having to answer a question from bret baird. watch his body language here. react to this, chris. >> do you think a mandate, mandating people to buy insurance is the right tool? >> brett, i don't know how many hundred times i've said this too -- this is an unusual interview. all right, let's do it again! >> chris, i've never seen a candidate re-cross his legs in the middle of an interview with great frustration. >> it was an interesting physiological response, because he was clearly trying to contain just barely suppressed rage in that moment. what i thought was interesting about it was, a, it was a question, if you hired a 19-year-old to do a little bit of research or tee up a question to mitt romney, it was one of the first that he would ask. and the fact that he felt so offended by the question said to me that he had not been spending enough time in interviews. in fact he was running one of the most closed-off press shop since that moment. i think this shows that his muscles had atrophied. it also shows that romney had a temper.

we saw his temper flare during the debate when he put his hand on the shoulder of rick perry. we've seen it in a few moments. it's been written about a bit. and this was one of those points where it bubbled up. and you know, a campaign, a modern campaign tests people to their very depths and core. and you're going to see more of that as it drags on. >> yeah, but romney's still hiding from most of us. let's take a look at this. this is fox, after all, not exactly dangerous territory. here's tim pawlenty previewing his killer line against romney on fox the day before the new hampshire debate. let's listen to what he promised to say in the debate. >> president obama said that he designed obama care after romney care. and basically made it obamney-care. an interesting line. but when it came time to deliver that line in the actual debate, tim pawlenty, the governor, punted. listen, moderator john king

tried to get him to say. >> governor, you just heard the governor rebut your characterization, obamanycare, why? >> let me first say to sylvia, she has put her finger on one of the most important issues facing the country, which is president obama stood before the nation in 2008 and said he promised to do health care reform, focused on cost containment, along with republicans. to do health care reform focused on cost containment. >> the question, governor, was why obamney care. >> that's right. i'm going to get to that, john. >> your rival is standing right there. if it was obamney care on fox news sunday, why isn't it obamney care standing here? >> president obama is the man i quoted saying he looked to massachusetts for designing his program. >> roger, what happened? >> it's truly said in politics is a friend is somebody that stabs you in the front. here is pawlenty, who's willing to stab romney in the back. when it comes to a national debate, and he's got to stand there six feet from him, and repeat it, he just doesn't have the guts to do it. >> you think it's guts? that's the way it comes across.

>> part of it is guts. it's hard on a stage insulting a person who's near you. this was june. it was early in the process. the press wanted to see these guys mix it up. pawlenty wouldn't play the game. he wouldn't go for it. >> you remember the scene in "presumed innocent" where they say the prosecutor has to point a finger at you and say, you did it, in front of the jury and he wasn't willing to do it. here's hick perrick perry. he had the most ill timed brain freeze. at the cnbc debate. let's watch the freeze. >> i will tell you, it's three agencies of government when i get there that are gone. commerce, education and what's the third one there? let's see. the third agency of government, i would do away with the education, the -- >> commerce. >> commerce. and let's see. i can't. the third one i can't. sorry. oops. >> you know, chris hayes, it's tough when you can't answer

somebody else's question. when you can't answer your own question, you got a deep freeze problem there. i don't know what to say about this one. oops didn't quite handle it. >> the saddest part of the entire thing were the other candidates essentially whispering the answer like helping a little child who is stumped. what's interesting about the moment in perry's debate performance, when he got in the race, there was a lot of people who said he's not ready for primetime. you saw a sort of backlash particularly among texas political writers who said don't underestimate this guy, he's won every election he's won, he's a competent politician. it turns out he's not ready for primetime. that moment epitomizes the fact he's not ready for primetime. >> the sad part is he's ready for texas. rick perry called evolution of theory that's out there and doubts man's contribution to global warming, jon huntsman fired off this tweet. "to be clear, i believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. call me crazy." you know, this is part of this weird thing the republican candidates are engaging in.

people with the educations of mitt romney, the best educations in our country, and jon huntsman, they have to hood that in republican primaries and caucus. you have to pretend you don't know what you're taught in school in order to pass muster with people who fear science. >> it's like the old days in the democratic party in the south where you had to outseg your opponent. now you have to outconserve your opponent. here was huntsman making a statement saying, look, i'm center right. you have all six, seven people on the right, here's an alternative. his staff took him aside and said, there is no center right in the republican party. >> and took all that back. >> well, yeah, you're appealing to a -- >> here's christine o'donnell. that one. who ran an unsuccessful senate campaign up in delaware. most memorable for the "i'm not a witch" line, endorsed mitt romney by highlighting his greatest vulnerability. let's listen. >> tell us who gets your endorsement.

>> i like mitt romney. >> some people say mitt romney isn't the most consistent candidate because he's changed his minds about big, important issues over the years. >> you know, that's one of the things i like about him because he's been consistent since he changed his mind. >> you first. you first, roger. consistent since he changed his mind. is that an endorsement in. >> the worst statement you can possibly make. secondly, who wants o'donnell's endorsement? you know, half the people thought she -- >> you're right. >> -- practiced witchcraft. the other half thought she still practices witchcraft. is she the person you want to endorse you? >> are you saying that endorsement in a curse? just kidding. roger simon. thank you. chris hayes. when i come back, let me finish with tears and politics and how they go together. you're watching "hardball" at java joe's in des moines on msnbc.

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let me finish tonight with this. politics is a grueling business. it's all about getting people to like you. when you get elected you think the whole world loves you. when you get defeated you feel the total rejection that is the lone experience of those who choose to put themselves before the public for approval or disabrooufl. we've looked upon you and found you wanting.

we know you and we don't like you. brutal. and the most brutal treatment comes when you are most vulnerable. when you've been out there for weeks, months, years perhaps asking people to like you. then it comes on election night or maybe a few days earlier when you see a poll. then you get it right in the gut. you get the word that all that work, all those smiles and handshakes and small talk and the best speeches you could give didn't work. you get it thrown at you cold and brutally that the verdict is no. no, not you now, not you now, now you ever. got it? we don't like you. this afternoon, newt gingrich, one of the roughest of politicians showed tears. believe me, he's not the first. crying in defeat comes with the business. it's usually backstage when the candidate gets the word or on the air force one at 1:00 in the morning or sitting in a hotel room. you know it's over. people got you and decided they didn't like you. you may have been through it, with a girl or boy by the way, or later in life. you know the feeling. candidates for public office get it with a bigger punch. it isn't one person saying no to you. it's a mass of people saying not