good to see you. thanks for being here this morning. >> keep well, sir. >> i'll do my best. >> look at that. >> i'm chris matthews. let's play "hardball"! good evening. i'm chris matthews at java joe's in des moines, iowa. the republican nominees are heading into their final week of campaigning before tuesday's caucuses. four days to go now until the first big results of 2012. leading off tonight, romney goes for the kill. our new nbc news/marist poll has

mitt romney leading the field here in iowa. it's the second poll this week to show romney on top. and one of many polls showing newt gingrich is in dead free-fall. the pressure may be getting to newt, who became teary-eyed this afternoon here at java joe's. one reason romney's doing so well here is evangelical voters are split. they're torn among rick santorum, rick perry, romney, gingrich and michele bachmann. together, the religious-oriented candidates, that's santorum, perry, and bachmann, get 35% in a new poll, but apart they're giving romney a real path to victory through their division. and how many tickets are there out of iowa? how many people would come from here to other parts of the debate and the campaign? who's out of the race if they don't have a strong finish on tuesday night? we're going to answer that tonight. we're going to look at which of the candidates are most likely to quit after the iowa caucuses this coming tuesday. and tell me what you really think. we've got the most revealing moments of the republican race so far. the statements that really tell us more about the candidates that even they ever intended to tell us.

finally, let me finish with the role of politics and human tears. we start with mitt romney going for the kill. howard fineman is an msnbc political analyst and the huffington post media group editorial director. and susan page is the washington bureau chief for "usa today." well, here we are at java joe's, ground central, on a quiet little street in des moines, that just happens to come alive like brigadoon every four years, and we're all here. i think we're part of the brigadoon characters. let's take a look at the latest nbc news/marist poll. mitt romney leads the pack, but still at that ceiling of 23. that weird number keeps popping up like on a roulette wheel, like in "casablanca," it keeps coming up to 23. four points up from earlier this month, however. ron paul's a close second, he's up a couple points. rick santorum is on the rise more dramatically, jumping nine points into third place. and he's apparently still

rising. and newt gingrich has continued his dead decline, down 15 points to finish in fifth place. what is going on? let's do -- like we like to do on "hardball," let's go to the bad news first. why is newt gingrich dying in des moines? >> well, chris -- >> and davenport, and other cities in iowa. >> i saw him early this morning at a country club with a rotary club crowd that was a pre-made crowd. it wasn't his crowd, it was the rotary club. >> they let in nonmembers? >> yeah. >> okay. >> and when newt started to speak, it sounded to me like a valedictory. it sounded to me he was beginning to say why he failed. he said in front of this rotary crowd meeting, he said, i can't do modern politics. meaning that there's something about the way that a big, national, industrialized presidential campaign works that he just never figured out. and if he ever does figure it out, it's going to be too late. that's one thing that's happening to him here.

>> who was the guy, the african-american guy in mythic history, who was the pile driver -- >> john henry. >> and he would pound those piles in until he had to finally run against the machine, and the machine beat him. or he beat the machine and then died. >> that's certainly how newt views himself. it's kind of a self-serving analysis. he's saying, i'm the honest guy who wanted to run a positive campaign, just talk about the issues. i won the debates, i was running like i was a member of the house on the floor of the house. not this weird thing that is presidential politics. he's, of course, going to blame the system. >> so a republican running against industrialization. >> yes. >> industrial politics. >> there's a strange development. susan, your thoughts about what looks to be the decline to almost infinitely little size of newt gingrich today. >> well, i think one big factor is 45 -- we've seen all these tv ads, night and day, on iowa television stations. 45% of the tv ads are attack ads on newt gingrich. so it would be a phenomenal character who could withstand that kind of assault. >> but he's been around a million years. why would people believe the negative on him?

>> and he's a target-rich environment, right? there's not just one thing you can criticize about newt gingrich. you can criticize his temperament -- >> excuse me, why did the souffle rise so high and so quickly, and just come down like such a bad meal? what happened? >> because that's what's happened with perry and bachmann and cain and all of them. because there's a hunger for some more interesting dynamic character than mitt romney is, and voters think they've found him. and he shoots up. and then they discover he's flawed and he goes down. and mitt romney is right there. at the same percentage he got four years ago, 25% was what he got in the iowa caucuses. >> yeah, i know mitt romney, by the way, we have 23, which is the number he seems to ride around the country. let's look at a campaign stop in west des moines we covered with mitt romney joined by new jersey governor. talk about bringing in the big cloud from back east. chris christie, i got in close and got a little bit of conversation with both these fellas. >> how's he helping your campaign, governor? >> he makes it real clear that we're going to bring real change

to washington. >> would he be a good running mate? >> thank you. there are a number of people who'd be terrific. >> i got a lot out of that. at the same event i got a hold of christie and asked him about romney. let's listen to that. >> i see the ticket! i see the ticket before me. >> how you doing, chris? good to see you. >> we'll see. >> i don't think so. listen, i don't know. he's going to do really well here, but i don't know what that means. >> is second place good enough? >> he'll do well. i'm not saying -- >> is first or second good enough? >> listen, he's going to do really well, chris. you watch tuesday night. you'll be here, right? i'm watching you from new jersey. >> can you bring jersey in on the ticket? bring jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio and break this thing wide open. >> he's going to win jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio in the general. >> because you're on the ticket? >> because he's the best guy. >> he is! >> jersey, pennsylvania, and ohio are practical people. you know that. and the fact is they know this is wrong and it's not going right and he's the right guy to fix it. >> are you going across the country with him now?

>> i'm going wherever he asks me to go. >> this guy's joined the team. i do think it's a possible ticket. but there's so many, john thune, if this guy -- i'm ahead of myself. let's stop talking about romney winning this thing. is this a rock meeting a hard place or whatever? because an unmovable force meeting an unstoppable object. here's a guy who's had a ceiling because the evangelicals don't like him. they don't thinke's one of them. he's a moderate, he's lds, all that. whatever the factors are, he seems to be stuck at 23%, romney, nationwide and here in iowa. at the same time, they want a winner. so people are somewhat coalescing about him, somewhat. in the crowd we saw today. you're demurring here? he can break that 23? >> i'm demurring a little bit. talking to the romney people out there, they're genuinely worried that rick santorum will somehow be able to consolidate all those evangelicals which could get him above the 23%, 24%, 25% ceiling that romney had. i talked to one guy out there wearing a romney sticker, and i said, tell my why you're for mitt romney. and he said, well, i'm not 100%

for mitt romney, but he does seem to be a sane guy. >> there's a standard. in the clown car, one guy's sane. >> he's going -- and that might be enough to get him the 24% or 25% that he needs. but the romney people are being very careful not to predict at anything more than that. >> my daughter says, the night you let the less drunk guy drive. that's what goes on. >> they're not worried about ron -- they figure they can -- the romney people figure they can explain away ron paul, but they have more trouble explaining away a surge -- >> well, here's that surge in rick santorum with the most committed voters. 59% say they're with him to the end as a candidate. they ain't going to switch. ron paul, rick perry, and mitt romney are all close behind him. that's the percentage of people who say they're totally with him. but that's in the low 50s. we're in the real science here, we're in the metrics here, susan. but here's the question. will the full committed people of santorum drive their way through the evangelicals, get the lion's share of that 46% come tuesday night, and overtake

romney, who can't seem to bust free from 23-25? >> well, it's possible -- >> howard sized it up. >> but the other candidates aren't backing away. rick perry's on the air here all the time -- >> but rick perry doesn't have the brains to be president. he doesn't have -- >> rick perry as a candidate -- >> he doesn't have the bases. >> we're talking metrics here. and you've got other candidates who will be splitting the vote. >> what's the appeal? >> the appeal of rick perry? that he seems to be a decent guy, to the evangelicals, he seems to be a decent guy with his heart in the right place, even if he doesn't have -- >> upstairs. >> the rest of it. >> he's the nation's senior governor of a big state. >> but texas. okay, thank you howard fineman. just kidding! i was going to say liberals, but that would be pushing it. anyway, thank you susan. how many of these have you covered? >> this is my ninth caucuses. >> we are brigadoon characters, aren't we? we come out here -- >> she has me beat by one. coming up, why don't evangelical voters get in line behind one candidate? i don't know why we're encouraging this, but if they

get behind santorum instead of splitting their vote between perry, bachmann, gingrich and the rest of them, they're not going to have any clout out here. we're teaching evangelicals tonight how to have more political clout. we'll be back from java joe's in des moines. first my quote from voters at that romney rally today, let's watch. >> tell me about your vote and how you see your vote next day in the caucuses. >> i feel like i don't need my president to be my moral compass or my religious compass, i need him to take care of my paycheck and that's why i'm out here supporting romney. when you have tough pain, do you want fast relief? try bayer advanced aspirin. it's not the bayer aspirin you know. it's different. first...it's been re-engineered with micro-particles. second, it enters the bloodstream fast, and rushes relief to the site of your tough pain. the best part? it's proven to relieve pain twice as fast as before.

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welcome back to "hardball." what an exciting campaign. four years ago, mike huckabee won in iowa by gaining overwhelming support from the people who identify as evangelicals. and this year the evangelical field is a little more crowded and a lot more divided among the following -- rick santorum, who's doing the best, rick perry, who's hanging in there, michele bachmann, who's fading. as the saying goes, the shape of the field defines the winner. that's a massachusetts political expression, which means, if you're the only evangelical against four secular candidates, you win. or if you're the only

evangelical among four seculars, you win. jimmy carter was the only conservative among four democratic liberals. that's how he won. so will mitt romney be the big winner as the secular candidate thanks to the inability of evangelical voters to coalesce around one candidate? we've got the two experts of maybe not all-time but near-time. mark halperin is "time" magazine's editor in large and of course john heilemann is national affairs editor of new york magazine and msnbc political analyst. that's the way cary grant used to say it. new york! let me ask you both -- one of the three us, i believe, isn't an evangelical. let's make that straight. we are looking inside the fish bowl. why can't they find one guy or person they like the most? you first, mark. >> four years ago mitt romney had to run against three other establishment candidates. fred thompson, judy giuliani and john mccain. >> and huckabee. >> and huckabee was able to be the evangelical to consolidate. it's a mirror image this time. they can't consolidate because all of them have had moments, all of them have sacrificed for months to run for president.

rick perry, a little bit less than the others. they don't want to give up. they don't particularly like each other. and they all think that they can be the one to emerge from here as the romney alternative. it's kind of a prisoner's dilemma. if they got together, they could do what they all want to do individually, but fighting each other, romney now, mirror image. he's the only establishment candidate against not just the three you named, but gingrich, and to some extent, ron paul, also have the same kind of backing. >> i was at that 801 steakhouse the other night, and the lobsters in the lobster tank that got through the night, the ones that are still there, they don't let any lobster get out of the tank. they see one getting out of the tank, they pull them back in. no evangelical wants the other evangelical to win. for example, it looks like rick santorum, who's roman catholic, actually, but charismatic. a conservative catholic. he's starting to pull away. can he pull away by next tuesday and overtake romney as the big winner out of iowa? >> i think it depends. he's certainly like -- this is a momentum game, right? who gets hot at the end. rick santorum has the hot hand

right now, and particularly the hot hand among this -- >> but they're -- >> but you've got -- the candidates aren't going to do that. the voters are going to make that decision. the problem for santorum, he's benefiting from bachmann's collapse, for sure. and she's kind of on the way down. >> we saw her yesterday with 12 people at an event, at the most. >> the problem he's facing, and i think it was the most interesting thing in the nbc poll, that perry is still holding steady, and actually even ticking up a little bit. >> that tv advertising? >> it is totally, i think, a matter of money. and it shows you the contrast between the two of them. if santorum had perry's money, i would bet today that he would win the caucuses. but he's totally broke. he's got momentum but no money. perry's got no momentum but got enough money to be on television everywhere. >> let's take a look at a number of the candidates that are using a strong sell in their tv ad buys to go after evangelical voters, trying to win them. he's an ad by rick santorum, showing some power here, touting his marriage and family. there's even an appearance from mike huckabee in the ad. let's watch.

>> so, big family, happy family. i think that's all true, by the way. i think it's a legitimate ad for once from anybody. he really does have a great marriage, and 21 years ain't much, but it's something. you know, i'm 31, so, i don't know what everybody's bragging about. anybody got more than 21 here? >> look at you -- oh, everybody in iowa's got a longer marriage than rick perry. >> there's like a 20-year-old kid back there that put his hand up just now. >> he's a good iowa candidate. he's been to all 99 counties. he speaks the language of a lot of the voters here. he hasn't had a lot of money, although he is on tv now. i think the thing that could be the moment for him that pivots, where he could consolidate. not the -- he's gotten some endorsements here from evangelical leaders, some nationally, but what could consolidate for him in the

voters' minds is "the des moines register" poll saturday night, tomorrow night. if he's doing well in that -- >> they're smart, evangelicals are smart. they'll go with the leader. >> they'll go with someone who they think can win this thing. >> and send a message. >> do you hear that? that's so interesting. >> i think the consolidation is going to happen not because one of the other candidates decides to throw up their hands, but because voters decide there's one that has the best chance of winning. >> here's perry trying to stop that from happening. here he is talking about in an ad as what he sees as a war on christianity in this country. let's watch this ad. >> i'm not ashamed to admit that i'm a christian. but you don't need to be in the pew every sunday to know there's something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can't openly celebrate christmas or pray in school. as president, i'll end obama's war on religion and i'll fight against liberal attacks on our religious heritage. >> you know, i could argue with that ad for a thousand years. i don't know what the connection is between letting people serve the way god made them in the military. nobody made themselves gay.

god made them what they are, allow them to serve their country if they love it. i don't see what the problem is with that. number two. why can't you pray in public school if you want to pray? nobody's stopping you. you just don't have an organized reading of the king james version of the bible anymore. that's the difference. >> do you want me to go get rick perry and bring him -- >> i don't understand what his case is. i do understand it, by the way. >> what's marginally interesting to me about that ad, when he got in the race, his adviser said, the religious conservative rick perry is not going to be front and center, it's going to be the job creator in texas. he mentions that occasionally, but his advertising and a lot of his rhetoric on the stump is about anti-washington, the religious issues. he's gotten away from the message he thought would bring him to the nomination. >> i've known rick santorum from pennsylvania, i've always liked him, although i disagree witha lot of his stuff. he is what he is. rick santorum is, if you peel off the skin, deep, deep down, he'd be rick santorum. he's not like romney, who could speak french but wouldn't show it in the daylight. right? he isn't some other guy hiding somewhere. he is rick santorum. >> let's say one thing about

that ad. it would have been better if he had done it without the brokeback mountain jacket on. that's the first thing. but the second -- >> you are making connections i never would have thought of. >> but the second thing is, this is true, what mark just said is really true, he has spent all of his money on television -- >> was that a secret code that we missed? >> he has not had a consistent message. so all the money that he's spent on tv has not rebounded as much to his benefit as it might have because he's been on jobs sometimes, culture sometimes. he's been all over the place. >> but santorum never talks about the economy, or hardly ever. >> he does -- look, he's gotten no scrutiny. there's been -- perry's gone after him in the last 48 hours a little bit, but the rick santorum record is not going to be scrutinized between now and tuesday. >> let me try a headline by you guys. you write history. let me ask you to preview. suppose the headline in the papers next wednesday after iowa, and all the papers, "the des moines register" and "the new york times" is -- let's see, paul edges romney, santorum finishes strong. is that a good prediction?

>> it's certainly plausible. i don't think it's most likely. but it's plausible. >> i think it's plausible and sounds pretty good for mitt romney. >> thank you very much, mark halperin and john heilemann. you're not agreeing yet. not signing up. coming up, by the way, "the des moines register" poll, saturday. coming up, how many candidates will survive and how many will get kicked off the island, as they say, in other words no more campaigning, you're done. you're watching "hardball" from des moines, iowa, coming up only on msnbc. i habe a cohd. yeah, i toog nyguil bud i'm stild stubbed up. [ male announcer ] truth is, nyquil doesn't un-stuff your nose. really?

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we're back at java joe's. what a wild crowd. i think sometimes the only people that come in here are democrats. but that's just -- i'm going to keep looking. this is supposed to be a republican big show -- big story. let me ask you about newt gingrich tearing up, right in the other room here of java joe's. it seems that we've watched this across both gender sides. ed muskie was supposed to have cried in new hampshire. senator what's her name, pat sh roader from colorado. senator hillary clinton, and of course this guy now.

my experiences behind the scenes, they all cry when they're in trouble politically. it's a personal reaction, usually when they're totally exhausted, they get emotional. what's it tell you? >> to me, it comes off as phony. they're at this every day, day in and day out, and all of a sudden, right near the end, it seems like the tear ducts come in. and to me, it strikes me as phony. >> do you think it's an appeal for sympathy? >> oh, yeah, absolutely. >> you're a hard guy. i want to ask a woman. do you agree with that, that this is a show? that the tears are for show? are crocodile tears? >> not usually. i think they seem to be genuine, at the time. >> do you think it's driven by tiredness? exhaustion? >> that could be a good part of it. >> what do you think? >> i think when you're tired, you're emotionally vulnerable. >> do you think it shows newt gingrich to be more of a mensch? >> i don't think i better respond. >> you don't want to go that far? >> let me ask this guy. do you think newt gingrich is trying to show his softer side here or what? >> i just can't say too much

good about newt gingrich. >> well, i'm with you, bro. let me go to you. sir, what do you think -- too many teardrops? isn't there a song? too many teardrops. >> i think he's sincere. i think he's just tired. exhausted. >> thank you. i'm with you, actually. >> i don't think it was sincere, but when hillary cried, it was sincere. >> that's what we like. true political prejudice. that's what we're all guilty of that. not you. you're exactly who i want to talk to you why not you? >> i have nothing to say. >> nothing to say? gosh. we don't like that. over here. there you are. >> hey! >> excellent reading material. >> great reading material. >> what's the name of that book? >> "jack kennedy: elusive hero." >> let me ask you about your views. crying in politics. ed muskie totally denied it back in my age, '76, he didn't cry with the tear, it was something, it was the snow on his eyes or whatever. do you think tears hurt a politician or gives them a human side? >> i think it gives them a human

side, but i don't think newt gingrich has much of a human side. i think he's tired. >> you think he's tired. most of the people here are cynical. they have no hearts. they think newt gingrich doesn't either. that's "hardball" for now. coming up, "your business." oh, there's still a few more days of chevy's giving more. got to stay loose. how do you do it? i have my little helpers. boop. oh. [ chuckles ] [ male announcer ] hurry in to chevy's giving more. these savings are almost over. now qualified buyers can get 0% apr for 72 months on the 2011 chevy silverado. or 0% apr financing for 60 months plus no monthly payments until spring. hurry in before they're all gone. ♪ yoo-hoo. hello. it's water from the drinking fountain at the mall. [ male announcer ] great tasting tap water can come from any faucet anywhere. the brita bottle with the filter inside. [ male announcer ] little owen wanted to play,

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