right now on msnbc shall the iowa gop horse race. it could be a dead heat. some remarkable new poll numbers show why anything, anything might happen. and mitt romney runs into a wedding party on the campaign trail. we're going to show you how he responded. and predicting the future. a look at what might happen to the economy in the new year and why what's happening in iran could affect your wallet and the films we'll be talking in 2012 or not. a look at the best of the past year and we look forward to what's on our plate in the coming year.

hi everybody. good morning. happy new year to everyone watching. welcome to "weekends with alex witt." alec has a sunday morning hof. deservedly so. a key bell weather find the race still up for grabs. a new poll shows mitt romney still on top with 24%. ron paul in a tie with 22% and rick santorum in third with 15%. newt gingrich is at 12%. rick perry at 11. michele bachmann at 7. in addition to leading the pack, romney picked up the endorsement of the quad city times in iowa. >> i don't want to do what the president said. fundamentally transform america. i don't want to turn us into something we're not. i want to bring back the principles that made ut the hope of the earth. we're still a shining city on a hill. >> later in sioux city, the former governor had an interesting encounter trying to leave this event running into a

wedding party. straight into it. romney asked if he could kiss the pride and he did so as the crowd cheered on. nice moment there. rick santorum has seen crowds and poll numbers grow following month of exhaustive campaigning across the state. in a sign that he's gearing up for the long haul, he's unveiled a new ad in new hampshire. take a look. >> who has the best chance to beat obama? rick santorum. a full spectrum conservative, he's rock solid on values issues. a favorite of the tea party for fighting corruption and taxpayer abuse. >> meanwhiles the battle to get on the virginia ballot is gaining steam. several have announced to file a joint motion with governor perry in an attempt to get their names on the ballot. in addition, the virginia foern general says he will try to loosen ballot restrictions on that matter. so with two days of campaigning left, the candidates are taking the morning off before making a final push into tuesday.

nbc's ron mott joins me live from des moines. what's happening on the ground in the next 48 hours? >> reporter: hey there, thomas. happy new year to you. one note. we saw governor romney last night. he had a kick in the step. maybe because he got to kiss the bride. not often you get to do that. very cold in des moines and across iowa. the weather could be a factor heading into tuesday for the caucuses. mitt romney is going to campaign today. newt gingrich campaigning as well today. governor rick perry and michele bachmann actually attended church services around the hawkeye state. ron paul has been reporting through the weekend, went home to texas for the holidays and then of course, jon huntsman abandoned iowa. he's putting all of his cards down in new hampshire. he'll be campaigning in new hampshire today. the big push is to get at the undecided voters. the new poll from the des moines register shows an exciting race. rick santorum is that horse, if we can call him that, showing

the most speed heading toward the finish line. it puts him in second place at 21%. even taking over ron paul. it's going to be an exciting race to the finish here. he has a lot of support. we talked to a supporter last night at the hotel what is a fervent rick san forum sforer. he put in the most work on the ground visiting all 99 counties. it shows you that good old-fashioned footwork in politics will merit results. santorum is the hot, hot race at this point. the hot horse in this race at this point i should sayment going forward into tuesday, they're going to try to get at the undee seededs. 41% of the iowans polled are still undecided. it's going to be a great finish. they could decide this race ultimately, toom as. >> ron mott in des moines. thank you. one of the best surveys in the country, while hard to predict what will happen tuesday night, the next best thing is

the register's poll. it's the bellwether. we're digging deeper with rick green. vice president and editor of the des moines register. good to have you with us this morning. i want to get to it. mitt romney and ron paul are neck and neck. when you look at the four days of polling first, is ron mott mentioned to us, the final two days of polling. santorum moves past paul with 21%. how did that happen? is it just that his ground game is so good in. >> good morning, thomas. good to be with you. we saw the final numbers yesterday morning. with all due respect to the msnbc family, we called it the wolf blitzer effect. his numbers took off after that. couple things contributed. not only the poll a factor, but a lot of undecided and uncertain iowans started to coalesce around santorum. he was necknd neck for the bottom tier of the campaign.

bachmann and perry, santorum emerged there that pack and is quite well amazingly. >> rick, are you saying that one poll is pushing another poll? >> you know, i think it was the factor. i think that there's been a coalescing around santorum the past couple week. his crowds have gotten a little bit larger. there's been a recognition that he's worked hard in that ground game. he's chris kosed the county in the back seat of a pickup truck and start today get key endorsements. whenever that kcnn poll came ou, it gave him more validity. the numbers jumped thursday and friday night from where he was in the first two days. of the big question is the next two days. can he maintain that momentum? is the support going to continue to go to o him? we're trying to track that for tuesday night. >> your paper does write that santorum has a clear shot at

victory on tuesday night. part of that has to do with enthuse yam for supporters. they will caucus on tuesday. rick, i get back to it. has santorum played the best ground game in iowa? >> i think what we've looked at is there have been two impressive ground game plans. ron paul, fervent and passionate supporters. they've been out there and laid the groundwork for a potentially successful tuesday night. governor romney also just by virtue of his experience out here, big support, you talk about the quad city times endorseme endorsement, our endorsement came in mid-december. he's got a strong ground game. santorum's troops shall though, are poised. he's got great caucus captains. he's laid the groundwork for a successful tuesday night. there seems to be momentum. what we're trying to figure out now is those who have supported bachmann and perry, are they looking at the poll numbers this morning and saying if we want our vote to count, perhaps we

give the former senator from pennsylvania a second look. that's going to be an interesting part of the campaign for the next 48 hours, thomas. >> as we point out, iowans aren't discounting the fact that they have this much time left to make a decision. with the two days to go, the poll finds that many iowans could be convinced to support another candidate. how do you explain that? >> you know, there's an undercurrent here in iowa. not only do iowans take their role incredibly seriously in determining the next president and the kib the tires and look at platforms and understand the visions, but this career in particular, there's an junt current that you have a vulnerable president in the white house. the most vulnerable since jimmy carter in 1980. the republicans we've talked to and we've talked to a lot of them in the last year, are taking their time. they look closely at herman cain, they looked at speaker gingrich. they're spending more time on santorum. they want to get it right.

they take their role seriously. but they want to make their vote matter and get it right. there's still a sense of uncertainty entering the final 48 hours of this campaign. >> rick green, sir, nice to have you on this morning. i appreciate your time. >> thanks a lot, thomas. happy new year. >> thank you, sir. you too. a new book on mitt romney that his campaign did not endorse. what it has to say about his first steps to the political arena. that's later this hour. you don't want to miss it. a developing story we're keeping our eye on this morning. iran's navy test fired a surface to aramis i will today during the straight of her moes. iran is backing away from closing the passageway. it's proposing to hold talks with u.s. powers about the nuclear program. however, at the same time being iran announced today, it's produced the nation's first nuclear fuel rod. that is a major feat. meantime, president obama this weekend signed a defense pill including sanctions against iran. nbc's alley arouzi is in iran

for us. first, let's start with the latest on the threat to close the strait and the u.s. sanctions. >> that's that's right. thomas. iran has been threatening to close the strait. the threatens seemed to have -- this isn't our intention at this point. then, state tv made a remarkable announcement this afternoon saying that during the last day of the exercises, which is tomorrow, the navy is going to plan a scenario to shut down the strait of hormuz tomorrow. this doesn't mean they'll impede the movement of ships. but they want to show they're able to shut it down tomorrow. tomorrow is an important day to see if the they can strategically place ships and aircraft carriers in a way to show the international community that indeed they can shut down the waterway.

thomas sm. >> let's talk about this pivotal announcement. iran making a nuclear fuel record. at the same time, proposing that talks resume on the nuclear program. what are the undercurrents of information about iran's intentions on this? >> well, this seems to be a carrot and stick policy that iran adopted. they want to threaten shutting down the straits of hormuz. they want to make their own nuclear fuel rods which is advancing. saying we can do this on our own, disrupt the oil supply in the world. on the other hand, they're offering a carrot saying we're willing to talk on the nuclear negotiations. people look at this as a strategy just to delay things and let iran get its own way. it's coming up to the 11th hour to get these things done. iran is trying a carrot and stick policy of its own. threatening to close the straits. but also agreeing to talk if they may come to some headway. >> ali arouzi in tehran for us.

thanks so much. back here in the states, thousands are starting without power after dangerous wind storms in colorado. one man was killed by flying debris from the powerful gust that reached 120 miles per hour. the winds reportedly toppled multiple tractor-trailers and forced the famed vail, colorado, ski resort to close for safety reasons. what will the weather be like where you are today, this first day of 2012? alex wallace has the details. good morning. >> happy new year. wind going to continue to be the story across the midwest. you can see all the areas outlined and shaded in the blue. wind advisories for our day. even high wind warnings as we work into parts of iowa. could be talking winds gusting around 55 miles per hour. if not stronger at times and carrying on into monday as well. parts of the northeast get into the wind. with the wind also comes pretty chilly number. not necessarily here for our new year's day. still a bit above average. chicago at 45 degrees.

the gulf coast heading towards new orleans. six degrees above your average now. once we head into tomorrow. we really usher this that colder air. all the way into part of the south atlanta should be in the low 50s. instead in the lower 40s and into macon, chilly come tuesday. the northeast as well quite cold. all this cold air is going to be funneling over those great lake waters. setting the stage here for lake effect snow. some of the areas that have been lacking in the snow department as of late, getting a chance to pile up the snow. erie, 12-18 inches of snow possible. syracuse could pick up a foot of snow. beginning 2012 on a bit of a wintry note. alex, thank you. some predictions for the economy in 2012, including how iran could affect your wallet. also, the top movie picks of 201 including one is a truly big disappointment. plus, what could be the big films of 2012? then we take you back to iowa where the coffee is flowing at java joe's.

we'll look at numbers that show who has the impressive numbers out there. we're coming back right after this. [ toilet flushes ] i come in peace... i come in peace.

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. good morning everybody. welcome back to msnbc. it is a new year and a new morning at java joe's in des moines. a look at what's taking place there. after ringing in 2012, many iowans are getting a much-needed cup of coffee mulling over who they're going to pick. two days before the caucuses there. steady stream of people filing in there. just to show you how fluid this race remains, the register poll found in 41% of likely

caucus-goers said they could still change their minds. joining me now, correspondent, john harwood at java joe's and anne kornblut of the washington post. anne, i want to start with you. do you believe that many people are at this late date truly up for grabs as we tick down the clock here? >> it is kind of amazing. but i do think it's believable. you know, iowans take this role very seriously of being the first to vote as it were. they've been obviously examining them all very closely the whole time as we've seen with the various ups an downs. i do think a certain number of people are reluctant to tell the pollsters who they're going to vote for and may sound more undecided than they are. iowa and new hampshire voters like to throw people for a loop and hate being second-guessed. there may be of that going on. it's not uncommon in years past, we've talked to people on their way into the caucuses on caucus

night and they've said, i'm not really sure and they've been persuaded during that interesting debate process that goes on during a caucus. i do think it is believable. it's what makes us all so fascinating. >> we heard from rick green earlier, they do take this seriously, iowans, about what it means to the national landscape of having the caucus. john, you tweeted yesterday afternoon that, while you can still conjure scenarios for someone other than romney to win the nomination. none of them -- you are saying this is romney's to lose, correct? >> happy new year, tom. yes, i do think it's rom mi's to lose. what everybody is trying to do is figure out what happens if you get something surprising on tuesday night. for example, let's say rick santorum who has the montum at the end somehow wins the caucuses. where could he take that? he doesn't have much going in other states. one of the dynamics, i think, that was hinted at by rick perry's announcement that he's

going straight to south carolina is that some of these candidates are going to try to down play new hampshire as much as possible, drain all meaning from a romney win there. he's 20 points ahead and try to make a stand later in the process, dismiss that as a home state win for romney. don't know if it can be successful. if rick perry and santorum and newt gingrich all try to do that, they could did he vied the conservative vote and mitt romney could win in south carolina. rick santorum, he hit all 99 counties in iowa, did so mid-november. yet his campaign is peaking right now. is this the way they planned it all along, to be peaking at a time that's so crucial down to the last 48 hours? >> i think that's the way each of these campaigns has hoped to play it. every time we've seen a different person in the cat bird seat, they've all hoped it's the last time the music will stop at that moment. it may be happening for him.

i think by default simply because he's one of the last ones there. again, i have to agree with john. i do think that romney positioned himself -- he's the one who positioned himself consistently over time to be in this place who has weathered the ups and downs and is most likely his to lose. even if he does come in let's say, second in iowa. because of their deft expectations management, better than we would have thought a few months ago. >> that being said -- >> go ahead. >> i was just going to say that given how crazy this race is and this is going to sound like a nutty thing to say, it's not impossible with two days left before the caucuses that santorum peaked too soon. we saw it last week, momentum for ron paul. he was the leader in the race and then romney came on and he had a little charge. this is a very fast changing and unpredictable race and the reason why so many of the

caucus-goers potentially could change their minds, you have candidates who are interesting but not viable in terms of a national campaign infrastructure. they're viable but not that interesting in the case of mitt romney. that's how a lot of republicans feel. you never know how people are going to -- the ebb and flow of the emotions are going to go. i do think that given the consistency between the register's findings of a top three of romney, paul and santorum and the earlier poll that we had, the nbc maris poll, you can see clearly where the votes lie and now it's a question of execution and getting their people out and whether or not people have last minute feeling that hey, wait a minute, santorum may be a conservative. may get a flood of support from him. >> jim harwood in iowa and anne kornblut. anne, we'll see you later. i appreciate it, john jim.

now will the stock market hold up? we'd like to get this right. this is "weekends with alex witt." back after this president. [ male announcer ] new vis nature fusion cold & flu syrup. flavored with real honey. powerful cold medicine that leaves out artificial flavors and dyes and instead uses something more natural, honey. new vicks nature fusion cold & flu.

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welcome back everybody. occupy wall street protesters staging rallies in a surprise return to zuccotti park on new year's eve. 500 activists converged on plaza before the ball dropped on times square. many were removed by the nypd. others marched north to another location. no exact word yet on how many were actually arrested you know, that descent on the street raises new questions about what direction the economy is going to go for the 99% in this very new year. what stops may line -- rick newman is the chief business correspondent for u.s. news and

world report. he joins me in studio to talk about this. last time on twitter, you said people might be watching this segment nursing a hangover, bloody mary for some along the line if they are up yet. they made it clear that 2011 was pretty much a headache for most people. how is that going to be different in 2012 or different at all? >> i'm not sure it is going to be that much different. more of the same in 2012 i think. this sort of very slow recovery with nothing really strongly boosting. jobs coming back slowly. we could see a couple of shocks in 2012 and we might survive those shock. that might create a little boost toward the end of the year. >> you make predictions about 2012. one of the biggest i should say might be a surprise to people and iran. >> iran is going after nuclear weapons as we've been hearing. they're probably a few years from that. one of the lessons from north

korea is don't wait until iran gets nuclear weapons and can bully everybody. israel is particularly concerned about this. this could be a year we see a confrontation, whether a military strike or something else. if that happens, that would affect oil prices. some economists say they're $10 or $20 a barrel higher because of something that may happen in iran. lot of oil goes through the straits of hormuz off of the coast. that could be a problem. we'll have to watch that and seep how it plays out. >> you also say the stock market is going to plunge. to some observers, they say that's not much of a prediction. we've been teetering for some time and have seen major dips and major days of recovery. when you say plunge shall how drastic? >> investors are watching europe and saying look, we'll have a

tarp moment. that's the phrase on wall street and in europe as we had in the united states where lehman brothers failed. the stock mashlgts plunged and it took the u.s. government getting involved to get things sorted out. that's the scenario investors are looking for in europe with this background noise of this financial crisis there suddenly becoming prominent. it could be when there's a problem with italian debt or something like that. it could happen in the first three months of the year. if there is a near financial panic like that, that could be the thing that triggers the european central bank to get involved. we could have this stock market plunge followed by intervention, dramatic intervention by central banks and we could see a rally. >> we talk about the fact that the congress is not going to do anything to help president obama through this new year getting into the election -- >> do you think? >> that's going to be something that the american people need to consider or realize that they're going to face through this economic year. >> we're going to have a lot of noise out of congress as we have been. the good news is that we don't

really need congress to do very much, at least in the temps of the economy. we do have that payroll tax cut that my guess is that it will be extended through the end of the year. other than that, i don't think we're going to see much out of congress. we'll have a lot of talk, very little action. toward the end of the year, we do need congress to do something because of the bush tax cuts are going to expire at the end of 2012 and that's probably almost certainly not going to get resolved until after the elections in november. we'll have a lame duck congress and either a re-elected president or incoming president dealing with that. >> great to see you. happy new year. >> you too. we'll take you back to iowa for more on the latest poll to come out two days before the iowa caucuses. there we take you to java joe's where the hot coffee is pouring this morning. this is weekends with alabawith witt. back after this. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up!

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witt." i'm thomas roberts. if you're just joining us, happy new year to you. the iowa caucuses. it appears it's finally paying off. after more than 300 events, santorum is earning 11th hour momentum placing third in the latest des moines register poll. what's more, san torm support doubled in the last two days. he said he likes his chances. take a listen. >> i feel good. that's up to the people of iowa. i've always said the people of iowa are the ones i put my trust in. not just iowa. new hampshire. we have two dozen state legislators who signed on to our campaign, county attorneys, sheriffs we'll have a big jump np iowa. i don't know what it's going to be. unlike rick perry and michele bachmann and others, we're going to new hampshire. we're going to compete in every region of this country. i come from the northeast. i've been able to get the blue

collar voters. that's why we'll win the election. you can see it on meet the press when it reairs here aught 2:00 p.m. eastern on msnbc. strategy talk. republicans have dominated all the talk in iowa over the past few weeks. largely overlooked is the fact that president obama is also running there. even though he's unopposed in the democratic caucus, the obama campaign is taking iowa seriously. using it as an opportunity to get ready for the november election. on tuesday, the president will hold a web chat with supporters in iowa before heading to cleveland in the critical battleground state of ohio. i'm joined now by democratic strategist debbie dingle and republican strategies skip salzman who was strategy for mike huckabee in 2008. happy new year to you. debbie, i want to start with you. what it president obama''s defense strategy in iowa. explain to us how unusual it is to set up the war room in iowa.

>> i don't find it unusual at all if you know the obama organization. their strength in the last election was the ground operation. they take every opportunity to make sure they're engaging their volunteers. they engage people on a one-to-one basis and use every tool available. this is not a warmup for them. this is get organized. with all of the national media focused on iowa, you can't let the republican message go unchallenged. people have to be reminded of what the november choice is going to be. it's going to be about the economy. it's important in the next few days that he talk about what is really at stake. you'll see that today when they have worker that was let go when mitt romney's business bought that business. they need to remind people and are going to remind people about what this election is really about and who are they going to trust. it's really about the middle class on the economy. >> it is about the narrative and what people are listening to. could iowa, flipped between democrats and republicans in the past, in the past decade, could

it flip again? >> absolutely. if you see the trend in iowa, four years ago really iowa launched barack obama and our nominee didn't compete in iowa, which was john mccain. he won fairly handily in iowa. we got control of the legislature in iowa. there's been a lot of movement to the republican side. iowa is a perfect swing state historically. where else do you have somebody like senator hark inand grassly from the same state. it's split down the middle. i think we'll have a great opportunity to inin november. as you look at the electoral map, the 18 states that mat toer elected president, iowa is on the board. the democrats need to win it if they're going to lose ohio and that fla. that's why the president is going there. i think we got a great shot to win in november whoever the nominee is. >> he bring up ohio beyond iowa. what should be team obama's strategy for getting to 270. the electoral votes?

>> he's got -- this is going to be a very competitive race. that's what makes it so interesting for so many people. the independents are clearly his target. battleground states are throughout the midwest, states like michigan are not states you can stake for granted. many of the union workers that you think of traditionally as democratic, view themselves as independent. he has to continue to get his message across. he will be talking to people in the middle class scared about their future. >> with this reelection campaign, the apparatus in place already, how does the eventual republican nominee counter all that, especially with what we've seen leading up to iowa, this primary contest drags on for months to come. >> i think the best thing barack obama. that may be our best asset. what he hasn't done in the last four years. he hasn't delivered on the hope an change message. the economy is not fixed. it's not nonpartisan in washington. it's barack obama himself. the reelection of a president is based on the president. he has had not a great four

years. i think that's going to be the message in november. as far as the republican side, we have to focus on the 18 states. it's about jobs and about jobs in ohio. it's about florida, north carolina, virginia. those states that matter. we'll be hitting the ground hard and taking the message of jobs, jobs jobs. >> do you disagree that hope and change has come over the last three years? >> i think it's been a challenging three years. but the people are better off when the economy was about to collapse when barack obama took over the presidency. chip is absolutely right that this cam main is about nothing but jobs jobs jobs. the disparity that's occurring between the 99% in this country, do they have hope? who is going to take care of them and take care of their security? they're worried about housing prices, grocery prices and jobs. in the end, they'll trust barack obama more i think. >> who do you see as the eventual nominee? >> we're going to start finding that out tuesday night. they have we have great

candidate out there. mitt romney has been a front-runner from start to finish. they start voting tuesday. we have a lot of primary left. >> happy new year to both of you. thanks for your time. >> happy new year to you. >> happy new year. the new book on mitt romney that his campaign wanted no part of, the author says the republican candidate used polling to determine his stance on abortion in 1994ment we're going to hear more from him coming your way in a few minutes. a whole new slew of laws take effect today that you should know about. thousands of them go into standing. let's dig into this with john. john shall it's nice to have you here. >> happy 2012. >> let's talk about what the new year brings, new laws. many people cast votes in this year's election. let's start with those dealing voter i.d. ha is new for this year? the new things on the books? >> well, with voter i.d. as of now, there are 31 states that

require voters to have i.d.'s, show i.d.'s when they go to the polls. this election, 2012 will be a first since a lot of the laws go into effect and several go into effect today. it's also the first presidential election since the redistricting happened with the last census. it's going to be elections are going to be a big issue in 2012. >> immigration, of course, was a hot topic on the campaign trail this year. a number of states enacted these crackdowns, especially targeting businesses that hire illegal workers, e-verify programs. what starts today? >> sure. well, in 2011 as a whole. there were just over 1600 bills that were introduced in state legislatures from across the country relating to immigrants and refugees. as you mentioned, one of those topics was e-verified. several of the laws go into effect today. basically, they have employers check to make sure someone who is getting a job is a citizen or

legally able to work. interesting though, in california a law that goes into place takes a different approach. they prohibit the state government and local governments from following the federal e-verify program unless an employer needs to do that to get federal funds. >> when we talk about the washington post taking note on, the 2011 year, marked a sea of change when it comes to abortion rights. let's look at what happened in the country, states that passed 83 laws restricting access to abortion. nearly four times the number that was passed in 2010. so john, what does this trend indicate as we look into the future? >> well, there was a big jump since last year. while it's not a strictly partisan issue, one thing that i think is interesting, there's more republican legislatures than there are now. majority are republican now. it's the highest number since 1928.

it seems that laws are playing a little bit of catchup when it comes to the changing behaviors of our society. a lot of new laws. i think parents will like this. about texting and driving for instance, correct? >> yes. distracted driving was a big issue in 201. there are 35 states and the district of columbia that ban texting now. there's nine states and there's a law in nevada that goes into effect starting today that ban outright all hand-held devices. last month in early december, the national transportation safety board put out a recommendation that all kinds of cell phones should be banned. it's an issue that i think will continue to 202. there are important laws and weird ones. what's the weirdest one in your estimation that is in play now. >> well, i wouldn't say weirdest. one of the more interesting ones is in california and oregon, there's a new law that goes into play starting today banning the sale, possession and trade of shark fins.

you might be asking what people do with them. in some asian cultures, it's actually a delicacy used in expensive kinds of soup. but unfortunately, what people do when they go out and get the shark fins, they take the fins off and literally put the rest of the shark back in the ocean. it's a practice that's decreased some shark species upwards of 90%. it's an interesting law. >> i apologize for saying weird. i should say unusual. john, kuhl, thank you. i appreciate it. thank you. surprises in the latest numbers. we have that for you, next.

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welcome back everybody. it got touted as the film event of 2011. in terms of earnings, the girl with the dragon tattoo is not exactly a blockbuster. despite the rave reviews it got, the dark thriller earned a little over $46 million since opening weekend. if a goth girl on a motorbike was not the queen of the box office last year, who might be

this year? here's a hint for you. four, three, two, one. >> all right. that's a good tease. pop goes the week editor. brian balthazar is here to talk about this and other movies on the ray door dar for 2012. nice to see you. happy mu year. >> thank you. start with the clip or the clip that everybody thought -- i mean, i like that a lot. hunger games. everybody thought the book was fantastic. >> everyone thought that the girl with the dragon tattoo is going to be a huge hit. >> based on the book. >> if the first ten days, it's in fourth place. tom cruise's mission impossible three. mitt number one. studios bank on sequels for a reason. it's risky to try something new. it was a successful book.

like you said, critically lauded but didn't cut the mustard. >> the action -- >> putting the franchise oi owe. >> stronger than obviously the first of this franchise. >> you know, this is putting this franchise in jeopardy. they have to rethink this. it's a lot of money. >> it's still doing okay. i still want them to make the other movies. >> you know, fourth place after ten days open is tough. fourth place. >> as we look back in 2011, not a particularly good year nor a big year for dramatic films. the one that stands out that you say that i got to see with my family while home for the holidays, the descend dants. >> it's on morph 20 top ten lists says a lot. george clooney is kind of a darling in hollywood. the perfect storm. if you'll excuse the expression. that was his prior film. a great story and great performance. i think this could be his year for oscar maybe at least for a golden globe. i'm pretty sure he'll get a

golden globe. >> we left kind of numb out of this. it took a couple of days to sink in. we talked about it on the car ride home. 2012 looking to be a huge year for which films? >> you know, the superhero thing is tested and so you know, they're going to be bringing them back in full force in 2012. if you have a craving for superheroes -- >> is this a the avengers. >> i had to write down. iron man, captain a america, the hulk, thor and black widow and samuel l. jackson's character, nick fury. they're banning together to fight nor's brother. all the people that go to comicon are dying for this film. this is a must-see for a lot of people. >> they somehow get it all together. it's the script they thought was big enough to put thor with iron man and black widow. >> the justice league is completely different, you know, brian. >> that's a whole other segment. also, other -- we have spider man returns coming back. the amazing spider man and the dark knight rises coming.

men in black 3. you can't underestimate that one. will smith has got the magic touch. he's got another film coming out. >> we'll look forward to it. it is a new year and a new quarter on wall street. this week we'll get the december jobs report from friday. experts say we'll see. 150,000 new hires. that's the estimate. now the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 8.6%. however, you can look for higher pries if you want to ship a package. ups will charge 5% more to ship anything by ground or air. if you want less conversation and a whole lot more action, head to fem memphis for the weekend. fans of elvis are holding a three-day celebration to mark the king of rock'n'roll's birthday. he would have turned 77 next sunday. speaking of memphis, graceland inspired this song 20 years ago. i was telling brian, i woke up this morning on new year's day

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. ♪ java joe's in iowa. after ringing in 2012 last night, two days before the iowa caucuses. more on the poll from the des moines rentalster coming your way at the top of the hour. mitt romney is leading the polls in iowa and leading in new hampshire. as both states get ready to cast votes, there's a new way to look at how the man of the hour got into politics in the first place. there's a book digs into just that. the candidate himself decided not to cooperate with ronald scott, the fellow mormon and distant cousin who wrote this

back book. that's according to the boston globe. joining me from boston is ronald scott, the author of this book. sir, you retraced his first steps into the political arena. you explained he had a dilemma. he belonged to a church that calls itself pro life but he wanted to run for office in massachusetts which has a widely pro choice electorate. how was he able to deal with that according to what you put into this book? >> i heard the billing at the top of the hour. the fact of the matter is he used the polling data to inform him as to where he needed to be on the choice issue if he were to run for statewide office in massachusetts. i think that was consistent with his family's position with what was -- with regard to choice even before that his mother was pro choice when she ran for the senate in michigan. the bowling data, not surprisingly, said you've got no candidate is going to win

statewide office in massachusetts unless they're pro choice. so his solution was to continue with a family tradition of being pro choice. but he personally has always been opposed to abortion. as a matter of personal choice. he ran on that kind of bifurcated approach to that issue. >> as politics runs in the family shall his father was a governor himself. explain, though, is poll-based calculation something that he feels trongly about in trying to achieve political power? >> well, i think every politician does. ideally, a person is elected to office to represent people. so if you can -- if you need to represent people, you want to make sure you represent their views correctly and polling is one of the ways you get at -- get your arms around what the people want. >> you asked or you write about the fact that mitt romney asked you for media advice in the past. what type of media advice are

you alleging that he asked you about? >> not alleged. he did. before he ran for the u.s. senate in 1994, before even announced for office, he asked me what challenges he would face in massachusetts. i'm a journalist and he wanted to know what i thought approximate that. i gave him my view of what the key challenges would be. that was the limit of my involvement, except i followed that up with a ten-page memorandum of advice that i gave to him as a courtesy. >> ron, as a journalist, forgive me i say alleged because you describe this book as balanced. however the romney campaign did not agree with that and mitt romney himself didn't sit down and agree to an interview for this book itself. so did you expect mitt romney to to do this? did you think he would sit down with you? >> i was told before i did the

book, there would be cooperation from the family and mitt romney that turned out to be across purposes with the strategy. i didn't get the cooperation that i wanted to get. but i have not heard that the romney campaign denied that i gave him advice in 1993. i'm pretty sure they o not deny that. >> ronald scott, thank you you for your time this more than, sir. i appreciate it. >> hur welcome. happy to talk to you. how they plan to close the deal in the next 48 hours in iowa. why the tea party is looking splintered with two days to go. this is "weekends with alex witt." we're back after this.

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iowa's top three, yet another new poll confirms that which of these candidates has the most to gain from a hawkeye state victory. also, division within the ranks. the tea party's choice. a split decision, why can't these conservatives rally around just one candidate? and we are just two days before

the first votes of 2012. we have the latest inside word and analysis as we count down. two major developments that could heighten tensions with the west. hi everybody. good morning. welcome to weeken"weekends with wit witt". i'm thomas roberts. 11 o'clock in the east, 8:00 out west. it's two days away. voters finally weighing in on one of the widest republican races in modern history. five of six candidates competing in iowa have led at some point or another in the sixth rick santorum is getting momentum to put him in striking distance for tuesday. the new poll shows mitt romney leading ron paul, 24% to 22%. that's within the margin of error. then santorum has 15%. followed by gingrich, perry and bachmann. he's in the midst of an all-out push in iowa as he tries to close this deal.

i'm in in race not to further my career but to help america. spent my life in the business world, not in washington, but in real america. that that gives me some of the skills i will need to get america back on track. >> nbc's ron mott is live in des moines for us. ron, break down the des moines register poll for us. if this was done four days ago, if you look at the last two days, rick santorum was neck and neck with mitt romney also. >> exactly, tom. happy new year and good morning. the old saying goes, it's not how you start, it's how you finish. rick santorum is finishing strongly in iowa. the last two days of this poll, he is in second place at 21% overtaking ron paul who has a strong base of support here in iowa. a lot of folks are looking at rick santorum as we go into the last 48 hours of this race. he may be peaking at the right

time. he's clearly put his campaign here in iowa. he wants to get off to a great start in iowa because he thinks that that can carry him forward into the remaining primary states. let's look at the number. 24% for romney. 22% for ron paul. 15% thomas as you mentioned for rick santorum. then newt gingrich, rick perry and michele bachmann rounding out the field. there's 41% according to the latest poll that are still undecided. those are the voters who perhaps are ultimately going to decide how this caucus wraps and rick santorum seems to have a lot of momentum. he's getting a lot of press over the holiday weekend. he may be the one that everyone is watching come tuesday night. is he the one? he relates to the evangelicals in iowa. he's visited the counties. put in the footwork. it may be paying off. he could take it to new hampshire, south carolina and florida from there. he is the one to watch it appears at this late stage in the game. >> we'll know soon enough. nbc aes ron mott. thank you, sir. today on meet the press, rick

santorum said president obama's leadership style is dividing the country and insisted he would do better. >> this president has done more divide than any other president i've witnessed. i gives speech after speech to divide america between class and income group and racial groups much this is the great divider in chief. this is about trust. you don't build trust going up and running around the country beating up on your opponent. he's the president of everybody in this country. i would be somebody who would meet regularly and talk and try to build relationships of trustment. >> you can see the full interview of santorum on meet the press when it reairs on msnbc at 2:00 eastern. rick santorum held more than 300 events in iowa in the past six months. why is he gaining momentum now? washington pure owe chief for yahoo news joining me from java

joe's. >> david i want to start with you. explain to us what is behind santorum's move up in the polls especially this late? did people see this one coming? >> here's what it's about. rick santorum actually is the type of candidate that fit the mold of what iowa likely iowa republican caucus-goers look for. he has that social conservative piece and a lot of evangelical christians are eager to embrace him. as well as he's trying to make an electability argument. hey he was a republican elected in a blue state of pennsylvania so i can take this fight to president obama. caucus-goers want to hear that too. he's fitting the more traditional mold of what iowa republicans are looking for. you said coming late. that's because iowans tend to

decide late. 41% say they still can change their mind before tuesday. that is a very fluid situation and that's not uncommon when you look back at caucuses past. i think that's why you're seeing this coalescing around him late in the game. >> reid, if mitt romney wins iowa and most likely to win new hampshire, is south carolina the rest of the field's last chance to really stop him? >> everybody thinks that it's south carolina or florida. those are sort of the last two opportunities that either candidate has to do anything before february where there's a long dry spell before a couple of primaries, late in the month. if this game is all about momentum and all about raising money, you've got to do something in south carolina and florida. the interesting thing to watch in iowa, though, is where the evangelical voters go. in 200, 46% of them described themselves back to mike huckabee. nobody gets 24, 25% of evangelical voters.

that's excellent for mitt romney. it speaks to how much -- how solid his front-runner status is. >> i want to talk to you about negative campaigning. according to the washington post, newt gingrich has been hit by almost $3 million worth of negative ads from super p.a.c. one packing mitt romney. this is the first primary campaign where we've seen the super p.a.c.s as a real factor. obviously, it's working. it's cutting gingrich's support in half. how does this bode for the rest of the republican race and the general election? >> well, it may be the first primary campaign that we've seen with these super p.a.c.s, but certainly not the first one with impactful negative ads. this is a tried and true staple of political campaigns. i was in mason city, iowa, a couple days ago talking to a romney supporter there. she was able to cite chapter and verse what the scripts are against gingrich in the negative ads. they get played so often, you can't imagine sitting in your living room or around the kitchen table and the table is

on for a few hours, you begin to memorize the attack. the fact that all this money, 45% of the ads were negative ads against gingrich in this state. that just is something that not many people could sustain. certainly, gingrich's support has fallen by half in three weeks' time. >> you take it in by osmosis. an interesting read, 27% of iowans say this would be their first caucus. their first caucus. what do you make and a half? >> i'm not entirely certain that that's going to be accurate. everybody talks about the new voters turning out but the iowa caucuses are a tla digs al event. it will be a cold night on tuesday night. you have to be there at 7:00 p.m. on the nose. you have to sign in and be at the right place at the right time. there's no room for error. this is a very -- this is a contest that benefits those who have done it before. it looks like we're going to see a higher turnout than any other republican caucuses have had. somewhere north of 119,000

people who turned out four years ago. the newer voters don't know that they're going to essentially swing it. they're still iowa residents and steeped in this culture. >> the new byes got test run time between now and tuesday. i appreciate your time. want to remind everybody, be sure to watch msnbc on tuesday for all-day coverage of the caucuses. we'll bring you all the results and analysis of the first votes of the presidential campaign. a developing story we're watching in morning. during an exercise near the strait of hormuz iran's navy test fired a surface to air missile. iran has announced today that it has produced the nation's first nuclear fuel rod while proposing meetings on its atomic program with six powers, including the u.s. meantime, president obama this weekend signed a defense bill including sanctions against iran. for the latest now on the white house and how it's handling the

show of force by iran, shawn a thomas joins me live from hawaii where the first family is still on vacation. shawna, good morning. happy new year. i know you're fresh into 2012 now. tell us about the president signing the defense bill and his issues with the iran sanctions. >> well, as you said, thomas, the president signed a $662 billion defense spending bill yesterday. he had meager reservationsment one are the sanctions against iran. the sanks are really against foreign financial institutions and central banks that do business with iran. the administration has a twofold problem with this. one, they're worried that they set up a sort of us versus them scenario where you either do business with america or you do business with iran. they're worried foreign governments will resent this and not want to work with us when it comes to iran. they're worried about oil prices. they're worried they'll spike and this could put more money in the pockets of the iranians.

they have a six-month window to come up with the best possible sanks and the president has an option of a three-month waver if he deems it won't help our national security. >> when does the vacation wrap snup is the family traveling back together? i know they went out separately. >> yeah. wee believe that they should be traveling back all together in the next couple of days. the president will basically drop off the first family and then head to ohio for another speech this wednesday. >> shawna thomas in hawaii. thanks so much. as we continue our countdown to eye warks the caucuses, we'll see what could be the biggest benefit from the first votes of the campaign. plus, they have a conservative cause. why can't they decide on a conservative candidate? we're going to take a look at the i am pmplications of an undd tea party. the head of the gop p.a.c. in iowa. another crucial state where mitt romney needs a lot of help. will a heaping helping of

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beauty shot there. des moines iowa, the capital of the thriving city that ranks second on forbes magazines list of the best places for business and careers and the top city for young professionals. there you have it. mi mitt romney spent $10 million in 2008. he doesn't plan to be disappointed this time around. andrea sole is spokeswoman for the romney campaign and she joins me now. nice to have you on with me this morning. as we've been having people on this morning, you're in an

active place. i want to get the poll. it shows you're on top. candidates clamor to find out the des moines register polls each cycle. it's not the same thing as waiting on caucus night to find out. 24%, leader of the pack. that has to give you some encouragement and the stamina need today pull through to the very end. >> we felt good about where we are. i think we're going to leave here better than we came in. we're seeing tons of big crowds for governor romney. we had a thousand people in mesa city. hundreds and hundreds of people spilling out of restaurants and coffee shops that want to see him and how he's doing. you can never tell who is going to show up to the caucuses. so i don't know what place we'll finish, but i do know that we're going to be prepared to go the distance. i'm confident that we'll get the nomination at the end of the day. >> this appears to be truly your race to lose there in iowa. if that is the case, if ron paul or rick santorum pulls ahead, what does that do to the

momentum of the romney campaign? again, i think that we've got strong momentum regardless of what place we finish. governor romney has been talking to voters about his message of jobs and the economy. voters realize that he's the one candidate that can not only beat president obama but can turn this economy around once he is elected. we saw that today. we got the endorsement of the quad city times this morning here in iowa. we have the endorsement of the des moines register and little by little, more conservatives are coming on board to support us. governor christie was out here this week campaigning for governor romney. we have a lot of strong support and we're going to be ready to go on to new hampshire and south carolina and florida. we've built an organization for the long haul. we're really confident that we'll get the delegates need today win the nomination. >> we know the romney campaign is solid. what is the strategy in south carolina. in '04 governor romney placed

fourth in south carolina. what's the strike that skri kra south? >> we're going to keep talking about the issues that matter most to voters. jobs and the economy. as i was talking about endorsements, south carolina governor nicki hailey, a strong conservative, endorsed governor romney. we'll be campaigning with her more in south carolina and going around the state and talking about the things that matter most to voters. i think ha we've seen recently is that voters understand it's important to get this president out of office. president obama has been a failure. he's failed to create jobs. he's made this recession worse. it's time to have someone in the white house that actually knows how dho a turn around. he has the experience in the real world economy and governor romney is the one candidate with real world business experience. that's what this country needs right now. >> right now you're talking about president obama and why romney would be better. however shall most of the ads that are running in iowa right now are anti-gingrich ads. a lot of them coming from romney

supporters. how do you feel about being the huge beneficiary of the negative ad campaigns going on? >> look, our campaign is running positive ads about governor romney and getting his mess message out. governor romney is a big boy. he understands thises politics and they'll draw differences between each other and show the contrast of why they think they'd be the best nominee for the party. this is part of the process. we're prepared for it. we're taking it in stride and we're going to connue talking about his message and again, our ads are positive. up on the air talking about why governor romney is the best candidate to turn this economy around and get americans working again. >> where do you stand and the question that keeps being put against governor romney is releasing his tax records. do you think that's something that he's eventually going to do? >> it's something we'll look at at the next tax filing season.

as he said before, he doesn't have plans to do that now. but never say never. we'll look at that come april or come the next time that taxes are filed. >> andrea, with the romney campaign. nice to see you there. thanks again. >> happy new year. >> you too. of course, with the new year comes resolutions. the most popular resolution losing weight. gym memberships, they increase about 30% this time of year. and a study finds that people in savannah, georgia spend the most on gym memberships. roughly $1700 a year. how long will folks keep going to a gym? a government survey found that 75% of americans keep resolutions for a week. 60% for a month. 46% will hang in there for six months. how long are you going to make it last? [ sniffs ] i have a cold. [ sniffs ] i took dayquil

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so the candidates and their supporters have spent over $16 million in iowa. that's so far a huge chunk of change from super p.a.c.s. here's the breakdown. rick perry has spent the most of any candidate. well over $4 million. combined with super p.a.c. money, he's close to $6 million. mitt romney and two pro romney super p.a.c.s $4.5 million. ron paul, 2.million. newt gingrich and his supporters over $1.5 million. one note to pass along. the man currently running third, rick santorum has spent less than $30,000 on his entire campaign. nbc news political reporter joins me now to talk about this. are you surprised that rick santorum is doing so well, do so well without spending anything near the likes of what the other candidates have invested?

>> well, you know, thomas, this isn't florida. it's not all tv ads. this is a state that really likes candidates to get out there, get to the counties, get to know people and rick santorum has outworked every candidate here. he's visited in all 99 counties. he didn't just start doing that a week and a half ago like michele bachmann. he's been doing it for five months. that's a big reason you see his surge. the other part of this is don't dismiss some of the super p.a.c. spending for santorum. there's a super p.a.c. called red, white and blue fund that spent half a million dollars for him. also the endorsement of bob vander plat. he cut an ad for him. they're spending $85,000 with the family leader. you know, he's on air with a little help from his friends and he's done a lot of the work much that's a big reason why you see rick santorum making a move. >> when we talk about money, does newt gingrich have the money to make it beyond and out of iowa? >> i think it's going to be

difficult for him because you started to see newt gingrich slip away in the last few days. when i have been out on the trail and talking to voters who said, look it came down to three people for them, a couple said gingrich, romney, santorum and maybe perry. after hearing perry speak, two people, one couple said gingrich is off my list. you're starting to see the perry move a little bit. you see san form moving more. i think gingrich and bachmann fading. >> when we look at this super p.a.c.'s and their super involvement, we look at iowa half of the top eight spenders are super p.a.c.s. how does this bode for the rest of the race. the general campaign? >> boy, i really tell you, i think super p.a.c.s have been the biggest story so far. what i think happened with restoring -- the romney super p.a.c., they saw newt gingrich rising. what was going to happen is they saw newt gingrich come out of iowa and have an impact

potentially with fundraising later on, the restore our future p.a.c. decided to take out gingrich. i don't think it had as much to do with romney winning here as eliminating somebody who would have a chance later on. the super p.a.c.'s what they've been able to do is the do the dirty work without the candidates. >> thank you, sir. good to see you this morning. happy new year. >> hey, thanks. same to you, thomas. >> thank you. 2012 is here and arrived with flair and sell brags. mayor bloomberg and lady gaga were joined by a million revelers to see the ball drop. it was a blast in sidney australia as there was a spectacular fireworks display over the iconic harbor bridge. back to the u.s. key west, florida. take a peek, welcomed the new year with a twist. thousands showed up for the drag queen drop. a female impersonator named sushi suspended in a ruin i red

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hit me! [ female announcer ] live the regular life. phillips'. welcome back everybody. new poll numbers show how splintered the tea party is with two days before the iowa caucuses. nearly a fewer-way tie between rick santorum, romney and newt gingrich. amy cremor is the chair of the tea party ex tres. she joins me in des moines. this is the hot seat. we're rotating you guys in and out. i appreciate your time in joining me amy. in the last couple of years, the tea party has been tireless in promoting itself as a grassroots movement that's basically fed up with the politic as usual in washington, d.c. and the party coe hosted one of the major gop debates this fall, the purpose of which to pick a candidate for the tea part. why isn't there a truly

solidified tea party candidate yet? >> well, you know, honestly, we're -- i would have thought that there would have been a candidate that everyone would have coalesced around the fact is, we've all seen it, it's volatile. there have been the ebbs and flows. people have gone up and fallen in the polls. no one has coalesced around anyone yet. we're just sitting back and waiting and seeing what happens. >> so there doesn't seem to be a tea party litmus test in terms of establishing which candidate embodies the values of the movement. are you concerned that this inability to brand a candidate makes you look less unified nationally? >> no, i don't think so. i mean, at the end of the day, i think the tea party movement is focused on the fiscal issues, what brought us together to begin with. like right now we're in iowa. there's a lot of focus on the social issues.

that's not what the tea party is focused on. i think that eventually, we will come together. i think that we will all work to defeat president obama and make him a one-term president. right now, everybody is out working for their candidate who they think is the most conservative or the candidate that they want and it's going to be a bumpy ride. it's going to be a roller coaster. it's not going to be easy. i don't think it's a sign of weakness in the tea party movement whatsoever. i think actually the tea party movement is growing. >> wouldn't it seem though as a natural fit, a natural pick, michele bachmann would be the person that the tea party express would endorse? i know you made a comment recently about the tea party support of her saying it was not a full fledged endorsement. explain to us, because michele bachmann launched the tea party caucus in the house. yet, she's getting this lukewarm response. why not come out and endorse her and in not doing so, isn't is the silence basically deafening that you don't think she's a

credible candidate? >> well, i don't think it has anything to do with her not being a credible candidate. i mean, michele bachmann has been a loud voice on the frontlines essentially from the beginning of the movement. but tea party express, we want to support, we want the movement to coalesce around a candidate and support the candidate that the movement is behind. and right now everybody is all over the place. but it's not because michele bachmann is not a viable candidate. it's just that the movement hasn't coalesced around anyone. i think she's done a fantastic job. she's stayed in it this long. i don't think she's getting out the my point was let the voters decide. when you have leaders coming out that are focused on the social issues and calling for candidates to get out of the race, that's not right. let the voters decide. we're all focused on the economy. the fiscal issues. that's ha matters. >> if it's a true movement, how can it be a movement without a unified purpose and a unified

candidate? >> well, we do have a purpose. our purpose is to restore fiscal responsibility and sanity to washington, d.c. and we just haven't gotten around the one candidate yet that we think is going to do that. like i said, it's going to be a bumpy ride. but it's not at all a sign of weakness or the tea party movement fizzling away for anything. it's just that people are focused on the issues important to them. at the end of the day, everybody is going to cast their ballot on one or two issues they think is most important. i think it's going to be the economy. it's not going to be the social issues. that's my take on it. >> amy, nice to have you on this morning. thanks for you're time. >> thanks for having me. >> absolutely. developing now, a possible show of force by iran. iran's navy test fired a surface to air missile today during an exercise during the strait of her muz raising the possibility of a confrontation with the u.s.

at the same time, iran announced it produced the nation's first nuclear fuel rod. that's a major feat. my next guest, michael adler, contributor for the daily beast and scholar at the woodrow wilson center. good to have you on. everybody watching at home, waking up and hearing about this is going to be wondering how real is this possibility of the u.s. attacking iran, especially with word, especially with them touting the fact that they have now produced the first nuclear fuel rod? >> well, i don't think this is any -- i don't think there will be imminent hostilities, the iranian he canner siess in the strait of hormuz are -- that there's a threat. iran has no interest in doing that. for one thing, they ship their oil through the strait of hormuz. it would be an economic suicide

to do that. secondly, the united states is ratcheting up sanctions and looking towards a possible embargo on iranian fuel purchases by europe and trying to get countries like india, japan to purchase less oil. but there's no question, the united states is not trying to stop iran from selling the oil. the purpose is for prices to go down for iranian oil and for iranian revenue to be cut. i don't think with the dramatic images we're seeing with missiles being shot off, that there's any question of any kind of military activity at the current time. what we're looking towards however is an escalation of the diplomatic confrontation where the united states is trying to up sanctions. the united states is under pressure from the congress and israel to have a much tougher line against iran. at the same time, you mentioned the nuclear fuel rod. i don't think that is what's significant. what's significant is the enrichment which iran is doing. >> let's talk about that.

as you're saying, this is more about diplomacy. when they have produced the first nuclear fuel rod, what type of message are they sending, not only to the u.s., to the rest of the world. the significance? >> the iranians have been progressing the program since 2003. the fuel rod being tested, it's a sample fuel rod. it has natural uranium in it, not enriched uranium. it's for the power reactors. the united states advocates civilian nuclear energy in iran. what the united states is against, the development of technology that can help produce a nuclear weapon. iran has increased enrichment to 20% for a research reactor in tehran. that's not the fuel rod they're producing so far. the fact that iran is making progress in nuclear technology is not that surprising. it's really not that dangerous. what it does show is that they have increasing technological capabilities. >> michael adler, appreciate your time.

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it's time for the first big three panel of the new year. three topic, three talkers. today, we're looking at poll a palooza. results of the new poll. obama 2.0 campaign says it's ready. new years resolutions. advice from the experts. i'm joined by former governor ted strickland, anne kornblut and robert trainham for the comcast network. this new poll showing mitt romney, ron paul basically neb and neck with rick santorum at third. in the final two days of polling, rick santorum moves past paul with 21% n your estimation does santorum this a

legitimate shot of winning iowa? >> i think he does. this shows the republican base is dissatisfied with all the candidates. mitt romney appears to be the leader. but giving a fairly small percentage of the vote, it's scattered among all the candidates. none of the republican candidates have yet to solidify their support among the republican base. that's because they're all deeply flawed and no candidate has emerged that i think has the capacity to take on president obama and win. >> robert, how does this change the dynamic in the republican race if your former boss, rick santorum wins in iowa? >> it could change things for others. there's no question about it. i remind you, thomas, mike huckabee won the iowa caucuses in 2008 and he did not become the republican nominee. it's too early to tell. if i could take issue when what the governor said, rewind a few years ago when the republican

party was -- hillary clinton, barack obama, john edwards and so forth going back and forth for the drok nomination and and barack obama became the nominee. this is what no, ma'am nags are all about. it's a battle for the heart and soul of the party moving forward. this is no different from what the democrats were experiencing four years ago. >> anne, we talk about this analysis, there's an interesting nugget from the iowa poll saying that 27% of tuesday's caucus-goers, it would be their first time. what does that tell you? >> that's a huge number and i will find out on tuesday night whether or not that's accurate. if that's the case -- more unpredictable than it looks for now. people who are new, there's all the procedural issues of actually getting to the caucus, getting there on time, being a part of the debate process. everything that goes in that, not to mention the weather. you know, newcomers may not be as firmly fixed this their opinions as they say. there's some evidence there are people who support ron paul.

so i just think it adds to a lot of the unknowns that we are seeing in this race. >> governor, as we switch to the left side, home state of ohio stopping in cleveland on wednesday, he won that state in '08. is he a sure thing again this year? >> well, not a sure thing. but i think elwin ohio. i think he'll win ohio. i believe his moan ent will be mitt romney. mitt romney voted against or spoke against the salvation of the american auto industry. and the president is coming to cleveland, where ford is adding hundreds and hundreds of new jobs. he'll go to toledo where chrysler is investing millions of dollars into new technologies. he'll go to youngstown where the chevy cruze is being built three shifts a day. and this would not have happened if mitt romney had prevailed in his thinking. so the president is in pretty good shape in ohio, i believe.

ohio is showing some signs of recovery. i think that's based in part upon the president's policies. it will be a hard fought campaign, but i think in the end, president obama will once again carry the ultimate swing state, which is ohio. >> robert, as we talk about the fact that obama's campaign has an enormous reelection arm already in motion, do you think that the republican, whatever the nominee or whoever the nominee is going to be, really comes in at such a disadvantagement because they've lost time through the pry mayor sni. >> financially, yes. there's no question about it. it's very, very difficult to beat an incumbent president. going back through history, when you look at 1992, bill clinton did it. ronald reagan did it. it's tough to do, but it can be done. during every lexie mentioned, 1980 or 1992, it was about the economy. what the governor said a few moments ago is important. ohio is a huge manufacturing state.

republicans, mathematically need to win ohio to win the white house. the question becomes whether or not that independent voter out there and that reagan democrat feels comfortable with four more years under barack obama. the resolutions that you'd like to see from the candidates, i'm going to ask you about that. all of you on the other side of the break. we're going to start with ladies first. we're back after thisment and instead uses something more natural, honey. . ♪

so we continue with our big three guest, and our number three political topic. ann, what do you recommend? >> i would like to ask that they all resolve to stop referring to themselves in the third person. >> robert what you say? >> all of the politicians to stop the partisan bickering. the american people deserve it and want it. >> could you ask for something more realistic. >> let's go to the governor.

what about you? >> mitt romney is a rich man and i would like him to live in the next year like many other american families must live, like on $117 per week in disposable income. that would put him in touch in what many americans have to deal with on a daily basis. >> do you think he will release his tax records? >> his father released his when he ran for president. other presidential candidates have. what does mitt romney have to hide? what does he want the american people want not to know about the personal finances. >> i want to thank all of you. >> just quickly, i will remind the audience, back in 2004, john kerry and his wife did not release theirs, especially his wife, just as fyi. >> we have that on the record. happy new year and thank you so much for joining me this morning. thank you for your time. >> thank you.

>> that will wrap up this new year's edition of "weekends with alex witt." >> before we go, we want you to have a look of all the people that put msnbc on the air. ♪ >> it's going to be a really big show. >> stand by for that. >> are we having a good day? >> so we are going to do susan dsk, and then kerry sanders, and then hunt. >> the panel with everything. ♪

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