countdown in des moines. iowa voters have a chance to look at who will get their vote. arson spree. authorities look for collies after a dozen of fires are touch f off over the weekend. and riding high. side-by-side daredevils make a death-defying jump to ring in the new year. those stories and much more straight ahead, this is "first look," on msnbc.

we begin this morning with the final push. republican presidential candidates have one more day to court iowa's first in the nation voters. mitt romney is ahead in the latest tolls. but a late surge by rick santorum and others means this could be anyone's race. >> reporter: rick santorum, in far northwest iowa. his campaign across this state is finally paying off. santorum could win tuesday night. >> i said this is an episode of "survivor" and you're just going to survive. and if you keep surviving, you never know what's going to happen. we kept surviving. >> reporter: the new poll puts santorum third. but if you count gop voters surveyed on the last two days of the four-day poll, santorum is tying with mitt romney at the top. and the surge could win him the endorsement of conservative leader, steve king.

>> i'm closest with rick santorum of those three. >> reporter: mitt romney kept to his game plan, sounding like the nominee. >> president obama and i offer stark contrast. >> reporter: ron paul, with a shot of winning iowa, ruled out a third party bid for now. >> i'm now essentially tied for first place. why would i consider doing anything like that? >> newt gingrich, fourth at 12%, looked for a bright spot. >> 31% of people of "the des moines register" said they were open to changing their minlds. >> reporter: but at iowa ev evangelical churches, the buzz was about santorum. >> i'm not satisfied with the other candidates right now. >> reporter: it's what rick santorum hoped for. in los angeles, dozens of cars have been set on fire in recent days. police have released surveillance video to try to catch the culprits. authorities want to talk to a

man seen leaving a parking structure in a popular tourist area of hollywood, where one of the fires started. the fires have burned in several neighborhoods, in some cases, spreading to apartments. police posted a $60,000 reward. the manhunt continues this morning for a killer of a park ranger. margaret anderson was gunned down after trying to stop a driver that ran through a checkpoint in the park. authorities are looking for an iraq war vet, believed to have survivalist skills. he's also a suspect in a shooting four years earlier near seattle. for folks in arkansas, 2012 began with the same mystery that kicked off 2011. for the second-straight year, a flock of dead birds has fallen from the sky.

animal control officers picked up dozens of dead fowl for testing. last year, the officials blamed fireworks for the death. at one hotel, guests were locked out of their rooms, after a key card system crashed after midnight. there were reports of scuffles and guests becoming ill. the system was up and running again after 3:00 a.m. over 1,000 new yorkers marked the first day of 2012, at the polar plunge. the unseasonably warm 50-degree weather rose the water up to 45 degrees. and finally, philadelphia's broad street was filled with a colorful brigade on sunday. the mummers proceed brought out spectators where elaborate costumes compete for prizes.

now, we turn to bill karins for the weather forecast. did you see the video from new york. >> it wasn't a polar bear plunge. it was 50 degrees. and the water temperature was 50. that's the polar bear plunge i could have done. i wouldn't do it. hope you rang in a wonderful new year's eve and new year's day this weekend. the well-advertised surge of cold air has arrived for our friends in the northern plains. a lot of lake-effect snow is arrivaling from lake superior, michigan and ontario. and the cold is there in the season by far will be arriving in new england, as we go through the next two to three days. the heart of the cold air is up in central canada, at minus 45. a taste of what's coming our way. it won't be that extreme. but it will be cold. 3 in minneapolis. we have negative numbers in

north dakota and minnesota. it's starting to feel chillier for cities in the east, after an unusually warm weekend. windchills in the low 30s. same for you in atlanta. and snow is flying off of about every lake. we have streams of lake-effect snow. many areas of indiana will have a coating on the ground. especially northern indiana, where we see two to four inches. chicago has been reporting light snow throughout the night. you probably have a little dusting there. and up towards grand rapid, michigan, some of the heavier snow. by the time we get to wednesday night, the heaviest of the snow will fall off lake erie. to cleveland the favorite snowbelt areas will probably pick up two feet of this. off of lake ontario, that area north of syracuse, someone's going to get about three feet of snow. it's about time.

those areas typically get the stuff in november and december. the forecast, there's a lot of people that don't have to go to work or school today. we don't have to worry about cancellations in the great lakes areas. this is more typical of the middle of the winter. the northern plains is the brutal stuff. that's where the lowest windchill values will be found. we're still in the 40s. tomorrow, as the heart of the cold air shifts your way, temperatures won't get out of the 20s. it will be, by far, the coldest day of the winter in new england. and we'll see snowshowers in many areas. veronica, well-advertised cold air is on its way. it will be gone by the end of the week. >> 28 degrees. are you sure that's right? >> it will be a shock to the system because it's been so warm. >> 15-degree drop. yikes. thanks, bill. investors look ahead at how

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welcome back to "first look." and here are some of the top stories making news this morning. iran claims it's created its first nuclear fuel rod and placed it in a research reactor. despite u.s. efforts to stop iran's development of a nuclear weapon. also, the navy tested an advanced surface-to-aramir miss in the strait of hormuz. in the philippines, one boy was injured by firecrackers welcoming in the new year. two flights had to be diverted because of smoke in the air.

in delaware, the new year meant the start of legalized same-sex civil unions. a pair of lawyers became the first couple to take advantage. delaware senator, chris koonce, led the sermon. prince philip led the royal church sur chas. and levi lavallee broke his own record for a snowmobile jump. doing so as another athlete made the jump side-by-side on a motorcycle. the turning of the calendar means new laws are now in effect. in maine, it became illegal to smoke in public housing. a change that affects some 12,000 tenants. >> reporter: new laws in effect require some voters in this year's election to show photo

i.d.s before getting a ballot. kansas, texas and tennessee, are the new ones. and new hampshire and rhode island will ask for them. but will allow if other identification is provided. republicans strongly support the growing push for photo i.d.s. >> we want to make sure that once you're properly registered, when you show up to vote, you are voting one time. and you're voting for yourself and not for somebody else. >> reporter: because some minority, poor and elderly voters don't have photo i.d.s, the opponents say the laws are supposed to suppress turnout among democrats. tanning beds are off-limits to anyone under 18 in california. the first state to bar minors from using them. sponsors say skin cancer has become an epidemic among young women. truck and bus drivers face stiff fines if they're use cell phones

behind the wheel. truck drivers are three-times more likely to get in a crash while reaching for a phone. in illinois, a new law requires all passengers in a car, not just the driver, to wear a seat belt. violators can get a $60 ticket. more than 60 million americans who get social security are in for a cost of living increase. for the average recipient, it will mean $450 more this year. san francisco becomes the first city to raise the minimum wage above $10. it goes to $10.24 an hour. $3 higher than the federal minimum. and illinois residents can no longer throw their electronics into the trash. for discarded computers, tvs and other devices. out with the old means recycling. pete williams, nbc news, washington. u.s. markets are closed for the new year holiday. here's a first look at how they ended 2011.

the dow closed at 12,213 after closing 69 points. the nasdaq was down five. the s&p lost eight. in hong kong, the hang seng was up 36. the new year marks a new quarter on wall street. and some are predicting it's going to be a bumpy ride. speaking on tv over the weekend, french president, nicolas sarko sarkozy, says the greatest crisis europe has faced is not over. also underscoring the long road ahead, german chancellor angela merkel says that next year will be as difficult as 2011. the dow rose 5%, as cautious investors sought out blue chip stocks. the nasdaq lost 1.8% for the year. looking ahead, the government's big december jobs report friday. more than 100,000 new jobs have

been added in each of the past 5 months. and this time, experts are predicting 150,000 new hires. and the latest auto sales figures are expected to be up in december. minutes from the fed's latest meeting will be released tuesday. investors will look for assurance that the u.s. economy is on the mend. an arbitration banal has awarded exxon mobil composition for the venezuela assets. the award is less than 10% of what exxon was seeking. it used to be all you needed was a dollar and a dream. now, even that is about to go up. tickets for the multistate powerball are doubling in price, to $2, to entice players with larger jackpots. in health news now, head sin to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, are in

short supply that many patients are not finding enough pills. the shortage is due to low manufacturing limits set by the drug administration, in after effort to minimize abuse. you can always head to the web. check out the health page online at msnbc.com pp. the jets' season comes to the end. when the giants head to the playoffs. a texans linebacker makes a helmet-to-helmet hit without a helmet. your first look at sports is straight ahead.

welcome back to "first look." in sports last night, its was all or nothing for the new york giants, as they claim the nfl's last playoff spot. >> good morning. win and you're in. simple enough. and the new york giants made it look easy. the g-men came to play against the cowboys. eli manning hits nelson cruz. and cruz does the rest. outrunning the defense and going 74 yards to the house. giants up 7-0. and never looked back. they beat dallas, 31-14. they play atlanta next sunday. that's because the falcons made the buccaneers walk the plank. atlanta was up 42-0, in the second quarter. yep. 42-0. that's a new franchise record for points in the first half. falcons won. the packers set a record against the lions with aaron rodgers resting for the playoffs.

matt flynn threw for a team best 482 yards and 6 touchdowns. packers won 45-41. the lions will post the saints in the nfc wild card game. the broncos needing help from the chargers to make the playoffs. san diego beat oakland, 38-26. richard goodman returns a kickoff 100 yards in the second quart. even though the broncos lost yesterday, they'll host the steelers in the afc wild card game. jets lost three-straight and will be watching the playoffs from home. mark sanchez, tossing three interceptions against the dolphins. and finally, the most important piece of football equipment has to be the helmet, right? the texans brian brayman may disagree. check out number 50. that's braman without his helmet. doesn't stop him. makes the tackle. his head hits the helmet as he

drops him out of bounds. some were saying that mark was never okay to begin with. that's your first look at sports. now, for another look at the weather, here's bill karins. it was nice outside for the new year. >> for now. >> now, you're saying it's going to be 20 degrees out there. >> it's going to change quickly. we've been so spoiled in areas of the eastern half of the country this winter. this is really the first cold shot. it's going to feel so cold because it's been so warm. our bodies aren't used to this. we've seen snow off of lake erie, also off of ontario. that's where it's going to be a difficult commute. everywhere else, should be okay today. maybe just snow flurries at first. it's going to be a windy day. usually when you get extreme temperature drops, it's called the winds of change.

occasionally there will be strong wind gusts. and the windchills right now, pittsburgh and buffalo are in the 20s. the windchills are starting to drop in the bigger cities. expect a cooler day today than yesterday. temperatures will be in the 40s to start the day. as we go through the afternoon and the evening, the temperatures will begin to drop off. it will be significantly colder on tuesday and wednesday. probably about 20 degrees colder in some cases. minneapolis, iowa, and it should be sunny and dry. there won't be big snow or ice storms around. chicago, cold and chilly for you today. and watch the temperatures in the east. they really take a nose dive, with highs not going above freezing for the first time this winter. for the voting in iowa, no problems at all. be a little windy and chilly. but it won't be snowy and icy. >> good news for them. steven spielberg's "war

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welcome back to "first look." time, now, for entertainment news. tom cruise's new mission remained impossible to beat at the box office. "mission impossible" took in $31.3 million to earn the second-straight spot over the

weekend. "sherlock holmes" was second. and alvin and the chipmunks was third. and steven spielberg who caught hollywood's attention over the weekend, as "war horse" finishes with almost $17 million. and "the girl with the draggen tattoo" continues to underperform. that came in sixth place. in other entertainment news sources, the 14-month failed marriage of katy perry and brusle brand was plagued by bickering. russell is more of a home body while katy liked to party. >> is anybody really shocked? it's sad. >> we all hope love will last forever. >> of course.

i don't think we're shocked. stay tuned. "way too early" starts right now. have a terrific monday. good morning. and welcome to java joe's in des moines, iowa, the center for the next few days of the political universe. mitt romney looks like the front-runner. but he has a pack of contenders nipping at his heels this morning. i'm willie geist. this is a special edition of "way too early" at the iowa caucuses. it's time to shake off the hangover and get serious about this presidential campaign. i'm glad you, along with brave souls are up this morning. shoot me an