welcome back inside java joes, a shockingly large crowd has gathered here. just before 5:00 in the morning, we asked you the a the top of the show what you're doing up at this hour, our producer john tower in new york has a quick answer. what you got? >> we've got a twitter. queens of media writes five minutes into watching "way too early" and i have to give up my new year's resolution to quit drinking. >> yes, we're happy to help you through that. i sense, although none of them would admit it that there might be a little bit of irish coffee perchance. yeah, i think there's a little stinger in some of this coffee. "morning joe" starts right now. the media works like the

jurassic park dinosaurs, follows movement. and when it sees movement, rick santorum stomps over there and tries to eat santorum. he's going to be the happiest guy on tuesday night. wednesday, he's got to stand without falling to roll this out nationally. >> oh, and so it begins, good morning, everyone, welcome to java joes. >> oh, my gosh. look at java joes. >> java joes. >> can you believe this? can you believe this? >> great crowd, by the way. >> and by the way, they're all republicans. it's -- >> no. >> this -- we've returned to the scene of the crime. >> we have. >> this is where it all began. >> yes. >> it's so exciting to be back here. >> it actually is. welcome, everybody, to "morning joe." msnbc contributor mike barnicle with us. msnbc and time magazine -- mark haleprin is with us.

and where's willie? what happened? >> i don't know. >> that was fun doing his show. we should do that every day. >> why? >> that show. that little show he does. >> willie has a show? >> yes, he does. >> you don't remember. >> that was before christmas. no, but for people who are new to the show over the past two or three years. this have where it all began. >> this is it. >> and we talk about the moment the show took off was the moment we were in java joes. first of all, i've got to say, phil wasn't going to bring us here. he wouldn't let us come four years ago. and so we said, phil, we're going, and you can bring the cameras if you want. and he brought the cameras and had us on for 18 hours a day. but we came here and mike barnicle, the moment that things really took off was when your buddy -- picture behind you on the wall there, tim russert left the civic center where they wouldn't let us go and came

through the front door and goes, hey, you mind if i come in and hang out? of course, tim's a god and they're like come in, come in, and made all the difference. hep launched the show. >> there's no surprise to that. tim was there at the launch of a lot of things, and everyone knows everything starts in iowa. >> it does. >> everything starts in iowa. >> including us. >> exactly. exactly. >> we've got big news to report this morning. some polls showing really -- >> well, there he is. >> i was hanging out with my public -- >> the good people of iowa. >> it's become more than a little show, mika. i had mark haleprin on this morning. >> are you kidding? >> it's happening now. >> four years from now you're going to say this is where it all began. >> exactly. >> birthplace of greatness, java joes. >> did you have a great holiday? >> great holiday. spent new year's eve in memphis watching my commodores lose,

30,000 showed up. >> they did not make the point spread. they killed a lot of people. >> how about the new york giants last night? >> huge win. we'll show some highlights of that. >> a disappointing loss for the jets. that's a shame. >> it's good to see you, willie. the iowa caucuses are just a day away and a three-way fight between mitt romney, ron paul, and rick santorum. according to the latest "des moines register" poll, romney leads the pack, an eight-point jump. ron paul is two points behind romney within the margin of error, and rick santorum who has remained in the low single digits for most of the campaign season is now at 15%, beating out gingrich, perry, and bachmann in the hawkeye state. santorum up nine points since the end of november while gingrich lost 13 in the same time period. the four-day poll results,

however, do not reflect how quickly momentum is shifting in the gop field. the "des moines register" notes the order reshuffles and santorum beats out ron paul for second place. that reflects a volatile sense on the ground where over 40% of republican caucus goers say they could still be persuaded to change their mind. but when asked which candidate is most electable, romney's lead jumps to an overwhelming 48%. that is interesting. that reflects a little -- >> it does. there are a lot of things to break down right now. but first of all, let's go big picture, mark haleprin. obviously rick santorum is surging in a big way at the right time. here's a guy that languished in single digits for over a year. what's going on? >> he's the momentum candidate right now. and in iowa, you've got to organize, organize, organize,

get hot at the end, he's the only person who did both of those things. romney organized quietly, but he's also hot at the end. big crowds, good message and that electability point is huge for a lot of caucus goers. as the chairman of the state party has been saying, this is the first chance republicans have to vote to replace barack obama. a lot of those people are going to be concerned about electability above all else and romney is the king of perception on electability. >> mike barnicle, a lot of people are thinking and we've been saying all along if romney wins iowa, it's over. i've got to say just sensing over the past 24 hours, the response from conservatives who are now expecting romney to win iowa, that's not going to be the case. if romney ends up with his 23% or 24%, winning iowa, you're going to have a rebellion among conservatives who are already starting to say hold on, you're giving us john mccain again four

years later. i actually think a romney win ignites the base and causes a lot of problems moving forward. >> except i'm inclined to agree with you partially. but look at it as the first half of a double-header. if he wins in iowa, he's going to roll in new hampshire. >> he is. >> he's going to have back to back wins. he also has the win factor going for him. the best commercial of all of the candidates in the sea of negativity, he at least has one semi-positive commercial. i happened to see it a couple of times yesterday. what happens after new hampshire? well, that's jump ball when it comes to conservatives fearing his nomination. i don't know what happens. >> willie, and by the way, one of the things that's driving conservatives crazy right now about mitt romney, did you see what his closing argument is? europe's in flames, china's catching up, we're in a hot war in afghanistan, americans are

suffering, and mitt romney's closing argument goes something like this. oh, beautiful forspacious skies -- >> come on. >> no, and he says on the campaign trail, i like patriotic songs and they're talking about what bible verses they read every day. the thing is -- he is acting like he's got a 50-point lead. >> it may not work out for him -- >> it's william shatner. >> yeah. >> priceline are doing "lucy in the sky with diamonds." it doesn't work for me. >> it's interesting, and haleprin and i were talking about this earlier. it's the dynamic of the commercials. if you watch the ads, watch the local news or the football game last night, it's wall-to-wall ads. and the ads are mitt romney talking about barack obama and all the other candidates talking about each other and not talking about mitt romney. so you can read into that what

you want. they're fighting each other perhaps for second place, fighting for the conservative voters, but it's almost like there are two primaries here. mitt romney versus barack obama and the more conservative candidates against each other. >> and you know, mika, something we said around the table a year ago that this election was not going to be about the republicans versus republicans, it was all about barack obama. and i just, especially in iowa, i don't get one candidate attacking another candidate. it doesn't work. and the democratic caucuses, it doesn't work in the republican caucuses. this race is all about barack obama. and who is going to be sent in to the office, tell him he's fired and get out. >> well -- >> and they're savaging each other and destroying their own candidacies. >> we have a little of that to show you because we're going to hear from the candidates.

what you see in santorum is the product of also just footwork going door-to-door. he's been to every town. i think he's done more of this than any other of these candidates. >> yeah. >> and it has made a difference for him that one-on-one touch. >> the crowds even at rick santorum's events are so small. historically. and let's talk, mark, really quickly, historically, the crowds are smaller, the candidates have no money, the organization's worse than professionals say they've seen in all of their years in modern history of covering these things. this is historically -- is it safe to say the weakest field in the history of iowa caucuses? >> by almost every metric, if you look at the way this campaign has been waged, nothing like we've seen in recent years. we've seen about 48 hours of the kind of intensity last cycle we saw for months on end. that's, again, one reason why even some conservatives here and nationally are swallowing mitt

romney because to beat president obama, the party needs something close to the scale that president obama has already built and will continue to build. and mitt romney's the only one who has shown he can do that. rick santorum as late as now is driving around in a pickup truck with a couple of aides. that is something sleek and agile, but it can't -- it is. >> sleek and agile. >> it's not to scale. >> i don't know if you call it sleek and agile, but that's not the way you beat the president of the united states. this is a weak field historically. >> i tend to agree. as santorum becomes the latest conservative to rise in the polls, mitt romney is attempting to draw a clear contrast between himself and now the former pennsylvania senator. take a listen. >> senator santorum was kind enough to endorse me last time around, i appreciate that. and we've been friends. i can tell you our backgrounds

are quite different. like speaker gingrich, senator santorum has spent his career in the government, in washington, nothing wrong with that, but it's a different background than i have. and people recognize with our km economy as the major issue we face that it would be helpful to have someone who understands the economy firsthand who spent the bulk of his career working in the private sector. >> back in 2008 when he was running for the presidency you were singing a different tune. this was your press release back then. you said governor romney is the candidate who will stand up for the conservative principles we hold dear. >> well, i was saying it relative to john mccain. >> does he have conservative values? conservative principles? >> of course, everybody on that stage that is in these debates has conservative values vis a vis president obama. the question is, are those values ones you can trust when they become president of the united states? >> so we can show his latest

campaign ad. but what do you make of his surge? rick santorum's? does he have the organization to move on? >> i really don't know. i know he doesn't have much of an organization past here. he's got some people behind him in south carolina. that's really the question. can he take an iowa win -- certainly can't win in new hampshire, mike. >> santorum? >> santorum. >> no. >> they may not give him a passport to go over the border. >> he might not get a pickup truck across the border. >> they may stop him and say, turn around, boy, go to vermont, you're not welcome in our state. but south carolina seems like south carolina's a state made for him, right? >> i'm not sure he couldn't win a moral victory in new hampshire. i don't think he can overtake romney. but let's say romney finishes a weak third, he's got some state legislators in new hampshire, he's from the northeast, i don't rule out that he has a showing there where the press says --

and the conservative movement says, look, romney couldn't win in iowa, he could barely win in new hampshire and santorum spent more time in south carolina than anyone else. i'm not predicting -- >> i think south carolina's a possibility. >> but if you're right that the conservative movement will look at mitt romney coming out of here and saying, whoa, we're not ready for this. at this point you have to say santorum has as good a chance as anyone else. >> if mitt romney wins iowa, i think you're going to have the same conservative push that we saw when newt gingrich went to the front of the polls where you're going -- you'll see the "wall street journal," "the national review," all saying, listen, we're going to elect another moderate republican if we don't get our act together. and i think the pressure's going to be overwhelming for people like michele bachmann and rick perry if they don't finish -- >> to drop out. >> -- second or third, to drop

out. >> i believe that to be true. but those two clips that we just showed, governor romney, senator santorum, at some point w.i.n. is going to kick in over ideology. if you show those two clips back to back, who is better equipped to take on barack obama? romney. >> it looks that way, joe. but i guess the question is because we've been having this for months now if it's not mitt romney, who is it? we've been having this discussion, having this fight and they haven't landed on anybody yet. why now would they decide, okay, this is our guy, we're going to go with him? and, b, the guy they go with, could he beat barack obama? >> except for republicans, and i feel this way too, we look back over the past 30, 40 years and say when did we win? we won when the national press said somebody who was too conservative to win the general

election. and ronald reagan's a great example but george w. bush, as well. he was the butt of mainstream media's jokes, and more reasonable, rational, moderate republicans -- gerald ford lost, bob dole in '96 lost, john mccain lost, so -- >> who is that person this time? who is the ronald reagan? >> well, there is no ronald reagan. >> okay. who's the george h.w. bush? >> i would settle for michael reagan at this point. >> i will tell you this -- >> it's mitt romney. >> i know this sounds crazy. but if i'm looking at the field right now, i'm telling newt gingrich, keep your head down, don't blow yourself up in iowa because there's going to be a lot of teeth gnashing and weeping after the guy that's got a 24% ceiling wins iowa. and the conservative split. because everybody's going to

start looking saying, okay, who is the conservative? we're not going to allow a guy that has the 24% of the moderates in the republican party voting for him while this conservative party pushes another let's say gerald ford to the finish line. >> most of the scenarios -- >> and by the way, i need to explain this. this isn't necessarily what i feel. i know i need to explain this. i'm telling you as i have predicted crazy never wins in the republican party and it doesn't. but the republican party just like i said when newt gingrich was at 38%, 39% wasn't going to stand for that, they're not going to stand for a guy with a 24% ceiling. >> right. >> walking away with a nomination. anybody that thinks it's going to be over after iowa and new hampshire if romney wins does not understand the conservative base. there will be blood. if mitt romney seems like the guy that's going to walk away

with this. >> most of the scenarios i can come up with now have romney winning this nomination. >> right. >> let's say he comes out of here weak, doesn't finish first, that would weaken it. we have the two debates next weekend, and newt gingrich will be going after mitt romney hard in those debates. he's done very well in the debates, he hasn't had one since he's started to decline. that's part of the scenario where romney has trouble winning the nomination. >> i've got to say this. i said it a year and a half ago, i think romney's going to win the nomination, but i think it's going to be ugly, very ugly. i still believe that's the case, even if he wins iowa and new hampshire because i think you're going to have a lot of conservatives that are going to have a lot of convincing. i think mitt romney can still move conservatives over his camp. >> they may have nowhere else to go. it's going to be a tough slog and we haven't gotten to the ron paul angle of the story, which

we have coming up. live from java joes this morning, michele bachmann will join us live on the set here as well as iowa governor terry branstad, and up next, mike allen joins us with the top stories from the "politico" playbook here in the coffee shop. but first bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> happy new year to everyone there. great crowd. forecast wise for iowa today and tomorrow, it's cold. all the cold air in the middle of the country is heading east over the next two or three days. windchills in des moines right now is 8, and tomorrow morning will be similar. there's no rain, no snow heading that way. and here's the forecast for the caucus tomorrow. temperatures are on the cold side, but by iowa standards, no big deal and no one will have trouble getting to the polling sites because of the bad weather, that's good news. as far as the bad weather today, if you're near the lakes, it's snowing.

lake effect snow today and tomorrow. the big cities of the east, the temperatures are going to drop and drop quickly later on tonight into tomorrow. so it's very cold, minneapolis, iowa to chicago, on the east coast, today's your transition day. areas like new york and boston. you're watching "morning joe," of course, we're brewed by starbucks.

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all right. >> welcome back to "morning joe." live from java joes. a look now at if morning papers. start with the "new york times." over the last three days, los angeles has seen a record 39 cars set on fire across the city. the worst string of arsons since the 1992 riots. police say surveillance video

taken near a scene of the fire on saturday shows a man wanted in questioning in the case. another four fires sparked overnight. and in iran, iranian scientists have produced the nation's first nuclear fuel rod. >> okay. >> the announcement marks another step in the country's atomic program that the u.s. fears is aimed at making nuclear weapons and making this entire world far less stable. turning now to our parade of papers. cedar rapids gazette shows undecided voters will play a key role in tomorrow's caucus. 41% say they're unsure who they will vote for. this thing could be wide open. >> i know. willie, let's go to the politico closet cam. >> yes. >> they have the green screen that makes it look like a big newsroom behind them. >> and the cgi employees behind them. >> it's vandehei's family. >> i think we've got one here

with us. >> no. >> mike allen. >> you look fantastic, mike. >> i listened to your advice. >> that's fantastic. >> which is what? >> to lose weight. >> and joe, you can't have this. who gave this to you? >> metabolism up, metabolism down, you lose a lot of weight. >> that's done. >> mika. >> i'm sorry. you can't have that. >> mike allen, he's the chief white house correspondent for politico. >> yes, he is. >> he's a big-timer. he owns iowa. >> yeah. >> mr. iowa they call him. >> what are you hearing from the romney campaign? how are they going to spin this? win is great, obviously, second place could be good too, though. >> you know their whole thing is discipline. they see a big win here and they're trying to tamp their people down to make sure they're not taking victory laps because there are now such high expectations. for years they kept down in iowa, but they're moving into a new phase here. they say that if it's a win for

them, fantastic. if santorum slips by them, that's fine. he does not have the resources, organization to go forward. and if ron paul gets past them, it's great. as long as they finish in the top two, feeling good about the road ahead. almost impossible to see how they're not the nominee. and what's interesting, i know you're hearing this too, the other campaigns don't even dispute that. if you push other campaigns on -- if mitt romney's first or second, how is he not the nominee? they're not going to give you a clear answer. >> the e-mail that went into politico, i'll read it for you. from a top romney adviser. if we win, it's fantastic, if santorum wins and we're second, it's good, if paul wins and we're second, it's great. any of the outcomes is positive for us. >> they'll still tell you, we never expected to win -- >> how often does he e-mail you? >> come on. mark haleprin, do you think it's

over if mitt romney wins iowa? >> i think it is, joe. i know you don't. and i do think there will be this spasm of conservative angst in saying it can't be over. he's not the right person. they should have thought of it before. if he wins iowa, i think he will roll out of new hampshire and in a strong position in south carolina. willie and i were talking off air about the notion of people dropping out. i don't think anybody's going to drop out. even michele bachmann will go and try to fight on in south carolina. >> really? >> it's perfect for mitt romney to have a crowded field in south carolina the way he has had here. >> especially with the conservative vote being broken up. there's a financial incentive for them to stay in, pawlenty learned that, federal funds coming up in february. so certainly through south carolina probably further, you'll have bachmann and perry. very telling, right? that bachmann and perry going from here not to new hampshire, like the romney plan is, but south carolina where they can make a last stand. >> and perry is running a lot of

commercials in south carolina and he has been for some time. you know, mark, when we were talking this weekend on the phone, you had a fascinating conversation with a japanese journalist. >> where is this going? >> no, i'm -- >> how conservative -- well, i think the japanese like to say -- they haven't expressed -- no, but -- >> what? >> in conservative parties in other countries would take care of this. >> oh. >> you would not have five conservatives running against one moderate and allowing the moderate to walk away with the nomination. >> this was a japanese politician who said in our country and a lot of other industrialized democracies you'd have the conservative leaders in a room, including representatives of the candidates and the candidates themselves and they would say romney's not right for us, we need to stop him, let's get behind rick santorum or newt gingrich, you don't have that in

our system, in part because it's driven for all of these powerful personalities pouring blood, sweat, and tears in it. they're not -- >> they're not giving up. they don't want to give up. so again, it's like -- it's like a version of prisoners dilemma. they're all attacking each other to be the alternative, mitt romney's getting through the caucuses with no sustained attack against him and may be too late to stop him. >> the simplest reason is that there is no huckabee coalition this time. right? the christian conservatives, home schoolers who came together for huckabee in '08 are now all split up. >> wow. >> we'll see what happens. >> yeah. >> it is -- it is fascinating that these candidates who are going to be able to keep going on and on in part because you do have so many strong personalities, but in part also because of the era we live in. michele bachmann because of the internet, because of social media was able to create her own organization. you know, 20, 30, 40 years ago, political parties would be able

to step in and say, you know, e we -- we think you've got a great future, this isn't your time, you did well, now back off -- >> she found her voice. >> that doesn't happen anymore. same thing with rick perry. party leaders would say, rick, you're young, but that doesn't happen. >> another thing that fuels it and i've seen this in past cycles, all of these candidates -- all of them are first-time candidates outside of paul and romney. newt gingrich shows up yesterday in ames at a sports bar, there were a lot of people there, it was packed, there was electricity, closer to the campaign, crowds are going to get bigger and a lot of them see it, something's going on. i should stay in this race because i've got momentum. every one of them's feeling that. you can see it in their faces, they feel like something's happening, they don't recognize the scale is just not enough, at least so far to stop mitt romney. >> you cannot cover the iowa caucuses without first speaking

to japanese politicians. well done, mark haleprin. >> tried and true methods. >> there's no doubt as it goes in tokyo, so goes it in iowa. >> so goes -- so goes ames. >> something like that. >> thank you so much. >> thank you. >> it was great to see you. >> you've got great reviews at the museum last night. growing up brzezinski. everybody loved it. >> okay. >> coming up tomorrow, mitt romney will join us live from java joes here in des moines. >> and we've got michele bachmann this morning. >> this morning. up next here, we're going to break for a little football. huge game last night. giants and cowboys, nfc rivals squaring off. the winner goes to the playoffs, the loser goes home. >> look at him. >> wow. >> we'll be right back.

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you know, last time we came out here, it was very exciting

for us to come to java joes. historic, coffee's amazing, people are amazing, this is history. four years ago at this time, t.j. took off. >> yeah. >> we always credit tim russert with launching this show, which he did, but it really was -- all the stars were lined up. not only did we have tim, but we also had t.j. on vacation. that made a big difference. >> i'm back. >> the saving christmas. >> we peaked four years ago. >> hs back. >> obviously you can tell t.j.'s back. >> we love you, t.j. >> thanks a lot, appreciate that. >> hey, let's take a quick break for a little football. >> yeah. >> big game. giants and cowboys last night at the meadowlands, here were the stakes. winner goes to the playoffs, loser season over. victor cruise of patterson, new jersey, free down the sideline,

74 yards for the touchdown. for the fourth, they cut the lead to seven. giants hoping to avoid a collapse. >> you're kidding me -- >> eli spins around and hooves. he's had a great season, cruise comes down with that one. that led to a field goal. few minutes later, cowboys go three and out, manning's 15th fourth quarter touchdown pass this season. that breaks an nfl record. putting his critics to rest, 31-14, giants win, they take the nfc east title, cowboys' season is over. lions go to new orleans to play the saints on saturday, drew brees undefeated at home this year, giants now get a home game against the atlanta falcons, despite the fact they have a worse record than atlanta. number one seed, packers, number two 49ers get bys through the

first round. >> as a guy who has followed the jets since '69, love the jets. boy they had such a rough season. they start out strong, then they go 5-5, then they win the next three, and then their season falls apart. >> yeah. >> it's hard to explain what happened. what happened? >> yeah, mark sanchez looks like he's regressed. last night, in the afc, the jets trying to keep the playoff hopes alive. there's slim hope. fourth quarter, jets within three, look at the dolphins' big man, randy starks, how did that happen? picks off sanchez, goes 18 yards before he trips over his own feet. three minutes to go, new york has another chance to take the lead. miami kept giving them chances. 55 yards, sanchez had to make a tackle here. three interceptions for mark sanchez. so the jets failed to make the

playoffs, rex ryan talking after the game. he had predicted this season a super bowl victory. >> i'm always going to chase the super bowl. i know i get criticized for it beyond belief and all that stuff. but if you don't, then you're probably a loser. okay. i'm not a loser, so, you know, if people don't have the guts or courage to put it out there, then so be it. that's on them. i will always chase the super bowl, i believe we'll win the super bowl and we'll believe it for the next 15 years. you can get all the articles out you want, that's fine and dandy. but for me, i'll find a way to make this team better. we will, there's no question about it. >> i love rex ryan, i love the jets. mark sanchez, we love mark sanchez. we had him on the show, and we were really impressed by what a great guy he was. but, boy, he has lost self-confidence, willie. he has lost it out there. what are they going to do in the off season? >> they've got to -- when they almost went to the super bowl

the last two years, they ran the ball and played defense. they're a running team. he's not the kind of quarterback that's going to carry them to the super bowl. i think that's the reality. >> are they going to have to be looking for a plan "b"? >> they'll keep him and get a backup quarterback for next year. they've got to run the ball. it's clear after three years now, he can't carry them on his arm. he can't. >> they've got to get a quarterback. he's the backup quarterback. >> he might end up being the backup quarterback three games in the next season. >> maybe special teams, that was a good tackle. >> it was. >> that's a shame. >> good guy. >> he's a really good guy, he just -- if the jets want to go, and rex ryan took the jets -- >> yep. >> to one game to the super bowl for the past two seasons, this is the nfl, that is really hard to do. so yeah, they had a down year. this happens when nfl teams -- i expect them to be back and be stronger next year, but they're going to have to really either sanchez is going to have to find

it inside of him or they're going to have to get a new quarterback. >> i don't think he's got much time. the afc playoff picture looked like this. the raiders needed a win to get in, the broncos also lost, but they get in because the raiders lost. kind of back into the playoffs. here's the picture, steelers and broncos are the wild card, patriots and ravens get first round byes. >> we were traveling yesterday, has tebow lost it? >> 6 of 22 for 60 yards, they scored. they got lucky because the raiders lost, as well. i don't know, i don't like that team in the playoffs. >> he had the ball at the end -- >> but the lord was apparently preoccupied. >> just stop. come on. this is not an snl skit -- >> he's a nice boy. >> you can tell he's an upper west sider. >> tebow had two opportunities at the end of the fourth quarter. >> you could see how badly the

network wanted -- i love jim nance -- >> we love jim. >> is it tebow time? could he do it? >> we want a story -- >> he couldn't do it. coming up next, iowa republican party chairman matt stron is here at java joes to talk to us about tomorrow's caucuses. plus mika's must-read opinion pages. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. we all have internal plumbing.

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and here we are. welcome back to "morning joe." live at java joes. >> all right. >> in iowa. >> great to be back. >> i love it. it feels like home. >> it is home. >> it is home. and joining us now we have the chairman of the iowa republican

party matt stron with us. >> how exciting, matt. >> talk about exciting, being the first iowan to talk to you since you've -- >> this is big, baby. this is big. what's your take on the caucus thus far and the candidates? the crowds are a little smaller, maybe a little less enthused. are you concerned? >> no, i'm not. this is the first opportunity any republican anywhere in the country gets an opportunity to cast a vote to replace barack obama. and here in the state that launched him, we've had 33 straight months of republican voter gains, so i'm confident we'll have a strong turnout on tuesday night. and this is a state that will be one of six or seven that will shape the election next november. hopefully we can use a good caucus organization. >> we have michele bachmann on later on today, she won the straw poll here back in the summer. and a lot of people were expecting her to surge and possibly take iowa. she's right now having trouble gaining traction. what's going on with that campaign?

>> well, i think it speaks to the fluidity of this race. of course as chairman i've got to be neutral. i won't cast a vote on tuesday night, but i think that goes too in an earlier segment, talking about the social conservative vote between santorum, bachmann, and newt gingrich and the fact that hasn't coalesced around a single candidate -- >> why do they keep going up and down? we talk about michele bachmann, she goes up, she goes down. i suspect if this race went on another month, she would go back up. you have ron paul who shot up, gingrich shot up, now ron paul if you look at the last couple of days of the iowa poll, he's going down and santorum's going up. why are iowa voters having a difficult time deciding who they want to replace barack obama? >> well, i think there's two things and we talked to any iowa republican, if you have a chance to hit the campaign events. >> oh, these people are all iowa republicans behind us. >> i hope we see them tuesday

night at 7:00. we want someone to aggressively prosecute the case. but we also want somebody who is going to stand up and articulate why republican philosophy and principles are the best for addressing the challenges the nation faces. and i think that's still that tension you see why 2 out of 5 caucus goers could change their mind before tuesday night which is unprecedented this late in the ball game. >> you know, mike, i've been -- margaret thatcher obviously is going to be in the news over the next couple of weeks and meryl streep movie's coming out. so the dorky conservative that i am, and i just watched margaret thatcher clips on youtube. it's a great way to spend a friday night. and i just sat there and got chills going down my spine. it just -- how compelling she was, and yet as a conservative i'm looking at mitt romney make his closing argument reciting patriotic songs. there just doesn't seem to be

anybody out there that's ready to take the conservative mantle. >> i bet what struck you about watching margaret thatcher is the definition of leadership. strong leadership that you can affix to her image and her voice when you hear her, but in listening to matt and just, you know, walking around not only iowa but anywhere else in this country, i somehow get the sense that the volatility or fluidity whatever you refer to it amongst voters here, that's within the country at large. and it's about both sides, democratic and republican and it's built -- it's geared, rooted in an apprehension about where we are right now and where we're headed. the thatcher role model is the follow me role model. no matter how difficult it might be, follow me, and i think americans are yearning for that sense of direction. let's go. >> and you look back at what thatcher said in 1975 when she took control of the conservative movement in great britain. what she was saying was radical

and off the charts. but because she dared to say it, she changed the future. she helped even ronald reagan get elected. i just don't see that leadership here. >> well, matt, let me read to you from "the atlantic." iowa prepares to settle for romney, they're coming out to see mitt romney in iowa, hundreds of them, they're not expecting to be blown away, instead the crowds are skeptical and a bit resigned. with decision time nearly upon them, they're coming home reluctantly to the least implausible republican candidate. if romney appears to be pulling ahead of his rivals before tuesday's iowa caucuses, it's not because he's suddenly caught fire. romney who got 25% of the iowa vote four years ago hasn't surged so much as stayed in place amid the chaos, nor have voters here suddenly -- rather, they're preparing to settle. >> is that unfair? >> well, i'm not going to play the role of pundit since i have to oversee the election. but the one thing i will tell

you is that's what this process is designed for. we have a chance to vet the various candidates can and to mike's point, what you see happening in the republican party mirrors nationally is that it is that tension. because we see an unprecedented opportunity to make sure we can stake a claim as to why a conservative governing philosophy is better for this country for the next four years. and we want to make sure that our nominee has that vision for the country. whether it's romney or one of the other candidates, this process will make for a stronger general electorate candidate who understands that america's thirsting for bold leadership. >> eric says in red state, honest question, this is about rick santorum, held office from 1991 until 2007 and prior to that was a lawyer where his biggest claim to fame was representing the world wrestling federation arguing on their behalf that wrestlers should be allowed to use steroids because it was entertainment not actual sport.

so in a year when everyone is worried about jobs and economy, in all honesty, why do you think rick santorum is the most viable and qualified candidate to put up against barack obama? because i really and generally do not get why we would want to throw one senator elect president out of office to replace him with a senator who couldn't win reelection in his home state. >> first, you were in the cradle of wrestling years. if you were going to take a shot at wrestling, this is a bad state to do that. but it's interesting. when you hear rick santorum on the stump, he does talk about his electability argument, the fact that he defeated a democrat congressman, senator to get in office and most of his speech is not about the conservatism, but he talks about bringing back repatriated profits to create jobs. i think senator santorum understands where the electorate is. and even in a place like iowa

where we're below 6%, the agriculture industry is going strong, we still have the same apprehensions that all americans do relative to the debt, relative to a private sector economy. those are the messages resinating with republican voters. >> mark haleprin, 1994, santorum got elected in pennsylvania, and everybody a year later dismissed it because it was 1994, you could elect somebody like me in 1994. i remember being in congress in '99, seeing santorum at an event, and everybody was whispering dead man walking. he was up in 2000, nobody expected santorum to win in pennsylvania in 2000, he did. it was a huge shot. i would disagree with erick for once that if you look at santorum's pennsylvania record, yeah he lost in 2006, what republican in a swing state didn't? he's got a pretty impressive record. >> the wins are, i think, more impressive than the loss, but people like erick erickson are

focused on the loss. santorum has a good story to tell. we were talking a couple of days ago about story telling and the importance of story telling. i think he has a better story to tell than he's been out there about his own background and manufacturing ask tieing up his record and resume with the vision for the country. he's not really nailed it. >> matt, thank you very much, we'll be right back with much more "morning joe" live from java joes. ♪ i believe in dreams again ♪ oh, yeah ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ oh, boy ♪ i believe in miracles ♪ and i believe in you and me ♪ ♪ see, i was lost ♪ now i'm free ♪ 'cause i believe in you and me ♪

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welcome back to java joes in des moines. we're going to ask them who they're caucusing for tomorrow night and why ask and what issues are top of mind for the people here in the state of iowa. also we'll talk to presidential candidate michele bachmann. she'll join us live here at java joes. also the governor of iowa terry branstad. all that ahead on "morning joe." i wouldn't do that. pay the check? no, i wouldn't use that single miles credit card. hey, aren't you... shhh. i'm researching a role. today's special... the capital one venture card. you earn double miles on every purchase. impressive. chalk is a lost medium. if you're not earning double miles... you're settling for half. was that really necessary? [ male announcer ] get the venture card at capitalone.com and earn double miles on every purchase every day. what's in your wallet?

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i've been pretty electable. i was elected 12 times once people got to know me in my own congressional district. i think that might be more propaganda than anything else. i would say that i'm pretty mainstream. i think that people who are attacking me now are the ones who can't defend their records and they've been all over the place. they've been flip-flopping and they can't defend themselves and they're have a little trouble finding any flip-flops on me so they have to go and dig up and distort and demagogue issues. i have no idea what's going to happen. i may come in first, i made come in second, i doubt i'll come in third or fourth. and the future of the campaign will always be ongoing. we're going to have a -- and the momentum is going to continue. regardless of exactly what happens and what place i am on tuesday night. >> it is the top of the hour, which would be 6:00 a.m. here in

iowa. welcome back to "morning joe." we're live at java joes. mark haleprin is still with us. and joining the set, we have national affairs editor for "new york" magazine and jon heilemann. >> there's too much profanity in television, that's the problem. >> the national republican national committee michael steele is with us. michael, let's get your take as a republican. how do you see iowa shaping up right now? after the register poll, which is usually dead on. >> yeah, you still have a significant undecided vote out there. which means tomorrow's going to be anybody's bet who walks through the finish line. yeah, mitt romney's in the best position, but you have santorum and paul. i think -- really given the organization and the grass roots on the ground touch with the people can really pull through -- >> romney who hasn't campaigned hard here this year, what if mitt romney wins?

because you've got one, two, three, four, five six conservatives splitting up the vote. what happens? >> i think you see a little hell break out, a great deal of frustration bubble up from the bottom. i think you may see in that moment folks beginning to coalesce, and this is the opportunity that newt may be talking about having in new hampshire and beyond where he's able to coalesce or at least one somebody, conservative is able to coalesce that vote in a way that allows them to take on romney. right now watching conservatives divide themselves and not really have any one person with an army behind them come after them. and he's really gotten through unscathed. and i think the "wall street journal" hit it out of the park in that way. >> it's amazing that everybody's attacking everybody else. >> except him. >> except for the guy who is the

front runner. >> you know -- >> mitt romney has been unscathed. >> he has, and organized and undisciplined almost to the point where people make fun of him for this, but it'll pay off. >> you can criticize on that side of, you know, the conservatives not being organized. you have to look at the romney campaign. and anybody who thinks romney has not been engaged in this state the past year is crazy. he's been here from four years before, he knows the terrain, his people know the terrain and they'll be able to get a lot of their vote out tomorrow. the question is you still have 40% undecided, joe. how does that break tomorrow as people get up and go to those caucuses and sitting there listening to the speeches? >> 40% undecided. and here's the key, mika, 24%, 25% of the party that is moderate and those voters if you look at every poll, they're voting for mitt romney. you've got 75% of this party that is conservative. >> yeah. >> and they are splitting their vote, six, seven different ways.

and that is fascinating. can mitt romney divide and conquer the entire campaign? >> a twist you brought up in your comments, michael steele about newt gingrich. i'm going to read about heilemann's piece in "new york" magazine about that point. there you have it, gingrich who trails romney badly in the state plans to use the week between the caucuses here and primary there to rip romney a new one. where gingrich for the moment is polling strongly and ahead of the pack. there's an opening for almost anybody in this race. >> we were out yesterday, mark and i trailing newt around and an amazing thing happened up in marshalltown where he was not scheduled to take questions from reporters but got goaded into a media availability where our colleague chris matthews more or less dominated the proceedings. and essentially got newt engaged enough that he started talking about his intention to finally

do what he has not done, which is go very harshly negative against romney as we get out of iowa. he's looking past iowa because it looks like he's not going to finish much higher than fourth. but he was clear and explicit the way he is, talked like a political consultant and said this is what i'm going to do. i'm going to go to new hampshire, i'm going to talk about romney being too moderate, about romney being bad on planned parenthood. he laid out essentially a post-iowa strategy premised on using some of that money he now has, the $9 million that's come into his campaign in the last month to hammer romney in a way that he has not been hammered as you said mika and joe. romney's been unscathed. not anymore. >> and by the way, you've got to look at on the calendar, there'll be a lot of people that will be declaring the end of his campaign. we're in iowa, when this phase ends, we go to new hampshire. and that phase doesn't last for a year, it lasts for a week.

and then, the republican fight turns south into newt's backyard and you go in south carolina, which is one state to the north of him and then you go to florida, which is one state to the south of him. and if i had to put money on anyone right now if newt doesn't do too badly over the next week or two, i say -- >> i all of a sudden got very tired. >> this one, for people that are going to declare the morning after iowa if romney wins this is over, they don't know the republican party and don't know the conservative movement. >> well, newt gingrich, of course, his support is plummeting after his pretty big surge and he's putting the blame of all of that on mitt romney. take a listen. >> you believe he is trying to buy this one? >> i don't know, $3.5 million in negative ads, you tell me. >> i was just struck by the "politico" analysis that the sheer volume of anti-gingrich ads run by romney's pac.

i'll let you describe how you would describe it. for a state this size, to spend that number of dollars in negative ads aimed at one candidate is amazing. >> do you feel -- >> no, i feel romney voted. >> i think speaker gingrich announced he raised $10 million this quarter, he ought to be proud of that. we're working hard to raise funds, as well. this is an election that's not being driven by money raised, it's been driven by connection with the voters, debates, experience, and i think those are the features that are driving the campaign so far. i think they probably will be through the -- through the entire process. >> could we see, mark haleprin, over the course -- and again, things are much different now because of what michael steele and other farsighted republicans did over the past four years, getting rid of these winner take all contests to make sure you have a long, hard fought battle to get the best candidate and not wake up one day in february

and find out it's john mccain. could we be seeing right there a preview of possibly a one-on-one blood bath that could take us through the spring and early summer? >> possible. but i still believe that momentum matters in these early states. if romney emerges from iowa and new hampshire with wins, he -- he does not have a lock on the mathematics of the nominee, but i think it would be very hard to stop them from rallying. not all conservatives, but some would rally behind him and enough for him to do well in south carolina and florida. unless one of these other candidates really steps up and takes him on effectively. >> let's say santorum continues the trends and wins this thing, which i think is right now quite likely. let's say santorum wins iowa. what do you see moving forward with santorum? does he have a shot in new hampshire to show strong? does he have a shot in south carolina? could he shake things up? >> well, i think the problem for their -- two problems for

santorum. one is financial. and he will get a boost in fund raising if he wins the iowa caucuses. he will get a bunch of money that will come in. you think about a lot of second tier candidates, that's what they hope to have happen. they win money and the money rolls in. that was john edwards' strategy in 2008. santorum is so poor that i'm not sure all of his financial woes would disappear -- >> it's fascinating. >> it's true. >> but the second thing is that, you know, what romney has benefitted from here is this fragmented conservative side of the field. he hopes, romney, to have the same thing play out in south carolina. rick santorum winning here is the best possible outcome for romney besides romney winning himself. he can -- gingrich and perry still feeling strong enough they can play in south carolina, santorum winning here and so therefore playing in south carolina and you could imagine the same kind of scenario replicating itself there for romney where he might be able to

win south carolina with 25%, 26%, 28% of the votes. he wants all of the conservatives propped up so no one rallies around the single conservative. >> let me ask you this, michael steele. i think this is one of the most fascinating developments in this race over the past year, one years ago republicans won an historic victory nationwide. in fact, the largest legislative landslide on the state and national level in the history of american politics. this president has been languishing in the low 40s, mid 40s most of the year, he's ended strong. and you always hear that power implores a vacuum. and it does. and yet when this is a backdrop, the strongest candidates in the republican party don't run against a president who was severely weakened a year ago. and for those who are in the race, nobody is raising money other than mitt romney. what's going on? >> well, i think a lot of it from the money side is a lot of the major donors given the new

financial rules can play more one-on-one. they don't have to give to the larger structures they have in the past. they can pick and choose their candidates. they're waiting to see. the interesting part of that is that those candidates really don't need that cash right now. because of the way the system is designed with the kind of media attention they're getting, they're staying in the front of the field in terms of the voters' image of them and people seeing them in a way that allows them to compete. pawlenty getting out was the craziest thing in the world. he should've stayed in the race. if he stayed in, he probably would have been the settled on candidate. because he felt he had no money, which he didn't really need. >> didn't need. john heilemann, why is it? money still is the mother's milk of american politics, why is everybody dried out? >> well, i think there's been the donor class wants to be with the winner. they want to be with the strong candidate. and they've had the same attitude toward a lot of the republican candidates that a lot

of people in the media have. that they've looked apart from romney, none of them have looked plausible. you don't want to write that check until you think there's a guy who you think could be the nominee. romney who has looked like the plausible nominee for much of the year, and yet they look at him, he doesn't have that much money. romney's done fine, but not barack obama/hillary clinton level money and they've looked at him and worries he has a glass jaw. you've had a lot of donors saying, you know, i'm going to wait and see until some of these contests happen. let's see how this shakes out a little bit. the more that circus atmosphere has prevailed, the more people have decided to sit on their wallets. >> mark haleprin? >> they're victims of the obama economy. people aren't feeling as flush. you talk to mitt romney and his people and they'll say raising money this cycle is that lot harder than it was last cycle. >> and on the local level. i talked to a lot of friends in

northwest florida and what's happening down there and everybody's said the same thing for a couple of years, it is impossible to raise dollars politically because money's so tight everywhere. >> well, i wonder also how much something we saw last night at the historical society plays into it. and is the donors waiting to see who can win? or is it the donors thinking they wish someone else was in the race? because we did a show of hands last night with the audience, and a good number of people raised their hand saying they still wish at this stage in the game that someone else was in the race. is there any precedent for that? >> it's too late for that, isn't it? >> it's true. but i think, mika, this year has been a factor. there were a lot of donors waiting for mitch daniels or chris christie -- >> haley barbour. >> bill crystal wrote a column saying, please, someone get in. >> you can get in and get enough

delegates to be strong at the convention. you've got about another month. >> really? >> you couldn't win a mathematical majority, but if romney is cut and turns out to be a bleeder, there'll be another round of discussion of can someone get in amass as many delegates as they can? perhaps get delegates from people in the race, it's unlikely, but possible. >> all the filing deadlines have not passed? >> no, you have up until the beginning of february when the last of the deadlines comes into play. to mark's point, you have an organizational problem not to mention the general perception problem with the larger public that the republican party is so dysfunctional that it could not figure out who their nominee is after an 18-month battle. and to have someone else ride in on a horse -- >> would have to be a character. >> you'd have to be good at winning folks over because that's a heck of a hard sell.

>> and with all of romney's problems with the base, he's been endorsed by president bush 41, by a lot of conservatives, not a majority, but a lot. as weak of a front-runner -- >> the calendar, the republican calendar, we're talking about not having the winner take all primaries. there's really back loaded this year. if you look at super tuesday, it's not that super. there's not -- there's -- it's really the delegate output thing goes on for a long time and spread out in a way it's never been spread out before. even on the days with a lot of primaries. there's only a few on the days there used to be 10 or 12, now there's five or six. >> thank you very much. >> the thinking was exactly to your point. we don't want this thing over at the end of january. we want to give these guys a chance to fight this thing out and see who comes out the strongest. still ahead, michele bachmann will join us live here at java joes as well as terry

branstad. also chris matthews and david gregory will be here. a day before voters head to the polls. but first, willie geist standing by here at java joes. who do you have? >> standing by right next to mike barnicle pretending he's a man of the people, talking to the regular folks. we've been listening to you new york, d.c. types tell us what's going to happen, we're going to talk to iowa republicans. rob's an attorney from des moines, tyler a money man from des moines. who are you causing tomorrow night? >> romney. >> why? >> he seems like he's been there on a political front and the business front. he's got practical solutions. i think he's the guy that could take republican party forward into the presidency this fall. >> and you also told me you like him because you think he can win, which is important. >> winning is important ultimately. isn't that the goal? >> does that mean the other candidates you think cannot win? >> i think he has the best chance at winning let's put it that way. >> tyler? >> i think i'm undecided

tomorrow. i think romney has a good chance to win against obama, that'll weigh heavily in my decision. >> what's the one issue you'll be thinking about most tomorrow night? >> what they'll do for small businesses, i think. i think that's important for america. >> all right. all right, rob and tyler, thanks so much. we appreciate it. we'll be right back live from java joes, "morning joe" is brewed by starbucks. oh it's clearance time! yeah, our low prices are even lower. we need to teach her how to walk. she is taking up valuable cart space. aren't you, honey? [ male announcer ] it's our biggest clearance event of the year where our prices are even lower. save money. live better. walmart. when i lost weight in all the right places. you know what i mean! [ laughs ] when i tried to lose weight other ways,

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who has the best chance to beat obama? rick santorum. a full spectrum conservative, rick santorum is rock solid on values issues, a favorite of the tea party for fighting corruption and taxpayer abuse,

more foreign policy credentials than nip candidate, and rick's made in the usa jobs plan will make america an economic super power again. rick santorum, a trusted conservative who gives us the best chance to take back america. >> there you go, the ads are unbelievable. there are so many of them, welcome back to "morning joe." live at java joes. we have a great crowd. thank you for coming. >> thank you, guys. java joes. >> they were here so early. >> they were. >> what time is it? >> you see the young girl -- she actually pulled her parents here. >> how old are you? >> what? >> how old are you? >> i'm 11. >> 11 and she's waking up to come see a political show. i strongly recommend you look at your priorities.

>> watch something else. >> get a grip. get a grip. tell her to get a grip. >> let's see public affairs talk show -- >> at 3:00 in the morning. >> i love it. >> is that child abuse? >> i think so. >> she's the one who pulled her parents here, which is great. >> the kids love us, andrea. >> that's what they say. >> anyway. joining us now host of "andrea mitchell reports," andrea mitchell. he's been here on the ground several days now. what do you make of sort of the sentiment out there and the crowds and the number of undecided voters? >> still looking for the excitement. waiting for somebody who is going to check all the boxes. there is anger out there, frustration, anger at washington. you know, all of the sentiments that motivated the tea party movement and everything else. but the tea party itself has not endorsed because they have not found anyone who meets their economic expectations, but still satisfies, you know, their

concerns about someone who goes too far on the social -- >> talk about the events. what events have you been to? what's been your reaction? are you following newt around? >> a little bit. interviewed romney, interviewed santorum. santorum had a smallish crowd, but interesting and engaged. he talks a long time. he is very -- as you know he -- is very washington in that he talks like a member of congress. >> you said something that everybody else is telling me off camera. and when you talked about how santorum had a small crowd and talked a very long time, john heilemann laughed because there's this take, andrea, and i'm hearing this. if you told me this senator, this ex-senator that still hasn't focused on his campaign message that still has small crowds would be jumping to the front, i wouldn't believe you. but it's not like santorum's wowing them like mike huckabee did.

what's happening? why is he surging? >> slow and steady winning the race potentially or at least coming up in the polls. because people do want to be courted, wanted to be wooed and he's gone to all 99 counties and he has, you know, shown he cares. he's still in that pickup truck. he doesn't have the entourage. none of them really do. what is different this time is -- >> and he's got the vest. he's got the sweater vest. >> yes, that too. >> that's worth at least five points. >> andrea's being too kind. >> i've never been accused of being too kind. >> he is so -- he's so -- there's no word to use harsher than this, he's so senatorial, his answers go on forever they're technical and boring, full of reminiscences. oh, my god, stop. but, but, but -- >> he's winning! >> here's the thing -- sincere, authentic, real.

not an ounce of phoniness about him. the answers go on forever and they're like he was really trying to answer my question. i asked him a question, he tried to answer it. you know, most of the guys have sound bites, rick perry, he's glib, this guy is actually trying to answer my question. >> but here, michael steele, is a take away from what we're hearing about the guy who has a good shot of winning this thing. these are not for the most part -- this sounds harsh, but just judging by past campaign standards, these are not a-list candidates. these are not people who come -- >> oh, boy. >> no, i'm serious. and what i'm saying, and you know what? i should not be quoted tomorrow in the blog saying that, that should not be attributed to me because i haven't been here. i just got here, this is what i'm hearing from everybody on the ground that these are not a-list candidates.

they are -- there is still a bit of sort of an amateurish feel to every one of these candidates. >> they still have that -- >> the newbie thing. they'll get better, but it's fascinating. >> at a time when we needed them to be better a long time ago. and the reality of it is, these candidates, you know, this is our field. and i've taken on the establishment saying, look, you know, you can wish and -- >> this is our field! it's our field -- >> we're stuck with it. we're stuck with it. >> we might as well get used to it. >> that sounds like saying, how's your wife? >> she's my wife. >> no, when -- >> that's not the same! this is not the same! >> this is my -- >> get inside -- >> if i say this is my wife, i don't go home. >> this is our field. >> but this is our field. and the reality of it is, as

much as you wouldacoulda, shoulda, that some republican is going to save -- >> let me ask andrea a question. >> she's very nice. she's very nice. >> but you married her. >> you're solid. >> she's solid. >> i mean, seriously, michael steele, that is damning with the faintest of praise for this field. why don't you take over? >> mika, save these boys. >> i will. anger at washington, how much do you think that plays into the indecision we're seeing now? and the fact nobody has emerged. people are not feeling completely convinced. is it the candidates' fault or the republicans in washington? and how they've played the game? >> well, i think the candidates have to take responsibility for either being boring or not responding to the issues. but bottom line is electability may turn out to be the thing that moves the undecided voters. there are some voters just a bit ago who talked to willie over there. and they want to see somebody

who can beat barack obama. he's the guy they're going after. and i think in the last couple of hours at caucus night, you may see people who are inspired by that. but the other thing, the unknown factor is how many independents are going to come on caucus night and register as republicans? and michael, you know the process better than anyone, that could move it and that could move it more to the center. >> fascinating -- >> the point about the desire to beat barack obama? >> yeah. >> here's the problem -- >> there isn't that much. >> the person who can beat barack obama is someone who is going to have to reach a broader section of the american population that's going to include independents and right of center democrats in order to offset the coalitions that obama still has to use this fall. that candidate has got to emerge in a way that she's able to make the case. >> so michael -- >> and the requirements being set forth for these folks is just not going to give you that

person. >> that can help romney. >> what candidate really could actually do what you're talking about? >> well, at one point people said romney camp, but huntsman was another one. the reality of it is, huntsman hasn't caught on the fire, he's putting his eggs in the new hampshire basket. he's still in single digits in the polling up there. this is romney's moment. here's the problem, you're at 24%, bro. i mean -- how do you get -- >> he cannot crack that. >> amazing. >> there's a contrarian point about this. the reason romney's so strong as a potential general electorate candidate, he doesn't scare anybody. and it's not a question of his ability to attract some of these voting blocks, he won't scare any away. this is a theory among republicans. we can make this race about barack obama, just a referendum

on barack obama, that's how we win. and mitt romney's the likeliest one to be able to do that because he doesn't scare away anybody. >> you know what, though? he who does not scare anyone does not inspire anyone. i will tell you this, margaret thatcher even at 93 -- >> scares me. >> still scares the hell out of liberals like you, pot-smoking liberals from brooklyn like you. ronald reagan scared the hell out of a lot of people. conservative champions scare -- >> she scared me -- i had to go live and do interviews on the "today" show with margaret thatcher. she was fantastic. >> she was remarkable. that's why, andrea, i'm a bit skeptical when somebody says, well, he'd be good because he doesn't scare anybody. that's actually not a good sign for a lot of conservatives. >> that's a pragmatic approach for going to the middle. santorum is making that point. then you ask him a follow-up question, but you lost by 18 points in 2006 for reelection and he says that was a bad year,

this could be a bad year too. i don't know. i think this is so unpredictable, 41% undecided. we don't know what's going to happen. >> no doubt. >> thank you so much for coming in. it would not be java joes without andrea mitchell. >> this is where it all began. >> you're off where today? >> i'm going to head to do my show, i'm going to try to catch up with ron paul today. >> with rand, his son. >> two pauls. >> that's right. >> and still ahead this hour, michele bachmann will be our guest here on the set at java joes also terry branstad. >> and tomorrow, we're going to have mitt romney here. >> very cool. oh, good, i hope he brings anne. >> i hope he does too. >> bring anne. bring anne. "morning joe" back in a moment. this is an rc robotic claw.

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born and raised in iowa, only one candidate has been a consistent conservative fighter who fought obama care, fought increasing our debt ceiling, even as other republicans were cutting deals with obama. an expert in tax law who will fight for deep cuts in spending to reduce america's debt, restore our economy, and create real jobs, and she'll never back down. one of our own, michele bachmann for president. >> i'm michele bachmann, and i approve this message. >> she wants to be the iron lady of america. that was michele bachmann's latest campaign ad hitting the iowa air waves today. and here with us now at java joes, congresswoman from minnesota representative michele bachmann. good to have you on the show.

>> good to have you here. your home state. >> my home state. >> you are back. >> i was in your home last time in new york city and it's nice to be here. >> let me just say, i am from the red neck rivera, okay, manhattan is not my home. >> okay. fair enough. that's true. >> though, i am a bit too comfortable on the upper west side. i want to read you something from craig shirley, a very conservative author. good guy, all around good guy. and he has his finger on the pulse of the conservative movement. great writer, joe, happy new year, and craig, i hope you don't mind me reading this on the air -- >> too late now. >> if romney is the nominee, it will be a badly broken party which will feature a divided convention -- divided conventions, lost it in the fall for the gop. what happens if conservative voters wake up the morning after iowa and find that the guy that

gets 24% of the vote solidly wins because seven conservative candidates have divided 76% of the vote? >> it's a big issue and something that people are talking about. and i think that's why people are concerned to make sure that someone who represents the core of the party ends up being the nominee. and the election won't be over as of iowa. it's going to go on. we've bought our plane tickets for south carolina. so we're going on and beyond. and i think that's a big part of this election. who will be the true core conservative and stand up for the party's values? >> let me ask you a question that has puzzled us and we've talked about it on air. you won the iowa straw poll. i said a lot of mean things about you after that happened. >> it was critical -- >> i can't believe that. that can't possibly be true. >> but it was not personal. i was sort of like as i say, sort of like john madden going, come on, they're not ready to play in the nfl. your game has improved

incredibly. this is an extraordinary tough thing to do, run for the president of the united states. and yet the better you have gotten on the stump, the more i think compelling your argument has become, the more trouble you've had in iowa. what's happened over the past three or four months in iowa for you? >> well, i think new candidates come into the race and then the media takes a look at the new candidates, but we've done a junior good job on the ground. that's one thing we'll see tomorrow night at the caucuses. iowa's very different. people come out and go to people's living rooms and stand up and write on a sheet of paper who their candidate is. and we saw in the last couple of weeks we went to all 99 counties across iowa and listened to people. no other candidate did that. it's very heavy retail politics where we're with iowans. i think we're going to bear fruit of that tomorrow night. >> you're still confident? >> yeah. we are. >> one candidate who is seeing the effects of that is rick santorum, who you argue could

rival you in terms of how much one-on-one retail politicking has been done here or surpassed. do you think that's what's making the difference for him? >> well, i think we're going to see that fruit also that you just mentioned. again, nobody did what we've done, and we've been listening to people. people are really upset about the spending. i have the strongest background when it comes to cutting spending. i'm a tax lawyer, i get exactly what has to be done, i'm a private businesswoman, and i think people are seeing in me competence. plus the other issue coming to the fore is national security. no one else has current national security experience in the race except for me. and now iran announcing they have a nuclear fuel rod, this is going to the front like never before. we need someone competent on national security. >> let's go there. how would you handle iran? >> with iran -- >> right now. >> about 180 degrees different than what the current president of the united states is doing. i'd begin a process of more aggressive actions where we

actually move our patriot missiles into the region, into the region and also what i would do is make announcement about the united states posture toward israel. we would begin the process of selling the bunker buster bonds, refueling tankers, jet fighters. we haven't seen the type of deep sanctions that need to be made on iran. also, we'd begin the process of engaging with dissidents in iran. that hasn't been done before either. there's a number of factors that could be done, but this really goes back a number of years and the president's been leading from behind when it comes to iran. >> you know, speaking of tax lawyers, april 15th coming up, willie's lawyer called him, he needs -- >> are you in trouble? >> he needs a good tax lawyer. >> i charge a bundle, willie. >> this is serendipity. >> it's a gamble. >> do you want to tell us? >> it's called an admission. >> it's online gambling. we don't need to get into it here. >> sounds like trouble. sounds like big trouble. >> it's just a big number. >> just between us. i won't go beyond this circle.

>> we'll talk offline. seriously, congresswoman, i know you have problems with mitt romney and his conservatism. but do you think he would make a good president of the united states? >> well, i'm intending to be the next president of the united states. this isn't over. we're not here for a postmortem, i intend to continue to launch our campaign out of iowa. we think we're going to do very well. again, don't underestimate the dynamic. iowa is very different. the caucuses are not primaries. it's very personal. >> i understand, and i respect that and i wouldn't expect you to say anything else. but could you see mitt romney as the president of the united states? would he be a good leader of our country? >> i would be a good leader, and the reason why is -- >> do you hear her? >> i'm asking you a separate question. >> we need to have a candidate who is going to be in the footsteps of ronald reagan, i'm the only one who is -- >> i'll answer it for you. no, it's her, that's her answer.

>> in a fantasy world, though -- >> michael steele, it leads to a bigger question that we've been talking about this morning, that is what if iowa wakes up? what if conservatives across america wake up the morning after? and we've already seen it yesterday, where a lot of people are already saying, wait a second, this is going to be john mccain part ii if we elect romney. again, i want to let everybody know, i'm not personally driving this message, this is a message that's already been driven by conservatives two minutes after the des moines register poll came out, conservatives across america started saying, oh, my god, we've got a guy that's got 24% of the moderate vote who's going to beat a party that's 75% conservative. >> i think that feeling has been beneath the surface up until now. you're beginning to see it emerge more and more. which is why candidates like michele have much more stunt.

south carolina, florida where that's, again, the reasoning behind what the rnc did under my team lead was to give candidates like michele that have the infrastructure and the message to continue on to fight in other states. if they may not be as strong as this one, but the next two they can be. and conservatives are beginning to awaken to that, i believe, and -- >> i think that they are too. and of all years, this is an anti-establishment year. and if you look at mitt romney, he's the epicenter of obamacare. romney care was the foundation for obama care and voters are saying it has a very low percentage of approval, 34% of americans like obama care, that's president obama's signature issue. our nominee can't be on the same stage and effectively agree on the same policy. it won't work. it'll be a distinct advantage for barack obama in the election. >> some analysts say that iowa weeds out candidates. no matter how you do, even if you do poorly, michele bachmann,

do you have the money and infrastructure to go on to new hampshire and south carolina? and do you plan to? >> we do, we've already bought our plane tickets. we're our plane tickets and we're headed to south carolina on wednesday. so we'll be there and we're going the distance. >> i have a quick follow-up on the point you're making. at some point do you and santorum and gingrich and others get together and have a meeting where you just kind of say, come on, huddle up. you know, got this guy over here who is not representative of the 76%. one of us has to take him on. which of us is going to do that and you guys decide before this thing gets too far in the barn that that individual will be the one that you push behind? >> the last one that you want to make that decision are us coming together. it's the people of the united states. that's who you want to make the decision. iowans will make a decision, new hampshireits will make the decision.

i believe the people have the formula for success, and i trust them. >> congresswoman, you said something interesting outside the church where you were yesterday in iowa, and you said i am not a politician which struck people kind of strange considering you sit on the united states congress. >> i've been the most anti-establishment representative in the house because i have taken them on. whether it is my own party or the democrat party i've taken them on because the number one issue we have to deal with right now other than a nuclear iran is out of control spending and that's what i've been taking on, the out-of-control spending. i fought my own party on the payroll tax because that's been continuing to add to the deficit. i didn't go down that line, on budgets and earmarks i've taken on my own party and that's something that we need. someone is willing to take on republicans because republicans aren't right on everything. >> have you ever heard that before? never! never! >> since 1994 and so -- i'm a

proud republican, but sometimes you have to take on your own party. >> same thing here, so the year comes to an end, and you look at what's happened over the past year with this house republican majority that we hear so radical, so extreme, so far right, and yet, at the end of the year another trillion dollars was added to our national debt with the house republican party and you know the constitution, article 1, section 7 says all spending bills start with the house. i've got to ask this question, if you just look at the bottom line and people like you and me, we look at the bottom line on the national debt and big spending and that's how you track success and failure. if you look at the bottom line and see that we added another trillion dollars in debt did speaker boehner fail in bringing down the leadership. >> the leadership begins from

the white house and president obama has punted at every turn on leadership. john boehner did the best with what he had. i don't agree with all of his decisions, but he did the best with what he had. remember, he had the house and the democrats have the senate. by electing me president of the united states because i won't. i will not sign anything other than a balanced budget nor will i present anything other than a balanced budget, and i'll tell you why. i have five biological kids and raised 23 foster children and with all those children i will tell you it is the next generation that i worry about. that's my number one demographic is 18 to 29-year-olds because i think what they see in me is i really do care about them. i really do care about the next generation. they're paying the tab for the very big party that we're having. you hit the nail on the head. $1 trillion more in debt? they're paying for it and the party's over by the time they have to get a second or third job to pay their tax bill.

i'll stop the current party in washington, d.c., that's why i've taken on my own party on issue after issue because it has to be a completely different change. that's whiee been the anti-establishment trying to fight the system. >> think about this. you always -- we always talk about -- big spending. i talk about deficits and i talk about that. think about this fact, for the first 200 years the united states of america amassed $1 trillion in debt. over 300 years. we've accumulated $1 trillion every year for the past three years. the numbers don't add up. >> that's barack obama's legacy. that's his legacy. >> with all due respect, but i have to say -- his is by a factor of ten by george bush. $160 billion deficit in 2007 and $1.6 trillion this last year by

a factor of ten. >> they always do. they always say, oh, you've grown so much. no, i'm just as -- i've always been. >> i have been surprised every step of the way. >> congresswoman, good luck. >> can't wait to see you in south carolina. >> we'll be right back. >> you're a traffic cop! you're a traffic cop! why do we have aflac... aflac... and major medical? major medical, boyyyy! [ beatboxing ] ♪ i help pay the doctor ♪ ain't that enough for you? ♪ there are things major medical doesn't do. aflac! pays cash so we don't have to fret. [ together ] ♪ something families should get ♪ ♪ like a safety net ♪ even helps pay deductibles, so cover your back, get... ♪ a-a-a-a-a-a-a-aflac! [ male announcer ] help protect your family at aflac.com. [ beatboxing ]

everything up to this point has been prelude to this. chris matthews joins us next at java joe's and steve forbes,'s man who knows iowa pretty darn well. we'll be right back on "morning joe." ♪ i am you and you are me. we've got to stand up if we're going to be free. [ susan ] we've got to stand up... ♪ if we're gonna be free [ brian ] if you want it... [ lindsey ] you got it. [ derrick ] i believe. i believe. [ susan ] i believe. i am strong. i finally lost weight.

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part of the question he has to ask himself. he is assuming the american people are stupid. i don't think the american people are stupid. >> they're reactioning to this. >> i'm sure within a few weeks will know this is his pack. >> he took it from the 30s down to the teens. >> of course, he did. >> what does he do in 50 states? >> all i did some other conservatives emerged and didn't help romney at all. he didn't get rid of me. he just slowed me down. >> welcome back to "morning joe" live at java joe's. >> that's the fascinating thing about newt gingrich where he's critical, but at the same time, some of these other candidates seem to have their feet in cement. newt can go back and forth with chris matthews and a lot of politicians can't. i thought that was a fascinating moment on the campaign trail.

>> he is not afraid of anyone that gets in his face. we'll come right back. he's in it to play. joining us now, speaking of chris matthews, the host of "m sshs "msnbc's hard ball." it's a great read. >> we have editor in chief of forbes media, former republican presidential candidate steve forbes and supporter of rick perry's presidential campaign. >> i'm looking at this clip of you and newt gingrich, and as i look at it i realize why so many conservatives will still come up to me and say he's the guy i want to win because he can take on barack obama and get in his face. i thought that was a fascinating exchange. >> he enjoys it. >> he's got to come back. >> he basically showed his weaponry yesterday. he has to go after newt gingrich -- i'm sorry, he'll go after mitt romney on abortion. he will nail him as a

pro-abortion candidate, he just showed his weaponry yesterday. he will go after what he was doing and he started yesterday doing it up in new hampshire and he'll go for the kill again. he's like freddy krueger. he keeps coming back. he will not die and there will be a sequel. >> you could say he's like rocky. >> freddy krueger! >> well, you know, there are a lot of republicans that think newt is a tough guy. >> he's a tough guy. >> rocky is a tough guy. >> he's not a quitter, and i think what's going on is this terrible thing going in iowa which is a masquerade, as i said yesterday and newt certainly agreed with me. you turn on the tv and there's an ad destroying newt ding rich. it's paid for by restore our future which is a group that's associated favorably with mitt romney. he's out there reciting the

lyrics to "america the beautiful." somebody said the nastier his ads get the more lofty he gets in person. >> sounds like a good strategy. >> it is, but it's a democracy. is it a chance to really campaign? i agree with newt about this. modern campaigning has become deceptive now. what you see is not what you get. i was with governor romney the other day, and he was going after president obama saying he was marie antoinet. i said can you say let them eat cake in french, and he said i can, but i won't. >> yes, i'm sophisticated and yes i'm a moderate, and i'm one of the guys that can speak french like john kerry, but i'm not going tdo it because i'm playing to the yahoos. >> what is he supposed to do, chris? >> let me ask you this. this is about pretending he's a yahoo. he's a very sophisticated east

coast guy. >> if you go in deep on the des moines register poll. >> yeah. >> and you look at the cross tabs, after all this time we're hearing that he can't win evangelical voters, actually, mitt romney comes in second among iowa evangelical voters right behind rick santorum. >> he only comes in first on one issue, elect ability and that tells a lot. i was making a list. why do people want romney? there are centrist republicans in the state you don't hear from and regular middle of the rod people and secondly, they think he can win and they really want to win, and i think also they seem to like the fact that he's ran before. it's the old republican. it's his turn. that's strong for the republican party. you come back and win. >> steve forbes, you're supporting rick perry, governor from texas, why? ? i've known him for ten years.

i first got to know him when he reformed the cesspool of the legal system they had in texas and sent the trial lawyers over to oklahoma. so that was a good thing. he's been good on fiscal issues, tax issues, spending issues. he's got the right convictions and he's got the right proposal on the flat tax and he's demonstrated in texas the ability to get things done, and that, i think, will get things done. >> he's got a great record on jobs and a great conservative record and his presidential campaign most would say has been a disaster up to this point. why? >> he, merged early and had mishaps and one of the things that happens whether it's in politics or business or whatever you're going to get a curveball and sometimes it's your fault and sometimes it's circumstances and the key thing people ultimately look for is how do you respond when you get hit hard? i think he showed grace and good humor especially after that

debate and picked himself up and went out there and campaigned hard and at the end of the day he'll do very, very well. he's demonstrated he can take the hit, but you have to do it when you'll go up against barack obama. rick santorum hasn't been vetted yet. >> it's about to happen. >> it's a key role player and not potentially in the passage of obama care. he got reelected and gives true conservative in the primary and he supported specter against the conservative and specter provided the vote for obama care so those things will come out. >> i want to talk about rick perry stumbling and we had mechelle bachmann who stumbled in the past, but michele bachmann has gotten better on the stump. all of the candidates have gotten better. >> steve forbes can talk about just how difficult it is to run

for president of the united states, and unless you've done it you can't understand it. >> it's an obstacle course and before i respond, i am so wildly impressed that chris has a notebook, his professional notebook and he's clinging to every word and he's taking notes. >> he had an ipad. >> like these guys are. >> to your point, joe, the gingrich clip that we showed -- chris, that's proof positive of what you just said. he's been there before. he's like an old major league pitcher who has been cut, released, waived by various teams and here he is still with us. still, no matter what you think of him, at the top of his game in terms of the back and forth. he's done it before. >> he's visually unflappable. >> let's go to the convention center and talk to another man -- >> he's incredibly unflappable.

you have to be unflappable this year if you're a hurricanes fan and we go to nbc news chief white house correspondent political director and host of "the daily rundown" chuck todd. let's start with the state of affairs in this state, the des moines register poll came out and showed quite a few things. what's your biggest takeaway from it? >> the -- how committed the santorum supporters are. we saw it in our poll and it's only getting more so in the des moines register poll. you know the santorum folks are showing up. if this were a primary, joe, i think we know this and there were 12 hours of voting, there are a lot of casual republican voters who would put mitt romney over the top and he'd win by ten points and that's not what this is and you're seeing this idea of a coalescing by the conservatives out here who want to keep their -- don't forget, there is an incentive of the conservative activist community in iowa to make sure there are still power flares and they

don't want to splinter their vote and i think you could see this movement and that could benefit that, if this is a caucus turnout, then you might say santorum might have an edge over romney. >> i guess i'm with him. i'll probably be for him for all of the reasons chris talked about. they feel that it's his turn and all of these thing, but they weren't sure if they were caucusing. >> let me ask you this, chuck. let's look at the trends of the des moines register poll for the last two days. you see rick santorum shoot up, but there's another fascinating trend and that is ron paul's support seems to take a precipitous drop. do you sense that is happening in iowa right now that ron paul has had his moment and now he is sliding down just like so many of the others have before? >> i do think it got capped and i think all of the attacks on paul on his foreign policy,

which by the way, when you go to paul events, joe, the reason they tell you, the number one reason they tell you why they're with paul is because of his antinon-interventionist foreign policy. they have war fatigue. that's why they're with them, but i do think the attacks pulled away some of the small government libertarian types who are not as antiinterventionist on the foreign policy as ron paul is, and i think that's what you've seen is those attacks worked to stop paul from growing. he's got a committed band of supporters and a bunch of independents and democrats show up. you see how he gets to 21 or 22. i can't figure out how he would get closer to 30 which is what he would need to win. >> what do you make of ron paul's role? >> i agree completely. the anti-war vote is war fatigue, and that's what i've

been using. >> a lot of republicans have it. they won't admit it. >> you won't hear anyone saying i'm a big fan of ws because he's identified with one thing, the iraq war and the one issue has run its course. i do think that romney wins if santorum wins. what romney has been doing and this goes back to historical british foreign approximately see. don't let anyone dominate europe. he doesn't want any conservative to dominate conservatives around him. all we have to do is make sure newt doesn't come back and by santorum winning, rm me wins. he has to keep the conservatives divided for a couple of months now and he dominates, he wins. >> i was going to ask steve off of what chris was just talking about and what chuck alluded to. how frustrating it is -- must it be for you backing governor perry to see santorum, to see whoever, shoot to the top and drop back and whatever and he

stays flat and not flat tax. he stays flat. >> it's coming up a little bit, but the thing that will happen now is because the delegates are proportional and no one will get a knockout blow and super tuesday is what it was four years ago, so when they all go through their vetting and santorum will not go through the hazing process. when that process is done, ink the support is going to wane and the people coalesced around the conservative and perry will be the one to say i've got the executive experience. i've been down and now i'm up again. i've got the organization which newt does not and that will carry him through. iowans will not be the early settlers of who will be the nomination. >> how do they get beyond the fact that he's had the debate debacles that have pulled him down. the only thing he has going is these ads that sell him, but people are smart. viewers are smart. >> no, no, no. he has a ten-year record on as governor of one of the largest

states in america. that is something a lot of the can ats don't have. we've also been very tough on rick perry, but he's got a ten-year record that he can put behind. >> yeah, but he's not doing very well right now. >> no, he's not. >> and he's actually sucking wind. he really is. >> he's got all of the tickets to win this thing. he's southern. he's an executive. he's a conservative and he's a protestant and he fits the perfect card for a candidate to run against barack obama to win the nomination and in television and this media has been incredibly powerful, not only in the debates and now in the tv advertising. what drives newt crazy is he's won on tv and he's getting croaked on tv and he's won by being there on the stage. he's getting killed by the use of money on tv. on. >> 30-second ads. >> perry can do it as well, but how do you outspend mitt romney? >> you don't have to have a spender. we have a six-person primary to who will be the non-romney and

who will be the conservative. after iowa and new hampshire, it narrows. after south carolina it narrows and it will come to a two-man race and that's where rick perry emerges again. you have the house split four or five ways. it's not going to last. >> so, chuck, let's do a quick report card right now on where you sense the campaigns are and we'll shoot through them one after another. rick perry, how's he doing? >> i just sat down with him for five or six minutes and we'll have the whole interview on "daily rundown" and i want to back up something steve forbes said. he's legislate the bitterness show. michele bachmann let the bitterness show. one thing about rick perry, he doesn't have bitterness. he seems to be the happy warrior here and that might be worth something for iowa. >> ron paul. do you sense ron paul's candidacy is slipping a bit in iowa? >> i think it's back to where we all thought he would be. he's got this devoted band and he can overperform in iowa

because it's a cac us process, but it's hard to see how he grows. he doesn't have any room to grow. high floor, low ceiling. >> what about mechelle bachmann? what if michele bachmann doesn't have a strong showing in iowa? how does she go forward to south carolina? >> she's the one. she and newt are the two candidates will lose support on their polls. i don't know how she goes forward. financially, it's tough in the crosshairs. and newt gingrich has the future een if he gets knock around in iowa does he have a shot in south carolina and florida. >> he can't skip new hampshire like everybody else is doing or the union leader will just filet him because they put themselves on the line there. i don't know -- look, i would

never count newt out and i think he would stay in this race longer than maybe his resources would allow. >> interesting. chuck todd. >> the union leader was brought up. how do you think thees teamed editor and publisher, how do you think joe would respond? >> i'm not going new hampshire after all? >> you might see another endorsement if he decides not to go to new hampshire. they might pull back their endorsement. i don't think that will happen, but it forces him to play that major card if he doesn't go to new hampshire. >> i think newt will use the new hampshire debates on the other network, and the one on nbc right before the primary next week to build himself for south carolina. he's use the debates in new hampshire. >> that is fascinating. >> steve forbes, thank you so much. nice to see you again. chris, we'll see you in a bit. up, in also joining us the moderator of "meet the press." >> no tie. >> also coming up, former press

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you're back in 2008 when running for the presidency and you were singing a different tune and this was your press release and you said governor romney will stand up for the conservative principles that we hold dear. >> i was saying it relative to john mccain and that's what i meant then. >> does he have conservative values? >> of course, everybody on that

stage that is in these debates has conservative values vis-a-vis president obama and generally it reflects the republican party. the question is are those values one that you can trust when they become president of the united states? >> all right. welcome back to "morning joe" live at java joe's, and i just want to point out the lady in the red hat. she's 92 years old. she's one of 17 kids and she was a world war ii army nurse. we're talking about you! we're talking about you. >> thank you for coming! we appreciate it. >> every morning at 5:00 a.m. iowa time she's watching "morning joe." thank you so much. it's the secret to a long, healthy life, there you go. >> with us now we have the moderator of "meet the press" david gregory, former press secretary to house speaker newt gingrich and now the publisher

-- what was your take yesterday in the "meet the press" interview. he'll answer the questions that you ask him and he'll engage. i think a problem for him is this endorsement of romney. you know, because he endorsed it in 2008 and, you know, he can say it was relative to john mccain, some of the takeaway is that, look, in washington, we make political calculations and that's just how business is done. i didn't really mean it. >> but he went out of his way in that endorsement in 2008. he stands up for the conservative principles that we hold dear. it wasn't a throwaway line and it smacks a bit of what with washington is all about. >> what's so fascinating about this, chris matthews, you see it every four years. you have for a long time, people forget in january 2012 that in

mid-january of 2008 there was a panic among conservatives and mitt romney was the conservative vessel for rick santorum, for rush limbaugh, for sean hannity, for laura ingram, for every conservative talk show, and they were destroying john mccain and mitt romney, you would have thought was ronald reagan's lost child. >> i had forgotten that. every day -- just because they wanted to beat john mccain. >> and now he is almost a secret moderate. >> he's the candidate. >> interesting. >> i asked him the other day can you say let them eat cake in french. he said i can, but i won't. he's sending an interesting signal to the voters saying you know i was a moderate in massachusetts. i'm no right winger. when i hear everybody and all kinds of people in washington and here, i'm not afraid of mitt

romney. i don't fear him as president. that is a very strong argument for a guy up against barack obama. he becomes a guy who is an alternative obama -- >> he's got a pretty strong middle class message. you ask him, what do you do about the fact that you talk about the program. ? what does the republican do about the fact that middle-class wages have steadily gone down and something that you talk a lot about in the program. here, mitt romney understands if he goes against obama and the vision to protect the middle class and he's got more of that attitude than he does, let them eat cake, but he is more conservative now particularly on fiscal issues and he's on the record ballot and talking about a balanced budget early in this process. rich galen, you've known newt gingrich for a very long time. there's just something. i saw the back and forth. there's chris matthews and newt

yesterday. >> the fight is not -- is that a good analogy? >> i suspect that newt may have a third, maybe even fourth act. >> when your the moderator of "meet the press" you get that cup. when you're not. >> oh, that's terrible! >> he carries around tea cups. it's all right. >> newt -- one of newt's longstanding kind of message is that most people fail at the things they try to do because they give up too quickly. they don't have the perseverance to work their way through the tough part. if you go back to 1994, we first met in 1982 and we didn't know what year it was going to be and he was plotting 1994 when i was back at the congressional campaign committee as press secretary over there, so this is part of what he does. you don't always agree with it and that's not always as pol issued as you wish he might be, but he'll have the debate.

that's the point. he wants to attack romney and wants to put the moderate label on and wants the advantage of the debate to remind people and he talked to voters and whether they watched it on tv and they want to see the debate between the republican and president obama. gingrich will try to do this in south carolina. that's why if romney can win here and not just win with 25%, that's important because right now he's running against a constellation of conservatives and not one person. >> newt will be loaded -- next sunday morning before new hampshire, he has to win that morning. he has to -- force south carolina. he's not going beat him in fachl, but if he comes out as the guy who sent the message to south carolina. i'm the guy that can take this guy. i think it will be your show. nobody else is going after mitt romney. that's one of the fascinating theme about this race, the front-runner and the presumed nominee is the only one that is

unscathed. all of the conservatives are tearing each other to shreds. mitt is just sailing through. he's being torn to shreds and you brought it up in the last segment that he's competing against mitt romney's message and he's being savaged. i would counter that with the question is there anything in these attack ads that is untrue? >> i think it's the tone. the tone. if you go back to your hotel room you'll feel this thing out here. "entertainment tonight" all these shows have these ads, restore our future ads and they're relentlessly showing newt gingrich saying i made a mistake. i made the mistake. they're not the worst ads in the world, but they're tonal like this guy has a problem. i think he'll hit him in the solar plexus and on his show, and we'll talk about it afterward and i think he'll nail him as a pro abortion and that will kill them in south carolina. ? it looks like mitt romney is seeing een with newt gingrich

down understands he's the candidate they have to kill because they're still going after him. they're not going after santorum. >> they're buying ads for santorum. >> they have to kill newt gingrich because they fear him the most. >> because he's the guy that will keep coming and coming and coming. >> so he is freddy krueger. >> he really is. >> you could say rocky. >> no, it's true. >> santorum will never be the nominee. i just don't think so. he appeals to two. it's a very strong appeal, but a little bit -- i don't want to compare him to ron paul in terms of their positions, but in terms of who they appeal to, it's a fairly narrow slice of the electorate. >> there's only one guy that can beat mitt romney, right? it's newt gingrich. >> look at the way they reacted so quickly and so strongly as soon as newt began to rise. they didn't do that with bachmann and they didn't do that with cain. >> he rose up in a way that was different than the others and he was a heavy weight debater and

that was it, but he's also, some of the deficiencies showed up very fast. >> who else can beat him? >> no, i agree. rick perry could possibly catch fire. i just don't see that happening because of his debate performances. i think you're right. i think new hampshire -- if you want that pretty big in south carolina if you can't do the slam dunk here and perry's ads are formidable here and you have santorum in the mix and you have ron paul in here taking up room. >> is there one point that you're making? >> if i'm mitt romney and i'm looking that the and i'm saying i'm good with anybody winning iowa, except newt. if newt wins iowa that's an existential threat to my campaign, and i may not recover from that. >> because as you know chris and rich, you know, you guys, you were in the house in '79. in '79 when newt came there.

he's been there a long time. the newt brand is strong in the republican party. >> this is why turnout matters and they were talking about it on the program, the republican party chair, if social conservatives and evangelicals are down in term of the total percentage of voters who come out to caucus, if you get more independents and more moderates. i just arrived in des moines and i talked to a woman who said i'll caucus for romney and i don't want iowa to get a bad name. romney was not supposed to come in here and win. >> it doesn't take much to win here. huckabee won with 34% of the vote four years ago. >> let's just put this out here right now because i've been hearing for four years now that mitt romney can't win the gop nomination because evangelicals don't like mormons. on super tuesday mitt basically tied mccain and -- mccain and huckabee among evangelicals. the latest poll in iowa were

evangelicals are considered to be the most conservative, chris, he comes in second place behind rick santorum. >> evangelicals are willing to vote for romney. >> who is going for the kill here? ? he's a wounded tiger, but he'll come out. you watch. >> david, are you surprised that romney's doing well with evangelicals here? >> a little bit, but i still think there's a bigger economic message that's overlaying, they think is bigger than some of these social issues. >> david gregory, rich galen, thank you. chris matthew, thank you very much. >> rich, the next time you come on we'll get. >> chris matthew, the book is "jack jakennedy." you'll be back tomorrow at java joe's? we'll keep the coffee warm for you. coming up, joe, i'd love you to come back. >> i'll keep the coffee warm for you. >> leave the front light on.

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welcome to 2012. meteorologist nice shot there

from the top of 30 rock over lower manhattan. temperatures in iowa will be the only, we're looking at a cold morning out there today ask tomorrow will be the same, but it is sunny and there will not be any rain to deal with. here's tomorrow's forecast that looks pretty nice. windchill will be in the teens and by tomorrow no big deal. areas of new england, temperatures are going to plunge over the next 24 hours and it's only going to get old coer from here. all of the cold air in iowa will be our way as we go throughout tuesday and into wednesday. forecast also, maybe a little bit of show showers around chicago and the southern half of the country is cooler and there are no big snowstorms head our way. governor terry branstad joins us live at java joe's when we come back. [ male announcer ] to the 5:00 a.m. scholar.

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♪ what do you think of when you think of your mom? >> first, i will tell you every time we see christmas cards -- excuse me -- it comes in directly from dealing -- from dealing with, you know, the real problems of real people in my family, so it's not a theory. it's, in fact, my mother. >> with us now, we have got the republican governor of iowa,

governor terry branstad, and governor, i have to say you've got some people out there. >> they like you! >> the best governor in the nation -- >> the best state in the nation. >> we've got to be the healthiest state in the nation, too. we also had a lady stand up and say, hey, mika i came 200 miles to see you. i wouldn't go across the street for scarborough. >> we have people who were driving since 2:00 this morning. very exciting. so, governor, we want to talk about and we had the historical society if iowa should still be first. i think the emergence of rick santorum at the end of the campaign validates why iowa matters, why iowa should be first, if this were in a begger state like new york or california, 30-second ads would

rule the day. rick santorum, mike huckabee prove again organization matters. >> right. well, rick santorum to his credit went to all 99 counties. he worked methodically and built a statewide organization and now we're seeing that pay off as we get to the final days of this campaign. mitt romney, i think, learned a lesson that you can't ignore iowa too long and he's coming here and he's working too long and he's had a bus tour and of course, the other front-runner is congressman ron paul, and he's continued to build on his organization. he's worked the state very hard. so personal appearances are still important. debates are important, social media is important, but you still can't beat personal appearances like java joe's and going all over the state of iowa and whether it's a ranch or cafe or restaurant or meeting with people in their businesses.

iowans care. they want to know who can turn this country around and we recognize obama is going in the wrong direction and increasing by a trillion dollars a year. we need new leadership. >> on that note since you're going right out to the president, let's go right out to this republican field. who can really, truly take on that because you have a lot of people and analysts included saying this is a weak field at this stage in the game. it's very late to be this weak. >> i think it's just the opposite. when you look at how many people have become the front runner and iowans are looking at the best candidate, nobody's perfect. >> i think so, and i think the president is very weak and frankly, this state which launched obama can sink obama in the general election as well as nominating a republican candidate. ? i'm skeptical. not to pre-judge your result, but if mitt romney won the cac

uses here and went into new hampshire, do you think the conservative movement would step up nationally and say wait a not in, we need to rally around a single person to have a contest against mitt romney? >> well, i don't know. i think conservatives recognize that we cannot afford to continue to have obama, and i think they'll rally behind the republican nominee, and i think that i want to do all i can come this state to unite our party, to get the people of iowa voting for the kind of change we need. we were promised that there would be a consensus builder and instead the president spends his time attacking business people and the entrepreneurs that we need to invest -- >> you have an endorsement. you endorsed the winner for president. >> i will probably wait a little while, but i want to endorse the strongest candidate and the one i think has the best chance of uniting the party and wing the presidency. >> governor, i asked you before when we were off air what you

thought about turnout for this caucus. talk about -- you think it will be very big and explain how it can be if everybody says, what a weak field, et cetera, et cetera, you think there will be a huge turnout, why do you think it will be huge if the field is so weak. i think it will be huge because of the interest involved in this campaign. the turnouts for the candidates in the closing weeks of this campaign have been large, and i think iowans and americans want a change. they recognize the country's going in the wrong direction. we can't afford four more years. we don't want to be where europe is today and we'll tlb in a few years if we don't bring this federal deficit under control and focus bringing back the private economy in this country. >> governor, i'm just going to throw you a softball, and i think it's an important softball. why does iowa matter? why does iowa deserve to be first? >> iowa matters because real people take it very seriously,

and because this is an opportunity for somebody without a lot of resources to come out here, meet real people and show that they have the vision and the plan to lead this nation. america needs leadership and we need to have the strongest leader and we can't afford more more years of president obama. >> governor branstad. >> okay. on tomorrow's show here at java joe's's republican presidential candidate mitt romney. i'm working on ann. i'm working on her. congressman steve king, done y wasserman schultz and tom brokaw. we'll be right back on "morning joe." we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] for sore muscles use new bengay cold therapy,

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♪ ♪ -- 1950s to 2011. remember last week going after newt genning rich about his disorganization and the inability to get on the ballot in virginia dropped a lucille ball reference. >> what do you think of speaker gingrich not getting enough on the ballot?

>> you know, i think you can compare that to pearl harbor. i think it's more like lucille ball at the chocolate factory. so, i mean, you've got to get it organized. >> wow! lucille ball and the chocolate factory. that's going back almost 60 years and now just yesterday dropped some kim kardashian on us. >> you know, i've been being looking at some video clips on youtube of president obama and then candidate obama going through iowa making promises, and i think the gap between his promises and his performance is the largest i've seen -- well, since the kardashian wedding and the promise of 'til death do we part. >> that is range in a presidential candidate. i just like the idea of mitt romney watching the kardashian. keeping up with the kardashian.

we'll be right back. i'm meteorologist bill karins with a look at your business travel forecast. if you're near the great lakes there's a good chance you're seeing snow and heavy snow as the cold air moves in, the coldest air of the season. areas like washington, new york, and d.c., get ready, it will be windy today. that cold air arrives late tonight into tomorrow. temperatures in areas like denver, still not too bad in the west. enjoy.

welcome back to "morning joe." it's time to talk about what we learned at java joe's! >> amy, you make a mean latte.

about six of them i also learned that michele bachmann would not even consider the possibility that mitt romney might be the president of the united states. >> i learned that i have to deal with the culture shock of being a snarly, cynical guy from the east coast to come here where people are so unbelievably nice! >> you being learn a thing or two. >> michele bachmann's personality on this show comes out more than any other show she does, funny, engaging, sparkling. >> very natural. >> unless theria a stick of butter on it. >> fundamental dividing run between joe scarborough and mark halpern. he tries to shut this process down. >> i love it. i love it. >> you're smarter than you look. what did you learn? >> i was going to talk about freddy krueger. i'm just going to thank everybody including 92-year-ol