hall type meetings, and done all 99 counties, did that awhile ago. a lot of that is paying off. >> what he says about his late surge in the polls and ron paul as commander in chief. meanwhile, ron paul is back on the campaign trail today with his son, the kentucky senator. after taking off to texas for the weekend. plus, michele bachmann calls herself america's iron lady. >> born and raised in iowa, only one candidate has been a consistent conservative fighter who fought obama care. fought increasing our debt ceiling even as other republicans were cutting deals with obama. >> and just now on the trail, newt gingrich got a jump on his concession speech. >> i don't think i'm going to win. >> good day. i'm andrea mitchell live from des moines, iowa with the daily fix today. i'm joined by the woman of the hour, ann seltzer with the best

track record for predicting the unpredictable. and in washington, chris sa little za. ann, the most surprising thing about your results was santorum was in third place but in the last two days of your polling when you were in the field, the momentum was all in the direction of santorum actually being neck and neck with mitt romney. >> exactly. it's almost as if we had two polls as far as rick santorum was concerned. the first two days he hung in at 10, he had been in just single digits. the second two days he's at 20 and doubled his support in a very short period of time and really the early polling days didn't reflect what ended up happening. >> and what will ended up happening was certainly timed right after the cnn poll came out on wednesday showing that he was moving up and that he could be more electable. and then our poll on friday. you were still in the field. so is it the electability, the

fact that he might be viable and not just a fringe candidate that might be beginning to persuade people? >> i think that iowans have really been torn between the candidate that they could support who would send a message and a candidate that they could support who would win. and i think as they've had that tension, there's been different candidates come and go. santorum may be the one that sort of combines both of those. and as soon as he looked like he was viable, that was sort of became a magnet and he brought more people in. that's certainly applausable. >> chris cillizza, you've been watching this. we know rick santorum hasn't had the money, the advertising, he has not been able to go negative the way the super pacs on behalf of mitt romney and others have gone negative. what do you think in his message right be resonating with voters? >> well, i think it's he's the last credible guy standing number one and he's pretty consistent andrea. i think the other thing is, in some ways this is a throwback. i wrote a couple weeks ago, is

organization overrated? we had newt gingrich at the top of the polls in iowa even though he had almost no organization. santorum suggests maybe the old shoe leather that you associate with what you have to do in places like iowa and new hampshire is working. no candidate has worked iowa more traditionally than rick santorum. i think ann's point is the exactly right. people liked him but they didn't want to throw their vote away with santorum. when he started to look like, wait a minute, gingrich is falling. we don't want to be with romney, maybe this santorum guy, once he crested that kind of viability benchmark, then a lot of the people who had met him and liked him said we're going to be with him. i think it's a testament that doing things the traditional way has paid off for him. >> and what about the undecided voters? this is a key fact. the number of undecideds late in the day. >> i know it looks like there's

a lot of undecideds. >> they have to the opportunity to go to the caucus and they can decide in the middle of the caucus, this is a caucus, not a primary, but the significance, who do you think are the undecided voters? what are your internals telling you? >> keep in mind these are people, the 41% that people are citing, they're saying they could still be persuaded to vote for somebody else. there's no difference among the three top runners in terms of the proportion of supporters who said they cos still change their mind. so that's just the nature of the beast that is the caucuses. they're going to go and sit with their neighbors and hear about each candidate. then they're going to be asked to decide. there's no real advantage to locking in too early. if you haven't been asked to by a strong campaign organization, then that leaves people sort of free to make a late decision. >> but in the polling, is there a candidate who has more commitment? >> well, one of the things that we find is we include people in our poll whether they are definitely going to caucus or probably going to caucus. this is where santorum breaks

out. that is, three out of four of his supporters are definite caucus attenders. it's more like 57, 58 they're republicans. it's about 15 to 20% who will be independents. we included them in our poll. they tend to be ron paul supporters but romney does reasonably well with them swell. >> could divide between romney and paul. ron paul obviously the independent libertarian angry at washington voter.

mitt romney more kren sift and not as committed to social issues. >> we haven't talked about the drama in our poll for ron paul. he started on our first day with 29%. he was the clear leader in our poll. by day four in the field, he was at 16. he had dropped 13 percentage points in four days. so while we saw this ron paul surge it appeared to crest the first day we were in the field. so we saw him declining. rick santorum rising. you know, this was a dramatic thing i couldn't talk about. now it's out. >> ann seltzer, fascinating numbers. chris cillizza we've never seen anything this volatile. gallup is saying there have been seven front-runners in this race. we'll talk more about that later in the show. thanks, chris. rick santorum's message is you cannot buy iowa. his low budget, grassroots operation seems to be paying off with this last minute surge. i caught up with him over the weekend at the public library in

indianol indianola. and we'll have the audio fixed in a moment. we'll be right back. ron paul back in iowa today with his son, senator rand paul. why did he take the holiday weekend off? and still ahead, who is the bum steer of the campaign? one clue, it is the headline from texas monthly. send me your thoughts on facebook and at twitter @ mitchell reports. this is "andrea mitchell reports" live in des moines, iowa only on msnbc. i had enough of feeling embarrassed about my skin. [ designer ] enough of just covering up my moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. i decided enough is enough. ♪ [ spa lady ] i started enbrel. it's clinically proven to provide clearer skin. [ rv guy ] enbrel may not work for everyone -- and may not clear you completely, but for many, it gets skin clearer fast, within 2 months, and keeps it clearer up to 9 months.

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there's energy and it's overflowing and it's big and it's coming tomorrow. we're going to win. iowa tomorrow. >> that was senator rand paul just a short time ago campaigning for his father in des moines. in the latest des moines register poll as we've been reporting, ron paul is narrowly trailing mitt romney. he is narrowly training in the overall poll but in the last couple of days, he declined and rick santorum surged. this almost collapse of the ron paul support in the final days of the register poll. to what do you attribute it? how do you resolve it and combat it. >> polls go up, polls go down. it was a small sample. our tracking has very consistent with the overall des moines register people. ppp who is known to poll very accurately came out last night with ron actually with a slight lead. one thing that is accurate is this is a tight race. all the campaigns have to be on their best.

that's why we're cranking tv efforts. our ground game is superb. we're working very hard and pushing for a top finish. >> jesse, if you're working hard, why did the candidate take the weekend off? >> the last thing i think iowans needed was to be poked by another politician on holiday. ron spent about 36 hours with his family and came back just early this morning. >> the polling as you point out, polling does go up and down but the des moines register poll has been the gold standard of iowa polling. according to ann seltzer who was just here people are beginning to feel ron paul can't go the distance, and they're getting more serious about wanting to choose someone who can go up against barack obama. >> that's why they should support ron paul. he can go the distance. we're very, very strong in new hampshire, polling second place. we have organizations working very hard in 12 additional states. we're the only candidate outside of mitt romney that has a level of organization and fund-raising capacity.

plus, ron is the strongest candidate against barack obama because of his ability to undermine barack obama's base and bring independents in. ron paul wins independents. he wins conservatives. he can put together the winning coalition. >> i want to play one of your ads that's been very much noticed here in iowa. let's play it. >> department of education, gone. interior, energy, hud, commerce, gone. brewer crates, that's how ron paul votes. want to drain the swamp, ron paul, do it. >> a lot of experts campaign, experts in both parties say that is one of the most effective political ads they've even in a long time. it does counter intuitive, doesn't seem like the ron paul image, pretty graphic, hard hitting. what went into the calculation of that kind of ad? seve wanted to cut through the noise. there's a lot up here right now, rick perry spending 5 maryland, candidates on the air with big numbers. we're able to put up big numbers

ourselves but we wanted to cut through the noise and capture people. we think we succeeded. very proud of that ad. >> you succeeded in getting a lot of attention. jesse benton, thank you so much. good luck on the campaign trail. and can rick perry survive a bad loss in tomorrow's losses? texas monthly has rendered its verdict already on the governor even before any votes are cast. in the magazine's newest issue, it chooses perry as their words "bum steer of the year. jake joins me now. why did you come up with this verdict on rick perry because it's pretty tough. >> it is tough. what this wases in response to was the oops heard around the world, the flub at michigan debate which to us really solidified him as our bum steer of the year that we give to the person who has stepped in it the most. >> and rick perry sat down with chuck todd earlier today, and

talked about whether or not he's staying in the race no matter what happens here. let's watch. >> i'm the only one of the social conservatives and the fiscal conservatives that are running that actually has the ability to raise the money, to have the organization, to run through and finish the primary process. >> he does have a point. he has a lot of money available to him through texas. let's say he can get through new hampshire, get through those two debates coming up this coming week. >> right. >> he then goes south to south carolina, florida. he's got a fire wall there, doesn't he? >> that's absolutely right. i certainly don't think anybody should be counting the governor out. our giving him the bum steer of the year was a recognition of that particular gaffe that he had at that michigan debate which i believe will go down as probably the greatest presidential debate gaffe in history. i mean, admiral stockdale, gerald ford, michael dukakis, nothing comes close. but in a funny way that oops

moment was kind of the turn around moment for the perry campaign. you saw there was almost widespread acclaim for the way his campaign handled the damage control and bounced back. since then, there really has been a gradual recovery and regaining of stride and momentum. he's had this 44-city bus tour in iowa that's gone pretty well and spending a lot of money on the airwaves and seen about a five-point bounce in the polls as a result of that in iowa. i don't think it's time to count him out. the path ahead is tough sledding. what you just said is all true. but at the end of the day, he may have mort tally wounded himself in these first three months when he's really had trouble appearing to have a competent campaign. >> of course, expectations are so low for him in the new hampshire debates coming up this weekend and the "meet the press" face-off debate on sunday, that if he does well, reasonably well in that debate, it could let him slide through, assuming he gets out of iowa, gets a ticket, one of the tickets out of iowa.

the other point is there's been some reporting politico in particular, background sources nobody on the record but incredibility amount of campaign infighting. what's the fact check on that and how is that affecting his ability to go on when you've got these two factions, the texas loyalists, the washington consultants who came in and they are just trashing each other? >> right. and you know, the perry campaign has reacted pretty strongly saying that they don't buy any of that. i -- that rings true with some of the things that i have heard. i think there has been some trouble within that campaign as they've tried to right the ship. and in a certain way, i think it points to one of the stumbling blocks that the campaign really has flounterred on. that was a kind of overconfidence coming into the race when they did. they were still riding a wave of a triumphant and rather brilliant 2010 gubernatorial

campaign in which they had utterly trounced a well liked senator, kay bailey hutchison for governor. i think they came into the race when is they did in august very late thinking that they would be able to handle the rest of the republican field the way that they had handled kay bailey hutchison. they found out that that was not the case. >> clearly not. jake silver stein, thank you very much from texas monthly. with only one day to go, mitt romney brushes off the republican competition taking aim squarely at president obama. the politico briefing next right here on "andrea mitchell reports" live from iowa on msnbc. this is an rc robotic claw.

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you can see senator john thune flouncing him and romney's wife ann and four out of their five son are with him. he is for the most letting his superpac hammer opponents while he stays bob the fray going after president obama at a rally this morning, he kept up his attack. >> we haven't had a see this many jobs lost during their term since hoover. this is an american tragedy. i look at this president, realize that he just doesn't note what has to be done to get this country on track again. >> politico's playbook's mike allen is here himself with the politico briefing today. mike, you've been all over iowa. have you tracked the candidates. who has the feel, the momentum and let's talk about mitt romney and his campaign strategy. >> yeah, well the most happy, the most at ease is mitt romney. he's stable. he's always had a problem win tensity. people are not as excited about him. i got on the romney bus

yesterday and went to rallies by him in council bluffs, iowa, and there were a lot of people but nothing like the excitement that there was at a ron paul rally. it's pretty nice when the candidate comes to your hotel. but ron paul was a reminder of how calm these events have been because the ron paul people were shouting ron paul, they were chanting but a lot of them weren't from iowa and a lot of them aren't of voting age. so it seems like he's falling. and while mitt romney is hanging in. the big question is santorum. we don't know what's happening with him. rick perry going after him on daily run down here and msnbc was big because specifically choosing the earmark issue, money issue, that's not an issue you want to be on the wrong side of in this psych. >> that is the issue. the economy, blue collar voters. that's what is possibly prop propelling rick santorum, the fact he's been slow and teddy going all over the state and talking about blue collar issues

and coming from a state like pennsylvania where he says he's got some credibility with the kind of reagan democrats who are necessary in a general election. >> that's right. and the hope of the santorum people was that with the good polls this weekend, that especially back man voters who was at the bottom of the polls, maybe voters would come with him because he looked like a winner. the people do want someone who can beat obama supposed to making a statement. that's the opportunity to santorum. but the other campaigns i think that especially perry going after him on earmarks has been damaging today. >> almost any scenario coming out of here for mitt romney, you know, he can win or he can win if santorum comes in close or if perry does. but what if ron paul, i mean, the best scenario for him is actually if ron paul does well rather than santorum or perry because in that case, most people in the party don't think that ron paul is actually going to be the nominee. >> absolutely. he's the ultimate asterisk.

it would almost be counted as a romney win. if he slips into third at this point with the expectations the way they are, with the confidence that his campaign is projecting, that would be harmful. but the top two spots, it puts him in a very strong position. what's interesting is you ask the other campaigns if mitt romney wins iowa, what are the chances that you upset him the nomination? what's the chances he's derailed? they don't see a realistic chance of it. >> do you see anyone dropping out after tomorrow night? >> there aren't incentives to drop out. >> they've got debates and federal funds. >> they're all locked in for a couple of debates over the weekend including one on "meet the press" on nbc. south carolina may be the last stand. rick perry going correctly from there, michele bachmann going directly there from here while the romney plan goes up to new hampshire to claim that. >>. >> thank you very much, mike

allen. great to have you. and up next, the president's campaign playbook, plus my interview with rick santorum. don't forget you can get all the greatest political news at nbc politics.com. this is "andrea mitchell reports" live from des moines iowa, only on msnbc. so you earn 50 percent more cash. if you're not satisfied with 50% more cash, send it back! i'll be right here, waiting for it. who wouldn't want more cash? [ insects chirping ] i'll take it. i'll make it rain up in here. [ male announcer ] the new capital one cash rewards card. the card for people who want 50% more cash. what's in your wallet? sorry i'll clean this up. shouldn't have made it rain. who emailed it to emily, who sent it to cindy, who wondered why her soup wasn't quite the same. the recipe's not the recipe... ohhh. [ female announcer ] ...without swanson. the broth cooks trust most when making soup. mmmm! [ female announcer ] the secret is swanson.

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for our military, veterans and their families. now more than ever, it's important to get financial advice from people who share your military values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa. rick santorum has all the momentum coming out of the last couple of days. he was even on a campaign bus for the first time, not the pickup truck that he's been traveling to all 99 counties in iowa. i caught up with him in india know la this weekend. >> we've done 360 some town hall type meetings and done all 99 counties, did that awhile ago. a lot of that is paying off. i think people are now taking a real close look at who they're going to support, mixing and matching. i think we're doing better. we're starting to come out better in that equation.

>> you call yourself and your new advertisement a full spectrum conservative. why are you a full spectrum conservative and not mitt romney. >> well, i think i understand how all of the issues like national security and economic issues and social conservative issues really do blend together. they're not really separate issues. they really blend together. there's certain foundational principles upon which we base our country. and those values are promoted through our foreign policy, they're promoted through our economy, through how we live our life and our culture. but they're not like different sets of issues. >> why are you more conservative than rick perry or ron paul or newt gingrich? >> i think it's a combination, again, of having that holistic view and having consistent principles that flow through everything. i mean, i believe in american exceptionism, i believe in america's values, those traditional values of our country that are established in the declaration of independence. we need to promote those free

markets and free people. we need to promote strong families and strong faith. we need to promote those values overseas in our foreign policy and if you look at my record, by and large, i've done that. >> newt gingrich is blaming his collapse in the polls on the attack ads and there is a lot of evidence, 49% of those ads were directed against him. is there something wrong with a system ta permits super pacs anonymously to go after and be negative while candidates like mitt romney fly above and stay positive and don't get the blowback or the blame? for so much negative advertising? >> the big problem is campaign finance reform which limited contributions directly to candidates. when you limit contributions directly to candidates, hen people find other ways in which to participate in the political system. >> do you think it's been unfair to newt gingrich? >> you know, unfair? i don't know. i mean, i was with newt the other day at the debate, and we

came and talked right afterwards just a bit on the stage. and he said, what did you think? i said, well, i would have appreciated a few questions. he said, well, you can count your blessings you're not getting them. >> you served with him in congress. >> when you're in the center, that's what you get. >> why are so few, in fact none of the people that he served with this congress, why do you think that he doesn't have the support from people who served with him as you did in the house? >> yeah, you know, obviously newt when he was speaker had some issues. he had some issues with respect to his conservative governance. as you know, there was an attempt to try to move him out, and then of course, he had some of these ethical concerns. so i think a lot of folks you know, are concerned about what the new newt, whether he's going to be different in a sense than the old newt. >> you say you're the most electable to go up against barack obama. yet, you lost pennsylvania by 1

poin points -- by 18 points. >> good lesson learned. >> can mitt romney make the point he would be more electable and get independent or cross votes. >> where has he ever exhibited his ability to get independents or democrats running as a conservative for office? he's never run in a general election as a conservative. i have five times and have won four. all it wasn't a particularly good election year in 2006 when 23 of 33 republicans lost. five congressmen in the state of

pennsylvania lost. so the we lost the house of representatives by a huge margin. it was a -- we lost the governorship by more than i lost. >> do you think this year your position on abortion, the only exception being to save the life of the mother and you did sign the pledge on the personhood amendment which would possibly outlaw some kinds of contraception, do you think that that position is too conservative or too stringent to be a mainstream position for the american people in a general election. >> i would say most people in america respect life. and want to be a welcoming society when it comes to life. and i think it's an important role for a president to and any leader to stand up and accurately reflect what the facts are. and the fact is, that at the moment of conception, we have life. and that we have courts who have said that we are not going to recognize that life as equivalent to other life.

that's -- obviously the courts and the american people can say we're going to choose how to value life differently depending on where that person is, maybe how sick they are, whatever the case may be. i've certainly been tough on ron on his foreign policy. it is one that you know -- is he qualified to be commander in chief? just on the issue of commander in chief, he comes from the dennis kucinich wing of the democratic party which is not a place where i would want my commander in chief to be.

the problem is, barack obama in his second term i fear would not be much better. >> fighting words from rick santorum about both ron paul and president obama. the president has been hammered by the here in iowa by all of the republican candidates. he'll be defending himself to iowa democrats by video on caucus night. jen saki is former white house communications director now vice president of the global strategy group and doug high from the rnc, now a consultant for the iowa republican party. welcome both. jen, first to you. how is the president going to address the iowa democratic caucuses tomorrow night? obviously no contest. but you want to energize the troops? >> absolutely. >> and respond to some of these attacks. iowa is a battleground state. >> of course. iowa has such a special place to the president. it's where he launched his historic campaign four years ago. i was thinking today just about the difference between the energy when he was traveling

around the state four years ago and you would see people on rope lines and see big crowds and what you're feeling with the republican electorate today. there's a stark difference in the energy. but this is an opportunity tomorrow night for the president to continue his conversation with the people of iowa. he'll be taking some questions. he'll be speaking to people at the caucus, and what's important to remember is that wednesday morning when people wake up and the republican campaigns clean up and close their offices, we'll still be here. the president has eight offices around iowa. he's already made 350,000 calls around the state. this is a continuing conversation. it's not an end of the campaign like it is for the republicans the end of tomorrow. >> doug, what about the lack of energy? is this a weak field. >> no, i think there's a lot of energy as i've traveled throughout the state, people are most excited about replacing barack obama has a president. certainly the president has a tremendous organization throughout the country. what's interesting is if you really drill down in iowa what you see is an iowa democratic party that's really on the ropes right now.

the republicans have had 33 straight months of registration gains under republican chairman matt strong here in the state while democrats since barack obama has been president have lost 10% of their voters, one out of ten democrats has fled the democratic party. that's not a position of strength going into what be a battleground state certainly. >> jen, the president is going to actually take questions live. this is not a videotaped message? >> that's right. he will be taking some questions tomorrow. and he'll be continuing the conversation with people across the state about what to do about the economy, how we can continue moving things forward, and that's not something he's going to end after tuesday evening. he'll continue it through the coming months and hopefully the next five years. >> doug, as we've traveled around we see smaller crowds than in the past, people mo are not passionate about many of their choices. you see a high number of undecided voters, as well. you do see people very upset about washington and a lot of anger against the white house and against congress. >> absolutely. that's where you're seeing the rhetoric come from the republican candidates.

what we have seen is a real, as we began this process of winnowing down the field, the number of undecides has reduced not only over the past month but over the past three days. ppp had a poll today that had only 11% undecided. >> that poll is one we don't put a whole lot of stock in it quite frankly. >> what we know is that the field is -- that voters are making their mind up on the field. we'll see as those candidates who have the best organization in the state are probably going to be those are the ones who do the best on caucus night because they'll have representatives in the 1,174 different precinctses making that closing case. >> there is reporting out of a briefing given in hawaii to the white house press corps reporting that the president is coming back with a strategy of just running against congress. white house officials have been advising that's a little bit overwritten. obviously, he did very well in the closing weeks of the payroll tax fight by going against congress. what are your expectations coming back?

you've got the payroll tax issue, the state of the union. what's the broad theme? >> i don't think anyone would argue that washington isn't broken. that's how the president feels. but he would like to do nothing more than to return from hawaii, work with congress to get the remaining pieces of the american jobs act passed. he would love to put millions of construction workers back to work. i would caution people about believing everything they read. he would like nothing more than to move that agenda forward. >> doug, as you look at congress and see these appalling approval ratings for congress, doesn't it seem as though the republican leadership, especially on the house side, partially divided, has kind of fumbled the ball here and the president has really managed to win some points? by getting them to back down? >> i haven't met the person who approves of congress yet but let's keep in mind a quote that josh ernest said this week, that the president doesn't need to

engage congress anymore. let's not forget that harry reid has had more than 900 days of not passing a budget. it's not republicans who just run congress. the democrats run the senate. i still have a fire pelosi banner from the rnc. >> one of your souvenirs. jen, doesn't the president also have to get something done and prove that as a leader, he can find ways to develop compromises with john boehner, eric cantor and the rest? >> absolutely. that's why it was so important that he ended 2011 last year by getting a payroll tax cut passed, making sure 160 million americans had an additional tax cut and you know, republicans left people with the idea that maybe they were for raising taxes. that's something you don't hear all the time from that party. so you know, he is absolutely committed to working with democrats and republicans to keep the agenda forward but he also is realistic about the top priority of republicans in

congress which they've stated themself. that's defeating him. he's going to look for other ways as he did in the fall to keep providing relief to middle class families and to people who need it the most. >> jen psaki speaking for the president and his president, doug, pleasure to have you here from the republican side. see what happens on caucus night, as well. and up next, ron paul's rising. does he win, place or show? what is the over/under on ron paul? you're watching "andrea mitchell reports" live from des moines only on msnbc. ♪ like so many great pioneers before me, guided only by a dream. i'm embarking on a journey of epic proportion. i will travel, from sea to shining sea, through amber waves of grain, and i won't stop until i've helped every driver in america save hundreds on car insurance. well i'm out of the parking lot. that's a good start. geico, fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent,

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hi, everyone. i'm tamron hall. coming up on "news nation," why they are still registered. the des moines register says about 41% of republicans likely to participate in tomorrow's caucus are zil undecided. a popular conservative radio talk show host in iowa who is credited with keeping mitt romney from winning the caucus in 2008 will be my live guest.

what he's hearing from the most conservative voters in that state. and we're following breaking news in that massive manhunt on mount rainier for the iraq war vet accuses of gunning down a park ranger. the suspect has been found dead near his vehicle. we'll have a live report. >> and ron paul is getting some help from his son, senator rand paul today as the two of them campaigned in des moines earlier just about an hour ago. did he take a holiday break because he is confident of winning or because he's giving up? mark halperin senior political analyst at "time" magazine and an msnbc senior political analyst and all about campaign reporter. i can't even imagine the schedule you've been keeping. mark, ron paul, you just came from the event. how was it calibrated? was this your typical ron paul event? was there a big crowd. >> pretty typical large, intense crowd more intense than you see at other candidates' events. young crowd.

a lot of people who i don't suspect will participate in the caucuses. either they're not iowans or they're too young. but you know, ron paul has a message that's inspirational to young people. i don't think we should discount that in any way. whether he wins, places or shows, it is an inspirational message. everybody should want more of that in politics. >> where does he go from here? do you think that he could actually win the i wat caucus? >> i think he could but i doubt it. i think he's more likely to be third than first at this the point. there's a ceiling on his point. there's been a lot of negative advertising and voter communication, some of which has not been fully reported out yet in the last couple weeks. i think the regular caucusgoers, the people who caucus every four years, i don't think he'll find much support with that group. passionate voters a lot of them i don't think are eligible to be in this caucus. >> ann seltzer was telling me

earlier there's this precipitous decline as santorum was surging. you could just see ron paul going down. is that partly because of iran, foreign policy concerns that he's not material to be commander in chief? >> i think that is probably not as big a deal for a lot of iowans as it is for people in washington and in politics and certainly for the candidates, michele bachmann has been more outspoken on that as have some of the other candidates. i think it's more an electability issue, less offe e offensive to positions than the notion of time to pick a president and i think overall, ron paul has challenges there. again, outside the core group who supports him, there's an intensity amongst that group but i don't think it's going to translate unless the turnout is below 100,000 for ron paul to be able to win. >> whaund scenario does mitt romney not get this nomination? >> i'm asking a lot of sources. i think the way he doesn't is if

he's wounded here. maybe he finishes third. maybe a weak third or loses to rick santorum and people in the party question, can we really nominate someone who can't win against someone so underfunded as rick santorum, weaker than expected showing in new hampshire and then lose to south carolina to someone and causes angst within the party? it's certainly the case that after here, even if he wins, a lot of conservatives are going to say, look, 75% or so of the party doesn't want mitt romney but he still has to lose to somebody. right now i think the two people best positioned to beat him are rick santorum and newt gingrich. and neither has a clear path to the nomination. the most likely scenario is he's knocked out quickly. that seems unlikely at this point. a long fight plays to mitt romney's strengths. he's got the resources, organization and money. >> mark halperin continuing on the trail. thank you. >> thanks, andrea. what political story will be making headlines in the next 24

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. >> which plit california story will make headlines in the next 24 hours? chris rejoins us. it's not even a close call. we are talking about the iowa caucuses and who will show up. how many people and what the tourn out will be. will the independents come and register on caucus night and which way will they split? >> mark halpern and i was listening in and where does it turn out or wind up? is it under 100,000 or 120,000 when huckabee won or it could go higher than that. the higher it goes the better for mitt romney. if it's a small turn out

dominated by social conservatives or ron paul supporters, ron paul may be able to win. the bigger that grows, the better for mitt romney and the guy with one of the best organizations in the ability to turn out his team. it's fascinating. the level of undecideds is not unique. in people said they could change their mind. electability which they know, it's mitt romney versus someone who blts what they believe or understands iowans and right now that looks like rick santorum. where do they decide and end up? what's more important less than 24 hours now? >> and the interesting thing about rick santorum, i noticed this on "meet the press," he is not your typical politician. you ask him a question about a conflict in his position on something and he deals with it or answers it.

he doesn't deflect the question. especially in the political profession. yes he lost his last race by 18 points, but he won a bunch of races in not all that friendly either the state or the house. in a house district. not districts that were all that friendly to republicans. this is someone who has a demonstrated appeal. he was not elected in a while and the last race was a bad loss, but he is not new to the game. this is someone who has been through the ringer before and knows his voice and is clearly energized by his moment in the sun. he's got the best thing going for him that all politicians root for. peaking at the right time. >> timing is everything. luck has something to do with it too. thanks so much. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." join us tomorrow for nonstop coverage of the iowa caucuses.

we will number des moines with michele bachmann and nbc correspondent tom brocaw. tamron hall has a look at what's next. happy new year. >> great to see you there. we are following the latest developments in the battle for iowa with one day to go before the caucuses. we will be joined by talk show hosts credited with keeping mitt romney from winning the caucus in 2008. what he is saying now about romney's fragile lead. there's live pictures where ron paul has been campaigning with rand paul. we will check in and cover the candidates and get you the latest on the ground in three minutes. s checking up on me. i wasn't eating well. she's a dietitian, and she suggested i try boost complete nutritional drink to help get the nutrition i was missing. now i drink it every day and i love the great taste. [ female announcer ] boost has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to help keep bones strong

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>> right now on "news nation." so sound and fury. not at a loss for words or tax on each other. >> rick