none of those candidates could hold a candle to ronald reagan. thanks very much for watching. as i said earlier, a very happy new year to you. dylan is still recovering from a raft hefty celebration, so matt miller is here to take us forward. matt, it's all yours. >> martin, happy new year to you. we've good more iowa madness, a bereave of the gop's secret anti-obama playbook, plus, some hard questions about lady gaga's new year wardrobe. the show starts right now. the big story on this monday, caucus eve in iowa, good afternoon and happy new year, everyone. i'm matt miller in for dylan ratigan. the top gop candidates were out in full force today, trying to drum up support in the final day before the official start of primary season. take a look. >> iowans, like all americans, care about having a president

who has solid positions on all the issues. and they wouldn't vote for me if i didn't. >> i look at this president and realize that he just doesn't know what has to be done to get this country on track again. >> the american people are stirring. this is what this campaign has been all about. this is what the vote is about tomorrow. >> gallup says this is the republican's most volatile race since the advent of polling. and the numbers don't lie. already this field has produced four different front-runners and seven lead changes. in the latest from the "des moines register" shows rom nney virtually tied at the top and rick santorum surging into third. no wonder iowa mania is at a fever pitch. and we've just about reached that crucial one national journalist to voter on the ground. if you were in iowa, wouldn't you appreciate your own personal media escort to the gym tuesday night? at this point, the cliche is still true, anything can happen. especially when 41% of likely republican caucusgoers are still undecided.

nbc's domenico montanaro is in the middle of it all in iowa. domenico, what's it like? >> reporter: it's really interesting. everybody's out there on the trail. it looks like this is coming down to a three-person race between romney, paul, and santorum. i was about 50 miles south of south dakota, out in orange city and sioux city, and a lot of enthusiasm for rick santorum. a lot of people said they had just made up their mind in the past week that they liked bachmann, they liked gingrich, but now they're with santorum. we're seeing him start to rise, and if he coalesce religious voters, he could pull off a big upset. 119,000 voters came out last time to caucus. if it's above that number, we believe that could be pretty good for mitt romney. if it's below that number, that could be good for rick santorum. if it's above that number, mitt

romney's been attracting the casual voter. and ron paul's going to be right there. we'll have a tight race on our hands. >> joining us now from des moines, also right in the thick of it, is beth reinhart from the "national journal," and carol hunter, political reporter from the "des moines register." welcome, all. carol, where do you see things stacked up in the last day? we've seen so much back and forth, any sense of where this is headed in the next 24 hours? >> boy, that is really hard to say. it really is a stack. you have mitt romney, ron paul, rick santorum, the latest polling all says that any one of them has a good shot at winning tomorrow night. >> and beth, with 41% still undecided, that seems like an extraordinary number, especially given how, you know, the onslaught of advertising, both positive, and of course, negative that all the iowans have been exposed to, as well as how long people have been on the ground. what is this level of undecidedness, this close to the

actual vote mean? >> it's really amazing. i mean, you go to a candidate event, even one that's early in the morning, very far away, and there'll be people there. you seem that they are in the tank for that candidate, but, no, they're just checking them out. one day before the caucus, they're still checking out. i was at a ron paul event today. there are people that are still struggling. ron paul, mitt romney. i mean, you couldn't have two candidates more different than the two of them, and people are weighing the process as and con each of those guys. >> carol, i want to put up some sound we have from mitt romney, because there are some saying that he's already, even though he's doing better than he might have thought even a month or six weeks ago in iowa, he's still pitching his closing argument against obama in the white house. give a listen and then let me have you react. >> i want to get regulators to see their job is to encourage business, not to crush it. i will impose a block. i'll put a hold on every obama era regulation and get rid of those that kill jobs in america.

>> i'm going to cut out things that i know we like but just can't afford. i'm going to get rid of obama care on day one. >> all the polls do show that even if they're undecided, iowa voters tend to view romney as the most electable. is he wise to be pitching his closing argument in those kind of general election, anti-obama terms? >> well, that's really it. he has run all along against obama. he's tried to stay above the fray. he has only rarely criticized his opponents. today, i thought it was interesting, and yesterday, he said some negative things about rick santorum for the first time. i think that says a lot about rick santorum climbing in the polls. but for the most part, mitt romney is viewed as the most electable. that was very clear in our latest iowa poll, and he's trying to sell that message. one thing we know that republicans are united about,

they want to defeat obama in the fall, and he's trying to sell that he's the best one to do that. >> beth, i have to say when i saw rick santorum on "meet the press" yesterday, another media stuff that you've seen him on, i've never seen the man look so happy in his life. it's like his surge has come at the kind of fantasy time for a candidate in the iowa caucuses. is that your sense and do the crowds reflect that? >> yeah, you can't help but feel a little excited for a guy who has held something like 400 town haul halls across the state, been in the state for more than 100 days. his hard work is finally paying off for him. the interesting thing, if he does win or come in second or a close third, some people will see that as vindication of retail politics, that spending the time in iowa does work. i think that he take some credit for that, but i also think he peaked at the right time and you just can't underestimate the importance of that. his rivals came and went and his surge came right when he needed

it. >> carol, talk a little bit about the role of the evangelical voters in the caucuses. always very important. are they playing as important a role? are they likely to turn out in as great numbers this year as they did in 2008? >> i think that's one of the great questions that we're all waiting to see. it's been said that 60% of evangelicals, 60% of caucusgoers in 2008 identified themselves as evangelicals as they went into entrance polls. i've always wondered about that figure. our steadies show a steady third to 45% identify as evangelicals. they are a very important block in the iowa caucuses, but they've been very split this time. there's a number of strong social conservative candidates, they liked michele bachmann, they liked rick perry. newt gingrich even made a play as well for this block. but they've just been splintered. our polling did show, even in

the past week, perhaps they're starting to coalesce towards rick santorum. >> beth, what about newt gingrich? he was obviously on top of the world as long ago as two weeks, and he's sounding -- we've got a little sound here, a little more cynical or bitter. give a listen. >> this isn't just a cynical contest between people who hire consultants to see who can be nastier. if i have to get beaten up every day in the media and attacked every day by consultants who know nothing, i will endure that. people think i'd actually be the most effective president, but i'm also carrying the weight of $3.5 million of negative ads. >> beth, newt gingrich sounds like he's absorbing the negative ads so the rest of us don't have to. will this have any appeal? does he have a shot to improve his position from the recent polls in the last day? >> i think, you know, the tone you picked up on is interesting. and you contrast that with the very positive energetic, mood you get from rick santorum.

and so much of this, at this point, trying to predict what will happen is just instinct, because it is so close. but you can't help but feel -- i saw newt gingrich the other day -- that the air is kind of seeping out of the balloon. that his time is over. and that edge you hear in his voice, the bitterness, sounds like smn who knows he's going to the lose. >> beth and carol, thanks for those insights. we'll obviously be watching with you all in the next 24 hours. >> thank you. coming up here on "the d.r. show," the secret strategy republican operatives are already plotting to take on the president. plus, careening towards collapse? we've watched the austerity cuts and resulting riots, but could we actually see the euro go extinct in 2012? dan gross is our specialist. and four years later, what young americans in the first of the nation states think of president obama now. my trip. but my smile wasn't. [ female announcer ] new crest 3d white intensive professional effects whitestrips.

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if i don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition. and i welcome that responsibility, because i think now's the time for us to start shifting and thinking about long-term economic growth. >> republicans are hoping statements like that will be their ticket to the white house in 2012. according to the "washington post," the attack plan from gop strategists is coming together in the form of the book. it's 500 pages of quotes and video links aimed at making sure president obama only serves one term. and it's going to be the backbone of republican strategy for the next year. the idea is to use the president's speeches and promises against him. so this probably won't be the last time you hear the sound bite we just played.

let's bring in our monday megapanel to see what they think. msnbc contributor imogen lloyd webber from iowa. tim carney, senior political columnist for the "washington examiner," and chrystia freeland, editor at large at reuters. tim, let me start with you. since i know you're on the ground in iowa, i can't not ask you, what's going to happen? what's your sense out there ? and i hear you're predicting a santorum win, is that right? >> yeah, my examiner column today says i think santorum will eke it out, just because he hasn't been through the ringer yet. he's the none of the above vote for the republicans, because they picked all these other non-romneys, and after they got the spotlight, they got shot down. so it's just that santorum got lucky at the right time. >> chrystia, let's look at this "washington post" piece today on the so-called secret book that they've got. one thing i think is with all

the advances in technology, now that they've got video links in this thing, all the sound bites, they can search for everything obama's said on video by key word and phrase. i think the biggest advances we've seen, thanks to technology, are smart phones and opposition research. am i wrong? >> no. i think you're right. i mean, maybe we're going to see now the twitter revolution, which we saw transforming the middle east, transforming american politics. i think, you know, to connect it with tim's comment, though, if i were a republican back room boy, i would be really unhappy about the primaries so far, because it looks like a party speed dating and rejecting each suitor, every time they get close to closing the deal. i think that for independents, that is not that appealing. and if you're the republican party right now, you really want the focus to be on not anybody but romney, but anybody but obama. so i'm not surprised that this story has come out today, because i think that this is really a bad time for the

republicans in that, you know, the economy is doing terribly badly right now, still, despite the recent uptick, but what we're all talking about is the various crazynesses and inadequacies of all the republican candidates. >> imogen, maybe i'm inievnaive would like to see actual ideas from the republicans, but instead all of the stuff that's been leaked and how they're going to maul bomb aobama and hm on his own words, when he obviously walked into the toughest economy in generations. am i wrong for hoping more from the gop? >> well, expecting more from everybody. this is gearing up to be a very negative presidential election. you're going to have the gop who are going after obama as the promised much, delivered little man. and of course obama will be rail against the do-nothing congress. and it's us a about harnessing

the angry voter, the disgruntled voters out there, which is about as far from hope and change as you can possibly get. and this is a very sad state of affairs, but it is going to be 2012. we have a saying, a week is a long time in politics, it's proving that over iowa and it's also going to prove that over the election as a whole. we've got a long way to go. this is just the start. >> tim, i know you want to chime in on the book, i know the dnc is already putting out there mitt versus mitt ads, so this goes both ways. this is all a preview of this intensely negative campaign against a bad economic backdrop, which is why i think so many voters are disgusted. what's your take? >> well, yes. and i talked to a democratic voter who voted for obama four years ago, when i was in council bluffs yesterday. and she just said, i want to throw everybody out. which, of course, would mean, probably voting for the republican nominee in the end. but part of it is because obama promised so much. in other words, you only have to go after his broken promises to

really hit him hard. if you're a republican, you don't have to offer a positive plan. so, yes, it's a reason to be depressed, but it's also almost fair game if you're promising hope and change. he literally said he would re-make america in his inaugural address. so he's opening himself up for a lot of gut checks. >> can i jump in -- >> we're going to be watching those gut checks in the days to come. i want to spend a minute on iran. they're doing a little bit of saber rattling in the face of tougher sanctions. claiming to have successfully test-fired two missiles, just as leaders say iran has produced its first nuclear fuel rod. the missile tests took place during military exercises during the strait of hormuz, through which one sixth of the world's oil passes. you'll recall that iran has already threatened to clos the key supply route if nations tighten sanctions.

is this a kind of negotiating posture or is this something to really worry about? >> well, i think part of the reason to really worry about iran no matter what is, it's very hard to tell. i think the iranians are really worried going into 2012, and they should be. first of all, i think america becomes a harder counterparty in an election year, and that makes things more difficult for the iranians. i think the geopolitics in the whole region is changing, in ways that are not that great from the iranian point of view. and then, finally, if you were the iranian leadership, i think this would be a year to really, really worry about a domestic revolution. all of that, i think, makes them really unpredictable, and incredibly dangerous players. >> imogen, that's a pretty grim picture, but my guess is for 2012. we have a lot to worry about when it comes to what the iranians are doing and saying. >> absolutely. the iranians in power are feeling incredibly insecure at the moment. they're looking at their big

ally, assad, in syria and sth thinking, oh, my word. we know that iran have been involved with a covert war with the west for many years now. all those iranian scientists have been assassinated on iranian soil. those computer viruses that have been happening at iranian nuclear facilities and so forth. so it's incredibly tricky to know exactly what is going on, but we do need to be very concerned, obviously, about the region. >> now, tim, doesn't this play, in some ways, into a republican argument? because they argue that we need to be kind of full-bore ahead on energy development here at home. issues like the keystone pipeline, where it's not just jobs at stake, but also access to oil from friendly allies, as opposed to this unstable region. this, in some ways, gives more fodder to the gop case, doesn't it? >> well, on the energy front, i think you're exactly right. but on the foreign policy front, it's highlighting divisions. because rick santorum is easily the most hawkish republican when it comes to iran. and one of the lines that ron paul and his son rand paul around iowa are using today is

more or less saying, you should be scared of this guy. it's almost like the lbj add against cold waters. rick santorum might get abuse a war with a nuclear iran. so -- and the republican electorate really is divided on that. they may be very hawkish, they may be very aggressive in wanting to protect the united states. they may be very pro-israel, but republicans don't want a war, another war, much more than democrats do. >> now, a last nanosecond on iowa, before you go, tim, and before we take a quick break. if ron paul is sort of a number two tomorrow, or even ends up number one, is he going to end up, if he flames out? is he going to go independent? because that's what a lot of folks are still worried. what's your quick take on that? >> i know a lot of ron paul people, and i really think it's very unlikely that he would go independent. he and his son both believe in trying to fix the republican party, rather than attack it from outside. >> and as we've said, i think, a few times here, that would

put -- if he went independent, that would put his son, rand paul, in praa pretty untenable position as he tries to rise in the senate. straight ahead, buying their time. how long can the leaders keep the euro afloat? why 2012 could be a make or break year for the region as we know it. the best approach to food is to keep it whole for better nutrition. that's what they do with great grains cereal. they steam and bake the actual whole grain while the other guy's flake is more processed. mmm. great grains. the whole whole grain cereal. we have to thank you for the advice on phillips' caplets. magnesium, right? you bet! phillips' caplets use magnesium. works more naturally than stimulant laxatives... for gentle relief of occasional constipation. can i get an autograph? [ female announcer ] live the regular life. phillips'. this is mary... who has a million things to pick up each month on top of her prescriptions.

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2012 will be the year of the euro. mainly the question of whether there will still be a euro when we usher in 2013. economists predict by this time next year, at least one eurozone country will have called it quits, creating a domino effect among the rest of the zone. the grim future for the euro has got german chancellor angela ameri merkel calling it the toughest test for a generation. what's this mean for our economy? so goes the euro, so goes us? our specialist today means not necessarily. let's welcome back yahoo!

finance columnist dan gross. happy new year to you, dan. >> happy new year to you, matt. >> take us through what you're looking at in terms of europe for 2012. i've been very anxious about this. you've been a little more optimistic. tell us what you're thinking. >> europe probably will muddle through. we've seen this kind of cycle wherthese governments, you know, they raise taxes, they cut spending, hoping to reduce their deficits, and thus lower interest rates, and ps, all that austerity means the economy just grows slower and they just have higher deficits. spain just reported this. greece has gone through the cycle many times. and so then they have to have another summit meeting and another half measure. most aimed at saving the banks. but it's clear that what europe will continue to do is take the measures required or necessary to stop its banking system from melting down, while its political leaders in, you know, in the government level essentially, you know, makes the lives of their own citizens miserable by cutting public spending and raising taxes.

and that is a recipe for recession, you know, in a very large economy. but as far as the impact on the u.s., i think it's actually going to be quite limited. >> chrystia freeland's got a question. >> so, dan, as it happens, i agree with your sort of perversely optimistic european scenario. it's sort of a sign of how bad things are that what you've just said, i think, is sort of the optimist's point of view. but i would like to ask you whether you see any way that things could fall apart. you know, matt opened this up by saying that people are predicting that one country will drop out of the eurozone. do you agree with that? and how would that play out? >> well, i think things sort of have fallen apart. when you have one of the constituents of the euro, namely greece, that, you know, is essentially not paying its dets and that bondholders were first asked to take a 10% reduction in the amount of money they would get back, and later it was, oh, 20%. then it was 50%. you know, i think by the end of the day, it could be 80 or 90%.

greece, for all intents and purposes, has essentially defaulted on its debt and doesn't really have a clear path towards getting back towards solvency or standing on its own two feet. >> but it's still inside the eurozone. >> it's still trapped inside the eurozone. i think what's going to continue to happen with greece is there will be more and further haircuts where the banks and the people that own the debt, if they are foolish enough to still hold on to it, will have to make provisions for losing even more money for holding on to it, because they're really not going to get paid back, and greece is going to continue to suffer. but, you know, the european central bank and the political leadership of europe, led by germany and france, are so intent on keeping the eurozone together, they seem willing to, you know, take the types of actions to keep kicking the can down the road for another year, two, three years. so i don't see a quick and early exit by a greece or spain or portugal. they are taking their lumps, they are taking their bailouts

and kind of muddling through. >> imogen's got a question. >> so the euro has just seen its tenth anniversary. long-term, do you see it having its 20th anniversary? >> yeah, but it could be, like a lot of people we know whose 10-year anniversaries were perfectly happy, and along the way, there's a lot of fighting and threats of divorce, lawsuits, broken silverware, things like that. i think it's a fool's game to try to predict, you know, five years out or ten years out in the economy today. so i wouldn't want to hazard a guess as to -- and i don't know, is the 20th anniversary the paper or the silver or maybe the tin anniversary? i'm not sure. >> silver, i think, isn't it? >> that's right. so, tim, any marriage analogy you can offer dan as he tries to take us deeper into this crisis? >> well, he said -- he was talking about banks, so my mind was more on bailouts than nupti nuptials. and i was just wondering about american banks and how much they

stand to lose from what's going on. you say the u.s. economy won't suffer, and i agree, but we've often seen that it's directed towards preserving the banking system as it is here. so will there be u.s. measures to protect american banks? do you see american banks suffering? >> well, we should be thankful for the federal reserve -- i've always thought the european central bank does not want to take the kind of bold and dramatic and controversial action that the fed did back in 2008 to save the u.s. financial system and the global financial system. but the american federal reserve, our central bank, you know, is always willing and able. you know, back in '08, they opened up and they lent hundreds of billions of dollars to european banks who are in trouble. they're doing swaps lines and all sorts of things with their counterparts, with financial institutions in europe. if they can't get help from the european central bank, they know they can come to the fed and they have done that. and i think more broadly, you know, the story in the second half of this year, when

everybody started in august and september and talking about, oh, the u.s. is going back into recession. meanwhile, all the data is showing that the u.s. economy is actually strengthening, growing at a 0.4% annual rate in the first quarter growing not fourth quarter. the u.s. corporate sector and companies and consumers have to a large agree restructured and paid down a fair amount of debt, improved their balance sheets, got themselves in a better position to stay current on debt, and we've seen hiring, we've seen the banking system in the u.s., bank failures have come down dramatically. the banking industry, you know, in the second quarter earned something like $38 billion. our large banks, our mid-sized banks are in a much better position now than they were three years ago to absorb credit problems. so the citigroups and jpmorgans have to take hits against their european holdings. they're in a much better position to do so, because for last few years, they've been raising capital, cutting their

dividends, you know, being sort of stingy with their shareholders and employees. >> so, dan, look, i'd be thrilled if chrystia called your optimistic, although it's still pretty grim scenario, turns out to be true. >> i would be thrilled if i turned out to be right too. it would be the first time since 2006. >> but here's a -- don't say that. here's a couple things that people are talking about, that at least i would like to get your reaction to. one is potential downgrade of the french government's rating that some say could come early in 2012. and that's related to the broader question that there's still a lot of debt. all these big countries, italy, france, others, have to roll over lots of their existing debt. and right now, you know, you don't have lots of private folks who are flooding in to buy that, because it still seems so risky. do you see, could there be potential trouble there? one of those triggering events, like the s&p downgrade here, where suddenly the markets wake up and think, this is all a kind of backdoor bailout through the european central bank to fragile european banks and things are

more fragile than we thought? >> matt, if you look back to -- hark back to when standard & poor's cut the u.s. credit rating in august, and everybody was worried, and it was a nonevent. our interest rates that the government pays are actually lower than they were before the downgrade, which is counterintuitive. the stock market is probably higher or about the same. so i think the credit rating agencies can inflict short-term pain, but long-term other forces are more powerful. and again, yes, i do see these kind of continuing problems coming up. you know, italy may have a bad bond auction and that may cause the european central bank to try something else and step in. i see these sorts of things continuing to happen throughout 2012/2013, because the real problem, it isn't austerity and it isn't a lack of will in trying to get their deficits under control, it's that the private economies of countries like france and italy and spain are not sufficiently nimble to

react, to kind of create new growth. you know, the u.s. in 1993 when clinton was elected, we enacted austerity. interest rates were going up, we raised taxes on people, there was a big budget deal to cut the deficit and views spending, and yet the economy was able to grow for the next seven years because we tapped into innovation and companies being flexible and the internet and all sorts of new businesses were starting. if you combined austerity with a dynamic private sector, you avoid a lot of these problems. but the problem in europe is that italy and spain do not exhibit that type of dynamism. >> dan gross, rejeking all attempts at making you more of a pessimism. you've got a book coming up out on the myth of american decline. thanks for sharing your insights. thanks to the mega panel for the first mega panel of the new year. look forward to seeing you guys as the year unfolds. next, did dick clark approve

of this? the highlights or lowlights, depending on your viewpoint, from one of the strangest new year's eve shows ever. having tra ha hais such a bles. not financially. so we switched to the bargain detergent, and i found myself using three times more than they say to and the clothes still weren't as clean as with tide. so we're back to tide. they're cuter in clean clothes. that's my tide. what's yours?

most new year's eve, all eyes are fixed on that glowing ball at the crossroads of the world, dropping and welcoming in the coming year. but this year, it was the entertainers stealing the show, with everything from their choice of the outfits to their choice of lyrics. take, for instance, lady gaga's costume lineup. she started in what has alternately been described as a black jaba the hut and a ghost from the old pac-man games. after ditching that, she performed in a black cat suit and mask, but wasn't done there. when it came time to push the put ton and drop the ball, she changed into a white getup with

matching new year's ball mask complete with crystals and welcomed in the new year like this, and this wasn't the only surprising smooch of the evening. abc co-host jenny mccarthy, for lack of a better term, made out with a random nypd officer. let's just say it was awkward, at best. perhaps the biggest fall wrout from the festivities came from singer cee lo green, who changed the lyrics s of john lennon's classic "imagine" ♪ nothing to kill or die for and all religion is true ♪ >> lennon originally wrote, "nothing to kill or die for, and no religion too," but green sang "nothing to kill or die for, and all religions true." maybe in 2012, we can all image a world where we don't focus on

the antics of celebrities, but instead on the antics of the politicians in washington. hey, you may say i'm a dreamer, but i'm not the only one. straight ahead, then and how. how the youth vote has changed since 2008 and where millennials' loyalties lie in 2012. their claim service is so good, now it's guaranteed. [ foreman ] so i can trust 'em. unlike randy. dollar for dollar, nobody protects you like allstate.

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down". we step away from the iowa caucus hoopla to take a listen to the first in the nation youth voices. nationwide, 64 million 18 to 34-year-olds will be able to vote in 2012. but according to our next guest, many disenfranchised millennials are opting to sit this election off. welcome, connor. i know you've been doing a lot of research on what key themes you see driving the youth vote in this election. share what you've come up with. >> absolutely, matt. thanks for having us on. i think, first of all, the first thing you see is that compared to 2008, where, obviously, you had outstanding youth turnout, both in the iowa caucuses and also in the general election, many young voters across the country are feeling less engaged. roughly four years ago, 81% of young voters 18 to 29 said they personally cared a great deal who would be elected president come november. right now that's at 69%.

four years ago, 61% of young voters said they were definitely likely to vote themselves. now it's 50%. so across the board -- >> let me stop you there for one second, connor. is that because they're disen cha enchanted with obama somehow, that the luster has gone off a then very inspiring 2008 campaign? what would you contribute that to? >> i think definitely on some level, you have seen president obama's approval ratings, which started out very high among millennials in our generation decline quite a bit from the low-70s to the 40s, maybe now around 50%. but on the other hand, approval ratings for democrats in congress and even republicans in congress are much lower. i think that, you know, you have incredibly tough times for a lot of young voters right now. 18.1% youth unemployment. that's higher in the united states than in syria. a lot of student loan debt dysfunction in washington, d.c., and with all of that happening at the same time, i think it's only natural for students to be less interested in politics and

in the candidates who take part in it. >> now, i know you've got some other themes you've teased out from your research. please continue. >> absolutely. so young voters on the whole are much more focused on the economy. although all demographics are perhaps more than any other demographic. about 74% of young voters say it's their number one issue. interestingly enough, though. while jobs may be the obvious culprit for a lot of people, deficits are actually the issue on which the smallest number of millennials approve of president obama's performance. so that can't be overlooked as well. the other thing that's interesting, though, is that while many people aren't incredibly impressed with the president or aren't as enthusiastic about re-electing him maybe as they were in 2008, there's not a whole lot of support going to the major republican candidates either. ron paul definitely has a very vocal and supportive wing of young voters, but there's not any one candidate who seems able to really capture a wave like barack obama did in 2008.

>> what do you -- what do you attribute -- to what do you attribute ron paul's appeal for, maybe it's a small, but sort of intense segment of the youth vote? after all, he's 76. he's got a kind of libertarian message, but also, you know, a bit radical with the, you know, abolish the federal reserve and you know, some things that would put him way on the fringe. what's his -- why has he got that pied piper ability, at least with some kids? >> you know, i think above all, a lot of students feel that ron paul is exactly who he says he is. he hasn't switched a lot in his positions over time. he's always been very authentic. so even people who may not agree completely with a lot of his positions, such as eliminating federal student loans, for the most part, still respect him a great deal. and i think, especially students that maybe weren't as attracted to barack obama or have started to think that he has moved a lot from what he originally campaigned on, are attracted to the idea of someone who sticks

to their guns even if, you know, you may want agree with them 100% on every issue. >> well, they're still young. thal learn when they grow up not to expect that from politicians, right? tell us about iowa in particular. i know you've been doing some research on the ground in iowa with folks who are both disengaged, but also some who are excited and energized by the chance to participate in the caucus. share some of your findings. >> yeah, absolutely. i think that's the one thing that's really important to recognize both about the population as a whole, but in particular, our generation. that while we talk about disengagement and people who are less enthusiastic, there are also a lot of people who are very enthusiastic, even if it's a smaller percentage than four years ago. and some of them are very enthusiastic for ron paul, some are very enthusiastic for rick perry or mitt romney, some are still very enthusiastic for barack obama. so so what we observed was a real diversity in the thoughts and opinions of young voters both in iowa and across the

country. in 2008, you had about 65,000 young voters show up to the iowa caucuses. about 50,000 of those to the democratic caucus and a much smaller percentage, about maybe 12,000 to the republican caucus. i think that you will see smaller turnout this year, partly because very few people will be going to the democratic caucus, and also because much of that percentage will not be made up for in the republican caucus. there's a lot of disengaged voters over there as well. but there are going to be -- >> go ahead. >> i was just going to say, there are going to be some people who are very engaged. there are going to be a lot of voters who are still very supportive of their chosen candidates. >> now, if i were 18 or 20 or 22, i think i'd be very angry about the kind of, the lack of what seems like a real agenda coming from either party right now, when you look at the set of challenges that young people are facing, which is a tougher job market and a bunch of other factors than we've seen in many, many, many decades. i think we have a little table up that we can put up that's got

just some of the issues that show. you've got only 41%, according to one study, of 18 to 29-year-olds are working full-time. i mean, that's kind of shocking. the average salary is around 37,000. nearly 10,000 less than two years ago for young folks. the unemployment rate, very high. student loan debt continues to soar, because both parties kind of turned a blind eye to all these forces driving up college tuitions. and you've got these crazy state budget cuts that means even the aid that does go to colleges to keep tuitions down is drying up. why isn't there more anger? is it just that young people are focused just on doing what they can to get a toehold in the job market? or is there something different at work? >> you know, i think that's definitely part of it. i think this probably goes to some level to the different stages of grief. i think that a lot of people had anger at some point, but a lot of people have just moved to frustration and sort of giving up on the process. it's really remarkable, when you look at the stats that have come out from both the pew research

center and also harvard's institute of politics recently, surveying young voters. the percentages that think the country is on is headed in the right direction versus the wrong track, it's something like 12 versus 50 plus percent. 50 plus percent thinking the country's on the wrong track, and the rest being unsure. when you talk, to you know, young voters, just talking to my fellow students at notre dame or across the country, there's always a sense that we are facing major, major challenges. not just the economic crisis we face right now, but also, you know, the consequences of student loan debt in the long-term and deficits and climate change and immigration. and that the agenda of neither party is up to the task, and that the political courage that we're really going to need to allay a sustainable future for our generation is lacking right now. and you know, i guess there's different ways that different people deal with that. some people have become very activist. you've seen the occupy wall street movement, which is definitely a subset of millennials that have taken one approach, but you just also have a lot of people that are giving up on the process. >> now, just about 20 seconds,

given all that you just said, do you think young people would be open to the idea of a strong, independent candidate who would try and come down a kind of radical center next year and propose much bolder solutions to the set of -- to the set of problems you rightly lay out, and that both sides seem to be kind of caught in their own interest groups and timidity, in not being really responsive to? >> i definitely think it's possible. the other thing i would lay out is i also think it's entirely possible for either candidate, democratic or republican or a third party candidate, if a credible one emerges, to really make an effort to re reingauge young people. we're talking about a level of disenfranchisement, but i think that could change over time. >> connor toohill, an able representative of your generation. you guys really got to get into the game to develop a constituency for the kind of

honest policies we need, because if you can change the wind that way, the politicians will follow. we'll be watching you and watching what next gen is up to. coming up on "hardball," chris is live in iowa, following all the caucus action. but next, keli, the clairvoyant. keli goff says she already know who is the big winner will be tomorrow, and that it's bad news for women. we're back with the daily rant, after this. [ sniffs ] i have a cold. [ sniffs ] i took dayquil

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it's monday, which means keli goff is here with our first daily rant of 2012. keli, take it away. >> thanks, matt. while much of the media coverage in recent months has been spent crowning the latest front-runner of the moment, both real and

imagery, remember herman cain, the real winner of the upcoming iowa caucus has gone largely unnoticed, the anti-reproductive rights movement. last week rick perry sent a message to those who thought that his anti-gay stronger ad was the epitome of pandering that you ain't seen nothing yet. perry announced at an iowa town hall that he'd undergone a transformation regarding his position on abortion and now believes the procedure should not be permissible in cases regarding rape or incest. ron paul became the first gop accompanied to sign the personhood pledge. the pledge which has also been signed by bachmann, gingrich, perry, and santorum advocates a life amendment to the constitution, giving the same rights to an undeveloped embryo that you and i enjoy. while abortion remains one of america's most divisive issue, birth control and the issue of abortion in extreme circumstances are not divisive at all.

99% of sexually active american women use birth control. and those recent polls indicate that americans are split equally on whether or not abortion should be legal, an overwhelming majority, more than 80%, believe it should be legal in cases of rape and incest. nearly 90% believe it should be legal to save the life of a mother. though iowa front-runner mitt romney has been dogged by criticism that he is not a true conservative on the issue of abortion, a new book contends that the former massachusetts governor tried unsuccessfully from discouraging a woman to terminate a president. i can't believe that a group of americans seem intent on bringing their own version of sharia law here in america. is there any real difference between the manner that sharia law penalizes women who are raped than this? the verdict may still be out on who will win iowa tomorrow, but one thing's for sure.

if any of these extremists win, women will lose. matt? >> keli, an outstanding debut rant for 2012. you know, i guess we just got a few seconds, but i guess the good news in all of this is, the iowa caucusgoers are something like 0.0004% of america, and it's the need to pander to this extreme that ends up forcing guys to take these positions. shamefully, i think. but forces them into these positions that americans wouldn't support. is that where we are? >> it is. and it's interesting, because people forget that gay marriage is legal, you know, in iowa. so it's not as extreme as we're seeing come out of this caucus. but what is disturbing is these issues are not going to go away in the general election. and i think that that's the real issue of concern, that these conversations have started. once you open pandora's box, you can't close it again. and i think the anti-choice movement really smells an opportunity this year, and that's disturbing. >> it is disturbing. it's a function of the kind of bizarre elector